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Subject: Sim Sports Horse Racing -- Week 1061
Posted by: Madman
- [29246911] Wed, Jun 13, 23:01
I suppose that races will indeed be carded here at some point. It will be interesting to see when . . . Oh well. I guess that's the advantage of a SIM over a real-life based fantasy game. This sort ofthing doesn't have the potential to actually change the outcome of the game. Whereas when SW screws up . . . |
| 1 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Wed, Jun 13, 23:38
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Nevermind Races just got posted. Going to be a long week for Madman stables, sigh.
The Madman entries:
Private Count, 0603, #14, 2/1 favorite Whoa. Where did those odds come from. There's a 5/1 shot with a faster speed over a dirt sprint. Does the computer know something I don't? Coming from the outside isn't good.
Drunken Badger, 6211, #9 of 11, 21/1 predicted to finish LAST! There's a horse with a 45 speed over a similar distance in the same race that has better odds. WTF??? Once again, I think the computer knows something about this horse's preferences. Like I may have hit it with Private Count, I'm missing it here?? This will be interesting.
Zinc Dad, 2107, #7 of 14, 26/1 For this poor guy's second in a row, he's coming in at ridiculous odds. Frankly, I'm not sure why this time. First route race, and it's on turf. But he did run an 88 speed. The computer betting obviously doesn't think Zinc here can handle the distance. But I had to try. I've got to get this guy another win. He went 2/2 in his first two races. C'mon Zinc, I've got a soft-spot in my heart for you. You had my first (and still best) allowance win.
Snow Storm, 4404, #1 of 6, 9/2 Good odds, but with the short field, 3 horses are in front of him. I don't expect much, mainly because all my 2 yo's suck. I see no reason why this should be an exception. His Dam-side is loaded with serious stamina, so he's gonna be a late bloomer. But this field is weak. It will be interesting.
Agriculture Bomber, 3410, #4, 7/1 First time at 10f, he hopes to turn around a series of decreasing speed times. If he can handle 10f, this would be a great bonus to my stables. If not, this guy just isn't going to make it. This is a big race for him. The co-favorites are both very weak. Unfortunately, the race is wideopen for the remaining horses, so I don't see a betting opportunity here.
Rakida's Plug, 4303, 6/1 6f on sloppy dirt, #10 out of 10. Can he run in the slop? We shall see, eh? We shall see. I hate slop.
Now we have the usual mess of 3 yo's all in MSW races.
Burnt Cash, 27/1, 9f Dirt, 4401 Getting better odds as getting longer. Yipee. Maiden claimers after this one for Burnt.
Well Bert, 19/1 5.5fD, 0214, #7 A Well DecoratedxYouth progeny, this is his first race. The poor odds reflect some good quality horses in the field. Hopefully it doesn't also reflect poorly on Well Bert's ability. Crossing fingers here. Madman999 needs another quality runner -- desperately.
Manta Until Stones, 27/1, 8fD-good, 3107, #10 Another off track. Sigh. Manta's gotten better as I've stretched it out, so I was hoping . . .
Stinky the Urban, #1 of 14, 12/1, 2902, 5.5f Interesting. Went for the shorter sprints to test this guy's speed. Not a lot of hope. But the odds could be worse.
There we have it. 10 horses going at it this week! No favorites, and few predicted even to show. Sigh. The pain of a new stable. Am I doing something wrong?
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| 2 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 1418917
Thu, Jun 14, 03:44
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Madman: According to the instructions, race cards will be known late Wednesday or Thursday. No screw-ups here; we've gotten used to quick performances from this free sim.
Nevertheless, while I was waiting for the card to come up, I sat down and made a prediction of the odds my horses would go off at. (This is a strange week for the Toral Multicomplex; I have entered 14 horses and could well go 0-for-14, without being too disturbed; almost all horses I have entered are in one way or another being prepped for future events. Events of all kinds ranging from stakes races to being put down....)
Anyway, my personal advance note odds predictions (no formula), and the eventual odds....(I haven't checked out the full cards yet to see what I think of the horses' *chances* in any given race, and I didn't know what races they would even get into, so this is very unscientific.) Horse player's judgment.
Mine Devastation, what I think is my best 3-year old, although the CPU doesn't think so. My guess: 8-1. Odds in Vermont 1061.3706: 8-1. Bang on.
Earl Gal. Should probably be in MCs by now, but I wanted to give him one more chance in MSW, at a distance, first. I am weak-minded. My guess: 22-1. Odds in New Jersey 1061.0907: 17-1.
Tie Dixie, newly unblocked mare. My guess: 9-1. Odds in Pennsylvania 1061.1208: 5-1. I think the computer overrates unraced horses.
Away Without Way, my first winner, moving up in the claiming ranks. My guess: 7-1. Odds ion Alabama 1061.3207: 7-1. Ahem.
Swiftly Spurn, Larot Stables' top 3-year old. Guess: 18-1. Odds in Indiana 1061.2001: 6-1. Haven't examined the field yet, but this is a $36.4 MSW and SS is only RTG.
Hollow Carson: Running in a scam-type PA track-restricted claimer. Scam because they do it every 3 weeks and only a few horses enter. I was away all today; he was the only entrant for some time this week. A 1-5 entrant entered late (check out claim possibility for this $5K favourite, you guys) Guess: 7-2. Odds in PA's 1215 4-horse field: 5-1. I'm changing Hollow's running style, and am optimistic.
Time is short right now so I'll ignore the 4 donkey types running for Larot Stables this week for one reason or another. There is an equine-interest sob story. Unique Invader, whom I intended to eliminate this week, came up Sharp, and the horse ticker was down over the weekend so I haven't made my final breeding decision yet...so she was entered this week, in 1315 and 4202. If she bombs again, she goes for a 50-point combo next week; if she wins, this will be the equine tearjerker of the year.
