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Subject: Here is a proposition.
Posted by: Fletch
- [51529288] Mon, Jul 02, 11:27
How bout we start a Gurupie stable that everyone controls. What I mean is, there are numerous stables in the sim that are run by multiple trainers. They share the responsibility. This would be an excellent way for us to share advice/ strategy on what we do. Everything will come down to majority vote as far as what races, when to bred, who to bred to, etc. I have requested a stable name from mike under the name of gurupie. Anyone interested?
Fletch
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| 1 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Mon, Jul 02, 11:31
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Sounds like a good way to learn to me. I'm all for it. I was thinking about starting a new stable the other day and looked through available horses and basically came up with nothing. It will be interesting to see which horses people suggest and why.
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| 2 | Fletch
ID: 51529288
Mon, Jul 02, 11:32
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If you are interested, then e-mail me at fletchlives_72@yahoo.com, and I will give you the password. I don't think I should be posting that over a public board :). Also, I submitted to have the computer pick random horses.
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| 3 | JKaye, Guru Jr.
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Mon, Jul 02, 12:04
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In another thread I mentioned that my friend started a stable and got a star horse(by chance), named Sixth Deputy(stable devil01). Now he really isn't that into HR, and only started a stable because I annoyed him about it.
His time seems to have evaporated, and he gave me the stable. I really don't want to manage an entire new stable, but how about this horse becomes a "gurupie" horse, and similar to fletch's idea, we would discuss/vote where to race him, etc. Just a thought, in case this horse is really a superstar. I'd hate to see it go to waste because of my friend's lack of time.
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| 4 | Fletch
ID: 51529288
Mon, Jul 02, 12:12
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Excellent idea JKaye. It would be nice to be associated with a Star horse. In 12 stables, I have a couple of "good" horses, but no stars.
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| 5 | GoatLocker
ID: 44461114
Mon, Jul 02, 19:54
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Both ideas sound good to me.
Will contribute as much as I can.
Time has been at a premium lately.
Cliff
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| 6 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Mon, Jul 02, 20:04
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Both ideas sound good to me to. I'm not sure I really want the responsibility of knowing the password, however. Unless there is some benefit to that. . . :)
Managing a star horse would also be very cool. There is a lot of luck with getting one of those. . . no matter how "good" you are.
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| 7 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Mon, Jul 02, 21:53
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Both sound like great ideas to me too...There is no real need for us to have the password is there?..We can still see the stable if we want to, just the stats, condition of horses etc we can't see,but i would imagine they could be posted without too much trouble...
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| 8 | Fletch
ID: 3662239
Tue, Jul 03, 09:25
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Well. I was kinda hoping one personcould take on the claiming, another entering races, another bets etc. How else would this be a stable on behalf of all of us.
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| 9 | GoatLocker
ID: 44461114
Tue, Jul 03, 17:18
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Fletch,
It can still be a board Stable.
Check out the Auto Racing and Golf forums and they will give you an idea of two different board teams and how they are ran and how voting on changes are done.
Cliff
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| 10 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 19443421
Tue, Jul 03, 20:37
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Well, Sixth Deputy is sharp this week after the 98 last week. Any thoughts? I plan to enter him in some sort of Alw race this week, and hopefully we can all provide some input here before the night ends, when I will sign him up for a race.
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| 12 | Fletch
ID: 115542819
Wed, Jul 04, 00:07
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What is his id#. I would like to look at the champ.
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| 13 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Wed, Jul 04, 00:14
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the stable name is devil01 (post 3)
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| 14 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Wed, Jul 04, 00:46
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1082.1612 is a track allowance race which should reduce the competition considerably. Only 8 horses signed up so far. It's an 8f dirt $10.5K for 3yo+. Very similar to the 98SP race except for the distance. If he can repeat a 98 that race will be in the bag IMO.
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| 15 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Wed, Jul 04, 01:30
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Sorry, but I've caught a bad head cold or something. Feeling pretty miserable. So I won't be doing too much horseracing or whatever in the immediate future.
My general comment is to go for the large purses with him; I like the idea of an 8fD test.
I also don't think you really want to win this one. A 98 speed horse is in the top 10% of AlwNW1x winners, so I wouldn't worry about the competition. The odds of him finishing less than third in a race at his optimal distance is tiny.
Thus, my advice is "seek the cash!" Get his winnings up there.
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| 16 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Wed, Jul 04, 01:45
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Dang. There aren't many good options. I, of course, have a runner in that track allowance in Washington, sigh. I'd re-examine whether that's optimal placement for my horse, but I'm feeling like crap, so screw it.
A 10K purse seems pretty pathetic, but I guess that's what you have to live with. At least you get to experiment with distance.
There are a few other options.
* The NW3L in BC has a purse of 23.4. But the competition is tougher.
