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Subject: Sim. Sports Horse Racing---Week1376
Posted by: Fletch
- [35348259] Thu, Apr 25, 2002, 09:50
Where is everyone? |
| 1 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Thu, Apr 25, 2002, 10:04
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Tending their roto leagues probably.
Only 10 horses going this week. Lost Court who has been hanging around the claiming ranks is 8/5* off a good performance last time, in a $25K claimer in E2 3405. 2-year-old of the week Telephoned Appeal is 19/1 (ouch) after a bad first outing in NJ 0907. AP Fappi is the 4/1* favourite in an allowance in Italy 6302. I need him to follow Nail Endangering up to the allowance class after her big 2nd allowance win last week.
I am afraid this could be it for Aces of Pete. When you go off at 15/1 in a $2000 maiden claimer (MN 4715) the game is about up.
Good luck to all.
Toral
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| 2 | Fletch
ID: 35348259
Thu, Apr 25, 2002, 13:00
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Ouch! Did you all read mikes new note? Possible recarding of all races, and no betting! OUCH! Was the new auction really worth all of the trouble it has caused?
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| 3 | Madman
ID: 3233813
Thu, Apr 25, 2002, 13:16
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My fault. I emailed Mike about a strange problem I had with one of my horses that I acquired in the auction last week. My guess is that he's had others inform him, as well. It is very strange that he didn't notice it until this week, however. The auction has been going on for awhile like this.
Was it worth it? I dunno. I like this format for the auction a lot better. It's much harder to get locked out of a horse in a given week, since you are allowed to bid at any time. Previously, the fact that you could only bid on 3 horses in a week was a real bummer.
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Regarding where I've been, I've just been busy. And zgreat's departure from the sim has dampened my enthusiasm some, I must say. We used to email quite a bit.
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BTW, I also emailed Mike about my betting problem, and it was totally my fault. Entered the wrong week number. Unbelievable. I checked and rechecked those bets, and couldn't see the problem. UGH. Felt like an idiot.
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| 4 | Fletch
ID: 35348259
Thu, Apr 25, 2002, 13:28
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Well, don't let zgreats departure dampen your enthusiasm buddy. He brought alot to the game, and he will leave for his own reasons. You, however have devoted a great deal of time to developing the SSS. Hands down the single greatest utility ever created. Zgreat brought alot to the game, and he will be missed by a heck of alot more people than wish to see him go. Point is, move on buddy. If he has decided to hang it up, then so be it. Don't let it effect you, because with Z our without. This is the greatest game going.
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| 5 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Thu, Apr 25, 2002, 22:48
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New race cards are up.
I got my horse into his original race -- large field, good turf -- unfortunately, he's the favorite . . . ugh.
At any rate, it made me realize that Mike still hasn't reset the minimum BP cost to acquiring a horse to 25 points . . !! . .
So, I just piped off yet ANOTHER email. He's gonna hate me . . .
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Fletch -- yeah, I know. But getting frequent emails from him about the sim kept my mind on the game. There's nothing like that to pull me back in at the moment. Plus, I'm just getting darned busy . . .
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| 6 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Thu, Apr 25, 2002, 23:03
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Anybody who's awake -- see if you want to get into the bidding for the 2-year-old Stephanieelizabeth #41501 in the auction. Current high bid $198,000.
Toral
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| 7 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Thu, Apr 25, 2002, 23:25
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Crap. It just closed, Toral.
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| 8 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Fri, Apr 26, 2002, 10:42
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recarded races? I don't think I even want to look.
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| 9 | Madman
ID: 3233813
Fri, Apr 26, 2002, 11:52
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Yep. And i don't think lobo13 pulled in the new race cards . . .
Good news is that no horse was kicked out of any races, so I don't think that there is really that big of a problem.
150 horses out of 1230 RACES . . .
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| 10 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Fri, Apr 26, 2002, 12:07
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I checked the 2 I was most interested in and they are still the same as before, same jocks and same posts. I seriously considered running Hero Grub in a stakes race this week as there were a number of dirt sprints available for mares tis week. I finally decided to just run an Allow in MO and entered race 2401. Drew the #1 post and top jock and 4/5 odds. There is one other 100+ horse in the field at 9/5 so it is not a sure win. I would really like to get a few open allowance wins and build some more endurance by stretching her out before going to stakes races. She has ran a 101 at 9f but her real strenth seems to be 6.5-8f. I'm hoping to stretch that to 9f consistently by the end of the summer.
