0 |
Subject: DNA Paternity Tests
Posted by: Myboyjack
- Leader [14826271] Tue, Jun 03, 2003, 22:12
biliruben Or anyone else so inclined: Know anything about the science behind DNA paternity testing and its reliabilty?
I just got conflicting results for the same people from two different labs. I thought I had enough of a working knowledge regarding the science behind these tests to know that this was (or at least statistically) impossible.
I deal with paternity and other DNA tests on such a regular basis that I (and most of the US court system) take it as a given that they are infallable. In fact, in a paternity case, DNA test reults are automatically admissable without any expert testimony and create a presumption of paternity that I've never (until now) seen overcome. Very troubling. |
1 | Seattle Zen Donor
ID: 55343019 Wed, Jun 04, 2003, 01:46
|
Funny, I remember being in a statistics class about 14 years ago and my professor regaled us with stories of his expert witness consulting gigs. He had lots of experience discrediting paternity tests.
I'd suggest looking up some expert witnesses to see if that line of business is still profitable. Maybe Sludge knows a thing or two?
|
2 | Sludge Sustainer
ID: 24914721 Wed, Jun 04, 2003, 09:44
|
Sorry, can't really help you out other than a couple of impressions.
They aren't infallible. Even if, done correctly, they are infallible, the people conducting the tests certainly aren't. The very fact that you send the tests to two different labs is a testament to that.
In the way of a quick example, suppose a test will be correct 99.99% of the time. Assuming that you send samples to two labs for each case, and you have 100 such cases, there's a 2% chance that at least one test (of the 200 total) will come back incorrect. That's pretty small still, but it's a whole lot larger than the 0.01% for an individual test.
Send samples to two (or more) different (new) labs and look for a consensus.
|
3 | biliruben Sustainer
ID: 49132614 Wed, Jun 04, 2003, 14:46
|
Sorry - all I know is what I haven't forgotten from Intro to Genetics.
I do have a friend who wrote a book (which is pretty good and talks a bit about DNA testing at the end) and has been an expert witness debunking the infallibility of fingerprinting. He had started moving into DNA, but I wouldn't call him an expert in it.
The deal is that even if the test is highly reliable, the lab tech isn't. The samples could be mislabled, mixed up, degraded, the test run incorrectly etc... A study needs to be done in real-world circumstances where you large number of samples to a random sample of crime labs and compare their results against a gold-standard. They did this with fingerprinting and showed remarkably low reproducibility. I don't know if a similar study has been done with DNA yet.
|
4 | biliruben Sustainer
ID: 49132614 Wed, Jun 04, 2003, 14:51
|
I emailed him to see if he knew of such a study. I'll let you know.
|
5 | biliruben Sustainer
ID: 49132614 Wed, Jun 04, 2003, 15:12
|
A quick glance at the literature shows some attempts to ascertain reliability in the '80s but nothing recent. I assume different tests are used these days.
|
6 | biliruben Sustainer
ID: 49132614 Wed, Jun 04, 2003, 16:03
|
I sent you an email with his response, MBJ.
|
7 | Sludge Sustainer
ID: 24914721 Wed, Jun 04, 2003, 16:52
|
Please share, bili. I'm curious now.
|
8 | Perm Dude Leader
ID: 2345588 Wed, Jun 04, 2003, 16:58
|
Yeah, don't be an information hog!
|
9 | Perm Dude Leader
ID: 2345588 Wed, Jun 04, 2003, 17:07
|
I sense a blog, bili!
|
10 | biliruben Sustainer
ID: 589301110 Wed, Jun 04, 2003, 17:53
|
I let MBJ write the blog, since I don't plan on reading the chapter any time soon ;), but here is the gist, as summarized by my friend the criminalogy prof:
Well, I just happen to have a book on the shelf with a chapter on that, so:
basically, the chapter (which I can send to you, if you send me a snail mail address) cites no studies of reliability. It simply mentions several times that there is a possibility of laboratory error. It also argues -- reasonably, I would think -- that there are technical reasons why lab error is of less concern for paternity testing than forensic DNA, principally that the stains are plentiful and can be retaken if there is any dispute, neither of which is typically the case for an unknown forensic DNA sample. Also, if a stain were accidentally run twice, this matching itself, lab techs would be alerted since a positive paternity match should not be a complete match, but only a "half" match (since the father supplies 1/2 the genes).
There is a lot of literature, debate over your area, biostatistical issues, in terms of what probability to attach to a match.
Let me know if you want me to send the chapter.
