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| Posted by: newbie
- [12392015] Thu, Mar 21, 2002, 22:48
Hello all. This will be my first year playing SN fantasy baseball and I would like some help with drafting my initial roster. I just discovered this site the other day and have found it to be an incredibly useful tool. There is so much information here it's a little hard to decipher it all in such a short time. The main problem I'm having is an inability to find posts relevant to *this* upcoming season. I've found it somewhat difficult to decipher whether some threads are related to this year, last year, or even 2000 or 1999. My one piece of constructive criticism would be that perhaps there should be a year included with the date on the posts. That being said, this site is fantastic. Thanks to whoever runs it and all the knowledgeable people posting here.
Alright, now to the point. As I said, this is my first year playing and I need a little advice. For instance, drafting strategy - should I concentrate on loading up on either proven pitchers and/or hitters, or should I focus more on finding sleepers? If I focus on sleepers shoud I concentrate on pitchers or hitters? Should I try to find a mix of both (ie three proven pitcher and two sleepers; 6 proven hitters and 4 sleepers, or similar combos). I'm of the mind, after reading some of the stuff here, to draft a very strong pitching staff and choose all cheap hitters.
I don't know, for instance, what to expect from a money making standpoint. How much are the player salaries going to fluctuate on a day-to-day basis? Will the hitters fluctuate more than the pitchers due to the new pitcher's algorythm? Will even the high priced players' salaries expand once the season starts as long as they perform at expected levels? Or will they tend to sink if the players start off cold. How much of a risk is a $6,000,000 player that you're not too sure about. I take it you want every player on your roster to be someone who's salary should be expected to climb. On the flip side of that, you would probably want to make an effort to avoind any players who's salary has the potential to drop even the slightest amount. Is this the proper mentality to have?
Next, how should I approach my trades? Should I begin the season trading or is it safe to hold off for a few weeks and build up a cache of them? Should I rotate pitchers early, or is it safe to wait and lose out on those points early?
Also, how does the roster freeze relate to the salary upgrades? If I have Randy Johnson at noon on the day he pitches, then drop him at 12:15pm that same day, I still get his points if he throws that night, right? Will I avoid some of the dip his salary may take when people trade out of him later that night or early the next day? Or an even better example may be if one of my players gets injured, will it be of any monetary advantage to trade him that very minute, or will the effect be the same as long as I trade him out by noon the next day?
I hope these questions all make sense. Perhaps it will be helpful if I post one of my preliminary lineups and ask for feedback. I'm playing 3 teams, and I'm leaning towards going with a bunch of hitters who's salaries I'm confident will rise throughout the early part of the season at least...and 4 solid pitchers with 1 sleeper in the mix. Here's one of my rosters as of today. Any commentary would be greatly appreciated.
SP Mussina, Mike NYA 8,240,000
SP Hudson, Tim OAK 6,720,000
CL Kim, Byung-Hyun ARI 4,580,000
SP Sheets, Ben MIL 3,320,000
SP Hamilton, Joey CIN 1,020,000
C Barrett, Michael MON 1,690,000
1B Ortiz, David MIN 2,610,000
2B Ortiz, Jose COL 2,710,000
3B Blalock, Hank TEX 2,500,000
SS Izturis, Cesar LA 1,890,000
OF Drew, J.D. STL 6,100,000
OF Dunn, Adam CIN 4,050,000
OF Jones, Jacque MIN 2,560,000
OF Roberts, Dave LA 500,000
This leaves me with about 1,500,000 extra cash, which should provide some early season flexiblity. (As far as Roberts goes, I'm basing that on the assumption he wins the centerfield job. If he doesn't, I'll find somebody else for 500,000 that's going to be a starter.) As you can see, almost all of my hitters (and a couple pitchers) could be classified as gambles, but I don't think any of them should dip in price. I expect most, if not all, to make money. Is that assumption wrong?
I apologize for the long post, but I have a lot of questions. Plus, I'm generally a long-winded blowhard anyway. Thanks again for any and all feedback.
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| | | 1 | newbie
ID: 12392015
Thu, Mar 21, 2002, 22:58
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Just wanted to clarify about the date on the posts. I could have sworn the years weren't on there when I was reading through messages the other day. I must have just missed them because the year is obviously there now. So I guess I don't have any criticism after all!
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| | | 2 | Perm Dude
Leader
ID: 6235820
Thu, Mar 21, 2002, 23:10
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Rather than pick apart your team, let me just lay a little TSN success strategy on you. The name of the game is both points accumulation and roster value increases. Roster values go up as more people buy a player, and down as they are sold (also, players not actively traded drop a small amount each price change, an occurance we call "price gravity"). It's better to spend more time on roster value increases early on in order to afford the All-Star team at the end of the year (let's face it, you'll want to field a team with Ichiro, Bonds, and Griffey than Bradley, Canseco, and Knobby, and the way to get there is by increasing your roster value early).
