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Subject: Sim. Sports Horse Racing -- Week 1068
Posted by: GoatLocker
- [26058212] Wed, Jun 20, 14:29
Well, let me kick this off for the week.
GoatLocker has 4 horses Sharp, and all are entered in races.
I now have horses in a second stable - GoatLockr2 - and am trying to decide whether to run them or not.
Of the 10 horses I put in for, I only got three.
Total CPU for the stable = 65K.
16111 - Big With The Night - Colt - 3 year old - TaufanxNashuaxBorboon - this was my number one pick. Came into the Stable Little Groggy - Guess I will train for a week - CPU 5K
30130 - Icy Kingdom - Mare - 8 year old - SicyosxTender KingxNijinsky II - This one I picked specifically for the Turf breeding - Should be a nice horse. Came into the Stable Ready To Go - Am going to try to find a low end MSW - CPU 25K - Now that I think about it, might start out in Europe with this one.
22870 - Gate For Bellies - Colt - 3 year old - Line In The SandxRestless NativexSecretariat - This was one of my later choices, but was intrigued by the breeding. We shall see. Came into the Stable Ready to Go - Am going to try to find a low end MSW on the East Coast - CPU 5K
26977 - Soft Mat(IRE) - Mare - 5 year old - Thatching(IRE)xDiplomat WayxDancing Moss(GB) - This was a computer choice. Need to take a look at the breeding(Do like the breeding on the Dam-Sire Line NashuaxPrinceQuilloxNasrullah). Came into the Stable Ready To Go - Not sure whether I will try to find a race a not - CPU 25K
23380 - Judge Steer - Horse - 6 year old - Tax CollectionxBatonnierxSir Ivor - This was a computer choice. Need to take a look at the breeding. Came into the Stable Blocked. - CPU 5K
If anybody is looking for horses, let me know and I'll put up the rest of the list.
Cliff |
| 1 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Wed, Jun 20, 18:16
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BTW, expect a late night posting for the race cards again this Wed. I'm betting that it takes quite a bit of CPU time to sort all the entries and match jockey and set odds and things. And this week has even more entries than last week, I think.
Race 2711, for just one example, has 72 prospective horses! One of which was mine, sigh.
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Goatlockr -- congrats on stable #2! I have to admit that I'm not super familiar with most of those lines. I've had mixed luck with the older horses. The good news is that their CPU values are low relative to their speed. This means you can mop up in CPU value restricted allowance races (assuming you can break your maiden, and after you've got 5 races in the bank). I think Sycos is a decent sim sire (off the top of my head). The other good news is that you got a mare, so you can breed quickly if she turns out to be over the hill. The danger, of course, is that you don't want to breed a crappy runner, and you won't know if she is over the hill or just lousy. Hopefully, she'll be competitive, and you won't have to worry about that possibility.
That's really strange that a drafted horse was a Little Groggy.
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| 2 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Wed, Jun 20, 20:35
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Well, the races are already carded. Time to see what's in store!
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| 3 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Wed, Jun 20, 21:34
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Madman Stables, week 1068!
Headline Race: ASR Florida Flying in South Carolina, race 7011, $100K:
Light Jupiter, 3/1, #8, going under top track jockey Mickson, Light Jupiter is the only horse outside of the favorite, Meadow Depositing, to have a shot at the $60K winnings that will be paid to the winner. Meadow Depositing will take off with early speed; Light Jupiter will hang behind. If he can break lose of the pack and time his move perfectly, he could win. Otherwise, he's likely second for a paltry $25K in winnings. :)
Babified Opossum, #7, 14/1, same race I was looking through the cards, and I figured that this race was just as good a chance for Babified as any other. And the large purse prompted this entry. This is his favorite distance, and should finish top 5. I'd love to have #1 and #3 in this race. Or maybe #2 and #3. #2 and #5 is very probable. That would be good for a nice $27K. This was my #2 choice for a race. He didn't draw into the Maryland race, 0812, that was his #1.
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Light Squawking, #5, 3005, 5/1, under Williams. This is a light 3 yo filly claimer I picked up. I tried to get her into an 8f MSW race, (the Utah race with 72 entries), and this was my backup. Surprisingly, the odds are good for this filly. In 22 races, she's had 3 seconds and 3 thirds. She has all her conditions (this is why I snagged her). Interesting to see how she runs with the boys.
Skin Jumping, #6, 1806, 99/1. OUCH. There is all sorts of early speed in this race. The odds are inflated because of this claimer's recent outings. I wanted to get a 7f test (he's never run a sprint before). I'm going to set the jockey instructions at 30% and hope the rest of the field collapses. I actually think there is a slim chance here. Call me a madman . . . (No chance for win, but top 5, yes).
Gorilla Rusty, #1, 5608, 99/1 WHAT IS UP WITH THESE ODDS? This is simply a MSW race at 6.5f to test Turf/Dirt preference for Gorilla Rusty's second race. I guess this is a sign I need to try marathons next. OUCH.
The LONG awaited Racing of Arctic Government! He's a 3/1 favorite from the 8th post position in the 12th in Kentucky (0312)! There aren't many jockeys that jump out here, but Cohen has had some recent luck. Competition will come from the inside from an unraced Danehill progeny. Honestly, however, based strictly on breeding, this should be a cruise victory.
Unfortunately, I actually want my horse to lose. ASR is having a contest coming up, and they have a 7f MSW race for 3 yo's. The ideal out come here would be an 80 speed rating (this race IS on turf) and a close 2nd place. I don't see that happening, however. But with a field of 14 runners, you are never certain. Plus, he IS unraced. . .
