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| Posted by: Nerfherders
- [308512415] Fri, May 30, 2003, 13:17
Gonna start a list of active players who I think have a legitimate shot at the HoF.
Locks:
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Greg Maddux
Tom Glavine
Will likely make it:
Rafael Palmeiro
Fred McGriff
Sammy Sosa
Mike Piazza
Randy Johnson
Need a few more years, but still likely:
Jeff Bagwell
Alex Rodriguez
Junior Griffey
Ivan Rodriguez
Mike Mussina
Curt Schilling
Good shots:
Bernie Williams
Nomar Garciaparra
Chipper Jones
Gary Sheffield
Edgar Martinez
Manny Ramirez
Roberto Alomar
Frank Thomas
Kevin Brown
Trevor Hoffman
John Smoltz (Depends how well Eck does in voting)
Outside Shots:
John Olerud
Mariano Rivera
Jason Giambi
Barry Larkin
Derek Jeter
Craig Biggio
This is by no means a complete list. Just off the top of my head. I considered nobody under age 30, except A-Rod. Please add to it or discuss!
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| | | 1 | Ruben
ID: 384131911
Fri, May 30, 2003, 13:19
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Jeter is more than an outside shot
Alfonso Soriano should be in one of those categories.
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| | | 2 | Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Fri, May 30, 2003, 13:21
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Alfonzo Soriano SHOULD NOT be in any category on that list. This is his 3rd year! An argument could be made for Jorge Posada belonging on the 'outside chance' list.
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| | | 3 | Rendle
Donor
ID: 189102723
Fri, May 30, 2003, 13:27
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What about Omar Vizquel? He has dominated the shortstop position defensively for 10 years now. Mazeroski made it based on his fielding and Omar has posted better offensive numbers than him.
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| | | 4 | rockafellerskank
Leader
ID: 40416212
Fri, May 30, 2003, 13:31
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Rickey Henderson is still active. He is a lock.
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| | | 5 | GolfFreak
Sustainer
ID: 36312020
Fri, May 30, 2003, 13:32
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Randy Johnson
Alex Rodriguez
should be moved up to locks
Mariano Rivera should also be bumped up too Will likely make it:
but hoping Paul Molitor makes it 2004
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| | | 6 | Texas Flood
Donor
ID: 124261512
Fri, May 30, 2003, 13:39
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now for the reality check. in big year the hall inducts what 2-3 players. my guess is that only about 25-30% of the players listed will actually get to cooperstown.
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| | | 8 | Razor
Donor
ID: 411149818
Fri, May 30, 2003, 14:03
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Bonds, Clemens, Maddux, and Johnson are all first ballot if they died today.
Glavine, Piazza, and Sosa are in the next level of locks.
Changes:
Palmeiro - very good shot
McGriff - very good shot
Bagwell - 2 more years...good shot
Thomas - decent shot
Edgar - decent shot
Smoltz - few more years, good shot
I-Rod - very good shot
Schilling - decent shot.
Mussina - outside shot.
Bernie - few more years...likely
A-Rod - few more years...first ballot, lock
Griffey - could be first ballot, could be decent shot depending on remainder of his career
Olerud - no shot
Larkin - decent shot
Alomar - very good shot
Ramirez, Nomar, Chipper, Giambi - 6 or 7 more years...who knows
Jeter - very good shot
Biggio - decent shot
Brown - outside shot
Hoffman - remote shot
Sheffield - outside shot
Rivera - good shot
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| | | 9 | Mogulsmar
Sustainer
ID: 37050215
Fri, May 30, 2003, 14:09
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how this thread can be an hour old and not mention
PEDRO MARTINEZ is beyond me.
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| | | 10 | Motley Crue
Donor
ID: 38333108
Fri, May 30, 2003, 14:15
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I am not going to check this, but is Jeter 30 already?
Bob Abreu has decent numbers: 153 SB's, .925 OPS, 29 years old. Maybe not a HOF candidate, but it's not impossible.
Does Rickey Henderson count as active?
Jim Thome probably has an outside shot, too. Career .978 OPS, 345 homers. He's 33 this year, though.
Juan Gonzale, 33 years old, 420 homers, 1353 RBI, .906 OPS. Maybe not, unless he hits 600 homers.
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| | | 11 | Jags
ID: 414482620
Fri, May 30, 2003, 14:18
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Jeff Kent...somewhere between "will likely make it" and "lock"
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| | | 12 | Nerfherders
ID: 308512415
Fri, May 30, 2003, 14:26
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I forgot Pedro. Like I said, it was just off the top of my head. Still, he's only been dominate for 7 years. So I would put him in the Good Shot category. If he died today, he probably would not get in.
I'm not convinced that Rivera has more claim to HoF than Hoffman right now. Just becuase he's a Yankee doesnt make up for the fact that Hoffman was THE closer of the past decade. However, give Rivera 5 more years and I would say he would be there.
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| | | 13 | Seattle Zen
Donor
ID: 55343019
Fri, May 30, 2003, 14:36
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Locks:
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Greg Maddux
Randy Johnson
Rafael Palmeiro
Will likely make it:
Sammy Sosa
Alex Rodriguez
Pedro Martinez
Need a few more years, but still likely:
Tom Glavine
Curt Schilling
Outside Shots:
Junior Griffey
Manny Ramirez
Nomar Garciaparra
Mike Piazza
Fred McGriff
Mariano Rivera
Derek Jeter
Ivan Rodriguez
Mike Mussina
I'm not sold on Junior even making it to 500 HR's. The guy is breaking down.
Take Piazza from behind home plate (...PLEASE) and he is an above average batter, not HOF. Pudge is the better catcher, but he needs four more good years. Both have had betters years than Gary Carter, but have either had better careers?
John Olerud? Craig Biggio? Come on!
I'm of the Rob Neyer school of limiting the number of inductees.
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| | | 14 | Nerfherders
ID: 308512415
Fri, May 30, 2003, 14:44
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I read somewhere that Bill James concluded that Craig Biggio was the best player of the 90's, based on Win Shares. I'm certainly not convinced myself, but I think that for a second baseman he's possibly in the top 10 all time. Olerud, on the other hand, I just threw in there for the heck of it. I dont think he's got much of a chance considering all the great 1st baseman we've had in the last decade. But I do think he's a better player than Mark Grace.
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| | | 15 | patjams
ID: 94403011
Fri, May 30, 2003, 14:51
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Juan Gonzalez would have to average 40 HR's a year till he's 40 to get to 600. No chance he does it and no chance he gets in.
Thome = no.
Jeter isn't 30 until next year and his numbers are not HOF numbers. The only reason he gets consideration is because he was integral in 4 World Series. That doesn't make for an HOF'er in my book. If he never wins another ring (chances of that are slim) he won't get in with his numbers.
Chipper Jones = not a chance.
Larkin will have a tough time.
I don't think Bernie gets in that easily either.
There are a lot of guys being mentioned here and if history is any indication it will take almost a 15-20 year period for all of them to get in. (And that's without inlcuding past players who still get consideration.)
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| | | 16 | Razor
Donor
ID: 411149818
Fri, May 30, 2003, 14:56
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Piazza an above average batter? Please. The guy has finsihed Top 10 in the MVP voting 7 times and is a 10 time all-star. You can't just use his hitting numbers and pretend he played 1B because it is almost 100% certain that he'd have hit better had he not been a catcher. Piazza plays horrible defense but that will not be remembered. What will be remembered is that Piazza is a catcher who hit 40 HR's twice, 100 RBI almost every year and hit over .310 for his career.
If those are actually your picks (who you think should make it based on your critera) and not who you think will get voted in, why do you have Curt Schilling that high? He has like 150 wins and is 37 years old. How many good years does he have left in the tank? He needs a serious run to get into serious HoF contention. He hasn't had a great long career nor has he had a great stretch of sustained dominance, at least not yet. Striking a lot of guys out doesn't count as sustained dominance, either. I'm talking about stringing together 4 or 6 years where he was at the top of the game. You must be weighing his postseason starts and strikeouts awfully heavily to have him that high, above guys like Piazza and I-Rod. At any point in his career has anyone said, "Ya, if he ain't a HoF'er, I don't know who is"? Once you answer this question I think it will put this whole Schilling thing in perspective for everyone: how many seasons with more than 200 innings does Schilling have?
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| | | 17 | Razor
Donor
ID: 411149818
Fri, May 30, 2003, 15:00
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As a clarification, with some of my selections, I made my decision based on what I think the Hall will do. I don't think Bernie's a HoF'er either but 25 years from now, someone will wonder why a guy with his kind of numbers on 4 championship teams isn't in the Hall.
