Forum: base
Page 19744
Subject: 2008-09 offseason thread

  Posted by: blue hen - [299161612] Thu, Oct 30, 2008, 13:22
The Royals have acquired Mike Jacobs for pitcher Leo Nunez.
 
1Kyle
      Donor
      ID: 052753312
      Thu, Oct 30, 2008, 13:26 		LOL, a HUGE offseason acquisition that will effect every fantasy league out there ;)

Good info BH!
 
2Donkey Hunter
      Leader
      ID: 916288962
      Thu, Oct 30, 2008, 13:27 		I guess the importance here is the Marlins showing they will trade anyone who does well enough to earn an arbitration raise the next season. Take that players who perform well for them on the field!
 
3clv
      Sustainer
      ID: 5911351713
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 16:29 		"I guess the importance here is the Marlins showing they will trade anyone who does well enough to earn an arbitration raise the next season. Take that players who perform well for them on the field!

Guess that means it's time to start lining up prospects for Maybin before long. He closed strong after being called up, and likely qualifies as a "Super Two" player following this season.
 
4Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Mon, Nov 10, 2008, 15:51 		Matt Holliday said to be on the cusp of being traded to Oakland!

ESPN

Thanks hen for the text!
 
5Seattle Zen
      ID: 49112418
      Mon, Nov 10, 2008, 16:35 		Matt Holliday said to be on the cusp of being traded to Oakland!

BOO! Poor Holliday, it's bad enough that he is losing Coors Field for half his games, his RBI numbers will really shrink as the A's offense sucks. Plus, he will obviously be packaged and traded sometime before the deadline as the A's certainly won't keep him as a free agent. Man, this blows.
 
6Nerfherders
      ID: 64532914
      Tue, Nov 11, 2008, 02:06 		It blows for my fair city of Denver too. He had really become the face of the Rockies. A hard-nosed gritty GREAT player doesn't come along too often.

If the rumors are true, Colorado will be getting some nice players in return, namely Street and Carlos Gonzalez.
 
7J
      Leader
      ID: 049346417
      Tue, Nov 11, 2008, 09:17 		The Nationals acquired Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham from the Marlins for second baseman Emilio Bonifacio and two minor league players, pitcher P.J. Dean and shortstop Jake Smolinski.


Seems like the fish usually get more in their trades. Advantage...Nats. (IMO)
 
8Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Thu, Nov 13, 2008, 15:56 		ESPN reports that the Yankees have acquired 1b/OF Nick Swisher from the White Sox for minor league SP Jeff Marquez (although more could be involved in the deal).

I assume it's a salary dump for CHW....even so, I'd imagine the Yankees threw something else into the mix.

I love it for the Yanks.....basically a cheaper version of Bobby Abreu. Solid OBP, good power and the versatility of OF/1b doesn't hurt either. I think his BA was a fluke, and in a stacked Yankee lineup, his bat should play quite nicely.
 
9barilko6
      ID: 58133021
      Thu, Nov 13, 2008, 16:07 		Cubs acquired RHP Kevin Gregg from the Marlins for RHP Jose Ceda.
 
10Seattle Zen
      ID: 49112418
      Thu, Nov 13, 2008, 18:05 		Believe me, Species, every non-Yankee fan is heartily applauding the fact that they acquired Swisher. You can have him. Oh, and please, play him in the outfield as often as possible!
 
11JeffG
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Fri, Nov 14, 2008, 11:47 		I imagine Swish becomes the Giambi replacement as the every day 1B and will not see any real time in the OF, especially not in CF even though the Gardner/Melky platoon is a very shaky proposition. Although the Yanks also picked up a minor leage RP named Texeira in this deal, I guess this puts real Teixeira out of the Yankee mix, which means more $$ for the starters they are going to go heavily after.

Swish's power comes from the left side of the plate which is good with the new ballpark dimensions, but his BA from 2008 is worrisome, and his OBP even in his prior years is a big drop from the much more patient Giambi.
 
12Seattle Zen
      ID: 358591721
      Sat, Nov 15, 2008, 12:28 		Yanks want to make CC rich.

6 years and $140 million, just over the amount the Mets paid Johan. I think this is terribly risky. CC obviously does not work out and at his weight he is certainly an injury risk. Furthermore, he is reportedly moody, needs motivation from outside. Other than an performance-enhanced Clemens, there hasn't been many big dollar free agent pitchers who have done well in pinstripes. He certainly can be a great pitcher, but just as certainly could bomb horribly.
 
13Perm Dude
      ID: 21041510
      Sat, Nov 15, 2008, 13:08 		He certainly can be a great pitcher...

He is a good pitcher, and all those things you mention (plus one more--his high pitch count) has been thrown at him over his entire career.

He's 27 years old and has already won 117 games. He's a strikeout machine and an innings eater.

You're right than many pitchers come to NYC and don't do well (comes from the Yankee's mentality of buying up the best pitchers from small market teams and throwing them out there). Sabathia lives on the pressure, however.

I'd hate to see Sabathia in NY, but I think they have a lot to offer Sabathia and he'll immediately step into Mussina's role.
 
14blue hen
      ID: 86502521
      Sat, Nov 15, 2008, 19:21 		Several reports that the Yankees are looking at Jake Peavy. I think that's awesome. A team that's always after the best pitcher by trade AND the best free agent.

Bu that's the Yankees. How about the Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, Mets, and Braves, who always seem to have the big names headed their way? It's a little frustrating that the Phillies aren't in the same circle. They'd rather Pedro Feliz their way to a title. Or Jamie Moyer there. Or Joe Blanton.

Guess what, Ruben Amaro: that's not the way it works. It's a terrible way to defend a title.
 
15Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Sun, Nov 16, 2008, 16:59 		A team that's always after the best pitcher by trade AND the best free agent.

No shit. Kind of like Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Name the last time the Yankees acquired two top line starters in one offseason as you describe. I'm sick and tired of the Yankees being the only team painted with this F-ing brush.
 
16blue hen
      ID: 86502521
      Sun, Nov 16, 2008, 23:20 		I'll give you Beckett and Dice-K. But I don't think the Red Sox are quite where the Yankees are. Even in the last two years - Abreu, Swisher, Pudge, Sexson, Posada, Rivera, Mussina, and some guy named ARod. Nobody matches the Yankees.
 
17Khahan
      ID: 1065339
      Mon, Nov 17, 2008, 11:00 		Or John Lester, Clay Bucholz, Manny Delcarmen.
Oh and Johnathan Papelbon.
 
18Perm Dude
      ID: 431039178
      Mon, Nov 17, 2008, 11:01 		A couple of rich girls in a slap fight as to which one is richer. Nice.
 
19Khahan
      ID: 1065339
      Mon, Nov 17, 2008, 11:07 		And to be fair, the Yankees are looking at a future with Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. Yes, both teams are still spending large sums of cash on signing FA and bringing top players via trade. But both teams in the past few years have changed their philosophy and are building a farm system.
 
20blue hen
      ID: 299161612
      Mon, Nov 17, 2008, 11:10 		Lester and Papelbon I'll give you, but that's not much different than the Mets or Dodgers or Angels or Cubs. Delcarmen? They shelled out big bucks for him?

Posada? Best hitting catcher in baseball at the time. Re-sign with a ludicrous deal as a free agent. Rivera? The same exact sentence applies to him. ARod, already the wealthiest ballplayer by far, signs the richest contract in the history of sports. Bobby Abreu? They got him solely because they would take on his bloated contract. These aren't $10 million contracts here. This is some serious money, even for baseball.
 
21Rendle
      Donor
      ID: 014815714
      Mon, Nov 17, 2008, 11:23 		For the Indians, I would be happy if Shapiro could acquire Trevor Hoffman and Brian Roberts.
 
22Great One
      ID: 3110581210
      Mon, Nov 17, 2008, 12:08 		I think the Yankees are playing a game called "how many players can we have that make more than the entire Florida Marlins"
 
23Khahan
      ID: 1065339
      Mon, Nov 17, 2008, 13:37 		BH, post 17 (and 19) was more in response to the comment that Boston and NY only get pitching via FA and trades. Point is that the comment no longer applies. Boston (and NY both) have begun to develop their own guys in the minors.
 
24blue hen
      ID: 299161612
      Mon, Nov 17, 2008, 14:24 		Oh the Yankees developed Rivera - no doubt about it. But when he was a free agent, they paid a ton to get him.
 
25Khahan
      ID: 1065339
      Mon, Nov 17, 2008, 15:01 		I view guys like Rivera a little different. He's a home grown product. Brought up and developed by the Yankees. When it comes time to for them to be FA (and they will ALL be FA at some point), a team can do 1 of 2 things:

a) Let them go
b) pay to keep their homegrown talent


If you are going to knock the Yankees and Red Sox and Dodgers for bigtime FA spending, knock them for players that others helped developed and they bought. Don't knock them for developing a key player and then doing what it takes to keep them around.
 
26blue hen
      ID: 299161612
      Mon, Nov 17, 2008, 16:31 		"What it takes"?

Did the Mariners hold onto ARod, Randy, Griffey?

Did the Indians hold onto Thome, Sabathia, Manny, Colon?

Did the Marlins hold onto anyone?

Did the Rockies hold onto Holliday?

Did the A's hold onto Giambi, Zito, Hudson, Mulder, Tejada?

Did the Twins hold onto Hunter, Santana?

Are the Brewers going to hold onto Sheets, Fielder, Hart, Braun?
 
27Great One
      ID: 4310251715
      Tue, Nov 18, 2008, 14:14 		Slizz, do I get a bonus on my bet earlier this year with Marko that Pedroia is better than Cano... now thats he's MVP!?!

I think I deserve an extra 20 bucks or something.

 
28Slizz
      ID: 4710371415
      Tue, Nov 18, 2008, 15:33 		lol. the bet seemed a little ridiculous, but I'm sure he'd rather have a world series ring instead :/

freakin' phillies.

 
29Razor
      ID: 181051618
      Wed, Nov 19, 2008, 00:06 		So when was the last time the MVP was the 4th or 5th best player on his own team? Manny, Ortiz, Youkilis, Beckett, Papelbon, Daisuke. Take your pick.
 
30blue hen
      ID: 299161612
      Wed, Nov 19, 2008, 10:16 		While I wholeheartedly agree with your overall point, give Pedroia a little more credit than that. Ortiz had a similar OPS to Pedroia, in far fewer at bats. There's not much of a case that he was better. And Manny was traded away and had even fewer at bats. J.D. Drew is another guy who was pretty great but again missed a large chunk of time. Among hitters, only Youkilis has a really strong case (and was, in fact, much better than Pedroia).

As for pitchers, I don't think Papelbon has enough innings to match Youkilis or Pedroia, and Beckett's definitely not there this year. Dice-K and Lester are in the discussion, but both have a lot of warts. I don't think either one is at that level, but I will admit that it's close.

