Forum: base
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Subject: RIBC 2007: Draft Rationales (rounds 16-20)

  Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 15:12
Rationales for rounds 1-5

Rationales for rounds 6-10

Rationales for rounds 11-15
 
1filthy
ID: 172581511
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 15:22 		16.01, Aaron Hill, MI, TOR
My OBP had been taking a hit recently, and I always have room for more MI depth. Once May started last year, he OBP'ed at around .375, he just couldn't do much wrong. He doesn't do much else except hit, no power or speed, but if he can continue his progression none of that will matter. Having a year of experience at second should ease the progression along a little as well.
 
2KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 354152921
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 16:51 		16.02 Kelly Johnson, OF, ATL
Placeholder
 
3KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 354152921
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 16:52 		16.03 Jose Contreras, SP, CWS
I've never been the biggest fan of Contreras, but there's no denying he's a quality pitcher. Having anchored my pitching staff with Carpenter, Putz, Street, and Shields, adding guys like Bedard, Bonser, and Contreras, all of whom are more likely to be near a 4.00 ERA than a 3.00 ERA, doesn't hurt me that much. So, with that in mind, Contreras is a good fit for my team. He's not a huge strikeout pitcher, but he's effective enough to win. His 14 projected wins from Rotowire are what I picked him up for and if he achieves that, I won't complain.
 
4Building 7
ID: 571192610
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 18:03 		16.04 Roger Clemens, SP, HOU

I figure he's worth a gamble here. Not really sure he's even going to play. My guess is Houston.
Then if he does play, it will only be for 4 months. Then he has to do really well when/if he does pitch to justify carrying him for 2 months. I thought 4 months of Roger was better than 6 months of these other guys. I carried Derek Lee most of the year last year, so I'm used to having a dead spot on the roster. It's not easy finding K's in the 15th-16th rounds, but I am happy with what I was able to come up with.

I now have 9 hitters and 7 pitchers. This is about right where I would want to be. I can take the best player available with my next pick(s).
 
5Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 19:33 		16.05 Ryan Shealy, 1B, KC

To round out my hitting lineup, I need a corner infielder and an outfielder (and a 2B plugin until Lopez gets his eligibility). Scanning down the list of available hitters, I see more comparable outfielders available than cornermen.

The upside for Shealy is that he should be an everyday player this year, is currently healthy, and at age 27, should be reaching his peak productivity. The downside, of course, is that he plays in KC, which can’t help his run and RBI potential. But that’s probably one reason that he’s still available here. I have his consensus projections at 66-80-.340-.485, and those assume an average of only 500 PA, which implies less than full time. I think those numbers are OK for this pick, but if he does get to play everyday, then I think he represents excellent value, regardless of his team affiliation.
 
6Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 19:57 		16.06 ~ Ty Willingham, 1B/2B/3B/OF, TAM

Willingham appears to have solidified his position as a full-time player (probably at 1B), will be batting cleanup for Tampa Bay (behind Crawford, Baldelli, and Young), and is eligible at four positions. That is reason enough for me to draft him. Now hopefully, he’ll keep that full-time job.
 
7blue hen
ID: 472431014
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 21:47 		For holt
16.07 Jim Edmonds, OF, STL
No reason to let him slip further. yeah he's injury prone and in the twilight of his career but I think he's still got some gas left in the tank. .350/.470 is reasonable to expect, along with good run production (when he plays). if he can stay healthy maybe even .375/.500. I can hope anyway.

I also had my eye on Wiggington here but tosh took him right before me. maybe it's best that I got edmonds. wiggington's stats from last year seem a bit preposterous. we'll see.

 
8blue hen
ID: 472431014
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 21:51 		16.08 Doug Davis, SP, ARI

As I said in the Lilly comment, I'd been looking at Davis for my last pick. With both Lilly and Davis in tow, along with Hamels and Cain, I have four strikeout pitchers, all playing on decent teams, who should have great seasons. Arizona's ballpark scares me a little, but it has hosted more Cy Young winners than any other park in recent years. Davis has had a great K-rate and I expect about 180 strikeouts from him. Rotowire projects 177 but I'm optimistic. I think his ratios will survive.

As with the Lilly pick, I might have taken Jim Edmonds with this pick, but Holt made the decision for me. Also, a buddy alerted me to an Edmonds injury alert, but I think he'll be pretty healthy, and a steal for Holt.

 
9Peter N.
ID: 490381517
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 22:05 		16.09 Chien-Ming Wang, SP, NYY

I know why he dropped. His strikeout rate is pathetic, but I can't believe he fell this far. Wang finds a way to get the job done and was very reliable for the Yankees last year. I think we are looking at a potential 20 game winner this year. He's at that magical age of 27 and I look for him to improve on a solid season last year.
 
11Bags
ID: 2500120
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 22:14 		16.10 Joel Pinero, RP, BOS

Keeping with my tradition of taking a closer who could be out of a job by June, Pinero is my kind of guy. I will need as many saves as early as possible because I doubt I will be getting any after the All-Star break.
 
12Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 23:16 		for Flying Polack
16.11 - Milton Bradley, OF, OAK

The two players I was looking at here were Rafael Soriano and Milton Bradley. The decision to take Bradley mainly had to do with likely options for my 17th round pick. There are several other pitchers I’m comfortable with in the 17th round, but I feel like Bradley is the best hitter remaining.

