| 0 |
Subject: Sim Sports Horse Racing -- Week 1082
Posted by: Madman
- [29246911] Mon, Jul 02, 20:18
I know it's too early to say for sure, but I was looking over the race cards, and I feel extremely good about things for this week. To give just a sample of why:
a) There's a dirt sprint allowance *90 race in Washington this week. Hmm. Skin Jumping has a CPU value of exactly 90. What are the odds of another horse with a 90 CPU value being able to put down a 100 sp?
b) Jinx Understand found a nice little 3500 track restricted claimer in MN that fits his profile perfectly. One of these days, some one is going to wake up and realize that I'm making a fortune in breeding points with this 70-75 speed dirt sprinter and take him away from me. . . (note: I think there are a lot of horses like him out there, however, so who knows. Although his 75 speed may start attracting attention).
c) There were two 7,500 starter allowances within $300 of South Carolina. So Light Jupiter and Babified Opossum both have venues in separate directions and in reasonably restricted races.
d) Another cheap auction pickup found a nice little dirt claim sprint immediately.
e) I've started to put my draft horses into Claim races, and they all found nice little niches.
f) Alyrun Wing is in a low-purse, but otherwise nice little allowance race where he should be able to place well. (and maybe make the Gurupie 90+ list).
g) Even December Chop is in a nice little restricted Track allowance in Washington -- same state where he was before. Plus, his backup is the same restricted CPU race as Skin Jumping. So good chance for the bonus breed points here.
I dunno. Pretty much every horse I entered, I just looked down the list, and there was something that, even if it wasn't perfect, was a place where I thought the horse might have a real chance.
This is the first time in a long time where I haven't had at least 4-5 entries where I just went (OMG. I can't believe I'm signing up for this race, but I just have no choice) . . .
Crossing fingers, and hoping that my gut means something. And that Tuesday / Wednesday entrants don't ruin everything. |
| 1 | JKaye, Guru Jr.
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Mon, Jul 02, 20:28
|
Jinx Understand you say? I could use a good claimer this week....;)
I, too, have found some solid races for my horses. I only plan to run 5 this week, as the entire jkaye1 stable is RTG!, and all get the week off.
|
| 2 | GoatLocker
ID: 44461114
Mon, Jul 02, 21:21
|
I've got a question.
I was going to give Stock Geri two weeks off after the last race, but she is Sharp.
Should I run her after just one week off?
Remember, she is a three year old.
Right now I have her set to train for next week, but am unsure if I should try to find a Stakes or Allowance for her?
Any thoughts.
Thanks,
Cliff
|
| 3 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Mon, Jul 02, 21:46
|
Cliff -- It's very hard to find good races for 3 yo fillies right now. Personally, I'd scout the races, and if you find a good match, i'd go for it. Otherwise, I'd wait.
That's the advantage of training for a week into the future like you did -- gives you two chances at a good race.
I should also note that I've had very good results when waiting a week, so all else equal I would wait. But, as I said, it's hard to find great 3 yo races at all, let alone filly ones right now.
|
| 4 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Mon, Jul 02, 22:01
|
There are a number of 3yo stakes races(open) this week which are very light on entries at this point..There are maidens entered in some of them..May be worth considering?...Looking to enter the Clam in one of them....
My experience with waiting for another week...The Clam came up sharp a week before i wanted him to..I waited a week and he went back to RTG..I raced him(rtg) and he ran a shocker...I have been thinking that rather than actually improving him in condition he went more towards "needs a race" and therefore the jock just gave him a stroll around the track(He was the top jock at Washington)...Or maybe he just didn't feel like racing that day!..lol...I don't really know..
If he had've stayed sharp it may have been a different story...
|
| 5 | GoatLocker
ID: 44461114
Wed, Jul 04, 15:08
|
Well, think I might have found a race for Stock Geri.
I've entered her in an Alw at Arkansas.
0615 - 5.5fd $30,400.
I was really looking for a 5.5 f race.
The last one at 6.5, she had a 7+ l lead and then held on to the win.
So, my thought process, and this is more from RL than the sim, is to shorten her up and have the jock take her to the lead again.
We shall see.
First off, is the need for her to drqw in.
Cliff
|
| 6 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Wed, Jul 04, 21:43
|
Races are Up!
Easy Money Pick of the Week: #2 in 1607.
Skin Jumping, 10/1, under Wolff. 7.5 is his upper range, probably. But this is the last time you'll be able to catch this horse at these odds. Put not more than 50K down, because you'll only be able to keep $500K of winnings.