How about 2006? Joe Mauer was significantly better than Morneau, and Santana was the best pitcher on the planet. Liriano had an awesome year (albeit in only 121 innings), and Nathan was even better than Papelbon 08. I think that's a very fair comparison.

And let's not forget 2007 Jimmy Rollins, when Utley and Howard were both better.

You're right that Pedroia was not the world's greatest candidate, but it's definitely happened before.
 
31barilko6
      ID: 48563014
      Wed, Nov 19, 2008, 12:05 		Kansas City picking up Coco Crisp for Ramon Ramirez, who was pretty decent in relief last year for the Royals.

Combined with the Jacobs move, I can't really tell what the Royals are doing. Do they have a plan at all? They now have too many 1b/3b/DH guys and too many OF guys, all of which are either below average or just plain middle of the road. These seems to be a team without a plan.
 
32blue hen
      ID: 299161612
      Wed, Nov 19, 2008, 12:18 		Coco does have good defense, which could help the young KC pitchers.
 
33barilko6
      ID: 48563014
      Wed, Nov 19, 2008, 12:24 		It guess it could make a little more sense if they have a buyer lined up for Teahan, DeJesus, or Guillen.

 
34Rendle
      Donor
      ID: 014815714
      Wed, Nov 19, 2008, 15:01 		Meh, I would have taken A-rod or Sizemore over Pedroia for AL MVP. Tough year though.
 
35Great One
      ID: 4310251715
      Wed, Nov 19, 2008, 16:17 		Boston.com

The 25-year-old Pedroia emerged as a franchise cornerstone and an offensive force in his second full major league season, batting .326 with 17 home runs and 83 RBIs while establishing franchise records for a season by a second baseman in runs, hits, doubles, batting average, total bases, and extra-base hits

Both Boston writers voted Pedroia first, and the argument can be made that he had one of the best seasons by a player at his position in recent history. Pedroia led the majors with 54 doubles, tied Seattle's Ichiro Suzuki for first with 213 hits, and ranked second with 118 runs and 61 multi-hit games, both AL highs. He also stole 20 bases in 21 attempts.

He became the third major league second baseman ever to tally 100 runs, 200 hits, 50 doubles, and 20 steals in a season, joining the Yankees' Alfonso Soriano (2002) and the Astros' Craig Biggio (1998).

After a slow start -- he was batting .260 on June 13 -- the fiery Pedroia was consistently outstanding through the rest of the summer, but his MVP candidacy gained momentum during a late-season stretch when he seemed to singlehandedly carry the Sox.

During a five-game period when Youkilis was briefly sidelined, Pedroia batted cleanup and hit .667 (12 for 18) with four doubles, two home runs, seven RBIs, and six runs scored. He batted .345 with an OPS of .949 in the second half, and in August and September, he batted a combined .353 with a .995 OPS.

 
36blue hen
      ID: 299161612
      Wed, Nov 19, 2008, 17:06 		Are you kidding me? Utley was better than Pedroia THIS YEAR.
 
37Nerfherders
      ID: 347242717
      Thu, Nov 20, 2008, 15:42 		Utley to have hip surgery, might be out until June.

That should drop him a few rounds in the draft next spring.
 
38JeffG
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Fri, Nov 21, 2008, 09:39 		Just a shout-out to Moose who announced his retirement yesterday. He probably could have stuck around and been effective for another year or two but nice way to end it with a 20 win season.

There are good arguments on both sides of Mussina's HOF chances, but there are alot of other starting pitchers in his era that will have to sort themselves out - R.Johnson, Clemens, Maddox, Smoltz, Pedro, Glavine, maybe even Pettitte. I'm not sure Mussina makes it.
 
39blue hen
      ID: 299161612
      Fri, Nov 21, 2008, 10:53 		Sort themselves out? Randy, Maddux, Pedro, and Glavine are in. Clemens is in on his stats. Pettitte is probably out. Smoltz is on the fence although I'd guess he gets in pretty easily.

There are a few others in this category: Schilling, Kevin Brown, David Wells, and even Jack Morris. Schilling's in, Brown and Morris are out, and Wells is the kind of player who gets in even though he shouldn't.

My guess is Mussina gets in and I'd say he deserves it.
 
40Perm Dude
      ID: 331032110
      Fri, Nov 21, 2008, 12:19 		He was pretty darn good for a long time. Without looking it up, I think he only had one losing season. Depending upon who else is on the ballot at the time, he could be a first ballot guy.
 
41Razor
      ID: 181051618
      Fri, Nov 21, 2008, 12:29 		Mussina first ballot? Not in my book. I think he is very borderline. Was he ever dominant? No Cy Youngs hurts.

I also would not put Schilling in. 0 Cy Youngs and only 216 wins. Hell, he has only received votes for Cy Young four times. Mussina received votes 9 times.
 
42Perm Dude
      ID: 331032110
      Fri, Nov 21, 2008, 12:54 		I would agree on Schilling. He's been hurt too much the last couple of seasons, which has probably killed his chances.

Mussina has a couple of things going for him that I think will close the deal: A great win percentage, and postseason success. Obviously he's got the counting stats (top 20 all time in Ks, 270 wins, etc).
 
43Seattle Zen
      ID: 49112418
      Fri, Nov 21, 2008, 14:35 		So this has become a HOF thread, eh? Winning 20 games in his last season was the perfect coda for Mussina as HOF voters are completely enamored with wins and everyone made a point of mentioning that Moose had never had a 20 win season. 270 wins certainly looks better than 250. But how does he get in when Bert Blyleven is not and Bert's resume is superior?

David Wells stands NO chance of getting in and is the opposite of the player "who gets in even though he shouldn't." The Pee Wee Reeces of the HOF are players who slide in on the fact that their team was so dominate during the player's peak years (happens more in the NFL HOF). Wells is a bum who bounced from team to team and was proud of his bumness. No chance. Don't see Schilling getting in either - many dominate seasons, no consistency in his career.
 
44Bandos
      ID: 279592021
      Fri, Nov 21, 2008, 22:24 		If you want to look at absolute value, I have to say WARP is a pretty good measurement.

Cliff Lee 10.4
Mariano Rivera 10.3
Dustin Pedroia 9.8
Roy Halladay 9.8
Joe Mauer 9.6

Since pitchers rarely win, it was a kind of a slam dunk for Pedroia in a weak year. And yes, it is obvious that he was the MVP of his own team.

Youk 8.4
 
45blue hen
      ID: 86502521
      Sun, Nov 23, 2008, 18:06 		Is that considering Youk as a first baseman?
 
46J
      Leader
      ID: 049346417
      Mon, Nov 24, 2008, 16:32 		According to Sweeny Murti of WFAN, the Giants signed shortstop Edgar Renteria to a two-year, $18MM contract.

Is he really worth $9 mil a year?
 
47Perm Dude
      ID: 341020249
      Mon, Nov 24, 2008, 16:36 		The Giants thought Omar Vizquel was worth $5.5 mill last year. Edgar's agent is a pretty smart guy.
 
48Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Mon, Nov 24, 2008, 17:21 		Geezus the Giants overpay for EVERYBODY
 
49Razor
      ID: 181051618
      Mon, Nov 24, 2008, 23:01 		Sabean is one of the worst GM's in the game. His best move was ignoring Bonds' steroid abuse. If it were not for that, the Giants probably would have been one of the worst teams in baseball over the last decade. They seemingly had no plan for life after Bonds. Lincecum was the only thing that saved them from a 100-loss season.
 
50blue hen
      ID: 299161612
      Tue, Nov 25, 2008, 10:04 		... and Matt Cain
 
51Mith
      ID: 2894309
      Tue, Nov 25, 2008, 10:47 		Yes Mussina was dominant at times. Never the best pitcher in the game, but top 10-12 in MLB in about half of his seasons and almost always better than average. Only about 1/3 of the teams he played on were mediocre or worse but his career spanned the enitre steroid era. His career ERA is .83 runs better than the American League over that period.

Looking at the career stats, I think he compares favorably with Blyleven if you consider the eras they played in. I'm a little young to remember Blyleven in his prime. The pitcher I recall in the 1980s was not particularly impressive.

IMO I'd call Moose just a touch better than a borderline case. I'd say he warrants induction after lingering a good number of years on the ballot.

Pettitte falls short IMO.
 
52blue hen
      ID: 299161612
      Tue, Nov 25, 2008, 10:54 		Blyleven had a 140 ERA+ in 1989, which is pretty spectacular. Mussina only had one season over 140 with the Yankees. Blyleven had 4 other seasons over 140, and Mussina had 3, all before 1995. For their careers, Mussina is at 123 and Blyleven is at 118. They turn out pretty similarly.
 
53Mith
      ID: 2894309
      Tue, Nov 25, 2008, 11:15 		They were both better in the first half of their careers. Moose had only 1 year below 95 ERA+ and Blyleven had 4 of those.

The career WHIP comparison is notable (again, given the eras they played in) and Moose carried a 7.1 K/9 compared with Blyleven's 6.7 mark.
 
54blue hen
      ID: 299161612
      Tue, Nov 25, 2008, 11:29 		What was the league K/9 mark during each career?
 
55Mith
      ID: 2894309
      Tue, Nov 25, 2008, 11:45 		No idea. I did the math from their respective career totals. I imagine it was higher during Blyleven's career than Moose's. Not sure where to look for that.
 
56Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Tue, Nov 25, 2008, 14:34 		For my money, and my standards are high, neither Blyleven or Mussina deserve HOF enshrinement.
 
57Seattle Zen
      ID: 358591721
      Tue, Nov 25, 2008, 17:10 		Here's Bert's K/9 during his career when he was in the top ten of his league, from Baseball Reference

Strikeouts/9IP - League Rank
1970 AL-7.41-6
1971 AL-7.24-6
1972 AL-7.14-5
1973 AL-7.14-3
1974 AL-7.98-2
1975 AL-7.61-3
1976 AL-6.62-4
1977 AL-6.98-5
1978 NL-6.72-4
1979 NL-6.52-4
1980 NL-6.98-4
1981 AL-6.04-6
1984 AL-6.24-7
1985 AL-6.31-7

Here's Moose

Strikeouts/9IP - League Rank
1996 AL-7.55-5
1997 AL-8.73-4
1998 AL-7.63-6
1999 AL-7.61-6
2000 AL-7.95-6
2001 AL-8.42-5
2002 AL-7.60-3
2003 AL-8.18-3
2005 AL-7.11-7
2006 AL-7.84-9

Slightly better raw numbers for Moose, but Bert was usually higher in the league standings. Bert was in the top 10 fourteen years, Moose ten.

I didn't realize this until now, but Blyleven was only 19 years old in 1970, when he had a ERA+ of 119, which was good for tenth in the AL. I always remember him as an old guy :)
 
58blue hen
      ID: 299161612
      Tue, Nov 25, 2008, 18:21 		I think that answers #54. Bert was really really good.
 
59Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Sun, Nov 30, 2008, 17:05 		Boston Red Sox reported to sign Junichi Tazawa

Red Sox look to diss Nippon Professional Baseball by signing the "amateur" Tazawa against the wishes of NPB.