Toral 2: All-Star Gator-- guess 11-1. odds in 1901, 13-1.
Napkin Kicking: guess 20-1. Odds in 1061.1310: 22-1. Will be in MC next time.
Colonel Knob: guess 9-1. Odds in 1061.3109: 10-1. Has run 90.
Finally, to me the most interesting race of the week here, Kangaroo Minstrel, a 1st-time MSW winner. Guess: 6-1. Odds in Germany 5806: 3-1. Only a 5-horse field for a $32K Allowance. One must race in Germany -- they're giving away free marks there.
I'm surprised how close my intuitive guesses were.
More substantive analysis probably coming later, but meanwhile, good luck to all this week.
Toral
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| 3 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Thu, Jun 14, 05:28
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Wow. You are an impressive prognosticator. I agree with you that unraced horses tend to be over-rated. Not sure why.
Colonel Knob is my kind of claimer. Only problem is the 3 wins. Sigh. But he ran a 90.2 and has gone 80+ 4 times.
What I find striking is that he hasn't been sufficiently tested at 7-8f. Only one 8f race, and the results were mixed. My guess is that 8f is too far. But it's not 100% certain. Same with turf, actually.
At any rate, please translate those prognostications about odds into good bets, please :). As I said, my stables have no good bets this week.
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| 4 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Thu, Jun 14, 09:19
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Cryptomile, #1 of 14, 12/1, 2902, 5.5f - running against Madman3's Stinky the Urban. Really wanted to run Cryptomile at a mile this week, (couldn't find a race) but she has very good balanced speed so she may do just as well short as long. She's rated as the favorite at 9/2 and I expect nothing less than a win this week for her. Only problem is that I got totally screwed on Jockeys. When I was picking jocks for that race only about 6 states showed up when I looked at the jockey pool. One of those was Calif. and I chose my jock from there. Now all the states are showing up and I see N. Calif. is separate, so I got a bad jockey. Guess I need to set the riding preference myself, but have no idea what I should do. Is this race short enough to jump out to the front and go wire to wire?
Only other race for me this week is 2312 where I am running Country Water on Turf after a dismal dirt run previously. 40/1 doesn't look good. I see cab has entered Sparky Brush as well.
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| 5 | cab
Donor
ID: 52539920
Thu, Jun 14, 10:08
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Yankee Alphabet returns to Minnesota this week(4711-post #3) for a track restricted 6f try...Only 5 entrants here but he is rated 3rd equal fav at 12/1..Without looking at the field too much yet i would suspect he will be vying for that 3rd spot..Has Friar on board who has 21% winners this year and 47% itm/yr...This should help him..If nothing else he will bring home a few bp's and he is sharp..
Cherokee judge,my baby claimer gets her first try for the cab stable...Racing at Alabama(3201)draws the 12 position and is at rank outsider odds of 66/1..I would like to think she will run better than that!!..Painter is riding,another very capable jock..also sharp
Mechanical smell, a claimer, is running at Alabama as well(3208)rated a 12/1 shot..This a cpu restricted race(270k)...He has been racing routes recently and returns to a sprint for a try..He is sharp as well..
Hick succeeding(6909) and Sparky brush(2312) have a try on turf this week...They failed last time out on dirt so we will see how they go on the grass..both long odds..
Sparky is running against one of your horses Cards!
Our idols is in a 9f dirt race at South Dakota(4307) rated at 12/1...
I did a complete about face with the Clam..Not only is he racing this week in a 9f dirt race..It is a stakes race as well..There are only 5 others in this race at Washington(1607)...He is 3rd fav at 5/1 ...Has the services of Houston,the top jock for the track...He is only rtg but should be on the *better* side of rtg..I only hope the extra week off may help him....Unfortunately i can't see too many weaknesses in the 2 fav's at this point(again i haven't really had a decent look at the field yet)although one hasn't raced since wk 991, a long layoff..Harry storm is in this race Madman,That claimer from a few weeks back that looked particularly good..
I would like to think the Clam can finish in the money...
I did look at putting him in a str.all race or allowance but in all honesty the competition in those races are as hard,if not harder than the lower level stakes races..
This training for a particular week bugged me..I had him trained for this week and he comes up sharp a week early,now he is only rtg..Where is the logic in that?..Especially when all the advice says(here and on the mb) 3yo's should have 3 to 4 weeks off between races..It makes you wonder if you should just leave it blank and race them when they come up sharp..
Another thing...Getting the ladies into races is particularly hard...Not only are there few races to choose from,it is a lottery to get into them because of the number of entries....For the first time i had a horse miss out this week...She was sharp too..sigh..Mind you ,she is a donkey!..lol
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| 6 | cab
Donor
ID: 52539920
Thu, Jun 14, 10:15
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Wow it must've taken me an hour to write that..lol..I notice they are next to each other in the stalls, Cards...I hope they have their minds on the job..lol(although the odds of both of them wouldn't indicate it!)
The Clam is actually 4th fav..Harry Storm is ahead of him in the rankings as well..
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| 7 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Thu, Jun 14, 10:21
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6 horses going this week.
jkaye:
Midget Talent-3212 Coming off his 90 speed performance in breaking maiden, Midget tries the Allowance ranks this week. At 39/1 he is possible misplaced, but if he runs 90 again he will be right up there.
Profitable Royalty-3405 17/1 shot actually makes him the 3rd choice in the 7 horse 30K claimer. He has no chance at placing, but clearly a show is possible and for an 8 yr old at this level claimer, that is a nice sign.
