|
| Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Wed, Mar 15, 2017, 13:05
RIBC managers: Please post your rationales in this thread. Rationales are due on a two round lag (i.e., when you make you 3rd round pick, your 1st round rationale is due). You can post any rationale sooner than that if you wish.
Do not worry about placeholders or keeping things in the proper sequence. This is just a place to collect rationales, which I will then transfer over to the formal rationale thread in the proper sequence. This approach has worked well for the past several seasons, and I now have a somewhat automated method for making those transfers.
Remember that you should refrain from mentioning undrafted players. If you feel that your rationale requires that, then hold it back until the player has been drafted - unless the player mentioned is clearly undraftable this year.
When posting your first rationale, please also comment on your choice of draft sequence. |
| | | 1 | Seattle Zen
ID: 1610533022
Thu, Mar 16, 2017, 00:10
|
1.01.1 Mike Trout, OF
The years in which I have had the first or second pick have been my best years in RIBC and when given the opportunity to draft Mike Trout, I unequivocally hopped on it. I really enjoy drafting on the turn, especially in slow drafts. You get more time in between picks, you can be both proactive and reactive when it's your turn and for the first half of the draft you must make your picks definitively, you can't pass on a guy in hopes of him dropping to you next time around because 32 picks in between your turns in this highly efficient market will eliminate all chances of value slipping through the cracks.
|
|
| | | 2 | KDogHall
ID: 44217710
Thu, Mar 16, 2017, 10:33
|
1.12 Trea Turner
I had the choice between the 9th and 12th slot. I considered 9 because I thought that would get me Josh Donaldson (and it would have), but I prefer to draft as close to the turn as possible, so I chose 12th. I was between Turner & Rizzo. Rizzo was safe and smart, but where's the fun in that? Turner is the shiny new toy who not only has exciting skills, but has a nice bonus in multi position eligibility that should grow into 2B/SS/OF. Never hurts to take players with flexibility early so you have options later on.
2.04 Corey Seager
I did not at all intend to go middle infield with each of my first two picks, but hard to argue with the players I got. I considered Syndergaard but don't like spending such an early pick on pitching for a number of reasons. Seager gets me an elite SS along with my strong 2B and prevents me from having to panic later on and spend too much on poor players once the MI pool dries up.
|
|
| | | 3 | youngroman
ID: 57047243
Thu, Mar 16, 2017, 12:09
|
slot #6
at the time I was up picking my draft slot I had options 2, 3 and 6+ available. #1 is obviously Trout, but there is no clear cut #2 or #3 this year. there is a bunch of guys that are picked in the 2-9 range. I do not like all of them, injuries can happen too, so I went the safe route and took pick #6 which should give me a solid core.
1.06 Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, CHC
I had a small hope that either Goldschmidt or Kershaw might fall to #6. they did not. Kris Bryant was the backup plan. 100+ in runs and RBI, OBP over .360, SLG over .500 and a few steals as well. you can't ask for much more from a 1st round pick.
I also like that he is eligible somewhere other than OF. In the past I drafted outfielders early and had to pass on some gems in the later rounds. this is my first attempt to change that.
|
|
| | | 4 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 38261518
Thu, Mar 16, 2017, 12:23
|
Draft spot selection – I saw a lot of comparative value among the top dozen or so players, so opted for a pick towards the middle/bottom of the draft. I seem to find myself drafting from these spots every year and it’s become something I’m comfortable with.
1.10 Manny Machado, SS, BAL
It’s obvious why Machado is an appealing fantasy player. A young player with room for growth, the only knock on him last year were his non-existent SB. There’s a chance thought, that he picks contributes a handful of those. His eligibility at SS is a great bonus. I always like to draft solid MI early in drafts and there is a strong chance that this would have been my pick if he only qualified at 3B, so it became a no-brainer once SS eligibility was factored in.
|
|
| | | 5 | mailedfoot
ID: 27912109
Thu, Mar 16, 2017, 13:22
|
I figured Trout would be number one so elected to move down a few spots to five. There are a number of players available here that I would be happy with and am thinking it might benefit me on the early even numbered rounds.