Pitchers with two starts in a week, underpriced injury replacements, any Colorado positional player entering a long homestand are all players you want to keep in mind.
My suggestion is to read through this post by Pink Pimp, which lays it all out. Although it's in greater detail that you think you'll need, and was written for last season, many (if not all) of the strategies discussed still apply. Take the time to read through it even if it doesn't make a lot of sense yet.
Then, use the thread filter at the bottom of the Forum page to pull up all threads submitted by Madman. Same thing applies to his threads.
Also, everyone has their own strategy, which changes several times over the course of the season (and even between your own teams at the same time!). Don't worry if you disagree with some well-written posts. Just make sure you have your own reasons!
Finally, if you like the site, consider dropping a little cash to the Guru. We owe our little community to him.
pd
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| | | 3 | newbie
ID: 12392015
Thu, Mar 21, 2002, 23:49
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Thanks for the input Perm. Let me ask you this - how soon does the trading start to affect salaries? For instance, if everybody and their grandmother picks up Blalock before the season starts, is his salary going to jump on or immediately after opening day? Or will his salary increases (or decreases) only be affected by the trades made AFTER the season begins. Do you see what I'm asking? Do I want to get on players now that I expect everybody else is getting on too? Or do I want to look for players that I don't think as many others will have on their initial rosters, and hope people start to jump on them after a week or so of play?
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| | | 4 | Mike D
Donor
ID: 37222147
Thu, Mar 21, 2002, 23:56
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After. In fact, heavily drafted players are set up to lose money if they indeed are sold early on.
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| | | 5 | Perm Dude
Leader
ID: 6235820
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 00:00
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Only trades after the initial roster freeze count toward the changes in value. Therefore, players that are highly drafted on Opening Day will have a downward price sensitivity. Opening Day pitchers will probably lose a lot of value with the first pitching price change due to the heavy sell-off.
So you need to get in on a player before everyone picks him up (or at worst, at the same time everyone else does).
Another quick point: You don't gain or lose anything until you sell a player whose price has changed. If a guy's price goes up when you have him you won't be able to use that increase unless you sell him, so player drops are as timely as player pickups. On the other hand if a guy you are holding has a price drop, all other things being equal you might just want to suffer through the price drop if he's still producing points, since his price change won't effect you until you sell him.
Luckily these boards will give you a lot of information about guys that you might not hear about elsewhere.
pd
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| | | 6 | RecycledSpinalFluid
ID: 1924582
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 00:08
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The initial freeze is the base line for player ownership. Prices changes are then determined from this point. Therefore, if everyone and his dog owns a particular player, there will probably be little upward price movement (this would be from limited new buys and newly created teams). As Mike D points out, they are actually set to be big price losers, that is if they underproduce and the crowd moves onto other players.
The prices changes are figured from player movement AFTER the initial freeze date.
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| | | 7 | RecycledSpinalFluid
ID: 1924582
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 00:09
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Hmmm, slow typists disease. What he said...
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| | | 8 | newbie
ID: 12392015
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 00:16
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Thanks again fellas. Man, everytime I think I'm figuring this thing out I find something that changes my whole outlook. And every time I get an answer to something, it leads me to another question. About the trading activity - will the number of owners who own specific players be made available to everybody? In other words, are we able to see how many people own so-and-so, or how many times he was bought or sold the day before? Or will we have to just look at his performance and salary fluctuations and try to decipher what his current trading trend is?
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| | | 9 | RecycledSpinalFluid
ID: 1924582
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 00:25
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1.) About the trading activity - will the number of owners who own specific players be made available to everybody? In other words, are we able to see how many people own so-and-so, or how many times he was bought or sold the day before?
No, therefore:
2.) Or will we have to just look at his performance and salary fluctuations and try to decipher what his current trading trend is?
Yes
Also, search for threads explaining the idea of "gravity". There is a breaking point in player ownership where, if a player is owned by a certain percentage of teams, then his price will stay the same (if not enough movement to go up or down). If a player is below this predetermined percentage, then (if not enough movement to go up or down) the play will automaticly lose a certain amount of money. Last season, I believe it was 30,000 per day below the percentage. You can gauge basic player ownership from this (sorta).
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| | | 10 | newbie
ID: 12392015
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 00:34
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Also, is it safe to say that I should be more concened with finding players that I think will, *regardless of their price* :
a) not be heavily drafted
b) be very productive, and hence
c) induce a lot of people to buy into them...
...rather than simply looking for very cheap players that I think will produce well, but that I expect many people to draft too?
Would the first option be the way to go if I was choosing between those two tactics?
