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Subject: SSHR: 1474
Posted by: StLCards
- Sustainer [426162014] Wed, Jul 31, 2002, 23:47
It looks like I'll have at least two wins this week. Erica Bark is a 1/9 favorite in a $15K claimer in OK this week and there are only 4 horses with none of the other 3 really having a chance. Tempting to start her at .90 and betting on the other 3 in a trifecta.
French Iron is at 5/1 in NY in a $40K 5 horse claimer race. No other horse has gone the distance yet, and I think the 1/9 favorite will fade.
Sixth Deputy is in a tough field and will have to run his best race to win his stakes race in Sweden (5213).
River of Gold Again is only going off at 4/1 but who really knows with these 2yo's? I'm keeping my fingers crossed on this one, but no sure thing.
Carnage Gal is the favorite to break her maiden in 7904 going off at 9/5. Only 1 other horse close to that.
Hopefully it will be a good week. Seems that a few didn't draw in this week. |
| 1 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Thu, Aug 01, 2002, 05:12
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Well, Meteor Shower is my entry into Fabman's Memorial Series. I probably should have geared Ms. Secretive for it, but, well, I didn't see it in time. Meteor Shower might be a dirt sprinter, so it might be geared for her. I think she has a good chance of winning this first race, although it really is wide open. She probably will be smoked in the Final -- if she makes it.
Jericho Velvet is in the e SEISMIC WAVE Special (5415). He won't win -- Ardal is in there. But if he can crank another 109, he can finish top 3, which would be cool by me. But he likes to fold in Stakes competition, so I'm not holding out hope.
Madman999 has three homebreds going -- Red Summer and Irish Green II, both at 7/1 in their respective maidens (5811 and 4404). As well as Ice Princess who cranked a cool 89 LTO in her first turf try (3 year old, however).
OTHER NOTES:
Sal At the Bell attempts to return to his 100+ ways in an A3x race.
Key West is testing her endurance at 14f. I don't think she has the ability to compete at the shorter stuff, so I went for this marathoner.
DDay is coming off two solid turf allowance runs for me, but I accidentally entered him in a dirt race. OOPS. Oh well. There's a chance he actually might compete well. I haven't personally tested him on a fast dirt track yet.
Well, that's about it. I'm not going to be around Friday - Sunday, so I may not watch races until late Sunday or Monday sometime. Haven't missed them for awhile, but I won't have my computer, so I won't be able to download their speed ratings, anyway.
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| 2 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 23730222
Sat, Aug 03, 2002, 12:59
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The StLCards stable had a perfect day. 3 races and 3 wins! Erica Bark (15K claimer) and French Iron (40K claimer) won in laughers, winning by 7+ lengths. Stolen Boundary had a nice surge to win from the middle of the pack down the backstretch (13.5K str allw). I start him at .60 every time and he seems to like that.
My other stables didn't fare so well. Sixth Deputy took a distant 3d in his stakes race, and River of Gold Again came in 3d in a close race. Also had a 5th and a last place finish.
Will probably loses Erica Bark since she has run 90SP's before and was a 1/9 favorite, but I was just tired of forcing her into races she was outclassed in. I doubt I will lose French Iron though at 40K since he just plods along at 68SP at any distance I start him at. He has worked out nicely for distance claim races on either surface.
It will be interesting to see what happens to the breeding costs now that the bonus pts are gone.
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| 3 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 23730222
Sun, Aug 04, 2002, 01:42
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Looks like I was right with the claims. Erica Bark is gone after winning her race with a 75SP. She should be easy to replace, but I always hate saying goodbye to an original stable horse. I don't have many left now. I did keep French Iron who only needed a 59 to win as he slowed up at the end.
River of Gold Again only came in 3d, but ran an 83SP. This week Blushing Niner gets to show her stuff.
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| 4 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sun, Aug 04, 2002, 21:13
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Looks like I chose the wrong stakes race, StlCards. Jericho Velvet cranked a 107.0, but that was only good enough for 4th. Geez. I guess this means that you really need to pay attention to the quality of the field.
