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| Posted by: beastiemiked
- [17414316] Fri, Feb 22, 2002, 13:29
Haven't had time to really look at all the prices but thought I'd start a thread where we could centralize the strategy talk and discussion on players. |
| | | 1 | Jackie Robinson
Leader
ID: 231212212
Fri, Feb 22, 2002, 13:48
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There was a lot of discussion on the board regarding what to do about Randro. To me it seems that by making decent players much more expensive than at the start of last season,whether to Randro or Randy/Schilling is very much up in the air. $50MM means $3,570,000 avg for 14 players. With Randy on your roster it leaves $2,961,000 avg for the remaining 13.
I have filled out 2 teams with no player over $6.9MM. Even doing that I was hard pressed to field a team without some big risks or using some very marginal players.
That being said I don't know how I will build roster value on these teams. Randro added big money.
I am looking forward to reading the discussion.
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| | | 2 | Y2JS
ID: 48312723
Fri, Feb 22, 2002, 13:56
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I also at the present time don't have a player over $6.9M and am left waiting here with just below $7M to spend on the IPO of Burroughs and another pitcher. This is very frustrating because i'm taking risks on some mid-priced pitchers rather than go with Randy, Pedro, Schill and anyone else in that echelon. With that said, if i start the season without one of those 3 i'm really let rotating cheapies in the pitching department which is really what i don't want to do
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| | | 3 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Feb 22, 2002, 14:10
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As many of you now, I prefer to evaluate averages based upon "eligible" games, rather than games played. (An "eligible game" is one for which a player is active on a MLB roster, and therefore eligible to appear.) This allows for fair comparisons of pitcher vs. hitters, and for everyday vs. platoon players.
As far as I know, I'm the only person to track eligible games, so you'll have to use my sartible stats to do this type of analysis.
If you sort the stats based on TSNP/EG, as few things are immediately apparent:
1. Most players - particularly everyday players - are priced between 2-2.5 TSNP/EG/$million, give or take. Visually, the higher ranked players are priced a little more expensively than the mid tier players, but I haven't done any quantitive analysis to confirm that - and there is plenty of variation along the column.
2. The most potent pitchers - Randy, Pedro, Curt, and a few others - are clearly priced more expensively than the rest of the field. This makes sense, since they are more likely to "share" a rotational roster slot, and therefore, their effective cost per TSNP may be somewhat less. (This premium not been evident in prior season's draft pricing, however. Good move, TSN!)
3. Everyday players who were in the majors for less than the full season appear to be underpriced. This probably reflects a flaw in the TSN pricing model. Classic examples are Adam Dunn (3.3 TSNP/EG/$) and Roy Halladay (4.0). Of course, these players may not produce at last year's levels, but if they do, they are fundamentally cheap, and will be heavily bought.
4. Everyday players who missed significant time (but did not go on the DL) are overpriced based on eligible game analysis. Manny Ramirez and Juan Gonzalez are two examples. They may be more appropriately priced if you consider only their games played, however.
5. Catchers are expensive. I suspect TSN prices (in part, at least) based upon averages per game played, and this tends to make catchers look better than they really are - since they systematically rest once or twice per week. This is a position to find someone cheap. Piazza is probably the last stud you'd want to own. However, guys like LoDuca or Toby Hall seem reasonably priced. That's probably an accident of offsetting mispricings - they are rich because of catching issues, but cheap because they were inactive for a good chunk of the season.
I'm sure they are plenty of other interesting trends to evaluate. And the usual key is to identify players who will outproduce last year's numbers. If they do, that often overwhelms any draft pricing idiosyncrasies.
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| | | 4 | beastiemiked
ID: 14821921
Fri, Feb 22, 2002, 14:38
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The one thing about the catcher spot that I noticed was besides the upper tier of catcher the rest of the catchers had very small TSNP/EG, less than 3 for most of them. I'm not sure what this means but I'm likely to buy a catcher that can produce more than that and yet is still reasonably price(Hall is a great buy if he can continue his production from last year).
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| | | 5 | tduncan
ID: 47616279
Fri, Feb 22, 2002, 14:42
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I didn't signed up yet, but I do plan to do so sometime this week. in the meanwhile, could somebody who registered please e-mail me the draft spreadsheet? thanks.
drorsteinberg@hotmail.com
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| | | 6 | beastiemiked
ID: 14821921
Fri, Feb 22, 2002, 14:43
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Guru, would it be possible to add a column for the difference in TSNP/EG from this year to last year?
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| | | 7 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Feb 22, 2002, 14:47
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I think that should be pretty simple. Let me see what I can do.
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| | | 8 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Feb 22, 2002, 14:49
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As a general qualitative guideline, the hitters with the biggest declines will be those with lower batting averages.
And the pitchers who will benefit the most will be the wild ones. (Pitchers with exceptional control didn't walk or hit many batters to begin with).
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| | | 9 | PhillyTom
ID: 5110262012
Fri, Feb 22, 2002, 14:57
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I have a general question regarding pitching strategy. Last year I played Swirve Baseball and Basketball and finished in the top 150 in both. This past year they completely changed (and screwed up, IMHO) basketball forcing me to pay for SW which I am really enjoying. Assuming they are going to make similar changes to baseball, I am getting a head start on SW.
Last year in Swirve the pitching strategy was pick up good pitchers with great matchups for two starts then drop them for new pitchers. But that was with unlimited trades (after the contracts ran out). My observation about TSN is that you can totally rotate your pitching staff every 11.69 days or roughly every three starts. Is this the current strategy that most people will adopt?
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| | | 10 | Ender
ID: 52438315
Fri, Feb 22, 2002, 15:01
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PhillyTom, checkout this thread .
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| | | 11 | PhillyTom
ID: 5110262012
Fri, Feb 22, 2002, 15:04
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Yeah, I just saw that. Thanks for the BUTT.
