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| Posted by: StLCards
- Dude [31010716] Mon, Jun 18, 2007, 10:02
Lots of Gurupies moving up the standings slowly but surely. Interleague play still in effect this week. Good luck! |
| | | 1 | Alex
ID: 27324224
Mon, Jun 18, 2007, 10:21
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1 - Except in the top 5 or 10, where gurupies seem to have been moving down more than up the past few weeks. Actually, the real surprise to me is that none of the leaders have been able to open up any kind of substantial lead. There seem to be more and more teams within striking distance.
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| | | 2 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Jun 18, 2007, 10:32
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At one point, I thought that it would be tough to make up ground on the leaders after the opening weeks. With price not really being a limiting factor, I figured that most rosters would be very similar.
But it seems that there is quite a lot of variability in scores from day to day. Aside from a couple of pitchers, there aren't many slam dunk starters - and those pitchers could implode any day. Choice of closers seems vary quite a bit. And while there are a few hitters who seem to be more-or-less locked in every day, there still seems to be a lot of variation. With so many possible hitters and so few spots to fill, there always seem to be opportunities to seek the favorable matchup in lieu of the proven stud.
As a consequence, it looks like there will be a lot of give and take all summer long. That's good.
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| | | 3 | Bandos
Sustainer
ID: 279492419
Mon, Jun 18, 2007, 11:19
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Finally back after much boating. I did miss Beckett, but only because I couldn't get onto a computer. Better lucky...
I ran the standings and will post when I have a bit more. Many teams within 250 pts of the lead.
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| | | 4 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Jun 18, 2007, 12:13
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Pujols is now OUT again. This time, he is priced at 90 (offered, 89.77 bid)
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| | | 5 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Mon, Jun 18, 2007, 12:20
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It sure looks funny to have a $90 player on the bench and a $2 player starting!
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| | | 6 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Mon, Jun 18, 2007, 12:53
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I am so far behind and so far over GPs that figureing out how to make up that much ground is pretty troubling. I went through and found like 19 or 20 teams ahead of me that are in about where I am or a little worse but way ahead in points. Not sure how mnay behind me, but I need to make up like 500-700 pts while cutting back GPs at some point. That's how bad my hitters have been.
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| | | 7 | Ender
ID: 1138421
Mon, Jun 18, 2007, 19:53
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Please tell me I'm not the only one who's getting hammered by Hammels tonight. I went back and forth and decided it could be a big K night for him. It looks like I wasted my IP tonight.
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| | | 8 | Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Mon, Jun 18, 2007, 19:54
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You're the only one ;-)
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| | | 10 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Mon, Jun 18, 2007, 20:20
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You 'da man Ender.
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| | | 11 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Mon, Jun 18, 2007, 20:30
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I'm still hoping for a come from behind victory though!
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| | | 12 | Chuck
ID: 152261223
Mon, Jun 18, 2007, 22:02
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Who has Todd Jones? I do! I do!
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| | | 13 | Ender
ID: 1138421
Mon, Jun 18, 2007, 22:06
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Well, it could have been a lot worse. He only burned 5 IP to get the -21 or so points.
I'd feel better if my hitters would pick up the slack. I still have some in play, but it looks to be a pretty foul night.
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| | | 14 | Chuck
ID: 152261223
Mon, Jun 18, 2007, 22:11
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Some pitching options tomorrow:
Peavy vs. BAL
Penny @ TOR
Santana @ NYM
Beckett @ ATL
Colon vs. HOU
Sheets vs. SFO
Probably a few others I'm overlooking, too.
At this point, trying to get down to 1 or 2... I have 3 I think I like, but not really sure about at least one.
For sure, some good-looking closer options for tomorrow, too.
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| | | 15 | mrbig
ID: 6336160
Mon, Jun 18, 2007, 22:16
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Ode to Todd Jones - "For he's a jolly good fellow... which everyone can deny."
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| | | 16 | Pops
ID: 5923858
Mon, Jun 18, 2007, 22:34
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Wow, a horrible night for my hitters.
It's pretty sad when the best way for me to gain pts now is to hope that Cordero (don't have him) comes in to a save situation and implodes. Or heck, it doesn't even have to be a save situation ;).