1.05 Mookie Betts, OF, BOS
Didn't really expect Mookie to still be available as most of the research I had done showed him number two. Before this unexpected development I was kind of thinking Bryce Harper here and still had to wrestle with myself about it. In the end, I figured Betts has the higher floor and should definitely be a five category guy whereas I'm not sure what kind of SB Harper will provide.
|
|
| | | 6 | jdrenbarger
Dude
ID: 04035768
Thu, Mar 16, 2017, 13:57
|
Slot #3
Had choices of 2, 3 and 8-15; wanted to pick pretty close to the turn in order to hold things up due to work obligations as little as possible, and settled on #3 as I prefer to pick within the first half of draft orders.
1.03 Goldschmidt, Paul - ARI – 1B
Took this slot thinking I’d choose either Betts or Altuve, with the latter my initial preference solely to get started on MI slots far earlier than I usually do. Goldschmidt’s 2016 stat line of 106/95/32/.411/.489, similar 2017 projections and differentiation from all other 1Bs changed my mind – he’s an elite 5 category talent even if he doesn’t run as much this year as last, I think significantly better than any other 1B by a margin exceeding that of other “best of position” players aside from Trout and probably Posey, with a longer track record than either Betts or Altuve, and still not yet 30.
2.14 Pollock, A.J. - ARI – OF
Considered Springer and Dozier (two of the next three hitters off the board, and with the number of MIs already gone a little surprising to me) before rolling the dice on Pollock being all the way back from last year’s injury (and with something to prove). If he comes close to his 2015 line of 111/76/39/.367/.498 he’s a first-round value, he’s also not yet 30, and every indication is that he’s fully healed.
|
|
| | | 7 | ksoze
ID: 182191614
Thu, Mar 16, 2017, 15:22
|
slot #15
I prefer drafting near a turn and was watching spots 2 and 15 get passed over for awhile. I'd have taken 2 if it got to me four picks from the end... Fosten took it one pick before me. That left 15 as my preferred choice, and with 12 picks gone before me I was more than satisfied to get it.
1.15 Correa, Carlos - Hou - SS
With my first two choices I intended to get a pair of offensive players. I set my first round queue with five to go before my pick, and many of those I queued up were high OBP 1B's. Machado was first in my list, though I didn't figure he'd make it to me, then Votto and Cabrera. Correa was next, and the one I landed on. His OBP topped .360 last year, and his SLG was over .500 in 2015, as he progresses he may be able to combine the two for a total nearing .900, coupled with a potential uptick in SB's and he has a decent shot at being a true five category middle infielder.
2.02 - Freeman, Freddie - ATL - 1B
Wanted a definite high OPS here; Freeman and Rizzo had rounded out my last queue so I put them first and second here. I didn't figure Holt would go for two 1B's on the turn but, just in case, I added Encarnacion as a third choice to be sure we didn't get stuck on my pick with an empty queue. Holt took Rizzo who I had listed first due to having a seemingly better surrounding cast in the lineup than Freeman. That said, Freeman's OPS should be somewhere north of .900 again, hopefully he can improve on last year's .968. Seeing, however, that last year's number was more than 100 points higher than his career best, I'll take a repeat. Combine that with around 200 combined runs/RBI and I'm happy with him here.
|
|
| | | 8 | mmikulka
ID: 1122060
Thu, Mar 16, 2017, 16:36
|
Slot #7
My options were 2, 3, and 7-15. I had a tier of 6 players: I didn't really want to draft Betts or Arenado, but it seemed fairly safe that one of them would be taken ahead of me. There wasn't anybody who initially leaped out at me enough to make me take an early slot, but if I had completed my pitching calculations at that point, I would have gone with slot #2 and taken Kershaw.
