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| Posted by: Guru
- [2524958] Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 21:27
Continuing with round 11 (161st pick)
Rounds 1-5 Rounds 6-10 |
| | | 1 | Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 2524958
Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 21:28
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11.01 Mike Lieberthal, C, Phi
With there only being a handful of catchers worth owning in this league, I decided to get Lieberthal while he was still available. He really had a solid season last year with a .450 SLG and a .370 OBP. Anything remotely like that, and I'll be happy. At this position, I was actually thinking of drafting Bobby Crosby with this pick, but I thought he was enough of a sleeper that he might drop to me next time around - ah, the perils of drafting first...
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| | | 2 | beastiemiked
ID: 2524958
Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 21:29
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11.02 Reggie Sanders, OF, Stl
This is another pick I'm not liking too much. I failed to realize that Reggie follows a disturbing trend of having one good year then a mediocre one. I'll be happy with Reggie if he gives me a full season with .340 OBP .500 Slg and 12-15 steals. I'm done talking about this pick because I wish I had it back.
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| | | 3 | Tosh
ID: 2524958
Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 21:30
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11.03 Marlon Byrd, OF, PHI
There are a bunch of OFs all clustered in this draft range, but I’m surprised that Byrd has not been drafted yet. He had a great second half last year (the second-most hits (93) of any major-leaguer the second half of 2003 and a .330 batting average in September). His best years are probably a couple years away, but a 20-20 season is within reach this season if he can improve his OBP a bit. And I still need a 3B …
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| | | 4 | Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 2524958
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 08:30
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11.04 Danny Graves, P, Cin
Graves numbers from last year have clearly soured managers on him going into '04. He's back in the pen now, in the closer's role he had success in, and hopefully will go back to challenging hitters inside as he did before. I also hope that the 4mph or so he lost on his fastball was due to fatigue associated with all the extra innings he was pitching, and that hge will regain his prior form. He was one of the last (if not the last) closers left with a strong hold on the starting job, so my fingers are crossed that he can revert to previous 30-save form.
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| | | 5 | bluehen
ID: 2524958
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 08:31
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11.05 Shawn Chacon, P, Col
Graves went one pick before, but Chacon was higher on my list. Despite some injury problems, Chacon is a much better pitcher than Mike Williams or Antonio Alfonseca or other guys that have collected 40 saves on crappy teams. He's even better than Jose Jimenez who collected 40 saves on Colorado. After picking up MacDougal later, I am fairly set to be in the top 3 in saves, and I might pick up another closer later so I can rip one of you guys off in a trade.
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| | | 6 | Caper
ID: 2524958
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 08:31
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11.06 Vicente Padilla, P, Phi
A good young pitcher on a solid team that now has a closer. I am looking for Padilla to stay healthy, win 15 or so games with a reasonable WHIP, ERA and a few K's. With the addition of Wagner, he may be able to sneak a few more wins on a team that is focused on making the post-season.
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| | | 7 | Peter N.
ID: 2524958
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 08:32
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11.07 Matt LeCroy, C/1B, Min
I decided to address arguably the thinnest position in baseball with this pick. Lecroy will bring me power at a position that doesn’t have a lot. A SLG% around .500 is not out of the question. I’d like to see him bring his OBP% up this year, but I’ll definitely take the power. I don’t see myself playing him anywhere else but catcher. However, his flexibility of filling my CI spot or backing up my 1B slot adds value.
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| | | 8 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 08:41
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11.08 Jason Bay, OF, Pit
I think we’re at the stage of the draft when it makes sense to go after some unproven players with good upside. Bay seems to fit that bill. Although he’s coming back from shoulder surgery, early reports are favorable, and he appeared in his first spring training game today. Here is my wish list: 80-80-15-.475-.375
Is it still too early to go after someone like Bay? Maybe, but in a league like this, if you see a player that you want, you need to err on the early side. That's likely to be my theme for the next few rounds.
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| | | 9 | J
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 08:43
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11.09 Roberto Alomar, 2B, Ari
I guess this is kinda sorta the opposite of Guru's Jason Bay pick! Going after a once-proven guy who has struggled lately, but with (another) new team, maybe he'll give me a little of his former self. With the quality, or lack-there-of remaining in the infield, I couldn't wait any longer on getting Alomar. This seems to be a disturbing trend! (Alomar, Nen, Alfonzo) Three straight potentially over-the-hill guys, could be good, could be really really bad)
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| | | 10 | jumpball
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 08:44
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11.10 Jose Valentin, SS, ChW
My goal here was to get a SS. Guzman was now off the board. Looking at the lineups and past stats, Valentin was head and shoulders over Aurilia, Crosby, Guillen and the rest. I probably could have gotten him next round, but there were only a couple of OFs that interested me. I stuck to the plan.
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| | | 11 | Species
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 08:44
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11.11 Jason Phillips, C/1B, NYM
I feel very good about this pick. In a league like this, relativity is everything. Phillips was very low in my rankings, but compared to the other possibilities at catcher, he ranked strongly. You have to be careful that you don't get a catcher that hurts you, and Phillips will definitely contribute positively when compared to other catchers on the board.
Phillips' expected OBP and SLG are respectable, but what I like are his chances in the RBI and Runs categories just because he'll get more AB's. His role for the Mets this year is as their primary 1B and then as their backup C when Piazza either has the day off or plays 1b himself. That playing time played a big factor in my decision, as 450 AB's seems like a given.
I believe he'll hit 5th or (probably) 6th in a revamped Mets lineup - a lineup with Matsui and Reyes hitting ahead of Piazza, Floyd and Cameron puts Phillips in a pretty decent RBI position. Given that I have sacrificed some RBI's in some of my drafting in favor of superior OB/SLG percentages, this was a chance to rack up 20 more RBI over other alternatives while not hurting those percentages too much.
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| | | 13 | Ref
ID: 17259109
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 11:39
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11.12 Shea Hillenbrand, 1B/3B, AZ
I may or may not have reached a smidge with this pick. Bottom line: I felt he was the best 3B still on the board and I was yet to have anyone there. His multipositional flexibility could also come in handy. He has good upside and still trying to prove to Boston that he's the one they let get away.
