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Subject: RIBC 2005 - Draft Rationales (rounds 1-5)

Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Mon, Mar 07, 2005, 13:41

This thread will be for managers in the RotoGuru Invitational Baseball Challenge to provide the rationale for each pick.

Here are the ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.)

2. Try to keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information. In particular, please avoid mentioning the names of any players who are still undrafted at that time of the post.

Please post your comments at the time you make your pick. For example, you should post your comments for your round 1 pick when you make your round 3 selection. If you are not ready to post at that time, then create a "placeholder" so that the next person is able to go ahead in sequence. When your post is ready, simply post it in the draft discussion thread and a moderator can copy it over.

If your rationale is due and intervening placeholders have not been inserted, please insert them before posting your rationale.

3. Once the draft is over, each manager is also encouraged to provide a general draft recap, at which time you can discuss your overall strategy, mention any undisclosed factors, comment on what worked out well and what didn't, etc.

The general format should be:
1.01 Albert Pujols, OF, STL
Several sentences of rationale.

In addition, along with your first player rationale, please comment on your rationale for your selection of draft order.

darkside
Dude
ID: 3590317
Mon, Mar 07, 2005, 14:35

1.01 Albert Pujols, 1B, StL

For me it was between him and ARod. I liked ARod because of the addition of SB, which are hard to come by, but ended up going with Pujols because he just seems like the most consistent player in the game and he's still very young. His OBP is fantastic, his Slg. among the best in the league and he's hit at least .320, 120, 110 every year in the league. His foot issues are a concern, but overall it was too tempting to pass him up.

I chose to pick first in part for the novelty (I've never picked first in a draft) and part because, although you go a long time between picks, I get the first crack at more good players. Although 31 players are drafted between my first and second picks, my second pick is still quite good and, theoretically, my third pick may be the best available 3rd player taken. It probably doesn't matter since I picked 15th last year and did ok, but thought I'd like it. I was thinking about the 8th spot also.

Peter N.
ID: 18256512
Mon, Mar 07, 2005, 15:41

1.02 Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY

I chose the 2nd pick in the draft wanting to get either Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez. My preference was Pujols, but I have no complaints with AROD.

By his standards, last season was not that great of one for Alex. However, he still managed to slug over .500 and drive in and score over 100 runs. I think part of it was the adjustment going from Texas to New York. There was one bright spot last year for Alex and that was his SB total, which was the his highest since '98. AROD has had a year to adjust to New York and I expect him to explode in the middle of one of the most dangerous lineups in the league.

KrazyKoalaBears
Leader
ID: 517553018
Mon, Mar 07, 2005, 16:06

1.03 Alfonso Soriano, 2B, TEX

The rationale that everybody's been waiting for... will have to wait. If you didn't read why I took the 3rd spot in the other thread, it's basically because I like to be towards the ends so I can fill 2 needs at a time and not get too caught up in runs on a position. Last year, I was at the bottom of the draft, so I wanted to try the view from (near) the top. In the end, I think draft position has VERY little to do with success in this league.

Now for why I picked Soriano. First, I have to explain something that I will use in all/most future rationales. I have all my players ranked such that they end up with a percentage score. Very few end up above 100%. Anyhow, looking over my rankings, I had Soriano as the only 2B over 100%. He was definitely a top 10 pick and the drop-off at 2B was too great for me to pass him up. Part of this pick was me getting messed up at MI last year, but Soriano is also young and, IMHO, still has upside. We'll see.

rockafellerskank
ID: 180352016
Mon, Mar 07, 2005, 16:17

1.04 Vlad Guerrero (LAA - OF)

I was fortunate enough to draw the first overall choice in the draft lottery. To me, there were four top picks, then a (very) slight drop off. I made the decision not to make a decision... in that I'd take whomever was left between A-Rod/Pujols/Vlad/Beltan and get the earliest return pick in the 2nd round (2.13).

KKB threw me a curve ball (pun intended) with the Soriano pick. I had to choose between Betran or Vlad. I simply choose Vlad because I believe the LAA lineup affords him a better chance to reach projected numbers than the new home (pitcher's park) for Carlos. I'd love to get Beltran's SBs, but if Vlad can get 15-20, I'll be thrilled.

I'm hoping for .400 OBP /.600 SLG / 109 R / 115 RBI / 15 SBs

I did briefly consider Bonds at this spot for the very reason I'm sure Guru selected him -- OBP & SLG%'s

beastiemiked
ID: 4310501610
Mon, Mar 07, 2005, 17:39

1.05 Carlos Beltran, OF, NYM

When selecting my draft position, I had a choice between 5, 10, and 12-15th. There was about 8-9 guys in the top tier than a slight drop off. They all had been selected by the 10th pick except RJ so I'm pretty satisfied with picking 5th over 10th. In retrospect, though I would've taken RJ at 10th he's an injury risk and I'm glad I don't have to worry about him falling apart this year.

My top 4 consisted of Pujols, Arod, Beltran, and Bonds in no particular order. I figured Pujols, Arod, and Beltran would all be taken before my pick so if I was lucky I'd get Bonds. Beltran ended up slipping to me and now I had to make a choice. Ultimately, I selected Beltran because his numbers are more likely to improve or stay the same while Bonds numbers will most likely stay the same or digress. IMO, if Bonds puts up the numbers he did last year than he should've went #1.

Chris
Leader
ID: 07724916
Mon, Mar 07, 2005, 17:42

1.06 Johan Santana, SP, MIN
I was one of the first ones to choose my draft slot, and had 2 goals. The first was to take a draft slot somewhere close to the middle, so I'd be able to keep on top of the draft and not get lost on too many runs. My second goal was to get Johan Santana or Miguel Tejada, two guys I considered to be at the top of their respective positions by the greatest margin. In the end, I felt more comfortable that I'd get Santana with the 6th pick than I would trying to guess where Tejada might end up(anywhere from the 5th pick to the 2nd round wouldn't be a huge surprise).

The reason for wanting Santana? Aside from the fact that he won 20 games, posted a 2.61 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP and struck out 265 batters(that's the obvious), there was a need to find out how likely he is to repeat that type of performance.

Santana's 3 year splits as a starter show a 2.77 ERA, a 10.08 K/9 and a 2.59 BB/9. Those are numbers I'd be happy with, but considering he's 26, I think it's reasonable to expect him to be closer to last season(2.61 ERA, 10.46 K/9, 2.13 BB/9) than to his average, if not improve outright. In addition, he plays for a pretty good offensive team in a weak division, so asking him to repeat 20 wins shouldn't be out of the question, though I'd be satisfied with 18.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 07, 2005, 17:45

1.07 Barry Bonds, OF, SF

When I selected the #7 pick in the draft, I really didn’t have a clear plan. In just about every other RotoGuru Invitational League I’ve picked near the end, so I wanted to try something different. The 5th slot was still available, but it looked to me like there wasn’t a lot of difference between players who would likely be selected 5-7, so I opted to go to 7, especially after seeing that Peter N. parlayed the 7 spot into a championship last year.

I guessed that the top 7 hitters would be Pujols, ARod, Beltran, Vlad, Helton, Abreu, and Bonds. It was possible that a pitcher could be picked in the top 7, probably either Randy or Santana. I was leaning toward taking a hitter, and figured that any of those hitters would be acceptable.

