Forum: base
Page 19485
Subject: RIBC 2008: Draft Rationales (Rounds 7-12)


  Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 18:46

Continuing for the next six rounds.

Rationales for round 1-6
 
1Building 7
      ID: 48033121
      Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 20:07
7.01 Jose Valverde, RP, HOU

I usually have drafted two closers by now. They seem to be going a little later this year. At least he'll get K's if he doesn't get any saves. This is also a TV pick as we get a lot of Astro's games here.



 
2StLCards
      Dude
      ID: 31010716
      Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 21:05
7.02 Carlos Zambrano, SP, Cubs
Ugh, I took a Cub and a pitcher that can drive you nuts on top of it. On the plus side he is durable, gets you wins, K’s, and a decent era and whip. On the other hand he is coming off yet another season where he threw way too many pitches, he can’t control his emotions which causes him to overthrow and lose effectiveness, and his whip at 1.33 could be a lot better for as good as he is, oh, and by the way, he is a cub which counts against him! I see it now, “come on Z, strike out the side, good, now let Pujols hit a solo HR”.

There were several other pitchers out there that were probably better picks than Z, but last year around this time I think I took a pitcher who seemed to go on the DL the second after I got him. At least with Z I’m relatively sure he will have to be dragged off the field holding his detached arm in his left hand before he doesn’t pitch during his rotation spot. Hopefully this is the year that Z wins the Cy Young, wait a minute, he’s still a Cub, nevermind!

On a side note I see that last year the team that had Pujols (1.01) and Zambrano (3.01) finished, well, nevermind, I’m sure that is not relevant to this year ;-)
 
3Uptown Bombers
      Donor
      ID: 035616416
      Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 21:37
7.03 Francisco Cordero, RP, CIN
After taking Bay, I had Valverde, Cordero, and Zambrano on my queue. It was really hard passing on Valverde in round six, as I like him better than Cordero. I suspected at least one of the two teams drafting after me was looking at a closer. But I made my bed when I took Bay and I like that pick, so all I can do is wonder whether or not he would have made it back to me. On my draft sheet, Cordero is the highest ranked closer remaining and actually the last before I marked a drop in value. I have no plans on punting saves, so if I figure to hang in the pack, I better just pick him now. It was awful tempting to take another SP and wait to see what closer scraps make it back to me round 8. Zambrano would have made my choice real interesting, but STLCards took that decision away. Cordero himself is rather unexciting. His saves and K/rate should be solid, but his WHIP from last year is deceiving and I expect that to end up closer to his career average.
 
4Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 21:56
for coldwater coyotes
7.04 Roy Halladay, SP, Tor
I was planning on taking Valverde but no such luck and no other closer appealed to me for this round. There were no decent 2Bs available, I had my eyes set on a 1B for a later round and there were more than plenty OFs to be had later in the draft...so I was backed into taking my first starting pitcher. Halladay with his injury risk is a good 7th round bet.
 
5Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 21:57
for Bash Brothers
7.05 Vernon Wells, OF, Tor
I was thinking about taking a 2nd closer here. But that idea just flashed through before I really meditated on it. The inconspicuous closer run in earlier rounds gave me a wrong impression. I thought I could take a serviceable closer in next round. But when my turn at 8.12 came up, there was only debris left from the big closer pie!

Quite a few of the hitters I drafted earlier are probably capable of generating more runs than RBIs. So I need a RBI machine here. The OFers I was targeting in Rd 6, Wells, Sheffield, and Matsui (not the one with anal fissure), all came back to me. When I was making my Q, I moved their names up and down without being able to decide who's on top. All 3 had injury problem. Sheffield and Matsui might have higher OBP than Wells and are in more potent lineups. I finally decided to put Wells on top based on his younger age, hitting in the 3 hole, and those few bags he might swipe for me. I was hoping a healthier shoulder could return him to his 2006 form as one of the most feared sluggers.

 
6Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 21:59
7.06 Pat Burrell, OF, Phi
I gave serious thought to adding a third closer here. But I decided that none of the likely candidates was reliable enough to impede the continued buildup of my hitting corps.

I may regret filling a 3rd OF slot before working on my CI or MI slots (other than Utley), but I think Burrell offers enough absolute value here to warrant the choice. For some reason, he always seems to gravitate to my fantasy teams. I suppose it’s because I tend to value good ratios (.400/.500) and tend not to penalize for the lack of speed. Burrell had two very different halves last year, with a pre-All star OPS of 786 and a post-ASB mark of 1010. In spite of the variation, his full year numbers were pretty much the same as the prior two years. So I think I know what I’m getting, and at age 31, he shouldn’t be in decline yet.
 
7Flying Polack
      Sustainer
      ID: 378582811
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 00:50
7.07 Kelly Johnson, 2B, ATL
Well he made it back to me, my calculated gamble paid off. I wasn't looking at anyone else with this pick, and I had agreed to trade it to dror if Johnson was drafted by someone else.

I'm excited to fill one of my MI positions with such a quality player. KJ was actually the 10th ranked MI in my projections, ranking higher than 2 of the 4 3rd Round MI's. I'll let you all guess which two. Last season, as a 25 year coming off a lost 2006, he went .375/.457/91/9. In a good lineup, with a full season of Mark Teixeira, I expect all of those numbers to increase.
 
8RoBoGuRu
      ID: 53123191
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 02:16
7.08 Eric Byrnes, OF, Ari

This pick fell into the best available category. I cant believe Byrnes fell out of the top 100 picks. He fits with my team makeup so far. Not huge in any category but he will contribute in all of them. Plus I really enjoy watching him play. It will be fun to finally get to root for him.

I hoping for something around the average of his last 2 seasons. 90/80/35 with an OPS around 800 would be nice.
 
9JL
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 11:03
7.09 Hideki Matsui OF NYY
At the turn, I was thinking "Wow, Halladay is still available along with Burrell, Byrnes, Wells, Zambrano, Valverde, and Cordero. With 8 picks before me and 7 names that I like, I've got a good chance of getting one of those guys." Then they all flew off the board before my turn. With Izzy, Corpas, Hoffman, Capps, and Soria still available, I thought that I could wait one more round to take a closer. I was wrong.

There weren't any starting pitchers that stood out over guys that wouldn't still be available a round later. And there weren't any middle infielders or catchers that deserved to be drafted at the time. So I decided to fill my OF #2. Candidates were Andruw Jones, Franceour, Delmon Young, Shane Victorino, and Hideki Matsui. I had read rumors that Jones reported to camp overweight and, since he just signed a huge contract, that scared me off. I just don't see the indicators that Delmon Young is ready to break out yet. And Victorino looked like he would probably last another round or two. Matsui, if healthy, will contribute in all five categories.

 
10Dave R
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 11:03
7.10 Matt Capps RP PIT
I got burned last year by choosing a closer in the 3rd round ( BJ Ryan ) and I vowed not to go that route again. Having gone 6 rounds and not addressed the saves category, it was either now or punt.

The big names are long gone, but that's OK. I had Capps as a late round pick last year and my patience was worthwhile as he eventually got the #1 gig in the pen.

Unfortunately pitching for a lousy team may limit his saves, but I'm figuring him for 32-36. In his limited role last year he compiled an ERA of 2.28 and WHIP of 1.01. I think he can average a K/inning, an ERA in the low 3's and WHIP of a little over 1.00

 
11dror
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 11:04
7.11 Howie Kendrick 2B LAA
I was really hoping Eric Byrnes would fall to me here, I even tried to trade up a few spots in order to get him but couldn't pull it off and he ended up going a couple of picks before my turn. With no other OFs or pitchers appealing to me, I decided to just fill the allways tricky MI spot so I woudln't have to worry about it later.