Straight Time, #9 in the 9th at Norway (6609), is a 3/5 Fav. This is a bit surprising. She's never run longer than 9f, and this is a 10f race. Furthermore, she's had trouble on turf (kind of). This race was an experiment. From the inside, there's a historical 92 speed at this distance at 5/1. Which makes these odds shocking for Straight Time. Hmmm. H Knott IS an incredible jockey. I got the #1 guy here. But even if you give me Straight Time's 97 speed at 9f on Dirt and apply it directly, that still doesn't give you 3/5 odds!
Hmmm. IMPORTANT Observation?? Straight Time's had better odds every time she's been tried on turf? Is it possible that the computer KNOWS which surface is better, and slightly adjusts the odds accordingly??? We shall see. If Straight Time rocks in this race, I'm going to start paying more attention to this stuff. If she collapses, then I'll know that the computer odds are full of it. I've never seen a 3/5 odds horse collapse, however.
Prize Smoking, 27/1, #5 in 2002. Hmmm. Bad odds here. This is a claimer going back into claimers. This horse has NEVER hit the board in 10 races, but has never been tried at routes. I figured it was worth a shot. We shall see.
Majestic Yodel, 7/1, #9, in 6704. 6.5f in SLOP. The slop was accidental. Her previous owner made the horrid mistake of shipping a dirt horse to Australia, and I can't get her back to the States without paying for it. Tasmania is my only place to race.
This was a bad claim on my part. She's an OK horse. But she's been well-placed. Further, she has no conditions left. Her only hope is the low 2K tag. But even that doesn't help a lot, since the best Starter Allowances for low tags tend to be for horses with a bit of endurance. Hopefully get a show and a few breed points.
East A La Run, 8/5 favorite, #9 in 1513. NOOOOO! Another favorite. Which is OK. But this is in a Maiden Claimer. I got tired of East A La Run's second's or worse, and decided to put him up for a tag (15K). He's a 5 yo, with mediocre breeding. So I hope he won't generate a lot of interest. But he's also a useful horse, dang it. And being an 8/5 favorite, he'll attract some attention. Sigh. Oh well. He's not my favorite horse. It's just that I hate to see a capable runner leave my stables. My back up race was 4410 -- and only 4 horses ended up in that one. Doh!
Diver J. B., #5 in the Drinch Starter, 7013, and goes at 6/1 odds -- second favorite He's got a mediocre jockey. And Exotic Dance, a 6/5 favorite, is EASY betting money if you ask me. Maybe an exacta play here? Need to see if anyone might beat Diver. Most of these horses are pretty bad, however. Tidy $40K purse. I'd be thrilled with a $10K second :)
Alot Under Run, #14 in 4109, 45/1 odds If this guy wasn't starting from a crappy position, he'd be money in the bank. He got injured in his first race, but is now sharp! Based on his pedigree, he has a real chance to win. I'm putting some SHOW money on him at these odds!
West on the Fan, #14 in 6115, 18/1 odds This horse has such great breeding, but a HORRIBLE first asking has killed his odds. Might be worth a look-see for betting. Or maybe not.
December Chop, #8 in 1610, 60/1 odds WHOA. Oops. Bad entry. Allowance race restricted to non-winner of 2 in last 6 months. Aargh. There are some real stud horses here. I wanted a turf try. I guess I got it. He shouldn't do much on turf, anyway. But this puts a failure on the record before he hits the claiming ranks.
Rate Learn, #14 in 1111, 4/1 odds, favorite WHAT THE H#%$? I figured that Rate Learn seems to always be around 65 speed, no matter what the distance. So why not try a 12f race? Maybe he takes after Herbager. At any rate, there are a lot of horses like Rate Learn in this race. Not sure why Rate Learn is the favorite. Unless the computer knows something about the probability that he can actually run marathons. If he gets claimed, no big loss here.
Man alive. Is that all that's on tap this week!
WOW. I've got to add that up. Several favorites, several last placers! And potential for TONS of earnings. . .
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| 4 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Wed, Jun 20, 22:55
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From the Cab stable:
Pepi undercut...Race 0503...#9..10/1...Have tried the shorter races with limited success(actually none!)so this is a 8.5f dirt try...I *think* he needs to go longer so we will see..It's a 36k msw in La.
Sloppy station ...race 7112..#8..14/1...First time in the allowances ranks ..This is slightly longer than his last race(8.5f)..
Prince Beau...race 4113..#2..18/1...This claimer is having his first start for me..Is back in the claiming ranks(10k)...Previous owner has been running him in sprints recently without a lot of success so thought a route race was worth the try..Has a best sp# of 92(8f)(a way back) so perhaps has some potential...Very versatile winning on dirt/turf and sprints/routes..
The Clam...race 4615..#4...7/2..I tossed and turned all week about starting him again...There really wasn't a lot of options for him ...In the end i shipped him to North Florida for a 42k allowance race at 8f..Has Gillette on board,a capable jock..Is 3rd fav in this four horse field...(NO predictions from me this week!!!)
PEPE31
Fourth bingo ...6604.#8..21/1...Another 8.5f turf try for this guy..I want to keep going longer but unless he breaks his maiden there aren't a lot of long races for 3yo's (yet)unless it is in the claiming races...Will see if that last race was a one off(i know it wasn't great but a huge improvement from his consistent 50's)..Has Knott on board as well...Hope this helps him..
Amy donkey..race 3205..#13..14/1..She hits the claiming races(15k)..Wouldn't think she has a chance but who knows..
CAB31
Raindrop mark..0703...#10..14/1...A 8f turf try for him...See how he compares with the dirt effort..
Hick succeeding...race 3010...#7..12/1...I know,i know i said i wouldn't run horses back to back but i changed my mind..again!!..
Sparky brush...2312..#11..23/1..
