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Subject: RIBC 2007: Draft Rationales (rounds 1-5)

Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 16:27

This thread will be for managers in the RotoGuru Invitational Baseball Challenge to provide the rationale for each pick.

Here are the ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.)

2. Try to keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information. In particular, please avoid mentioning the names of any players who are still undrafted at that time of the post.

Please post your ( 2 round lagged) comments at the time you make your pick. For example, you should post your comments for your round 1 pick when you make your round 3 selection. If you are not ready to post at that time, then create a "placeholder" so that the next person is able to go ahead in sequence. When your post is ready, simply post it in the draft discussion thread and a moderator can copy it over.

If possible, please draft your rationale at the time your are making that pick. Not only does that allow you to remember your thoughts "in the moment", but it also makes it simple to copy and paste it when it is due, avoiding unnecessary delays and/or placeholders.

If your rationale is due and intervening placeholders have not been inserted, please insert them before posting your rationale. Simply post something like "2.10 placeholder for Guru". This makes it easy for me (or any moderator) to splice the eventual rationale in the proper place.

3. If you are providing rationales after a placeholder has been inserted, then post it in the draft discussion thread, and someone will copy it over.

4. Once the draft is over, each manager is also encouraged to provide a general draft recap, at which time you can discuss your overall strategy, mention any undisclosed factors, comment on what worked out well and what didn't, etc.

The general format should be:
1.01 Albert Pujols, OF, STL
Several sentences of rationale.

In addition, along with your first player rationale, please comment on your rationale for your selection of draft order.

Philsphan
Donor
ID: 301442416
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 19:42

First, my pick rationale.

I have always favored (and so far been successful with) picking on the end of the draft. Usually I have been 15th or 16th. I like the idea of effectively getting 2 players at once. So going 1st or 2nd was a new opportunity for me. I have never picked this close to the front. And when Dave R. took the 5th position, I was all too happy to take #1.

1.01 Albert Pujols, IB, STL
This one was actually not a slam dunk decision. After hearing reports of A-Rod supposedly coming to camp with a new attitude (?) and some extra motivation after last year, and after watching my man Ryan Howard rise to super-stardom, I considered those 2 as viable options. But it is hard to ignore the fact that Pujols is at or near the top in 4 of the 5 categories in this format. My projections for him this year: 120+ R, 130+ RBI, .430/.665. And I’ll even take 7 SB.

So if the other two (especially Howard) have a monster year, great. Win or lose the RIBC, I’ll be watching my Phillies play in October. But somehow I don’t think I will be disappointed with Prince Albert.

StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 19:58

Draft Selection #6

I feel there are a lot of top quality players to choose from in the first 7 or 8 picks to build a team around and having the 6th pick at choosing my draft slot I felt I would be happy to go somewhere between 5-7. That all went out the window as they were taken before it got to me. I thought about taking 9 to get a better player with my second pick and to be in a position to address runs, but with the 2nd spot open I figured I would rather take a player of my own choosing rather than having it dictated to me. At the time I chose second I had a player in mind, but that was definitely subject to change, especially if for some reason Pujols didn’t go #1 overall as expected. I did entertain the possibility of taking the 4th slot figuring that Reyes and Santana might go 2 and 3 leaving me A-Rod at 4, but I still hadn’t ruled out taking Reyes, Howard, or Soriano and wanted to leave my options open. I also like being close to the turn and the difference between #2 and #4 on the way back up shouldn’t be much of a factor.

1.02 Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY

As expected Pujols was the first pick. I know drafting A-Rod #2 overall is not what the ‘experts’ would recommend, but I like to know what I am getting with my first pick. Of course the ‘experts’ aren’t making recommendations based on obp and slg % either where A-Rod should excel. If ‘all’ I get is last year’s stats, then I am still happy. I really expect a bit better than last year and figure to get excellent numbers in every hitting category to form the core of my team. Certainly I thought about Reyes here and all those steals, but one pulled hamstring and suddenly he isn’t quite the same guy. Also looked at Soriano but a ‘bad’ year from A-Rod gets me about the same stats and I expect Soriano to regress a bit while A-Rod should rebound from last year. My other possibilities were to take Howard and all those HRs and high slg % (but then I don’t get any SBs) or to take Santana, but with the long wait until my next pick I decided I would rather go with hitting. I don’t necessarily think that A-Rod is going to be the second best player in this format, but I do think he will be consistent and poses less risk than some of the other options I could have gone with. I agree with the statement that a league isn’t won based on a first round draft pick, but I do think it can be a serious detriment if your first round pick is a bust.

Athletics Guy
ID: 281162612
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 20:25

1.03 Johan Santana, SP, MIN

In taking the #3 pick of the draft, I was hoping to select Alex Rodriguez. I was feeling pretty good about my chances of getting him too, since he made it past the #2 pick in all the AA/AAA leagues. Unfortunately, StLCards ruined it for me. Hopefully, he doesn't do that to me too often.

I didn't really have to think too hard about this pick once A-Rod was gone. While I'm not a huge fan of selecting pitching early, Johan Santana is the exception. He's proven himself to be the league's best pitcher, and he might even get better. Over the past 3 seasons, his K/9, WHIP and ERA would rival even the best closers of the game. To have him put up these types of numbers over 230+ IP makes him so valuable.

Projected Stats: 20 W, 2.90 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 235 K, 0 SV (Johan is great, but he can't can't do everything!)

Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 22:48

Draft Position #4

I didn't want to pick 11-16 because I didn't want to draft an OF, or UT player. As of this writing, I am just hoping that Santana or Reyes don't go #2 or #3. If they don't make it to me, I am still debating whether I want Howard, Utley, ARod, or Miguel Cabrera. Right now I am leaning towards Utley. He may be better slotted as the 6th or 7th pick, but I didn't have the option to grab that draft position. I figured Crawford would have still been around with #11 and I wouldn't be able to resist. Since I struggled to trade him for over 2/3's of the season last year, I didn't want to experience that again.

1.04 Jose Reyes, SS, NYM

I had figured Johan was more likely to make it to me than Reyes, but would have been happy with either. I only graded 17 players in my A class, and Reyes was the sole player in the A tier at SS, joining Pujols, Santana, Utley and Mauer as the only players in the top tier at a position. I tried to talk myself into taking Utley with this pick, but wasn't able to pull the trigger. The deciding factor ended up being age. Only 24, Reyes has a lot more room for improvement over my projections over Utley. Here's to 120 R, 80 RBI, 60 SB, and an OPS over 0.800.

Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 07:32

for Dave R
Draft Selection # 5
It was tough to get my choice of where to pick and pass on the first selection and Pujols. Unlike Philsphan, I have never liked picking at the ends. I would have dropped even lower but really wanted either Howard or Reyes.

1.05 Ryan Howard, 1B, Phi
I was guessing that Pujols, Arod and Johan would be the top three choices, and was hoping Howard would fall to 5th. If not I would have been thrilled with Reyes.

Howard had a monster year last year. Hard to imagine improving on 138 RBI's, 99 runs and an OPS of 1.079 and I'm not expecting him to. No reason to think that comparable numbers aren't possible however. Maybe I will get lucky and he will steal a base or two.

Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 07:35

Miguel Cabrera 1.06

I felt like there were two tiers of players who interested me inthe first round. Albert Pujols was the only player in the first tier and I felt like the second went 8 deep. I took the 6th stop to give myself the flexibility to pick a player I really liked in the second tier. Once the draft went live I regretted that decision and wish I dropped back further, into the 8-10 area. My favorite 1st/2nd round combo actually came out of the 10th slot, David Wright and Grady Sizemore. Nice job Holt!

