Forum: base
Page 16306
Subject: RIBC - Draft rationales , Rounds 6-10

  Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 09:28
Continuing with round 6 (the 81st pick).

Rationales for Rounds 1-5
 
1KrazyKoalaBears
Leader
ID: 517553018
Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 10:03 		6.01 Trevor Hoffman - P - SDG

The run on closers had started and while I didn't want to get caught up in it, I was already planning on taking a closer with this pick, so I did. Unfortunately, Rhodes, Izzy, and Eddie all got taken before me, so I was left to take a risk with Hoffman. He was really one of the last closers with a guaranteed slot.

I'm not so concerned about last year's injury because of the 9 games he managed to play in at the end of the season. He managed a 2.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP and that's probably better than anyone really expected. I think he has a good team around him and that his projections are a bit low. I don't see 30-35 saves as being out of the question for him.

 
2darkside
Dude
ID: 3590317
Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 10:20 		6.02 Garret Anderson - OF - Ana

I'm happy that Anderson fell this far in the draft. He's a quality hitter who I think will be helped out a lot by 2 things: Vlad and (to a lesser degree) Jose Guillen in his lineup and the fact that it's a contract year. He doesn't walk nearly enough, but the .531 slugging last year helps make up for that. I still didn't have any OF and thought Anderson would be a good place to start (but did think about Carlos Lee at the same time).
 
3Trip
Donor
ID: 13961611
Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 10:26 		6.03 Mike Lowell - 3B - Fla

This was the last player in my "A" list category of 3B which consisted of Rolen, Chavez and Lowell. Actually he was the last "A" player for all positions in my rankings. If Lowell had been healthy all of last year he would not have slipped this far in the draft. That being said, he is missing Lee and Irod to protect him and the Marlins will be relying on him and Cabrera to carry the load this year. While his RBI opportunities might fall a little, he still should put up top 25 numbers in the slugging department. I might have taken Garret Anderson here to "police" the draft, but thankfully Darkside took care of this for me.
 
4Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 10:44 		6.04 Kaz Matsui, SS, NYM
Shortstops have been popular lately, and I wanted to get one before the pickins were slim. While Matsui is an unknown in the U.S., based upon how some of the other Japanese stars have fared in recent years, there is certainly a case to be made that Matsui is not a reach at this pick. I might have taken Angel Berroa ahead of him, but KKB took care of that alternative. I also thought about Jose Reyes. Pretty much flipped a coin between the 2 Mets.

There were certainly a number of available outfielders who I ranked higher on raw stats, but outfielders should be much easier to fill later on. I thought it made sense to go for a SS who should make a positive contribution (as opposed to simply filling a slot), and Matsui should fill that bill.

Just for kicks, here are the average projections of RotoWire, RotoTimes, and RotoWorld:
92 R, 63 RBI, 28 SB, .345 OBP, .446 SLG

I'd be happy with those!
 
5Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 13:23 		6.05 Jose Reyes, SS, NYM

I liked this guy last year. Not only was his speed obvious but was pleasantly surprised with his pop. Thought it was a tough break when Matsuii sent him to the bench but Reyes got his chance at 2nd. Then he works hard in the offseason and puts on 15 pounds of muscle. Already his teammates are surprised how hard he is hitting the ball. He moved way up on my rough chart of players and my notes that even I sometimes can't read. I had no MI at this point and had hoped I could land him with this pick.

I had him clearly above Matsui, so when Guru took him (Matsui was also on my short list), I quickly jumped on Reyes. I very well may have taken Matsui had Guru snagged Reyes. Going to be interesting to see how these two compare this season.
 
6Species
Leader
ID: 7724916
Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 13:37 		6.06 Mark Teixeira - 1B/3B - TEX

I was very happy Teixeira came to me at this point. I really had wanted Morgan Ensberg and targeted him with my 5th rounder, but he went late in the 4th. When I made my 5th round pick I felt comfortable that one of the remaining decent 3b would come to me, and I got the one I wanted in Teixeira.

Teixeira's 1b/3b designation could come in very handy, although my intention was for him to be strictly at 3b. Teixeira is slated to be TEX' cleanup hitter, or at worst in the 5th spot, so he should see plenty of opportunities for RBI's with Soriano, Young and Blalock ahead of him. After 5 rounds of very known quantities, it was nice to take someone with a great deal of upside such as Teixeira.
 
7jumpball
ID: 2524958
Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 15:06 		6.07 Jorge Julio, P, Bal
This might be too early for Jorge, but I needed to have 2 Jorge's on my team! He should be a little better than last year with the O's offense improved. I'm hoping for a lots of 7-5 games with the O's on the winning side. He's one of the few closers left with a practically guaranteed job.

With Lowell, Kaz, Reyes, and Teixeira taken the 4 picks right before me, I felt snakebit on the hitters again. Is it my imagination, or do I have one of the worst postions in this draft? The only other players I considered were Glaus and Koskie, maybe one will slide to me the next round -- I know Jorge would not have.

 
9J
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 16:37 		6.08 Hideo Nomo, P, LA
At this point in the draft I'm surprised all these quality pitchers are still around, I was torn between Nomo, Wade Miller, Millwood, and was hoping Corey Koskie would make it back to me. Didn't quite turn out, but I did land Wade Miller on the way down! Nomo is still a very good pitcher, gets lots of K's and pitches in a great pitchers ballpark, which is what led me to take him over Miller.
 
8smartone @work
Donor
ID: 29452720
Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 16:27 		6.09 David Ortiz

If his 85 106 0 0.366 0.572 projections (505 ABs) become a reality, I will announce him as (my) first sleeper-steal of this draft. I wanted to draft him on the 5th round, but had a feeling that he will last longer on the board (he is listed as a DH on a couple of web sites, so maybe 1-2 managers didn't add him to their 1b/CI pool).
 