As I did more draft preparation, Barry Bonds kept sorting to the top of the list. Not the top of the list of those remaining, but the absolute top. His gaudy on base average is probably the reason why, and while I don’t expect him to reach base at a ridiculous .600 clip again, most of the projections I’ve seen put him in the .530 range, which is still a light year ahead of anyone else. This should allow me to be less fussy about OBA as the draft goes forward. And, of course, none of Barry’s other stats are problems, although he isn’t going to steal any bases.

The pick isn’t without its risks. Barry is coming off of knee surgery, and he turns 41 this summer. There is also the steroid issue which is going to test his mental endurance all season long. And, assuming he goes off of whatever substance he may have been using, if he becomes less formidable at the plate, the free passes may not be as prevalent. But, at this stage, I think the upside makes the downside worthwhile.

Athletics Guy
ID: 24217410
Mon, Mar 07, 2005, 18:24

1.08 Bobby Abreu, OF, PHI

I'm really happy with this pick, since Abreu was the main player I was aiming for when I selected this draft spot. Barry Bonds was also considered here, but he comes into the season with too many question marks. I just couldn't risk my 1st pick on him. And I couldn't pass up the chance to take the best 5-tool player in the draft. That's right, I said the best. While Beltran is a younger player who continues to get better every year, I believe Abreu will put up the better numbers for this league format. Last season, he drew an impressive 127 walks which helped him achieve an OBP of .428. His .544 SLG wasn't too shabby either. Combine those percentages with the likely 110+ Runs, 100+ RBIs, 35+ steals, and he looks like a solid first rounder.

I chose the 8th pick in the draft because I knew it would guarantee myself one of the top hitters. After the top 10, things just get a bit cloudy. The 5th pick was also available at this time, but I felt I would get more value by moving down a bit. I've never liked the idea of selecting pitching in the 1st round, and that 5th pick might have forced me to do so.

jumpball
Leader
ID: 052347519
Mon, Mar 07, 2005, 20:16

1.09 Todd Helton, 1B, Col
When my turn came to pick a draft slot, 5 and 9 were the two highest slots available and the only ones I considered. As has been stated before, there were 4 top guys and then a small dropoff. I chose the 9th slot mainly because I knew I could be happy with whatever hitter happened to land there and I liked being higher in the 2nd round and in the middle for the entire draft.

In my mock drafts, I was expecting to land Soriano here, but KKB put the mock drafts to shame. The bonus was that Helton was available. As I wanted a hitter in the first round this year, the choice came down to Helton or Tejada. I almost took Tejada to solve most of the MI problems, but in the end, I couldn't ignore Helton's OBP and SLG numbers. The past two years, his OBP was 2nd only to Bonds and SLG was 5th last year and 4th the year before. Combine that with 110 runs scored and 100 RBI and Coors field and I've got my hitting anchor.

Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 052347519
Mon, Mar 07, 2005, 20:35

1.10 Manny Ramirez, OF, Bos

When it came time to select my draft position, I simply chose the highest spot still available, and it was 10th. I hadn't done much homework at that point, except list the top 15 or so players. (and at that point I thought I might have a choice between Helton, Abreu, Bonds, Manny)

I had kind of hoped that Barry would slip this far, but Guru, like me, is a sucker for the percentages and snagged him. Manny was the only player left in the top 10 as I had pre-ranked them. I wavered a bit between Schmidt and Manny, but decided to go with a hitter in the first round. And, as we all know, Manny is a professional hitter. Year in year out, you can pencil him in for 100+ runs, rbi, and +1.00 OPS.

youngroman
Leader
ID: 07724916
Mon, Mar 07, 2005, 21:53

1.11 Randy Johnson, SP, NYY
I picked the 11th spot because I wanted a lower pick in round 2 and the chance to pick RJ in round 1. After watching some other drafts I thought that he would be long gone when my pick is up, but possibly his scratched spring start led others to pass on him. My backup for #11 was Tejada (Bonds is #12, but only because of the stories of the last months, when you simply go with the stats he is #1 overall).

RJ is good for 220 IP, 250 SO, 20 W, an ERA of 3.00 or below and a WHIP of slightly above 1

Ref
ID: 5421410
Mon, Mar 07, 2005, 21:57

1.12 Miguel Tejada, SS, Bal

This pick doesn't need a whole lot of rationale. Not only was he the best player left on the board in my mind, but at a position I was horrible in last year. IMM, Tejada should have went higher but I'm glad he didn't.

Species
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 07, 2005, 22:00

1.13 Jason Schmidt, P, SF
In choosing draft position I got 2nd to last, so I just picked the highest pick available.

When formulating who would be available here, the 12 players that were picked in the first 12 picks of the draft all happened. I had Schmidt ranked 13th and was just fine with taking him here. Schmidt is over a year away from his old surgery, and while it's very cliche', he feels better than he has in years coming into spring training. There's little doubt he's in the very upper echelon, assuming health.

I'm expecting 18 wins, 220+ strikeouts, high 2.00 ERA and a whip in the 1.05-1.10 range.

Toral
ID: 22731114
Mon, Mar 07, 2005, 22:16

1.14 Mark Teixeira, 1B, Tex

In last pick for draft position, I had no choice. If I had had 1st pick of draft position, I would have chosen draft position #5, as there were 5 top producers any of whom I would be happy with. I would also have been happy with 8th draft position, as there were another 3 I would have been satisfied with as a first choice. As events transpired, I had the honour of picking 16th (no choice). That gave me pick #14 in odd-numbered rounds, which is OK in a sense: as the draft continues, it may allow me to adjust my picks to the roster needs of 2 other people after me, which can sometimes give a slight advantage; trying to guess the roster needs of 3 people is a bit too hard. OTOH, I have drafted near Matt S. in RQL last year, and he always steals my players, so maybe it's not so good.

Picking after #10, The smart thing to do would have been to do as holt did, and invite trades for my picks, as after #10 we get into an unintelligible morass of talents.

In round 1, with all proven studs gone, I look for a completely solid offensive producer with no question marks. No injury, age, or park doubts. 1B is a deep position, but Mark Teixiera is my guy. 24, should only improve, .380/.580 100R/110RBI are conservative estimates. Barring injury, the only doubt is how high the upside is this year.

Peter N.@TTU Library
ID: 5224721
Mon, Mar 07, 2005, 22:45

1.15 Miguel Cabrera, OF, FLA

I originally took the number 2 pick because I wanted to get Pujols or AROD who I both have as the top 2 picks(on a slightly higher tier then even Guerrero and Beltran). I wanted to get AROD or Pujols as a solid foundation to build my team around. Ok, mission accomplished there. However, when I looked at what was projected to me late 2nd and early 3rd, I didn't like it and when I saw holt's post, I decided to jump on the offer. I knew Cabrera would not make it to me at 2.15 and thought it was worth it to make the deal.

What Cabrera has done at such an early age is downright sick. Let's not forget that he is only 21(will be 22 by opening day). I do not think the Pujols comparisons are exaggerated. I expect his plate discipline will improve some as he continues to mature in the majors. Also, the addition of Delgado and already having Pierre setting the table are bonuses that will help his cause. As scary as it sounds, I expect improvements in Cabrera’s numbers for this year.
------------------------------------------------

Back to studyin!!

Matt S
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 00:52

1.16 Eric Gagne, RP, LA
I was happy to get the top player at such a shallow position with this pick. We all know what Gagne will produce if healthy, and I expect nothing less than that. In addition to my round 3 pick (Dotel), I should be at the top of the Saves category near year's end.

