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Subject: Sim. Sports Horse Racing -- Week 1040 News
Posted by: Toral
- [1418917] Wed, May 23, 20:51
The excitement will be uncontrollable in Pennsylvania as Hollow Carson is the 3-2 second favourite for the larot stable in a 5-horse field in this track-restricted $7500 claimer. Hollow is 0 for 4 in sprints and 'twill be interesting to see if jockey Goganious can make Hollow perform in the slop. The 8-5 favourite also gets the track's dominant jock, Q. Miller. |
| 1 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Wed, May 23, 21:44
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Madman stables is proud (sort of) to put a fine product on the track for week 1040 . . .
We start off with the most accomplished Madman horse, Zinc Dad (Rotciv), who brings a perfect record back to the North Florida track that saw him cruise to easy victory in week 1019. Rememberances of glory past may not be enough for this aging horse as he squares off in the 7th against some of North Florida's finest. At 48/1 odds, the betting is heavy against him. Madman's just waiting until he gets that 5th race so he'll qualify for Allowance*70 races . . . Until then, expect to see him experiment around in distances. This is his first shot at 6f. Look for an 84 speed, and a 6th place finish.
In the 3rd in Wyoming, Rakida's Plug (Madman3) is set to test his ability at the short sprints. Odds are 11/1 against, and there are some quality opponents. However, any potential bettors should know that Rakida was at 95% last race with his 79, and in the two weeks since has gotten Sharp. Rakida goes under V. Gannon, an accomplished jockey. Look for him to outperform the odds, although this may not be enough to place in this evenly matched race.
One of the most interesting races on the card will be down in Tasmania in the 6th where Majestic Yodel will be an 11/1 underdog, despite being under the track's most prolific jockey, Deacon. According to local reports, oddsmakers are betting heavily that Yodel's 37 speed over 10f on turf indicates that she can't sprint on dirt. If you agree, then this is one filly to stay away from. However, according to her trainer, Madman, Yodel is a dirt sprinter -- the shorter the better, with several 80+ speed performances on the main track. We'll see.
After a couple of nondescript races for Stinky the Urban (stretching to 7f on her way up the distance ladder in the 2nd in state 27) and Burnt Cash(ire) going at 8.5f on the dirt at 37/1 odds (ahem), we come to Diver J. B. returning to the Kansas track in a 9f race. He'll be under Buchholtz. Despite sage advice from Buckpasser on the Iago forum, Madman is worried that Diver just doesn't have the ability to go above 8.5f. His history at 10f is disappointing. The odds at 8/1 against are attractive here. And Diver J.B. snuck a neat little 2nd place in Wisconsin a couple of weeks ago. But his trainer says he's been raced heavily, and he seems nervous when talking about this horse's chances, so I recommend staying away.
Babified Opposum (#3) takes on a short field in the 9th in Wisconsin (4209). This is one of the most remarkable fields ever assembled in a race in the sim. Three horses are at 7/2, 3 at 5/1 (included Babified), and 1 at 7/1. No real underdogs, no real favorites. What makes this even more remarkable is that this is Babified's first route attempt in 18 starts in the sim. In such a tight race, the jockey may make all the difference, and Babified goes under Capper, the second highest winning jockey this year in Wisconsin.
Finally, the lone Madman favorite, the $1106 claimer that has already returned $1468 and 17 breed points to his buyer -- Jinx Understand. He's available for $4000 in the 10th in Iowa, and you may want to take a look at this nag, for betting or for buying. He's the 3/1 favorite, although Extremely waste (7/2) and Pumpkin Girl (4/1) are right behind. Dedicated Roo comes in at 5/1 under the State's top jockey, but Marts isn't far behind, giving Jinxie a chance to really reward his owner.
Well, that's all for today from Madman stables. This handicapper is calling it like this:
8 races, 1 win, 1 place, 2 shows, 1 4th, 0 5th, 3 also rans (Zinc, Stinky, Burnt).
Wagering has begun!
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| 2 | cab
ID: 64232320
Wed, May 23, 22:38
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The Clam has made it into the Prince Aquarian challenge...
Heres how i see it...
#1..Lost Kingdom..14/1..Has been running sprint races last 5 starts with limited success..Stepping up to 8f for first time in a while...1 try at routes so far without a placing...