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| | | 14 | smartone @work
Donor
ID: 29452720
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 11:54
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11.13 Geoff Jenkins OF, MIL
When healthy, Jenkins is at least a tier-2 hitter. At 29, near his prime, he finds himself as the best(?) hitter of a low quality offense which may turn into more pitches around him (higher OBP, lower RBI and Runs) while keeping his SLG% at around .500. All in all, we need 4 OFs, and I think that Jenkins was the better one left on the Board to fill its final spot for me.
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| | | 15 | Trip
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 12:07
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11.14 Dontrelle Willis, P. Fla
I considered Dontrelle with both picks in the last two rounds and am honestly amazed that he made it back to me here. I double-checked to make sure there wasn’t any recent news that would have downgraded him and I am doubly happy with this pick, as he is such a fun guy to watch. I see no reason to think that Dontrelle will do worse this year than last, and am expecting a 15 win season from him this year, not to mention the fact that he has the potential to post 180+ K’s. Here’s hoping I am grinning as wide as him at the end of the fantasy season this year.
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| | | 17 | darkside
Dude
ID: 3590317
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 12:57
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11.15 Carl Everett - OF - Mon
Solid, but not spectacular, numbers last year moved me to draft Everett. He had decent SLG and OBP numbers and was just shy of 100/100. I don't usually like getting guys that have changed leagues, but OF was getting thin and I like the fact that he'll play a lot of games in PR; hopefully his power numbers will increase with that. He ended the season on a strong note and given he played the bulk of the season (147 games) it bodes well that perhaps his injury troubles are behind him. I'd be happy with .470/.350/90/90 and even a couple of SB's. Good enough for a 3rd OF spot.
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| | | 18 | KrazyKoalaBears
Leader
ID: 517553018
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 13:42
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11.16 Raul Ibanez - OF/1B - SEA I figure Ibanez would have been a 12-13 round pick in this league and grabbed him a bit early for his 1B qualification. I'm planning on him being a steady player in R, RBI, SLG, and OBP and to throw in a few SB. Mainly, I wanted to open up some flexibility in my roster with this pick so I could use Ibanez at OF, 1B, CI, or UTIL. That opens up a lot of possibilities for FA pickups, IMHO.
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| | | 19 | KrazyKoalaBears
Leader
ID: 517553018
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 13:48
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12.01 Brad Radke - P - MIN I played it a bit safe with this pick. I wanted another SP to go with my more risky picks of Hudson and Batista and decided to go to someone I figure will be reliable. Radke won't win many categories for me, but I doubt he'll lose any for me either. He only has one season where he started fewer than 28 games (21 in 2002), so I plan on him being around all year. Radke has a strong career K/BB ratio (1124/364) and figure he'll be somewhere around a 4.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. If he can pick up 15 wins and 120 K's (similar to 2003 and 2001), I'll be more than happy with this pick.
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| | | 21 | darkside
Dude
ID: 3590317
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 14:21
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12.02 Bob Wickman - RP - Cle
Wickman may have been a stretch, but with the lack of closers I wasn't left with a whole lot of options. I thought seriously about Baez, but he did end up losing his closer job last year in Cle, so I was a bit concerned about his ability to be the primary guy in TB. From what I've heard and read, there's a good chance Wickman will end up being the go-to guy in Cle and if he performs anywhere near the level prior to his injury, he'll have been a steal. But it's a solid bullpen and he's by no means assured of a job. It's a risk I was willing to take as I know 1 closer won't get it done here.
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| | | 22 | Trip
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 14:59
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12.03 Woody Williams, P StL
Best pitcher available, and even with the Dontrelle steal, I still need pitchers. ESPN has Woody sandwiched between Willis and Contreras in their rankings. I am a little worried about the elbow tendonitis, but this guy is tough. Barring injury, you know what you are getting with Woody – 15+ wins, 150 + K, an ERA around 4 and a WHIP close to 1.25.
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| | | 23 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 15:01
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12.04 Damaso Marte, P, ChW
First I take Jason Bay on the early side, and then this?
The remaining closers all have some warts – either returning from injury, job insecurity, lousy ratios, etc. Although I have two closers on the roster already, I was still prepared to take a third to ice this category – but I can’t get comfortable that the potential gains from the extra saves would offset the attendant risks. I’m sure there’s a worthy closer among the 8 or so remaining. I’m just not convinced that I can pick him out at this juncture.
Lately, a lot of teams seem to be filling their difficult hitting positions – particularly catcher and 2B. I’ve still got openings in both slots, but I can’t get comfortable that anyone chosen now offers good value. We’ll see how badly that stance comes back to bite me.
Best hitter available? Aside from catcher and 2B/MI, all I need is a corner infielder and a DH. There are still many respectable names available, and I don’t foresee a scarcity squeeze emerging in the next round.
How about another starter? I have only 2 so far. Again, I see some reasonable choices out there, but none that are calling out to me right now.
Billy Koch is still the putative White Sox closer. But his hold on the job is tentative at best (he wasn't even drafted until our 16th round), and Marte gives them an easy alternative. Even if Marte never assumes regular closing duties, I expect him to get a few saves each month when lefty-righty situations dictate, or when anyone else is simply too nerve-wracking to endure. And with 2 closers on my roster, I’d prefer a partial closer with upside in lieu of a full time closer with significant downside risk. At worst, I consider Marte a good ratio contributer; at best, he could be my 3rd closer (or trade bait).
Regardless of my outlook, is it too early to be taking Marte? Quite possibly. But I have a plan. Maybe not a good plan, but a plan.
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| | | 24 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 15:17
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12.05 Jose Guillen, OF, Ana
My team didn't have a glaring weakness for speed, so I decided to go with the best player available IMM to help my team. He has some players to help him now which he didn't really have in Cincy and Oakland. The park isn't going to be as favorable as Cincy when he went nuts, so I don't expect the same numbers, but I think he could be right there now that he gets a chance to play every day from the get go.