OTHERS:
December Chop, 11/1, #8 in 1607. So-so. Just want a good effort from this guy.
Arctic Government, 6/1, #8 in 1109. Good terrain. hmmm. Dang. Was his first 61 the real deal? Hope not, sigh.
Sutter's Creek, 9/2, #3 in 4603. FTO for this 2yo. #4 in the race has a 68 and 72 to his resume. Only 4 in race.
Light Jupiter, 9/2, #1 in 4609. On the rail! 4 other 94+ speed horses in this dirt sprint, so this could be a wild one.
Jinx Understand, 8/5 fav, #5 in 4713. Going for breeding points. C'mon Jinxy and get win #3 for Gurupies! Wouldn't it be ironic if the first Gurupie 3-time winner was a claimer?
Babified Opposum, #5 in 2208. Ranked top 4, another wide-open mid-90 sort of race.
Rate Learn, #3 in 0715. I finally get a great gate position, and it's in a 1.5 mile run. sigh. Under Munoz, and at 3/1 odds, he's just off the favorite of 5/2.
Alot Under run, #4 in 7104. Sigh. 28/1 underdog. Second legit race. Trying him at 1 mile. He maybe should go into the claimers ASAP. Need a turf try next. Ouch. So much for all my horses having chances.
Royalty Boom, #2 in 3208 Dang it. 6 horses here, so I could be out of top 5. This horse's last chance. Stinking 2 yo that hasn't broken 35, I shouldn't have snagged him from the computer. . .
Prize Smoking, #13 in 1703. Dang it. He didn't draw into the easier claim race I wanted for him. This is a turf-route experiment. If it fails, I may just dump him into the auction. Nice breeding. Uh, and that's about it.
Manta Until Stones, #8 in 1901. 8/1 odds here in this 3 yo's first maiden claim race. Does he want to become glue? That is the question . . . If he can't place here . . . Lack of turf try may attract a bidder . . .
Wishfully Flaunt, 7/1, #11 in 7109. He's ranked #4 and has a chance to shock.
Gorilla Rusty, 48/1, #2 in 5608. Uhhh. This is the LAST time he enters a non-claiming race. . . Sigh. What happened? Another #2 choice.
Alyrun Wing, 11/1, #11 in 4112. NW2x try here. Alyrun can go 96 speed in dirt sprints. But a few other these horses can go 100+. A big-time $6200 purse drew them all down to Mexico. What's up with that?? Sigh.
Overall, not nearly as good of placement as I was hoping for. 16 races, probably only 2 wins if I'm lucky. Maybe 5 shows or better. Sigh.
|
| 7 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Wed, Jul 04, 21:50
|
Oh. Almost forgot. The 16th runner:
Straight Time, #8 in 5105, 3/1 odds The kicker here is that she's never gone anything over 12f. I think the slow turf try last week actually means she can go 10. And I'm hoping for all 12, obviously. If she can go the distance, she has a great shot at winning.
But if she bombs out . . . It will be a very interesting thing to watch. She's back on dirt where she belongs. . .
Overall, most of my top overall gurupie ranked horses are giving it a go this week. Rakida is the only exception. He's a little Groggy, so he'll be out until 1096.
|
| 8 | JKaye, Guru Jr.
Sustainer
ID: 19443421
Wed, Jul 04, 21:57
|
Dynarun Form--5505. 2/1 cofavorite. Hopefully can put up anther 80+ and bring home an ITM finish.
Prosperous Buster--6311. 5/1, 3rd choice. Two 80+ efforts in last 5. This should get him back to that. Good chance to be ITM.
Midget Talent--3110. 33/1 shot. Is he a 78 or a 90 horse? If the latter, he can compete here, if the former he will get killed. I suspect he is MUCH closer to 78 level. Oh well.
Maple Cap--3215. 2/1 favorite. A toral horse is the 9/2 2nd choice. If Maple Cap does what he's down 3 of the last 5--run 80+, he should win.
Senior One--4006. Not posted yet for some reason.
And finally, Sixth Deputy--1612. 4th choice at 9/2. Top 3 have all run low 90 speeds, but if he runs 95+ he should win #2.
Overall, 6 horses--a legit chance to be ITM or win with 5 of them.
|
| 9 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Wed, Jul 04, 22:43
|
7 going round this week for me...
