Forum: base
Page 19029
Subject: RIBC 2007: Draft Rationales (rounds 6-10)

  Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 11:53
Continuing for the next five rounds.

Rationales for rounds 1-5
 
1Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 12:14 		for filthy:
6.01 Alex Rios, OF, Tor

Definitely chose him high, but honestly I don't care. I couldn't manage to get him last year and it killed me watching him blow up. I've watched him from day one and he has major star potential. Hopefully this is the year he puts it all together. I really had been eyeing Sabathia as well, but back to picking with my heart again.
 
2KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 13:17 		for JTSERB:

6.02 C.C. Sabathia, SP, CLE
Hitting his prime now, posted career numbers in ERA, WHIP, SO last year, but only had 12 wins. I fully expect him to have similiar numbers than last year with 16-18 wins.
 
3KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 13:18 		6.03 Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, WAS
This is a bit of a double-Homer pick as living near Charlottesville makes me fond of Zimmerman for his days at U.Va. and his playing for Washington. Still, I see Zimmerman as a cheap Aramis Ramirez with steals. Considering Ramirez was selected 2.16, if Zimmerman comes close to that assessment, he'll be a sweet pick at 6.03. Consider 2006 stats:

A. Ramirez (28 yo): 119 RBI, 93 R, 2 SB, .912 OPS
Zimmerman (21 yo): 110 RBI, 84 R, 11 SB, .822 OPS

Clearly, Zimmerman has quite a bit of OPS to make up, but I like how his other numbers compare to Ramirez. I'm figuring that Ramirez will pretty much hold steady while Zimmerman will improve on the OPS, while holding steady elsewhere. I think 110 RBI, 90 R, 10 SB, and .875 OPS are reasonable projections, even if they're a bit more favorable than Rotowire.

There's always the threat of a sophomore slump and suffering from being THE guy for the Nats, but I'll take my chances given what I've seen from him both with WAS and U.Va.

I fully admit that had C.C. Sabathia been available (6.02), I would have taken him. I also had Sheffield ranked above Zimmerman in my queue, but took Zimmerman because of the plethora of OFers available.
 
4Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 13:40 		for Building 7:
6.04 Scott Rolen, 3B. StL

I should have taken a pitcher here. I now have 5 batters and 1 pitcher. I am rolling the dice that some good ones make it back to me, 25 picks from now. The drafters above me have taken 48 batters and 17 pitchers to this point. I knew a run on pitching was coming. I am hoping there are enough good ones left for my next two picks, which must be pitchers. None of the pitchers at this point really stood out, possibly Cain. I had Rolen rated over Zimmerman, I may be in the minority on that one. I had the three of them in a group with Chipper. I try to break the positions into little groups of 3 or so, and then draft someone who will cause a big dropoff. IMO, there is a dropoff at 3b after this pick. Not quite the 9th round where I got him in the mock draft, but it sounds like he was on other people’s radar.
 
5Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 13:41 		6.05 Chad Cordero, RP, Was

I’m on the fence for this pick.

Eleven closers have been taken, and the only available option that I would consider with this pick is Chad Cordero. I do want a second closer, and there are still quite a few teams that haven’t drafted any yet. And there’s no point in getting just one closer. You either get none, or you get 2 or more. There will be some opportunities later on to take speculative closers (or “closers-in-waiting”), but with Cordero I think I know what I’m getting.

The top hitters on the board right now seem to offer fair value, but none are screaming to be picked. Zimmerman or Rolen would have been tempting, since I’m missing a 3rd sacker, but I don’t think that will be a troublesome position to fill.

I don’t have a SP yet, but I’m content to wait another round or two. That approach has served me well that past couple of years.

So, in the absence of a compelling alternative, I think I’ll take Cordero. He’s pitching for a bad team in a rebuilding year, which might hurt his save opps, but it also might lead to him being traded to a better team. His ratios should be good enough to help me, although not to the extent that one of the elite closers would.
 
6Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 15:10 		6.06 ~ Francisco Cordero, RP, MIL

For the second time in three rounds I cursed out loud. In the 4th round, I was certain that Guru wouldn’t take Carlos Guillen … and he did. This round I was certain he wouldn’t take Chad Cordero. And he did. I wonder how’ll he’ll mess up my best laid plans in the 8th round? I certainly now realize that I need more than a 1-man queue.

On my cheat sheet, I actually have Francisco ranked above Chad, but I preferred Chad. Francisco has ERA and WHIP numbers a little higher than I want from a closer, but he meets all 3 LIMA standards. If he can keep up a K/9 of 10+, he’ll treat me well.

 
7Peter N.
ID: 56237138
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 17:18 		for Holt
6.07 JD Drew, OF, BOS
I always plan to draft Drew. it's just a matter of waiting as long as I possibly can. I don't know if he would have lasted another rd or not. His reputation for being injury-prone always drives his value down, and some people just flat out don't like him. anyway, he can supply a +.900 OPS easily (he's gone over 1.000 twice, 2001 & 2004). no matter what you might think of him, the guy has amazing talent. I was hoping to draft his brother too but he went in the 9th rd.

can't say I wasn't tempted to draft Chris Ray here. I thought about it a while. matsui, sexson, and sheffield were also still available. any of those guys would have been decent picks. I'm happy with my decision though. if there's a player you want, you gotta just draft them. if you wait to see how late you can draft someone, that's exactly what happens. you see how late you could have drafted them.

 
8Peter N.
ID: 56237138
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 17:19 		for blue hen
6.08 Matt Cain, SP, SFO
In retrospect, I should have made the trade. Mach was willing to accept taking my 6,7,9 for his 6,7,8. He would have been able to get Ray (although he managed to do fine in the closer department). As it turns out, I might have still gotten Cain at 6.14 and the definitely gotten Lopez at 7.03, then had two 8th round picks, one of which might have been Cameron or Kent.

Hindsight is 20/20. Needless to say, Matt Cain is a sensational pitcher, in a great ballpark, on a team that might be decent. I expect about 200 K's with an ERA around 3. A great anchor for my rotation.

 
9Peter N.
ID: 56237138
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 17:20 		6.09 Chris Ray, RP, BAL

With both Cordero’s flying off the board and not much else left out there, I decided to address my closer position. I thought about Gagne, but Ray is a much safer pick. 13 picks have gone from the closer position, but I consider Ray to be top 10. I think if he was on a better team and his strikeout rate was more impressive, he would’ve already been gone. Still, I’m not going to complain picking up a closer of his caliber at this point in the draft. I’m expecting a save total in the mid 30s, an ERA under 3 and a WHIP just over 1.
 
11Bags
Leader
ID: 13961611
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 18:34 		6.10 - Rich Harden, SP, OAK

When I mapped out my first 10 picks I knew I wanted a SP here in the 6th round. I have never been a believer in taking a starter early. At the top of my list of pitchers I had Sabathia, one of these years I think he will win a Cy Young. The other pitcher who could win a Cy Young in Harden, if he can stay healthy. I hope this is his year, my season kind of depends on it.
 