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| | | 25 | Species
Leader
ID: 7724916
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 17:25
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12.06 Eric Milton - SP - PHI
There is a theme to my pitching staff, but it is too early to let the cat out of the bag. Let's just say that Milton fits my basic profile and he is no slouch in terms of pitching ability either. He came back well from his knee injury for 3 games last year - and of course it was comforting that it was his knee and not an arm injury he is recovering from.
I think Milton has lots of upside on a solid Phillies team that is expected to win big. I also think the projected WHIP I am using is way too high, as his last 2 full seasons his WHIP averaged roughly 1.235 which is excellent. Plus he's going to the National League with no DH, so that should benefit his ERA and WHIP stats. His strikeouts are okay and I also believe his strikeout projection is low. There's a health risk still with the knee, but the fact that he came back last year and had a successful September gave me a lot of comfort.
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| | | 26 | jumpball
Leader
ID: 49346417
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 22:14
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12.07 Torii Hunter - OF - Min
My original idea was to find another closer here. As the pick got closer, I noticed a couple of starting pitchers that I wanted: Woody and Milton. Alas, they both were off the board along with Wickman. I saw Baez, but thought he might slip to the next round. Torii stood out among the other available players -- he should put up better stats than last year with plenty of RBI opportunities.
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| | | 27 | J
Leader
ID: 49346417
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 22:17
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12.08 Robb Nen - CL - SF
Well, this is pick 2 of 3 of the risky old guy portion of my draft. With Gagne, I can afford to get a lesser closer, but getting a guy like Nen could be a saves category clincher if he's healthy. Big if, get it? :)
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| | | 28 | smartone
ID: 35254317
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 22:29
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12.09 Mark Redman
I needed to improve my pitching categories and picking a solid pitcher that goes to pitch in the pitchers-heaven (aka Oakland) made sense for the 12th round.
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| | | 29 | Peter N.
Donor
ID: 257161713
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 22:34
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12.10 Chad Cordero
Cordero was my sleeper candidate for saves going into the draft and after Marte and Nen came off the board, I didn’t think I could wait any longer. He posted a 1.64 ERA in 12 appearances at the end of last year and early reports show him picking up where he left off in Spring Training. The fact is, Biddle is not very good, and Cordero is the future for them at closer. I’m banking on Cordero taking over at closer by May, if not sooner. I expect 25-30 saves from him and a good ERA and WHIP. (you won‘t find those projections anywhere else!)
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| | | 30 | blue hen
ID: 4300290
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 23:33
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12.12 Mike MacDougal, P, KC
I saw Mike MacDougal pitch in single-A. Back then, we called him "effectively wild" and that still holds true today. Shawn Chacon is a great pitcher, but I'm not sure how secure I feel with him as my second closer. I was glad to get MacDougal, and I'm pretty set for now. There were about five others I pondered (and even asked some true experts about) but MacDougal was clearly the one (and the experts agreed).
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| | | 31 | Caper
ID: 217351118
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 23:34
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12.11 Bobby Crosby-SS-Oak
A second middle infielder. The information I could find on Crosby says he will be a good one. He is a gamble, given his age and it being his first year. He has shown good pop at the triple A level and looks great in spring training games. This may a little early for a player so young, but I was not enthralled by the other possibilities and like to have a possible diamond in the rough around.
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| | | 32 | Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 217351118
Wed, Mar 10, 2004, 23:36
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12.13 Byung Hyun Kim - P - Bos
Now, exactly who is Kim's competition for the 5th starter job in Boston? Whoever they are, they don't boast a career 3.24/1.161 ERA/WHIP, including 2.84/1.074 in the last 3 years - and 3.37/1.123 last year for Boston. Add to that the fact that Kim also has more career Ks than IP, and I think I got a steal in round 12.
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| | | 33 | Tosh
Sustainer
ID: 57721710
Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 03:02
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12.14 Joe Crede, 3B, CHI-A
I started saying in my rationale for pick 8 that I need a 3B, but I kept passing on the available guys, hoping Crede or Alfonzo (who went at 13.09) would still be hanging around for this pick. He's reaching that age where he should start hitting that potential he has (and not be suffering from the sophomore slump). He's surrounded by an abundance of hitting talent. I expect a solid but unspectacular season.
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| | | 34 | beastiemiked
ID: 2601988
Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 09:36
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12.15 Pat Burrell, OF, PHI
Last year he was terrible. Quite possibly the biggest fantasy disappointment of 2003. There is no way he duplicates his numbers from last year, either they go up or he loses his starting job. I'm hoping for numbers from his 2002 campaign but I'll be happy with numbers similar to his 2001 season. He should provide solid RBI and run contributions while not helping or hurting OBP or SLG. He also has the potential to have a monster season which is pretty good risk/reward during this part of the draft. I was really looking at Griffey Jr. here as well but his inability to play an injury free season is what scared me off.
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| | | 35 | Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 48927711
Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 10:36
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12.16 Danys Baez, P, TB
I hadn't intentionally been avoiding closers ups to this point. Several times I'd debated picking one or had been planning on drafting a particular closer only to see him snatched a couple of picks before me. I guess it came down to always deciding that there was a potentially more valuable player available. That was probably the case this time around, but I felt I needed to get a guy who seemed to have a good lock on the closer position before they were all gone. Baez has had some relative success as a closer before and I would think the Devil Rays should get a few wins this year. Admittedly, I can't say I follow them too closely, but they've got a core nucleus of good young offensive players that should be able to consistently put up runs and hopefully outscore their opponents on occasion.
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| | | 36 | Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 48927711
Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 10:38
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13.01 Ken Griffey, Jr; OF; Cin
This time around I started taking some risks - first Baez and now Junior. In the RIBC hoops qualifying league I took the perenially injured Vince Carter and that has turned out pretty well for me, and like I said then you don't win these leagues without taking some risks. Griffey still continues to put up awesome (for the 13th round) percentages when he's in the lineup. I'll probably have to pick an extra OF later to back him up, but if he could make it in 130 games or so, I'll be happy.