* You're going to need a turf try sooner rather than later. There's an 8f Turfer for 23K in BC, as well. A NW2x that looks lightly subscribed. I know that people don't advise changing two things at once, but I don't believe it. You're going to have to do all Turf/Route combos eventually, anyway.
* 2505 -- 13K purse. Although it's heavily signed up.
Sigh. The 8fD on track noticed by StL is honestly your best bet. Actually, I may pull out of that one, anyway. There are three solid 90+ speed 8fD horses in there.
So, I don't think it's going to be a cake walk. But you're going to get the BP bonus (if that matters to you), and save on travel costs. . . And get a route test in.
Win-Win-Win.
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| 17 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Wed, Jul 04, 01:50
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I just pulled my horse out of 1612. Looks like I was going to get smoked. Especially if 6th Deputy was entering. . . Although I didn't check to see if those stud horses were on their first or second entry . . .
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| 18 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Wed, Jul 04, 08:57
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If i had it my way i would go for 3110...only because there were no other suitable races(imo)(and i think you clean that race up) you gotta get out of wasington..It cost a fortune from there to ..well...almost anywhere
I wouldve suggested experimenting a bit and going longer or shorter,in distance, but the options wern't there this week(again imo)...(then again you may already know the limits of the horse,(which i don't with most of mine....LOL))
tis probly too late now anyhow....
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| 19 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Wed, Jul 04, 09:26
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Ok..FWIW..3110 is a Nw2l at Oklohoma ..6.5f on dirt..(am sure i saw this race mentioned somewhere)anyhow ,,cost 1300 bucks and 3 bp's..(purse 14k roghly )but i think it will leave you more options later..
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| 20 | GoatLocker
ID: 44461114
Wed, Jul 04, 09:49
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1603 would be a tougher race, but might give you a real true feeling of what the horse is capable of.
Just a thought, but still goes 8fd and at WA.
Cliff
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| 21 | JKaye, Guru Jr.
Sustainer
ID: 19443421
Wed, Jul 04, 10:02
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Travel Costs won't matter since the devil01 stable is effectively dead--only Sixth Deputy is alive in there. I like 1612 the best at this point. 3110 is too short IMO, because I think we want to try and increase his distance. I agree we should try turf soon, and maybe save that for next time. I will wait to sign up just in case anyone has any major reservations, but at this point 1612 is the race, for reasons illustrated by others above. I really do think the 8f is important.
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| 22 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Wed, Jul 04, 10:32
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Gee...if money and bp's wern't a problem i wouldv'e looked further and wider!!!...6.5f ain't too short, heck he ran 96sp at 6f..I do agree though that to experiment either way would be a good thing..i think..
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| 23 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Wed, Jul 04, 10:36
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oops..98...sorry...
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| 24 | JKaye, Guru Jr.
Sustainer
ID: 19443421
Wed, Jul 04, 10:44
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Fair point, he did run well at 6f. So we know he can run well there. If he is to become a real competitive horse, we will need to know how far hr can run. 6.5f only solidifies the fact that he can run well at that distance. IMO, going for wins and $$ NOW is not the main issue, because if he is good, those will come down the road. To me, now is the time to test him and see where he is best so that down the road he can do better. I'm open to everyone's thoughts though. Keep them coming, the deadline is still 6 hours away.
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| 25 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Wed, Jul 04, 11:09
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Was Sixth deputy sharp or rtg on his dedut?..
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| 26 | JKaye, Guru Jr.
Sustainer
ID: 11117817
Wed, Jul 04, 12:15
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RTG
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| 27 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Wed, Jul 04, 12:22
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Geez...based on my horses(some have gone 10-20 better when sharp) he has the potential to go 110-120sp..That is stakes class...I have been looking the past few hours but you could just about pick your race and he would be competitive...I guess if you are experimenting a sprint on turf OR route race on dirt would be the best bet...
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| 28 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Wed, Jul 04, 12:27
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I agree with a turf race in the near future as well. With the 6th Deputy racing last week I'm not sure we would want the toughest competition we could find this week. There are some good horses that will make the deputy run and it will be obvious enough if the win is a slower time whether or not it was due to an easy win. It seems apparent that 6f was a breeze for the deputy seeing as how he came back sharp this week. We just have to hope he comes back rtg this week and not groggy or lay off. I just wish I had a horse like that. wow.
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| 29 | GoatLocker
ID: 44461114
Wed, Jul 04, 12:35
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Cab,
This is funny, was just looking at Stakes races to try to find something that might work.
I agree with you on the SP.
Stock Geri ran 71 RTG the first time out, and then came back and ran 96.6 Sharp.
That is 25 plus SPs.
Nice speed increase.
Looking at the last race for Sixth Deputy, I would think that 8fd is a good distance and surface to stay with for now.
