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| Posted by: Khahan
- [486552412] Mon, Oct 01, 2007, 14:32
Predictions for the various 2007 awards.
AL MVP: Some guy named Alex Rodriguez
AL Cy Young: Josh Becket (very close vote w/ sabathia)
AL RoY: Delmon Young
NL MVP: Matt Holiday
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy (pitching Triple Crown)
NL RoY: Ryan Braun
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| | | 1 | Great One
Sustainer
ID: 053272014
Mon, Oct 01, 2007, 14:45
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AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett
AL RoY: Dustin Pedroia
NL MVP: Jimmy Rollins
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy
NL RoY: Ryan Braun
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| | | 2 | blue hen
ID: 16322314
Mon, Oct 01, 2007, 15:00
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NL MVP: Jimmy Rollins
NL CY: Jake Peavy
NL ROY: Ryan Braun
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
AL CY: Josh Beckett (really close with Sabathia, Santana, Lackey, Haren, Carmona, and Bedard - hard to separate all those guys)
AL ROY: Dustin Pedroia
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| | | 3 | Perm Dude
ID: 5093716
Mon, Oct 01, 2007, 15:06
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AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
AL Cy Young: Sabathia (better ERA, more K's, CGs & SO's beats Beckett's one more win)
AL RoY: Delmon Young (with some competition from Pedroia)
Comeback Player: Lowell
NL MVP: Chipper Jones (Holliday gets a Coors discount), with some competition from Rollins
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy
NL RoY: Ryan Braun (in a not very interesting race)
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| | | 4 | blue hen
ID: 16322314
Mon, Oct 01, 2007, 15:10
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On Sabathia vs. Beckett, I wasn't sure if I wanted to give it to Sabathia because he had more innings or Beckett who had the better strikeout rate. Beckett was quite dominant, especially in that bandbox.
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| | | 5 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Mon, Oct 01, 2007, 15:22
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AL MVP: An A-Bomb, from A-Rod !
AL CYL Josh Becket
AL RoY: Dustin Pedroia (Joba in 2008!)
AL MoY: Joe Torre
NL MVP: Jimmy Rollins (David Wright drops out of top-5)
NL CY: Jake Peavy
NL RoY: Ryan Braun
NL MoY: Bob Melvin
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| | | 6 | Perm Dude
ID: 5093716
Mon, Oct 01, 2007, 15:34
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I think both Beckett & Sabathia were dominant--it's really a matter of which one was slightly more so. They each have their positives (for Beckett a better K rate, few HB, and dingers allowed. In addition to the stats above, Sabathia had a far better walk rate.
I think that voters will have a tough time (and it will be close, and Carmona will steal a few votes with his ERA beting better than both of them).
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| | | 7 | Seattle Zen
ID: 49112418
Mon, Oct 01, 2007, 15:57
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This is ridiculous. No one was pimping Jimmy Rollins for MVP until the Mets implode. Suddenly, ta da!, Jimmy Rollins is the best player over the six month season. No, not Prince Fielder. Sure, he would have been the best, but a couple of Milwaukee pitchers blow it down the stretch.
This whole notion that the MVP should be from a playoff team is the product of morons and therefore moronic. I'm sure there are a handful of morons out there whose ballots will change simply based on the final playoff game tonight.
AL MVP: A-Rod
AL CY: CC
The NL versions will be the same two I predicted in April: Holliday and Peavy.
The notion of Bob Melvin winning a Manager of the Year award is so foreign that I might propose just getting rid of the whole thing.
Jose Valverde should finish in the top 5 for NL CY and top ten in MVP as he easily was their most important player.
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| | | 8 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Mon, Oct 01, 2007, 16:14
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Nice post Zen.
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| | | 9 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Mon, Oct 01, 2007, 16:33
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AL MVP: A-Rod
AL CY: Beckett
AL RoY: Pedroia
AL MoY: Torre
AL Comeback: Gagne
Sabathia will likely JUST miss out on the Cy. I think voters will over-emphasize his extra win. I see Pedroia over Young because voters will like seeing him in the playoffs.
NL MVP: Fielder
NL Cy: Peavy
NL RoY: Braun
NL MoY: Melvin
NL Comeback: O. Perez
With a good/great playoffs, I think Rollins could steal the MVP. I know playoffs aren't supposed to count, but voters have let that influence them in the past. I think Rollins and Holliday will be close no matter what.
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| | | 10 | mrbig
ID: 59522612
Mon, Oct 01, 2007, 16:40
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Who I think should acutally win is in parenthesis, if different.
AL MVP: A-Rod
AL CY: C.C. - got to love the IP with that ERA
AL RoY: Pedroia
AL MoY: Don't know or care that much
NL MVP: Holliday (Fielder, then Peavy, then Holliday)
NL CY: Peavy
AL RoY: Braun - defense is bad, but so are Tulo's road splits!
NL MoY: Don't know or care that much
Rollins had a great year, but its hard to argue a guy is "most valuable" when the lineup was stacked with the likes of Utley and Howard, not to mentioned overlooked guys like Burrell, Rowand, and Victorino.
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| | | 11 | Rendle
ID: 457402414
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 10:57
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KKB, the writers have to get their votes in by Wednesday's game but the awards won't be announced until a couple weeks later.
AL MVP: A-Rod
AL CY: C.C.
