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Subject: future HOF's

Posted by: rockafellerskank - Donor [4911539] Mon, Aug 13, 22:33

I was talking to a friend about this topic a few days ago: Who would make the HOF if they quit at the end of this season. For example... Big MAC may just retire if there ia lockout next year.

Te only criteria is ACTIVE players.

(NOT by injury or tragedy -- IE Kirby Pucket), but rather just decided to stop playing and retire.

Here is my lisy of Sure-fire HOF'ers..

Gwynn
Cal
Big Mac
Bonds
R. Henderson
Frank Thomas - expect debate here!
RJ
Maddux
Clemens

remember on the 'maybes' that it is NOT based on what they MIGHT do, but what they have done already!

MAYBE...... Pedro?, Griffy JR?, Canseco?, Pedro?, McGriff?, Sosa?, Piazza?, (best hitting C of all time??), Baines?, Palmeiro?, EDgar Martinez?, Glavine? Smoltz? Wells?, Larkin?, Grace?

rfs

I'm sire MITH will have $0.02 to put in....

Unknown Sox Fan
ID: 23452419
Mon, Aug 13, 22:41

There should be no debate over Frank Thomas, he was the league MVP and was the batting champion 2 times, also has made the all-star team plenty of times. Cranks out 30 Hrs a year when healthy, has won the Division 2 twice or (has been to the play-offs) He almost won the triple Crown in 92 until the strike.....anyway their should be no question's their.

Dylan
ID: 193542220
Mon, Aug 13, 22:50

Griffey Jr. is in, at least in my opinion.

blue hen, almighty
Leader
ID: 27048221
Mon, Aug 13, 22:50

Right, but you're a Sox fan. If Thomas retires now, he'll barely have the 10 year minimum.

Canseco might be if he does nothing more.

IRod would be close if he retired. But how does he retire without tragedy or such?

Gwynn, Cal, Mac, Bonds, Henderson, Maddux, and Clemens will all be first ballot HOFers, and Randy probably will be too.

rockafellerskank
Donor
ID: 4911539
Mon, Aug 13, 22:58

Canseco has 457 +/- HR's --- If he is not admitted, I belive he would be the most prolific HR hitter NOT in the HOF (Kingman?) He also has some media issues and some PR problems.

As far as I-Rod is concerned, maybe yes, maybe no. ....Didn't go look up his stats. BH, my theory is that a player just "quits".. that is how he retires w/o injury or tradegy. I DO beleive we will see a few STARS retire just because they are tired of playing in this decade. JR has already threatened to do so.. as about a DOZEN others.

Griffey, JR has only 450 HR's and not anywhere near 3,000 hits. Will he really get in?

BTW, I don't belive Kirby would hav ebeen in HOF w/o the sympathy vote.

rfs

rockafellerskank
Donor
ID: 4911539
Mon, Aug 13, 23:06

Kingman finished w/ 442. Canseco has passed him. Assuming Bonds, Griffey JR and Big Bac will be in, Canseco is the most prolific that not 100% a shoe in. Although Sosa will eventually pass Canseco too.

rfs

JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Mon, Aug 13, 23:10

Thomas is one of the best hitters of all time. He was the best player of the 1990s. He has done enough to get in. One player who won't get in--but deserves to, is Edgar Martinez. He too, is one of the games all time great hitters.

Not one mention of Jeff Bagwell? He deserves to get in as well.

Most of the others mentioned in the thread are deserving, except Canseco who simply does not have HOF numbers. As for I-Rod, the man is still quite young.

rockafellerskank
Donor
ID: 4911539
Mon, Aug 13, 23:12

Frank Thomas is far from a lock:

11 years. 2 MVP's (there are others w/ more not in HOF), 344 HR, 1183 RBI's and only 1755 hits. He does have a .321 career BA, but it only ranks 59th best of all-time

rfs

JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Mon, Aug 13, 23:15

He isn't a lock by those standards. Total hits, HR and RBI are bad stats to look at. HOF should be measured by dominance in his era. Thomas was the premier 1B(if not overall player) in the AL throughout the 90s. The .579 SLG and .442 OBP put him in elite company.

rockafellerskank
Donor
ID: 4911539
Mon, Aug 13, 23:22

I happen to LOVE Big Hurt. Best player of the 90's?

Bonds?
Henderson?
Grace

Really, the purpose of this thread is to discuss.... argue.... etc..

Bagwell need 5 more good years IMHO... only 1610 hits and 310 HR and .305 carer BA to begin the season.

rfs

JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Mon, Aug 13, 23:24

Bonds was the best player in the NL. Thomas the AL. Henderson's best years were in the 80s. Grace? Umm...no. What case does he have vs Thomas? (Besides being in the NL)

The only AL player you can name is Griffey. And I give the nod to Thomas.

WiddleAvi
ID: 51751137
Mon, Aug 13, 23:24

What about Curt Schilling

JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Mon, Aug 13, 23:25

As for Bags--I mentioned him under the assumption that he was not done and would continue his high level of play for several years.

azdbacker, Guru Jr.
Donor
ID: 51392423
Mon, Aug 13, 23:25

Don't disagree with much. Piazza is already in, as is Griffey.

azdbacker, Guru Jr.
Donor
ID: 51392423
Mon, Aug 13, 23:26

Schilling needs about 4 more good years to get in.

blue hen, almighty
Leader
ID: 27048221
Mon, Aug 13, 23:28

I agree, somewhat. Thomas, at times, has been the best hitter in all of baseball. I think it's a pretty universally accepted opinion that, even in the last 12 years (their whole careers), Bagwell has exceeded Thomas. In an age of ARod, and Piazza, and Kent, and Chipper, first basemen really have to be outstanding to "stand out."

You give me HOF ballot, I won't vote for Frank.

If Bagwell retired right now, he'd be close. He's similar to Thomas and, in my opinion, slightly better. But compare him to Edgar, who's got about 2 years of career on him, and Bagwell's not that far ahead of Edgar (who we don't think will make it).

I think Canseco will make it because he added some personality to the game. We forget about him because McGwire has passed him, but he was considered MUCH better and a a MUCH better bet for 715 homers as recently as 1991.

As you can see, Canseco gets my vote before Thomas.

There are also "older pitchers" to think about. Guys who got better and better and became unstoppable in their late 30's. Of these, I think Randy will make it. Barring one more big (20 wins?) season, Brown will not.

If Piazza plays 2002 and retires, he has my vote.

rockafellerskank
Donor
ID: 4911539
Mon, Aug 13, 23:31

Grace has about 500 more hits for his career, the most hits (and most 2B's) in the 90's FOR ANY MAJOR LEAGUER. he falls short VS. Frank in HR's, and about 15 points lower in average. They are close in RBI's

Grace played in post-season 2x and only 1x for Frank- FWIW.

Grace was a MUCH better 1B dfensively.

I'm NOT trying to make a case for Grace, but IMO FRank is perceived to better than he is and Grace is perceived to be more average than he is.

Pistol Pete
ID: 43638267
Mon, Aug 13, 23:47

Haven't seen much mention of (C)losers. Possibly Trevor Hoffman or Rivera, although I'm sure Gary might disagree. : )

BZ
ID: 5511153119
Mon, Aug 13, 23:50

The only AL people who compare to Thomas in the 90's are Griffey, Alomar and Belle (I might say the first 2 are better than Thomas, but I would have to look more carefully before doing so).

The only player in the AL that I would definitely take over Thomas is Clemens.

Grace doesn't even come close (though Edgar and RJ do).

JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Tue, Aug 14, 00:03

I am sorry, but this Grace vs Thomas thing is just silly. Thomas' OBP(.442) is almost as good as Grace's SLG(.448).

"Grace has about 500 more hits for his career"...Grace has more hits because he has more AB's. We don't want to sort hitters based on total hits do we? We all know that Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx and Joe D all have less than 3000 right?

Stretch Nuts
ID: 232553021
Tue, Aug 14, 00:13

My personal opinion is that Thomas would not and does not deserve to get in yet. While he may be rank statistically right at the top of hitters in the 90's, nobody can doubt that he dropped off badly in the past few seasons due to injury, slump, etc. etc. etc. He was just coming out of that mess with a solid performance in 2000 when he lost the 2001 season to injury. The recent mediocrity and frailty is what will stick out in people's minds.

Now, if Thomas returns next season and puts up quality numbers again for 2-3 more years (averaging say .300, 35HR, 120 RBI), he will merit very serious consideration. I think he needs to prove he can bounce back from a few down years and reassert himself as a dominant AL first baseman.

JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Tue, Aug 14, 00:15

"past few seasons" How many qualifies as few? 98 and 99 were not Thomas-like, but as the two worst seasons of a player's career, they sit pretty well along with the 8 or 9 good ones that surround them

YourMomma
ID: 5972480
Tue, Aug 14, 00:17

The world is MINE!

Stretch Nuts
ID: 232553021
Tue, Aug 14, 00:24

A player who hasn't been mentioned but is probably more of a lock than most is Roberto Alomar.

He's one of the slickest-fielding 2B ever, can hit for average with decent power, is an excellent base-stealer, and has been pretty durable over his career. Never an MVP, but a perennial All-Star and Gold-Glover for over a decade. Most importantly, the teams he's been with have always won while he was there (Toronto, Baltimore, Cleveland).

The only strike against him is that spitting incident, but I think the memory of that is fading.

rockafellerskank
Donor
ID: 4911539
Tue, Aug 14, 00:35

JKaye-

I don't think Grace should get in nor do i think he was better than or equal to Frank.

We do sort hitters by total hits or HR's.... 3000 hits or 500 HR's is a magic number. There is NO ONE playing today that won't get in w/ those stats.

Sure, there are others (that you named) that got in or will get in w/ less than 3,000 (Kirby for example) but those players did something else special.

IF Frank never comes back and Grace plays 5 more years and gets to 3,000, he will be IN. Period. End of conversation. It's a magic number.

So, we DO sort hitters by # of hits and yes, longevity and # of AB's play a part.. just ask Rickey Henderson...Dave Winfield.... Pete Rose....

BTW, Pete Rose's carreer SLG% was only .409, BA .303 and OBP .375.. BUT HE PLAYED 24 DAMN TEARS!!! YES-- I knwo he is not in, but statistically speaking he is the perfect eaxmple of getting in based on longevity.

Grace played 13 season before 2000. Pete Rose's forst 13 season compare close to Grace:

Pete 2439 hits, Grace 2201
pete 140 HR's Grace 148
Pete 741 RBI's Grace 1004.

I didn't bother to figure OBP, BA or SLG%, but they are close. Based on Pete's first 13 years he WASN'T better than Frank!

Here is MY POINT. Baseball does reward logevity and Grace could conceivable churn out Rose like #'s. Of course no on ethinks he will, but he is CERTAINLY NOT an also ran compare to Frank.

rfs

F Gump
ID: 67151221
Tue, Aug 14, 03:18

My opinion and analysis - with the facts and numbers I base them on - with the criteria that all stats end at end of this season (and figuring this season continues as it has)........
------------------------------
On the original list above, all these will make it with ease: Gwynn, Ripken, McGwire, Bonds, Henderson, Maddux, Clemens

Borderline, but I think he would make it eventually: Randy Johnson - he will only have about 200 wins at year's end, but would get pluses for the Ks and the last few years of dominance

Borderline, think he would fall short: Thomas. The 2 MVPs and the top tier performanceare there, but it has been too brief. Only 350 HRs and 1183 RBI for a power player are not that great. The BA helps, but not enough (since total hits are only in the 1700s) for the Hall-of-Fame, which looks closely at numbers in comparing players. Speed (none) and defense (mediocre) do not help. Based on the premise that he retires and adds no more numbers, my guess is that he would get votes but not make it. "All-star for several years" is NOT enough to get in the HOF - it takes a long long run of SUSTAINED excellence, and Thomas has not done it enough (yet). "Best player in the AL in the 90s" (if true of Thomas, which is certainly debatable anyhow) is NOT enough to make the HOF.
---------------------------
Additional players that should be locks:

R Alomar - top 2B for years, leader on a series of winning teams, .307 lifetime average with almost 450SB and almost 200HRs, superb defense all add up to a Hall-of-Famer. Without the spitting incident, likely a 1st ballot inductee.

B Larkin - similar to Alomar. Not as much team success, but no spitting incident to overcome either. Top defense, @.300 avg, 180HRs, 360SBs for a top-tier middle infielder.

Griffey - will have 460HRs with @.300 avg by season's end. Superior defender at a premium position defensively. 1st ballot lock.
--------------------------
Borderline "maybe's" other than Johnson and Thomas:

Glavine - will have about 225 wins at year's end, elite pitcher for yrs, team success

Baines - current combo numbers are close: 2866H, 384HR, .289BA ...being a DH for so many years will hurt, though. 1628RBI is a big plus.

Raines -807S is huge. "Only" 2570H, "only" .294BA will be frowned on for one without major power numbers, though.

Piazza and Pudge The only thing that would keep either of them out is number of games played to date, and both are 1st ballot locks when they play another year or 2. (Piazza will be at only about 1250 Gs, Pudge at 1400 at season's end.) Piazza already has 300HRs and .325BA, Hall-of-Fame numbers for a catcher. Pudge may be the best defensive catcher of all-time, with a ton of consecutive Gold Gloves and All-Star starts, and he should pass 200HRs by years end, with a .303BA. They are borderline only for the moment.

McGriff, Palmeiro, Sosa, Canseco - good power hitters that may be just shy of big enough career numbers. Current numbers, HR-BA-RBI, and notes:
McGriff - 438 -.287 -1371 ...team success
Palmeiro - 428 -.294 -1429
Sosa - 427 - .275 -1189 ...60+HR seasons help ...since his WHOLE game is power, he likely needs 460-480 HRS with his BA and RBI no help
Canseco - 456 - .267 -1383 ...average hurts, as well as some of the antics over the years. Once the BEST in the game, which helps.

JGonzalez 2 MVPs, at year's end should be at 400 HRs with close to a .300BA and almost 1300 RBI. Better credentials than Thomas.
-----------------------------
Others on the opening post list of questionables:

Pedro No way. The last few seasons of dominance, with the sweet ERA and the great win %, is not nearly enough to overcome the lack of Ws (only 132).

Edgar No way. Hurt by DHing only. Only 250HRs-1000RBIs and no more are too much for a .319BA to overcome with no defense or speed credentials.

Smoltz and Wells 159 Ws and 166 Ws. Not enough, not close.

Grace Not close. 2300H and .308BA do not overcome mediocre power numbers.
-----------------------------
Others mentioned in the thread:

Bagwell - may get there one day, but based on the opening premise (if he retired at years end), he is not there. Almost identical career numbers as Thomas to date in almost every category, 341-1189-.303, with some advantage to Thomas in BA (.319 to .303) and some advantage to Bagwell in speed (174-29 in steals). One MVP. One Gold Glove. Hitting in the 'Dome hurt power numbers in the past, no doubt, but HOF voters likely would not give credit for that factor. Like Thomas, just not enough (yet).