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| | | 11 | Rogue's Strikers
ID: 32462118
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 00:42
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Yes, although thats a pretty tough task. Finding productive players who are underpriced is tough enough, its even harder to find ones who won't be drafted heavily.
Basically you've got the right idea. Now its time to put that knowledge into action, and thats definitely the hardest part.
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| | | 12 | newbie
ID: 12392015
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 01:14
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Alright, one more question and I swear I'll shut up! I know this one is sort of addressed in posts from previous years, but since they're using a new algorythm for the pitcher's salaries this year I figured I'd ask. Maybe they used it last year, too.
Anyway...if I've got, say, Pedro on the day he pitches, then I trade him out that night, will I avoid the dip in salary he takes the next day due to a bunch of other owners selling him too? In other words, if I trade him before that price change takes effect, can I skirt the losses? If I understand correctly, the price changes occur daily at noon. So as long as I'm out of him by the time that change occurs, I'm free of whatever hit his salary takes, right? I assume that was the whole principal behind the "Randro" strategy.
More importantly, if a lightly regarded hitter who you don't own has a career day, can you make money by buying him after the game (but before the next salary upgrade at noon the next day) in anticipation of other owners doing the same thing? Can you ride that salary bump even though you didn't have the player until after his big game?
Wow, that was more than one question wasn't it?
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| | | 13 | RecycledSpinalFluid
ID: 1924582
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 01:37
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If you sell him before the freeze (for example, immediately after the final out after the Red Sox beat the Yankee$) then you will not get hit with the price drop. If you hold him, drink too much beer celebrating the Red Sox' lone AL East victory, and miss the freeze time (therefore still own Pedro after the freeze), you will take the hit. At this point, Pedro most like is staying on your roster until his next game, which isn't a bad thing.
Whatever price he is when you hit the "sell" button is what you will get.
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| | | 14 | RecycledSpinalFluid
ID: 1924582
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 01:43
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As far as the "a lightly regarded hitter" part have a career day, I think you might want to evaluate what his numbers have been in the past before jumping on. Yeah, you might get a little short term cash, but is that amount worth 2 trades (one to get in and one to get out). Now if this player goes on an extended tear and other owners start to pile on, then hey, the answer is easy. If it really is a career day (the 3rd game of a 3 game set in COL where the regular is resting, and joe scrub gets 2 thin air jacks, raising his career total to 4 in 5 years of spot duty) and he returns to his normal numbers, then the answer is also easy. The tough part is how the majic eight ball reacts when you ask it which will it be.
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| | | 15 | Mike D
Donor
ID: 37222147
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 07:17
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newbie (post 10)----don't totally avoid heavily drafted players, as some will do very well point wise and attract buyers. Understanding the risk does not necessarily mean avoiding taking the chance. You could miss a diamond in the rough.
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| | | 16 | Rogue's Strikers
ID: 36220226
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 07:49
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Agreed. Josh Beckett will probably be heavily drafted, and while a bad start or two could create a massive dropoff, he's more likely to do well (for his price range anyway) and result in buys. Also, since pitcher prices will be influenced over 5 days, it won't matter as much if a heavily drafted pitcher starts very poorly. In the past you'd have to worry about trading him right away. Now, you'll likely have a few days.
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| | | 17 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 08:41
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Rogue[16] - don't be so sure about that. The only benefit of the 5-day pitcher change is that buys and sells can offset over a cycle. But if a pitcher is heavily drafted and then bombs, there won't be many pre-start buys to offset the inevitable post-start sells. It is even possible that the ensuing price decline could be worse than in previous years, since you'll get the impact of those immediate sells for 5 days - perhaps without much buying activity at all. We won't really know until we've had a few chances to live through it, as there are a lot of influencing factors, including the general price sensivity, which is totally unknown at this stage of the game.
newbie - excellent set of questions. If I had decided to establish a fake ID and pose as a newbie with lots of good questions to prompt discussion, I couldn't have done better. (I didn't, BTW.) In fact, I'm amazed at the understanding that you already seem to have grasped. Keep those questions coming, because they lead to the kind of discussions that a lot of forum users are hungry for.
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| | | 18 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 08:45
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newbie - if you don't mind telling me, ... how did you find this site?
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| | | 19 | newbie
ID: 12392015
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 09:56
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Guru, I don't mind telling you how I found this site at all. I e-mailed some of these same questions to who I thought was the commissioner of the league over at TSN. After I sent the message, I realized that I'd accidentally mailed it to Erik Barmack, the general manager of The Sporting News. With some amount of embarrassment, I mailed him back and asked him to disregard my message as I was sure he had better things to do than give out fantasy baseball tips.
To my surprise, Mr. Barmack sent me an e-mail the next morning. He actually answered my question and then told me that I should check out this site because it was full of information and people that would be able to help me with any other questions I had. I was pretty impressed that he actually took the time to do that.