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| 11 | cab
Donor
ID: 10318622
Fri, Apr 26, 2002, 21:53
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Has anyone bred a 2yo for the comp at GSR?...I bred one yesterday,Astle's Double...Stylish Century(Aus) x Integra(Aus) x Sir Dapper(Aus)...He/she cost 45 points...The name comes from a NZ cricketer who scored the fastest double century in cricket ever, earlier this year :)...Another breeding yesterday was Rythm x Storm Bird x Carson City (Song Bird City,hopefully)....I blew just over 600 pts on this one!...
As far as the races go this week, I am having a tough time finding decent spots for my charges...I entered Clam Carnival(7213) and Bee stacking(1615) in Stakes races , where they dont really belong...Also have a number of others who will probably struggle...Having less time nowadays certainly doesn't help...
Anyhow, good luck with all your horses this week!
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| 12 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 333301418
Fri, Apr 26, 2002, 22:34
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I have too many 2 year olds already so I am passing on the Aussie competition. I have one 2yo by Flying Spur(AUS) but the others aren't AUS and I have already raced him anyway.
If odds mean anything I should have a good week (unfortunately my weeks with the best odds usually are my worst weeks).
Seems the MO tipster has dissed Hero Grub picking her to only place. Hah! We'll show him!
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| 13 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Apr 27, 2002, 13:45
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Strange week for me. 13 races in my main 4 barns, 4 wins, 2 places, 3 shows, 1 4th, 1 5th . . . 11 out of 13 in top 5??? Holy . . . and Joe's Machine finished 6th. Only downer was $150K claimer, Sky Popping, with 9th.
Secret Society is BACK! Well, mostly. 96.4 from my homebred. I was really getting worried about him. Still not sure how useful he'll be, but as long as he smells top 3 most of the time, I'll hang on to this guy. My first-ever homebred, you can't give up on these guys. Maybe someday he'll break 100.
Maximum Prospect didn't break his maiden in the 2K claimer. Hmmm. 63.2. Now, I have to figure out what to do next with this guy. I was trying to get another 2K starter tag horse. . .
Sal At the Bell rebounded a bit with 3 weeks rest. Going to do that again, I think. Finished 2nd in an A4L race. Not totally back yet, but getting there.
King North with a same-track 3rd. Need to get this guy going closer to 1 mile . . .
Tsultress with a disappointing run. Going to have to back off on her, too, I think. 5th place, her worst ever for me. I guess if that's the worst your horse ever does, I'll take it.
Private Count with a reasonably exciting A*420 win! Her 3rd Allowance win. Low, low purse, of course.
Autumn Dancer looks like a STEAL. He just cruised home to an easy, easy win in an 8f 2.5K starter. Going to have 5 months of padding this guy's stats. . . Only 88.1. But NO competition.
Meteor Shower continued to take advantage of the 3 year old only starters . . . She is now 4-2-2-0-0-0 lifetime. Not bad for 25 points :):):)
Georgia Park continues to perform well. He's another one of my "second generation" starters -- horses that didn't have their starter tags wear out. He cranked a 98.1 for an easy 9f win.
I was thinking that this second generation was weaker than the first. But seeing Autumn Dancer and Georgia Park and King North and Meteor Shower and Ms. Secretive hit the board week after week . . . I think this group of starters might be BETTER overall in terms of ITM finishes than my first generation of Tow's Terms, Light Jupiter, Jericho Velvet, etc. But I don't think there are any horses in this second-generation that are going to lay down 105+'s like those guys did. The competition is just weaker.
The only horse I could even POSSIBLY lose is Maximum Prospect. So there will likely be little news of note on the claiming front. I only put in a bid for one barn (madman4). Some good nags that I bid for, we'll see if I can get them.
Hmmm. 10-12 in non-claimers. Not bad. But why am I somewhat disappointed?
I am still not any closer to finding that magic horse that is going to get me my first Graded victory . . . in fact, with little stable turnover and with my 2 year old homebreds crashing, I'm really not sure how I'm going to find that horse.