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| | | 12 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Feb 22, 2002, 15:15
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I just commandeered the column formerly headed "Last Game" and inserted the difference between the TSNP/EG for last year vs. this year. It is calculated as the 2002 formula average minus the 2001 formula average.
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| | | 13 | Jackie Robinson
Leader
ID: 31832211
Sun, Feb 24, 2002, 17:37
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????
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| | | 14 | Tree
ID: 4310343
Sun, Feb 24, 2002, 19:19
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Although i'm a bit wary of my pitching staff, taking 3 guys who will be 4th or 5th starters but i think are undervalued, to join RandyJohnson and Josh Beckett, i'm pretty satisfied with the rest of my team.
i took A-Rod to anchor the offense, but i dont have a single starter above 3.6 besides him, yet i think i have a strong and productive team that will get me points and $$$...
i read some posts initially that had me concerned that picking a team would be difficult. i have my initial team, and it took me only a few hours to find my guys. it will probably change some before opening day, but the skeleton is there, and i'm pleased.
Tree
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| | | 15 | Khahan
ID: 567232217
Mon, Feb 25, 2002, 11:06
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As far as player price and strategy goes, I'm looking at players who were injured last year.
For example, at first base you have Frank Thomas (4.96) and Mo Vaughn (5.85). They both have the potential to produce just as much as any other 1st baseman, including Bagwell, Giambi etc.
For catcher, I'm seriously considering Pudge. Yes, for a catcher, he is a bit high priced, but he should be starting the season and it sounds like he'll be on fire. For his potential production, $4.59 is a steal. At the same time, I'm looking at Brad Ausmus. He is just simply better than he played last year and at $1.5 mil may be one of the best bargains out there.
Of course, I'll be watching all these players very closely through spring training. This is a risky way of looking for players. Especially this year, it could have huge payoffs.
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| | | 16 | Species
Donor
ID: 304521510
Mon, Feb 25, 2002, 12:22
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One thing that stood out for me when perusing the prices was the cost of touted rookies. Morgan Ensberg $3,500??? With Adrian Beltre at $3,400?? Fascinating! Vazquez of SD $1,810? Too high!
The moral: TSN definitely did their share of manual adjustments this year. I guess they had their columnists feed them their 'sleeper' lists and emerging rookies and notched them up quite a bit compared to their relative production in callups last year.
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| | | 17 | ChicagoTRS
Sustainer
ID: 5031911
Mon, Feb 25, 2002, 13:07
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I am not finding it impossible to put together a solid team for the early season. I even have enough money to rotate big priced pitchers in one spot. There are plenty of steals out there if you look hard enough. It is still so early but it will be interesting to see how some of these players coming off injury perform in spring training...some obvious guys to watch are Frank Thomas, Todd Hollandsworth, Rick Ankiel...
I think the challenge is going to be making money...I am not convinced these five day average price changes on the pitchers is going to stop rotation money earnings. I am going to have to sit down with a schedule and spreadsheet and see what I can come up with... I think it will make it all the more important to maximize making money at the hitting positions.
This year I will conserve some pitching trades! ;-)
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| | | 18 | Species
Donor
ID: 304521510
Mon, Feb 25, 2002, 13:26
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ChicagoTRS - I agree that moneymaking will be interesting this year. I think with any system the trends/tendancies will show themselves, and we will very likely figure it out here in a few weeks. What I wonder is whether or not baseball will have a basketball-like dampening. If so, gimme POINTS POINTS POINTS with all of my trades!
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| | | 19 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Feb 25, 2002, 14:25
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It's important to recognize that your first 3 pitcher trades must last for 9 days. The first new pitcher trades are passed out on April 9th (the seasonstarts on 3/31).
Without knowing exactly how the 5 day lookback will be phased in at the beginning of the season, it might be a good idea to avoid drafting pitchers who will be heavily drafted. They'll experience some sells before there are any compensating buys to offset them.
For example, assume that either Schilling or Johnson will start Arizona's home opener on 4/1, and the other will work on 4/2. I suspect a lot of managers will draft the opening day starter, and then immediately swap into the other guy. (Pedro may factor into this as well, of course.) So for the 4/2 price change, the opening day pitcher will probably have negligible buys and lots of sells, and the 4/2 starter will have lots of buys and negligble sells. After that day, buys and sells should start to offset. But you might get an initial price boost (and avoid a quick loss or trade) by skipping the opening day starter and drafting the second game starter.
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| | | 20 | perk9600
ID: 4542177
Mon, Feb 25, 2002, 15:00
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Guru good point.
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| | | 21 | ChicagoTRS
Sustainer
ID: 5031911
Mon, Feb 25, 2002, 15:04
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Guru...I was thinking the same thing....the initially rotated pitcher could see some heavy losses if TSN does not manipulate the first few price changes.
Personally I have always felt that there should be an opening day price change based on how widely a player is drafted/owned. This makes sense on a lot of levels. Some players will probably be drafted by 30% or more of the teams and they will not have a lot of price upside but will have heavy price downside because of the heavy ownership. Why not have an initial price change based on the draft? This would offset the first pitcher rotation and would provide some initial value to highly drafted players.
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| | | 22 | ChicagoTRS
Sustainer
ID: 5031911
Mon, Feb 25, 2002, 15:15
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With what looks like little value in rotating pitchers it looks like pitcher trade conservation and maybe only trading pitchers rarely to get on pitcher money trains could be a solid strategy. One of the problems in the past with choosing not to rotate pitchers early and saving trades was you would fall behind on earning money. Now it seems like saving pitcher trades will not hurt you monetarily and may make a whole lot more sense to use the trades in guru-rotations right from the start of the season. Or even saving up many pitcher trades and going on extended daily rotations.