12Flying Polack
Leader
ID: 13961611
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 18:35 		6.11 - Curt Schilling, SP, BOS

Well, I almost took Schilling in the 5th round so it was pretty much a no brainer in the 6th. For fantasy purposes, I think it’s good the Red Sox didn’t offer him an extension; he’ll be pitching for his last contract. Also, we know Curt likes attention. I’m guessing he’ll have a little extra motivation this season to keep some attention from Dice-K. I did consider drafting Gary Sheffield, Jason Schmidt, and Brian Fuentes. I’ll discuss that in my next rationale.
 
13Dave R
Leader
ID: 13961611
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 18:36 		6.12 - Hideki Matsui, OF, NYY

I was fully prepared to grab a second closer with this pick. Three drafting after me hadn't picked one yet, and quite a few had taken two already.
But with Matsui ( and Sexson ) still available, I immediately switched gears. Either one was too good to pass up late in round 6.
Matsui suffered a broken wrist last year, missed significant time, but has declared himself fully healthy. Notably that stretch accounted for the only games he has missed in the Majors. A healthy Matsui should be good for around 100 runs and RBI's and more than acceptable %'s.
 
14Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 18:36 		6.13 - Richie Sexson, 1B, SEA

Tom Gordon and Brian Fuentes are the closer options here, but one is nearing 40 and the other pitches in Colorado. I am relying on Sexson add to my SLG and RBI base. He is a drag on the OBP, but has stated that he wants to walk more this season. His OPS after the all-star break was over 1.00, so if he can avoid the opening month slump he might compare favorably to the tier above him which I passed on last round.
 
15Athletics Guy
ID: 281162612
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 19:25 		6.14 Tom Gordon, RP, PHI

Well it's about time I picked up some saves. There were already a few teams with 2 closers, so I was sort of going into a panic mode. Although it's possible to win by punting this category (Chris proved that in the 2005 RIBC), I don't think I have the managing skills to pull that off. I originally wanted Chris Ray, but he was taken a few picks before my turn. I felt this was somewhat of a reach. Gordon might have made it back to me in round 8. I guess we'll never know now. What I do know is that I drafted him at about the same spot last season and it turned out to be an excellent pick. As long as Gordon stays off the DL, he should be good for around 35 saves.
 
16Philsphan
Donor
ID: 301442416
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 20:18 		for StlCards:
6.15 Gary Sheffield, 1b/of, Det

The inevitable is happening. You make a pick and then watch all the other players you had been considering go off the board well before it gets back around. I have been forcing myself to face that reality, but it is hard nonetheless. Hopefully I will be able to get a power bat with a high ops in this round. Any position will do, but I still need a 1B so that will have preference. At the start of the round when I made my last pick I had identified 4 or 5 1B that would be options. Helton, LaRoche, Sexson, Swisher, and Sheffield. Kent is also available as a 1B. My feeling was that Sheffield might make it back to me. If there are still a few of the 1B left or if none are left, then I will look at Kent at 2B with this pick. Another option is Rios. I’m also going to consider Bonds here if all the other options are gone. Drew and Matsui are other possibilities and Matsui really should be gone by now. Dye was the other one who had lots of value in my rankings who was still on the board. Rios though would throw in some steals. Very possible they all get taken though. Since Philsphan has the next two picks before I pick again I may wait on the 1B if available since he already has 2 and isn’t likely to take another one yet.

I know once the top bats are off the board that people will turn to pitching quickly and so far in this round 4 pitchers have gone off the board, including Sabbathia whom I was targeting. This is kind of a turning point in the draft. Do I take some pitching or fill in some other critical needs first? Only 1 team has a 1B/3B and CI filled so I expect any top players at those positions will get taken before it gets back to me. I also expect as many as 11 SP will go off the board before it gets back to me and there are already 18 pitchers taken. That means I’m looking down to about the 30th ranked pitcher. So the question now is the difference between Matsui anchoring my OF vs someone else compared to the 20th or 30th pitcher.

My next two picks were going to be Matsui and Sexson, so that really hurts seeing them go off the board. Matsui was my highest ranked hitter still available for what I was looking at and 1B options are really becoming scarce without having to project young unproven players which rarely seems to work out. Right now I think I need to be safe and take Sheffield. LaRoche is the other option, but I expect a nice rebound from Sheffield and playing mostly DH should help keep some of the wear and tear off his body.
 
17Philsphan
Donor
ID: 301442416
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 20:19 		6.16 Juan Pierre, OF, LAD
This and my next pick may be the turning point here. I missed out on the steals and saves runs. But then again, with only one pick in every 16, you can’t cover everything, right? I was going to draft Matsui or Sheffield, and then Ray or Gordon. Those four disappeared in the 6 picks previous to mine. Talk about frustrating. This could be the biggest mistake of the draft right here for me. However, with my hitters so far averaging a 1.000 OPS I thought I could afford the ratio hits of the light-hitting Pierre. I do expect close to 100 runs from him and 50-60 SB, so this isn't really a "waste" pick.

7.01 Todd Jones, RP, DET
A clear gamble, but there isn’t much left to choose from. I just hope he stays healthy all year. In reality I came dangerously close to picking Kazmir or Schmidt in this spot. However I knew this would probably happen when I chose Smoltz in the 5th round. I’d still rather have my 2 starters at this point, and I think there will be enough good starters to choose from when it gets back around to me.
 
18Peter N.
ID: 56237138
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 21:25 		for StlCards:
7.02 Jason Schmidt, SP, LAD

Now that most of the upper echelon hitters are off the board I expect to see somewhat of a run on starting pitchers. I’ll have to admit that philsphan taking Pierre caught me off guard. I really figured he’d look to RP and SS or maybe even grab a 3rd SP. Makes sense to take a SB guy and I had been looking at Pierre myself, but didn’t think my OPS was high enough to offset his dismal numbers in those categories. Had Matsui been available I would have grabbed him and Sexson or him and Sheffield, but as they disappeared I figured pitching was the smarter play. Looking at available pitchers there were again 4 or 5 I liked, but unlike the 1B position with the last pick, I didn’t think one of those pitchers would make it back to me. I really expect to see no less than 11 pitchers go off the board before my next pick leaving me to choose from somewhere around the 30th pitcher available. That is still not a bad play there, but what I really wanted coming in was a very solid SP with low era/whip and high K’s without reaching too far. With this pick I am looking at Young, Kazmir, and Schmidt. I think I will take Schmidt with this pick. He has a high K rate, good numbers in both era and whip. I’m not sure there will be much ‘park effect’ in going to LA from SF, but could be a little and I think his wins might go up. I’m looking for around 180K’s,14W, 1.28whip, 3.8era. I actually have Young ranked a little higher and if Kazmir pitches 200 innings then he will outperform Schmidt in K’s, but probably not wins. I project Schmidt as a bit safer pick here.