Anyone else thinking about having 2-5 in the Yankee lineup tomorrow night? I doubt i'll pull the trigger on it though.
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| | | 17 | Pops
ID: 5923858
Mon, Jun 18, 2007, 23:06
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For the love of god Botchy, bat Bonds third!
I know you made that whole one world series when Kevin Brown and Cammy had more juice in them than a minute maid factory... that doesn't make you smart!
So close and yet so far away. I had Bonds tonight also so it could have been that much sweeter.
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| | | 18 | donk44
ID: 563322323
Mon, Jun 18, 2007, 23:10
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Re: #16
almost got your wish Pops. I thought Cordero had a good chance at a save opportunity today, but went back and forth on using him because he has pitched so bad lately. up by 1 run...bases loaded...2 outs...full count...escaped by the hair of his chinny chin chin. all Cordero owners can exhale now.
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| | | 19 | Ender
ID: 1138421
Mon, Jun 18, 2007, 23:13
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Whewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww!
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| | | 20 | donk44
ID: 563322323
Mon, Jun 18, 2007, 23:15
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intended to give eric byrnes a spot start over vlad tonight, since he was going against the very terrible edwin jackson. but then I have trouble with the internet and can't make the switch in time. don't ya hate it when that happens and it costs you points. #$@&*%@$#*
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| | | 21 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Mon, Jun 18, 2007, 23:58
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Better than having Lackey cost you points. Are there any pitchers that can pitch any more? ugh!
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| | | 22 | donk44
ID: 563322323
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 00:09
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agreed Cards, that is much worse. how about we make a deal where I get to make my switch, and you get to take lackey out of your lineup. think anyone would object ???
it's been hard to find any SP (that you would actually consider choosing that is) put up a good game lately. we'll see if peavy, santana, penny, and the rest of the SP gang for tomorrow fares any better.
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| | | 23 | Alex
ID: 20357221
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 03:03
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Insanity on the trading floor - I checked my scores at 2:40, wondered why Jeter's price was up so much, and went to bed. At 2:52 I got up in a terror, realizing that it was because people are already buying the few players with Thursday games on MONDAY NIGHT! Prices on those players are skyrocketing already.
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| | | 24 | Chuck
ID: 152261223
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 04:14
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I think you're assuming a bit much on Jeter. His price is up so much mainly because he is:
1. Coming off an off day today
2. Going into a series at Colorado
As for the night's action:
K-Rod neutralizes Jones' effort, with a couple points to spare.
Not great on the hitting, but at least I managed 50 points.
Passed on Lackey, even though everything I had pointed to him as the match-up of the night, so the "gut" worked well for me there.
I have quite a few pitching match-ups I like over Tuesday and Wednesday, but I want to talk myself out of any that have decent amounts of risk.
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| | | 25 | Alex
ID: 20357221
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 06:59
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Chuck - Every player with a Thursday game is up 5%-15% already.
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| | | 26 | mrbig
ID: 74421811
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 10:26
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Alex and Chuck, there is a simpler explanation. Every team that played on Monday is off on Thursday. Every team that was off on Monday plays on Thursday. Every player who plays on Thursday is increasing because every single one of them (by my count at least) didn't play yesterday (and not because they play on Thursday).
I could be wrong, but that's what I noticed looking at the schedules.
Last night was crud for me. Truly abysmal. At least I didn't waste any innings on SP.
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| | | 27 | Alex
ID: 45434314
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 11:21
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mrbig - That makes sense, and it certainly is magnifying the price moves, but they just seem a LOT bigger than the usual Monday into Tuesday price increases.
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| | | 28 | mrbig
ID: 74421811
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 11:38
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I think its pretty unusual to have this situation. Usually some teams that play on Thursday also play on Monday (and vice versa), so its not as noticable.
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| | | 29 | Chuck
ID: 152261223
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 13:15
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In a moral victory, I broke $1500 roster value last night. Now if only I could turn that into more points...
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| | | 30 | Alex
ID: 45434314
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 14:13
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I'll be lucky if I hit $1500 by the end of the season. :( Although if things go well this week I could hit $900 for the first time.
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| | | 31 | mrbig
ID: 74421811
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 16:02
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I think I'm around $860 right now. I would be surprised if I made it anywhere close to $1500, I just miss too many freezes.
