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Forum: base
Page 14695
Subject: MORA (Next train)

Posted by: On the 85th year - [10344614] Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 19:03

I was lucky to pick him up yesterday, last moght I regretted the move but today....50 tsnp by the 2nd inning,,, IMHO, but with the favorable sched and balti injuries, he could be a nice pick up..steals, power. choo-choo?

On the 85th year
ID: 10344614
Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 19:15

Not to mention he is a 4 pos player...OF,SS,2B,DH

Farn
Donor
ID: 7822711
Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 19:22

ugh

smartone
Donor
ID: 191119269
Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 19:27

D'Angelo --> Mora?

(and i really want to hop to the Chacon train... where's the door = who to sell?)

Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 19:35

good luck with that move.

On the 85th year
ID: 10344614
Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 19:36

thats just what i did dangelo for mm. took my 500k and ran...

Rendle
Donor
ID: 189102723
Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 20:08

Mora is definitely the man. I'm buying him now x5. Everyone else should do the same!!!!!!!

Taxman
Leader
ID: 1316217
Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 20:25

This thread would be more appealing without the name of Mora in the title. Reminds way to much of shlock seen @ TSN boards when author is blatantly advertising players held/have sold to the lemmings. That's a lot of the reason I don't ever go to the TSN boards, but it appears that the TSN boards have found us as this is only one of two threads bearing a players name by On the 85th year. I will avoid his threads in the future.

Rand
Donor
ID: 364152215
Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 21:46

ugh X2.

Farn
Donor
ID: 7822711
Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 22:58

how do i clear my cookie so i can rate this again?

Khahan @home
ID: 310231215
Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 23:06

I'm not even playing TSN this year, but I think I'd stay away from Mora. Yeah, they start a 3 game set vs Detroit. But then they go to KC. Back to detroit, then back to KC.
Detroit to Tampa BAy to Detroit to Tampa Bay would be favorable. But having every other series against a team playing like KC is...nobody in their right mind would call that favorable. Stop trying to hype players. It doesn't work on these boards anyway.

J
Leader
ID: 49346417
Sun, Apr 27, 2003, 00:30

I think you guys are over-reacting a little.

Mora sarts out to the 5th best SS over 15 days (12.6PPG) and an even better 17.1 over 7 days. (Not including today's game)

He's a guy you can use at SS or in the OF (and 2B apparently?). Thats pretty valuable. 2 pretty credible gurupies were passing along the name of Mora to me a few days ago. Including one who finished in the top 5 last year.

wiggs
Donor
ID: 10261612
Sun, Apr 27, 2003, 01:24

i am just going to start listing all my players so people start picking them up. So many people just pick up anyone whos name is mentioned. I dont care though, all the morons that trade out of quality players because people start stupid trades will just lose out on quality points. Ex Mike MacDougal.

On the 85th year
ID: 10344614
Sun, Apr 27, 2003, 07:43

Its unfortunate that some are offended by this discussion, it okay for the PP to right a "Dear John" letter to Runny Elvis, (if that was not his death wish I don't know what was). But others take offense to one providing a heads up on an undervalued opportunity. This is a buy low sell high environment. The hypocrisy rife throughout these boards is amazing.

I appreciate the code of ethics that are woven into the fabric of this forum. But at times some (read - ol' time members) nead to get with the times and not be so critical of an original idea.

Rogue Nine
ID: 363382623
Sun, Apr 27, 2003, 08:41

There have always been Player X -> ???? type threads, and those can get tiresome. While this thread may or may not be in that catagory, (I'm leaning towards no, since I think Mora could have value) the older members of the board have seen it enough times to be a bit disgruntled about it. Just ignore it I guess.

Oh, and welcome to Rotoguru. :)

jedman
Sustainer
ID: 503141122
Sun, Apr 27, 2003, 09:47

Having been around here for a few years I think people are getting way too sensitive to posts hyping a player. Certainly those who don't want to read it can skip it, but how else are we going to generate some player discussion? I haven't noticed that there are so many threads that it becomes hard to navigate through them. The ones of no interest fall to the bottom very quickly. I hadn't noticed Mora at all. I'm not saying I'm going to run out and get him because of this post, but it will lead me to investigate on my own and make my own decision. Personally, I don't like the Player Speculation thread, I find that much more difficult to wade through and pick up any information.

Richard
Leader
ID: 5410352713
Sun, Apr 27, 2003, 10:58

I'm not quite sure how Mora will turn into a money train without a few more days of great games. He won't really start making money until he finds his way on to the money gainers list. I haven't seen him on that list yet and I don't expect him to be there today. Perhaps in a day or two. Perhaps never.

The only real way to find him (unless ESPN is hyping him on Baseball Tonight) is to look at Guru's sortibles. He shows up great on the 7-day sort but it's hard to find him on the longer term sorts. He just hasn't generated enough points yet (218 ytd) to garner a whole lot of excitement.

If you jump on now, you'll definately be among the first to board the train. You'll get the good seats. However, you might find out that the train never leaves the station.

I'm holding off for now, but, I do appreciate the mention of his name and the discussion he's generated.

Richard

Ender
ID: 13443221
Sun, Apr 27, 2003, 11:13

This post may just generate more good 'ol buy talk, but I agree with jedman. At first I thought the Player Speculation thread was a good idea. I'm not to the point where I think it's a bad idea, but it is harder to wade through that I anticipated.

I guess I don't mind someone starting a thread about a player because I can choose to read it or not to read it. There is always a fear that there will be 100 of those threads clogging up the boards, but I don't see that happening.

I even think sometimes these threads are a good starting point for discussion, especially when some analysis is provided up front. I'd like to see a bit more than what was initially offered in this one, but at least it was better than "Buy him, he's great" We have had some very good analysis and dicsussion that initially started out as a thread about a single player.

Strike One
ID: 356372421
Sun, Apr 27, 2003, 11:27

The problem with this thread, imho, is that the thread was started with only one sentence. With an unproven offensive history like Mora has, you gotta give us more info on him, sortible info, schedule info, mora compared to the other popular options at his posistion, etc.

It's not required, but when people see that you've put in a litle time into a post, they're more likely to put a little time into a repsonse.

rockfish
ID: 43105722
Sun, Apr 27, 2003, 11:34

I added Mora on a couple of teams when I had to dump Bradley,low ownership and multi-positional plus he is posting some points. The term train gets thrown around alot,a train to me is someone who rises for weeks not just a few days. I picked up Mora short term to help in the upcoming week when I may have to jump off some "trains".