#2..Irish Tango(Fr)..9/2..After being tried at all sorts of distances in recent past stepped up with a sp # of 82 at last start over 8f(dirt)..The 3rd Fav has been tried mostly on turf and the owner would be expecting another improved performance running in the dirt in this race i would expect..
#3..Cat Storm..5/2..First race back since wk 984....Has yet to be proved at the dist.(0/2) but has won a lot of money in his career(214k)(as a 2yo?)...5 wins in 15 starts would indicate this guy is capable..
#4..Miss Frisky Bodega..54/1..Another who has been running in sprints recently with limited success...The owner testing her ability over the routes i suspect..
#5..Telephone Standing..4/5..Has top jock,Biago on board..deserved fav going on form with a couple of sp# in the 90's recently...Has won at 8f-dirt before(sp#92)but has run the last 5 consecutive weeks,a big factor against i think..
#6..Clam Carnival..5/1..My number 1 choice of jock, P Wright..19% winners this year and 49% ITM..The Clam loves the dirt (4-2-1-1) and has won at the dist.(81sp) Is coming into this race sharp so am expecting a good showing...Will the travel from Asia be a factor??..
My picks..
The Clam(well i gotta don't i??!!)5/1
Storm Cat 5/2
Irish Tango 9/2
(boy i hope i haven't put the voodoo on him after writing this..lol)
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| 3 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Wed, May 23, 23:27
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French Iron, the 6yo mare, running out of the stlcards stable will be running his third 5.5f sprint. He is going out at a poor 15/1, but against this very mediocre field may come in the money if the number 2 jockey Habib has his way. Running from the number 9post in this 11 horse race (1040.2408) may be a disadvantage and their is a well rested 4yo homebred running from the middle. Look for a possible show as this horse is racing sharp for the first time.
Five American from the brand new stlcards3 stable. Well, let's just say the jockey says it all, W. Mercy. This horse will be begging for mercy before this turf race is over. Racing at Logchamp Five American is a Longshot at 45/1. First time out and not much is expected from this 7yo.
Long Foot from stlcards3 going out at 18/1 in this 9 horse 7f MSW race. A 70SP probably wins this race, but not likely to be had by Long Foot starting from the #9 position with a poor jock. First race, so we'll see a bit of what we have in this 4yo.
Dusty Colony out of the stlcards1 stable is going out tied as the favorite at 4/1 odds in race 1040.2208. Once again stlcards can't buy a break and draws the #13 post in this MSW 6.5f event. The #12 horse is also 4/1, with Storm Bird and Lyphard in the sire, dam-sire line. Another horse to watch is post #2 Chief Rule (progeny of Madman's favorite Miswaki), with the top jock going out at 6/1. At the #1 post position is Emily's Wish at 5/1. Looks like a race from the outside and the inside. Here's hoping the #4 jock is better than his name implies, Wimpy.
Country Jodie, 1040.1601, once again an outside post, (why every time?) at #13/14 mounted by the #2 jock. AT 6/1 this 5yo mare is the #3 pick. The favorite has run 87 and 81 at 7.5f, but this is a big drop to 5.5f. Could have a decent chance, but from the outside and being only RTG, her owner will be happy to finish anywhere in the money.
Country Water will be getting his feet wet in a 6f MSW in MN. Gets the #2 post, but won't help him too much I'm afraid. Going out at 22/1 doesn't look to favorable.
Good luck everybody.
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| 4 | cab
ID: 64232320
Thu, May 24, 00:13
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I just looked at the owner of Telephone Standing...(it is in fact going to be this horse's 7th week racing on end)anyhow,every horse in his stable ,he seems to race whenever they are RTG(surely they wouldn't be sharp, would they?),more often than not 3 0r 4 wks on end and with a certain amount of success i might add...40-6-5-4...
Will he wear them down sooner rather than later?..Is it just good placement?..Maybe it's not a bad strategy to just keep sending them to the track???..I would've thought they would do bigger and better things if they had a rest every now and then though?
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| 5 | cab
ID: 64232320
Thu, May 24, 00:26
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The owner is boonee49 btw...
Maybe i should re-evaluate my picks and put him in there!!
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| 6 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Thu, May 24, 00:56
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StLCards Wow. Not only have you drawn in to the race (7212), but you're going to place! Man. . .
Who can win this race? Cat Storm is coming off an injury. Can he run 8f? Well, he's tried twice. First attempt was an uninspired 4th in 66.5. The second try was on a sloppy track -- the same conditions in which he got hurt. He ran a 69.8 -- because of the slop or because of the distance? There's just no way to know. I don't think he's a lock, however.