Hmmmmmm...
The odds makers are not that kind to me..Have never been fav or near fav yet...I guess it means i'm not placing them too well?..or they are just glue factory material?....Anyways good luck with your races everyone and good luck to you Madman in that 100k race...I hope LJ can bring home the bacon for you!
A question on breeding...I think it says somewhere a horse has to be at least 5yo and run 5 or 6 races before it can be eliminated..Is that right?...Am looking at producing my first baby sometime in the near future!!...
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| 5 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Thu, Jun 21, 00:19
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Cab -- longer 3 yo maiden races are on the way, I think. One more month.
Regarding breeding, there are two ways to do it.
1) From scratch. Pick 3 sires (sire, dam-sire, and dam's dam-sire). Any horse can be eliminated for this type of breeding.
2) Using the eliminated horse's lineage. If you do this, the horse has to be at least 5 years old, and have run 6 races. The horse's sire becomes the new horse's dam-sire. The horse's dam-sire becomes the dam's dam-sire.
Furthermore, you pay a 50 point breeding penalty for this if you eliminate a mare, and a 125 breeding point penalty for eliminating a male.
Finally, the race ability of the horse to be eliminated carries through to some extent with this last option.
Obviously, all 3 of my horses have been pure bargain breeds. This means that I've started from scratch. Notice that when you start from scratch, if the point total is less than 100, the point cost is halved. Furthermore, the dam's dam-sire is ALWAYS halved.
Thus for example, Emigrants Peak x Beaudelaire x Nureyever cost me 49 points. Emigrants Peak was 16, Beaudelaire was 22, Nureyev was 122/2=61. That totals to 99, which is under the 100 point bargain breed limit, meaning I got half-price -- 49 points.
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Well, I don't think having a lot of favorites necessarily means that you aren't placing well. I had 4 favorites this week, plus a few more almost favorites, but also had two 99/1 shots, a 60/1 and a 45/1!!!! does this mean I'm a good trainer or a bad one???
I think you have to sometimes "push" your horses. Many could look at my recent record and chastise me for placing a few horses into Stakes races when they weren't even allowance quality. But I've finished 4th or better in all 4 of those Stakes races, and as high as second. I won more money in earnings this way than if I would have won an extremely cheap allowance race (which I probably couldn't have done - - the presence of tough allowance fields pushed me into the Stakes races). None of those Stakes horses had a chance to win. Was that bad training?
Similarly, for many of us starting out with newbie stables, you HAVE to experiment with your horses. This means that it's important to stay in MSW and higher tag claimers until you are convinced your horses are as bad as they appear. While you are experimenting, you are going to have bad odds.
Now, three months from now, after all of our horses have broken their maidens (I hope), if we are still getting 50/1 and 70/1 shots and also not earning any winnings, I'll retract all this.
The definition of a "good" and "bad" trainer is hard to come by, IMO.
Personally, I'm taking great satisfaction in seeing 5K or under claimers like Light Jupiter, Diver J. B., Our Nooses, and Babified Opossum win races, place in the top 3, and set personal best speed ratings. I'm also enjoyed taking Straight Time, a 20K claimer, and finishing 2nd in a Stakes race, and having those kind of odds in a 10f race. If she can succeed at route races, I'll take great pride in that acquisition. Similarly, if Skin Jumping and others turn out to be able to run where I think they can run, I'll take a lot of pride in that. I think those facts are signs of good training -- if I can do it repeatedly, and if I can continue to do it after the bonus of being a newbie has worn out.
But doing those sorts of things will result in long odds for your horses, and some dismal failures (see Babified Opossum's 8f Dirt test! OUCH!).
To some extent, smart drafting is also probably a sign of good training. But there's also a lot of luck involved. Which horses were available when you drafted? How many others drafted the same horses you did? Etc., etc.
Finally, I think I've worked out some "holes" in the sim's breeding system, perhaps. If true, then I think I can breed a number of bargain breeds to be decent horses. And that's another sort of good trainer.
I think there are all sorts of ways to be a "good" trainer. That's one reason this game is cool. We can all win races and compete at the parts of the game we enjoy, whether that's being a claimer stable, a breeding stable, or whatever.
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| 6 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Thu, Jun 21, 03:13
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BTW, in case you guys haven't figured out my devious plan, I post my complete race cards to these boards. On Saturday, I check THIS list to watch all my races. Plus, by putting the # down and race number, I can easily submit bets. I'm using the Guru's forum here as a way to a) track my history and b) keep track of my stables, while simultaneously maybe helping to share my experiences and help each other get better. :) hehehe.
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| 7 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 1418917
Thu, Jun 21, 08:20
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A relatively quiet week at Toral Centre. One ambitious placement at 16-1, and 6 other horses all running at odds of between 5-1 and 9-1.
The ambitious placement is my prize 2-year old, City O'Gold, who goes to Maryland for their $$$ added Hurd festival. He goes off at 16-1 in the Hurd juvenile 0810. By speed figures he should not be competitive at all, but if he's going to improve I figure this is as good a place as any. I thot perhaps the Hurd might dilute the quality of nearby MSWs, but a quick look at my 2nd choice's sign-ups convinced me that was not the case; there were a couple horses there who looked like they could be favourites in the Juvenile. Settling for Prescott as the jock, which suggests to me that Mahdia must have been clicking all week to come up with 50++ Activity Points. There are 2 other Carson City progeny in PPs 1 and 2; hopefully they'll have a sibling quarrel in the gate. Now all I have to do is figure out who or what Hurd is.
In Alabama, Counting for Way goes off at 5-1 in $10K claimer 3212 under Prescott, one of the track's 2 best jocks. Should be competitive.