I did notice Mora is listed in TSN's top players for 7 and 14 days,which will affect his buys. In fact that feature "top players" seems to be a big influence on price movement.

rockafellerskank
Leader
ID: 461124288
Sun, Apr 27, 2003, 11:35

Just a comment in general:

There are many games other than TSN. Mora could be an option to fill in nicely in a roto league. I believe he was over 15/15 HR/SB last year. If you have a slumping layer (Spivey) or an injury (Jeter), he could be a nice fill in.

darkside
Leader
ID: 5631179
Sun, Apr 27, 2003, 12:07

I got Mora on Thursday cause I needed someone cheap, flexible, and relatively unowned who gets ab's. Mora, with Segui and Cordova on the DL, fits that nicely and has given me good points which is a great bonus. If people don't like the 'hype' this thread could produce--ignore it. But to come in here and act as if this is idiotic and show such open and obvious disdain is, IMO, childish. Obviously, if you're so smart to avoid such stupidity, you'll be ahead of us anyway, so why do you care?

This is directed at no one in particular, just the general tone of 'it's dumb to do this because i think so'.

wiggs
Donor
ID: 10261612
Sun, Apr 27, 2003, 12:20

i wasnt real happy with PPs post about runny either. Why would anyone sell a guy averaging almost 100 points a start for 2.44 million dollars except that someone said we are selling and there will be a major drop off. next 5 straight days. Is that because he did bad or someone started a thread?

Farn
Donor
ID: 7822711
Sun, Apr 27, 2003, 12:26

like I have said before individual threads like these at a well respected board can cause major damage. If they are started with some good analysis (ie. sortable stats info, trends, etc) it can be a great thread. But threads that start by saying "he had a good day yesterday; has some speed, CHOO CHOO" are a waste.

I have had Mora on my radar for a week now. But threads like these can turn this game into a follow the leader or be buried atmosphere. At least put some good data or analysis in your post if you are gonna start a thread with the purpose of jacking up your RV.

Catfish
Sustainer
ID: 123591217
Sun, Apr 27, 2003, 12:46

It's April. Best way to make RV at the start of the season is to follow lemming moves. Many people seem to have had Mora on their radar screens in the past few days.

Some managers will make Mora moves based on a thread like this but most are going to do their own analysis as well. Maybe it validates some picks you were already considering.

Is Mora going to be a season-long stud? I doubt it. But buying and selling players based on trainspotting isn't damage, it's the April game.

Khahan @ home
ID: 41117420
Sun, Apr 27, 2003, 12:52

85th, with regards to your comparison of this thread to the runylves thread.
Most people here recognized that Runny had run his course as far as $$$ go and it was time to move out of him. They were not hyping a player. They were not telling people who to go to so they can generate the next train. They were simply pointing out that the Runny train was derailing and letting the individual either start discussion on where to go next or do some research on where to go next.
In the case of this thread, its main purpose seemed to be to generate a train of its own. No real discussion was given on why. Hyping a 'favorable schedule' and 1 game of big points and then ending your post with "choo-choo?" was a tell tale sign of mere hype.
Sometimes its not necessarily what you do, but how you do it. I'm not doing TSN this year, but I've done it in the past and I've had my share of discussion on this topic. Most of them were from your side. I just learned that on these boards, statistical data and your own research go a lot further than simply throwing out names with a few vague reasons on why you think he'll be the next choo-choo.

On the 85th year
ID: 10344614
Sun, Apr 27, 2003, 14:56

Appreciate everyone’s opinion. Looks like those of us who got on, were early in, as he WAS on the money gainers for today. Already a 20tsnp today so the train should chug.

My mistake ending with choo-choo, that was not necessary.

But again, PP post on Elvis was far more impact-ful for a 30% owned player, whereas I'm talking about a 1%er... PP was pure sensationalism. Albeit a harbinger of things to come.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Apr 27, 2003, 15:15

Before too many others get their knickers in a twist...

There are valid concerns on both sides of this issue.

1. There is no harm in recognizing a player (or a trend) that might not have been widely noticed. Clearly, Jimenez was going to be a problem for a lot of teams soon, and Mora is a reasonable alternative - and one that I had not yet noticed, although I might have found once I got serious about looking for a replacement.

2. Most us of would prefer that this forum maintain a higher quality of posts and discussions than that found in other fantasy sports forums, including the TSN forum. When a relative newcomer starts a thread with an all capitalized title (MORA), and offers little analysis other than "I picked him up,... steals, power, Choo-choo", red flags are raised. It is natural for those who value the forum - paricularly the old timers - to react negatively. Sometimes the reactions come across as rather snippy or elitist, even if the poster is really trying to provide some constructive feedback. Sometimes, the constructive feedback is not present. And sometimes, overly exuberant newcomers get a little too testy when their efforts are criticized.

3. Many times, old timers are given much greater latitude from others in reacting to posts that might otherwise seem to lack substance. This is natural. Long time posters are generally judged based up the breadth of their contributions over the years. A new post that might seem to lack substance is going to naturally be viewed differently by those who have a great deal of experience with the poster, as opposed to those who do not. Thus, it may seem that old timers are given greater respect.

Old timers who have earned respect should be given respect. That is as it should be. And newcomers should recognize that when they have had the opportunity to demonstrate their value to the forum they will also be judged on the entirety of their contributions. Those who add value will be accepted, and those who add noise will be coached and sometimes berated.

Every season, there has been an influx of new users, and some loss of experienced users. We need to accept and encourage newcomers without being overly judgmental, at least until they have had a chance to acclimate themselves to the forum standards. Those who are interested in fitting in will adapt; most of those who are not will gradually fade away. But the forum needs, and seeks, new blood to keep its vitality.

Thus, old timers are asked to be patient with newcomers, and to try to coach them (and set a good example) when they fail to understand the nature of this forum. And newcomers are asked to be less sensitive to constructive criticisms, especially since the tone of a written post is often difficult to interpret.

As to this particular thread, I have no problem with it begin created as a separate thread. It would have attracted greater respect had it been titled "What to do with D'Angelo Jimenez?", and the opening post might have had a little more substance and a little less jingo. But the forum has not (yet) gotten so cluttered that we can't afford threads with a focused "train" of thought.

I'll shut up now.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Apr 27, 2003, 15:37

OK, maybe I won't shut up just yet.

I reject the notion that, just because people post hype here, either promoting a buy or sell, that people are indiscrimately acting on those posts, and that trains are being created or derailed as a result.

Runelvys Hernandez was going to drop this week regardless of the post by Pink Pimp.

Not long ago we had a post which suggested that Blalock was due to crash. Anyone who sold based solely on that "hype" has missed out on his continued gains.