Irish Tango(FR), has run only one successful race -- 8f in week 1026. The MSW victory was an uninspired 69. Is this there is no evidence that he's better on dirt than turf . . .
Telephone Standing. Good grief. He'll fade at the critical time. If not, I'm going to destroy this sim with bad PR.
Lost Kingdom -- no threat here. A slim chance that he's improved a lot, but not much.
Conclusion:
I can't decide how certain I am, but Clam Carnival has the best shot at this race, I think. I always like first time claim runners. And the favorites both have weaknesses.
However, I'm not sure which way to bet. This isn't a sure-shot. I may go a few K on a win, and cover myself with a few K on a show. In a field this small, I'm not sure that a show bet is worth much . . .
Nice job at race placement, either way. We could have our first Gurupie Stakes Winner!
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| 7 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Thu, May 24, 00:57
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Oops. Sorry. I meant for that last message to be for cab. . . I still haven't checked out your races, StlCards. Sorry.
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| 8 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Thu, May 24, 09:36
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Wish I had a horse ready for a Stakes caliber race! Maybe down the line one will emerge. I'm resting alot of horses this week hoping to get one sharp for next week or the week after. Now with 3 stables it is easier to pace myself.
Good luck to cab this week! Bring us home a stakes winner. Guess I need to plunk some money down to show my support!
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| 9 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Thu, May 24, 14:19
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StLCards Looks like you've drawn into some interesting races. In French Iron's race, I'd be worried about #8. Just a hunch. FI should show, however. Not sure I'm going to bet on it. You've also got a number of close-to-call races. Dang. Betting is hard . . .
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| 10 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Thu, May 24, 14:34
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Madman - I agree betting on French Iron would be a bit risky. I think the #8 horse Will Iron will fall off based on its race last week where it ran a 13f race at a SP of 19. I think it would be tough to recover in one week from a race that long unless the 19 is a reflection of just dogging it at 90%, which I don't think so, since this looks like a new owner.
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| 11 | Toral
ID: 1418917
Thu, May 24, 14:47
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Toral stables cannot promise a fine quality racing product this week -- but our horses do intend to show up. As of the moment.
In the 4th in Pennsylvania, the disappointing Alywagon, who has never yet attained a Beyer over 66 in 3 routes, 2 on the turf and 1 on sloppy dirt, gets the slop again as a 14-1 shot. There is concern that the Wagon is not only losing races but wrecking his ability as a breeder (359 BP) if the official line about horses' records being considered in their homebred progeny is true. I'm a bit skeptical; sounds like Lysenkoism to me. But if the Wagon puts in a poor performance, fast dirt will be a must for the next time out. The favourite, Rare Form, has been in the money 7 times in 11 races and put up a Beyer as high as 91. Rare Form has disappointed at short odds before, however. His mud breeding should be good, and he has never tried an off track. A horse just looking for the right slot, or a horse that doesn't want to win? Father Poet and others suggest that there may be a fast pace to run at -- if the Wagon is a closer. At the moment it's not clear what kind of horse he is.
The 500 isn't the only racing going on in Indiana this week-end. In the 10th at Indiana, Away Without Way, a $10K claim pickup, runs for the Toral double-blue for the first time for the same tag at 9-1 odds. Her form would indicate to me that she probably has similar abilities in dirt routes to the horses going at 5-1 and 6-1 odds.
Earl Gal goes off at 34-1 in the 15th in New Hampshire after a long lay-off. This will be a sharpener up as Earl still hopes for improvement in later races when sharp while going longer.
Toral
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| 12 | Toral
ID: 1418917
Thu, May 24, 15:05
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Handicapping the Aquarian Challenge:
The owner of Telephone Standing either has only a few weeks to live and is trying to get the most out of them, or is trying to kill his horse. Like cab and Madman, I see the Phone failing to fire at the critical time, coming from behind.
Can Cat Storm go 8, is the next question. With a clear, unhampered lead, I say yes. Nothing certain about it.
Clam Carnival and Irish Tango likely duel just off pace but cannot cath up.
Cat Storm-Clam Carnival-Irish Tango. Not much money to be made here, but I'll place a small exacta and trifecta bet that way.
Good luck to the Clam.