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| | | 32 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 16:56
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To anyone thinking about Braves or Red Sox tonight...the weather is looking pretty bad here in ATL
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| | | 33 | Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 17:15
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Props to Alex and mrbig for making such a strong go at it with relatively limited roster value. Last I saw today I was floating between $1030 - 1070 depending upon the time of day. That gives me pretty much any lineup but leaves me usually with only 1 SP I can hold on to on top of that.
It's nice to begin to see some clarity on the leaderboard.
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| | | 34 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 354152921
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 17:39
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mrbig, just rotate some highly-bought pitchers for a week or so. Pick them up the day AFTER they pitch and drop them either the day BEFORE they pitch again or the morning of the day they pitch again.
That strategy took me over $1000 pretty quickly and I'm in the same boat as Species, though I've put the savings in the hitters so I can hang on to some stud pitchers.
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| | | 35 | Ender
ID: 1138421
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 18:08
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I'm floating between 1080 - 1100 these days. I'm not trying real hard to make money. I'm more or less trying to not to lose too much at once. I miss freezes on a regular basis and seem to recoup whatever I lose within the next 24 hours.
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| | | 36 | Ender
ID: 1138421
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 19:04
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Despite a bad feeling in my gut, I went with Santana. I don't usually bet against those feelings, but my good feelings have backfired lately. Perhaps I'm getting the two confused.
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| | | 37 | Chuck
ID: 152261223
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 19:15
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Rotohog doesn't give points when a batter is HBP? Anyone else think this should be equal points to a walk? (OK, nothing major, but my Utley just got pegged).
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| | | 38 | Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 20:05
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Looks like Ender's Gut was wrong! And of course, I skipped Santana as he just hasn't appeared as dominant as before. 5-0 Twins and Santana's only give up 1 hit. Kill me now!
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| | | 39 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 20:09
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I did go with Santana tonight, after a lot of mulling back and forth. Still plenty of time for that to backfire, of course. Lackey looked pretty good for about 4 innings last night, and then completely imploded. Until a game goes at least 6 innings or so, I don't get too comfortable.
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| | | 40 | Chuck
ID: 152261223
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 20:12
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Passed on Santana, Penny & Beckett (all doing well so far), took Sheets (look for the early inning blow-up). Still mulling over a couple options for tonight.
Also see some good match-ups tomorrow... will have to look at those more in-depth later.
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| | | 41 | Ender
ID: 1138421
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 20:28
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I went back and forth A LOT today. Do I burn the IP? Who do I choose? I did finally decide to skip Beckett given J's warning of adverse weather. I currently have Penny, Santana, and Sheets in play. The early returns are ofc ourse positive especially given the run support they have received. We'll see how it goes. Like Guru, I never feel safe in RotoHog or just plain roto until 6 IP are in the books. At that point if things go bad teams will usually bring in the pen.
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| | | 42 | Ender
ID: 1138421
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 20:34
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How does Fielder have a BB and 2 RBI? Late in a game I understand, but he certainly can't have more than 1 plate appearance yet. This is going by RH's numbers. Is it safe to assume he really only has 1 RBI?
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| | | 43 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 20:43
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[42] Fielder had a bases loaded walk.
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| | | 44 | mrbig
ID: 6336160
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 20:51
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To sum up my offense so far: no Twins, no Tigers, no Brewers. Also no Santana, Penny, Beckett, or Sheets. The makings of another disappointing night of RH baseball! Am I 20th in the adjusted rankings yet? I feel like I've been free-falling for a couple weeks now.
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| | | 45 | Ender
ID: 1138421
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 20:54
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That's what I figured. He just had 1 RBI at the time.
So Santana having 5 IP and ZERO K's must be error too, right? (Wishful thinking)
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| | | 46 | Chuck
ID: 152261223
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 21:06
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I knew you wouldn't let me down Sheets. That's more like it...
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| | | 47 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 21:09
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Santana - 7IP, only 67 pitches, still no Ks!
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| | | 48 | Ender
ID: 1138421
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 22:02
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Santana finally gets a K! Time to go recalibrate the Gut. At least not listening to it actually paid off :)
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| | | 49 | Ender
ID: 1138421
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 22:39
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BOS/ATL back in action, Beckett is done for the night (no surprise).