AL RoY: Pedroia
AL MoY: Wedge
NL MVP: Holliday NL CY: Peavy
NL CY: Peavy
NL RoY: Braun
NL MoY: Manual
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| | | 12 | Khahan
ID: 486552412
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 11:48
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I'm tending think Pedroia may get the AL MVP because he was higher profile in a good way (compared to Delmon Young throwing bats in the minors and chewing out his manager).
Delmon Young: .288 13 HR, 10 SB, 93 RBI 65 Runs .316 OBP .408 Slg 38 doubles
Dustin Pedrioa .317 8 HR 7 SB 50 RBI 86 Runs .380 OBP .442 Slg 39 doubles
That and the AL Cy Young are the most intriguing 'races' right now.
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| | | 13 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 11:58
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More award predictions:
NLCS MVP - Alfonso Soriano
ALCS MCP - Jorge Posada
WS MVP - Bobby Abreu
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| | | 14 | Great One
Sustainer
ID: 053272014
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 12:03
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Pedroia also plays an outstanding 2B. Of course I don't think he'll be AL MVP as you state Khahan :)
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| | | 15 | Khahan
ID: 486552412
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 12:17
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heh, good catch. We all know he and Delmon are contending for the Cy Young. ;)
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| | | 16 | Punk42AE
Donor
ID: 036635522
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 12:27
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I'm going to believe the Comeback players are Carlos Pena and Dmitri Young.
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| | | 17 | Khahan
ID: 486552412
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 13:03
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Speaking of Pena, who thinks he has any chance of repeating next year? Or even just hitting 30-35 HR next year?
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| | | 18 | Bandos
ID: 7712916
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 13:29
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I watched him a ton this year as a Sox fan (18 vs sox, and a few vs the yanks as well ;) and he was very impressive - long at bats, battled good pitches, crushed balls over the middle of the plate. He also was VERY highly thought of before being brought up maybe too early? I have a feeling he will continue to hit, Khahan.
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| | | 20 | Rendle
ID: 457402414
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 15:57
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They might as well count the postseason if they're only going to count the last week. Zen brings up a great point. What the hell did Prince Fielder do in the last week to hurt his MVP stock?
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| | | 21 | Razor
ID: 136523110
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 16:13
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Zen got on his high horse about Fielder, but ignores the fact that Rollins has been better than Fielder regardless of who made the playoffs. Fielder is an excellent hitting 1B who defends horribly. Rollins is a great hitting SS who runs and defends very well.
I also recall blue hen saying Rollins was not a very good player or was overpaid (at $9 million) or something like that, which I objected to.
AL
MVP - A-Rod
Cy - Lackey
ROY - Pedroia
NL
MVP - Rollins
Cy - Peavy
ROY - Braun
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| | | 22 | blue hen
ID: 16322314
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 16:24
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Razor, was that in 2003, when Rollins had a 700 OPS? This year, it was 875, which is excellent for a shortstop. Truth be told, Utley was far more valuable than Rollins in 2007. Utley had the same OPS at Howard, in fact. I was just going with the crowd.
Fielder was awesome. But his OPS was barely better than Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday and was below Chipper Jones. If your defensive position didn't matter, I guess he's got a shot at it. But let's talk second basemen only...
Utley was at 976, followed by Kent (875), Polanco, Cano, KJohnson, Pedroia, Hudson, Phillips, Roberts, Weeks, Uggla, Kinsler, Hill, DeRosa, Sanchez, and Ellis (777). For the math-challenged, Ellis (16th in MLB) was closer to Kent, than Kent was to Utley.
I talked myself into it. Let me revise:
NL MVP: Chase Utley
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| | | 23 | Seattle Zen
ID: 49112418
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 17:02
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Razor
I was discussing the fact that I think it is stupid that voters seemingly insist that the MVP must be from a playoff team so much so that Player A may be the consensus MVP until his team misses the playoffs on the last day, then suddenly Player B is anointed simply because his team took the pennant.
You want to have an argument that Rollins is better than Fielder, yet you site no statistics at all to bolster your case, you expect us to simple agree with your bold statement: Fielder is an excellent hitting 1B who defends horribly. Rollins is a great hitting SS who runs and defends very well.
Weak. First basemen are supposed to bash the ball, who cares what they do with their glove. This isn't basketball, the defensive prowess of a first baseman comprises less than 10% of his worth. Citing the poor defense of a first baseman is a sign of a weak argument.
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| | | 24 | Perm Dude
ID: 5093716
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 17:07
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So's insisting that a poor [F]ielder is an MVP.
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| | | 25 | Razor
ID: 136523110
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 17:07
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I am not sure when you said it. I searched but could not find it. It was definitely some time after he signed his latest contract, which pays him $8 million. I think you were complaining about Gillick having signed him at that price tag.
Utley would have been my MVP hands down if he did not miss so many games. Holliday gets nicked because he plays in Coors.
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| | | 26 | Razor
ID: 136523110
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 17:18
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Citing the poor defense of a first baseman is a sign of a weak argument.
Ya, it is, but that wasn't the point of my argument. The crux was that he is a first basemen (that he is a bad one makes it just that much worse) while Rollins is a SS (and a great one at that).
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| | | 27 | biliruben
ID: 17502215
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 17:20
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Rollins defends well?
I'm going with the low-brow argument on this one:
Fielder hit 50 unadulterated dingers at the tender age of 23 with a very respectable average.
That's huge! Give it to him, because he may just eat himself out of the game before he gets another shot at it.
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| | | 28 | Mark L
ID: 25155512
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 17:32
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bili 27 - living in the exercise and healthy-eating Mecca of Milwaukee, Wisconsin, there's no chance.
