Forum: base
Page 16283
Subject: RIBC - Draft Rationales, Rounds 1-5

  Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 08:57
This thread will be for managers in the RotoGuru Invitational Baseball Challenge to provide the rationale for each pick.

Here are the ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.)

2. Try to keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information.

Please post your comments at the time you make your pick. For example, you should post your comments for your round 1 pick when you make your round 3 selection. If you are not ready to post at that time, then, create a "placeholder" so that the next person is able to go ahead in sequence. When your post is ready, simply email it to me and I will insert it in your placeholder.

3. Once the draft is over, each manager is also encouraged to provide a general draft recap, at which time you can discuss your overall strategy, mention any undisclosed factors, comment on what worked out well and what didn't, etc.

 
1Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 08:58 		1.01 Alex Rodriguez, SS, NYY

Well, the real decision for me was not whether to take Arod with the first pick, but was which pick to take. I'd debated selecting the 5th or 6th pick so I could take either Beltran or Vlad. In the end, I opted to use the first pick and get Rodriguez who puts up comparable numbers to the top sluggers in the game (Pujols, Bonds, Vlad, etc.), but does this from a much weaker position.

Once I selected the first pick, I still thought about Pujols, but again the shortstop eligibility (and soon, 3b, for that matter) convinced me otherwise. Also, I look for Arod to put up big numbers this year. I think he will thrive under the spotlight and with the supporting cast he now has.
 
2beastiemiked
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 09:00 		1.02 Albert Pujols, 1B-OF, StL
Not much to rationalize here. He's been easily a top notch fantasy star the past 3 years. No reason to expect injury (knock on wood) nor a downturn in production. The clincher for him over guys like Helton and Bonds is his position eligibility. With our benches being so short having versatility is always a big plus.
 
3Tosh
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 09:01 		1.03 Alfonso Soriano, 2B, Tex
It was tough to consider passing on Soriano even though his OBP isn’t even close to the other top-tier players, but I definitely considered Helton or Beltran in this slot. The Texas stadium should help his power stats a bit, and it’s nice to get a few SBs taken care of early. I’ll need to explore the percentage categories with my next pick.
 
4Mattinglyinthehall
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 09:02 		1.04 Todd Helton, 1B, Col
Desiring a hitter in the 1st round, I hoped Helton wouldn't be gone by my pick, leaving me to decide between Beltran and Bonds. While many will point out that Bonds' OBP and SLG% are virtually unchallenged, age and numerous issues regarding steroids are potential factors weighing against him this season. Seemingly removed from his back problems and with a likely stronger lineup surrounding him than in '03, I felt Helton was a safer pick. I also preferred someone that will likely rank high in 4 of our league's categories, rather than someone who is likely to be the leader in 2, but not make much of a showing in the other 3.
 
5blue hen
Future Champion
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 09:02 		1.05 Mark Prior, P, ChC
Prior was actually #2 on my list, slightly ahead of Pujols. When I realized I wasn't going to get ARod, I decided to go down as far as I could to realistically get Prior. I realize now that I could have gone down a little farther and consoled myself a little better. Beltran, Vlad, and Bonds are also sufficient picks, so I could have taken number 8 and been that much higher on the way back. I almost took Bonds here, as a lot of people told me he was rated #1 in their systems, but I was scared off by age, declining value, and potential to not have as many at bats. Also, I'm usually better at getting hitters late, so I wanted to make sure I had at least one stud pitcher to start.
 
7Caper
      Donor
      ID: 1535108
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 09:28 		1.06 Carlos Beltran

I had him as a top 4 choice and felt lucky to get him at this pick. He is, IMHO, the premier 5 catagory guy in the draft. The line-up in KC should be improved and he is in a contract/free-agency year. All this combined to make him my choice.
 
9Peter N.
      Donor
      ID: 257161713
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 10:02 		1.07 Vladimir Guerrero

I was targeting Carlos Beltran originally with this pick, but he was taken right before me. I never really expected Vladdy to make it to me, but am glad to have him on the squad. He is a somewhat of a risk coming off a back injury last year, but I think its well worth the risk. The Angels were confident enough to invest $70 million in him so I’ll roll the dice with him this year. The 5 Cat potential is still strong for Guerrero, IMO. The only other player I considered was Bonds, but injuries are an issue with him too.
 
10smartone @work
      Donor
      ID: 29452720
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 10:16 		1.08 Barry Bonds

As discussed earlier, Bonds' SLG and OBP projected numbers are WAY beyond any other player in the league and he was co-ranked #1 (with ARod) in my computerized model. Noticing the aging decline in his SLG/OBP, I reduced the projections furthermore, and he was still ranked way beyond the other alternatives. Almost all other available players (rank 5-12 or so) are somewhat injury prone, and the other hitters which I considered (Sheff, Giambi, ManRam) are all "steroid friendly", so if one gets busted - it is likely that they will all share the same faith. The top pitchers (RJ, Pedro and Curt) aren't too young and all suffered injuries last year, so I ended up picking a player that .. emmm... I actually dislike...
 
11J
      Leader
      ID: 49346417
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 10:33 		1.09 Eric Gagne, RP, LA

Well, like I said, I didn't really love picking 9th after who was already taken in the first 8, I was hoping someone would've slid to me. But, my reasoning behind taking Gagne is, in a league with 16 teams, saves are usually the toughest category to accumulate, IMO. Getting a guy who you can pencil in for 40-50 saves is huge. Taking him in the first round may come back to bite me, but we'll see!
 