Dynarun Form-3314 5/2 shot in a 4 horse 25K claimer. He should have no problem at 2nd as long as he stays in the 70 speed figures, and if he gets into the high 70s(like his 77 last time) or even higher, he has a chance for the win. My money would be on him placing.
Light Award-6308 The long awaited debut of this 7 yr old is finally here. Tied as the 2nd choice at 9/2. We'll see what the horse can do.
jkaye1:
Dixie's Bungees-7003 Listed as 9/2, but he won't show. Not sure what happened here, but I messed up. I think this race is too long for Dixie. Look for a poor performance.
sunday89:
El Guitar-2612 Comes out as 14/1 shot in first race. A solid horse, and we'll see what happens here.
Overall, it could be a decent week. Odds have jkaye to come away with 3 of 4 horses in the money. The other 2 stables' horse is less likely to do so. Midget Talent is the one to watch to see if he can duplicate his last performance and contend despite long odds.
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| 8 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 1418917
Thu, Jun 14, 11:02
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Madman 3: thanx for that commentary and history on Colonel Knob. Looking at the pedigree, my thought was similar: I bet this horse could go 7 or 8, and turf hasn't been ruled out. But for the moment I decided if it ain't broke, don't fix it. That may be a mistake. The time to experiment may be *before* he wins his 4th. I need to think about that issue.
cab: I've had the same frustration with 3-year olds. Swiftly Spurn was sharp right after his last; trained for this and is only RTG. I was thinking the same thing the other day...maybe I should just race them when sharp. I think I will after July 1st. The official article on recovery time states that 3-year-olds age in "real time" till July 1st and at faster time (like 4+s) after July 1st. So back-to-back races will be like racing every 2 weeks, which 3-year olds can handle. Yep, more I think of it, next time a 3-year old comes up sharp, off he goes.
Toral
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| 9 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Thu, Jun 14, 14:24
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Stl -- you don't have much to go on if you want to set the riding options for Cryptomile. I'd go 90% based on her last start. But if there is other solid speed in the race, this could be a bad idea. Tough call right now.
cab -- yeah. Allowance races are just as hard as stakes races -- especially for straight 3 yo's! Makes no sense. But that's why I've been running in some stakes races lately. Out of 4 starts, I've gotten a 2nd, 3rd and 2 4ths with this strat. Now, granted, this isn't as good as winning, but the speed figures: 97, 79, 82 and 60 wouldn't warrant more than 2, 3, and 2 4th's, anyway. And the purses have been much, much larger. Further, 2 of those guys were on a repeat at the same track, meaning they got at least 2-3 breeding points for the effort. Unless your horse has proven 100+ speed, you've got to watch placement after breaking your maiden. Sigh.
I still think Clam is going to be a good horse. 100+ speed is there in him. But I'm worried about this week. As you know, I really like Harry Storm. And only being RTG would make me nervous. Harry is in his first race with a new trainer, too.
And regarding the "train for week" business, I'm upset, as well. I've got a 4 yo I want to race in week 1068. He just came up Sharp, sigh. He's been raced moderately heavily (Light Jupiter). He better be up for it next week. Got a 100K Starter Allowance that he just barely qualifies for. I'm going for it, anyway.
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| 10 | cab
Donor
ID: 52539920
Fri, Jun 15, 10:42
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I'm gonna stick my neck out and say that the Clam can finish in the first two...Oh boy!!..lol
Paunchi rain(#2-3/1) hasn't raced for 10 weeks(Am not sure why?..he won his last race(91sp-his best to date) so he wouldn't have been injured would he?)so he may need a race or two to get back into form..
Harry storm(#5-9/2) is a definate threat but this will be his third successive week racing..I would not think that he is sharp(but you never know i guess!!)If he is fit he will be closing fast..
Dee Liver(#1-4/5) is the deserved favourite..Hard to find a weakness here...He has worked up through the grades and has a couple of 100sp's to his name..Failed(relatively)at 9f in a grade 2 race (89sp) and then had a 93sp at 9.5f his next start..Doesn't have the greatest jockey around..I would imagine he is sharp and definately the one to beat ..
Captain stamp(#4-74/1) looks to be totally outclassed..
West with boom(#6-7/1) is another Boonee horse..Looks to be more of a sprinter to me..two route races haven't shown a great deal..
How it will pan out...Hmmmmm....The Clam and Dee liver will be vying for the lead with Paunchi rain sitting just in behind..(assuming the jockey selects aren't played with by their owners)..If they can get a decent lead and don't kill themselves in the process ,Dee liver and the Clam will fight out the finish with Harry storm finishing over the top of Paunchi rain..If they kill themselves,Harry storm wins it..
A place bet on the Clam would be the best way to go imo, if you are going to have a punt on this race....Maybe a 1/3 exacta boxed or 1/3/5 tri, boxed..
You're right Madman,the rtg is a concern..I just hope he can guts it out...
Of my other guys,a little show bet on Yankee(12/1) might be wortwhile...There are only 5 in this race so i don't know that it will pay much..
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| 11 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Fri, Jun 15, 13:34
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cab Horses can get hurt in the barn. Or the owner might have taken a break from the game. Or he/she was trying to get Paunch sharp for certain races and it never panned out. Hard to say. You can get your horses sharp again after a layoff. Whether or not that is too long of a layoff, we'll see.
I'm a bit nervous betting on a place from the second-favorite speed horse. I guess it is too late now, but I wonder what would happen if the jockey took Clam out slowly. . .
I was liking Harry Storm before the 3 in a row bit. That does seem a bit excessive. I bet the new owner saw a short field and went for it. Either that or horses tend to recover after claims. I've had more than my fair share of sharp claimers. But after two straight weeks that seems unlikely.