Kendrick had a tough year in 2007, he suffered a broken finger from a HBP early in the year and it continued to bother him all season long. But he is a terrific hitter who bats for both power and average, and after reading that Mike Scioscia plans to run him more this year ("between 20 and 30 steals"), I was sold. This is (another) make or break pick for me, but like I said before, you have to roll the dice a few times if you want a chance to end up on top.

 
12blue hen
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 11:04
7.12 Gary Sheffield OF DET
Sure, he's not really an outfielder anymore, but Gary Sheffield can still hit. It was quite enjoyable watching him take advantage of the strong Detroit lineup. Which is, of course, even stronger this year. Sheffield is not getting younger, but he's still a great hitter and should be a valuable contributor on this team.
 
13Taxman
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 11:05
7.13 Jeff Kent 2B LAD
Middle infielder scarcity continue to drive my draft choices. Kent, a streaky hitter in 2007, is a risk due to age, 40 (280 in dog years). However, he and Atlanta’s Chip Jones may still be top 5 hitters when they turn 50. Kent has kept his OBA above .470 the past 3 years and his SLG % in 2 of the past 3 years has above .500. Kent will likely bat 4th and produce OBA of .370, SLG of .485 and generate 85 R and RBI’s. The key to Kent’s success has been a keen batting eye (his walks/9) have increased with his age, and increased AB’s (494 in 2007).
 
14Tosh
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 11:05
7.14 Mike Lowell 3B BOS
This pick was a tough one. I look at one set of projections and it looks like Lowell is going to crash this year. Another set of projections has him putting up nice numbers. Not as nice as 2007, but still solid. But upcoming pickers both Yokel and JeffG need a 3B, so I nabbed the 3B at the top of my list. He’s an older guy, so I certainly expect him regress some from 2007, but as long as he doesn’t pull a Bret Boone-type implosion, I’ll be satisfied with my projected numbers of .360 OBP, .460 SLG, 93 RBIs, and 70 runs.
 
15Slackjawed Yokel
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 11:06
7.15 Orlando Cabrera SS CWS
Just realized 3 out of my last four picks were White Sox. Maybe I'll be watching their games on Comcast Sports Network this summer. With Cabrera, I get a SS who put up very good numbers last year driving in close to 80 runs and stealing 23 bases, and is moving to a hitter-friendly park. Hopefully this'll help his mediocre slugging percentage, and help him pad his decent runs/rbi numbers. After considering Mike Lowell two rounds ago, he nearly dropped all the way to me here, but was picked up two picks prior to mine. them's the breaks...
 
16JeffG
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 11:07
7.16 Trevor Hoffman RP SD

I took a second closer early because the non starters will give my staff a good foundation in the averages categories, oh, and getting another 30+ saves don't hurt either. Also looked at Joakim Soria. For Hoffman, I look for an ERA in the mid to high 2's and a WHIP around 1.16. Yes, a few red flags here. One is he's 40, and the other is those fresh in everyone's mind two blown saves to take the Pads out of the 2007 post season. Not concerned, Hoffman is ageless. I looked at his end of last season otherwise and up until the Padres collapse, he had saved 11 out of 12 chances during the pennant stretch. Not bad for an old guy.


8.01 Josh Hamilton OF Tex

Looking at the top hitters under consideration, no one stood apart from everyone else like Hamilton. He will help my team averages in both slugging and on base, (.380/500), and he'll provide at a minimum in the 80s for both runs scored and driven, maybe 10 steals. Even given his past history and last season's DL visits, I think the rewards outweigh the risks. Here is a player with undisputed potential and could be a 2008 'break out' player. Hamilton's route to the majors is well enough chronicled, it is a made-for-tv movie waiting to happen. Now time for the happy ending.
 
17Slackjawed Yokel
      Leader
      ID: 057721710
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 11:47
8.02 Rich Hill SP CHC
In retrospect, I should have taken a closer here. I thought about getting Lidge, but thought with his injury concerns he might make it back to me. Of course, the second-tier closer run started right after my pick, and I'll end up settling for someone with much larger question marks than Lidge. That said, with Hill I get a pitcher who has a chance at a break-out year. Last year he had 183 K's and a WHIP of 1.2. If he can continue keeping runners off the bases, I'd think his 3.9 ERA should decline.
 
18Tosh
      Leader
      ID: 057721710
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 11:48
8-03 ~ Jason Isringhausen

If I don’t get a closer now, I might as well just plan on tanking the category. There are lots of closer options right now, all with various positives and negatives. Hoffman was my #1 option, but just got taken. So it’s between Izzy, Soria, Corpas, C Cordero and Lidge (who I would have taken if he’d thrown yet this Spring). I threw all the names into a hat, cast a voodoo spell … and the smoke told me that Izzy’s the man, with 33 saves, 2.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and leaving me looking for Ks.

With Magglio Ordonez, Mike Lowell, and Isringhausen all on my roster so far, I might want to invest in a hottub and team masseuse. Or buy a Fountain of Youth.
 
19Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 19:53
for Taxman
8.04 Manny Corpas, RP, Col
Consistent early run on RP Saves category forced drafting a closer with this pick. Copas is not a K generator, nor does he have a high BB/9, but he looks more attractive both performance and security wise than other remaining options. His ratio of K/BB is above 3.0 which is considered elite by some sabermaticians. With a full year of save opportunities behind his predecessor closer, Brian Fuentes, in the set-up role, Copas will net 40 saves, 65 K, an ERA of 2.50 and a WHIP of .190. Another words, Copas should be the closer for Colorado for the foreseeable future, and 2008 will showcase his closer talent.
 
20Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 19:54
for blue hen
8.05 Brad Lidge, RP, PHI

Holy pitchers batman! We've been saying for a few rounds that the pitchers were coming. When Corpas and Isringhausen went, I knew the flood was coming. So I figured I better get my next closer. Brad Lidge, at his best, is as good as anyone, and that's what I'm counting on.
 
21Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 19:54
for dror
8.06 Tim Lincecum, SP, SF
With the closers bonanza in full force I though this can be a good time to go other way and take my second starter here. Once again, I decided to go with big time potential over the more solid veteran. I was torn between Lincecum and Vazquez, finally choosing to go with the promising younster.

Lincecum is an amazing pitcher. His stuff is truly electrifying, very fun to watch. He also plays home games in one of the most pitcher friendly parks the league has to offer, witch can't be bad. The big question mark is durability, but I think that after throwing nearly 180 innings between the Giants and the minors last year he shouldn't have any sort of IP limit. Wins are a crapshot anyway, I'm just hoping he is not gonna be this year's tragedy style Matt Cain.

 
22Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 19:55
for Dave R
8.07 Joakim Soria RP KC

See rationale 7.10 ;)

Just kidding. I had no intention of grabbing a 2nd closer here. None what so ever. But quickly, Isringhausen, Corpas, and Lidge flew off the board in 3 of the 4 previous picks, so I had to make a change in plans. One closer just doesn't seem to cut it. And I didn't want to be faced with trying to fill the slot later. Time will tell how it pans out.

Soria had similar numbers last season as Capps. He possesses and low 90's fastball, and excellent curve and changeup. The problem, as with Capps, is playing for a lousy team.