Damned Red Sox trying to buy championships with their checkbook!
 
60J
      Leader
      ID: 049346417
      Mon, Dec 01, 2008, 10:30 		RE 46 According to Sweeny Murti of WFAN, the Giants signed shortstop Edgar Renteria to a two-year, $18MM contract.

Apparently this was not true. Should've known better, apparently the Tigers could still offer him arbitration through today's deadline, so they had full negotiation rights with him.
 
61PuNk42AE
      Donor
      ID: 036635522
      Mon, Dec 01, 2008, 12:06 		Also was a Rumor that LAD was going to offer to Rent. Now it's down to if the Tigers offer him Arb or not. Would make the Trade with Atlanta all that more crappy if they don't offer him Arb.
 
62J
      Leader
      ID: 049346417
      Tue, Dec 02, 2008, 12:28 		The Astros signed LHP Mike Hampton to a one-year, $2 million deal, reports FoxSports.com.
 
63blue hen
      Leader
      ID: 710321114
      Wed, Dec 03, 2008, 12:15 		AL MVP Dustin Pedroia signed a 6-year deal for 40.5 million. That's 7 million a year. That seems like a pretty fantastic deal for the Red Sox.
 
64Nerfherders
      ID: 347242717
      Thu, Dec 04, 2008, 12:45 		Official now: Braves trade for Vazquez. I like this trade alot for the Braves.
 
65J
      Leader
      ID: 049346417
      Thu, Dec 04, 2008, 15:55 		It's official again, and worse than before!

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Giants signed shortstop Edgar Renteria worth $18.5MM.

Henry Schulman says Renteria's deal has a $9.5MM option for 2011 with a $500K buyout. Also, Renteria can void the option and take the buyout if he's traded during the contract.
 
66J
      Leader
      ID: 049346417
      Thu, Dec 04, 2008, 15:58 		Khalil Greene to the Cards for Mark Worrell and a PTBN (link)
 
67Razor
      ID: 181051618
      Thu, Dec 04, 2008, 16:31 		Don't know if it was age, lack of steroids or what, but Renteria was a dang fine player for many years in the NL before tanking in his two one-year stints in the AL. If he returns to his Braves from, it's a pretty good deal for the Giants.
 
68blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Mon, Dec 08, 2008, 11:20 		Tigers trade two prospects to Rangers for Gerald Laird. Obviously, he's a step up from Brandon Inge, but probably shouldn't be on a Major League roster.
 
69J
      Leader
      ID: 049346417
      Tue, Dec 09, 2008, 15:49 		According to Ted Berg at SNY, “The Mets have agreed to terms with reliever Francisco Rodriguez on a three-year contract worth $37 million, pending a physical.”
 
70barilko6
      ID: 48563014
      Tue, Dec 09, 2008, 16:41 		THat would be cheap, considering what the Reds paid for Cordero last year...4 years, 48 million
 
71Electroman
      ID: 47928246
      Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 07:51 		Sabathia to Yanks apparantly.

 
72Mith
      ID: 2894309
      Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 09:44 		That signing will not end well.
 
73Great One
      ID: 151126410
      Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 09:54 		They said on WFAN that Yanks got Lowe as well... so we'll see.
 
74barilko6
      ID: 58133021
      Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 10:01 		AND...apparently they are close to Derek Lowe too...
 
75blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 10:09 		Re: 70, technically, it's less per year for Cordero.

Kerry Wood signs with Indians.

Casey Blake re-signs with Dodgers.
 
76Mith
      ID: 2894309
      Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 10:30 		I think the Lowe report is premature. I think this Jon Heyman report that they are close - but with the Phillies still in the mix - is being quoted as saying it's a done deal.

I hope so.
 
77blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 10:36 		In addition to Lowe, the Phils are supposedly going to trade J.A. Happ and a prospect to the Cubs for Mark DeRosa, and then Happ would go to the Padres in the Peavy deal. DeRosa would play second until Utley returns and then be part of the Pat Burrell replacement squad in left.

Terrible deal, if you ask me.
 
78Razor
      ID: 181051618
      Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 10:37 		So how does the Yankees signing the two biggest free agent pitchers sit with the "the Yankees don't overspend; they are hereos because they only take other teams over priced contracts" crowd?
 
79Donkey Hunter
      Leader
      ID: 916288962
      Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 10:57 		Well they signed CC to an overpriced contract so that it set the market for all the other free agents to get overpriced contracts. Then there will be more over priced contracts on other teams so they can be heroes again by taking them on later.
 
80barilko6
      ID: 131131010
      Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 11:03 		re: 75: technically, it's less per year for Cordero.

Umm...that was pretty much my point when I said it was pretty cheap compared to Cordero.
 
81wiggs
      Sustainer
      ID: 04991311
      Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 11:43 		I dont think the yanks are going to get Lowe, but even if they do, i dont consider him to be the 2nd best FA pitcher this year.
 
82Razor
      ID: 181051618
      Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 11:49 		Who is? AJ Burnett who is shockingly only 3 1/2 years younger than Lowe yet far more fragile?
 
83wiggs
      Sustainer
      ID: 04991311
      Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 12:08 		I would definitely take sheets over Lowe
 
84blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 12:08 		Yeah, I don't think you can find many FA pitchers ahead of Lowe.
 
85wiggs
      Sustainer
      ID: 04991311
      Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 12:16 		I think I would rather keep Pettite.
 
86barilko6
      ID: 48563014
      Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 13:32 		If Sheets can stay healthy for an extended period of time and help out in the playoffs, I would say he would be number 2...or even number 1A right there with CC.

But the fact is, even this year when he was able to pitch in 31 games, he was broken down for the playoffs...not what the Yankees need right now.

If you take out a horrendous month of May, Lowe had some pretty nice stats last year.
 
87Mith
      ID: 2894309
      Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 13:38 		Razor #78

Where is this crowd you speak of? You came here to ask that question so the implication is that Yankee fans here claim that the Yankees don't overspend. Who has made this claim?

It's really not hard to bash the Yankees and their fans. Is it really necessary for you to put words in their mouths to do so?

And Derek Lowe will be a failure if he comes to the AL. Again.
 
88Great One
      ID: 151126410
      Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 15:07 		I see CC having a couple really top notch years in NY... but then he starts the wear down and that contract becomes an albatross the last 3-4 years or so. Or it would be an albatross to any other franchise that couldn't handle wasting that much each year.
 
89ChicagoTRS
      ID: 4110481415
      Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 15:20 		CC will be 35 at the end of the contract...not really too old for a starting pitcher. Will likely not be worth the $$$ at that point but should still be minimally servicable. He would seem to have the body type that would allow him to pitch late into his career.

Anyway it is the Yankees...they have $$$ to spare not like a bad contract will have any effect on them long or short term.
 
90Perm Dude
      ID: 41131911
      Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 15:23 		I don't really see CC spending the entire contract with the Yankees. I predict a trade long before the end.
 
91Boxman
      ID: 337352111
      Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 15:55 		This is just an opportunity for anti-Yankites to spout off about the Yankees. They sign CC and it's called ludicrous, they don't sign him and they'll say they didn't address the need of SPs.

Hankie time much?

Lowe in the AL might be interesting to see, but really what else is out there? Sheets and Burnett are fragile. I don't see them getting Peavy given how close things are with the Flubs.

So the rotation could be:

Sabathia
Wang
Lowe
Burnett/Sheets
Chamberlain(?)

You could do a lot worse.

With 88 million in payroll cleared off the books and 23 million of that now committed to Sabathia, we haven't seen the last of the Yankees by a long shot. Lowe's deal reportedly averages 16.5 so that leaves 48.5 million left without even increasing payroll. With that $$$ they'll be able to sign Burnett or Sheets and make a serious run at either Manny or Tex.

On the dark horse side of free agent probabilities I was hoping they'd get K-Rod.
 
92Razor
      ID: 181051618
      Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 16:35 		Who exactly did the Yankees outbid for Sabathia? Two weeks ago, the offer was in the $140 million range. Now it's $160 million?
 
93Mith
      ID: 148402816
      Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 21:23 		Apparently they outbid his preference to stay on the west coast.
 
94Mith
      ID: 148402816
      Wed, Dec 10, 2008, 21:34 		He would seem to have the body type that would allow him to pitch late into his career.

Larger pithers tend to have more durable shoulders and elbows, so hopefully pitching over 500 innings in the past two years aren't a concern. But he clearly isn't concerned with conditioning and carrying around all that extra weight is going to start to really wear him down in a few more years. Pitchers that size rarely hold up well, with David Wells being one exception. Still, Wells missed starts due to gout and failed to make a playoff start once because of a bad back.

The best thing about this trade from my point of view is Sabathia's opt-out clause after the 3rd year. I'd love to see him notch 50 wins in 3 seasons and decide he hates New York.
 
95Great One
      ID: 4510512113
      Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 00:03 		Looks like the Mets may have gotten Putz to set up K-Rod? thats crazy!

I gotta say, if I'm a Met fan right now I'm happy with my organization. Our bullpen was a disaster last season... alright, how can we fix that? BAM! K-Rod... BAM! Putz...

They should keep going and get Fuentes to be the lefty setup guy as well. Filthy.

 
96J
      Leader
      ID: 049346417
      Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 00:10 		It cost the Mets Heilman (woohoo!!!), Endy Chavez (he'll actually be missed), Mike Carp (who will never find a defensive position, but he can rake) and Joe Smith.

Downfall - Putz will earn $5.5 million next season, after which the team can exercise a $8.6 million option for 2010, or make him a free agent. (kind of a lot for a setup guy!)

The Mets will get J.J. Putz, OF Jeremy Reed and reliever Sean Green; The Mariners will get Aaron Heilman, OF Endy Chavez, 1B Mike Carp and OF Franklin Gutierrez, plus minor leaguers from the Indians; The Indians will get RHP Joe Smith and infielder Luis Valbuena.
 
97J
      Leader
      ID: 049346417
      Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 00:32 		Here's the full trade

METS GET:
(from Mariners)
J.J. Putz
RHP Sean Green

(from Indians)
OF Jeremy Reed

MARINERS GET:
(from Mets)
Aaron Heilman
Endy Chavez
Maikel Cleto
Ezequiel Carrera
Jason Vargas
Mike Carp

(from Indians)
Franklin Gutierrez

INDIANS GET:
(from Mets)
Joe Smith

(from Mariners)
Luis Valbuena
 
98barilko6
      ID: 58133021
      Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 09:08 		Dang...

How is Kyle Farnsworth worth $9.25 million over 2 years?!?

Also Yankees just trade Melky for the $10 million man Mike Cameron.
 
100Mith
      ID: 2894309
      Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 09:48 		The Farnsworth signing is baffling, especially for a team like KC, who's front office has otherwise done a decent job in the last couple of years, I've thought.