Clam carnival..3106..No.2..6/1
Suitably in a stakes race named the Carnivalay handicap!..Is the 5th fav in this 6 horse field...Having a go at 8.5f ..Shooting for win number 3 as well(for the Cab stable)...
Sloppy station..4801..No.5..9/1...Another shot at an allowance race(nwx1)..ranked last by the cpu,he will probably have to step up and hit the 90's to have any sort of a chance...Only a six horse field though..I am hopeful that he can step up..I kinda like this guy..
Prince beau...3108..No.5...9/1.. This a track restricted claim race..Was hoping the opposition wouldn't be too strong but not to be...He has put in some good ones in the past so here's hoping...First start for the Cab stable..
Fourth Bingo..6111..No.2..12/1..Continues his travels around Scandinavia..In Finland this week for his first try on dirt at 8.5f..
Mechanical smell..2114..No.9..5/2..Hooray!!.A favourite at last!!...Has a genuine chance in this race too i think..A NW4L claiming race,The most restricted race i could find for him..Hopefully he will break the drought for Pepe31..
Northern cap..1712..No.6..9/5..Another favourite which surprises me...This is a turf try,which he hasn't had in the last 21 starts(he did have one as a 2yo but i haven't got that far back in the sss yet)...More of a test than anything...
I claimed this guy off you Fletch!!..one of your pimp stables..
Amy donkey is just going for a jog..Needed one more race to get my unblocked horse going...
All in all, hoping for a good weeks racing(cannot be any worse than last week!!)..we shall see..All have good jocks so am not sure if i will play with the riding instructions...
|
| 10 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Thu, Jul 05, 02:55
|
Northern cap -- 432.0912 -- 47 speed in a turf sprint. It was just one race, so you never know. But this horse was running 60 at the same distance (6.5f) the race before it, and 66 after (5.5f).
JKaye-- all races are always posted. Have to refresh your browser. Senior One looks like he can place there, as well.
|
| 11 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Thu, Jul 05, 04:19
|
Thanks Madman...As soon as the fields came out,i regretted placing him here...Oh well..
|
| 12 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Thu, Jul 05, 04:24
|
well, we all live and learn, cab. I've made my share of mistakes. Plus, as I said, it was only one race. You never know. He might have disliked the jockey. He might have been running groggy. He might have improved a lot. I'm not trying to say the odds are in your favor. But it's also not like he had 5 races like that in a row or something.
Actually, that race might be worth looking at for betting purposes, since Northern cap is probably a weak favorite . . .
|
| 13 | GoatLocker
ID: 44461114
Thu, Jul 05, 07:49
|
One horse from each Stable.
GoatLocker
Stock Geri, 9/1, #7, 0615 Race has an even money favorite, but think she has a big chance of being competitive and think she could be up over 100 with the shorter distance. Has the jockey with the top winning percentage.
GoatLockr2
Icy Kingdom, 9/1, #6, 0808 Hopefully the first race was not indicative of what he is really capable. Has the jockey with the top winning percentage.
Cliff
|
| 14 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Thu, Jul 05, 09:59
|
Good point about the betting Madman..After glancing through the field(quickly ) the No. 9 horse looks good at 4/1...
|
| 15 | JKaye, Guru Jr.
Sustainer
ID: 19443421
Thu, Jul 05, 10:24
|
I swear races from NC(track 40) were not up. Oh, well, maybe they were and I am a dumbass ;)
Senior One is a 8/1 shot in a WIDE open field. Lik Madman said, he has a chnace to finish ITM.
|
| 16 | Fletch
ID: 3662239
Thu, Jul 05, 11:30
|
I wont bother with every race I am running. Instead, I will give a breakdown through all my stables. I am running 32 horses this week, and here is the breakdown:
ALW's - 9%
CLM's - 41%
MC's - 28%
MSW's - 22%
|
| 17 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Thu, Jul 05, 15:38
|
Louis' Gals running, fletch?
|
| 18 | Fletch
ID: 41648515
Thu, Jul 05, 15:53
|
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Louis Gals experienced an unfortunate accident while training, and I had to put the piece of **** down. There was no stable hands around, so I waxed the $^&@% %^*%@% myself. :) Have you spent the 20k yet Vic, cause I sure would like my money back.
|
| 19 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Thu, Jul 05, 21:06
|
Hahaha. I think you could have gotten a MC win out of him. He wasn't that bad.
I replaced him with Casino Cart (18270) for about $1000, IIRC. Casino is one of those 6 yo's that's been abused a bit. Run 6 weeks in a row, max speed of 75. I figure on trying to get a win out of him in a MC race after he recovers from his abusive past.