In the first round I was looking for a young player who will post 950+ OPS and 200+ Runs/RBI’s. Miguel Cabrera fit the description perfectly. I feel the worst case scenario with Miguel is a repeat of 2006, I feel he has the upside to put up a Pujols like season, he’s only 24!

I also considered David Wright, David Ortiz and Alfonso Soriano. Big Papi was ranked #2 overall in my model, but I’m leery about the Manny situation. His numbers seemed to drop in August and September when Manny was injured. I’m sure the situation there will play out just fine, but I didn’t want to risk it with the #6 overall pick. Soriano’s OBP% is too low for me to consider him seriously.

That left me to consider the two 24 year old third baseman. My initial instincts were partial to Wright because he was my first round pick last year and he’ll contribute an extra 10 stolen bases. The more I looked at their stats, the more concerned I became about Wright’s finish. He slugged only .469 after the ASB. I doubt there is any long lasting trend there, but it was enough to flip me in the direction of Cabrera.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 08:37

for Bags
Draft pick #7
If I couldn't be first I wanted to be in the 6-8 range. I had one specific player in mind for my draft position and not much of an idea for a plan "B".

1.07 Chase Utley, 2B, PHI
I wanted Utley from the begining because of the position scarcity at 2B. I did give some thought to Soriano who fell to me at #7. Passing on the more traditional first-round targets means I'll have to plan smartly for the remainder the draft.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 08:38

for Peter N.
1.08 Alfonso Soriano, OF, ChC

I chose the 8th spot hoping to not get left out of any runs and be in good position to analyze where the draft is and going each time my turn came up. In selecting 8th, I was originally targeting Miguel Cabrera, but never dreamed Soriano would make it to me. There are a few reasons to feel concerned about Soriano’s value. He no longer is eligible at 2nd base and now has a nice contract so the motivation to perform may not be there. However, I just could not resist another possible 40-40 season. He should also be an excellent source of runs and RBIs with an OBP that while isn’t great, shouldn’t hurt me. Simply put, he’s a dynamic threat. I’m expecting big things from Sori in Chitown and love the way my draft has kicked off.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 08:39

for blue hen
9th Pick
There are seven players in the first tier: Pujols, A-Rod, Howard, Cabrera, Santana, Utley, and Ortiz. My goal was to get one of the seven. Given the choice of 4th or 9th, I figured I might get lucky at 9th. At 4th, I'd be pretty screwed in the second round. I almost made a trade with Polack for the 6th pick (to take Cabrera), but it didn't work out.

1.09 David Ortiz, 1B, Bos
No complaints. Ortiz was one of the magnificent seven. He leaves me with some areas for improvement (pitching, steals), but I'm quite happy with the pick. Obviously, there was a big dropoff after this. The good news is that I got my big bopper and no matter how much I screw up the rest of the draft, Big Papi will be working for me.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 08:40

for Holt
Draft pick #10
#4 was available, but to me it wasn't worth the lower 2nd rd pick. I like #16 because for the convenience factor, but I chose middle of the pack so I wouldn't completely miss out on any position runs.

1.10 David Wright, 3b, NYM

Just thought he was the obvious pick. I see he also went #10 on all the other ribc drafts. .380/.530 with 20 steals is pretty good. Can't say I wasn't tempted by Crawford, but I'm not one to chase after steals like that. For me his %'s just aren't good enough for a 1st rounder, while Wright is solid across the board.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 08:41

for Tosh
1.11 Carl Crawford, OF, TAM

Before we picked our draft slots, I wanted the first pick (Pujols), or the tenth pick. Pujols is obviously the best, but you certainly cannot go wrong with any of the top 10 picks. They are all fantasy giants whom to build a team around, and I didn't want to have to decide which flavor of candy to buy. I figured I could let my player drop to me. But I drew the 11th slot and had to end up choosing between Crawford and Beltran.

Every draft guide and resource out there lists Crawford as a top-10 player. Why did he slip to 11th here? I suspect it is because of a below average OBP. Various projections I use have him at .335, .344, and .356. Was this reason enough to let him fall to 11th? I say no.

Crawford is still only 25, and has blazing speed. He'll get at least 50 SBs, and possibly many more (has gone 55, 59, 46, and 58 his last 4 seasons). He's improved HRs and batting average each year. Getting over 600 AB's of a .300 average provides a solid base. Very importantly, he's learning to control the strike zone better through an increased BB rate (took a BB 6% of his ABs in 2006 and 4% in 2005), thus improving his OBP, and generating more SB opportunities. These upward trends, and his speed, make Crawford a very-worthy #11 pick.

There is some injury concern about his wrists, as he experienced a bit of tendonitis last season. He will be wearing protective wrist sleeves, and is currently undergoing daily hot wax treatments. (I've never heard of this before now). Nobody expects his wrists to hinder his season.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 08:43

1.12 Travis Hafner, Util, Cle

I had my choice of picking in slots 12-15, and chose 12 for two reasons: (1) just in case someone surprisingly slipped this far, I wanted to nab him, and (2) it was the closest available to the middle, protecting against a run on any position with too many intervening picks to react.

With 3 picks remaining, my short list came down to Hafner, Manny, and Berkman. Of the three, I prefer Hafner’s stats the best, but his lack of a position (other than Utility) is a drawback. Berkman has the best positional flex, and Manny is,… well,… Manny.

This is the fourth RIBC draft, and I must confess that I’ve generally botched my first round pick every year. In the first three years, I chose Halladay (2004-injured much of the year), [undrafted] (2005-injured most of the year), and Jason Bay (2006-didn’t perform up to expectations). So I decided that I really wanted to go with a safe pick this year, and any of Hafner, Berkman, or Manny would seem to fit that bill. I a way, I hoped that my choice would be made for me. No such luck. Attempts to trade down a pick or two also failed.

In every set of projections that I’ve looked at, Hafner ranks the best of the three, while Manny and Berkman are in a virtual deadlock. So the real issue is the value of restricting Hafner to the Utility slot. There is some talk that he may play 1B about once per week this year, and if so, I’d think he would earn 1B eligibility at some point. I guess it’s worth a shot. At 29, he’s also got a slight age advantage over the other two (Berkman 31, Manny 34).

Put me down for these gaudy numbers: 105-125-.425-.640. Hopefully, my first round curse is about to end. If not, as a Tribe fan, taking Hafner now puts me in double jeopardy!

Building 7
ID: 571192610
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 10:22

1.13 Lance Berkman,OF,1B, HOU

I could choose between pick 13 and 15. 15th was tempting. I thought I could get 2 sluggers. But I didn't want to be so close to the end. I ended up with 2 sluggers anyways.

Others considered....Vlade, Beltran, And Manny. He can play 1b and OF. He moves too slow to get injured. His games are on TV, others are not. Now has Lee. Good % guy. Vlade in bad lineup, Beltran in year 2 of 3 year Yahoo fantasy baseball suspension, Manny slight injury risk.

KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 31252921
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 10:45

1.14 Bobby Abreu, OF, NYY
My choices of draft pick were limited to 13, 14, and 15. I took 14 because I didn't want to be as far from the end as 13 and I avoided 15 because I didn't want to be as close to the end as that. 14 just seemed a reasonable compromise for me.