So basically how the science is done is readily available but the stuff I would be able to help out on - reproducibility, both in the efficacy (how reliable the test is in the lab) as well as the effectiveness (how reliable the test is in a real-world setting) sense hasn't been done. Maybe after my wedding, honeymoon, dissertation, defense, graduation, successful puppy house training and three back-logged analyses are complete, I'll write a grant. ;)
|
11 | Sludge Sustainer
ID: 26073119 Thu, Jun 05, 2003, 08:28
|
Not to rain on your future grant proposal (which I expect to be written in as co-PI), but any study into the reliability of DNA matching won't be of much use, would it? If the main cause of errors is humans screwing up, then the reliability would depend more on the training and dilligence of the particular lab and not on the method's reliability itself. Of course, you could probably make a living verifying that labs meet a certain standard by randomly and blindly testing them. Count me in on that too. :)
|
12 | Myboyjack Leader
ID: 14826271 Thu, Jun 05, 2003, 20:03
|
This is beginning to look very much like a human error/screwed up sample problem, which makes me feel a little better.
Here's the facts, if anyone cares: (Names changed, of course):
Charlie is accussed of being the father of a child born out of wedlock with Cameron, the mom, in a complaint I file on behalf of the State. Charlie Answers, stating that he might be the Dad, but he wants DNA tests. We do the tests and sure enough, Charlie is the proud poppa. We set child support and everyone goes their own way. Charlie get put in jail a couple of times for not paying his child support over the next few years.
After some time has passed, Charlie comes back into Court with some new information. He has found out that while he was carrying on with Cameron, his Dad was catching some of Cameron's lovin' on the side. He wants new DNA tests and the Judge agrees that he can arrange for them. He does and the second DNA tests are performed on Charlie, Cameron and the baby. (Who is either Charlie's son or brother). Only thing is Charlie never notifies his lab of the possibilty that Charlie's Dad might be his "grandson's" father - so the Lab doesn't do the more extensive tests needed to make this genetic/statistical distinction.
Based on those F'd up facts - the second test should have also shown Charlie to be the Dad. They didn't. But my money is on Charlie's cheapo Lab having mixed up swab samples.
BTW, blog nothing - when it's over I'm taking this case to Springer.
|
13 | j o s h
ID: 29536411 Thu, Jun 05, 2003, 20:54
|
Oh now wait, your making this up! I've seen that episode;-)
|
14 | Myboyjack Leader
ID: 108231015 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 13:23
|
Three men freed based on DNA eveidence. Just keeping track.
Kogut confessed to the crime after a lengthy interrogation and implicated Restivo and Halstead, but he later recanted.
Why is it that I'm not sure that three brutal rapists are walking around free.
|
15 | Mattinglyinthehall Sustainer
ID: 1629107 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 13:45
|
At this stage, we can't be, and that one of them confessed and implicated the other two is very disturbing, but if the evidence that was used to convict them turned out to be faulty, you still have to consider this a triumph of justice. I believe I read in a report the day after the story broke that they have not been exonerated and that one or all of them may be tried again. Hopefully, even if they are guilty, justice will be served on accurate grounds.
|
16 | Seattle Zen Donor
ID: 55343019 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 13:56
|
Why is it that I'm not sure that three brutal rapists are walking around free
So, seventeen years isn't enough? And you wonder why our jails are overcrowded.
|
17 | Some boring lurker
ID: 55343019 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 13:59
|
blah, blah, blah, I bet her family would like her back for just one day, blah, blah, blah.
Just thought I would preemptively strike that cliched argument.
|
18 | Myboyjack Leader
ID: 108231015 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 14:07
|
Zen - surely you're not implying that 17 years is a fitting sentance for rape and murder? Since I'm sure that not what you're saying, what are you saying?
Were the victim my sister, I would, in a heartbeat, trade 17 years of my life for 15 minutes alone with her attackers. Maybe that's just me and my foolish pride though, blowing rape and murder way out of proportion to the important things in life.
|
19 | Mattinglyinthehall Sustainer
ID: 1629107 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 14:10
|
So, seventeen years isn't enough?