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| | | 50 | Ender
ID: 1138421
Tue, Jun 19, 2007, 23:57
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Peavy's falling apart. The 3rd run was unearned.
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| | | 51 | donk44
ID: 563322323
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 00:14
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maybe he's just trying to set up a save opportunity for his good buddy Trevor.
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| | | 52 | Ender
ID: 1138421
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 00:28
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As a Peavy and Hoffman holder I was trying to figure out what the net gain could be for me once it all started to go south. Of course the point is probably moot now that SD has put up 4 more runs. I think I'll just be glad that they are cementing the victory rather than be greedy.
I'm going to swear off SP for a while now having used 31 IP tonight. I can't complain about the results, but that's a lot of IP in a single day.
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| | | 53 | donk44
ID: 563322323
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 13:03
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Re: #50
they originally had peavy's 3rd run as unearned last night, but all sources today show it was earned, so they must have changed the scoring.
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| | | 54 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 15:48
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I guess I could be the only one without Haren going today, but I like to outhink myself. I just figured with it being a day game, interleague series, Reds starting to heat up, that there were enough unknown variables to scare me off. Very similar to why I didn't start Santana yesterday, yeah, that workded out well. I have Haren going in TSN so I am hoping he does well all the same.
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| | | 55 | Alex
ID: 45434314
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 15:53
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I had Santana yesterday, but am skipping Haren today.
Did anyone else notice anything funny at the freezes for Peavy and Santana yesterday? I don't know if my internet connection was just slower than usual, but I thought I sold both within a second of the freeze and lost $5+ on each. Usually I don't lose more than $1 from the peak. Same computer and everything. And it didn't seem noticeably slower when I did it.
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| | | 56 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 16:18
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I always like reading the cbs blogs of the game, gives you a little better perspective of the game than just watching the scoreboard.
"Haren continues to have control problems but he's got to be happy that he's pitching like this against the Reds. They swing at everything. Edwin Encarnacion gets the Reds first hit of the game and Haren walks Hamilton but Alex Gonzalez hits into a double play. A lot of Haren's pitches end up in the dirt but the Reds keep swinging at them."
Of course what that doesn't say is that is Haren's forte to begin with. The ball looks hittable and then the bottom falls out of it.
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| | | 57 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 16:33
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Same thing for me on the selling Alex.
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| | | 58 | Pops
ID: 57519613
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 16:37
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Haren pick struggling early. C'mon Danny!
I'm hoping to continue the pattern of people whining about pitchers only to have them turn it around and win :).
Incidentally, Jenks and Gregg were both brought in w/ 6 outs to get. It's a little less surprising to see Gregg there but scary for owners regardless.
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| | | 59 | mrbig
ID: 74421811
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 16:46
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No Haren, hoping for disaster! I do have Bonderman, hoping for magic!
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| | | 60 | Alex
ID: 45434314
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 16:48
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Any theories on what happened to Stl and me? Did this happen w/other players yesterday?
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| | | 61 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 16:54
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I'm watching that CWS/Fla game. Jenks hasn't been good and Gregg started off walking two before retiring the last two hitters. Fla got another run off Jenks in the 9th so at least Gregg has a 2-run lead now.
I've been staying away from SPs lately, but the haren matchup had me salivating. Hope he can salvage it and the As get some runs.
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| | | 62 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 16:58
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Alex, I didn't really think much of it, just figured that there was a huge Peavy sell off and I was just late in the queue. Typically I don't sell Peavy so I really don't know how much I normally would lose on him. My thought was more people sold him since he will be facing Boston next, but who knows.
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| | | 63 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 17:02
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good thing gregg got an insureance run as Konerko just drilled a full count 2 out fast ball into the seats.
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| | | 64 | Firemansmith
ID: 125432010
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 17:47
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I sold Peavy 1 second after freeze and then was unable to get back to my roster due to rotohog page not loading. Figured it was due to huge sell off at 3:55 pm.
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| | | 65 | Ender
ID: 1138421
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 17:50
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I skipped Haren today as well, but simply because I couldn't be around to sell him. I also skipped Fileder and Cordero for the sme reason.