I like the Cabrera/Cameron trade. Talent-wise I think Melky is a viable starting CF. The offensive numbers were trending down but he's still only 23 and a fine defensive player so I wouldn't discount the possibility of a few all-star seasons. I hope he does well with the other young players in Milwaukee.

But they didn't like his casual attitude, which is also why they let the door swing shut on Bobby Abreu (tho not offering Abreu arbitration was a surprising and frustrating mistake). Abreu and Melky were seen by many as distracting Robinson Cano from concentrating on his game in a year in which he fell off terribly.

Whatever you think of the Yankees' offseason moves so far, it's clear they're focusing on the clubhouse impact of these players. Swisher, Cameron and Sabathia are all players who have received glowing endorsements for the attitudes they bring to a clubhouse.
 
101Great One
      ID: 151126410
      Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 10:20 		Melky for Cameron deal is one of those good deals for everybody involved. Melky at least has some upside for the Brewers.
 
102Mith
      ID: 2894309
      Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 10:43 		Definitely a good deal for both sides. Melky clears something like $9.5m in payroll for the Brews and makes their already young lineup even younger.
 
103Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 11:32 		Outside of money (smart move by MIL), isn't anyone else thinking what I am thinking?

Rickie Weeks for CF anybody?
 
104Slizz
      ID: 4710371415
      Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 11:51 		I second GO. Yankees get one of the better Outfielders in the game today and the Brewers get someone with potential and upside.

Only thing I worry about in Milwaukee is the veteran leadership...who is going to provide it?

Jason Kendall? ha!

 
105Razor
      ID: 181051618
      Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 12:11 		Who provided the veteran leadership in Tampa? That stuff is blown out of proportion sometimes, especially if you have a loaded team.
 
106Great One
      ID: 151126410
      Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 12:12 		Eric Hinske obviously!!! :)
 
107Seattle Zen
      ID: 49112418
      Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 13:04 		Jack Zduriencik blowing things up in Seattle

"This deal didn't increase our power; that's something we'll continue to work on," Zduriencik said. "This deal had more to do with helping our club defensively. When we have Ichiro in right, Gutierrez in center and Chavez in left, we have three of the best outfielders in the game and three of the strongest arms."

No, the deal certainly didn't increase the M's power, that's the understatement of the year. That outfield playing in Safeco would hit about as many homers as the average AL outfielder, singular. Does this mean they are giving up on Wladimir Balentien again?
 
108Razor
      ID: 181051618
      Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 13:09 		Might me a good time for the M's to make a push for Texieria.
 
109Mith
      ID: 2894309
      Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 14:37 		Cameron for Cabrera deal hits the skids
New York Post - In order to facilitate a trade for Mike Cameron, the Yankees have asked Milwaukee to eat a portion of his $10 million contract, which infuriated the Brewers.

It is now up to the Yankees to either accept all of Cameron's contract and ship at least Melky Cabrera Melky Cabrera to Milwaukee or the deal is not getting done, the executive said. Another executive involved in discussions said "probably not" in describing the likelihood of a Cabrera-Cameron deal, which was first reported by the Post from the GM Meetings on Nov. 6.
 
110wiggs
      Sustainer
      ID: 04991311
      Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 14:50 		i am happy to see the trade get nixed, seems like to much money for cameron
 
111Mith
      ID: 2894309
      Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 15:53 		They just gave a record-breaking 9-figure 7 year deal to Fatty Arbuckle and you didn't like the Cameron trade because he gets $2.5m above market for 1 year?
 
112Boxman
      ID: 337352111
      Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 16:11 		It seems like the Peavy to the Cubs trade is dead for now. Apparently the Cubs grew tired of the Padres publicly naming the Cubs players that are getting dealt and were sick of playing match maker with four teams.
 
113wiggs
      Sustainer
      ID: 04991311
      Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 16:24 		They just gave a record-breaking 9-figure 7 year deal to Fatty Arbuckle and you didn't like the Cameron trade because he gets $2.5m above market for 1 year?

Cameron hit 243, 70 rbis, 17 sbs

that is an average player at best in my opinion.

I would much rather take that 9 extra million and put it towards Ben Sheets
 
114Mith
      ID: 2894309
      Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 16:28 		Whether they sign Ben Sheets has absolutely nothing to do with whether they spend an extra $9.5m on their center fielder this year.
 
115wiggs
      Sustainer
      ID: 04991311
      Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 17:29 		I guess i just dont see cameron as a 10 millions dollar a year player.
 
116PuNk42AE
      Donor
      ID: 036635522
      Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 20:47 		Tigers and Tampa made a trade last night...
OF Matt Joyce for P Edwin Jackson
 
117blue hen
      ID: 8115717
      Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 22:43 		Two guys who needed a change of scenery. Imagine having Bonderman and Jackson in 2004...

I had a chat with my Mariner friend today and he hates this deal. Gutierrez is better than Reed, but that's like being faster than Keith Hernandez. And they gave up two live pitchers. Putz we know, but don't forget than Sean Green is pretty effective.
 
118blue hen
      ID: 8115717
      Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 22:44 		I want to hear Razor's take on the Kevin Brown deal. He had some very good years there - you can't call it a total bust like Zito or Hampton.
 
119J
      Leader
      ID: 049346417
      Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 09:32 		The Phillies and outfielder Raul Ibanez have agreed to a three-year, $30 million deal, reports Ken Rosenthal at FoxSports.com.

I am NOT happy about this.
 
120Mith
      ID: 2894309
      Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 09:58 		I assume that makes the mets more likely to push for Abreu? If so, that makes the Yankees' choice to not offer him arbitration look even more foolish.
 
121barilko6
      ID: 48563014
      Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 10:09 		I have also read that the CWS are closing in on Abreu.
 
122J
      Leader
      ID: 049346417
      Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 10:48 		I do not want Abreu on the Mets...at all. I'd rather use that money on a pitcher and keep the Tatis/Murphy platoon in LF
 
123Mith
      ID: 2894309
      Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 11:05 		Abreu really is a terrific offensive player. He doesn't seem to fall into extended slumps. Looking at his monthly splits over the past 2 1/2 years he spent in NY, there have only 3 months in which he sported an OBP under .360. How many players can you make that claim about?

But if there's any truth to his reputation as a clubhouse distraction, I can definitely understand the concern from a Mets fan's perspective, with Reyes having a similar reputation to Cano as being susceptable to that sort of thing.
 
124Razor
      ID: 181051618
      Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 11:51 		Ignoring the fact that Kevin Brown was on steroids, it was actually not as bad as it seemed at the time. A big part of that is we dumped Brown's last two years on the Yankees, so essentially it was only a five year deal for us. It was disappointing because Brown was brought in to pitch us to the playoffs and be an ace when we got there, but we never made it during those five years. He pitched at a near Cy Young level for 3 1/2 of those 5 seasons, but those 1 1/2 seasons of injury and the fact that he was the highest paid player in the game tainted the perception of how bad he was. It probably would have been worse had we had him in his 6th and 7th seasons, but we traded him for Jeff Weaver, who was a league average innings eater.

You'll find very few pitchers deserving of 7 year contracts just because of the injury risk. I would go as high as six years for an elite guy like Santana or Pedro with the understanding that you might get an injury year in there somewhere. I'm of the mind that it's best to develop aces while going out and buying sluggers. Aces are so rare that the price for them is usually above what they are worth. It's better to buy #2 type starters, pay half the price and get the same number of innings and half a run more in ERA.
 
125blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 13:52 		Somewhere in there the Phillies got Ronny Paulino. A nothing move, but it'll be interesting to see what happens to Chris Coste, who was a forgotten man in the playoffs.
 
126beastiemiked
      ID: 5310301021
      Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 13:53 		I don't really see CC spending the entire contract with the Yankees. I predict a trade long before the end.

If he traded it would have to be to another big market team. The only way he gets traded is if he pulls a Manny.

 
127Mith
      ID: 2894309
      Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 14:51 		If he's traded it'll either be for another excessive contract or a case where the Yankees eat a good portion of his salary.

I'll stick by my last sentence in #94.
 
128Razor
      ID: 181051618
      Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 15:04 		Opt out clauses are only exercised if a player thinks he can get more money elsewhere. Who's going to pay him more than the Yankees? Maybe the Red Sox would tamper again and tell Sabathia to opt out so they can offer more money, but I doubt even they could afford it.
 
129Mith
      ID: 2894309
      Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 15:25 		2 years ago the benchmark for a 7 year deal to the top pitcher on the market was $18m per. This year the new benchmark is $23m per.

You think after 3 more offseasons this will still be the biggest contract for a starting pitcher? I don't.
 
130Seattle Zen
      ID: 49112418
      Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 15:47 		You think after 3 more offseasons this will still be the biggest contract for a starting pitcher? I don't.

Well, how many years did it take someone to top ARod's $252 million dollar contract? Oh, yeah, it hasn't been topped. Only one contract has topped the $25 million/year and that was for the man himself. He signed in 2001 and still no one has ever been paid $25 million/year other than him.

Take into consideration that he is either the best or second best player in baseball and he does not get hurt. I don't foresee any pitcher being able to make that claim in the next decade.

I foresee that CC's contract will be the highest dollar total for a pitcher for the next seven or eight years.
 
131Razor
      ID: 181051618
      Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 15:51 		Do you think that a 31 year old Sabathia could still demand as much as he could at 28? And the market does fluctuate up and down. In 2000, A-Rod, Jeter, Manny et al were getting gigantic contracts. By 2003-04, the top sluggers (Vlad, Tejada) were getting 1/2 of what those guys got.
 
132blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 16:18 		Are you comparing Barry Zito to CC Sabathia?
 
133Mith
      ID: 2894309
      Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 16:50 		Do you think that a 31 year old Sabathia could still demand as much as he could at 28?

If he continues to pitch at a highly competitive level, yes.

In 2000, A-Rod, Jeter, Manny et al were getting gigantic contracts. By 2003-04, the top sluggers (Vlad, Tejada) were getting 1/2 of what those guys got.

You're right in that markets do fluctuate but not to the xtentthat you suggest. What you offered is not exactly a fair comparison. Jeter is a different case from ARod, Manny and Vlad. He was the face of the Yankees and was compensated beyond his statistical production.

You failed to note that in 2004 Pujols got $14.3m to stay in St. Louis and surely could have gotten more if he'd tested the free agent market. And Vlad Guerrero missed 50 games the year before he was signed, bringing his value way down. Tejada, admittedly, is an outlier.

In any case, it doesn't mean that ARod would necessarily have gotten any less if he'd become a free agent in 2003 or 2004 instead of 2001. Consider that in 2002 Giambi got $17m per and Beltran got the same in 2005.

Further, whether you agree or not, I don't believe you'll be able to show a similar fluctuation in the market for top starting pitching talent.
 
134Khahan
      ID: 1065339
      Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 17:02 		CC's contract is ridiculous. Especially considering he is overweight, will never get it under control and will be broken down 1/2 way thru.

But, it will be the basis for Cole Hamels to make his demands in the coming years. Guess Philly can kiss him goodbye.
 