For second degree murder and rape?
|
20 | Micheal
ID: 412281014 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 14:29
|
If the victim were my sister or daughter, those 3 wouldn't be safe anywhere other than prison.
|
21 | Mattinglyinthehall Sustainer
ID: 1629107 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 14:31
|
Michael at this point I don't think it's exactly still fair to assume that they were responsible. Biological evidence found on the victim belonged to someone besides those three men.
|
22 | Micheal
ID: 412281014 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 14:42
|
Granted I don't know what the evidence at the trial was, but semen that doesn't match any of the 3 doesn't mean they weren't there. Why Kogut would rat out 2 and not the 3rd (semen man), I don't know. Why he would confess to something that he didn't do and bring down 2 others for something they didn't do, I don't know. I'm sure there was more evidence than "I did it and they did it with me".
|
23 | Mattinglyinthehall Sustainer
ID: 1629107 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 14:48
|
If there was adequate evidence aside from what was found on the victim to convict them then hopefully they will not be free for long. If not, then the energy of any of the victim's brothers (or anyone else who cared about her) would be far better spent on finding out what happened to her than on bringing pain to these three who may well more be victims of this crime, rather than perpatrators. This certainlyt would not be the first time that police were able to elicit a confession from an innocent. They can be very persuasive.
|
24 | sarge33rd
ID: 324532412 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 14:52
|
Granted I don't know what the evidence at the trial was, but semen that doesn't match any of the 3 doesn't mean they weren't there.
This statement TRULY bothers the hell out of me. If we are going to (rightly so I believe) convict upon the presence of physical evidence, then we absolutely MUST acquit in its absence. That semen doesnt prove you werent there Michael. Should we consider you now as a suspect as well?
I have no knowledge as to what evidence was/wasnt there and presented. I have no knowledge of what the judge in pretrial motions, allowed or disallowed. However, when it comes to 'confessions', the very environment of an interrogation, the training of the interrogators, can indeed persuade an innocent person to confess, just to get the ordeal over. Believe me, an interrogation when being conducted with the INTENT of obtaining a confession, CAN do so, with all but the most hardened of criminals.
|
25 | Mattinglyinthehall Sustainer
ID: 1629107 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 14:59
|
The history DNA exonerations (this isn't one - at least not yet) shows us that confessions and eyewitness testimony are not the slam dunk they were thought for many years to be.
|
26 | Myboyjack Leader
ID: 108231015 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 15:03
|
true MITH. This thread was started because, I am finding the more I read, that DNA exonerations ain't all they're cracked up to be either.
|
27 | Toral Sustainer
ID: 2111201313 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 15:03
|
eyewitness testimony are not the slam dunk they were thought for many years to be
Perry Mason was saying that back in the 1930s.
|
28 | sarge33rd
ID: 324532412 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 15:08
|
correct me if I'm wrong here MBJ, but my experience has been; give me a single event, give me 10 'eyewitnesses' and I'll return to you 5 different descriptions of what transpired. (assuming the event is a somewhat traumatic one such as witnessing a felony vs watching the superbowl.)
|
29 | Mattinglyinthehall Sustainer
ID: 1629107 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 15:12
|
I'm not sure if I know of any questionable DNA exonerations. At least, any that are any more questionable than the convictions were to begin with. If anyone does please enlighten me.
|
30 | Some boring lurker
ID: 55343019 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 15:14
|
EXCELLENT post, there Sarge #24. Very well argued.
I am absolutely saying that 17 years is a long enough sentance for that crime, for ANY crime. I believe that absent serious mental illness, everyone is adequately punished and has plently of time to be rehabilitated in 15 years or less.
Here is a story about Husky linebacker who murdered a young kid (if I had a quarter for every time ...), served his time, and has become a valued member of society. Y'all sound like you still want to continue to pay $45,000/yr. to house him in a prison.
After a highly publicized trial, Jugum was convicted of second-degree murder, handed a 30-year sentence and banished to Monroe Correctional Complex, effectively disappearing.
Today, Jugum, 56, lives quietly in Bothell, down the street from Pop Keeney Field, in an off-white house with two American flags and at least 50 birdhouses hanging out front.
He's worked at Woodinville Lumber for 25 years, starting out on a prison work-release program and quickly becoming a union shop steward.
He's been married for 24 years to the sister of a fellow Monroe inmate, and he's raised a daughter and son, now 22 and 21. Makes Neuhiesel's infractions look petty, I know.
|
31 | Seattle Zen Donor
ID: 55343019 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 15:16
|
That Boring Lurker should not get credit for such a wonderful post.
|
32 | Myboyjack Leader
ID: 108231015 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 15:17
|
I think that's overblown. Yes people focus on different things. Yes people bring their own bias and baggage with them and that can shade their perception of events. But effective cross-examination usually gets around that. It's not hard, with experience BS antenae in place to determine what took place, even when 10 different people tell 10 different stories.