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| | | 66 | Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 18:00
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Yes! A's take the lead in the 7th to put Haren in line for a win if the A's can hold on.
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| | | 67 | donk44
ID: 563322323
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 18:20
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props to Pops !! I give him all the credit to him for his whining idea (post #58). that strategy has worked quite well lately I've noticed.
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| | | 68 | Pops
ID: 57519613
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 18:34
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Thank you, thank you....I'll be here all week.
Seriously though, I had actually picked up Alan Embree and for whatever reason I didn't start him!
While i'm thrilled at getting a cheap 26pt turnaround from loss to win for Haren, Embree leaves me with a bad taste in my mouth.
Tough to swallow when I didn't pick up any saves yesterday, and I passed up Cordero and Gregg today also.
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| | | 69 | donk44
ID: 563322323
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 18:40
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I also passed up Gregg (went with Paps & Haren in SP spots) and also missed out on Cordero. I didn't consider double dipping with Embree, since that strategy has worked once all year for me I think.
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| | | 70 | Pops
ID: 57519613
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 18:45
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Re 59:
No Sheffield and no Polanco in the Tigers starting lineup.
Then again no Guillen, Mags, Granderson, or Pudge in the Nats lineup :).
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| | | 71 | TacoJohn
ID: 422551921
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 01:37
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What's the record for consecutive days without a save? I'm up to 3. And I only had 1 save on Sunday.
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| | | 72 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 01:53
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I had all 6 pitchers go today but only 2 saves. And while I'm grateful for the save, Gregg's wasn't all that good for 1.2 innings.
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| | | 73 | Building 7
Sustainer
ID: 171572711
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 09:32
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I've had my Rotohog team on automatic pilot for the last month. I have all my batters and 6 relievers, but have not used any starting pitchers. I received an email yesterday that I have won a T-shirt for the weekly prize. That was difficult. I plan on making a run at the monthly prize later, but have no clue on how I could have won a weekly prize.
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| | | 74 | donk44
ID: 563322323
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 10:12
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2 teams to keep an eye on that have crept into the top 100 globally.
95th - hellotony(hellotony) (-14/-141)
82nd - tacowallace(jkloster) (-30/-108)
wonder if there are a few more like them lurking just out of the leaderboard.
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| | | 75 | Alex
ID: 45434314
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 10:16
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74 - Yeah, tacowallace "debuted" in the adjusted top 10. On the other hand, anyone who has much more than his -30/-108 to make up is going to have a hard time doing so.
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| | | 76 | donk44
ID: 563322323
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 10:47
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75 - I agree. they most likely got a late start playing, and have been playing catchup with their usage ever since.
haven't seen the adjusted standings posted in a while. I bet it's really tightening up though.
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| | | 77 | Alex
ID: 45434314
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 11:10
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I've been leaving it to Bandos to post it, but as of this morning, I'm #3 (but now 240 points behind IMDBCooper), Species, MrBig, and Guru are #5, #6, and #7, and Bandos is #9. I think that's it for Gurupies in the top 10, but StlCards is #12 and Ender is #20. That's using 7/g and 4.75/ip for the adjustments. Top 20 are all within 600 points of the lead.
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| | | 78 | Ender
ID: 335132010
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 11:22
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It's a roller coaster ride. I have had a good June, but there's no magic formula for efficiency. That's the hard part. You can pick hot hitters, but there's no consistent way to tell which relievers are going to pitch in a non-save situation (which is really no more efficient than a SP) let alone which ones will get a save. That's the aggravating thing for me. I won't even mention what a crap shoot SP can be, even the studs put up duds from time to time.
All that being said, I will say that it seems much more feasible to make up ground than I thought it would be. I thought the early leaders would be tough to catch, but there is plenty of movement.
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| | | 79 | mrbig
ID: 74421811
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 11:25
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I've been getting my rear handed too me lately. That followed on the heels of a really nice run, so hopefully I can put another good run together soon!
Feels like I can't buy a save lately. I keep picking all the wrong RP. I haven't really gotten bombed too much, more a case of picking guys that aren't getting into games because their team wins 12-1 or loses 8-1!
Its a lot easier to make up 140 IP then it is to make up 30 GP. However, making up those IP might lead to some poor choices and missed save opps.