1.07 Jose Altuve - 2B, HOU
I was hoping Kershaw or Goldschmidt might drop, but no luck. It came down to Altuve and Machado: my main deliberation was whether one of the upper tier shortstops would be available for my 2nd round pick. As soon as I decided that seemed likely, Altuve was my clear choice.
I drafted Altuve last year, and he sure rewarded me then. I'm expecting him to regress most of the way back towards his 2014-15 stats, but those were still 1st round numbers for a middle infielder.
2.10 Francisco Lindor - SS, CLE
I had a tier of 7 great young shortstops (8 if you count Trea Turner), and then an absurdly cataclysmic drop to a tier featuring several players in danger of a sub-.700 OPS. Lindor was the only one remaining, and I gladly snapped him up.
Like Altuve, he provides positives in all 5 categories (especially R, SB, and OBP), and makes me feel good about my MI situation. I'm a little underbalanced in RBI and SLG at the moment, but they should be easy categories for me to fill later in the draft.
|
|
| | | 9 | kdl212
ID: 43240617
Thu, Mar 16, 2017, 17:18
|
Slot #13
I outsmarted myself by choosing #13 when I could have had #2. But like others mentioned, the draft looked to me like Trout followed by a tier of 12-15 hitters followed by a third tier. So instead of taking the more valuable #2 slot, I chose #13, in the hopes of getting 2 hitters from the sub-Trout tier. I'll never pass up the #2 slot again,
1.13 - Miguel Cabrera, 1B
As bankable as 90/100/.390/.530 gets outside of Trout, unless the decline begins this year. Totally unsexy first round pick. My alternative was Correa (and then Freemon, I planned, in the second). I already wish I had done that.
2.04 - Jonathan Villar, SS/3B (and 2B coming), MIL
I don't expect a repeat of last year, but as the size of a league increases, the value of stolen bases increases as well, and a full year of a regressed Villar should still be 50 stolen bases at much better rates than guys like Billy Hamilton, and I had him at #17 on my list. And some mock drafts showed there would be plenty of slugging available in mid-rounds, while the steals are likely to dry up quickly. The positional flexibility was a 50 cent bonus, allowing me to respond to how the draft progresses, but I foresee using him at SS, where I didn't expect to see anything interesting for the rest of the draft. Also considered G. Stanton here, who very surprisingly lasted all the way to pick #40 (my list, apparently using Canadian OBP/SLG figures, had Stanton at #18 overall).
|
|
| | | 10 | Boozer
ID: 971677
Thu, Mar 16, 2017, 18:37
|
#14
With the 14th pick for slots I just went with the closest to the turn. The 9th pick was available but I just wanted to get Scherzer out of the 1st round (sweated that one out a little).
1. (#14) Max Scherzer SP Wash. - Ive had him the last 3 seasons, the guy is superhuman. The strikeouts are the biggest draw and everything else follows. Innings, era, ratio, wins. he's the definition of an anchor. I had him backed up with Bumgarner. if I didnt get one of those top 3 I wouldve gone another direction. Yea he's getting older and his finger hurts. Betting on him again.
If Machado or Donaldson would have slipped to 14, , would have taken one of them
2. (#19) Charlie Blackmon, OF, Col. - solid producer, good power, average, leading off and wants to run more again. Solid numbers in 5 catagories and no sign of decline. Getting a little older, will be 31 in July, slight risk there but seems healthy
|
|
| | | 11 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 38261518
Thu, Mar 16, 2017, 18:42
|
2.07 Starling Marte, OF, PIT
I debated between Marte and Encarnacion. It came down to steals v. power and I opted for steals, as I find it easier to pick up guys with decent OPS numbers later in the draft than to be scrambling for speed guys who decimate the ratios. Marte is younger and and I do worry about age finally catching up to Edwin. But still, this was a win/win scenario and I’m sure I could have adjusted my draft plans with either player. Also, I won’t lie: I started getting a little excited about the Corey Seager dropping to me but that didn’t pan out.