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| | | 20 | walk
Leader
ID: 14154112
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 09:57
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Wow, the veterans come out to help the newbie, and give this veteran some good reminders as to how to play this game. I think you are well-prepared now, newbie.
Excellent thread.
- walk
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| | | 21 | Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 3711402623
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 10:02
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Agreed, excellent thread.
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| | | 22 | newbie
ID: 12392015
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 10:10
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RSF, in regards to post 14, I was thinking more along the lines of a guy who has a monster game. Maybe somebody cheap who was just kind of piddling along in the early part of the season (nothing great but nothing too bad either) and then busts out with a 3HR, 12 RBI day that leaves a bunch of owners thinking they need to get this cheap player on their roster quick.
But I see what you mean about the 2 trades I might have to spend if it was truly just a career day and not an omen of things to come.
One more quick one regarding post 15 - I don't know if you meant to pose it this way, but you said if I sell him immediately after the final out then I will avoid the salary hit. Does it really matter whether I wait until he's pitched that day to sell him? I'm under the impression that whoever is on my roster at noon is who I will get points for that entire day and night. So does it matter one bit whether I trade a player at 12:15pm on the day he pitches, or at 11:45am on the morning after? Either way I get the points from his game the night of the afternoon that I owned him, right? Sorry if that wording is confusing.
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| | | 23 | Ender
ID: 52438315
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 10:23
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You are correct. If he's on your roster at noon, you get points that day. If you sell him any time between freeze and noon the next day you get the points and avoid any price change.
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| | | 24 | Gary
ID: 322111717
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 10:24
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To help you there will be info on the baseball standings board that may help you filter through some data that can help you throughout the season. Examples
The Standings Thread
And Movers and Shakers Thread To name a few so don't be afraid to explore and ask questions as needed. Good luck newbie
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| | | 25 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 10:29
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To avoid a loss, just sell before the next freeze.
Most "expert" players wait until the morning to do their trades, assuming they have internet access in the mornings. This gives you the full benefit of the previous day's information. You may find that someone else got injured, and you have more pressing needs to attend to.
The caveat is that it is risky to wait until 11:45am to do your trades. If server problems (traffic congestion, or hardware problems, etc.) occur, you can get stuck. I generally try to get my morning trades done no later than the 10:00-11:00 time frame. Some managers aim for a bit earlier than that.
Along that same theme, do not wait until the last minute to complete your draft. It is very common for server congestion to create significant problems. You are better off to get your roster drafted early (before Saturday), and then make last minute adjustments if you need to (and can).
Of course, with only one game on opening day, if you don't plan to have any Cleveland or Anaheim players, then you really don't need a roster until Monday. Some will even wait until Tuesday, preferring to concede a game day in order to get a jump on any opening day breakout performances. This can give a boost in early roster value generation, and is a strategy that some have sucessfully employed in the past.
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| | | 26 | newbie
ID: 12392015
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 10:49
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Interesting idea about waiting until Tuesday to draft, Guru. Are the salaries going to be *that* volatile so early? Will many owners actually trade out of a drafted player, and into another based soley on an opening day performance? It seems crazy, but I guess if you take into account that other owners are going to be doing just that, then you almost HAVE to do it as well to get on that money train. It's not the way I want to run my team. I'd prefer to pick a lineup and stick with it for at least a week or so, having confidence in my initial selections and patience to wait out any early slumps. But if the nature of the game is to jump out of players whenever they have a bad day or two, and jump into them when they have a great day or two, I guess I'll have to go with the flow.
I think I'll try the late draft approach with one of my teams. What do you think about just drafting #2 and #3 pitchers initially, with the expectation being that the masses will rotate into those pitchers after their #1's pitch on opening day? Would that be a decent strategy to persue, in order to save the trades you would have to make to rotate into those elite #2's and 3's yourself?
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| | | 27 | ChicagoTRS
Sustainer
ID: 6381316
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 10:51
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newbie...some more info that may help. Use your trades wisely! You will not be able to jump on every attractive player that comes along...it is rarely worth jumping on a hitter for a a day or two of gains. Always try to think a week or two ahead...what is the hitters upcoming schedule? is he facing RJ and Schilling in a day or two...or is he headed to Colorado for a series? Do you have enough money to trade player for player? sometimes it is a good idea to skip trading for a player if you have to make more than one move to get money to afford the player.
I think it is always a good strategy to have 2-3 or more trades in the bank for unexpected occurrences...injuries. Nothing worse than having a widely owned money earner go down to injury and being without a trade to get out of him. Or having 3 or more "money trains" (players going up in price...becoming widely owned) all get cold at once and not having enough trades to trade out. Sometimes it is ok to hold a player losing money if you still think he is a solid point producer and a value for his price...the same people who trade out of a player will likely come back as will the price if the player continues to get good points.