135Electroman
      ID: 47928246
      Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 17:18 		When does Halladay become a free agent?
 
136Mith
      ID: 148402816
      Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 19:14 		I just saw this from Seattle Zen:

I foresee that CC's contract will be the highest dollar total for a pitcher for the next seven or eight years.

You're out of your mind! I think the next ace up for free agency is Brandon Webb. He's on track to become a 31 year old free agent after the DBacks exercise their option in 2010.

My guess is that if he stays healthy and doesn't sign an extension, his next deal will be the new standard.
 
137Mith
      ID: 148402816
      Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 19:20 		...of course the precedents set by Hampton and Zito leave open the possibility that someone will break the bank on a lesser player first.
 
138Seattle Zen
      ID: 358591721
      Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 19:30 		I'm certain Brandon will sign for less than $161 million. The money won't be there. Baseball will bring in less revenue in 2009 and probably 2010.

And the Red Sox won't need him as they will be beating a Yankee team with their $250 million free agent arms nursing sore wings.
 
139PuNk42AE
      Donor
      ID: 036635522
      Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 19:48 		Non-Tenders start leaking out right now...
Chris Burke
Chuck James
Chris Capuano
Kevin Cash
Matt Belisle
Gary Majewski
Tim Redding
 
140JeffG
      ID: 47112621
      Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 22:30 		Yanks agressive rotation reconstruction lands them another "initial" guy to go with CC: AJ Burnett, 5 year, $82.5M. Solid pickup, I'd love if he can give us 220 IP like last season, but he's had some history with another set of initials: DL.
 
141blue hen
      ID: 501141222
      Fri, Dec 12, 2008, 23:04 		Those are fine initials. I share them with Mr. Burnett.

And there are some decent non-tender options there. The Phils are dead set on DeRosa these days, but why not Burke?

And Tim Redding would probably be a decent 5th starter on a lot of teams.
 
142Mith
      ID: 148402816
      Sat, Dec 13, 2008, 19:40 		Shameless self promotion.
 
143blue hen
      ID: 8115717
      Sun, Dec 14, 2008, 17:39 		Good stuff, MITH. However, I don't forsee another 14 year drought in the Yankee future. The most significant factor is not free agency but rather the taking on of ridiculous contracts. ARod, Sheffield, and Abreu are stars of the highest caliber and they were acquired for a song. Well, not exactly a song in ARod's case, but in that case they let the Rangers pay all the money.

Brian Cashman is smart. He's not going to make the mistakes of the 80s. By the way, Rickey Henderson was the biggest catalyst of those 80s teams, and you didn't mention him at all, especially not the one-sided trade that got rid of him. The Yankees acquire Bobby Abreu and not Jesse Barfield. Jason Giambi and not Jack Clark. Mike Mussina and not Tommy John. Gary Sheffield and not Steve Sax. This is a much smarter organization.
 
145Mith
      ID: 148402816
      Sun, Dec 14, 2008, 18:59 		Thanks Hen, and I don't forsee another long drought, either. And I think most people acknowledge these deals look very good in the short-term and of course a 2009 return to the playoffs is much more likely after having made them. But in your assessment I think you have it backwards in saying that it is the payroll that is their problem and not the reliance on talent developed outside of the organization.

The Yankees can afford the bloated contracts. The salaries they take on are annoying and even embarrassing (when they aren't winning, anyway) but in reality they have very little to do with the team's recent slide. Have we ever seen the Yankees not persue a player they coveted because he would break the payroll budget? The significant factor is the general disregard for the developmental system, especially the amateur draft, in favor established talent.

And I agree that the modern team makes smarter deals than the management of 20 years ago. But the comparison is irrelevant. In the big money era, their options are much better now. Teams never dropped players like Bobby Abreu in midseason salary dumps in the 1980s. And more importantly, most teams back then could afford to retain or sign top talent. In those days the Yankees bankroll didn't provide them anything like the advantage it affords them today.

I thought of discussing the Winfield and Henderson acquisitions as a continuance of the types of moves that brought Hunter, Jackson and Gossage. And while the two trades that sent those players away were both examples of the team's dysfunction in it's downfall, they weren't emblematic of the greater point, which is the disregard for young talent. In fact the team got younger in both of those deals, but that had nothing to do with why they were made. And after well over 2300 words I didn't see a need to draw it out any further with a long tangental aside.
 
146Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Sun, Dec 14, 2008, 19:41 		GREAT stuff MITH. As we have discussed before, I grew up in the same time period, with my first Yankee recollections being the 1977 World Series. I painfully watched in agony as our generation's Yankee hero, Don Mattingly, toiled with a mediocre team before succombing to retirement just before the team won the 1996 World Series. The pain of dealing with the Steve Kemps, Dave LaPoints and Andy Hawkins of the world was torturous.

Great write up. Send it somewhere. It should be published in a more mainstream setting, even if "only" online.
 
147blue hen
      ID: 8115717
      Sun, Dec 14, 2008, 20:30 		"Only." Et tu, Species?

Acquiring Henderson and Winfield were VERY good moves, and just like the Giambi and Sheffield (and Sabathia) deals. Getting top level talent during the peak years of their careers.

Don't forget the draft. The Yankees don't have to draft high to get impact talent. Look at Derek Jeter. And Hughes and Joba. Just because J. Brent Cox didn't pan out, doesn't mean the Yankees don't have an advantage no matter where they pick in the draft. And then they keep these guys forever.

I do see one interesting pair of acquisitions. The Mets got Carlos Beltran and the Yankees got Johnny Damon. At the time, both were hyped as the big name guy of their year. But the Yankees got the wrong guy. Honestly, if they'd gotten Beltran instead of Damon (in different years, obviously), they probably would have made the playoffs in 2008.
 
148Mith
      ID: 148402816
      Sun, Dec 14, 2008, 20:57 		Its very strange to see a non-Yankee fan defending their focus on free agents and trades for establised players in lieu of a robust farm system.

The Yankees don't have to draft high to get impact talent. Look at Derek Jeter.

I assume you mean they don't have to select high in the first round to get impact players? Even so, Jeter was taken #6 overall in 1992.

But the issues isn't that they don't pick high in the first round, it's signing type-a free agents means they regularly forego the first and sometimes 2nd rounds, all together. Hughes was taken with the 23rd overall pick in 2004. Joba was taken in the supplimental round of the 2006 draft. This year, the Yankees won't have any picks in the 1st round, supplimental round or 2nd round. At least 75 or so amateurs will be off the table before the Yankees make their first selection.

Have you read the Buster Olney column I linked? Serious eye-opener.

And yes some free agent signings are necessary and many work out terrifically. I'm not saying that top-flight free agents and trades for veteran players are always bad. The point is that the most successful model leaned heavily on the yield from a strong player development system and that in recent years the team has grossly neglected that part of the franchise as they have slipped further from the previous level of success.

Over the last 30 years, the correlation is pretty clear.
 
149Seattle Zen
      ID: 358591721
      Mon, Dec 15, 2008, 00:37 		I don't forsee another 14 year drought in the Yankee future.

and I don't forsee another long drought, either.

Well, I don't think it will be 14 years from today, but I don't foresee the Yanks winning another WS in the next six years, so I expect y'all will have suffered for at least 14 years.

The team that is taking shape is not very impressive to me. Sign Mark Texieria and I might change my mind.
 
150blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Mon, Dec 15, 2008, 11:20 		With Jeter, I meant that he was the #1 guy available, but no one wanted to pay him. The Yankees never let that stand in their way. Hughes and Joba as well. But you're right - losing draft picks sucks. They did lose some guys this year - don't they get any picks for that?
 
151blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Mon, Dec 15, 2008, 11:23 		Phillies sign Chan Ho Park to a deal, and expect him to start. It's been a bad week in Philly. And I guess this means J.A. Happ will be in the DeRosa deal. Or maybe it means Moyer is out, so that could be good.

The guy I really wanted was Randy Johnson, but I guess that's just too much to ask for.
 
152Mith
      ID: 2894309
      Mon, Dec 15, 2008, 12:11 		don't they get any picks for that?

Players must be offered and decline arbitration before they sign elsewhere for their their former clubs to be compensated in the draft. And the Yankees inexplicably didn't offer arbitration to type-A free agent Bobby Abreu. They also didn't offer arbitration to type-A FA Andy Pettitte or to type-B FA Ivan Rodriguez but those choices are a bit more understandable.
 
153blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Mon, Dec 15, 2008, 14:29 		Oh yeah, I remember that. I would think Abreu would have been a no brainer. And if not, why didn't the Phillies sign him instead of Ibanez?
 
154Perm Dude
      ID: 2611451513
      Mon, Dec 15, 2008, 14:45 		Or maybe it means Moyer is out, so that could be good.

Moyer's probably on his last legs, but to hope that Park is an improvement is really a stretch. At last Moyer won 16 games with an ERA under 3.75, and has provided veteran leadership. Park hasn't started in 2 years (and he's no spring chicken himself, at 35), and was 7-7 last time he was. Here's his ERA the last 8 season/teams: 5.75, 7.58, 5.46, 5.74, 5.66, 5.91, 4.81, 15.75, 3.40.

There are lots of guys who would be an improvement over Moyer (who is an innings eater, and can be counted on for between 12-16 wins and an ERA of about 4.50). But Park isn't one of them.
 
155J
      Leader
      ID: 049346417
      Mon, Dec 15, 2008, 14:59 		According to Howard Eskin of WIP 610 in Philadelphia, the Phillies re-signed Jamie Moyer to a two-year deal.
 
156blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Mon, Dec 15, 2008, 15:47 		Yep, I just got the alert. Blech. One of my Phillies buddies really wanted Lowe, but I personally wanted Randy Johnson (or at least Randy Wolf).

I'm really bumming about this Ibanez thing. Today there's a story about how much Bonds wants to play. Until now, the Phillies didn't need a leftfielder. But wouldn't that be sweet?
 
157philflyboy
      ID: 49148415
      Mon, Dec 15, 2008, 20:22 		J how are you listening to WIP in Atlanta?
 
158J
      Leader
      ID: 049346417
      Mon, Dec 15, 2008, 20:37 		I just copy/pasted that from another site
 
159J
      Leader
      ID: 049346417
      Tue, Dec 16, 2008, 09:40 		Apparently Rafael Furcal is signing a 3yr deal to go back to the Braves.

Makes me wonder if they're back in the Peavy chase?
 
160blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Wed, Dec 17, 2008, 10:58 		Cubs signed Joey Gathright - no impact.

The Yankees lost a GM sponsorship deal, so maybe they won't get Manny after all.
 
161blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Wed, Dec 17, 2008, 12:37 		This nifty bit from ESPN Rumor Central:

Citing a source familiar with the Yankees' thinking, the newspaper reported that general manager Brian Cashman has been lukewarm to the idea of signing Ramirez, but the rest of the front office - most notably Hal and Hank Steinbrenner - believes he is precisely what the Yankees need to bolster a lineup that underachieved in 2008.