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| | | 37 | beastiemiked
ID: 2601988
Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 10:55
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13.02 Brett Myers, SP, PHI
I went with the best available SP here. Myers has a ton of potential and he showed it during the first half of the season last year. He faded towards the end but hopefully with a full season under his belt his numbers will improve. He plays for a good team which should help his win totals.
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| | | 38 | Tosh
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 10:59
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13.03 Brian Lawrence, P, SD
I decided to add a pitcher to my staff, and wanted to select one that does more good than harm, and narrowed my search to Lawrence and Freddy Garcia. Even as a die-hard Mariner fan, I could not muster the strength to select Freddy. Lawrence is good enough to have been named the opening day starter for San Diego, and finished strong last season ( a 5-2 record and 2.66 ERA in his final 10 starts). In 5-6 more draft picks, we'll be drafting scrubs, so the 200+ innings he'll give me will be useful.
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| | | 39 | Mattinglyinthehall
Leader
ID: 1629107
Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 11:02
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13.04 Felix Rodriguez - P – SF
Felix was not the most talented setup man available by any standards, but what he does have going for him is that he happens to be a potential closer-in-waiting on a playoff contender that currently employs Robb Nen. Even if Nen stays healthy enough to keep his job all season (and to his credit, there has only been good news for him so far this spring), it is reasonable to assume that he still might not be able to carry the regular workload of a full-time closer, especially in the early going. Hopes for an improved ERA and WHIP and a minimum of 10 saves for Felix seem reasonable, assuming his new two-seam sinker that has been breaking bats this spring serves him well in the regular season.
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| | | 40 | blue hen
ID: 4300290
Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 13:50
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13.05 Alex Sanchez, OF, DET
I felt the need... the need... for speed. I'd say Alex Sanchez has as good a shot as anyone to lead the Majors in stolen bases in 2004. In my own humble opinion, I like his chances even better than Juan Pierre's. Species did some math with Dave Roberts, and I agree - I don't think Sanchez will bring my OBP or SLG down as far as his steals will bring me up in that department. The revamped Tiger lineup should also help his runs scored. In the 13th round, Sanchez is great. Although we've got many more rounds to go, I really feel like Sanchez is the last pick representing my "core" - everyone else is just trying not to lose, rather than trying to win. With that knowledge, I feel that I'm in good shape.
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| | | 41 | smartone @work
Donor
ID: 29452720
Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 14:22
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13.06 Rocky Biddle, RP, MON
I did not think one reliever would be enough to keep me competitive in the saves catagory. The relievers left now all seemed to come with question marks. Health, competition, ability or whatever. Biddle was quite effective for the first half of last season, but had a very difficult August. That knowledge, and going in a declared closer should give him cause to go back to his first half form. As an Expos fan, I am hoping they will have a team that will hang aroud the .500 mark (75-80 wins). He is no big help in any other category except saves but if he gave me 20-25 saves, he will have done his job here.
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| | | 42 | smartone @work
Donor
ID: 29452720
Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 14:23
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13.07 Melvin Mora, OF, BAL
Mora’s only current position is OF, but that will change after 15 games at 3rd base. This will provide me with flexibility. He will be able to fill my need for a 4th outfielder or for a CI. With such a short bench, I think its important to have some flexibility to your lineup. Mora should provide nice %s, particularly the OBP%, and also contribute in the SB cat.
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| | | 43 | smartone @work
Donor
ID: 29452720
Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 14:27
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13.08 Jarod Washburn, OF, OAK
Will Washburn return to his 2002 form, or will he have a medicore season similar to 2003? Well, I needed another SP and with a stronger offense and ___ (placeholder) I hope that he somewhat recovers. All in all, a line of 13 124 206 3.91 1.24 is within reach and is something that I'll be very happy with.
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| | | 44 | J
Leader
ID: 49346417
Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 18:05
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13.09 Edgardo Alfonzo - 3B - SF
I've always like Alfonzo and wish the Mets would've kept him, but his asking price was too high. But, that has nothing to do with fantasy baseball. Last year his OBP fell 57 points while he had some back problems. Now he's completely healthy for the first time in a few years and I'm hoping he can bounce back and put up solid numbers hitting behind Bonds.
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| | | 45 | jumpball
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 18:09
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13.10 Freddie Garcia - SP - Sea
With Baez and Biddle both gone, the available closers were not worth taking this high. With at least one player at each position, I started looking at starters. Still a bunch with familiar names. I looked up the latest on Freddie and read that he was in great shape and throwing well. I've had Freddie on at least one team every one of the last 3 years . . . might as well continue the streak!
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| | | 46 | Species
Leader
ID: 7724916
Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 18:27
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13.11 Mike Cameron - OF - NYM
A little bit of a reach pick, but the OF's on my list all had their share of warts. I wanted Griffey in this spot but he didn't make it very far into the round. Cameron was an acceptable fallback position. He is slated to hit 5th or 6th in the Mets lineup that has new tablesetters Matsui and Reyes in front of Piazza and Floyd. Sure Shea Stadium is a lousy park for hitters, but so was Safeco so it's not as if Cameron's numbers will take a hit. I think the Mets lineup has a decent chance to score some runs, and I expect them to be in the upper half of the NL.
What I really hope happens is that Cameron returns to his 30 SB form of 2001 and 2002. As it is now, he's projected with 22 SB's and I needed them. I could afford to give up some SLG and OBP. But Cameron really does need to steal at least that 22 SB's or this pick is not of great value.
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| | | 47 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 21:10
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13.12 Steve Trachsel, P, NYM
There were better SPs on the board IMM, but, this guy showed us some flashes of brilliance last year. He is the #2 starter in a pitcher's park that actually has some people behind him and an upgrade in hitting it seems. He isn't spectacular but if he can hold steady and benefit from the guys around him, I think another solid year is a high probability. A lot of time I will make picks on how they did last year or how they finished the year or how they look in their team this year. Call it "manager nullification" of stats sometimes, but, while perhaps I could have gotten him later, at least I got him and I'm not sure it was that much of a reach anyhow.