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| | | 29 | Seattle Zen
ID: 49112418
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 17:32
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PD
So's insisting that a poor [F]ielder is an MVP.
Man, PD, that's pathetic. My statement is Citing the poor defense of a first baseman is a sign of a weak argument. Your response is "Yes, but insisting a poor fielder is the MVP is also a weak argument." When you must have meant, "No, insisting that a poor fielder is an MVP is a weak argument."
If defense is so vital to MVP considerations, how come some fielding metric is not cited when making MVP arguments? There are plenty of metrics out there, I have never seen anyone site any of them.
Rollins was above average this year amongst NL shortstops in Zone Rating and Range Factor, but nothing to write home about.
Holliday gets nicked because he plays in Coors.
yeah, let's just ignore every player from one of the 16 teams in the National League because of their home ballpark. Another HGH enhanced strong argument!
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| | | 31 | GolfFreak
Leader
ID: 01730209
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 19:27
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Fielder is an excellent hitting 1B who defends horribly.
I must have watched at least 50 plus of the Crews games. I dont think he is horribly. I couldnt find error stats but think it was only 10-13 this year. He's no gold glove, but hes not HORRIBLY!
Did find Rollins had 11 errors.
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| | | 32 | Perm Dude
ID: 5093716
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 20:04
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Fielder with 14 errors, a .989 Fielding Percentage. This placed him 10th in FP for NL first basemen for 2007, second worst FP among qualified 1B in the NL (11 players), and more errors than any of them.
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| | | 33 | Perm Dude
ID: 5093716
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 20:06
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Even among first basemen, his fielding percentage is bad.
My vote is still for Chipper, Zen. I don't care where Fielder or Rollins finishes.
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| | | 34 | Perm Dude
ID: 5093716
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 20:09
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Regarding Rollins, I love how you call third best fielding percentage "above average." By that measure, Fielder's home runs were above average as well, I suppose.
Rollins was third best among qualified SS in the NL, and was tied for second best for fewest errors (along with 4 others). He wasn't the best fielding shortstop out there, but he's among the best in the league.
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| | | 35 | Seattle Zen
ID: 86541617
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 22:21
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And all this discussion of everyone's fielding is like talking about Pamela Anderson's pinky fingers and toes... much ado about nothing, let's deal with what's important.
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| | | 36 | tastethewaste
ID: 21950219
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 22:52
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I was discussing the fact that I think it is stupid that voters seemingly insist that the MVP must be from a playoff team so much so that Player A may be the consensus MVP until his team misses the playoffs on the last day, then suddenly Player B is anointed simply because his team took the pennant.
8 of the last 21 NL MVPs have come from a team that has not made the playoffs. Out of those 13 that came from a playoff team, the only Player B you can make a case for that I see is Barry Bonds or Ellis Burks in 1996. The other 96 candidates all made the playoffs. Caminiti won the award that year and if the teams were reversed Caminiti would not have won it, but it was still not a clear cut decision. In 1995 Larkin won it, but all other candidates were in the playoffs anyway.
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| | | 37 | Perm Dude
ID: 5093716
Tue, Oct 02, 2007, 23:33
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Good points.
Many voters have expressed the belief that the MVP should be good enough to help their team get into the playoffs. I dunno if that is a good criteria (or, whether it is enough to outweigh other criteria). But players who perform exceptionally under the pressure conditions of a playoff race probably have a psychological edge over those who don't.
That all said, Chipper Jones gets my vote for NL MVP. Top 5 in batting average, on base %, slugging, OPS, top ten in runs and extra base hits.
Plus, he was an excellent fielder in a position which demands it.
Fielder, of course, has all those dingers. But despite having 11 more dingers than Chipper, he only had 17 more rbi's. And Fielder had 60 more at bats to do it.
pd
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| | | 38 | blue hen
Leader
ID: 710321114
Wed, Oct 03, 2007, 00:01
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What about OPS? Chipper destroys Prince.
Also, you might want to retract post 34. Any fielding discussion that centers around fielding percentage (or worse, fewest errors), shouldn't take place in a forum like this.
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| | | 39 | Perm Dude
ID: 5093716
Wed, Oct 03, 2007, 00:09
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Among qualified fielders? Of course it does. Players who play in 2/3 of their teams' games at the position in question are certainly comparable.
In any case, the point wasn't centering around FP or errors, except as a way to demonstrate that, even among first basemen, Fielder is a below-average fielder.
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| | | 40 | blue hen
ID: 16322314
Wed, Oct 03, 2007, 14:33
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He's last in range factor if that means anything.
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| | | 41 | filthy
ID: 186293016
Sun, Oct 14, 2007, 03:03
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Last in range factor for a first baseman would mean that his pitchers don't get a lot of ground ball outs. Unless somewhere tracks scoops, defensive stats for first basemen don't carry much weight. From the stats that are used, it seems like Fielder would be in the bottom tier of National League first baseman, along with Dmitri Young, Conor Jackson, and Ryan Howard. Fielder could be argued as the worst fielding first baseman, but I would consider him passable at worst, not bad enough to harm his chances in the MVP race.
As far as the race is concerned, I don't think Chipper Jones or Chase Utley deserve much more than honorable mention. They both missed a month of time, you can't be that valuable to your team if you only play 80% of the season. That leaves a tossup between Rollins, Howard, Holliday, and Fielder. A couple of Mets, and maybe Valverde and Webb deserve some mention. For the winner, I would find it hard to pick between Rollins and Howard, it is kind of cyclical trying to figure out which one is better because they are so complementary to each other. Holliday gets too much help from Coors, so to me the winner has to be Prince Fielder. He nearly carried a team with horrible pitching to the playoffs, was reliable for the whole season, and crushed every single pitching staff in his division. The Brewers missed the playoffs, but Fielder had nothing to with that.