I will probably try a little different strategy with each of my teams. Some ideas so far...
#1 played like last year, rotating studs.
#2 pitcher trade conservation, only picking up the latest pitcher money train.
#3 saving trades, using trades only to rotate into the best matchups...strictly points.
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| | | 23 | Baron
ID: 011301222
Mon, Feb 25, 2002, 15:40
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Chicago TRS, i also have been using the same stategy for the past two years however there's something else i do too, only use the absolute minimum pitcher trades the first month of the season. I have two reasons for this: 1.it gives enough time for a lot of the #1 and #2 starters be sceduled in different days. When rotating in the begining of the year, I always ran into all the good pitchers pitching on the same day. Also some of the studs last year don;t turn out to be the same this year 2. I want to see who is the real deal for cheap pitchers. I hate wasting trades on cheap pitchers, so I always hold of jumping the gun to avoid one or two start wonders. I may no jump out of the gate with the most money or a high WWR, but come late May/June June i'm usually in pretty good position.
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| | | 24 | JC REB
ID: 247059
Mon, Feb 25, 2002, 17:34
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Another reason for saving trades is that generally innings pitched for starters will increase with each of the first few starts, so there is more opportunity for points from later season starts.
Really some excellent points, and food for thought in this thread, thanks to all.
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| | | 25 | Khahan
ID: 567232217
Mon, Feb 25, 2002, 21:53
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Eric, Bernie,
If either of you are listening, that opening day price change idea is the best one that has been proposed all winter.
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| | | 26 | Baron
ID: 011301222
Mon, Feb 25, 2002, 22:52
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I haven't signed up yet, so can someone please fill me in on how the pitcher proce changes are going to work this year. Thanks
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| | | 27 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Feb 25, 2002, 23:02
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This is about as much as we know.
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| | | 28 | ChicagoTRS
Sustainer
ID: 5031911
Tue, Feb 26, 2002, 11:39
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Anyone want to share some early opening day rosters? Or players perceived as bargains.
I can share: some obvious guys to watch during the spring are Frank Thomas, Todd Hollandsworth, Rick Ankiel...an obvious pitcher who will probably be on over 50% of opening day rosters is Josh Beckett.
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| | | 29 | perk9600
ID: 4542177
Tue, Feb 26, 2002, 11:52
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ChicagoTRS I am also curious about the same thing. I can tell you that Jason Marquis is probably another one and maybe Junior, Damon, and Daryle Ward. But I am having a tough time at some other postions.
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| | | 30 | Khahan
ID: 12432113
Tue, Feb 26, 2002, 11:56
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yeah, I'll share one of my rosters so far. It is obviously subject to change, but I like it so far.
I admit, it is a high risk, high reward roster at this piont, but I'm hoping it will bring in some quick cash early on that I can spread out and upgrade with:
Pitchers:
Javier Vazquez
Matt Morris
Livan Hernandez (big crossed fingers)
James Baldwin
Paxton Crawford
Catcher
Ivan Rodriguez
1st Base
Nick Johnson
2nd Base
Jose Ortiz
SS
Juan Uribe
3rd Base
Adrian Beltre
Outfield
Adam Dunn
Johnny Damon
Daryle Ward
Tim Salmon
....
There are some nice bargains out there. Actually more than I thought.
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| | | 31 | perk9600
ID: 4542177
Tue, Feb 26, 2002, 11:59
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The Florida pitching staff appears to have like 3 young guns in the 3-4 million range. Dempster is another one that I like. Nice roster Khahan I have put together two teams so far, and like you my roster without one of the Three headed monsters looks the best. My only problem is that my pitchers are all in the 3 million range so I really wont be able to rotate into the big guns early on. I may need to change that, but we'll see.
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| | | 32 | sean
ID: 21172612
Tue, Feb 26, 2002, 12:19
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I think there are some good hitting sleepers in th A.L.
Mike Cuddyer 1B .91 mil.
Jay Gibbons OF 1.92 mil.
Travis Fryman 3B 1.68 mil.
Some pitching sleepers might be
Brett Tomko 1.5 mil
Nick Neugebauer 1.09 mil
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| | | 33 | smallwhirled
Donor
ID: 157582113
Tue, Feb 26, 2002, 12:33
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I like Tomko as well.
I'm going to probably have 2 teams, and I'm gonna set one up with guys who I think are underpriced while not worrying too much about the ownership aspect (except for Burkett, no way am I getting him).
On the other one I will look for something similar but really look at the ownership i.e. how many people drafted that player. I don't really like heavily owned guys early on.
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| | | 34 | Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 3711402623
Tue, Feb 26, 2002, 13:00
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Todd Zeile at $2.99m is a fair bet to have a career year
I like unproven Jose Ortiz at $2.71m for the same reason I like Zeile
I really want to like Ben Petrick at $2.62m, but there are oodles of options at C. Every one of them is under $4.8m execpt for Piazza and after LoDuca, Pudge, Posada, Kendall and Lieberthal, only Varitek is over $3m. I really like Meluskey at $2.45m (too bad he plays in that huge park now) and Wiki Gonzalez at 1.95m. Toby Hall, considered a ROY candidate is at $2.55m and Javy Lopez at $2.53 shouldn't be ignored.
Steve Cox will be the starting 1b in TB for $2.13m
Jay Bell probably just became worth more than his $2.45 pricetag
D'Angelo Jiminez is raved about in Baseball Weekly and priced at $1.89m
Alfonzo Soriano hit 34 2b, 18hr, had 73 rbi and stole 43 bases from the bottom of the order last year. I went looking for a thread started on a bogus rumor that had Soeiano and Pokey Reese in a straight up deal last yeaar. I guess the thread was deleted. After posting that it would be a devastating mistake, several gurupies jumped on me, saying that Soriano was a bust. Ha! If he improves on his .303 OBP at all, his $3.96m price is one of the better bargains I've found.