|
|
| | | 12 | mailedfoot
ID: 532131615
Thu, Mar 16, 2017, 22:38
|
Robinson Cano, 2B, SEA
Quite a few MI were already off the board at this point and I decided to scoop up Cano to keep from falling behind in this area. Projected for about .345/.475 with plenty of counting stats. Ideally, he would steal a few more bases, but I will address that later.
|
|
| | | 13 | Dave R
ID: 442121620
Thu, Mar 16, 2017, 23:07
|
Pick 11
I had no strong feelings one way or the other with the option of picking anywhere from 8 to 15. I decide to go somewhere in the middle.
Joey Votto 1B Cin
I had hoped for Machado with my pick, of course he went one pick earlier.
Votto probably won't score, or knock in as many runs as some others, but he about as safe a pick as you can make. Last year he post on OPS of 1.058 over the 2nd half of the season finishing at
.984, wile scoring 101 runs with 97 RBI's
Anything close to those numbers will make this a solid pick
2.06 Xander Bogaerts SS Bos
It's always a good thing to grab a solid MI early. Especially one with some power. Still only 24, Xander just seems to keep getting better.
Over 100 Runs and RBI's are with in reach with a good on base and slugging %'s. He also stole 13 bases last year, if I get some improvement there this could be a great pick
3.11 Gary Sanchez C NYY
I've never drafted a catcher this early in any RIBC league and hadn't planned on it this year. But I'm a Yankee fan, so now I get to root for Sanchez in both real and fantasy life.
As Rotowire put it, " well that's one way to make and entrance ". Sanchez made his Yankee debut in early August and proceeded to hit 20 HR's and knock in 42 runs in a mere 53 games
I'm not dumb enough to expect those lofty numbers to continue, but they don't have to. But in 11 spring games he's hit 4 HR's scored 8 runs with 11 RBI's, so maybe......
And now I don't have to worry about grabbing some catcher, just because I have to.
4.06 Aroldis Chapman RP NYY
My 2nd Yankee is an elite RP, arguably one of the top 3 in the majors.
Last year , 90 K's in just 58 innings, a WHIP of .86 and ERA of 1.55, on the way to 36 saves, and 4 wins. Oh yeah, he did all that despite having to sit out the first 30 games of the season.
Nuf said
|
|
| | | 14 | beastiemiked
ID: 481162721
Fri, Mar 17, 2017, 00:35
|
Pick Selection:
Had chance at #2 but didn't see much difference between #2 and #8. Not much rhyme or reason besides that.
1.08 Bryce Harper, OF, WAS
Was very excited to get Harper at this spot. I assumed he would've been taken ahead of me since his 2015 was so amazing. Most projections have him at 30+ homeruns with a .900+ OPS and double digit steals. He's had 600+ at bats the last two season so hopefully he's shaken off the injuries that semi plagued his first few years. Didn't consider anyone else with Harper still there.
2.09 Trevor Story, SS, COL
Struggled with this pick. Story was the breakout guy last year until he got derailed with an injury. Even then he still had great numbers. His K rate is concerning but who care about it as long as it still produces good numbers. Walk rate should improve. Definitely one of the riskier picks this early on. He could totally fall flat and I don't think anyone would be shocked. He's having a solid spring which usually doesn't mean much but since he's coming back from an injury it's a good sign. That pushed my decision over the edge. Was really close to picking a few guys behind me. Nobody specific that stuck out though so decided Story was my guy.
|
|
| | | 15 | holt
ID: 57232523
Fri, Mar 17, 2017, 11:20
|
Took the 16 slot mostly based on convenience. Figured whoever I got at #16 would be similar to most of the other 1st rd picks.
1.16 Rizzo, Anthony 1B CHC
Just starting out with a solid and consistent hitter. Barring injury, I should be able to bank on .385/.530 with great run production.