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| | | 48 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 21:13
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13.13 Kevin Millar, 1B/OF, Bos
That’s an ominous sounding pick number, isn’t it?
I still need a catcher. I still need a second baseman. I still need a middle infielder. By the time I get them, those slots will really suck. So be it. When I look at the list of eligible names, I can’t get comfortable that any of them might be back on fantasy waivers before the end of April. Maybe even before the end of March. Those slots will be my crosses to bear this year.
I also need a corner infielder, and that list, while dwindling in quality, still has some non-scary names. Millar is one of the few with potential to have average slugging and OBP. Just about everyone else looks to be tilted toward either power or OB – or neither. Millar’s 1B/OF eligibility might also come in handy, although at this point I envision him in my CI slot. His post-All Star numbers dropped off last year, and that’s a bit of a concern – but no one left in this draft comes without some “issues”. Put me down for an optimistic 80-90-2-.475-.350
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| | | 49 | Trip
Donor
ID: 13961611
Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 21:22
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13.14 Corey Patterson - OF - ChN
Corey was a top 3 prospect for 2 years before making his way to the bigs. He was set to make his breakout season last year before tearing his ACL midway through the season. This could be his breakout season. While he has been streaky, he is a potential 5-tool player and his full fantasy value may not be recognized due to last year's injury. 100 runs is a low projection for him as he is projected to bat second in this powerful Cubs lineup, however his RBI opps might suffer. 25 dingers and 90 RBI are also possible but his greatest strength may be his speed: if his knee is fully healed, 40 SB is a viable projection for this soon to be 25 year-old.
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| | | 50 | darkside
ID: 4218517
Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 23:58
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13.15 Kenny Lofton - OF - NYY
I had actually considered Lofton in the previous round, but thought he'd come back around and wanted another closer more. So, when this pick came and he was still available, I decided I may as well fill up my OF. There's certainly a risk with Lofton, namely his age (37), especially when part of his value is his SB's, and Bernie Williams. He should get plenty of ab's as both he and Bernie will probably also DH some, but him not having a guaranteed spot is a worry. But, I think he'll get his time, give reasonable run, slg and obp numbers, especially given the lineup of which he'll be a part, and add some SB's.
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| | | 51 | KrazyKoalaBears
Leader
ID: 517553018
Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 08:45
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13.16 Raul Mondesi - OF - PIT This and my next pick were both for veteran players who I thought would give me consistent production along the lines of what they've done over the past few years. Mondesi has average numbers, but he's never been less than 523 AB over the last 3 seasons. He should be good for about 80 R, 75 RBI, 20 SB, .450 SLG, and .330 OBP. Even if he only gets close to that, I'll be happy with this pick.
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| | | 52 | KrazyKoalaBears
Leader
ID: 517553018
Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 08:52
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14.01 Juan Encarnacion - OF - LOS Though Encarnacion isn't quite the veteran that Mondesi is, he still has 5 years of solid experience and that was more than other players I had listed around him. While his SLG and OBP aren't all that great, I'll be happy if he repeats last year's totals of 80 R, 94 RBI, 19 SB, .446 SLG, and .313 OBP. As with the previous pick, I wanted a player who was more likely to get previous year's numbers and I think Encarnacion can do that.
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| | | 53 | darkside
Dude
ID: 3590317
Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 09:07
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14.02 Jay Gibbons - OF - Bal
I was going back and forth between Lofton and Gibbons, so I decided to get both. Given the fact that Lofton may have to sit some days, I didn't think it would be bad to have another OF who can put up decent numbers. The last two years have shown that Gibbons can produce with some regularity and from what I've read, similar, if not better, results are a reasonable expectation this year. Too, maybe I'm being swayed by the local media (I'm in DC), but I think the O's will have a fairly productive lineup this year and I think having other fairly good hitters around can only help him. Also, there's talk that he could get enough starts at first base to qualify, making him more attractive. Being only 27, I think he can still show marked improvement and, given that, think it's reasonable to expect slg in the .460-.470ish range, 100rbi and 75r. My one concern is his obp, but that's a concern for most of the guys I've drafted, so why allow that to sway me?
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| | | 54 | Trip
Donor
ID: 13961611
Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 09:09
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14.03 Rich Harden - SP - Oak
I was surprised that Harden made it to me here, but had I written my rationale before drafting him, I might have gone to my second choice (luckily he made it back to me). He has had a sore shoulder at the beginning of spring training and didn't fare too well when he did take the hill. That being said, I still like this guy's potential. He will be at a pitcher's park, should get good run support and he should put up 150 plus strikeouts. His WHIP is a little higher than I would like, but he is young and should develop over the course of the season.
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| | | 55 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 10:02
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14.04 Jose Valverde, P, Ari
I don’t think there's any issue over the merits of Valverde. The only debate would be whether I’m taking him too early. But when I grabbed Matt Mantei as my second closer in round 8, I circled Valverde as a “gots to have”. Mantei has had durability problems, and has also been mentioned as possible trade fodder. So while Valverde can make a valuable contribution even if Mantei remains in place all season, he offers my team additional value as “Mantei insurance”.
Here’s my expectation: 4 wins, 10 saves (even with a healthy Mantei, he’ll get some), a sub-3.00 ERA, a low WHIP (between 1.0 and 1.2), and more strikeouts than IP (last year he struck out 71 in 50 innings).
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| | | 56 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 10:23
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14.05 A.J. Pierzynski, C, SF
I've been looking at him a long time and I like him much better than the other players I had to choose from. With 5 teams still w/o a catcher, it makes good trade bait. But if I keep him, his obp is certainly helpful at my DH spot. When I got Varitek, I thought AJ would be coming off the board right behind him, but I was wrong. I really figured Guru would take AJ with his pick, but when he didn't I ditched the guy I was prepared to take for him.I also flashed back to last year on my G20 team. I only had Piazza and when he got hurt I was forced to use guys such as [name deleted to protect the undrafted] and it absolutely killed me. Every time a C had a game that was even decent and was on the FA list I'd pick him up only to swap again with the C du jour. This is a horrible position to have to be w/o and AJ has a solid OBP. Even though he's in a pitcher's park, he sprays the ball around and should continue to do well depending on where he's at in the lineup with the "Bonds factor." There are many other players I could have taken at this spot that could have really helped me, but I felt that AJ had slid so far down and with a Varitek injury, I just felt that I had to grab him.
