|
| Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Fri, Mar 07, 2008, 10:48
This thread will be for managers in the RotoGuru Invitational Baseball Challenge to provide the rationale for each pick.
Here are the ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.)
2. Try to keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information. In particular, please avoid mentioning the names of any players who are still undrafted at that time of the post.
Please post your ( 2 round lagged) comments at the time you make your pick. For example, you should post your comments for your round 1 pick when you make your round 3 selection. If you are not ready to post at that time, then create a "placeholder" so that the next person is able to go ahead in sequence. When your post is ready, simply post it in the draft discussion thread and a moderator can copy it over.
If possible, please draft your rationale at the time your are making that pick. Not only does that allow you to remember your thoughts "in the moment", but it also makes it simple to copy and paste it when it is due, avoiding unnecessary delays and/or placeholders.
If your rationale is due and intervening placeholders have not been inserted, please insert them before posting your rationale. Simply post something like "2.10 placeholder for Guru". This makes it easy for me (or any moderator) to splice the eventual rationale in the proper place.
3. If you are providing rationales after a placeholder has been inserted, then post it in the draft discussion thread, and someone will copy it over.
4. Once the draft is over, each manager is also encouraged to provide a general draft recap, at which time you can discuss your overall strategy, mention any undisclosed factors, comment on what worked out well and what didn't, etc.
The general format should be:
1.01 Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY
Several sentences of rationale.
In addition, along with your first player rationale, please comment on your rationale for your selection of draft order. |
| | | 1 | Building 7
ID: 471052128
Fri, Mar 07, 2008, 12:17
|
1.01 Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY
He seemed like the consensus #1 pick in every draft. Also looked at H. Ramirez and Reyes. My number one pick has never worked out in the RIBC. Maybe this year it will. My biggest concern with him is he gets connected to the steroid stuff. My predictions...big OPS and 20 SB's.
I had the #4 selection for draft slots and got the #1 pick. I don't like picking at the turn, I don't like my waiver position, and I don't like watching 31 players go off the board between picks. But I get the #1 pick and I get first pick in the 25th round and don't have to pick last in the 26th round, because there is none. The first round was deep this year IMO. I tried to trade this pick down, but had no takers.
|
|
| | | 2 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Fri, Mar 07, 2008, 12:33
|
7th draft choice selection, #2 draft pick.
I was happy taking #2 as it worked out pretty well for me last year, so why not try it again. At least if I make a bad pick it is my own fault. I also figured the player I wanted wouldn't be available at #6 which was the next highest, but I didn't take him anyway.
1.01 Albert Pujols, 1B, STL
David Wright was the guy I was going to take all along. Looking through other RIBC drafts Pujols was almost like an afterthought it seemed. This league uses obp and slg so what's not to like Pujols except for rumored surgery. He says he feels great and I certainly like taking a 'stud' coming off of career low numbers, expecially when those numbers still beat almost everybody else. I don't really care that no other leagues liked Pujols this high and I would rather go with someone I like to follow (see my handle) and that has a huge upside as to root for a Met.
If Pujols steals 10 bases like he is capable of then it will be even better. Wright had obvious advantages with a better team, but I'm betting that Pujols outperforms him in this format.
|
|
| | | 3 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 07, 2008, 13:10
|
for Uptown Bombers
1.03 Jose Reyes, SS, NYM
First, on draft position. I got lucky enough and got the third choice. I assumed that one of the first two managers would take the first slot, and so when I sent of my request list to Guru via email, I placed first at the top of my choices, though I didn’t necessarily want the first pick. When I came home from work and saw I was up, I noticed that the first pick was still available, so hurriedly emailed Guru to let him know that I would make my own choice. After second guessing myself, and almost taking the first pick, I decided to take pick 3, as I saw 2 players after ARod that I really wanted. This year though, there are lots of good players in the first round, so it’s hard to say if this will work out for me.
Now, on to Jose. I had this pick narrowed down between Hanley Ramirez and Reyes. Certainly Wright was considered, but I wanted to fill a MI slot first. That also brings up Utley, but I also wanted to get a jump on steals. So, Reyes and Ramirez. I was sort of hoping that my choice would be made for me, but STLCards took Pujols, so that left me with a tough decision. Ultimately, I decided that Reyes was due to bounce back from last year, and I am hoping for numbers somewhere between 2006 and 2007. If he can bring up his power numbers, his added steals will come in handy as the draft proceeds. And I am a huge Met fan, so watching Reyes everyday and knowing that his stats will be helping me out in this league gives me added entertainment. That said, I would have been pretty happy with Ramirez too.
|
|
| | | 4 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 07, 2008, 13:11
|
for coldwater coyotes
1.04 Hanley Ramirez, SS, Fla
A very pleasant surprise to see Hanley available. I had planned to take Utley, but somebody had the guts to take Pujols in his rightful second pick position.
|
|
| | | 5 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 07, 2008, 13:12
|
for Bash Brothers
1.05 David Wright, 3B, NYM
Draft position: had the 2nd choice to pick the draft position;
Five is my lucky number, as I stole A. Rod (Rd 1), Fielder (Rd 6), and Granderson (Rd 14) from that slot in my AAA league last year. Their dominant play carried me here. So I decided to pick 5th again.......Well, just kidding.
On more reasonable thought, I had A. Rod, Reyes, Wright, H. Ramirez, and Utley as my top-tier players. A. Rod is the best of the best, but I never feel comfortable picking at the turn of the draft. So I decided to take the fifth slot to grab either one. I was considering about picking 6th or 7th (taking chances that Cabrera/Santana would be picked earlier), but in this league, there was little margin for error. The first-round pick is usually the cornerstone you built your team around. I didn't want to start the draft in a regretful mood.
[On hind sight, it might not be a good idea to pick behind someone named Guru in even rounds.]
1.05 A. Rod, err... D. Wright
Speaking of my pick, I felt great when Wright was available. He is a 5-tool player and help you in every category. The aging and injury-prone Delgado around him is a concern (the "expected" annual injury to Alou makes things even worse), and Cabrera in a more potent lineup gets me thinking twice. But those 30 steals are too appealing, and the Mets still get Reyes and Beltran. Considering his young age, I am banking on him being my poor man's A. Rod this year.
|
|
| | | 6 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 07, 2008, 13:13
|
Pick 6
When I chose my draft position, the choices were 6, 11, and 13-16. I opted for 6, figuring that I would probably get Utley. Waiting until the end would probably result in a pick of a 1B or outfielder, and I thought the positional advantage of getting one of the top middle infielders was worth the cost of delaying my second round pick.
1.06 Chase Utley, 2B, Phi
I figured the top 5 picks would probably be (in no particular order) ARod, H. Ramirez, Reyes, Wright, and either Utley, Holliday, or Santana. Pujols going at pick #2 pick was a bit of a surprise, although it certainly doesn’t seem like a major stretch.
Utley had a monster season last year, in spite of missing 30 games with a broken hand. His HRs per AB were down last year, but his slugging percentage of .566 was his career high. At age 29, there is no reason to expect his results to be diminishing yet. It would be nice to have more steals from a middle infielder, but he should still get 10+.
Holliday might put up better overall numbers, but there is more depth among outfielders.
Johan Santana was tempting, as the switch to a friendlier park in the NL should be to his advantage. But I have historically gotten respectable pitching results by waiting, and I thought the benefits of landing the top second baseman warranted taking Utley.
|
|
| | | 7 | Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Fri, Mar 07, 2008, 15:22
|
Pick 7 I was hoping for the 9th or 10th selection. I think the first round went 10 deep and would have been happy with any of those 10 (although I wanted Wright the most). When I left town, I sent Guru a queue that went 10, 9, 7, 6. I wanted to ensure the highest 2nd round pick while getting a player in that top tier. In hindsight, I could have taken the 11th pick and still got one of my top ten. I would be happier right now with Braun/Beltran.
1.07 Miguel Cabrera
Miggy is making a return visit to the Polacks, while also joining my favorite team in real life. What's not to like about him? He's 25, with 4 seasons of future HOF track record. Last season his OB% was over .400 and SLG over .560. With 100 R/RBI that is a fantastic base. He's also moving to a better hitting environment for right-handed hitters (at least according to Strat). Sure SB would be nice, but I just have good feeling he goes crazy on the AL this season with a .400/.600/120/120 line.
I also considered Holliday and Braun. I backed off Holliday because I feel like 2007 was probably a career year for him. I expect Holliday to be very good, just something more in line with his 2006 season. If Holliday played 3B he probably would have been my pick.
Braun's splits scared me. He SLG .964 vs lefties and .526 against righties. I can't imagine that he continues to crush lefties that way. That said, I actually had his name on my screen at one point due to those 15 SB. We'll see how it turns out. Hopefully Miggy outperforms him.