Actually, I wonder if the best money isn't a win bet on Dee Liver. You can almost double your money. And if Clam is only RTG, Clam probably won't wear Dee Liver out. It will be a very interesting race. One that I'm definitely watching tomorrow.
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| 12 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 1418917
Fri, Jun 15, 15:47
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I love the slop. It makes me want to go out and roll around in it. And I found me a horse to bet on...in South Dakota's 4303, one Rakida's Plug (see Madman1). Very fine mud breeding across the board. Stalk/close style may lessen impact of outside post. Can beat horse of top jock Lussi. Favoured Zordich horse in one slot threat, but has poor mud breeding except for In Reality back at DDS; ran 80 on good, big deal. Strong connections who will have the horse sharp (so I trust).
If he were 10-1, I'd open the wallet. At 6-1, I'll settle for small change, to win and place.
Toral
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| 13 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Fri, Jun 15, 16:50
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Hmmm. Very cool, Toral! You've got me excited for tomorrow's races, now!
Boyst simply hasn't gotten much exposure. By recent win%, he's #2. But the sample is small. Too bad I didn't get Lussi.
In case you don't recall, that 6.5f at 79 speed was at 95% effort, too. So the only concerns I have about this race is that 6.0f may be a bit too short for a top effort and that the 90 speed may have been a fluke. But he's got great breeding, so I'm betting on the 90 speed being for real.
I hope you are correct! Putting some cash down on this boy now.
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| 14 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Sat, Jun 16, 11:27
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A 3rd straight solid week.
jkaye:
Dynarun Form scored my 2nd victory as he dominated his 7500 claimer. Very impressive performance, likely over 80 speed. Only question now is if I lost him. If so, so be it. I doubled his claim price and scored 2 good finishes in a row with the horse.
Light Award made a strong debut finishing 3rd.
Profitable Royalty Ran 3rd at 30K claimer level. A weak field for such a high claimer which is the only reason he was there.
Midget Talent Ran very well and finished middle of the pack in Alw race. Considering he had by far the longest odds, he did OK.
jkaye1:
Dixie's Bungess I made a mistake and entered him in too long a race. Should do fine at shorter distance.
sunday89:
El Guitar got destroyed and finished last in his 1st ever race.
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| 15 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Sat, Jun 16, 11:37
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I should say that Dynarun Form earned my 3RD overall win, 2nd for jkaye stables.
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| 16 | cab
Donor
ID: 52539920
Sat, Jun 16, 14:14
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Ouch!!...My head just got lopped off...lol
I don't think i will be making anymore bold predictions in the near future...
I sensend after the first furlong the Clam was doomed..The top two just got away too fast...I hope he is not injured..I think from now on ,my horses run when they are sharp..no matter what week they are trained for...Might not even bother setting them for specific weeks,just leave the space blank and "train for next race"...
I have to look into that training further..
Madman..I did think about tinkering with the jockey select for a fleeting minute...Quickly dimissed it though, thinking the jockey was good enough to know what to do with him...I would doubt very much the outcome would've been any different..
Yankee was totaly outsped in his race..Was too short for him though..A shame he just missed 4th and missed a few extra bp's..I actually thought there was gonna be a couple of cpu horses in this race and life may have been a bit easier for him...Upon reflection, it is probably not the time to be running in track restricted races yet for Yankee..Still too many other conditions for him to work through,if he is good enough that is..
The rest,Hick succeeding,Our Idols,Cherokee judge and Mechanical smell all finished well down the track in their races...A lot of homework to be done here i am thinking...
A good days racing for you Jkaye! and a great day for Toral as well..excellent!!
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| 17 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Jun 16, 14:51
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Very interesting week. I should have put money on Dee Liver . . . sigh. At any rate, I put a decent amount on Rakida's Plug, split between Win and Show, paying me a net of 25%. Not bad. He almost won. The race was just a little short for him (1/4 lengths back, 6f race, speed of 88.5).
The big news? Madman3 earnings of $101,797! With a 3rd from Rakida's and a strong Allowance 10f turf win from Aggie Bomber, the overall stable winnings got pushed over the magic 100K mark in my 20th race, exactly.
Aggie Bomber easily dispatched his competition in that Allowance race, winning by 5 lengths. Should have put some money on him (sigh). I guess this means than he can handle 10f! Cool. I'm going to keep stretching him out. Speed rating was a pedestrian 76, but those turf marathons don't have fast speed ratings. And it was a very easy win.
At any rate, he just became my #1 winning horse with $41K and 2 wins to his name. Rakida's Plug just got displaced, falling to #2 with $33,496.
Other notables? I've got a number of 3 yo's in Madman999 that are going straight to low-level claimers from here on out. I'm fed up with them ruining my W/L record.
Private Count got trounced in a short sprint. Which is OK with me. Things will be fine when I move back up. I still think this 4 yo filly will eventually be my #1 (outside of the Miswaki 3 yo's that are blocked).
Other news? 3 yo Well Bert ran 5th in a short dirt sprint, 72 speed or so. Not bad. Enough to give him a shot at 6 or 7f.
A very cool development was that my bargain breed, Snow Storm, finished a very solid 3rd with a 65 speed rating in his first-ever race!! My first 2 yo In-The-Money! And a 65 speed now for a 2 yo, while not stakes quality, is a good sign. Especially RTG.
Claims I'm about ready to give up on this. I didn't get a single horse I put in for. I've had the worst luck with claiming horses. I also tried to put a last minute bid in for a 3 yo with all her conditions. I got totally blown away. As I had been blown away earlier in the week when I had put in a bid for an injured 3 yo. This is a bummer.
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| 18 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Jun 16, 14:55
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Quick note: I have many horses with more than 41K in winnings. What I meant was that Agriculture Bomber has the most winning for any of my original buys, as well as having won more money for my stables than any other. . . Aggie Bomber has definitely become one of my favorite horses. 2 wins, a place and a 6th when I accidentally signed him up for a Stakes race that was out of his league.