Chief Northern is a-wearin' the green in 5905, a $200K CPU allowance in the Emerald Isle. Being as his CPU value is $200K exactly, seemed like an appropriate spot. Can Frazetto at 10-1 from PP1 is rather frightening, having run 92 and 99 in his last 2 7.5/8 dirt tries. The Chief runs from way outside and is probably due for a downward bounce. Top jock, Kentucky.
I have a soft spot for Carson progeny, and Pennsylvania seems to have ended its cheap track-restricted claimer series, so I decided to let Hollow Carson have a run in the greatest place in the world, in a $7500 claimer 2805 at 8-1. This is the first time Hollow has been sharp for me, so I'm letting him run right back. Good jock in Linville.
My bad-luck horse, Dan's Forest goes off at 6-1 under Shove in Germany's 9th. This is the filly I shipped to Europe by mistake. I just want her to have a few decent races so I can auction her off for something or lose her in a claimer. Every time I see her name my blood pressure goes up as I'm reminded how stupid I am. She's not sharp. As for her chances...well, she's lightly raced!
Chief Tom attempts to repeat his wire-to-wire in the slop routine in North Carolina's $85K-CPU Allowance 4010. As a handicapper I fear a speed duel with Single City, by Carson City. Note that almost all Single's earnings have come in his 3 off races; Carson City is a devastatinbg slop sire. At least I'm to his inside. No bet.
Quiet week for Toral2. $1667 auction pickup Soul Way is 5-1 2nd favourite in a $10K MC on the turf at a maile and an eighth in Denmark's 12th. A few breeding points would be welcome.
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Larot Stables' 2 auctioned horses, who cost $3018 at auction, have already attracted bids of $5K and $3K, so I feel a little better about their bad experience here. It's not as if my handling of them improved their form either.
Toral
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| 8 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 1418917
Thu, Jun 21, 08:41
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Madman5 You are so naughty! That teaser about finding a hole in the breeding...now I have to reverse engineer your home breds to try to figure out what is going on. Ah well, I guess it's good to be challenged.
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I'll put my opinion of the problem of low turf speed figures and Ace Horse ranking here, so as not to clutter that thread. I basically agree with everyone else. Stick to 90+. After adding Kangaroo ;)
More seriously, the problem of turf speed figures reminds me of something I realized recently: the sim's speed figures aren't Beyer-type at all. I realized this originally when Madman was able to calculate them; if you can calculate them with a simple formula, they aren't Beyers. More importantly, the lower turf figures show that the system isn't Beyer-like. The whole point of that system is comparability; the average winner in a $10K 6-furlong dirt race should have the same figure as the average winner in a $10K 2-mile turfer at the same track (with the same purse). (The first step in Beyer figuring is calculating par times for similar-value horses at different distances). This means that it should be theoretically possible to do just what Andrew Beyer did and design a more accurate speed figure system for this sim. I'm trying to think what one could gain from that, however...I guess it might help is assessing surface-versatile horses who run first at the turf and then switch to dirt. Of course, you only know they're surface-versatile after they run, so you have to go by their breeding, which is a crap shoot. Well, I'm sure there's money to be made there somehow....
Toral
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| 9 | GoatLocker
ID: 26058212
Thu, Jun 21, 12:57
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GoatLocker Stables, Week 1068.
GoatLocker
Stock Geri, 5/1, #12, 1915, under G. Daniels the #3 jockey. 6-1/2f fast dirt. If she improves on her 71 first race, should be very competitive in this.
Hoping for my first win. She ran 4th the first time out.
Passively Find, 13/1, #6, 2412, under F. Mac, the #1 jockey. one mile fast dirt. Not real high SP #s on this one, but let's see what my claims can do.
Eator Cooter, 15/1, #5, 2111, under B. Castillo, the #2 jockey. 6f fast dirt. Should fit okay with these. Another with not real high SP #s.
Join VIP Stable, 99/1, #13, 2414, under S. Erickson, the #2 jockey. Not sure I understand the odds on this one. $12.6 allowance that I thought the horse fit pretty good. Guess we will just wait and see. The race I claimed him out of was a claimer for 4K. Maybe I did put him in over his head. 6-1/2f fast dirt.
All of the horses that are running from this barn are sharp, and since I feel good about the jockey draw, will leave the running up to the jockeys and put all of them Full Out.
GoatLockr2
Icy Kingdom, 11/1, #6, 0706, under F. Alford, the # 2 jockey. This is a mile and a sixteenth on firm turf. Breeding says the distance and surface should work. Would have liked to have seen the odds a little lower. Hope she comes out running.
Gate For Bellies, 7/2 - And the Favorite, #5, 6109, under M. Marando, the #3 jockey. A mile and a sixteenth fast dirt. Again, hope she comes out running.
Soft Mat, 10/1, #5, 2504, under B. Sipe, the #1 jockey. A mile and one eighth fast dirt. Think she fits this race real one and like the jockey draw.
The three horses running from this stable are all RTG
QUESTION
Should RTG horses be ran full out?
With my first stable, I ran the first race for all of my horses at .99. Should I stay there, or try Full Out?
Thanks for the help.
Cliff
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| 10 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 1418917
Thu, Jun 21, 13:07
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Goatlocker9 IMO, horses run 1st time out RTG might as well be run full out, unless you're sure they aren't going to win and you intend the race only as a toner upper, to get an older horse sharp to run next week. Your odds suggest all 3 have a chance, so I'd go full out. A couple of Gurupie horses have won first time out; yours might as well join them.
Toral
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| 11 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Thu, Jun 21, 13:25
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Goatlocker -- should RTG horses be run full out? It depends. I've always run RTG horses full out on their first offering, since you have no idea of the quality.