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| | | 18 | patjams
ID: 94403011
Fri, May 30, 2003, 15:01
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Schilling has 7 years with 200+. I thought it would be more, but it must be because of injuries. He averages 7.6 IP's when he starts.
I agree with Razor that Schilling is not HOF material.
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| | | 19 | Chris
ID: 204133013
Fri, May 30, 2003, 15:09
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Patjams, Schilling racked up about 150 relief innings in his career. He actually averaged about 7.2 IP per start in his career, which is still very impressive.
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| | | 20 | Micheal
ID: 412281014
Fri, May 30, 2003, 15:16
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If Juan Gone averaged 40 home runs a year until he was 40 that would give him 700. Pretty elite company up there.
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| | | 21 | patjams
ID: 94403011
Fri, May 30, 2003, 15:20
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You're right Micheal. I still don't see him getting to 600 though.
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| | | 22 | Khahan
ID: 3127107
Fri, May 30, 2003, 15:20
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Ok, here's some trickery (and will probably be thought of as blasphemy as well). Does this guy belong in the Hall of Fame
16 year career stats:
Games: 1874
AB: 6187
Runs: 1167
Hits: 1626
Doubles: 252
Triples: 6
RBI: 1414
BB: 1317
K's: 1596
SB: 12
CS: 8
Career BA: .263
...
Let me re-emphasize a few points: a .263 CAREER batting average. His career high was .333, but he had all of 84 AB that year. He only had 1 season where he qualified for the batting crown in which he hit .300 or better (.312). He had 1 year hit .299. Meanwhile, he had 3 seasons batting .235 or below. Thats more seasons at .235 than even at .290 or above.
He did lead the league in HR 5 times and briefly held the single season record (duh, just try not to think about the name). His career high in hits is 161 for single season.
Out of his cumulative stats, 3 of them rank in the top 50. HR (6), BB (30) and Strike outs (20).
Think about that a moment. To me at least, the Hall of Fame is for the cream of the crop. Here is a guy that most consider a 1st ballot lock. Yet, he ranks in the top 50 career in only 3 categories...and 1 of those categories, the lower the rank, the better. So that one is actually another knock against him.
Just some food for thought when you think about Hall of Fame players.
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| | | 23 | patjams
ID: 94403011
Fri, May 30, 2003, 15:26
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I personally don't think of him as a lock unless you count the fact that he helped to bring baseball back from an all time low.
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| | | 24 | Razor
Donor
ID: 411149818
Fri, May 30, 2003, 15:29
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12 time All-Star, 6th all-time in HR's. Those are the only two you had to list. His OPB and SLG are .394 and .588 respectively. A very good season...a great career.
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| | | 25 | Chris
ID: 204133013
Fri, May 30, 2003, 15:30
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Dunno, a .392 OBP and a .588 slugging percentage is pretty damn impressive. He WAS injured a lot, but I think he had enough longevity with those percentages, plus the intangibles, to merit a HoF plaque.
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| | | 26 | SillySpheres at Work
ID: 582492810
Fri, May 30, 2003, 15:31
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I guess I am an idiot, but who is Khahan referring to? And it looks like Khahan left out this mystery player's career homerun totals too.
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| | | 27 | Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Fri, May 30, 2003, 15:32
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Maris is not in the hall, though his career stars are even less impressive than Mac's.
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| | | 28 | SillySpheres at Work
ID: 582492810
Fri, May 30, 2003, 15:32
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oh McGwire, of course....
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| | | 29 | Razor
Donor
ID: 411149818
Fri, May 30, 2003, 15:32
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Every eligible player with more than 442 HR's (Dave Kingman) is in the Hall. McGwire has 583. Give me a break.
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| | | 30 | Chris
ID: 204133013
Fri, May 30, 2003, 15:35
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JKaye and I did some digging around, and Schilling's 7.2 IP/start is tops among active players. Some others of note:
Clemens 7.1
RJ 7.0
Maddux 7.0(7.63 during his 4-year Cy Young stretch)
Brown 6.9
Pedro 6.9
Mussina 6.9
Smoltz 6.8
Glavine 6.6(lose a lot of respect for him with a total that low...takes some wind out of his HoF sails IMO)
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| | | 31 | Chris
ID: 204133013
Fri, May 30, 2003, 15:38
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Actually, I want to point out that the fact that he's almost never missed a start in his career, and his 2 Cy Youngs easily counter-balance that. Plus, his Game 6 in 1995 is the stuff of legends. Tough to see him not making the Hall with a few more decent years.
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| | | 32 | Razor
Donor
ID: 411149818
Fri, May 30, 2003, 15:46
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When you consider that Glavine and Schilling were born in the same year yet Glavine has almost 200 more starts to his name, I think that puts the wind back in Glavine's HoF sails. Glavine is one of the great big game pitchers of the generation. With 2 Cy Youngs and 250+ wins (very soon), Glavine's a great choice for the Hall. Who cares if he throws 1 out less than the other guys per start. He's never been on the DL.
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| | | 33 | Chris
ID: 204133013
Fri, May 30, 2003, 15:48
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Very true, but comparing him to Schilling is fruitless because I don't think Schilling is even remotely close to making the HoF.
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| | | 35 | Khahan
ID: 3127107
Fri, May 30, 2003, 15:51
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I left out HR on purpose, thought I had mentioned that, but must have taken that part out with some edits I did, my mistake.
But think it about it for just a moment. He is purely a 1 dimensional player. He hit HR, that is it.
It does depend partially on what you consider when you think of a HoF. I know many people here (myself included) consider pure dominance during his era. And Big Mac most certainly was thought of as dominating. Despite a .263 career BA (translation, easy out), he still drew more walks than all but 29 other guys in Baseball history. That tells you just how much this guy was feared.
That alone should be what gives him serious consideration.
But if you are going to elect him on his all time standing in 1 category, I've got some names for you:
Tim Raines: 5th on the career SB list. AND he has a .294 career BA over 23 season and over 1500 runs scored.
Vince Coleman: 6th on the career SB list and a .264 career BA (1 point better than marky).
Does Coleman belong in the HoF? Not by a long shot. Does Raines? If Mac does, Raines does.
Raines ranks 5th on the career SB list, 28th on the career Walks list (above even Big Mac), 44 on the career runs list. He has 2,600 career hits.
My point about McGwire is this: he is a 1 category person. He does not even have longevity (though that fact makes his career HR total even more amazing). Out of the top 20 non active HR hitters, he has the fewest seasons, the fewest AB (by 1600), 3rd fewest walks. Fewest plate appearances.
Now for his good points: 5 time HR champ. held single season mark for most HR. 6th no career HR list. The allstar appearances mentioned above. HR mark for rookies. Ranks 53 alltime in RBI. Best HR/PA ratio ever (I believe).
My vote is for him to go in. But not 1st ballot. Not even 2nd ballot. Reserve those for the guys like Aaron, Ruth, Mays, Bonds, Robinson etc. By they way, those guys all managed to hit more HR than McGwire AND were pretty darn solid if not stellar in other aspects of the game.
By the way, they all hit more HR
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| | | 36 | Nerfherders
ID: 308512415
Fri, May 30, 2003, 15:56
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1st ballot has little to do in comparing players between generations. The writers have to vote for who is on the ballot. And in four years who's going to be a better choice than McGwire?
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| | | 37 | Chris
ID: 204133013
Fri, May 30, 2003, 15:59
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I think you're trivializing the value of drawing walks in the 3 hole. The .263 average never comes in to play, because when you're batting that high in the order, the .390 OBP is what really matters. His negative becomes a positive just like that. His other stuff should stand on its own merit, but with the walks included, I don't see how you can not put him in the Hall first ballot.
If you think that it's too easy to get in first ballot, that's another subject(one which I happen to agree with you). But the standards already been set. Let Mac in.
Glad you brought up Raines. His career OBP is actually lower than McGwire's. He was a prolific basestealer, and had a decent amount of pop. I'm not sure whether he should be in the Hall or not. I think I would have to lean towards putting him in, but certainly not first ballot...tough decision there.
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| | | 38 | Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Fri, May 30, 2003, 16:02
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500 HR goes a long way. Harmon Killebrew has very siomilar career stats to Mac, never heard his induction challenged:
(Mac/Killebrew)
Games: 1874/2435
AB: 6187/8147
Runs: 1167/1283
Hits: 1626/2086
Doubles: 252/290
Triples: 6/24
RBI: 1414/1584
BB: 1317/1559
K's: 1596/1699
SB: 12/19
CS: 8/18
Career BA: .263/.256
Reggie Jackson and Mike Schmidt both had career BAs under .270 as well, though both of them consistantly had double-digit steals through much of their careers.