One of my favorite movies, Rashomon is often misinterpreted to mean that we can never know what happedned because people make such untreliable witnesses. That's not true. We do know what happened in that movie and it's not hard to interpret eye witness testimony, so long as you know some of the frailites of it.
|
33 | Myboyjack Leader
ID: 108231015 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 15:22
|
I'm just going to refrain from making my "public defender are detached from reality, thanks for making my job easy, boys" post, Zen. Keep up the good work.
|
34 | biliruben Sustainer
ID: 49132614 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 15:27
|
So the dead man speaking from the grave is not a credible witness? ;)
|
35 | sarge33rd
ID: 324532412 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 15:28
|
I'm reminded MBJ, of an excercise our instructors undertook during MPI training. About 30 or so in the class, in runs this figure, M-16 blaring away. Of course, we all hit the ground. Figure was running at and firing towards the instructor. Figure leaves, instructor picks himself up off the floor, and asks for written reports on what we just saw.
HT estimates ranged from 5'4" or thereabouts to well over 6'. WT ranges covered the gamut from 145 or so to over 200 lbs. Some said brown hair, some said blonde, some had the figure wearing a cap so they couldnt say what hair color. His clothing was described as blue jeans and a denim jacket by some, black slacks and a leather coat by others. The ONLY thing that was universally agreed upon, was that the weapon was an M-16. Since we were all Army, we all knew that sound intimately.
Now mind you, this was a classroom of military personnel. Not some individual walking down the street when he/she suddenly hears gunfire. I have n the past, and will in the future maintain, that under such circumstances, eyewitness testimony is virtually w/o merit or value. The 'witness' is too busy trying to save themselves, to objectively evaluate whats going on around them.
Having said that, I will concede that a truly talented individual, can given time, fairly well ascertain what happened. Problem is, you as a DA are looking for a different result than is the defense attorney. Supposedly, each of you is well equipped for your task. Each of you goes at it, with diametrically opposed goals. The jury? They are lost. They are not gifted in this realm. They largely have no experience to tie this kind of event to so as to put it into perspective. In short, they dont know what to believe.
|
36 | Seattle Zen Donor
ID: 55343019 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 15:30
|
reality
Huh? I typed this "word" into Dictionary.com and it didn't even have any suggestions. I don't know what you are talking about.
I didn't realize that defendants were allowed counsel in KY. Learn something new every day :)
|
37 | Myboyjack Leader
ID: 108231015 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 15:34
|
Counsel for defendants? Of course they are. i always give them lots of good advice. What else do they need and who better to get it from?
sarge - if juries don't know whom to believe they should just vote to acquit.
bili - the dead are the least reliable of all. Especially when they are dead, jealous husbands.
|
38 | Mattinglyinthehall Sustainer
ID: 1629107 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 15:36
|
Sarge and MBJ, my point in 25 refers even to the testiomony of victims themselves. I know that multiple DNA exonerations have come for people who were convicted of rape charges based entirely on the witness testimony of the victims themselves. How many rape cases are there where the victim implicated someone who through DNA testing turned out not to be the assailant? How much stronger can winess testimony be than from a rape victim?
|
39 | Seattle Zen Donor
ID: 55343019 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 15:36
|
LMAO!
|
40 | Myboyjack Leader
ID: 108231015 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 15:37
|
That's enough for a Friday afternoon. I'm going to the Gym where some witnesses will describe me as a 5'9" man benching 185 and other will describe me as 6'5" woman benching 415.
|
41 | sarge33rd
ID: 324532412 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 16:09
|
I prefer to think you're the 5'9" guy in that descrip MBJ. I'd hate to get my arse kicked by a woman, but one benching 415 and standing 1/2 ft taller than I, could more than likely get the job done.
|
42 | biliruben Sustainer
ID: 49132614 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 16:15
|
He's the later - with a sex change (I think).
|
43 | Micheal
ID: 412281014 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 16:31
|
Here's what I know from reading several articles:
1 - He confessed, though he was questioned for 18 hours and deprived of sleep. He recanted his confession later.
2 - Kogut said the three were riding along in Halstead's van, spotted Fusco walking on Merrick Road in Lynbrook, offered her a ride, then raped and murdered her.
3 - Her hair was found in that van.
4 - She may have met Kogut through a friend, Kelley Morrissey, who disappeared on 12 June '84. Morrissey was last seen on the same road that Fusco was last seen on a year later.
5 - In 1995, initial DNA tests first indicated that none of the three could be linked to the rape?
