Forum: base
Page 14627
Subject: I'm dunny with Runny - A dear John Letter

  Posted by: The Pink Pimp - [59346179] Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 00:20
Dear Runny,

Thank you Runny for all the points and cash that you
have brought me in the early season. You were my first
draft pick on all of my day late teams and rewarded me
beyond my wildest expectations.

But you were a comet that burned too bright, a flame
whose brilliance drew the attention of thousands of
lemming moths that carried you to unimagined heights
but who now drag you down with the combined weight
of their fickle roster moves. Alas, the best you can do
now is to hold even in value and the most likely path for
you to follow is downward.

You could score 140 points tommorow and I'd still leave
you. But this does not mean that you are a bad man
Runny or that it is your fault. You see the fault is all
mine, for I am a lemming moth myself and am drawn to
the emerging flames I see on mounds across the land
even as your adoring thousands were drawn to you.

I must leave you soon for another flame Runny, one
who I know will not do for me what you have done but I
cannot help myself for I must alight upon them and
hope that I have chosen well.

In time, the fickle wings of your flock will lead them to do
the same and you shall drop deeply in value, but do not
fear that you will hit the ground! For when the time is
right I will return to you and we will try to recapture the
magic that has been with us this young spring.

Until then Runny, take comfort in knowing that you were
my first pick, and that I will always remember our April
together.

Let the Good Times Roll,

The Pink Pimp

 
1J
      Leader
      ID: 49346417
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 00:22 		hmmmm, you know what this board needs...a Mimi :)
 
2The Left Wings
      ID: 6142019
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 00:41 		And I'm not going to say what you probably think I'm thinking, which I really am thinking.

It's obvious that the train is over when the market is saturated.
 
3RecycledSpinalFluid
      ID: 211013916
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 00:47 		I think I'm thinking what you are thinking, and it IS.
 
4holt
      ID: 26328618
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 04:13 		Very funny stuff - good writing. Right on the money too. As much as I hate lemmings, it's the only way to go in a market-based game. Buy low, sell high - as basic as it gets.
 
5scotte9
      ID: 543591011
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 08:53 		Good stuff. Very nice writing.
 
6ukula
      Donor
      ID: 7329227
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 09:31 		Hype
 
7walk
      Leader
      ID: 4112711
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 09:31 		Excellent post, PP, and excellent analysis, written in a very humorous way.

So, to be sure, you're talking about moving Runny AFTER he pitches tomorrow, right?

DOH!

- walk
 
8Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 10:05 		Runny has appreciated about $2 million since opening day. Based on previous years, that's about as much as he can appreciate in a closed game. In the Basic game, he could easily continue his upward climb, as long as he keeps pitching well.

One of two things will eventually start the "run" on Runny:
1. A bad outing. There will be no built-in cushion from the 5-day repricing. His ownership over the past 5 days is already pretty level, so sells will start to cause immediate depreciation.

2. A price leak. Once his price begins to dip, managers will start to bail. Even if a bad outing doesn't precipitate the decline, a pattern of price losses probably will. In this case, the 5-day lag works against him, as losses will be sustained and mounting.

It won't help that pitcher trades are handed out this afternoon. Every team will have the ability to sell a pitcher, and since he will pitch today, that already bodes poorly.

 
9bookie
      ID: 1859247
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 10:07 		I agree with the theory, but don't know that the trade must come after today's start.. Last 5 days ownership (excluding today)

6) 63.9 (started that day) 46 points
5) 61.14 (got PT's after the freeze)
4) 59.43
3) 59.81
2) 60.48
1) 61.05 (yesterday)

If he puts up another 100 point outing he will stay close to the top of all pitchers in points through his next start (will likely be on top in the morning) and may only see slight decreases in dollars, but then pick it back up again before around his next start.

However with PT's refreshing today, if he puts up another mediocre number, I agree with the pimp, it's time for the comet to burn into the orbital pull of the earth....
 
10Chuck
      Donor
      ID: 550322311
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 10:08 		For when the time is right I will return to you and we will try to recapture the magic that has been with us this young spring.

::wipes tear from his eye::

---------

RANT:

Seriously, a great post. It seems nowadays that mentioning any player automatically = "hype" to some people in here, even if analysis is accompanied by it.

To those who think think this post is hype, I don't know what to say. I guess stop reading posts by such "hypers." Realize by doing this, you are missing some of the most thought-out analysis of any players of this game.

If you disagree with the post, share reasons as to why your opinion is the opposite. Stating "hype" is no better than any post you are criticizing, as you point out a supposed flaw, but do nothing to take care of it yourself.

Thanks to every poster who actually takes time to think out what s/he is going to say before just writing random words.

---------

I fully agree on Elvis. My plan is for him to go post freeze today, anyway, as I am heading out of town and, even if the market weren't saturated, I would bail for fear of losing $1 million +.

Another thought to consider, too, is MacD. He also is up big, $1.7 million to be exact. I am also bailing out of him post freeze as I am not willing to risk that much cash, which a bad outing or a many DNP's could result in.

Anyway, thanks again Pimp for your thought out posts and insight. It makes the game more enjoyable.
 
11ukula
      Donor
      ID: 7329227
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 10:17 		Chuck - where is the analysis that you talk about in the beginning of the thread? All he says is that he is going to dump the guy, no analysis, no thought provoking theories, just a bunch of flowery prose. If this was written by Joe Newbie you guys would rip him a new one and tell him to brush up on the rules of the message boards. I personally couldn't care less about 'player hype' threads, but you guys are a bunch of hypocrites if you praise PP for posting this stuff. The Good Old Boy Gurupie Network at work again.
 
12Dave R
      Leader
      ID: 12441623
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 12:05 		+20 today
 
13Chuck
      Donor
      ID: 571132017
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 12:34 		Player: Elvis Hernandez

I'm dunny with Runny


Benefits to owning player so far:

Thank you Runny for all the points and cash that you have brought me in the early season. You were my first draft pick on all of my day late teams and rewarded me beyond my wildest expectations.


Current danger with Elvis:

But you were a comet that burned too bright, a flame whose brilliance drew the attention of thousands of lemming moths that carried you to unimagined heights but who now drag you down with the combined weight of their fickle roster moves.


Analysis: Runny has nowhere to go but down. This could be started 1 of 2 ways. See post #8.

Reaction:

I must leave you soon for another flame Runny


Danger to the move:

...one
who I know will not do for me what you have done but I cannot help myself for I must alight upon them and hope that I have chosen well.


I can't believe I typed all that up. I feel like I'm back in English class again. Clearly, there is a lot of opinion there, but the opinion is based on the fact of prior history. It may not be all set out for you-- you may have to work for it, but it's there.

In addition, the purpose of most threads is to create discussion and bring out more insights from other people.

I will quote myself from before:


If you disagree with the post, share reasons as to why your opinion is the opposite. Stating "hype" is no better than any post you are criticizing, as you point out a supposed flaw, but do nothing to take care of it yourself.


You have still failed to contribute to the thread, presumably b/c you've already declared it hype in your own mind. You are merely taking the thread off course. Anyway, I will stop with the thread hi-jack as well, so that it can get back on topic, and will let any future disagreement here go.
_____________________

Honestly, I don't know if Runny will go down with a huge game, or at least not much. I think the bubble is fine as long as he puts up 130-140+ a night. However, that is very difficult to do, and be sure the Twins are a bit ticked off from the sweep by the Yankees. I wouldn't bail blindly, but I would be ready to go on any hint of a sell-- if you are looking to keep the $$ you earned. If you aren't worried as much about $$, than a hold could be good if you think his point production will stay up. I personally don't think that, either, but to each his/her own.
 
14Matt G
      ID: 43047610
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 12:49 		The Good Old Boy Gurupie Network at work again

I can just see Waylon Jennings Being Signed for the Album and first single of The Good Old Boy Gurupie Network CD...Would be a great sound track for Gurupies to listen to when making trades...

I think we(The Good Old Boy Gurupie Network) Should get arm bands and patches and Visors and Jerseys and Such, PP yours can be Pink if you desire it to be....

Ukula, have some fun...Please. Thanks
 
15Matt G
      ID: 43047610
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 13:07 		Speaking of which, this was just released.

Just the Gurpie Boys
Always tradin’ too hard
Beats all that are funnny
Been in trouble with Runny
Since spring training begun

Buyin em low
Selling em high
Someday the c-loser might get em
Cause lemmings always die

Makin' their way
To the Top somehow
Knowing much much more
Than TSN will allow.