Can't find a Stakes I like for him, so maybe 1612 is the way to go.
Cliff
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| 30 | JKaye, Guru Jr.
Sustainer
ID: 11117817
Wed, Jul 04, 12:45
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1612 is a go. StL Cards--"I just wish I had a horse like that. wow." You DO have a horse like that. Like I said, Sixth Deputy was drafted by a friend of mine who really wasn't that into the game. He is now everyone's horse, and hopefully we can have an ace gurupie horse. I agree with cab that his potential is scary considering he ran a 98 RTG in his first ever race.
I may be the one who breaks ties, or settles a dispute if one should arise over what to do with him. After all, it was my idea for my friend to get a Sunday Silence horse ;)
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| 31 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Wed, Jul 04, 12:47
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My experience with keeping the distance the same and either rtg or sharp was a net increase of approximately +4 and +12 so I don't think it is by any means a given that simply being sharp will increase the time that much. It also depends on the jockey, post position, and how ever many intagibles we don't know about (i.e.- how does the horse feel that day??) It would be nice to know what the mean and sd between rtg and sharp is. I'm guessing around 15+/-10. I wonder if it is actually possible to run a race slower while sharp than rtg on a given week all other things being equal?
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| 32 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Wed, Jul 04, 12:50
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JKaye #30, woohoo! I have a fast horse! thanks for sharing :)
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| 33 | JKaye, Guru Jr.
Sustainer
ID: 11117817
Wed, Jul 04, 12:51
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Next step is what we want to do with the jockey. NO jockey was selected last race, and no instructions were given either. It seems he did well as a stalker, so shall we just leave it up to the jockey and assume he will be ridden the same way or specify when he should make his charge. Does .7 sound good to people?
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| 34 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Wed, Jul 04, 12:53
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Good luck Deputy!!!..
Am not really up with the breeding side of things(as far as Sunday silence goes)...can he, or does he have the potential to go longer?..
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| 35 | JKaye, Guru Jr.
Sustainer
ID: 11117817
Wed, Jul 04, 12:53
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It is possible. Light Award ran a 85.9 RTG in his first race, and 85.1 sharp in his 2nd. He came back Little Groggy, so that may explain it. But there are no guarantees. We can only cross our fingers that Sixth Deputy keeps improving.
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| 36 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Wed, Jul 04, 13:04
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I think i would leave it to the jock in the meantime...Houston(sp?) is the No.1 at Washington..If you decide to select a jock and get a decent one ,leave it to him...if you get a dud,select a riding option tomorrow when the fields are out...This is Madman,Fletch and Torals' domain!!
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| 37 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Wed, Jul 04, 13:05
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I'm not too up on Riding Options, but looking at 6th Deputy's last race I think .7 may be too high. With the extra distance I'm thinking a .3 or .4 might be the right setting. He simply smoked down the stretch and will need to save his energy for the stretch run. We should wait to see the jockey and if we get a good one then like 626 M Houston then I would say let the jockey decide. Who rode last week? I would try for him as well as he seemed to ride a good race. I think you can set the riding options until Thursday so we can see the running style of the other horses before deciding. I'm not too good at interpreting what that means, but I know some of you are better.
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| 38 | JKaye, Guru Jr.
Sustainer
ID: 11117817
Wed, Jul 04, 13:07
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Sixth Deputy has a TON of classic chef-de-races(Promised Land, Buckpasser, Hail to Reason, Roberto, and a little from Seattle Slew and Halo as well) in his blood line. A DP of 7-1-20-0-0 indicates that he could do well at the 9-10f level at least, maybe more.
Sunday Silence has a DI/CD of 2.43/.75 which means his optimal distance would be around 9f. All told, I would say we can keep pushing the distance as far as he can go.
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| 39 | JKaye, Guru Jr.
Sustainer
ID: 11117817
Wed, Jul 04, 13:11
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I've never set riding instructions, and until Fletch's experiment I wasn't planning to. So I am not too sure what type of an effect each of the settings will have.
Last week, he won with B Scott, a rookie jockey ranked 20th in Washington.
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| 40 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Wed, Jul 04, 13:12
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Boy..That is scary considering how well he went on debut at 6f!!!(and rtg to boot)...Am glad he is "our" horse!!..LOL..
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| 41 | GoatLocker
ID: 44461114
Wed, Jul 04, 13:23
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I'm not sure on the Jockey sitting yet.
My gut instinct would be to go .5 or .6 if we go this route.
Don't want him too far behind.
The last ride was nice, and we might try for the same jock as the number one choice and leave it up to him.
Cliff
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| 42 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Wed, Jul 04, 14:52
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First time at a distance, I don't recommend setting Riding %. Typically, horses start at a higher % as the distance goes up, and it's too early to say what his optimal is, especially since he's never been ridden by a good jock.