But, weeks like this will rack up the BP. And I noticed that the breeding frenzy has started to die down a bit. In a couple of weeks I'll be able to breed some of my 2000 points in rotciv, 1300 in Madman999, etc.
You know what's scary? Madman999 bred a Polish Numbers x Forty Niner x Sword Dance AND a Summer Squall x Red Ransom x Woodman. And it STILL has 1300 points in the bank. I just bought a $1 horse at auction, so I know who my first cut will be. I also have Zarb's Pass and Miswaki Music that are sim-fodder. Although I can't bring myself to breed over the pathetic Miswaki Music. Worst homebred ever created. One of the more expensive. 200+ points, back in the day, used to be a lot!!
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| 14 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Apr 27, 2002, 13:46
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One more down note -- no 100+ speed performers in my 4 stables. Sigh. Not going to get a streak going this way . . .
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| 15 | Fletch
ID: 113181915
Sat, Apr 27, 2002, 18:07
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| Stable | Races | Wins | Places | Shows | $ earned | Pts earned |
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| cab | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | $3,600 | 13 | | cab31 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | $2,560 | 29 | | pepe31 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 | 0 | | bacup | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $655 | 3 | | cab35 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | $3,388 | 18 | | madman999 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | $7,296 | 23 | | madman3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | $22,401 | 48 | | madman4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | $12,130 | 43 | | rotciv | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 | 0 | | stlcards | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | $10,815 | 27 | | stlcards1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | $11,220 | 25 | | stlcards2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 | 2 | | stlcards3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | $2,912 | 8 | | devil01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 | 0 | | toral | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 | 2 | | larot | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | $1,492 | 40 | | toral2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 | 0 | | toral6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | $12,960 | 33 | | ggnew | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | $4,807 | 45 | | glkfarms | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | $2,498 | 50 | | fletchfarm | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | $6,650 | 20 | | ffarm | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | $4,012 | 29 | | flfarm | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 | 0 | | flefarm | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $2,820 | 12 | | fletfarm | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | $8,976 | 33 | | clairefarm | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | $10,913 | 46 |
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| 16 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, Apr 27, 2002, 19:07
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Well, I am hereby proclaiming this a good week in the sim for myself. I kept Maximum Prospect, and he came back to the barn Sharp!
Furthermore, the luck of Madman4 continues, I think. I acquired Silence in Skogby. This pick reminds me a lot of Tsultress . . . a homebred that people gave up on too early. Silence in Skogby is Sunday Silence x Seattle Dancer x Raise a Native. Pretty good breeding for $15K.
This horse broke his maiden around this time last year in 80.7 as a 3-year old. Not super. But since then he's gone 90 4 times in 23 tries. Most importantly, the reason I acquired him and the reason he's a can't miss prospect for the short term -- he's got a 2,500 tag until week 1509. rattlesnak was one of his previous owners, and he was abusing him for whatever reason, so many of his recent performances aren't great.
Nevertheless, I'm counting on this horse being able to hit low 90's consistently in any turf-sprints. The big catch is that there aren't too many very-low tag turf-sprints carded. DC has a bunch at 2K . . . which this horse just misses. I'm going to have to plan this guy out.
Nevertheless, I was happy with the pickup. Didn't get my top 2 claimers from this week, but this will do.
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Sal at the Bell came back to the barn "needs rest". Toral, you've convinced me. I'm going to start putting my horses on 3 week cycles rather than 2 weeks. I doubt the "Layoff!" condition can be avoided this way, but hopefully I can squeek a few speed points out of my better runners. I figure I will try this strategy with all of my 100+ capable runners for awhile and see how it goes. Sal at the Bell is going to get a longer layoff; Private Count 3 weeks, Jericho Velvet will go this week but then get 3 weeks rest, Val's Desert will especially need the rest because he has to start being able to hit 105 regularly to compete in the extremely short sprints. Tow's Terms is still Layoff!, so that doesn't matter. Light Jupiter will go this week, but then get the special treatment. Georgia Park went 98 recently, and has gone 109, so I'll put him on the "special treatment" . . . etc.
It will be interesting to see how this works. I'll even put Tsultress on the special treatment to see if I can get her into the mid 90's with it.