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| | | 80 | Ender
ID: 335132010
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 11:54
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That's so true. The guys mentioned in post 74 could be dangerous because of the IP available, but the monthly prize guys can attest to the decisions you are forced to make trying to burn IP.
ukula, are you out there? Good luck with the June monthly prize.
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| | | 81 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 11:58
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I recognize one of the names from tsn message boards and he is likely to be a force. Probably a few more people on the way up as well.
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| | | 82 | Ender
ID: 335132010
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 12:54
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hellotony has posted on these boards befoer as well.
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| | | 83 | donk44
ID: 563322323
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 13:22
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Re: 71, 72, 78, 79
I also haven't had many saves lately, and I think that is probably true for most teams. the underdogs have been winning more than usual, and when the favorites have been winning, it's often by a big margin. thus not many save chances, unless you have been picking "against the grain".
I disagree slightly with Ender on RP's pitching in non-save situations. I think the elite closers score a little more than 4.75 per IP when they go 1 inning in a blowout game. I certainly wouldn't want to see todd jones or joe borowski pitch in those situations if I owned them. and given the risk/reward ratio, I suppose I would prefer not to see even the elite closers I owned come in. but I've seen enough of those (1 IP, 0 hits, 0 BB's, 2 SO's) innings for 11.20 points, that I'd guess the top 5 or 6 closers average 6 - 7 points in those situations. of course one bad outing could cancel out 4 or 5 of those in one shot. I have no numbers to back any of this up, so I'm just speculating cause I had some time to kill. so who wants to go back, pick the top 6 or so closers, and see what they average in non-save situations ? me neither...lol. would be interesting to know, but not worth the time to find out.
though I think I can somewhat answer your other point Ender about not knowing when closers will pitch in non-save situation. that will happen way more often when a closer hasn't pitched for 3 or more days in a row. it's very rare for a closer to come in for a non-save situation when he has pitched in the previous 2 days, except for the times he is already warming up for a save and his team tacks on more runs in the last inning to take him out of the save chance. and if a closer hasn't pitched for 4 or 5 days, there is a very good chance he will pitch, regardless of the score. so if you want to avoid RP's pitching in non-save situations, pick ones that have pitched in the previous 2 days, or 3 days at most. this is all probably not news to anyone, but like I said, had some time to kill.
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| | | 84 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 13:40
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I'm not sure what this really means, but, I've gotten 82 saves this year (83.3 innings) with an average of 22.17 points per inning
In RP appearances without a save: 74 appearances (76.7 innings) 2.19 points per inning.
Not sure how to eliminate blown saves from the equation...or if I SHOULD eliminate them
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| | | 85 | donk44
ID: 563322323
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 13:47
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yeah, it's too hard to figure out. especially since you might need to go back to old boxscores to get an accurate count. though 2.19 points per inning in non-save situations certainly doesn't back up my theory. of course that is with all RP's used, and not just the elite ones. but it's enough to make me think I am likely wrong with the 6 - 7 points I was estimating. so I'll revise that to - "I'm happy when my RP comes in a non-save situation and gets me 11.20 points".
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| | | 86 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 14:12
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I can break it out by pitcher, but it would be a pretty small sample size. I'll look at a couple:
Papelbon: 6 non-saves, 1.35 per inning (includes a -15.16 outing)
KRod: 5 non-save outings, 6 innings, 1.39 per inning (includes a -9.15 outing)
Wagner: 4 non-saves, 4.3 innings, 4.23 per inning
Its just tough to measure because those bad outings really skew everything.
Interesting that I've used Francisco Cordero 12 times and he's gotten a save all 12. Never even appeared in a game without getting me a save.
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| | | 87 | donk44
ID: 563322323
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 14:24
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J - wow, that is low. guess it's true that most closers don't pitch as well when they can't get a save (and more $$$$ in their next contract). that could definately be a factor, and one which I didn't consider.
looks like my speculation/estimates were quite faulty, and those numbers are much lower than I figured. if they hold true, then the standard 4.75 points per inning for a SP would far outgain them in those non-save situations. that surprises me. oh well, glad it was just a theory and I'm not losing points over it.
thanks for your input J
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| | | 88 | TacoJohn
ID: 422551921
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 14:29
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When you say non-saves do you mean coming in in non-save situations or any appearance where they don't get a save? I think it's the former but if it's the latter it explains why the numbers are so low.