Santana was the highest ranked player on my draft board, but I couldn't bring myself to pull the trigger. There are only so many players with 100 R/RBI's. I knew that by drafting a pitcher so early, I'd be struggling the rest of the way to catch up in hitting.
|
|
| | | 9 | JL
ID: 10237717
Fri, Mar 07, 2008, 18:49
|
1.08 Johan Santana, SP, NYM
With this pick I broke what I like to call the chris carpenter rule. I normally avoid SP in the first few rounds, but I felt the potential value of Santana at 8 was too much to pass up. We all know the projections for the leagues best pitcher on a much better team in a much better park. Therefore, I'm sure he trips in the clubhouse after his first start and misses the season.
|
|
| | | 10 | JL
ID: 10237717
Fri, Mar 07, 2008, 18:51
|
1.09 Matt Holliday, OF, Col
I originally expected Pujols to slide to this slot due to his injury concerns, but I was pleasantly surprised when Holliday fell in my lap. His numbers were incredible last season, he’s improved with every season, and he’s only 28 years old. I am slightly worried that last season may have been a bit fluky, though, since some of his peripherals point towards that. Even with that concern, Holliday was a no-brainer for me.
|
|
| | | 11 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 07, 2008, 18:55
|
for Dave R
Pick 10
When choosing draft slots, I could have picked as high as 6th. I knew Reyes and Hanley would have been snared by then. I wanted the 3rd of the big three SS's and felt Rollins would be around at ten.
1.10 Jimmy Rollins SS Phi
Actually, having targeted Rollins, Holliday almost fell into my lap. I would have been glad to switch gears. But it wasn't meant to be.
Lets face it, Hanley, Reyes and Rollins are fantasy monsters at a scarce position. No doubt that adds to their value.
Hmmm.... Rollins, National League MVP, 139 Runs, 75 RBI's, 41 Stolen bases, what's not to like. He set career bests on slugging and OPS. As a middle infielder. Durable (knock on wood) , Rollins has reached 700 plate appearances is 6 of 7 years.
At 29 he should be able to sustain those numbers
|
|
| | | 12 | dror
ID: 5283329
Fri, Mar 07, 2008, 19:30
|
Pick 11
It's not like I had too many different options, only 11 and 13-16 were open when it was my turn to choose and I decided to go near the middle as possible because I think picking near the corners can be problematic in a 16 team league. If I had better luck in the draw I probably would have taken the 4th or 5th pick and go after David Wright.
1.11 Ryan Braun, 3B, MIL
It might not be Wright, but it's deffenetly close. Braun comes of an historical rookie season and there is no reason to beleive he won't be just as good this year. He should also conribute about 15-20 steals and has some position flexabilty (he is moving to the outfield). Bill James Projects him to go .383/.660/121/122/20, and I will be more the happy with those numbers.
I was planing to pick David Ortiz in case Braun was gone.
|
|
| | | 13 | Blue Hen
Leader
ID: 057721710
Fri, Mar 07, 2008, 21:53
|
12th pick
I saw breaks after #10 and #22. I wanted to get one of A-Rod, Pujols, Hanley, Wright, Reyes, Utley, Howard, Ortiz, Cabrera, or Holliday. I figured if I took pick 12, someone would take Braun and Santana before I went, so I could get one of my guys and still be around for the top 22.
1.12 - Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI
... And that's exactly what happened. Someone even took Jimmy Rollins so I could choose between Howard and Ortiz. I took Howard and I expect it to be a fun year for my Phillies and for my RIBC team.
|
|
| | | 14 | Taxman
Leader
ID: 057721710
Fri, Mar 07, 2008, 21:54
|
Draft Position 13
I won this slot by having the 13th choice of draft slots and 1-12 had already been taken. For me, the first 20 picks (except for some MI and CI) were all reasonably attractive. I wanted to be as near the middle as possible, thus “Lucky 13” as close as I could get to studville.
1.13 - David Ortiz, 1B, BOS
The depth of the 1st round of the draft proved out as I caught the a$$end of studville. The choice came down to old been there producer Ortiz and the young phenomena Fielder. Being a bit on the gray side myself and believing in the “bird-in-the-hand” theory, I concluded that proven experience was more valuable than probable continued brilliance. Ortiz will produce his 5th consecutive year above .590 Slg% and above .380 OBP while plating 125 RBI’s and scoring another 110. Nary a Stolen Base. He is a stud 4 tool hitter and his quality at bats will continue as pitchers prefer to not pitch around him because of Manny Ramirez. Another great left handed Fenway hitter.
|
|
| | | 15 | Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Fri, Mar 07, 2008, 21:55
|
1.14 ~ Prince Fielder, 1B, MIL
When you pick 14th, you can only guess who’ll fall to you, and I expected that person to be Ryan Braun. But I’m plenty happy with Fielder. He’s just a 23-year old, and hit 50 homers last season. I’m hoping for a .385 OBP (.395 in 2007), .595 SLG (.618 in 2007), 120 RBIs, and 100 runs. Sure these numbers are a bit conservative from last year, but they are still are plain sick for pick #14, and if he does better, I’ll feel great.
I certainly considered Carl Crawford & Grady Sizemore, but looking forward into the 2nd round (only 4 picks until me again) I saw mostly OFers in that next tier, so I wanted to avoid starting the draft with 2 OFers.
|
|
| | | 16 | slackjawed yokel
Leader
ID: 01584348
Fri, Mar 07, 2008, 22:38
|
1.15 Grady Sizemore, OF, CLE
I wanted to get a solid hitter here in the first round to anchor my team. The guys at scarcer positions that I would have quickly taken (the top 3b, ss, 1b) were gone, so I debated between Sizemore and Vladdy. You pretty much know what you'll get from Vlad, but I opted for Sizemore as he is still just 25 and should be improving -- plus he'll get me 30 steals.
|
|
| | | 17 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Fri, Mar 07, 2008, 22:40
|
Pick 16 - By virtue of having last selection in the draft position drawing, slot 16 was what was leftover. I am not really fond of picking on the ends but we'll see how it goes. The good news is I have top waiver priorirty, of course that could make me trigger shy to lose such a good position, unless it is a solid player.
1.16 - Mark Teixeira, 1B, Atl
Carl Crawford was on the still on the board, and I did not expect him to be one of my options. But like Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn during the NFL draft, I had to leave Carl sitting in the green room a little longer waiting for his name to be called. I went with Tex because of what he will contribute to 4 offensive categories. He missed a months worth of games last year and scored 86 and drove in 105. Those are career lows. Teixeira's SLG has been huge every season and another year hovering around .540 is not an unreasonable expectation, plus he ended with over .400 OBP last season. His numbers spiked in his 50+ games with Atlanta last year, and I'm hoping for more of the same. Low risk, high payout players who can deliver numbers like this are only available in the first couple of rounds This being the last year of his contract is another factor, historically it seems to lead to career high numbers. His agent Scott Boras hopes to be seeing big numbers, as do I.
2.01 - Alfonso Soriano, OF, Chi
This was a tougher choice as his numbers match up pretty comparably with Crawford, except I'll be giving up about 20-30 extra steals for a significantly larger SLG and perhaps gaining 10-20 runs and RBIs. Both have comparable lower than desirable OBP for top 20 picks. It could be a mis-step but I ultimately decided to chose RBI and slugging over huge steals production, and Sori will still swipe a couple of dozen on top of his hitting contributions. Also briefly considered Jake Peavy at this spot, but with 30 players - almost all likely to be hitters - falling off the board before my next pick, I felt it important to get two productive hitters at the turn that could provide solid anchors to my offense.
|
|
| | | 18 | Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 425869
Fri, Mar 07, 2008, 22:48
|
2.02 Vlad Guerrero, OF, LAA
Well, last round I was debating between Vlad and Sizemore, and now I had a chance to get them both. I also thought about getting Peavy here to get an early start on my rotation. However, I've been burned in the past with taking pitchers early only to see them get hurt, so I'll wait on this.
|
|
| | | 19 | Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Fri, Mar 07, 2008, 23:07
|
2.03 ~ Carl Crawford, OF, TAM
So I just drafted a player who could hit 50 HRS (Fielder), so why not draft a player now who can steal 50 bases? It’s taken me five years, but I’ve finally decided that Crawford will never learn to take many walks (only 5% BB/AB in 2007). His OBP was .355 in 2007, but he has improved in this category every season, so I’m looking for a .365. I have to depend on his improving BA to generate my OBP and steal opportunities. I’m also hoping that he will keep improving his power stroke as he comes into his prime years, maybe stroking 20 HRs, and giving me a SLG of .500.