Makin' their way
To the Top somehow
Knowing much much more
Than TSN will allow

I'm a Gurupie boy
Know my team needs Money
But TSN don’t understand
They keep dropping prices and
Won't let me keep Runny
 
16Matt G
      ID: 43047610
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 13:17 		And yes I know Waylon Jennings is Deceased, Bless his soul...
 
17Perm Dude
      Leader
      ID: 0059248
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 13:39 		He's not deceased, so long as there is Jack Daniels to drink...
 
18walk
      Leader
      ID: 4112711
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 13:42 		ukula, the anger, the resentment, the emotion! We shall own you too one day and buy and sell you based on pink pimpian analysis.

- walk
 
19Catfish
      Sustainer
      ID: 35262811
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 14:33 		Runelvys is pitching against Kenny Rogers, not Waylon.
 
20biliruben
      Sustainer
      ID: 49132614
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 14:40 		LOL!
 
21Catfish
      Sustainer
      ID: 35262811
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 14:55 		Look out Runelvys, Kenny's calling you ...

"Now it's suppertime and his momma calls,
little boy starts home with his bat and ball.
Says, "I am the greatest, that is a fact,
But even I didn't know I could pitch like that!"
Says, "I am the greatest, that is understood,
But even I didn't know I could pitch that good!"

Disclaimer: these lyrics were cut & paste without permission


 
22Catfish
      Sustainer
      ID: 35262811
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 14:55 		Ooops sorry no analysis.
 
23The Pink Pimp
      ID: 91127165
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 15:00 		Chuck,
I'll bet you did well in English class. Just a hunch of mine as I have no sampling program for your grades.

Bookie,
I think you're correct that Runny could hold his value with a great start today. But I want money from this slot in my roster and Runny isn't going to get that for me. I'll be moving to someone who has yet to emerge on the "Lemdar" in hopes that he will soon appreciate in price.

J,
Nice semi obscure Drew Carey reference.

Matt G,
Sweet tune there, made me laugh out loud and download the MP3 so I could sing along.

Guru,
As usual you say clearly in a few lines what it takes me several paragraphs to convey in a roundabout way. The fact that Runny has no buys in his 5 day pattern to cushion him against sells was a particularly salient point. That simple truth alone may in fact cause the price leak to occur.

Walk,
Yup I'm selling him post start today.

Ukula,
I couldn't have asked for a better straight man, Thanks.
 
24Matt G
      ID: 43047610
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 15:30 		Kenny Rogers is pitching against Runny, whom this thread is about and in fact, my song was inspired by...

It's a well known fact that Kenny Rogers hated Waylon Jennings(humor me) who wrote the original of my song, Gurupie Boys Not to mention the fact that Hernandez has been referred to as, Elvis as well. Jeez I feel like Carson Daly on TRL

I think tonight we could see some fireworks, or maybe even...a tie... Will Selig be at the game or is the restraining order the twins have on him still in affect??? All in all I hope one of the two teams win, particularly the home or visiting team, but being a twins fan, I'm not biased.

;-)
 
25J
      Leader
      ID: 49346417
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 15:38 		speaking of ties, Bud Selig is temporarily off the hook in my eyes.

No. 2 Florida State (36-6-1) and No. 11 Miami (28-9-1) played to a 7-7 tie at Mark Light Field Sunday afternoon in 10 innings of play. Due to FSU's flight time back to Tallahassee, no inning could start after 4:30 p.m.

Ughhhh, damn impatient pilots!
 
26Matt G
      ID: 43047610
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 15:43 		I hear Selig was there....

Those Pilots were in a hurry to get back to MTV Srring Break in Tallahassee, I hear the chicks down there are into men in uniform...

Speaking of uniforms, which one(AS an adult) would you NOT want to be caught dead in, a Burger King Uniform or a Detroit Tigers Uniform... Be honest....


DISCLAIMER: I worked for BK when I was 17 which allows me to say whatever the hell I want to about them, Besides BK Employees of all people know how degrading it is to work there. I invented the Chicken Tenders Sandwich in 1997, Those royalties are still piling in.
 
27Perm Dude
      Leader
      ID: 0059248
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 15:47 		I won't ask how you got them soooo tender.

I am an Arby's alumnus myself. Mmmmm. Roast beef & cheddar. Americans really know how to pave the way to cardiovascular disease.

pd
 
28The Left Wings
      ID: 6142019
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 16:01 		Chuck #10:
I suppose you're right. By starting a thread specifically discussing about dropping or buying a player automatically makes it suspicious of player hyping. I've been catching people at that, and I've explained why I don't like such posts. I did have a feeling that I was being a pest, ruining other people's good will towards suggesting us to drop or buy a player.

I don't know. It's a really fine line between discussing a player's price potential and hyping. To me, any mention of buying and dropping based on a player's price movement constitutes hyping. I mean, anybody can see that.

But on the other hand, this place is for head-ups, so I suppose hyping should be allowed.

Noting that a player's price went down is one thing, telling me what to do based on what you're going to do is another. I don't like being forced on a bandwagon.

Then again, jumping on bandwagons is how you increase your roster value. It's really conflicting.
 
29Catfish
      Sustainer
      ID: 35262811
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 17:53 		Welcome to the game, dude. April is the month of the lemming and lemming-like behaviour. Good on yer, PP, for helping us think through the Runelvys thing.

As for tonight -- go Leafs!
 
30GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 60151121
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 22:35 		And I'm a McDonalds Alumni.

Sure thinking hard now about dumping Runny.
Guess I will sleep on it and decide in the morning.

Cliff
 
31deepsnapper
      Sustainer
      ID: 17103420
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 23:09 		KAFENATID.BASEBALL has Elvis with 96 TSNP win for KC in a 4-3 game with a 17 TSNP save for that McD guy.

Guess we'll see how many cash in tomorrow or wait until after Toronto.
 
32J
      Leader
      ID: 49346417
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 23:28 		as a Kenny Rogers Roasters alumn, I'm sure glad that guy didnt get the win tonight!

mmmmm, tastes like chicken!
 
33Richard
      Leader
      ID: 5410352713
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 23:36 		If and when we dump Elvys, are we going cheap or upgrading to a more expensive pitcher?

Shawn Chacon, currently 3rd of the pitcher points list with almost no ownership, looks great except for the little bothersome fact that he pitchers for the Colorado Rockies. I'm not sure if I'm ready to take that risk. Other than Shawn, I haven't found any lightly owned bargains under $3 million.

Richard
 
34Dave R
      Leader
      ID: 12441623
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 23:39 		I'm torn as to whether to hold or sell. Sure he's liable to take a price hit, maybe a big one soon. But where will you find production like his for the price.

I fully understand the economics of the game as well as anyone, but to sell at this point makes no sense with Toronto and Baltimore ( I believe upcoming )

Not alot of options to go to in my price range that I'm thrilled with, think I'll sleep on it
 
35TacoJohn
      ID: 1371521
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 23:41 		Even if this guy's price is going to drop isn't there something to be said for a guy at this price putting up numbers as good as anyone in baseball?

I mean, is it that you guys don't think he can keep it together or that you're really that worried about losing the cash?

If you have to spend an extra $2 million to get a pitcher that can put up those same numbers then it's really no different than losing $2 million of RV on Runny. Correct?
 
36The Pink Pimp
      ID: 91127165
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 23:48 		Richard,

Esteban Loaiza is still relatively unowned if you consider the 50% ownership level as a ceiling. That gives him the potential to gain 30% in ownership share. His performance today will not hurt him either.

Jeff Suppan is another option if you believe in the Pirates ability to keep winning.

If you look a little higher in price, say $4.5 million or so, a few more pop out.

 
37Ender
      ID: 13443221
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 23:52 		It's a lot different. If I upgrade to a $5 mill pitcher and get the production and my franchise value stays (or even gains depending on who I pick up). If I hold him, my franchise value decreases by 2 million. That's a big difference.

I don't think there's any doubt that he will fall starting tomorrow, even if it's only a little at a time. I'd say he loses at least 50K a day until his next start. The question becomes "Is his next start worth $200K?"Then a bigger problem arises as he won't be getting any more buys and his price will continue to fall. You may be willing to pay for the next start, but can you afford to pay for 2?

I think it will be intersting to see who loses more, MacDougal or Hernandez. We may need to move both. If you think it's only Hernandez then why does this phenomenon apply only to starters?
 
38TacoJohn
      ID: 1371521
      Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 23:57 		How is it really different?

Your available cash outside of that position is the same either way, is it not? Yes, you get an extra $2 mil RV but you're turning around and spending it to get the same production you would from Runny so it's not doing you any good.

The only exception to that I can see is if you think at some point Runny won't produce and you'll have to upgrade anyway.
 