12jumpball
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 12:16 		1.10 Pedro Martinez, SP, Bos
In the mock drafts that I held in my head, I felt I had little hope of getting one of the top 7 hitters and expected to be picking Schilling. When Pedro was available, I had to decide betweeen the two. It was close, but changing leagues might hurt Schilling a tad, and I think having Schilling there might push Pedro a bit. If Pedro stays healthy, I've got a #1 pitcher who should excel in 4 categories.
 
13Species
      Leader
      ID: 7724916
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 13:20 		1.11 Curt Schilling, P - Bos

With the hitter options bunched so close I couldn't rationalize one over the other to the point where I would lose out on a frontline stud at the top of the rotation. Schilling has his risks, but my contacts in Boston tell me his is hugely pumped up for this season and wants to battle the Yankees. 18 wins, a 3.35 ERA and a sub-1.10 WHIP with 240+ strikeouts are my expectations here. Lofty yes, but within reach.

My other main consideration was Manny Ramirez, but other hitters were close enough to where I didn't feel he was a huge value.
 
14Ref
      Donor
      ID: 539581218
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 13:41 		1.12 Manny Ramirez - OF - Bos

I really didn't consider the fact that Manny would still be here. I take a look at some of these projections and things, but it really comes down to how I remember these guys last year and the makeup of their current teams and if they are improving or declining in numbers in my own mind. I didn't even have Manny on my radar as I was sure he would be gone. Although I think Beltran could have a huge year, I thought there was an outside possibility he could slip and go anywhere from 9-12. When Prior went at 5 and Beltran at 6, I knew there was going to be someone else slipping. Then when Gagne went at 9, I was wondering if Pedro or Schill were still going to be there. Then they went off right before me. I was scratching my head as there had to be someone else that slipped that I missed. Then there he was, just waiting for me. I'm sure him being a knucklehead and his occassional missed games helped, but even with all that, he really helped me in my 20 team league last year with his HRs and obp. There is no way I could pass him up.
 
15Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 13:54 		1.13 Roy Halladay, SP, Tor
I wanted to get one stud starter with either my first or second pick. There were a bunch of hitters still available that were all quite comparable, and I figured it made sense to snag Halladay now, and then get one of those hitters with the 20th pick.

Obviously, Halladay had a spectacular season last year, in spite of a lousy April. He’s only 26, so he could still be on the upslope. And he’s a workhorse. A good guy to anchor the rotation.
 
16Trip
      Donor
      ID: 13961611
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 14:36 		1.14 Nomar Garciaparra
Nomar was # 11 of the top 12 I was hoping to land with my first pick. The scarcity of SS is a major factor in Nomar's value. While the next 3 SS are close in value, the 4th (#6 overall) option is a clear dropoff from the top 5. Throw in the fact that Tejada, Renteria, Jeter would have been a stretch with my next pick (2.03), I doubt that any would have made it back to me at 3.14 (maybe Jeter). I am not saying that ARod is in Nomar's class, but noone in ARod's class was going to be available with this pick. That being said, I was hoping Pedro would fall to me here. Other players considered: Sheffield.
 
17darkside
      Dude
      ID: 3590317
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 14:42 		1.15 Randy Johnson, P, Ari

It's not hard to justify taking one of the best pitchers in the last 10 years, unless he just came off a less than stellar, injury plagued season. Then, it's just a risk. That's the motto of my team this year, I think. If there's no risk, we don't want you. Well, RJ could be huge or he could be the second year in a row I wasted a high draft pick. I'm hoping he comes through with the low era and high K numbers he's put up in his Cy Young seasons (I'm hoping for wins too, but he STILL plays for AZ, so you never know what kinda run support he'll get). Time will tell.
 
18KrazyKoalaBears
      Leader
      ID: 517553018
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 14:48 		1.16 Bobby Abreu - OF - PHI

As I mentioned in the discussion thread, I had Abreu ranked pretty high because of his upside potential. The decline over the last 2 seasons is of a bit of concern, but I like the lineup he's in. Further, when I compared his 2001 stats to guys like Sheffield, I saw the potential for him to do better than all the other hitters I had listed around him on my draft sheet.

Here's hoping 2004 is closer to 2001 than 2003.

 
19KrazyKoalaBears
      Leader
      ID: 517553018
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 14:57 		2.01 Tim Hudson - P - OAK

I wanted a pitcher who could go out there for 230+ innings, keep a sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.2 WHIP. Yeah, don't we all? Enter Tim Hudson. I admit there's a bit of an Auburn Tiger bias here as I watched him play all his Junior and Senior years. The dominating player I saw there is the dominating player I expect to see in 2004. Though I may be dreaming, I don't think 20 wins, 200 K's, and a WHIP close to, or under, 1.10 are out of the question. If he hits those marks, he'll be last year's Halladay and I'll be more than happy with that for the 17th overall pick.

Like Abreu, tons of upside potential here as he's only 28 years old (3 days younger than me :)

 
20darkside
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 16:10 		2.02 Jason Schmidt, SP, S.F.
This will probably be the scariest pick of my draft. To take someone so high who just had a serious offseason surgery is a risk that even my risk-themed team maybe should not have taken. Time will tell. Last year was amazing. Outstanding in all pitching categories, if he produces anywhere near that level again, it will have been worth it....WHIP under 1, one of the tops in the leageue in SO, excellent ERA. But, it's a big if.

At this spot I seriously considered Magglio and Slammy. Didn't want Sheff as I think he played over his head last year. Thome and Delgado were possibilities, but it really came down to Schmidt, Mags and Sammy. I took the guy I thought could have the best season. My gut did most of the work. Here's hoping it pays off.