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| | | 39 | patjams
ID: 94403011
Fri, May 30, 2003, 16:07
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I should add that there is no doubt McGwire is a 1st ballot selection given the way the selections are made. However, I don't feel that just because a guy has 500+ (or 442 for that matter) HR's that he should be a shoe in. McGwire, however, was/is a great Ambassador of the game and was a guy who never got into trouble or had controversy (Andro aside). He's also a guy who gave back some money and left a great deal of money on the table when he decided that he couldn't justify cashing checks if he wasn't gonna be worth it. All of those factors and the fact that he was the guy who beat the HR record first make him unanimous.
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| | | 40 | Razor
Donor
ID: 411149818
Fri, May 30, 2003, 16:12
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Killebrew (Killer) should be in just on the coolness of his nickname. How do you think Foxx (Beast), Aaron (Hammer) and Williams (Teddy Ballgame)? What kind of Hall of Fame would we have a if a guy with the nickname of Teddy Ballgame wasn't in?
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| | | 41 | U.G.G.
ID: 27049122
Fri, May 30, 2003, 16:13
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He's also a guy who gave back some money and left a great deal of money on the table
that doesn't necessarily have anything to do with getting in to the hall
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| | | 42 | GolfFreak
Sustainer
ID: 36312020
Fri, May 30, 2003, 16:16
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how about Cool Papa Bell
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| | | 43 | patjams
ID: 94403011
Fri, May 30, 2003, 16:33
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It does when considering whether the integrity of the game was more important to him than cashing the check. Nuances UGG. You'll get it someday. If it were only about numbers we wouldn't even be having this discussion.
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| | | 44 | Nuances U.G.G.
ID: 27049122
Fri, May 30, 2003, 16:46
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Makes him a good guy. But doesnt help get anymore votes for the hall.
say hi to Barry for me
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| | | 45 | Razor
Donor
ID: 411149818
Fri, May 30, 2003, 16:53
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If you think a guy who clubbed 583 HR's and 70 HR's in a season is getting in because of nuances, you must be dreaming. He's a first ballot HoF'er in the HoF voters' eyes and he's a first ballot HoF'er in my eyes.
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| | | 46 | Seattle Zen
Donor
ID: 55343019
Fri, May 30, 2003, 17:02
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I'll conceed that Schilling should be bumped down to Outside chance.
Still don't think that Piazza will be wearing any uniform in Cooperstown, Razor. You'll just have to don a Barry Bonds "Greatest Hitter of ALL TIME" Giants uni instead. Sorry.
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| | | 47 | patjams
ID: 94403011
Fri, May 30, 2003, 17:19
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I didn't say he's getting in because of them, I'm saying that there are other factors considered when the voting is done. If not, then why would there be a need for any voting? Just set the criteria for what gets a guy in and then let the players try to reach the numbers. You better believe that if Barry's numbers (HR's aside) were as low as Mac's, most of you would not give him first ballot consideration.
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| | | 48 | Perm Dude
ID: 154482114
Thu, May 22, 2008, 12:25
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Griffey is on the verge of 600 dingers. I think the resurgence of his career has put him back into first ballot area.
One thing I didn't realize is that Jim Thome has two fewer years in the majors than Griffey (and Griffey has about 2000 more abs than Thome). If Thome had 2000 more abs and hit dingers at his career average, he'd be in fourth place all time right now.
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| | | 49 | Razor
ID: 4532926
Thu, May 22, 2008, 15:52
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Griffey is where is now because he was a phenom was an everyday player at age 19. Thome didn't become an everyday player until he was 24. If you want to play the "if" game, I think the better one would be what if Griffey didn't suffer several freak injuries in a row in his early 30's. Griffey is showing the kind of decline that Bonds would have shown had he not cheated. Bonds' wouldn't have even sniffed 600 without juicing.
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| | | 50 | Nerfherders
ID: 501035289
Thu, May 22, 2008, 16:02
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Wow, this is an old thread to dig up!
I think Thome will be a casualty of the juiced ball/player era and even though he will be in the 500 HR club, probably won't get in for a long while, if at all. He was never really the best player at any point during his career, despite good overall numbers.
Chipper Jones I think has moved up on this list quite a bit. I think he gets in even if he doesn't have 500 HR or 3000 hits, just for being the face of a successful franchise.
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| | | 51 | Great One
ID: 56438112
Thu, May 22, 2008, 16:21
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Where this thread left off at post 47... Curt Schilling was a season away from joining the Red Sox.
And Sox hero Nomar Garciaparra was "outside chance" level of HOF status... my how things change.
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| | | 52 | Perm Dude
ID: 84462211
Thu, May 22, 2008, 18:19
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Razor: Well, that's certainly true, but I don't think it is so speculative. Thome plays in the AL as a DH and is a little younger than Griffey. My point wasn't anything more than saying that Thome has a real chance to finish quite high, just by keeping up hit dinger average.
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| | | 53 | Mattinglyinthehall
Dude
ID: 01629107
Thu, May 22, 2008, 18:33
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what if Griffey didn't suffer several freak injuries in a row in his early 30's.
Rumors abounded for years that this was likely due to Griffey's priveledged status in Cincy, susposedly not having to stretch and condition as much as the rest of the team.
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| | | 54 | Seattle Zen
ID: 49112418
Thu, May 22, 2008, 19:01
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Reading this thread and the other BH bumped, I did not remember the unanimous sentiment that Mark McGuire was a lock for the HOF. My, my, how things have changed.
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| | | 55 | Donkey Hunter
ID: 4341818
Fri, May 23, 2008, 09:24
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My personal list of active hall of famers. These are all if they retired today type guys. So no younger players like Migual Cabrera or Johan Santana.
Manny Ramirez
Derek Jeter
Mariano Rivera
Alex Rodriguez
Ivan Rodriguez
Vlad Guerrero
Ichiro Suzuki
Chipper Jones
John Smoltz
Tom Glavine
Pedro Martinez
Ken Griffey
Greg Maddux
Randy Johnson
Frank Thomas
Im borderline on Schilling, Thome, Kent, Hoffman so I would keep them out but would listen to arguments in there favor.
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| | | 56 | Perm Dude
ID: 3345239
Fri, May 23, 2008, 12:39
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Thome probably needs a couple of more solid years.
It is hard to keep the #1 all time leader in saves off your list but you seem to have done so--I think Hoffman will get in without too much trouble at all.
Schilling needs a year (maybe two) with some solid numbers to get back into consideration. A couple of seasons like 2006 would do it, but I don't know that he has it in him anymore.
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| | | 57 | Seattle Zen
ID: 49112418
Fri, May 23, 2008, 13:04
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I don't know why you would be borderline on Jeff Kent. Either you think Ryan Sandburg should not be in the Hall of Fame or perhaps you don't like second basemen at all, but Kent is simply the best hitting second baseman since Rogers Hornsby.
Granted, Joe Morgan is close if you use league-adjusted stats...
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| | | 58 | Farn
Leader
ID: 451044109
Fri, May 23, 2008, 13:30
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Ichiro is in today? Interesting. I'll have to go back and look at his stats but has he done it for long enough to be on that list?
I'm with Zen on Kent. His offensive #s as a 2b are just crazy.
I think another couple of decent seasons for Schilling gets him in. His reputation as a big game pitcher, delivering a WS in Boston, and his top of the line numbers will probably get him in.
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| | | 59 | Perm Dude
ID: 3345239
Fri, May 23, 2008, 13:40
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Ichiro isn't eligible. He needs 10 MLB seasons minimum.
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| | | 60 | Donkey Hunter
ID: 4341818
Fri, May 23, 2008, 14:17
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Like I said in the other thread I think Hall of Famers should have a certain mystique about them. Kent and Thome don't have it for me. Schilling and Hoffman do. Everyone I listed as in definitely has it. I think Vlad is probably my last man out of the group. Having him in has had me thinking since I typed it. Also I misspelled their in the last sentence. That was bothering me too.
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| | | 61 | blue hen
ID: 30311814
Fri, May 23, 2008, 14:19
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True. But if he suddenly retired after 2008, I suspect there would be a clause to let him in.
Donkey Hunter's list is pretty good. I don't really have any arguments against any of those guys. Pudge and Smoltz are probably the biggest question marks of the bunch and I think both are safe.
To me, Schilling is in. His entire body of work is of the appropriate level.
Kent, to me, is in. He's essentially the equivalent of Sandberg.
And I'd like more from Zen on Joe Morgan. I've never considered him anywhere close to borderline (as a player, at least).
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| | | 62 | Seattle Zen
ID: 49112418
Fri, May 23, 2008, 15:05
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BH, when I said, "Kent is the best hitting two-bagger since Hornsby," I qualified that by saying that Morgan was "close" to Kent, not a borderline HOF player.