By taking my second pitcher here I feel I am really set up well to simply address the best players on the board regardless of position for my next picks.
 
19Athletics Guy
ID: 281162612
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 21:38 		7.03 Brian Fuentes, RP, COL

I was thinking hard about whether or not to take a 2nd closer here, since the list was really starting to dwindle down. I was also looking to add another starting pitcher. But when Jason Schmidt was drafted, StLCards made my decision for me so much easier. Many fantasy managers don't like idea of drafting a Rockies pitcher, but Brian Fuentes is highly underrated in my opinion. Since becoming the team's closer, Fuentes has put together back-to-back 30-save seasons. That's pretty impressive considering the Rockies have been at the bottom of the standings during that time.
 
20Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 21:51 		7.04 - Brett Myers, SP, PHI

I was set on trading this pick to Guru, as all of the CI whom I were looking at felt like reaches. I imagine he was going after Fuentes anyways, so the trade would probably not have gone through. Then I decided to check out my projections for the remaining pitchers and paid attention to the K column. Myers led my projections by 15. Seeing the mini-run on starters (4 out of the following 6 picks), I am glad I didn't pull the trigger on the deal with Guru. As a bonus, Adrian Gonzalez made it back to me.
 
21Dave R
Leader
ID: 13961611
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 22:46 		7.05 Dan Haren SP Oak

I hate this pick. Truthfully, no matter who I grabbed here I would be saying the same thing. First I wanted to grab that elusive 2nd closer. Couldn't find one I liked. Then I looked at hitter, and couldn't find one of them I really liked either.

On to starters and none jumped out at me. If I saw Guru's email and post about swapping picks before, I may have jumped at it.

On to Haren. He is more than a servicable second starter. As were other options. Looking for 15 or so wins and around 175 K's. Looking at other drafts, this seems about the right round for Haren.
 
22Guru
Leader
ID: 13961611
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 22:47 		7.06 Felipe Lopez, SS(2B), Was
I think I’m crazy. But is it crazy like a fox, or crazy like a loon?

I already have two quality shortstops (Jeter & Guillen), and now I take a third? And my Util slot is already clogged with Hafner?

The gambit is that Lopez will gain 2B eligibility fairly early in the season, as he’s slated to open the season at 2B for the Nats. If so, then I have three pretty solid MIs, and I also avoid punting on SB this year. Many of the remaining significant stealers are outfielders, and I’d much rather use a weaker slot like 2B to fill that need.

If this blows up and Lopez doesn’t get 2B elig, then I guess I have some trade bait. Or else I have to hope that Hafner gets 1B eligibility, although that isn’t likely to happen soon.

I traded up 6 spots for this because three of the intervening teams have no shortstops yet, and I figured Lopez wouldn’t slide through all three. I didn’t figure that waiting an extra 6 picks on the way back would hurt much.

Washington may have a lousy team, but if anything, I hope that gives Lopez all the more opportunities to run. His power dropped after the trade from Cincy to Washington, but his scoring and OBP didn’t seem to be affected. (A negative is that he won’t have Soriano to knock him in this year.) In any event, I have him ranked as the 70th best hitter overall, and 63 hitters have already been drafted. Once again, if I can get a middle infielder or a catcher without reaching, I think it makes sense. Now I just have to hope I can get to use him for close to 5½ months.

 
23Bags
Leader
ID: 13961611
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 22:49 		7.07 Barry Zito, SP, SF

While Zito is a great pitcher on his own, I had to draft another one here to protect myself incase Harden gets hurt. I think the move to the NL will be good for Zito, he should lower both his ERA and WHIP while increasing is K’s.
 
24Peter N.
ID: 56237138
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 23:41 		7.08 Rickie Weeks, 2B, MIL

I had Felipe Lopez pegged for this pick. I then saw where Guru wanted to trade up and immediately feared the worse. And what do you know, Guru strikes again! :-) That pick sent me scrambling.(note to self: do not make a one man queue and get locked in on a guy) As it turns out, after Lopez was picked, Weeks was screaming to be scooped up. I couldn’t resist at this point and drafted my 2nd basemen. Weeks is coming off major wrist surgery, but all early reports have him ready to go by opening day. Weeks has the potential for a nice power/speed combo at 2nd base and an OBP that is top-notch for the position. I expect him to swipe 25-30 bases and post an OBP around .360. Batting in front of a solid lineup in Milwaukee, he should also be an excellent source of runs.
 
25Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 07:54 		for blue hen:
7.09 Cole Hamels, SP, Phi
It was around this point that it occurred to me that there were only a few truly elite players left on the board. After Cain went, the following players I'd targeted were all taken: Sheffield, Sexson, Ray, Gordon, Schmidt, Schilling, Zito, Lopez, and Weeks. Especially Sheffield - StlCards is getting (another) huge bargain.

At this point, I really thought another starting pitcher would really solidify stuff. I had Hamels above Bedard, Kazmir, Chris Young, and Harang, largely because I could see Hamels getting 250 strikeouts this year, even playing in that bandbox. Actually, since there were so many pitchers around, I considered going elsewhere, taking Jeff Kent, Frank Thomas, Mike Cameron, or Ryan Freel. Freel, especially, would have helped, and went before my next pick (too early, Polack), but in the end, I am left with a good base of Hamels and Cain, and I can't really complain about that.

 
26Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 07:54 		for Holt:
7.10 Scott Kazmir, SP, Tam
I still didn't have any SP's. gotta start taking them some time. I thought for sure that Kazmir be gone before now. I expect at least a K per IP, ERA in low 3's, whip under 1.3. I don't expect 20 wins. I hope for 180 IP.

chris young would have been a safer bet, but I chose to go with the higher upside and crossed my fingers that young would make it to my #8. he didn't.

interesting fact:
In 32 games in 2005, Kazmir led all rookies with 174 strikeouts while only giving up 12 home runs over 186 innings (or 1HR every 15.5 innings).

 
27Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 07:56 		for Tosh:
7.11 ~ Ian Kinsler, 2B, TEX

I need a middle infielder. Lopez and Weeks were just drafted, and I suspect that a couple more will be drafted before my 8.06 pick. There are lots of options, all fairly similar, with upside and downside to everyone. At the scarce position of 2B, Kinsler's combination of power and speed in a friendly home park is worth an investment. Other options were Uggla, Kendrick, and Barfield. Uggla was the only one that went prior to 8.06.

Guru was able to nab the guy I really wanted for the 3rd time in 4 picks (Lopez). He just had to trade up to do it this time. But since Peter N wanted Lopez as well … I won’t count this one against Guru.
 
28Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 07:57 		for Flying Polack:
7.12 Barry Bonds, OF, SF

After watching Sheffield, Schmidt, and Fuentes go in the ten picks between my 6th and 7th pick I couldn’t decide on anyone. I created a “short” list of 8 players. When I saw Guru post about trading up I figured this was a good opportunity for me. Hopefully I can get two of those 7 players now.