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| | | 57 | Species
Leader
ID: 7724916
Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 10:34
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14.06 Dave Roberts - OF - LA
There's the pick that will make or break my season.....Dave Roberts :( Ugh.
I ran the numbers. Roberts only barely hurts my OBP (down to .365 from .367) and does kill the SLG (from .500 to .486!), but I needed the steals and if I'm punting saves I can't punt steals too.
For comparison sake I compared my team to both Slackjawed and KKB's teams to see how they stack up. I used Slack and KKB because they had each picked C's and 2b's, the 2 positions that likely affect the numbers downward as much as any position. KKB actually had the exact same number of hitters in the same positions as I did, so it was a very apples-to-apples approach.
Using the same projections I've been using for the draft, Roberts didn't hurt me horribly in the other categories. I was still ahead of Slack in average RBI, runs and SB's per player (he currently has only 9 hitters to my 10), yet was only .002 behind in OBP and .001 behind in SLG. Conceivably, when Slack picks his next player, that person will bring those two stats down to where I am, thus giving me comfort that the SLG I've been stacking up on to cover a Sanchez or Roberts type was worth it.
KKB has a different dynamic. KKB kicks my butt in runs - has a small advantage in SB, but I smoke him in OBP and SLG and have a small advantage in RBI.
Point of the post - Roberts is a huge risk. There's health as well as the fact that the Dodgers could be looking to replace him. Hopefully the projections I'm using that only give Roberts 62 runs and 44 SB's are low. Roberts got 40 steals in only 110 or so games, so if he plays 135 games I am hopeful for 50 steals. I don't believe the Dodgers can be any more pathetic on offense than last year, so 62 runs in 135 games seems low too.
If Roberts loses his job I've wasted a pick and I'm (bleeped) for steals.
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| | | 58 | jumpball
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 12:30
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14.07 Vinny Castilla, 3B, Col
I wanted a middle infielder or a 3B for this pick to help with roster flexibility. I considered Spivey and Spezio as well as Castilla, but the idea of platooning Castilla when he's playing at home was too good to spend the pick on either of the other 2 guys. Also briefly considered taking Durazo, but eventually decided to stick with the plan.
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| | | 59 | J
Donor
ID: 29452720
Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 16:05
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14.08 Erubiel Durazo
I see Durazo as a guy who could potentially step up and replace what the A's lost with Tejada bailing. He's always had all the potential in the world, now he's got a little experience under his belt with a full season in the majors. At this point in the draft, you've gotta go with potential, and thats exactly what Durazo is, a potential!
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| | | 60 | smartone @work
Donor
ID: 29452720
Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 16:17
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14.09 Ugueth Urbina, RP, FA
UU, is the World-Champion's closer. Once he signs with an MLB team, he will get at least 5-6 save opportunities a month (even last year's Tigers had this number of save opportunities) that will hopefully go along with 1.15/3.10 WHIP/ERA and a bunch of K's. There are too many teams without an "real" closer, so I hope that UU will be smart enough to take a reasonable 1-year offer and stay around, otherwise, I'll ask Yahoo to include stats from the Japanese/Venezuelaian league in our Roto league. All in all, I think that the risk/reward of this pick made a lot of sense at the 14th round and I really hope not to see a headline like "UU signed with the Yomiuri Giants" this season.
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| | | 61 | Peter N.
ID: 42234917
Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 17:06
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14.10 D'Angelo Jimenez I was all set to take Durazo with this pick, but J grabbed him two picks from me. This forced me to finally address my glaring need for a 2nd basemen. Jimenez still being available this late in the draft come as somewhat of a surprise. I’m hoping he continues where he left off last year with the Reds and doesn’t revert back to what he did with the White Sox. He’ll bat leadoff and has a decent OBP% when you consider what‘s left out there at 2nd. Double digit home runs and stolen bases are expected too. |
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| | | 62 | Caper
Donor
ID: 1535108
Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 21:16
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14.11 Bernie Williams Sure he just had an appendectomy and was hurt a lot of last year. He will be back right after the Japan series and will get his AB's in that line-up. He is a reliable source of Ave, SLG, RBI's and even some runs in that line-up. He was not a very attractive pick earlier on, but for a 14th round selection, I believe there is still some considerable upside here.
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| | | 63 | blue hen
ID: 217351118
Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 21:24
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14.12 John Olerud, 1B, Sea
I agonized and agonized over John Olerud and Edgar Martinez. I knew I wanted one of those guys to make up for Alex Sanchez. Both are professional hitters, and both are pretty much locks to have OBPs over .400. Edgar has a little more power, but isn't eligible at 1B, only at DH. I figured I didn't want to waste my position of total-flexibility this early, so I went for Olerud. I also considered Rich Aurilia and Paul Konerko at this point, but really wanted the firepower to make up for Sanchez.
Oh, and if we change the categories at the last minute and include fielding, Olerud is the best defensive first baseman in the history of baseball. |
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| | | 64 | Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 217351118
Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 21:24
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14.13 Craig Wilson - Pit - C
Playing time, shmaying time. Craig killed left-handed pitching last year (1.123 OPS). Supposedly he will be the right-handed portion of the 1b platoon with Randal Simon, who's OPS was only .015 better against right-handed pitching. Perhaps it will come back to bite me, but I just find it hard to believe that a team such as the Pirates that isn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut will have trouble finding at-bats for such a dangerous hitter who is their best established power threat and who can play (albeit poorly) 3 different positions.