My pure starter tag runners, however, will remain on a "race them as much as possible" schedule.
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| 17 | cab
Donor
ID: 10318622
Sat, Apr 27, 2002, 23:20
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It's official!...I am in a form slump!...5/16 itm hurts...What worries more than that though,is that the horses that finished out of the money , never looked like getting anywhere...Usually, i can find something encouraging about the way they run and get them into the first five or six...Not today...i guess i am just going to have to bite the bullet and feed them to the lions , and hit the claiming ranks...
That's a nifty wee thing on the claiming tag, having what week the horse ran for its starter tag is a very handy thing to have in front of you...
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| 18 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sun, Apr 28, 2002, 01:13
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cab -- yeah. :( Seems like I am losing all of my personal comparative advantages. I've been looking at that data on ALL the claimers for quite some time now. :) Still pretty cool. Very similar to what I do on the SSS . . .
Regarding your form slump, I was just looking at the GSR standings and noticed that you were a bit off this week. Honestly, we all go through them. Until this week, I had been getting creamed, it seemed like. Madman4 was really starting to take a hit.
What to do? For various reasons, I don't have access to the SSS at the moment, so this will all be in general.
a) I am becoming more and more convinced that horses hit form slumps; since most of your scoring comes from a subset of your 40 horses, this can have a dramatic impact on stable ITM rates.
b) There is no substitute for stable turnover. I have never regretted losing any horse that I have lost thus-far. Each empty stable slot is an opportunity to pick up another starter horse. This effect will be BIGGER now, since starters will be weaker races and since you only get to keep your horses for 6 months with the tag.
Horses that can go 90-100 are the WORST horses to own in this game, IMO. Unfortunately, they are also the horses that we, as relatively young stables, are all acquiring.
We have two choices. We can either go 100% for bargain basement claiming stables like DrPhil, or we can do the best we can and hope to squeek out a Stakes race every so often. You've done more of the Stakes thing than me, so you know the cool part of the strategy pretty well :) :).
If you do the bargain basement thing, you're going to be cycling ALL your horses all the time.
But if you are like us, then we actually try to get a lot of our horses to compete in allowance races. Frequently, we outsmart the sim and can capture horses that can win a few allowance runs. Sometimes, we bomb and it is ugly. Either way, we are trying to push the envelope.
Another thing to bear in mind is that there *IS* a large random and/or form-cycle component to horse performance. Speed ratings +/- 20 points are very possible for some horses. Some are more reliable than others.
However, whenever I've hit a form-cycle down-spell for my entire barns that lasted 4 weeks or so (and I've hit this twice, basically, IIRC), I always end up re-evaluating my strategy. 1 week isn't enough. But two complete sets of all your horses running, and you've got a problem.
The last major change in strategy was big-time for me. I quit going for claimers, and started to re-tool my stables. I'm now planning on getting 33% of my starter horses from my OWN HOMEBREDS. I figure this tactic will last through July. Furthermore, I've been weeding out the horses that I think cannot win in open allowances, or CPU restricted. There are a few horses in my barns that don't been those restrictions, but long term I've got to figure out a way to get them out of there (Carolina Era, Agriculture Bomber, etc.). Lastly, my starter horses were having trouble making the jump to non-starter races. => more rest for Jericho Velvet, Light Jupiter, etc., as described in my previous post.
I dunno. If I were you, I'd just try to stay out of the bottom 5 of Division 1. Assuming Toral keeps kicking arse in Division 2, and assuming I don't fall apart, we should be that much closer to making GSR a "Gurupie Stable" contest :). Gotta get StLCards up and going with it, and we'd have a full slate.
One thing that is reasonably cool about this game is that it is in a continual state of flux. Constant adaptation is required, I think.
One last comment, not to brag, but I noticed Madman4 was in the top 20 Sim Stables for ITM (Top 5) with more than 50 races. :) Got that off the stable stats page . . . rotciv wasn't far behind. I didn't look for you guys yet. Probably right up there, too.