39jedman
      Sustainer
      ID: 503141122
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 00:00 		I'm trying to figure out why we all think he needs to be sold? What is the logic, besides we are afraid of losing money? Doesn't giving him one more start make more sense, and if he has a good game, give him one more start after that? It's not like there are a lot of options out there that can give you that kind of production. I fortunately have had Loaiza for his last 3 starts and will ride him, but I'm having a hard time understanding why Elvis' performance warrants so many people jumping off. I would understand it more if he had a lousy game tonight, but he didn't. I understand the money aspect, but why is that starting right now. It almost seems like we are all going to make this a self-fulfilling prophecy.
 
40Ender
      ID: 13443221
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 00:06 		TJ, it's different because I get to keep the $2 mill for the balance of the season. I can come back to Hernandez after the $2 mill drop and have his production and not lose the $2 mill.
 
41blade
      ID: 243202221
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 00:08 		The paranoia of losing money is "Runnying" rampant in here. i can't see moving him at this time because i already own Loaiza and the production i am still getting from Elvys is very satisfactory for his price. i know people want to cash in on the money they've made already but as far as i'm concerned he's still producing and i am holding till he blows up.
 
42biliruben
      Sustainer
      ID: 49132614
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 00:10 		If you examine Padilla's gains and losses last year, you will notice he peaks out again a month or so later. If you had the cajones to hold him through the price drop, then you would have had a solid, cheap pitcher, and not lost any bucks. Those are some cajones, however. You have to truly believe he is quality, or else you better get out now. Otherwise you will panic $800,000 later, and sell for a loss.
 
43Bandos
      ID: 39112921
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 00:14 		This is a tough one. Ender is right in that eventually I will not have the likes of Runny or Loaiza on my team, especially when they go face the Red Sox, Yanks, Oak et al. Hell, I wouldn't keep anybody but Pedro for those kind of starts. So is it worth it to trade Runny to Loaiza tonight. If you have the trades and available cash its probably worth it to go Runny->Mulder-
>Zito ->Loaiza. Hudson pitching a 2 hitter against the mudhens tonight. oh, 2 infield hits.

The reality is that almost no one will sell Loaiza so he will gain 100K for at least 6 days, another solid outing and he will have 2 weeks of gains. It is very hard to pass up that much RV.

As far as starters vs. closers, both are subject to ownership downward pressure but in different ways I think. Starters, can see hits after they pitch which lead to more sells, i.e. panic. Closers can pitch anyday, thus only many DNP or bad outings will cause the first wave of sells. I think that closers can maintain a high roster ownership longer for that reason.

On my teams I have a smattering of Pedro, schmidt, Benson, Lohse (why I held him for NY I don't know - oh yeah, decent schedule upcoming and he put up a good performance against them at the stadium) Hudson, Runny, MacD, Worrell. Im losing money on Lohse but CHW, TAM, TAM, KAN looks too good too pass up - I think I will gain my money back and I don't want to use two trades - Ive burned (and been burned) enough already. Benson pitches against Schmidt but both have very fav schedules coming up. So Runny, who won't gain money and will most likely lose 100-300K, to Loaiza tonight for all the money seems best.

 
44Bandos
      ID: 39112921
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 00:22 		Just read that Schmidt is going to miss his next start.
 
45Rand
      Donor
      ID: 83231216
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 00:28 		I don't have Loaiza, and I agree with Bandos that he'll be gaining +100K over the next 6-7 days, so I think I'll move Runny to Loaiza tomorrow. I feel pretty sure that Runelvys will have some substantial losses and I hate giving up any gains. Will see how Macdougal and RRodriguez perform over the next couple of days. May move one of them back to Runny for his next start. I got way too many pitcher trades as it is. Need to lighten the load:)
 
46APerfect10
      Leader
      ID: 70412023
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 01:06 		If KC's rotation goes as planned, Runny will next face Toronto then Baltimore. Why trade now? I might, but it really doesnt make much sense point wise. Atleast Prior's selloff was legit since he's headed to Coors...
 
47Rogue Nine
      ID: 4326224
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 06:17 		There's alot of talk on the TSN boards about dropping him, but those boards are really no different then Rotoguru in that barely enough people post there to seriously affect price changes. So the real question is what will the masses do? I'm leaning towards them saying 'hmm, 96 TSNP, I'll hold him still'...

However, he's a ticking time bomb price-wise, which means we have to abandon him some time. His money-making days are over, and I don't see a Runny start at Toronto as a can't-miss start, so why not move him now? Loaiza is a sure-fire gainer until his next start, which is against the Twins. So, my choices:

1) Spend 0 trades, make 0$ (at best, may lose cash) and get a Runny start in Toronto.

2) Spend 1 trade, make at least 500K (probably more though) and get a Loaiza start at home vs. Min.

Is one trade worth 500K (probably more)? Depending on your trade and cash situation maybe-maybe not, but one thing to consider is that Loaiza has only gone up 680K so far. If he posts a good start vs Min, starting today he'd have 9-10 days of 100K + gains to make, putting him around the 1.5-2 mil Runny has gone up. Very possible.

The last question then is this: What are Loaiza's chances against Min? His last 4 TSNP are 101, 146, 117, 143. Even remembering who this is, that really impresses me. The Twins are 25th in the league in scoring right now, behind the likes of the Orioles, who Loaiza just smoked. So I'm going to assume that Loaiza will put up at worst the same pts on Sunday that Runny will. (Others may disagree, but for my purposes I'm going to count on it.) So for me, the 1 trade is worth 500K+ and 0 TSNP.
 
48DanDan
      ID: 4735618
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 06:52 		I have Hernandez, Loaiza and Suppan on all three of my teams.
I am not touching that dial. As long as Runny gives me 80 points per start, there is no way I am trading him, whatever his $ loss.
In general, I never trade a pitcher after a good start.
 
49Dave R
      Leader
      ID: 59191318
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 07:02 		There seems to be a lot of split sentiment here regarding to hold or trade Runny. Quite frankly, as stated by many there seems no logical reason to trade other than the fear of money losses.

And why is that? Because of the existance of this forum and apparently the TSN forum. I probably would have never give trading him a thought at this point.

Sometimes I wonder who the real lemmings are.
 
50smartone
      Donor
      ID: 191119269
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 07:52 		Dave R, I don't expect any big miracles nor huge TSNPs from both Elvis and Loaiza next Sunday, so my move Elvis-->Loaiza will likely net me anything in the $600-1.2M range ($500-600K gains for Loaiza are "for sure", while pretty significant losses for Elvis won't surprise me). IMHO, at this stage of the season, $1M RV worth 1 PT.

well, don't take my posts seriously based on my poor performance this year... oh well... at least I try to break the WWWWR 7,000 mark...
 
51jedman
      Sustainer
      ID: 503141122
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 07:59 		I would agree that Hernandez>Loaiza makes sense. I guess you could throw Suppan in there as far as money. But I already have Loaiza, so then who else would I get? I guess Worrell is an option. Tough to decide, the guy is throwing well and while Toronto is no guarantee, they certainly should not strike fear into anybody either.
 
52Ender
      ID: 13443221
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 08:22 		We have this discussion every year about some player, almost always a pitcher. As I recall, every year there is a logical contingent that says "I'm holding because there is no good reason to hold him :P" I am usually in that group. I am also usually very disappointed in the money slide that inevitably follows and -$500K (or more later) I am sitting in front of my monitor watching the pitcher post an average (or even better) start. I try to comfort myself, but I always wish I had moved him.

The bottom line is this, Hernande will pitch once in the next 9 days. He is not going to make anymore money. There are money making options out there (Loaiza and Worrell) who match up easily performance and price-wise. Even if he holds his price you will miss out on major $$$.

jedman, I understand your situation. I have been there and if you already have Loaiza, moving Hernandez isn't as big a priority. Consider Worrell for the dough, but you've played long enough you don't need my advice :)

Good luck to everybody.
 
53Texas Flood
      Donor
      ID: 311039208
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 08:42 		Estaban Loooza, i had that batting practice chump on my roti team a couple of years ago and i can still hear the bombs going off in my head.

You guys are hyping a career bozo here. surely there has to be a better alternative. I'm going to hold Elvis till he starts leaking $$$ or through his next start which ever happens first.

Loaiza though, no way!
 
54darkside
      Leader
      ID: 516203012
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 09:06 		His next start is @Tor which people have been implying will be a cream-puff. FWIW, they are currently tied for 6th (with SF) in MLB in runs scored:

Team batting stats
 
55stinkypuff
      ID: 22347226
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 09:39 		Darkside: They Jays have played one or two more games than most teams, so their runs scored ranking is slightly skewed. They avg. 5.2 runs per game; SF avgs. 5.7 per game. Based on slugging pct. (.429), they are closer to the middle of the pack. Not creampuffs, but not crushers either.
 