Can't you get him fired?
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| | | 63 | tastethewaste
ID: 911431318
Sat, May 24, 2008, 00:19
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Todd Helton, no chance?
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| | | 64 | Khahan
ID: 486552412
Sat, May 24, 2008, 10:37
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Todd Helton...no chance. He is a great example of a fantastic player. A guy is an Allstar caliber player and will have a very very good career. But just because he put up solid numbers and is likable does not make him a hall of famer.
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| | | 65 | blue hen
Leader
ID: 710321114
Sat, May 24, 2008, 10:50
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I put Morgan ahead of Kent, due to context. I'm not sure what you meant by context hurting Morgan. There was less offense in the 70s than in the 90s and 00s.
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| | | 66 | Seattle Zen
ID: 29241823
Sat, May 24, 2008, 12:41
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I'm not sure what you meant by context hurting Morgan.
They obviously did not teach reading comprehension in public schools in Delaware. How did you get into Emory?
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| | | 67 | blue hen
ID: 0022514
Sat, May 24, 2008, 19:46
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Granted, Joe Morgan is close if you use league-adjusted stats...
Close to what?
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| | | 68 | tastethewaste
ID: 911431318
Sun, May 25, 2008, 22:52
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Todd Helton...no chance. He is a great example of a fantastic player. A guy is an Allstar caliber player and will have a very very good career. But just because he put up solid numbers and is likable does not make him a hall of famer.
I dont really care if hes likeable. Aside from Shoeless Joe Jackson does anyone in the 20th century forward have that high a batting average (330) in that many career ABs (5884)?
He has a career OBP of 429 and Slg of 577
to go along with 300+ Hrs and still going, 1100+ Rbis and still going, 5 time all star and 3 time gold glove winner. I find it hard to believe he has no chance for the hall.
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| | | 69 | G
Donor
ID: 5810561615
Sun, May 25, 2008, 23:00
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In addition to all the stats listed in #68, how many Col Rockies are in the HOF?
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| | | 70 | Khahan
ID: 46121614
Tue, May 27, 2008, 11:31
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Tastethewaste- go ahead and make your case for Helton. I'm always willing to listen. Yes, his % stats are there. But where are the rest of his counting stats?
1928 Hits (281) (20)
307 HR (107)(16)
1127 runs (207) (15)
1103 Rbis (184) (18)
The first number in parethesis is his all-time ranking. The second is his ranking among active players. Sorry, but to me those are not HoF caliber rankings. HoF is for the elite, cream of the crop. Helton was very good and is an exceptional player. But he's not elite.
As for the % stats here they (what I can find):
BA: .330 (29) (3)
I'm sure his OBP ranks up there. I checked a few players off the top of my head and he has a higher career OBP than Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Chipper Jones and Alex Rodriguez.
Todd Helton is a great player. He has likability (a big factor, just ask Jim Rice) and % stats in his favor. But likability aside, he does not have the whole package. His counting stats fall far short. He doesn't have any top 50 appearances in the major categories. Looking at peripheral categories he is 71 all time in doubles (8th among active) he is again very, very good but not elite.
If the writers don't think a guy like Andre Dawson is a HoF, then helton surely won't make it.
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| | | 71 | blue hen
ID: 30311814
Tue, May 27, 2008, 11:41
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It's a bad idea to compare Andre Dawson and Todd Helton. Helton is much, much better.
The main argument against Helton is Coors Field. It's generally valid that he has been helped by his home field. But how much? Obviously, Vinny Castilla was helped by Coors. How about Larry Walker? I think Helton is ahead of Walker - and his numbers were so off the wall that they translate to very, very good even with the Coors factor.
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| | | 72 | Perm Dude
ID: 544422710
Tue, May 27, 2008, 11:43
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#69: Since Colorado is only 15 years old (and a HoF has to play 10 seasons) this doesn't seem to be very relevant now. I somewhat agree with Khahan on this one, that Helton needs to work up some more counting stats.
His OPS and on base % are amazing. But playing in Colorado means he'll have to pile up some more hard numbers to get in. And he'll have to turn it around this year as well.
But another, say, 4 years might be enough to do it if he keeps up the numbers. I don't think he's there right now, however.
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| | | 73 | Khahan
ID: 46121614
Tue, May 27, 2008, 12:15
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Blue Hen:
You can pick any number of players with 2500+ hits, 1300 or so Rbi's and runs etc that aren't in. Face it. If his numbers aren't enough (2700+ hits, 1500+ rbis, 300 SB, 1300+ runs), then Helton's aren't good enough.
but you are right. There is no need to compare Helton to Dawson (or to anyone for that matter) on a stat by stat basis. Helton's numbers today speak for themselves: he is not a HoF. And if his decline continues he never will be. If he can turn it around this year and maintain a .300 BA and swat 15-20HR each year for the next 4 years or so then it'll be time to re-evaluate him and maybe give him some serious consideration.
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| | | 74 | Nerfherders
ID: 64532914
Tue, May 27, 2008, 14:42
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I don't think Helton is a HoF at this point. He has alot of things going against him.
He didnt really start playing in the bigs until after age 24. He just wont have the time to accumulate the numbers.
If you don't steal bases and play an offensive position, you need 500 HR OR 3000 hits, or do something spectacular in the postseason. He isn't going to have any of that.
Playing in Colorado certainly hasn't helped him. The humidor effects show even more that he probably was juiced by the mile high atmosphere.
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| | | 75 | ChicagoTRS
ID: 344311322
Tue, May 27, 2008, 15:40
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Helton = Mark Grace = no hall...
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| | | 76 | matt from brookfield
ID: 0492718
Tue, May 27, 2008, 19:09
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(TODD HELTONS) CAREER STATISTICS ARE SOME OF THE BEST OF ALL TIME. YOU WOULD HAVE TO KNOW THE HISTORICAL STATISTICS OF THE OTHER HALL OF FAMERS TO EVEN UNDERSTAND HOW GREAT TODD HELTONS CAREER NUMBERS ARE.
HELTON WILL MAKE THE HALL OF FAME...............
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| | | 77 | Seattle Zen
ID: 49112418
Tue, May 27, 2008, 19:41
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Well, brookfield must be one special place. Does brookfield have a special "baseball hall-of-fame" library and learning center where you can learn the "historical statistics" of the other HOF'ers? They must, the place sounds blessed.
The all caps did it for me, yeah, Todd is in.
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| | | 78 | Perm Dude
ID: 420241913
Tue, May 27, 2008, 21:07
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One can actually see the beer breath...
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| | | 79 | tastethewaste
ID: 911431318
Tue, May 27, 2008, 21:20
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why is Todd Heltons in () in post 76. Did it used to say Jim Rice? Insert name here?
Khahan, so there is a chance. In this day and age when OBP is now the obvious stat to look at and not batting average (and he is still a career .330 hitter) I cant believe that we can hold Helton to the standard of 3000 hits. The guy walks a ton. He has walked 1017 times to go along with his 1929 hits in 11 full seasons. I dont see how there is a coors field advantage when it comes to walks.
Chicago Mark Grace? I always comsidered him a poor mans keith hernandez and a rich mans doug
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| | | 80 | ChicagoTRS
ID: 344311322
Tue, May 27, 2008, 23:02
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(Helton - Coors) = Grace
Maybe it is not quite a fair comparison as Helton was certainly more of a run producer but I just do not see him being close to a hall of famer. He just does not have the career stats...he has a nice prime but I think most voters would discount some of that because of Coors. You would expect the next 3-4 years he plays will help his career totals but hurt his averages. He will also be hurt by the fact that his prime power years occurred during the height of the steroid era. He belongs in the Hall of the very good... Maybe if he was a second basemen or centerfielder he would have a shot.
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| | | 81 | Khahan
ID: 486552412
Tue, May 27, 2008, 23:13
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Taste - there is a chance in a few years. But as of today, no chance.
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| | | 82 | Nerfherders
ID: 501035289
Wed, May 28, 2008, 16:02
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I am going to bring Gary Sheffield up again.
2500 hits
483 HR
1500 runs and RBI
245 SB
batting title
9-time all-star
3 MVP top-5's
6 MVP top-10's
He has to at least be in the discussion, especially if he can get those last 17 HR.
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| | | 83 | blue hen
ID: 30311814
Wed, May 28, 2008, 17:04
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To me, Gary Sheffield is a no doubter. He is easily a Hall of Famer.
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| | | 84 | blue hen
ID: 30311814
Wed, May 28, 2008, 17:38
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FYI - Sheffield had 94 games at shortstop and 468 at third.