As for Abreu, what's not to like? He's a 5-category player who's Cal Ripken-esque in the number of games he plays each year. His OPS dip in 2003 and 2005 would cause concern for the superstitious amongst us, but I'll look to his second-half play with the Yankees when he turned in a .926 OPS. I think 110 R/RBI, 30 SB, and a .950 OPS are well within reach for him. I was seriously considering Mark Teixeira with this pick because he was the only non-OFer for a little bit in my list, but decided to pass because of other options available not too far down my list. I also considered Chris Carpenter with this pick, but figured I could get Oswalt, Zambrano, or Peavy on the turn (sure didn't expect them to last as long as they did!) if I didn't get Carpenter (which I did), all of which I'd be just as happy with.

KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 31252921
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 10:51

for JTSERB
1.15 Carlos Beltran OF, NYM
I was ecstatic getting Beltran here with the 15th pick. His numbers were stellar last year and it seems he has adjusted to playing in NY. I always struggle with SB's so to get a guy with 40 sb potential, (while I don't think he will steal 40) makes the pick even more of steal IMHO.

KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 31252921
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 10:51

for filthy
16th pick
I missed the boat, and got auto-picked at 16. I'm pretty happy with it, I prefer being close to the end for convenience, my drafts are usually a crapshoot anyways.

1.16 Roy Halladay, SP, Tor I'm biased because he is my fave, but I think I can confidently say he would at least be a nominee for best pitcher in the league. I had set a queue for these picks, and was drooling over the chance of Beltran slipping to me but I'm still pleased with the outcome. Halladay is taking the Jays to the playoffs this year, watch out AL East.

2.01 Justin Morneau, 1B, Min Goin' with a Team Canada theme this year I suppose. Can't complain over having the reigning MVP as my batting anchor. I am intrigued by the possibility of what he can do if he puts it together for a whole season.

KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 31252921
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 10:52

for JTSERB
2.02 Vladimir Guerrero OF, ANA
I don't know why, but it seems that everyone is down on Guerrero this year. Could be the whole knee thing but all indications are fine on that. The guy had 382 OBP, 116 RBI's and also stole 15 bases. While I dont feel this pick was a steal I do think it was a solid pick.

KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 31252921
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 10:54

2.03 Chris Carpenter, SP, STL
I was a bit surprised to see Carpenter available with the 19th pick in THIS draft. He's certainly a top 3 fantasy pitcher in my book and I'm quite happy to have him on my team. Recent history suggests 30+ starts, 220+ IP, and 18 wins, 190 K, sub-3 ERA, and 1.0-- WHIP are well within reason. I was planning on considering a number of players with this selection, but with Carpenter available, I only looked at him and did a quick peek at Oswalt.

Building 7
ID: 571192610
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 11:24

2.04 Manny Ramirez, OF, BOST

I was going to trade this pick, until I saw Manny was available. I almost picked him in the 1st round, so I was very happy to pick him here. I'm hoping Boston stays in the race all year so Manny "doesn't hurt his knee" I think they will, with the upgrades.

I don't usually take two outfielders with my first two picks, so it will be interesting in filling out my roster from here on. I predict that Manny will be Manny.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 11:41

2.05 Derek Jeter, SS, NYY

I had been hoping that either Jeter or Atkins would fall to this spot. As it turns out, both did. Manny Ramirez almost did too – and I’d have probably taken him if he had lasted one more pick. And once again, I kind of wished only one of my targets was still available, simplifying the choice. No once again, no dice.

Continuing my philosophy of taking “safe” choices, I’m taking Jeter, even though he is coming off a career year that might have inflated his projections. This also satisfies the objective of taking a middle infielder when it’s not a reach. Last year, he was a top-10 hitter in this format, with 118-97-34-.483-.413. Even at his 3-year averages of 117-81-23-.385-464, he’s a solid choice at the 21st pick at any position. At age 32, he shouldn’t be experiencing a material decline yet.

Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 13:06

2.06 – Mark Teixeira, 1B, TEX

When I took Crawford in the first round, I knew that I wanted a Corner Infield bopper with OBP … but as I looked ahead, I was very concerned that the top players on my list would be OFs, and I didn’t want to start the draft with 2 OFers. But when Halladay and Morneau got drafted at 1.16 and 2.01, everyone I wanted moved up 2 slots on my draft sheet.

I was able to set a 3-man queue before I went to bed that night of Teixeira, Jeter, and Manny. I flip-flopped for several hours between Manny and Grady Sizemore as the third choice. I really wanted Teixeira or Jeter … and Manny was the fall-back plan. The picks before me went Manny (2.04), and then Jeter (2.05), so Teixeira fell into my lap. Seeing that Sizemore was drafted at 2.07 makes me think that people are peeking at my draft sheets.

Teixeira started the first half slowly last season, but really cranked it up a notch (or three) the second half (24 HR, .998 OPS). His draft position has dropped a bit this year, primarily due to the first half numbers. Teixeira is the complete package: not only a safe power investment, but one with additional upside as he continues to mature (26 years old). He’s a viable MVP-candidate this season.

holt
ID: 590581711
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 17:02

2.07 Grady Sizemore, OF, CLE

Was pretty surprised to see him available this late. I consider him a tier 1 OF. Like Wright, he'll put up strong numbers in every category. +.900 OPS, +20 steals. This decision was super easy once I saw he was available. just did a quick google news check and that's all she wrote.

I will say this though. I don't like not having Chris Carpenter on my team. I kinda regret not taking the 15th or 16th pick, or possibly trading up in the 2nd round. I don't like taking SP's early, but it's good to have an anchor, and Carpenter is on pretty much every staff I ever have. ah well.

Peter N.
ID: 2211473117
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 17:52

For Blue Hen:
2.08 Jason Bay, OF, PIT

Before the draft started, I was picturing Derek Jeter with my second round pick. He's been more patient the last couple years, and the Yankee lineup is still devastating.

After that, I was looking at Grady Sizemore. The best thing about Grady is the doubles. He's much better in the RIBC format than the standard one.

Both those guys gone, Bay is pretty high on my list - hits for power, OBP of .400, even adds a couple steals. The guys below him (I had Matt Holliday, Vernon Wells, Carlos Lee) are all a step down. I really feel like I hit the dropoff two rounds in a row.

With Bay and Ortiz, I had a great core with a very high OBP and great power. At this point, I was freed up to explore other options, like a closer.

Peter N.
ID: 2211473117
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 17:55

2.09 Miguel Tejada, SS, BAL

I thought Teixeira might make it back to me, but no luck there. My next choice was Bay and he was picked right before me. That left me with Tejada which is certainly a nice consolation. I am getting good value here with this pick and that’s all I can ask for. Miggy gives me power at a position that rarely has it. With his new attitude and a wanting to steal a few more bases, that makes him even more attractive. I’m fully expecting a SLG% over .500 and 100+ RBIs. Add in maybe 10 steals and a nice OBP and I’ll take it. Miggy is a monster and don’t see that changing this year.

Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 21:01

for Bags:
2.10 Derrek Lee, 1B, CHC

After picking Utley in the 1st I had planned on taking a top SS next. I wanted to have strong players going up the middle. When my pick came up I saw a few players with more value than a SS. Three players stuck out at me Lee, Matt Holliday, and Mauer. I like Lee to bounce back with a strong year after his injury last year.

Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 21:03

2.11 Joe Mauer, C, Min

I debated this pick for a long time, almost 2 hours. I considered three players, Mauer, Holliday and Dunn. I was leaning towards Holliday until I realized that I would probably have the chance to draft Dunn in the 3rd round. I didn’t want to take two outfielders in the 2nd and 3rd round.