But, all sales are final. That 20K probably means a lot more to me than it does to you. My stable cash amount is still less than $300K. And I'm putting all that 20K on Skin Jumping this weekend.
|
| 20 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Jul 07, 11:42
|
Skin Jumping, Light Jupiter and Jinx Understand all with wins as expected. Manta Until Stones with a surprise MC win.
But the rest of my nags fell totally apart. Straight Time couldn't handle 12f. And Alyrun Wing just didn't fire. Aargh.
Raceout.zip hasn't come out yet, so I don't know SP. I've got to go here fairly soon, so I hope he gets stuff posted.
|
| 21 | JKaye
ID: 141192417
Sat, Jul 07, 11:49
|
-Prosperous Buster won his race.
-Dynarun Form, Maple Cap and Sixth Deputy all came home 2nd.
-Senior One bombed(no clue what happened) and finished 12th.
-Midget Talent was overmatched. Its off to the claimers.
Hopefully I get the claimers I wanted this week, as well as my new foals.
|
| 22 | GoatLocker
ID: 44461114
Sat, Jul 07, 11:54
|
Stock Geri finished well back.
Need to be able to check out the race and see what happened.
Icy Kingdom finished a nice Third and paid $6.60 to show.
Cliff
|
| 23 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Jul 07, 12:06
|
Jinx Understand is no longer a Gurupie. He snagged his 3rd win and departed.
In 14 races prior to being a Gurupie, he was 0-1-2.
In 6 races as a Gurupie, he achieved glory, going 3-1-0-0-1. He earned Rotciv stables roughly 60 breed points, so I will thank him, and wish him well. Not bad for a $1006 auction horse.
I also lost Wishfully Flaunt, a $1K auction pickup. I sold him for $13.5, and seeing him run today, good riddance.
I'm very excited about two new nags. Paul's Beats and Zarb's Pass. Both cost me 5 points each, but they both should live at the claim level for a little while, I think. We shall see. Paul's Beats especially has some things I want to try. No Skin Jumping here, however.
I'll update with speed numbers in just a sec.
|
| 24 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Jul 07, 12:16
|
Speed highlights, week 1082:
Jinx Understand, PR, 75.9
Light Jupiter, PR, 99.5!! He really had a dominating race.
Skin Jumping, 91.9. Clearly just going for easy win. Plus, 7.5f is top of range.
Prosperous Buster, 81.5, just off the MAD rating minimum of 90.
Dynarum Form, 78.1
Fourth Bingo, 82.4
Sloppy Station, 82.2
Clam Carnival, 93.6
Project Scatting, 79.7 in turf route race
Pepi Dan, 99.9
Adam from Car, 86.4 in dirt route
Stock Geri, 77.5,
Maple Cap, 86.4
Midget Talent, 81.3
Chief Northern, 90.8 (9th in A3x)
Counting for Way, 90.1 (win in C2L)
Colonel Knob, 88.2 (win in Clm)
All in all, a pretty sad day for Gurupie stables, and a day that will shake up the horse rankings, no doubt.
Pepi Dan, Light Jupiter, Skin Jumping, Chief Northern, and Clam all retained their power ratings. But Babified Opossum, Straight Time, Stock Geri, and some others really faltered. Wow.
I guess that's why they run the races!
I'm going to be off for most of the rest of today, but I'll update the speed stats later. If there is any other horse with a 90+MAD from this week, please post here. This is the list I'll use to update the official MAD rankings.
|
| 25 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Jul 07, 12:18
|
BTW, Colonel Knob and Maple Cap have also left Gurupie land, among others. A lot of turnover this week!
|
| 26 | Fletch
ID: 4467614
Sat, Jul 07, 12:28
|
Fairly average week for Fletchfarms INC. 32 races with a 5-6-5 record. And it looks like alot of my claims we snagged, with not alot picked up, so I am thinking the stalls are gonna be bare come stable update. Oh well.
|
| 27 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 53638712
Sat, Jul 07, 12:52
|
4 wins is usually a pretty good day for me. And Colonel Knob just got his 4th today, so I don't mind letting him go -- Toral2 still has 5 races left before hitting 20, so I can refill that slot.