After that first race, however, I would consider going less than 100%. It depends on the race. I think I've pulled horses back from 100% twice. Both times I felt they were VERY outclassed by their fields, and they were RTG or a Sharp that I didn't trust. In those cases, back off, and I think you may find that the next time out is a good run.
But if your horses are RTG and have reasonable odds to place, I'd just gun 'em and see what happens. Regarding the 99% thing, I'd go 100% in those 3 Goat2 stables. You want a good read on what they can do. At 99%, you never know if the jockey actually pulled back, or if he stayed in there for the win. Notice that 99% just means how long the jockey tries to hang in there before giving up - - but if he still has a chance to win, he always goes for it.
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Toral -- I assume you're referring to my post on the Sim boards about calculating the Speed Ratings. Yep. I figured out that the speed ratings are directly based on the time of the race (for the winners). No other adjustments. The speed ratings for the remaining horses are then adjusted for the lengths back (the effect varies by length of race, of course).
I agree they are not Beyers. I still haven't looked up the resources that you told me to, but based on what you've described, these are not the same things. I should note that I calculate them in the Super Sim Searcher from the raceout.zip's. But that wouldn't mean they aren't Beyer's, since the raceouts themselves simply (after you crack the code) give you the speed numbers.
I'm pretty sure a decent amount of money is to be made here. The problem is that there are just so many danged ways to do it. I still haven't figured out the best betting strategy.
Basically, the computer odds makers rely on past speed ratings, I'm pretty sure, to come up with current odds. So, clearly, any horse that runs at an off-distance in recent weeks is going to be under valued. So one betting strategy would be to just look for horses with marathon races in their last offering, and who are returning to sprints. You could make a bundle that way.
Another strategy would be to study the tracks. I think some tracks just give lower speed ratings than others. Does the computer adjust the odds for this effect? Actually it might. But it also might not. This is the sort of thing a Beyer would capture, I think, since a good speed rating should be track independent (i.e., study how runners from Ostend perform when going to other tracks, and adjust accordingly).
Another strategy is to bet on all the under-dog 2 yo's. As you noted, the computer odds are heavy on the royal breeding. However, this is somewhat irrational. There's always a thread on the ASR message boards detailing all the small 2 yo horses that are going at above odds. They've made money, they claim. The only week I tried this I got seriously burned.
Personally, I think I'm sticking to my strategy of betting winners who are advertised by players in the sim, and personal horses that I know something about (this is the advantage of having you guys post, it gives me more betting options). This week, I'm putting Show money on Alot Under Run (although I'm going to give the race 1 more look-see). And I think I'll probably put some win money on the favorite in Diver J.B.'s race. And maybe an exacta play on that one.
And I'm sure some more will come along.
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| 12 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 1418917
Thu, Jun 21, 13:46
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Madman 11 Actually I posted the above before seeing your interesting discussion on the message boards. As soon as I saw your Ace Gurupie horse list with speed ratings calculated (by you, I assumed) to one decimal, I realized that the sim ratings had to be what I would call pre-Beyer. They're smartened up a bit from the old days in that they consider the length of race in determining the effect of being a length back. (Not to beat a dead horse, but Beyers can't be calculated by formula because the daily track variant can change *during* a day, among other reasons.)
As you say, being track independent is essential to a good speed rating. The big money Beyer made when he devised them was in being able to assess accurately the ability of horses shipping in from a lesser quality track. Betters used to ignore their actual times at those lesser tracks, thinking that the horses lacked some ineffable quality called class.
The first short-run conclusion I draw from the turf/dirt discussion is to look for proven dirt horses who have run their last few on turf, even if they are good there, as their normalized speed ratings should be somewhat better than the sim shows. I think that's the same conclusion come to by folks on the main message board.
Toral
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| 13 | GoatLocker
ID: 26058212
Thu, Jun 21, 14:30
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Toral - Madman,
Thanks, I will run them at All Out.
Guess it does make sense when I stop and think about it.
Still trying to grasp the intimacies of the Sim.
Good Discussion on Beyers.
I do happen to be a speed handicapper.
Cliff
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| 14 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Thu, Jun 21, 14:34
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Toral -- I actualy don't calculate the speed ratings to one decimal. The raceout.zip has the encoded speed rating in it. I'm just reporting it to one decimal. Thus, those *could* theoretically be Beyers.
The evidence against them being Beyers is the fact that the speed numbers I found in the raceout.zips (and that he posts) are directly tied to times. Or maybe times are directly tied to the speed ratings? Either way, there shouldn't be a 1 to 1 relationship between Beyers and time. Thus, either these aren't Beyers, or the times that are listed aren't really "times". Remember, this is a sim, so we can't really tell what is "fake" from what is "real".
As Scalia said in his PGA dissent -- with a wholly made up game, you can't distinguish between that which is fundamental and that which is not. Are the times accurate, and the speed ratings therefore non-Beyer? Or is the whole sim pegged to Beyers, and he threw in an estimate for a time because someone wanted to see that?? :)
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| 16 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Fri, Jun 22, 21:58
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Wuhoo!!! One of my submissions made the finals for the "Name the Baby Contest"! Wow. So cool.
Roy's Name the Baby Contest
A real live homebred might be carrying my moniker around her neck!
Plus, I now have a 1/6 shot at a cool 2 yo.
Too cool.
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| 17 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Fri, Jun 22, 22:05
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I see that the winner of the 2 yo will be announced Monday. Man alive. It's an Irish River, Sassafras, Dr. Fager filly or colt. Check out that breeding!
Madman reminds himself there's an 83 percent chance that it won't be his.
Madman, however, wants to remind the Madman that there is a 17 percent chance that it will be ;) . . .
Finally, Madman realizes why he chose Madman to be his moniker . . .