Schilling- not close. Only 127 Ws, surprisingly.
-----------------------------

Blizz
ID: 54721318
Tue, Aug 14, 04:29

Out of already mentioned:

HOF: TGwynn,CRipken,MMcGwire,BBonds,RHenderson,JCanseco,FThomas,RJohnson,GMaddux,RClemens,(PMartinez,KGriffey,MRivera..short careers so far but most dominant starter,batter,closer respectively for their time)

Questionable now but definite in 2-3 years: SSosa,MPiazza,JGonzalez,IRodriguez,RAlomar,TGlavine,JBagwell

NonHOF(honorable mention): FMcGriff,HBaines,RPalmeiro,EMartinez,JSmoltz,DWells,BLarkin,MGrace,CSchilling,THoffman,KBrown

Some not mentioned:
Dave Cone-almost 3000 K's, almost 200 Wins, perfect game

Ichiro Suzuki- if his japanese leagues counted he could have a chance, if not he's in a boat with Arod, Manny + co for not being experienced enough

(Very unlikely he'll make it but as a Jay fan I have to mention)...
Tony Fernandez- screams before ball hits him when he gets beaned, one of best dominicans ever, not sure if that would count for anything

F Gump
ID: 67151221
Tue, Aug 14, 06:35

BLIZZ

Some questions about your rankings, picking at 'em...

1. You say Griffey has a short career so far (so not yet qualified) - and say Thomas qualifies. Yet Griffey has far better numbers, no comparison as to speed and defense, and Griffey has played 2 years longer. The fact that Griffey has over 100 more HRs already is a huge difference.

2. You say Gonzalez needs more years, yet he has played longer than Thomas. Two MVP Awards, also. Better numbers than Thomas, especially HR-RBI, which are the measuring sticks of power hitters.

3. Bagwell has same numbers as Thomas as well, but you include Thomas and omit Bagwell. Bagwell is much better as an all-around player: way way way better defensively, and has tons more steals.

4. You say Alomar needs more years? He has played almost 2000 games already, at an All-Star level for years, so what is he lacking?

5. You think Larkin won't make it? Perennial All-Star, good power for a SS (179 HRs), 3 Gold Gloves and 1 MVP Award, 1 World Series Ring, lifetime .300 hitter, 359 steals, team leader, has already played 15 seasons as one of the top all-around SS's in the game. He is an easy selection, I bet.

6. You dismiss McGriff, Baines, and Palmeiro into the "won't make it" category, yet all 3 have real shots at 3000H or 500HR (or both, in the case of Palmeiro), which are fairly automatic "ins".

7. Cone has never been regarded as a dominant strikeout pitcher, so his Ks won't help him overcome his lack of Ws (and he only has about 2600 actually).

JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Tue, Aug 14, 10:00

I won't let the Thomas thing die. Perhaps the problem is that you aren't evaluating players correctly. The HOF does not either, so I am probably arguing who SHOULD be in the HOF, rather than who WILL make the HOF.

rfs--You outline exactly why I think Rose is not a HOFer with or without eligibility. Sure, he has the most hits. But he also has the most outs.

3000 and 500 being magic numbers quite simply is a terrible way to judge whether players should get into the HOF. If a player crawls to that level at age 41, does it somehow change what he did in his prime? Eddie Murray and Dave Winfield are not HOF caliber players. But they hit the "magic" marks and get in.

Just because Grace has played forever and has a lot of hits does not make him as worthy(or even close to as worthy) as Thomas. Perhaps to the HOF voter it does, but like I said I like to argue who should be in, rather than who will. For me, Thomas' decade of the 90's ranks up with any decade any player has ever had. The key numbers: .442 OBP, .579 SLG. I keep hearing "he only has 350 HR/1200 RBI." Well, he is only 33. He has played just 10 seasons. How many do you want him to have?

Call me crazy, but compilers are not HOFers. HOF should be measured by dominance in the player's era and position. Compilers can go down as very good players(they get the honor of things like the ASG), and very hardworking players. But that does not make them HOF players. And there is nothing wrong with that.

Perm Dude
Leader
ID: 3571123
Tue, Aug 14, 10:11

I'm not so sure that's a fair statement, JKaye. The biggest "compiler" of them all was Hank Aaron, who led the league only 4 years in home runs. Does he deserve to he in Hof? You bet! He was very good for a long period of time, but excerpt for 1957 (his MVP year) he didn't dominate at his position. He just stuck around a long time (virtually the definition of "compiler").

pd

rockafellerskank
Donor
ID: 4911539
Tue, Aug 14, 10:14

JKaye- In an ideal world, I agree with you. In the real world of selecting HOFers (under the current voting system) the numbers and longevity DO matter. I think we agree on that point, we just present the argumenet differently.

As far as Frank Thomas is concerned, I think it's debatable, but we may oe day see a Gurupie posting w/ the handle "thomasinthehall" LOL.

The longevity thing bugs me more than anyting. For example, Rickey wouldn't be hitting .220 w/ SD if he wasn't within rach of the runs scored records and 3,000 hits. Boggs finished his career under similiar circumstances too;(of course Boggs spent WAY TOO LONG i the minors and lost out on several would-have-been-productive years in the major leagues).

Babe Ruth finished 2/ something like 2875 career hits. I'd be willing to bet there asn't a single question posed to hi about the "run at 3,000" I'll bet Babe didn't even know how many career hits he had... I'll bet Rickey does!

rfs

Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 1832399
Tue, Aug 14, 10:16

WHAT!!!!
: )

Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 1832399
Tue, Aug 14, 10:21

Oh yeah, FWIW I agree with JKaye, though I'm quite certain that my endorsement will do nothing th strengthen his argument in the eyes of those who disagree with him. Sorry JKaye!
: )

rockafellerskank
Donor
ID: 4911539
Tue, Aug 14, 10:29

PD- perhaps the greatest "compiler" of all time was in another sport: Football - Franco Harris NEVER once lead the league in rushing and extended his career for a s/t in SEA in search of the record (then held by Jim Brown) I am a Steeler fan, but am glad that record didn't get tarnished by a "compiler"

"Compiling" is pretty common in all sports: Pele, Jerry Rice, Emmitt Smith, Kareem, Marino, all were great but they are most noted for their career records (chapionships aside). (I am assumming Smith will catch Payton)

No matter how dominent a player is for 5-10 year periods, he has to have some "compiler" stats in my opinion. Maris, for example, is not in the HOF and he had a nice 5+ year run (including 2 MVP's if I recall correctly) and the most hallowed record in baseball way past his 5-year eligibility period. Unfortunately, too much weight is given to the ultimate "compilers" when talking about HOF or various all-time lists.

With the power surge over the past decade, thinbk the Magic number for HR's will raise from 500 to 600 also by the way. in 10 more years, 500 HR hitter will be a dime-a-dozen if the current trend continues.

I alos think the Magic number of 300 W's by pitchers will be reduced to 250 + some stats in cmbination of ERA, K's and Cy Youngs. This will get Pedro in -- eventually.

$0.02 (well OK, a gave about $2.00 worh in this thread)

rfs

Perm Dude
Leader
ID: 3571123
Tue, Aug 14, 10:40

I think that you have to maintain some minimum level of quality in order to continue to play in the majors, that's why I don't mind compiler stats at all. Ricky's in the Hall no matter if he gets these final two personal milestones or not.

You ever check out Baseball-Reference.com? The have an interesting "Hall of Fame Monitor" that tries to put it into perspective.

pd

Bodacious Tatahs
ID: 15727915
Tue, Aug 14, 10:42

Reading all that made me dizzy. RFS and F Gump; are you guys ever busy?