I selected Crawford with the 11th pick in 2007 RIBC, but he slipped to pick #19 this year. Did Crawford regress, or did the rest of the MLB get better.
|
|
| | | 20 | dror
ID: 5283329
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 03:32
|
2.04 Carlos Lee, OF, HOU
Hard choice which is good because great talent remained on the board. Peavy was an option, but I just hate to miss out on the good hitters available in the early rounds. My first thoughts went to scarcity positions but was only attracted to Cleveland clean up hitter, back stop, Victor Martinez. As an IROD fan during his years in Texas, I was introduced to the Achilles heel of catchers. The last two months of the season. (actually, if you played in Texas, the whole season usually sucked) Victor gets to play a bit at first, but most any squatting will take it’s toll eventually. Giving up on scarcity, I quickly settled on Carlos Lee who had near stud history in 4 categories and was a plus in the 5th , Steals. He adapted well last year to the convertible dome in Houston. Like Ortiz, Lee has put up consistent good numbers for 5 years running and again should produce 100+ R and RBI and over 30 HRs to support a .550 Slg%. His OBA will be in the .360 range with double digit steals.
|
|
| | | 21 | dror
ID: 5283329
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 03:32
|
for blue hen
2.05 Jake Peavy, SP, SD
The top 22 were about as expected, and someone even took Carlos Lee. So it came down to Beltran, Peavy, or Hafner, as I expected. I chose Peavy because he can really anchor my pitching the way Howard can anchor my hitting.
|
|
| | | 22 | dror
ID: 5283329
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 03:52
|
2.06 B.J Upton, 2B/OF, TB
One of the things I allways try to avoid in roto baseball is to end up with "steals only" players. I don't like spending spots in my the lineup on negative OBP/SLG and allmost no RBIs.
Upton gives me exactly what I need in order to achieve that. If he stays healthy all season, he has a great chance to go 30/30, and from the cleanup spot in a much improved Rays lineup it should translate into strong RBI/R totals as well. He is also much better in OBP then people give him credit for, having a 12.5% BB rate last year and averaging more then 4 pitches per AB. He does strikes out a lot, but that's not really an issue in this type of league.
I think .380/.500/100/100/30 is a fair projection for him, and along with Ryan Braun he gives me a great foundation in all 5 hitting categories.
|
|
| | | 23 | JL
ID: 1525189
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 10:53
|
2.07 Carlos Beltran, OF, NYM
There is a trend here that is starting to be bothersome. In this round I really wanted one of Teixeira, Soriano, or Upton and thought one would be available. Round 3, I thought one of Markakis, D. Lee or Morneau would be available. And round 4, thought for sure Swisher or Pena would be around.
Nope, nope and nope.
As much as it pains me to have to root for a Met, Beltran is a solid choice, if healthy. Hopefully he will have a full recovery from surgery to both knees last October. If all goes well, Carlos is capable of over 100 runs scored and RBI's. Toss in 25 SB's and a solid OPS.
All I ask is for him to be near 100% health wise. That's not to much to ask, is it?
|
|
| | | 24 | JL
ID: 1525189
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 11:04
|
2.08 Lance Berkman, 1B/OF, Hou
I considered taking Ichiro, Dunn, and Hafner with this pick, but decided to go with the consistency that Berkman provides. He has played in at least 150 games 6 of his last 7 seasons while consistently posting a .900+ OPS. With the addition of Tejada, albeit a roid-less Tejada, Berkman should be very productive once again. He also fills a 1B position that isn't as deep as it once was.
|
|
| | | 27 | RoBoGuRu
ID: 53123191
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 13:08
|
2.09 Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cin
And my unorthodox draft continues. After not taking a hitter in round one, I needed to address that. I went with Phillips because he was the best at his position available in my mind, and that position was one that I felt I wanted to address early in the draft. His power numbers won't approach other position players going in the second round, but should be near the top of the 2B class. I also like getting some SB from an early round middle infielder.
|
|
| | | 26 | Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 13:06
|
2.10 Adam Dunn, OF, CIN
Dunn is making his 3rd consecutive appearance on the Polack’s roster. Each year I’ve had to draft him a round earlier, but so far he’s been worth the price. Last year he was the 19th most valuable hitter using our scoring format. At 28, I see no reason not to expect more of the same. .380/.550/100/100, that’s what I’m hoping for. I’m slightly concerned about him being traded out of the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark. I’m hoping the Reds have a surprisingly successful season and they remain in contention through the deadline.
Other considerations, Brian Roberts. It would have been nice to shore up steals here, but again, similar to Santana last round. I was concerned about where that would leave me in the R/RBI competition.
|
|
| | | 28 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 13:21
|
2.11 Victor Martinez, C,
This might be a little too high to be taking Victor. And I wasn’t really planning on drafting him this season, not due to performance concerns, but because I thought I would go for bigger hitters at the point in the draft when Victor would be drafted.
But I can’t get comfortable that any of the available option offer better value, and I think the at least one of those options might still be there next round. Victor probably won’t. And I think I know what I’m getting with Victor, so here goes…
|
|
| | | 29 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 14:06
|
for Bash Brothers
2.12 Travis Hafner, 1B, CLE
With D. Wright anchoring my lineup, I intended to draft a non-3B slugger here. I was targeting C. Lee and Berkman in round 2 as my safe pick, thinking either one would fall to me as they were, in my opinion, middle to late 2nd round picks. Wrong, they went off board earlier than I expected. I scrambled through my depth chart and started worrying, because I didn't find anyone particularly appealing at this stage of the draft. Those under serious consideration, including Manny, Magglio, Granderson, and Hafner, had their own drawbacks. I almost jumped on one of the 2 Tigers (again because of the bats around them), but decided against buying high. Moreover, I thought Granderson should still be available when my next pick came up. The issues on Manny included age, injury, and/or attitude. So Hafner seemed the obvious choice. Although Hafner had a down year in 2007, he is still young (only 30). If he could return to his norm, then he deserves the 28th overall pick. If he redeems himself and regains his 2006 form (quite a possibility considering his resurgence last Sep), then he is my first steal of this draft. The little bonus here is that, unlike 2007, he is eligible for 1B this year.
|
|
| | | 30 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 14:07
|
for coldwater coyotes
2.13 Chipper Jones, 3B Atl
I have always been a sucker for Chipper and yet again I have taken him a round too early...but I couldn't take the risk of losing him. If only he could get 525 ABs.
|
|
| | | 31 | Uptown Bombers
Donor
ID: 035616416
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 14:11
|
2.14 Aramis Ramirez, 3B, CHC
The first of my two picks from my queue. After taking Reyes, I wanted to follow that up with two sluggers. So I left behind a list of mostly big bats, with a pitcher or two sprinkled in where I thought they were a good value. Ramirez was third in my queue behind Hafner and Dunn, both of whom I just missed out on. In hindsight, I am glad I got Ramirez though, since Chipper Jones was snatched just before him. This meant the 3B pool was being thinned, and while I like some of the other players at that position, I have Ramirez ranked above them considerably. Hopefully, Ramirez can avoid the injury bug and play a full season again, which he has done roughly, every other year. So I have that bit of superstition in my favor. 95 R, 100+RBI, and +.900 OPS.
|
|
| | | 32 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 14:55
|
2.15 Eric Bedard, SP, SEA
Bedard pitched great in Baltimore which is a hitter's park, so I imagine he could become a Cy Young contender in Seattle. I like the K's and low ERA and Whip possibilities. This pick is going along with my recent strategy of taking a SP in the second round to anchor my staff.
|
|
| | | 33 | Building 7
ID: 48033121
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 15:42
|
2.16 Ichiro Suzuki, OF, SEA
Looking for SB's here. And someone who won't kill my %'s doing it. This guy scores a lot of runs, too. Nice to get one OF out of the way since you need four. Did I mention durable. Also looked at Manny, Figgins, Jeter, and Tulowitzki
3.01 Brian Roberts,2B, BALT
I should be OK for SB's for awhile. I'm hoping to build up a lead and then trade for a better % guy. That never seems to work out, though. Something always happens to mess it up. Most people seem to go for the big OPS guys in these early rounds. It looked like the scarcity to me was in big-time SB guys that would not kill your % categories. I thought it was too early to pick a closer and none of the starters were special enough to pick this early.
|
|
| | | 34 | Uptown Bombers
Donor
ID: 035616416
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 15:55
|
for STLCards
3.02 Jonathan Papelbon, RP, BOS
When I looked over the various positions this year the one thing that jumped out at me was the closers and how thin at the top it seemed to be. I like having one of the better closers to anchor the staff in order to get saves without giving up the whip and era. My pre-draft analysis told me that I could almost certainly get one of Papelbon, Putz, or K-Rod with my 4.15 pick and I had strongly considered waiting. Problem was I was at work and busy with a project so rather than hold up the draft to think about my other option, I decided to go ahead and take Papelbon. This strategy has worked for me in the past, but I will really need to make some wise picks the rest of the way to compensate for taking players earlier than I should.
|
|
| | | 35 | Uptown Bombers
Donor
ID: 035616416
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 15:56
|
3.03 Justin Morneau, 1B, MIN
The second pick from queue comes much of the same reasoning as the first. Again, I was targeting high RBI and SLG. Morneau is coming off a disappointing year, but he is still young and should be entering his peak years. If he can hit for a better average again, like in his MVP year, then his lower than desired OBP will improve. Other than that, I have no other concerns. I knew I wanted a top tier 1B and Morneau gives me that. I also had Derrek Lee on my queue, but for reasons of age and upside, ranked Morneau higher than him.
