Forum: base
Page 10402
Subject: Thoughts on Strategy

  Posted by: bookie - [104112113] Wed, Jul 04, 10:31
I'm going to do one of two things, wondering if anyone would like to give their .02 on which option is better long term.

I have almost 85 mil. Currently sitting on Both RJ and Schilling and 7 PTs

Option 1) Hold Schilling and have 10 PT's after the Break.
Option 2) Schilling -> Maddux -> KB -> Schilling and have 7 PTs after the break.

Thoughts?
 
1biliruben
      Sustainer
      ID: 231045110
      Wed, Jul 04, 10:42 		Hold Schilling. KB against Seattle is not a strong matchup, and he may have a low pitch-count again. You may want to find a way to hold maddux, however, given that the opponents after the break (Bal, TB) are pretty tasty.

You might want to consider money losses and gains through the break - if schilling really does pitch Sunday, it could be a steep decline in his price for a few days. The money side will take some serious speculation, knowledge of who is pitching in the ASG, and strong understanding of lemming psychology to get a better handle on it. My initial decision is to not use a trade unless I am fairly confident it will end up getting me money and points at this point.

Uncertainty should breed inertia among good players, imho.
 
2bookie
      ID: 104112113
      Wed, Jul 04, 10:47 		You have a good point there. Maybe I'll go Schilling -> Maddux and skip Schilling next start and then after the break, rotate with my RJ slot.
 
3biliruben
      Sustainer
      ID: 231045110
      Wed, Jul 04, 10:54 		Sounds reasonable. Disclaimer: I am holding RJ, maddux and KB, and plan to continue to do so through the break, unless some new info changes my mind.
 
4VIDevilRays
      Leader
      ID: 29439176
      Wed, Jul 04, 10:56 		Sorry to chime in late bookie but i would go Schilling-Maddux-KB-and hold KB through the break.
 
5KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 482491817
      Wed, Jul 04, 10:58 		Schilling > Clemens for me for the start of a GuruRotation.
 
6Richard
      Leader
      ID: 57823721
      Wed, Jul 04, 11:11 		I'm going Estes->Clement->Maddux->Brown and will plan on holding Brown for a while. I'm holding Schilling, Johnson, Rivera and Burkett.

I'm going to a big stud lineup for after the Allstar break. Planning on holding studs (that's why I built my roster value up) and using one spot for a Guru-rotation. Every two weeks, I'll rotate one spot try to string four good starters in between the starts of one of my studs (stud->extra start->extra start->extra start->extra start->back to stud). I'll be trying to maximize extra starts out of my pitcher trades between now and the end of the year.

Richard
 
7bookie
      ID: 104112113
      Wed, Jul 04, 11:13 		VI, That's still an option, I have a few days to think about it.

KKB, I already have Clemens too. I suppose I should have told my entire pitching situation.

It was: Shilling, RJ, Clemens, Wood and Lieber

Thanks for the input guys.
 
8KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 482491817
      Wed, Jul 04, 11:17 		bookie, you may want to maximize your PTs, considering you have Wood and Lieber on your team. After the ASB, CHC go to PIT and HOU for a 6 game stretch (4 @HOU), so you may want to consider other options for that little stretch. If you can manage to rotate Wood and Lieber after their post-ASB starts and avoid those 6 games, it will probably be of great benefit to you.

Just a little FYI.

 
9BillB
      Sustainer
      ID: 493403019
      Wed, Jul 04, 11:39 		I moved Schilling>RJ this morning and holding; will upgrade Burnett (yes, that's A.J. Burnett) to Wood after Friday's freeze and then go KB>Schilling after Brown's start Saturday. That will give me Schilling, RJ, Wood, Mussina and Jason Johnson (who I think would have @FLA and home vs. ANA as the next 2 starts).
 
10bookie
      ID: 104112113
      Wed, Jul 04, 12:03 		KKB, I'm not really afraid of the Pittsburgh game, I know they are hot now, but the cubbie pitchers should be good enough to shut them down. Now going to Houston, you are right and I will likely find a way out of both of them after their Pittsburgh starts. Like Richard, my plan is to maximize starts after the break by rotating a week and holding a week.
 
11KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 482491817
      Wed, Jul 04, 18:31 		bookie, it's not PIT, the team, that I would be concerned about, but PIT the stadium. It's ranked 7th in MLB in runs/gm, just behind the recently-turned-launchpad Jacobs Field (CLE) and just in front of (surprise!!!) Comerica Park (DET). PNC is giving up just over 5 runs/gm/team amd 10.4 runs/gm total.

I'm not saying that the Cubbie pitchers can't shut down the Bucs, but if you see a better matchup around that time (granted, it's only 2 games so you may get by w/o a Wood or Lieber start) you might want to strongly consider it.

 
12Tavito
      ID: 275111415
      Wed, Jul 04, 18:48 		Hey guys what about Park (SF) tomorrow and Petitte(NYM) Friday. How do you see their matchups?
 
13F Gump
      ID: 25213
      Wed, Jul 04, 18:52 		KKB, the stadium in PIT may not be the problem; it looks more like the lousy Buc pitching that inflates the stats, on a closer glance.

The Pirate team averages 4.7 runs/game at home, which is right in the middle of MLB. So the combo of park/hitters is not anything other than average for opposing pitchers who have a start in Pittsburgh.

What you might look at, rather than dumping Cubs pitchers, is to GRAB Cubs hitters for that series. And if you follow that with a trip to Enron, "into Sammy" rather than "out of Cubs pitchers" may be the trade to make.
 
14KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 482491817
      Wed, Jul 04, 22:12 		Tavito, Park at home is like money in the bank; a high intrest bank! He's 6-1 with a 2.02 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 9 starts at home this season. Over the previous 3 years, he was 22-14 with a 3.32 ERA at home. I'm picking him up from Clemens as part of my GuruRotation.

Gump, while I agree about picking up Cubbie hitters, I still disagree about it not being a good thing for their pitchers. 4.7 runs/gm is not good for opposing pitchers. As far as stadiums go, that's tied for 15th for home team production and is more than the Cubs pull in at home (4.5). The other part that would scare me is their recent production. Even though it was against CIN, you have to worry about a team putting up 27 runs in a 3 game series on the road in a park other than Coors or Enron. Like I said, it may be a moot point if they miss those 2 gmes, but I would certainly keep my eye on it and scout better alternatives just in case.

 
15F Gump
      ID: 25213
      Wed, Jul 04, 22:59 		KKB, you can't take the productive pitchers on your fantasy roster and try to avoid every "average" place to pitch on the road - and, like it or not, Pittsburgh is average for runs scored (15th-16th is smack dab in the middle of 30). Certainly they are better at home, but Wrigley has become a pitcher's park so you can't expect to have that that every time you hit the road. An "average" stadium should be enough to hope for. This is certainly no reason (based merely on stadium) to dump them.

As to whether or not to avoid the Pitt hitters, your original point was that it was the stadium not the hitters that you felt needed avoiding, so that was what I was addressing.

I agree that the Pitt hitters have been hot. Obviously. But you discount too lightly the kindness with which the Reds treat visiting hitters! ;-)

(The combo of a crappy pitching staff and a decent place to hit - in no particular order - make it the 9th best place in baseball for a visiting team to hit. Out of 30. Certainly very friendly to visitors.)

I certainly agree with you that it is still not a Coors or an Enron, so the Bucs have obviously been hot; but certainly there is some discount needed for environment. And it is still over a week before the Cubs go there, so they may not still be hot by that time.