Perdo, Griffey, and RJ, are locks. I would also assume pudge and piazza would be too.

rockafellerskank
Donor
ID: 4911539
Tue, Aug 14, 10:53

PD- I've checked the site out. Great site as well a handy reference to settle bar bets!

A couple of points:

#1 After I re-read the entire thread, it sounds like I am arguing AGAINST Frank Thomas. I am not. He was mentioned in my opening post as a "yes" and noted that I expected debate -- which I got.

#2 I'm not against "compilers" either. Sure Rose was a compiler and made the most outs ever, but he did have a career .303 BA, not like he hit .240 over those 24 years.

#3 I am against sitiuations like Rickey. As PD suggests, you "have to maintain some minimum level of quality in order to continue to play in the majors." Is Rickey's .220 BA acceptable for a leadoff hitter on any team? If S was in a playoff race would Rickey be getting PT? Can you name me any other team in the majors w/ a .220 BA for a regular leadoff hitter? SD has nothing going for it this year except Tony's farewell tour (which is fine & deserved) and Rickey's quest. Yes, of course Rickey was a first ballot lock before this year, but his quest for runs and walks and hits is ridiculous. Remember when Minn tried to bring back Minnie Minoso for an AB in 1990? It was publicity stunt to get him an AB in an additional decade. The commissioner said "NO" thta may hav ebeen the ultimate "compiler" act.

rfs

Unemployed
Donor
ID: 53428912
Tue, Aug 14, 11:46

rfs, I agree with your sentiments on rickey. It feels like he's been on the decline forever (except his surprising year with the Mets), but I think he is still a first ballot HOF.

Btw even though he has a .220 BA he still has a .348 OBP which is more important for a leadoff batter. When using OBP Henderson doesn't look that bad. Since I didn't find an easy way to sort OBP by leadoff hitters, I'd guess Rickey's in the bottom half but close to the middle. Here are some guys who are lower.
.348 Cedeno (tie)
.335 Knoblauch
.339 Mora
.329 Durham
.326 Damon
.321 Tyner
.314 Lockhart
.290 Glanville

natedog
ID: 53751413
Tue, Aug 14, 13:25

The one who I like that will likely never get in is Larry Walker. If he didn't get injured every season (almost) it wouldn'[t be a debate, but I doubt he'll ever make it.

Madman
ID: 29246911
Tue, Aug 14, 13:49

Interesting debate. First off, Pete Rose is getting dissed here for no good reason. Consider the time period in which he played! His 1968 season was phenomenal (2nd in MVP voting). But someone looking at it today would laugh their heads off (10 HR's, 49 RBI and few SB's). He was the MVP in 1973 with very solid stats by those standards. Plus, he finished in the top 5 in Total Bases 5 times in his career.

Yes, you can argue that he piled up tons of AB's, and therefore the Total Bases shouldn't matter a lot. But even AB's -- especially within one season -- count for something, since it means that you don't have to field a marginal bench player in those AB's (actually, I'm really talking about Plate Appearances here, so you get the drift).

Lastly, the guy just knew how to win, and that ought to count for something. . . Longevity made him a first ballot lock, but his raw ability would have gotten him in even if his career had been somewhat shorter.
_________________________________

No Votes from Me:
I wouldn't vote for Frank, he's only marginally better than Albert Belle, IMO.

Just as Alomar benefits from the lack of quality peers, Larkin is overshadowed by them. Granted, he plays in the NL, so he's been one of the best NL shortstops . . . but this is one position where the AL has dominated over the last 10 years. You start with Cal and then move to the obvious ones . . . Even though he has a World Series ring and an MVP, I don't think I'm voting for him right away. He's close, but I think he needs to play a few more years.

Others of note: Cone -- I'd vote for him if he actually gets his 200th win. Not sure I'd do it until then. Too many other top-quality pitchers in this same time period.

Damon -- arguably the second greatest leadoff hitter of all-time (according to Scott Boras and Johnny Damon on this subject in KC Star), I just don't buy it. Career way too short, anyway. As just pointed out by Unemployed, his OBP in 2001 is lower than Rickey's, who was well-past his prime.

Canseco -- Need more than a couple of great seasons and a bunch of taters in the "juiced-strike zone" era of the later 1990s.
_______________________________________
My List:

Gwynn
Cal
Big Mac
Bonds
R. Henderson
RJ
Maddux
Clemens

are obvious. My others:

Pedro -- Just too good when he was on top. Yes, he quit after 2001 because of shoulder pain. But so did Sandy.
Piazza -- Best hitting catcher. By traditional HoF standards, he's actually met minimum games requirements for catching. Best hitting catcher, despite playing in LA.
Griffey -- Fastest to 450 home runs. Yes, he had that horrible hamstring injury in 2001 that never healed and caused him to quit the game prematurely. But this is a Hall of FAME, and he was the poster kid for Baseball in the 1990's.
Roberto Alomar -- If Cleveland ends up winning the central this year, he's a big factor in that. He's been top 6 in MVP 4 times already, and probably will be again this year. It's easy to say that he WILL be a lock if he plays a few more years. It's harder to say what would happen if he just quit now. Personally, I think I'd vote for him, simply because he's been arguably the best 2nd baseman in the majors for a decade now.
________________

Unemployed Yeah, Rickey can still get on-base OK. He's doing what he loves to do, and in the bigger scheme of things, he's still quite good at it. Definitely the #1 leadoff hitter of All-Time.

JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Tue, Aug 14, 14:17

Interesting that you mention Belle. He, too deserves some consideration for the HOF. Era is a consideration but his peak years were HOF caliber.Only question is whether there were enough of them. His career averages are comparable to Hank Aaron.

He falls a good deal short of Thomas though. A lot of hitters do. I'd rank him as a top 5 or 6 1B of all time. IMO, there really is no debate. But that's just me of course.

Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 1832399
Tue, Aug 14, 14:24

Surprised nobody (that I saw) mentioned Rafael Palmeiro. This is his 11th consecutive 20+ HR season, and that includes a strike year. I wonder what the record is. Anyone? Also, this will most likely be is 6th consecutive 35+ HR and 100+RBI season. Career slugging .516, BA .294 and OBP .371 nothing to sneeze at either. Currently 428 HR and 1429 RBI and still going strong. 36 HR and 400 RBI behind Winfield in 16 seasons, compared to Winnie's 22. A lock if he retires tomorrow, I suppose not, but he must already be a reasonable candidate who has not yetr showed signs of slowing down.

ChicagoTRS
Sustainer
ID: 4324316
Tue, Aug 14, 14:28

Sosa is a lock...maybe not if he retired today but he is only 32 years old and probably has 5 more solid years left. Conservatively 40-50 more homer seasons and all of a sudden he is well past 600 homers. Plus he is not totally one dimensional...he does have one or two gold gloves, an MVP, over 200 career steals...

Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 1832399
Tue, Aug 14, 14:38

I see Blizz did mention Palmero in post 26. Sorry. One thing; you compare Ichero to Cone, AROD and Manny on your list? I know that my opinion of what it takes to be a HOF comes into question often, but Ichero? The guy doesn't even have one (1) full season in the bigs under his belt. Throw Mariano Rivera in with those "jury is still out" guys.

Unemployed
Donor
ID: 53428912
Tue, Aug 14, 15:25

ChicagoTRS, I was starting to point out some negative things about Sosa but I erased it. As much as I dislike Sosa I'm sure he will get to the HOF too. Unless his production drastically decreases starting next season, his home runs will get him in even if I wouldn't vote for him.