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| | | 42 | Seattle Zen
ID: 49112418
Wed, Oct 17, 2007, 19:28
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Holliday gets too much help from Coors...
Yes, the Rockies as a team hit better at Coors than on the road. Everyone wants to tarnish Holliday's accomplishments simply based on that fact, yet no one suggests that Jake Peavy should not get the Cy Young award. Perhaps if you looked at the numbers, you would see that the Padre pitchers perform much, much better at home than on the road, a discrepency much larger than Coors Field's hitter effect.
.......................ERA BAA SLG OPS WHIP
SD pitching home: 3.02 .235 .336 .630 1.16
SD pitching away: 4.42 .264 .413 .741 1.37
If Holliday is docked for his home field advantage, something I think is overstated because of the numbers Coors was producing in the Nineties but no longer, then Peavy should be under even more scrutiny because Petco is a pitcher's dream.
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| | | 43 | Perm Dude
ID: 31911177
Wed, Oct 17, 2007, 20:19
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ROFL! I'm guessing, Zen, you didn't look at Peavy's Home/Road stats before posting, eh? Take a look, and edit your #42 as necessary.
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| | | 44 | beebop
ID: 313282615
Wed, Oct 17, 2007, 21:53
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what i found interesting about the colorado home/away splits this season is the batters as a team have produved a whole lot better at home than on the road. Yet the pitching home/away stats are very similiar. ERA's are very close, away slightly better, batting average against is better on the road, yet WHIP was exactly the same. The pitchers have found how to pitch in colorado, maybe the batters just plain suck on the road?
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| | | 45 | Seattle Zen
ID: 529121611
Wed, Oct 17, 2007, 22:33
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Beebop
Yes, I found that interesting as well. I agree with your assessment that the CO pitchers have figured out how to pitch in Coors in ways visitors have not. I also think that CO batters will take advantage of Coors because they have so much more experience batting in the thin air, they know what to expect. Visitors have a small window of time to get used to the change. Confidence is also a big part of hitting. If you are a Rockie, you just feel more confident at home. Likewise, you just aren't as positive when on the road.
Perm
Yeah, Jake did very well both at home and on the road. He is a great pitcher. He did start a third of his road games at LAD and SFO, both very strong pitchers' parks. The fact of the matter is, if he was an Astro or a Rockie, I doubt he would have such great numbers. He benefited from Petco, that cannot be denied. I just find it strange that people will dismiss Holliday with a mere phrase - he plays at Coors - yet Padre pitchers do not garner the same dismissiveness.
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| | | 46 | Perm Dude
ID: 31911177
Wed, Oct 17, 2007, 22:50
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Actually, Peavy pitched remarkably better on the road, Zen. 10-1 on the road versus just 9-5 at home. While his ERA was similar, hitters had about a 20% better average against him at home.
Yes, pitching in SF and LA might help, but at some point the analogy breaks down for all the "but, but..." attempts at mitigating Peavy when compared to Holliday (.376 at home vs .301 on the road).
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| | | 47 | Seattle Zen
ID: 529121611
Thu, Oct 18, 2007, 00:22
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Wow, still using "wins and losses" for your argument regarding starting pitchers? Maybe he was 9-5 at home because it is so damn hard to score runs in the Petco cavern that his teammates regularly let him down. I care more about his statistics. Your claim that he pitched "remarkably better" on the road is ridiculous. You are simply wrong.
Position players play in 160 or so games, which is such a large sample that statistical variance gets washed out. Starters go around 30 times. 15 starts at home, 15 on the road. Two bad starts would seriously affect a pitcher's split stats. But I'm sure this is going over your head...
In short, Peavy was tied for second in the NL for home ERA: 2.51. Roy Oswalt was first... there are some things that just can't be explained, I guess.
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| | | 48 | Perm Dude
ID: 169581721
Thu, Oct 18, 2007, 00:40
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Well, I gotta admit you get me to literally LOL, Zen.
our claim that he pitched "remarkably better" on the road is ridiculous. You are simply wrong.
I know, I know. 20% better BA at home. I see you neglected to see how he did on the road. Frankly, I was more impressed by Peavy's win @ Cincinnati this year (a notorious hitter's park) than trying to overcompensate for a pitcher's park where he went 9-5.
You might discount wins & losses by the CYA voters, but I can guarantee you that they do not. And that's what this thread is about, isn't it? And a ham-fisted attempt at conflating my own pitcher rankings with the CYA voters reveals the long and lonely roads you'll travel to try to make a point. A point that, as far as we can tell, has been lost in the verbiage. Holliday's stats were helped by his home park much more than Peavy's stats were helped by his.
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| | | 49 | Seattle Zen
ID: 529121611
Thu, Oct 18, 2007, 00:41
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Your claim that he pitched "remarkably better" on the road is ridiculous. You are simply wrong.
He was nearly identical on the road and at home
Jake Peavy at home.