 
21Trip
      Donor
      ID: 13961611
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 16:14 		2.03 Gary Sheffield - OF - NYY
#12 of the top 12 I was hoping to land with my first pick. I was surprised he fell to me here. No other players seriously considered at this point. Age/BALCO considered, but were not enough of a factor to override my projections for him. This new report does have me worried though. I would probably have taken Delgado after hearing this new report. This is going to be interesting.
 
22Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 16:20 		2.04 Jim Thome, 1B, Phi
I wanted a hitter this time. The top three on my board were Thome, Delgado, and Giles. Giles was highly ranked by a number of sources, but I just couldn’t get comfortable with him as my stud hitter, relying on a significant upgrade from last year’s numbers –even though there were lots of reasons for optimism. Delgado is coming off a career year, but I wasn’t sure I wanted two Blue Jays for my first two picks – although I can’t think of why that should matter, frankly. Although Thome strikes out a lot, he also walks more than 100 times/year, and benefits from using OBP vs. batting average. Supposedly, the new stadium in Philly favors left handed power hitters, too.

Bottom line, I don’t need an upgrade over last year, or a repeat of a career year, to justify Thome at this time. “Same old, same old…” will be just fine. Plus, as a Tribe fan, I've always liked Thome - even when he bolted.
 
23Ref
      Donor
      ID: 539581218
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 16:30 		2.05 Carlos Delgado - 1B - Tor

My thinking was in line with Guru. I had Thome as my clearcut favorite at this point over Delgado. It's really not that much of a difference. In fact, if you use last year's numbers, Delgado becomes the clear-cut favorite. But seeing that Philly's park will be more friendly to Thome and his team should be better, I liked him. Once Thome was gone, my pick was obvious to me. He has the ability, like Thome, to catch fire and stay that way for a long period of time. He also hits a lot of doubles and what may be most important is the fact that he's in his contract year. Pairing him up with Manny with my first pick, gives me a solid foundation in slg and the other stats that come with that.
 
24Species
      Leader
      ID: 7724916
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 19:01 		2.06 Brian Giles - OF - San Diego

This was a huge tossup for me. There were 3 players all bunched together: Giles, Ordonez and Berkman. While I believe Berkman's 2003 to be a fluke of a bad year, it's hard to justify him over consistent studs like Giles and Magglio. Giles' superiority in the ratio categories proved to me to be the winner, as he sports a 3-year average OBP of .427 (vs. Magglio's .381) and SLG of .576 (to Magglio's .558). Runs and steals are about even, although Magglio's 115 RBI average outweighs Giles' 95 average RBI. I'm hopeful a revamped Padres lineup will boost that RBI total this year.
 
25jumpball
      Leader
      ID: 49346417
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 19:57 		2.07 Kerry Wood - SP - ChC
My thought process for this pick was exactly like Guru's in his comments on 2.04. I had the same 3 hitters on my list and 3 people picking before me. When all 3 were gone, I didn't want to reach for the next tier hitter, so I took Kerry Wood to give me what I hope to be the best 1-2 pitching in the league.
 
26J
      Leader
      ID: 49346417
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 20:05 		2.08 Magglio Ordonez CWS OF

Ordonez has always been good to me in TSN and whats not to like about a top notch outfielder in a contract year!! I had to get an outfielder while good ones still existed
 
27smartone
      Donor
      ID: 29452720
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 20:16 		2.09 Edgar Renteria

According to my "magical" database, I had to pick between Bret Boone and Renteria and decided to go with the younger guy. Frankly speaking, I am less familiar with the NL (in the 2 years that I follow MLB, I get to watch mainly Yankee games) but the great projections for Renteria, together with the limited supply of Short-Stops at the time of the pick led to my decision.
 
28Peter N.
      Donor
      ID: 257161713
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 21:07 		2.10 Miguel Tejada

After taking an outfielder with my 1st pick, my attention turned towards the infield. Shortstop, in particular, is the position I wanted to address with my next pick. I had narrowed it down to Renteria and Tejada and was debating on who I wanted to take. Smartone ended up making the choice for me as he snagged Renteria right before me. Tejada is certainly a nice consolation. He let himself get distracted by the off-the-field issues regarding his contract last year, but that won’t be a problem for him this year. Along with that, Camden Yards is more appealing to hitters as opposed to Network Associates Coliseum. I fully expect Tejada to rebound this year in the middle of an improved Baltimore lineup.
 
29Caper @ Home
      ID: 42256216
      Tue, Mar 02, 2004, 21:41 		2.11 JavierVazquez

I wanted a stud pitcher to anchor my pitching staff. I can see Vazquez being a Cy Young candidate with his ability and the backing of the Yankees. That is the type of pitcher I was looking for.
 
30blue hen got laid
      ID: 2421223
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 00:02 		2.12 Jason Giambi

Haha suckers! I couldn't believe Jason Giambi was still available 28 picks into the draft. He's clearly one of the best hitters in baseball, and the OPS format we're using pushes him even higher. Not only that, but now he's got Gary Sheffield and Alex Rodriguez to support him, and a Yankee lineup that should score a million runs. After taking a pitcher with the first pick, I have no problem whatsoever with Giambi as my cornerstone hitter.
 
31Mattinglyinthehall
      ID: 217351118
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 06:56 		2.13 Lance Berkman

It may be surprising to some, but I had Berkaman almost even with Magglio and B Giles, the two OF most recently taken before him. Berk's overall decline never included OBP or Runs, as he ranked 7th in the NL in each in 2003. My biggest concern is his lefty/righty split as a switch hitter. In the last 3 years, he shows a .613/.424 SLG% split. Fortunately, his 2003 SLG from the right was actually .080 better in '03 than it was in '02, despite of an overall off year. So if he is over the wrist/elbow injuries that plagued him in '03, I see no reason why he shouldn't bounce back nicely.
 