56VID
      ID: 22947267
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 09:48 		Isn't Loaiza's previous performance totally irrelevant? Stay away from him, go to him-do whatever, but you cannot deny that it's all about the cash.

For the record, Loaiza has always been known as a guy with tremendous stuff who always lost focus. Has he suddenly found a way to keep his focus? Who cares!

I have him and an implosion is inevitable-shoot- Pedro and all the studs have so why wouldn't Loaiza? But that's besides the point isn't it? The guy is making serious cash right now and that's the only reason anyone has him on their roster. A sell off is inevitable with him just like everyone else. It's all about cashing in the gains and moving on.

I certainly have no delusions about him. I am sure everyone else who has him doesn't either. But it's all about the cash which the guy is making a serious amount of.

I agree with darkside-Toronto is certainly not a given. But I'll take his implosion and move on if he's making me 120k in the meantime.
 
57Rogue Nine
      ID: 31341237
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 09:48 		Texas Flood, I'm not planning on holding Loaiza long. However he will get me anywhere from 500K to 1000K, and given his April track record and mediocre Minnesota offense, probably a half-decent start on Sunday. If that allows the train to continue, fine. If he bombs and I'm forced to move him, fine. I'll take my 500K and run.

Either way, I'm not picking up Loaiza to boost my ERA, WHIP, K's or Wins for an entire season. I'm picking him up for a 5 day to 2 week period to gain some TSND. He'll suit that purpose very well. (And believe me, the last thing I'm thinking about doing is picking him up for my roto league. He'll need to do great until June before I even think it.)
 
58darkside
      Leader
      ID: 516203012
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 09:55 		Whoops - That's what I get for using pronouns....his, in post 54 is referring to the subject of the thread, Runny, not Esteban. Sorry for the confusion.

VI - Esteban's next opponent is Min, who has only scored 76 runs thus far (in 20 games). Personally, I like that much better than a leaking Runny against @Tor.

stinkypuff - thanks for pointing it out.
 
59smartone @work
      ID: 131198
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 09:57 		09:56am: You sold Hernandez, Runnelvys for $2,980,000 and bought Loaiza, Esteban for $2,620,000.

 
60Dave R
      Leader
      ID: 47635299
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 10:00 		The whole point I tried to make was that the only reason to sell Runny is the fear of a massive selloff which is more than provoked by threads like this. I have Loaizo already so he's not an option.

Yeh it's nice to take the money and run, but IMO, if you have a better option. Unless you have the cash to upgrade I don't see one.
 
61Farn
      Donor
      ID: 7822711
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 10:01 		I am considering buying Loaiza today from Elvis and then selling him before his start Sunday. I know he is a ticking time bomb who is going to explode for a -60SWP real soon. But the 500k that comes before his next start is hard to avoid.
 
62Matt G
      ID: 43047610
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 10:02 		See I see this as a bigger problem for me:
I'm holding as my staff. Loaiza, Runny, MacDougal, Mussina and Wood. They are bringing me such nice points and I really don't want to go and try to fix something that's not broke. I also have 4 pitcher trades so I can easily move in and out of pitchers as need be. I just picked up wood the other day moving out of prior after his last start. I'm avoiding him in Col. MY Pitchers are responsible for most of my points my hitters haven't done jack for me this year. I can move from runny into someone else, but I see no other Viable candidates that I don't hold. No one that has really caught my eye.

I'm holding, hoping any gains of Loaiza and Wood etc balance out the losses of Runny and MacD and On thursday I'll trade into some Good money makers as hitters.
 
63smallwhirled
      Donor
      ID: 17152614
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 10:08 		Maximum net $$ will mean a move today. The longer you hold, the more likely you'll just hold out though. Makes for a tough decision, that's for sure. I've saved quite a bit of cash in my bank, so I have a ton of options...but Loiaza's money train seems too good for me too pass. Runny > Loiaza seems pretty straightfoward.

Eventually (week/week and a half), I'd like to move have some cash to go back into the studs, so grabbing Loiaza, and RV boosting seems like a good idea.

smallwhirled
 
64VID
      ID: 22947267
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 10:09 		Tim (darkside)-Yea I noticed that after I posted. My whole point though was that it is irrelevant who he pitches against. So many posts nowadays seem to be attempting to persuade people what to do instead of just analyzing the situation.

It's really quite simple for everyone to analyze: Is a possible -100 point outing worth the cash he will make? It is for me. I can't answer for everyone else. Regardless of what everyone decides they should make their choice, move on and stop trying to convince everyone that their way is the right way.

End of soapbox!:)
 
65jedman
      Sustainer
      ID: 503141122
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 10:15 		Remembering an old stock market adage - "Don't fight the tape" I sold Elvis on all three teams. Making money has to take priority at this time of the year. I went to Dreifort on my best team which allowed me to upgrade Cruz to Manny who seems to be heating up. I got Woody Williams on 2 teams who seems to be in a zone at this time. Time will tell if these were good moves.
 
66Farn
      Donor
      ID: 7822711
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 10:15 		Is a possible -100 point outing worth the cash he will make?

No. That's why I am considering picking him up for the 500-600k and then dumping him prefreeze the day of his start. I have plenty of trades banked anyway.
 
67ukula
      Donor
      ID: 6347236
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 10:16 		Dumped Runny on all of my teams. Grabbed Loazia on most with a couple Runny>Zito>Loazia on teams that had enough cash to take advantage of the Zito/Tiger matchup. I think the net effect of the Runny>Loazia move will be near 1 million in RV over the next 5 days. Can't pass that up - I'll be looking for those $$ later in the season.
 
68VID
      ID: 22947267
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 10:28 		Farn-that's the choice you make-go for it. I could never make that move since it seems to me to waste a potential 100 positive outing. And of course if he continues to pitch well the train continues. But I am not you or vice versa.

As I said. Personal choice. We disagree. You certainly have the right. Good luck.
 
69Ref
      Donor
      ID: 100261311
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 10:44 		I'm with Dave R. With only about 5000 players are so and many of us owning multiple teams, we certainly do make an impact on TSN unlike the pre-pay game when there were 100,000 or so trading.

That's why I'm so torn on Prior and Runy. They are pitching well right now. Comon sense tells you to leave them alone keep pace, save your trades and make your move when you have other hot pitchers.

Well now, when some of us think the sky is falling--it really will! While I'd admire and have high respect for PP and some of the others that post here, I certainly agree with some that this added hype can cause unnecessary volatility. Esp., when it comes from someone like PP who the vets respect. I also agree with jedman that sometimes you have to go with the flow (don't fight the tape) and cash out. But that flow (tape) may have been started with this thread.
 
70Farn
      Donor
      ID: 7822711
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 10:48 		Definately agree with Ref. Even though the Rotoguru boards doens't represent a large portion of the TSN teams we have a gigantic impact.

With the link to this place being plastered all over TSN boards we get all kinds of lurkers. Its understood that this place is full of excellent managers. So if they see a player being hyped or bashed here that will accelerate the buy or sell rates. A simple thread like this adds tons of fuel to the fire.

This is why I am against all kinds of individual player threads. People read the headline and a couple of posts and race for their TSN team to make moves. This season is much different than past seasons. Trigger fingers are far outnumbering patient managers and prices are very volatile because of it.
 
71cancermoon
      ID: 1242115
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 11:12 		Ref i think if you look at elvis's stats he is not pitching well lately, infact he has pitched total crap in his last 3 games, last game he gave up 3 hits and 6 walks and only 1 ER, that is damn luck, not good pitching, vs Cleveland he gave up 7 hits and 2 walks and 0 ER. hat again could have just as easily been 5 or 6 ER. The guy is a time bomb, pitching badly and getting away with it, not for long i bet.
 
72darkside
      Leader
      ID: 516203012
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 11:18 		Fuel to the fire????

He had 6 walks last night. He plays for the Royals...not a team to expect a ton of run support from. He's faced one 'decent' offensive team in the White Sox...he shut 'em down once (144 TSNP, IIRC), got like 46 TSNP the other time. Det. and Min were his other opponents and they're the bottom two teams in the AL in runs scored.

If you're whining about adding fuel to the fire, then you're whining about an intelligent discussion about the pros and cons of holding a player with 50% ownership who had a price leak a day prior to his start, gained only 20k the day of his start, and is guaranteed to drop at least 4 of the next 5 days.