Toral
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| 13 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Thu, May 24, 15:23
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Toral -- I'm 99% sure the Win/Loss record doesn't count directly. However, from 0 to 50% of a horse's ability comes from the sim horse used to breed it. Therefore, if Alywagon's poor W/L record reflects poor ability, then this will get transmitted to his progeny.
I've got this on pretty good authority from some of the big names who claim that Mike told them this.
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| 14 | cab
Donor
ID: 32432412
Fri, May 25, 14:01
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Cards...Did FI go all out last race or did you just send him round for the jog? I would say he has a pretty good chance myself...There wouldn't be a lot in that race that would scare me..I may just have a small wager on your horse!!
I agree Toral,Tri's may be the way to go...maybe box those 3 up....Only cost 6 bucks,or 60 or 600..lol depending how much you wanna spend...
Actually trifecta betting is my favourite...The payoffs are good usually...Darn hard to get though...
I've been searching around...Can't seem to find a dead cert to bet on yet...
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| 15 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Fri, May 25, 14:24
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cab,
I don't remember if FI was full out or not last time. Last time RTG this time Sharp. At some point we might have to set up a gurupie race.
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| 16 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Fri, May 25, 15:23
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Regarding betting, I don't see a lot either. I'm going to do a bunch of show bets, I think. I won't get the big payoffs. But show bets can still payoff reasonably well if the horse is a bit of a long shot to begin with . . .
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| 17 | Toral
ID: 1418917
Fri, May 25, 15:27
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My slop picks went one-for-three last week, so I made a small profit. My top pick placed at 7-1, which doesn't discourage me a lot.
So for this week....
1040.1201, #4, Sir Apple, 9-1. Equal units to win and place.
Buyer beware.
Toral
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| 18 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Fri, May 25, 17:06
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I put a few bets down. Need to find some more to recover money for stlcards stable. Last week I really screwed up and I'm not sure how I did it. Entered a non-winner horse into an allowance race (ouch) and that ended up shipping him from SC to AZ for the low price of $2160. Must have gotten my horse numbers mixed up somehow.
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| 19 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Fri, May 25, 18:37
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Geez. I am putting am mess down. Risk spread out over 20 bets. I went with a few tips from New Hampshire, the favorite in the Irish Stakes, a few show bets on my own horses, Toral's tips, French Iron Show bet, and 3 combo's on the Montana thing (if Telephone Standing wins, I'm going to be very, very screwed). I'm not sure this is optimal, but the most money I put down was in 1910 -- equal amounts on Jinx and Bee to show. I can't see any race scenario where they both get shutout. . . But as I said, that could be stupid on my part. Since I think both Jinx and Bee will finish top 3, then I should be fine. If they both bomb, I'm screwed. If one bombs and one succeeds, I will win a slight amount if #1 is the one who succeeds, I'll lose a slight amount if Jinx is the one who makes it (but, of course, I'll have his winnings). . .
As I said, maybe stupid. But the probability of them crashing into each other . . . .uh oh . . . Jinx! CRAP! That's his name! . . . . I wonder if I can undo the bets by going short. I.e., a negative amount on a horse . . .
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| 20 | Toral
ID: 1418917
Fri, May 25, 19:07
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Know how it feels, Cards. Somehow, one of my horses, Dan's Forest, ended up in England. That certainly wasn't in my plans! She's no turfer, so that probably means she goes to the auction block when I get to 20 races.
Toral
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| 21 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Fri, May 25, 20:43
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LOL Toral. At least mine didn't go transcontinental. I looked at your Toral2 stable and it looks like you have some very good lines, but a bit older horses. The best I can tell from the 3 you named is that you are trying 3 diffent sets of good lines and will breed the one that can get some wins. Not a bad stable to bet on either I would guess.
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| 22 | cab
Donor
ID: 32432412
Fri, May 25, 23:45
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Ok here goes...Maine..4511..L.Prospector...5/1...Has won once and placed twice in the slop in 12 starts...Puts in a good one every now and then an d the rest of the field don't have too much experience in the slop..Fav will take some beating though...good for a show at least..
(Buyer beware caveat applies here too!!)
Liked your article in the SRF Madman...
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| 23 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Fri, May 25, 23:59
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Yeah, cab, I was just going to post that I wrote it up. I went to the SRF to check out the opinion on Montana, and there wasn't any! So I whipped up something and sent it to Roy. . . it's even complete with my trade mark "not edited thoroughly" grammar! But I couldn't sit idly by and see the first Gurupie Stakes horse go unnoticed by the sim. . .