ERA: 2.51
DIPS (defense independent) ERA: 2.45
ERC (ERA based on hits and walks, not actual runs scored) 2.33
BIPA (Ball in Play average) .284
Jake Peavy away
ERA: 2.57
DIPS (defense independent) ERA: 3.17
ERC (ERA based on hits and walks, not actual runs scored) 2.26
BIPA (Ball in Play average) .240
Most sabermatricians argue that BIPA is pitcher indifferent, or that the pitcher has little to do with what happens to a ball put into play, will it drop for a hit or will the defense make an out. It could be argued that Jake's .240 on the road was freakish and a good reason why he did so well. I believe the 40 point BIPA difference is reflected in the DIPS era.
Jake pitched great both on the road and at home. I think he benefited from having Petco has his home stadium. I also believe he deserves the Cy Young award. The fact he pitched well at home and away is a great argument for his dominance.
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| | | 50 | Seattle Zen
ID: 529121611
Thu, Oct 18, 2007, 00:47
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Holliday's stats were helped by his home park much more than Peavy's stats were helped by his.
Well, I don't think you can make that claim. You can certainly claim that Holliday did much better at home than on the road, whereas Peavy did well everywhere and I completely agree. But you will have to show me Coors field helps hitters more than Petco helps pitchers. I don't have access to Ballpark Factor statistics for 2007, but I bet Petco has a stronger factor than Coors.
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| | | 51 | Seattle Zen
ID: 529121611
Thu, Oct 18, 2007, 00:50
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You might discount wins & losses by the CYA voters, but I can guarantee you that they do not.
Perm, you are better than the average Cy Young voter, I know you are. Those old cigar chewing clods are dinosaurs, we here at Rotoguru embrace statistics and the knowledge they impart.
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| | | 52 | Perm Dude
ID: 169581721
Thu, Oct 18, 2007, 00:50
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I also believe he deserves the Cy Young award. The fact he pitched well at home and away is a great argument for his dominance.
I agree with both these statements. Also, he dominated other pitchers in comparison--he was about a half a run better in ERA, for example. Tops in WHIP, etc.
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| | | 53 | beebop
ID: 21959181
Thu, Oct 18, 2007, 04:27
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I just think Peavy is that good, it probably wouldnt matter where he pitched. 3 out of the last 4 seasons, his home/road splits have been very similiar.
Also, dont know how much of a point this is, as it involves different staffs, and maybe Dodger pitchers are just good, but there home/road splits were virtually the same too, slightly better ERA and batting averge against on the road. I think Peavy's ERA at LA was 4.50 this year.
I wouldnt go as far as saying opposing batters need more time to adjust to Coors, as we all usually jump all over hitters who have upcoming games there for fantasy purposes.
Colorado were under .500 on the road. They might just be one of those teams who knows how to utilise their home ballpark to their advantage and just generally perform better at home.
Would Coors be a hitters park even without the thin air factor?
I dont know if you can really take away from players where their home stadium is too much. Does Adrian Gonzalez get an extra 5-10HR because half his games are in a pitchers park? It isnt quite to extremes as Hollidays splits, except when you look at SLug%
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| | | 54 | Nerfherders
ID: 501035289
Thu, Oct 18, 2007, 11:50
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AL MVP A-Rod
AL Cy Sabathia
AL RoY Pedroia
NL MVP Holliday
NL Cy Peavy
NL RoY Braun
I think Holliday is the clear choice for MVP this year. He carried that team on his shoulders for a good part of the year, but especially those last 15 games, and that will be fresh in the all of the voters' minds. He won the batting title, was second in the RBI race (by one), top 5 in HR's. I don't know how he will not get it.
After having lived in Denver for seven years I developed a theory on why the hitter's splits are so different home vs road. It comes down to breaking pitches. A breaking pitch doesnt break as much in Coors as it does at sea level. The difference is very small but when you are used to a pitch breaking so much, and it breaks a cm more, thats the difference between a base hit and a grounder to SS. As for pitching, the Rockies needed pitchers who are not afraid to throw strikes and had good fastballs and hard sliders. They finally figured that part out, and along with the humidor the Rockies pitching in Coors Field has actually been good. But I always felt that the hitters not hitting on the road would never allow them to have success. I gladly eat my words. :)
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| | | 55 | blue hen
ID: 16322314
Thu, Oct 18, 2007, 14:29
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Zen 50:
I don't have access to Ballpark Factor statistics for 2007
Did you even look?
Petco is dead last, at .755. #29 is closer to #25 than they are to the Pads.
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| | | 56 | Seattle Zen
ID: 49112418
Thu, Oct 18, 2007, 18:30
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Thanks, BH, Petco certainly is more of a pitcher's park than Coors is a batter heaven.
I am shocked to see that both Minute Maid field and the Metrodome were well below Safeco field. What happened in Houston, I thought that place was a bandbox?
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| | | 57 | ¤ Mario LeMoose ¤
ID: 139153014
Tue, Nov 06, 2007, 16:27
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American League 2007 Gold Glove Winners
C ... Ivan Rodriguez, Det
1B ... Kevin Youkilis, Bos
2B ... Placido Polanco, Det
SS ... Orlando Cabrera, LAA
3B ... Adrian Beltre, Sea
OF ... Ichiro Suzuki, Sea
OF ... Torii Hunter, Min
OF ... Grady Sizemore, Cle
P ... Johan Santana, Min
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| | | 58 | Great One
ID: 201155199
Tue, Nov 06, 2007, 18:32
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Its crap that Crisp doesn't win the Gold Glove over Grady and Torii. He had more assists than both, only made 1 error for a .998 fielding percentage and had more total chances than both.
To top it off, Fenway is a much more difficult CF to play, and he had dozens of highlight (and a few game-saving) catches.