Madman, there are some younger people who have really only seen Rickey in the last half decade or so and have no idea how amazing this guy has been. He's a first ballot lock for sure. I'm glad no one's arguing for Damon though.

The interesting thing about that HOF Monitor that PD posted above is that it takes into acount how often players led different categories. They
consider a rating of 100-129 as good possibilities and 130+ as "virtual cinches."
According to their list Thomas, Belle, Alomar are all locks, with Bagwell, Piazza and Edgar pretty close behind.

Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 1832399
Tue, Aug 14, 15:36

I suppose this will only serve to undermine the credability of that site in most people's minds but I can't resist mentioning that Don Mattingly's rating there is 134.0.

Unemployed
Donor
ID: 53428912
Tue, Aug 14, 15:49

LMAO. I was wondering when Donnie Baseball would get a mention in this thread.

ChicagoTRS
Sustainer
ID: 4324316
Tue, Aug 14, 15:50

I don't think Edgar has a shot...DH will be held against him.

Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 1832399
Tue, Aug 14, 15:53

Haha. I resisted as long as I could, it's tough for me you know!
: )

Perm Dude
Leader
ID: 28059111
Tue, Aug 14, 15:57

Hard to tell on Edgar. By the time he comes up people may have adjusted their thinking on the DH.

pd

Bob Sacamano
ID: 21634217
Tue, Aug 14, 16:58

a couple of more seasons like the last few, and he'll make it in, DH or no DH.

rockafellerskank
Donor
ID: 4911539
Tue, Aug 14, 17:11

MITH- I believe that MCGriff holds the record for most consecutive 20+ HR season w/ 12 (he had only 19 w/ TB in 1998) then posted 3 more by the way.

I cannot find any other obvious choices than have over 12, but I didn't look that long, although I may be corrected.

Another interesting point was brought up -- The DH -- Some players may chose to go this route to extend their careers, but will it be held against them by the voters? Do they need MVP caliber years as DH or "compiler" years as a DH? A World Series as a DH would certainly help.

There will always be debate on what gets you in on the first ballot (what I consider as a lock). There has never been a unanamous HOF admission. WHAT? You mean there was actually a guy who checked "NO" when it came to Seaver and Ryan and Aaron and on and on and on....

If there wasn't agreement on those names, I doubt that we will ever agree on Frank Thomas and Mattingly; nor will they when the time comes.

BTW, not that it's fair, but tying the "baseball's most unlikeable" thread to this one. Belle will be further hurt because of the perception that was so unfriendly. Bonds,too, will lose some of his vote because of his (lack of)interaction with the media.. and Jose C and his run ins w/ speeding and domestic abuse should cost him at least a double standard of 50 extra bombs. The convese to this was media darlene and all aroung good-guy Kirby Puckett who certainly was helped along by those that liked him

rfs

rfs

JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Tue, Aug 14, 17:26

Is there any difference between a DH and a horrible defensive player with great offensive stats? The guy who actually played the field probably has lesser value than the DH did to his team. Obviously, if the DH HAD to play the field, things would be different, but its not like everyone who plays the field instantly adds value.

Blizz
ID: 54721318
Tue, Aug 14, 19:52

FGump: regarding your questions for me in post 27

Your first 3 questions are regarding Thomas being on the making the HOF list, simple explanation, I accidentally put him on my HOF list instead of my needs a couple years list.

About Alomar, the more I rethink that one the more I think he is deserving
About Larkin, I still dont think he deserves it, Madman summed it up well in post 40, about quality peers at the position

Mcgriff Baines Palmeiro should all make it when(if) they get 500HR or 3000Hits but the question was if theyd make it if this was their last year

Cone used to be considered dominant in the early 90's, I just wanted to mention him, I think hes in the same group as Mcgriff Baines Palmeiro

Someone mentioned something about it being a joke that I mentioned Ichiro, but I only think he would count if his Japanese league stats were allowed to count, other than that, I agree he is only a rookie

Sorry about taking so long to respond, I havent been home in the day lately, the weather is far too good, I havent seen a cloud in a week, thats just something that doesnt happen every year where Im from, Im taking advantage and going golfing now, so any new responses probably wont be answered right away

Madman
ID: 29246911
Tue, Aug 14, 22:11

To be clear, I'm not voting for Ichiro. However, if he has a great decade of baseball in the majors, I personally wouldn't hold him to the same standard as other American HoFers. He didn't have to face the gruff that Jackie R. did, but the logic would be similar -- a famous player who was the first player to do what he did (basically, of course).

Once again, this is the Hall of FAME not the hall of stats. And IFFF Ichiro can put up a decade of great stats, then he'd have an argument. Needs 2,000 MLB hits, however.
_________________
The main difference in my mind between Belle and Frank is patience. And yes, that counts for a lot. But Belle had a couple seasons that rank as all-time greats. IIRC, he's the only 50-50 person in history (50 doubles, 50 HR's). And Belle had more post-season success. Frank had some great seasons, but I wouldn't put his top at Belle's top. Of course, he's been more reliable, and there's a huge OBP gap. . .

This debate is probably pretty moot, since Frank will come back and put some more seasons up.

I think Edgar has a chance. But he does have to put a couple more seasons up. Palmiero is a very solid first basemen; he's going to have to qualify under the Eddie Murray rule -- longevity and piling up the stats.

Perm Dude
Leader
ID: 28059111
Tue, Aug 14, 22:36

Belle will have a push for an important reason no one has mentioned: He had his career cut short. I think there is a sentimental edge given to guys who either quit early or left the game injured when it's clear they could have piled up more numbers "if it weren't for..."

And don't tell me sentimentality doesn't play a part! It it the main way the voters discern between players who deserve and players who don't. [It's also how the Veterans Committee worked]

pd

James K Polk
ID: 4592651
Tue, Aug 14, 22:37

I agree with you PD, but it's hard to imagine many people getting sentimental over Albert Belle :)

Sarcasmo
ID: 52710519
Wed, Aug 15, 19:26

Brady Anderson - in '99, he became the first American League player hit-by-a-pitch twice in the same inning. That's gotta get him in there!

Razor
Donor
ID: 6731713
Wed, Aug 15, 21:05

MITH - that's an error. It is supposed to read 92. Check the HOF monitor page.

Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 1832399
Thu, Aug 16, 08:07

Razor, that number 92 next to DM's name represents Mickey Lolich's number. The numbers for each player appear to the left of their name, not the right.

Madman
ID: 29246911
Thu, Aug 16, 18:38

MITH and Razor -- Don Mattingly has a 134.0 HOF Monitor score. This is on a test that is used to try to predict who the newspeople will vote for. To be specific "This is another Jamesian creation. It attempts to assess how likely (not how deserving) an active player is to make the Hall of Fame" (quote from baseball-reference).

The Hall of Fame Standards test, on which Mattingly scores a 34.4, tries to measure the value of the complete career of the player. An average Hall of Famer has around 50 on this measure.

My interpretation of these stats is that they indicate that it is likely that Don Mattingly will get voted into the Hall (HoF Monitor), but that he isn't necessarily deserving (HoF Standards).

Of the 10 batters who had similar stats to DM, only Kirby Puckett was in the HoF. And clearly he was there largely because of post-season success, personality, and the fact that his career got cut short.

James K Polk
ID: 19351290
Thu, Aug 16, 19:06

Was just sorting a few all-time stats after reading the back-and-forth over Frank Thomas. His career .438 OBP ranks 4th all-time (Edgar ranks 5th, BTW, at .426). Thomas' career .577 SLG ranks 10th all-time. He joins Ruth, Williams, Gehrig, Foxx and Hornsby in being top 10 in both categories.