Madman999 -- I'm very happy with the performances of its three homebreds. Ice Princess (3 year old filly) cranked a 90.4 over 8f on turf (3rd race ever) to win her maiden (purse of $23K). Irish Green II won his maiden with an 86.1 over 6.5f on dirt. He's a Green Desert progeny, so I don't know how far he'll be able to go; and he won by just a neck, so he was pushed. Nevertheless, an 86.1 speed for a 2 year old in August is quite good, I think. Finally have a horse that looks like he might be able to break 100 some day. Although 100 doesn't mean much in dirt sprints ... Red Summer didn't fare so well, but ran a 73.5 over 6.5f on dirt. That's off his 78 speed personal best, but not too bad. Can't win them all, and at least he placed (3rd).
Sal At the Bell is just not recovering from injury. I have no idea what his problem is -- ran a 92.3. I gotta think he's going to explode here soon.
DDay successfully survived her dirt experiment, as predicted -- 99.8. That's nice to see some surface versatility.
On another note, Alyrun Wing is about finished. He ran a 98.1, but can only compete in dirt sprints, and he hasn't placed forever. It may be time to use his breeding... that's the reason I've been hanging on to him for so freaking long.
With respect to acquiring claim horses, something is going terribly wrong. I had three open slots, and couldn't get a single horse in Madman999 yet again. I may have to start restricting my searching for claimers to same-track only. This is getting ridiculous. The good news is that all of the horses in that barn should have some potential to run (8 of them), so it's not an immediate concern. In fact, I probably will try to acquire a $1 horse this week and then breed a bargain baby to dump into a $2K claimer . . .
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| 5 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 23730222
Mon, Aug 05, 2002, 01:16
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The StLCards2 stable is welcoming Green Avenue to its barn this week. A 2yo colt out of Green Desert x Avenue of Flags x Medieval Man. Came into the sim world sharp so will get his first race this weekend. I was thinking turf, but seeing as how Irish Green II just won on dirt, I may have to go that route instead. I would concur that an 86SP for a 2yo now is pretty encouraging.
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| 6 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Mon, Aug 05, 2002, 02:03
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Stl Cards Your horse has a lot in common with my Val's Desert. He's a Green Desert x Medieval Man x Navajo (ID 19379). He can crank on either surface, but with a slight preference to dirt. I think this is typical of Green Desert progeny.
Green Desert in general is under-appreciated in the sim -- mainly because he almost never throws a horse that can go 10f. Who knows... But in the old breeding.txt file I used, out of 106 horses with 5 races, 90.6% had won at least one race, and 1 in 5 of the 85 that have been heavily raced have won at least one Stakes race. That is amazing.
Dirt average speed is a whopping 84.6 in sprints, 75.3 on turf. Both are good figures, with lots of attempts. Surprisingly, the average speed for 8 or 8.5f is 85.1 on dirt, 78.5 on turf -- even better. Those are world-class averages.
He starts to fall apart at 9f or higher; the average drops to 78, but not many owners even try -- only 22 attempts on dirt, 32 on turf (63.6 average there). 11+f is a joke, falling to 60.5 for a dirt average and 55.5 for turf. The proper way to interpret these pathetic averages is mainly that almost all the horses why try suck. The best speed rating is respectable -- a 108 at 11f, and a 105 at 9+. However, he excels at the short stuff, where the max is 123 in sprints, 117 over 8f.
He's a danged good sire, and if he's coupled with any horse with turf capability, he can go either way. You simply must try him on both surfaces before I'd limit where he goes. Unfortunately, turf sprints are hard to find. I'm not even sure right now where they are in the sim. I'd locate where the turf sprints are first, and then look for a dirt sprint close to it for his first try. Usually tracks card the same surfaces for maiden tries week after week.
BTW, I had crappy luck with Irish Green's first two races -- both on the slop. He MIGHT be even better on turf, hard to say. So don't read too much into his dirt success yet. Furthermore, the race was close, and I think he worked hard. He came back to the barn "needs rest", so that's exactly what he's going to get. Probably a good month rest, minimum, and more likely 6 weeks.