10Peter N.
      Donor
      ID: 257161713
      Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 16:46 		6.10 Armando Benitez

Well, I had a feeling a run of closers was beginning with two straight going before my last pick, but still ended up taking Blalock. Luckily, I still was able to get Benitez. He's out of New York this year, which is good. I think he's a Top 10 closer if he stays consistent. Staying consistent is a BIG IF for Benitez, but I think pitching in Florida will certainly help.(gets out of the New York spotlight, homefield dimensions in Florada more suitable for pitchers and he's got a nice starting pitching staff in front of him) He fills an obvious need on my team. 35 saves is possible for Armando. He shouldn't hurt the ERA or WHIP cats either.
 
11Caper
      Donor
      ID: 1535108
      Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 19:51 		6.11 Corey Koskie

I wanted a third baseman while there was still some selection (quality) left. I waffled between Koskie, Glaus and Ramirez for a while. Glaus concerned me because of the shoulder operation he didn't have and I took Koskie because he is consistent and will throw in 15-20 steals as the Twins try and manufacture runs. It was a trade of SB for SLG IMHO.
 
12blue hen
      ID: 4300290
      Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 20:43 		6.12 Troy Glaus

I didn't think there was even a small chance he'd make it back to me. Five rounds down and not a single infielder, Glaus was far and away the best pick here. I like him more than Lowell or Koskie, and slightly more than Teixeira.
 
13Mattinglyinthehall
      ID: 217351118
      Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 20:49 		6.13 Joe Borowski

Figures the closer run would start right after my 5.05 pick. Fortunately, I still managed to get one that has a solid hold on a closer job on a very good team. He may not have a dominant closer's makeup but he keeps his WHIP down and his strikeout ratio is great.
 
14Tosh
      Sustainer
      ID: 57721710
      Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 20:51 		6.14 Kevin Millwood

For the second time this draft, Blue Hen took the player I was eyeing (Glaus this round), so I changed directions abruptly. There's no top-shelf pitchers still available, so I took one that has been relatively injury-free. He should be able to log me heavy innings and add a few Ks to my mix. He definitely seemed to wear out in September last season, but I'm hoping he spent some of his shiny new $11 million contract on a conditioning coach.
 
15beastiemiked
      ID: 6117323
      Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 20:55 		6.15 Larry Walker, OF, Col

After picking 5 rather safe picks through the first 5 rounds I decided to take a little risk with this pick. When Walker is healthy, which has been rare, he's one of the best fantasy hitters out there. He's got a career OBP of .400 and slg% of .567. He has supposedly rededicated himself to working out, so hopefully that will reduce his injuries. I'm expecting better numbers than he had last year but wouldn't be too disappointed if they stayed the same.

 
16Slackjawed Yokel
      Leader
      ID: 52347519
      Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 21:43 		6.16 Carlos Zambrano

I'm happy with the starting pitching I've been able to get so far. I did miss the closer run, but that was a risk I took last time be getting Colon. I see Zambrano being a similar pitcher to Bartolo (and not only in physique...). Last season he had a 3.11 era and 167 K's. I expect him to increase on his win total of 13 with more K's, but probably a higher earned run average. The Cubs definitely have a formidable staff this year, with Zambrano being the fourth starter picked.
 
17Slackjawed Yokel
      Leader
      ID: 52347519
      Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 21:53 		7.01 Bill Mueller, 3b, Bos

I was somewhat set on getting a corner infielder here. As I was planning this pick there were still some strong ones left, and I didn't want to wait much longer. Unfortunately, Troy Glaus was selected a few picks earlier, and Teixeira even earlier than I expected. I ended up selected Mueller over Nevin, not only because 1B looked deeper, but because of the numbers Mueller showed last year in Boston. I was somewhat surprised to see how solid he was, with a slugging percentage of .540 and nearly a .400 OBP. Unlike in CBS, his 10 appearances at 2B weren't enough to qualify in yahoo, but if he matches the projections I've seen, he should be a nice contributor.
 
beastiemiked
ID: 2601988
Thu, Mar 04, 2004, 16:18 		7.02 Matt Morris, P, Stl

Keep in mind this pick was made before Morris gave up 9 runs in 1 2/3 innings. There were about 4 or 5 starting pitchers that I was thinking about taking with this pick. Looking at the numbers from last year Morris had an exceptional year minus June and July. He's got a great offense behind him so I'm hoping for 15+ wins with a ERA in the mid 3 run range.

 
19Tosh
      Sustainer
      ID: 57721710
      Sat, Mar 06, 2004, 01:23 		7.03 Nick Johnson

At this point in the draft, most teams already have a first baseman, but there are a few teams that don't, and I needed to fill a corner-infield hole. He doesn't carry as big a stick as many 1B, but he has a great eye that will most definitely improve my OBP, and won't damage my SLG%. A few extra games in Puerto Rico won't be bad either!

 
22Mattinglyinthehall
      ID: 217351118
      Sat, Mar 06, 2004, 08:41 		7.04 Alex Cintron

Cintron is another young player that I expect to continue to progress. In 2004 he will be hitting 5th, behind Richie Sexson in a lineup that boasts quality hitters through the #7 spot. With some OBP studs in front of him, 90 rbi isn't out of the question at all. Further, numerous scouting reports say that he is a very quick baserunner and should develop into something a stolen base threat. At the time that I took him, there were numerous other MI who were projected to slightly better overall numbers, but with the exception of Eckstein, I don't believe any of them approached Cintron's potential.
 
18blue hen
      ID: 4300290
      Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 23:13 		7.05 Luis Castillo, PR, FLA

I call him a pinch runner in the hope that I only get his running stats. His slugging percentage might bring me down a bit, but I'm hoping he runs wild. I had no infielders, and not even cheap steals (Giambi? Glaus? Piazza?) so I wanted to fill both those needs. That said, Castillo is a great player, and walks a ton. I could have taken AJones, WMiller, Carlos Lee, Dunn or Hidalgo, but I opted for Castillo. Time will tell if that was a good decision.
 