Let's think rationally about this. The Steinbrenners want Manny, and Cashman doesn't. Who do you trust?

The next line is even better:

One baseball official told the Daily News that the Yankees' interest in Ramirez is more than "cursory," that they see the slugger as the perfect complement in their lineup to Alex Rodriguez.

Right, and I bet they want to sign top shelf free agents CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett to front their rotation.

Oh, wait a minute...
 
162Khahan
      ID: 1065339
      Wed, Dec 17, 2008, 16:08 		This year at Citizen's Bank park I'll be looking for the new fan club. For a while we had the Wolf Pack. Then there was Howard's Homers. This year I'll be looking for "Chan's Ho Park." Nice little section in the upper levels of the stadium.

Hey, you Phillie fans have got to find SOME reason to want Park on this team.
 
163Razor
      ID: 181051618
      Wed, Dec 17, 2008, 21:45 		We'll see what kind of impact Boras has on Ramirez. If Ramirez has his way, he'll stay on the West Coast. He wanted out of Boston because he hated the pressure cooker atmosphere. If Boras has his way, Ramirez will go to the highest bidder, which will either be the Yankees or the Dodgers if they somehow get suckered into playing Boras' games.
 
164Mith
      ID: 2894309
      Thu, Dec 18, 2008, 13:15 		Watching the Sabathia/Burnett introduction presser now, CC has definitely lost some weight since the playoffs. I'm still not on board with this signing but that's a good sign.
 
165blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Thu, Dec 18, 2008, 14:55 		Tigers sign Matt Treanor. Edwin Jackson's teammate now.
 
166Slizz
      ID: 411441421
      Fri, Dec 19, 2008, 19:54 		Love the Edwin Jackson / Matt Joyce trade.

The Rays finally have a decent outfielder to pair up with Crawford/Upton. It was like a circus watching Johnny Gomes/Gabe Gross platoon out there and it would give them a significant upgrade defensively.

Also, Joyce will produce great split stats and I can envision a Xavier Nady/Ryan Church type impact on a fast Rays squad. Example: He has a career .721 OPS vs LHP in the minors. While you can expect that to drop down slightly when he plays full time, he would still be an upgrade over what the Rays had there last season.

As for Edwin Jackson, goodbye & good luck in Detroit. We'll see if they can get you to live up to your promise...

 
167blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Mon, Dec 22, 2008, 18:44 		A few minor deals...

- Astros sign Aaron Boone
- Brewers sign Trot Nixon and Chris Duffy (that speedster from the Pirates a couple years back)
- Angels sign Juan Rivera
- Royals sign Oscar Villareal and a couple other guys
 
168Mith
      ID: 148402816
      Tue, Dec 23, 2008, 16:08 		Yanks said to have signed Teixeira
 
169walk
      ID: 181472714
      Tue, Dec 23, 2008, 17:12 		Whoo-hoo! I love it, love it, love it! If there was ever was a need that needed to be filled, it was 1B on this team. We got a stud, both hitting and fielding, a patient hitter, a stable personality, right in his prime, a switch hitter. I cannot say enough about the NYY needed to make this move.

NYT is indicating that the NYY may now trade Hideki Matsui or Nick Swisher to reduce the huuuuuge payroll (I know, insert joke here), but their goal was to come under the $209M payroll of 2008, and to do that, they'd have to trade someone. Fine. The key is to have a strong 1B; Swisher was not the answer (although I'd love him to stay on the team as a roving IF/OF); moving Damon was not the answer.

The NYY had holes, they filled those holes with the luxury of their market. Soon we will find out the NYY 4 million attendance and TV revenues is all based on some elaborate Ponzi scheme and humpty dumpty will all come tumbling down, but until then, I laud the team for making the talen moves that needed to be made to fill the gaping holes they had to fill.
 
170walk
      ID: 181472714
      Tue, Dec 23, 2008, 17:20 		ESNPN on NYY and Teixeira

ESPN calculates that the NYY actually do meet their goal of coming in under the 2008 payroll even with Teixeira, AJ and CC ... cos they lost Abreu, Giambi, and Mussina. They may even resign Pettitte (although he aint worth what he made last year).

I also totally forgot we have Xavier Nady, another strong bat in the OF. With Posada back, and Tex, and I expect a resurgent Robinson Cano, this line-up is going to be just as strong as their newfound starting pitching staff in 2009.
 
171Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Tue, Dec 23, 2008, 19:32 		Anyone think that the Yankees won't go for the balls now and sign Manny?
 
172Mith
      ID: 148402816
      Tue, Dec 23, 2008, 20:24 		Sweet Lord I hope not. The report last week was that both Steinbros were on board for manny but Cash wasn't. But the source cited in that report was hokey-sounding. That rumor had the feel of a plant to me. the whole thing was weird? As far as media was concerned, the Yankees had had exactly zero contact with Teixeira as recently as Friday. There were no reports of the yankee being even vaguly interested in him and yet Ramirez was supposedly in their sights. sWhy in the world would the Yankees be interested in Manny ahead of Teixeira?

Teixeira is a far better fit for the Yankees than Manny Ramirez for numerous reasons, including that they need a 1b more than a LF, that they just pushed Abreu out the door and are looking for a way to send Melky with him because of their non-chalant attitudes, that he almost certainly won't coexist well with Girardi, that the team is alreadly loaded with over the hill left-fielders in decline, that in the next few years and maybe longer, you won't be able to do any better than Teixeira to shore up 1B long term, that the Red Sox were openly courting him and can't counter this by signing Manny.

So there is just no way I'll believe that the Yankees weren't set on Teixeira all along and were ever seriously considering Manny as anything other than a backup plan. Whatever the case, there was obviously an awful lot going on behind the scenes, which they managed to completely black the media out of.

Here's my reaction.
 
173Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Tue, Dec 23, 2008, 20:56 		Excellent column BTW.

(This is not a wish list that they will sign Manny. I would much rather see them spend that money on their bullpen.)

I think the Yankees will make a serious run at Manny because of some of the things you stated in your column. You alluded to Jeter, Posada, and A-Rod aging. Rivera is approaching 40 at light speed.

With Tex, CC, and AJ, the Yankees have a serious shot at the postseason and are positioned for deep postseason runs for the next three years (assuming Rivera, Posada, and Jeter encounter serious downturns after that three year period). They ought to make the wild card at the minimum and could very well win the division.

Manny's postseason stats are legendary while A-Rod's has a lowly .279 BA (although in his defense he bats .315 in LCS play). By virtue of "Manny being Manny" in the playoffs he would take pressure off of A-Rod. I would think Manny would bat behind A-Rod so he sees better pitches and we could see a surge in his playoff stats.

The whole "stick it to the Red Sox" is nice theater, but the Steinbros probably see a chance to virtually clinch at least one World Series appearance with Ramirez while Cashman envisions the clubhouse headaches.

Isn't it possible that a situation similar to Dennis Rodman on the Bulls could occur with Manny on the Yanks? He would be surrounded by A-Rod, Jeter, Rivera, and Posada and really wouldn't be required to behave or produce on a massive scale until the playoffs. The Bulls won three titles with Rodman who a lot of people thought would destroy that team and turn Phil Jackson into an old man. Rodman had plenty of moments, but they still won a lot of games.
 
174Mith
      ID: 148402816
      Tue, Dec 23, 2008, 21:52 		Thanks. I don't see them signing Manny but who knows.
 
175Perm Dude
      ID: 4211462314
      Tue, Dec 23, 2008, 22:46 		Aren't the Yankees committed to over $450 million with the last three signings? And they just got a tax bill for $24 million for being over the luxury tax limit?

With the average fans facing foreclosures and layoffs while the Yankees have a new workplace paid for by taxpayers with the highest salary in baseball, it is hard to see how this gets them any new fans.

 
176Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Tue, Dec 23, 2008, 22:51 		PD: The Yankees payroll is down so far compared to 2008.
 
177Perm Dude
      ID: 4211462314
      Tue, Dec 23, 2008, 22:58 		Sure, only because we haven't started the season yet so they are still signing up guys. This is like saying a week ago that I'd spent less on Christmas than I did for Christmas 2007.

There's no way that their total payroll will be down on Opening Day from Opening Day 2008.
 
178Mith
      ID: 07232412
      Wed, Dec 24, 2008, 08:59 		Care to put a wager on that, PD? They're still a solid $14-15m short of the 2009 opening day payroll. It doesn't look like they're after any bulpen help so aside possibly from one or two very minor signings, one more starting pitcher is probably the most they'll add, and even that isn't a given. The official offer to Pettitte is $10m and I don't know how much more than that Lowe or Sheets or Perez would command. According to Buster Olney, the market for 2nd tier free agents is dropping pretty fast.
 
179blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Wed, Dec 24, 2008, 10:22 		The Yankees are after ANOTHER starting pitcher? Damn, what if Texas had signed CC, Burnett, and Lowe?

Anyway, I agree with Mith - I don't think the payroll will match last year. They definitely dropped a lot and were in a position to spend this year. However, I think people are overlooking the value of the guys from last year when they talk about the guys from this year. Sure, they added Sabathia, Burnett, Teixeira, and Swisher, but they lost Pettitte (potentially), Mussina, Giambi, and Abreu. Sure, the new guys are better (at least the pitchers), but the marginal value isn't so high. It's like the Red Sox replacing Manny with Jason Bay - it's not THAT big of a step down.
 
180Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Wed, Dec 24, 2008, 10:38 		It doesn't look like they're after any bulpen help

That is sadly very accurate. This will most likely be their downfall in the postseason and over the course of the regular season will determine whether they win the division or make the wild card.

Who do the Yankees have in the farm system to trade at the deadline for bullpen help? Who would really want someone from the Yanks system (when it is probable that every other contender will have a better farm system to choose from) unless if they just needed to unload a contract?

I don't know what significant relievers are out there, but if I had to choose between Manny and two or three upper or second tier relief pitchers, get me the relievers.

what if Texas had signed CC, Burnett, and Lowe?

Then that damn evil empire known as the Texas Rangers would be "buying a championship". ;)
 
181blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Wed, Dec 24, 2008, 10:55 		Umm, the Yankees have a great farm system. Were you perhaps thinking of a different team?
 
182Mith
      ID: 07232412
      Wed, Dec 24, 2008, 11:06 		#179
I think it reasonable to expect more production from Posada and Matsui than we saw in 2008.

#180
Marte, Bruney and Britton are all pretty solid. And The Yankees have much more pitching in the farm than you realize. Cashman did a lot to boost the minor league pitching talent over the previous 3 years and while Hughes, Kennedy and Joba were disapointments in their debuts, they are just the first crop. Humberto Sanchez, Phil Coke and Alfredo Aceves debuted last year. J Brent Cox and Mark Melancon are probably next and there are more after them.