Joe Mauer is also entering his age 24 season. Mauer posted a .936 OPS last season and I feel like there is a good chance he reaches .950 this season. The power is there, he just needs to turn some doubles into home-runs. Normally I don’t like to take catchers early because they only play 140 games. It seems like Minnesota likes to DH Mauer in his off days, last year his OPS was 1.202 in 60 AB’s as DH. I expect him to get even more AB’s at DH this season as the knee injury move further away in the rear view mirror.

Dave R
Leader
ID: 13961611
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 22:19

2.12 Jimmy Rollins, SS, PHI
I really wanted to get a top MI ( preferably a SS ) with this pick, and hoped that Jeter would slip to me, being a Yankee fan. But I knew he wouldn't. That left me wishing for Rollins or Tejada.

Tejada has the projected edge in RBI's and OPS but Rollins should score more and hopefully steal around 40 bases. I'm very happy to start the draft with 2 Phillies and look forward to Rollins trotting around the bases, being knocked in by a Howard HR.

Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 22:20

2.13 Matt Holliday, OF, COL

The last of the "A" bats in my draft list, I am relying on Holliday to form the anchor for my SLG stats. I expect another top 10 SLG performance from Holliday this year. I was hoping for one of the non-running "B" tier of SS's to make it to me here, but saw Rollins and Tejada disappear in the 4 picks before me.

Athletics Guy
ID: 281162612
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 23:18

2.14 Garrett Atkins, 3B, COL

After taking Santana in the 1st round, I knew I was going to take a hitter with this pick. I finally narrowed it down to 3 players: Garrett Atkins, Aramis Ramirez and Hanley Ramirez. With a lot of speed still available, I thought I could wait on Hanley. If he didn't make it back to me in the next round, I could still get someone similar. Atkins and Aramis, on the other hand, stood out from the rest as the best CI's left. Aramis would have been the safer pick here, since he's been consistently putting up solid numbers over the past 3 seasons. It eventually came down to Atkins and his .409 OBP though. That was a mark that Aramis had never achieved in his career. If Atkins can repeat what he did in 2006, I'll be very happy with this pick. If not, I may see some of you guys in AAA next year.

StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 00:13

2.15 Jake Peavy, SP, SD

I’ve been pondering this pick since before the draft even started. I am trying to be realistic in who I might get as so many still have to pick and there is little chance the type of player I want will slip this far. Lots of ways I could go. Might take another multi-tool hitter similar to A-Rod. I was really hoping Jeter would slip to me, but that was obviously a dream. Originally I had my eye set on a top of the rotation pitcher like Carpenter, he went earlier than I expected, but I figured he wouldn’t make it to me anyway, but I did think Halladay would be there. Could Tejada still be around? No. I’m surprised Atkins hasn’t gone yet, so maybe I could take another 3B? no. I know that I’m taking a closer in round 3, so if I don’t take a pitcher what does that mean? That I get the 20th pitcher overall to anchor my staff?

As it got to within 8 players of my turn I started seriously looking at the board. If either Jason Bay or Grady Sizemore were still available I would have taken one of them. Other options in Rollins, Derek Lee, Atkins, and Holliday all went leaving Carlos Lee, Hanley Ramirez, A. Jones, etc. Very tempted to take Hanley here, but I think it is too early for a single cat guy as I think it will be hard for FL to score runs this year. OF is deeper so I have to pass on Lee too. Time to look at pitchers I think. The more I look at it I really need to take a SP. That is what I thought all along when choosing the 2nd spot. Had I wanted a 2nd hitter I should have chosen the 9th draft spot.

Looking at pitcher options I focused on K’s, ERA, and Whip. Zambrano and Oswalt were options and both probably get more wins than Peavy, but I’m not going to root for either one of them! Zambrano is a bit wild and Oswalt is lower on K’s and neither are in good parks. I took Peavy for his 200+ K’s and pitching in a pitchers park. There is a big risk with any pitcher and Peavy maybe more so than others, but if he does rebound like he did in the second half last year then he will be worth it. Right after I drafted him I saw he got rocked in Spring Training again and now has an 11+ ERA and now a ‘dead arm’, just great!

Philsphan
Donor
ID: 301442416
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 00:41

2.16 Aramis Ramirez, 3B, CHN
I was really hoping for either Atkins or Rollins in this spot, but I am perfectly happy to have Ramirez compliment Pujols on my infield. My projections for Ramirez: 90+ R, 110+ RBI, .360/.560. I have 2 studs for SLG, and that is a good way to start. I know he got off to a miserable start last year, but with a healthy Lee and now Soriano in the lineup, maybe he'll see flatter pitches when he steps to the late. That can only help, right?

3.01 Carlos Zambrano, SP, CNH
I almost took a closer here to fend off the run that is sure to happen before I see my next pick (sure enough it happened). But I didn’t want to take a chance of having all the top-tier starting pitchers fall off the board by the time it came back to me either.

Almost every year I see Zambrano available and opt for someone else. And at the end of every year I wonder why I didn't choose him. Now that I have him he'll go down to injury and I'll be sunk. But when Peavy went off the board just before my turn, that cemented things for me. My feeling here is that with Z in a contract year, I think I have someone who is motivated. Maybe that will mitigate his temper somewhat and help him focus more. And he has a much better team behind him now. I expect 18 wins and 200+ K’s with this pick, and solid ERA/WHIP to anchor my staff.

StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 00:52

3.02 Joe Nathan, RP, MN

OK, let’s all let out the collective groan, ugh, someone’s already taking a closer at the start of round 3! And repeat after me, “I will not take a closer this early, I will not take a closer this early”. Ahh, but some of you will and some more will take pitchers. That should help the type of player I’m targeting in round 4 and 5 to make it back to me.

This year I see about 8 closers that are more likely to help you in other stats as well as getting saves. Drafting from the 2nd position can be tough when it comes to closers since it is likely that by the end of the 4th round the top tier closers will all be gone, so it is either take the first one at round 3 or hope to grab one of the few remaining solid closers left in round 4 or 5. I now have a top 3B, top closer, and a top 5 pitcher in my first 3 picks. Nathan should get about 40 saves, 90Ks, 5W, 2.10ERA, and .900Whip. Had I waited, I would expect to get no better than the 10th closer. I really wanted to stay out of an area where gains in saves are somewhat offset by an increase in era and whip. With my next two picks I will focus on speed and power.

Athletics Guy
Leader
ID: 13961611
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 02:16

3.03 Hanley Ramirez, SS, FLA

I was thinking about taking K-Rod here, but I just couldn't pass up on Hanley Ramirez. In just his 1st year in the majors, Hanley has already established himself as one of the league's premier basestealers. Among shortstops, he is second only to Jose Reyes in that category. I expect an OPS around .800 and 110+ R to go with his 45-50 SB. Unless he experiences a sophomore slump, he should have no problem reaching those numbers. Hopefully, passing on a top-tier closer won't come back to haunt me.

Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 02:18

3.04 Rafael Furcal, SS, LAD

I felt like Furcal was a bit of a reach with this pick, and was all set to grab B.J. Ryan here but I have an aversion to drafting closers this early. I tried to get over it, but just couldn't type it out. What put me over the edge on Furcal was looking at my projections for Furcal and Ichiro who was a slot below him on my spreadsheet. Even if you throw out positional scarcity, Furcal still ranks ahead of Ichiro - that was the deciding factor here. One problem, I am already projecting over 100 SBs through three rounds.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 06:55

for Dave R
3.05 B.J. Ryan, RP, Tor

I was prepared to start a run on closers with this pick and would have chosen Nathan, but he went 3 picks earlier. Looking at other drafts, as many as 9 closers went from this point and when the draft would get back to me. I didn't want to be caught on the end.