He also only played in one World Series and was on the Yankee team that suffered the worst postseason choke-job in history.
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| | | 85 | Great One
ID: 2241519
Wed, May 28, 2008, 18:55
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Don't forget that Sheffield intentionally cost his team games to force a trade - the guy rules!
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| | | 86 | Perm Dude
ID: 577543120
Tue, Oct 02, 2012, 22:03
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With the announcement that Omar Vizquel will hang up his cleats tomorrow, I'm wondering what you guys think of his Hall stats.
Being from Cleveland makes me biased on him, of course, but I think he's got the numbers to make the jump.
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| | | 89 | GO
ID: 811442813
Wed, Jan 09, 2013, 15:50
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Whover voted for Aaron Sele should have their vote taken away. Unless they are related.
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| | | 90 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Wed, Jan 09, 2013, 17:20
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I'm a Small Hall guy. But that doesn't mean to exclude Barry Bonds. It means getting rid of Andre Dawson and Jim Rice.
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| | | 91 | Kyle
Sustainer
ID: 052753312
Wed, Jan 09, 2013, 17:38
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I'm seriously worried about Frank Thomas's 1st ballot chances.
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| | | 92 | Razor
ID: 177192916
Wed, Jan 09, 2013, 18:49
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I'll save you the suspense: Thomas ain't going to make it on the first ballot.
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| | | 93 | Kyle
Sustainer
ID: 052753312
Wed, Jan 09, 2013, 21:56
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Which is a crime.
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| | | 94 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 27731299
Wed, Jan 09, 2013, 23:58
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Whover voted for Aaron Sele should have their vote taken away. Unless they are related.
As this story/photo gallery points out, it's usually a writer who covered a player for most of the player's career. It's simply a nod of respect since the writer knows the player won't make it in.
Looking through the gallery, I see several guys that I think of as "good guys", so that's probably a factor as well.
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| | | 95 | ChicagoTRS
ID: 1550160
Thu, Jan 10, 2013, 00:57
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I have always been a big anti-steroid guy...but I am swinging around to the other camp. If the voters are going to elect players like Bagwell, Piazza, Biggio, etc... who were almost certainly PED users at some points in their career then you might as well let in all of the cheaters.
The Hall already has at least a few steroid users...no one will convince me Rickey Henderson was clean for his career. Another particular all-time great from this era had his best power season of his career in 1999 at the age of 38...no player puts up their best power year at age 38 without a little help.
During the 80s/90s it is pretty certain all of baseball looked the other way or minimally ignored the steroid usage. Coaches knew...the front offices knew...the press knew...all of the players knew...and no one really cared at the time. Steroids were an accepted part of the game.
I do not think we can be certain that ANY player coming out of this generation of players was clean. I think the Hall should just acknowledge/asterisk the era as the "Steroids Era" and just elect the best players of the generation.
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| | | 96 | filthy
ID: 302885
Thu, Jan 10, 2013, 03:13
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certain guys that are in, can be linked directly to some known offenders. i had idolized roberto alomar growing up, but to imagine that he stayed clean in baltimore is difficult. rickey henderson definitely has plenty of direct links as well. even cal ripken. so many guys ruined it for everyone. some guys just stay good and healthy forever but have been tainted by association, at least to me.
it's nice that some of them got enough votes to linger long enough for more details to hopefully come out. what are they gonna do with arod? i can't see bonds and clemens letting this go by as quiet as mcgwire, palmeiro and sosa have. palmeiro might drop off the ballot next year, sosa the year after. mcgwire, bonds and clemens will all linger 15 years on the ballot unless some major news comes out at some point.
the real problem this year, and likely next seems to be the wave of talent that hit the ballot. morris, bagwell, raines, murphy are the only returning players that went up in votes this year. murphy is off the ballot now. too many votes went to new players.
the following two year's will probably see 3-5 guys voted in total. the current remaining players might not see a spike until 2016. smith, trammell, and mattingly seem stuck playing out the stretch.
the votes should go to the new guys again next year, maddux, thomas, mussina, glavine, kent, a small spike for the top 5, and the 15th year. morris might see the double spike and make it. maddux should make it. biggio should see a large enough spike based on position to make it close, while thomas is a question mark because of his lack of position. he should get around 300 and have a similar fight to bagwell. glavine should get a large amount, but not make it, and mussina/kent will steal some votes too.
randro seem to be a lock in 2015. smoltz will steal votes. biggio should make it this time. thomas, bagwell and piazza will probably go in 2017, but one might sneak in 2016. mcgriff, walker, edgar will all linger around like mattingly, trammell, smith, murphy, raines. raines will probably emerge around 2017-2018. and schilling will probably rise along the way. i'd love to see mcgriff get a late push too, but unlikely.
2014- gmaddux(1), jmorris(15)
2015- rjohnson(1), pmartinez(1), cbiggio(3)
2016- kgriffey(1), fthomas(3)
2017- mpiazza(5), jbagwell(7)
that's my predictions for the upcoming traffic jam.
who am i overlooking? pudge, kent, schilling, chipper, smoltz, mussina, nomar, delgado, sheffield, hoffman, wagner, manny, vlad, think they'll make it? (chipper, kent, pudge, schilling, smoltz, maybe hoffman likely. i'd really love to see delgado get support)
mcgriff, walker, edgar, think they'll see a spike?
bonds, clemens, mcgwire, think something will bump them?
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| | | 97 | Khahan
ID: 39432178
Thu, Jan 10, 2013, 09:16
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I think Bonds and clemens make it. Maybe not next year but I think they'll be in. I think a LOT of voters wanted to make a statement for the first year but will vote in later years and we'll see a steady rise in vote totals for them.
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| | | 98 | Razor
ID: 177192916
Thu, Jan 10, 2013, 09:47
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What makes you think that, Khahan? Support hasn't increased for Sosa, Palmeiro or McGwire, players with Hall of Fame numbers.
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| | | 99 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 24650229
Thu, Jan 10, 2013, 10:05
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Following up on filthy's post, it's interesting to go back and look at the 1996 ballot, the last time no players were selected.
Guys as far down as 29.1% (Bruce Sutter, 3rd year) ended up making it eventually. Of those players who were eventual HoFers, but didn't get voted in on the 1996 ballot, it's also interesting to see when they made it...
1997: Phil Niekro (5th year, Only player selected)
A gain of 12% in one year. Was this an over-correction to the lack of inductees on the 1996 vote?
1998: Don Sutton (5th year, Only player selected)
56.8% > 57.4% > 63.8% > 73.2% > 81.6% from 1994 to 1998. Again, did the lack of inductees in 96/97 help move the needle? He only moved 7% across his first three ballots and then gains of 9.4% and 8.4%.
2000: Fisk and Tony Perez (9th year)
Again, a year with a lack of obvious choices beyond Fisk. Fisk wasn't going to be 1st ballot with Ryan, Brett, and Yount in 1999, so his jump from 66.4% to 79.6% makes sense. Perez's movement makes less sense (down years highlighted): 50.0% (1992), 55.1%, 57.7%, 56.3%, 65.7%, 66.0%, 67.9%, 60.8%, 77.2%
Is it a coincidence that the years Perez lost ground were years where only 1st ballot players made it? No. Is it coincidence that the years he made the biggest gains there were no other obvious choices? No.
2006: Bruce Sutter (13th Ballot, Only player selected)
A major down year for players available. The highest player who was on one of his first four ballots was Orel Hershiser at 11.2% on his 1st ballot. Rice (64.8%) gains again and is racing against time.
2009: Henderson (1st Ballot) and Jim Rice
Rice finally makes it on his last ballot by 1.4%. His induction was more a race against time than anything else as the last 5 ballots he was on showed steady gains: 59.5%, 64.8%, 63.5% (Ripken/Gwynn 1st Ballot), 72.2%, 76.4%.
In my opinion, the thin field in 2008 helped Rice get into the range where it was easy for a few extra voters to jump on board, despite Henderson's 1st ballot.
===
Biggio (68.2%) will make it. Whether he makes it next year or in the next "down" year, it won't matter. He'll make it.
Morris (67.7%) is going to cut it close. I can't imagine he'll get voted in with a guy like Maddux on his 1st ballot.
I think Bagwell and Piazza also make it eventually. The question is Tim Raines. He only went from 48.7% to 52.2% in a year when nobody was elected. That was an opportunity for him to make big gains and he didn't. It'll likely take a very "down" year for him to get close enough.
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| | | 100 | Khahan
ID: 39432178
Thu, Jan 10, 2013, 11:28
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Razor, difference with Bonds and Clemens is that people seem to think they pinpoint what year those 2 started PED's and both were generally thought of as HoF'ers before that year.