An important tool is the TSN points per game/total points listings. Many of the normal players use these tools to make decisions on their picks. A good way to figure out what the average player (sometimes referred to as "lemming" on these boards) is thinking. If you see a player towards the top of the positional points per game who is at like 2 million surrounded by 4million+ players good chance that player will soon be going up in price.
Another good strategy is to find a few solid players for a few of your hitter positions that have little price movement. A player that might not make a lot of money but will also not lose money and will give you solid points. It becomes a position where you don't have to waste trades and you can just plug the same player there for weeks/months. It is popular to lock up your catcher since they are traditionally a low scoring position and there is an entire element of player that chases cheapy catcher after cheapy catcher...will burn through your trades and give you little value for doing it. Unless of course someone like LoDuca last year comes along. Maybe in your outfield have two money earner spots and two spots where you plug solid players. etc...
Read some of the threads on pitching trade strategies. I think pitching management really seperates the big boys from the rest of the pack. Learn to use pitcher trades "efficiently" understand a "guru rotation" and how to get the most value from each pitcher trade. Pitching strategy is a little up in the air right now because of the new pricing algorithm. Someone mentioned two pitcher start weeks...IMO a bad strategy you really do not need to think about this game in weeks.
I was a newbie to this game last year and finished in the top 100 in both the full season and mid season games (mostly thanks to this board). Make sure you bookmark this site it will be invaluable and look for ways to make contributions to the board so others can value.
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| | | 28 | newbie
ID: 12392015
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 10:52
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Is should clarify that in regards to the #2's and 3's, I'm talking about doing that on a team that I draft before the season begins, not on the one that I wait until Tuesday for. It wouldn't make any sense to draft a #1 starter anyway if I'm waiting until Tuesday to draft.
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| | | 29 | newbie
ID: 12392015
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 11:04
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Good stuff ChicagoTRS (27). I find it funny that you need to decipher where all the lemmings are headed...in order to become one of the lemmings yourself! It's kind of ironic at least.
There's one thing I'm having a little trouble grasping about the Guru rotation. Do I want to save up my trades early and just sit on my drafted pitchers if possible, in order to buid a large enough stash that I can rotate on a daily basis through the end of season. Or does that even matter? Do you just start doing it until you exhaust your trades for the week, then pick it up again for a few days once you get replinished with trades. Do you see what I'm saying? With only three trades a week, you obviously can't rotate pitchers every day of the week. You're only going to be able to do it for a few days and then you have to wait for reinforcements. It's either that or save all your trades early. I get the feeling that it's inteded to work the other way. Just start rotating and when you run out of trades, you wait for the reinforcements and pick up the rotation again. Since everybody gets the same amount of trades in a season, I suppose it really doesn't matter so much when you use them. Is this right?
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| | | 30 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 11:18
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It doesn't matter when you use pitching trades, and a lot of people try to conserve pitching trades so they can string them together in the right situation later in the year. Earlier in the season, you probably want to keep your eye on pitcher price management - at least as much as point management. Although the new pricing method will dampen the rotation-driven price cycle, there will still be price gain opportunities as guys come out of nowhere to post good numbers early on. Remember Scott Schoeneweis 2 years ago? Or Wade Miller last year? Or Mark Buehrle? You need to find them early, if you aren't clairvoyant enough to have drafted them. Of course, at the same time, you need to be able to distinguish them from the flash-in-the-pan overachievers. That's not always an easy call, but it is probably among the most important early decisions to make.
Regarding the guru rotation. I used a 5-day cycle to illustrate the concept, and I think that makes it easier to compare to alternative approaches. But in general, you'll get the same efficiency from any trading strategy which drops a pitcher immediately after a start in order to buy a pitcher who starts the next day. You don't need to start and end with the same pitcher in order to get the start/trade efficiency. I very seldom find a 5-day cycle that I want to rotate through.
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| | | 31 | NY Sports Teams
ID: 385248
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 11:22
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newbie...in reference to post 22. If you trade
a pitcher at 12:15 and the game gets rained out,
you loose the points when he pitches the next day.
Just my second year, but learn by mistakes.
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| | | 32 | newbie
ID: 12392015
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 11:34
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Thanks Guru. So using this method, you just want to rotate through one of the pitching spots, right? You pretty much leave the other four pitchers alone, barring injury or a string of bad performances? So would it be to my advantage to have some undervalued guys in those other 4 spots, or maybe a closer or two in order to get a solid return on my investment at the positions? Maybe some sleepers who I think will turn into money trains? Or just 4 solid, dependable starters that I can count on to not lose money and still provide me with points every time out? Either way, I'm going to leave those other 4 spots alone once I draft them, unless and until they become a liability, right?