Ichiro was incredible, can't argue that one.
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| | | 59 | Electroman
ID: 73332719
Tue, Nov 06, 2007, 18:45
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Gold Gloves are awared a lot on offense and your reputation. I remember when Orlando Cabrera won his first GG, it was Maury Wills that did a lot of lobbying for him. Without that, being in Montreal, I don't think that people would have noticed his great play that year. I guess that Crisp didn't get talked up enough. He also had a pretty slow start to the year, but turned it on later.
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| | | 60 | ¤ Mario LeMoose ¤
ID: 391033519
Tue, Nov 06, 2007, 20:20
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National League 2007 Gold Glove Winners
C ... Russell Martin, LAD
1B ... Derrek Lee, ChC
2B ... Orlando Hudson, Ari
SS ... Jimmy Rollins, Phi
3B ... David Wright, NYM
OF ... Carlos Beltran, NYM
OF ... Aaron Rowand, Phi
OF ... Jeff Francoeur, Atl
P ... Greg Maddux, SD
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| | | 61 | Rendle
ID: 449391213
Wed, Nov 07, 2007, 10:17
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I haven't watched much of Crisp this year but I don't know how you can give a gold glove to anyone over Torii Hunter. All year Grady was unbelievable. I watched alot of Indians games when Grady and Coco played next to each other and Coco was a level below Grady.
An error here and there is acceptable when you're making many extraordinary plays and assists are overrated because many base runners don't attempt the extra base when a top notch outfielder has the ball. That's why Manny always has a bunch of assists and I think Soriano was near the top of the league the first year he went to the outfield.
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| | | 62 | Great One
Sustainer
ID: 053272014
Wed, Nov 07, 2007, 10:43
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Part II - someone tell me how David Wright won a Gold Glove?!
from an Indian's message board
Rob Neyer, whose opinion I greatly respect, writes today about the "Three Big Biases" that affect Gold Glove voting: voting for past winners (even when they stopped being great fielders), voting for superstars (i.e. great hitters like Derek Jeter), and looking at fielding percentage. So I found it interesting what he wrote today about this year's selections. He had quite a bit to criticize about the selections, but this is what he wrote about the AL outfielders:
It's another year, which means more awards for Ichiro and Torii Hunter. So they win as repeaters, and Grady Sizemore wins because he was on the cover of Sports Illustrated. It's a shame the voters didn't realize just how well Coco Crisp and Curtis Granderson were playing this year.
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| | | 63 | Great One
Sustainer
ID: 053272014
Wed, Nov 07, 2007, 10:46
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And Crisp made some INCREDIBLE catches this year, including the one that put them in the World Series. Its not like he was just taking it easy and thats why he didn't have any errors.
And is there a more difficult CF to play than Fenway? probably in Houston - but thats about it.
And I agree about Granderson too - he was great.
I'm not dissing Grady - all 3 were are great choices, I guess I just think Crisp was a bit better. Just not enough spots I guess.
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| | | 64 | Rendle
ID: 449391213
Wed, Nov 07, 2007, 10:51
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Forgot about Granderson, he's way up there too. Looks like all the candidates are center fielders. It would be pretty much impossible if they had to pick one guy from each OF position.
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| | | 65 | Razor
ID: 136523110
Wed, Nov 07, 2007, 10:52
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Martin is a good defensive catcher but is not the best defensive catcher in the league. He calls a great game, does a fine job blocking the plate and throws out a solid amount of runners, but he still gave up a lot of SB's and airmailed many throws. Not sure Andruw Jones deserved one either.
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| | | 66 | Great One
Sustainer
ID: 053272014
Wed, Nov 07, 2007, 11:01
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Yeah, OF just seems to be all encompassing. Ichiro played an amazing CF too.
LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. - David Wright deserves all kinds of praise for his 2007 season, but winning a Gold Glove Award at third base? That apparently even surprised the Mets.
Wright and Carlos Beltran both were awarded Gold Gloves Tuesday, with Beltran getting the honor for a second straight year. Wright had 21 errors, fifth most in the National League. When Robin Ventura won the award as a Met in 1999, he had nine errors. Wright's error total was the most by an NL third baseman who won since Ken Caminiti's 24 in '97. The award is voted on by the league's managers and coaches.
so who should it be? I guess these guys weren't as exciting... a google search turns up someone else's analysis -
David Wright makes more WOW! plays, but I think his defense isn't as good as other people say, he had a .954 and 21 errors. I say it comes between these guys.
Pedro Feliz
Chipper Jones
Scott Rolen
In selected categories this how they ranked.
FPCT:
1: Pedro Feliz
2: Chipper Jones
3: Scott Rolen
Errors (least)
1: Chipper Jones
2: Scott Rolen
3: Pedro Feliz
Range Factor
1: Scott Rolen
2: Pedro Feliz
3: Chipper Jones
Zone Rating
1: Pedro Feliz
2: Scott Rolen
3: Chipper Jones
So if each player gets two points for getting first, one point for getting second, and non for third. Here's who leads.
Pedro Feliz: 5
Scott Rolen: 4
Chipper Jones: 3
I'm going with Pedro Feliz.
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| | | 67 | Nerfherders
ID: 501035289
Wed, Nov 07, 2007, 11:52
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Wow that NL list is an absolute sham. The Rockies led the league and had the best fielding percentage in MLB history and yet not a single one wins a gold glove? Tulowitzki I felt was a shoe-in for the GG this year - easily the best defensive shortstop in the NL. As good as Francouer is, Andruw is still better. And David Wright. Dont even get me started.