Well, the first part of the deal worked as I drafted Barry Bonds, who I would have taken in my original position and just three of the other players I was considering came off the board (Kazmir, Hamels and Lopez).

I decided the 108th pick was a good spot for Bonds, he’s been averaging 107 in other Kafenatid leagues. He fit well with my team’s philosophy of building a strong core at OB% and SLG%. Last season he had 493 plate appearances in 130 games, and finished 66th in my rankings. I expect him to play in a similar number of games, if not have a slight uptick since he had off-season surgery to clean out bone spurs. I was convinced it was okay to draft him last week when I saw him leg out a double in spring training. Here’s to one more year from the “juvenation” machine.
 
29Building 7
ID: 571192610
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 09:58 		7.13 Chris Young, SP, SD

Looks like a good time to pick a SP. This guy had a .200 batting average against. Pitches in San Diego, where he did worse. I don't usually carry a lot of starters, so it is extremely important for him to do well. Also looking at Gagne, and should have picked him here and then Young, 7 picks later. Papelbon was another choice. The only hitter I would have considered was Bonds and he went one pick before.
 
30KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 11:07 		7.14 Dan Uggla, 2B, FLA
Wow, that felt good! With MIers flying off the board faster than me trying surfing (the real kind, not the internet kind), I was starting to get concerned that I wouldn't be able to sneak a good MI with this pick. Thankfully, I think Uggla has remained off of people's radar because he's a 27-year old sophomore. Still, I like him.

As a 26-year old rookie, Uggla put up 90 RBI, 105 R, 6 SB, and .818 OBPS. Rotowire projects him with lower RBI and R (79 and 87, respectively), yet a higher OBPS (.823). Personally, I'm figuring on him somewhere in-between like 85 RBI, 95 R, 10 SB, and .820 OBPS. If he hits Rotowire's projections, he'll be a great 2B for me. If he hits last year's stats, even better!

Here's hoping September was just him getting tired from the Major League schedule and that he'll be more used to it this year. No matter what, I'm more than comfortable with Uggla as my starting 2B.
 
31KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 12:45 		for JTSERB:
7.15 Adam LaRoche, 1B, PIT
This was a panic pick here. I regretted it right away after I picked him. I really don't know much about Laroche, expcept that he was traded to the Pirates and Rototimes has him projected at .361 32 HRs, 95 RBIs.
 
32KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 12:45 		for filthy:
7.16 Eric Gagne, RP, TEX
More queue picks here, and I actually got my top 2 guys this time! There weren't really any other closers I wanted, if I couldn't get these guys I was just gonna go with some more bats. Apparently I have a little thing for upside, and Gagne has more upside in my mind than any closer for now... as long as going from Dodger Stadium to Arlington isn't too drastic of a move. As long as he can be relatively healthy, I think I got another steal.

8.01 Ryan Dempster, CHC, RP
 He's not that flashy, but if he can hold the job, the Cubs should give him some chances this year. Holding the job is the real problem though, but he has less competition than some of the other options that were available at this time. I have more faith in Gagne and Dempster than I did in my Guardado/MacDougal combo from last year's draft. Closers are such a crapshoot that I'm actually kinda glad I had no chance to get caught up in the initial closer run.

 
34KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 12:46 		for JTSERB:
8.02 Frank Thomas, DH, TOR
He will be in a better lineup with Toronton than Oakland. Can he repeat his numbers from last year? I sure hope so, but he will be turning 39 this year and his history of injuries that past 6 years is worrisome.
 
35KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 12:47 		8.03 Erik Bedard, SP, BAL
This was a tough choice for me. I had slated to select a SS to follow up my other MI selection of Uggla with 7.14. However, I saw what was available in terms of SS and didn't feel any of the available players warranted an 8.03 selection.

Thus, I was left choosing between Bedard and Chris Young (the pitcher). I REALLY like Chris Young, but will fully admit to being scared off by talk that he's looking to pitch to contact, as in inducing outs instead of striking out. If Young's not striking guys out at last year's 8.23 K/9, then he's not worth the pick at 8.03. Further, if he's wanting contact, that makes me even more scared of his 28 HR total and 0.46 G/F ratio. I'll let someone else have that ulcer, thank you very much.

In the end, Bedard is a fine selection. This is about the pick he's landed at in the drafts at Kafenatid and he should be able to improve on his 7.84 K/9, 3.76 ERA, and 1.350 WHIP from last year. Barring health issues, he should best Rotowire's projections of 16 W, 169 K, 3.75 ERA, and 1.324 WHIP and be a fine #2 pitcher for my team.
 
36Building 7
ID: 571192610
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 13:18 		8.04 Jason Isringhausen, RP, STL

Had to get my 2nd closer here. His problem was with his hip and not his arm. I hope the surgery fixed it. There seems to be a lot of closers with issues this year, after about the 10th one. Either they are semi-injured or they are not very good or they have someone breathing down their neck. It's sad when a closer will worsen your team ERA and WHIP.
 
37Flying Polack
Leader
ID: 057721710
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 14:06 		8.05 - Ryan Freel

Nobody picked between my 7th and 8th picks was really on my radar. I briefly considered Frank Thomas before taking Bonds, but I wouldn’t have taken him in the 8th round after taking Barry. That left me with four players to choose from: Burrell, Freel, Harang, and Delmon Young. Decided that there would be good value available for outfielders later, I narrowed it down to Freel and Harang.

After spending sometime on the Cincinnati Posts’ website, I decided on Freel. He’s eligible at 2B, 3B, and OF, making him very valuable in a league with no DL and a short bench. I’m also pretty low on steals at this point, I’m not looking to win the category, but I want to be around the middle. He also has a career OBP% of .367. He should contribute in runs as well, since he’ll likely leadoff and play everyday. All in all I think this is a pretty solid pick for the 8th round.
 
38Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 14:07 		8.06 ~ Aaron Harang, SP, CIN

Lots of directions I could go here. I need a 3B, an OF, a closer, and a SP. Harang's been a starter for three years, and he's improved each year. He led the NL in Ks and wins last season, and has a k/9 of over 7.5. He’s got control too: his K/BB is approaching 4.0. If he is able to keep a few more of his fly balls from leaving the ballpark, he’ll have a real breakout season. I expect continuing development from this 28 year old.
 
39Peter N.
ID: 42242140
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 14:51 		for holt
8.07 Jonathan Papelbon, P, BOS
There were still several starters available here that wouldn't be a reach, and I wanted to get my second SP under my belt so I could focus on other needs during the mid-rounds. Papelbon's sick #'s last season and strong reports on him this spring were too much for me to ignore. since I waited til rd 7 to start taking my SP's (kazmir), I figured I may as well go for upside. I didn't get carpenter or oswalt or webb, but at least I've got a couple guys with the potential of performing to that level.