As far as my expectations, see rational 7.10 ( maybe I wasn't kidding )
 
23Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 19:55
for JL
8.08 Fausto Carmona, SP, Cle
With the remaining respectable closers all off the board, I just decided to wait on saves. I seemed to be in good shape with the offense, so I needed to take a SP. To this point in the draft I had been pretty conservative with my picks, going with proven and consistent over potential. But if you want to win a league like this, you're going to have to take some risks. I fully expect Fausto to break down during this season due to last year's workload, but if he can repeat last season, this will be steal.
 
24Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 19:55
for RoBoGuRu
8.09 Dan Uggla, 2B, Fla
The more this pick approached, the more excited I got about it. As I searched for the best direction for my draft to take, the gaudy power numbers that I could grab from what is, for most teams, a virtually wasted position, was too good to pass up. He biggest deficit, BA, won't hurt me in this format. I expect him to equal or outproduce my second round 2B (Phillips) in every category but SB. This pick also allowed me to feel a little better about not having a SS at this point in the draft. I had my eye on a few but didn't feel like any could offer the stats I plan to get from Uggla.

(100/90/5/.335/.480 seems reasonable)

I considered grabbing a RP here but felt that there were enough decent options still available that I could wait one more round, not recognizing I was in the middle of a closer run.

 
25Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 19:56
for Flying Polack
8.10 Chad Cordero, RP, Was
Last year I didn’t draft a closer because I felt they were overvalued. I still feel that way, especially about the top closers going in the 3rd or 4th round, but I decided I would grab at least one mid-tier guy during the draft. I’m not looking to win the category; just a middle of the pack finish is fine with me.

Cordero was the 19th closer chosen. I had him ranked 14th, and as the last one I really wanted. He’s 26, doesn’t have to worry about losing his job, and saved 115 games in the last 3 years. Sure his WHIP last season was a bit higher than you’d like, but I can’t be too picky in the 8th round.

I also considered Javier Vazquez with this pick. I had Vazquez ranked quite a bit higher. I just didn’t want to play Russian roulette with Gagne, Borowski, or Todd Jones, my options if I didn’t draft Cordero. Should I have risked it? I don’t know, probably not. I got lucky with Kelly Johnson in the 7th round and didn’t want to play that game again.

 
26Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 19:57
8.11 Javier Vazquez, SP, ChW
I guess I should get started on my starting pitchers.

Vazquez had a very nice 2007, winning 15 games on a lousy team, striking out 213 batters, with ratios of 3.74 and 1.14. At age 31, he should have plenty of gas in the tank. Of some concern is that last year’s results were his best since 2003. But he has been pretty durable, and will most likely be the #2 starter for the White Sox.

I considered a few other starters, but opted for Vazquez based on durability and strikeout ratio. Had Tim Lincecum survived to this pick, I might have taken him for the upside potential. But I’m happy with Vazquez – for now, at least.
 
27Uptown @work
      ID: 725417
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 20:45
for Bash Brothers
8.12 Chad Billingsley, SP. LAD
Being the last to pick up a SP, I was pretty aware of what's left for me. But in my opinion, there are some decent SPs in the middle pack. Billingsley has been in the majors since 2006, although he had never been a starter at the beginning of the season. In 140+ innings of work last year, he notched 12 W and nearly a K per inning, while posted 3.31 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. This might not be a fancy pick, and you can argue there are some better SPs out there. But this is a young athlete with promising upside potential. More importantly, he plays for my beloved Dodgers in the very pitcher-friendly stadium.
 
28Uptown @work
      ID: 725417
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 20:46
for coldwater coyotes
8.13 Jermain Dye, OF CWS
Another old man to join Chipper, Rivera, Thome on my team. Nothing wrong with the old guys except the injury risk. I am expecting a somewhat better year for Dye than his dismal 2007
 
29Uptown @work
      ID: 725417
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 20:47
for Uptown Bombers
8.14 Brett Myers, SP, PHI
My plan here for this pick and the next was to take two SPs. I was really hoping to take two from Billingsley, Myers and Vazquez. That plan got nixed, so I start my two-some with Myers. I had Myers last year as my SP #2 until he became my closer #3. That didn’t end up all that bad for me last year, though I am not hoping nor expecting that to happen again. I am glad that even after the Lidge injury Myers was named the opening day starter over Hamels. This seems like a commitment to Myers staying in the rotation. As a SP, Myers has put up good numbers. I am hoping for 15 W, 190K, 3.85 ERA, and 1.28 WHIP over 200 IP. Those numbers seem very attainable to me. I now have two Phillies in my rotation. This will make watching their series with the Mets very interesting. If the Mets light them up, I’ll be happy. If they shut down the Mets, at least I can console myself with their stats.
 
30StLCards
      Dude
      ID: 31010716
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 21:01
8.15 BJ Ryan, RP, TOR
I had a whole rationale written up, but the problem with writing them up early is that they change so much. I did select one of the players later so maybe I can use part of that in my next pick writeup. Here is the part relevant to this pick.

I looked at closers earlier and saw some teams stock piling and just now saw Chad Cordero get picked at 8.10. I really hadn’t planned on taking a reliever here, but there are only a couple left that I wouldn’t mind having. The one with the most upside seems to be a guy coming off of Tommy John surgery and the other is pitching for a bad team, but at a place where they seem to get plenty of saves (Gregg who was picked at 8.16). They seem to have comparable numbers for projections, but one is a former top 5 closer, so he could be a real steal here. I am reading that he is pitching and likely to be with the team to start the season, but even if he doesn't he should have great numbers barring some kind of major setback. Then again saves is only 1 category out of 10, so a pick this high really isn’t warranted, but I would rather finish in the top 2/3 of saves so that will take two solid closers.
 
31Building 7
      ID: 48033121
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 21:34
8.16 Kevin Gregg, RP, FLA

I was hoping to get something better than this, but I'll take it. Maybe 30 saves. Maybe not. The Marlins generally play low-scoring games, so there's a better chance for a save, because of a lower standard deviation or something. His stats weren't too bad from last year; especially compared to some of the alternatives. He averaged a K per inning. I also noticed he used to pitch middle relief for the Angels. Not very well either. I'm not sure why he got better last year, but I hope he continues. Almost rolled the dice on Marmol.

9.01 James Loney, 1B, LAD

I'm not usually big on young players. But the draft rolled around to me and with my prior picks and the players available, he looked like the best choice. I think some people expect young players to improve a lot and that expected improvement is priced-in to their draft spot. I usually want to see more evidence that they can do well..i.e. older players. But, a lot of times it works out going with the young guy. Like this time I hope. I also looked at Blalock, but he had too many bizarre problems. James was one of the best sluggers left, plus I needed a first baseman.
 
32StLCards
      Dude
      ID: 31010716
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 22:27
9.02 Andruw Jones, OF, LAD

I’m looking over my options here and see that I don’t have any OF’s yet. I also seem to be short on RBIs and Slugging, among other things. Two names pop out in the outfield, no pun intended, Andruw Jones and Francouer. I had Francouer last year and he was very serviceable. Both have over 100 RBI projections and good slugging numbers, so one of them fits the bill nicely if around at my next pick. I had thought about going several different directions but seeing Dye go off the board didn’t sit well with me as I had him right near the top of my list. I knew that whoever I took here the rest of my queue would be gone by the time it came back to me, so I really had to choose between some players that might be better, but I really couldn’t afford to miss out on a potential big bopper from the OF. Sure he’s fat and in a pitchers park now, but maybe the extra weight will make his ball carry just a bit farther to clear the fences, and what I really want from him is rbis anyway.
 