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| | | 89 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 14:33
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non-save = any outing where they don't get a save (while on my team). So blown saves are included in the numbers in post 86
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| | | 90 | Pops
ID: 57519613
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 15:00
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The Yankee 1-4 average > 1,000 OPS vs Lopez. But Lopez has obviously been a substantially superior pitcher this year relative to the rest of his career.
The guy I might regret passing up is Abreu, we'll see.
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| | | 91 | Alex
ID: 45434314
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 17:08
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What starting pitchers do people have today? I'm going with Bedard (so far, so good) and Felix (risky, but I'm an optimist). Anybody else like either of them?
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| | | 92 | mrbig
ID: 74421811
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 17:16
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I have Bedard and my fingers crossed. Don't jinx him!
GO RICE!
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| | | 93 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 17:36
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6IP, 9Ks, and only 79 pitches and they take Bedard out. Don't think I would have done that.
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| | | 94 | mrbig
ID: 74421811
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 17:41
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I assume they pinch-hit for him with runners on base? Only explanation I can think of. Even then, with their terrible bullpen, it would be a bad decision!
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| | | 95 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 17:55
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Hopefully the ability to choose closers runs in spurts and I'm right on the verge of picking correctly. Not many games today and already I'm wrong by not taking Gagne. Hopefully I'll get a couple of others right.
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| | | 96 | Pops
ID: 57519613
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 18:17
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Oh, great.
Ray's in w/ nothing to gain.
This should be a great addition to a day with Dempster and Rivera already, sheesh.
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| | | 97 | Ender
ID: 1138421
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 18:21
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I personally wasn't referring to blown saves and did sell RP's short when they do come in without giving up a hit. I wasn't really comapring averages though I was simply saying that an IP by a reliever isn't much different than an IP thrown by a starter. It's not like closers come in and automatically don't give up a hit or a BB and pick up a K or 2. If you isolate any given inning with a game, I'm just saying a closer really isn't any more likely to be lights out than a SP. Over the long term the RP average is probably better when you discount the blown saves (if you even should).
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| | | 98 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 18:41
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I just assumed that Ray had gotten the save when I saw a 6-3 win, but nooooo, Balt had to go and score a run in the 9th to make it a non-save situation. I had both Hoffman and Ray and wound up with negative points and negative $12 since I didn't sell them on time. Nice.
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| | | 99 | Syd
ID: 15537216
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 23:19
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Not rotohog, but TSN. Does anyone else find it creepy how Josh Hancock had a glitch in the price update. Dropped to 210k which is impossible, on top of the price movers board too. Weird.
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| | | 100 | Pops
ID: 5923858
Fri, Jun 22, 2007, 00:14
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King Fat has gotten me negatives everytime I've used him this year.
I'm 0/6 b/n him and Halladay. wtf?
King Fat is my new Fu-Rod.
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| | | 101 | Chuck
ID: 152261223
Fri, Jun 22, 2007, 00:35
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Not a huge night point-wise (No F- Her), but 75 points is 75 points.
Special thanks to Derrek Lee, Ichiro, Putz, and especially Saito for not bombing in a non-save situation.
No thanks to the 4 Yankees who have been in my line-up the last 3 days (2-5 in the batting order). A special no-thanks to Abreu's ~-12 points over the last 2 games.
I really want 4 OF's and 2 1B's for tomorrow. Not sure who the odd man out is going to be, but leaning toward it being Ichiro...
I have 3 starters I'm looking at for Saturday & Sunday, and then to 6 closers for a good chunk of time as I go into vacation mode. Can't do worse than what I've been doing recently...
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| | | 102 | Peter N.
ID: 4152471
Fri, Jun 22, 2007, 01:10
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The Felix/Putz combo was nice. Managed to score 142 points with only two hitters. I'll take it.
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| | | 103 | Ender
ID: 1138421
Fri, Jun 22, 2007, 07:50
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King Felix has been the bane of my existence in roto since he came back. I didn't start him in roto and didn't even consider him for RH. That didn't stop me from using Putz though :)
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