Bonds could join if he continues his walking frenzy. He already ranks 8th in SLG at .578. His .415 OBP is tied for 13th, only .002 out of 10th.

Madman
ID: 29246911
Fri, Aug 17, 13:20

JKP -- True. But sort by active players. Guess what? Frank Thomas is fifth in slugging, with a ton of high-quality multi-dimensional players crowding in right behind him. He is #1 in OBP by a solid .013 points (in front of Edgar).

Modern baseball. Hooray. As I said before, you have to judge players against their peers. And Frank has been among the best, but not long enough to warrant inclusion if he were to retire right now, IMO.

Madman
ID: 29246911
Fri, Aug 17, 13:34

You know, here's another way to look at this whole question.

Each Hall of Famer will probably play an average of about 17-18 seasons right now (talking batters only to keep it simple). Each year, on average, probably 1.3 or 1.4 hitters can get elected to the HoF, yes?

Therefore, during any single HoF career, around 20 hitters will be elected.

Conversely, if you look at any single year, therefore, you'd expect about 20 HoF players to be playing (hitters, once again). Yes?

So, are the 20 people in front of the Big Hurt (offensively)? Remember, for THIS question, you don't need to worry about career totals up to this point -- just whether or not it's reasonably certain they'll make the Hall (this is why I'm talking about batters only -- pitchers are very hard to predict -- batters are easier).

My 20 HoF players right now (no particular order):

Gwynn
Ripken
R. H.
A-Rod
I-Rod
Piazza
Nomar
Jeter
Bernie (can you imagine only 1 hitter from the late 90's Yanks to make the Hall??)
Griffey
Mac
Bonds
Sosa
R. Alomar
Manny
Guerrero

Hmmm. That's only 16. I'd bet the other 4 aren't really locks right now (a few of the ones I listed aren't 100% locks, either, of course). Probably will be chosen based on longevity from the following:

Big Hurt, Bagwell, Palmiero, JGiambi, CDelgado, LWalker, JuanG., Chipper, Kent, and a few who might be able to up their level of performance, or get special consideration (like Ichiro).

Just the sheer volume of hitters at 1B right now makes it hard for guys like Frank, IMO. One more thing -- it's possible that this year we have more active HoF hitters still playing, since Gwynn, RH and Ripken are all about to retire. . .

rfs @ work
ID: 567211710
Fri, Aug 17, 13:42

Madman - Nice post. However based on the offensive explosion of the 90's-00's which is showing no sign of slowing down and the incresed coverage of every aspect of the game (Internet, video, cable), I believe that your estimate of 1.3 to 1.4 hitter per year will rise to 1.5 -1.75+. This is just human nature in the age in which we live.

There will be "crusaders" for marginal HOF canidates to put pressure on thru the media. Not unlike MITH in his own small way LOL. Just kiddin' with ya MITH. I think we live in an age of excess. If 1 HOF is good, 2 is better, etc..

rfs

Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 1832399
Fri, Aug 17, 14:25

Madman
Several things to consider about your logic; "Therefore, during any single HoF career, around 20 hitters will be elected." So exactly what 20 year period are you referring to that will produce the above HoFers you predict? Alex Rodriguez is currently in his 8th season (6th full season) in the bigs. Assuming he plays another 10 to 12 years and in eligable in 15 to 17, I assume you are referring to a 17 - 18 year period starting this year? OK, but what makes you think players like Jeter and Nomar (and ARod for that matter) will be elected in that time? That would get them in in their first few years of eligability, when players like Jim Rice are still waiting today. IMO, it is somewhat bold to assert that Derek Jeter will have a more impressive career (as far as HoF standards are concerned) than Jim Rice and other "borderline" players that have been eligable for some time but haven't gotten in yet.
Besides that, you failed to include on you list players like Rice who are eligable to get in but haven't yet. You also failed to include players that are becoming eligable in the next few years; Andre Dawson, Eddie Murray, Paul Molitor, etc.
Also, in the 27 years of inductions back to and including 1975, the BBWA have inducted 27 hitters and the Veterans Committee has inducted roughly 31 (I say roughly because some of those names elected by the veterans are pretty obscure - I feel I was conservative in my estimating but some my want to check for themselves). Anyhoo, that's actually over 2 hitters per year. I know that the Veteran's Committee has been disbanded (reworked - whatever) but do we expect the decline to go from over 1 hitter per year down to .3 or .4?
Aside from that, rfs has a point that the number of players the BBWA inducts stands to increase over the years. Whether because of "the age of excess" as he suggests or the increased number of teams and thus players in the league or some combination of both and/or possibly other factors, eventually (certainly in the next 20 years if we're right) it will likely happen.

No offense taken, rfs.

Razor
Donor
ID: 6731713
Fri, Aug 17, 15:09

Bernie but no Bagwell? No way. If Bags puts in 5 more years like he's had so far (not a stretch in Enron for a 1B at age 33), he's a great bet. He'll finish this season with 350 HR's. So he should cruise to 500 in Enron. Combine that with his .300+ avg. and .410+ OBP and you've got yourself a HoFer.

And if anybody's going to mention Belle, they have to mention Gonzalez, the man who stole two MVP's in two of Belle's best years. He's all of 32 years old and will finish this season with about 400 HR's. At least two MVP's and good RBI numbers makes him a good bet as well.

Also, Barry Bonds told Gary Sheffield he should start thinking about getting to 500 and 600 HR's after Sheff hit his 300th. Whatever Bonds say is accurate so count Sheff in.

Stupid Helton and his stupid inflated numbers have a shot, too.

Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 1832399
Fri, Aug 17, 15:19

Razor I agree. If you're gooing to make a list of the most likely currently active future HoFers from actual available data, Palmeiro, Big Hurt, Bagwell, and Juan Gone (not any specific order there) all get in before Bernie, Jeter and Nomar. Also, I think Chipper makes it before Jeter and Nomar.

rockafellerskank
Donor
ID: 4911539
Fri, Aug 17, 15:22

.... umm, would this be a good time to bring up Mark Grace again?

rfs

JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Fri, Aug 17, 15:26

Chipper, Jeter and Nomar should not even be mentioned yet. Their careers have been 4-6 years and time will tell whether they truly are HOF players. Frank Thomas has passed his prime. If he isn't a HOF player now, he never will be. And I say he is. One decade of the numbers he put up are enough. Come back to me in 2005 or so, and I'll let you know how Jeter, Chipper and Nomar stand

Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 1832399
Fri, Aug 17, 15:33

Though I don't I'd put him on the list, he might deserve mention. Numbers-wise, he's pretty close to where I'd assume most people figure Jeter will be in another 5 - 7 years. Probably more RBI, fewer steals and less playoff experience (one area where Jeter has really excelled) than most would expect from a healthy Jeter by 2007 or so.

Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 1832399
Fri, Aug 17, 15:35

JKaye, I agree. Was basically just rearranging or reproiritizing the names that Madman mentioned.

Madman
ID: 29246911
Fri, Aug 17, 16:04

JKaye and MITH, you are misunderstanding the logic behind the scenario here.

During any one year, based upon the assumptions I stated, you'd expect about 20 Hall of Fame players to be active. This includes rookies who will eventually become HoFers, as well as last year guys who are locks. To most accurately identify the 20 who are active right now, you've got to spread your picks out -- you've got to choose some who'll be elected starting in 5 years, but also some that will be elected 20 years from now.

Razor If Bags puts up 5 more years, then he's a lock. I said that he would be one of the players that can make it based on continued output.