2.01 Derek Jeter, SS, NYY
I had to get a middle infielder with one of my first two picks. Minus his abysmal first month last year, he put up pretty average career stats, and I expect that from him again this year. I thought I may have drafted him a bit early, but considering where the next guys were taken, I got him right where I should have. I'll be happy with 25 steals and an OBP of .830

rockafellerskank
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 00:54

2.02 (from holt) Mark Prior, P, Cubs

I traded my 2.13 and 5.04 to holt for his 2.02 and 6.02. He posted the offer and I quickly took him up on it. At the time I made the trade, there were 4 SPs that I coveted. I’d get none of these with my 2.13 – and that was a correct assumption. To me, the downgrade in 2 later rounds was worth the upgrade I was getting. I was considering, in order of preference, Prior, Curt, Pedro, and Sheets with this pick.

Since Prior was there, I grabbed him. Everything I have read is predicting he is over the injury (take it easy Dusty!), so why not grab a guy that was just 1 year ago a top 5 overall pick? I had Prior & Schmidt tied at the 2nd best pitcher in my rankings (Johan #1)

My projections for Prior are 21W/ 250K / 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP – and hopefully 260.0 IPs. If he hits 85% of those #s, what more could I ask for?

Toral
ID: 22731114
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 01:14

2.03 Pedro Martinez, SP, NYM

Once I knew my draft position, the two players I coveted were Tejada and Pedro Martinez. Ref took Tejada; so be it. I had to hold myself back from picking Pedro in the 1st round, but I got him here.

Ordinarily, I don't pick pitchers in the first 2 rounds. However, in RQL last year, I went away from my strategy of waiting till the 3rd round and broke away from it in the 3rd round when I thought I saw a great value pick (Chipper Jones). That mistake haunted me all year, as I dragged myself through a year with a great hitting team with a pitching staff anchored by Kevin Millwood.

Picking where I did this year, I decided I would choose a pitching anchor if possible. I identified 8 pitchers I would accept as anchors. I was happy to get my second choice, and had to hold myself back from picking him in the first round (given my position).

Pedro Martinez is 33 years old, his K/IP ratios have been going down for 4 years, and some observers think he is losing his velocity.

He is also going to the National League (cuts .9 off the ERA and adds strikeouts), to a ghastly pitchers' park which adds strikeouts to anyone who pitches there, to a team where he will presumably (for one year) be happy, since he picked them. I don't think he's lost any stuff or velocity.

I expect only 15 or so wins, but an ERAS under 2.5, a WHIP of no more than 1.05, and an unGodly number of K's. And that's the conservative estimate. It would not surprise me if he put up, at 33, one of the monster ERA/K/WHIP seasons of all time.

So I picked him.

Species
ID: 5421410
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 01:40

2.04 Carl Crawford, OF, TAM
I wanted to do something a little different this year, and I definitely did it in taking Carl Crawford here. This pick carries some risk, in that Crawford is only 23 and the increases in OBP and SLG he enjoyed in 2004 were a fluke and he regresses.

Obviously I believe those things are not a fluke and I believe he will improve those ratio numbers. Crawford's strikeouts decreased, walks increased, SLG increased significantly, and OBP improved. All of these factors, combined with the fact that he enteres his fourth major league season all point, I HOPE, to some marginal improvement in those ratio numbers. He's also durable, having played in 151 and 152 games his first two full seasons (and 148 games between AAA and the majors the season before that).

The 60 steals and 100 runs scored are hopefully a given.

Ref
ID: 5421410
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 01:47

2.05 Ichiro Suzuki, OF, SEA

When there were a few picks before mine, I decided that I wanted Ichiro and if he was gone I'd take Crawford. On one hand I think Crawford is overrated. On the other hand, he can single-handedly grab a ton of steals for you and his draft stock has went way up. Well, Species nabbed him before me anyhow so there wasn't anymore thinking about his ability to help your team. However, I had reason to pause when I saw Rolen was still on the board. I was sure he'd go off before me.

Then when I compared the two, I sitll like Ichiro. Not only can he hit and get on base, but he has some wheels. He's not going to provide the power that Rolen can offer. There were some other things going through my mind as well, but I can't comment on those at this point. I knew Schil was available, but I had no intention of taking a Pitcher in the first two rounds unless a stud happened to slip this far down. While Schil is very studlike, the same can be said for Ichiro.

youngroman
ID: 298482214
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 03:03

2.06 Curt Schilling, SP, BOS
I wanted Pedro with this pick and ended up with Curt. Not a bad 2nd choice. after getting Randy in round 1 I hoped that I can get a 2nd top-tier pitcher with this pick and I got lucky that one was still available. as it turned out there was a rush on SP in the middle of round 2 and I was on the better end of that rush.

now I can focus more on other needs of my team. I hope I can get this years Melvin Mora, [undrafted] or [undrafted] in the later rounds to gain the ground I lost with 2 pitchers in the first 2 rounds. Last year I got them in addition to my Schmidt/Santana-combo and all 5 went nuts.

Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 052347519
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 08:05

2.07 Ben Sheets, P, Mil

I actually had Sheets rated quite high and was happy to get him with this pick. He put up some phenomenal numbers last year - 264 K's vs 32 walks in 226 innings. Of course, the main drawback with him is that he plays for the Brewers where wins have been hard to come by. If he pitches anything like he did last year, there's no way he only gets 12 wins again. I see him being amongst Schmidt, RJ, and Schilling as the main stud starting pitchers (Santana probably a step above and Prior right there provided he can stay healthy).

I also seriously considered taking Nomar with this pick. But I decided to get the ace of my staff and take a chance that Nomar (or Michael Young) would be available for my next pick. And, naturally, neither were...

jumpball
ID: 111322412
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 12:09

2.08 Scott Rolen, 3B, STL

I offered to trade up a couple spots from this position when I realized that the top of my queue had 3 1Bs and 2 other players. Since I already had Helton, the 1Bs were not an option.
When Ichiro went and the trade offers were rejected, I held my breath and didn't exhale until 2 pitchers were taken, leaving me with the player I wanted all along.
In Rolen's last 2 seasons, he has a .395 OBP and a .560 SLG. Combine that with the likelihood of 100 runs scroed and over 100 RBIs, he's a 4 category player that should continue to thrive in the lineup spot behind Pujols.

Athletics Guy
ID: 2233811
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 12:34

2.09 Roy Oswalt, P, HOU

The plan here was to take Schilling (REALLY wanted him) or Rolen with the 2nd pick. I tried to work out a few deals to move up and improve my chances. Unfortunately, no deals were made and both players were selected before my turn came up. Now I wonder how things would have turned out had I selected the 9th or 10th pick instead. Could I have gotten Abreu and Schilling? Guess I'll never know...

Since Schilling was gone, I decided to take the next best pitcher. Of all the starting pitchers available, Oswalt looked like the last one left with a realistic chance of having a 20-win season. While Beltran may be gone, Oswalt still has a great lineup that should help him win a lot of games. His ERA and strikeout numbers have always been impressive and he enters the season without any injury issues (unlike Schilling). I'm hoping for a season with 18-wins/3.30 ERA/200+ K's.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 12:39

2.10 Adam Dunn, 1B/OF, Cin
If Schilling or Sheets had dropped to me, I’d have probably gone there. But they didn’t, and I think I’ll defer on pitching for at least another round. My next choice for this was Rolen, but he was snatched 2 picks ago. If I’m looking for a hitter, my options are to take the best available, regardless of position, or to fill a position that has limited quality options. Dunn is the best hitter available on my ranking list. He’s eligible at 1B and OF, neither of which are scarce at this point, although the dual eligibility might come in handy at some point. The best middle infielders seem like too much of a stretch at this point. Ditto for catchers. 3B is a possibility, although there still seem to be a half dozen good options available. Of course, they might all disappear before I pick again.