|
|
| | | 36 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 16:04
|
for coldwater coyotes
3.04 Nick Markakis, OF, BAL
My pick for break out player for the year. No problem projecting 105 RBIs, .900 OPS and 14 SBs, but I expect even better numbers.
|
|
| | | 37 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 16:19
|
for Bash Brothers
3.05 Derek Jeter, SS, NYY
Going into this pick, none of the players I considered in round 2 were gone. I was seriously leaning toward taking Granderson. On 2nd thought, I knew that excellent MIs would be gone by the time my next pick came up again, while good OFers could still be handy. So I changed my direction. Jeter easily came out on top among the remaining IFers. He consistently plays well, possessing high OBP and respectable SLG. And he is a lock for 80 RBIs and 100 Runs. Oh, there're these steals year in and year out. Well, if I am lucky enough, I might be rewarded with premier number like this: 100/100/0.400/0.470 + 25 steals. And these targets are within reasonable reach for the past 2nd rounder who remains in his prime.
|
|
| | | 38 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 16:21
|
3.06 Manny Ramirez, OF, Bos
When stewing over my second round pick, the hitters I considered in lieu of VMart included Chipper Jones, Travis Hafner, Aramis Ramirez, Manny Ramirez, and Magglio Ordonez, and Bobby Abreu. I even started drafting a rationale for several of them, only to get part way through it and decide that I wasn’t convincing myself. I figured that some of them would still be there in round three, and Victor (who offers better value as a third rounder) would probably not, so I took Victor early in hopes of getting one of the others now. When the next three picks went Hafner, Chipper, and Aramis, I wondered if I was wrong. But I still do have a few of them to choose between after all.
Manny used to be a consensus first rounder, but fell off dramatically last year, slugging below .500, and missing a number of games late in the year due to an oblique strain. This is his contract year with the Red Sox, and for most players, I’d consider that a strong incentive for a rebound year. But with Manny, you never know what he’s thinking. It is encouraging, however, that he’s been working out regularly during the offseason, which is not normal for him. So maybe he really is dedicated to getting back to his historical norms. At age 35, he’s at the point where you wonder if the decline is in full swing, but he’s also young enough to have a few more banner years in the tank. In round three, I think it’s a worthy gamble.
I’m not expecting a return to the 1.000 OPS days. But I am expecting something better than last year’s .881. How about .400/.550 with 90 runs and 105 RBIs? I’m not piggy!
|
|
| | | 39 | JL
ID: 57252815
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 17:02
|
for Flying Polack
3.07 Derrek Lee, 1B, Chi
Lee was the second highest rated player on my board. The highest was CC Sabathia. Originally I was going to take CC, however he threw 250+ innings last year, and visibly wore down at the end of the season. I decided that was enough of an excuse for me not to take a chance on him for this season.
Lee had a huge second half. I think his first have SLG numbers we down a little bit due to the 2006 wrist injury. I expect his SLG to be up and OB to be down a bit from 2007. With a good lineup (Jim Hendry, please acquire Brian Roberts) his R/RBI’s should be strong as well. He’s solid player with just enough upside to be intriguing, and little downside, beyond the average player.
|
|
| | | 40 | JL
ID: 57252815
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 17:03
|
3.08 Curtis Granderson, OF, Det
I felt like Granderson lasted a little longer than he should've and I like his chances of a very big season in front of that loaded Detroit lineup. Plus, I felt I had to continue my unorthodox draft.
I also considered Carlos Guillen here but thought I had a chance of getting him in the next round.
|
|
| | | 41 | JL
ID: 57252815
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 17:05
|
3.09 Brandon Webb, SP, Ari
Much like the Holliday pick in the first round, I was pleasantly surprised to see Webb slide this far. I’m not going to rattle off a bunch of stats, but this guy is a stud and he rarely misses a start. I normally don’t like to take a pitcher before the fourth round because I like taking the best hitter available for the first few rounds, but I couldn’t pass up the value at this point. He's one of fantasy baseball's top 30 players. I strongly considered taking Abreu because he’s solid in all five categories, but I felt Webb was more valuable. I also briefly considered taking Magglio, Cano, Figgins, Tulowitzki, and Carlos Guillen.
|
|
| | | 44 | Dave R
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 21:10
|
3.10 Garrett Atkins, 3B, COL
Four Third Basemen were swept off the board in round 1 and a fourth in the 2nd. I really hoped for Markakis in this round but he went earlier.
After Atkins I felt there was a big drop off at the position. Although Garrett's average is significantly higher at Coors, his Power numbers are about equal away from home. So I don't view him solely as a product of " home cooking "
Maybe he can better his average on the road and improve his OPS. Two years ago he slugged a gaudy .556 and had an OBP of .409 for an OPS of .965. Last years .853 OPS wasn't to shabby. Somewhere in the middle would be sweet.
And he no doubt will reach 100 runs and RBI's. Maybe a few SB's for good measure
|
|
| | | 45 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 21:11
|
via trade with dror
3.11 Troy Tulowitzski SS Col
After my rd2 pick, I started to try to break down who may be available on the way back. I kind of liked Derek Jeter but figured he would never make it back to 3.16. I was not targeting a SS specifically, but I think all of us have played this format before and are conscious of the drop off at the MI spots. When dror offered up a trade (3.11 and 4.06 for 3.16 and 4.01) I accepted figuring maybe I'd get lucky with DJ, but perhaps have at least a good shot at a couple of the remaining MI options under consideration (Tulowitzki and Carlos Guillen). I thought accepting the trade, moving up 5 slots may make a difference and I thought moving 5 slots down on the 5th round pick would not be a huge impact. So why Troy? Like Jeets, he is going to start the season batting #2 in a lineup ahead of some serious production hitters. He should score 100+ runs. "Experts" project him to slug in the .450 and up range and drive in 100+ (may be high because that was when they thought he was batting in the 5-spot). I am not going to likely find that at the SS/2B position later on. He'll swipe 15 bags too, perhaps a few more if he stays at #2 in the order, and a .350 OBP is serviceable for a SS. Perhaps he'd have still been available at 3.16, but I'm good with the draft slot swap.
|
|
| | | 46 | blue hen
ID: 0022514
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 21:54
|
3.12 Bobby Abreu, OF, NYY
Abreu is the kind of player who always seems to wind up on fantasy championship teams. He does a bit of everything - steals bases, walks, has a little power. After trying to make a splash with Howard and Peavy, Abreu is just the kind of consistent player I need.
|
|
| | | 47 | Taxman
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 22:12
|
3.13 Carlos Guillen, SS, DET
This pick was the start of a long evening for me. I had planned on grabbing Tulowitzki with this pick and then grabbing Guillen 8 picks later at 4.4. But JeffG swapped his turnaround picks to Dror, and grabbed Tulowitzki at 3.11. Instead of having cornered the market, I was now forced to take Guillen to get one MI having 4 tool history. Guillen fell below the radar after the 2007 All Star break, but still produced nicely as a second tier SS. I expect the same or better this year as he moves over to 1b and thus should not wear down as much after the all-star break. Guillen will produce between 85-90 in both Runs and RBI's and will join 1st round picks Ramirez and Rollins (and possibly Tulowitzki) with a Slg% north of .500 and his OB% should top SS near the .380 mark. All in all, I'm quite happy with this pick.
|
|
| | | 48 | Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 22:15
|
3.14 ~ Magglio Ordonez, OF, DET
I really struggled with this pick. All the players at the top of my draft list are all 1B and OF … both of which I have covered. Players I considered were Figgins (low SLG), Cano (low OBP), and various SP & RP (plenty available later). Magglio Ordonez is getting pretty old, but had a great 2007, with a batting title and runner up in the AL MVP voting. I don’t expect him to give me .434/.595 like he produced in 2007, but hitting cleanup in a stacked Detroit lineup should produce solid numbers. More solid than anyone I saw on my draft sheet … so I drafted him.
|
|
| | | 49 | Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 425869
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 22:52
|
3.15 CC Sabathia, SP, Cle
I went ahead and picked up one of the top-tier starters here. Thought about getting Carlos Pena, but figured he or a similar 1B would make it back to me. If CC can stay healthy and continue to go 220+ innings, it should give me a leg up in K's.
|
|
| | | 50 | dror
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 23:26
|
via trade with JeffG
3.16 Carlos Pena, 1B, TB
4.01 J.J Putz, RP, SEA
I will start with the trade... basicly, I came into the draft planning to take Pena and a top closer in the 3rd and 4th rounds. With 4 of the 5 teams that I droped below of in the 3rd round allready having a 1B, I was pretty sure Pena was a safe bet to make it to 3.16. What I wan't sure about at all was that I will have a top closer at 4.06, because I figured the beginning of the 4th round is usualy where closers start to go.