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| | | 67 | Tosh
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 13, 2004, 13:33
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14.14 Ramon Hernandez, C, SD
I need a catcher, and so does beastiemiked (who has 2 picks before it comes around to me again), so I selected the catcher least likely to hurt me. Hernandez is coming off a year in which he set career highs in batting average (.273), home runs (21), RBI (78) and OPS (.789). I don’t expect numbers quite this solid, but certainly comparable.
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| | | 68 | beastiemiked
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 13, 2004, 13:35
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14.15 LaTroy Hawkins, P, ChC
I almost picked him last round so I was very surprised and happy he made it back to me. He is 15-3 the past 2 season with an excellent ERA and WHIP. If he puts up numbers similar to last year I would be ecstatic as he would be steal this late in the draft. There's also a chance that Borowski faulters and if that happens Hawkins should get a number of save ops.
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| | | 69 | Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 13, 2004, 13:36
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14.16 Scott Spiezio,1b/3b, Sea 15.01 Moises Alou, OF, CHC With this set of picks, I was trying to fill in some holes on my squad with positions that were growing increasingly thinner. The expectations I have for both guys are pretty similar: ~85 rbi, 75 runs, .450 SLG. Alou should get on base a little more.
With Spiezio, I liked his multiposition availability, as he'll be able to fill in at either corner infielder spot. He'll be going to a hitters park, but he's never really been a homerun hitter, and has put up suprisingly high slugging percentages with two-baggers.
Although he's getting up in age, Alou was pretty durable last year and word is he has really worked hard in the offseason. Looking at other teams rosters, I could see that quite a few needed outfielders still. And Alou was the one I had rated the highest.[placeholder]
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| | | 70 | beastiemiked
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 13, 2004, 13:36
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15.02 Josh Phelps, DH, Tor
Very risky pick as he's only eligible to be my utility guy. However, I think he's got a decent upside and should give me some decent OBP and SLG% numbers. I'm not expecting a breakout season but I'd be disappointed if he didn't improve on last years numbers. I've now got all my hitting positions filled except MI and catcher so it's time to start concentrating on pitching.
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| | | 71 | Tosh
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 13, 2004, 13:37
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15.03 Doug Mientkiewicz, 1B, Min
If he slumps a bit, he may lose his job to one of the several young studs waiting in the Minnesota wings, but for now he is an above average fantasy 1B. He’s quite solid in OPB, but not quite so solid in SLG%. He had wrist surgery in the off-season so maybe that will increase his power and strength, and he’ll have good opportunities in the runs and RBI categories. A solid selection to fill my corner infield slot.
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| | | 72 | Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 217351118
Sat, Mar 13, 2004, 13:38
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15.04 - Aaron Miles - 2B - Col
Still lacking a 2b and not a single one stood out from he pack. When in doubt, go with the rookie in Coors field who is expected to win the starting job. Miles kept his OPS at right around .800 in one season each at both the AA and AAA levels and his numbers suggest a little pop, which could potentially translate into 8 - 12 hr as a Rockie. His SB totals went down from 25 to 8 in the transition to AAA and he was also caught stealing 9 times at the AAA level, so I'm not terribly optimistic that he will get many steals as a Rockie. He is slated to hit second, however, so the run totals should be a nice benefit, given the thumpers that follow in the order.
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| | | 73 | blue hen
Leader
ID: 17103420
Sun, Mar 14, 2004, 07:07
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15.05 Edgar Martinez, DH, Sea
As noted in the John Olerud comment, I was looking for some solid rates to make up for the low OBP and SLG of Alex Sanchez (and some as-yet-unpicked middle infielders). I picked Olerud because he can play 1B or util, whereas Edgar can only play util. That said, I think Edgar is the superior hitter, so I'm glad I was able to get both. At this point, I can worry about other positions and not have any worry that I'll struggle in the rate stats.
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| | | 74 | Caper
Donor
ID: 17103420
Sun, Mar 14, 2004, 07:08
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15.06 Rich Aurilia, SS, Sea Bobby Crosby was selected as my first SS a while ago and he is young with lots of potential. That may translate into a ROY candidate or a young player not ready to produce yet. Aurilla is the safety net here. The power numbers may never be what they were 3-4 years ago, but he is still a solid reliable SS option who will produce with the second-tier options at SS. Any return to the form of the past will be a bonus.
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| | | 75 | Peter N.
Sustainer
ID: 17103420
Sun, Mar 14, 2004, 07:09
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15.07 Francisco Rodriguez, RP, ANA K-Rod broke out in the playoff run two years ago with the Angels. He built on that experience last year posting impressive #s in ERA, WHIP, and Ks. He’s also just one Troy Percival injury away from being a top-notch closer. He’ll help bolster my ERA, WHIP and strikeout categories. Never really considered anybody else with this pick.
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| | | 76 | smartone
ID: 35254317
Sun, Mar 14, 2004, 07:55
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15.08 Jacque Jones
This was one of the easier picks, for me, in the draft. I was looking for another OF player and JJ was waaay on the top of my list. He has a nice spring training (not that it matters THAT much, but it's always nice), he is at the right age (28) so I figure that hitting his projected numbers of (83 76 15 0.340 0.493) is within reach and would work well for the 4th OF in my roster.
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| | | 77 | J
ID: 48281412
Sun, Mar 14, 2004, 13:26
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15.09 Darin Erstad - OF - Ana
I don't see many projections that agree with me, but I think Erstad could have a pretty good year. He's still only 29 years old, but it seems like he's been around forever now. If he could just stay healthy, he could be a real steal this late, especially if he's healthy enough to run again. He stole 20+ bases in 01 & 02, but then just 1 last year. With a lineup featuring Vlad, Erstad could get more to hit, and it looks like he'll be playing 1B, so multi-positional guys are always nice to have.
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| | | 80 | jumpball
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 14, 2004, 20:47
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15.10 Jermaine Dye, OF, Oak
I left a queue just before J picked of Darin Erstad and Jermaine Dye. He took Darren so I took Jermaine. I felt these 2 were the best hitters available and I still had the Util slot to fill in my everyday lineup.