20Caper
      Donor
      ID: 1535108
      Sat, Mar 06, 2004, 07:40 		7.06 Mike Young

It was time for a solid middle infielder. I read that Young will be a SS now that Soriano is around. He had the best projected stats on my list and has the SS position to himself right now in Texas. I am still second guessing my Chipper selection a few rounds earlier as that was where I had originally planned to get a top middle infielder, but changed the plan at the last minute.
 
10Peter N.
      Donor
      ID: 257161713
      Fri, Mar 05, 2004, 16:46 		7.07 Andruw Jones, OF, Atl
I struggled on who I wanted to take with my next pick. I knew what position I wanted to address and that was the outfield. The other two players I was considering were Miguel Cabrera and Carl Crawford. In the end, I just couldn’t pass up on Andruw. He provides me a power insurance policy on Guerrero. Batting cleanup with Furcal and Giles setting the table should lead to plenty of run producing opportunities. Let’s also not forget that the guy is still 26. His career numbers are impressive and I think he’ll rise to the occasion this year and fill the void that Sheffield left. A career year could be in the order for Jones.
 
21smartone
      ID: 35254317
      Sat, Mar 06, 2004, 08:09 		7.08 Dmitri Young

I needed a 3B and Dmitri Young's projections were shining beyond any other 3B on my list. Assuming that the Tigers' season will not be worse than last year's horrible season (they have a couple of improvements to their line-up), a stat line (79 87 4 0.366 0.522)
similar to last year would be great for a 3rd baseman at the 104th pick of the draft.

 
24J
      ID: 591130517
      Sat, Mar 06, 2004, 08:52 		7.09 Wade Miller
As for hitters, I was hoping Koskie made it back to me, then Glaus, then Mueller, then Michael Young. No such luck, so I didn't want to settle for a hitter just to take a hitter, so I'm now just drafting best available, which to me, was Wade Miller. Three things worry me, however. 1 - Jimy Williams, 2 - Ten-Run Field 3 -He's their fourth starter!
 
25jumpball
      ID: 2524958
      Sat, Mar 06, 2004, 09:18 		7.10 Miguel Cabrera, 3B/OF, Fla
Finally a break! With smartone and J in front of me, I had Cabrera and Dunn on my short list . . . and neither got picked! I went with Cabrera's upside, hoping that his talent will keep him out of the sophomore slump. Dunn had upside too, but Cabrera's eligibility at 3B put him a shade above.
 
26Species
      Leader
      ID: 7724916
      Sat, Mar 06, 2004, 12:58 		7.11 Adam Dunn - 1B/OF - CIN

First baseman were starting to get scarce, so I figured it was time to hop on board. In this league using OBP, it cancels out Dunn's typical BA weakness, since even in last year's disaster Dunn still exhibited his keen batting eye by getting on base at a solid clip. His position flexibility can't hurt, although I drafted him with the intention of playing him at first base.

Dunn has a lot of upside. He stole 19 bases in 2002, so he can be another in my list of 10-25 SB guys to make me respectable in that category. His SLG% should be solid with the chance to improve greatly under new hitting coach Chris Chambliss.
 
27Ref
      Donor
      ID: 539581218
      Sat, Mar 06, 2004, 15:56 		7.12 Esteban Loaiza, P, CHW

I didn't have my notes with me when I called called out of town suddenly. So I basically was trying to remember who was on my scribbled notes and who was left when I remembered that two of those who hadn't been picked yet *grrrrrrrr* and I remembered looking at Loaiza and Lee. I rechecked and they were both available and both players fit my team to a "T". I have always been skeptical about Loaiza but he made me eat my words day after day last year. I could have gotten him in several leagues for pretty cheap, but I wouldn't trade the type of player that the managers wanted as I felt he was playing over his head. Although he didn't fizzle out at the end of the season, he certainly came back to earth a little. Scouts do a wonderful job and figuring out players and I have not read where Loaiza has come up with any more pitches like he did last year to keep players off balance and mess up the scouting report on him like last year. Still, the White Sox don't look to be too bad and he should get some run support and he is still good enough to get 17 or 18 wins IMM. That's great value for a 7th round pick in a 16 manager league (108 overall).

Guru will write about Lee next so I won't give my evaluation of him, but what it ultimately came down to was this...I had two OF already and only one SP and there were tons of quality OF still left on the board. Thought there were more OF that would still be there later to help me moreso than SP. But you can bet your bottom dollar that Lee would have been on my team had he made it back to me in thost 10 picks or so. I'm just glad there didn't seem to be an obvious pick that I missed because I was out of town and ill-prepared to be drafting, but it worked out.
 
28Guru
      ID: 2210302613
      Sat, Mar 06, 2004, 18:13 		7.13 Carlos Lee - OF - CHW
I had Lee ranked pretty closely to Preston Wilson, and was actually considering him for my 4th round pick. I suspect he only survived to this point because of the recent run on closers and leftside infielders. Leading up to this pick, I was looking at Lee and Adam Dunn. Species made the choice for me. I’m looking for 95 R, 108 RBI, 14 SB, .340 OBP, .500 SLG.

Even though respectable outfielders are still plentiful, the available players at the difficult positions (middle infield and catcher) are just too much of a reach at this point. Lee becomes only my second outfielder, so I still have plenty of room for more.

 
29Trip
      ID: 2210302613
      Sat, Mar 06, 2004, 18:14 		7.14 - Phil Nevin - 1B/OF - SD

Aaarrrgghh! This is a tough crowd. Lately I have learned (as a few of us can attest) that keeping a short list can be very frustrating. I felt confident that I woud either get C. Lee or Loaiza with this pick. Loiaza's stats last year may not be repeated, but he was a serious Cy contender and I don't think he has been getting his due in this year's drafts.

Nevin was the next to last "C" grade 1B on my draft card (Palmeiro) and I didn't want to fall below that level at this productive position. If he can stay healthy he will benefit from an improved Padres lineup. A return to his 2001 numbers isn't likely (a .976 OPS!), but I think it is not unrealistic to expect a similar line to the one he posted in 2000 - 87, 107, 2, .374, .543. While I was frustrated losing the 2 players I had ahead of Nevin for this pick, I was happy to land him here.
 