I agree that this horse is scary. And I hope it puts down the 110+ he'll need to. But some thoughts to keep everyone sober:
* A 98 speed dirt sprinter is in the bottom 10% of winners of Alw-NW3x. The competition is very tough there.
* I've had several horses get irreversibly slower after their maidens. Sharp or RTG hasn't seemed to matter. One, December Chop, even had an awful jock the first time out. Basically, flukes do happen, and we don't know yet if this was for real or a fluke.
* Stock Geri increased 25 points, but that was with a surface switch. You'll never see that with a dirt-dirt change, unless the horse couldn't handle the distance and is dropping down in speed.
* Sixth Deputy started off at 40% in race #1. This is a good sign that he can handle 7f, IMO, since, as I said, horses tend to go to 100% when they start stretching the distance. I bet he'll handle 8, but we should definitely test.
* I don't want to be the downer here, but the odds are still against sixth deputy ever becoming a Graded Stakes horse. He'll have to suddenly explode at 8-10f. And, given the dosage, I don't think that's likely (given the way the sim interprets dosage).
* The reason I have some hope is that he won his Maiden fairly easily. You don't know a horses max potential until he's been beaten. So, he might have had a 103-104 in him. Because the race had two speed horses beating each other up, it was set up for him, however, so I wouldn't count on a big boost from this effect.
* He's a six year old. How old do Sunday Silence horses get before they start to lose it? Horses can stay competitive in the sim up through 9 years or so. But many start to show age by year 6.
* For all the above reasons, I don't think it's trivial to make sure you get as many winnings as possible early. If you double the purse amounts every week from 10K to 20K, then you're talking an extra 6K per win. Plus, the only way you can "hit it big" with purse stuff is if you can get a Graded Winner. And, to be honest, I think the odds are still against this horse.
With that said, he's closer than anything else we've got, I think. . . And I appreciate JKaye's willingness to share his success.
I hope I look and sound like a fool.
Regardless, he should have an easy time for his first couple of allowance races, and now is the time to experiment around. I like the 8fD 1612 a lot. Nothing else is a perfect fit, and we've got to figure out if he can make a route distance.
(Note: I think the Sim trims off 1-2f from the distance that their real-life dosage can handle, JKaye, which makes me nervous here. I think he can handle 8f, but it will be tough to go much farther.)
And I should note that the "irreversibly slower" problems seem to plague primarily older horses. All of my 4 yo's or younger improved after their early races.
I apologize if I sound grouchy. My head is swimming, although I'm starting to feel a bit better.
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| 43 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Wed, Jul 04, 17:40
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Here's an example of what I'm talking about with the purse money -- horse 36900 -- Masquerade Virgin.
In 9 races, he's earned $47K. He's thrown down two 109+ races.
Interestingly, Rakida's Plug has pulled down $40.5K in just 5 races. Agriculture Bomber has done $41K in 5 races. . .
And neither of my horses has even come close to being able to run in Graded Stakes company . . .
Get earnings when you can. You never know when an opportunity will come along.
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| 44 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Thu, Jul 05, 00:36
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Ridge Rick and Cool Jug should be some good competition for us. We are picked to come in 4th adccording to the odds. The jockey is less than the optimal pick so I would say let's set the riding options. Anywhere from .3 to .6 would be my vote. Looks like the competition likes to hang back as well.
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| 45 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Thu, Jul 05, 03:02
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V Thomas is the jock. Ouch city. This makes it very hard.
And you're right -- there is no competent speed here in this race. Judge Party looks to be the hardest leader.
Honestly, I'm not sure what we should do here. I've gotten wins with lousy jocks before. The problem, however, is that there are some other close horses that have better jocks.
In terms of the field, it would be really niced to go for a 100%, and try to dust them early.
I wouldn't go for less than 40%, because that's how he started out at his last sprint. And that % should probably rise a bit going for the longer distance. This is a tough call.
I would probably stick with jockey-select. If he loses the race at this point, that's not a big deal. But you'll get more information about whether he can handle 8f this way. Even crappy jockeys ride their nags OK -- most of the time.
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| 46 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Mon, Jul 09, 14:06
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Sixth Deputy ran another 98, this time at 8f, but came in 2nd to Cool Jug. Probably the Jockeys fault for not starting the kick a bit earlier.
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| 47 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Mon, Jul 09, 14:28
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Stl -- yeah, possible. Overall, I think this is a mixed sort of result. The good news is that he can go 8f. The bad news is that he didn't improve much being sharp. I think we should be satisfied, but this wasn't the sort of result that indicates that we have a Graded Winner on our hands.
I think we should go for a turf try next and hope for a miracle. And I'd do it at 8f or less.
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