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| 19 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 1418917
Sat, Jun 16, 15:37
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This was "Always the Bridesmaid" day at the Toral Megacomplex. 2nd-place finishes by Kangaroo Minstrel, Napkin Kicking (at 22-1, gives me some hope for the horse), Swiftly Spurn (RTG), Mine Devastation and Away Without Way. Like I had thot, this was a day where I might be shut out without being disappointed. Well, they all made some contribution to the cause without losing any conditions....Plus a 3rd from Hollow Carson (RTG).
Toral 2 Farms welcomes its new 2-year old claimer
Rusty Trip (57866). Couldn't resist Secretariat as dam-sire...I certainly couldn't afford one otherwise. Should be dirt somewhere between 6 and 8.5, I figure. At Newmarket the computer was tossing nice 2-year olds into cheap claimers, and they seemed like bargains to me. Don't mind paying to ship Rusty over here, or may look at 2-yr old dirt possibilities across the pond first. Great thing about doing business in England is that my trip there to see the race is tax-deductible....Didn't get my first choice, Towards In a Yokel, #33522 with Mr. Prospector as dam-sire, but am satisfied.
This is clean-up week at Larot Stables, where I realize that my cheap filly auction pickups were no bargain at all and toss Fair Goddess and Dirty Ability into the auction and eliminate Unique Invader. I missed the boat by not claiming more intelligently when my first 2 stables were under 20 races, but live and learn. My 50-point intended breed has edged into the 102-104 BP range last few days and I need it to sneak back down to 99 or I'll have to change plans. This pick is based on a study of cheap progeny of classic chefs-de-race. I haven't finished it, but it would take me forever. Imagine Madman could do it with a click of the mouse. When you see this baby, the name of its sire and dam-sire, and what I name it, you won't imagine I didn't pick these horses on a whim....
This week I also toss my to-be-eliminated $9 Toral2 horse into one race before breeding a stamina cheapie there. Unless I barely have enuf BP to do it now.... Only one slot left in Toral2. 4th stable? Nah, I think I'll wait till the horses are refreshed and jump in then.
Congrats to Dynarun Form and JKaye; and Aggie Bobmer and Madman. Horses who can go a long way have a very valuable niche in this game all to their own.
Toral
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| 20 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Sat, Jun 16, 15:54
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Cryptomile ran a dissapointing 4th. I left the riding to the jock who obviously blew it jumping out to the lead too fast. Hopefully I can find a longer race next time. With a name like Cryptomile how can I not try a mile next time?
Country Water was moved to turf after a terrible first race on dirt. Did even worse coming in dead last. This horse will be moving to low level claimers asap.
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| 21 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Jun 16, 16:16
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Toral -- 2nd places are perfectly acceptable, I think. The only time that there is no silver lining to a second is if your horse it out of conditions. Sounds like a good week.
Digging through breeding possibilities indeed takes a lot of time. I doubt I could do it in a click of a mouse.
StlCards Cryptomile has some talent. 4th isn't that bad. You pay for his feed for a week or two, and you can bump him up a bit in distance. He ran a 73.3 speed. There are worse things. . . For example, your horse could have finished 6th, with no cash to show for a 62.2 speed effort :). StLCards 1, Madman 0 in show-downs, eh?
And he started out at exactly the same % he did the first time. I think he's a speed horse.
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| 22 | JKaye
ID: 19443421
Sat, Jun 16, 20:45
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Speed ratings now posted. Dynarun Form's winning speed was 82. Light Award finished 3rd with an 85. He'll be joining the 90 list very soon.
A lot of my horses came back sharp for this week--8 off the top of my head.
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| 23 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sun, Jun 17, 00:16
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For fun, I did a re-visit of my Madman3 draft . . .
1) Arctic Government -- first race this week.
2) Rakida's Plug -- 91 speed max
3) Agri Bomber -- 80, but two wins, and marathon turfer.
4) Land Mama -- 61, 57 speed. 7th place = highest.
5) Northern View -- 74.4, 85.1, 3rd and 2nd place.
6) ???? 37828. Not raced. ????
7) Blood Waxing. 57.9, 58.7, 9th place = highest
8) Wrestling Jumper -- 58, 60 speed, both on turf.
9) Storm Earn. Unraced.
10) Mario Goof. Unraced.
11) December Jodie. 49.7 speed.
Northern view, a 4 year-old Green Desert Progeny is looking like a solid pickup. But so far Rakida's been much strong, and I think I'd take Agriculture Bomber's heart.
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Goatlocker Draft Evaluation:
26121 - 7 year old - Crass You - Male - Advancing Ensign x Kaldoun(FR) x Northern Dancer -- N/A
54317 - 3 year old - Skinny Noose - Male - Hennessy x Raja Baba x Northern Dancer -- N/A
24156 - 6 year old - Away From the Roo - Male - Runaway Groom x Mr. Long x Targowice -- N/A
12096 - 7 year old - Charm Laura - Female - Crystal Water x Habitat x Bold Reasoning --48.6, 13th place
21149 - 5 year old - Eight Arc - Male - Wavering Monarch x Shirley Heights(GB) x Bold Monarch --52.0 -- I think this is Torla2's horse now?
37490 - 5 year old - Wavering Bag - Male - Wavering Monarch x Herbager x Kaskaskia --N/A
--
29548 - 7 year old - Nineteen Charisma(GB) - Male - Dashing Blade(GB) x Danzig x Gallant Native -- 31.8!! but 13f on turf.