I "settled" for Ryan after Nathan was selected. Ryan averages better than a strikeout an inning, and if he gets the opportunities should record 40 + saves

Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 09:17

3.06 Adam Dunn

I took Dunn in the second round last season so getting him in the third round this year is a steal, right? Actually, as bad as last season was for Dunn, he still ranked #55 in my model. His OBP is about 130 points higher than his BA, which is especially nice in this format. Cincinnati brought in a new hitting coach, Brook Jacoby, who worked with Dunn in the minors. It’s been speculated that he’ll help Dunn decrease his K’s, which could push his BA back in the .270’s, and OBP% in the .400’s. Obviously there is some risk here, but I feel like it’s worth taking.

I didn’t seriously consider anyone else with this pick. Roy Oswalt, Prince Fielder and Carlos Lee were the next three ranked guys in my analysis.

Bags
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 13:01

3.07 - Ichiro Suzuki
I knew that if I took Lee that I would miss out on most of the SS positions. I really thought that Furcal & Young would be there for my 3rd round pick. Young was the only one that made it back. Young is my favorite Ranger and it killed me to pass on him. I wanted a player with speed and that wouldn’t kill me on slg%. Ichiro on my rankings was someone who had fallen and was now too good to pass up.

Peter N.
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 13:02

3.08 Victor Martinez, C, CLE

I didn’t expect him to make it back to me. I was all set to take KRod, but with Vnart sitting right there, I couldn’t pass him up. He is also now available at 1st base, but I'll play him at catcher for most of the season barring something unforseen. My first goal of getting a shortstop and a backstop with 2 of my first 3 picks has now been accomplished. VMart is clearly one of the best options at catcher and there is no way he would’ve made it back to me. Martinez should be an excellent source at OBP and also contribute nicely in Runs and RBIs. I also expect his SLG% to dip over .500 this year which is nice power source from the catcher slot.

blue hen
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 13:03

3.9 Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez

This pick was going to be a closer. That's the reason I didn't take #4, so I could take a closer in the third round and not get screwed by having to wait until late in the fourth. That may have happened anyway, but I'll take about that in the Wells rationale.

The two best closers in baseball are Francisco Rodriguez and B.J. Ryan. Joe Nathan and Billy Wagner are also pretty great, but Nathan isn't quite as nasty and Wagner is getting old. My goal in this round was to take K-Rod, with Ryan as my first backup choice.

The closer run started a few picks before mine, and Nathan and Ryan went. I took K-Rod, happily, and now I don't have to worry about closers for a while. Wagner, Rivera, Putz, Hoffman, Street, and Lidge all went in the next 17 picks, and I'd put K-Rod up against any of them.

Three picks, and I've got an outfielder, a first baseman, and a closer. Still a lot of holes to fill but it's a good core.

Holt
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 13:04

3.10 Carlos Lee, OF, Hou
Lee will be playing half his games in Houston this season (ever gotten a look at that left-field porch?). Main drawback for Lee is that his OBP is .350ish. but, he's an aggressive hitter, makes good contact, drives in a lot of runs. last season he was good for triple digit R's/RBI, .900 OPS, and 19 steals. No, I still don't have a pitcher, but I've got 3 solid hitters who produce in all 5 categories.

other players I considered here were Oswalt, Webb, or a closer. I do like having an anchor on the pitching staff, but pitchers are pitchers(injury-prone!). I'm glad I held off. my gamble of waiting on a closer paid off as I still got Hoffman and Saito in the next 2 rds.

Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 13:07

3.11 ~ Roy Oswalt, SP, HOU

When I do my season-end retrospective, this may be the pick that doomed my season. And it won’t be Roy’s fault … it’s the crazy drafting of one particular manager. When making my decision, I narrowed the field to Oswalt, Michael Young, or a closer. I had my eye on 4 different closers, and really need a middle infielder. As JJ Putz proved last year … closers are a fickle group and taking one early is certainly a risk. In the end … I decided to take Oswalt, and then take a reach and pick up Carlos Guillen in round 4 (I see him as a late 4th to early 5th round pick) who is comparable to Young.

Imagine my distress in round 4 when Guru takes Carlos Guillen just before me. He already has Jeter for cripes sake. And to make matters worse, all 4 closers I wanted were taken as well. I’ll rant more in my next rationale.

Like many managers, I tend to avoid starting pitchers in the early rounds. But having Oswalt sitting there nearing the end of round 3 was too much temptation. His K/9 rate has dropped slightly the last 2 seasons (now just below 7), but his command (K/BB) has improved (now over 4). An improved offense should mean more wins over last year, with excellence in ERA & WHIP. A solid opening-day ace.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 14:53

3.12 Billy Wagner, RP, NYM

I’d been tentatively planning on taking a top closer here. But let’s first look at the hitting options.

I think the best hitter available is Andruw Jones. He hasn’t lasted until pick 3.12 in any other RIBC draft, and I’m sure he won’t make it back to 4.05. OF isn’t a difficult position to fill, but I don’t have any yet, so that’s not a yellow flag.

I have one MI already, but I always want to get another if it’s not a reach. The top candidates now are Michael Young, Chone Figgins, Brian Roberts, and Carlos Guillen. If I take Andruw with this pick, then I’ll want a closer in round 4, and I’ll probably end up deferring on another MI until much later. It’s certainly tempting to lock down a second one now.

With Mauer and VMart off the board, catcher is not a consideration.

Let’s look at the closer choices. For my top guy, I’m looking for some who safely has the job, and who has the likelihood of materially helping my ERA, WHIP, and Ks – in addition to saves, of course. I see at least four guys who should fit that bill. With 8 intervening picks before my 4th rounder, what are the odds that all 4 would disappear? It’s certainly possible, as those teams will figure to be closed out of a top closer if they don’t get one now.

The top two available closer options are Mariano and Wagner. Of the two, Mariano is older and seems to be more prone to aches and pains, so I think I’ll opt for Wagner (knock on wood.) He’s apparently working on a splitter, which might reduce his strikeouts a bit, but hopefully will allow him to reduce his pitch count. It hurts a little to pass on Andruw, but in these RIBC drafts, there just aren’t enough early round picks to satisfy your complete wish list, and I think I'll focus on a second middle infielder next round.

Building 7
ID: 571192610
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 15:12

3.13 Mariano Rivera, RP, NYY

Hope that he holds up. Putz was a close 2nd. Figgins was 3rd choice. Hoping to take a speedy MI with my 4th pick just 7 picks from now. If guru had not taken a RP (Wagner) I would have probably picked Figgins. He did and that left 2 Tier 2 RP’s with 3 people left to take 2 picks each behind me. The downside is that now I have to cheer for the Yankees.

I’m not big on predictions. I’ll guess 40 saves, and the usual rediculous sub-1.00 WHIP and low ERA.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 15:27

for KKB:
3.14 J.J. Putz, RP, SEA
I believe the Closer Run has officially started. It started in Round 3 last year and Round 4 in 2005. I figured this was close[r] enough between the two that it was officially on, especially given the sharp drop-off in job security after the first handful of closers.

Putz was lights out last year. 104 K in 78.3 IP and only 13 BB and 20 ER. BUT, that includes stats before he was the full-time closer. When he took over the closer job for good in mid-May, he posted 34 saves in 43.2 IP, 55 K, 1.69 ERA, and a 9:1 K/BB. That's the Putz I expect to get this year. And if he comes through, I figure he could/should be good for 45+ saves, 90+ K, a sub-2 ERA, and sub-1 WHIP.