Just make sure Clam Carnival doesn't make me look like a Madman when I have to write up the recap :)
(BTW, I'm getting $7500 for this. That's a big chunk that should really help Madman4 stables . . . I'm putting in $20K of claimers, which means I can't bet at all for them this week . . . oh well. Some of the best bets of mine have come with my newer horses in maidens . . . Agri Bomber comes to mind :) ).
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| 24 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, May 26, 12:48
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A good week. Nothing super exceptional, but a good week.
We had our first Gurupie Stakes winner, Cab with Clam Carnival who launched a very impressive 95 speed figure. I can't remember who I decided to claim instead. But whoever it was isn't worth it. You have a winner, here, cab. For the record, my SRF article called the top 3 places in order. But unfortunately I only bet the exacta. Still a nice little payout, since I also be Clam to win and Irish Tango to place. But not the payout I would have had. The race played out 100% as called, with the exception of Lost Kingdom not being able to snag 4th from Telephone Standing.
Cab's Yankee Alphabet also broke his maiden with a nice 86 speed figure.
Toral got his first win -- a 15 point claimer from Away Without Way.
As for my three stables that had runners, rotciv went 1-0-1-0-1 with Babified Opposum finish dead last, either because of injury or something else. Diver J. B. set a career best 88 speed figure for 9f distance, making me get the hutzva to go up to 10f next time despite a lousy PP at that distance. Zinc Dad the 48/1 underdog, showed a lot of heart, cranking an 88 speed in his dirt sprint, good enough to capture 5th in a tough field. Of course, the big win came from Jinx Understand, good for 15 breed points. For the second race in a row, he came back a winner - - each time he won by less than a neck! ha.
Madman3 had an intriguing day. As predicted, Rakida's Plug hadn't been showing his stuff, but he was challenged today. He responded with a 91.2 speed rating, good for second in his allowance race (the ideal finish since it preserves his conditions). The bigger action was on the claiming front where I tried a new strategy. Since this stable is loaded with some cash, I went out and bought a couple of higher priced claimers. Straight Time a 4 yo filly has broken 90 twice and should prove to be a nice little mid-range runner. Alyrun Wing cost me 35K and 10 breeding points, but he's only used 1 allowance condition. I couldn't resist the breeding of Storm Bird x Alydar x Bold Bidder. Plus, he's a 4 time 90+ runner with serious off-track potential historically (his fastest run was a sloppy mile).
Madman4 only snagged one of the 4 claimers I applied for, and it was the weakest one. Dixon Queen was probably a mistake. a 3 yo homebred filly, she cost me $7.5K and 5 points. But she has Nureyev x Affirmed breeding (DDS is nothing to write home about). So I'm thinking she should be tried on turf where she might take off . . . If not, I'll look like a fool. Unfortunately, my other low-tag claims didn't come through. There were some good ones this week. I also regret not putting down a bid for Mighty Storm . . . sigh . . . He was on my list, but I just forgot to include him in my final cuts. . . After this week's winnings, maybe Madman999 can actually go out there and afford a decent claim or two. It needs it.
BTW, Rotciv's Jinx Understand didn't get claimed away. Actually, this is probably a good thing for now. Let's me pile up those breed points. He's snagged 30 of them in the last 3 weeks . . .
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| 25 | GoatLocker
ID: 44461114
Sat, May 26, 12:54
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Congrats Cab,
What a well ran race.
Didn't get a chance to bet it, and am now sorry about that.
Actually just spent the week watching.
Now to figure out how to place my horses for the upcoming week.
Cliff
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| 26 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, May 26, 13:28
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Oh, I almost forgot -- as encouragement to all you newbies, my first stable:
Madman999
Majestic Yodel finished a disappointing 5th in her Starter Allowance race down in Tasmania - - a 71 speed figure. There was some decent competition, but still. Maybe 4.5f is just a bit short for her.
Stinky the Urban is doing a bit better as she stretches it up. At 7f on dirt, she just logged a 71 speed, finishing 6th. Burnt Cash(ire) . . . Geez. At the last minute, I switched her from MC's to MSW's. . . WHY??? a 60 something speed . . . whatever.