33Uptown Bombers
      Donor
      ID: 035616416
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 22:56
9.03 James Shields, SP, TB
My decision to land another starter here came with the realization that I was not going to get a second solid closer. If I take another closer at all, he will come with big question marks and poor ratios, so I felt needed to load up on as many innings as possible with good ratios to try and compensate. Hence, first Myers and now Shields. As noted in my last rational, Shields was not my original choice, but I am still very happy to land him. He only has a one year track record, but demonstrated such excellent control last year that I see no reason to expect a drop-off. He is young, doesn’t walk batters, has a great K rate and with the right amount of luck could see his win total jump up closer to 15.
 
34Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 23:44
for coldwater coyotes
9.04 Ben Sheets, SP, Col
A solid pick for my second SP. I am looking at 13 wins with a 3.50 ERA.
 
35Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 23:44
for Bash Brothers
9.05 Matt Cain, SP, SF
Being left behind in the closer race, it became obligatory to draft another middle-pack SP here. Cain is the second consecutive 23-year-old SP fell onto my team. Like Billingsley, Cain is durable, tough to hit, and racks up strikeouts. With 2 years in the majors, he is more experienced and could take another step forward. Unfortunately he plays for the lousy Giants, which is never a good thing for the "W" category.

Just before I finished this, I saw Dave R's rationale on his pick 9.10. His desire for Cain made me feel better. Maybe I should worry more about Giants' offense than Cain's capability.

 
36Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 23:45
9.06 Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, Bos
Like Pat Burrell, Youkilis is a player that keeps finding his way onto my rosters – and his hitting profile is similar to Burrell’s, just missing a little power.. I don’t have anyone at 1B or 3B yet, so his dual eligibility gives me some extra flexibility as the draft progresses. In each of the last two years, he’s started off very strong, but faded somewhat in the second half. That’s a little worrisome, but if he can keep putting up overall numbers like the past two seasons, he’s good value for a ninth rounder. He turns 28 on Saturday, so should be in his prime.

I’m looking for 90-80-.390-.450. And a steal or two when the catcher falls asleep.
 
37RoBoGuRu
      ID: 53123191
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 01:16
for Flying Polack
9.07 Kosuke Fukudome, OF, Chc
Wow, talk about a struggle. I had no idea where to go with this pick. I spent a good 45 minutes debating this one. First I looked at Gallardo, then Fukudome, then Victorino, Ellsbury, Jones. I finally decided on Fukudome. BP is very high on him for this season, projecting .401/.504/94/68/10. If he hits those numbers he’s probably a 4th or 5th round pick next season. In the 9th round, without having a strong feeling in another direction, I decided to gamble. The factoid that finally sealed the decision for me, Lou Pinella was Ichiro’s manager in Seattle when he made the transition.
 
38RoBoGuRu
      ID: 53123191
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 01:31
9.08 Jeff Francoeur, OF, ATL

Since I "failed" to get an elite 1B or 3B that would typically provide a base for a teams power numbers, I felt I should look for a little power production from my OF3. I didn't see many OF that deserved to be drafted at this point that I could feel comfortable hoping for 100+ RBI with solid numbers elsewhere.

I was watching RP, but the ones I was targeting went before my pick. So I re-aimed at one I was almost certain would come back to me in the next round.
 
39JL
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 12:34
9.09 Shane Victorino OF PHI
It's the 9th round and I have zero closers...yet I still can't bring myself to draft a guy like Borowski, Jones, or Gagne...especially given that Victorino, one of the few remaining multi-dimensional base stealers, is still available and soon to go off the board. I was torn, though. I also considered taking the high risk/high reward Glaus.
 
40Dave R
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 12:34
9.10 Yovani Gallardo SP Mil

With only one starting pitcher in fold, I had my eye on Matt Cain for this pick. Of course he was taken a few pick earlier. But of the remaining options,I felt Gallardo fit in nicely as my 2nd starter. I was looking for upside and feel he has a ton.

In his rookie season , Yovani posted a 9-5 record, K'd 101 in 110 innings and had an ERA of 3.67 and WHIP of 1.27

Might be a bit risky to draft a 22 year old, but I think it's worth the gamble
 
41dror
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 12:35
9.11 Yunel Escobar SS ATL
Escobar was as low as I was willing to get in SS. The way I see it, things turn real ugly in that position after him so I was willing to make a small reach here. Now I only need to find a CI and I'm finally done with infielders for good.

Escobar will not hurt me in the averages (at least not as much as the other SS still available), and he will open the season as the every day leadoff hitter for a strong offensive team. If he can just hold on to that spot for the entire season the numbers will be just fine.

 
42blue hen
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 12:35
9.12 Jeremy Hermida, OF, FLA

After 8 picks, I had four pitchers. At that point, it really struck me that I should work on my hitting. Last year, I reached for Hermida in the 12th round and it turned out to be a great pick. I'm happy to have Hermida with this pick - he's on the way up as opposed to some other players on my team.


for Taxman
9.13 Hank Blalock, 3B, Tex
Blaylock had a rib removed at the end of the 2007 season, as his numbers had declined drastically from 2004. The Texas brain trust (same people that traded Teixeira) believe that Blaylock will return to his 2004 type numbers. Blaylock claims to be free of the motion restriction/discomfort caused by the removed rib. Batting in the 5 hole in a souped up Texas line up, Blaylock will (better) score 75 runs, drive in another 90, generate no steals, a .360 OBA and a .485 SLG%

 
43Tosh
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 12:36
9.14 John Maine SP NYM
I can go ahead and draft one of the remaining closers available, or add a second SP to the roster … and decide to go the SP route. Candidates include Maine, Burnett, Pedro, Liriano and [undrafted]. I expect that Maine will end up pitching the most innings this summer, so I decide to take him. A few too many walks, but nice K/9, and a good opportunity for wins pitching for the NYM.
 
44Slackjawed Yokel
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 12:36
9.15 Orlando Hudson 2B ARI
I extended my streak of picking up middle infielders with the first name of Orlando in consecutive odd rounds to an unofficial record of two. The danger with later middle infielder picks is that they tend to really hurt your percentages, but that shouldn't be the case for Hudson. He's been above .800 OPS the last couple years while showing improvement.
 
45JeffG
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 12:40
9.16 A.J. Burnett SP Tor

I was going to go after a 3B or MI here, but there was no one player who stood out to me, and there seem to be enough of the same still out there that it won't hurt the efforts to wait. Was not necessarily targeting a starter, but I feel he is the best one left on the board, especially after my SP depth chart started getting picked away (Cain, Sheets, Gallardo). He's a strikeout pitcher who has seen double digit wins in each of the last three years, even with missing the equivalent of 7-10 starts the last two seasons. AJ's ERA is pretty consistently in the 3's year after year. No high expectations here, just hoping for more of the same and a hope for good health.


10.01 Jacoby Ellsbury OF Bos

One of the things about bypassing Carl Crawford TWICE in the first two rounds of the draft means like almost everyone else in this league, I have to find steals in other places to at least stay in the middle of the pack in that category. Last year I had a bunch of different players who all contributed about 20 steals each, but this year has played out differently. Except for Soriano, my offensive selections to date have all been no-steal 4 toolers who are on the high side in SLG in RBI for their position, which at least means I can afford to take a speed guy like Ellsbury now who is below average for mid round OF in those other two areas. I have seen SB projections in the 30s, and that seems reasonable, assuming he as expected gets more playing time at CF then his possible platoon-mate. If he is at the top the lineup and gets on base, there are a lot of guys who can get him home.
 