That's only through 2b. There's a lot of those guys out there. And not too hard to find them.
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| | | 35 | Khahan
ID: 12432113
Tue, Feb 26, 2002, 13:21
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It wasn't a bogus rumor, it was just a real offer that the Yankees didn't bite on.
I've changed 2 positions on my roster. It is as you guys see it above. Originally I had Ausmus (1.5mil) at catcher and Frank Thomas at 1st base.
I was thinking Nick Johnson, being in a line up with Giambi, Jeter, Posada and Williams is a steal at his price. And Pudge, he'll start the season on fire. Even if he goes down with an injury, I can always trade out of him.
Which combo do you guys think has the best upside:
Pudge/Johnson or Thomas/Ausmus?
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| | | 36 | Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 3711402623
Tue, Feb 26, 2002, 13:29
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I'd wait for Pudge to show that there isn't rust left to shake off. Also, with all those hitters, I don't think you can expect Pudge to DH every game he doesn't start at C anymore. You could have LoDuca for another $120k or Posada for $780k less. Slated for some DH time (IIRC), Melusky might be a safe bet to lead C in ab this year.
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| | | 37 | Ditka85
ID: 181302613
Tue, Feb 26, 2002, 13:34
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I know it doesn't mean much, but Pudge faces some tough pitching in his first few games.
I like Tomko also, but a lot will depend on where he is in the rotation.
I think Lima will be back and better, and I like McKnight from Pittsburgh for 0.72.
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| | | 38 | beastiemiked
ID: 17414316
Tue, Feb 26, 2002, 13:41
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Zeile would be a bargin if he didn't start the season @stl and @la. He'll be heavily owned to start the season and unless he can produce at those ballparks expect a drop in price.
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| | | 39 | Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 3711402623
Tue, Feb 26, 2002, 13:45
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Thanks BMD, I haven't even started looking at scheds yet. That's actually great, assuming he is widely held at the start of the game and doesn't produce in stl and la, a big sellof after the first week and he's that much cheaper.
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| | | 40 | beastiemiked
ID: 17414316
Tue, Feb 26, 2002, 13:46
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On the same note as that Ditka, Oakland faces some tough bats the first weekend vs Texas.
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| | | 41 | beastiemiked
ID: 17414316
Tue, Feb 26, 2002, 14:38
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Khahan,
"P Paxton Crawford - 02/16/02 update: The Boston Herald reports that Crawford underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder earlier this week. Doctors repaired a damaged tendon in Crawford’s pitching shoulder on February 12 and rehab will sideline him about three months. The 24-year-old Crawford has been plagued by injuries, as he was limited to just 14 starts between Boston and Triple-A Pawtuckett in 2001 due to a lower back/vertebrae stress fracture. He was 3-0 with a 4.75 ERA in eight games with the BoSox last year. " from fanball.com
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| | | 42 | Khahan
ID: 12432113
Tue, Feb 26, 2002, 15:20
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Hey Beastiemiked, thanks. Looks like I'll need another cheap pitcher with at least some potential.
As for schedules, I noticed that Milwaukee opens in Houston. Maybe some of those sluggers suddenly look more apealing to an opening day roster.
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| | | 43 | Khahan
ID: 12432113
Tue, Feb 26, 2002, 15:20
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Hey Beastiemiked, thanks. Looks like I'll need another cheap pitcher with at least some potential.
As for schedules, I noticed that Milwaukee opens in Houston. Maybe some of those sluggers suddenly look more apealing to an opening day roster.
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| | | 44 | mrbig
ID: 481572514
Tue, Feb 26, 2002, 17:30
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If I remember, Milwaukee played Houston a couple of times early last year. I seem to remember Wade Miller striking out somewhere around a million Brewers...
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| | | 45 | sean
ID: 4038818
Tue, Feb 26, 2002, 18:47
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The team with the best park schedule out of the gate might be Houston up until April 21st or so. They play most of those series in Enron and one at Coors..... although they do have to face St.Louis's pitching twice.
I'm planning on drafting Ensberg and Ward both. What do you guys think about Darrin Fletcher at 1.67 mil? He hit .291 18HR and .320 20 HR in 1999 and 2000 and his backups Phelps and Werth have no major league experience.
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| | | 47 | Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 3711402623
Tue, Feb 26, 2002, 19:36
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sean
Last I read Phelps won't likely make the team, they want him hitting every day. Fletcher's job is in danger if he does. Phelps might be the best C prospect in baseball. If you haven't seen it already, check post 34 for some C ideas. For $200k more I like Wiki. He's starting, he hit .275 with 8 hr in 160ab last year and Sportsline projects him to over 400 at bats this year.
I don't know much about Fletcher or any reasons for what his dropoff might have been.
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| | | 48 | sean
ID: 4038818
Tue, Feb 26, 2002, 22:32
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mattinglyinthehall,
Thank You for the feedback. I think I'm going to draft Kendall for right now and possibly reevaluate the catcher position (along with everything else) at the end of March.
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| | | 49 | Gangman
Leader
ID: 4310591222
Tue, Feb 26, 2002, 22:45
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Wade Miller beat the Brewers 5 times last
year, tying a NL record.
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| | | 50 | tduncan
ID: 47616279
Wed, Feb 27, 2002, 05:40
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P
Schmidt, Jason SF 3,810,000
Burnett, A.J. FLA 3,720,000
Dempster, Ryan FLA 3,660,000
Anderson, Matt DET 3,500,000
Hampton, Mike COL 2,620,000
C
Gonzalez, Wiki SD 1,950,000
1B
Clark, Tony BOS 3,470,000
2B
Soriano, Alfonso NYA 3,960,000
3B
Zeile, Todd NYN 2,990,000
SS
Izturis, Cesar LA 1,890,000
OF
Ordonez, Magglio CHA 6,430,000
Cameron, Mike SEA 5,040,000
Wilson, Preston FLA 3,940,000
Hollandsworth, Todd COL 2,860,000
Total Value = 49,840,000 TSND
Cash = 160,000 TSND
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| | | 51 | Gangman
Leader
ID: 4310591222
Wed, Feb 27, 2002, 07:57
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Morgan Ensberg still has to win a job (over
Chris Truby). Strange pricing on him....