At any rate, 3 more races, nothing in the money. My record is horrible with this stable, and I'm not sure what I can do about it. This stable has also been hurting in cash. Unlike Madman3 and Rotciv, this stable didn't have any winnings of note, so all that betting action I've been doing has been on a very small scale. . . It should break $100K in the bank this week. But it's been a very tough road. . . And going to get tougher with no prospects on the horizon. Even the blocked horse probably won't run that well. . . Although this stable has Light Jupiter. But just because he's my fastest horse, that doesn't say much . . . sigh . . .
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| 27 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Sat, May 26, 13:33
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Not such a great week. No races. I got killed in betting.
I grabbed 6 claimers across my 3 stables. All are low level sine my stable doesn't have much cash. Feel free to take a look.
jkaye1--37303, 23931, 13458
jkaye--16983
sunday89--11305, 24883
That makes 9 claims in 2 weeks. Starting next week, I'll really be able to start some success in this game. Light Award of jkaye should get unblocked and be ready to run by 1061 at the latest. In 2 weeks, I've grabbed many claimers that can pick up some breeding points and some much needed cash for my stables. Time to weed out horses who can't run 70 speeds, and start picking up points with some solid low level claimers who can run 70s and some 80s fairly consistently.
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| 28 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, May 26, 14:27
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Hmmm. Well I just realized I made a horrible mistake - - I made all my Madman999 bets while logged into Madman3 . . . sigh . . . This means that I put $61,950 down for Madman3, and got back $106,635. That sucks.
I made some serious mistakes betting-wise. I think the best way to make significant cash is to go for win bets only, or show bets from horses that are worse than 10-1 odds. I made too many low-return show bets. This is just a pain in the arse. . . I mean, I won a fair percentage of my bets. But many of them returned $3.40 for a $2.00 wager. You HAVE to win 60% with that to just break even. . . which I barely did on those types of bets.
Also, I'm never going to be an exacta again when I don't also bet for the horses to win or show directly. I had horse 4 in race 3806, but decided to go for the exacta play with horse 3. That's fine. But I should have also bet directly on horse 4. AARGH.
I'm not going to add up my bets for rotciv (should have only gained about $25K). This is depressing. It's just not worth my time entering all these hedge bets all over the place. Much better to go for it all, win or lose. This is my worst week of betting (probably $60 total payoff), and my most diversified. I even picked an $84 exacta, and this is all the return I get. Although you could make the argument that there was very little risk in the way I had my bets spread out, it just isn't nearly as fun as when you have it all on the line . . .
At any rate, for the 3rd week in a row, it was my bigger payoff win or exacta bets that earned me a profit and made the real difference. I think all the rest of this is just a waste of time. Perhaps wise in real life.
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| 29 | cab
Donor
ID: 32432412
Sat, May 26, 14:33
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Thanks for the congrats guys..
He far exceeded my hopes...running in the first 3 would've done me nicely but the win is fantastic!!
Great time too, 1.36 2/5...hopefully there is still room for some more improvement..
Didn't do too badly in the betting stakes as well...3k on the nose and got 50 bucks worth of the trifecta(forgot about taking an exacta bet!)..I had to bet within my means,unfortunately I'm not over endowed with dough at present,but this weeks winnings should help....
You did call it exactly right,Madman,well done,and i'm glad he didnt let you down!!and well done with your horses as well...Also congrats to Toral for getting your first winner!
A nice finish by FI too Cards...a win is just round the corner for him i would think...
A good days racing allround for gurupies...
The beers are on me!!It's 7.30am and i've just finished work but i think i may have one or two, to celebrate before i have a sleep! ;) cheers!!
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| 30 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, May 26, 17:49
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No stable updates today. We'll have to wait til tomorrow to see if our horses come back lame or healthy. And Toral and I axiously await our newborns. Will they have four hooves? Will they be groggy?
See you guys tomorrow.
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| 31 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Sat, May 26, 19:09
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congrats cab! That's one bet I should get something on anyway, although my bets don't show up yet. French Iron at least ran a 4th. Nobody else in my stables did much. It will be interesting to see their times when they come back. Put in for some claimers but don't see anything yet. Guess I have to wait for the stable updates.
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| 32 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sun, May 27, 00:12
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JKaye -- I think you have some useful little claimers there. The first and the last ones are basically just a 4K claimer type. Just get points. Like Jinx Understand.
Some of the others have had some real success historically. Note: I haven't looked at their breeding lines -- only historical performances. Profitable Royalty has gone 90+ at 8f on dirt before. It's clear that at least one time this was a good horse. Maple Cap has gone 85+ multiple times, and can succeed in the slop.