Just tell me if the questions I'm asking are addressed in other posts and/or articles. I don't want to waste anybody's time asking questions that they've already answered several times. I've read your article about the rotation strategy and Madman's post about pitching strategies. I still have these questions, though. Maybe I'm just being dense. In which case you can feel free to tell me that as well!
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| | | 33 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 11:47
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Not necessary to use one slot for rotation. If you have enough roster value do it (which probably won't be the case for a few months), using 2 or 3 slots for occasional rotation opportunities gives much more flexibility.
For example, in Slot 1, move from Pedro to Randy, and then hold Randy. Use Slot 2 to rotate back into Pedro later in the week, selling someone who pitches the day before him. There are all sorts of alternatives. I used this type of approach very successfully last year in the midseason game, ultimately placing 3rd overall. Never did a straight 5-day rotation cycle, but always managed pitching trades with point efficiency in mind.
Early in the year, I prefer to conserve pitching trades to be used more opportunistically than pure point-driven rotations. There will be plenty of chances to use a trade for rotation purposes later in the year, and these can usually be more effectively used when you have a bigger roster value. Early in the year, use them to bail out of disappointments or injury problems, and use them to pick up the next phenom. If you have some excess trades early on, build up a reserve. They'll always be convertible into points later in the season. But there's nothing worse than being tradeless when a popular player gets injured.
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| | | 34 | newbie
ID: 12392015
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 11:48
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That's a good point NY Sports Teams. Which brings me to another question (surprise!). How much do I need to pay attention to weather reports? I realize that it is of some importance, but how much really? For instance, if I have a pitcher who gets rained out one day, he's still most likely going to pitch the next day out. So how much did it really cost me? As long as I keep him until he throws his next game, did I really lose anything? They only way I can figure that I lost out was if I were planning to rotate in another pitcher the next day in his spot, then I miss that pitchers points the next night. In which case, I just postpone my rotation for a day (which will probably lead me to alter the pitchers I was planning to use that week), but I also save the trade that I was going to use on that spot for a day. And I replace the points I lost from the guy I planned to rotate in the second day with the points from the pitcher that I rotate in the 3rd day (after my #1 pitches). So is it really that big a deal if the pitcher in your #1 slot, the one you're using for rotation purposes, gets rained out and doesn't pitch until the next day? It seems to me all I lose is the marginal difference in points between my 2nd and 3rd pitchers in the rotation, since the #2 guy got skipped. Does this make sense?
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| | | 35 | NY Sports Teams
ID: 385248
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 12:44
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I do not pay too much attention to weather reports. Too much other information much more
important. Price should not vary a great deal. Your pitcher may increase in price more the next
day if people did not have enought trades to pick him up and they got trades that day. Also, at the start of the season you cannot afford Pedro and Randy on your team at the same time. If they were scheduled to pitch the same day and say Randy got rained out, Pedro owners would probably pick up Randy the next day.
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| | | 36 | Lutefisker
Sustainer
ID: 12259720
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 13:06
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I think the most important thing to remember is that the person with the most points wins at the end of the season.
Hope this Helps!!! :)
sign me
Lutefisker the Prognosticator
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| | | 37 | Erik B.
ID: 239592612
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 13:30
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I just want to add my two cents on this:
It is a thing of beauty to watch people politely exchange information on our games. I especially appreciate diehard Gurupies being so responsive to someone who is clearly interested in competing.
So thanks ... Reading a thread like this makes my job worthwhile.
-ESB
GM/TSN
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| | | 38 | newbie
ID: 12392015
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 14:03
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Ah, there's the guy that turned me on to this site. I had no idea that you read and posted here too, Erik B. So I guess my initial assumption was wrong. Maybe you don't have more inportant things to do than give out fantasy baseball tips!
I'm just joking, of course. ;) Thanks again. This place is great.
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| | | 39 | ChicagoTRS
Sustainer
ID: 6381316
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 14:40
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newbie...sometimes it is wise to follow the lemmings sometimes not. There are more opportunities for moves than trades so the difference is taking the right opportunities. But you are right following the lemmings/masses is very necessary in making money. The important thing is doing it smarter than others or the masses and choosing the best opportunities and avoiding the traps.
An interesting thing about this game is the strategies change throughout the year. At first it is mainly about building roster value and then slowly you should move to a strategy that maximizes points. It is important to remember in the end this game is about who has the most points...not the most money. But then again more money can lead to more points because you can afford better players...kind of a balancing act. I remember someone on this board last year had a roster value like 20% lower than almost everyone in the top 100 but he was still constantly in the top 20 in the world for most of the season. So depending on what kind of player you are almost any strategy can work...he maximized points and made it work very well.