I have no doubt that some people trade without much thought. But I don't not believe that this forum causes people to make massive, irrational moves.

Taxman
Leader
ID: 29463114
Sun, Apr 27, 2003, 15:49

Well said Guru. I sometimes forget how appropriate your handle is. Yours is a needed voice and, thankfully, one which is always promoting continued use of these boards by newbies as well as the grizzled old vets, each bringing a potential value.

On the 85th year
ID: 10344614
Sun, Apr 27, 2003, 16:06

Thanks Guru, glad to be here, and I'll keep your thoughts in mind for future posts.

On the 85th year
ID: 10344614
Sun, Apr 27, 2003, 19:29

Looks like this board got the scoop 24 hours before the experts.......

Update from The Sporting News Fantasy Source: Apr 27 05:10pm
Mora has been one of the hottest hitters in the game this week. After sitting out two games, he was hitting .136 coming into last Sunday's contest against Tampa Bay. Since the start of that game, he has gone 10-for-26 (.385) with three home runs, six RBIs and a steal.
Fantasy Spin: Mora's versatility had been useless in the opening weeks of the season because his weak bat prevented him from being in most fantasy lineups. His average is up to .271 and it might be time to get this utility player back in the lineup in deeper leagues. He plays the Tigers and Royals this week. (Rob Hurtt/TSN)

I hate when they HYPE players... LOL

The Pink Pimp
ID: 40302513
Sun, Apr 27, 2003, 22:56

I come home from work today expecting to see an action thread containing the usual "Millwood's pitching pretty well, Might want to check it out" post. Which would be closely followed by the "Millwood's got a nohitter going!" post. Which would then lead to the predictable debate about commenting on a no hitter that is in progress and the usual degeneration citing ESPN precedent etc.

Instead I find 50 votes on a Mora thread and while checking inside I read that a few people think my earlier Runny thread may have actually caused Runny's value to crash. So please permit me to respond to that idea.

That's like saying that the weatherman causes the weather.

When the guy on T.V. says its going to rain on the weekend, that doesn't make the raindrops fall. When the humidity is high and a cold front moves through, guess what happens? It rains.

I don't think that I'm a market maker, just a guy who can spot a money trend every now and then, especially when I'm looking for it and its as glaring as Runny's impending drop was. Heck I didn't even know who I was going to replace Runny with until Loaiza came through.

I wish I could forsee point earners as well as I can see money earners. Because then I'd have a WWR of #3, Which is where my "money" team is right now. And if I had drafted or picked up Blalock instead of Pujols I'd be at #1.

Now a few people have throw some pitches at me. Not quite at my head, but certainly at my back. And just like in the bigs, they are going to have to take the brushback in return. So lean into the plate 'cause here it comes.

wiggs - First off, props to you on the job you've done with your team. But I have to take issue with your post #25. You said, "i wasnt real happy with PPs post about runny either. Why would anyone sell a guy averaging almost 100 points a start for 2.44 million dollars except that someone said we are selling and there will be a major drop off. next 5 straight days. Is that because he did bad or someone started a thread?"

Runny dropped because most managers bought him for the cash, not the points. When the cash gains stopped, it was a foregone conclusion that these cash motivated managers would sell Runny and pick up someone else. The flat buy-ins and the refreshing of trades started the bleeding and then you had a choice. Trade out, avoid dollar losses, and make money elsewhere, or climb in the "I'm holding Runny bunker" and eat the losses while deriving comfort from the fact that you saved a trade and are still getting good point production for his price.

The cause of the Runny sells was that the cash gains stopped coming and that ownership had reached the ceiling leaving his price nowhere to go but down. It was not my post so quit blaming me for the fact that you were "forced" to make the trade.

On the 85th year - You get a few balls in the back - one for "Its unfortunate that some are offended by this discussion, it okay for the PP to right a "Dear John" letter to Runny Elvis, (if that was not his death wish I don't know what was). But others take offense to one providing a heads up on an undervalued opportunity. This is a buy low sell high environment. The hypocrisy rife throughout these boards is amazing."

Again I'm accused of causing Runny's price fall. I've already refuted that so let me throw another one you way for the following, "But again, PP post on Elvis was far more impact-ful for a 30% owned player, whereas I'm talking about a 1%er... PP was pure sensationalism. Albeit a harbinger of things to come."

First off, Elvis was at damn near 50% ownership. And second, it wasn't sensationalism, it was fact. Just because you read it as hype doesn't make it so. You seem to be saying that it was almost accidental that what I predicted came to pass. Nope, not even close.

So now that I've plunked a few, let the benches clear and with a mighty cry of " " we'll all meet on the mound and see if we feel like fighting. Hopefully you'll realize that I'm just throwing the high hard one back your way like any good pitcher should. :-)

blade
ID: 173282717
Sun, Apr 27, 2003, 23:10

anyone who thinks TPP's thread caused Runny's crash is very misguided. of course he had to go down, nobody else was going to buy him. in the free game of years back he probably would have kept going up because there was an infusion of new managers on a daily basis who could have purchased him.

Jags
ID: 103362515
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 02:14

I agree with PP...Elvys was on borrowed time and I understood the header as,quite simply "I traded out of him".The post itself was very well thought out and an entertaining read,I believe. As for 85's thread,to me it came across as "Mora's hot,I just bought him..why doesn't everyone else buy him so I/we can benefit". Was exactly the type of thread I see 20 times a night on TSN boards. Having said that, I just traded Jimenez into Mora(on one team only)..hope i'm not being too much of a lemming.
JMO

On the 85th year
ID: 10344614
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 07:41

TPP, I have no problem personally with your post on Elvis, only as reference to the hypocrisy on this board at times. It's okay to send a guy packing and generate 100+ posts, but not okay to spot a trend on the positive side. I was not shooting the messenger, in fact agreed with the message and the timing was precise. On another note, great job on the 4 day average chart, in act I have a question, please review posts. Again, hope no further offense taken.. let's move on? Congrats, on being #3 for RV, with those trades 4 & 2, you are poised for a RUN, good luck, hope you take 2nd place!!

wiggs
Donor
ID: 40331287
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 09:50

PP, my point is how many people have said that they will buy a player and hold him for the whole season unless there is an injury? I know i have read it throughout these threads numerous times. I guess the question is, who decides when a player is a hold or a train? He (runny) has put up great numbers every start for his price, why not just sit on him and save some trades? If everyone holds then there will be no price change and i dont think if it wasnt mentioned in a thread then no one would have moved out of him. all in all I guess i dont like when i do alot of research on things and find what i think is a steal of a player, like i did with runny, and then have a random thread force me into trading him or taking a major money hit. I hope you understand my point, it is nothing personal against you.

beastiemiked
Sustainer
ID: 29145419
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 09:55

wiggs, even before his start on 4/22 most people I talked to planned on trading out of Runny. PP's thread may have opened a few people's eyes ,but I think for the most part people had made the trade(not literally) even before Runny had made his start.