6 - The media can't even get the year right that she died. I've read it happened in '84, '85, '86. You would think that all newspapers could get a verifiable fact, like the date and year a person was raped and murdered, right.
What if capital punishment had been the law in 1985? What if they had been found guilty of capital murder?
Obviously, none of this is evidence to take a persons freedom away for the rest of their life. Confessions can be obtained in illegal ways and the victims hair can be planted in the suspects vehicle. I don't know if they did it or not. Writers who covered the story seem to think that they are innocent after initially thinking they were guilty. I'll amend my comment: If the victim were my sister or daughter, and I thought they did it, those 3 wouldn't be safe anywhere other than prison.
Sarge, you can cross me off as a suspect. Other than the absence of my semen, I was 14 years old and living in Europe at the time. Where were you?
|
44 | sarge33rd
ID: 324532412 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 16:34
|
If it was 1984, I'd have to kill you after telling you where I was. If it was 1985 or 1986, I was in Des Moines, IA, running an insurance agency.
|
45 | Mattinglyinthehall Sustainer
ID: 1629107 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 16:41
|
Michael, Hair wouldn't have to be planted. Based on your post she apparently knew at least one the assailants. Trace evidence like hair is easily transfered from one place to another. My friend's dog has never been in my apartment, but you might find small amounts of that dog's hair there. Further, she may have just taken a ride in the van at some point. Incidentially, I grew up on long Island. I know Merrick Road through Lynbrook (and through all of southern Nassau County) very well. A close friend lives pretty close to there.
|
46 | Micheal
ID: 412281014 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 16:52
|
Sarge - Good one. I'll take your word for it and cross you off the list.
MITH - That is true. The defense claimed it was planted, that's why I brought it up.
|
47 | Baldwin
ID: 4261155 Fri, Jun 13, 2003, 18:05
|
My understanding is that hair matching is considerably less certain that DNA matching. They can only give you a probability I thot.
|
48 | Sludge Sustainer
ID: 26073119 Wed, Jun 18, 2003, 09:37
|
SZ #30 -
I'm actually surprised to hear that you support (support may be too strong a word here) prison sentences of any length.
|
49 | biliruben Sustainer
ID: 49132614 Wed, Jun 18, 2003, 12:32
|
We should be moving back towards the model of rehabilitation given up in the 70s because of some flawed studies.
|
50 | Seattle Zen Donor
ID: 55343019 Wed, Jun 18, 2003, 20:23
|
Sludge
Yes, I agree with prison sentances for only the most dasterdly, unrepentant a$$holes, particularly John Ashcroft and Donald Rumsfeld, hell, the entire administration, really.
|
51 | Sludge Sustainer
ID: 26073119 Wed, Jun 18, 2003, 21:37
|
And for the rest? A spanking? "Phew, that sure scared the daylights outta me, I'll never do that again!" Gym coach judicial system: 20 squat thrusts or 5 swats with woody here, take yer pick.
Therapy? Now there's an industry just waiting to explode. Hell, you can even do your therapy online from the comfort of your own home. Don't own a computer? Well, come on down to us. We have a comic that conducts the therapy, and we'll even feed you a steak dinner with all the trimmins.
Seriously, though, how else would you propose punishing those convicted of a crime?
|
52 | Tree
ID: 3533298 Fri, Jul 13, 2007, 14:09
|
a very interesting case involving paternity...
Florida man owes $10,000 for child who's not his
He now has DNA results that show the 15-year-old girl wasn't fathered by him. He even has an affidavit from the girl's mother -- a former girlfriend from 1990 -- saying he's "not the father" and asking that Rodriguez no longer be required to pay child support.
Yet the state of Florida is continuing to push him to pay $305 a month to support the girl, as well as the more than $10,000 already owed. He spent a night in jail because of his delinquent payments.
Why is he in such a bind?
He missed the deadline to legally contest paternity. That's because, he says, the paperwork didn't reach him until after the deadline had passed
|
53 | sarge33rd
ID: 99331714 Fri, Jul 13, 2007, 14:26
|
Some states have detailed laws to challenge paternity within deadlines, while others offer little guidance. In most cases, men have 60 days to challenge paternity, according to CLASP.
After that, it can be "challenged only on the basis of fraud, duress or material mistake of fact," CLASP said last year in an update to a report on paternity law.
One would certainly be inclined to believe that the DNA results, demonstrate a "material mistake of fact".
Yet another example of why our Judges need some "wiggle room" to make allowances for what is "just" vs what the letter of the law dictates.
|
|
|
Post a reply to this message: (But first, how about checking out this sponsor?)
|
|