Pitching rotation efficiency is an important concept to grasp. Read/search for the threads started by madman. In a nutshell...pitcher trade efficiency is about saving trades so you can use extended rotations and get more starts per trade used. You said "Since everybody gets the same amount of trades in a season, I suppose it really doesn't matter so much when you use them. Is this right?" This is not right. By using pitcher trades efficiently...usually accomplished by picking up a pitcher the day he pitches and then trading to another pitcher for the next day etc...you actually get more pitching starts through the season. You are right you need to save trades for awhile and then you can go on a rotation. Read the pitching threads for a thorough explanation. You shouldn't force yourself to find a pitcher going a certain day if no good pitchers are pitching...you might pick up a pitcher going in two days if it is a better matchup. Pitching rotations are also about picking the best matchup.
Especially later in the season sometimes I think it is best to do your own research and make your own moves and not follow the crowd all of the time. These are the times you can really make some positive impacts on your WWRs (world wide ranking) when you do what noone else is doing. Of course if your strategy backfires it can have the opposite effect. Example...RJ is going to Coors for a start...many people will still take RJ even when he is pitching in Colorado. IMO this is a good time to avoid RJ and choose a different starter...I made some ground on the field last year when RJ/Schill were headed to a series in Colorado...a lot of people held then through the series...neither had good games...I picked two alternate pitchers who both had decent games and I picked up a few hundred WWR spots to move into the top 100 for the first time all year and then basically stayed there the rest of the year. You probably do not want to do this very often but when you spot the best opportunities it can really be a boost.
Make sure you enter your team data in the standings thread. Most of the people on this board are tracked here...roster value, trades in the bank, points, WWRs, etc... are all tracked daily. They also post a list of which players are owned and by how many people. Good way to figure out who the most popular players are...
BTW...I would choose a different name besides "newbie" because after reading this thread I think you are probably no longer a newbie.
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| | | 40 | newbie
ID: 12392015
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 15:19
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Thanks ChiTRS. I agree about the name change, too. When I first posted, I didn't anticipate this much of a response, and I didn't anticipate being here long. The more I look around, the more I get the feeling I'll be here all year. (I'll look into that donor thing, too). So you're right - "newbie" just isn't going to cut it. From now on, I shall be known here as "Jello Biafra".
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| | | 41 | James K Polk
ID: 4455731
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 15:25
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Yikes! That's a loaded handle :)
Welcome, Jello.
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| | | 42 | Mark L
Leader
ID: 4444938
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 15:25
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Alright! A Dead Kennedys reference!
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| | | 43 | rockafellerskank
Sustainer
ID: 432451418
Fri, Mar 22, 2002, 15:26
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Really, this thread is an excellent way to introduce new Gurupies to the forum.
newbie posted an introduction, made a few points and tossed out a premesis to kick around and ...what do you know.... many helpful Gurupies chipped in to answer a request for assistance!
This is in sharp contrast to the recent rash of "evaluate my yahoo roster" posts!
newbie, Welcome. I can't add much to the well informed posters above, but would offer advice about the forum. Explore its various tools in the drop down boxes and lurk around to get to know the personalities of the posters. There's a lot of years of fantasy experience on the board to help. After a short period of time you will quickly learn who has valuable advice and who is full of hot air.
Good Luck,
rfs ®
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| | | 44 | Perm Dude
Leader
ID: 02592222
Tue, Mar 26, 2002, 00:21
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BUTT
I can't believe this got to the second page already. Lots of new threads.
To Joe from Boston: Read through this thread. It'll give you some of the starting and overall strategy ideas in one place. Good luck!
pd
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| | | 45 | cancermoon
ID: 53248219
Tue, Mar 26, 2002, 03:22
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Just a general baseball question now about pitching, ChicagoTRS made a comment in his message about not taking Randy or Curt when they were pitching at Coors field, and he ended up making a good gain when most others did take them still.
Ok this confuses me a little, because the reason it is bad to pitch at Coors is the light air and therefore balls fly further when hit. "When hit" is the main point there, In a normal Randy or Curt innings how many hits do players usually actually get? So If they just pitched a normal innings how much chance would the Coors affect have to affect their pitching stats? I think maybe ChicagoTRS got lucky, but used very faulty reasoning in doing it, but then again maybe i am wrong, because I admittedly have no idea and would love it if others could sort this out for me.
thanks.
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| | | 46 | Puckprophet
ID: 27948520
Tue, Mar 26, 2002, 09:29
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already thread of the year ! well done ...
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| | | 47 | Ender
ID: 13443221
Tue, Mar 26, 2002, 09:35
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Surely you would agree that if they get hit it will be worse than normal? ERA's in Coors are higher no matter who you are (maybe there is a handful of pitchers who have lower ERA's but I challenge you to find them). Even Randy and Curt give up some hits. Those hits are more probable to leave the ballpark there. Also, it's not like Colorado sports a pathetic lineup. You could argue that Helton and Walker are just as hard to get out as RJ and Schill are to hit.