46Slackjawed Yokel
      Leader
      ID: 057721710
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 17:54
10.02 Joe Borowski RP CLE
Well, after missing out on the closer run of the last round, I thought I'd grab one of the last guys with somewhat of a lock on the closer job. Borowski had somewhat of an odd season last year with 45 saves to go along with an ERA over 5. I can't say I'd be happy with that this time around, but I think if he keeps the job all year it'll be with a lower ERA. I thought about Troy Glaus here or another SP, but it was too late for me to punt saves after taking Jenks in the 6th.
 
47Tosh
      Leader
      ID: 057721710
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 17:55
10.03 ~ Delmon Young, OF, MIN

I’m not real happy with this pick. I was rushed trying to get out the door for work, and should have anticipated that Jhonny Peralta (who I really wanted) wasn’t going to last until my next pick at 11.14. Instead of Peralta, or likely my last chance at a second closer … I go with the young, dynamic Delmon Young. His OBP is too low, but he has speed and power and lots of HOF-potential upside. There are available players that will probably put up better numbers that Delmon, but none that will make me want to pull out my old Twins “Homer Hanky”. Go Delmon!
 
48Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 18:06
for Taxman
10.04 Pedro Martinez, SP, NYM
Dreaming of years gone by, the second half of yesteryear's Randro seemed like a great opportunity. Pedro has not suffered much wear and tear the past couple years and should be able to deliver double digit wins and mid-triple digit K’s. At 36, he is not ancient (reference Smoltz and Maddux) and he projects in 2008 to win 14 games, get 155 K’s in 165 innings, with a 3.50 ERA and a 2.20 ERA.
 
49Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 18:07
for blue hen
10.05 Troy Glaus, 3B, STL

Third base is a very deep position these days. There are good 3Bs at all tiers, from A-Rod, Wright and Cabrera on down. When I couldn't get one of those three, I decided to wait a while, passing on guys like Aramis, Chipper, and Zimmerman. Many rounds later, I landed Glaus. When healthy, Glaus measures up with those other guys. A healthy season means a real coup here.

There another interesting piece here. Glaus has played quite a few games at shortstop in his career. And now his manager is Tony LaRussa, the one guy creative enough to play his third baseman at short, giving me a boost at middle infield. Wouldn't that be sweet?
 
50Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 18:07
for dror
10.06 Eric Gagne RP MIL
I needed a second closer badly, and even though Gagne wasn't exactly who I had in mind before the draft I think he will be just fine. Before the disaster that was his stint in the Boston pressure cooker last year, he was actually pretty good in Texas. I think that coming back to the NL will be very good for him, and the Brewers are a strong enough team to provide him with plenty of save chances.
 
51Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 18:08
for Dave R
10.07 Dustin Pedroia 2B Bos

I was getting a bit concern as to not having chosen a second basemen by now. I had a group of 4 that I felt were all on about a level playing field. Anyone would do, and I almost decided to wait til next round, figuring at least on of the 4 would be still available. But I also knew that eventually I would not only need someone to play second, but another MI as well.

The choices at other positions I was looking at didn't give me the sense that they were more important than filling a vacant slot. So I narrowed my choice to Pedroia.

Dustin probably never will be in the upper tier of second basemen. He won't steal bases, hit a bunch of HR's or drive in a lot of runs.

But he is a good contact hitter and should easily hit over .300 and in the potent Red sox lineup score over 100 runs.

He's just the kind of guy won't WOW you with lofty stats, but who doesn't do anything to hurt you. Just the kind of guy I was looking for.
 
52Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 18:08
for JL
10.08 Todd Jones RP DET
At one time or another, most of us have had to take our beloved old dog to the vet to be euthanized. You know that you're going to feel terrible afterwards and you want to put it off as long as possible, but you know that it has to be done eventually. That's what it felt like to take my first closer in the 10th round with Todd Jones. Okay, apparently appropriate analogies are not my strong suit, but I needed to bite the bullet and take a closer, despite knowing beforehand that I would not be happy with the pick. What's done is done, though, and it needed to be done. I can accept the 4.50 ERA if he can get me 35 saves.
 
53Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 18:09
for RoBoGuRu
10.09 J.J. Hardy SS MIL
I had a couple players in mind here but only Hardy seemed like a player that wouldn't be available the next round (or at least someone of equal value). I considered filling my CI (Garko ended up lasting 2 more rounds)or SP3(Liriano was taken a few picks later) slots here but felt that the pools at both places were deeper than the remaining SS. I feel quite comfortable with JJ as my 'weakest' of 3 MI. Bonus if he can carry a hot start like he had last year deeper into the season this year.
 
54Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 18:09
for Flying Polack
10.10 Geovany Soto C CHC
I tabbed Soto as my catcher before the draft started; I just had to figure out what round made the most sense. The other RIBC drafts didn’t give me much insight. In AAA PCL he went 8.07, in AAA IL he went 15.12. Talk about a disparity. Since all the options discussed in pick 9.07 were gone, I just decided to get him in the 10th. In a 16 team league, if you really want a guy, sometimes you have to take him a round early.
 
55Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 18:10
10.11 Placido Polanco, 2B, Det
I was hoping John Maine would make it to this pick, but it wasn’t even close. Dustin Pedroia was also on my short list. And Pedro Martinez would have been very tempting if he was still available.

Not to be.

I still need 2 more middle infielders and two more corner infielders. I think the supply of cornermen is deeper – although I may not feel that way when I get around to taking one.

Last year Polanco produced ratios of .388/.458 while scoring 105 and deriving in 67. If he would reproduce those stats this year, this pick is a steal. None of the projections I’ve seen suggest that he can repeat, but at age 32 in a good lineup, I can always hope! And as a MI, he doesn’t need that level of success to be valuable.
 
56Bash Brothers
      ID: 23755618
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 19:27
10.12 Troy Percival RP
To me, this is like a garbage pick. I just didn't want to be left behind in the Save column. As middle-pack closer long gone before my eight round pick, my 4th round pick Nathan looked like a waste. However, to stay close to the race, I still got to draft a second closer. Well, not actually a real closer by our standard definition, but one who just happens to be lucky enough to pitch in the 9th inning. Coming out from retirement in 2007, Percival displayed diminished but still respectable pitching touch. The Rays signed him to be their 2008 closer (at least they said so). He won't pitch often (might not exceed 50 innings), but I am hoping to squeeze out 20 saves from his old body.
 
57Uptown Bombers
      Donor
      ID: 035616416
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 05:19
for coldwater coyotes
10.13 Brian Wilson, RP, SF
I hate this pick. I had to have a second closer but you would think that I could find somebody better than Wilson. He is a below average pitcher on a very bad team. It looks like I will have to strike it lucky by picking up a new closer on the waiver wire.
 
58Uptown Bombers
      Donor
      ID: 035616416
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 05:20
10.14 Jhonny Peralta, SS, CLE
I need two more MI. I was hoping, but not expecting, for either Polanco or Pedroia to fall to me here. When they came off the board, I took my next highest rated MI. This is probably too early for him, but I don’t have him ranked that far below the two 2B. Position need led me to just take him now and not worry about it. He is in a good lineup so his chances to produce will be there. He raised his BA quite nicely last year. I’m hoping that means he can continue to improve and maybe bring his OBP closer to what it was a few years ago.
 