2006: 0.92 ERA, 0.78 whip
is that sick or what?
hopefully his transition back to starter is a smooth one.

 
40Peter N.
ID: 42242140
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 14:52 		for blue hen
8.08 Morgan Ensberg, 3B, HOU
Morgan Ensberg might be the biggest enigma in all of Major League Baseball. On July 1, 2004, Ensberg had zero home runs in 201 at-bats. Since then, he's been pretty great, hitting .299 in the second half that season, and having sensational OBPs (.388 and .396) the past two years. Ensberg did hit .235 this year, but he walked so much that he was able to amass that astounding .396 OBP. Ensberg had a .945 OPS in 2005 and an .859 in 2006. I am looking for around .900 in 2007 and that's fine.

At this point, I have two third basemen. While I might trade one, I think both are fine pieces of the puzzle.

 
41Peter N.
ID: 42242140
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 14:53 		8.09 Delmon Young, OF, TAM

I thought about reaching for a closer here, but it just was not worth it in my opinion. Is it too early for Delmon Young? Possibly. However, I think he is more than major league ready and wonder why the Devil Rays waited so long to bring him up. He will bat in the middle of an every-improving Tampa Bay lineup. I expect solid RBI totals from him this year as he has one of the best batting leadoff in Carl Crawford. Another aspect that is attractive is his threat to run the bases. I expect him to explode onto the scene in his first full major league season. A SLG% around .500, 20 SBs, and 100 RBIs is not out of the question. I now have two dynamic threats in my outfield which was another goal of mine coming into this draft.
 
42Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 15:03 		for Bags:
8.10 Howie Kendrick, 2B, Ana

I had idea that I would need to draft my MI in the 7-8 range. I had a few of the young high upside players like Weeks, Kinsler, Barfield, & Kendrick slotted to go here. As a homer pick I wanted Kinsler but am very happy to get Kendrick.
 
43Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 15:05 		8.11 Pat Burrell, OF, Phi

I dropped back 6 spots in this round to get Felipe Lopez in round 7. At the time, I expected I’d get a power hitter (1B, 3B, or OF) in round 8, and figured that my list of acceptable candidates was deep enough to withstand the extra wait. It was.

Aside from a catcher (for which I’ll probably wait much longer), my other significant need is starting pitching, because I have none. That’s been my plan all along, and has been my approach in the past two years as well. Last year, I took Lackey in round 9, and Chris Young in round 12. Both were drafted much earlier this year, suggesting that I did pretty well with those choices last year. I also managed to pick up Jered Weaver as a free agent last year, and a second free agent (as yet undrafted) who served me well. Of course, having Papelbon and BJ Ryan last year gave me such an edge in the ratios that it would have been hard for any viable starter to screw things up too miserably. I doubt if my closers this year (Wagner and C. Cordero) will be as prodigious.

If I take a hitter now, then I’ll certainly start on pitching in either round 9 or 10. My list of acceptable starters isn’t overly deep, but it’ll do.

Pat Burrell was the guy at the top of my list. His career batting average is only .258, but his career on base average is more than 100 points higher. Thus, his value in this league is probably higher than many of the published cheat sheets would suggest. I’m looking for him to solidify my power stats, targeting 100+ RBI and a .500 slugging percentage, while getting on base in the .380s. Those stats make him the top hitter on my board right now. If he'd have disappeared, Adrian Gonzalez was my second choice.
 
44Dave R
Leader
ID: 13961611
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 17:28 		8.12 - Josh Barfield, 2B, CLE

It was becoming time to address filling 2B/3B needs. I had given thought to grabbing a 2B with my last pick but waited and watched a whole bunch fly off the board. I would have preferred Kinsler/Uggla/Freel or Weeks and they all disappeared.

Barfield was the next on my wish list. I preferred him over Kent as I would rather grab someone hopefully on the upswing rather than maybe the decline.

Time will tell how a change of leagues will affect Josh, hopefully for the better with the Indians offense. Looks like he may hit towards the bottom, which may diminish production. Hoping for 80 runs, 65 RBI's, 15-20 steals. OBP% may be an issue

 
45Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 17:29 		8.13 - Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, SD

After filling in the inner portion of my infield, my next priority was to balance out those picks with solid corner guys. It is no secret that the hot corner is its deepest ever this year, so all other things being equal, youth and the scarcer position moved me towards Adrian Gonzalez. I did have other 1B higher on my list, but their SB totals are what moved them up over A-gone. Since I have adequate speedsters already, I decided to take the guy with .900 OPS potential.
 
46Athletics Guy
ID: 281162612
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 18:07 		8.14 Edgar Renteria, SS, ATL

I had 2 players on my short list: Morgan Ensberg and Pat Burrell. Unfortunately, both of them were selected just a few picks before my turn came up. Burrell was the only outfielder I would have taken with this pick, so I had to go a different route. Edgar Renteria looked like a good fit for my team. He was one of the better MI's left and I needed some help with steals. Aside from Hanley Ramirez, the rest of my hitters might get me a total of 5 SBs. With Renteria, I get an additional 15-20 steals along with a possible 100 R. The only concern I have with Renteria is his inconsistency in OPS. I'm just hoping he can stay above .750 this season and not hurt me there.
 
47StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 18:10 		8.15 Mike Cameron, OF, SD

This was a very difficult pick to make and I ended up in a rush and went back to Plan A even though I had decided on Plan D. Plan B I pretty much ruled out, although Plan C I was still considering as well. So in other words, I really had no clue what to do as there were multiple ways I could have gone.

Count me among the managers that was interested in Lopez, but I still wouldn’t have drafted him that high and may not have drafted him had he made it back around to me again. I won’t post my thoughts on it now, but maybe at some point later. This pick really came down to it being the 8th round, hitting options are thinning out, and I still need 4 of + a DH. So while OF is deep, I don’t want to be chasing ‘prospect’ type players at all of my OF positions.

Cameron is one of those players that tends to be undervalued in drafts. He puts up consistent numbers and throws in 20+ SBs on top of it. He doesn’t have the highest obp but his slg is always good. I feel pretty safe that if I project 80 runs, 80 rbis, and 25 sb that he will deliver. Not gaudy stats by any means but definitely among the better options for a middle tier OF. I did look at some other hitter options, mostly Teahen, but even though I projected Teahen higher, I was afraid his concentration on learning to play the OF coupled with it being KC, could lead to some reduced stats from last year.
 
48Philsphan
Donor
ID: 301442416
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 18:18 		8.16 Brian Giles, OF, SD
I still have yet to pick a middle infielder, but there is nobody even close on my depth charts at either position at this point. Giles has intrigued me. There has been a lot of news about him in SD. I like the fact that he has changed his stance and done things to hopefully correct his downward slide. Yes he is older, but he is also slated to hit leadoff. His R and RBI may suffer, but I got him for his .400 OBP. Now that I pick him I read that he may get dealt. That may not be bad to get him out of Petco.
 