32Tosh
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 07:27 		2.14 Sammy Sosa, OF, ChC
As the draft was about 5 picks away from me, I wrote out a queue of 4 players, but all 4 disappeared by the time my turn came around and I found myself scrambling. I considered Rolen, but went with the marquee name. Sosa has certainly seen a decrease in power numbers the last three years (SLG% - .737, .594, .553 and OBP - .465, .399, .358), but I don't expect any further decline this season. If he can cut down on the strikeouts, he'll have a fine season.
 
33beastiemiked
      ID: 2601988
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 09:22 		2.15 Scott Rolen, 3B, STL

I didn't think I would have a shot at Rolen in the 2nd round but he ended up slipping to me. He's a great player at a weak position. He brings the whole package including some SB's. The only other players I thought about were Mussina and Boone(both were gobbled up by Slack).
 
34Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 48927711
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 09:26 		2.16 Bret Boone
3.01 Mike Mussina

Well as I was waiting for bmd to pick, I had it narrowed down to Rolen, Boone, and Mussina. I really wanted to get a top-tier pitcher and Mussina was at the top of my list remaining. Boone and Rolen have pretty similar numbers, good percentages as well as high run and rbi totals which is valuable for infielders. I had originally targeted Posada with one of these picks, but when it got around to me, some guys were available that I'd anticipated going higher.

The difficulty with picking on the ends is that you know of the four or five guys you're trying to decide between none of them will be available the next time around.
 
35beastiemiked
      ID: 2601988
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 09:49 		3.02 Billy Wagner, P, Phi

I might've jumped the gun on Wagner but my next pick wasn't for another 28 picks. I figured I'd rather get a stud closer too early rather than wait and get a 2nd tier closer who might not even get me 30 saves. If Wagner stays healthy anything below 35 saves would be considered a disappointment. I had targeted a closer with this pick so the only other guy I was considering was Foulke.
 
36Tosh
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 09:53 		3.03 Keith Foulke, RP, Bos
It's a long time until I pick again, and I'm not ready to give up on the saves category yet. I love how this guy can pitch more than one inning and get you a win occasionally (9 last season), but with the team the Red Sox are putting on the field now, he'll hopefully get lots of save opportunities. Great numbers in WHIP, ERA, and definitely a top-tier closer.
 
38Mattinglyinthehall
      Leader
      ID: 1629107
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 10:22 		3.04 Josh Beckett

After taking the best available hitters (IMO) in the first two rounds, I knew that I would have to take a pitcher in round 3. My first choice was Mussina, who unfortunately was selected 3 picks earlier. The former top pitching prospect in baseball suffered no ill effects from his elbow strain that put him on the DL in '03, pitching much better after his return. The loss of Irod and Lee will surely hurt his run support, but he plays in a division with only one offensive powerhouse, so that shouldn't be too much of a liability. Here's to a blister-free spring!
 
39blue hen
      ID: 331038201
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 10:23 		3.05 Mike Piazza, C, NYM

37 picks in and I get the guy I rate #1 at a position. Granted, Piazza comes with a LOT of question marks, but he was too good to pass up at this time. He's been terrific the last couple years, mostly without fanfare, and he was even better before that. Playing a lot of games at first base, I expect him to avoid the injury bug and hit .300 with 30 homers, and a lot of walks, which really help in this league.

The number 2 guy in my queue was Edmonds, who managed to make it all the way back to me.
 
40Caper
      Donor
      ID: 1535108
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 10:27 		3.06 Chipper Jones-OF-Atl

This was a tough one for me. I was really looking hard at Sexson for this slot, to get some top position players.I ended up with Chipper because he has been consistent, fairly healthy and projects, in my numbers in this format, with the top 15-20 hitters. I must admit that I was a little swayed by the possibility, however remote, that he may end up playing some third base before this season ends.
 
41Peter N.
      Donor
      ID: 257161713
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 10:36 		3.07 Richie Sexson

I waffled with what to do with my 3rd pick. I could
A) grab another outfielder for insurance on Guerrero
B) address my need at pitching, or
C) keep the pick in the infield.

Well, I ended up keeping my 3rd pick in the infield and went after another slugger. Sexson is now out of a woeful situation in Milwaukee and has moved to a Ballpark favorable to hitters. I’m expecting even bigger things for Sexson this year. He should provide a good SLG% and a nice OBP% to go with it. 130 RBIs is also not out of the question in my mind. Bagwell was the only other player I gave some consideration to, but I question whether he can stay healthy for a whole year at this point in his career.
 
42smartone @work
      Donor
      ID: 29452720
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 12:17 		3.08 Jeff Kent

the availability of productive 2B was starting to run out, and I narrowed my selection to Kent and Vidro. I picked Kent since his projections were slightly higher and eventually I was extremely lucky to get Vidro the next time around to form a solid trio of MI
 
43J
      ID: 4720310
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 13:24 		3.09 Barry Zito, P, OAK

I hadn't taken a starting pitcher yet through 2 rounds, so I lost out on a true stud, so I knew I wanted a pitcher here. It came down to Zito or Oswalt, and I remembered how much I hated how Jimy Williams deals with his starters and felt that was reason enough to go with Zito!
 
44Jumpball
      Leader
      ID: 1629107
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 13:27 		3.10 Jorge Posada - C - NYY
I targeted Kent or Chipper for my first hitter pick, thinking that more pitching might be taken in round 3. Of course both of them were gone. After considering who was left, I narrowed it down to Marcus Giles and Posada -- 2 players at weak positons that were significantly ahead of the next tier players. I took Posada because his rbi potential was better and of the overall weakness at the catcher position.
 