Clearly, Bernie will need to continue to produce. But there is a lot going for Bernie that Bags doesn't have -- post-season success. Incredible defense in a key position. Premier AL centerfielder (arguably in all of baseball, actually), etc.

JKaye even using your standards of having stats right now, Chipper is much closer to HoF status than you'd think. He's going to finish this year with over 4,000 ABs, and will have been the premier 3B player in the majors for the last few years. His career averages are superior to the #1 3B guy in history through these 4,000 ABs. I don't know where he ranks on the All-Time HR for 3Bers, but I bet he's in the top 10. And climbing rapidly. This is his 7th year; in his previous 6 he had already compiled an HOF Monitor score of 89. Pretty unreal.

Jeter has an HOF Monitor score of 99 already. That's pretty unreal, given that he's just had 6 years in the league. Add to that the NY factor, and he's a virtual lock unless something very strange happens.

Nomar -- Also has a HoF monitor score of 96 already, and an HoF Standards of 33. Pretty freaking incredible.

In the sub age-30 group, these guys are as close to locks as you can get.
_________________________
Regarding Thomas, I think you would project him to be in a group of 1B that has a great chance. But if the Hall elects ALL of the 1B guys that are awesome right now, then it's pretty silly. Going into this year, he had the 6th highest slugging among active players, and the 7th highest BA among active players. Will he stay ahead of the rest of his peers? I think this is critical for him. And no, I'm not willing to vote in a clean-up hitter simply because he draws lots of walks.

JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Fri, Aug 17, 16:13

I wasn't saying Chipper, Jeter and Nomar won't get in. Chipper will probably end up as the #1 3B of all time. All I am saying it that both are still in the early stages of their careers.

Razor
Donor
ID: 6731713
Fri, Aug 17, 16:23

I see everybody is using the term "third baseman" rather loosely these days.

Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 1832399
Fri, Aug 17, 16:45

I see what you mean Madman, but I still feel, based on the actual average number of hitters elected each year and by other points presented that your list should be more than 20 strong.

Also, I disagree with your argument:
"But if the Hall elects ALL of the 1B guys that are awesome right now, then it's pretty silly."
How many is silly?
Bagwell, Thomas, Palmeiro, Helton, Giambi, Mac and Giambi is seven. Delgado and Grace don't make the cut IMO, but for the sake of argument, lets put Delgado in there too. I don't think it is "pretty silly" to think that all eight of those guys eventually get in at all.
Here's my reasoning.
Jim Bottomley, Bill Terry, George Sisler, Jimmy Foxx and Lou Gehrig all played in the late 20's and early 30's and are all HoFers. They were all active together for several seasons. They are also from an era when all of MLB consisted of 16 teams and all of them were elected by the BBWA except for Bottomley. Surely today, another era rich in 1b talent, we can make room for three more this time around, considering that the number of ML clubs has now almost doubled.

ChicagoTRS
Sustainer
ID: 4324316
Fri, Aug 17, 17:11

I think Chipper has a long way to go to catch one Mike Schmidt...you have to discount some of Chippers offensive stats because of the era. + Schmidt is the better defensive player. Schmidt in his prime was probably the top player in his era period...I don't we will ever say that about Chipper.

Madman
ID: 29246911
Fri, Aug 17, 17:43

MITH --

1) I don't think Bottomley or Terry are legit HoFers. As you noted, Bottomley wasn't elected; and Terry stats were inflated in ways that we can only today really understand (with our improved understanding of statistics and of how statistics relate to the game).

2) Your argument appears to be that we elected 4 first basemen from that era, now the number of teams has doubled, therefore it's OK to elect 8. The fact of the matter is that the voters have never followed this logic, nor do I think that it is necessarily appropriate to do so.

3) Your hypothesis is that we are somehow suddenly endowed with 1B talent. I would question that hypothesis. I think the game has structurally changed, so that we will always have a large number of slugging firstbasemen. The advent of weight training, drugs, nutritional supplements, etc., all benefit 1b players as much or more than any other position. Further, to argue that we are suddenly rich in 1B talent requires that you demonstrate that we are richer in 1B talent relative to other positions. And I just don't see that. We have undoubtedly the best hitting catchers and shortstops in the game's history right now. We have arguably the best LFer, and a phenom in CF. We have a two time 60+ HR guy in RF that has become truly amazing. We have one of the greatest slugging 2B guys in history (kent) along with one of the most complete 2B guys in history (alomar). The only position where you can make an argument that we are relatively weak right now is 3B. But there, you currently have a lock HoFer (Ripken), and Chipper. Further, 3B was considered a defensive position for much of the game's early history, so you'll find that many, many generations have been weak at 3B. We're just relatively weak now compared to the days of Schmidt, Brett and Boggs.

All of this is a long-winded way of saying I don't see how you can argue that we suddenly have a surplus of 1B talent relative to other positions. Therefore, your argument appears to be that we simply have a surplus of talent OVERALL, and that we should lower HoF standards, and start allowing more hitters in in the future.

And I think that's a separate debate. I was using my interpretation of what current HoF standards are -- and that is to be a pre-eminent player at your position for an extended period of time, and also be a pre-eminent player within the historical context of the game. Each of those 1B guys can do the latter, thus each individually might get in. But the odds of all achieving that status are slim; and, indeed, if all actually do achieve that status, then I think by definition, not all are actually HoFers. That would simply be an argument that we have indeed suffered dramatic offense inflation.

To prove that roughly 30% of current players in a position deserve to be in the HoF is a pretty tough task, and I think you have to do more than to argue that they are just piling up unbelievable offensive numbers.

BTW, while we are on 1B guys, McGriff is going to have a case, too, believe it or not. He's got a great chance of hitting the 500 HR plateau in the next couple of years. AND, a few of his best years came before the offensive explosion.

Madman
ID: 29246911
Fri, Aug 17, 17:49

Chicago TRS -- I agree that Schmidt was probably the better player in reality. But I am saying that Chipper's stats are actually better than his at the moment, and may be by the time they are done. The only other positions you can say that about are SS and C. And Schmidt was truly incredible. . . Regardless, Chipper has been the premier 3B guy for several years now, and he probably will be for the foreseeable future. Nevin MIGHT do it, but I just don't see it. Maybe a rook like Burroughs or something . . .

James K Polk
ID: 37651820
Sat, Aug 18, 19:23

Madman #63 -- Post 62 wasn't meant to be an argument that Thomas should be a lock HOFer. I was just impressed that he was top 10 all-time in both SLG and OBP. I didn't expect to find that.

F Gump
ID: 67151221
Sat, Aug 18, 21:03

WHY PUDGE IS PRETTY CLOSE TO A LOCK ALREADY

Chipper has impressive numbers? Pudge and Chipper are the same age (29). Chipper is ahead in HRs by only about 25. BA almost identical (.305-.303). Pudge has 40 more RBI and 30 more Rs scored.

Pudge plays likely THE hardest defensive position and may be the best C of all time defensively. With offensive numbers that are in the same ballpark as the best 3B of his era (and 3B is an OFFENSIVE player's position), he has the potential to eventually be regarded as THE BEST all-around catcher that ever played.

And he is more than 3 years younger than Piazza, so he has time on his side to surpass anything Piazza does offensively as a Catcher. It is possible that he maybe becomes the best OFFENSIVE C of all-time, as well as the best DEFENSIVE C of all-time. As SW players know, the last few years he has certainly been Piazza's equal (and maybe even better than Piazza) as an offensive choice for C.