59310 - 3 year old - Stock Geri - Female - Stock Ahead x Rudimentary x Mr. Prospector -- 71.1 4th of 12. (Goatlocker stables :) )
13295 - 4 year old - Doughnut Sal(GB) - Male - Son of Silver(GB) x Fappiano x Cornish Prince -- 56.2
4736 - 6 year old - Zarb For Station - Female - Ginistrelli x Time For A Change x Best Turn -- 39.4, also goatlocker stables.
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Madman4 draft re-evaluation:
1. Sal at the Bell -- Blocked.
2. Unjust Can -- unraced.
3. stinky noose -- unraced.
4. 47606 -- unraced.
5. Private Count -- 83.4, 76.5, 2nd and 7th
6. 46617 -- unraced.
7. 33075 -- unraced.
8. Drunken Badger -- 56, 59, 9th, 6th. Sigh.
I obviously had troubles with this draft.
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| 24 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sun, Jun 17, 00:19
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Congrats, JKaye on Light Award. You've got a solid runner there. And you also have the option of breeding him once you get enough points. Although it would be a shame to lose what I would call "perfect" breeding -- 3 stud sires in all 3 slots . . .
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| 25 | cab
Donor
ID: 52539920
Sun, Jun 17, 00:51
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This game is confusing me!...The Clam is not injured or anything...He came back sharp!..I guess that last effort just goes down to an "off day" or not liking the track or something..Anyhow around he goes around next week...
The only thing i have found so far concerning the traing is that the further into the future you point your horse the better your chances of getting them to come up sharp BUT if you aim too far ahead he may get to the "need a race" stage which i suspect is not so good...It seems like it could be a fine line..
I am guessing factors like how they pulled up in their race,what options are set(all out,98%,95% etc),what dist. they run (too short,too long?)have to be considered(any other factors??).
Upon reflection, training a horse like "Buda" for the triple crown, for example, would not be easy..Pointing them at a specific race(s) and getting them sharp for that race(s) is where the experienced trainers are going to come to the fore i think..
On a sad note....My other 2yo, Chief coy had an unfortunate accident in the paddock today..It is unclear what happenned but it seems he was frolicking around,happy as larry,in his paddock after a work out and pulled up lame...He was coming along nicely too and was being prepped for a run next week...Unfortunately his status is "lay off" now, meaning at least another 6-8 weeks off(i know this because Red sal ran in the first week i began and he came back "lay off"..I am still waiting to be able to race him again!..he has just progressed to the "little groggy" state today)..
Another busy week for me with, nine sharp horses to find races for...(doesn't this just suck...Amy donkey,who was sharp last week and missed out on drawing into a race, came back sharp again!!...Why oh why couldn't the Clam do that!!..lol)
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| 26 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sun, Jun 17, 03:39
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Alot Under Run ran in week 1005, got injured, and is now back to Sharp status. 1068-1005 = 63 days or 9 weeks. Wow. It sure doesn't seem like that long ago when I started my rotciv stable!
Each injury is a bit different. Kentucky Project ran a 77 speed in his race and came back to the barn lame. He's not back to "needs rest" IIRC.
Let's hope that your 2 yo injury is mild.
What is really unusual about the Clam coming back that rested is that the distance was long. My guess is that this just says a 73 speed is wayyyy below his maximum output. The jockey probably just said "uh, I'm not gonna win", and then pulled up on his own. That's a good sign. I think it means you can probably go 9f.
Or maybe not. Who knows? :)
Rotciv stables by itself has 7 Sharp horses this week! I'm going to have another busy week, myself, with about 14 runners. I had to get my fourth horse to join ASR. The benefits of it may be coming to me this week. I'm hoping to get Light Jupiter into an ASR restricted race with a HUGE purse. . . and he's sharp and should be able to beat the horses that are listed so far . . . Crossing fingers that a Buda with the Slew doesn't appear out of nowhere. . .
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| 27 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 1418917
Sun, Jun 17, 11:06
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Madman 26...is there a waiting list for ASR? Saw something like that on their message board....Do all your stables get in at once, or just one?
For speed figures this week, check out Napkin Kicking's from nowhere 88. And I was getting ready to send him to a cheap MC bext time out!
Bad luck for me in the coming-up sharp department. Although Mine Devastation did and I'm so tempted to run him right back...but I'll wait till July before I fo that. City O'Gold is sharp only 3 weeks after his last race. What should I do? Train him for 2 weeks from now, or race him. He's 2.
Got my breeding done last night. Alas, my desired combination of Royal Al x Toravich didn't come off -- time impossibility. The progeny would have been called, of course, Royal Toral. My 50-pointer for Larot Stables snuck under the 100 mark -- to 99 -- for one cycle of the horse ticker and I got that one in as well.
My 2-year old claimer came up injured :( But I didn't intend to race him for 5 weeks anyway, and good chance he'll be OK by then.
Toral
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| 28 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Mon, Jun 18, 14:17
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Yeah, there's a waiting list. If you sign up now, you may get in when stables are purged after the current contest.
You have to have 4 stables. Each ASR member has all 4 stables enter.
Light Jupiter will be running in the ASR "Florida Flying" this week, but there is some stiff competition. With a pot of $100K, however, I have to go for it.
Too bad the Royal Toral thing didn't work. That would have been too funny.
I've got a combo that I want to breed -- another bargain basement type. It just squeaks in at 49 points. However, I don't have a horse I want to eliminate. Back to the auction, I guess, and hope that the prices stay down!
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| 29 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Mon, Jun 18, 14:46
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Recently I have done a decent job placing horses, but I do have a question that perhaps one of you folks can help me out with.
Where to place Midget Talent? Clearly, 6f dirt is his niche, but what level race? High level claimer? Alw seems to be too high for him. His speed ratings are all over the place so I am really wondering what type of race he can settle into.