Ender
ID: 45114615
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 10:02

The 4/18 through 4/22 price changes were the cue to sell, not PP's thread. He saw the same trend most of the rest of us saw. He's just the one that posted a thread about it. It was going to happen. He just saved some people a day or 2 of losses.

cancermoon
ID: 36347284
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 10:04

Well I have no trouble with PP's thread, but I would love to know how many unique dayly hits Rotoguru.com gets each day, as if it is high, obviously far more lurkers than posters, then possibly his post did have an affect.

I once was watching a stock board, a stupid ass came on with a post stating some bull$hit about a company being sued or something, 10 minutes later the stock had bombed 70%, and 1 hour later it was offcially released that this message was a hoax. It just shows how messageboard comments can do damage, especially if after reading PP's thread they then see someone else say they must sell because everyone else on the board will also be selling, like a self fulfilling prophecy really.

I do know a lot of smart managers would have sold him at that point, but in my experience not many managers are that smart, just check the teams in your division to find that out. These types of people don't make such clever and well timed moves, but they do follow like sheep if it is pounded into their heads by the messageboards.

Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 10:21

On the 85th year,

Sorry if any of this has already been said. You don't seem to realize that the nature of any successful forum is such that it has many voices. There are numerous conflicting philosophies regarding best practices for posting behavior and thread management. Guru and some of the other graybeards have formed a
Forum Standards forum to try to keep a reference for some of the established and suggested "rules" here.

Understand that there will always be disagreements such as the one in this thread about what should be posted regarding player trend observations and musings/predictions about points and cash production that will result. But varying opinions about what we should post is not hypocracy. Saying that it is suggests that Rotoguru is a single entity thinking with one brain, and nothing could be further from the truth.

I noticed some time ago, sometime after I first started using this forum, that threads hyping players and predicting the downfall of players started popping up with ridiculous frequency. Seemed every day there were 4 or 5 new threads with titles like Next Train: Mark Quinn and Todd Helton -> ???. I remember during Pujols' rookie season when he was the most widely held player from May pretty much through season's end, there were several periods where threads would incessantly pop up predicting his selloff and musing/hyping potential replacements. I never saw these types of threads as much of an issue until it got to the point where the board was so dominated with them that sorting through them became a problem. The worst thing about them was that they were rarely any more informative than what was read in the thread title itself, effectively making it no more than a waste of space. But I don't know if that is a problem that is happening this year. Maybe, but IMO some players do deserve enough extra speculation that they warrant their own thread. Whether the position is popular or not, I don't see anything wrong with the Runnelvys thread or with what I believe this one was intended to be.

But I also think you are misunderstanding some of the criticism. The thread title, "MORA (Next train)", followed by very little in the way of information regarding the player to justify the title comes off very much like those unending and often pointless threads that would pop up en masse (often multiple ones by the same person). Part of the negativity here is unwarranted, but some is surely intended to discourage you and other people from creating posts like this because, as I said, when they become too frequent, they become an annoyance. I doubt I am in the minority in personally encouraging as much speculative discourse as people are willing to offer. That being the case, I think threads like these go over much better when they are accompanied by extensive reasoning. With regard to these types of posts, if all you have to say is less than two total lines of text, there is no reason to start a new thread, as there are numerous aplicable places you could stick such speculation to generate a response. I believe that most people who frequent this forum do skim through most of the threads. Your message will be read. If it doesn't get a response, it does not mean that no one read it, only that no one cared to comment. Typically, the more thought, information and speculation you put into a post, the better respone it will attract. That is true with both new threads and posts within existing ones.

Hope this helps.

StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 4431816
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 10:29

TSN's message about Mora (#34) shows why such posts should be cautiously evaluated instead of taken at face value. His weak bat did not prevent him from being in most lineups, it was the fact that he was not even a starter, and still isn't. Right now he is starting because of a hot bat and injuries. If this train does get rolling, I would be ready for a sudden stop as well.

I do have Mora in roto and he is doing quite well there.

And unless things have changed considerably since I last played, a message on RotoGuru about a player does not have a drastic effect on price in TSN. Gurupies are a small fraction of total managers. Much more likely that the TSN message board has more direct influence on player movement and prices. Just my $.02.

Go Easy
Donor
ID: 45352412
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 13:25

I'm basically a lurker posting occassionally and donating to the site about as much. I have several friends that lurk and have not posted but that will soon come. My point is, we (my lurker friends), discussed the night before the PP post that the R-elvis $$$ drop would be the case. The post and drop was inevitable. Just wish I would have posted it so everyone thought it was me who caused the land slide:)

The Pink Pimp
ID: 59346179
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 23:42

On the 85th year ,
I know its not personal just as I'm sure you know my
response wasn't either. Next time our teams face each
other I'm sure there won't be any beanballs. And I
imagine the next time you post a heads up thread you'll
probably do so in a slightly different fashion then this
one. I have to admit I did consider Mora (after being
alerted to him by this thread) for a team where I have
Clayton at SS but decided that I didn't have the trades
to pull it off.

Wiggs,
On the otherhand we may still be throwing beanballs...
I'm not sure what to make of this sentence "all in all I
guess i dont like when i do alot of research on things
and find what i think is a steal of a player, like i did with
runny, and then have a random thread force me into
trading him or taking a major money hit. " It seems like
you still think that my Runny thread was the "random"
event that triggered the sell off.

Now if I had been spamming the boards with false info
about an injury or posting on TSN's message board as
well then you might have a point.

In fact I thought that Runny's drop was such a foregone
conclusion that my post was intended to be equal parts
humor and heads up. The cow had already left the
barn, I just was telling a few of the farmers that it was
gone.

So in my book (which counts for very little) you are just
wrong on this issue (as I'm sure I am wrong in yours)
and I'm ready to move on.

Play Ball!!

Ender
ID: 13443221
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 23:50

I have to admit when I first read the Runy thread I thought "Everybody already knows that. What's the big deal?" I took for exactly what PP said in that last post "In fact I thought that Runny's drop was such a foregone conclusion that my post was intended to be equal parts humor and heads up." I guess I just don't see it as the straw that broke the camel's back or the ride of Paul Revere.