As for the players themselfs... Pena comes off a monster breakout year, finishing 2007 with 46 homers and 1.037 OPS. A great example for his evolution into a top power hitter can be taken by checking his month-by-month walk rate: in April, it was a lousy 4.0%, in May 11.5%, and in the following 4 months 19.6%, 20.8%, 19.5% and 23.2%. This guy is not a secret anymore, by the end of last year pitchers feared him and he was pitched around more and more often while still slugging 13 homers in september. I beleive he is a notch below Ortiz and right on par with Fielder, Howard and Tex as far as 1B go in our format.
Projection - .390/.610/110/120/0
I know a lot of people don't like taking closers early because there are always some guys who come out of nowhere and provide saves from the WW. My problem is, that in such a large and active league, I really don't like my chances of actually getting some of those cheap saves, especially considering that I live overseas and usualy sleep when most of the action is happening. My top tier of closers this year is only 2 deep, Papelbon and Putz. With Papi taken earlier, my choise was easy.
Projection - 70 IP, 3 W, 40 S, 80 K, 2.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
|
|
| | | 51 | Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 23:32
|
4.02 Nick Swisher, 1B, CWS
|
|
| | | 52 | Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 23:32
|
4.03 ~ Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY
Cano is another player that is a free-swinger, often unwilling to take a BB. To his credit, Cano made strides in that department last season and is trending in the right direction, so a .365+ OBP seems likely. He has good power (I project a .510 SLG), but little speed (I only project 5 SBs this year). Cano has shown improvement every year in MLB, and there is no reason for him to stop showing continued improvement across the board.
|
|
| | | 53 | Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 425869
Sat, Mar 08, 2008, 23:35
|
4.2 Nick Swisher, OF, CHW
I didn't really pay attention to the trade between JeffG and dror, so expected Carlos Pena would make it back to me as Jeffg already had a first basemen. When he didn't, I debated getting a closer - namely Joe Nathan. I picked up Nathan early last year in AAA thinking that would solidify my saves, and he did do good, but I finished very low in saves cause my other closers got hurt. So, with that in the back of my mind, I looked at the position players out there. I thought about Cano, but went back to the 1B spot that I was planning anyway with Nick Swisher. Swisher is moving to a hitter's park in Chicago, so stands to improve over his solid year last year.
|
|
| | | 54 | Taxman
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sun, Mar 09, 2008, 00:44
|
4.04 Torii Hunter, OF, LAA
The story of Hunter becoming my 4th pick begins with dror, who owned pick 3.11, before trading 3rd/4th round picks with jeffG, who promptly drafted my 3.13 draft target Tulowitzki, requiring me to draft Carlos Guillen to assure credible SLG% and OBA from the SS position, which I had decided suffered the highest degree of scarcity behind Catcher. Problem is that my distorted mind, had targeted Guillen as my 4.04 pick for my MI creating more scarcity. With a little research, put together new plan of action and set a 5 player queue which turned out to be picks 3.14 through 4.02, albeit in different order. That sequence was unsettling. I had either become very adept at reading minds or done admirable research on valuing available talent and the competition in the big leagues (RIBC) was going to be pretty damn good (“You are no longer in Kansas Dorothy”). Hunter jumped out as a durable, probable 4 category producer as the LAA cleanup hitter. Hunter move to LAA results in better hitters in front of him (more RBI’) and behind him (more runs). I project Hunter to plate triple digit RBI’s and R’s (110 and 100 respectfully), hit the 20-20 club as he will have more “green light” time than he did in Minnesota, with a 475% SLG. Drawback (huge) is low OBA which has been in the .330 range the past 4 years, but I’m still pleased with this choice.
|
|
| | | 55 | blue hen
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sun, Mar 09, 2008, 00:45
|
4.05 Miguel Tejada, SS ,HOU
I could have gone in a few directions here. I could have gone for scarcity with Weeks or Tejada, or I could have gone for more firepower, with Hawpe or Helton. Or I could have gotten a closer, with Joe Nathan at the top of my list. In the end, I went with Tejada, knowing he'd give me some nice power from the middle infield. I fully expect him to thrive in Houston.
|
|
| | | 56 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sun, Mar 09, 2008, 00:46
|
via trade with dror
4.06 Josh Beckett, SP, Bos
Dropping 5 slots unfortunately put JJ Putz out of reach and I did consider K-Rod here, but decided to let him go and perhaps still get a same level RP on my next pick. Also considered similar pitcher Cole Hamels and MI eligible Chone Figgins in this spot. My RIBC track record with early pitching picks is not good, almost as reliable as the "Maddon Curse". I'd list the woes here but cannot mention undrafted players, lets just say my top P pick for several years running barely produced or had April season ending injuries. Josh Beckett should reverse this trend (and if he does not, hey even better for me as a Yankee fan). Becket is a safe pick and should win 15+ games easy, keep his ERA in the 3.5 range and should deliver about 170 Ks in 200 IP. Among only a dozen or so SPs with 200+ IP will deliver a sub 1.20 WHIP.
|
|
| | | 57 | for Dave R
ID: 53123191
Sun, Mar 09, 2008, 13:35
|
4.07 Todd Helton 1B Col
Hoping for Swisher at this point I was thwarted again. Helton is more than likely a bit of a reach at this point. I was a little fearful that the first baseman's well was running dry, although there are some serviceable players still left.
Todd's days as a feared RBI's producer seem long gone and he hasn't driven in over 100 runs since 2003, nor scored more than 100 runs since 2004.
But what he still does well is shore up the % cats. His 3 year OPS average is .923 and I see no reason that shouldn't still be the norm.
Rumors are that Todd and Holliday will flip positions in the lineup with Todd batting 3rd. With Holliday protecting him from the 4th hole, maybe Helton can reach the magical 100 runs and RBI's and if so I think this pick will turn out just fine
|
|
| | | 58 | RoBoGuRu
ID: 53123191
Sun, Mar 09, 2008, 13:35
|
for JL
4.08 Chone Figgins, 2B, LAA
I was shocked once again to see a player fall this far, which means that I'm either getting great value...or that I have absolutely no idea what I'm doing. I almost took Figgins with my 3rd round pick because I was certain that he would picked before he made it back to me. When he was still available at this point, I was starting to get worried that he had an injury in spring training that I hadn't heard about. He's a MI that steals 50 bases while only killing you in slugging. I'll take it.
|
|
| | | 59 | RoBoGuRu
ID: 53123191
Sun, Mar 09, 2008, 13:53
|
4.09 Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Was
I almost let history repeat itself. I waited way too long last year and had a revolving door at 3B for the whole season.
I'm hoping he picks up where he left off in the second half last year. I'm also hoping that the new stadium provides a bump to his RBI and SLG. I think it is very reasonable to predict 100+ RBI and Runs, an OPS that could approach .900, and a couple SB.
I considered jumping for a top level RP here, but that is why I took this draft spot. I don't want to start a run, just want to be able to respond to it when it happens. I had my eye on a certain 1B as well, but was pretty sure I could wait at least a round there.
|
|
| | | 60 | Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Sun, Mar 09, 2008, 14:15
|
4.10 Corey Hart, OF, MIL
I didn’t really consider anyone else. I was actually willing to trade up and get him, but I never got an offer. Corey will contribute in 5 categories, and finished 39th overall in hitters last season, in spite of only 500 AB’s. There’s no question about his playing time this season, and I’m very excited to have Corey back. Here’s to 650 PA’s.
|
|
| | | 61 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 09, 2008, 14:37
|
4.11 Francisco Rodriguez, RP ANA
My plan had been to take my first closer in round 4. Last year, the run on closers started in round 3, but so far, only two have been taken. I imagine that several of the five teams picking twice before my 5th rounder will grab a closer, so I think I’ll stick with the plan.
With Papelbon and Putz already gone, my short list was K-Rod, Nathan, and Wagner. Saito seemed to be comparably ranked, but his age gives me pause. Ditto for Mariano.
KRod is still young, so although his 2nd half in 2007 showed some areas of concern, I’m going to assume it is of no lasting consequence. The Angels should continue to present him with plenty of save opps. His K-ratio of 1.3 will be very helpful. Since my typical strategy is to wait until later to pick up starters, it’s important that I have some solid closers who can provide a good foundation for strikeouts and the ratio cats. Rodriguez fits that bill nicely.
|
|
| | | 62 | Uptown Bombers
Donor
ID: 035616416
Sun, Mar 09, 2008, 15:55
|
for Bash Brothers
4.12 Joe Nathan, RP MIN
Well, Guru got me lose some sleep here. I was planning to take an OFer in this round and a closer in round 5. When Guru's pick was up at around 2 am local time here, I was satisfied that things were going my way. I figured I could take Rios in round 4 and either K. Rod, Nathan, or Saito would be available for me in round 5. But Guru caught me off guard by choosing K. Rod (something I should have foreseen but inadvertently missed). After thorough meditation, I decided that I didn't want any other closers except these three, yet I could afford to use some OFers with inferior talent to Rios. So I picked Nathan (and as expected, Rios disappeared quickly).
