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Subject: Getting Seriously Analytical About the Sim
Posted by: Madman
- [29246911] Mon, Jul 02, 16:15
I've written and just sent off 4 articles to the Sim Guide. He said he'll post the first sometime today, and I presume the others will follow.
I've pulling in all 810,000 horses, and analyzed them in various ways. For the stuff I'm writing up, I've restricted the sample to races run after January 1.
So far, I've also limited my observations to 4 yo's. Here are the conclusions that I've come up with so far. I apologize for not explaining everything in more detail, but you can visit the Sim Guide when things get posted.
* There is a consistent and large speed discrepancy between winners, seconds, and thirds in dirt-sprints versus dirt-routes versus turf-sprints versus turf-routes. Dirt sprints are the fastest, followed in order to turf-routes, which are the slowest.
* Filly restricted races are, on average, won with speeds 1-2 points slower than their Open counterparts.
* There is NO practical difference bewteen ALW-NW1x and NW2L. Or between NW2x and NW3L. Or between NW3x and NW4L. Wow.
* Track-restricted allowance races can be extremely weak -- as weak or weaker than NW2x races.
* The median winner at the NW1x level is in the top 10% of the winners at the MSW for dirt sprints. The median winner at the NW1x level for turf-route runners is in the top 8-9% of MSW turf winners.
* The difference between Dirt/Sprints and Turf/Routes closes a bit between the MSW level and the AlwNW2x level. However, after that, the difference remains steady through NW3x, NW4x and open Allowance events.
* The biggest leaps appear to be from the MSW to NW1x and then again from the NW1x to NW2x levels. If you can make it through those conditions, your horse can probably compete at the Allowance level effectively. If not, you might as well send him back to the claim ranks.
* There are a much larger number of weak fields in route races than in sprint races. Some of these fields are won with incredibly slow times. At the very least, some are very easy to place in.
* The weakest NW2x fields are equivalent in difficulty to the weakest NW3x and NW4x and even Open Allowance fields. But the median races increase in difficulty slightly.
* The Maiden Claim rank difficulty appears to be reflected well by the claiming tag. The 5K and under tag races are indeed easier than the pricier tags.
* MSW races for purses under 20K are indeed easier than more expensive purses.
* MSW races between 20K and 30K are just as difficult as MSW races above 30K.
Plan accordingly. As I said, the complete set of statistics will be reported shortly. And more conclusions will surely be forthcoming as I explore Claim races and Stakes competition, as well as taking a look at 3 yo's. |
| 1 | Fletch
ID: 51529288
Mon, Jul 02, 16:24
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I actually read your article when matt posted the link on the ASR board, and I must say my friend. Excellent work. Now the real question. Can you take a peek at my 401K? Keep em' coming Vic.
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| 2 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Mon, Jul 02, 16:35
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hahaha. Well, the Fed's quarter-point drop indicates that . . .
I really didn't edit any of the articles, so I'm a bit nervous now about grammar things. I noticed a few grammatical snafus in the posting (yipes). Oh well. The problem is that it takes time to just type up those freaking tables, and I wanted to get to more results, not quibble about grammar. . .
But I previewed all the conclusions from all the articles I've written so far (4) in the above post.
Link to the Sim Guide where the first article has just been posted.
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| 3 | JKaye, Guru Jr.
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Mon, Jul 02, 19:07
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Madman--fantastic work, as usual. Your time and effort is greatly appreciated. Now, to see if I can put this data to work and see it improve my stables.
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Post a reply to this message: (But first, how about checking out this sponsor?)
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