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| 7 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Mon, Aug 05, 2002, 02:12
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I wanted to get a comparison to the immortal Storm Cat ... My SSS took forever, but here are the numbers for Storm Cat on dirt and then for turf (sprints, mile, 9ish, 11+)
88.5, 86.6, 77.8, 65.5
74.3, 77.5, 73.2, 62.4
128, 129, 118, 112 are the maxes.
# of horses in each category are extremely high, although only 64 dirt marathon tries and 49 turf marathon tries.
Notice that Green Desert compares VERY favorably over 8-8.5f... He's SLIGHTLY worse on dirt, but slightly better on turf than Storm Cat through 9f. I am not kidding you. Those are the #'s. And given that no one buys a Storm Cat without putting together a solid Dam Side, and I call those boys equal through the sprints.
Storm Cat only has 89% maiden success, 70% with 1 allowance, 38.4 with 3+Allowances, 31.9% with a stake win and 9.8% with a group win. All in all, Storm Cat clearly brings a bit more class, but in terms of the odds of a decent runner, it's a toss-up, IMO, over shorter distances.
The maxes for Storm Cat are a bit higher across the board. But you can get Green Desert for 300+ points less than the nominal price for Storm Cat, not to mention the fact that I bet you still have to pay the 500 point penalty for locking Storm Cat up early.
Don't get me wrong, I'd rather have Storm Cat as a sire. But I'd rather have the 5 Green Desert horses than my single Storm Cat, any day of the week. Nothing would be worse than putting all your breeding into one horse and having it tank.
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| 8 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 23730222
Mon, Aug 05, 2002, 02:34
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Wow, Madman. Thanks. I will admit I was pleasantly surprised when I looked at some of Green Desert's progeny in the SSS as far as max speeds.
One reason I looked at him was
2YO Winning Sires
Rank Horse Races Wins ITM %
31 GREEN DESERT 102 19 38 18.62%
Didn't really fit as well with Avenue of Flags or Medieval Man as some of the better progeny, but there was signs of hope there so I jumped on it.
I just got all of my horses entered for the week. Hero Grub is going to try one more stakes race this week. Blushing Niner, 2yo filly is going to try for her 2nd win in two races this week and Ally's Logic, is going to try to find her form again.
I'm only entering horses that are sharp for now, even though some haven't run for a long time. Still have to go through and pick the jocks. I'm convinced that they make a huge difference.
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| 9 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 23730222
Mon, Aug 05, 2002, 02:39
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As far as claimers go, I haven't tried for any since the $2K selloff by that one dude. Even before that though, I was limiting myself to browsing only horses at tracks where I was racing. Figured that was the only real chance to get anything decent.
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| 10 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 23730222
Sat, Aug 10, 2002, 12:44
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My only bright spot today was Blushing Niner is now 2wins in 2 tries. Hero Grub is NOT a stakes caliber horse by any stretch of the imagination. Back to the Allowance ranks and hopefully she will regain form. Otherwise I had about 4 4ths and a 3d.
Forty Niner was available as a sire and I still had some breeding points so I bred over Stolen Boundary to get Forty Niner x Boundary x Our Native. Forty Niner and Our Native seem to work really well together and Stolen Boundary was a decent horse to start with, so I am hoping for a good 2yo (Native Niner).
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| 11 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 67879
Sat, Aug 10, 2002, 13:29
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Not a terrible week (1481) -- 3-1-3-1-1-3 in 12 races. Wins all from my relatively recent cheapclaim and auction pickups, my specialty now.
Congrats on getting Forty Niner, StLCards. I saw on the mb that he was open as a sire till late in the week. Larot still has 1938(!) BPs left. I am tired of breeding 2-year-olds and was thinking of just sitting on them till next year, but if there are late-week bargains available I'm certainly going to have to think of that.
2001 Gurupie Horse of the Year Kangaroo Minstrel managed to finish 2nd in a really cheap allowance. He may not be completely finished yet but it's sad watching this star struggle... I guess I'll have to sex-change him and use asd DS eventually.
I likewise only check the claimers at tracks I'm running at, and, if I am energetic, top these off with a few chosen from the bottom tracks in the circuit, where the odds are better.