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| 19 | Fletch
ID: 113181915
Sun, Apr 28, 2002, 11:00
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I have a few different examples of the more drastic side of form changes. Fletch's Fury is a homebred of mine who literally takes every other race off! As long as I know this, I can libe with it. Some of the horses out there have very subtle form changes. I think wahoo was doing an experiment way back when, when the sim files were the rage. It was monitoring his horse via an excel graph, and he was pinpointing where and when his horse was on an upswing, or a downswing. This typifies real life, but I don't know what a programming nightmare that would have been for Mike. Hang in there Cab. Your time will come back around, and all the rest of us will have our down times. The real problem I have when I am going throught a bad time is justifying the amount of time spent playing this game, only to watch my entire lot bring up the rear. On a side note, I was pretty disappointed yesterday with 7 4th place finishes. I attribute all of those entirely to the jocks I have selected, so I went through today and cleaned up shop. All new jocks for me :).
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| 20 | cab
Donor
ID: 10318622
Mon, Apr 29, 2002, 06:47
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Thanks for the advice Madman and Fletch...It is actually since i joined GSR that the form has deterioted!...I do intend to try and stay in the first division!...I also intend to go into "turnover" mode with at least half the horses i have...The likes of Explosive Miner,Voyage Grimacing,Fourth Bingo,Western Plus Oak etc...Also most of the 3yo's i have bred...
Couldn't agree more about the 90-100 speed horses Madman ,unless they have a starter tag which enables more versatility...The only ones that can compete with these speeds, consistently , are horses that can go 12f and longer , i believe...
I guess it is a matter of trying to find the right races for the others and keep on trying!
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| 21 | cab
Donor
ID: 10318622
Mon, Apr 29, 2002, 06:54
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Oh yeah my 2 new home-breds arrived today :)...
Song Bird City (Rhythm x Storm Bird x Carson City), a 2yo male with a 5 mil cpu and...He's RTG so he will be running this week...
Astle's Double(Stylish Century x Integra x Sir Dapper) a 2yo filly...cpu value 91k...
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| 22 | Madman
ID: 3233813
Mon, Apr 29, 2002, 10:51
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cab -- yep, 12f+ horses can be slower. I.e., Tsultress in my barns.
But pretty much anything under 9f, and that sort of horse is toast.
fletch -- actually, I don't think programming a form-cycle would be very hard at all. Simply add one more variable to the race program that is cyclically related to the week #. That would be easiest. Failing that, keep track of this term and make it positively correlated from one week to the next.
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| 23 | Fletch
ID: 363282518
Mon, Apr 29, 2002, 11:06
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Hey madman. A couple of things. #1 is zgreat back? I noticed a couple of his ponies were run over the weekend. And also, dod you notice that a couple of the gaz stables had runners?
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| 24 | Fletch
ID: 363282518
Mon, Apr 29, 2002, 11:08
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Oops. Disregard. I must not have pluged the 276 in the SSS. Never mind.
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| 25 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Mon, Apr 29, 2002, 12:52
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I was without phone/ISP service all weekend thanks to a storm so had to wait until I got back to work to check the races. Hero Grub won easily in a 8f dirt Allowance in MO posting another 100+ performance. Rich Wine a 7.5K claimer I picked up last year is rounding into form with her second consecutive 104SP performance and 2nd consecutive win. It was a restricted allowance All *530, but I'll take it. Dusty Colony managed to find a 4 horse race and stole a win with an 82SP on good dirt at 8.5f. My homebred (now a 3yo) Show Me The Green ran a nice race, coming up just short in a 9f NW1x dirt allowance. Got 2nd running an 85SP and was closing at the end.
Moved up in division 4 GSR and only a few spots away from the top5. When does the first leg end? I assume I need to be in the top5 at the end to move up to division 3? I'm trying not too let that dictate my race entries, but if I am close near the end I may alter my strategy a bit. I have a few more horses I've deemed ready for claimers now. Unfortunately I have a few horses on lay-off now too.
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| 26 | Madman
ID: 3233813
Mon, Apr 29, 2002, 12:55
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StlCards -- Top 5 in the division after the last week of races in June. Longway to go, still. Jan-Feb-Mar is one competition period, April-May-June is the second, etc. 3 months each.
Congrats on a couple of good runners this week. Given the difficult competition in allowance races, a *530 is nothing to be ashamed of!
Hero Grub is starting to become a force, it would appear :). Pretty cool.
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