But my big gamble failed. Ministry of Chaos won his very cheap maiden claimer for 2-year olds, but someone picked him up. I figured folks might not want to spend 20 BP on a horse that cost me 27 to breed (now up to 35). Mistake, I guess. I'll just have to follow that horse and get him back. I like him! I don't expect him to do much until he's 3, so I'll track him down and claim him back, and it won't cost me 20 BP to claim him.
I could always breed a clone, but it wouldn't be the same. Or would it...hmm, it's a French-bred, I wonder what the name translated is?
Toral
BTW, my computer has failed completely, and I'll be finding a consultant this week to attempt to save what's hard on my hard disk, get the computer to recognize my CD-ROM drive again, and reinstall Windows 95. Alas.
|
| 28 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Jul 07, 13:31
|
Sorry to hear about your computer, Toral.
Regarding Ministry of Chaos, it sounds like you got an OK deal. He didn't break 50 speed, and you gained a few BP from the deal. Probably not worth your time and effort, but at least you improved your stable.
I got my first successful 20+ races claim today. Zarb's Pass. Never been tried on turf. Plus, I figured he had all his conditions left, so at least I could get him a MC win. I hope.
|
| 29 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Sat, Jul 07, 14:21
|
This week was not too good for me once again, but I didn't expect much. Country Water came in 9th and will now go to claimers. Retired Dan, a 2yo claimer came in 4th in 3d in 4 horse race. Managed to snag 3 claimers 2 of which won their races unfortunately for me. My new betting strategy is going to be to find the claimers I want and then bet on them. Claimers were #32128 Unkown Camcorder, # 14986 Brass Ones, and #23294 Frugal Buddy. Now that I have plenty of horses I will start hitting the claimer races to build up some bp's. I know one I got is by Dixieland Band and should be good at short sprints. The real question is will my horses be Sharp this week.
|
| 30 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Sat, Jul 07, 14:51
|
A pretty mixed bag of results for me...
Fourth bingo won his race grabbing Pepe31 it's first win..Mechanical smell ran 3rd in his race..
The Clam only managed fourth...I don't know that he can run past 8f,although hitting the mid 90's again or maybe not enough rest..He only had 2 weeks off this time..A spell for him maybe due..
Sloppy station...sigh..I don't think he is going to make the grade in allowance races...
Northern cap definately doesn't like the turf!...but i don't have to worry about that anymore...What a mistake that was...and he got claimed before i could get anything out of him...Mechanical smell also left the ranks along with Amy donkey, which really surprised me...Out of 4 claim races i entered 3 have flown the coup!
Oh well, will have to find some more next week...Should have a bit of cash lying around the stables after Skin jumpings win(Thanks Madman!) and i scored a bit off Bingo as well...
Overall...1 win ,1 third,1 fourth,3 also rans(Am not counting Amy cause it was just a jog for her,38 sp says it all!!)
|
| 31 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Jul 07, 14:59
|
As I said, cab, Skin Jumping was Easy Money :) Hope you bet less than $50K, because anything more than that just feeds the taxman. Hehehehe.
And, as you know, I don't proclaim a pick "easy Money" very often. So far, I'm perfect with my high-stakes instinct win-bets like this (4/4).
Even though my percentages sucked this week, I'm very happy about the betting situation. It feels so nice to have 3 stables over $650K and my newest one over $130. The corner (cash-wise) appears to have been turned. Next, I've got to figure out what to do with it.
Skin Jumpings SP of 91.9 was rather slow. But it also looks like he was just timing his kick. Both Skin Jumping and Light Jupiter had amazing kicks. I can hardly wait to put Skin Jumping in his first 6.5f race. I'm projecting that to be his optimal distance. Who knows? Maybe he can crank a 105, which would mean he can stay in my stables for awhile.
|
| 33 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 11117817
Sat, Jul 07, 20:25
|
Dynarun Form and Maple Cap were both snagged from me. Both were high 70s-mid80s type horses, and went for 15K and 10K. I guess I can't be too upset, since both did well while I had them, and I can get horses just as good for less.
|
| 34 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 11117817
Sat, Jul 07, 20:33
|
Dynarun Form--
Claimed for 2K. Ran 4 times. 1 win, 2 place. Taken for 15K--profit of 13K.
Maple Cap--
Claimed for 5K. Ran 2 times. 2 places.
Taken for 10K--profit of 5K.
|
| 35 | StLCards
ID: 42623722
Sat, Jul 07, 22:28
|
Looking over my 3 stables I have 14 sharp horses to place this week. Finally!
|
|
|
Post a reply to this message: (But first, how about checking out this sponsor?)
|
|