I decided to stick with the best available. Dunn might not appear this high on many conventional cheat sheets, as his batting average isn’t a plus. However. his OBA is a benefit (career .382). In fact, his profile reminds me somewhat of Jim Thome – lots of Ks, lots of walks, lots of long balls. I have Thome ranked fractionally behind Dunn. But in doing some last minute research, I ran across a RotoWire blurb that says that Dunn will be asked to run more this year, and Dunn himself says he will steal 25 bases this year. That clinched it.

Chris
ID: 4708114
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 12:56

2.11 David Ortiz, 1B, Boston

I had tabbed Adam Dunn for this pick for all the reasons Guru mentioned above, but after seeing him go, I decided to take the next best hitter on my list. What moves Ortiz ahead of Delgado and Thome for me is the lineup he plays in. Even though I did well in the percentage categories, I was lacking in the counting stats last year, in part because I ignored the player's team and spot in the batting order. This time around, Ortiz should help me with the counting stats while (hopefully) posting a .950 OPS or better.

beastiemiked
ID: 4310501610
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 14:21

2.12 Carlos Delgado, 1b, Fla

My choice was essentially between Delgado, Thome, and Zambrano. I'm not big on picking starting pitching in the first 3 rounds so I eliminated Zambrano. I eventually decided on Delgado on a hunch. Picking a 3rd baseman had also crossed my mind but I figured there was a good shot that either Chavez or Beltre would fall to me next round.

holt
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 17:05

2.13 Jim Thome, 1B, Phi
I don't like to take a starting pitcher early in a draft. My view is that they are more prone to injury than hitters, and less predictable. Looking at the the qualifier drafts I could see that I could get one of the best sluggers still available toward the end of the second round, so I traded my 1.15 and 2.2 confident that I would end up with Thome, Ortiz, or at least Delgado. Barring injury, Thome will supply great OBP, SLUG, and RBI, and also decent R's.

KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 17:06

2.14 Rafael Furcal, SS, Atl
If I had posted my first round rationale after I made the pick, most people would have guessed something along these lines. Pretty much, this was a pick to solidify my MI with the thinking that I would be able to find better "bargains" at other positions. Like 2B, the dropoff at SS was too significant for me to ignore. Furcal is young, like Soriano, and still has upside, IMHO. His OPS took a minor dip last season, but if he can hover around .800, I can't ask for much more from a guy who looks to provide 15 HR, 60 RBI, and 100 RBI at the SS position.

holt
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 17:07

2.15 Marcus Giles, 2B, Atl
took a look at my draft chart and quickly pegged Giles as a prime target. In my opinion, considering that this league uses OBP and SLUG, you've got Soriano, then Giles, then a big drop-off at 2B. Giles is solid across the board in this league. I was pretty sure he would go in the early 3rd round, but my initial picks were 1.15, 2.2, then 3.15, so I traded my 1.15 and 3.15 to pete for his 2.15 and 3.2. so I got the player I wanted plus a 13 spot bump in the 3rd round.

I expect giles to contribute an OBP close to .400, a solid SLUG close to .500 or possibly more, and also good SB and R numbers.

So far, I've gotten 2 players I had planned to take (thome and giles), and I've lost 2 - FURCAL and MORA.

darkside
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 17:07

2.16 Carlos Zambrano, P, ChC
I wanted to make sure to get a top tier pitcher with one of my picks as I felt by the time it got back around to me there would be good pitchers, but not cream of the crop. Zambrano had a fantastic year last year that I hope he can duplicate and possibly even improve upon. He had a mizerly ERA of 2.75 which I hope he can come close to matching this year. His WHIP and BB's have dropped every year he's played while his SO's have increased and I think it's possible we'll see that trend continue (especially since Maddux is still there). It's a best case scenario, but I'm hoping for 18 wins, 190 SO, sub-3 ERA and a WHIP around 1.20.

3.01 Brad Lidge, RP, Hou
With 31 picks until I had another shot at a closer, I felt I had to grab someone now if I wanted a stud closer. Rivera was still available, but I fear the Yankee lineup will keep him from getting as many chances this year (well, that and I'm counting on the starting pitching to be about a billion times better so they'll keep the opponents score down) as last. So, I went with Lidge who posted absolutely gaudy numbers in his time as a closer. I'm don't remember exactly when they traded Dotel and put him in the role, but to end up with 29 saves in such a short period of time is astounding. That and his strikeout numbers were outstanding as it seems he strikes out about everyone he faces. So, I'm looking at a good source of saves and strikeouts with nice percentages--anything near the 1.90 ERA and 0.92 WHIP of last year will leave me giddy.

holt
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 17:08

3.02 Adrian Beltre, SS, Sea
Beltre was not a player I planned on getting. My plan was actually to pick up Mora with my 4.2 pick (YR took him at 4.6). I thought Beltre would be taken some time in the second round. His numbers last season were freakish, and he will only be 26 years old this season, so I see no reason to predict a huge drop-off. The move from LA to seattle is a question mark, but I think that even with a 10% drop-off he is still a good pick here. I'm expecting at least 90 R, 100 RBI, 35 HR, and an OPS of at least .900, but better numbers are definitely possible, as he proved last year.

I was debating Beltre or Lidge with this pick, but darkside took Lidge at 3.1 so I had no hesitation in taking Beltre.

KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 17:09

3.03 Jake Peavy, SP, SD
I'm high on Peavy and have been since before last year. In fact, through trade, he was on my team last year. He was a 10th round pick last year, but he proceeded to have a coming-out party. At 24, I actually look for him to improve a bit on last year's 15-6, 173 K, 2.27 ERA, and 1.196 WHIP. With RJ gone to the AL, he could turn into one of the elite pitchers in the NL. At least I hope.

rockafellerskank
ID: 4310501610
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 17:25

3.04 Nomar Garciaparra, SS, Chn
Normally, I would select the player I have rated “best on the board” At this point in the draft, I had Sheffield ranked #1. But, this is a positional pick. Elite SS’s are only so common and I think Nomar can be the 2nd best (or 5th best if he doesn’t round back into form). When I take position scarcity into account, he jumps up the list. I did consider Huff for this spot as well, partly based on his nice flexibility, but I thought there was a reasonable chance to get him later in the draft (he went at #4.07, oh well). Both of my other potential draftees play positions I can wait a while longer to address.

He has 1YR deal w/ Chicago and I am counting on Mr. Mia Hamm to have something to prove after last year’s series of unfortunate events – Nomar can still rake it!. I think a return to 2002-2003 season form is reasonable in the best case scenario. 90% of that level still is OK. Obviously, return from an injury is a concern, but a risk I am willing to take.

My projections for Nomar are .350 OBP/.525 SLG / 110R / 100 RBI and 8 SBs

beastiemiked
ID: 4310501610
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 17:30

3.05 Eric Chavez, 3b, Oak

This was a rather easy choice for me. I had considered Chavez last round but figured he or Beltre would make it back so I passed. Chavez had a huge jump in his walk total last year and if he would've been healthy last year he might've been just as valuable as Rolen. He's also only 27 so there is a possibility that he still has some room to improve.

Chris
ID: 4708114
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 17:42

3.06 Michael Young, SS, Texas

I was concerned about SS being the least deep position in the draft, so I wanted to make sure I got a good one. With Tejada, Jeter, Nomar and Furcal having already gone, I thought that the drop-off was significant enough that I should nab my SS now.