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| | | 53 | Mark L
Leader
ID: 4444938
Wed, Feb 27, 2002, 10:00
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Five times, big deal. The Seligs beat the Brewers 162 times every year.
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| | | 54 | CanEHdian Pride
ID: 426351415
Wed, Feb 27, 2002, 12:05
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Peter N.
From what I hear Brian Moehler won't be back until late June or possibly post-ASB.
Brain Moehler
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| | | 55 | ChicagoTRS
Sustainer
ID: 5031911
Wed, Feb 27, 2002, 12:43
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How much cash does everyone try to have left over after you make your initial roster?
Personally I try to limit my opening roster to 47.5-48.5 million so I have some flexibility to move to the best hitting money earner if the player is not already on my roster. There is nothing I hate more than having to make multiple roster moves to get a player I want or feel I need. Nothing worse than being 10K short of making your desired move.
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| | | 56 | GolfFreak
Donor
ID: 250282822
Wed, Feb 27, 2002, 15:36
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Peter N.
Derek Bell - OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Not only were Bell's skills questioned last season -- the worst of his career -- his attitude and durability were as well. That doesn't leave many things left to like about him.
Fantasy Spin: If he doesn't accept a job as a backup outfielder, he'll be looking for one.
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| | | 57 | Gangman
Leader
ID: 36155210
Wed, Feb 27, 2002, 17:32
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For all you Wikians:
Update: Feb 24 10:05pm
Wiki Gonzalez reported overweight. He might
be too content now that he's signed through
2005 and Ben Davis is out of the picture. (Ken
Rosenthal/TSN)
Fantasy Spin: Yikes! We considered this guy a
sleeper heading into this season. Wiki isn't
the only big-leaguer in history to show up to
camp carrying a few extra lbs., but this isn't an
encouraging sign.
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| | | 58 | Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 3711402623
Wed, Feb 27, 2002, 17:40
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ouch! just drafted him as my #2 C too. Maybe he showed up with his gear on under his clothes. Yeah, I'm sure that's it...
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| | | 59 | Peter N.
Donor
ID: 2011382318
Wed, Feb 27, 2002, 19:50
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ouch! Thanks for the updates CP and GolfFreak :-) Plenty of change to come...
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| | | 60 | quik_ag
ID: 368423022
Wed, Feb 27, 2002, 20:13
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Erik, Bernie:
Any chance of an opening day price change based on drafts. I think it's a great idea. It was described to some expense above.
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| | | 61 | beastiemiked
ID: 14821921
Wed, Feb 27, 2002, 20:16
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No way, everybody would draft the same people. Part of the fun in drafting is picking people that everyone else is afraid of.
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| | | 62 | Peter N.
Donor
ID: 2011382318
Wed, Feb 27, 2002, 21:14
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Will go ahead and remove my other post. Also decided that the Big Unit was too big for my budget....at least for this team....
Pitchers
Kevin Brown 7,270,000
Ryan Dempster 3,660,000
Kevin Millwood 2,810,000
Carl Pavano 1,500,000
Brett Tomko 1,500,000
Catcher
Brad Ausmus 1,520,000
First Base
Nick Johnson 2,120,000
Second Base
Jose Ortiz 2,710,000
Third Base
Todd Zeile 2,990,000
Shortstop
A-Rod 8,100,000
Outfield
Ken Griffey Jr. 4,770,000
Johny Damon 3,210,000
Todd Hollandsworth 2,860,000
Daryle Ward 3,140,000
Roster Value
48,160,000
Remaining Cash
1,840,000
As always, subject to change ;-)
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| | | 63 | ChicagoTRS
Sustainer
ID: 58735170
Wed, Feb 27, 2002, 21:22
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I don't think the opening day price change has to be huge...just like a normal price change from last year. 150K or so for the most drafted on down. Just gives everyone a little cushion to hold onto a player a little longer. I think it makes sense in context of the game...player prices are supposed to be market driven...why wouldn't they increase if many people draft the same player? I think it makes too much sense...last year was my first year playing and frankly I was surprised there was no price increase based on the ownership after the draft.
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| | | 64 | Mr. Nice Guy
ID: 421124113
Wed, Feb 27, 2002, 23:45
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P Team Next Game ERA W SO Last Total Sell For:
Johnson, Randy ARI 04/01 SD 2.49 21 372 .0 3539.0 11,500,000
Pineiro, Joel SEA 04/01 CHA 2.03 6 56 .0 956.0 3,850,000
Beckett, Josh FLA 04/02 @ MON 1.50 2 24 .0 316.0 3,640,000
Hernandez, Carlos HOU 04/02 MIL 1.02 1 17 .0 250.0 1,480,000
Ankiel, Rick STL 04/01 COL 7.13 1 27 .0 42.0 1,350,000
C Team Next Game BA HR RBI Last Total Sell For:
Hall, Toby TB 04/02 DET .298 4 30 .0 461.0 2,550,000
1B
Pena, Carlos TEX 04/01 @ OAK .258 3 12 .0 166.0 3,400,000
2B
Ortiz, Jose COL 04/01 @ STL .240 13 38 .0 623.0 2,710,000
3B
Burroughs, Sean SD 04/01 @ ARI .0 .0 3,500,000
SS
Larkin, Barry CIN 04/01 CHN .256 2 17 .0 370.0 3,250,000
OF
Pierre, Juan COL 04/01 @ STL .327 2 55 .0 1764.0 4,730,000
Damon, Johnny BOS 04/01 TOR .256 9 49 .0 1335.0 3,210,000
Hollandsworth, Todd COL 04/01 @ STL .368 6 19 .0 496.0 2,860,000
Gibbons, Jay BAL 04/01 NYA .236 15 36 .0 530.0 1,920,000
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| | | 65 | beastiemiked
ID: 14821921
Thu, Feb 28, 2002, 00:32
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TRS, a utility spot over a 4th OFer makes too much sense.