30darkside
      ID: 4218517
      Sun, Mar 07, 2004, 09:01 		7.15 Jimmy Rollins - SS - Phi

At this point I still had 2B, 3B and SS open. I had thought about taking Nevin for a CI or OF spot as I expect him to produce well this year, but Trip relieved me of that possibility. So, I decided to focus on 2B or SS since I didn't think KKB would take my next pick of Aramis Ramirez. I narrowed it down to Ray Durham, Placido Polanco and Rollins. I liked Polanco because of his 2B/3B eligibility, but ultimately went with Rollins because I think he has the better shot to get more SB and perform better than he did last year. Too, the other SS options compared to other 2B options were, to me, a much more dramatic dropoff.
 
31KrazyKoalaBears
      Leader
      ID: 517553018
      Sun, Mar 07, 2004, 09:24 		7.16 Placido Polanco - 2B/3B - PHI

As with Abreu, I'm expecting bigger things out of the PHI lineup this year. Polanco will primarily be my 2B and with him going into the season as the starting 2B, I like his chances of increasing on last year's totals and surpassing most projections. But even if he does come in around 90 R, 65 RBI, 10 SB, .410 SLG, .350 OBP, his multiple position qualification could end up being invaluable by the end of the season. Not only can he fill in at 2B and 3B, but also at CI and MI. A player with good stats that was the last available in the top 25% of his position (2B, according to my rankings) that can fill in at 3 other positions? Yeah, I'll take him... especially with my 7th pick.

 
32KrazyKoalaBears
      Leader
      ID: 517553018
      Sun, Mar 07, 2004, 09:36 		8.01 Miguel Batista - P - TOR

If JP Ricciardi likes him, then I like him too. Though it's obviously not the only reason I got Batista, I like the fact that they signed him as a FA. It tells me there may be more than meets the eye to him. But even if there's not, a decent improvement over 2003, when he was 10-9, 3.54 ERA, 1.329 WHIP, 2.36 K/BB, would put him around 12 wins, 3.20 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and about 150 K's. A good improvement will make him a big sleeper with an 8th round pick, IMHO.

 
33darkside
      ID: 4218517
      Sun, Mar 07, 2004, 09:43 		8.02 Aramis Ramirez - 3B - ChC

With SS filled w/ my last pick, that left 2B and 3B to deal with. I'd been thinking Ramirez since my last pick, and when KKB didn't take him, I knew I would. I'm hoping for about 30 HR and close to a .500 SLG...I think it's realistic, but he's had a problem meeting expectations. Regardless, it fills a position that was getting fairly thin with someone who can put up decent power numbers and drive in 100+ runs.
 
34Trip
      ID: 2210302613
      Sun, Mar 07, 2004, 10:01 		8.03 Richard Hidalgo - OF - Hou

I considered Mantei, Nathan, Contreras, and Crawford with this pick and I am not sure why I chose Hidalgo over Crawford considering I have Crawford ranked over Hidalgo in my own rankings. Hidalgo fits in with my overall team strengths so far, while Crawford would have helped to balance out my team. Hidalgo may also have been the safer play, however I still can't justify passing up Crawford here.
 
35Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sun, Mar 07, 2004, 14:03 		8.04 Matt Mantei, RP, Ari
I wanted a pitcher here, and the scarcity of closers makes me head that way, rather than adding to my starters. The two top available closers were Mantei and Francisco Cordero, based on my rankings. Mantei has been mentioned as a possible trade candidate, although those rumors seem to have abated for now. If he gets dealt in July, hopefully it will be to a team looking for a closer. I just thought Mantei was a bit more proven than Cordero, but would probably have gone for Cordero if Mantei was gone.

With two solid closers now on the roster, that category should be in good shape. That’s not to say, however, that I won’t grab a third if the opportunity arises. In a 16 team league, 2 closers is the “fair share”, but I suspect some teams have already planned to punt that category (which can be a viable strategy, too).

 
36Ref
      Donor
      ID: 539581218
      Sun, Mar 07, 2004, 14:25 		8.05 Scott Podsednik, OF, Mil

Had my eye on him for a long time. Knew he would slide because his team is going to stink this year and he won't score like he did last year. Still his obp was pretty good and his speed can only help. With a full year this year, I'm hoping he can pick up where he left off last year. May have reached a smidge but no way would he have been there for me next pick so I'm comfortable with it.
 
38Species
      Leader
      ID: 7724916
      Sun, Mar 07, 2004, 20:01 		8.06 Matt Clement - SP - CHC

Call me a Cubs fan now with Clement and Maddux in my fold.

At this point in the draft you can throw 20 pitchers into a barrell and rate them all the same. Some people will get lucky and some people will crash and burn. In choosing Clement, I had several factors that I considered......

He's only 29 and has made 32 starts and pitched 200 innings the past two years. He's now part of a Cubs team that has very high hopes, a strong bullpen and added a strong 1b with solid offensive numbers and a Gold Glove to his credit. The addition of LaTroy Hawkins strengthens a bullpen tremendously making most Cub games 7-inning affairs.

Clement was one of the few decent strikeout pitchers available at this point, as 175 k's seems very reasonable. Being on this team makes 15 wins is well within reach. Give me 15 wins, 3.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP with 180 k's and the pick is justified. I seriously considered Randy Wolf with this pick as well.
 
39jumpball
      ID: 198192210
      Mon, Mar 08, 2004, 00:16 		8.07 Derek Lowe - SP - Bos
I wasn't happy with any of the hitters available and thought that I could get just about any of the ones I was interested in at my next pick. So I went for my third starting pitcher.
If Species is now a Cubs fan, I guess I'm a Red Sox fan with 2 of their starters. :-)
I expect Lowe to thrive in the #3 starting slot, and with Schilling there to teach better preparation, that's likely to put him closer to his 2002 numbers than his 2003 numbers. If that happens, this will be a great pick!
 