As of Nathan, we are talking about one of the game's best. Like Jeter, he is consistently excellent and durable. The departure of Santana might decrease his save chance, but a mid-season trade could avert that. The return of Liriano does not hurt, either.
|
|
| | | 63 | Uptown Bombers
Donor
ID: 035616416
Sun, Mar 09, 2008, 15:56
|
for Coldwater Coyotes
4.13 Russell Martin, C LAD
I couldn't believe that he was still available. An absolute steal at pick 61...his ADP is 30.
|
|
| | | 64 | Uptown Bombers
Donor
ID: 035616416
Sun, Mar 09, 2008, 15:56
|
4.14 Alex Rios, OF, TOR
As this pick approached, I had 3 OF listed at the top of my list, Rios, Hart, and Pence. I really wanted to land one of them, as my rankings showed a drop in quality after them. I didn’t want to fall that far behind with OF’s since we need 4 of them to start. If all three went before my pick, I was leaning towards going with 2 SP. But of course Rios did make it me, and I feel like his is a good value pick here on top of filling a team need. He fits the typical mold of players that managers in these leagues covet. He is already a solid contributor across the board and he is entering that “magical” age range when players hit their peak. Rios has teased at superstardom the past two years. If he can finally deliver on that potential, then I’ve scored well here. If not, and he produces an average of the past two seasons, I’d still be happy. With that as my thinking, this pick was a no-brainer for my team.
|
|
| | | 65 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Sun, Mar 09, 2008, 19:31
|
4.15 Rafael Furcal, SS, LAD
I spent hours looking over this pick and finally settled on Alex Rios. I went to add him to my queue and all of a sudden he wasn't there. Then I found out why, he had just gotten taken right as I went to take him. Having missed out on Figgins earlier I decided I should start looking towards middle infield options. There were a couple of 2nd basemen I would be happy with so I decided to wait until my next pick on them and took Furcal. Hopefully he will steal bases and get runs without hurting my slugging % too much. I never like having Furcal except in h2h leagues, but I guess I'll have to make do.
|
|
| | | 66 | Building 7
ID: 48033121
Sun, Mar 09, 2008, 20:07
|
4.16 Justin Verlander, SP, DET
At this point it was 53 hitters, 6 SP, and 4 RP. Last year it was 45 hitters, 9 SP. and 9 RP. Half your stats come from pitching. I feel a run on pitchers coming. Already my staff is better than last year when I started over 30 different pitchers. Verlander should get good run support.
5.01 Chris Young, SP, SD
Sometimes I have to tell myself that I must pick a pitcher with my next pick. Or next two picks. Even if Babe Ruth is available, or, in this case, Thome, Kinsler, Mauer, Pence. or Hawpe. You must take two pitchers. Otherwise I may never pick any SP. I was hoping Nathan or K-Rod would make it to me. They didn't. After that there was a dropoff IMO. So I decided on two starters to jumpstart my staff. There were some other choices that were very close....Hamels.....Lackey......Harang......Kazmir.etc. I hope I picked a couple good ones. Chris has had some injury problems, but not to his arm. Back, oblique. He's working with Tiger Woods' trainer. Some recent stats:
2006 179 innings, 134 hits, 164 K's, .206 BAA, 1.13 WHIP
2007 173 innings, 118 hits, 167 K's, .192 BAA, 1.10 WHIP
Most rankings....the free ones anyways, have this guy rated many SP later. I don't want to take the chance of him not making it back to me. Expert, Schmexperts, I'm taking this guy.
|
|
| | | 67 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Sun, Mar 09, 2008, 21:17
|
5.02 Ian Kinsler, 2B, TX
Keeping with the MI theme I wanted to grab a 2B here. I thought about waiting but there were 2 guys left that I thought had a shot at pretty good years. Kinsler had a foot problem last year which slowed him down but he should be running more now. He also has decent pop with 14 and then 20 HR so I think his slugging could go up a bit this year as well. He won't get me great numbers in any category but should be a consistent player. I feel like he will improve this year and even if he stays the same as last year he won't be an awful 2B to have by any means.
|
|
| | | 69 | Uptown Bombers
Donor
ID: 035616416
Sun, Mar 09, 2008, 21:20
|
5.03 Cole Hamels, SP, PHI
Curses, a stinking Phillie has made my team! Other than that, there wasn’t much to not like about Hamels at this spot for this Mets fan. I knew I wanted a top SP to anchor my staff. There were still plenty of good choices available, but I wasn’t sure who would have made it back to me in round 6. So I took the one that I thought was the best. I also considered Lackey who is very steady and reliable. But Hamels is electric and if he can channel his frustration over his contract situation then he’ll give me a great start in the pitching categories.
|
|
| | | 70 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 09, 2008, 22:02
|
for coldwater coyotes
5.04 Mariano Rivera, RP, NYY
I didn't feel that I could wait any longer for a closer. At 39 years he is still an elite pitcher on a team where he will get the opportunity to give me 40 saves.
|
|
| | | 71 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 09, 2008, 22:25
|
for Bash Brothers
5.05 Rickie Weeks, 2B, MIL
When I was "forced" to take Nathan and let Rios slip to Uptown Bombers, my plan for round 5 pick was also changed. I was looking at Brad Hawpe and Hunter Pence, but thought they were just not as appealing. I decided to turn to Weeks, the 2B I'd targeted prior to this draft. Kinsler was gone 3 picks earlier, and I believed there was a huge drop-off after Weeks in this weak position. His 2007 season was marred by injury, but his number was still decent. Although his batting average was low (.240), the high walk rate made his OBP respectable. He also stole 25 bases, including 16 for 16 in the bottom half of the season. The long ball power (16 HR in ~ 400 AB) he displayed last year was also encouraging. If he stays healthy and improves his BA a bit (quite a possibility considering the meager .240 he had), he might have a huge breakout year. I am expecting 100R, 60RBI, .380/.440, and 30+ SBs. Quite an accomplishment from this difficult slot for fantasy owners.
|
|
| | | 72 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 09, 2008, 22:26
|
5.06 Brad Hawpe, OF, Col
I’m a bit surprised that not more closers disappeared since my last pick. Wagner is still available, and it’s very tempting to nab him here and really foul things up.
But I’ve had my eye on Brad Hawpe, and I think I’ll follow through with the plan. If he could only hit lefties, he’d have been taken earlier. The risk is that he ends up in a platoon situation, although I guess if that happens, he still can’t hit them and it may be a blessing in disguise. In spite of his difficulty with southpaws, he’s played in at least 150 games in each of the last two seasons, so it’s clear that the Rockies aren’t benching him too much – even though some of those games might reflect pinch hitting roles. Last year, I have him ranked as the 35th best hitter in this format, and I’m picking him as the 55th hitter in this draft. So I feel like I’m getting a bit of a discount. Hopefully, he doesn’t get traded away from Coors field. At age 28, he should be in his hitting prime.
Last year he put up 80-116-.387-.535, and I’d settle for a repeat, although some modest improvement isn’t far fetched.
|
|
| | | 73 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 09, 2008, 22:29
|
for Flying Polack
5.07 John Lackey, SP, ANA
All along I was targeting Rickie Weeks in this spot. Unfortunately he was selected two picks before me. There were still a couple OF worth considering, but I decided to get my rotation anchor. I didn’t want to go into the last 20 rounds only need 1 OF, it’s a good position for sleepers.
Once I decided on SP, the debate was between Lackey, Haren, Smoltz and Kazmir. I decided Lackey was the best bet to win 20 games, while keeping sufficient upside in the other 3 SP categories.
|
|
| | | 74 | RoBoGuRu
ID: 53123191
Sun, Mar 09, 2008, 23:45
|
5.08 Dan Haren, SP, Ari
I had 3 potential directions with this pick. First was to take one of the OFs that I felt had lasted too long. But in my mind there were a few of about equal value so rather than picking one, I disregarded that option. Second was the 1B that I considered the previous round. However, after looking at the teams that had to draft before my next pick, I saw they all had 1B already and decided that I had a really good chance to get him with my next pick (unfortunately, JL grabbed inexplicably took gonzalez with the pick b4 me). So I went with the 3rd option, a second top SP. I decided on Haren because I like his potential for a good win total, close to 180-200 Ks, and very solid ERA and WHIP numbers. I think his move to the NL should help all of those.
|
|
| | | 77 | JL
ID: 14250923
Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 02:00
|
5.09 Michael Young, SS, Tex
I felt like there was a huge dropoff in the SS position after Young and it was difficult for me to gauge exactly when some of the remaining shortstops would get picked. I didn't want to be left with garbage at this position and no other hitter stood out, so I felt this was the time to take Young. With Felix, Kazmir, Smoltz, and Oswalt still available, I expected as least one upper second-tier to be available with the next pick.
|
|
| | | 80 | Dave R
Leader
ID: 057721710
Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 02:05
|
5.10 Hunter Pence OF HOU
I resisted the urge to grab a pitcher here. I felt SP's could wait, RP's may end up being another matter.