'85, there was nothing wrong with your observation. It was just the way you presented it. It's a self-policing forum. Take all the suggestions in the spirit in which they were intended and just offer some analysis and thought and a better title, that's all. I bought Mora on a few teams myself yesterday when I sold Jimenez from the SS position.

wiggs
Donor
ID: 10261612
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 00:43

pp. so what you are saying is i could start a thread right now saying that clemens will be the next train and i bet you anything that the clemens buy rate will shoot up. i dont think that is it right to go look for a player that have made alot of money and say he should be sold for someone I have. it just triggers a mass selloff.

Someone said it best in a different thread, there are alot of lurkers out there that dont post but do read everything that is written and when they see there is talk about someone dropping and someone else rising they jump on it immediately.

Rogue Nine
ID: 363382623
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 03:06

Wiggs, give it a try. Go hype a 2-4 mil player who has been doing ok, and lets see if we can create enough hype to get him on the gainers list. If you do manage to do it, I'd be pretty surprised.

Fact is, the Runny drop was happening anyway. You seem to want to ignore this. Had PP not written his thread, Runny would have been gone for Loaiza anyway on many teams, and you still would have been 'forced' to move him. You would have us never create threads about anyone, on the off chance that others might read it and buy/sell that player. So what is the point of this messege board then? If we're not supposed to talk about players, are we all supposed to be quiet when we have questions or thoughts on a player/train/matchup?

I really would like you to hype someone in another thread. Lets see what Rotoguru's influence really is. I'm putting my money on it being minimal, if at all exsistant. We have what, maybe 50 regular posters here? Lurkers might bump it up to 100-150. With 17000 teams (likely around 7000 owners) thats a shade over 2% of the players.

cancermoon
ID: 36347284
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 03:22

I don't think the thread title would cause any dump, just one persosn opinion, but since it encourages everyone else to pop in and say how they are selling this person on all their five teams, and then another and another and another person, soon enough all those that even were determined to hold soon give up and sell, as they see the mass carnage bilding like a snow ball, encouraging more and more people to sell. I have no problem with PP's thread though, but lemmings are sheep and need suggestions made to them, they don't think of things for themselves.

farbermania
ID: 153232112
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 09:02

Wiggs,
I don't know how long you've been in this game, but all the hard "research" you did to find a "steal of a player" such as Runny was a day late and a dollar short. Part of winning this game, as in EVERY game, is being one step ahead of your opponents. Whatever analysis you did on Runny obviously didn't include his LARGE price increases over a SHORT period of time. It also must not have included the HISTORY of what happened to other players in the same position. Runny IS UNPROVEN! He's a house of cards that is build to high. Nobody wants to be the last guy holding him when he finally implodes. One bad start. That's all it'll take. People on these boards are people who have been burned before, and care enough about making the game more interesting to try to help keep others from being burned.
This is an educationally-competitive thread. Which means, posts here are meant to increase knowledge and better the competition.
The people who post here aren't GOD. They can neither see the future, nor force the outcome of what will happen. That's what we like to call SPEC-U-LA-TION.
I am one of those people who have "lurked" on these boards for years. I only recently started posting because I've learned so much from these boards that I want to give back (although, I havn't had the guts to start my own thread yet). I don't take seriously every thread I've read on these boards. Sometimes it's paid off, other times I paid for it. I, for one, am not the least bit interested in Mora. He can't offer any of my teams anything that I want out of a player. I don't think he'll be the next trian, and if I'm wrong, then I'll board late and try to gain some more RV.
You are basically accusing people in this forum of cheating. Stand down, brother, cause that just ain't true.

Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 09:15

Wiggs,
it just triggers a mass selloff.

You could not be more wrong. Cases in point:

April 25th, On the 85th year titles a thread; "Anbody considering Jorge Julio?(speculation)". The text in the subject field;

"Very favorable schedule approaching, he's been rock solid for the last 2 weeks. I may go that direction pending the Macdougal scenario"

Well, MacDougal actually had started leaking money the day before, but Julio gained nada, not a single dollar following that post or anytime since.
======================================

April 21st, Pink Pimp creates his "D'Angelo Jimenez = Bullet Train" thread. The text in this one:

Why is D'Angelo a Bullet Train?

Because his multi position elegibility ensures that he
will gain value much faster than an identical player with
only one position.

His overall rankings based on TSNP:
#2 at 2nd base
#1 at 3rd base
#1 at shortstop

And he's still cheap at $2.8 million.

He's an interesting test case because he's the first
cheap player to be at the top in multiple positions
(excluding DH). But I think the storm of buys that will
result from this confluence will also have other possibly
unforseen effects.

He is going to get so many buys so quickly that his
gains might be flattened out by the pricing algorithm
each day and that might lead to repucussions when its
time to sell. If his gains do get flattened, then the
possibility exists that a gradual sell off could lower him
well below his current price.

He's been gaining value steadily but now the buys are
coming in droves. Unlike a player who has slow steady
increases as does Soriano, D'Angelo's gains are now
going through the roof.

If you aren't on this train yet, you better hop on now if
you want a piece of the action because come Thursday
he could be $400 to $500 or higher higher in price. And
If Blalock derails soon (which he shows no sign of
doing however) the effect is only going to increase.

What happened? Well D'Angelo had already made some $490k over the previous 12 days, but PP's added hype did not seem to boost the already moving train. He'd made $120k on 4/20 (the day before the thread was posted) and $140k on 4/21, several hours after the thread creation. But blaming the Pimp for the extra $20k doesn't seem too logical, as Jimenez had put up 43, 38 and 38 points in the three days prior and had gone up 20k, 30k, 50k, and 120k in the 4 days prior. Of course he was going to continue to accellerate!
======================================

April 13th, mtpoke25 starts a thread titled, "4/13 Trades - Blalock for ??", with the following in the subject field;

"I am going to trade Blalock on all 3 of my teams tomorrow morning. He appears to have peaked, so I am going to take the $900K and run. Am I safe to assume that many others are doing the same? If so, who is the next TRAIN that people are jumping on? Helton appears nice, but you gotta have the $$. I am going to go with Baldelli from TB on at least one team. Any other ideas?"

Blalock did not lose any cash the next day or on any day since. In fact, he has risen another $400k since then.

wiggs
Donor
ID: 10261612
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 09:38

farbermania ,
Nobody wants to be the last guy holding him when he finally implodes. One bad start. That's all it'll take. you are absolutely right. can you please tell me when his bad start was as i must have missed it.

You are basically accusing people in this forum of cheating. Stand down, brother, cause that just ain't true. I have accused no one of cheating, i simply said i didnt like it. Am i not allowed to have an opinion?