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| | | 101 | Da Bomb
Donor
ID: 487112814
Thu, Jan 10, 2013, 14:30
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There should be an overcompassing guideline for the steroid era as every voter has their own logic on separating certain players from others. Some say Clemens and Bonds deserve to get in because they were HOFers before they used. Others argue that the fact they they used at all and therefore "cheated" should make them ineligible. Yet some of these same people are voting for Bagwell and Piazza, where no one would be surprised if it was discovered tomorrow that they used. What if they get voted in and then it was discovered years later that they used? Would some of those who voted for them want them removed from the Hall? And back to Clemens, there is another level of confusion as some won't vote for him because his trainer alleged he used and he was mentioned in the Mitchell Report, yet others can point to the fact that Clemens denied these allegations to a federal grand jury and was later found not guilty, so no one can really say 100% either way.
There's just too much grey area right now to make any sense of how to vote and for who.
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| | | 102 | Perm Dude
ID: 201027169
Thu, Jan 10, 2013, 14:45
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I think that's right. For many voters, the cloud of PEDs over some players injects an uncertainty into a process in which, to be elected, there should be an overwhelming amount of support.
Maybe in two years, when Omar Vizquel is on the ballot. Nothing like a 5'9" 180 lb player to make voters forget about PED's!
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| | | 103 | Da Bomb
Donor
ID: 487112814
Thu, Jan 10, 2013, 15:31
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Don't forget about 5'-10" 180 lb., 50 SBer Alex Sanchez, the first player to be busted for PEDs.
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| | | 104 | Perm Dude
ID: 201027169
Thu, Jan 10, 2013, 15:44
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I hear he was 130 when he started...
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| | | 105 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Thu, Jan 10, 2013, 16:04
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A Hall of Fame without Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds is not worth much of my time.
Jack Morris was not the dominant starting pitcher of his era.
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| | | 106 | Razor
ID: 177192916
Thu, Jan 10, 2013, 16:10
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What's the difference between a Coopertown without Roger Clemens and the Tour de France record books without Lance Armstrong?
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| | | 107 | Kyle
Sustainer
ID: 052753312
Thu, Jan 10, 2013, 16:34
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I keep hearing about how Morris was the most dominant SP of his era, but I'm not old enough to know his career (I was 7 when he retired) so I went back and looked at pitching stats from 1977 until 1994, cherry picking Morris's exact career.
Morris was very good over that time period, he led the league in wins over that period. But he also had the second most losses and started more games than anyone else. His complete games are very impressive in an era that started putting a good amount of value on closers, 45 more than Blyleven. But was he dominant?
He wasn't the most dominant or feared, that would go to Nolan Ryan. But was he second best? Well looking at fWAR he was behind Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, and Bert Blyleven and he had benefit of missing Blyleven's peak by 3 years and Clemens had 7 less years pitched.
Dwight Gooden, Bret Saberhagen, and Steve Carlton are just behind him.
I believe Morris was very good for a long period of time, but long periods of good aren't HoF worthy, you need to have some years of great, which Morris doesn't. When you compare to pitchers who have 7 less years than you or when you're just slightly better than guys who are out of their peak, you're not a HOFer.
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| | | 108 | Perm Dude
ID: 201027169
Thu, Jan 10, 2013, 17:54
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Jack Morris was not the dominant starting pitcher of his era.
Is this the threshhold? The dominant starting pitcher of his era?
Being very good for a long period of time is, IMO, something to be added to the mix. Not because of the "long period" portion but because of the "very good" qualifier (especially when you see that he went 21-6 at age 37).
I don't know that Morris is Hall worthy or not (I don't have a dog in this fight, but would lean a tiny bit toward not Hall-worthy), but disqualifying him based upon some overly-restrictive qualifications probably isn't the best way of looking at it.
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| | | 109 | GO
ID: 441171223
Thu, Jan 10, 2013, 23:28
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I feel its more like Top 5 pitcher for extended period. Can't be just the one guy obviously. Otherwise right off the bat you'd be voting Glavine out but Maddux in next year.
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| | | 110 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Fri, Jan 11, 2013, 09:53
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Just calling out the top one-liner used to get Morris in. By semi-advanced stats (to wit, ERA), he's probably out. So we have to look at some other measures, and they just aren't there. Morris had some serious postseason implosions and his overall numbers are unimpressive, so that's out. He won a lot of games specifically from 1980-89, but wins aren't that important and many of his exact peers had many more wins. Tom Glavine himself is a guy who trumps Morris, but still has people ahead of him- I'd take Glavine as a guy who didn't have to be #1 but is still worthy.
Dave Stieb was better than Jack Morris.
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| | | 111 | Khahan
ID: 39432178
Fri, Jan 11, 2013, 10:05
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Jack Morris is the Todd Helton of pitchers for his time. Nobody denies he's a good player. I doubt many batters were happy to see him on the mound. He got the job done better than most and had a few things about him that stand out. But the whole package, it just isn't there for him.
Don't get me wrong. If I were a GM and Morris came to me during his career and said he wanted to pitch for my team I'd be ecstatic. But if I'm voting for HoF, he's not on my list.
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| | | 112 | GO
ID: 811442813
Fri, Jan 11, 2013, 12:14
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Sele
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| | | 113 | Perm Dude
ID: 201027169
Fri, Jan 11, 2013, 12:42
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#109: This seems like a fair standard.
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| | | 114 | GO
ID: 811442813
Fri, Jan 11, 2013, 13:34
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I think Mussina is going to be this generations Jack Morris.
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| | | 115 | RJ
ID: 15041511
Tue, Jan 15, 2013, 12:04
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I feel like Moose is a HOFer
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| | | 116 | Perm Dude
ID: 431013412
Tue, Nov 26, 2013, 16:11
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Ballots released.
I would seriously doubt another "no choice" year is coming. I'm guessing Maddux and Biggio this year. Glavine only misses because Maddux is also on the ballot and voters are flaky and won't want two Braves pitchers going in at the same time.
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| | | 117 | blue hen
ID: 4739168
Wed, Dec 04, 2013, 10:59
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I can't do this without fewer than 11 names on my ballot.
Bonds, Clemens, Thomas, Maddux, Biggio, Piazza, Bagwell, Raines, Trammell, Walker, McGwire
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| | | 118 | GO
ID: 01020815
Wed, Dec 04, 2013, 11:13
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My guess for this year = Maddux, Glavine, Biggio, Frank Thomas
Bonds, Clemens, McGwire deserve to but continue to be shunned.
Trammell, Bagwell, Walker and Piazza need to hold on for a less packed year.
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| | | 119 | Khahan
Donor
ID: 39432178
Wed, Dec 04, 2013, 12:33
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I could fill in all 10 slots this year. In no particular order:
Maddux, Glavine, Biggio, Piazza, Bonds, Clemens, Palmeiro, Sosa, Frank Thomas, Jeff Kent.
Who I think will actually get elected:
Maddux Glavine, Biggio
Thomas imho, should be there. But I think he gets a big hurt from being a roid era slugger even though he was never associated.
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| | | 120 | Mith
ID: 29182720
Wed, Dec 04, 2013, 15:57
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My 2014 ballot:
Maddux, Glavine, Biggio, Thomas, Piazza, Kent, Raines, Mattingly.
My guess at the baseball writers' 2014 ballot:
Maddux, Glavine, Biggio, Thomas, Piazza.
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| | | 121 | Khahan
Donor
ID: 39432178
Mon, Dec 09, 2013, 13:35
|
Guess we need to start considering Roy Halladay with his announced retirement (as a blue jay...1 day deal). Most of the message boards and articles about him call him a 'probable hall of famer.'
Here is his career line:
390 games started 67 complete games 20 shut outs
2749.1 IP with 2117 K's 3.38 era 1.18 whip
203-105 record (65.9% Winning %)
Issued 592 walks allowed 236HR 1034 ER and 1135 Runs. He had 8 seasons with a 5+WAR
In the post season he was 3-2 with a .74 whip a 2.37 era and a no-hitter.
Awards:
6 time allstar
2 time Cy Young award winner
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| | | 122 | Khahan
Donor
ID: 39432178
Mon, Dec 09, 2013, 14:12
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Some interesting points about Halladay that may surprise you (and yes I'm cherry picking these stats because these are traditional 'HoF' type stats:
Halladay: 15 season: 203-105 2117 k's 3.38 ERA
Bartolo Colon: 15 season: 189-128 1950 k's 3.94 era
Tim Wakefield: 19 seasons 200-180 2156K's 4.41 era
Orel Hershiser: 18 seasons 204-150 2014 K's 3.48 era
Vida Blue: 17 seasons 209-161 2175k's 3.27 ERA
Lefty Gomez: 14 season 189-102 1468k's 3.34 ERA
Thats a mixed bag. Some have similar w/l and K's but don't compare in ERA. But some like Vida Blue and Orel Hershiser give us a pretty close approximation to Halladay's career stats.