Young bats in a fantastic lineup. Last year he split time between the 1, 3 and 4 spots in the order(a little less than 2/3 was in the leadoff spot) and managed 690 AB's. Of course, what he did in those AB's is more important, and he didn't disappoint, scoring 114 runs(second to Rollins) and driving in 99 runs(second to Tejada, albeit a distant second). If anything, I think the Rangers lineup has improved this year, and batting leadoff, he should have even more opportunities to rack up the counting stats. I am not so concerned with Young batting leadoff because the Rangers 7-8-9 hitters will be among the best in the business and create their own share of opportunities.

Young will score more runs, Ortiz will drive in more RBI's, and I should be off to a good start in the offensive counting stat race.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 17:50

3.07 Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phi
I considered a closer here, but we haven’t really had much of a run there yet, and there are plenty of good ones available. Maybe next round.

I considered a starting pitcher, but didn’t consider any of the top candidates to be distinctive enough.

So I looked at some of the more difficult positions. I thought it was still premature to grab a catcher, although they will probably start to move before my next pick. We need 3 middle infielders, and two of the last three picks went that direction. I’ve had my eye on Rollins, and he’s not a stretch at this point, especially given the news that he is expected to run much more this year. So this pick lets me fill a tough position while working on a tough category.

Edgar Renteria is also available, and I rank him pretty much the same. I thought Rollins had more SB upside, which is why I went with him. And after those two, the dropoff at SS looks pretty steep. (Note: I ended up with Renteria as well, in round 5.)

Athletics Guy
ID: 298482214
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 19:29

3.08 Gary Sheffield, OF, NYY
After my Oswalt pick, I had hoped to fill my 1B spot with my 3rd pick. Since there was so much talent available there, I wasn't worried about who would be left for me. Then Dunn, Ortiz, Delgado and Thome were snatched up with the next 4 picks ahead of me. After that, I saw a dropoff at that position, so I had to focus on other needs.

I simply decided to take Sheffield who I thought was the best available bat. And judging from some of the reactions by fellow managers, they would have agreed that he was the best hitter out there. Coming off offseason shoulder surgery, Sheffield is far from a sure thing. But Sheffield never seems to be completely healthy, yet is able to put up MVP-type numbers. That's why I'm willing to take the chance on him. Hopefully he can get somewhat close to last year's numbers. I'd be very satisfied with that.

jumpball
ID: 298482214
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 19:29

3.09 Mariano Rivera, RP, NYY
I wanted either Michael Young, Rafael Furcal, or Gary Sheffield to slip to me for this pick, but this time I wasn't lucky. They were taken with the 3 picks just before mine.

I regrouped and looked elsewhere. I saw Edmonds and his numbers were interesting, but he didn't quite fit into my overall strategy. What I really wanted was a middle infielder, but they were all reaches at this stage of the draft. When I looked at closers, I knew that was going to be my pick, and it came down to Rivera or Rodriguez. K-Rod's strikeout numbers were awesome, but I decided to go with the safe pick. The almost guarantee of 50 saves from Mariano was a tad better than wondering if K-Rod can keep a closer mentality for an entire year.

[Note: I was very glad I made this pick when the closer run happened in the next round]

Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 298482214
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 19:31

3.10 Oliver Perez, SP, PIT
I hadn't planned on picking up another pitcher this round after anchoring my staff with Sheets with my last pick. But the hitters that I was trying to decide between (Blalock, Huff, and Hafner) were pretty evenly matched and I thought at least one would make it back to me.

I then debated between Hudson and Ollie Perez. I ended up selecting Perez because of his strikouts. He could very well lead the major in strikeouts. While Hudson would've been solid I guess I'm hoping for a breakout year a la Santana for Perez.

youngroman
ID: 298482214
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 19:31

3.11 Jim Edmonds, OF, STL

he was simply the best hitter available. Not much more to say. The power-trio of Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds will continue to score and I have a third of that output in my hands.
If he can get some more at bats he could even be more valuable than last year and produce some runs and RBIs more. If not I’ll take the 100/110 he got last year.

Ref
ID: 5421410
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 21:22

3.12 Victor Martinez, C, CLE

This may have been seen as a reach to some. Hell maybe it is. But last year I went with two quality catchers and tried to trade one all year with no takers. Then one of them started slumping so it really hurt me. So I thought if I could get a SS and C early on, I wouldn't have to worry about getting another one until late if at all.

With that in mind, with not a single catcher off the board, why would I take V-Mart first? Well that's a very good question and as the season progresses may end up being a reach or at least not the best pick at this point.

But my thinking is this. There are several other good catchers out there and some are rated higher on several sites. But I'm thinking VMart is only going to get better and improve on his stats from last year. He definitely has the most upside of the top catchers.

Last year his line was

AB R H HR RBI BB SB BA OBP SLG
520 77 147 23 108 60 0 0.2827 0.3587 0.4923

I expect him to at least get that again and like I said he is getting better. I don't think 30 homers and 120 RBIs are out of the question. Certainly a value pick IMM.

Species
Leader
ID: 07724916
Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 21:56

3.13 Francisco Rodriguez, RP, LAA

With MI's flying off the board faster than free beer at a fraternity party hosted by the Swedish Bikini Team, I switched gears here and took the #2 closer on my board. Los Angeles is the clear cut favorite in the AL West and should approach 95 wins, which should mean 45 save opportunities for K-Rod.

His ERA, WHIP and strikeouts are top notch and right in line behind Gagne and Lidge. I have little concern that he won't be able to adjust to the role and look for a huge year.

Toral
Leader
ID: 07724916
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 11:15

3.14 Juan Pierre, OF, FLA
I have never owned a big basestealer before, tending to stay around the middle of the category by cobbling together a number of 15+ thieves. I thought that might be harder to do in this league, so I decided to try taking a category-dominator type if only for variety.

Pierre is 27, and should not decline in bat ability, at a minimum. He's not old enough to lose his stealing ability suddenly, though the minor leg problems will be a constant worry. He has been durable. 90+ runs, and OBP around .375, and 50 bags are a reasonable expectation. The downside is the SLG; I expect it to improve just a bit, and think what he can give me will outweigh that.

Peter N.
Leader
ID: 07724916
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 11:18

3.15 Justin Morneau, 1B, MIN
Another piece to the puzzle in the trade I made with holt had to do with Morneau. I knew I could get Morneau at the latter end of the 3rd so giving up the early 3rd in order to land Cabrera was worth it.

Some, especially those that know me particularly well ;-) may be surprised that I took Morneau over Blalock. Two factors went into my decision. One was that I already had a 3rd Basemen, but more importantly, I just think Morneau has more upside this year. I can easily see him belting 40+ HRs. Extrapolate Morneau’s stats from last year over a full season and you get .270/41/133. I don’t think that’s an unreasonable expectation for him this year now that he has a full-time job and I'm expecting improvement over last year. Morneau has immense upside and I could not pass that up.

Matt S
Leader
ID: 07724916
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 11:19

3.16 Octavio Dotel, RP, OAK
I wanted to take another top end closer in the first 6 rounds. I like his K/IP ratios. There's not much else to say about him. I chose him over F.Cordero for no other reason than I have had Octavio on teams in the past, and have been happy with what he has done for me. I expect to finish in the top 3 in the Saves category, barring injury.