Toral
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| 12 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sun, Aug 11, 2002, 00:13
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Madman999 just bred either Vigilante Justice or High Priestess, 60109, over $1 auction purchase, Daring Inferno(fr). Cost = 648 points, probably an all-time record for me, not 100% sure.
Deputy Minister x Gone West x Secretariat.
Lost all originality. This is the exact same breeding combo as Tabasco Wavering, fastest Deputy Minister horse so far (122 max speed rating). I've given up on trying to find my own combos.
After the 750 pt. breeding frenzy, there are some great sire combo's available reasonably cheap...
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Toral -- Geez. 25% wins, and it's "not terrible". Yeah. Whatever. That's pretty darned good. I can't remember the last time I've had a 3 win week, let alone in only 12 starts!
For my barns, Honey Bunny stole the show, winning the Claiming Jewel Spiked Heels, good for $36,000 take home cash (it was a $12.5K starter). As you would expect, Gaz's ex-horses did quite well in the claiming Jewel races ... Ms. Secretive put forth a good effort, but fell a bit short. I forgot to do jockeys this week, so this may have been an issue. She finished 3rd in the hotly contested Claiming Jewell -- The Steel Pony, 8.5f, 3yo+ open run. It was won by Stakes-turned-gaz-starter, Stiff Shipment... that's Stiff Shipment's 6th win in a row... he's gone 118.7, so you'd hope he could win a $5k starter! Ms. Secretive's 96.7 was her best effort thus far... I was hoping her ceiling might be a bit higher, but oh well. Going to get one more starter race out of her this month, if I'm lucky, then I'll give her a bit of time off and see if she can compete in allowances. Still my fastest 3 year old homebred.
Tsultress pulled down a $13K payday, as well, as she pulled in a second in a high purse turf marathon in Japan. The speed rating was a bit off, but I'll take the place. Coming off injuries always makes me nervous.
I lost Royal with Silver in a 35K claimer. Claiming races right now are absurd. Look at that horse's record. Why would you pick her up for $35K? Breeding? Maybe, but I've had bad luck using mares, especially mediocre ones like this. Silver Ghost isn't anything too special as a sire. Why waste the stable spot??? We'll see what the new owner does. Overall, good riddance.
I didn't have time to file claims this week. I have too many empty barn spots. I think I may go for some more $1 auction pickups and spend the rest of my breeding points in all my stables. Prices and available are good right now. In a few months, competition for sires will start to heat up with the end of the year and after people have had a chance to rebuild BP's in their barns...
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| 13 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sun, Aug 11, 2002, 20:07
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Homebred turned out to be High Priestess. Guess that's OK. I really wanted "Vigilante Justice" for a Deputy Minister x Gone West progeny, but I'll take a filly in that barn.
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| 14 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sun, Aug 11, 2002, 20:15
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Toral KM still ran a 99. Not bad on turf, but lack of enough older races probably means the competition is too tough right now . . .
On another note, have you noticed KM's start %ages? For 8.5f on turf...
45
42
28
39
47
43
49
36
30
29
48
What's interesting about this list? Well, it looks to me like the start% is kind of climbing lately (with the exception of the 28, which was probably optimal, but maybe something else happened). Last 7 starts all at 39% or higher; best race was at 36%.
Maybe giving the jockey a 30% setting would be a good idea??? Just a thought.
Or, maybe the change in start% is a sign that the horse is getting older and his optimal distance is getting shorter. . .
What also makes this weird is his explosion 108 was done with a 47% over 8f. Normally, the start% increases with distance, not the other way around.
I dunno. Longshot. But it might be worth experimenting with. I'd recommend trying 7f first. Then 8.5f with jockey select (to see if different distance is enough to shake things up). Then 8.5f or 8.0 with 30% setting. At least it gives you some ideas if you are pounding your head...
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| 15 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 23730222
Sun, Aug 11, 2002, 20:23
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Native Niner, 2yo colt for me. Most of my well bred homebreeds have been fillys so I'm happy to have a colt.
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| 16 | Lyndee
ID: 5574830
Wed, Aug 03, 2011, 01:48
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I feel satifised after reading that one.
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