Lefty Gomez falls 1 seasons worth of wins short of halladays total (of course his losses would nudge up some). His ERA is similar but his K's fall far short.
Some are in the Hall of Fame. Some aren't. Of course we can play the "but player X is/isn't in so Halladay does/doesn't deserve to be in" game all day long. This is just a random batch of players with a few similarities in their stat lines. Its a mixed bag of HoF, Allstar and very good pitchers.
Personally, I think halladay falls short in my mind of what HoF stats should look like. He has the awards. He has the presence on the mound. He has the dominance of an era. But not the overall counting stats. But he doesn't fall so short that I'd be upset if he did get in.
Going to miss Roy Halladay, thats for sure.
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| | | 123 | Perm Dude
ID: 431013412
Tue, Dec 10, 2013, 13:27
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I agree--I think he falls a bit short. He was a dominating guy on the mound for some time, but the numbers just aren't there, IMO.
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| | | 124 | filthy
ID: 4157202
Wed, Dec 11, 2013, 04:47
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I'd vote Halladay no matter what. But going up against Rivera (and then some) would make it very tough to justify that opinion even if I had a vote.
Hoping/assuming that Maddux this year, and Randy Johnson next are no brainers. That would leave Pedro, Schilling, Clemens, Mussina, Glavine, and Smoltz as the potential company by the time Halladay gets to the ballot. Rivera definitely first ballot. I'd think Pedro and Glavine can make it in by the time Halladay gets there. (Guess of how many years it takes)
(1)Maddux 2014, 355-227 3.16, 5008.1, 3371
(1)RJ 2015, 303-166 3.29, 4135.1, 4875
(3)Pedro 2015, 219-100 2.93, 2827.1, 3154
(4)Glavine 2014, 305-203 3.54, 4413.1, 2607
That leaves Clemens, Smoltz, Mussina, and Schilling as the comparables. He is closest to Schilling in overall triple crown numbers. Halladay probably would have had to pitch like Pedro to increase his chances without Glavine type volume. I can't see a whole lot of pressure for a few years after Halladay hits the ballot though, so he might have a chance of climbing his way in there. If Mussina, Smoltz, and Schilling are in or close by Halladay's debut, I'd like his chances to eventually make it. Clemens would be first ballot if not for that big asterisk hovering around him, he'll likely survive long enough to see some smoke clear from all this, who knows how that will effect things though.
(5)Smoltz 2015, 213-155 3.33, 3473.0, 3084, 154sv
(13)Schilling 38.8%, 216-146 3.46, 3261.0, 3116
(??)Halladay 2019, 203-105 3.38, 2749.1, 2117
(??)Mussina 2014, 270-153 3.68, 3562.2, 2813
(**)Clemens 37.6%, 354-184 3.12, 4916.2, 4672
A lot of tough entrants this year, I think it'll just be Maddux. Morris, Biggio, Bagwell, Piazza, Raines see slight gains but still fall shy. Morris heartbreaker, Palmeiro might fall off the ballot too. Thomas and Glavine should see great debuts. Mussina and Kent nice debuts. Luis Gonzalez and Moises Alou may survive to the second year. All the predictions for now, always love looking at this stuff and seeing how my opinions change year to year.
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| | | 125 | filthy
ID: 4157202
Wed, Dec 11, 2013, 05:50
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Average 2.5 new players per ballot last year, should be around the same this time, maybe even worse. Gonna be a tough year to climb. My prediction for this year in brackets before the players name.
Last year with previous results shown:
(95)Maddux
(70)Thomas
(70)Morris 67.7% -66.7% -53.5% -52.3% -44.0% -42.9% -37.1% -41.2% -33.3% -(14)
(69)Biggio 68.2% -(1)
(60)Bagwell 59.6% -56.0% -41.7% -(3)
(58)Piazza 57.8% -(1)
(54)Raines 52.2% -48.7% -37.5% -30.4% -22.6% -24.3% -(6)
(45)Glavine
(44)LSmith 47.8% -50.6% -45.3% -47.3% -44.5% -43.3% -39.8% -45.0% -38.8% -(11)
(38)Schilling 38.8% -(1)
(35)Clemens 37.6% -(1)
(34)Bonds 36.2% -(1)
(33)EMartinez 35.5% -36.5% -32.9% -36.2% -(4)
(25)Mussina
(29)Trammell 33.6% -36.8% -24.3% -22.4% -17.4% -18.2% -13.4% -17.7% -16.9% -(12)
(20)Kent
(19)LWalker 21.6% -22.9% -20.3% -(3)
(18)McGriff 20.7% -23.9% -17.9% -21.5% -(4)
(15)McGwire 16.9% -19.5% -19.8% -23.7% -21.9% -23.6% -23.5% -(7)
(10)Mattingly 13.2% -17.8% -13.6% -16.1% -11.9% -15.8% -9.9% -12.3% -11.4% -(13)
(10)Sosa 12.5% -(1)
(5)LGonzalez
(5)MAlou
(5)Palmeiro 8.8% -12.6% -11.0% -(3)
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| | | 126 | Khahan
Donor
ID: 39432178
Thu, Dec 12, 2013, 13:28
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Here's something else interesting. Halladay's record of 203-105 is a 66% wining % which is pretty darned good. But his 308 combined wins and losses compared to 390 games started means he recorded a decision in 78.9% of his games started.
I'm not sure exactly how to express this but I've always felt a good quality pitcher is one who can be in the game long enough to affect its outcome. And I'd be willing to bet that a decision ratio is higher for good pitchers over a career (IE with a large pool of data). Not sure how to express this or exactly what it would be measuring. Obviously a bad pitcher could have a high decision ratio by losing every game..but he wont have a long career.
I wonder if there is any meaningful measurement that takes into account a pitchers W% in decisions vs the % of games started he gets any decision in. Or is it easier to just say 205 wins in 390 gs started is a better measurement.
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| | | 127 | blue hen
ID: 4739168
Thu, Dec 12, 2013, 17:14
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If you pitch worse but stay in longer, is that really a benefit? What about Quality Starts or Average Game Score?
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| | | 128 | filthy
ID: 4157202
Fri, Dec 13, 2013, 06:26
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Halladay's losses in his prime definitely felt tougher than a lot of pitchers. It's not so much the Yankees and Red Sox aces that would kill him regularly either, it was countless rookie pitchers that would come in and throw the game of their life against Halladay. I'll confidently guess that he had about a dozen losses in that fashion as a Jay, and I feel that might be modest. And it's not just Halladay, it's seems like an ace pitcher type thing sometimes. Think Matt Cain some years, or Johan Santana at times.
Is there a tough luck loss category? To lose while throwing a quality start is something that Halladay grew way too familiar with in Toronto. :(
The worst injuries of his prime were a comebacker broken leg and appendicitis. A couple little arm scares. Then this recent end of career. Add it all up and he lost 2-3 years worth of prime stats and another 2-3 years worth of non-prime stats potentially. Who's to say if missing the prime years didn't save his arm/back a bit though. It's easy to play what if, but it means nothing in the end.
Ultimately Halladay missed out on a lot of counting stats that Glavine, Maddux, Johnson & Mussina didn't miss. And every few starts he always seemed to have that one bad inning resulting in a tough loss no matter how dominant he'd seem, which cost even more counting stats plus kept his ratios just out of that elite Pedro territory. Does it even matter? He stands out from Jack Morris, Schilling and Mussina for me, but I'm pretty biased. (He actually stands out from Glavine and Smoltz to me as well, Maddux/Randro safe, I'm not totally nuts...)
All in all, it feels like somebody can finally stop using their Roy Halladay voodoo doll now, and let him retire in peace! The guy can't catch a break! Should've carried teams in Toronto to playoffs, and teams in Philly to rings, but always seemed so snakebitten. I already came to terms with missing him when he left the Jays and I could no longer watch all his starts with ease. But I had been holding out hope that they could bring him back as a free agent this year, I just didn't envision it going down like this! I'll still hold out hope that he unretires though. Will forever miss those dancin' fastballs and low pitch counts!
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| | | 129 | Khahan
Donor
ID: 39432178
Fri, Dec 13, 2013, 11:20
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"If you pitch worse but stay in longer, is that really a benefit? What about Quality Starts or Average Game Score?"
I kind of addressed this point by stating this is something that has to have a large pool of data and mention relating it to games won. With a large enough pool of data you smooth out the extremes from events like you mention.