45Species
      Leader
      ID: 7724916
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 15:34 		3.11 Marcus Giles - 2b - Atlanta

Look it up. In this league Giles was a stud last year. Great OBP and SLG for a 2b, 100 runs, 14 steals and 69 RBI. I felt the dropoff after Giles at the 2b position was steeper than other positions so I decided to snap him up.
 
46Ref
      Donor
      ID: 539581218
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 15:50 		3.12 John Smoltz - P - Atl

This pick was driving me crazy. On one hand Oswalt was still on the board and if I took Smoltz now, I didn't think he would still be there, while guys like Rivera etc. may still be there. I looked around and thought I could find a guy closer to Oswalt on my next pick better than I could find a guy like Smoltz. Reason being, Smoltz is saying he's close to 100%. While the Braves may not be as good and he may not get as many saves as before, he said he wants to pitch more often and in non-save situations. This should help his era/whip and K numbers even more and could mirror and MR and Closer all wrapped into one. While some people may think this is a reach, it could wind up being a huge steal if he performs like the Smoltzie of old.
 
47Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 16:43 		3.13 Eric Chavez, 3B, Oak
Third base can be a tough position to find quality. I wanted a hitter here, and my short list included Chavez, Preston Wilson, Vernon Wells, and Marcus Giles. Giles was taken 2 picks earlier, and although I had the two outfielders rated slightly higher, I thought that reasonable outfielders would be more plentiful in later rounds, whereas I might have to reach for a third baseman. Since Chavez was not a reach at this point, I took him.

At age 26, Chavez should still be heading toward his prime years. And as a free agent at the end of the season, he certainly has incentive to make it a career year. Here’s hoping
 
48Trip
      Donor
      ID: 13961611
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 17:01 		3.14 Vernon Wells - OF - Tor
At 25, Wells is looking to improve on a great year last year and reported to camp 20 pounds lighter. Maybe he will improve his SB totals as well. Wells was the highest rated player according to my rankings, though Preston Wilson was a close second. This was a no-brainer between Wells and Wilson. I had Wells at #20 and Preston Wilson at #21 while the next highest available player on my rankings was at #31. I might have taken K. Brown here (my 4.03 pick), but I didn't think KKB or darkside would take another SP. Javy Lopez was also a serious consideration with this pick.
 
52darkside
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 18:53 		3.15 Jeff Bagwell, 1B, Hou
With my first two picks going for pitchers I needed someone with pop in their bat with this one. It was looking like a lot of the power hitting 1B were going quickly, and I wanted power at first, so I looked at Bagwell, Huff and Lee. Bags is getting up there in age, so that was a concern, but he's been so reliable throughout his career that I figured he can probably put up 30/100/100 again, hopefully giving him a reasonable SLG. His BB were down last year and his HR up, so I'm hoping maybe he can reverse one of those trends and keep the other.

Also gave serious consideration to Preston Wilson, Javy and Pudge. My strategy is rather haphazard right now...a lot of it is just looking to see who the best guy out there is and then seeing if he fits on my team.

 
53KrazyKoalaBears
      Leader
      ID: 517553018
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 19:10 		3.16 Derrek Lee - 1B - CHC

Honestly, this and my next pick came down to past experience. In the past, I've had more trouble getting points from my hitters than from my pitchers, so I decided to forgo pitchers with these 2 picks and instead focus on hitting needs. In Lee, I have a 1B who will be above average in R, RBI, SLG, and OBP and will still a few bases. I took a moderate risk with my first 2 picks and played it a little safer with Lee, choosing someone who has consistently, though moderately, gotten better during a young career. He's also someone who could easily get 162 games at 1B. Like Ronco, I can set it and forget it.

 
54KrazyKoalaBears
      Leader
      ID: 517553018
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 19:15 		4.01 Eric Hinske - 3B - TOR

As far as stats are concerned, I see a lot of similarities between Derrik Lee and Hinske. In fact, on my cheat sheet, I had them ranked within 10 spots of each other overall for hitters. Same story with good R, RBI, SLG, and OBP and a decent number of SB. And I think that without last year's injuries, he would have improved on his rookie year stats. Because of that, and the reports that he's dropped some pounds and is "completely healthy," I like the chances that he'll rebound to, and likely beyond, his 2002 stats. Another safe pick to round out my infield corners.

 
55Darkside
      ID: 2210302613
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 19:20 		4.02 Javy Lopez - C - Bal
Having gotten 1B with my last pick, I was mainly trying to decide between Javy, Pudge and Wilson. Again, Wilson worries me. Pudge, while a great catcher, is gonna be in Detroit, so I can't imagine he'll have a lot of opportunity for offensive output and could even end up unhappy when he realizes how bad they are. That left me thinking about Javy. The one real issue there is: was last year a fluke? Obviously, I don't think so. From what I've read a lot of it was attributed to his conditioning, which has continued. Too, I really think Bal will have a productive lineup, and with him hitting between Raffy and Gibbons, think he'll have good pitches to hit and excellent R and RBI opportunity. Finally, I assume he'll have a good chance of being the DH when he needs a rest. So, I thought I'd put some production in a spot out of which it is often difficult to get anything.
 
56Trip
      ID: 2210302613
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 19:22 		4.03 Kevin Brown - SP - NYY
Before the draft I grouped the players in my ranking into position tiers based upon where I saw a drop off in player quality. Kevin Brown and Roy Oswalt were the last two pitchers in the "B" group for starting pitchers. I also wanted to make sure that I got a starting pitcher that was in my "A" or "B" class. Both of these players have had a recent history of injury, but Oswalt's history is more recent. Strikeouts and ratios between Brown and Oswalt should be similar as well, and whoever puts up more innings should be the better player this year. I also think Brown has an advantage in the wins department with the sickening Yankee lineup to back him up.
 
57Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 23:16 		4.04 Preston Wilson, OF, Col
He was on my short list for 3.13, and although he is still recovering from finger surgery, it sounds like he should be ready by April 1. His only weakness is OBP, and it sounds like a few extra steals might even be on the horizon, as Clint Hurdle says he wants to run more this year. Hopefully he doesn’t get traded away from the Rockies. I don’t think anything is in the wind, but you never know.

I thought long and hard about Roy Oswalt. I was surprised to see him still available in round 4, as I had considered him as an alternative to Halladay in the first round, and thought he would be gone by the middle of round 2. I guess people are worried about his groin surgery. In the end, I decided to stick with my plan of going for hitting, thinking that two pitching studs at this stage were a luxury, but not a necessity.
 
58Ref
      Donor
      ID: 539581218
      Wed, Mar 03, 2004, 23:38 		4.05 Roy Oswalt - P - Hou

This is the first real steal I've gotten in the draft (depending how Smoltzie does). I almost got him with my last pick as I said before. When hitters kept going I thought no way he gets back to me. Then Hinske went higher than expected. Then when KB went, I was sure Oswalt would go next. Then Guru said something about his player was still there along with a pitcher. I was thinking, 'c'mon Guru, stick with your hitter, don't take him.' When Guru took Wilson, I thought I'd better be sure that Oswalt is still the opening day starter and the stud that he's supposed to be and 100% healthy. Everything I could find indicated he was good to go so I grabbed him. This guy could be a legit 1st rounder that I was able to get here, so I was pretty happy with myself. We shall see how the season progresses...
 
60Species
      Leader
      ID: 7724916
      Thu, Mar 04, 2004, 00:12 		4.06 Derek Jeter - SS - NYY

These days Derek Jeter is a bit overrated - a product of both Yankee lore and four World Series Championships. He is definitely behind Renteria these days, but at pick #42 he is a value pick at this point. His roughly .400 OBP is terrific and right in line with what I wanted for my team. Batting 2nd (or first if Lofton sits at some point) in the potent, potentially record-setting Yankee lineup gives him the opportunity to lead the league in runs scored. 25 steals would be nice, but I'll settle for 20.
 
61jumpball
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 04, 2004, 10:08 		4.07 Luis Gonzalez, OF, Ari
Yes, I heard the "You're kidding?" comments for this pick. My goal was to get a player with a great OBS and Luis was .934 last year, and that was in an off year. I believe that he'll be better this year with Sexson hitting behind him. Yes, this was a little bit of a reach, but the alternatives that I considered did not have the upside. Vidro should drop a little this year without Vlad around, Sweeney should do well this year, but his OBS last year was .858. The only other player that tempted me was Mulder -- but I've already drafted 2 starters.
 
62J
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 04, 2004, 10:09 		4.08 Aubrey Huff, 1B/OF, TB
I was actually torn between Juan Pierre and Ichiro, then I decided I'd pass on them and go for Huff, hoping I'd get either Pierre or Ichiro on the way back. Didn't quite work out that way, but I have some flexibility now with Huff eligible at either 1B or OF. With an improving Tampa Bay offense, and he's just about ripe to have a huge year.
 
63smartone @work
      Donor
      ID: 29452720
      Thu, Mar 04, 2004, 10:20 		4.09 Jose Vidro

What a great feeling to get the guy who I passed on the previous round waiting for me 16 or so picks later. By locking Vidro, Kent and Renteria into my lineup, I will have a strong trio in the weakest position of this game which can somewhat offset possible problems with my Barry Bonds.
 
64Peter N.
      Donor
      ID: 257161713
      Thu, Mar 04, 2004, 10:22 		4.10 Mark Mulder

After drafting 3 straight hitters, my attention turned towards building a pitching staff. I was hoping Roy Oswalt would slide to me, but after he was taken, Mulder was who I pretty much set on. I did have some interest in Johan Santana, but thought there was a better chance of him making it back to me. I consider Mulder in the 4th round to be very solid. He’s an innings eater and makes quick work of the opponents when he is on his game. All reports have him recovered fully from the hip injury which shut him down last year. Latest news does report him having back spasms, but that doesn’t appear to be serious. I expect him to anchor my staff and contribute nicely to Wins, ERA and WHIP.
 
65Caper
      Donor
      ID: 1535108
      Thu, Mar 04, 2004, 10:34 		4.11 Mike Sweeney

I now have 2 OF and a solid starter but have been missing many of the top-tier infielders. Sweeney is, assuming health, a solid hitter who will produce SLG, OBP, RBI and some runs. I now have 2 Royals hitters but I do expect that line up to produce and Sweeney to be a large part of it. If he stays healthy enough to get 520+ AB, I believe he will be worth the selection.
 
66blue hen
      ID: 4300290
      Thu, Mar 04, 2004, 13:25 		4.12 Jim Edmonds, OF

My queue in round 3 was 1. Piazza 2. Edmonds, so I was quite pleased when Edmonds made it all the way back to me. Barring injury, Edmonds is really one of the best overall players in baseball. He walks, hits for power, and occasionally even runs a bit. I love his defense too, although that doesn't help here. I briefly hoped Jeter might make it back here, just because of his potential to score 200 runs.

I also enjoyed the discussion after I posted.
 
67Mattinglyinthehall
      Leader
      ID: 1629107
      Thu, Mar 04, 2004, 14:16 		4.13 Morgan Ensberg

This is one rising star that I believe will actually exceed his Rotowire 2004 projections, especially for OBP, where they guess he will come down .005 from his career avg to .363. The only thing potentially holding him back is his quirky manager, who seems to lack confidence in him for some reason and will likely be reluctant to put him in the middle of the order (he is currently expected to hit 2nd). But #3 and #4 hitters with declining offensive skills (Bagwell and Kent), Jimy Williams might find himself more dependant on Ensberg's power prowess than he realizes today.
 