I seem to get worked up over this every year but I guess because Tulo didnt win one this year I am even more pissed at these selections. Also Andruw was even better defensively this year than his last two seasons, but I guess because he only hit .210 he cant be as good right? How ridiculous.
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| | | 68 | Seattle Zen
ID: 49112418
Wed, Nov 07, 2007, 12:11
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The Rockies led the league and had the best fielding percentage in MLB history and yet not a single one wins a gold glove?
That was the first thing that entered my mind, as well. I have never liked the Gold Glove awards, they occasionally make the right call, but there are glaring mistakes every year.
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| | | 69 | blue hen
ID: 16322314
Wed, Nov 07, 2007, 15:13
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What about when Mr. Steroids played 27 games at 1B and won. Seriously, these are a real sham.
However, I don't think "Fielding Percentage" should be our crowning metric.
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| | | 70 | Perm Dude
ID: 16105679
Wed, Nov 07, 2007, 15:18
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I agree with Zen. Being from Cleveland, I remember all too often the sting of a Gold Gloves award going to better known players with weaker stats.
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| | | 71 | Great One
Sustainer
ID: 053272014
Wed, Nov 07, 2007, 15:50
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like Jeter.
I agree about Tulowitzki, he plays a great SS. At least with him (like Crisp/Granderson) somebody credible - Jimmy Rollins - won. Perhaps mostly because he's a "name brand" but at least he's a good SS.
Now if he Tulowitkzi played 3B and lost to David Wright... lol!
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| | | 72 | Great One
Sustainer
ID: 053272014
Mon, Nov 12, 2007, 15:11
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NEW YORK (AP) --
Ryan Braun won the NL Rookie of the Year award in one of the closest votes, while
Dustin Pedroia ran away with the AL honor Monday.
Braun, Milwaukee's slugging third baseman, edged Colorado shortstop Troy Tulowitzki by two points in balloting by the Baseball Writers' Association of America.
Pedroia, the little Boston second baseman with the big swing, easily topped Tampa Bay outfielder Delmon Young. Voting was done before Pedroia helped lead the Red Sox to the World Series title.
Called up from Triple-A in late May, Braun hit .324 with 34 home runs and 97 RBIs. The Brewers led the majors in homers this season and stayed in contention for the NL Central championship until the final week.
Braun got 17 of the 32 first-place votes and finished with 128 points. Tulowitzki received 15 first-place votes and had 126 points.
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| | | 73 | Khahan
ID: 486552412
Mon, Nov 12, 2007, 15:55
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I found the RoY votes very odd. Yes, TT had a nice year for the Rockies and helped them immensely on defense. But RoY doesn't often value that so I assumed Braun would run away with it.
In the AL, I figured it would be a very close vote and Pedroia got the run away. Hard to argue either way, imho. I picked Young for the AL, but I figured the AL results would be very close and almost a toss up.
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| | | 75 | Perm Dude
ID: 2110241111
Mon, Nov 12, 2007, 16:04
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I picked Young as well, but both are very good picks. And there was more competition in the NL ROY than I expected.
Tomorrow should be interesting, as the AL CYA winner is announced.
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| | | 76 | Khahan
ID: 221026129
Tue, Nov 13, 2007, 14:15
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AL Cy Young - Rubbish I say. Rubbish!!! j/k'ing.
Congratz to Sabathia. That one was truly a toss up and you can't go wrong with Sabathia as the winner.
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| | | 77 | Seattle Zen
ID: 49112418
Tue, Nov 13, 2007, 14:17
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C.C. Sabathia wins AL Cy Young award
Congrats, CC. Funny how often the scenario of CC and Josh happens: A close race for an award, the guy who eventually wins performs poorly in the playoffs while the bridesmaid shines.
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| | | 78 | holt
ID: 129202215
Tue, Nov 13, 2007, 17:19
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no gold glove for Chris Duncan? wtf
Delmon Young #2 A.L. RoY? The only positive stat he possesses is the 93 RBI. 65 runs, 26 BB in almost 700 PA. .316 OBP, .408 slug. Only 13 HR for a guy who is supposed to be a slugger. Not very impressive.
Dice-K had 15 wins, over 200 K's. Bannister was 12-9 (for the Royals!), 3.87 ERA, 1.21 whip. Both should be ahead of Delmon Young in my opinion.
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| | | 79 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Wed, Nov 14, 2007, 14:22
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MOY announced today. Wedge & Melvin
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| | | 80 | Perm Dude
ID: 361055149
Wed, Nov 14, 2007, 15:00
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Only 13 HR for a guy who is supposed to be a slugger
Anyone who thinks Young was supposed to be a slugger wasn't paying much attention. He hit 25 dingers in single A, but fell to the mean after that, with 20 in AA, then 14 in AAA. He's got a little pop and a bit of speed. You'll never see him batting cleanup but he's a very good #3 hitter.
If there was a big disappointment it is the lack of stolen bases, but as a #3 hitter he wasn't given the green light too much.
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| | | 81 | GoatLocker
Sustainer
ID: 060151121
Wed, Nov 14, 2007, 15:12
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Amplifying on what PD said, Delmon was never a HR hitter in High School, but did bat in the .550 / .600 range every year.
Cliff
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| | | 82 | blue hen
ID: 16322314
Wed, Nov 14, 2007, 16:06
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Come on... Melvin wasn't even the best "Melvin" in the National League - even if the other one had "General" in his title.