Pro - he's dirt cheap for the points he's given us (note: gave us, not will give). If (big 'if', IMO) he does well in Tor. has the hapless O's after that. If you don't have any extra money, it's a tough call, but you certainly won't have any extra money if you hold on to him.

Con - everyone and their brother owns him and he's going to lose money and has a tougher opponent next time.

Don't shoot the messengers, or those who choose to read the message....just hold your ground and hope you're right.
 
73Farn
      Donor
      ID: 7822711
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 11:24 		darkside- i was referring to just this thread. its the specific player threads that popup. I agree that Runny needs to go today for the reasons you state.

My point was that threads about a specific player here can get a newbie manager to make a move without much thought. Multiply that by a few thousand newbies and we have a huge dollar swing.
 
74ukula
      Donor
      ID: 6347236
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 11:25 		The key day will probably be tomorrow when the uninformed managers see Runny's -xxK loss today and decide to bail out. That will start the avalanche - it's going to be ugly.
 
75Pearl St. Punisher
      Donor
      ID: 2262713
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 11:29 		Lemmings, all Lemmings.....

I'm in PT saving mode, so I'm holding. If Loaiza or Suppan were pitching before RunyNoseElvis, then I would possibly make a trade. But, they just pitched last nite. What is the point of wasting a trade if you're not getting points for some time. GuruRotation, baby, GuruRotation.

-Punisher
 
76ukula
      Donor
      ID: 6347236
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 11:37 		Why trade? 1 million $$ in extra RV for 1 PT. I'll take it.
 
77Ref
      Donor
      ID: 100261311
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 11:44 		I didn't say he should or should not go. ALso, I'm not saying my opinions are right--they are just that, my opinions.
 
78VID
      ID: 22947267
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 11:50 		Elvis right now has more points than Pedro, RJ, Schilling, Mussina and every other pitcher not named Loaiza-the other train.

Again, its very simple. If you think he will keep pitching like the second coming of Pedro-hold. If you think there will be a correction and he will lose all that wonderful cash he's gained-and you do not want to lose that cash-trade.
 
79Dave R
      Leader
      ID: 12441623
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 11:50 		Mass hysteria has set in, to sell or not to sell?
IMO , as I said before production wise thers no reason to dump at his price.

That being said he's sure to drop in price as I just fueled the fire with six drops of Runny
 
80Great One
      Donor
      ID: 41136511
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 11:53 		3x for me.. but I am moving my other random pitcher slot back to Runnys for his next two starts at a reduced price later this week.
 
81smartone @work
      ID: 131198
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 11:55 		will Elvis be "Griffey-ed" today, or has TSN adjusted/flattened the pricing formula, or is there a different pricing formula to pitchers/hitters (in addition to the 5-days average)?

answer in 5 minutes!

(NOT trying to flame, just curious)
 
82smartone @work
      ID: 131198
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 12:01 		only -50K for Elvis, +130 for Loaiza
 
83Ref
      Donor
      ID: 100261311
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 12:02 		As I said in Belly thread, I had already planned to dump Runy unless he had a huge huge game or he had a nice price gain leading up to this start. He didn't, so I bailed. But with the added hype, I feel that even if you planned to hold, you gotta dump. Same with Prior--even though I had planned to hold him through his next start in Coors.
 
84Dave R
      Leader
      ID: 12441623
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 12:06 		Ok who's gonna start the next thread

"I'm not going to frugal with MacDougal"

The train has slowed and soon he will begin to bleed. How bout hold for a few days and get Runny back?
 
85Matt G
      ID: 43047610
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 12:16 		I'm staying put!!! I've got both runny and macd so I can't really move one to the other. I have Loaiza too so between the 2 I'm up like $80K today... No big deal. I'll stick it out past his next start and re-evalutate. I'm comfortable on cash and I have enough other guys gaining money to make up the difference...
 
86VID
      ID: 22947267
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 12:16 		Lol Dave R!!
 
87beastiemiked
      Sustainer
      ID: 29145419
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 12:19 		I can't see picking up Runny until 5/2(@Bal) by then he should've sustained most of his losses. The free fall has started and it'll be awhile before it stabilizes, IMO.

The Macdougal train is in trouble, especially with Loaiza and Suppan gaining steam. I've got a PT with his name on it.
 
88Gman15
      Leader
      ID: 1531677
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 12:53 		Nothing that I read pointed towards holding Runelvys - moved him to Shane Reynolds x 4. Haven't seen any discussion about Reynolds, but watched his last start and he looked effective. At home against Milwaukee on 4/25 looks safe, but then at Houston on 4/30. Could be a 1 start hold, but might gamble on holding for a big game against his old team. Will have plenty of time to evaluate after his 4/25 start.
 
89Texas Flood
      Donor
      ID: 40211014
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 13:33 		well the leak has started and Elvis is going to leave the building. However, La-oozer has some serious downside. He may make some cash but you may see -125 as part of the deal. i'm looking for a better alternative.

Thanks again Elvis hope to see you again soon.
 
90Bandos
      ID: 422571916
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 14:05 		OK - I know this is fortuitous but I forced myself to watch the White Sox game last night (at least part of it;) because I was thinking of picking him up and of course, since I didn't own him, was hoping for him to fail miserably. good 90 pmh LOW fastball that moved, breaking ball seemed sharp both back up and back door. The TSN blurb about good april was interesting as well. He threw strikes, granted against a crappy team, but strikes! I was impressed enough to actually buy him (the money gain was nice too!)
 
91bookie
      ID: 1859247
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 14:10 		As stated way up in about post 6 (give or take a couple). I was going to keep him if he put up 100 points or so... Several things happened to change my mind.

1) Loaiza (who I had) pitched well again yesterday and there was mucho talk of going Runny -> Loaiza...
2) Too many people talking about bailing, that I'm certain he'll lose a few hundred thousand before his next start.. I'm not willing to take those losses
3) Runny walked 6 and threw a lot of pitches...

So I went to Mantei, hoping that AZ can win a few close games over the next few weeks/months
 
92smartone
      Donor
      ID: 191119269
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 22:22 		MIN @ KC: THE GAME HAS BEEN POSTPONED DUE TO RAIN. IT WILL BE MADE UP ON MONDAY, JUNE 16 AT 8:05 PM, EDT.

This makes Elvis' case tougher... if KC keeps the 5-starters rotation, his next start is going to be pushed to 4/29 @BOS (i/o @TOR on 4/27) -- which means that there are 2 more days for price drops before he gets a chance to pitch again (not trying to flame here, and I must admit that I sold him today AND that I have more problems with my other pitchers)
 
93The Left Wings
      ID: 6142019
      Wed, Apr 23, 2003, 22:45 		I thought I heard somebody say that KC uses the 5-day rotation.
 
94 Tony Montana
      ID: 243392323
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 04:11 		I was hoping for Runny's price to be stable this week so I could save some PT but it's not the case. The thing that does make perfect sense about Trading Runny is that although he's put up some good TSNP there is no guarantee on his future. Infact the TSN update says he's due for a slump. Sure that may or may not happen on his next start, but there is no point in even waiting to find out because He's not going to gain anymore value. At this point Runny is nothing but a liability. There are other pitchers who are do for good performances, and at the same time have potential to earn value. That's allot better than keeping a guy on who has no potential to earn cash, and not much potential to sustain his pitching production.

About this Board having influences on the trends. I doubt it. I mean anyone with half a brain can spot these issues by examining the price history on the players.

Although I was surprised by the sudden jolt in Hudson, Wood, and Zito's earnings after seeing conversations of their "favorable" matchups this week on the TSN board.
 
95Rogue Nine
      ID: 31341237
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 04:47 		Farn, post 70: "This is why I am against all kinds of individual player threads. People read the headline and a couple of posts and race for their TSN team to make moves. This season is much different than past seasons. Trigger fingers are far outnumbering patient managers and prices are very volatile because of it."

I don't really see how this season is any different from years past. Lemming-like trigger trading has always been a factor early in the season. If anything, this year and last year we've seen more rationality in price changes. Prior to the pay game era, trains would often last longer for no real reason (other then that the player went up in price the previous day), and pitchers with good matchups would rarely rise 90-100K in April. Now we see gains only from players who have earned them and losses from trains that everyone knows are going to de-rail soon.

You may disagree with what I wrote above, but why is discussing players who follow these patterns wrong?
 
96farbermania
      ID: 153232112
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 09:57 		ok, what do you people not undestand about buy low sell high. The rational for selling Runny is that if you sell before the price drop, and buy AFTER the price drop 3 things will happen.

1) Selling saves you at least the $300-500k that you will lose in Runny's value.

2) Moving to Loaiza gives you the same (if not better TSNP production) while gaining $500-700k in value over the next week.