68Tosh
      Sustainer
      ID: 57721710
      Thu, Mar 04, 2004, 14:51 		4.14 Ichiro Suzuki, OF, SEA

I need to get a couple infielders and a starting pitcher with my next two picks, but decided on Ichiro (an admittingly ‘homer’ pick) for this one. We’ll never see 2001 numbers again, but he’ll give me plenty of runs and SBs, while not hurting me in the other 3 categories, and is a nice compliment next to Sosa.
 
69beastiemiked
      ID: 2601988
      Thu, Mar 04, 2004, 15:08 		4.15 Johan Santana, SP, MIN

I had projected Santana to go earlier in the draft so I was very surprised to still see him around. He was one of the best 2nd half pitchers last year and put up very solid overall numbers. His K/IP is awesome, if he can pitch 200 ip and keep that ratio then he will be a steal. He's a slight risk at this point but he had too much upside to pass on him.
 
70Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 48927711
      Thu, Mar 04, 2004, 16:00 		4.16 Juan Pierre, OF, Fla

Well, I'm sure Pierre was on everyone's radar. He was among the players I was debating 32 picks previously. His presence alone is enough to place me in the top couple of spots in stolen bases, assuming he stays healthy. However, he contributes very little in slugging and Rbi's for an outfielder. I decided to go with my original rankings where I had him ranked considerably higher than anyone else available, and take the help in runs and stolen bases.
 
71Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 48927711
      Thu, Mar 04, 2004, 16:09 		5.01 Bartolo Colon, P, Ana

Again, I opted to go with another strong starting pitcher. Colon is a hoss; he pitches a lot of innings with a good number of K's, and I now expect him to get 17-18 wins or so with the solid Anaheim team. I was also looking at Rivera with this pick, but I took a chance that the closer run wouldn't happen this go-round.
 
72beastiemiked
      ID: 2601988
      Thu, Mar 04, 2004, 16:18 		5.02 Rafael Furcal, SS, ATL

He's one of the last proven SS's in the draft. Besides injury there isn't much risk in this pick. He fills a scarce position and provides a decent OBP and steals. His numbers shouldn't improve(no way he gets as many runs as he did last year) but if he gets close to his numbers last year than I'll be happy.
 
73Tosh
      Sustainer
      ID: 57721710
      Thu, Mar 04, 2004, 16:23 		5.03 Orlando Cabrera, SS, Mon

This is one of those position scarcity picks. When I look 26 picks into the future for my next selection, I see some viable corner infielders and starting pitchers being available, but not many shortstops. I targeted Furcal, but am happy with Cabrera. Last year he set career highs in average (.297), HRs (17), hits (186), and OPS (.807). With Guerrero gone from Montreal, he’ll be asked to shoulder more of the offensive load, and hopefully won’t falter. But don't you hate when you read about a new injury about 4 hours after you draft a player?
 
75Mattinglyinthehall
      Leader
      ID: 1629107
      Thu, Mar 04, 2004, 16:54 		5.04 Brandon Webb

I may regret not taking a middle infielder with this pick, but I really felt that the makeup of the top SP talent on the table was so far and away better than the collection of tablesetters that it was worth waiting another round for a 2b or SS. My OBP and SLG% cats were doing very well up to this point, so I gambled that I'd be able to absorb a player or two that are deficient in one or both stats without setting me back too far. I won't be able to make a fair assessment until later in the draft, but at the time of this writing I am not disappointed.
 
76blue hen
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 04, 2004, 17:03 		5.05 Mariano Rivera, start of closer run

The next 24 picks saw these players drafted: Dotel, Percival, Guardado, Rhodes, Isringhausen, Hoffman, Julio, Benitez, Borowski. That's nine closers and Rivera is the best of the bunch. I really made the right choice and I'm very happy about it. My best pick to date.

I almost took Blalock, but since Glaus fell to me, I have NO problem with that whatsoever.
 
79Caper
      Donor
      ID: 1535108
      Thu, Mar 04, 2004, 19:00 		5.06 Octavio Dotel

It seemed time to ensure that I was able to be in the save race. I was primed to take Rivera here, but the Hen took him. With the improved pitching staff in Houston and the expectations they have, along with the dominance Dotel has shown in set-up roles in recent years, he was my next choice. I considered a few others but they all seeemed to have some minor health issues and I am expecting 35+ saves in this spot.
 
80Peter N.
      Donor
      ID: 257161713
      Thu, Mar 04, 2004, 19:33 		5.07 Hank Blalock

From the very beginning of the draft, I had my mind set on drafting Blalock. (Disclaimer to the League: I am a Rangers fan and think this guy has unbelievable potential that has only just begun to show.) My only question was what round would I take him. I got real nervous when Morgan Ensberg came off the board. The draft was still 9 picks away from me at that point and I began to wonder if I waited one round too late to get Hank. Turns out that I didn’t. Blalock will fill my need at 3rd base nicely. I have him ranked 3rd at his position (behind Rolen and Chavez) His numbers against left-handed pitching is a concern, but I think he will improve sufficiently in that area. The only other consideration I had with this pick was possibly taking a closer, especially with two straight going before me. In the end though, I just couldn’t pass up on Blalock. Hank, along with Richie Sexson and Miguel Tejada, now gives me a powerful infield combined with Guerrero that will keep me competitive in most hitting categories
 
82smartone
      ID: 35254317
      Thu, Mar 04, 2004, 21:59 		5.08 Troy Percival

This was the first time in the draft that I was stuck, not sure whether to continue the strategy I planned or not. There were too many alternatives to chose from with little advantage to any of them. Since nobody wanted to trade my pick, I narrowed my selection to 2 Angels (Garret and Troy) and ended up with my first Pitcher on the roster. There are less than 16 relaible closers, so this was the time to pull one of the better ones to myself, and eventually, many other closers were picked among the next 10 or so draft picks. I have a projection of 2 35 56 3.16 1.13 for Percival, but with the enhanced Angels line-up, I hope that he can reach 40 saves (assuming he is healthy).