Bradley is making a return visit to the Polacks, he’s a player I usually wind up with. I think he’s often undervalued because he has a reputation around the league for not being so nice. Well personality doesn’t count in fantasy baseball. He’s struggled with injuries the past couple season, but they aren’t the lingering type. I expect double digit steals and both an OB% and SLG% that have a net positive impact. There isn’t much performance risk here, just a bit of injury risk. I can live with that in the 16th round.
 
13Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 23:17 		for DaveR

16.12 - Emil Brown, OF, KC

Needed to go for hitting here and Brown seemed a perfect fit for my team. Hitting isn't a problem for Brown, defense is, hopefully his glove won't relegate him to a platoon situation.

Emil was KC's RBI leader last year with 81 and scored 77 runs with a fine OPS of .815. A slight improvement is hoped for and that his bat keeps him in the lineup. He also could swipe 10 or so bases.
 
14Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 23:18 		16.13 - Matt Murton, OF, CHC

It's so nice to see baseball on again. I was flipping through the channels and saw a preseason Cubs game on and decided to pass on basketball for an hour and I was reminded how nice it is to see spring on its way...and what an offense the Cubs now have. Murton was on my radar before this point, but this was definitely what pulled the trigger. I also do like my players young. I had the youngest RIBC team last year, but may have set a new record - through 17 rounds my average player is 25.8 years old...the next youngest is Holt at 27.9, while Philsphan is a geriatric 31.9. Statistical rationale...the usual, Murton should be a positive contributor across the board.
 
15Athletics Guy
ID: 281162612
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 23:31 		16.14 Brad Wilkerson, OF, TEX

Emil Brown should have been my guy here. Unfortunately, he was taken 2 picks earlier. I still only had 1 OF, so that wasn't going to change my plans of taking a 2nd OF here. I decided to go with a high risk/high reward pick. If Brad Wilkerson can get back to his old form, he should be a great contributor to my team. His career OBP has been 100 pts higher than his batting average. All he has to do is hit around .250 and I should be fine here. That should be a pretty easy task considering where he's playing. Heck, even Sammy Sosa can hit in Texas!
 
16StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 00:25 		16.15 Casey Kotchman, 1B, LAA

KKB took my sleeper in Wes Helms. I think he is primed for a breakout year and is going to far surpass his projections. I really thought I could get him, which is why I passed on Duncan earlier. My plan was to put one of them at 1B or CI or DH. Not sure what to do now. Still too far away to plan at this point the way people are flying off the board. Now that I see all the 1B eligible players going off the board I have no choice but to take another 1B eligible player here. I really don’t want to play Kent at 1B so if Sheff gets hurt I would be in trouble with no other option. I waited to long on Helms, but even still I thought I would get Edmonds at the least since he is hurt right now, but should have known Holt would go homer on me and take him!

Kotchman is still an attractive breakout player now that he has his case of mono behind him. Not guaranteed a starting job, but as of now I don’t see how they could go any other direction. You can take last years numbers for Kotchman and toss them out the window. If you look to his partial year in 2005 you get much better numbers where he had .352 obp and .484 slg. I thought about taking Gomes here but Kotchman was really the last 1B that I would want so figured not to risk it.

 
17Philsphan
Donor
ID: 301442416
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 09:17 		16.16 Jacque Jones, OF, CHC
I drafted him in the 19th round last year in AAA, and he did me well. It appears I traded him to Filthy at some point, but I can’t remember who I got for him. He was the top player on my depth chart for this pick, so it looks like the stars are aligned for his return. If he gives me close to last year’s numbers (70/80/10/.330/.500) I will be ecstatic. My projections for him are not quite as high this year, but I think he is a good value pick here.

17.01 Jorge Julio, RP, ARI
No way I get this guy if I don’t read some of the latest Rotoworld news this afternoon saying the D’backs are shopping him around. Suddenly, if Linebrink and Julio get traded I am in the hunt in Saves. If not, I think he steals a few saves because I don’t think Valverde is the answer for Arizona either. So he is worth it to me here.

If I didn’t already have 4 starters tucked away I don’t think I could have afforded to speculate like this. So I think this is a good risk-reward pick right here
 
18StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 09:26 		17.02 Johnny Gomes, OF, TB

I’m hoping to get Gomes here. He is healthy again and could have a tremendous year with good overall power numbers. At this point in the draft I could be getting a pretty good value here. We’ll see. He’s at the right age to have a breakout season and as long as he stays healthy could surprise. I really liked his .obp and slg numbers if nothing else. Throw in 75 runs and 75 rbis and I’ll be happy.
 
19Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 10:29 		for Athletics Guy
17.03 - Chris Duffy, OF, PIT

Chris Duffy is one of my top sleepers this season. I might have waited til around the 20th round to select him. But the way the draft was going, somebody probably would have snatched him up by then. Also, I didn't see any players left who had the basestealing potential that Duffy had. If he manages to hold on to a full-time role, I can see him getting 35+ SB. That might be enough to put me near the top of the league in that category.
 
20Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 10:32 		17.04 - Rafael Soriano, RP, ATL

"Bob Wickman sucks". Rafael Soriano doesn't. He's the best reliever on my board and while he may not be bringing in the saves, quality guys like Soriano will certainly bring my pitching ratios down. He should also contribute over a K/inning.
 
21Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 13:47 		17.05 Jason Jennings SP Hou

Thanks again Trip. Hoped to grad Rafael Soriano here. Jennings was still around, as were a whole bunch of average catchers, so.....

Jennings had a fine season last year with 142 K's and a 3.75 Era and 1.380 WHIP, in Coors. Unfortunately that translated into only 9 wins. While a move to Houston and Minute Maid Park might not improve the ratios, the Astros might help him to more wins. Hoping for similar numbers as last year but 13-15 W's.
 
22Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 13:49 		17.06 Oliver Perez, SP, Pit
I originally targeted Rafael Soriano for this pick, but I’m not sure I actually would have taken him. I was going to take him with my 15th and 16th round picks as well but found better options the longer I debated.

Once Soriano was picked I didn’t see any relief pitchers worth taking. I thought about gambling on the Marlins or Rays closer situation, but I’d rather take a chance with Perez. If he strikes it big I can always trade him for a closer.

I have two hitting positions left to fill, MI and CI. There are still plenty of options out there for me. The one player I seriously considered here was Tulowitzki. I can’t find a site that officially proclaimed him the starting SS and also most of the projections have him hitting 7th. I didn’t want to give up Perez upside for that. If Tulowitzki had already won the job or was projected to hit higher in the lineup I probably would have taken him.
 
23Bags
ID: 2500120
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 14:06 		17.07 Kevin Millwood, SP, TEX

I wanted to grab another starter and had thought about O. Perez here. I think Millwood will have abetter year this year than last. At the very least I can start him on all of his away games. Last year he had a 3.74 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 90 SO in 113 innings. Nice numbers away from the Ballpark. Also a bit of a homer pick.
 
24StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 14:08 		for Pete

17.08 Greg Maddux, SP, SDG

Here's to hoping Maddux has one more good season left in him. When looking at the remaining starting pitchers on the board, Maddux's WHIP stood out. It's hard to find a guy this late with a WHIP expected around 1.250. He's also in a pitcher friendly park in San Diego. That certainly won't hurt him. The savvy vet still knows how to get the job done. I'm expecting solid stats out of him and now feel like I have a solid starting 5 pitchers.
 
25Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 14:29 		for BlueHen

17.9 Taylor Tankersley, RP, FLA

When it's said and done, I can see Tankersley emerging from from mess in Florida's bullpen. We hear a new name every day, but I have much more faith in the guy with a bit of Major League experience and good rates last season, especially when you compare him to [undrafted], who hasn't pitched above AA, or to [undrafted], who was a journeyman over in that other league.
 
26holt
ID: 3611111522
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 15:06 		17.10 Troy Tulowitzki SS COL
I can't go into the season with only Crosby at SS. with the possible exception of Betemit, Tull was the only one left who had any prayer of actually being a decent hitter. There's a lot of hype surrounding him. The next Ripken??? I seriously doubt it, but I'll trust that the scouts have a clue and that he's at least decent. in rd 17, worth a shot anyway. hoping for an .800 OPS, but not really expecting it. afraid he might whiff too much.
 
27Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 15:21 		17.11 ~ Bob Howry, RP, CHC

At this point, I have 4 starting pitchers and one closer. There have been a number of very good set-up guys taken (Shields, Wheeler, Linebrink) that all backup solid & reliable closers. Howry has ERA & WHIP numbers in line with RPs chosen before him, and is probably first in line to take over if Ryan Dempster falters. One thing to worry about however, is that Howry only converted five of nine closing opportunities last season. Who knows how short a leash Lou Piniella will have on Dempster, but I’m willing to take a chance.
 
28Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 15:54 		17.12 Andre Ethier, OF, LAD

I’ve been eyeing Ethier for a few rounds, and think I’d better move now. Last year he batted .365/.477 in spite of a terrible September. He should be the everyday left fielder for the Dodgers, as his OPS was virtually the same against lefties as righties. At age 24, he should have tremendous upside. He hasn’t shown much power yet this spring, although he is batting .400 so far. Average projections are 67-68-.360-.470; I’m hoping for better.
 
29Building 7
Sustainer
ID: 171572711
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 16:55 		17.13 Tom Glavine, SP, NYM

I had Maddux, Oliver Perez, and Glavine on a short list of starters. Glavine still remained so I grabbed him as my 4th starter. He has long streaks of being good or long streaks of being bad. I doubt he will last all year on my team. Better at home. Good at Wins, average at ERA and WHIP. Not good at K's. That's why 268 people were picked ahead of him.

Whenever I see him pitch, he throws it about 12 inches outside and the catcher sets up way outside and it goes straight in his mitt, and the umpire calls it a strike because the catcher doesn't have to move his mitt. Or that's what the announcers say. If it's not a strike, he'll throw it 11 inches outside and keep creeping inside until the umpire starts calling them strikes. Even though they are still 6 inches outside, they look closer than the other ones and they are going straight into the mitt. He gets away with this every time. At least now he will be getting away with it for my team.
 
30KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 354152921
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 18:54 		17.14 Casey Blake, OF, CLE
[All written after selection of Blake]
This is the part of the RIBC draft that I typically find to be the most interesting. There are mini-runs here and there and it's never as straight-forward as people filling in their rosters; there's always enough managers adding players at spots they already have depth at to keep you guessing. Oh, I LOVE it! Seriously. That's partially while this will be one of my longer rationales, so indulge me.

With this pick, I had three directions in mind: Iwamura (high risk/high reward), a pitcher, or an OFer. I'll explain each...

Iwamura has struggled during Spring Training, but there's no denying his nice OBP. Honestly, if he has a starting job and can come close to his Japanese OBP, he has value in this league; far more than a typical 5 x 5 league. Still, he's struggled in ST and will have the Japanese Media Albatross all year.

The selection of a pitcher presents an interesting dilemma at this point in time. I'm going to divulge my strategy for my Round 19 pick now because the pick will have been made by the time this is "printed." As things stand, the remaining starting pitchers left offer Wins at a correspondingly high ERA/WHIP and IP. Thus, my strategy will be to get a high-W reliever with my 19th round pick. Currently, I project to have about 950 IP with my roster. That leaves me 400 IP to fill in. If I can partially fill that in with high-W, low-ERA, low-WHIP relivers, I can keep my low ratios while getting a higher return in Ws (for value in terms of ERA/WHIP) than the starters left will offer. Plus, this allows me to look for SP help throughout the year, which is one of the things I enjoy doing most during the season (far more than hitters at least!).

And then there's OF. Pickings are getting slim and the main guys on my list were Ethier (thanks, Guru!), Blake, and Jenkins. I know most people are avoiding Jenkins because of his horrendous (by Jenkins standards) 2006 and because of some questions about a platoon, but the superstitious amongst us will note that this is an even-numbered year and take note that Jenkins seems to have an inferno lit under his rump in Spring Training. I pretty much discounted Jenkins early because I figured I could get him later if I was still inclined to take him, so that left me with Ethier and Blake. When Guru took Ethier, I went back to Blake vs. Jenkins. Similar age and stats projections made me go with Blake because of what seems to be assured playing time, a good spot in the order (#5 it seems), and possible 3B eligibility (always good for potential injury filling).

I took a quick peek at the guys behind me and hoped they wouldn't bolster their 3B/CI spots and thought I could get Iwamura in the 18th round and decided to stick with my Round 19 plan for a pitcher and went with Blake. Realistically, I'm expecting similar numbers to 2006 (68 RBI, 63 R, 6 SB, .835 OPS) and if he achieves that, he'll have a spot in my lineup all year long.

Here's to Iwamura being available next round and my Round 19 plan falling into place.
 
31StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 18:59 		for Jtserb

17.15 Jon Garland SP CWS

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32filthy
ID: 522181915
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 19:03 		17.16, Trot Nixon, OF, CLE
Early indications are that Nixon will be batting second in the Indians order between Sizemore and Hafner I believe. Very underrated in my mind, and should get a chance to put up some real nice numbers early on.

18.01, Mike Sweeney, UTIL, KC
Could this be the year he can finally stay on the field semi-regularly?? Probably not, but it is the last year of a contract so he might have some added incentive to give his all.

 
33KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 354152921
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 19:07 		18.02 Dustin Pedroia 2B BOS
Placeholder
 
34KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 354152921
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 19:08 		18.03 Akinori Iwamura, 3B, TAM
As I mentioned in my Blake novel, I was targeting Iwamura with this pick. Sure, he plays for TAM and there's a huge question mark about his making the transition from Japan and he's not had a good spring and he's got the Japanese Media Albatross all over him and on and on and on.

Still, he's a career .366 OBP in 4014 PA in Japan. I don't know that he'll be able to bring all of his .519 SLG with him, but if he can post a .350 OBP and .500 SLG, that's a .850 OPS guy in the 18th round and I'll take it. Very high risk, very high reward, in my opinion. If he achieves his .850 OPS, he'll be in my CI or UTL slot all year long.
 
35Building 7
ID: 571192610
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 20:01 		18.04 Luke Scott, OF, HOU

Luuuuuuuuuuuuk. Something to do with Star Wars. This guy was out of his mind last summer, hitting .400 for awhile. He'll probably platoon for awhile, but at least he's left-handed. Thought he might go earlier, so let's see what happens.
 
36Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 20:29 		18.05 Pat Neshek, RP, Min

What the hey! I’ve been burned in the past by picking up a “sure thing” middle reliever only to have him falter. At least I’m getting Neshek in round 18, where the risk seems worth it. He’s been the highest ranked pitcher on my sheet for several rounds. My starting staff is going to be mediocre at best, so I’ll need my bullpen to do yeoman work. Neshek is unproven, but with a K/IP rate of 1.43 last year, he has something working for him. I’m hoping for solid contributions in Ks and ratios, with an occasional vultured win - and maybe even a save, if Nathan has a busy week.
 
37Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 20:55 		18.06 ~ Justin Duchscherer, RP, OAK

Like my last pick (Howry), Duchscherer is a worthy closer-in-waiting behind the sometimes fragile Huston Street. After displaying mediocre skills in 2004, Duchscherer has posted elite numbers over the last two years, cutting his walks in half and increasing his strikeout rate considerably. But for the second straight season, Duchscherer is battling tendinitis in his triceps, just above the elbow. He missed 47 days last season with the same ailment in the same location. But as I make this pick, he is throwing and might make his season debut in the next couple days.
 
38holt
ID: 590581711
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 21:07 		18.07 Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B SDG
Thought for sure he'd be gone before now. I already have Wright and Teahen but it doesn't matter. I think Kouzmanoff is going to be great. he has consistently dominated at every level (college up through AAA). in AA last year his numbers were .449/.660(.389 average), then he moved up to AAA and put up these #'s: .409/.647(.353 average). I don't need to rely on him as a starter, but if he does break through this season I'm glad to have him on my team.
 
39Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 21:25 		for Blue Hen
18.08 - Seth McClung, RP, TB

McClung's a little safer as a closer than Tankersley, but could struggle with the ratios. I am not scared of taking a Tampa closer - Danys Baez had some good times there. If McClung reels off a few saves, he could have some good trade value, and in the 18th round that's important.

More importantly, I can't think of anybody selected after McClung for about two rounds that even comes close. My next choices were Varitek and Eckstein, although Bartlett is almost at that level. In other words, this was the perfect place to take McClung. Now he just has to go out and perform.
 
40Peter N.
ID: 490381517
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 22:04 		18.09 Kenny Lofton, OF, TEX

I wanted to fill my last outfield spot with a speedster. Enter Kenny Lofton. He still has the wheels even with his age. I also like the fact that he'll be batting leadoff in Texas. I'm expecting a steals total in the mid 20s, but over 30 is not out of the question. My hitters overall lacked speed, but Lofton should boost that up nicely.
 
41Bags @ work
ID: 35237921
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 22:55 		18.10 Gary Matthews,OF,LAA

I need hitters in a big way. Matthews will be a leadoff hitter and play full time. You can't ask for much more in the 18th round. Did the Angels overpay for Mattews? Hell yes! But, I don't think he will a bad player for them this year. A couple of players that I had wanted here were Kouzmanoff & Iwamura.
Oh well. Go HGH!
 
42Athletics Guy
ID: 281162612
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 23:49 		18.11 Omar Vizquel, SS, Sfo

Well, I almost took Omar Vizquel in the 14th round instead of Curtis Granderson. Getting him in the 18th round was a pretty good value, right? After seeing Pedroia and Tulowitzki picked I decided it was time to finish off my middle infield. I looked hard at Wilson Betemit here, but his playing time is still uncertain.

Omar had a great year last year; he’s also in the last year of his contract and would like an extension. It’s never bad to have a player in his contract year. If he has a positive impact in runs, SB and OBP% I’ll consider this a successful pick.
 
43Athletics Guy
ID: 281162612
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 23:49 		for Dave R:
18.12 Jason Bartlett SS MIN
I really wanted to grab a MI at this point and fully expected that I would wind up with Omar Vizquel, until Flying Polack snared him with the pick before.

Bartlett may be a reach at this point in the draft... he lacks power, but a good eye at the plate should help his OBP. Hopefully he can throw in a dozen or so steals and score 70 runs

 
44Athletics Guy
ID: 281162612
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 23:49 		for Trip

18.13 - Cla Meredith, RP, SD

Meredith posted an amazing 0.706 WHIP and 1.06 ERA last year. If he can come anywhere close to that in '07, he can move me more than a couple of spots in the pitching ratios.
 
45Athletics Guy
ID: 281162612
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 23:51 		18.14 Randy Winn, OF, SF

I decided to fill my 4th OF spot here by taking Randy Winn. I'm hoping for a .750+ OPS season along with 15 SBs. Basically, I expect him to be a 5-tool player on a Mike Cameron-level with much less power. That doesn't sound very good, but I'll take it. Consider him a placeholder til I pick up someone better off the FA or one of my upcoming picks surprises me.
 
46StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 00:27 		18.15 Ken Griffey, OF, CIN

Left my rationale at work but this is an easy one anyway. Injuries are the only reason he is still available. Playing RF might help, but doubtful. Still getting over a broken hand and hasn't even played yet this spring. I figure that I will take what he can give while he does play. The longer the better, but will need to save a spot for a backup.
 
47Philsphan
Donor
ID: 301442416
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 00:50 		18.16 Jorge Cantu, 2B, TB
At this point I am feeling a need to get my catcher. However, only 4 teams are without one, and I will accept whomever is left. So I will forego a catcher this time around. I’ve also only gone one set of picks without getting a pitcher. I have considered that an advantage, but now that most everyone has caught up or surpassed me regarding SP’s, I’m finding myself a bit vulnerable now. But I have a list of 4-5 deep sleepers that I am confident will last a few more rounds as well.

I needed a B/U MI. Cantu had been on my radar for several rounds now, and much like with Orlando Hudson I was somewhat surprised that he was still available. His stock dropped pretty hard after last year’s disappointment, but I am willing to risk it with his upside in Round 18. If he stays healthy I see no reason why he can’t give me 90 RBI and an OPS close to .800.