3) If Runny continues to dominate, then after his plunge, he will bounce back and Loaiza will drop, making a trade from Loaiza back to Runny even more appealing. However, this will be a one shot opportunity as the pendulum will not swing as far back on the next round. Runny's value will stabalize around the $4,500K mark.

However, this will all be just CRAP talk if Runny gets SARS while in Toronto while signing an autograph.
 
97smallwhirled
      Donor
      ID: 17152614
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 10:01 		He will never reach the $4,500K mark.
 
98farbermania
      ID: 153232112
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 10:03 		OOOPPPS I really meant to say $3,500K. Accidentally hit 4.
 
99Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 11:14 		RotoWire now projects him as starting next Tuesday in Boston. Opposing starter will probably be Wakefield.
 
100The Pink Pimp
      ID: 91127165
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 11:37 		Farbermania,

Your post correctly sums up the current picture on how to profit from Runny's fluctuations although I'm not sure that Runny will ever get to $3,500 when his price starts to climb again. If it took 50% ownership to get him to $2,980 it would take an even higher ownership to go beyond that. The only way I could see that happening is if Runny never has a bad outing. That's about the only thing that could boost manager confidence high enough to sustain a 60% ownership mark.

More likely in my eyes is he goes down $500 to $800 and then he gets bought back up to near where he is now. The size of the initial drop that he's in now will be influenced by his next start. A bad outing will make his drop larger while a good outing will lessen his fall. Still its an opportunity to sell him now and then make more money on him after his price decline stabilizes.
 
101Jackie Robinson
      Leader
      ID: 1711461810
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 12:03 		Hi Guru
Info I see on Fantistics and ESPN is that Elvis still going Sunday in Toronto. If info is correct they are skipping Snyder's turn.
 
102Gman15
      Leader
      ID: 1531677
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 12:10 		Down $110 today - the triple-digit bloodbath begins. If one did not have Loaiza and had a pitcher trade, it would be difficult not to use it for that swap.
 
103beastiemiked
      Sustainer
      ID: 3531815
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 12:12 		Uh oh, Macdougal down 10k. Hopefully he can pick up a save tonight to stop the bleeding. If he doesn't he could be going down triple digits by the time Tuesday rolls around.
 
104Bandos
      ID: 422571916
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 12:26 		Yup, noticed the same thing. Mantei appears to be the real beneficiary if Mac doesn't get the save tonight. After what happened to Runny, no one will hold Mac.
 
105dgrooves
      ID: 90203117
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 12:29 		Mantei? Worrell went up $50...
 
106beastiemiked
      Sustainer
      ID: 3531815
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 12:33 		Worrell's price is already jacked up. He hasn't gotten a save in over a week and has been seeing price increases for that whole time. Going Macdougal->Worrell seems a lateral move money wise as the Worrell train will be crashing soon if he doesn't get more save ops.
 
107Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 12:39 		It sounds like the Royals have yet to decide about their rotation plans:
"Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire said he will push the rest of his rotation back one day, rather than skip anybody. Pena said he had not made up his mind, though he said he was leaning toward the same decision.

The player who stands to lose the most because of the rainout is Royals rookie pitcher Kyle Snyder, who was scheduled to make his major league debut Friday in Toronto." Source: Topeka Capital-Journal
 
108dgrooves
      ID: 90203117
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 12:40 		Im not advocating buying Worrell, it just appears that he is getting more buys than Mantei, although AP10's numbers show their buys over the past few days are just about equal.
 
109beastiemiked
      Sustainer
      ID: 3531815
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 12:45 		I'm not advocating not buying Worrell. I was just pointing out that he hasn't been racking up the points this week.
 
110James K Polk
      ID: 51010719
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 13:04 		For anyone who doesn't know, Kyle Snyder has been considered one of the best of the Royals' pitching prospects. Probably higher on most lists than Hernandez or Affeldt, but he's had injuries that have really limited him. Last year he was on a strict pitch count, so only threw 70-some innings. But his velocity is back up, and he's had a 3-0, 2.74 stint so far at AAA Omaha. He's 25 years old, 6-foot-8, at full strength will hit the mid-90s with his fastball. He's got good command of several pitches, and he's been keeping the ball down great. Someone who might be worth keeping an eye on.
 
111smartone @work
      ID: 131198
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 14:04 		the obvious Elvis --> Loaiza move has netted so far:

4/23: $180K
4/24: $240K (E: -110K, L: +130K)

total: $420K

 
112Tony Montana
      ID: 243392323
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 14:51 		I think i did the smartest move of any of you. I already had Loaiza, Runny , and Macdougal, and yesterday I traded Macdougal and Runny for Chacon and Woody williams. Today my roster value went up 550k..


Anyone who still has Runny do yourself a favor and get rid of him now. Buy yourself another hot pitcher that can make you some cash. At his current price Runny is over valued, He's not worth that much thus his price is droppings.
 
113beastiemiked
      Sustainer
      ID: 29145419
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 15:10 		Not sure that picking up a pitcher before he makes a start @Coors is the smartest move. He's got good numbers there so far this year but no way that lasts.
 
114Ender
      ID: 45114615
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 16:26 		Runy is far from overvalued. That's not the problem. The problem is that people are cashing out there gains in order to make money elsewhere. There has been no problem at all with his performance versus his price.

What some people (surprisingly some vets) are having trouble accepting is that the swing will be big and the opportunity to make big $$$ will be lost if you hold for his next start. All you have do is move him, and miss ONE start. The money you gain will be worth the trades in and out, plus you should get (though not necessarily gain unless you move to someone who pitches before Hernandez's next start) points as well. Loaiza (or whoever) doesn't have to out pitch Hernandez, they just have to pitch the same or nearly the same. You are out no TSNP and have made all that cash. Are 2 PT's worth a probable $1.5 - $2 million swing? I think so.
 
115Tony Montana
      ID: 243392323
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 16:45 		Runny is overvalued. You're just looking at the TSNP points he put up so far, but He's not going to be playing that well all season. Sure if He could continue to put up those hot starts forever, I'd say for his current price he is undervalued. But we both know that's not going to happen, the law of averages will bring him back down to where he belongs. And when He settles to his expected TSNP production his Price will move to reflect that. Unless I'm wrong and Runny will continue to be in the TOP 5 pitcher list for the next 5 months, then you can say he's far from overvalued.

And As far as people unloading him now because of panic of losing money, That's somewhat true, But I don't think it's so much the panic of losing money than it is people's expectations that he is due for a slump. Anyone who's had Runny up to his last start probably got all they could ever expect from the guy.
 
116Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 17:04 		Nobody expects Runy to keep pitching like he has. He's averaged almost 100 TSNP per start, and those are Randy Johnson-like numbers.

But it seems way too premature to assess whether he is overvalued at a price of $3 million. Other starters in that price range include Ponson, Ashby, Garland, Hampton, Joe Mays, Miguel Batista, Helling, Joe Kennedy... When he returns to earth, can he compete with that crowd? Seems plausible. Can he be better? Perhaps. We don't have enough history to know how good or bad he is likely to be.

But for now, his problem is certainly not overvaluation.
 
117Ender
      ID: 45114615
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 17:09 		Read through the threads and opinions. I don't recall a single post from anyone worried about him having a bad game. He may, but that's not the motivation for selling.

I agree that he will not pitch this well all year, certainly not in the Top 5 at seasons end. However, that doesn't make him overvalued by any stretch. Overvalued means he is priced higher than his production. He didn't even make it to $3 million. I'm not sure what your expectations for a $3 mill pitcher are, but he doesn't have to do much to be worth having. If he can post 75 TSNP/start then he's still way undervalued at that price IMO. He'd have to pitch poorly consisitently to be overvalued at under $3 mill.
 
118Tony Montana
      ID: 243392323
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 17:49 		If he wasn't overvalued his price wouldn't be dropping. And I did read through the posts for your information, there are opinions that support the idea that Runny is due for a slump. Runny's at the peak of his performance, he isn't doing any better. Loaiza is putting up better production and at a lower price, Is it hard to understand why people are switching over to him?

Runny is worth around $2.9 now but do you think he'll be worth that much at the end of the season when you factor in all his poor games etc.. ? You're not looking at the big picture. I suggest you get a dictionary or an economics book and do some learning on the subject.
 
119beastiemiked
      Sustainer
      ID: 553291215
      Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 18:35 		I really hope you were kidding with that last line. Reminded me of Rick Reily's recent column where he almost got into a fight with the KKK guy.
 
121farbermania
      ID: 153232112
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 10:02 		Montana,
Your assumptions are completely unfounded. Every player is different. Runny may very well hit a slump, but not cause he's "DUE." He has shown no signs of slumping. He's been a horse so far this season and may very well put up great numbers for the season.