QS doesn't do it for me. Its a good stat but it doesn't do quite what I'm looking for. A guy who goes out and pitches 6 solid innings every game just isn't doing the same thing as a Roy Halladay or CC Sabathia (both average getting to 2 outs in the 7th as opposed to say an Andy Benes who averaged getting to 2 outs in the 6th or Randy Wolf who barely averages hitting the 6th inning).
Like I said, I'm not even sure exactly what I'd be trying to show. It just seems like there would be some correlation between pitching deep enough into a game to earn a decision and the quality of a pitcher. Not even sure how to show that.
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| | | 130 | Perm Dude
ID: 431013412
Fri, Dec 13, 2013, 19:39
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SP's, of course, get screwed by the rules a bit in that they have to stay in for 5 IPs to get the win, but not for the loss.
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| | | 131 | Perm Dude
ID: 431013412
Wed, Jan 08, 2014, 14:11
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Maddux Glavine and Thomas.
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| | | 132 | Khahan
Donor
ID: 39432178
Wed, Jan 08, 2014, 14:39
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Awesome for Glavine and Maddux. Very awesome for Thomas. I think it is well deserved and am glad I guessed wrong at how the BBWAA would approach him.
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| | | 133 | GO
ID: 01020815
Wed, Jan 08, 2014, 14:45
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Maddux was a near-unanimous choice, garnering 97.2 percent of the vote. He was somehow left off 16 ballots. The four-time Cy Young Award winner and 18-time Gold Glove Award winner won 355 games over his 23-year career to go along with a 3.16 ERA. Glavine, who was on 91.9 percent of the ballots, was a two-time Cy Young Award winner and won 305 games during his career while posting a 3.54 ERA. Thomas, one of the game's most dominant sluggers during the 90s, received 83.7 percent of the vote. The two-time MVP produced a .301/.419/.555 lifetime batting line to go along with 521 home runs. Craig Biggio narrowly missed the 75 percent threshold by finishing on 74.8 percent of the ballots, but he'll at least carry some momentum in 2015. Mike Piazza, Jack Morris, Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Roger Clemens, and Barry Bonds rounded out the top part of the ballot
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| | | 134 | GO
ID: 01020815
Wed, Jan 08, 2014, 14:46
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I almost nailed it - I had Maddux, Glavine, Thomas and Biggio (so close!). I am truly a savant.
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| | | 135 | ChicagoTRS
ID: 149171815
Wed, Jan 08, 2014, 14:58
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Biggio will definitely get in next year. Been reading a lot of complaining about Biggio not making it but...I do not think it is a stretch to suspect him of being a juicer for at least part of his career...he was on a team that had some known users and Biggio has his best two HR years at age 38 and 39...not many (any) clean players put up their best power years at that age.
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| | | 136 | Khahan
Donor
ID: 39432178
Thu, Jan 09, 2014, 14:33
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This year there is 1 documented voter who only voted for jack morris and would not consider voting for anybody who played in the steroid era regardless of whether or not they were tied to roids.
There is another who, despite the hall ballot allowing for 10 people took it upon himself to limit his ballot to only 3 players. No more than that. He knows better than the HoF ballot rule makers.
Right there is your 2 votes for biggio to be in the hall of fame. Because of self-induced arrogance. Now, there are people who do not think Biggio is a HoF player. If they choose not to vote for him because they simply dont feel he deserves it, so be it. Possibly these 2 felt that way about him. But it doesn't sound like it (note the one guy didnt say he only felt there were 3 worthy players, he said he did not want too many going in at once, implying he felt more than 3 qualified).
Anybody who with holds a vote for a non-baseball or HOF regulation reason (IE: he bet on baseball is a reason to with hold, he used steroids could be a reason, he drank during games could be a reason, but "too many at once" or "nobody should be 100%" are not baseball reasons) should lose their vote. Of course enforcing that would be impossible.
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| | | 137 | Khahan
Donor
ID: 39432178
Thu, Jan 09, 2014, 14:39
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Also, Palmeiro off the ballot? I was surprised to see that happen and do think its a shame. That does NOT bode well for clemens, bonds, mcgwire or sosa.
I'll be curious to see how the veterans committee handles these guys.
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| | | 138 | C1-NRB
ID: 33002310
Wed, Jan 23, 2019, 17:10
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Here's a fun read considering yesterday's HOF announcement.
Originally posted in 2003, revisited in 2008, once in 2012, pre-season 2013, and semi-regularly through 2013-14 off-season.
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| | | 139 | Nerfherders
ID: 33543714
Thu, Jan 24, 2019, 12:18
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It certainly is! I think the biggest thing we couldn't foresee was the fallout of the steroid era. That took Palmeiro, Sosa, and Mcqwire out almost instantly (and probably Manny). In the group discussion of 2003 I think we mentioned most of the guys that ended up making it (or will make it soon). I don't think anyone mentioned Edgar tho, at the time. Maybe because a DH-only player never really was considered at the time. The voters since 2003 have softened a bit on DH's and closers. Just look at the veterans vote this year. Small-Hall guys are probably freaking out about Baines getting in.
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| | | 140 | Khahan
ID: 80441414
Thu, Jan 24, 2019, 13:54
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Maybe we should start this conversation again with active players ending 2018/going into 2019 (note, I didn't consider anybody with less than 5 full years in the bigs):
Locks:
Albert Pujols
Adrien Beltre
Miguel Cabrera
Justin Verlander
Will Likely Make it:
Clayton Kershaw
CC Sabathia
Need a few more years:
Max Scherzer
Mike Trout
Good Shots:
Robinson Cano
Jose Altuve
Giancarlo Stanton
Outside Shots:
Chris Sale
Zach Greinke
Jacob DeGrom
Bryce Harper
Manny Machado
Yadier Molina
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| | | 141 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Thu, Jan 24, 2019, 17:48
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I love how in the first post Nerf gave Mariano Rivera an "outside shot". 100% of the voters disagreed. :)
John Olerud asked if he still has an outside shot.
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| | | 142 | Nerfherders
ID: 33543714
Thu, Jan 24, 2019, 18:10
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In 2003 there were almost no closers in the Hall. Since then, we've had six, including Rivera and Smith this year. As I said, the voters have softened on closers over the years.
On the new list, I like the first 8, not sure about the rest. It's a new era and it's going to be tougher to judge these players against those in the steroid era.
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| | | 143 | Khahan
ID: 80441414
Fri, Jan 25, 2019, 10:42
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Honestly, Cano surprised me the most in my list - and bumping him up past outside shots.
But look at what he has done in his career so far:
career .304 BA .355 obp .493 slg and .848 ops
311 HR 2470 hits 1188 runs 1233 rbis'
Lets give him 3 more years at an average of 145 hits a year, 15hrs a year, 75 rbis and 70 runs a year.
His totals become:
2905 hits, 356 HR, 1458 rbi's, 1398 runs.
Throw in a RoY, top 5 in mvp voting 4 times, 8 All star games, 5 silver sluggers
He's currently 3rd among all active players in career WAR, 5th in runs scored, 4th in hits, 10th in home runs.
He has a big knock against in him testing positive for PED's last season, but I think by the time he's up for consideration, we will have seen bonds and clemens in the hall.
Cano was very surprising to look at his career work.
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| | | 144 | Nerfherders
ID: 2211442615
Fri, Jan 25, 2019, 12:33
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Cano for me is in the Hall of Very Good. There are a ton of guys with better numbers in this century that won't even sniff the hall, especially if they had any connection to PED's.
Look at Lance Berkman this year. That guy was insanely good, just didn't quite play long enough, and played in the era of bloated numbers. Off the ballot in one year.
The one thing Cano does have going for him is playing for the Yankees.
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| | | 145 | Khahan
ID: 80441414
Fri, Jan 25, 2019, 12:56
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Nerf - Berkman was great for many seasons. But his career just doesn't stack up in any serious hall of fame conversation:
1905 hits. Didn't even get to 2000, much less have a good chance at 3k like Cano does.
366 HR thru 15 season. Cano is just 10 shy of the power hitter Berkman in 14 seasons.
.293 BA, .406 OBP - these are pretty good. obp over 400 for a career is elite
1146 runs 1234 rbis again not bad but Cano is 1 year less played than Berkman and comparable or better in the counting stats.
They have similar hardware.
There is a reason Berkman fell off the ballot so fast, though. Berkman has 0 HoF on his similarity scores. Cano has Sandberg, Torre, George Brett, Carl Yazstremski, Cal Ripkin Jr and Ivan Rodriguez on his.
I like Berkman. I like him more than I like Cano. But these 2 aren't even close in comparisons, despite a few very similar categories.
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