On a bit of a downer, R.Lopez will be joining the starting rotation for the O's. I was really hoping that they would keep him out in the bullpen as I figured that was the best shot I had at him keeping a miniscule ERA and WHIP and helping me tremendously in those categories. Still, I can't help but to hope that he'll maintain a relatively high K/IP and help me out a bit there when he joins the rotation and maybe even pick up a W or two along the way.

R (11 to 13): +8
RBI (5 to 7): +18
SB (7.5 to 10): +3
OBP (3 to 5): +.006
SLG (2 to 4): +.018
W (12.5 to 15): +4
SV (16 to 14): -5
K (4 to 6): +3
ERA (4 to 6): -0.19
WHIP (4 to 6): -0.02

Given that I can't improve in Saves, that's 18 possible points that aren't that far out of reach, IMHO. Those 18 points could put me up to 9th spot, based on the current standings, just 3 points out of 8th. Now that's not exactly where I WANT to be, but it's sure better than 13th. But the key is that from what I can see, this league is still wide open. As we all saw with Guru last night, teams can rise and fall in the blink of an eye. You can lose, or gain, double digit points on any given night.

For fun, I compared first to last in each category. Here's the percentage difference, based on stats through last night...

R: 141%
RBI: 152%
SB: 445%
OBP: 112%
SLG: 127%
W: 186%
SV: 483%
K: 243%
ERA: 64%
WHIP: 79%

Realistically, I think anybody with a 4+ ERA and/or 1.30+ WHIP (which is at least half the league in both categories) would benefit from him. Since I fall into those specs, I'm perfectly fine with keeping him. My only real concern is his K/IP ratio, but since I'm already horrible in that category, it's not like it really matters.

I will NOT trade away Hudson. Any other STARTER is fair game. I'm not interested in trading away either of my closers at this point, for obvious reasons. Preferrably, I would like someone with a SLG above .450. And a non-OF position would be great.

Last Month Rankings:
Hinske: 487 / Radke: 88
Lowell: 63 / Eaton: 427

How is that not reasonable? Based on season stats, it's skewed, but not unreasonably, IMHO. Especially when you take a quick look at Lowell's career splits and see he's ready for a decline. April was his big month (as shown in his overall ranking). And, if you trust his splits at all, Hinske is due for a HUGE month in June.

Hinske, on the other hand, is severly underperforming. If he heats up in June, like he has in the past, he's going to blow right past Hernandez's rankings. He could easily skyrocket into the 200's. And if he does, his monthly ranking will be far better than 200 and likely better than 100.

As for Radke, he's ranked 125/124/88/185. You would be hard-pressed to find another player with rankings that consistent across the board. Radke is playing slightly over his head in ERA, but his WHIP is actually higher than expected. So, I figure those will even out as time goes on and Radke will still be a low 100's pitcher by the end of the year.

Trip, the only players you had on the block were part-time players (Olivo and Hall). Of course you want to get rid of them. And I'm sure you would like a full-time player in return, correct? Isn't that what we would all like? Unfortunately, it's dreaming. If Olivo gets claimed off of waivers, he'll likely be exchanged for a) and injured player, b) another part-time player, or c) a severly unperforming player. Nobody's going to drop a good starter for him; at least not that I can see. Olivo for a SP who is pitching his head off right now? No thanks. Not quite a "scrub," eh? And I'm sure a part-time player DOES look good in exchange for Madson. He's pretty much saved my pitching staff and I'm sure he could help yours, too! In fact, I'm sure he could help every team in the league, so why does it make sense to trade him for a part-time player?

KKB was asking for the best player on my team (YTD). I don't see much of an effort on his part.

He's the best player on your team YTD because he's a hot starter. For his career, Lowell has a .971 OPS in April. His next highest OPS is .866 in June. That's over 100 points difference. And he drops down to .779 in July and .709 in August for a loss of 262 points since the start of the year. His HR totals by month read 28, 21, 27, 13, 14, 19. RBI totals read 108, 68, 89, 64, 71, 62. Run totals? Same thing. 79, 61, 71, 58, 51, 48.

In other words, there's no way I'm "paying" for a 7th YTD ranking (before last night) when it's obvious Lowell is due for a decline. I'm not going to rent-a-player for a month and give up the farm for it. I didn't offer anything with regards to Lowell's 7th YTD ranking because I thought people in this league went by more than just a YTD ranking or stats. I offered a fair trade based on what Lowell's expected value will be and what the expected value of the other 3 players will be, taking into consideration YTD stats/ranks, Last Month stats/ranks, career splits, and other info.

Just look at his last month and Lowell has dropped down to a 66th ranking, which declined from last night and is a pretty decent decline from his YTD ranking. And I suspect, based on his career splits, that he'll continue to decline to the point where the trade I offered is more than reasonable because that decline was factored into the trade.

If you don't want to believe in Lowell's decline, that's fine, but don't call my offer unreasonable. There's plenty of reason behind it even if you don't want to acknowledge or agree with it. I could continue on for quite a while and fully explain all the angles I looked at when considering that trade. As I mentioned in the offer, it's about as close as we could get to an even trade and, IMHO, it's pretty darn close.

As for ERA, his 3-year average is a 4.32, which is much more indicative than his career mark of how he would perform this year. Yes, that's still 0.52 more than his current ERA, but not quite the same as 0.74.

I see no reason for him to greatly diverge from what RotoWire expects of him this year: 15-8, 3.80 ERA, 1.209 WHIP, 119 K's. He's pretty much right on that pace right now. And even if Radke DOES falter, he might fall into a high 100's ranking. MAYBE. In all likelihood, he'll stay in the low to mid 100's. But, as with all things, it remains to be seen.

The problem comes with Hitter for Pitcher. Then, looking at the rankings helps establish a relative value. It's still not the be-all and end-all answer, but it's certainly a starting point.

Still, over the last month, Abreu has 26 R, 22 RBI, 10 SB, .449 OBP, and .598 SLG. Compare that to:

Vlad: 27, 32 (9 last night), 2, .429, .699
Berkman: 18, 25, 1, .535, .822
Manny: 22, 24, 0, .471, .765

I actually got brave enough to put him back in my lineup for last night thinking PHI might bring him in for some relief work since he didn't pitch that much in his start. Also, I put him in because I benched Zach Day...

UGH! For all the things that have gone right for me over the last week (+19 points and +7 places), benching Day last night was a bad move. I second-guessed myself and it cost me 9 IP of 0.00 ERA and 0.67 WHIP. It also cost me a W and 4 K, but those can be made up. The ERA and WHIP part will be difficult, if not practically impossible, to make up.

Hinske in June: .371 OBP, .451 SLG, 13 R, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 4 SB