Matt S
Leader
ID: 07724916
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 11:19

4.01 Ivan Rodriguez, C, DET
Here's where things really got screwed up for me. I was planning on taking a shortstop at this spot. I thought I would be able to get Nomar, then I was hoping for Rollins, then Furcal, then Young. Marcus Giles was gone, so there were no middle infielders worth taking. I did not forsee the assault on SSs happening so soon. Early in my preparations I had Rollins or Furcal as my round 5 pick. I really missed the boat on that. So I took the best player available, IMO, at the shallowest position. I can only expect career averages from Pudge, and if I get that, I will be happy. With his decrease in weight, I would welcome a few more SBs. I don't think his SLG will suffer much, even if he does hit fewer HRs.

holt
Leader
ID: 07724916
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 11:20

4.02 Joe Nathan, RP, MIN
My next pick after this one was 18 picks away (5.4). That's far enough away to completely miss out on a closer run. Sure enough, NINE more closers were gone by the time my 5.4 pick came around. I had to take a closer with this pick, because trading for a closer is a horrible option. It's like re-enacting a scene from deliverance or pulp fiction.

Of the closers that were remaining, Nathan was really the only one I felt comfortable taking this early. I've had him on fantasy teams the past two seasons so I'm familiar with him. He's a low injury risk and the Twins offer plenty of save ops. Last year he put up 44 saves, 11.1 K/9, 1.62 ERA, and a 0.98 WHIP, so I feel great about having him on my roster. I'm confident that he'll put up similar #'s this season.

Toral
Leader
ID: 07724916
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 11:21

4.03 Hank Blalock, 3B, TEX
The corner infield partner of my first baseman Teixeira, Blalock is 24, should be improving, should put up a .350+ OBP and .500+ slugging even without improvement.

The things holding Blalock back from being a bigger star are identifiable and I have a reasonable hope he can deal with them. He improved his previous problem hitting against lefties last year, actually having a higher batting average against them than righties. He has slumped each of the last two years after the break. It's not unusual for a young player to have fatigue/stamina problems. That issue can get better. Hit poorly on the road last year, but I do not think there's any way he's only a Texas hitter. I would rather take a player who has identifiable specific weaknesses of a type that can be handled than a guy just looks like he has become as good as he is going to be.

Species
Leader
ID: 07724916
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 11:29

4.04 Kerry Wood, SP, CHC

In poker when you sort of lose your cool and do irrational things after a bad loss on a hand, they call it going on "tilt". With the incredible run of SS' in round 3 I was ticked and decided to try to 'punish' those who hadn't picked any starters by gobbling up some prime pitching. K-Rod was one, and Wood was another.

At this moment in the draft I didn't see any big difference makers on offense. There were so many solid OF's remaining, and I sincerely felt that of the cornerman I was going to consider here (i.e. Huff, Mora, Hafner, Aramis, D. Lee, Chipper) that one of them would make it back to me as a SP or RP run HAD to begin soon. Well the closer run happened as I had hoped, but unfortunately of the couple I hoped could make it back (i.e. D. Lee, Chipper) got snapped up from me just a few picks in front of me in Round 5.

Anyway, I seriously considered Tim Hudson here, but his declining K rate and pension for muscular injury had me take Wood's higher upside. While Wood has health risk too, he also has high upside and I wanted solid K's in taking this pick. Here's hoping for 16-17 wins, 230 k's, ERA of 3.50 and a whip of 1.20 (the whip is probably the most 'hopeful' number).

Ref
ID: 5421410
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 12:31

4.05 Tim Hudson, SP, ATL

This was my first pitcher taken. To get a studlike player in Hudson in the 4th round to anchor my squad was a huge break. In every single projection site I've seen, he is in the 30s overall. His injury is healed and now he goes from the AL to the pitcher-friendly NL. He should get plenty of run support from his team and he is the ace of a very good staff and has the resources of an outstanding pitching coach.

Again, I feel I got another value pick. Perhaps V-Mart was a little reach, but taking Hudson at that earlier pick wouldn't have been and VMart may have been gone by now anyhow, so either way I got both players I wanted.

youngroman
Leader
ID: 052347519
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 13:27

4.06 Melvin Mora, 3B, Bal
Best hitter available, already considered him with 3.11, was surprised he slipped back to my pick. He emerged last year despite missing a few weeks due to injuries. If he can produce last years stats when healthy I would be satisfied. I talk about something like 110 runs, 100 RBIs, 12 SB, .950 OPS.

Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 052347519
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 13:30

4.07 Aubrey Huff, 1B/3B/OF, TB

At this point I was going for the best hitter available (so what if he has a girl's name - actually I guess it's Aubrey not Audrey, but that may be worse - I'm sure he still caught some flak growing up...). I'd already taken two top starting pitchers, and even if a closer run started, I should still be able to grab a top reliever (yeah, right). But, that was my thinking at the time. I basically narrowed it down to two corner infielders that I expect to have similar numbers. These were the top two guys still remaining from my original pre-rankings. What made me choose Huff over Travis Hafner was his position flexibility and Hafner's injury history. I also was holding out a slim hope that Hafner would make it back around to me. I expect around .950 OPS for Huff and over 100 runs and Rbi; as the TB hitters continue to develop it should give Huff plenty of opportunities to drive in runs.

jumpball
Sustainer
ID: 33050298
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 13:33

4.08 Josh Beckett, SP, FLA

This was a tough pick.
I had originally hoped to land Wood or Hudson here, but they went a couple of picks before me. I wanted an MI, but wasn't willing to reach too far to get one.
I had an offer for Rolen here, so I looked at 3Bs. Aramis was tempting, but not enough to consumate the trade.
Finally I settled in and tried to find a pitcher. I strongly considered Foulke and Wagner here, but with Mariano already in the fold, I went for the starter instead. If Beckett stays healthy, he should get 15-17 wins with 200 Ks and better than average percentages.

[In hindsight, nailing down a second top teir closer with Foulke or Wagner might have been a better pick, since the closer run started with the next pick after mine.]

Athletics Guy
ID: 43250912
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 13:53

4.09 Keith Foulke, RP, BOS

The closer run had begun, and there was no way I would pass up on taking an elite closer like Foulke (or any closer for that matter). He was the #4 ranked closer on my list, so I was happy to get him here. Foulke may not be the strikeout machine that Lidge, Gagne and F. Rodriguez are, but he certainly gets the job done. It wouldn't suprise me to see him get over 45 saves this season. After all, his team looks very capable of winning 100 games. Last season, the Red Sox won nearly as many games as the Yankees did, yet Mariano Rivera had 18 more save opportunties than Foulke. With a bit of luck, he could wind up as the AL's saves leader if the Red Sox have fewer blowout wins.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 14:05

4.10 Billy Wagner, RP, Phi
I’d been expecting to take a closer in this round, and as the time got nearer, the two on my radar were Foulke and Wagner. When Foulke was picked ahead of me, the choice was easy. As long as he stays healthy, I should get what I paid for.

Hmmm… Two Phillies in the last 2 picks, and I almost went with Thome over Dunn in round 2. I could have easily taken Abreu in the first round as well. Now that would have been weird!

Chris
ID: 4708114
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 16:10

4.11 Armando Benitez, RP, SF
The closer run had quite obviously started with Foulke and Wagner going with the two previous picks, so I nabbed the guy I wanted all along. Benitez isn't the pitcher he used to be, but SF should be a gold mine for save ops this year when you consider the following:

- SF had the 4th most save ops in the majors last year(this counts opportunities before the 9th inning, but the principle is that they play close games)

- SF plays in a pitcher's park which dampens scoring, causing closer games

- SF seems to have improved their team this year with a few (albeit old) offseason acquisitions

- SF plays 18 games each against the Dodgers and Padres, who are both low scoring teams, both offensively and defensively.