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| | | 83 | Nerfherders
ID: 501035289
Thu, Nov 15, 2007, 11:39
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I wouldve liked to see Hurdle win but I can understand Melvin - winning 90 games with a negative run differential is a very very hard thing to do. They also did it with alot of kids, no true cleanup hitter, and a suspect rotation after Webb. It's actually kind of amazing when you think about it.
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| | | 84 | blue hen
ID: 16322314
Thu, Nov 15, 2007, 16:36
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In a shocking development - Peavy wins Cy Young Award!
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| | | 86 | Perm Dude
ID: 361055149
Thu, Nov 15, 2007, 17:21
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Here is the breakdown
This table will be goofy, but here you go:
1st Max | Season Results
Rk Name Team Place Points Points Share| W-L IP ERA WHIP SO SV
+--+----------------+----+-----+------+------+-----+------+---+-----+-----+---+--+
1 C.C. Sabathia CLE 19 119 140 0.85 | 19-7 241 3.21 1.14 209
2 Josh Beckett BOS 8 86 140 0.61 | 20-7 201 3.27 1.14 194
3 John Lackey LAA 1 36 140 0.26 | 19-9 224 3.01 1.21 179
4 Fausto Carmona CLE 0 7 140 0.05 | 19-8 215 3.06 1.21 137
5 Erik Bedard BAL 0 1 140 0.01 | 13-5 182 3.16 1.09 221
5 Roy Halladay TOR 0 1 140 0.01 | 16-7 225 3.71 1.24 139
5 Johan Santana MIN 0 1 140 0.01 | 15-13 219 3.33 1.07 235
5 Justin Verlander DET 0 1 140 0.01 | 18-6 202 3.66 1.23 183
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| | | 87 | GoatLocker
Sustainer
ID: 060151121
Fri, Nov 16, 2007, 12:45
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BH 84
Only shocking part of it might be that he got all of the 1st place votes making it unanimous.
Cliff
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| | | 88 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Tue, Nov 20, 2007, 14:39
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Rollins wins NL MVP.
Complete BS. If the Mets didn't choke, how many votes would Holliday have won it by?
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| | | 89 | Perm Dude
ID: 331041209
Tue, Nov 20, 2007, 14:45
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Wow. Never thought he'd win it, though I thought he'd get some votes.
He wasn't even on the 2007 All Star team.
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| | | 90 | Seattle Zen
ID: 49112418
Tue, Nov 20, 2007, 18:12
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I don't even think Rollins is the most valuable player on his TEAM, much less the league. Holliday was stone cold ROBBED!
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| | | 91 | Perm Dude
ID: 331041209
Tue, Nov 20, 2007, 18:47
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2007 vote
It was actually pretty close.
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| | | 92 | Nerfherders
ID: 501035289
Wed, Nov 21, 2007, 11:30
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I know it's used as an excuse alot, but I am going to chalk this one up to east coast bias. I think Holliday was the clear MVP.
The Rockies were really robbed in the awards this year. The best field % in history and no gold gloves, Tulo missing out on ROTY and Holliday missing MVP.
At least they have a little thing called a National League Pennant. :)
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| | | 93 | blue hen
ID: 16322314
Wed, Nov 21, 2007, 12:08
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Holliday was pretty great, but remember that Rollins hit quite well from a much scarcer position. Who were the other best outfielders in the NL? There seem to have been a lot of good ones. Shortstops? Hanley, sure. Reyes, maybe. Then what? Look at some of the guys starting at short.
That said, as you can see in posts 2 and 22, Utley had my vote. In my opinion, he was better than either Rollins or Holliday, even if he missed time.
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| | | 94 | Perm Dude
ID: 5810352218
Thu, Nov 22, 2007, 20:06
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Rollins would not have gotten it, IMO, without the 30 dingers. That's a pretty good number. 27-28 home runs and he doesn't get MVP, IMO.
I thought he'd get some votes because he fills out the stat sheet.
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| | | 95 | GO in Hilton Head
ID: 2210371810
Fri, Nov 23, 2007, 10:31
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I believe I got everything right in post #1 except Josh Beckett instead of CC... and I was right as I did pick the best pitcher in baseball.
The playoffs proved that on both sides.
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| | | 96 | Razor
ID: 136523110
Tue, Nov 27, 2007, 11:48
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I know it's used as an excuse alot, but I am going to chalk this one up to east coast bias. I think Holliday was the clear MVP.
Looking at a list of recent Cy Young and MVP winners, there are more West Coast and Midwest winners than East Coast winners by far.
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| | | 97 | Great One
Sustainer
ID: 053272014
Tue, Nov 27, 2007, 12:14
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I believe there is a Coors Field bias as well... whether its accurate anymore (humidor) or not.
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| | | 98 | Razor
ID: 136523110
Tue, Nov 27, 2007, 12:38
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According to Baseball Prospectus, Holliday was the 8th best hitter in the NL on a per PA basis after adjusting for home park.
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| | | 99 | blue hen
ID: 16322314
Tue, Nov 27, 2007, 13:11
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Who were the top 7? Any shortstops or 2Bs in there? I bet Chipper and Wright are both there.
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| | | 101 | blue hen
ID: 16322314
Thu, Dec 06, 2007, 10:19
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Hmm. I wonder how you happened to find that site.
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| | | 102 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Thu, Dec 06, 2007, 14:50
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It's in my feed reader. I'm man enough to say it. :)
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