Although, honestly, I almost think it would be cooler for the real life filly to turn out to be a winner (and bear my nick, of course, although it looks like mine was #6 of 6).
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| 18 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 1418917
Sat, Jun 23, 00:07
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I am totally PO'ed. My name submissions were the best! And to be beat out on naming horses by a person to whom I recommended and introduced the game! I expected to be able to saunter in here and say that *I* was the one to be in the finals! This makes me feel, frankly, very inadequate.
Ah well. Madman, I wish you well.
Horse Racing has always been a game where one learns humility.
Toral
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| 19 | GoatLocker
ID: 44461114
Sat, Jun 23, 10:10
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I can't believe that my names didn't get me into the top 6.
And I thought I knew a little about naming horses.
Will have to be content with hopefully knowing somebody who wins through these boards ;)
Hope everybody has a great day of racing.
Cliff
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| 20 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Jun 23, 11:56
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Hey, sorry guys. Toral -- if you didn't want the heat, you shouldn't have invited me to the kitchen :).
As I said, I was 6th, I think, so you have 5 other people in front of me to blame :).
I've only watched 3 of my races so far, but I am super pumped!
In the South Carolina "Florida Flying" make-up, I took 1-2!
Light Jupiter won 60K (97.0), and Babified took second, good for 25K and a personal best 92.0!
Diver finished a disappointing 5th, but that still gets a few points, and he had a reasonable 85 speed rating.
Alot Under Run cost me big time on the betting, and waddled home in a 67. But I covered his bet with two others, so I'm up reasonably well overall. . .
Of course, Mike screwed the raceout.zip file up. AARGH.
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| 21 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Jun 23, 12:22
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Holy Crap. One of my 99/1 shots WON with a 101.0 speed!!!!
Skin Jumping 1806!! Paid $205!! Why didn't I have the guts to bet!
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| 22 | GoatLocker
ID: 44461114
Sat, Jun 23, 12:58
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Nice catch Madman.
GoatLocker Stables got their first win.
Stock Geri paid $13.40, $7.90, and $5.10 in the 15th race at Iowa.
How are you getting the SPs so quick, what do I need to download and where can I find it.
Thanks,
Cliff
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| 23 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Jun 23, 13:07
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Holy crap. I was just going to post that your Stock Geri won. Guess the SP????
96.6! The fastest Gurupie 3 yo yet! You and Clam have a fight brewing, I can see!
I'm using the Super Sim Searcher (see the related thread here, or visit Mr. Coker's site), although I had to fix the raceout.zip file this week (not sure why). You can visit the ASR message boards and see the link to the corrected raceout.zip.
Another option that people have used is Mr. Coker's race viewer -- which reports the speed numbers rounded to the nearest whole number.
Arctic Government shot down my faith in Miswaki. 61 speed. OUCH.
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| 24 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Sat, Jun 23, 14:25
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Well i waited and waited for that viewer to be fixed and the anticipation was killing me so i had to look at the results..lol
Cab stable managed a first and a second from the four starters..The Clam won his race in a slighly slower time than his last win..Pepi undercut ran second in a 42k msw..Sloppy station ran 5th in his first start in the allowance ranks..encouraging enough..Prince beau disappointed running down the track..
Pepe stable had a very surprising second from AMY DONKEY!..Wow!!!!..She ran in a maiden claim race...There is hope yet!!..Forth bingo is back to his true form and ran down the track..
Cab31 hit the boards with a second from 3yo, Raindrop mark in his msw race while Sparky brush finished fourth..Hick succeeding is the one heading for the glue factory in this stable, finishing down the track again...
All in all a good weeks racing...7 starts-1 win-3 seconds-1 fourth and 1 fifth..(boy,i wish i had the patience to watch these races before i looked at the results!!)
The only 2 bets i made(smallish ones)for each stable also came in so that also helps the finances..(the clam and one i saw on the mb)
Looking like a good week allround for Gurupies!!
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| 25 | GoatLocker
ID: 44461114
Sat, Jun 23, 15:05
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Forgot to mention the other good thing about Stock Geri was that I had $200 Across and an exacta with the 2nd place finisher for $20.
Cliff
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| 26 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Jun 23, 15:20
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Cab -- I'd recommend downloading the official viewer from the sim site, as well as Mr. Coker's viewer. But I am a tinkerer, too.
Basically, Mr. Coker's viewer almost always works. And the Official Viewer is my backup in case the HTML stuff on the site doesn't work. I didn't even realize what a mess this would be for most people until after I was trying to fix that darned raceout.zip . . .
Honestly, Mike's service has been pretty bad lately. Oh well. Unlike SW, there isn't any time-sensitive information here.
Good job -- 4 of 7 in the money! Very solid percentage.
__________________
Goatlocker -- congrats on the bets. Stock Geri looks very impressive. Care to trade? I'll offer you Light Jupiter and Jinx Understand and Stark Secret? Hahaha. Mike doesn't allow that.
____________________
BTW, I had Jinx Understand entered into a Minnesota Claimer, where he finished 2nd. Meaning that my week was 16-4-4-0, good for 50% in the money.
Of course, the payoff of $99,220 in earnings was huge, thanks to the 2 guys in the Florida Flying. . . I made a few grand in betting, so I'm happy.
Although I really wish the claims would get posted here. . . So I knew who I lost and who I gained . . .
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| 27 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 1418917
Sat, Jun 23, 16:48
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Congrats to all the Gurupies with good days above.
A solid but unspectatcular day here, with lots of 2nd place finishes like last week. One win: despite my fears, Chief Tom went wire-to-wire in the slop again. Single City, the rival I feared, did indeed challenge the Chief for the lead but the Chief pulled away. The inevitable closer came up for second place but couldn't catch the Chief.