Look, you don't have to convince me to dump Runny. I already have on ALL of my teams, but I'm dumping him because of his gravity, not whether he's overvalued or not. The only thing that can determine his "VALUE" is TSNP production vs. PRICE balance (umm... a catagory in which he is a top player on a short list). His "PRICE" is determined by all of those people who are still looking to up their own FV while still early in the season (the exact same reason I sold him). At this point, I'd rather have the money than the points. That, my friend, is part of my strategy.

Your arguments that he's "overvalued" or "due for a slump" just won't hold water because at this point it is just as likely that he will continue to produce as he is not. It is a complete coin toss. It always is. Remember the ZITO, PEDRO, RJ disaster a few weeks ago? Who could have predicted that?
 
122farbermania
      ID: 153232112
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 10:12 		basically, what I'm trying to say is. . .

Um, yeah, what ENDER said.
 
123Ender
      ID: 45114615
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 10:22 		First, I don't care for your tone in the last post. No one is attacking you so there is no need to get defensive and there's no need to be rude. All I said was to read through the posts ans you won't find anyone who was dumping him for performance reasons. If you inferred that I meant you hadn't read them at all, that's on your shoulders. That is not what was intended. There are many posts on the subject and reading back through them for a specific motivation for selling is all I recommended. No offense was intended.

I'll say it again, if you lok at price vs performance he is still grossly undervalued. That is he is producing at a level far above his price tag. If he were overvalued then he would be producing far below the other players in his same price range which is clearly no the case.

He is being sold because his price stopped increasing and there was a similarly priced pitcher with the same production whose price was increasing. The moves were made simply to make more money. I still challenge you to find someone who sold him because think someone else will outproduce him. Loaiza may, but that's not why people made that move. It was pure $$$. People knew that at best Runy wouldn't make any more money and at worst would being to lose it. They also knew that Loaiza would begin to make a lot. Who wouldn't make that move? Especially if production would be similar. Heck, I'll bet many people would make it short term even if the production may be a little less. The $$$ alone are worth the trades IMO (though others may feel differently). I'll make loads of money, especially given the net swing between the two pitchers.
 
124Caper
      Donor
      ID: 1535108
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 10:37 		As someone who did trade Runny to Loaiza, I can tell you $$$$ is why I did it. It bothered me to trade a top producer at his position who was priced very well for his production to another for purely $$$$. But the fact is that when a pitcher is that widely held, people get antsy and will panic sell for little or no reason.Just like now I guess.

As Guru pointed out earlier, Runny was on too many rosters to keep making money and any sells would result in losses. This is the time of year to make a few $$$ to be able to keep up in the second half. Theory says that the points will be returned by being able to hold better players at the end. Runny may well blow up his next start, but I don't see any indicators other than the laws of probability, that eventually catch up to every starter, of that happening.

As a side thought or question, if Randy/Curt/Maddux/Oswalt... do not get their acts together, will this make the dollars vs point balance shift? Maybe the best available pitching staff will be $5-10 million cheaper. The $$$$ we sacrifice for in the first half may lay in the bank, if we get carried away. Just a thought.....
 
125farbermania
      ID: 153232112
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 10:39 		ender, were you in my brain this morning?

Oh, no, I forgot. You're just making complete sense. Nice economic summary.
 
126Go Easy
      Donor
      ID: 45352412
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 10:47 		Ender, Caper, Guru and others I agree. I didn't want to sell but had to with the inevitable $$$ decline. Only reason to sell is for $$$ purposes. If someone can predict when he's going to blow up they should be in vegas not at the Guru's site.
 
127Texas Flood
      Donor
      ID: 40211014
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 10:47 		with all the runny sell offs can the Loaiza>Runny thread be far behind. Ender and others are 100% correct. Loaiza is pitching way beyond his career norms and most likely will sting a lot of us with one of his implosions. I just hope the cash is worth it.

Runny actually went for $3 in our acution draft, talk about undervalued!
 
128Farn
      Donor
      ID: 7822711
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 10:49 		I don't think a bad Loaiza performance will hurt at all. We all know its coming. But with so many managers owning him already everyone will be taking the hit so it won't impact the standings too much.
 
129Go Easy
      Donor
      ID: 45352412
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 10:50 		My last post should have read "predict acurately".
 
130On the 85th year
      ID: 10344614
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 10:54 		Thats a great point Farn, everyone has him so the money and the pts are almost irrelevant, the differemce maker here will be getting off him at the right time, IE, prior to his eventual & inevitable HUGE Griffeyesque price drop. So those mgr's which hold EL and do not also hold a PT are playing with a large inferno. IMHO
 
131cancermoon
      ID: 2239719
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 12:02 		Well I hold my hand up, I sold Elvis because his last three starts were damn lucky and he isn't pitching well at all, as soon as he strikes a team that is even remotely warm, he'll get slayed. I decided to grab a cheap closer instead, it had nothing to do with $$$ though, which is why i am still holding Prior, and will also keep hold of MacDougal aswell.
 
132smartone @work
      ID: 131198
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 12:16 		for the record:

the obvious Elvis --> Loaiza move has netted so far:

4/23: $180K
4/24: $240K (E: -110K, L: +130K)
4/25: $250K (E: -120K, L: +130K)

total: $670K


 
133Matt G
      ID: 43047610
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 12:24 		I have Runny and Loaiza and still made $300K today, so I'm not complaining at all. Would be nice to have the extra from not hold runny, but I wanted the trades this time.
 
134Ref
      Donor
      ID: 100261311
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 12:27 		What I think gets lost in the buy low sell high as holt mentioned in 4 as being as basic as it gets is that we're not playing simply whoever has the most money wins. This is whoever has the most points wins. Money is a means to an end. We want to gain RV so we can afford the players that should be playing the best long term who tend to be higher in price, yet we don't want to throw away points in doing so. So there is a fine line at times at making RV gains and gaining points.
 
135walk
      Leader
      ID: 4112711
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 12:59 		Freaking no-brainer move, especially given all of the advice the boards. And the overvaluation point is completey moot. And way too soon to say. Bottom Line is Runny maxed out and we all moved from KMart to WalMart.

Next week it'll be Esteban's turn. "As the money-making pitcher turns..."

- walk
 
136smallwhirled
      Donor
      ID: 17152614
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 13:49 		I made the move strictly for the $$$, it had nothing to do with performance. That ownership, with the selloff, etc., etc. Plus what if you ate the losses, then he put up a stinker? Forget about it, he continues to absolutely tumble. It is too much of a risk to just hold him, IMHO.

I've made it a point to play these games with RV as my focus the past year, and not just early...but to continue it going. Sure there will be tons of cheap performers, but in the end more RV will always help your team out. It gives you much more room for error. I'm not saying it's the best way to play by any means, but I'm a greedy bastard for the RV. Ask someone who played hockey this year, I started with a week late team, got some help with some trades to make up the RV real quick and then kept it going. If the season was another 2 weeks, I probably would've won the dang thing finishing in 9th (applause for Dan). I blew away almost every team the last few months with a top RV. So don't just go out and say that RV is insignificant because it is.

smallwhirled
 
137wiggs
      Donor
      ID: 52362510
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 13:57 		this is just yet another move i feel i was "forced" to make due to the huge sell offs. I think runny is pitching just fine and i personally dont see any point in moving him, but the way the money was moving, if i wanted to keep my RV i had to bail on him. I wish people wouldnt be so trade happy.
 
138The Pink Pimp
      ID: 91127165
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 14:09 		Wiggs - if you hate being "forced" to make this trade, I'll bet you LOVED RanDro'ing back in the day!
 
139Ref
      Donor
      ID: 100261311
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 14:18 		Actually, I was looking to movy Runy anyhow. But I do feel I was forced to dump Prior.
 
140walk
      Leader
      ID: 4112711
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 16:12 		Half the moves we all make are because of market pressures. That is what making money is all about...responding to market sentiment, regardless of performance. Usually there is a positive correlation between performance and price, but in cases like these, and others, they are not. Then one is left to decide to either trade for money, trade for points, or hold trades for later.

- walk
 
141Matt G
      ID: 43047610
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 16:40 		Essentially I trade for Pts, which in turn gets me money. I see a guy who is hot, I see a favorable schedule, I trade into him, I get his points and gobble some dollars. It has worked this year so far. I'm towards the top of my division, and I have $59.5 mill
 
142walk
      Leader
      ID: 4112711
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 16:59 		I am dumb and envious, Matt G. You have $1MM more than either of my teams and I am not sitting on top of my divisions. And I am trading following money. Makes me re-think my strategy.