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| 33 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Sun, May 27, 01:34
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I realize now this game just doesn't like me. Didn't get my claimers, didn't win any races, and didn't do well betting. Guess I just need to put in for a bunch of claimers and run them alot to build up breeding points and earn some dough!
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| 34 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sun, May 27, 13:11
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I think there are three approaches to building a stable. I'm trying each of these with basically one stable.
1) Go for cheaper or older horses and try to accumulate breeding points.
2) Go for younger 3 yo's in your draft, and try to claim a few keeper or younger horses.
3) Go for the best 5 horses available, then go for the higher tier claimers after you have some cash.
Right now, 1) is clearly working best. I have 101 points right now, after having bred my bargain horse. 2) is totally bombing. Partly because I don't think my horses were good enough, but it is very hard to get enough good 3 yo's in the draft these days. 3) has been an interesting stable. Too early to tell if it will work. The obvious problem is that even if the horses are faster, then this doesn't mean that they will earn more points at all . . .
I'm beginning to think that you really want to find horses like Jinx Understand. He's consistently been between 69 and 72 speed. Furthermore, he's a not-so-well bred 5 year old Horse. Therefore, no one appears to be interested in acquiring him for the $4K tags I've been running him under. If you had a whole stable full of these types, you could earn 50-60 points per week, week in and week out. . . Tempting, eh?
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| 35 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Sun, May 27, 14:30
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I like your last paragraph Madman, because that is basically what I have done in the last 2 weeks regarding claimers. I have picked up several horses who run consistent speeds in the 70s when placed at the right distance. I've now got 7-9 horse stables full of capable runners who can earn points. And if one gets claimed, you can easily go out and get a similar horse at the same price.
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| 36 | cab
Donor
ID: 32432412
Sun, May 27, 15:15
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Well, I succumbed...I put in for another stable last night...I don't think i will have any horses sharp this week so i have to have some running this week!(so long as it arrives before wednesday)..
I went for mainly older horses this time,4 and 5yo's...I have far too many 3yo's in my other stables!
Still no updates of stables yet..
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| 37 | cab
Donor
ID: 32432412
Sun, May 27, 15:55
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Stables have been updated now...
Clam came back RTG..That race hasn't taken too much out of him it seems(hopefully)...cpu value took a leap..from 325k to 975k!
Pepi is sharp,,along with Rule in the burns and Amy donkey in the pepe stable..
One of my 2yo's has finally made it to rtg as well...racing in the next week or two i hope!
Hope everyone else's horses came back healthy and fit....
now to find some races for them...
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| 38 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sun, May 27, 18:34
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It looks like I'm going to have 12 runners next week . . .
Alyrun Wing has a CPU value of 1.1 million... my first 1mil+ CPU value. . . I think the CPU value reflects the speed ratings quite a bit. Plus maybe a bonus for in the money places. Clam is a serious horse, IMO. Not sure it's really graded stakes quality. But you shouldn't put it into the claiming ranks unless you can't find more "holes" for it to compete in.
The birthing process has taken it's toll in Rotciv stables. . . no new homebred yet. My other Gurupie Homebred, "Secret Society" is ready to hit the track. Maiden Claiming or MSW. . . Decisions, decision . . .
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| 39 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sun, May 27, 22:34
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My rotciv stables had a stillborn foal. We are all in shock at this tragic occurrence.
Congrats to City O' Gold in Toral stables who appeared to survive the birthing process, and is the top-rated Gurupie 2 year old.
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| 40 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Sun, May 27, 23:54
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Sorry to hear the news Madman. Must be that KY thing going around.
After resting several 3yo's last week the only ones that came back sharp were the two that raced this week at 100% (67SP and 68SP). Now I wonder if I really should race them again this week since they are sharp or should I just sit them for a couple of weeks? Sounds like the sim is tempting me to overwork these horses. Any ideas? I also have 2 horses still on Lay Off. One of these came up that way when I got the stable last week. I'm also confused about breeding points. French Iron came in 4th in a MSW, but I didn't get any breeding pts., like I thought I should.
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| 41 | cab
Donor
ID: 32432412
Mon, May 28, 00:35
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Cards...I think it may be the travel costs...It not only costs money to travel, it costs BP's if you go over 300 dollars...IT cost about 1200 bucks and 3 BP's to go from AZ to MO..am not sure how many BP's you get for 4th...