Pence seemed like to good a value to pass on here. It was somewhat comforting to see him under consideration a round earlier when reading some of the rationals.
In 456 AB's last year, Pence batted .322 with an OPS of .899, driving in 69 runs, scoring 57 and adding 11 SB's. Solid across the board. Rotowire seems to be a little more liberal with their 2008 projections than Rotoworld, so I like their numbers better ;)
In either event, 100 RBI's, 90 runs, 15-20 SB's and an OPS around .890 should be forthcoming my way.
|
|
| | | 81 | dror
Leader
ID: 057721710
Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 02:06
|
5.11 Joe Mauer C MIN
Last year in AA, I picked Russell Martin in the 12th round, and it ended up being one of the biggest reasons why I got to play in this league. This year, I didn't recognize a single catcher who can prvoide positive value in the later rounds, so I decided to spend an early pick on the position.
Mauer comes off a tough year, he suffered an early injury in and even once he returned he just didn't look like his 2006 self. He is still very young, and I'm hoping that with a full offseason to rest and a new spot in the order (#2), he will come back and give me strong all around numbers from a position where strong numbers are very hard to find.
|
|
| | | 82 | blue hen
Leader
ID: 057721710
Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 02:06
|
5.12 Takashi Saito RP LAD
From the second I took Tejada, I knew I'd be gunning for a closer at this spot, and my targets were Joe Nathan and Billy Wagner. I figured Nathan would go earlier, but I'd probably have to live with Wagner as my first closer. I was fine with that because Wagner gets his K's, plays in a good park for a good team and I used to like him when he was on the Phillies. So when it came to my turn, I was about to go get Wagner, but I saw Takashi Saito was available. Rotowire seems to think quite highly of Saito and it's certainly founded - he has a great track record. I held [undrafted] last year in hopes Saito would get hurt but it never happened. If nothing else, this pick could cause 2008 to be Saito's first long-term injury. All the Dodger fans around here can thank me. Or else he stays healthy and effective, at which point, he's great value for a 5th round pick. And perhaps Wagner will still be around for the 6th round...
|
|
| | | 83 | Taxman
Leader
ID: 057721710
Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 02:07
|
5.13 Scott Kazmir SP TAM
Kazmir, like most choices after the first 3-4 rounds, has a lot to like and a few warts. What jumps out at you is his age: 24. Baring injury, most SP don’t peak until age 26-28, usually their 3rd/4th year in the Show. Entering his 4th ML season, Kazmir should continue to improve. His numbers for 2007 are tantalizing with a mid 3 ERA and 10.4 K/9 innings, and a wart = WHIP close to 1.40. However, 2007 was 2 seasons for Kazmir. His post all star numbers were elite:1.21 WHIP, 2.73 ERA and 11.4 K/9 winning 8 games. Ignoring the elbow strain this spring, I am looking for season long numbers comparable to his 2007 2nd half. 15 wins, 3.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 225 K.
|
|
| | | 84 | Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 02:09
|
5.14 ~ Aaron Harang, SP, CIN
After taking hitters the first four rounds, I should either take a SP or RP this round. I was hoping to get Saito, but he was nabbed by BlueHen just before me. I can’t decide between Wagner or Jenks as closer, so I’ve decided to wait, and take whichever one is available at pick 6.03. It turns out this was a bad choice. I’ve narrowed my selections to Harang, Smoltz, Oswalt, and King Felix. Smoltz is pretty good, but is getting up there in years. Oswalt doesn’t give me the Ks that I would be looking for. And as much as I like Felix, I think it’s a little too early to pick him. So Harang is the pick. For convenience, here is a copy/paste of my 2007 rationale for picking Harang (with just a couple 2008 edits). :-)
Harang's been a starter for three four years, and he's improved each year. He led was second in the NL in Ks last season, and has a k/9 of over 7.5 about 8.5. He’s got control too: his K/BB is above 4.0. If he is able to keep a few more of his fly balls from leaving the ballpark, he’ll have a real another breakout season. I expect continuing development from this 28 29 year old.
|
|
| | | 86 | Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 425869
Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 08:08
|
5.15 Chris Young, OF, Ari
At first, I wanted to grab my first closer here, but couldn't pull the trigger on Wagner. I guess I felt he was too much of an injury risk. Looking through who was out there (Saito was who I really wanted but he went several picks earlier), I liked Bobby Jenks as a backup option. Since, I have another pick after JeffG, I'll let him help me make my decision and go with a hitter here instead. I actually had Mike Lowell's name typed in, but started to have serious second thoughts. I started to worry about his lack of speed (and like, Wagner, his age), so looked at who was out there and Young looked like a decent option. He exploded on to the scene last year with his combination of speed and power - and low batting average. Hopefully, he'll continue to develop and improve on his OBP from last year while maintaining his power/speed combination.
|
|
| | | 87 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 08:08
|
5.16 Billy Wagner RP NYM
I had it in my pre-draft plans that I was going to take a RP with my 3rd or 4th round pick, but waiting paid off as I have a good one in Wags. He should save close to 40 on a Met team that should give him many opportunities, and he throws more than a strikeout per inning. At age 36, there is a little concern about what he has in the tank as illustrated by the way things fell apart in September for him, which lead to the Mets historic downfall, but then I noticed the two other closers taken this round are each 2 years older.
6.01 Jorge Posada C NYY
I was looking at the best couple of players on my board several other positions. John Smoltz, Gary Sheffied and Adrian Gonzalez were also considered. However, there is a large drop off at C between Jorge and still undrafted McCann and the rest of the field. Jorge's not coming near last year's .426 OBP or .543 SLG but should settle in the .370 and .470 range. He's also as good for R and RBI production compared to any other 5th or 6th rounder.
|
|
| | | 88 | RoBoGuRu
ID: 53123191
Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 13:49
|
6.02 Bobby Jenks, RP, ChW
Like I said with the 5.15 pick, I was going to take a closer here. JeffG did pick Wagner, so I grabbed Jenks. Last year, I remember Jenks fell a bit in my drafts as the thinking was his 2006 was a fluke, but last year he was even stronger with a sub 3.00 ERA and a sub 1.00 WHIP. I don't necessarily expect the same, but 35-40 saves aren't out of the question.
|
|
| | | 89 | RoBoGuRu
ID: 53123191
Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 13:50
|
for Tosh
6.03 Brian McCann, C, AtlSo I’m in a couple AL-only leagues, but no NL-only. So to be honest, NL catchers are pretty far off my radar. How did I decide to choose McCann? First off, I was completely distracted when my turn came up right in the middle of “game night” with the buddies. I was going to draft either Jenks or Wagner here, but both just got picked. I just drafted a SP, and Smoltz, who I heavily considered the previous pick is still available … but my pre-draft plan was to only get 1 SP in the first 7-8 rounds, so I decided to stick to it. I also know that there is going to likely be a closer run before my turn comes up again, but I decided to wait until the next turn to pick through the left-overs and add more hitting to the lineup. As I’ve discovered in previous rounds, most of the players at the top of my draft list are 1B and OF … which I don’t really need right now. Reaching for a SS or 3B doesn’t prudent, as I can get comparable players in a couple more rounds.
note – in the 26 picks between McCann and my next pick, only 5 closers were taken. No closer run.
But Brian McCann is available. He is the last of the top-tier catchers available, and there is a significant drop to the next grouping. I’m projecting a .365 OBP, .520 SLG, 90 RBIs, and 65 runs scored. I’ve never had a top (or second)-shelf catcher in a fantasy league. I always draft a schwag player towards the end. I wonder how this strategy will play out for me?
|
|
| | | 90 | RoBoGuRu
ID: 53123191
Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 13:50
|
for Taxman
6.04 Roy Oswalt
Always need SP who can win games, deliver K’s and carry a reasonable ERA and WHIP. The veteran Houston pitcher has delivered these qualities consistently since the turn of the century. Houston added offense over the off season and the added run support will help achieve more wins. Although his WHIP slipped last year, I project him to deliver 18 wins, 3.25 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 170 K’s. A very consistent SP.
|
|
| | | 91 | RoBoGuRu
ID: 53123191
Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 13:50
|
for blue hen
6.05 Rafael Soriano, RP, Atl
Well, Wagner didn't make it back to me, but there was still some great closing to be had. Soriano could be the best closer in baseball this year, and there aren't a lot of guys who can make that claim. Tons of strikeouts, plays for a pretty good team, and was just nasty last season. I'm buying.
|
|
| | | 92 | RoBoGuRu
ID: 53123191
Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 13:51
|
for dror
6.06 Felix Hernandez, SP, Sea
Last year in the 6th round, I picked a young pitcher from a semi-contending team, who has shown flashes of greatness before but couldn't really stay consistent for a full season. It worked out so well (Sabathia), that I decided to try and pull the same trick this year.