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| 30 | GoatLocker
ID: 26058212
Mon, Jun 18, 15:21
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Busy week last week, and missed getting any of my 4 sharp horses drawn into races.
One remained sharp and the three I claimed are all sharp, so will have at least 4 horses running this week.
Am going to try to fill the second stable and probably try to run a couple of them.
Cliff
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| 31 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Mon, Jun 18, 15:22
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JKaye This is my take on Midget Talent's line. First off, a review of my previous stable review for Midget Talent:
Weak female family for Rahy horse. 13 furlongs is not a good gauge for turf ability -- sprint or mile tests are better gauges, because most horses won’t be able to get that distance. Could try 6f. turf sprint and then drop accordingly in ranks. EASY WING: Never heard of the sireline -- filly does run gutsy over the main track -- could try one mile dirt route or 6f. turf sprint next -- suspect she’d be competitive at the $10,000 to $25,000 MCL level. Try the latter tag level first -- you’l just have to experiment, because can’t tab her pedigree well besides Rahy. :(
Although It's nice to see Midget Talent do well on Dirt, I still think you need to give another consideration to turf. Rahy is a sprint/turf sire. At the very least, you likely have a horse that can do well on either surface.
Regarding your comment that the speed numbers are all over the place, I disagree. Although you don't have enough observations to determine this for sure, I think they all can be explained by a very consistent story: Your horse has an unknown / non-existent surface preference, and is maxed out at somewhere between 7.5 and 9f.
The 17 speed on Turf was a totally unfair test. Such a low speed figure just means that your horse didn't even bother to try. A fact that is consistent with 13f being a few furloughs too far. And/or he doesn't like turf. The 9f at 53 speed was a little closer, but still over the cutoff. The 90.6 was a result of good to optimal distance, the fact that your horse was a better speed horse than any other in the race (Order Lake challenged, some, but your horse was just superior), and a "sling-shot" effect that I think might happen a bit after the horse has been poorly matched (i.e., after 1 or 2 or 3 races significantly off a horse's optimal distance, they tend to really put a statement down at their best distance. It's a theory I'm working on, anyway. Notice that it happened to Babified Opposum in his allowance win two weeks ago. And it also helps to explain why a number of new claimers tend to do a bit better -- if they are put into proper races for them).
The 78.2 was surely disappointing. But Senor Secret did to you what Order Lake in the previous race -- a superior horse going out at a very fast tempo. Midget tried to hang on, and collapsed. That's just going to happen when you get a bad matchup. A 78 in those conditions would be a 90 speed in perfect conditions. Not to mention Belly Cow and others that were pushing a too-fast pace.
At any rate, I'd go for a 6 or 7f turf sprint if possible. If not, I'd go for 7 or 8f dirt race. The idea is that you THINK 6f is his optimal distance, but he might do better at 7 or even 8 flat. His dam-sire line is impossible for me to read.
And make sure you race him sharp. The low speed rating the first time out indicates that he might be one of those horses who just doesn't have it when RTG.
And watch out for any race with significant early speed. Obviously, try to avoid those if you can (it's hard).
Oh, and if you do go for the claim races (not recommended for now), you WILL lose him if you put him in with less than a 10K tag. Rahy is a well-known sire. You MIGHT be able to sneak him past people at 20K or higher. People tend to stay away from older male horses, and he does have a weak dam-side lineage. However, he's lightly raced, and would still be an attractive target. Especially since it's obvious he hasn't been run in any turf sprints, and some will pick up on this and hope for another improvement.
Personally, I'd stick with NW1x, and experiment with a few 7-8f Dirt and Turf races (and 6f Turf if you can find those for older horses). Your easiest races right now are probably the restricted CPU value allowance runs. Those marathon races have probably put a big hit on his CPU value. At any rate, if his CPU value is under 75 or 100K, I'd definitely go this route. If it's above that, well, then I might stick with NW1x.
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| 32 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Mon, Jun 18, 15:24
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Oops. Just realized my quote was too long.
And when I say Midget Talent is "maxed out" at between 7.5 and 9f, I was referring to the maximum distance he can run competitively.
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| 33 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Mon, Jun 18, 15:26
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Amazing, Madman. More of an answer than I expected, and I appreciate that. Thanks.
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| 34 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Mon, Jun 18, 17:06
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No prob, JKaye. Anything to help out another Ace Gurupie horse! Midget's the second fastest draft horse we've got going, so we need success. Plus, those low 90 speed horses above age 4 who have already broken their maiden's are really tough to place, IMO. I've been struggling with that a LOT (Babified Opossum, Rakida's Plug, etc., etc.).
I just signed up Arctic Government. He's my #2 prospect (I think Sal at the Bell in Madman4 has my top breeding). My love of Miswaki progeny will be put to the test!! Going for a 7f in KY as #1, then the 8.5f in CA. Want the Big Purses with this boy, and I'll work my way down if need be.
Madman3 is getting some cigars ready. I was looking over my stable, and Front Stamping's 3 races at sub-50 just pissed me off. So, he's going bye-bye. I'm replacing him with:
Sutter's Creek (if male) or Glorious Beau (if female). The male name is in reference to the location of the gold find in '49 (his sire is Emigrant Peak, a 49'er progeny). I was trying to work the Emigrant angle on the name, but it was too hard. The closest I came up with was The Eagle -- the name of the first ship of Chinese Immigrants to San Fran. in 1848. I decided against that as too weird -- naming a horse after a bird. I almost named him Sutter's Folly. But I don't want a negative name for my horse. Although something should commemorate the famous Mexican's fall from grace and subsequent bankruptcy at having gold found on his property (actually, that was the point, I guess. Gold was found on his Mexican property. He didn't hold a deed with the US government. And when the Mexican War got settled . . . ). The female name, Glorious Beau is simply a merge of Emigrant Peak's Dam, Glorious View, and this horse's dam-sire, Beaudelaire. At any rate, I digress.