I also considered Street and took a peek at [still undrafted] with this pick, but liked Putz's strikeout rate too much to pass him up.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 15:28

for JTSERB:
3.15 Michael Young, SS, TEX

Wasen't really sure who to pick here. I was hoping Oswalt would fall to me here, but he went 4 picks earlier. With all the SB SS gone ahead of this pick I figured Young would be a safe pick. He has hit over .300 for 4 straight years and nad his lowest played games was 159 so I know I can put him in there everyday and not worry about him. All in all I wasent expecting to pick Young here, but I was in a jam on who to pick and hopefully went with the "safe pick"

filthy
ID: 370396
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 18:33

3.16 Andruw Jones, OF, ATL
I had to set a long queue with these picks, and when I saw who I ended with, I wasn't immediately thrilled, but getting an MVP caliber player in a contract year isn't so bad. Probably smart to pick with my head over my heart once in a while;) I can easily see Andruw putting in a monstrous effort to ensure a monstrous payoff next year.

4.01 Felix Hernandez, SP, SEA
Everyone knows about the hype surrounding this kid. Last year he kinda had a little step back but I think the expectations were just a little high. I feel that this is the year he explodes, as he came into camp in better shape this year. So much upside here, I love it.

KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 354152921
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 19:03

for JTSERB
4.02 Brandon Webb, SP, ARI
Figured it was time to get some pitching after my first three picks were all hitters. Figured I couldn't go wrong with Webb here. He won the CY Young last year, solid era, solid whip, decent amount of SO, another safe pick which seems to be my strategy so far.

KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 354152921
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 19:04

4.03 Houston Street, RP, OAK
My expectation of the Closer Run was stymied a bit by Designated Picker selections for 3.15 - 4.02. Still, that didn't stop me from grabbing another upper-echelon closer in Street to not get left out in the cold with just a single closer who has a great grip on the job.

Street posted 37 saves in 70.7 innings last year with a gaudy 3.31 ERA, but low-enough 1.090 WHIP. His 8.53 K/9 suggests to me that he'll be fine and there's no reason to believe he's anything but entrenched in the closers role. I'll hope for, and be happy with, 35+ saves, 70 K, a sub-2.5 ERA, and 1.000-ish WHIP.

Later, it's clear the Closer Run was not to be, but I still feel good about having Putz and Street anchoring my RPs with what should easily be 80 saves and could be more like 90. Even though the Closer Run didn't happen as with previous years, the upper level Closers that I would seriously consider were gone by my next pick.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 21:04

for Building 7:
4.04 Chone Figgins, 2B, Ana
This guy fills two needs. Steals and plays 2B. Looks like he may bat 9th, but there's some excuse every spring not to take him, and he keeps getting a lot of steals. I remember him batting 9th a lot last year and he did OK. I seem to get this guy every year. I really wanted one of the speedy shortstops, but my draft slot did not really allow it. Anyways, this pick allows me to go different ways for the rest of the draft.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 21:06

4.05 Carlos Guillen, SS, Det

Through 52 picks, we’ve had 15 pitchers and 37 hitters taken. I’ve taken a DH, a SS, and a closer. Two of the four names on my short list for middle infielders have disappeared (Young & Figgins), leaving Roberts and Guillen. I still don’t know what my hitting weakness will tend to be, but it might be steals (it often is), which makes Brian Roberts’ relative value a bit suspect.

Troy Glaus is another intriguing alternative (he’s eligible at SS & 3B), but it seems a bit early for him now, even though he probably won’t last until 5.12. (But if he does, he won’t last until 5.13!)

Although none of the other RIBC leagues has taken Guillen this early (he’s generally been an early 5th rounder), I have him ranked as the approx. the 40th best hitter, and the 8th best hitter on the board currently. The top 7 are all OF, 1B, or DH. I think this qualifies as “taking a middle infielder when it’s not a reach”. Guillen provides decent value in all cats, keeping my options open as the draft proceeds. Consensus projections are 92-77-14-.387-.511. RotoWire is the most negative on him, citing injury concerns based on a “lengthy injury history.” But he appeared in 153 games last year (thus prompting RotoWire to figure he’s “due”), and there have been no warning signs so far this spring.

Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 21:56

4.06 ~ Paul Konerko, 1B, CWS

As I described in rationale 3.11, I was going to take a bit of a reach and take Carlos Guillen with this pick. After looking at the qualifying leagues, and multiple mock drafts, I felt plenty secure that Guillen would be there for me. I still can’t get over my shock of Guru selecting Guillen at 4.05 (coupling him with Jeter). The four closers I had targeted all were selected. It’s a drop to the next tier of middle infield. I decided to skip on Trevor Hoffman (the next closer on my list), and add more lumber to the lineup.

I narrowed the choices to Konerko and Vernon Wells. I already have one OFer, and a 1B. All the juicy first basemen are getting nabbed, so I’ll pick Konerko and fill the CI position. Konerko has produced excellent power numbers the last 3 seasons. Over the past two years, he has reduced his ground ball rate to 33 percent, which is an excellent approach considering his lack of speed and home park. U.S. Cellular Field increases right-handed home runs by 33 percent.

I’m not unsatisfied with Konerko. I’ll just have to be more selective later in the draft when I’m choosing my middle infield.

Peter N.
ID: 16222119
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 03:40

for holt:
4.07 Trevor Hoffman, RP, SD
anyone mind if I just cut and paste my rationale from last season?

"4.16 Trevor Hoffman, RP, SD I knew the closer run would go into full swing sometime in the 3rd round but it worked out ok. when my 4.16 pick came around hoffman, (undrafted), and f.cordero were all still available. I can see pros and cons for all 3 of them, but I finally decided on hoffman because he's had a whip under 1.20 for 12 straight seasons. (undrafted) doesn't have much of a track record to go by, and francisco cordero, well, I've seen him pitch in person and there's just something not right about that guy. :D"

Just change the pick number, and the whip under 1.20 for 13 seasons. the rest still applies. by readin other rationales it seems I got really lucky that he was available here. the closers taken after him are all a big drop-off (in either production or risk). I don't think I could have gotten a better player at this point in the draft. yeah he's just a closer, but this is a 16 team league. have you ever tried to trade for a closer in this league? last year I had to trade A-Rod to get it done (thanks MC/TB :).

For blue hen's lazyass:
4.08 Vernon Wells, OF, TOR

As great as Wells is, I had buyers' remorse as soon as I hit the button. I wasn't sure why. I almost took Carlos Delgado. Delgado is great, but I really didn't feel like having two first basemen in the first four picks.

The guy I should have taken is Troy Glaus. Shortstop eligible, he is almost as good as Miguel Tejada, but he was taken 41 picks later. The middle infield crowd is starting to thin out, and Glaus would have filled up a big chunk nicely.

Of course, it's like being a worse bike rider than Lance Armstrong. Vernon Wells is great. Young and in his prime, entering a free agent year, Wells should put up spectacular numbers for a Toronto team that should score a ton of runs. He even steals a bit. I'm hoping that guys like Bay and Wells can give me enough of a base that I won't have to reach for steals later.

Peter N.
ID: 16222119
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 03:42

4.09 Ben Sheets, SP, MIL
I really went back and forth with this pick. I was originally targeting Hoffman, but he did not make it. I still thought about taking a closer, but felt that the remaining available would be a reach at this point. I am taking a chance on a closer run leaving me screwed, but that’s the way it is. I also thought about 2nd base, but couldn’t pull the trigger there either. In the end, I decided to get someone who I feel can anchor my staff. Sheets fits that billing. Considering 8 starting pitchers went ahead of him, I feel pretty good about getting him at this point. He can mow down hitters and eat up innings. Injuries have always been the question with him, but I’m willing to take the risk with the team he has around him this year. He should be a nice source of wins, Ks, ERA, and WHIP. Here’s to a healthy Sheets.

Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 07:19

for Bags:
4.10 Brad Lidge, RP, HOU

This might have been a panic pick. I had a stack of closers in my queue and thought I might be able to draft one of them. When it was my turn to pick all of my top closers were gone. Even though the top closers were gone I still felt I needed to grab one here.

Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 07:20

4.11 Prince Fielder

Tough pick. I wanted to select another hitter with the potential for a .900+ OPS and 200 Runs/RBI’s. Prince, Zimmerman and Helton were the top three in my model. I dismissed Helton because he scares me. Two years of declining stats and a mystery illness last season. No thanks.

I decided on Prince because I feel like his numbers will take a big leap in his second season. He got more comfortable as the season moved along last year, his post ASB OPS was .871 compared with .799 before. He also has stolen 11/8/7 bases in the past three years. I was concerned it was a little too early to draft Prince at 59, he’s averaging 79 in all Kafenatid leagues. I was the first person to draft Ryan Howard last season at 45, his average was 63. We’ll see if I can strike gold two seasons in a row.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 10:02

for Dave R:
4:12 Johnny Damon, OF, NYY

With this pick I wanted to grab someone to play the outfield and felt that Damon and V. Wells were the two best options. I was hoping one of them made it back to me and Damon did.

Damon had foot problems last year, but still swiped 25 bases and scored 115 runs with an excellant OPS of .841. Looking for similar production. Damon also is capable of nice RBI numbers and should be able to knock in around 80 runs.

With Damon and Rollins, I have a nice foundation in runs and SB's to build on.

Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 10:59

4.13 Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY

My biggest regret last year was not following up on my plan to fill out my MI with the first 3 picks. I am still regretting not going with Utley in the first round. I was consoled by the fact that I projected Cano, Figgins, and Roberts to be available with this pick. Having already landed two speedsters at SS, Cano should be able to provide the best benefits to me in the SLG and RBI departments. Only 24, Cano has tremendous upside, especially considering the lineup around him.

Athletics Guy
ID: 281162612
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 16:08

4.14 Carlos Delgado, 1B, NYM

After taking Hanley in the previous round, I was so sure I was going to take a closer with this pick. But the more I looked at the list of closers available, it just didn't seem like I was going to get good value. Rather than make a bit of a reach for one of the available closers, I decided to grab a big bat instead. I debated between Carlos Delgado and Jason Giambi for quite a bit. I had them both pretty even in every statistical category, so I would have been content with either one. In the end, I just went with my gut (as well as my hatred for the Yankees) and took Delgado. I have him projected for 95 R, 115 RBI, .370 OBP and .560 SLG which is lightly better than what he did last season.

StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 16:10

4.15, Brian Roberts, 2B, Balt

Some people are taking closers and pitchers as expected, but I really need some more to go in the next few rounds. Guru taking Guillen was painful as I really thought he would make it back to me. Also didn’t like seeing Figgins go but figured he would be gone for sure. As I mentioned in 3.02, I am targeting speed and power and looking for one of the players to be a MI. If the right power bat is available I might forgo the SBs altogether as right now I’m looking at Glaus or Hall at SS.

I am now leaning towards taking two players that will help in at least 4 categories, or maybe two lesser guys with SB potential. After much deliberation I’ve decided to go for Brian Roberts. I’m not going to get much in the way of power numbers from 2B anyway, so might as well get some steals here. Would rather have had Figgins but he was taken. If Roberts can hit to his 2005 season and keep the SBs at his 2006 season then he will be a very good value pick here. I expect more like something in-between with around 25-30SBs but with a few more rbis than last year. I could have taken Glaus now but figured Roberts might be more on the mind of Philsphan now that Figgins and Cano are gone too.

StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 16:29

for Philsphan:
4.16 Jason Giambi 1B, NYA
By now half the teams have a good foundation of saves and steals. I have nothing. At first I was going to get a closer and base stealer but found Giambi too hard to pass up. I had been eyeing Pierre since he was the only other significant SB man left, but he was still pretty far down my charts. So my thinking then became why go after one category (SB) when I can strengthen 4 others with one pick? My offense now averages 103 R, 120 RBI and 1.000 OPS. That will keep me solid for several more rounds. Besides, Giambi was on my team 2 years ago in AA and was responsible for my climb from the abyss that year.

5.01 John Smoltz, SP, ATL
Smoltz was another differentiation pick. By now 7 closers have been taken, so we are now down to 2nd tier pitchers. There is not much difference now if I wait on a closer a little longer and take another stud starter off the board. I hope that this strategy will pay off for me in the end. I noticed one other manager doing the same thing. We’ll see how this works out.

StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 16:31

5.02 Troy Glaus, SS, Tor

When I drafted my closer in round 3 I felt like I could pass on a SS as I thought Glaus might just make it back around as people might be thinking of him strictly as a 3B. Getting him here to me is about like getting Tejada. Glaus should get me some very good numbers in 4 categories. Considered taking Hall because he might get 10+ SBs but felt like Glaus was the safer bet despite some injury concerns and a bad spring so far.

Athletics Guy
ID: 470481017
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 20:00

5.03 Jim Thome, DH, CWS
Once again, I passed on taking my first closer. I was hoping someone would have drafted Jim Thome by now so that I wouldn't have to make this decision. I'm not too crazy about taking a player who can only fill the UTIL spot, but his numbers are just too good to pass up on. Although he's starting to reach that age where hitters tend to slow down, his 2006 season sure didn't show any signs of it. Thome should still have at least another 40-HR season left in his tank. I'll be satisfied if he can get 100 R, 100 RBI while maintaining a .950 OPS for me. And those are pretty conservative projections.

Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 20:33

5.04 Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, WAS
5.04 Paul Konerko, 1B, CHW
5.04 Todd Helton, 1B, COL
5.04 Jeremy Bonderman, SP, DET

I was all set to grab a stud CI here, but saw Bonderman sitting there and couldn't resist. I may not have a true anchor, but at least I got a solid start in K's with the young'n out of Detroit. 1B/3B is the one of the positions where I am not as afraid of age, and Zimmerman's inexperience probably scared me off as much as Bonderman's potential drew me in. I thought there was a chance one of the guys I was looking at would come back to me, but am not heartbroken about missing out on any of them.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 20:35

for Dave R:
5.05 Daisuke Matsuzaka SP Bos

I almost decided to wait until round 6 to select a SP, after Smoltz went a few picks earlier. Thought of a few other yet to be drafted pitchers, but in the end decided to roll the dice with Matsuzaka.

Anything close to Rotowire's projections would make me a happy camper. 16 wins, 200+ K's and decent ratios. In his first two spring training starts, he is unscored on and has struck out 6 in 5 innings. Yeh, I know it's early, but worth a shot IMO.

Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 22:20

5.06 John Lackey, P, Ana

Lackey anchored my rotation last season and I targeted him in the 5th round early in my draft prep. What’s not to like, he’s 28, has thrown 200+ innings with an ERA under 4.00 last season, he also struck out 198 and 190. I think he’s one of two or three candidates for the Johan Santana award and I’m very happy to have him as a staff anchor in the 5th round. He only won 13 games last year, but that was mostly due to luck, 25 of his 33 start were “quality starts.”