Am not sure about running them back to back..Yankee stayed sharp for 2 weeks,(he came up sharp after his first race but i gave him 2 weeks off)but this may have been a bit of luck...Madman or Toral are the one's to answer that question..
It seems that there were a few who had breeding problems Madman,going by the message boards...hopefully he will turn up soon for you..
More cigars being passed around huh!!...congrats Toral on the new addition to your family!!
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| 42 | cab
Donor
ID: 32432412
Mon, May 28, 07:45
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If you are looking for a race for a 3yo filly the obvious choice is to run her against 3yo's of the same sex....What is the next best choice?..Against 3yo's only (open)or fillies and mares,3yo+ ?
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| 43 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Mon, May 28, 10:56
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Thanks cab,
I hadn't realized I shipped him like that again. How can I be such an idiot. I search every race by travel cost from the last race, but somehow got confused again. I think I need to get a spreadsheet going to manage this. It gets pretty hard writing down all those numbers on pieces of paper.
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| 44 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Mon, May 28, 15:57
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Yeah, STL, it was the travel costs. $1280 to ship from AZ to MO, and 3 BP. You get 3 BP for 4th in an allowance race in a different state (allowance = MSW for the BP calculations).
I'd go 3 yo filly, 3 yo open, 3 yo+ Female, 3 yo+ open . . . in terms of increasing difficulty.
As to back to back 3yo races, it's a really tough call. I had a 3 yo turn up sharp in back to back races and he regressed to RTG status. It's up to you. You might get lucky and get a sharp twice in a row. In which case it's a good thing. But you may also regress to RTG, in which case it will be hard to get the horse sharp again . . .
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| 45 | Toral
ID: 1418917
Tue, May 29, 09:21
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Belated congrats to cab for the stakes win. After all the buildup, I was almost as excited in anticipation as if I were racing myself.
Congrats also to Madman for the brilliant SRF preview. You already know as much about the game (RL racing) as at least half of daily pro racing writers [newspapers and Form], write better than 85% of them, and are more analytical than 99.99999% of them (there may be an exception somewhere.) I find myself wondering...if you had come into the games before Beyer speed figures existed, would *you* instead have invented them? Quite possibly, although those were the days before big access to computers, and before complete race reporting; Beyer had to gather a lot of his info himself, and work it up by hand.
cab, one of the most hilarious accounts Beyer has ever written is his attempt to make a killing by bringing his Beyer method down under. As Beyer starts Chapter six of his book, "Beyer on Speed": "It was in a sleazy bar in a town called Alice that I first entertained the idea that would become an obsession: I wanted to become the greatest gambler in the Southern Hemisphere." It is a fascinating story. Beyer speed methods were unknown then down under, and race reporting was not as systematized as in the U.S. with the DRF. Problem: Beyer methods do not work well in turf racing, something he has acknowledged many times. Many times he has said that his own system as applied to turf racing is basically worthless. He only produces turf Beyer numbers now because he is paid to do so. Beyer got his newspaper to send him down there for six months of reporting. He thot he would make a killing off the benighted uninformed down under punters. He didn't quite get his cap handed to him, but only broke even (as he says, +$500 not including expenses.) His expenses would have been humongous, since as soon as he got there he ordered a year's back issues of every down under racing raper on microfiche.) He found that altho Aussie race reporting was not as good as America's, their betters were much more sophisticated, and were using computers and arbitrage betting long before the Yanks. To quote him, "When I arrived in Sydney, I thought of myself as a wise guy coming to a backward country. But after my first Saturday at Rosehill racecourse, I realized that the backward racing industry was the United States'".
But I digress.
Congrats to me for Away Without Way's victory. Every race I looked at on Saturday I had called wrong, and this Indiana event was the last. Before I looked at hers I was having that terrible sinking feeling, that I would never win a race. Thanx to her, and G Stephens who rode her beautifully. I also like my horse Hollow Carson, who only showed in Penn; but they seem to have cheap track-restricted claimers every 3 weeks or so; I think he can pile up a whole lot of BP. (With this info, no Gurupie claims please. But you may find other horses who can do the same thing....)
My stable now has a bouncing baby boy, Slew O'Gold! CPU value almost #3 mill -- to tempt me to auction him off. No way.
And yes, I would have loved the horse as much if it had been a girl.
Or tried to.
Toral
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