49Philsphan
Donor
ID: 301442416
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 18:20 		9.01 Bronson Arroyo, SP, CIN
Continuing my strategy load up on starters. Moving from the AL to the NL was the best thing that happened to this guy. If there is any proof that the AL is the superior league, Arroyo is Exhibit A imo. I expect similar numbers this year from him.

I had considered Verlander and Willis here, but I don’t want to take an AL pitcher quite yet. Their ERA’s are too high for my liking right now. And I can’t see Willis winning that many games for Florida. Arroyo just seemed to be the right choice here.
 
50StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 18:30 		9.02 Jeff Kent, 1B/2B, LAD

Well, I was afraid of that. I would have taken Freel had he made it back to me. Getting lots of SBs from 2B would be nice, but I did just see where Freel left the game Monday with a tight hamstring, just reinforcing how injury prone he really is, not to mention SB players as a whole.

I went back and read what I had been writing up as I went along. I had first thought about Kent back in round 6. When I decided to pick Cameron in round 8 I realized I should do something to help offset his lower obp and Kent fit that bill nicely. So rather than take the approach of getting sb from my MI position with Lopez or Freel (who were both gone by now anyway), I decided to take the other approach and go for as high of power numbers as you could expect from MI. I think with Kent I get 3rd tier 1B numbers at a thin 2B position. If nothing else I can plug him in at 1B and move Sheffield to the OF. Last year was pretty miserable for Kent due to a variety of injuries, but this year he is healthy, happy, and wants to play as many games as possible. I really see no reason he can’t approach 100 rbi’s, 95 runs, .360 obp, and slg over .500. Not many 2B are going to do that and this frees me up to trade Roberts later on if I’m so inclined. My projections for Kent that I based this pick on are actually lower than what I posted, but I still wanted him even then, so I should be pretty happy having him as long as he stays healthy and hasn’t hit a wall due to age.
 
51Athletics Guy
ID: 281162612
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 18:56 		9.03 Lyle Overbay, 1B, TOR
I can't believe it. StLCards did it to me again! I was ready to take Jeff Kent to fill up my last starting MI spot. Now I had to decide on either adding depth to my starting pitching or selecting my first outfielder. Looking over the available pitchers, I felt comfortable in waitng for the next round or so. As for outfielders, it didn't look like there was much left. Most of the best bats left were 1B and 3B. I had room for one more CI starter, so I picked Lyle Overbay. I have him projected for 80 R and 90 RBI with OPS around .850. His OBP should give my team a nice boost, as that is one of his strengths.
 
52Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 19:30 		9.04 - Alex Gordon, 3B, KC

If Gordon is as special as everyone says he is, this could be a bargain. That being said, I was hoping to trade down to later in the round as I am sure he wasn't on too many radar screens yet, but I felt sure he wouldn't make it back to my 10.13 pick. His biggest downside is the fact that he plays for KC, however Gordon should contribute positively in 5 categories for me. There is also some risk that he would not start the season in the majors, but all reports I have heard have indicated that he is a safe bet to begin the season with the big club.
 
53Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 07:45 		for Dave R:
9.05 Jose Valverde, RP, ARI
Since I spent a high draft pick on a closer ( Ryan ), it didn't seem practical not to try and grab another. There weren't many left that seemed to have " guaranteed " jobs, although at this juncture, "guaranteed" probably doesn't apply.

I felt Valverde was the " best of the rest ". Seemingly he has the talent to put it all together, whether he does is another matter. Last year he struck out an amazing 1.4 batters/ inning. If things fall right, I'm hoping for 30 saves.

Rotowire says " eventually he is going to have a Francisco Rodriguez year ". Maybe this is the year.

 
54Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 07:45 		for Flying Polack:
9.06 Stephen Drew SS ARI

Another agonizing pick! I really wanted to take a pitcher here, but I didn’t think any of them offered enough value. I considered Dontrelle Willis, but the amount of innings he’s thrown since 2002 scares me, as did the decrease in his K/rate and increase in BB/rate. I really wanted to take him.

I probably would have taken Alex Gordon, but he was snatched two picks before me. That left me consider a couple Arizona prospects, Stephen Drew and Chris Young. I decided on Drew because he’s already got a season under his belt, and he plays SS. I had Young rated higher, I’m hoping he’ll make it back to me in the 10th round.
 
55Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 07:46 		for Bags:
9.07 Mike Piazza C OAK

I wasn’t going to take a catcher this early but Piazza had fallen and was too good to pass up. The numbers Thomas had last year as the DH for the A’s were great. If Piazza as a catcher can come close to those numbers I will be in good shape.
 
56Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 07:46 		for Peter N.:9.08 Dontrelle Willis, SP, FLA
Willis just kept sliding and sliding and I couldn’t pass him up this time. Early surprise in this draft is the amount of starting pitchers that have slid. There are a few reasons to be concerned with Willis. His unorthodox delivery combined with the amount of innings he’s ate over the past two seasons might lead to an injury this year. I feel, however, that if he can stay healthy, he can be a top 15 pitcher. While I don’t expect him to put up his 2005 numbers, I still see him good for 15 wins, era around 3.4 and whip around 1.2. Sheets and Willis now give me a solid 1-2 punch.
 
57Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 07:47 		for blue hen:
9.09 Bob Wickman RP ATL
... sucks. And he's fat. But he showed that he can get the job done in Atlanta, and I could see him keeping the job the whole year. He's had two solid seasons in a row, and ranks among the MLB saves leaders in that time. I have a fantastic closer in K-Rod, and Wickman gives me a solid second. It's hard to win with just one closer (I had just Jenks for most of last year), but two might do it.

After I didn't get Valverde, Wickman was the obvious choice. But I did consider taking Ray Durham here, since Stephen Drew, Jeff Kent, and Edgar Renteria just went. Looking back, I probably should have. But it seems to be working out ok.

 
58Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 07:48 		for holt:
9.10 Mark Teahen 3B KAN
Considering his stats and projections, Teahen should have been off the board before now. I guess he hung around because he's a Royal and you kinda feel like a doofus when you draft a Royal. anyway, he never showed a lot of power in college or the minors, but it really started to develop last season (21 2b, 7 3b, 18 HR in 393 AB). he also stole 10 bases in 10 attempts - not bad. reports I've read on him speak highly of his speed and baserunning skills, so i see 20 sb's as being possible. couple that with his numbers of .357/.517 last year and I had no choice but to draft him here. sorry Tosh.

btw, he will be playing OF this season. extra position eligibility doesn't hurt his value any.

 
59Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 07:49 		for Tosh:
9.11 ~ Torii Hunter, OF, MIN

I have finally now realized that I have to expect the first guy on my queue to never be there. The draft stalled out for the night one pick before me, so I left a 2-man queue. The manager before me, Holt, already has a 3B. He needs a C, 1B, 2B, SS, MI and CI. There is no way that he’ll take a 3B. I feel so secure that I’ll get Teahen that I even labeled his jersey before bed. And when I wake up the next morning, Holt had taken Teahen! I didn’t need coffee after that shocking way to wake up.