59StLCards
      Dude
      ID: 31010716
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 09:54
10.15 Jason Giambi, 1B/DH, NYY
Giambi seems to be getting the nod to play 1B this year. Hopefully that allows hims to get 400+ ABs this year, and if he does then he should be a real value pick at 10.15. Always has a great obp and should knock in a bunch of runs for his ABs in the middle of that potent lineup. I really wanted to anchor my lineup with another power bat and I feel I have done just that. Last year Giambi was taken much higher and didn't produce at that level, but as a 10th round pick this year he should have no trouble attaining what is expected, barring injury of course.
 
60Building 7
      ID: 48033121
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 10:53
10.16, Carlos Marmol, RP, CUBS

I had this guy on my team last year. He was awesome. If he can pitch like last year, and if he can be the closer.....he would be one of the best closers. That's a couple big if's though. Here is his batting average against in 28 day games - .102. In all games it was .169. I could go on. Predictions: 80 innings, 47 hits, 2 HR's, 111 K's, 0.99 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 2 Wins, 44 saves. Since I'm making it up, I'm going to make up something good . I was hoping Soto would make it to me. Also considered Wiggington, Sherrill, and Lilly. Out of the 31 picks since my last selection, there were only about 3 picks that I would not have chosen here, if they were still available. I'm not sure what to make of that, except I'm starting to think like everyone else. The top MR's usually start getting picked around round 12 maybe. Well, Carlos is one of the best, and he has a chance to get some saves, too. Also, with his +1 K/inning, I don't have to draft a SP that gets a lot of K's.

11.01, Ken Griffey, Jr.,OF, CIN

One of the biggest sluggers left. If he can play most the year, this should work out. He can still hit. I wanted to get an outfielder here. The speedy ones are dropping, but I don't really need SB's. If I had not taken Ichiro early, I would have jumped on one of these speed bargains....Byrnes, Victorino, etc. I'm not sure why no one is interested in big-time SB guys. It's all about the % categories, I guess. Maybe the RBI category also. The back of Griffey's right earlobe has not been injured yet, so he may miss some time with that or some other ailment.
 
61StLCards
      Dude
      ID: 31010716
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 10:58
11.02 Francisco Liriano, SP, MIN
I really didn’t know what I was going to do with this pick. Picking 2nd it is a long time before my next pick comes back around so I really have to project what is going to happen over the next two rounds. I was torn between taking a hitter or a pitcher. I only had 1 OF at this point so taking some more would seem to be the right move. Several were there that would be nice picks, but looking over the various teams it seemed to me that a lot of guys would be happy with their current OF situation and at most 5 or 6 OFers would go over the next two rounds, so I felt that pitching was more likely to thin out before it came back to me.

Had Marmol still been available I might have taken him, but since he isn't yet the closer I'm not sure I would have pulled the trigger anyway. Liriano obviously was a rising star before he blew out his arm so his name probably influenced my pick more than it should have. Right after I picked him I went and read some things that weren’t as strong as I would have liked to have read. Namely he seems afraid to let go on his awesome slider and he says he no longer is a hard thrower with his new delivery hitting 89-90 in spring training. My hope is that he improves throughout the season. I think he’ll be ok once he gets his confidence back and he should still have a good whip and era and has a good bullpen behind him to get him out of any jams he might get into. At least he has had success before and I think that will go along a way towards this year.

 
62StLCards
      Dude
      ID: 31010716
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 11:01
for Uptown Bombers
11.03 Brandon Lyon, RP, ARI
This guy has just as good a shot to produce numbers as the 7 closers that were drafted before him, which goes all the way back to the end of round 8. So in my mind, 35 picks later it was worth the risk. Once I passed on taking two closers earlier, I figured I would just wait until the last possible moment and pick from the scraps. This, I think, is that moment. Looking down the draft board, there are some teams with only one closer. Don’t know for sure, but I figure at least a few of them are looking for another. This guy has been named the starter, but obviously he has some competition in the bullpen. Maybe I get lucky and he holds the job all year. Arizona is a good team, so he stands to get enough opportunities. Not likely, but worth the gamble. Such is the nature of the bottom of the barrel closer ranks.
 
63Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 15:49
for coldwater coyotes
11.04 Adam LaRoche 1B PIT
I had always planned on taking LaRoche as my 1B so it was only a question of how long could I wait. I could possibly have waited until the 12th or 13th rounds but it wasn't worth the risk. I am expecting 95 RBIs and a .850 OPS.
 
64Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 15:51
for Bash Brothers
11.05 Tim Hudson SP ATL
Due to insecurity from my closer position, I intended to draft a late-inning reliever with potential to become a closer. But it's too early to pick one here. I wanted to trade down, but nobody was interested. So I picked a SP and hoped for the best. Fortunately the guy I targeted (Broxton) went right back to me at 12.12.

Speaking of Hudson, he is not the strikeout pitcher he once was anymore. But he does pitch efficiently. A repeat of last year's result is not out of reach, and I can live with that. I was also considering Penny, Wang (both for the W) and Snell (for the K). But the one I liked most was Weaver. (You can refer to Dave R's rationale to see why). I was just foolish enough to think he would make his way back to me in round 12/13. Lesson learned.

 
65Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 15:56
11.06 Khalil Greene, SS, SD
I really wrestled long and hard with this pick.

Thus far, my hitters have a very solid OBP, so I can afford to absorb a low one. The ranks at SS are thin and getting thinner, but Greene offers good runs, RBIs, and power. The catch is his on-base average, which was sub-.300 last year. That really sucks. But it’s not THAT much worse that the other available shortstops.

My ranking approach really seems to favor guys with good OBP (see Burrell & Youkilis) and to penalize guys like Greene. And yet, I still have him as the highest ranked available SS. Still, I’m not in love with this choice. Call it a pick based on fit and need. I think I can handle his low OBP, and the rest of his profile fits my needs – most of all, his position. And now he’ll probably proceed to give me fits all year.
 
66Flying Polack
      Sustainer
      ID: 378582811
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 17:08
11.07 Lastings Milledge, OF, WAS
Lastings has been at the top of my rankings for a while. Let’s just say he’s ranked between Granderson and Pence, who went long ago. I think that forecast is overly optimistic, but at some point you have to say what the heck. The one thing he should bring, which I definitely need, is speed. Even if his OPS isn’t as high as projected, hopefully he’ll swipe 20+ bags.

Anyway, Lastings is having a great camp. He’s hitting .389, with 6 extra base hits and 5 SB’s in 36 AB’s. Maybe that draft sheet is onto something.
 
67JL
      ID: 92551316
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 18:57
for Robo
11.08 Adam Wainwright

I like Adam in my SP3 spot. He pitched well in the second half, improving in just about every stat category. His Ks were up, BBs were down, nice ERA, and low HR rate. I'm hoping this season he embraces the role as staff ace and develops into the first round pick that he is.

Something in the neighborhood of 15W, 150K, 3.60ERA, and 1.30 WHIP seems reasonable and would make this a pretty good pick.

 
68JL
      ID: 92551316
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 19:08
11.09 Chien-Ming Wang

I needed starting pitching and there were plenty of solid options, with Ian Snell, Brad Penny, and Jered Weaver on the board. I also considered Sherrill, but I just don't see him hanging on to the closer role in Baltimore. In retrospect, I probably should've ignored my gut and taken the risk on Sherrill. I decided to go with Wang, though, because he looks like a sure-bet to win 18-20 games with that Yankee offense. It came down to Snell and Wang. Their ratios will be about the same, but Snell will strike out 100 more hitters and Wang will win 10 more games. In the end, I decided to go with the Wins. Tough choice.
 