Since some of the other Gurupies are using numerical projections in their drafting decisions, I was wondering if you find it informative to share our projected numbers as part of the Rational thread.
 
83J
      Leader
      ID: 49346417
      Thu, Mar 04, 2004, 22:02 		5.09 Ivan Rodriguez - C - Det

Coming into round 5, my queue was: Pierre, Ichiro, Blalock, Cabrera. All of whom went within the last 5 picks :( dont you love it when that happens? So, after missing out on those guys, I went in a total different direction. There's only so many offensive producing catchers, and, I got one! Who knows how playing in Detroit will affect him. Not only with the huge ballpark, but with a not-so-good lineup, he'll get less to hit...higher OBP??? :)
 
84jumpball
      Leader
      ID: 7724916
      Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 01:18 		5.10 Frank Thomas - 1b - CHW
It was hard to pass up his stats at this stage of the draft. He should keep me happy in both the percentage categories even though I expect a little dropoff from last year. I also considered Mike Lowell, Shawn Green and a couple of closers. Thought I'd have a better chance of getting the closer next pick than I would either of the 3 hitters.
 
85Species
      Leader
      ID: 7724916
      Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 01:28 		5.11 Greg Maddux - SP - CHC

Okay, I blew it. I choked. I rushed myself and I shouldn't have allowed that to happen and reached.

The thought process was this - only 1 team of the 5 that draft after me in this round had their 2nd SP yet, so I thought I'd beat them to the punch this round. The three I narrowed it down to were Maddux, Matt Morris and Kevin Millwood. Morris was my initial choice, but upon reading up on him and his struggles in the 2nd half (and I should know, Guru and I had him in the PROFL league) with the shoulder injury kinda scared me off.

My hope at this point, in hindsight, is that Maddux wins 15 games, posts a 3.50 ERA and has a WHIP under 1.20. I know the K's are declining but with Schilling my rock I felt I could withstand the low K's in exchange for what I hope to be solid ratios. Perhaps Maddux' return to his Cub roots, combined with him wanting to show the young guns that the old dog can still bring it, rolled up into a Cubbie push towards a division title and possible World Series birth will motivate the Mad Dog to a very solid year. While he's getting up there in age, and he's not going to lead the league in innings, he's been durable.
 
86Ref
      Donor
      ID: 539581218
      Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 03:26 		5.12 Shawn Green, OF, LA

I thought Species might grab him, but when he didn't, I wanted to get him now rather than wait and him not be there for me. Even with Green playing all year with a shoulder that needed surgery, he still did very well in Slg% as a lot of homers turned up to be doubles. With his shoulder healed, I still don't think he will start out great as he gets rid of those bad habits from last year and learns how to play first base. That can't be good for him. Also, his team hasn't changed much this year and he's playing in spacious Dodger stadium for half his games.

Albeit, I'm hoping on a return to form after a sluggish start. Even if he doesn't hit his 2002 or 2001 numbers, coming close warrants a low 5th round pick in a 16 team league. If LA can trade to get him some protection, he will be even better. Again, this pick has plenty of upside.
 
87Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 08:30 		5.13 Eddie Guardado, RP, Sea
We’ve had some recent activity in closers and I figured I’d better get a quality one in the fold before they disappear. I’ve had Steady Eddie on a number of roto teams over the past couple of years, and he’s always delivered. Although he now wears a diierent uniform, the departure of Sasaki apparently makes Guardado the leading option to close, and as he’s done it successfully for awhile, I don’t see why he would blow this opportunity.

In my rankings, the other closer alternatives were Isringhausen and Rhodes. Izzy was a close second, and I’d have taken him if Eddie had disappeared. Rhodes has never been the full time closer before, and although he has the arm, you never know whether he has the head for it.
 
88Trip
      Donor
      ID: 13961611
      Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 09:03 		5.14 Arthur Rhodes - RP - Oak

I felt that to remain competitive in the saves category I would have to take a reliever with this pick (even before Guru chose Eddie). It came down to a coin flip between Izzy, Rhodes, and Hoffman and I expect all of them to come up with around 40 saves. It is very difficult to come up with a rationale which places the 4 relievers taken in this run in any definitive rank order.
 
89darkside
      Dude
      ID: 3590317
      Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 09:13 		5.15 Jason Isringhausen - RP - STL

The run on closers had started and I wasn't planning on getting left out in the cold. While there's some concern with Izzy given his injuries last year, he was, in my opinion, one of the last really reliable closers who I felt would have a job all season and ample opportunities to convert a save. Too, the other guy on my short list was Garret Anderson, and I didn't think KKB would take him before I had a chance to go again. So, it was pretty clear-cut for me.
 
90KrazyKoalaBears
      Leader
      ID: 517553018
      Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 09:59 		5.16 Angel Berroa - SS - KAN

He was the last SS in my "top set," so it made sense to get him at this point to fill a need for a position that looked to quickly thin. While Berroa is not necessarily going to carry any one position, he'll be right in the middle of the pack in every category. Versatility was what I was going for, not necessarily a single category.