Hernandez is considered one of the most promising young starters in baseball for years, and I'm hoping that in his 4th season in the majors (and for the 1st time with a true ace keeping some pressure off him) he will find a way to pitch like everyone in baseball expect him to, and finally live up to his nickname and become a king. I know it's a gamble, but I feel it's the kind of gamble that if you want to win a league you just got to take.
|
|
| | | 93 | RoBoGuRu
ID: 53123191
Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 13:52
|
for Dave R
6.07 John Smoltz, SP, ATL
It was time to finally address pitching. I have never waited this long before, so time will tell how it pans out.
13 starters had been nabbed at this point and Smoltz was the highest on my board. As a matter of fact I had him ranked overall as the 10th best SP. I would have considered Oswalt or Harang, but they had just been chosen, and I think Smoltz was my guy in any event. Matsusaka was an option and may win more games, but I think Smoltz's other stats will be better.
True, he will be over 40 early in the season, but it didn't seem to affect him last year. Smoltz won " only " 14 games and I look for improvement there.
He struck out nearly a batter an inning, and posted an excellent ERA of 3.11 and a WHIP of 1.18. I expect a few more wins, but maybe some " slippage " in the other stats, but that would be fine.
|
|
| | | 95 | JL
ID: 572501014
Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 17:03
|
6.08 Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, SD
This was an odd pick. I had several needs at the time and 1B wasn't one of them. I needed a SP, a closer, 3B, and another OF. While looking at 3B options, it became apparent that there wasn't anything worth taking any time soon. I noticed that 1B was about to get very thin with AGon and Konerko to go off the board, and with that I'd be left with a weak 3B AND and weak CI. And part of me wanted to punish those that had waited so long to take a 1B and were going to be lucky enough to grab someone of AGon's caliber this late in the draft.
Pitching-wise, Halladay, Zambrano, Matsuzaka, Valverde, Street, and Cordero remained. I expected one of those to be available at my next pick, but I knew that AGon/Konerko would be gone by that time. Based on that, I closed my eyes and pulled the trigger.
Gonzalez and Konerko have very similar numbers, but Gonzalez has more potential, in my opinion.
|
|
| | | 96 | RoBoGuRu
ID: 53123191
Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 17:04
|
6.09 Paul Konerko, 1B, CWS
And this is the pick that I alluded to twice now. Except this isn't the pick I wanted it to be. I had targeted Gonzalez for a couple rounds and assumed that since everyone below me already had a 1B I could let him slide one more. I was wrong. When it came time to look at plan B, I still thought my most pressing hole was 1B, so I took Konerko instead. He was just below Gonzalez on my list so I don't feel too bad about it. I'm assuming that last year was a down year for him and he should rebound to his prior self(he was the #8 1B in 2006). I still like his home park and now he has Swisher in front of him to help his RBI totals.
Projection: 100R/110RBI/0SB/.370OBP/.530SLG seems reasonable...and I'm optimistic for slight better numbers all the way across.
I also considered switching gears and grabbing an OF(byrnes...who i got a round later) or a RP...but I couldn't convince myself that it was time for either.
|
|
| | | 97 | Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 18:15
|
6.10 Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, BOS
Dice-K was a guy I really wanted to get heading into the draft. The dilemma was where to draft him. In two of the other RIBC drafts he went in the fifth round, in the third he went exactly at 6.10, and in the fourth he went late in the seventh round. I thought about waiting ‘til the 7th, but decided against it. When looking at the rosters of those teams drafting between my picks, I don’t see many pitches. I figure as many as 6 could go. That sealed my decision.
Why do I want him? Last year he threw 200 innings, with 200K’s and 15 wins. Those are my minimum expectations for this season, but I think there’s a good chance he adjusts in his second season and really lowers his ERA and WHIP.
I almost took Halladay instead, but his K/9 dropped to 5.5 last season, so he more so than other top pitchers relies on his defense. Unfortunately the Blue Jays downgraded their SS D significantly when the signed a former World Series MVP, relegating a Gold Glove caliber SS to 5th infielder. That drop off in middle infield defense was enough to scare me away from Halladay.
I also looked at Kelly Johnson. With 4 of the 6 teams ahead of me set at 2B, I thought there was a better chance of him dropping to the 7th round. We’ll see if it works out.
|
|
| | | 98 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 18:41
|
6.11 Huston Street, RP, Oak
I had hoped hoped to land either Konerko or Adrian Gonzalez with this pick, but as usual, they were snatched up at the last moment. I really don’t see any non-outfielder hitters that interest me for a 6th round pick. And since I already have two outfielders, I don’t feel pressed to take a third now.
I’m sticking with my plan to defer until later for starting pitching, but that still leaves a second closer as a viable option. Frankly, I’m a little surprised that other teams have not pushed harder for closers, especially in light of the experience of recent seasons. That suits me just fine, since by deferring my starting pitching choices, I can really use closers with good ratios and strikeouts. The two leading candidates appear to be Street and Jose Valverde. Both have some history of injuries, but seem to be healthy for now. I think it’s essentially a coin flip, so I’ll go with the younger one. And if Valverde is still there in round 7, I might take him too! (He wasn't.)
|
|
| | | 99 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 18:44
|
for Bash Brothers
6.12 Matt Kemp, OF, LAD
With my infield set, I was looking for OFers in round 6 and 7. I really wanted Kemp. The problem was that I did not know when to select him. The other players I was looking for included Wells, Sheffield, and Matsui. After some tough struggle, I suddenly figured out the solution. It's very likely Kemp would be gone in round 8, and he might even be drafted between my round 6 & 7 picks. I could simply select Kemp in round 6 and chose whoever of the 3 other OFers left for me in round 7. So I pulled the trigger for him.
Speaking of Kemp, I admit he is a bit of a reach here (The jaws might be dropping everywhere). He is young and has yet played a full season in the majors. But as a Dodger fan, I've followed him through the past few years. He is a 5-tool player and plays like a young Bobby Abreu. His 2007 number provided a glimpse of a forthcoming promising career. I am not going to predict his number, but I am sure it will be fruitful at the end of the season. I remember picking up Fielder in 2007 at the same slot, and I can't stop myself imagining that Kemp would play all his way to be a first rounder in RIBC 2009.
|
|
| | | 100 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 18:44
|
for coldwater coyotes
6.13 Jim Thome, Util, ChW
OPS of .950 and 100 RBIs. With that I can live with giving up my Util slot.
|
|
| | | 101 | Uptown Bombers
Donor
ID: 035616416
Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 19:01
|
6.14 Jason Bay, OF, PIT
I was really confused with this pick and my round 7. Originally, I thought I would go with two pitchers, a closer and starter. But as round 6 moved along I began to talk myself out of that plan, and onto the idea of taking another hitter (preferably an OF) and then a pitcher in the next round. Obviously, I went with the latter plan and I’ll have some careful picking to do if I want to keep competitive in the pitching cats. I have three pitchers in mind, and I expect one to make it back to me.
After some research, I choose Bay. Last year he was a major disappointment and his team stinks. But I’ve convinced myself that his troubles last season were the result of his knee injuries and that he is healthy again this year. Many articles I read pointed to this year being a bounce back year for Bay. Here’s hoping they are right. In the case he gets traded during the season, it would likely to be to a contender, which should help him as he slots into a better line-up.
|
|
| | | 102 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 19:10
|
6.15 Alex Gordon, 1B/3B, KC
What a difference a year makes! Last year I drafted ARod in the first round and didn’t have to worry about 3B the rest of the draft. This year I took Pujols in the first round, but now the 3B options are looking a bit thin. I really should go with Lowell, the proven vet on a run scoring team, but this Alex Gordon kid is still intriguing to me. He didn’t perform up to par last year, but it seems like the hype surrounding him has considerably diminished which should allow him to go out and play baseball.
This pick could turn out to be a complete bust or it could turn out really well. Gordon failed to live up to projections last year even with more at bats than projected. This year’s projections are actually worse than last year’s projections when you consider the extra at bats and I’m not buying that. A .320 obp and .445 slg is not what I’m expecting for Gordon this year. I’m not expecting huge numbers by any means but I think he’s capable of the .340 obp and .470 slg that was projected for him last year and to get near 85 runs and rbis while throwing in 15 steals. I also think he could do more than that, but projecting youngsters too high usually only brings pain and misfortune.
|
|
| | | 103 | Building 7
ID: 48033121
Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 20:18
|
6.16 Edgar Renteria, SS, DET
It's looking thin at SS. Time to pick up someone average so I don't have to play someone below average. Cabrera was also looked at. I used to not like this guy because of what he did to the Indians.
But that's been so long ago, I pretty much forgot about it. Plus after Mesa blew the save it was pretty much inevitable that Florida was going to win. Now, I'm his biggest fan, plus I like the Tigers, anyways. Sorry, that's not much of an analysis.
|
|
| | |
|
|