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| | | 81 | Species
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 14, 2004, 20:49
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15.11 Junior Spivey, 2B, Mil
How do you spell REACH? I'm not sure if it's R-E-A-C-H or S-P-I-V-E-Y
I called Guru this morning to get an update on the draft, as I was travelling away from the office and didn't want to hold the draft up if it was my turn. In a bluff, I told Guru "Do you wanna trade with me to take Spivey, or else I'm gonna". He didn't take the bait, but the more I looked at the dwindling pool of middle infielders that won't absolutely kill your OBP and SLG, taking a risk on Spivey seemed to make more and more sense. Add that to the fact that three of the five teams drafting after me need BOTH a 2b AND a middle infielder (and the other 2 teams need a middle infielder as well), and this pick was one part need and one part to screw the other teams behind me and cross one more 2b off the books.
Spivey has risk but certainly has some upside. He's played 3 ML seasons of 72, 143 and 106 games with a wide range of success in those 3. But if you run a 3-year average, he has a .362 OBP and .445 SLG for an OPS of .807. While OBP and SLG are only 2 of the 5 components, I don't believe any other MI available is capable of an OPS of .800.
I did some research and the Milwaukee papers seem convinced that Spivey is the full time 2b and slated to hit either 2nd or 3rd. In Spivey's career year in 2002, he hit 2nd in the lineup and flourished. Podsednik is a much superior table setter than Tony Womack, so I am hopeful that Spivey will have a solid season as my 3rd middle infielder. Here's hopin'
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| | | 82 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Sun, Mar 14, 2004, 21:10
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15.12 Paul Konerko, 1B, ChW
I was looking at getting Edwin Jackson here as he is showing great promise even this year at the time I was drafting. My entire list was gone again and Jackson was on my side lists of people not to overlook even though he won't be on most stats from the year before or ranked very highly on most projection charts. Since my entire list was gone, Jackson was at the top by virtue of elimination.
I checked the hitters I could use and Boom Konerko just JUMPED out at me. I checked twice to make sure he was still available and then to make sure he wasn't injured and indeed starting. Even though this guy flat out stunk the first half of last year, he started showing flashes of incredibility in the second half that reminded us all of 2002. He then kind of fizzled out again at the end of the year, but needing a CI and grabbing this guy with, what, pick #236 was a good value for me as long as he didn't play like he did the first of last year.
Looks like I have several White Sox players, but that may not be all bad. I figured I'd rather have to get someone other than Edwin if he wasn't around then to try and replace what Konerko could bring to the table by bypassing him.
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| | | 83 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 14, 2004, 21:29
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15.13 Rafael Soriano, P, Sea
I’m not really sure what I’m getting with this pick: a solid set-up man who’ll get a few saves, a backup closer, Guardado insurance, an eventual 5th starter, or an injury problem. He hasn’t pitched yet this spring, but I can’t find any suggestions that his season is at all in jeopardy. What I do know I’m getting is a 24 year old with a high-90s fastball who held opposing batters to a .162 average last year (and only .111 with runners in scoring position), someone who posted an ERA under 2.00 both at home and on the road last year, and someone who struck out 68 batters in just 53 innings. With Guardado ailing a bit this spring, this gives me a little more comfort. But I really hope he develops into a starter. I think that would give this pick the most upside potential.
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| | | 84 | Trip
Donor
ID: 13961611
Mon, Mar 15, 2004, 00:10
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15.14 Edwin Jackson - SP - LA
When someone with great expectations falls to you at this point in the draft you don't question it. Last year Jackson became the youngest player since Gooden to win his ML debut. NL ROTY? Jackson appears to have locked up the 5th starting spot in the Dodgers rotation this year and would be the favorite for the ROTY award if K. Matsui was ruled ineligible (as he probably should be). Other players were considered at this spot but only because I did not think King Edwin would make it back to me here, and let's face it, he should not have in this deep of a league.
Jackson is a power pitcher and if he can log the innings, 200 K's is not an unachievable number. He also has the added advantage of playing most of his games at a pitcher's park, which should help him maintain an ERA of less than 3.5. Throw in a WHIP of 1.25, 15 Wins and I may just have landed the steal of the draft.
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| | | 86 | darkside
ID: 4218517
Mon, Mar 15, 2004, 11:16
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15.15 Desi Relaford - 2B - KC
Given that I still needed 2B, MI and CI at this juncture, I thought it best to addess one of those issues. MI had been getting periously thin, so I decided to look at 2B and SS. I don't have an SB specialists, mainly just a few guys who also get 15-20 stolen bases, so I was hoping to find someone who could fit that profile while not destroying me in slg and obp. Relaford stuck out as it looks like he's got the 2B job locked up in KC, should get 15-20 SB's and has eligibility at 3B and OF. The hope of him not killing my obp is a slight one, but one I guess I'll live with. The short of it was that I needed someone to put here, and he looked like one of the better remaining options.
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| | | 87 | KrazyKoalaBears
Leader
ID: 517553018
Mon, Mar 15, 2004, 11:31
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15.16 Jay Payton - OF - SDG First off, let me get all the concerns out of the way. 1) He's moving from COL to SDG. 2) He's battled injuries during his career and currently has a hamstring bothering him. 3) He's never shown much outside of COL. Okay, with that out of the way, I'll go ahead and admit I took a huge gamble on Payton. I'm hoping his hamstring heals and that his .300 OBP in 2001 was a fluke. Outside of 2001, he has a .330-.350 OBP. Again outside of 2001, he has seen a good increase in his SLG (due to COL?). Most importantly to me, he had 500 AB last season, which tells me that he may have found a way to curb the injuries, though his latest hamstring issue might suggest otherwise. Basically, I figure it's going to be boom or bust for Payton. He was the highest ranked OF'er left on my draft sheet and I didn't feel comfortable with any of the other hitters at this point in the draft. If he were healthy and hitting in COL again, I think Payton would have gone 2 rounds before this. Given that, I think I took him right where I should have. If he can get 80 RBI, 70 R, 5 SB, .450 SLG, .350 OBP, then I won't feel like this was a wasted pick.
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