- walk
 
143Ref
      Donor
      ID: 100261311
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 17:18 		I'm doing the same thing as Matt G, and I may have a mill more than him.
 
144Texas Flood
      Donor
      ID: 40211014
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 17:22 		I just plain suck this year. 58 mil (good) wwr about 4000 (terrible). i've been on the crap end of every pitcher implosion possible. "thank you sir may i have another" is my team motto!

it's still a long season, a few trades in the bank and one successful guru rotation will put me back in the hunt, i hope:).
 
145Tony Montana
      ID: 03102516
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 18:36 		Well I'm sorry I went below the belt in my last post Ender, but I'm getting frustrated over the fact that I can't get through to you people. I am going to try and explain one last time why Runny was overvalued( at the time I first made that claim, not today), and If I fail then screw this , this conversation is overvalued..

Ok lets take the prices of Loaiza and Runny from last Wednesday, before Runny started to sink.

Loaiza; 3.01-.13-.13-.13 = $2.62

Runny; .12+.11+.05 +2.7 = $2.98

Those were the prices of the Loazia and Runny three days ago when I first made my claim.

So on Wednesday you had

Loazia; 507tsnp @ $2.62million
compared to
Runny; 488tsnp @ $2.98million

Clearly you can see that at that point Loaiza had more production for less price. And compared to Loazia Runny WAS overvalued.

Lets use an alagory,

Suppose you're shopping for oranges

Orange stand A is selling 5 oranges for $2.50

Orange stand B is selling 4 oranges for $3.00

Which stand would you choose from?
Obviously B is selling less for more therefore B is overvalued.

That's why people Started to sell off Runny for Loaiza because Loaiza had more production for less price. You may think Runny was undervalued compared to the top $$ pitchers, but compared to Loazia he wasn't.

That's why the landslide on Runny started 3 days ago, because there was a better pitcher than him at a lower price. If Loazia didn't have such a good start and Runny had more tsnp than Loazia, then Runny's price would have held.

Looking at the prices today Runny is selling for much less than Loazia and I think that Runny's price will stabilize and possibly increase depending on his next performance, and Loaiza's next performance.

I'm not saying there aren't people who follow the money trains, I'm just trying to explain why the money trains begin in the first place.

 
146Tony Montana
      ID: 03102516
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 18:56 		The point in short is I'm not saying at all that Runny is a bad deal, all I'm saying is that two or three days ago, Loaiza was a better deal. People go for the better deal that's what causes the price changes. Now that's ignoring all of the speculation on who is actually a better pitcher in the long run. If we were concerened with the long run we wouldn't have Runny to begin with,, We'd all be trying to get the proven pitchers now, but that's not how this game works. So forget about who's going to put up better numbers next week, just look at what we have so far.
 
147Ender
      ID: 13443221
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 19:37 		You're going to need a lot more patience. You'll also need to be comfortable with the fact that you may be able to learn some things instead of coming hear to teach all of us a lesson. The finest of the finest hang out on these boards. You can contribute, but understand that there are many people who have been playing this game for several years. You will get further if you don't sound so condascending.

I understand what you are saying. The problem IMO is that you are using "undervalued" and "overvalued" relative to a single player. You need to think of it in general terms. Also, the $360K difference between Hernandez and Loaiza is negligible. That certainly wasn't the motivation for most people. Loaiza could have been price $360K or more higher than Hernandez and this still would have happened.

The bottom line is this: Hernandez had stopped gaining money. He was likely to begin to lose money. Loiaza had started gaining money. The rationale was there to sell Hernnadez. Loaiza ended up being the recipient of most of the sells. It sould just as easily have been any other pitcher with $1 million of Hernandez (maybe more, maybe less). Loaiza benefitted from having pitched a gem the day before the selloff of Hernandez began. That was more important than their relative prices.
 
148Pancho Villa
      Donor
      ID: 50342715
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 19:38 		I'm with Ender on this one. Just because a guy outperforms another and he is cheaper, that doesn't mean you go out and pick him up all the time. I mean this does happen daily. You get 3 PTs a week man. Runny ran because people got nervous by his wide ownership. Once he began to bleed he bled. They saw Loaiza as an immediate option because of his recent production AND people pumping him . The good ol' PUMP'N DUMP!!! RUNNY WAS NOT OVERVALUED HE WAS OVEREXPOSED. Oops my caps was on. There is a distinct difference between the two.
 
149Tony Montana
      ID: 253522517
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 19:58 		Well I've been as crystal clear as I could possibly be yet you still don't want to listen. You want to talk about being condescending yet you can't even spell it right. I tried being nice, but you all (Especially you Ender) are a bunch of stuck up stubborn mules. You can't put two and two together, let alone understand anything about economics. Take your exclusive message forum and shove it for all I care.
 
150Texas Flood
      Donor
      ID: 311039208
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 20:01 		bye bye.
 
151Farn
      Donor
      ID: 7822711
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 20:15 		take care Joe Montana.
 
152Pancho Villa
      Donor
      ID: 50342715
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 20:28 		Toni Muntunna!!! Say hello to ma little fren!!!
 
153Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 20:34 		I remember in years back when I had several people telling me I was all screwed up in my "Guru rotation" analysis because Randro generated one start per trade, period. The more I tried to reason, the more they kept saying that I just wouldn't listen.

There are times when "not listening" is simply the best option. This is one.
 
154cancermoon
      ID: 573392510
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 21:36 		Tony Montana if you are reading this still, I am curious about one thing, I understand that you said Loaiza was a better deal and so the better pick up, but using your theory about deals, surely with 5 pitching slots, Runny was still a better deal thatn the others and so both should have been kept as a better deal than the rest maybe? Although that isn't true either as I am sure Carter, and a few others are even better deals for their price than Loaiza or Runny.
 
155Ref
      Donor
      ID: 539581218
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 21:37 		Thing is, the big friend didn't even talk about using trades or player going up or down. Hey, ender...at least you tried!!!
 
156Ender
      ID: 13443221
      Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 22:41 		cm, that was a point I forgot to bring up. In his scenario, it would really be better to move a much higher priced pitcher to Loaiza and hold both he and Hernandez. That was the fatal flaw in his logic IMO. He was zeroed in on just those 2 pitchers and didn't consider any other slots. He also couldn't conceive of any other reason to sell Hernandez other than to buy Loaiza. Hernendez was going no matter what. His gains had ceased and he would have bled slowly then collapsed. Loaiza was the right guy at the right time and sped up the whole process.

Oh well. I tried, like you said Ref.
 
157Bond, James Bond
      ID: 711210
      Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 00:17 		Montana, you big egotistical jerk! Normally in a case like yours, I would say, "Don't let the door hit you" but in your case I'll make an exception! ;)
 
158R9 - Belly Colon
      ID: 5530259
      Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 00:40 		This thread makes me feel a little better. If the new and not so intelligent managers are making the right moves for all the wrong reasons, then surely at some point they'll make a few wrong moves and allow me to break the top 10,000!

;)
 
159smartone
      Donor
      ID: 191119269
      Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 12:17 		for the record:

the obvious Elvis --> Loaiza move has netted so far:

4/23: $180K
4/24: $240K (E: -110K, L: +130K)
4/25: $250K (E: -120K, L: +130K)
4/26: $260K (E: -130K, L: +130K)

total: $930K
 
161Great One
      Donor
      ID: 41136511
      Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 14:37 		gonna be sweeter and sweeter the closer Runny gets to the 2 million mark - and the more that that gap grows -... then you can cash in the difference.
Now if my other 4 could just get the Save Train rollin'... I think it starts, tonight.
 
162The Pink Pimp
      ID: 56332914
      Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 17:02 		Here's what happened to all those who were "forced" to go Elvis --> Loaiza

4/23: $180K
4/24: $240K (E: -110K, L: +130K)
4/25: $250K (E: -120K, L: +130K)
4/26: $260K (E: -130K, L: +130K)
4/27: $260K (E: -130K, L: +130K)
4/28: $250K (E: -120K, L: +130K)
4/29: $230K (E: -100K, L: +130K)
total: $1,670K
 
163smartone
      ID: 313039
      Tue, Aug 31, 2004, 09:37 		...had to post this...

from Rotowire: RHP Runelvys Hernandez is in Kansas City for a two-day workout with the Royals.
Hernandez, who had Tommy John surgery on his right elbow last September, will throw 35 pitches from a bullpen mound today. The 26-year-old right-hander, who had been throwing in Arizona since February, is expected to pitch in the Instructional League this fall and be ready for spring training next season. Aug. 31 - 7:56 am et
Source: Kansas City Star