40J
      Leader
      ID: 49346417
      Mon, Mar 08, 2004, 01:11 		8.08 Russ Ortiz - SP - ATL
How was I supposed to pass up the number one starter on the Atlanta Braves? As much as I am a Brave hater, I've always liked Ortiz. He can be good for 18-20 wins as the #1 guy. At this point I still didn't think any of the infielders I needed were worth taking over a guy as good as Russ Ortiz.
 
41smartone
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 08, 2004, 08:15 		8.09 Carl Crawford, OF, TB
As I continued to beef-up my hitting line-up while looking for decent pitching, I realized that my team lacks speed. This is the first time that I picked a player who'se ranking was not even close to the top of my list but I guess that my ranking algorithm gave too(?) little weight to SB -- a quick sort and I picked the guy who is PROJECTED to provide me with nearly 60 SB (while hurting my SLG%).
 
42Peter N.
      Donor
      ID: 257161713
      Mon, Mar 08, 2004, 10:23 		8.10 Rocco Baldelli

Well, Crawford went just one pick away from me. Ouch! Plan B all along was going to be Rocco and I never really expected Crawford to make it back around to me after taking Andruw. However, the fact that he came one pick away does sting a little. Baldelli will still feel my need for SB and actually won’t hurt me as much as Crawford would in the SLG% cat. I think 35 stolen bases is possible for Baldelli and that’s what I’m looking for. Besides Guerrero, I really had no other threats to swipe bases so I needed to address that. Baldelli offers a nice combo of power and speed. Being so young, I expect him to build on his numbers from last year.
 
43Caper
      Donor
      ID: 1535108
      Mon, Mar 08, 2004, 11:07 		Johnny Damon

I wasn't really looking for an outfielder here, but I liked this choice. Damon stunk the joint up in the first half last year and then had a much better second half. He is still pencilled in as the lead-off man in a potent line-up and should score 100+ runs and steal 25-30 bases. I am expecting the Damon from the second half to play all year this season.
 
44blue hen
      ID: 331038201
      Mon, Mar 08, 2004, 11:10 		8.12 Roger Clemens

I was hot for Clemens for a long time, and I'm quite surprised he made it back to me, especially after I referred to him as "xxxx" in another thread. Along with Rivera, I consider Clemens one of my best picks of this draft. I really needed a stud starter, and at this late round, Clemens was clearly the best remaining. I'm not even a little worried about the Juicebox factor with Rocket. He's a strikeout pitcher, and guys like Oswalt and Miller were just fine there. He should be able to avoid getting injured and give me some good innings every time out. Along with Prior, I've got my two aces, so I'm happy. Most interesting, I've got Clemens and Piazza on the same team.
 
45Mattinglyinthehall
      Leader
      ID: 1629107
      Mon, Mar 08, 2004, 11:11 		8.13 David Eckstein - SS - Ana

It's my opinion that Eck was the last remaining middle infielder that stood out from the pack in both breakout potential and also in more conservative expectations. That I also needed to add some steals made this pick easier.
 
46Tosh
      Sustainer
      ID: 57721710
      Mon, Mar 08, 2004, 11:25 		8.14 Mark Buehrle, P, CHI-A

I still need a 3B, but fully expect that a few will be available 32 picks from now, so I went with one of the many starting pitchers that are all clustered together right now. The main reason that I chose Buehrle was that he plays in the division with Cleveland and Detroit, and hopefully he gets many starts against them. I’m definitely concerned about the decrease in strikeouts last year, and even more concerned about the 690 innings pitched the last three seasons, but have no reason to believe that he’ll break down and give me squat. He should be good for 15+ wins.
 
47beastiemiked
      ID: 2601988
      Mon, Mar 08, 2004, 12:11 		8.15 Ray Durhman, 2b, SF

He was the last 2nd baseman left that can fill all 5 categories. If he's healthy this year I fully expect 100+ runs, 60+ RBI's, 15+ SB, .365 OBP, and a .450 Slg %. He's probably on the downside of his career but at 32 he still has some gas left in his tank. The only other guys I considered were Klesko and Raffy but figured one of them would be available next round.
 
48Slackjawed Yokel
      Leader
      ID: 52347519
      Mon, Mar 08, 2004, 12:39 		8.16 Hideki Matsui, OF, NYY

Well, all along as this pick was nearing, I was targeting Austin Kearns. When it came to my turn, Kearns was still available, but I chickened out. Kearns has never played a complete season, and it sounds like his shoulder is still a problem from last year. So, i went with the 'safer' pick of Matsui who played in every game last season. Reports are that he added some muscle in the offseason, and with a year under his belt, should show more of the power that had originally been expected. Plus, this yankees lineup will be a run-scoring machine.
 
49Slackjawed Yokel
      Leader
      ID: 52347519
      Mon, Mar 08, 2004, 12:52 		9.01 Rafael Palmeiro, 1B, Bal

Here I wanted to plug the glaring hole on my team at 1B. Although his batting average has dropped the last few years, his OBP has still been solid. A decrease in his .540 SLG over the past 3 years is to be expected, now that he's back in Baltimore, but he will be batting cleanup between Tejada and Javy, so he should have ample opportunities to score and drive in runs.
 
50Tosh
      Sustainer
      ID: 57721710
      Mon, Mar 08, 2004, 15:29 		9.02 Ryan Klesko, 1B, SD
Health is a big issue with Klesko but that seems to be the theme for my team this year. I would've preferred Raffy over Klesko but he went 1 pick before my turn. I'm hoping batting in an improved Padres lineup will bring Klesko back to his averages of .380 OBP and .530 Slg%. Looking back at this pick I don't really like it mainly due to health concerns of a few of my other players.
 