As far as how long i have been playing this game, this is my first ultimate team but i did the basic last season. My thoughts on how to win this game would include not wasting trades on players that are still playing well and making money so it bothered me to be forced into making a move that i didnt want to do. I already had Loiaza along with Runny so that move wouldnt have been automatic for me. I am not trying to create any problems here, but i thought the whole point of the thread was to give opinions.

Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 09:46

I have accused no one of cheating, i simply said i didnt like it. Am i not allowed to have an opinion?

Sure you're allowed, but your opinion is wrong. Threads like Pimp's and this one can not possibly have a significant effect on the trading habits of the masss, much less trigger a major selloff.

wiggs
Donor
ID: 10261612
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 09:52

MITH, if that is the case then mussina should fall off the table with his price when? must be soon, he has gone up close to a million so the market must be close to saturated. It shouldnt require a bad start or a thread, he should just start losing money soon, correct?

J
Leader
ID: 49346417
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 09:54

I dont know how you can say someone's opinion is wrong. He's allowed whatever opinion he wants.

If PP never started that thread, the only difference is, Runny would've started to go down in price and a few more people may have been shocked when 12:01pm rolled around.

A thread on these boards has NO power to control any price movers (as has been well known for a while now).

wiggs
Donor
ID: 10261612
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 09:55

and Loiaza is up over 1.5 mill why hasnt his sell off begun? he is unproven.

wiggs
Donor
ID: 10261612
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 09:57

J I agree with you that he would have leaked down in price, but i was hoping to hold for atleast 1 more start. With out the thread, i would have never consided moving until i saw his price take a decent hit. I could have dealt with losing 20-30 K for an 80 point start, but when the drops were going 130K i was forced along with many others to jump ship immediately.

Khahan
ID: 3127107
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 10:00

Wiggs, with regards to Mussina, he's the type of player people in the TSN game will hold onto over a longer period of time, sometimes despite a bad start or two. He's proven in the past that in any given game he can pitch a masterpiece.
That's the difference between Runny and Mussina...stability. Which is also why Mussina costs so much more to begin with.
As for Loaiza, he is proven. He's proven to be the winningest pitcher in April over the past few years. More April wins than Randy. More than Pedro. More than Curt. More than Mussina. More than any other pitcher (at least the past 2-3 years). Last I checked it the calender it was still April. ;) He's got a bit of time left.

rockafellerskank
Leader
ID: 461124288
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 10:01

Loiaza's price will react like Runny's sometime after his next start in my OPINION, even if he puts up a good game. Don't get mad at me for saying so. In this game, "selling high" is part of the game whether it's logical or not. There are always going to be "forced sells" because of irrational mass sells. There were last year too -- remember Padilla going down while he was still pithing well?

At least the direction of this thread has taken an interesting turn (from a discussion point). Can "hype" from secondary message boards influence price? I'll bet this thread doesn't cause Mora to rise. 1 bad game and he will crach despite the "hype" in this thread (in my opinion).

Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 10:12

Runelvys had a 46 point game on 4/16 with massive ownership and the selloff happened immediately after. Why can't you grasp that? Would the same happen to Mussina? I don't know, my guess is it would happen to a lesser extent, but comparing them is completely moot. Mussina is a 12 year veteran and multiple all star on the team that scores more runs than anyone. If you can't understand why the masses might exhibit more confidence in him and thus be more forgiving of a single bad outing than an overachieving rookie they never heard of until a few months ago who plays on an overachieving team that everyone expected to be firmly entrenched in the cellar by now, I don't know what to tell you.

You are basing too much of your opinion of the intelligence and knowlege of the masses on your experience in basic. They are a different class of player playing a more competetive game. In ultimate, people shell out $20 and tend to pay more attention and generally be more informed, making them a better and more competetive class of fantasy managers. Consider that most peope playing this game - even non gurupies have considerably more experience than you in it. That's not a knock on you - on the contrary you've done commendably well in your first month, even better that most gurupies, but you don't seem to have entirely grasped the nature of some of the price movements yet. Note the number of veterans who are not phazed by by 'Elvys' price drop. You may not like the strategic forces of the consensus of the masses that caused his price to drop, you may even consider it a flaw in the game, but believe me, it has nothing to do with this forum.

Rogue Nine
ID: 363382623
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 10:20

Runny's drop also happened to coincide with Loaiza being there, with his 4 straight 100+ TSNP scores, his very similar price (200K cheaper I believe) and his already rising price. Everyone knew Loazia would go up, people with Runny were nervous, and the very obvious happened.

Now we have two new trains in Loazia and Chacon who are going to do the exact same thing. Weather or not the drop is as obvious as Runny will have alot to do with potential options. Maybe people will move back into Runny. But what if Runny gets shelled to the tune of -50 TSNP? A lack of options may leave the masses holding. (Much like Blalock has done. A lack of good cheapie options at 3B is preventing a massive selloff right now.)

Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 10:25

Exctly, Rogue. There were simply too many factors working against Runny. First poor outing, natural lack of security that comes with any rookie, everyone waiting for his whole overachieving team to come back to earth in a fiery crash, the quiet emergence of Loaiza as someone to seemlessly shift into. It wasn't hard to predict.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 10:29

Wealth creation patterns are significantly different in the Ultimate game vs. the Basic game. Note that Runy's price is still going up in the Basic game. The obvious reason is the ongoing creation of new teams in the Basic game which provides an avenue for heavily owned players to continually be bought.

Player price gains will top off much sooner in the Ultimate game. $2 million is about as much as a player has achieved, at least without some pullback. Loaiza will achieve that by the time of his next start. If he tops 100 TSNP again, he'll probably survive for another start. But he is definitely someone to be wary of. Expect his pace of gains to begin to subside in the next few days as well.

farbermania
ID: 153232112
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 10:30

Wiggs,

"can you please tell me when his bad start was as i must have missed it."

My point is not that he had a bad start, but he will, and people who have played for a while know that they are going to get caught in the cold with their pants down if they don't get out now.

RE: "I have accused no one of cheating"

Post #14: "So many people just pick up anyone whos name is mentioned."

Post #25: "Why would anyone sell (Runny). . .except that someone said we are selling and there will be a major drop off."

Post #39: "I guess the question is, who decides when a player is a hold or a train?" AND "and then have a random thread force me into trading him or taking a major money hit."

Post #48: "I dont think that is it right to go look for a player that have made alot of money and say he should be sold for someone I have. it just triggers a mass selloff."