Seriously though, I haven't really put down a team yet but if there was a opening day price change my strategy would change a lot. Basically all the gainers on the first day would already have momentum and more than likely keep gaining for the first few days. Compound this to your 9 position players on your roster and that's a lot of money.
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| | | 66 | ChicagoTRS
Sustainer
ID: 58735170
Thu, Feb 28, 2002, 06:49
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At least last year all of the most widely owned/drafted players were the players who gained money the first few price changes anyway...Walker, Furcal, Soriano, Branyan, Gonzalez...etc... I don't see how having a draft price change would change that much. The reason someone would be highly drafted is directly because they are underpriced...makes sense in a market driven game these highly drafted players might see a bump in price.
I agree on the utility position...
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| | | 67 | Stuck in the Sixties
Leader
ID: 12451279
Thu, Feb 28, 2002, 11:33
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First draft:
Oswalt - My only pitcher above $5, I think he's still undervalued because he basically didn't pitch the first month or so of the season and TSN is obviously pegging price to last year's production.
Beckett - I saw this guy pitch in September and he's the real deal. Many pubs have him the top rookie pitcher in MLB. We'll see but hard to argue with the price.
Cruz -- Also didn't pitch until the last months and did extremely well. Blazing fastball that lineup will bring him a few wins even when he's off.
Ishii -- Unlike the new hitters (Ensberg, Burroughs), this guy is reasonably priced and has been solid in Japan for more than a few years. And 23 of the Dodgers first 40 road games are in pitcher's parks. Could be a steal.
Ankiel -- Well, ya gotta take a chance somewhere. All the reports out of Jupiter, Fla., seem to indicate that the control problems are a thing of the past. If so, Ank may be the best value on the boards. We'll see. If he's the 4 or 5 coming north, then you gotta figure he's worth the price.
LoDuca -- about the only position where I'm prepared to spend more than 4.50. This guy was so solid I can just plug him in and forget it. Also, one of my big mistakes last year was following the cheapie catcher du jour. This will avoid that mistake.
Steve Cox -- Quite a price for a guy who's a starter. But he hit .260 last year and is one of the guys I'm expecting to switch into whoever's hot coming into week 2.
D'Angelo Jiminez -- The scouts and draft mags are wild about this guy and think he's a lock to hit .300. For this price, I'll take a chance.
Bill Mueller - With his injury, last year was basically a write-off and so he's tremendously undervalued IMHO. He'll be hitting second and so will score a bunch of runs in addition to a solid OBP. With Sosa hitting behind you, the pitches tend to improve.
Furcal - The wild card here is his rehab. Is he completely healed? If so, he becomes a bargain with his ability to lead the league in SB. If he looks weak early, this is another position to switch.
Griffey - His price is reflective of last year, rather than his ability as a hitter. He wasn't healthy for 15 straight games all last year. Let's see what happens but he has the potential to be a real money train early.
Stewart - A .300 hitter who can steal 40-50 bases for just over 4.50. He was an early train last year and could do the same again this time.
Dunn -- I'm afraid of this guy. Since his price is based on a half-season worth of numbers, he's easily one of the most underpriced players on the boards. Which means that almost everyone will have him. So if there's a slow start, his price could sink like a rock. But what a swing!! Reminds me of Berkman but with more power.
Erstad -- Another underachiever who will hit leadoff this year. Although that will hurt his power numbers, he'll score a bunch of runs and if he approaches his performance of two years ago, he'll be another steal.
I'd be interested in other folks' appraisals of their lineups.
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| | | 68 | smallwhirled
Donor
ID: 157582113
Thu, Feb 28, 2002, 11:54
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Beckett and Dunn are probably the 2 guys that I will stay away from on 1 or maybe all of my teams when I draft. I really don't want those widely owned guys. I hope that a Hollandsworth type can produce similarly to Dunn w/o having to throw away an early trade when Dunn is first dropped.
Oh and *wink wink* is someone going to post something about some sampled drafts? That would be nice.
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| | | 69 | CanEHdian Pride
ID: 426351415
Thu, Feb 28, 2002, 12:28
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Was planning to open the season with Junior Griffey but he is already going to miss some ST games and I think that waiting to pick him up is the best option.
Griffey
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| | | 70 | Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 3711402623
Thu, Feb 28, 2002, 12:32
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I agree. I think it important to start off focusing on making cash with your trades. I agree with TRS that based on what I consider a basic premise of the game, we should be rewarded for drafting playters that start off heavily owned, not penalized.
I assume that this really only affects hitters now because of the new pitchers' price change structure. Applying one day's worth of trade activity to represent the opening day changes would only cause 1/5 the change that we might see on an average Thursday after a week or so into the season. No?
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| | | 71 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Feb 28, 2002, 12:40
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No, MITH. I'd expect more pitcher price volatility in the opening few days, since trades will be much more one-directional. Early starters will be sold (before getting bought again), and later starters will be bought without the drag of prior sells.
Also, price changes have always been based on the proportion of trades made into (or out of) a player relative to the total trades made for the period. This creates the potential for greater price swings on days with light trading, especially if there is a trading theme. The total number of trades made does not have any direct bearing on the magnitude of price changes.