19.01 Aaron Rowand, OF, PHI
My first homer pick. I fell in love with this guy’s game since his rookie year with the Sox, and was very pleased when Philly got him for Thome. I think his injuries last year were flukes and he gets it back on track this year with the 2007 World Champs. I project 70/70, 10-20 SB and an OPS in the .780-.800 range.
 
48Athletics Guy
ID: 281162612
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 00:55 		for StLCards

19.02 Dustin Hermanson, RP, CIN

I had considered taking a MR although was leaning away from it since most of the decent ones were gone. I don't really feel that a MR gives you enough unless they get saves. Trying to predict wins from a MR is pretty tough, so unless they get over 50IP, their impact may not be felt. I had read some reports near the beginning of spring training suggesting that Hermanson would be the best suited to close in Cincy if he was healthy in spring training. The first reports I saw said his velocity was down, but now reports are saying he is the front runner. Having a closer in Cincy doesn’t thrill me, but if he does become the closer, that could really help my saves category which is a bit thin now with Torres as my #2. This late in the draft he is worth a gamble. I had planned on taking Capps to back up Torres and wasn't too happy to see him go off the board later, but Hermanson gives me more upside anyway.
 
49Athletics Guy
ID: 281162612
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 00:56 		19.03 Jose Vidro, 2B, SEA

Jose Vidro was the best 2B available on my list and I didn't have one yet. So it was a no-brainer. I just didn't want to take my chances with , and . You get the point. His numbers have steadily dropped over the last 4 seasons, looking nothing like the All-Star he used to be. Hopefully for me, the trend ends this season.
 
50Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 08:05 		for Blue Hen
19.04 (via trade) Jason Varitek, C, BOS

As we moved up the chain, I noticed that Dave R. and Philsphan still didn't have catchers, and Varitek was still around, miles ahead of my next ranked catcher. I offered Mach to trade up but we wanted another upgrade later. I almost considered that, but then Trip accepted the offer without the future upgrade. Not sure if Dave R. was planning to take Varitek, but I am certainly glad to have him here. He's struggled, but when he hits, he hits well.
 
51Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 10:05 		for Dave R:
19.05 Nelson Cruz OF TEX
I had been eyeing Cruz for a couple of rounds. Every indication is he will be a starter in the OF for Texas. In less than a full season last year in AAA, he smacked 20 HR's, drove in 73 runs, stole 17 bases and had an eye popping OPS of .906.

So how does that translate to the big show. Time will tell but if he comes close to Rotowires projections of 80 RBI's, 72 runs, 15 SB's and an OPS of .822, I would be thrilled.

 
52Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 10:06 		19.06 Brian Wilson, RP, Sfo
I expect Armando Benitez to get traded. He’s involved in rumors to Boston, Seattle, and Florida. When rumors are that persistent it usually seems like where there is smoke, there is fire. I don’t know much about Wilson other than he’s 25 and averaged about a K/9 innings in the minors. Rotowire says “the Giants believe Wilson has the demeanor to immediately step into the closer’s role.” Hopefully I can pick up 10 to 15 saves from him and avoid last place in saves.

I almost took Xavier Nady to finish of my hitting lineup; he’s had a weird intestinal ailment during spring training that scared me a bit. There are still 4 or 5 1B/3B that I’m comfortable with. I thought about Adam Loewen here too, he’s been lights out in spring training; I’ll probably grab him in the 20th round if he’s still available.
 
53Peter N.@TTU Library
ID: 1423209
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 11:18 		for Bags

19.07 Sammy Sosa, OF, TEX
Phil Nevin is the reason I took Sosa here. At some point last year I had Nevin on my team because he was going to be the Rangers 4 or 5 hitter. Sosa is Nevin this year but with a better track record. I think I already know how this will turn out. I hate this pick.
 
54Peter N.@TTU Library
ID: 1423209
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 11:21 		19.08 Mark Derosa, 2B/3B/SS/OF, CHC

I figured it was time to grab a middle infielder at this point and there is not much left out there. Derosa stepped up nicely for Texas last year and got rewarded when he signed a substanial contract with the Cubs. He is there starting 2nd basemen without question. I'm not expecting too much out of Derosa, but his position flexibility could come in handy as the season progresses. I'd feel fortunate if he didn't kill my OBP.
 
55Trip
Leader
ID: 057721710
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 13:07 		19.09 - Matt Lindstrom, RP, FLA

I saw no reason not to swap with BlueHen, and when his offer came through he promised he wasn't taking a guy not in my queue I figured he was going for a catcher. There were about 6 middle relievers I was considering with my pick at the time, so I figured why not. If the season started today, Lindstrom would have the closer's job.
 
56holt
Leader
ID: 057721710
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 13:08 		19.1 Kazuo Matsui 2B COL
another speculative pick. Matsui never got in his comfort zone in NY. he has a lot to prove, and his performance for COL late last season was a good start (.392/.504 8-SB in 113 AB).I expect colorado to run the bases heavily this season and Matsui will be a big part of that. I don't expect .800 OPS from him but hitting in the two-hole won't hurt his numbers any. there really weren't any other MI's I had any interest in and I had been eyeballing Matsui for several rd's. Betemit was available but I really needed help with SB's more than I did %'s (plus Betemit has been absolutely horrid this spring).
 
57Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 13:14 		19.11 ~ Craig Monroe, OF, DET

One of the reasons I drafted Wigginton a few rounds ago (and sorry about the name misunderstanding Ty!) was his positional flexibility … but at this point he is forced into playing OF for me. Right now I’m looking for an OF, so that I can make Ty more useful. And fill my DH slot. But enough about Wigginton.

Monroe changed his plate approach last year - he took fewer walks, and he changed his swing to generate more fly balls. While it produced more power, it also impacted his batting average. However, there was some correction in the second half; he walked more and struck out less. He’s a free swinger so far this Spring, with 6 Ks and 1 walk in 28 ABs, but he is batting .333 so maybe he won’t be a black hole at OBP.
 
58Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 13:25 		19.12 Fernando Rodney, RP, Det

I still need a couple of starters, but I’ve decided to shore up my bullpen first. For all I know, I’ll end up with a starter or two off the free agent wire, so I don’t feel a need to chase the speculative candidates now.

I almost took Rodney last round, but opted for Neshek instead. This time, I’ll take him. I'm looking for a K/IP of close to 1, an ERA hopefully below 3.50, a WHIP around 1.20, and a few vultured wins or saves. Plus, if Todd Jones disappears, he could get the closer role – although Zumaya might get it instead.
 
59Building 7
Sustainer
ID: 171572711
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 14:24 		19.13 Wilson Betemit, 2B,SS,3B, LAD

Always nice to have a utility man on the west coast. If someone sits out, I plan on starting this guy. Move Figgins around. If not, he sits out. No big deal. There were only a couple guys I was interested in that could play SS and CI. There were a lot of outfielders and DH types left, and even though I still need one, I figured I could wait and select my utility man here. Didn’t need stolen bases, so I went with the slugger. I think Wilson can become a Bill Hall, junior.
 
60KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 14:33 		19.14 Juan Rincon, RP, MIN
I love it when plans fall into place (see 17.14 rationale)! I would have loved it even more had Guru let Rodney slip to me (I had actually considered trading up at one point), but I'm still quite pleased with the selection of Rincon.

Rincon is exactly the kind of pitcher I was looking for with this pick: High enough K/9, sub-3 ERA, 1.2-ish WHIP, and good Win potential. Rincon had a bit of an off year last year, but that can easily be written off to his hamstring injury. Even including last year, his 3-year averages are 6 W, 1 Sv, 2.66 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.85 K/9.

That said, I'm not going to write last year off completely. I think I can safely project Rincon at 6 W, 1 Sv, 2.7 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9. If he achieves that, he will have made my plan for Rounds 17-19 fall into place perfectly. If he puts up more of the same from 2006, I may have to grin-and-bear it.
 
61KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 14:48 		19.15 Mark Prior SP CHC
Placeholder
 
62KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 14:49 		for filthy:
19.16 Scott Hatteberg 1B CIN
I can't be taking risks on ALL of my picks, gotta mix in some insurance every so often. My CI was a little thin at this time, and Hatteberg was the most guaranteed of having and keeping a job in my opinion. He flies under the radar usually, but he is fairly consistent, which will probably save the day for me at some point.

20.01 Derrick Turnbow RP MIL
When I was setting the queue for these picks, I had seen a headline that the Red Sox had been eyeing Turnbow. That was good enough to put him near the top of my queue. He has shown that he is capable of being dominant for stretches, and even with a long stretch of gross pitching his strikeout numbers were still decent last year. If he does get traded to Boston, that could be a little boost to his confidence and allow him to seize control of that muddled closer situation. With my own muddled closer situation it was at least worth the risk.

 
63KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 14:49 		20.02 Mark Loretta 2B HOU
Placeholder
 
64KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 14:50 		20.03 Josh Bard, C, SDG
10-or-24, 2 HR, 2 2B. That's Bard's line as of yesterday in Spring Training. I know ST doesn't always translate to the regular season, but I took a chance on Andruw Jones' ST in 2005, when he'd previously never hit more than 36 HR, and it paid off quite well. So, I'll take a chance that Bard will bring his success in ST into his new full-time job.

With Rotowire saying he'll hit 4th (righties) or 5th (lefties) and his non-offense backup struggling on defense, I'm liking this pick more and more.

Besides, I only have 6 picks left, I need a C at some point, and with 3 other managers without a C, I wasn't overjoyed with the 4th (or even 3rd) guy on my list. Bard it is!
 
65Building 7
Sustainer
ID: 171572711
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 15:26 		20.04 Al Reyes, RP, TB

I had this guy a couple years ago on my RIBC AA team. He sat out a year and I think he can do well in middle relief for Tampa. Not much else to say. My best hope is they confuse him with the A. Reyes on St. Louis when they load the teams and nobody notices.
 
66Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 15:40 		20.05 Jeremy Sowers, SP, Cle

He doesn’t have the strikeout potential, but if he can pickup where he left off last season, he’s good value here. No doubt a bit of a homer pick, but I had him last year as well, and was very satisfied with the results. Consensus projections: 12w-88K-3.96-1.28

 
67Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 16:02 		for Tosh:
20.06 ~ James Shields, SP, TAM

Shields is probably the final piece of my starting rotation, and gets me up to about 1175 IP so far. Like fellow-draftees Harang and Snell, Shields has high K/9 and K/BB numbers which I hope lead to solid ERA and WHIP. After four starts this Spring, Shields has been exactly what I might hope for from a player on the brink of taking a step up: a 2.25 ERA, 2 BB to 12 Ks, and no HRs allowed in 12 IP. My biggest worry is that the Tampa Bay bullpen allows too many inherited runs to score. That won’t be good for my ERA at all!
 
68Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 16:50 		for holt:
20.07 David Ross C CIN
well, I needed a catcher and there weren't many left. I figured Ross had more ceiling than Napoli and some undrafteds. he hit 21 hr's in 247 ab's last year. that's a lot. I don't expect him to reproduce .353/.579, but I'll roll the dice and see what happens. I may go through a dozen catchers this year.

I also considered Ryan Church here but thought it was a better bet to take the only catcher left who could actually hit.

 
69Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 16:50 		for Trip
20.08 - Julian Tavarez, RP, BOS

Right now he's the favorite to close in Boston. That could change at any second, but if he can pull it off, this is a bargain.
 
70Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 16:51 		for Peter N.:
20.09 Xavier Nady, 1B/OF, PIT

I'm a bit surprised that Nady is still around at this point. I had planned on taking my sleeper pick at pitcher here (Brandon McCarthy). However, I thought the chances of him making it back to me were greater than Nady's so I went ahead and took Nady. I'm guessing he dropped because he is currently not 100%. I'll take him though. He should see plenty of at-bats in the Pittsburgh lineup that lacks much of any power besides Bay. He also has some position flexibility which is nice in a league like this with hardly any bench. Nads should be a solid utility man for me.

 
71Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 16:51 		for Bags:
20.10 David Dellucci, OF, CLE

I had a few other platoon OF's in mind here. Ultimately I picked Dellucci because of his lineup and potential for decent OBP/SLG numbers. I will have to draft another OF to help out with the Dellucci platoon. At this point in the draft with everyone having needs all over the place I might get one of the OF's still on my queue.

 
72Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 16:53 		20.11 Brandon Inge, 3B, Det
I took Brandon Inge to round out my starting lineup. He’s a good fit for my roster because his strength is power and his weakness is OBP. Well my OBP% should be pretty solid, but I’m a tad light in RBI and SLG.

Watching about 125 Tiger games a year, I’m a huge Inge fan. He is a spectacular defensive player and should have won the gold glove last season. Inge is a phenomenal athlete and allegedly the Tigers strongest player. He’ll be 30 this season, but I think he has a decent chance of having his peak season(s) later than the usual 27. He was drafted out of college as a SS, converted to a C, and then converted to 3B when Pudge was signed. This will be his 3rd full season at 3rd base.
 
73Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 17:15 		for DaveR:
20.12 Matt Capps RP PIT
Last year, in his rookie season, Capps went 9-1 with a 3.72 ERA and WHIP of 1.227. He undoubtedly will be the Pirates closer at some point.

Whether that happens sooner or later, this year or next, is any ones guess, but worth a gamble at this point that it will be sometime this season.

 
74Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 17:16 		for BlueHen
20.13 - David Eckstein, SS, STL

placeholder
 
75Athletics Guy
ID: 281162612
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 20:39 		for Athletics Guy:
20.14 Pedro Martinez, SP, NYM

This could turn out to be my biggest steal of the draft. It all depends on how many innings Pedro Martinez can give me. Once he's healthy enough to pitch, I have no doubt that he'll be back in All-Star form. Even if Martinez has similar numbers to last year (which weren't that great by his standards), he'll still help lower my WHIP and move me up in K's.

 
76StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 21:31 		20.15 Pedro Feliz, 3B, SFO

At one point I was maintaining a spread sheet and realized my hitting is in trouble. I'm really counting on everybody playing over their projections which can't be good. Feliz is another one that has potential to have a pretty good year. If he does, maybe I can substitute him in for someone that isn't. At the very least he will provide nice insurance at CI.
 
77Philsphan
Donor
ID: 301442416
Tue, Mar 20, 2007, 23:13 		20.16 Mark Buehrle, SP, CHW
This was going to be my Catcher pick, but something told me I needed a 5th starter here. Last year this guy was a 4th or 5th round pick. This year he’s averaged around the 15th. So for me to get him at the end of Round 20 means I have found a hidden gem or I’ve picked up some really dead weight. I hope for the former, although ST isn’t so far. Nevertheless as my 5th starter, there is little risk here. I project 14 wins, but if I get 10-12 out of my #5 starter there are worse things in this game.

21.01 Mike Lowell, 3B, BOS
This too was going to be my Catcher pick, but I also needed a B/U 3B. Seeing Lowell’s name near the top of my depth chart at this point was hard to ignore. Again, this is another low-risk pick imho. He had a fairly decent bounce-back year last year. Anything close to the numbers he had in ‘06 (80/79, .339/.475) and I will be content with the production of my 21st pick.
 
78Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 21, 2007, 14:37 		Rationales for rounds 21-25