The Pagan Baby
ID: 26641117
Mon, Aug 20, 19:42

I'm sadden when I see some of the names being mentioned. The HOF is a joke. Yogi Berra got up at a meeting of baseball bigwigs one year and said his friend Phil Rizzuto should be in the HOF. Everyone loves Yogi so next election "The Scooter" got in. His numbers are nowhere near close. Now everyone says Phil's in and my guy's numbers are comparable to his. Now you've got execs, reporters, and broadcasters in the HOF. Most of the voters never played the game. They even have players that should have been given a chance in the HOF. Nothing against Negro League players but they should have their own HOF and be very proud of it. What about Japanese players from 1940-45? I'm sure they had some great players but they didn't play in the MAJOR LEAGUES. Should we overlook that fact or should Japan have it's own HOF? When will they start electing players from the women's league? They were never given a serious consideration regardless of their talents.
I believe there are way too many players in the HOF. I feel only players (retired or active) that have appeared in 2000 games should have a vote. They should have a two tier system. Each year three players are voted in as ALL STARS. Each year only one player can enter the HOF. He would be selected from the existing list of All Stars.

You guys are talking about 20+ active players making it into the HOF. WHEN I WAS A BOY the HOF was only 30-35 years old and pro baseball as we know it was about 90 yrs old. There were only about 60 men in the HOF. No one argued should Ty Cobb or Christie Matthewson be in the HOF. If anyone can argue against someone then they very probably don't belong. This culture wants to give things to people they haven't earned. I'm not saying that Kenny Boyer, Rickey Henderson, or Cal Ripken Jr weren't very good players but they don't compare to Willie Mays, Bob Gibson, and Nolan Ryan. I hear "informed" people say Don Sutton or Frank Thomas should be in the HOF. They never saw a stadium get quiet when Hank Aaron batted or Gibby and Warren Spahn squared off in a pitcher's duel. The world stopped. Kenny, Rickey, and Cal can be recognized as All Stars of the game. Let's reserve the HOF for the very best 100 players of each century. Let's no cheapen the honor. I'll get off my soap box now.

Mark L
Leader
ID: 4444938
Mon, Aug 20, 20:24

Anyone who thinks that Rickey Henderson's credentials as a Hall of Famer are in any way dubious has cast grave doubt on each and every other opinion that he or she cares to express.

Madman
ID: 29246911
Mon, Aug 20, 20:51

Mark L -- yeah. I would totally agree with that assessment. I do feel the urge to pile on. Hopefully it won't lessen the impact of your most cogent and concise argument. . .

Rickey has a great argument to be the #1 lead-off hitter of All-Time. Have you seen the SB All-Time leaderboard? Remember how he could just disrupt a game back in the 1980's? You talk about fans getting silent -- what about when ptichers go beserk because you're dancing around and stealing second and then third and then scoring on a popup to short right field?

If you argue that Rickey is NOT one of the top 100 players of last century, then who would YOU choose as the best lead-off hitter of All-Time? Brock? Wills? I think Rickey is right in that group and better than, actually.

Cal Ripken is an even bigger lock that Rickey, IMO, if that is possible. He is arguably the greatest SS of All-Time. Personally, I would rank him #2, but I can see how some would put him at the top. In his prime -- which lasted a very long time -- he totally revolutionized the game. Cal paved the way for A-Rod and the current wave of larger short-stops who could hit. It's hard to understand how great he was in, say, 1983 or 1991. No, he's no Babe Ruth or Hank Aaron. But Babe Ruth or Hank Aaron didn't play shortstop in the 1980's either. You can't argue that Hank Aaron was a better hitter than Ripken and consider the case closed. You have to judge Ripken considering the TOTAL contribution he made to the team. And a hitter and fielder like Ripken from the SS position is every bit as valuable as some of the greatest players of all-time at other positions.

And I should point out that you criticize the idea that there are 20 active HoF players. This is the historical number of elected HoF players that are active in any given year.

I won't argue for Ken Boyer to be in the Hall -- he's not even close to the same calibre player that Ripken or Rickey were. Both Ripken and Rickey would even make your 100 player cutoff, IMO, so I'm not really sure what you're arguing here.

Stretch Nuts
ID: 232553021
Mon, Aug 20, 20:55

To my pagan friend,

I generally agree with the spirit of your argument. The HOF voting system as it stands now certainly encourages alot of media-types to cast their ballots based on a "get my guy in" mentality. Voters skew notoriously towards their hometown heroes. And if the media are going to get a vote, why only sportswriters? Broadcasters, who obviously watch far more many games with a greater attention to detail, are probably more legitimate judges, really. I think the system could use some changes to eliminate bias. Also, with the relative ease of reaching previously cherished statistical plateaus these days, it would behoove the HOF to take a more discriminating approach.

But as for your examples of undeserving players, let me say that I don't think Cal and Rickey were good examples for you to use in your argument. I think you would find alot of people who would put those two guys among the top 100 ball players of the 20th century, qualifying them for the HOF even by your standards.

As for providing electrifying moments, I will never forget the nights Cal tied and broke the consecutive games record, hitting homeruns and taking a victory lap around the field. He has a definite flair for the dramatic - like homering at this year's all-star game. He is an obvious fan favorite and has on many occassions been the focus of every eye in the stadium over the course of his career.

As for Rickey, he's not as much of a fan favorite as Cal, but he's provided great memories too. Another image etched in my mind is when he stole that record breaking base, tugged it out of the ground, and held it up over his head in triumph. What a great moment.

Anyhow, the crux of your argument still carries alot of truth. I dread the implications of Jose Canseco's 500th homer some day in the future.

rockafellerskank
Donor
ID: 48113316
Mon, Aug 20, 20:57

Mark L- Sounds like you'd just like to lock the doors of the HOF and say that the only great players of all-time have come and gone?

Rickey and Cal are locks - 1st ballot. I resprect your OPINION, but your opinion will prove to be incorrect if you think these guys won't get in.

rfs

Madman
ID: 29246911
Mon, Aug 20, 21:08

rockafellerskank -- It was "The Pagan Baby" who was making that argument, I think, not Mark L. Sorry if I confused the situation by starting my post 83 by addressing it to Mark L.

Stretch Nuts -- yeah, bias can creep in. But you need a 75% vote total. That's not easy. The Veterans Committee was easier, but they've done some good reforms there, I think, to make it more reasonable.

rockafellerskank
Donor
ID: 48113316
Mon, Aug 20, 21:11

...oops.... sorry Mark L. I was addressing The Pagan Baby.

rfs

Madman
ID: 29246911
Thu, Aug 23, 14:54

An ode to Rickey -- ESPN Mag. Read this, and it's hard to argue he's not in the top 100 players of All-Time.

rockafellerskank
Sustainer
ID: 766215
Tue, Jul 02, 2002, 15:58

I guess Canseco is off the "maybe" list after his book and admission of steroid use, huh? Plus, of course, he fell just shy of the magic HR number (which needs to be revisited IMO)

rfs ®

ChicagoTRS
Sustainer
ID: 3948815
Tue, Jul 02, 2002, 18:08

This thread is pretty funny. I can't believe someone was argueing that Rickey Henderson and Cal Ripken do not belong in the HOF or are one of the top 100 players of all time?

Rickey...3000+ hits, the alltime leader in Runs, SBs, and Walks...the best leadoff hitter in the history of the game does not belong in the Hall? He would probably make my list of the top 25 players ever to play the game.

Cal...3000+ hits, the iron man streak, gold gloves, etc... What is he missing?

blue hen
ID: 30311814
Thu, May 22, 2008, 16:22

Guess we better bring this thread back as well.

Forum: basePage 11038Subject: future HOF's

Forum: base
Page 11038
Subject: future HOF's