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| | | 48 | Catfish
Sustainer
ID: 9657107
Tue, Mar 26, 2002, 09:43
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One more tip, newbie/Jello: as Guru noted, smart managers make trades in the morning -- late enough to get updates on any injuries; early enough to avoid server overloads.
The corollary is: avoid making trades at 2 a.m. after you've had a bunch of beer (or equivalent caffeinated beverage). Your happy fingers will wreak all kinds of havoc on your carefully selected team. The next morning you're stumbling around muttering to the dog, "How did Jeffrey Hammonds get on my A team?"
This is a great thread.
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| | | 49 | Slow Stick
Sustainer
ID: 582522610
Tue, Mar 26, 2002, 11:08
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Cancermoon:
Another and probably greater effect of the thin air is that pitchers (even fast ball pitchers) depends upon movement of the ball to make the hitters miss. the less friction means less movement and therefor more hits. more base runners, etc.
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| | | 50 | TSNMemServices
ID: 135341411
Tue, Mar 26, 2002, 14:52
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Here is something to keep in mind, team that are created AFTER the season starts have profound effect on price movement. The 'buys' by new teams are figured into price changes.
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| | | 51 | quik_ag
ID: 368423022
Tue, Mar 26, 2002, 15:01
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i believe that 'buys' by new teams aren't considered 'buys' when the pricing is computed. I may be wrong, but i believe I read that somewhere sometime.
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| | | 52 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 26, 2002, 15:13
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These "late entries" have a pronounced impact on prices in the free game, as there are new teams starting all the time.
Historically, that has not been the case for pay games. While there are certainly some late starters, I've never seen much of an influence in repricing. In fact, that has been source of a significant difference in the relative price trends of the two games. Cheap players tend to keep rising and rising in the free games. But they usually plateau fairly quickly in the pay games.
Want some examples? Check out Pau Gasol in the current Hoops games. He was initially priced at $3m. In the free game, he continually gained value until mid-February, peaking at $6,290K. In the pay game, after a November surge, he leveled off around $4m, and has been cycling up and down ever since, peaking ocasionally in the $4.3m range.
Albert Pujols was a similar example in baseball last year. [The left-most price column is for the free game, and the "Hardball" (green) column is the pay game.] The distinction is not as dramatic as for Gasol, but he did appreciate faster and longer in the free game, and I attribute most of this difference to the creation of new teams in the free game.
Anti-gravity has been suggested as a means to overcome the price leveling when a player's saturation level is high. I don't know whether TSN plans to introduce that feature this year or not.
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| | | 53 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 26, 2002, 15:15
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quik_ag: preseason buys are not included in repricing. But once the season begins, all buys are treated the same, regardless of whether they are for new teams or for trades.
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| | | 54 | Ender
ID: 13443221
Tue, Mar 26, 2002, 15:25
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It takes balls to directly contradict TSNMemServices, quick_ag ;)
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| | | 55 | JeffG
Sustainer
ID: 40451227
Tue, Mar 26, 2002, 17:41
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All: Great advise above. Even someone like me who has played this game 4 seasons now benefits from the review given above.
Newbie: Welcome. I do not think anyone has mentioned this yet, but in addition to these message forum boards, there are some excellent tools on this web site that Guru has put together. You can get to them from the drop down selection window on the top and bottom right of this thread labeled Other Baseball Pages.
The sortable stats (known to gurupies as sartibles) is a great tool to help evaluate and compare players both when you are drafting and when making trades. Player lookups is another way to look at price movement and point production for specific players. Yesterday's points gives you a quick reference to how the whole league did individually the day before. There is a schedule generator to help you compare which teams have off days, or stretches in hitter friendly ballparks.
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| | | 57 | ChicagoTRS
Sustainer
ID: 6381316
Wed, Mar 27, 2002, 09:57
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cancermoon...I think every pitcher pitches worse at Coors for many reasons. There is less movement on the pitched ball, the ball obviously flys farther when hit, the outfields are spacious resulting in more non-homerun hits, Colorado does have a decent lineup. I am not saying it was not a risk skipping Randy Johnson because if anyone can overcome Coors it is probably Randy but I think if you are going to try and differentiate this was a perfect opportunity. Differentiating inherently has some risk because you are going against what the masses think. It is not a strategy to employ all of the time but if you pick and choose your opportunities well it can be very rewarding.
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| | | 58 | TSNMemServices
ID: 135341411
Wed, Mar 27, 2002, 13:24
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Newbie, if you ever have any trouble with the game why not write the guys who work there at ultimatebaseball@sportingnews.com
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