Add it all up, and I just felt comfortable that of the closers remaining, Benitez would get the most save opportunities of somebody that could reasonably considered to pitch well.

beastiemiked
ID: 4310501610
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 17:06

4.12 Francisco Cordero, RP, TEX

Not much to say. It was during the closer run and he was the best available closer. Hopefully he can match his numbers from last year.

rockafellerskank
ID: 180352016
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 17:30

4.13 Danny Kolb RP, ATL

I had left a queue for this pick, but I was still around as the picks before me fell fast. They were mostly closers. I wanted to wait a round and was hping to get Cordero or Foulk. In fact, my original queue had Travis Hafner at the top (which is ironic because I had traded my next pick to holt who draft him!).

Anyway, the run on closers changed my plans. Although Kolb doesn't give the Ks/IP that I'd like from my #1 RP, I think I have a decent start with Prior in that category. Kolb was lights out for a while last year--- moving to ATL can only help as I believe they know how and when to use a closer effectively. I can see Kolb doing 42-45 which isn't bad for a closer at the end of such a huge run.

KrazyKoalaBears
Leader
ID: 517553018
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 17:53

4.14 Roger Clemens, P, HOU
The Closer Run was officially underway and I figured, at most, 2 more might be taken off the board before my Round 5 pick (it was actually 3) and I didn't see much difference amongst the remaining "pickable" closers at that point. So, Roger Clemens was left as the top remaining pitcher on my cheat sheet at 112.6% and I couldn't resist. Yeah, he's going to start the season at 42 years old, but I think a pitcher like Clemens can pull it off. He, arguably, had his best season last year since 1998, so who am I to say that he can't pitch anymore? Rotowire predicts a VERY modest 165 IP, 13 wins, 3.55 ERA, 1.152 WHIP, and 96 K (I want to know who came up with that low K total, since it's just over half what his career K/9 is). Personally, I'm envisioning 17 W, 3.71 ERA, 1.221 WHIP, and 203 K in 210 IP. If he gets that, I'll be more than happy.

Peter N.
ID: 18256512
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 18:01

4.15 Jason Isringhausen, RP, STL

The closer run blazed a burning trail in the 4th round and I went ahead and added gasoline to the fire. I debated on Hoffman and Izzy and decided to go with the younger Izzy. Both are injury risks. Izzy is on a slightly better team too even though they should both be good for 40 saves. Izzy also has a nice Ks/IP and will help my ERA and WHIP. I consider him a top 10 closer so the pick was not a reach to me.

darkside
Dude
ID: 3590317
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 18:28

4.16 Aramis Ramirez, 3B, ChC

Ramirez liked his stint with team darkside of the moon so much last year that he signed on again. A lot of 3B were being picked and I suppose I had something of a lemming mentality, but it's hard not to when a position is starting to thin out. He had a career year last year and, unless losing a couple of key teammates puts significantly more focus on him, I don't see why that won't happen again given he's only 26. I expect at least a .550 slg with about 100 runs and rbi's and will be happy with a .360-.370 obp.

5.01 Trevor Hoffman, RP, Sdg

The previous rationales discuss the closer run. If there were more top tier guys available I may have taken a third, but am happy to have two solid closers, especially since I spent at least half of my fantasy time last year scouring the wire for someone to get me saves. An ERA of 2.50, a WHIP of 1.00, 40 saves and 70 strikeouts are reasonable expectations, provided he stays healthy (crossing fingers).

Peter N.
ID: 18256512
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 18:44

5.02 Guillermo Mota, RP, FLA

I went closer again with this pick because I do not like being forced to fish for saves later in the draft. I also don't like have closers that will damage your in ERA and WHIP. Mota was the last available closer that I would've considered at this pick.

I was hoping to grab Hoffman, but have no problems with Mota. He is unproven as a closer, but I expect him to step-in and dominate. He should be a good source of saves, has a decent Ks/IP, and should boost my ERA and WHIP. Not much else I can ask for.

KrazyKoalaBears
Leader
ID: 517553018
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 19:01

5.03 Shingo Takatsu, RP, CWS
Well, I couldn't sit by and let ALL the decent closers go by me! Takatsu stormed onto the MLB scene with 6 W, 19 SV, a 2.31 ERA, 0.979 WHIP, and 50 K in 62.3 IP. He'll be the Sox' closer and his $2.5M salary should keep him in the role if he hits any bumps along the way. All in all, this should be a solid pick, especially in the middle of the Closer Run.

holt
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 21:55

5.04 Travis Hafner, 1B, Cle
To me Hafner was the best hitter available at this point and I still needed someone to man the CI spot. I considered Renteria briefly but hell, Hafner had a .993 OPS and 109 RBI last year. Sign me up for some of that please.

beastiemiked
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 21:55

5.05 Rich Harden, SP, Oakland
High risk/reward pick here. He possesses the high k/ip ratio that signals a big year(think Oliver Perez and Jake Peavy last year). I might've reached a little bit but he was not going to make it back to me. I'm hoping for 12-14 wins 200k's 3.5 ERA 1.25 WHIP.

Chris
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 21:56

5.06 David Wright, 3B, NYM
While this pick may have seemed early to some, I was pretty confident that he wouldn't be there when I picked again, and wanted to make sure I didn't lose him. David has a number of things going for him.

Last year, before being called up, Wright hit .342 with 55 walks and 60 k's. After being called up, he OPS'd 857 with 14 walks and 40 k's. I figure that 269 AB's for a 21 year old should give him all the seasoning he needs to have a breakout season. I look for his BB's and K's to move closer to balancing out this season has he continues to demonstrate the power that he showcased last season. Also, he appears to be a legitimate 20 stolen base threat.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 21:57

5.07 Edgar Renteria, SS, Bos
It’s tempting to reach for a second closer, but I think there are more pressing needs to address, in spite of the recent run. I thought Renteria would be long gone by now, but perhaps the recent closer frenzy crowded him out. It seems to me that if I can fill my MI slot now without a stretch, I should jump.

Apparently he’ll hit 2nd (behind Damon) in the Boston lineup, with Manny and Ortiz behind him. My hopes are for 100 R, 90 RBI, 20 steals, and .350/.450

Athletics Guy
ID: 53227921
Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 22:29

5.08 Derrek Lee, 1B, CHC

Looking over the list of 1B's left, I felt I had to make this selection. In my opinion, there was a significant dropoff after Lee. I certainly did not want to risk having a poor performer in such a strong position. It was tough to decide between Hafner or Lee, but Holt made that easier for me by taking the former.

Lee's numbers over the past few years have been consistent, averaging 90+ runs and 90+ rbis over the past 3yrs. That's about what I'm expecting from him, along with a .350 OBP and .500 SLG. The 10 or so steals he'll give me will be quite helpful too.

jumpball
Leader
ID: 052347519
Thu, Mar 10, 2005, 00:07

5.09 Chipper Jones, 3b, Atl
I really wanted Renteria to slip, but Guru didn't let that happen. I didn't feel a need to get a 2nd closer this early, even though they were going faster than bad coffee through my metabolism.

The choice came down to getting a 2B or an established hitter who will solidly support 4 categories. I decided to take Chipper and see if one of the 3 2Bs that I wanted would make it back around the turn. [Note: none of them did]

My goals for Chipper are 145 games played with .400/.500/100/100 -- numbers that he has averaged every year that he's played a full season. Stay healthy please!!

Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 052347519
Thu, Mar 10, 2005, 00:24

5.10 B.J. Ryan, RP, Bal

Whether all the solid closers had already been taken before it got back to me will be determined at a later date. After Kolb was taken (the 5th closer in a row, incidentally), I made a list of 5 closers that I would take. Only two of those made it back to me - Ryan and Looper. In fact, Ryan was at bottom of my list. But comparing their numbers, I had to go with Ryan. He's right up at the top for all pitchers in K/Inning at 1.4. Assuming he keeps the closer job the entire season, he won't get as much work as he did last year - but he'll still help my already solid strikeout numbers.

I briefly debated punting saves, but couldn't bring myself to do it - the problem with doing this is that it doesn't leave you much margin for error (or injuries) in the other categories.

youngroman
Leader
ID: 07724916
Thu, Mar 10, 2005, 11:33

5.11 Javy Lopez, C, BAL
It was time to pick a catcher. I don’t think that Lopez or Posada would be still there in the 6th round. Javy was the catcher with the most games in 2004. This stat comes in handy in a league with a limit of 162 GP.

Javy Lopez 150
[undrafted] 147
{undrafted] 143
Victor Martinez 141

If he can repeat that, and playing DH on “off-days” helps, I will likely need only a second catcher for 10 games. This need could be accomplished by waivers. So my C is locked and I don’t need to look at this position again. At least not until the ASB.

Ref
Leader
ID: 07724916
Thu, Mar 10, 2005, 11:58

5.12 Corey Patterson, OF, CHC
In my mind's eye, I saw me taking a closer in this round. But the horrendous run on closers had me rethinking things. I'm not your average fantasy drafter. I don't print out all sorts of materials and rank players and mark them off and so prepared that I can pick in two seconds flat. Sure it gets hard at times and I do consult a couple online cheat sheets to try and avoid missing anyone, but I generally draft out of feel and what my team needs.

Well, after seeing the run on closers and how far some of you reached in my mind, I had to print some things out and cross out names to find out how many players were overlooked. Let me tell you, it was MASSIVE. I've never before seen so many top-notch players slide like this before. This took me a little time in trying to figure out if I could not only snag a top player, but grab one in a position of need.

I narrowed it down to Patterson, Kent and Matsui. I quickly threw out Matsui. Now it was Patterson and Kent. The question was, if I took one, would the other one get back to me? Only two 2B had been taken at that point. Odds are that it wouldn't, yet there hadn't been a run on them yet. I felt once it started, then everyone would jump on board again like they did with closers so if I pass now, it may be hard to get one. But looking at my newly printed off list, after Kent it would be awhile before they went anyhow. So now it was all about the battle between Patterson and Kent.

I had one OF already so I really wanted a 2B. Advantage Kent. But I kept thinking about Patterson. A year and a half removed from ACL surgery (takes at least 12 months to fully recover) and his 5 cat capabilites. There is no way you should be able to get a player of his caliber at this position. He Ks a lot for a leadoff hitter and his obp, while getting better, is still not where it could be, but everything else is there. Sure I'd rather he be batting lower in the order to make use of that big bat with some more RBIs, but this guy is a steal and there is no way he'll make it back to me. All I can hope for is that somehow, someone has other pressing needs more than a 2B in Kent. Unfortunately, he didn't make it back to me.

Species
Leader
ID: 07724916
Thu, Mar 10, 2005, 12:02

5.13 Hideki Matsui, OF, NYY

With the runs on closers and MI's, someone was bound to slip, and in this case it was Matsui. Matsui is a legit 100/100 runs/RBI guy who posts solid OBP and SLG. I can't complain about a 4-category anchor at this point in the draft.

Still on tilt I had even sent a queue with Looper on top instead of Matsui, but a cooler head prevailed.

Toral
ID: 22731114
Thu, Mar 10, 2005, 12:21

5.14 Jeff Kent, 2B, LA

Yes, I was surprised by the closer run. For no good reason, I thought there was enough other talent to delay any serious run for another round.

They always advise you not to panic at the bad end of the run. I mulled my best response for over an hour, and this was during a time when there were 2 people in the same situation to pick ahead of me.

There were 3 approaches possible with my next 2 picks:

1. Pick 2 closers

This put me back in the save game. There were just enough closers who seem entrenched enough that I wouldn't mind owning them, albeit this would be early to pick them. That's the problem: it gives me mediocre closers compared to those in the run, and it rewards those in the late part of the run with free shots at good talent.

2. Pick 0 closers.

Look for late-emerging closers later in the draft, take a risk on a few disreputables, plan to work the WW like nobody's business. Just too much risk that I end up punting the category, which I don't believe you can win while doing.

3. Pick 1 closer.

The moderate approach. There were a few closers available I thought to be reasonable alternatives here, so I aimed to look for one of the way back up.

Jeff Kenthas been a reliable .350/.525 type producer. Drawbacks: he's 37 and going to Dodger Stadium. Despite these drawbacks, I consider him a safer option than a few guys left who have put up similar OPS's, and as such worth owning here. .340/.480/90/95 or up will satisfy me.

The 2 nest guys and my queue, Matsui and Drew, ended up being picked just before and after him.

[first rationale edited to correct typos]

holt
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 10, 2005, 21:16

5.15 J.D. Drew, OF, LA
JD was on my pre-draft target list. I traded my 6th round pick and there's no way he would have been available with my 7.15 pick, so it was now or never.

I did last minute comparisons with Giles, Wilkerson, Lee, and a couple others. I think Drew has more potential and I like that he can help me in all offensive categories.

I looked at MI's and closers just to make sure I wasn't missing something, but I think anyone from those positions would have been a reach at this point. Carlos Guillen looked interesting but I don't know what the odds are that he will repeat last year's numbers.

I also did a last-minute news search for any articles regarding Drew's health. here's an excerpt from one of them from march 1st:

"It was literally killing me," he said. "I'm talking about driving to the ballpark with my left foot on the pedals, my right foot on the dashboard because my knee hurt so bad."
Drew said the severity of his injury wasn't clear on MRI examinations, but when he finally had surgery, his right patella tendon was 4-to-5 times thicker than it should have been because it was diseased, and resembled crumbling crabmeat.
"Once I got out of surgery, it felt great - right away," he said. "I think last year I kind of proved that when I did get healthy and could run, I could play. The big thing was some of the injuries I faced last year were because I felt so good again. I ran faster than my hamstring was capable.
"I'm shooting for 150 games ...This will be the first time in my life I'll be playing in a place where there's not a lot of humidity. There were days in Atlanta I wouldn't even set foot on the field until game time."

I know you've gotta take articles like this with a grain of salt, but it was the verification I was looking for. Drew has a great chance to put up #'s of 100/100, .550/.400, and 10-20 SB's. That would make him a great bargain for a late 5th rd pick.

Matt S
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 10, 2005, 21:17

5.16 Brad Wilkerson, 1B/OF, WAS
With my hopes of getting 3 MIs in the first 6 rounds dashed, I opted to go with a CI. I like Wilkerson's flexibility, in that he allows me to take an OF or a 1B when I have to later in the draft. I'm not sure what to expect in regards to SBs with him hitting 5th in the lineup. I'd be happy with 10, as long as his power numbers are a little better than last year.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 10, 2005, 21:18

Rounds 6-10

Forum: basePage 17558Subject: RIBC 2005 - Draft Rationales (rounds 1-5)

Forum: base
Page 17558
Subject: RIBC 2005 - Draft Rationales (rounds 1-5)