I had decided on Torii Hunter as my #2 queue guy only because he is sitting atop my list as best player available. There’s really no reason he’s slipped this far. He should exceed his 3-year averages of 22 HR and 18 SBs assuming he returns to health. Hunter completely abandoned his plate patience in the second half last season in a quest for more power. He only took a walk 4% of his AB (11% the 1H). But he hit 19 of his 31 HRs during this time. I hope he finds a happy medium.
 
60Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 07:49 		9.12 Justin Verlander, SP, Det

Time to get started on my starters. Verlander’s ROY season last year was tarnished a bit by second half fatigue that produced a 4.54 ERA and a .300 BAA after the All Star break. In his first ML season he has shown the ability to be an ace and the ability to be a fantasy free agent. When I wait until the 9th round to select my first starter, I need to accept some risks, realizing that with upside potential comes downside risk. And that risk is undoubtedly why he’s still available in round nine.
 
61Building 7
ID: 571192610
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 08:29 		9.13 Joe Borowski, RP, CLE

There were only three closers left who were the current closer, by my calculations. This changes almost daily, though, at this time of year. I figured the Cleveland closer would get more saves than the KC or Pitt closer. Not necessarily true.

Plus, I'm not one to hover over by cell phone waiting for the latest alert that, X reliever stubbed his toe, and now Y, reliever will be getting saves. And you should log onto yahoo immediately and pick him up. I doubt, I'll be the first to do this in this league. I was not very good at it in AAA. Thus, I draft three closers and hope for the best. My best chance is to be watching the Astro's game live, and see someone being carted off on a stretcher. I think I could get on Yahoo before others are alerted via todays technology.
 
62KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 09:21 		9.14 Jhonny Peralta, SS, CLE
I emailed Guru about potentially trading one of his SS. That's about how much I was thrilled with this selection. Despite that, I'm actually quite okay with having Peralta on my team. As much as I'm hoping Uggla avoids a sophomore slump, I'm hoping 2006 was Peralta's sophomore (excluding some playing time in 2003) slump.

No matter what, I think Rotowire's projections are pretty much spot on: 79 RBI, 86 R, 1 SB, .799 OPS. If he gets those stats, I'm more than happy with this selection. If he exceeds those stats, into 2005 territory, I'll be ecstatic with this pick. I'm just hoping that he's focusing enough on defense to not get yanked, but not so much that he suffers any more offensively.
 
63KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 09:38 		for JTSERB:
9.15 A.J. Burnett, SP, TOR
Signed the big contract last year, but was hurt and never really got into the swing of things. I really dont like drafting pitchers from the AL EAST because they have to face the Yanks and Boston 38 times which could put a hamper on the ERA, but I felt with this pick i needed a SP and IMO Burnett had the most upside. If he stays healthy I expect and ERA in the Mid to high 3's 200 K.
 
64KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 09:38 		for filthy:
9.16 Ramon Hernandez, C, BAL
I set my queue this time to address some weaknesses, and for the first pick I got catcher out of the way. Being back in the AL suited Hernandez fine last year, and aside from a couple of injuries in his NL stint, he has had a pretty consistent career. Baltimore has actually assembled quite a good team this year and I think their whole offense should be somewhat of a force this year, similar to the season that they contended up to the allstar break. He might hurt my OBP and won't get me any steals, but I feel he will help me more than he harms me.

10.01, Corey Patterson, OF, CHC BAL
Second weakness addressed this time around is steals. Corey Patterson should be among the league leaders in steals if he doesn't revert back to his Cubs form. Speaking of which, I can't even believe this is the same player that flopped so hard for the Cubs. Moving to a new organization has sort of reignited his star potential, and I'm hoping he continues his improvement this season. He seems to working very hard, and maybe I can even hope that they teach him to take a walk once in a while.

 
66KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 09:39 		for JTSERB:
10.02 Tadahito Iguchi, 2B, CWS
Ozzie is going to bat him lower in the order this year which will bring up his offensive production because he doesn't have to worry about the duties of batting in the 2 hole. I needed a 2b and felt he was the best available at the time
 
67KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 09:41 		10.03 Ray Durham, 2B, SFO
It took me 20 minutes to come up with Ray Durham. His name was probably the fourth or fifth name I had gotten all the way to assigning a position to before backing out to type in another name. Most of the problem came in the similarities amongst the players and the other part came from where I felt I could get the players realistically; I didn't want to reach too far for this pick. The real deal-maker came when I looked at the Draft Grid and noticed how many people were short on MIers. If the pool of MIers was thin now, it was going to be even more thin by the time the draft got back around to me in Round 11.

So, that's when I decided Durham was my man. He's not going to have another breakout season and he's not going to be good for double-digit steals. Heck, he probably won't even be good for 140 games. BUT, I didn't draft him for any of that. I drafted him with the expectation that he'll put up about 80 RBI (hitting behind Bonds would make me very happy), 75 R, a handful of SB, and an .800+ OPS. If he can do all that, I'll love him forever. If not, I'll be looking at the FA list to fill in those other 22 games anyhow, so...
 
69Building 7
ID: 571192610
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 10:32 		10.04 Brandon Phillips, 2B, CIN

I'm allowed one hunch pick, and this is it. This guy seems to be streaky. Maybe he can figure things out a little more, and keep the good streaks going more often. Appears to be batting somewhere in the midst of the Cincy lineup. Should get a lot of runs and RBI's, although those are not categories I really look for. Since he plays 2B, I can now move Figgins to MI, or 3B or OF if I want. I was hoping S. Drew would fall to here, but he did not. I read where he bulked up a little over the winter. He has 4 HR's in spring training. Plus a really needed a MI, and they were going fast.
 
70Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 10:34 		10.05 Kevin Youkilis, 3B, Bos

I have no one at first, third or catcher. Now that the true boppers are gone, I think the list of comparable candidates at 1B is long enough to wait. I thought of picking up Russ Martin at C, and may still do that if he’s available next round.

Youkilis is near the top of my list of available hitters, and provides useful positional flex, with eligibility at 1B, 3B, or OF. I imagine I’ll use him at 3B, but this keeps more options open for the rest of the draft. He’s the first returnee from last year’s RIBC team, when I “stole” him in round 18. He might have lasted longer this year, but at this stage of the draft, picks can be volatile. (...if only the beginning of last year’s draft was a solid as the end, with Zimmerman in round 15, Youkilis in18, and Papelbon in 21. But I digress…)

I had a hunch about him last year, and it paid off nicely, as he ended up the 75th best hitter in the game (using our league framework and my ranking approach). His OBP is his chief strength, and will probably bat second in the Boston lineup this year. At age 27, he should be in his prime, - possibly offering some upside over last year, which was his first as an everyday player I’m going to stay with that hunch this year, even though in this round, I don’t think he represents exceptional value. Just solid value.
 
71Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 12:56 		10.06 ~ Adrian Beltre, 3B, SEA

Time to fill the 3B position. It’s 20 picks until my next turn, and there a number of teams that need a 3B or CI. Which one of us hasn’t been burned by Beltre at one time or another? For so long, he was a ‘future stud’ that just never materialized. After his monster 2004, he has regressed back to his previous levels. Batting second last season really turned things around for him. Maybe he’ll continue his 2nd half onto this year.

I took the “homer option” with Beltre … rather than Blalock or Encarnacion. I watch almost every single Mariner game on TV, and go to 10-15 a season. If you’re watching an M’s game, and hear a “Yo Adrian” from the stands … that’s me.
 
72Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 19:27 		for holt:
10.07 Marcus Giles 2B SDG
It wasn't too long ago that Giles was a 2nd-3rd rounder. based on last years numbers, this pick is a stretch, but I think he'll be a lot better than last year. joing his bro on the padres may be just the thing to bring back his A game.

"I'm just excited to start this '07 season and try to get back on track to the '03, '04, '05 days," Marcus Giles said. "Last year I fell off a little bit, but I'm sure we all have bad years in our career. Hopefully that's just my bad year, start over again, and here we go."

I still hadn't taken an MI yet, and Giles seemed like the best bet to provide decent OPS along with some steals. I'm thankful he was still around, otherwise I'd probably still be without a single MI. I guess I was planning to get guys like S.Drew, Renteria, Kendrick, and Kinsler but they went earlier than I was willing to draft them.

If Giles can produce his career #'s of .361 .448 and throw in 12-15 sb's then this is a good pick for me. If he plays as poorly as last year I'll be damn surprised.

 
73Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 19:28 		for blue hen:
10.8 Willy Taveras, CF, COL

... sucks. But he's got even more positives than Wickman. Houston may be a hitters' park, but Colorado really played it up last season, and Willy should score a lot of runs in front of Helton, Holliday, and Atkins. I'm also banking on some steals here. Taveras, along with Bay, Wells, and the soon-to-be-drafted Castillo and Burke, gives me a solid base in that department.

Because he sucks, I'd ordinarily worry about Willy losing playing time. But fortunately, he's a CF with good defense, so I think he'll get his steals even if he doesn't hit.
 
74Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 19:28 		for Peter N:
10.09 Armando Benitez, RP, SFO

I almost took Wickman in the last round, but preferred to get a solid number 2 pitcher. In the end, I get Benitez who I value about the same as Wickman. He appears to be healthy this year and is closing for an ever-improving Giants team. I could see Benitez posting a save total near 30. It’s never good when your closer actually hurts your ERA and WHIP, but that is the price you pay drafting a 2nd closer this late in the draft.
 
75Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 19:29 		for Flying Polack:
10.11 Randy Johnson SP ARI

I really wanted to take Chris Young here, but I needed to start working on my pitching staff. At this point, of the teams picking between my 10th and 11th round selections, only Philsphan had 3 starters. I figured the SP pool could shrink quickly and I had to take the chance of Chris Young making it another round. Obviously that didn’t happen.

Johnson’s 2006 numbers weren’t as bad as most people believe. His K/9 was 7.5 and his WHIP was just 1.24. Actually, looking at his peripheral stats I can’t figure out why his ERA rose by 1.21 points. The move to the desert should help his back and the move to the NL should help his ERA. I felt like a 10th round pick was a fair price to pay for the bounceback season.
 
76Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 19:30 		for Dave R:
10.12 Javier Vazquez SP CWS
I was actually looking to fill 3B here and had targeted Encarnacion, Tracy or Blalock. As the draft unfolded I felt reasonably comfortable that one would make it back to me.

Seems conventional wisdom to wait on starters, but I really like Vazquez and remember the way he finished last season. Seems a lock for 200+ innings, recording around 180K's and hopefully 15 wins.

After an adjustment in mechanic towards the end of last season, Vazquez had 5 starts with 10 or more K's. Hopefully that trend will continue.

 
77Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 19:31 		for Trip:
10.13 Chris Young OF ARI

Think Delmon Young (8.09), but playing in a better lineup. I decided to forgo pitching again for another guy who can contribute positively in all 5 categories. As I had hoped to trade down so that I would have a lower 10th round pick to grab him here, I am delighted that he made it back to me.
 
78Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 19:31 		for Athletics Guy:
10.14 Jorge Posada C NYY
I'm not a real big fan of catchers in fantasy baseball. In the RIBC format, I have mostly settled for catchers after the 20th round. However, there's been one catcher I've been willing to take in the middle rounds. And that man is Jorge Posada. While he's not in the same league as Mauer or Martinez, I feel he has the best value among catchers when you take his draft position into account. Posada's a safe bet for 80-90 RBIs in that Yankees lineup. You can't really say that about many catchers.
 
79StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 19:35 		10.15 Salmon Torres, RP, Pit

One thing I have not been doing during this draft is checking how other drafts have gone and where people have been taken. I’ve seen a few people mention where other drafts have taken players, or what their total ADP was so by looking at this information I may be able to gain some small advantage? This is especially true for people I might consider to be sleepers to see if they really are!

As we get farther into the draft it is almost becoming time to discard the cheat sheets and draft based on knowledge or gut feelings.

Had Benitez and Dotel stayed on the board I would not have made this pick. This was the first time I really felt backed into a corner with nowhere to go. Torres is the last closer on the board with a defined role. Earlier when I took Kent I was thinking I probably should have grabbed Valverde there. My initial thoughts about closers were to just take Nathan and then try to grab another decent closer later in the draft when the value was right. That opportunity never emerged or maybe it did and I just wasn’t smart enough to see it. A few rounds back though I did a quick qualitative analysis that seemed to say I should care about saves after all. I didn’t crunch any numbers or anything so most likely it is just my ingrained thoughts telling me to take a closer, along with a little voice planted in my head by Guru from his post saying that if you’re going to take one closer then you have to take two! I kept trying to ignore it, but it just wouldn’t go away. Will Valverde be any better than Torres? Probably not enough to worry about it as they both have some upside and both have more risk. My feeling is that taking Torres now is going to be better than chasing the closer of the day on bad teams during the season.

This was actually another tough round for me as many of my options that I was sure would be available went off the board and none bigger than Randy Johnson, though maybe it is just as well to avoid an all Geritol team.
 
80Philsphan
Donor
ID: 301442416
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 19:58 		10.16 Michael Cuddyer, OF MIN
I had every intention of picking either Freddie Sanchez or Orlando Hudson here. But after seeing the run of 2B’s that went this round, and seeing how many there are still to get, and also seeing that MI’s are still way down my productivity sheet, I couldn’t ignore a 90/90 guy with a potential .850 OPS. So we’ll wait until Round 12 and see who is available then for my 2B and SS.

 
82Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 15:22 		Continue for rounds 11-15