51Tosh
      Sustainer
      ID: 57721710
      Mon, Mar 08, 2004, 15:29 		9.03 John Thomson, P, ATL

I decided to finally fill that hole I have at 3B, until I was told I had a brain fart and drafted a player that had already been selected. So I went with another starter. Sure he’s NEVER had a winning record overall, and sure he’s NEVER had an ERA below 4.0, but he’s spent his career in Colorado and Texas. Atlanta is more of a pitcher’s park, and pitching coach Leo Mazzone seems to get good results with his players. He’s no strikeout specialist, but he should be an above-average Fantasy starter and set new career highs in most pitching categories.
 
52Mattinglyinthehall
      Leader
      ID: 1629107
      Mon, Mar 08, 2004, 15:37 		9.04 Randy Winn - OF - Sea

I need steals! But not enough so that I was willing to take a player who is too deficient in any categories. Winn should get me close to 100 runs and 20 steals without hurting my OBP or SLG%. 10 - 15 HR and maybe 55 - 70 on top of that make him respectable in all 5 categories.
 
53blue hen
      ID: 331038201
      Mon, Mar 08, 2004, 16:12 		9.05 Jeromy Burnitz, OF, COL

Who are you kidding? This guy is a machine. He can hit 30 home runs like clockwork, even when he's splitting time between the Mets and Dodgers. And now he's in Colorado? Burnitz should hit a TON of homers, and the altitude might even help his average. He does manage to walk a lot, with a career OBP of .350. Finally, I'm satisfied with Jeromy's age - at 34, he's hardly old.
 
54Caper
      Donor
      ID: 1535108
      Mon, Mar 08, 2004, 19:15 		9.06 Livan Hernandez

It was time to add a pitcher. I did not see any bats that seemed to require picking right away and I liked Hernandez. Coming off a good year last year and a chance to step up and be a staff ace. Looking for decent whip, K's and era. Maybe the Spo's will even help out by winning a few for him?
 
55Peter N.
      Donor
      ID: 257161713
      Mon, Mar 08, 2004, 19:37 		9.07 Randy Wolf

Having only Mulder and Benitez on the pitching staff, my attention turned back towards them with this pick. Specifically, I wanted the next pitcher I drafted to be somebody I could rely on for strikeouts. I believe Wolf will fill that need nicely. The past two years he’s had 170+ Ks and I’m expecting around 175 this year. He hasn’t been nearly as consistent with W, ERA and WHIP the past 3 years, but I still think he can be adequate there too. Mulder and Wolf is a decent 1-2 punch for my starting pitching with Benitez closing.
 
56smartone
      ID: 3525976
      Mon, Mar 08, 2004, 20:51 		9.08 Joel Pineiro SP, SEA

After loading my team with hitters I was happy to find a SP near the top of my ranked players. I was looking at Piniero back at the 7th round, and was happy that he was still there for me. This is going to be Piniero's 3rd significant season, and I hope that he'll manage to get even better numbers than next year. He pitched 194 and 210 innings in his last 2 years, so if his arms hold, 16 W, 155Ks, 3.54 (ERA) and 1.24 (WHIP) in 210 IP might make sense. I recall having him on my TSN team a couple of times in the past 2 years - getting a bunch of good games with a major stinker (usually against TB/BAL, for some reason) -- he had a horrible 1IP outing yesterday in spring training - so hopefully this was his stinker... ;-)
 
57J
      Leader
      ID: 49346417
      Mon, Mar 08, 2004, 21:57 		9.09 Shannon Stewart - OF - MIN

This was a tough pick, I didn't have my trusty spreadsheet to rely on for this pick, so I was just looking around for familiar looking names still available. When I saw Shannon Stewart was still out there, I went for it. I was looking for a guy with speed, and, well, Stewart has always been a leadoff hitter. Ooops, he had 4 steals last year. Not one of my smarter picks, but we'll see, this could turn out well.
 
58jumpball
      ID: 198192210
      Mon, Mar 08, 2004, 22:34 		9.10 Austin Kearns - OF - Cin
This pick is all about potential. if Kearns stays healthy (knock on wood), he'll get great numbers hitting between Dunn and Griffey . . . oh yeah, assuming they stay healthy too. :-)
In summary, this was a little bit of a gamble, but one I felt was worth taking.
 
59Species
      Leader
      ID: 7724916
      Mon, Mar 08, 2004, 23:56 		9.11 Trot Nixon - OF - BOS

This was a pretty easy pick. Nixon sported an OBP of .396 and a SLG of .578 last year. Very lofty numbers. But even if he just gives me .370 and .530 he is a screaming bargain at this pick. I only had one outfielder at this point so it not only covered a need but for many rounds now the "best available" players have seemingly been outfielders.

Of course, in the last couple of days issues with Nixon's back are popping up in the news. UGH
 
60Ref
      Donor
      ID: 539581218
      Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 10:55 		9.12 Jason Varitek, C, Bos

This guy wasn't even on my list but I wasn't really thrilled with any of the guys I was looking at with this pick. As I was narrowing them down, I decided to look at the positions I needed and realized that Varitek was still available. While a reach on my hodgepodge of notes, ratings and projection sheets, he has solid numbers and should fit in nicely. I don't hear about this guy much and that may be why he was still here at the end of the 9th round. For a catcher with those kinds of numbers/projections to be ranked so low by a couple publications is laughable. I just now checked a different site's pre-season rankings and they have him as the 5th best catcher. Time will tell, but for now I am very happy with this pick.
 
61Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 10:58 		9.13 Jose Contreras, P, NYY
I‘ve had my eye on Contreras for about the last 10 picks or so, and was a little surprised to see him survive, even though a lot of teams are better stocked with starters. Prior to this pick, Halladay was my only starter, so I certainly have a need. I have Contreras ranked around #30 among pitchers, and this is the 51st pitcher selected.