69Dave R
      SuperDude
      ID: 3010361110
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 19:14
11.10 Jered Weaver sp LAA

I don't know if I am alone, but I love to watch Jered pitch. He doesn't seem to be overpowering , but just gets the job done. Some one did a great job in teaching him how to pitch.

Weaver was a huge success when he was promoted in 2006, posting an 11-2 record with an ERA of 2.56 and WHIP of 1.033. Last year he had some injury issues but still posted a record of 13-7, although his ratios weren't as stellar and his K rate was down.

I'm banking on a healthy season and an improvement in last years numbers. Pitching for an excellent LAA team he should be able to notch 15 wins or so and be a solid third starter for my team.
 
73dror
      ID: 5283329
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 19:43
11.11 George Sherrill, RP, BAL
Sherrill is the 29th closer taken up untill now. The only team that is yet to have it's closer taken is Texas, witch is a complete mess and has no clear guy. So basicly, Sherrill was the last guy on the board to have sure save chances at the start of the season. The way I see it, the difference between 2 and 3 closers is huge. While staying with 2 probably means I'm in the middle of the pack, having 3 puts me in a great position for a top 3 finish in saves. In terms of category points (witch is eventually what we are playing for), I can't see any single player left on the board who can even come close to have such an effect.

Sherrill is a good pitcher. From what I have seen and read about him, he has both the stuff and the atitude to be a fine closer. The O's are gonna suck badly this year, but I can deffenetly see Sherrill saving 30 games with strong averages and plenty of K's.


for blue hen
11.12 Brad Penny, SP, LAD
In the 8th round, I noticed that there were a lot of starting pitchers available. I sorted through them and Brett Myers was at the top of my list. Suddenly, two closers went, and I saw a run coming and a short list of closers before a dropoff. Besides, there are so many pitchers around, one will HAVE to make it back to me, right? So I took Brad Lidge.

In retrospect, it's even better. I took Brad Penny, who isn't quite where Myers is but can definitely be an ace at any time. And I took him three rounds later, allowing me to get Lidge, and also Glaus and Hermida. I've had Penny on my teams a lot - he's usually hurt and I can get him late. I know this is an injury risk and he's my second starter, but I'm happy to have someone of this caliber before the draft gets too thin.

 
74Taxman
      SuperDude
      ID: 029463114
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 19:48
11.13 Aaron Hill, 2B, TOR

I'm surprised Hill was still on the board 11 rounds into the draft and represents a higher value than other 11th round middle infielders. Hill is the Toronto version of Ian Kinsler, sans SB. Hill is 25 and thus hasn't reached his prime. He hit 17 homers last year in 600 AB (meaning he shows up each day and doesn't mail it in) generating a .459 SLG%. He will probably hit at the bottom of an impressive Toronto line-up and I look for him to produce 90 runs and 80 RBI's, single digit SB, a low, but acceptable .335 OBA and a big .470 SLG% as he hits 26 dingers.
 
75Tosh
      Leader
      ID: 057721710
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 20:00
11.14 ~ Ted Lilly, SP, CHC
Heading into the next two picks is sort of easy. I need starting pitching, and a shortstop. So I made a queue for each position, and picked away. My queue leading into this one was Weaver, Penny, Lilly … but the first two players got picked, so I’m left with Ted Lilly. Good strikeout numbers, reasonable ERA & WHIP, and a good chance for Ws pitching for the Cubbies.
 
76Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 425869
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 20:09
11.15 Edwin Encarnacion, 3b, Cin

I owned EE last year in a couple leagues and he really stunk it up early in the season. He actually raised his average from .219 from .289 once he got called back up. So, hopefully we see a consistent Encarnacion, and consistent as far as late last season, not early...
 
77JeffG
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 20:20
11.16 Ty Wigginton 2B/3B HOU

I kind of liked Ibanez or Cuddyer here, but I could not go too much longer this draft without at least filling one of my 2b or 3b slots soon. Wiggington is Yahoo eligible in both positions. He's not really an on-base guy and certainly not a steals guy, but has a little pop which will benefit with his new home ballpark in Houston. I like the roster flexibility I will have with Ty being both CI and MI eligible, especially depending on what dregs I have to get at the bottom of the barrel later on in the draft or when making roster moves during the year.


12.01 Joba Chamberlain RP NYY

Here in NY you can't escape the "Joba-mania" hype. He is definitely going to return to earth, but I drafted him expecting nothing more than a high-tier middle releiver who will yield a good K ratio and contribute favorably to the averages. The Yankees seem comitted to stick to their guns and limit him to 140 innings this season by starting him out in the set up role and later move him to the starting rotation. We'll see if it really plays out that way. Contrary to his unreasonable expectations, I know he is not the second coming, otherwise my rationale would look like this:

12.01 Joba Rules RP/SP

Joba stuff is redunkulous. Assuming he is not attacked again my midge-flies, I project 140IP 5 W, 5 sv, 0.30 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 420 K.
.
 
78Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 425869
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 20:46
12.02 Ian Snell, SP, Pit

I decided I'd get a 3b and a starting pitcher this time through, so now it was time for a sp. Snell stuck out as I was looking through the available pitchers with his high strikeout numbers. His numbers were actually better last year than his w/l record might suggest, and he's still just 26 - so somewhat keeping with my strategy of trying to get guys with more upside and potential for having a breakout season.
 
79Tosh
      Leader
      ID: 057721710
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 20:56
12.03 ~ Julio Lugo, SS, BOS

I had a hard time choosing between Ryan Theriot (pick 12.05), Stephen Drew (pick 12.07), and Lugo. Theriot and Drew seem like good young players with upside … but I’m not convinced how far the upside goes. With Lugo … I think I know what to expect. As a Lugo owner in a couple leagues in 2007, I know that he pretty much stunk. I expect some of his batting average and power to return, and with his speed and the RedSox lineup, he’ll be good in SBs and runs.
 
80Taxman
      SuperDude
      ID: 029463114
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 21:17
12.04 Greg Maddux, SP, SD

In an effort to accumulate Wins without undue exposure of my WHIP and ERA, Maddux is a gift. He is not very sexy with maybe 120 K's, but he also doesn't walk anyone and he pitches half his games at spacious PETCO. Maddox has aged gracefully and continues to deliver within spitting distance ERA of 4.00 and a WHIP of 2.50 with double digit wins (between 12 and 15 the past 5 years). This year, with more offense behind him, I look for Maddux to deliver 15 Wins, 115 K's, a 4.00 ERA with a 2.30 WHIP.

 
81dror
      ID: 5283329
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 21:47
placeholder
12.05 Ryan Theriot, MI, CHC
I can't lie. I am counting on Ryan Theriot to help me win RIBC this season. Some picks, like Ryan Howard and Jake Peavy, were easy. Just take the best hitter and the best pitcher. Others were fairly straightforward. Need another starting pitcher, take Brad Penny.

With Theriot, it's more than that. At best, Theriot thrives, stealing 40 bases, with an OBP around .380, and even throws in some power. In the 12th round from a middle infielder, that can change a season. I knew I wanted Theriot on my team. It was just a matter of when I was going to draft him.

At this point, most of my starting players are picked. I am really just filling out my lineup. Most players picked will just help the cause along. But Theriot can change a season. And here's hoping he does.