Thus, prior experience suggests that the first few days of pitcher repricing will see higher volatility, not lower. After a rotation cycle has been completed, more stability should set in.
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| | | 72 | Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 3711402623
Thu, Feb 28, 2002, 12:44
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The total number of trades made does not have any direct bearing on the magnitude of price changes.
I always assumed the opposite to be the case, that days that showed minimal price resulted from minimal trading activity the previous day. Interesting.
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| | | 73 | beastiemiked
ID: 17414316
Thu, Feb 28, 2002, 13:45
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You have to remember that last year was a free game and people made teams even after the season started(Day Late J). This year there will be very few late entries and probably not enough to affect prices.
The fact doesn't change that people would change their draft strategy and a lot of teams would have many of the same players on them if there was a draft day repricing. There are a lot of players that have been getting a lot hype that I think won't live up to early expectations but if there was a draft day repricing I would get them because you couldn't afford to miss out on their price gains.
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| | | 74 | smallwhirled
Donor
ID: 157582113
Thu, Feb 28, 2002, 13:47
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I'd have to guess that (Day Late J) will still be around because he made a day late ultimate basketball team, and he's been on fire lately. His day late team is killing my "b" team.
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| | | 75 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Feb 28, 2002, 13:52
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Here are some references:
SW article from Sept. 2000, written by Dean Carrano, who was a SW writer at the time.
Peeking Behind the Pricing Curtain. This is an essay I wrote in May, 1999, when SW publicized the weekly (pricing was done weekly that year) buy and sell trades for each player. The article that Dean Carrano wrote 1-1/2 years later (linked above) essentially confirmed everything that I had figured out. Gravity was introduced in between those two pieces, though, so my initial exposition was pre-gravity.
Here is an example, which is know is oversimplified, but is aimed at highlighting this specific proportionality issue:
Consider two trading periods.
In one period, there are 100 buys, of which 10 are for Barry Bonds.
In another period, there are 1000 buys, of which 20 are for Bonds.
In the first case, Bonds got 10% of the buys. In the second, he got only 2%, even though he had more total buys.
His price gain in the first case will be 5 times greater than his price gain in the second.
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| | | 76 | beastiemiked
ID: 17414316
Thu, Feb 28, 2002, 14:00
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Actually only 1 game on the slate for opening day so first repricing is kinda of a repricing on the heavily drafted players.
Drafting a team after the first Monday's games wouldn't be such a bad idea. Not only could you get a good idea of who's going up but you really wouldn't miss any pitcher starts. Plus with the 5 day price swing for pitchers those pitchers going on Tuesday you might see a nice jump that first pitcher price change. Also, you wouldn't be missing out on many points now that the hitters scoring has been reduced. I'm going to have to think about this more.
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| | | 77 | Craig
ID: 31121215
Thu, Feb 28, 2002, 16:24
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Hampton w/ 2 straights starts on the road at 2.6 million seems like a major bargain to me
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| | | 78 | perk9600
ID: 4542177
Thu, Feb 28, 2002, 16:28
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Good call. He does look cheap, but at home you don't want to have him for certain.
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| | | 79 | biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 3502218
Thu, Feb 28, 2002, 16:31
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Hampton's road stats went to hell after the first month or two as well, iirc. I think he must have tried to modify his pitching somehow to account for the lack of movement in the thin air, and completely fouled up his whole delivery. Buyer beware.
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| | | 80 | J
Leader
ID: 34451212
Thu, Feb 28, 2002, 16:39
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You can count on seeing a Day Late J again. I pretty much do it in all sports, one day late team, one reg team. Its a great way to get a head start on your roster value, which will allow you to get studs sooner than others, which makes up for the point loss of the first day or two.
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| | | 81 | J
Leader
ID: 34451212
Thu, Feb 28, 2002, 16:56
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For some reason I can never quite make it work in football though ;)
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| | | 82 | beastiemiked
ID: 17414316
Fri, Mar 01, 2002, 11:11
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"Note: Sean Burroughs (3B, SD) has been made available for purchase at $3,500,000 TSND. "
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| | | 83 | smallwhirled
Donor
ID: 157582113
Mon, Mar 04, 2002, 04:43
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When I sorted players by total TSNP, I saw Burroughs at the top of the list, above RJ, and he's got 0's.
A glitch I guess.
I signed up for only one team, I'm a cheap college student. So, I'm not going with a "Day Late SW" or anything like that. I'm just going with my gut.
RE: post #66, There are not enough trades to have a bunch of widely owend players. I'll take the lesser owned players in a heartbeat this early in the season, and I'll move into the trains....hopefully I get lucky and draft a few. If a widely owned player bombs it, he'll be dropped in a heartbeat, and I don't like playing with fire.
A few more points....
I wonder how much the guys with a ton of K's are going to get hurt this year, Burnitz for example.
Ichiro at his price is crazy, if you can't hit HR's and you're over 5 million, then you're a waste in the TSN game IMO.
I thought I read somewhere that Cruz will not be in the starting rotation to begin the season?
It's hard to not look at I-Rod's price.
I guess that's all I see right now.
;-)
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| | | 84 | Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 1832399
Mon, Mar 04, 2002, 10:02
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smallwhirled
Note that the gap between high BA hitters and power hitters has been closed somewhat by making outs -2 instead of -1. Consider that under the new system, Brian Giles, Chipper Jones, Gary Sheffield, Bobby Abreu and Manny Ramirez all produced within .6swp/g of Ichiro last season, though they hit 37, 38, 36, 31 and 41 HR respectivey. Ichiro hit 8hr. Also note that Jose Cruz, Jim Edmonds, Reggie Sanders, Ellis Burks and Trot Nixon all produced at least 1swp/g less than Ichiro (2swp/g less for Burks and Nixon) while they hit 34, 30, 33, 28 and 27 hr respectively.