Hollow Carson charged to finish 2nd in his unrestricted cheap claim claimer at Woodbine. Chief Northern 2nd in Ireland. Counting For Way second in Alabama. An encouraging 4th for Dan's Forest off a long layoff in Germany.
Only big disappointment is the putative star 2-year old, City O'Gold, who showed nothing in the Hurd Juvenile. I'll have to think about this horse.
-------------
Among all the great winning stories from Gurupies above, my favourite is Madman's Skin Jumping. Never tested in sprints and picked up for nothing. Makes one glad the game doesn't have an e-mail function. What a temptation to e-mail the previous owners and say "Thanx for the horse! He just ran a 101!" As stables get over 20 races, that's the kind of opportunities people have to look for. Great horsemanship.
Wonder if anybody hit that tri?
Toral
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| 28 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 340491814
Sat, Jun 23, 18:32
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I entered 3 races this week. 2 claimers and a MSW. Mass Point came away with a 3d (5 horse field) in a $7500 claimer, One Night Lover got a 4th (4 horse field) in a $15K claimer in NB, and Country Water who came in dead last last week came in 5th in a MSW race. Not too exciting, but I didn't expect much from them either.
Nice race Goatlocker, a 96.6, wow, guess you know something about points! Congrats to all this week.
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| 29 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 340491814
Sat, Jun 23, 18:40
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oops, that was supposed to say guess you know something about ponies.
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| 30 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Jun 23, 22:27
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Toral -- City O'gold improved to a 57 speed rating. I know he's not doing as well as his breeding would suggest, but he's getting there. I wouldn't give up until you've tried him at 6-7f. Heck, you maybe should even do a turf try; I know there's little chance of a Carson City kick arse on turf, but this is the SIM Carson City, and who knows. I bet he's programmed in a 1-2% chance that a horse will be something totally AWOL from his breeding . . .
Regarding the email thing, I really, really would like to thank Lara Croft and doodlesgbs. Amazingly, I bet that both of them feel pretty good about themselves right now.
Laracroft obtained Skin Jumping in Auction, and won $1200 and 20-25 points, plus the $2,500 claiming fee. I tried, unsuccessfully, to obtain Skin Jumping from her directly.
Instead, doodlesgbs bought him. He was entered into one claiming race; after the race, I bought him for a 60% markup (to $4,000), and Doodlesgbs won a couple of breeding points in the meantime.
Laracroft and Doodlesgbs are probably going "Cool. I won a few thousand dollars and a few points off a cheap claimer." Thus my desire to email and say, ahem "101.0. Gurupies Rule!" hahaha.
I of course am already up a net of $680 and 10 points. Plus, who knows how fast he'll run if he goes a bit shorter even.
I should retract something. Skin Jumping had actually run in 2 sprints and gotten his arse handed to him. A 68 speed in early 800's, and a 54 speed as a 2 yo in his first race. (hint -- gives you hope for City O'Gold??). But the key is that both tries were on the wrong surface, not to mention ages ago. So I should have said that I knew he hadn't been tried in dirt sprints. Obviously, it takes more work to find holes like that.
Kind of embarrassing, but every single 90+ claimer I've snagged has been largely because of this sort of extensive history that I have access to with the Super Sim Searcher. I've obviously had no luck with 3 yo's . . .
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| 31 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Sun, Jun 24, 05:04
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Stables have been updated...
I tried to download that viewer Madman,however i don't have files that are needed for it...dll or something...actually haven't had much luck downloading any of the stuff available(including your simsearcher)..Oh well ,i will just plod on..:)
Some highlights for me this week:
Pepi came through with a 88sp #..I looked at the winners time this morning and thought he may have just got to 90...not to be but still very happy with this effort...I don't think a win is too far away for Pepi..
The Clam had a 93 sp...good enough for the win...His cpu value took another large leap(after dropping 200k last week)..It is now 1.7 mil..His earnings are nearly double what he had,53k..
The only real mistake i made was shipping him so far,i think it cost 7bps...Oh well,I really did need that stakes money...
(Pepi's cpu value doubled this week too btw, to over 400k...amazing what a good placing does)
Collected over 34k in stakes money this week to get me over 65k earned so far for the Cab stable...
Raindrop mark had a sp of 77 a nice jump from 64 last start..while Sparky brush took a nice leap from 56 to 76...Hick succeeding was poor...needs to be on the grass i think..
Amy donkey took 2nd with a 58 sp??...wow..lol..
Now that there is a bit of dough in the bank i think i will be hitting the claimers for a sacrificial horse for a breeding next week...I tried the auction for a 16 dollar super-cheapie..It didn't work for me..Claiming one seems like the easiest way even if it does cost more..
Would have to agree with you Toral...a 99/1 shot coming in..wowee!!...
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| 32 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sun, Jun 24, 13:32
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Cab -- have you downloaded all the files the Sim Searcher needs? I.e., have you followed the two links to microsoft and installed all those parts?
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| 33 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 340491814
Sun, Jun 24, 13:35
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One Night Lover lived up to his name. I lost the 4yo homebred I claimed last week for $2k in a $15K claiming race. Nice way to make money. I'm not sure what the person saw in him that I didn't. Must have been the Thunder Gulch/Cure the Blues line. I just wanted a homebred to race against weaker fields. Picked up a 5 yo ($2.5K)in the stlcards3 stable, Celtic Connection. Not who I wanted, already having 3 wins, (all within the last 9 months) but should be able to find a claimer race somewhere for him.