 
82dror
      ID: 5283329
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 21:58
12.06 Jack Cust, OF, OAK
When I made my top secret list of late round value picks for this year and noticed that it was dominated by OFs, I decided that this is the position I feel the most comfortable waiting on and filling in the later rounds. Well, it's the 12th round, and it's finally time for my first OF.

Cust is one of the guys are targeted for my team all along. He has a terrific combination of on-base and power skills that fit this league well, and while the A's are not excatly an offensive powerhouse, as their everyday cleanup hitter he should have more then respectable Rs and RBIs. I can easily see him producing a Burrell-like .400/.500/90/100 line, only for a much lower cost.
 
83JL
      ID: 302241320
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 22:24
for Dave R
12.07 Stephen Drew, SS, Ari
There were alot of ways I considered going with this pick. I figured to try and grab a 3rd MI, targeting Theriot, but he was taken 2 picks earlier. Great pick Blue Hen.

How odd, Stephen taken ahead of big brother J.D. This pick is all about potential and upside. In his rookie season, albeit limited, Drew batted .316, and had an OPS of .874. Last year, however was a nightmare.

Drew is to talented not to turn things around this year. He has 20-25 HR potential and the base running ability to swipe 15 -20 bases. If he can get his OPS up over .800, this is a 12th round steal

 
84JL
      ID: 302241320
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 22:31
12.08 Phil Hughes, SP, NYY

I needed a starting pitcher and there weren't many attractive options available, so I went with the "tremendous upside potential" of Hughes. He's got great stuff. He's been one of baseball's most hyped prospects. He performed reasonably well last season. He's a starting pitcher on a team that should win 90+ games. This pick could turn out very well if Hughes has a breakout year.
 
86Flying Polack
      Sustainer
      ID: 378582811
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 23:05
for RoBoGuRu
12.09 Dustin McGowan, SP, Tor
For the third straight round I had Ryan Garko on top of my queue but based on the picks in front of me, couldn't pull the trigger. I decided to go SP4 here and take a high upside breakout candidate instead since, even if I don't get Garko next round(and I obviously didn't), I felt the drop off wasn't that great that I couldn't overcome it.

As long as McGowan's arm survives the increased innings, I like his chances of getting me something like 15W, 150K, 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

 
87Flying Polack
      Sustainer
      ID: 378582811
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 23:06
12.10 Jeremy Bonderman, P, Det
Like Milledge, Bonderman has been at the top of my draft board for a while. There have been 23 SP’s taken that are ranked lower than Bonderman. Unlike Milledge, I haven’t avoided Bonderman due to uncertainty. As a Tiger fan, I’ve planned on drafting him for a while. Looking at the other RIBC drafts, this is were I assumed I could safely take him and it worked out.

Most people think his 2007 season was a disappointment, he finished with a 5.01 ERA and 1.39 WHIP after being drafted 5.04 in last year’s RIBC. Watching in him on a daily basis and looking at his split stats, I can see a different story. Jeremy’s numbers at the ASB last year were, 106 IP, 98K, 3.48 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. After the break he just fell apart and finished with a 7.38 ERA in 12 starts. He was clearly injured. Just watching him you could tell he was laboring more than usual. The Tigers shut him down in early September. Hopefully a full off-season healed him. All the reports out of camp are positive.

As long as he’s healthy, Bondo was a steal in the 12th round. Some people have even called him a future Hall-Of-Famer. I don’t know if I’ll go that far.
 
88Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 23:08
12.11 Ryan Garko, 1B, Cle
I almost took Garko in round 11, but thought he might slide to this round, and I also had a couple other firstbasemen in mind as alternatives. I still have a hole at 1B (although I could put Youkilis at 1B leaving my hole at 3B), and it’s time to fill it.

Garko is off to a good spring, and might start the year batting as high as 5th in the order, behind Hafner and VMart. That wouldn’t hurt. In any event, he’s 27 and coming off his first season of almost-everyday action, so I would expect continued improvement. Consensus projects have him at 72-87-.360-.490, and I think there is some upside potential there.

I thought about adding another pitcher here, but decided to keep my foot on the hitting pedal instead.
 
89StLCards
      Dude
      ID: 31010716
      Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 11:00
for Bash Brothers
12.12 Jonathan Broxton RP LAD
I've been eyeing him since 2007. In my AAA draft last year, I was targeting him at the same position (12.12) but was too late to grab him. So I am very happy I finally have him on my team. One of the best closer-in-waiting in the game, he has posted excellent ERA and WHIP for 2 consecutive years. And his K total might be better than quite a few SPs who pitch twice as many innings as he does. Oh well, he is just 23. With Saito's age and health concern, Broxton might take over his role any time soon and blossom into next K. Rod.

The downside of this pitch comes from the real world. As a Dodger fan, you want to see Broxton in the 8th and Saito in the 9th. That's nearly automatic "light out". To have Broxton assume the closer's role, there must be something wrong with Saito. That would be really really sad.

 
90StLCards
      Dude
      ID: 31010716
      Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 11:01
for coldwater coyotes
12.13 Willy Taveras OF COL
Up to this point I was clearly lacking speed and Taveras should give me 40+ SBs. Obviously he will hurt my SLG% but with the likes of Thome and Chipper on my team I can live with it.
 
91StLCards
      Dude
      ID: 31010716
      Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 11:02
for Uptown Bombers
12.14 Johnny Damon OF NYY
Certainly in the tail end of his career, but does he have one year left in him? I think so. I needed a third OF, and I was looking to add 20 steals. Last year Damon really struggled in SLG, but was actually good enough in the other stats, especially as my 3rd OF. I figure he will continue that at least and could possibly bounce back to a more respectable SLG. Best thing he has going for him is the switch to DH duty, part time at least. Hopefully that keeps him healthier than last year. The Yanks don’t have many options for leadoff, so Damon should produce numbers by default.
 
92StLCards
      Dude
      ID: 31010716
      Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 11:03
for StLCards
12.15 Billy Butler OF KAN
I was right in waiting to take my hitters as most of the guys I had in my queue were still available this round. On the other hand, it is somewhat disconcerting that no one wanted my players. I had this pick all lined up and was sure of what I was doing almost since my 11.02 pick. Then two picks before my turn the draft hit a delay and went into the overnight pause giving me way too much time to think about things. I had Beltre at the top of my queue and then was going to take either Ibanez or Butler in that order on my next pick. I also considered going with pitching and taking Harden and Betancourt. Projecting over the next two rounds though it seemed apparent that pitching was largely addressed by most teams in the last two rounds and now hitting would again be the priority. I thought about taking MI here as that will probably go in these rounds, but no one really jumps out at me.

Overnight I decided that Beltre wasn’t really a good value for what my needs were and that I really should work on the OF now while I have the opportunity. Butler qualifies at OF and should hit in a power spot. He got some seasoning last year so hopefully he has had time to adjust to big league pitching and won’t have a hole in his swing. I do expect some slumps over the season and I don’t like having two Royals on my team necessarily as it goes against what I like to do, but he has more upside than Ibanez does so I will take him and see what happens.

 
93Building 7
      ID: 48033121
      Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 11:45
12.16, Oliver Perez, SP, NYM

12 starting pitchers were selected since my last pick. I was hoping this guy would make it. K per inning, mid 3's ERA, 1.30 whip. Good offense, pitchers park, free agent next year. If he can only remember how to pitch well. Or how to pitch strikes. If he can repeat last year, that would be great.
 
94Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 11:37
Rationales for rounds 13-18