I'm not arguing for people to put Ichiro on their teams as I personally doubt he will repeat. All of the players I mentioned above are over $5m, except for Nixon and Burks.
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| | | 85 | APerfect10
ID: 3257215
Wed, Mar 06, 2002, 03:14
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Is anyone else disappointed in The Sporting News' attempt to level the playing field. While there are advantages of having Erik B and company around, I also feel it has hurt us. It appears TSN has smartened up.
a) Highly touted prospects prices are ridiculously inflated.
(Last year you could buy Soriano & Ortiz, rookies who would be everyday players for under 1.5M, unlike this year. The cheapest everyday player I could find was around 2M)
b) The scoring method has changed and gives pitchers an advantage over hitters, compared to last year. The prices already reflect this and in previous years they wouldnt.
Now I am not saying there are no gems, but making a 'solid' opening day roster appears much harder and/or cookie cutter compared to previous years. The only area they have not repriced is players who either played a shortened season last year or were on the DL, and this area must be exploited to have a competitive roster.
IMHO, I feel TSN has gone overboard and are trying to outwit the smart players. It appears they have tried to level the playing field for wise and unwise players. Is this helping the game, or hurting it? Only time will tell, but my initial judgement is not a good one.
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| | | 86 | Khahan
ID: 12432113
Wed, Mar 06, 2002, 07:35
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MITH, personally I think Ichiro, overall, was hurt the most by the effect of the -2/out.
Its not necessarily BA that you need to look at. Take a look at OBP. The guys with OBP close to their batting average (meaning very few walks) and high amount of Atbats are the ones who get hurt the most. Out of the top 25 outfielders from last season, Ichiro (692 at bats) had a 450 point difference between his 2001 stats w/ the old forumla and the new formula. Meanwhile, Barry Bonds (476 at bats) had a 320 point difference. Shawn Green (619 at bats) had a 435 point difference. Larry Walker (497 at bats) had a 323 point difference.
The major sluggers who get walks and therefore lower their at bats will benefit the most compared to the rest of the field.
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| | | 87 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 06, 2002, 07:36
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Let me get this straight.
You say TSN has done a more equitable job of pricing, and that's bad - because you want to be able to capitalize on their mistakes?
If they have "leveled the playing field for wise and unwise players", wouldn't you expect the "wise" players to do better? If anything, I would think this should benefit the "wise" player, since the "unwise" would always identify the severe mispricings after a few games, and all rosters would converge on those bargains.
Also, your assertion in (b) is false. When there have been formula changes, the draft prices have always reflected those changes.
I guess I'm having a tough time understanding the problem here.
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| | | 88 | ChicagoTRS
Sustainer
ID: 59239510
Wed, Mar 06, 2002, 09:08
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I echo what Guru said...
The tougher the better as far as I am concerned. The tougher they make it the more it should benefit the 'wise' fantasy players. If it is easy to draft a team or easy to make the same moves it lumps the average and the good players together because the right moves are simple to figure out.
That being said I think there are plenty of easy to spot bargains still...it is not all that tough to build a very solid opening day roster.
In theory I really like what they have done with the pitcher pricing changes. It is yet to be seen whether this can be expoited easily. Anything to make randro pitching rotations a weaker strategy has to benefit the 'wise' player...allows the wise player to use his pitcher trades efficiently and should really seperate that player from the people who will still blindly randro. It still remains to be seen if this is the case in execution of the new pricing formulas.
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| | | 89 | APerfect10
ID: 3257215
Wed, Mar 06, 2002, 11:01
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Guru, you make some very valid points and I agree with you almost completely. I apologize for part b) if that is incorrect. I guess I did a poor job of posting the point of my post. So I will give it another try.
TSN has TRIED to level the playing field but have failed IMO. In previous years there were a few areas a 'wise' player could exploit. ie) Everday rookies/prospects, injured players, etc. While some of these areas are fixed appropriately, others are not. Therefore leaving a small window to exploit. In previous years, there were many exploitable areas therefore leaving the 'wise' player able to partially differentiate his roster from the 'unwise'. Since that window has been decreased but still remains there, this years rosters, IMHO, needs to have any/all areas that can be exploited, in their roster, to be competitive. Maybe this has seperated the 'wise' vs 'unwise' but has it given the 'wise' room to distinguish themselves as 'elite'?
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| | | 90 | Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 1832399
Wed, Mar 06, 2002, 11:27
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Perhaps they chose instead to seperate the "wise" from the "somewhat more wise". Sure, some "wise" folks who have done their research might be a little disappointed to find Jose Ortiz and Josh Beckett (for example) at $2.71m and $3.64m when they were sure they'd be a couple of sleepers. But the "somewhat more wise" folks might be delighted to find out that their extra, deeper research paid off, as while the folks they might consider "posers" who are high on their knowledge of Beckett and last years news now in Colorado, the harder to find gems like Michael Cuddyer, who just might hat 30hr this year is a very managable $.91m. I think it is a great thing that TSN has made it more difficult for managers to "distinguish themselves as elite" with research.
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| | | 91 | mr g
ID: 15311150
Wed, Mar 06, 2002, 23:23
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first price update will be march 1, now how does that work for pitcher, will no pitcher price's move for atleast 4 more days or will it be based on pitcher purchases that night.
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| | | 92 | APerfect10
ID: 3257215
Wed, Mar 06, 2002, 23:48
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mr g, the impression I am under is the prices will change that first day based on the previous days activity like previous years. The difference this year is that the first days activity will have MORE influence on the next 5 pitcher price changes than any other day of the season.
Previous Discussion on Pitcher Repricing and the effects of it
Best of luck!
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| | | 93 | mr g
ID: 15311150
Thu, Mar 07, 2002, 01:08
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lets hope so because that's what i was thinking 2
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