Middle-relief and setup pitchers probably have the worst free-agent success rate of any position, at least for the Yankees, anyway. Consider all of the RPs the Yankees have signed and traded for over the Years who were a disappointment - Hawkins, Farnsworth, Myers, Vizcaino, Villone, Dotel, Felix Rodriguez, Sturtze, Quantril, Heredia, Karstens. I only went back 5 years to get all those names and every last one of them was a disappointment. Even Tom Gordon wore down at the end of every year.
 
183Perm Dude
      ID: 281125249
      Wed, Dec 24, 2008, 11:11 		Including signing bonuses, the Yankees are already over last year's payroll. And I've have to count, but I don't belive they have signed up everyone for the 40 man squad yet.
 
184Great One
      ID: 151126410
      Wed, Dec 24, 2008, 11:12 		MITH, do you feel that had anything to do with Torre and his rep for killing middle relief guys?
 
185Mith
      ID: 07232412
      Wed, Dec 24, 2008, 11:44 		#183
I recall that you scolded me two years ago for discussing the overall Red Sox expenditure on talent (as opposed to simple payroll figures) and including the money paid to negotiate with Dice-K.

Anyway, Sabathia gets a $9m bonus, Teix gets $5m and ARod gets $1m of his bonus this year, adding $15m to the total. But ARod got $2m of his bonus last year and Jeter got the final $1m installment of his bonus last year. So even if you insist on including bonuses, they are actually still under. Perhaps next you'll argue that for the purposes of this discussion 2009 bonuses should count but not 2008 ones?


#184
You mean the revolving door of disappointing relief pitchers? To an extent. He definitely overworked Gordon and Proctor. But other guys like Farnsworth, Hawkins, Heredia and Rodriguez were just unreliable. Myers was serviceable as a middle relief guy but if you recall he failed at the job they brought him in to do, which was to get tough lefties out.
 
186Mith
      ID: 07232412
      Wed, Dec 24, 2008, 11:45 		Also, not sure why I put Karstens in there. He was a Yankee farm product.
 
187Perm Dude
      ID: 281125249
      Wed, Dec 24, 2008, 12:51 		Perhaps next you'll argue ...

My argument is that they will be over in the end, mostly because they aren't done shopping. Are you arguing that the Yankees are done, even before winter meetings?

Also, I believe that (correct me here) they still have arbitration with Wang, Cabrera, and Bruney (maybe one more?).

Or maybe you are hoping some Yankees will take pay cuts next year, seeing as they didn't make the playoffs?

:)


Wait--Wang just signed for $5 million. It wasn't in my total. Was it in yours? Looks like a million dollar raise.
 
188R9
      ID: 360311911
      Wed, Dec 24, 2008, 12:59 		I'll take the Over on last year's payroll. Who wants to gambool? ;)
 
189Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Wed, Dec 24, 2008, 13:29 		Re: Yankee bullpen

Don't forget the emergence of Edwar Ramirez (3.90 ERA, but 1.23 WHIP, .215 BAA, 63k in 55.1 IP), up and coming David Robertson (despite poor stats in his 25-game stint in NY, posted a gaudy 1.68 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, .151 BAA and 12.91 K/9 rate in the minors) and other guys on the farm like Kevin Whalen.
 
190J
      Leader
      ID: 049346417
      Wed, Dec 24, 2008, 14:10 		Enough Yankee talk!!!!

"The Mets appear to be closing in on a deal for free-agent pitcher Derek Lowe," reports the Boston Globe.

According to the report, 'The deal is believed to be four years in length, or three years with a vesting option,' and worth roughly $14-16 million per season.


I've gotta say...I don't love this. To me, Lowe is 35 years old...I would MUCH rather keep Oliver Perez, who is 27, for the same contract. I even think Olly can be had cheaper than $16mil a season. At least Olly can still possibly get better, Lowe will only get worse at this point in his career
 
191Mith
      ID: 07232412
      Wed, Dec 24, 2008, 15:13 		The winter meetings finished 2 weeks ago. They avoided arbitration with Wang. He signed a 1 year deal for $5m. There are several players still awaiting arbitration. Of them, Bruney ($725k) is the only one that made more than $450k last year. Some, like Joba Chamberlain, might get modest raises but not more than maybe $200k, I don't think.


I'd take Perez of Lowe, too.
 
192bh@ Minnesota
      ID: 5910242916
      Fri, Dec 26, 2008, 20:01 		I'd also take Olly
 
193blue hen
      ID: 8115717
      Sat, Dec 27, 2008, 20:31 		Reds sign Willy Taveras. In 2007, he kept the OBP up and was pretty valuable. Last year, not so much. But he does bring speed and athleticism and excellent CF defense. Not the worst move in the world, and will probably help the Cincy pitchers like Harang, Volquez, Arroyo, et al.
 
194blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Mon, Jan 05, 2009, 15:45 		Rays get Pat Burrell. 2 years, 16 million.

I am going purchase www.firepatgillick.com
 
195J
      Leader
      ID: 049346417
      Mon, Jan 05, 2009, 17:30 		Milton Bradley 3yrs, 30mil from the Cubs
 
196Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Mon, Jan 05, 2009, 18:23 		Rays get Pat Burrell. 2 years, 16 million.

I am going purchase www.firepatgillick.com

Yeah, whassup with that?

Great, cheap signing by the Rays.

Does Gillick maybe have an Abreu return under his belt?!?
 
197Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Mon, Jan 05, 2009, 18:24 		Wait. Isn't Ruben Amaro Jr. now the Phillies GM?
 
198Great One
      ID: 151126410
      Tue, Jan 06, 2009, 10:34 		The Mets would be wise to throw a few dollars at Abreu.
 
199blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Tue, Jan 06, 2009, 10:46 		True. Amaro made this decision. But Gillick picked Amaro as his successor, and then retired so we never had a chance to fire him. www.firerubenamarojr.com is already taken, for some reason.

Is Ibanez better than Milton Bradley? To me, they're about the same, and Burrell is better than either one. Am I missing something?

And I'd LOVE Abreu, but my guess is Oakland gets both Abreu and Giambi.
 
200blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Tue, Jan 06, 2009, 13:59 		Blue Jays not picked to win AL East. At least the O's and Rays got one state each.
 
201ChicagoTRS
      ID: 59052613
      Tue, Jan 06, 2009, 14:58 		When playing and not injured I would take Bradley over Ibanez or Burrell every time...

Better slugging...better OB%...the obvious problem is he is oft injured and has some anger issues.
 
202J
      Leader
      ID: 049346417
      Tue, Jan 06, 2009, 16:55 		Is Ibanez better than Milton Bradley? To me, they're about the same, and Burrell is better than either one. Am I missing something?

Seriously? Do we have to answer that? Ok, I will...

Last 3 seasons:
Burrell 456 games, .254AVG, 92HR, 231R, 278RBI
Ibanez 470 games, .291AVG, 77HR, 268R, 338RBI (on a crap team)
Bradley 283 games, .302AVG, 49HR, 168R, 166RBI

When healthy, I'd take Bradley, then Ibanez, then I don't think I'd even want Burrell
 
203wiggs
      Sustainer
      ID: 04991311
      Tue, Jan 06, 2009, 17:03 		Pettite rejects Yankees Offer
 
204blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Tue, Jan 06, 2009, 17:19 		J, you're one of the smartest people I know.

Can you repost that chart with important stats instead of those stats? It seems like you made your decision based on batting average.
 
205blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Tue, Jan 06, 2009, 17:20 		I'd take Pettitte but I doubt the Phils offer more than 10 mil.
 
206Seattle Zen
      ID: 58023616
      Tue, Jan 06, 2009, 17:24 		Can you repost that chart with important stats instead of those stats?

No, he listed the most important stat of all:

Ibanez 470 games
Burrell 456 games
Bradley 283 games

Fine China is beautiful, expensive, and very fragile.
 
207J
      Leader
      ID: 049346417
      Tue, Jan 06, 2009, 17:43 		sorry, at work, don't have access to everything. I wish I could've listed strikeouts!!! Besides a wide margin in average, Ibanez also has plenty more Runs and RBI than Burrell.
If you project out Bradley's numbers to 450 games, he'd have 78HR, 267Runs, 264RBI.

So, I think it sounds like you're the one basing your argument on one stat...homers???

I'm also basing my conclusion somewhat on the facts that he went to college at Miami and has a reputation of being a Met killer.
 
208blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Tue, Jan 06, 2009, 18:11 		If you project out your height, it's 5'9. But you really have to project.

How about on-base percentage? Have you ever heard of that stat? And believe it or not, Burrell actually beats Ibanez in many defensive metrics.
 
209Seattle Zen
      ID: 32035622
      Tue, Jan 06, 2009, 23:40 		Burrell actually beats Ibanez in many defensive metrics.

Well, that's like saying that the Gaza Strip actually beats Somalia in Gross Domestic Product per citizen.

Pat Burrell, the Gaza Strip of outfield defense!

link
 
210ChicagoTRS
      ID: 344311322
      Wed, Jan 07, 2009, 00:19 		3 yr averages:

Bradley: age 30, 94 games, .406 OBP, .512 SLG
Burrell: age 32, 152 games, .382 OBP, .496 SLG
Ibanez: age 36, 156 games, .356 OBP, .488 SLG
Abreu: age 34, 156 games, .387 OBP, .457 SLG
Dunn: age 29, 156 games, .378 OBP, .514 SLG

I hate the Bradley signing by the Cubs. He does have the best numbers when he actually plays but it seems you can pretty much take it to the bank he will at least miss a third of the season. He is a switch hitter which is nice...but the problem is he is better from the right side of the plate than the left side which sort of defeats the purpose of what the Cubs were after...left handed protection in the order. Not to mention his anger issues...I am sure our other problem child Zambrano is going to get along with him great...uggh. The signing smacks of desperation.

 
211Perm Dude
      ID: 3048613
      Wed, Jan 07, 2009, 01:03 		Indians make low-risk, high-reward signing of Pavano.
 
212blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Thu, Jan 08, 2009, 10:23 		I still haven't heard a decent case for Ibanez over Burrell. Anyone?
 
213blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Thu, Jan 08, 2009, 10:24 		And how exactly is Pavano "high reward"?
 
214Boxman
      ID: 337352111
      Thu, Jan 08, 2009, 10:56 		The Bradley signing is so Cub-like. WGN TV reported it earlier this week and talked about how the Cubs finally got the left handed bat they were looking for.

All the highlights they showed had Bradley batting right handed.
 
215J
      Leader
      ID: 049346417
      Thu, Jan 08, 2009, 11:35 		Smoltz & Baldelli (likely) to the Red Sox

Trevor Hoffman signs with the Brewers
 
216Nerfherders
      ID: 347242717
      Thu, Jan 08, 2009, 11:54 		And the Braves' Worst Offseason in History continues.
 
217blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Thu, Jan 08, 2009, 13:33 		Yeah I wanted Hoffman. We have to replace JC Romero somehow.

Baldelli and Smoltz is a coup for the Red Sox. Go figure.
 