Whether you know it or not you are insinuating two things by these posts:

1) That people on these posts, and the things they write have the power to "force" people to make trades or face serious RV loss by not complying

AND. . .

2) That people are willing to use that power as an advantage to manipulate the masses (i.e. cheating).

This is not Star Trek: The Next Generation, and we are not the Borg who have come to assimilate you into our singular conscience.

Look, do whatever the heck you wanna do. You opinon is just as valued as anyone's here (except for maybe Guru himself). But when your opinon smacks of accusations, you begin to bite the hand that feeds you.

What you don't seem to understand is that this is a MARKET based game. Remember what the Tech-stocks did in the mid-90's? Big companies bought a lot of stock in small, unproven companies that had no overhead. It made a lot of people rich in a short amount of time, but the market was HUGELY inflated. Then, it imploded on itself and LOTS of people lost a lot of money. All Tech stocks plummited. There were some that weathered the storm (yahoo, e-bay, etc.) and have come out strong on the other end.

Runny is the Tech stock, and there are too many of us who have been burned by this scenario in the past to let it happen to us again. We're getting out now. If he crashes, we win, if he doesn't, we catch him on his next upswing and ride his next, more stable wave.

The question is, is Runny and e-bay, or is he just a dirty, inflated, IPO? ONLY time will tell.

Texas Flood
Donor
ID: 40211014
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 10:38

Wow, 60+ posts on a thread entitled MORA(next train). This is not the Politics forum, lighten up, have fun, it's only a game. you guys can be way too serious at times.

StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 133252814
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 10:39

Forced sells due to lemmings has been a part of this game since the small world days. The ability to think like a lemming is what allows insightful managers like PP to predict (not cause) the selloff and capitalize on it.

Rogue Nine
ID: 363382623
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 10:50

TF, its just a discussion. More serious then others on the baseball forum, but still just a polite discussion.

Although, I had the same thought (Politics Forum) when I saw MITH's post. :)

Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 10:53

Sorry, can't help it.

:)

On the 85th year
ID: 10344614
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 11:07

OKAY, alright MORA is not a train, JEEEZZZZAAA, although he was $50 yesterday, maybe +60 today, LOL... lets end this thread!!!! Maybe I'll delete it!!

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 11:12

No, don't delete it. (If you do, I'll just restore it!) There are some good points in here.

On the 85th year
ID: 10344614
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 11:14

Good points? Yeah like a bunch of ol ladies drinkin gin-n-t's playin bridge...

J
Leader
ID: 49346417
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 11:23

Wiggs, I'm not saying he would've leaked, he still would've lost the same amount with or without the thread. I'm talking about 5 or 6 people here, inluding you obviously ;)

Bandos
Donor
ID: 422571916
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 11:45

Lets debate the merits of G-n-t's and playing bridge. If you have 13 points you can sell runny and avoid the money loss, if not, you ......

ukula
Donor
ID: 55340296
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 12:05

Considering the debate of $ versus points versus trades I think it would be interesting to come up with a calculation (for comparison purposes) to estimate the strength of each TSN team.

My thought is this (please make suggestions if you think the variables may be wrong):

Current TSNP + (RV * x * games remaining) + (PT * y) + (HT * z) = POTENTIAL

x = TSNP/EG/$mil (I was thinking 3.0 to start)
y = I was thinking 70 points
z = possibly 15 points if the trade was used for points only. The 15 points would come from an extra game from a quality player.

EXAMPLE: 3500 current TSNP, RV 58.0, PT 3, HT 2

3500 + (58*3*125) + (3*70) + (2*15) = 25,490

I didn't factor in any future trades since everyone would receive the same number and it would be a wash.

Khahan
ID: 3127107
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 12:57

Wow...damn I hate math.

Richard
ID: 10112315
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 14:12

As it turns out, it looks like a move to Marcus Giles instead of Mora would be getting you more dollars. Giles seems to be getting the lion's share of the move away from Jimenez. So far I'm glad I went that way instead of into Mora. Perhaps Mora is just a bit slow at gathering steam and might yet prove to be the better move than Giles but I doubt it.

Richard

Perm Dude
Leader
ID: 0059248
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 14:14

I'm sorry Richard, but your post was .027 over the "hype" meter. Soclose.

pd

:)

Astade
ID: 303521820
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 14:39

Ukula,

I think that you have a fairly close approximation for trying to incorporate pts, RV and trades.

However, what do you think about nesting the # of trades (HT and PT) into the RV slot too?
After all, optimally you can get pts and extra cash from trades that have been banked.

Just a thought...

Rogue Nine
ID: 363382623
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 14:54

Richard unfortunately for me I had Jiminez at SS. Giles wasn't an option. I wanted to get Giles in there, but Soriano mans 2B for me and likely will for a long time. :)

Richard
ID: 10112315
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 15:30

Rogue Nine - I was lucky, I had Soriano at DH and Jimenez at 2B so the swap Jimenez-> Giles was easy for me. I didn't need to, but I moved Soriano from DH into SS (where he'll stay for a while) and Giles is now, temporarily, my DH. I say temporarily, because I suspect the Giles ride will be fairly short and changing out the DH spot is quite flexible. I didn't need a SS change.

So far I'm making decent money by riding a couple of price gainers at pitcher and one price gainer at hitter. I don't want to juggle anymore than that since being caught without trades is a great way to put a broomstick in the spokes of the money making machine;-)

Richard

Richard
ID: 10112315
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 15:33

Damn - I should learn to proof-read. Soriano is sitting at 2B on my team (not SS as I originally wrote). Having him at SS would be quite a neat trick;-)

Richard

Caper
Donor
ID: 1535108
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 15:36

You got me to go and recheck his position elegibility. :)

mrbig
ID: 430582315
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 15:37

Doesn't Mora have a mini-train every year?!

wiggs
Donor
ID: 10261612
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 15:37

mith, Runelvys had a 46 point game on 4/16 with massive ownership and the selloff happened immediately after. Why can't you grasp that? if you look, he never hit negative money until 4/23 and on 4/22 he put up like 95 points i think. I dont know what what the definition of immediate is in your world, but a week doesnt seem like immediate to me.

farbermania, i am sorry you took my posts as accusations of cheating. i am not accusing anyone of cheating, if anything i think some people use the boards to better themselves and there are alot of lemmings that see someone post and immediately do whatever is said. i believe people can use the boards to say or do what they want within the guide lines of the rules, but i also have the right to say i dont like it if i dont. I would also still like to know who decides when a player is to be sold. For example, MacDougal is 10-11 on saves and there is a sell off. I see 10 saves this early as a great thing. Loiaza has to be about saturated how do you know when to sell if someone doesnt post?

Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 15:47

wiggs,
nobody told you about the 5 day pricing format? You're wrong when you say he did not lose money until 4/23. On 4/21 - 5 days after 4/16 - he lost $20k. This came after 4 consecutive days of gaining less and less money because fewer people were buying into him than were getting out. So, the buys that took place before 4/16 were having less effect on his price change each day until finally there was none. Countering the sells to a small degree were unsavvy players who apparently bought into his next start. That's why you see the $20k gain on 4/22, but obviously, there weren't too many of them because on 4/23 he lost $50k. Most people who had held through the initial loss were doing so to get the one last start out of him, and then bailed. But believe what you want. All the logic in the world and evidence in post 52 which you choose not to address obviously won't change your mind.

Rogue Nine
ID: 363382623
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 15:48

Loiaza has to be about saturated how do you know when to sell if someone doesnt post?

Well thats the key to it all, isn't it? Knowing when to sell. What most of us have been saying all along is that we knew when to sell Runny. PP's post didn't 'clue us in', we already knew. Just like we'll know with Loaiza. If he goes 3-4 days with no gains, its a given that people will get antsy sitting on a player who has gone up 2 mil and is now in the 0-10K daily range. If there is another good option (Runny possibly, damn he's getting cheap!) the move will be a no-brainer. If there isn't any great cheapie to move into, Loaiza will still drop, although alot more slowly. (I'd probably move him into either a closer or a mid-priced starter.) One thing you can bet on, I'll know when its time to dump him. Its the key to TSN's games, and if you try and fight the market-driven mentality you'll go nuts. Think like a day-trader, and consider your players as your stocks.

Rogue Nine
ID: 363382623
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 15:59

Richard, 81 - I find that most hitter trains this year have been either short or never-ending. (Blalock) Probably why I haven't been on one in the last week or so. With 10 PT's and 1 HT, I'm obviously leaning towards pitcher trains. I've also got alot of money invested in hitting (Irod, Helton, Soriano, Bernie) so there's also less potential positions for trains for me. I made the same mistake last year though, putting too much money into hitting too early. I made a vow in the off-season not to fall into that trap this year, only to have RJ/Pedro/Oswalt push me there anyway. Doh!

quik_ag
ID: 24016292
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 15:59

i went into runny's 4/22 start knowing that i was going to drop him after that start. in fact, pp's thread's topic seemed ridiculously obvious to me. anyways, my take on the matter is this: after runny's mediocre outing on 4/16, having already saturated the market, many managers decided that it was time for him to go. his net buys dried up almost completely, but the ultimate managers are not stupid. realizing that the 5-day repricing algorithm is in effect and that runny had significant buys leading into that start, it made sense to hold him until he stopped making money. he went negative the day before his 4/22 start, and that was the nail in his coffin. the ride was over and the massive selloff was a foregone conclusion even before he pitched admirably the next night. smart managers realized that his ownership had nowhere to go but down at that point and they bailed early, resulting in a tolerable 50k drop. the rest of the managers followed suit realizing that his price would continue to drop and that loaiza, who had just pitched another solid game, was going to make a lot of money in the near future. your hand wasn't forced by the thread, but by the fact that many managers in the ultimate game know what they're doing.

Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 16:15

Good post quick_ag. You explained it much better than I did. Also, I guess I was hasty in saying that it was unsavvy to pick up Runny for that 4/22 start, as if you were doing so with intentions to rotate out right after or at least leave that open as a liklihood, then you can't argue with the strategy, and obviously not with the result, either. Obviously, the move was unsavvy for anyone who traded in after 4/16 thinking the cash gains would continue.

The Pink Pimp
ID: 56332914
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 16:47

I gotta hand it to wiggs on one count though, he's not some AL punk pitcher like Clemens who never has to take the beanball in return (Although the Mets had their chance and failed.) At least wiggs has stuck around to debate the topic.

smallwhirled
Donor
ID: 17152614
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 17:23

Regardless of hype, the name of the game is to NOT differentiate. By not following, you differentiate at the most crucial time, and end up burying yourself at the bottom. Differentiate with unheld players, but don't play with fire with the the held players.

Regardless of how good Loiaza continues to perform, he is probably 4 or 5 days away from the consistant buys...once that happens we'll all sell and do some bigtime collusion. ;)

smallwhirled

wiggs
Donor
ID: 10261612
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 17:24

thanks PP. i am still learning this game, this is my first season playing. I guess i just get bothered because i seem to be burning trades like crazy.

wiggs
Donor
ID: 10261612
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 17:29

btw PP, i think your runny post was well written and of course i am benefitting from everyone moving out of runny now. Hopefully i will be able to pick up runny in a week when he is dirt cheap.

Strike One
ID: 356372421
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 18:40

I think the bottom line is this, if the player is producing points he'll go up in price, if he doesn't produce points, his price will go down. It has nothing to do with hype, just that a less proven player has a much smaller margin for error in his performance as far his price flunctuation goes than a proven veteran.

Using pitcher X and pitcher Y as an example, if both are highly held and player X is a young and unproven and player Y is a proven veteran, Obviously, I think we would all agree that player X is more likely to fall in price before player Y. Since assuming they've both been putting up decent points and have relatively the same ownership, player X will likely see a noticable amount of sells with a bad/average start imediately while player Y, after a bad/ average start, likely won't see noticable gains until after two back to back (or two out of three) bad/average starts. This is an important point to realize and understand when you have a young unproven pitching train on your roster. However, if after he sees some sells, player X puts together two or three 100+ TSNP performances in a row, naturally his price will start to go in a posistive direction again. if the player produces points he will gets buys, that is the bottom line.

So if you're holding a player like player X, who after a bad/average start begins to fall, You have to weigh the potential loss with how you think player X will perform. His potential to fall in price is usually so high that a manager does not want to take a risk and hold out of selling player X, but if player X conitues to put up good TSNP numbers than he can only fall so far before his price either stagnates or rises once again. In the end, you will find that the top manangers in the game don't follow the "lemmings" rather they follow their gut in most cases. If they think a player will continue to produce they'll hold, if they don't they'll sell.

At this point of the season, I think it really depends on the type of manager. Which is more important to a him? Having a guy, who is falling in price, average 100+ TSNP over three starts then seeing his price stagnate or rise OR losing a substantial amount of money in that time period. There is no proven answer to the question.

Personally, if I thought the player would continue to produce, I would keep him, take the brief price hits and save a trade.

Forum: basePage 14695Subject: MORA (Next train)

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Subject: MORA (Next train)