He's / She's a progeny of Emigrant Peak (49erxNaskraxMr. Prospector), Beaudelaire (NijinskyxHabitatxNorthern Dancer), and Nureyev (Northern DancerxForlixNearctic).
Obviously, my new horse is ridiculously in-bred on the dam-side with Northern Dancer. But I couldn't resist Nureyev at 122 BP. And Beaudelaire is the dam-sire of Snow Storm who had a decent first run, and is the dam-sire of a few other decent bargain breds in the sim. Emigrant Peak hasn't been used much in the sim, but there is at least one extremely good horse with him as the sire, so his %'age of success is excellent. For 16 BP, I think he's a steal right now. I hope. So, the combo of 49er speed and Nijinksy/Nureyev stamina will hopefully produce a solid 2 yo runner.
Side Note: 2 yo races will be getting longer here in the near future. After July 1, recovery times on 2 yo's will get a bit faster. My Madman3 stables will soon be overloaded with younger horses. Rakida's Plug and Agriculture Bomber are the oldest two in the stable. I do have a couple of claimer types (Elocat's Boys and Kentucky Project), although they have been pathetic.
Oh, and Agriculture Bomber came back Little Groggy from his Allowance win. I'm worried about this. I hope he can go more than 10f. At any rate, you know that I'm going to try. Caerleon's success at route turfers is excellent, and I'm not going to quit stretching him out just because he's a bit tired after a 5 lengths win. . .
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| 35 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 1418917
Mon, Jun 18, 19:16
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Madman: enjoy the story of your naming the horses. I like care in naming. My Larot Stables homebred this week has a rather ridiculous combine-the-ancestors name because I had to change my combo at the last minute, and wanted to breed immediately while it was still at 99 points. Well such goofy combos are at least traditional. The original names for my sire and DS were goofy anyway, so the tradition might as well continue. And if you don't like negative names for horses, you won't like the name of my Toral2 homebred....
Nureyev at 122 is a bargain indeed.
Is it definite that 2-year olds recover more quickly after July 1? I know 3-yr olds are supposed to go from real time to half-time like all older horses, but 2-year olds change too? Any idea about the degree of the change?
I wouldn't worry at all about a little grogginess in a route turfer. I would expect that's got to be par for the course for them, and says nothing about the ability to go farther.
Toral
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| 36 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Mon, Jun 18, 21:55
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I've tried to give thought to all three of my homebreds -- Secret Society (Stark Secret / Society Max), Snow Storm (from Christmas Storm. I thought about straight "Blizzard" . . . at any rate, this horse was the toughest -- Christmas Storm x Beaudelaire. Geez.) and now this one. It's hard to name horses.
I don't mind negative names; I just didn't want to Jinx my horse before he took to the field.
No, it's not certain that things will shorten up on July 1. But the races will get longer for 2 yo's about then, so it makes sense. Some are claiming that they are already recovering faster. Zgreat asserted the July 1 hypothesis, and he's worth listening to.
I hope you're right about the little grogginess from a marathoner. I've got to see how far this Caerleon Progeny will go (Agric. Bomber).
Nureyev has been at 122 for awhile. But I went ahead and bred this horse with Madman3 instead of rotciv stables since I didn't want to wait a week. The price for this trio was 99 . . . just barely got the discount. And Nureyev as DDS is only 61, obviously. Talk about a bargain!
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| 37 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 1418917
Mon, Jun 18, 23:41
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Madman: what you say about 2-yr olds makes sense. And I always listen to Zgreat.
Caerleon progeny. Aaaarrgh. As you know, Caerleon is one of the 6 horses listed by Dr Roman as a stamina brood-sire (as well as being everything else he is known to be). I can't tell you how much time I've spent (wasted) researching Caerleon progeny during the time I've played this game. I'm glad you have had better luck. Kangaroo Minstrel and the Arc and The Bead are going long on turf -- although the Arc has been on Layoff since his 1st race, distressingly.
I know I've gotten obsessed when I have 2 pages in the notebook I carry devoted to possible horse names. Anyway, I like the name of my 2-yr old 29 point staminer: Ministry of Chaos. It's not a name I thot up myself; it has a history, and derives from a hilarious pun by a very bad man in a different language. Considering the torment I went through (I had researched many stamina sires, but not their dates of being sires -- I must have tried 50 combinations) I found the name appropriate.
I think Aureole is a huge bargain as a DDS. Soon, I'll find out.
Thanx to J for telling me on the message board how to do boldface.
Toral
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| 38 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Tue, Jun 19, 02:00
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"Ministry of Chaos" -- hahaha. Awesome name. I don't know the reference, however.
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| 39 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Tue, Jun 19, 02:08
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Oh, I'm not sure I follow your statement about Caerleon progeny. He's got one of the best sim-progeny win percentages at over 20%, as of the last update (4/3/01). It sounds like you've found a number of bad ones??? Kangaroo has Caerleon as a grandpappy, which means that you never know.
Agri. Bomber is Caerleon x Staff Writer x Prince Blessed (from Princequillo), so he's got more than just Caerleon going for him, although I think Caerleon is the most dominant influence.
_____________________________
I also forgot to mention another milestone: Agri. Bomber's win last week was the 10th for my stables. This means I'm now 10 for 80 overall. Not the greatest record in the world. But, like all of us newbies, I've been stuck with some DAWGS. Hopefully as I weed those dawgs out, things will improve a bit. As it stands now, Madman999 (0/24) and Madman4 (0/7) are really killing my percentages.
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