218Perm Dude
      ID: 210989
      Thu, Jan 08, 2009, 13:58 		Pavano: If he stays healthy, for $1.5 mill, the Tribe got a 3rd or 4th starter who won't be the fall-off pitcher they've been suffering through. He has the potential to win 10-12 games if he stays on the mound.
 
219Great One
      ID: 151126410
      Thu, Jan 08, 2009, 14:02 		sure were a lot of IF's in that sentence, thats for sure... but I agree low risk, high reward for Pavano
 
220Mith
      ID: 2894309
      Thu, Jan 08, 2009, 14:09 		Godspeed.
 
221J
      Leader
      ID: 049346417
      Fri, Jan 09, 2009, 14:16 		According to this link the third year of Milton Bradley's contract becomes a club option if he has health issues in 2009.
 
222J
      Leader
      ID: 049346417
      Tue, Jan 13, 2009, 13:52 		Braves sign Derek Lowe...4yrs, $60mil. Seems a bit much!
 
223blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Tue, Jan 13, 2009, 17:03 		Nice! Scratch them off from contention.
 
224Razor
      ID: 181051618
      Tue, Jan 13, 2009, 17:11 		Lowe is a bona fide #2. It all depends how he holds up in his late 30's, but over the past 3 or 4 years, he has been one of the top 15 pitchers in the game. That should command $15 mil a year in this market.
 
225blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Tue, Jan 13, 2009, 17:37 		Oh I know. But four years? Honestly, in the playoffs Lowe was the one guy who scared me. But I can't imagine he'll keep that up.
 
226C1-NRB
      ID: 2911103011
      Tue, Jan 13, 2009, 17:55 		I still haven't heard a decent case for Ibanez over Burrell. Anyone?

I'm late chiming in on this but I'll give it a shot.

Run production.

Taking J's three season scenario from post 202 and reiterated in post 207 but not broken down, Ibanez produced (R+RBI) 606 runs vs. Burrell's 509 and Ibanez did it "on a crap team" with only Ichiro (of any significance) hitting in front of him.

Divided out per game, Ibanez produced 1.29 R/game while Burrell produced 1.11 Not a statistically significant difference on first glance, but it adds up to 29 runs over the course of 162 games.

Baseball can't start soon enough!
 
227blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Thu, Jan 15, 2009, 17:07 		"Only" Ichiro? Runs produced is a terrible metric. It relies on opportunities. Do you have stats for RBIs per man on base ahead of him? What are the year-by-year OPS numbers for each guy?
 
228filthy
      ID: 388531216
      Mon, Jan 19, 2009, 05:53 		"Only Ichiro?" was my initial thought as well.

I think that Ibanez is leaving a situation that was perfect for him. He generally had Ichiro causing trouble on the bases and getting into scoring position for him while the 2 hitter would often be giving Ichiro enough time to move up but not hitting enough to be driving him in. Ibanez got a decent amount of RBI through sac flies and ground outs last year. Out of 87 non homer RBI, 43 of them were Ichiro.

I also think Ibanez has moved into another pretty solid situation in Philly. Whether it's Ichiro aided or not, he crushes with runners on, and should continue that trend with Rollins playing the Ichiro role. The only way Ibanez is a letdown is if the Phils bat him fifth. Ryan Howard has a tendency to clear some bases and I don't think Ibanez can come close to the 20 solo homers that Burrell hit in 2008.

Ibanez will probably bat third till Utley returns with Victorino moving out of the heart of the lineup and Ibanez sticking in the 2 or 3 spot once Utley does return. Ibanez should spend the full season sandwiched in the lineup by MVP candidates, which will lead to MVP numbers of his own.

A lot could depend on Ryan Howard as well. If the downgrade in protection affects Howard negatively, then Ibanez could be forced into batting fifth. Someone else would get the credit and the gravy stats at the top of the lineup. Ibanez would provide solid protection but be seen as a disappointment because he would put up good, not great, numbers.

Overall, I think that Werth will provide passable protection for Howard, and Ibanez will be able to put up some big numbers batting 2nd or 3rd. Howard will be pitched around with bases open, might even improve his plate discipline, and will still be a beast. Pretty even swap, slight edge to Ibanez in my mind.

Phillies offense will still frighten pitchers regularly.
 
229J
      Leader
      ID: 049346417
      Mon, Jan 19, 2009, 10:38 		Why would Ibanez' homers go DOWN??? Seattle is a huge park, the Phils play in a tiny park!
 
230blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Tue, Feb 10, 2009, 17:03 		Blue Jays acquire Matt Bush. Yes, that Matt Bush.
 
231J
      Leader
      ID: 049346417
      Tue, Feb 10, 2009, 17:08 		Dave Bush?
 
232blue hen
      ID: 8115717
      Wed, Feb 11, 2009, 00:45 		Matt Bush, the #1 overall pick in 2004.
 
233Great One
      ID: 31112109
      Wed, Feb 11, 2009, 15:23 		Abreu to the Angels for 5 million plus incentives.

How could the Mets with a gaping hole in their OF corner spots not make at least that offer? I can understand they didn't want to ante up to get Manny, but Abreu is a pretty darn good player and even better at that price.

 
234Great One
      ID: 31112109
      Wed, Feb 11, 2009, 15:32 		Adam Dunn to the Nationals?!!Can I cut and paste my reaction from above?
 
235Nerfherders
      ID: 347242717
      Wed, Feb 11, 2009, 16:03 		And I will cut and paste and replace 'Mets' with 'Braves'.
 
236Khahan
      ID: 1065339
      Wed, Feb 11, 2009, 16:35 		Holy crap. $5 mil for Abreu for 1 year? What a steal. My jaw dropped. The article on espn says it is not official yet, but might as well be.
 
237wiggs
      ID: 0139914
      Wed, Feb 11, 2009, 19:56 		If he would sign for 5 million the yanks should have resigned him.
 
238blue hen
      ID: 8115717
      Wed, Feb 11, 2009, 23:57 		Woe is Ibanez. At least flags fly forever.
 
239PuNk42AE
      Donor
      ID: 036635522
      Thu, Feb 12, 2009, 00:07 		Abreu is a shell of himself at this point.
 
240Great One
      ID: 31112109
      Thu, Feb 12, 2009, 15:54 		Yeah, I agree. I mean this guy is completely done, look at these awful stats last year! I expect MUCH more from a 5 million dollar player.

.296 AVG
.371 OBP
20 HR's
22 SB's
39 Doubles
100 RBI
100 Runs

 
241wiggs
      ID: 0139914
      Thu, Feb 12, 2009, 16:08 		GO- I cant agree with you more- I think Abreu is still pretty solid- I mean compare his numbers to a guy like

Mike Cameron- for 7 million- I take abreu any day

 
242blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Thu, Feb 12, 2009, 18:15 		And he's two years younger than Ibanez.
 
243steve houpt
      ID: 451161019
      Thu, Feb 12, 2009, 18:34 		Just comparing Ibanez and Burrel, Burrel's OBP and SLG is higher than Ibanez the last three years.

OBP .385 > .354
SLG .504 > 492
OPS .889 > 846

Using a 2002 'Runs Created' formula's - just an old spreadsheet that it was available from - should be 'relatively close' for rotoguru work]:

Runs Created - use 2002 version

ONE RUN CREATED per every [xx] At Bats.

Burrel: 1 RC per 6.23 AB's
Ibanez: 1 RC per 6.66 AB's

Runs created per 486 outs [i.e. = 27 outs per game = 9 Games played = 486 outs equal 162 games]

Burrel: 123 RC per 486 outs
Ibanez: 109 RC per 486 outs


The outs are:
AB - H
+ CS
+ SH
+ SF
+ GIDP

On a 500 team with a 4.5 to 4.5 RS to RA ratio, 14 runs created in a season 'might' make a +1.44 game difference. On a 550 team with a 5.0 to 4.5 ratio RS to RA, maybe only a +1.28 game difference using Bill James RS^1.88 / (RS + RA)^1.88 ratio.

Such a small difference, you'd have to look at other 'differences'.

Fielding.
-- Ibanez --- .985 in LF with 1642 total chances. 60 Assists. 753 Games Started as Left Fielder.
-- Burrel --- .976 in LF with 1975 total chances. 86 Assists. 984 Games Started as Left Fielder.
Slight advantage Ibanez IMHO.


Age.
Ibanez will be 37 on June 2nd.
Burrel just turned 32 last October.
Advantage Burrel long run, short term 37 is not old. No effect year 2009. And no signs of Ibanez slowing down. 162 games last year [153 in the field].

Not much difference IMHO either way for baseball year 2009. Very small adv Burrel - off, small adv Ibanez defense. Maybe advantage both players, and Tampa and Philly, just being on new teams - some times pumps you up - want to impress. Would not be suprised if both players have 'better' years.

Time willl tell.
 
244blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Fri, Feb 13, 2009, 10:08 		I'll admit that 2009 Ibanez might be about the same as 2009 Burrell, although I'd put my money on Burrell. 37 is actually old. No offense to our 37 year olds, but there's a big difference between those two ages.

I have some issues with your numbers. Burrell created those runs in Philly, so he's actually worse than that. I'll give you that.

And I don't like your defensive metrics. I'd say Ibanez is worse. Do you have zone rating or some other metric?

Point is that Burrell is better and Ibanez got more years for more money. And in my eyes, Burrell is the worst of the other three.
 
245barilko6
      ID: 4415138
      Fri, Feb 13, 2009, 10:16 		Give me Bobby Abreu over both those guys...unless...he is a cancer in the clubhouse. I mean there has to be some reason why he got such a little contract.
 
246ChicagoTRS
      ID: 4110481415
      Fri, Feb 13, 2009, 10:43 		with drugs hopefully being taken out of the game...35 is the new 40...I expect we will start seeing more historically accurate player declines with age.
 
247steve houpt
      ID: 451161019
      Fri, Feb 13, 2009, 23:38 		blue hen - even adjusting half the games using these two sites rating MLB parks:

You get:

Burrel RC 120
Ibanez RC 113

MLB.com - fantasy, park effects - 3 years


ESPN - MLB park Factors

Numbers and stats are meant to play with. You can do lots with them - want fielding stats on range, I'm sure you can get them - me - this was more than enough fun on really 'nothing' anyway. Was just curious.
 
248Seattle Zen
      Leader
      ID: 055343019
      Sun, Oct 17, 2010, 01:12 		Burrell actually beats Ibanez in many defensive metrics.

Well, that's like saying that the Gaza Strip actually beats Somalia in Gross Domestic Product per citizen.

Pat Burrell, the Gaza Strip of outfield defense!

Somalia dropped the Gaza Strip shot to left tonight. Nice job, Mogadishu!

Don't think Brandon Webb got $160 million.
 
249Seattle Zen
      ID: 3310162612
      Thu, Feb 07, 2013, 18:54 		I was more than half way there with my call in post 130. Just over fours years after CC signed his $161 million contract...

King Felix stays with the M's for 7 years, $175 million.