I like Contreras for a number of reasons. He’ll be counted on heavily as a staple in the Yankee rotation, and should have plenty of opportunities for wins, even on days when he might not have his best stuff. He has a good strikeout ratio (about 1 per inning), and at age 32 (assuming he really is 32), physical deterioration shouldn’t yet be a factor, especially since he only threw 71 innings last year. Projection: 14 wins, 170 K, 3.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP. RotoWire and Fantasy Sports Magazine actually project an ERA of 3.20 and a marginally better WHIP, which would be a bonus.
 
62Trip
      Donor
      ID: 13961611
      Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 11:13 		Joe Nathan - RP - Min

Ref and Guru did it to me again. I was set to go Varitek or Contreras here, but they were scooped up right before. Nathan was the last of my "B" grade relievers (notice a theme here?). My other consideration was Adam Kennedy (my 10.03 pick) and Jason Kendall. I figured that if I drafted a reliever that would probably get Darkside & Koala to grab one as well, leaving me with more options on my next pick. I wasn't expecting this pick to start the second closer run. Prior to this pick only 2 closers had been taken with the last 50 picks, the next two rounds would see 5 disappear from the board with only one "D" option available on my next pick. With 16 teams in this league and only 29 closers I am happy very to land two with fairly secure jobs. Interestingly, there are only 2 teams that look like they may be punting the category. I expected more due to the scarcity of closers and the high number of teams.
 
63darkside
      Dude
      ID: 3590317
      Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 11:25 		9.15 Milton Bradley - OF - Cle

Having only Anderson in my OF at this point I was thinking I needed to get someone else before the next 32 picks happened. Bradley has a ton of potential, but his issues are well documented. I don't usually like dealing with head cases, but I felt the potential was enough to deal with it. I'm hoping for 15-20 SB, .475 SLG and .360 OBP, with about 60-70 r/rbi thrown in...those are decent numbers for a pick this low, but they are susceptable to his tantrums. Hopefully he's grown up and can produce regularly.
 
64KrazyKoalaBears
      Leader
      ID: 517553018
      Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 11:35 		9.16 Jason Kendall - C - PIT

I was floored that he actually made it back to me, especially since guys I'm looking at a round or two ahead of time haven't been coming my way to this point. While Kendall will lack the RBI and SLG of some of the other C's available (categories I felt I already had covered enough), he more than makes up for it with his high OBP and good R potential. I also like the fact that he's a threat for double-digit steals. His awesome K/BB ratio (.919 career) tells me that he has a great eye for the ball. If he can gain a little power to raise his SLG, he'll be all that more valueable at this point in the draft.

 
65KrazyKoalaBears
      Leader
      ID: 517553018
      Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 11:40 		10.01 Francisco Cordero - P - TEX

While Cordero struggled in his first spring training outing, I'm not concerned. The more trouble Zimmerman has coming back arm problems, the more entrenched in the closer role Cordero will be. I think Rotowire's projection of 25 Saves is a bit low and figure he could be in the 30+ range if Zimmerman can't regain his arm strength. A bit of a risk, but with most (all?) top-tier and guaranteed closers gone, Cordero makes a fine 10th round and #4 pitcher pick.

 
66darkside
      Dude
      ID: 3590317
      Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 11:41 		10.02 Jamie Moyer - SP - Sea

I have no illusions that Moyer will win 20 games next year, but think 15 isn't a reach with reasonable ERA and WHIP thrown in. He's not a power pitcher, so SO won't be there, but w/ RJ and Schmidt, I'm not as concerned about that. This pick was between him, Pettitte, Dontrelle and Woody Williams....I'm worried about Woody's injury, about Pettitte pitching in Hou and about Dontrelle's ability to do this year what he did last year; that left me with Moyer. Age and health are huge concerns, but given that he lobs the ball in there, I'm hoping he can stay on the mound and put up respectable numbers.
 
67Trip
      Donor
      ID: 13961611
      Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 12:14 		10.03 Adam Kennedy - 2B - Ana

Here we go again, Kennedy was the last "C" grade 2B in my rankings. Second base seems to be the thinnest position by far this year and while I had him ranked 171st and this is the 147th pick, I didn't mind reaching a bit here, as he would not have made it back to me. The other player considered here was Dontrelle. I would be happy for a repeat of last year's numbers but I believe he will improve a bit with the Guerrero in the lineup. I would have liked a little more speed at this position but that was not an option, and his Runs should compensate for what he lacks in the steals department. 60 RBI, 90 R, 20 SB, .340 OBP, .385 SLG is not an unrealistic expectation.
 
68smartone
      Donor
      ID: 539581218
      Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 12:44 		10.04 Brad Wilkerson, 1B, OF, MON

He is in the "right age", his (projected) numbers (80, 82, 14, 0.378, 0.473) are great, his numbers in the Puerto-Rico hitters-heaven are wonderful, he can be a 1B, CI and OF AND I was actually considering him in the 7th round. As we approched the 10th round, his numbers were WAY on top of my rankings, so I realized that he will be taken by one of the 5-10 managers in front of me. This is the reason for my request to trade draft picks, and it turned out that 1-2 managers would had taken him.
 
69Ref
      Donor
      ID: 539581218
      Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 12:48 		10.5 Danny Kolb, P, Mil

This is one of the few closers left that actually has the closing job for sure. Though his team isn't the greatest, i do remember a closer getting like 44 saves for the expansion Marlins, so it can be done. I only had one closer and with him still on the board, I finally decided to take him over Fullmer. I actually had Fullmer's name in the post and then took it out and decided that Kolb would not get back to me and if Fullmer didn't, I could find someone close to him in value. Wasn't sure the same held true for Kolb.
 
71Species
      ID: 3010361110
      Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 13:37 		10.06 Brad Fullmer, 1B - TEX

Quick. Name the ballpark that had the most runs scored in it during the 2003 regular season.

BUZZ! Coors Field is incorrect! The answer is "The Ballpark at Arlington".

While it is ludicrous to suggest that Arlington is truly a better hitters park than Coors, it is most certainly an excellent hitters park. The Rangers had a great offense as well as the most horrific pitching staff, so sure there are going to be tons of runs.