Other players I considered, Ryan Zimmerman, Curt Schilling, and Jermaine Dye. I love Zimmerman, if I didn’t already have Cabrera and Fielder I probably would have drafted him, but I didn’t want to finish my CI spots in the first five rounds. I like Schilling for a bounce back year, especially since he’s pitching for a new contract. However, I couldn’t make an argument to draft him ahead of Lackey. I think their upside is very similar, while Schilling has much greater injury risk. If I was confident Dye could repeat 2006 I would have drafted him, I expect numbers closer to 2005, which aren’t quite worth a selection here.

Peter N.
ID: 16222119
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 23:25

for Bags:
5.07 Bill Hall, SS, MIL

After passing on a SS in the 2nd and 3rd rounds I didn’t want to wait any longer for my SS. Hall was the next best SS after Furcal and Young on my rankings. He will be hitting cleanup for the Brew Crew this year and should drive in 100. I also like his ability for double digit steals.

Peter N.
ID: 16222119
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 23:27

5.08 Nick Swisher, 1B/OF, OAK

I took Sheets hoping Delgado or Giambi would make it back to me. I wanted to have a power hitting 1st basemen with a nice OBP. Well, neither Giambi or Delgado made it back to me and even Fielder was picked. Looking at the remaining options at 1st base, Swisher stood out. I’m not sure if I could have waited for another round and looked elsewhere, but I did not want to take the chance. Swisher has immense upside and belted 35 homeruns last year. I expect him to be more consistent at the plate this year and post an OBP around .370 and a SLG% around .500. He should also contribute sufficiently in Runs and RBIs. It’s tough to have a problem with that kind of production from your 1st basemen.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 00:25

for blue hen:
5.9 Chipper Jones, 3B, ATL

With two outfielders, a 1B, and a closer, I really needed some position scarcity. Well, maybe not - I think third base is the deepest position this year (as it was last year). Last year, I came out of the draft with Garrett Atkins as my starter.

There were really 3 options to take at third base: Jones, Ryan Zimmerman, and Scott Rolen. I really think Chipper is way ahead of both the others. He had numbers some 1B being taken couldn't even muster. I'm quite happy with this pick and I can concentrate on other areas.

There weren't really any players I was thinking about for this pick after Delgado and Glaus went.

holt
ID: 590581711
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 01:15

5.10 Takashi Saito, RP, LAD

this is a 16 team league. you need 2 decent closers minimum unless you want to punt a category. obviously there aren't enough closers to go around (especially when you consider how many unstable closer situations there are). with Hoffman and Saito I feel like I got a good duo, and I didn't have to jump until the 4th rd. I even considered taking a 3rd closer in Ray in the 6th round. their trade value can't be under-estimated.

anyway, Saito was a surprise to everyone last season. he was pretty steady and had great k/9. yeah he's getting up there in years but that's not necessarily a bad thing for a closer. there's a long list of aging veterans who have excelled as closers.

considered Dye, If I KNEW he'd repeat last years numbers I'd have taken him, but I don't think he will. I also looked at McCann but I have a really hard time drafting catchers. looked at some starters but they were all reaches at this point in the draft.

Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 01:15

5.11 ~ Julio Lugo, 2B/SS/3B, BOS

I need a middle infielder. My options were narrowed to: Lugo, Ian Kinsler (who I just took at 7.11), and Felipe Lopez. I decided to take Lugo who qualifies at both positions, and gives me more flexibility with my later picks. Maybe a bit of a reach, but seeing that most of the teams picking before my next pick still need a MI, I’ll take him now.

Hitting atop the potent Red Sox lineup, Lugo should provide a solid OBP for a MI and score around 100 runs. The Sox don’t run as much as I would like to see, but Lugo should still be good for 20 SBs.

Guru
Sustainer
ID: 171572711
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 11:42

5.12 Jermaine Dye, OF, CHW
Jermaine Dye produced what will probably turn out to be his “career year” last season. He cooled a little during the second half, although he still posted an OBP of.371 and SLG of .595 after the All Star break. Even those numbers aren’t necessary for Dye to have value at this point. I’d be happy with 90-105-.360-.560, which would probably make him the best hitter available at this point. Maybe that’s still a bit greedy, because those exceed his averages over the last three years, and he is 33 – not old, but probably no longer on the upward trend, last year notwithstanding.

Using my philosophy from prior years, I’d have probably nabbed a second closer here. If I’d have done that, Chad Cordero would have gotten the nod. But after taking shortstops in rounds 2 & 4, I think I need to nab a legitimate power guy while he’s still available.

Building 7
Sustainer
ID: 171572711
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 11:45

5.13 Brian McCann, C, ATL

This appears to be my best pick yet. It's always nice to look back and read these things and go....What was he thinking? I had him grouped in with the other two top catchers who went a couple rounds earlier. He hit a homerun at the last game I went to. Opposite field, and some girl caught it bare-handed, and before I could digest what was happening, she threw it back on the field. We didn't know it at the time, but after that it was all Astros, and they eventually won in 18 innings. Sorry to get side-tracked. McCann should bat somewhere in the middle, and I hope he does as well as last year. I was thinking about him with pick 4.04, so it was nice to see him there 25 picks later.
Also looking at Rolen and Helton. I figured one of them had a better chance of making it back to me than McCann. And Rolen did. Was thinking about Saito, but he was picked a few picks before me.

KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 12:02

5.14 Todd Helton, 1B, COL
This definitely qualifies as a "should have done more homework before setting your queue" pick. I was going to be on the road a bit and had to set a queue. Upon further reflection, I would have been better off with anybody else in my queue than Helton because I hadn't read up on his knee issue.

A lot of my season could come down to whether or not Helton's knee is healthy enough to hit his projections (I have him at 90 RBI, 105 R, 3 SB, .975 OPS without any knee issues) or if he'll tank his OPS like he did last year. He should be good for the RBI and R, but the OPS will be the biggest question mark.

As Rotowire points out, Helton has a bit of history claiming that his injuries aren't that major, so his claim that his knee issue is "no big deal" doesn't comfort me. I'll just have to wait-and-see, with fingers crossed and proper sacrifices sacrificed, if I can get a late 5th rounder's production out of him or not.

[03/12 Update: Looks like Helton is playing and is 3-for-3 with a R, so maybe I can have a glimmer of hope for the best case scenario...]

jtserb
Dude
ID: 31010716
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 12:12

5.15, Bobby Jenks, RP, CHW

Kind of a homer pick here, I needed a closer as the run had already started along time ago. Jenks has had some soreness in his shoulder this spring, but it has been said he will be alright. He had a horrible second half last year, but really the whole Sox pitching staff did and he just seemed to follow suit. The kid has amazing stuff, but he does walk a few to many batters. Im just hoping he holds the job all year and he should net 35 to 40 saves

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 12:15

for filthy:
5.16 Jered Weaver, SP, Ana
I didn't get a chance to reset my queue due to a busy weekend, and Jered Weaver just happened to be left from my previous long queue. I initially was gonna see if I could change it, but after looking around, Weaver was still pretty appealing to me. I really wanted a closer, but wasnt ready to go with some of the ones that were left, a gamble that didn't burn me thankfully. I might have to play it safe on some later picks but for now I'm going with my gut trying to find some upside. Go big or go home.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 12:16

Continue to next thread for rounds 6-10

Forum: basePage 19025Subject: RIBC 2007: Draft Rationales (rounds 1-5)

Forum: base
Page 19025
Subject: RIBC 2007: Draft Rationales (rounds 1-5)