The irritating thing for me is that this week out of 3 stables I have only 1 horse that is sharp. An overworked 2yo I claimed a few weeks ago is up to lay off (from injured), another horse is up to a little groggy (an original drafted horse in week 1040 that came to the stable lay off), and even a blocked horse that needs rest. I'm just going to run the 1 sharp horse I guess this week and try to pick up some claimers. I never seem to get any of the ones I want though. Tough game to figure out.
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| 34 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sun, Jun 24, 13:42
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I'm getting worse and worse at getting claimers. With only 1-2 spots open per stable, I guess my odds are really cut.
A blocked horse that needs rest? Huh? Make sure you're using the Train for week option. After the stable update, I immediately set this option for all the horses in all my stables.
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| 35 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Sun, Jun 24, 14:12
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Madman...I haven't downloaded those things yet...I am pretty much computer illeterate and to be honest i am not sure if this thing will handle it!!...I am going to give it another try though..
A nice little profit with One night lover Cards..I wish that someone would take mine off me!!...For a profit of course..
I too set the training option pretty much as soon as i can...I have no idea if this helps or not but most horses that have come back from the races healthy(A little groggy or better)are sharp within 3 to 4 weeks and sooner in some cases...I have five sharp this week to find races for...
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| 36 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Mon, Jun 25, 22:55
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I had another go at the SSS Madman and got it working...It is going to be one heck of a tool alright!!..Am still in the process of downloading the raceout zips...Can't wait to get all the races in there and start playing with it!...
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| 37 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Thu, Jun 28, 04:49
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A Quick recap of the Week 1068 averages, for those who may have missed them:
Dirt: 72.5 (in 6260 races)
Turf: 65.2 (in 3153 races)
A difference of 7.3 points, down from the 7.5 of last time.
I've been reprogramming the SSS for wildcard searches, and the following interesting stats popped out. These are the fastest times recorded by any single horse at each given surface/distance listed. . . 6f refers to either 6 or 6.5f, 7 refers to 7 or 7.5f, etc.
______________________________________________
Dirt:
4-5: 106.7 (1218)
6: 121.4 (2416)
7: 117.1 (476)
8: 115.2 (1432)
9: 110.8 (507)
10: 105.3 (143)
11: 95.5 (33)
12+:102.3 (94)
TOTAL: 121.4 in 6319 dirt races (note this total is different from the previous total, since this includes all sub 30 speed performances).
TURF:
4-5: 98.4 (378)
6: 107.7 (647)
7: 111.5 (250)
8: 112.9 (1247)
9: 109.4 (317)
10: 107.7 (187)
11: 87.5 (30)
12+: 105.6 (159)
TOTAL: 112.9 (3215)
CONCLUSION:
Turf 9f or longer races MIGHT be as fast as dirt races. In roughly the same number of attempts, turf was slightly worse at 9f, better at 10f, 8 worse at 11f, and 3 better at 12+ (although they had 60% more attempts at 12+).
The differences come at 8f and under, where the turf champs just don't perform.
The Turf best was 2.3 down at 8f, 5.6 down at 7, 14 down at 6, and 8 down at 4-5. Partly, this is due to a *much* smaller race schedule.
However, we also know that the overall averages are lower. Thus, it is reasonable to GUESS that basically dirt runners are very deep AND very high quality at 6-8f, pushing the dirt averages up. I would bet (although this doesn't prove) that the biggest difference in Dirt/Turf averages are coming because of this huge difference in 8f and under races.
Conversely, the turf marathoners are "putting away" their dirt counterparts.
All of this, of course, is consistent with the idea that turf runners are stronger in the distances AND hurt a bit overall in the sim.
As always, past performances are not indicative of future returns, and use at your own risk. :)
I didn't want to lose the above post that I made in the ASR forum. . . Should be interesting to see how this trend holds up.
________________________________
How's the import going, cab? I hate to say this, but I just decided to go ahead and add a bit to the import stuff.
Post if you're not done yet. Basically, this new import routine pulls in whether or not the race was Filly only, AND it pulls in the restrictions that it was run at. Pretty cool.
But the new version will work with the old data -- it just won't list all this new information. The only way to get this new stuff will be to erase the old data and pull in all the raceout.zip's again. The only "ugliness" is that the notation changes a bit.
For example, a 3 yo restricted races used to be "3yo". Now, if it was an Open race, it appears as "O-3". Allowance races look like:
A2L for a non-winner of TWO in a lifetime,
A-H for a homebred restricted,
Alw for open allowance races only (or allowance races that I couldn't figure out).
I hope you didn't destroy the raceout's! But don't panic. As I said, there's no big deal if you use the new version (not posted yet) with the old data.
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| 38 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Thu, Jun 28, 09:14
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I'm not sure what to make of those stats or if any thing can be drawn from them but pretty awesome stuff anyway Madman!...I think basically though,that it doesn't really matter how fast they go,so long as they can win the race! Even if it is a 50 or 60 sp #...What does stand out though is the pronounced number of dirt races versus turf races...nearly 66 % versus 33%...I wonder if those proportions are represented by "dirt" versus "turf" horses?..or the "dirt" sires versus "turf" sires in the sim for that matter?..Maybe it doesn't matter so much for the sires now that i think about it...Interesting stuff though..
I have only gone back as far as week 900 or so Madman...I just haven't had the time to do anymore this week...Should i wait till you have updated now,or carry on?...Will probably not get any more done until Sunday/Monday now anyhow...What raceouts i have downloaded i still have on this machine....somewhere..lol..So i don't think it would be too much of a problem to re-import them(i guess thats all you need to do?)
BTW...Some raceouts i have a few problems downloading...It only seems to download 70 or 80kb and then says it is finished(and of course the import will not work)....Some i had to try 2 or 3 times before it fully downloaded...Is it me or this machine?...Or is just a glitch that happens?..
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