While Arlington was #1 in runs scored, Anaheim's Edison Field was #25 in runs scored. I had my sights on Fullmer for quite some time and have been waiting for the right time to pull the trigger. Fullmer is still only 29 and is pretty much assured plenty of AB's as 1B/DH for Texas, likely hitting 5th behind my 3rd baseman, Mark Teixeira. The ballpark effects can only help, as can 450 AB's in a huge RBI spot in the lineup. I think a .860+ OPS and 100 RBI are well within reach, which makes Fullmer a big bargain.
 
72jumpball
      ID: 4423249
      Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 14:36 		10.07 Mark Loretta - 2B - SD
My goal here and in the next round was to pick my middle infielders unless someone else that I couldn't pass up was available. I considered Kennedy, Loretta, Guzman, and Alomar. Kennedy was off the board before I picked. I didn't like the projections of Guzman hitting 9th nearly as much as Alomar and Loretta hitting 2nd. Loretta hitting ahead of Giles seemed like a better option than taking a gamble on Alomar coming back after 2 down years. While Cliff Floyd and Juan Gonzalez were tempting, I stuck with the overall team plan.
 
73J
      ID: 4423249
      Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 14:38 		10.08 Cristian Guzman - SS - Min

Well, it was time to finally break down and get a middle infielder. No one really jumped out at me, so I figured I'd go with the guy who I could at least get some steals out of. There's another guy I may get later on who may turn out to let me leave Guzman on the bench, so maybe I jumped at this pick too early again.
 
74Guru
      ID: 539581218
      Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 15:49 		10.09 Cliff Floyd, OF, NYM
Heading into my 10th round pick, my short list was Jason Kendall, Francisco Cordero, and Adam Kennedy. All three disappeared just before my scheduled turn. I didn’t like any of the remaining catchers or middle infielders at this stage, so I shifted attention to the best available players at any position. The two hitters I liked best were Brad Wilkerson and Cliff Floyd. Smartone was offering to trade up 5 picks, swapping 10th and 11th round picks. I didn’t think both of those hitters would be taken in the next 5 picks (the time until Smartone’s scheduled pick), so I accepted his offer. When he immediately took Wilkerson, I wondered whether I might have to reassess again.

But Floyd was still there when the time came, so I took him. He was actually atop my rankings (ahead of Wilkerson), but he doesn’t come without some concerns. He plays for the Mets, in what may be a weak hitting lineup in a stadium not known for hitter-friendliness. He also sustained an Achilles tendon injury last year. I’ll hope for 80-85-6-.525-.375.

 
75Peter N
      Donor
      ID: 539581218
      Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 15:49 		10.10 C.C. Sabathia
I had originally targeted getting a 2nd closer with this pick, but after both Cordero and Kolb came off the board, I felt that taking any of the other closers at this point would be reaching. I still kept this pick with pitching, although Juan Gonzalez was tempting. Sabathia is a breakout candidate of mine. Weight has been an issue throughout Sabathia’s brief career, but he vowed to work hard in the off-season and come into Spring Training healthy. A trimmed down Sabathia can sneak into the top 10 as a starting pitcher, IMO. He set a career best 3.60 ERA last year and I expect him to continue to improve on that.
 
76Caper
      Donor
      ID: 1535108
      Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 16:03 		10.11 Jake Peavy-P-SD

I see SD as an up and coming team, Nevin's shoulder not-withstanding, and Peavy as a solid young pitcher who can add some K's along the way. I liked his upside, the team's upside, the K's and the possibility of a breakout season for the 23 year old.
 
77blue hen
      ID: 331038201
      Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 16:49 		10.12 Juan Gonzalez, OF, KC

A two-time MVP in the 10th round? For me, the choice was obvious and I really haven't second guessed much. Juan is very injury-prone and inconsistent, but hopefully he'll have a season-ending injury again so I can release him after an All-Star caliber first half. Even though they're moving their fences back, I expect fantastic numbers from Juan's first season in the K.
 
85Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 217351118
Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 20:00 		10.13 Mike Hampton - SP - Atl

I felt I was able to hold off on a SP in the 9th round because there was still a bit of talent on the board. Interestingly, 7 starting pitchers went before it was my turn again and I had Hampton ranked ahead of all of them, though I do concede a few of those guys have an upside that exceeds his. Anyhow, Leo Mazzone worked his magic and successfully shook that bad Coors mojo from Hampton, and had him all straightened out by the All Star break. 2003 Post-ASB numbers: 9-3, 2.91, 55k, 2.25whip in 99 IP. Yoink! Of course, I'm eager to see the K/IP ratio return to something closer to previous (pre-Coors) levels, but even if it doesn't, I think I made out very well in round 10.
 
79Tosh
      Sustainer
      ID: 57721710
      Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 17:13 		10.14 Braden Looper, RP, NY-N

I decided to become the fifth RIBC manager to acquire a second closer (two more have joined the club since). Hopefully he won’t lose his job like he historically does, but his average talent gets me 25 saves, 60 Ks, and reasonable ratios.
 
80beastiemiked
      ID: 2601988
      Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 17:22 		10.15 JD Drew, OF, ATL

I was really close to pulling the trigger on Drew last round. Drew has the potential to breakout in Atlanta. He's never lived up to his hype but I'm thinking a move to his homestate of Georgia will be the change he needed. His OBP and Slg% have always been pretty solid and I'm hoping he gets a chance to flash some of his speed this year. He's a big injury risk as he's never played more than 135 games but he's also got a huge upside.
 
81Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 28219820
      Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 19:37 		10.16 Andy Pettitte, P, Hou

Well, I was going to get a closer this time, but Looper was taken two picks earlier, and he's the guy I had my sights on. The next closer on my list was Graves, but I really had him in the next tier, so I looked to see who else was available. Once again, it looked to me that the strongest player available was another starting pitcher. I expect Pettitte to get me 17+ wins and 170+ K's. Of course, he's now in a hitter's park, but he also has something to prove this year - I think he'll do his part to get his new squad into the playoffs.