2.01 Bumgarner, Madison SP SFO
Bumgarner has put up several strong seasons in a row now. Like Rizzo, he has a long and consistent track record but it still fairly young. Hard to believe he is still only 27. He actually had over 250 K's last season. That's awesome. I wanted to get in on the early top pitchers while there was still some low WHIP candidates available.I'm not personally a big fan of waiting on pitching in this 16 team league.
|
|
| | | 16 | youngroman
ID: 57047243
Fri, Mar 17, 2017, 13:11
|
2.11 Daniel Murphy, 1B/2B, WAS
After all the SS went early this round I hoped that one of them would survive. turned out that the last one from my list was taken 1 pick too early. damn.
So I had to look somewhere else. I considered Syndergaard but feared that I would miss out on a top 2B, just like I did at SS. there are not many players eligible that are better than average at 2B/SS. you either get them now or in the middle to late rounds of the draft. from the 2B's out there I liked Murphy the most. his OBP should be over .350 and his SLG over .500. none of the other options (Cano, Dozier, Odor) comes close to that. they might be slightly better in R/RBI or SB, but the overall package of Murphy is far better.
|
|
| | | 17 | youngroman
ID: 57047243
Fri, Mar 17, 2017, 14:15
|
3.06 Jake Arrieta, SP, CHC
after taking 2 hitters I thought that taking a pitcher in the 3rd round would be a good idea. a lot of pitchers went in the last few picks, so why not pick one by myself. The list I considered included Arrieta, Lester and Verlander. I have no preference for either of them, so I looked at various projections and took the player that looked like the safest pick among them.
|
|
| | | 19 | Fosten
ID: 4097314
Fri, Mar 17, 2017, 17:13
|
1.02 Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL
aka. “That power hitter from Colorado”. With the 12th pick in the lottery, the 2nd draft slot somehow fell to me. Really wanted to go Syndergaard here, but was hoping I could sleep him until the 2nd round. Goldschmidt also a viable option. Do I want to wait for 1B or 3B? I think I can get steals later, 130 RBIs are a lot of magic beans.
2.15 Noah Syndergaard, SP, NYM
aka. “The best player in baseball. Randy Johnson 2.0. Archenemy of Mr. Met"
Noah throw hard. Noah eat sandwiches. Fire! Burn!
Fosten draft favorite player. Fosten eat sandwiches. Rock! Smash!
Noah sorry. Fosten sorry. This is why we can’t have nice things.
3.02 George Springer, OF, HOU
aka. "5 tools, all sharp, none dull”. Was torn between Springer, Stanton, and Cespedes. Cespedes is a beast, Stanton is undervalued, but in the end, I decided to go Springer because 120 Runs are more magic beans for the counting stats and I was copying off of Jordanski from AAA-ESPN (Team ASS = Arenado, Syndergaaard, Springer).
4.15 Rougned Odor, 2B, TEX
aka. “A top 20 player at 63 overall? Yes, please!” I passed on lottery slots this year that would have netted MI the likes of Seager, Turner, and Correa. Why? Because for some reason 3 rounds later, Odor is still out there. What is this madness? Sure, he doesn’t walk a lot, and he doesn’t hit line drives, but he’s ultra aggressive, with a ton of power. If you’re not a Belieber, Odor will punch you in the face. He really likes The Biebs!
5.02 Anthony Rendon, 3B, WSH
aka. “The guy who hits after Harper”. 3B is a position with few elites, but also great depth. And sometimes I have this thing, where I keep waiting around later and later in drafts for 3B, and then I forget to take one. So, this year, I’m taking two. In the final five months of 2016, Rendon put up a .275-76-20-84-11 line. In April, he hit .242-15-0-1-1 I’m either going to love this pick, or hate this pick, or think it was okay.
|
|
| | | 20 | ksoze
ID: 7141224
Fri, Mar 17, 2017, 17:53
|
3.15 Cespedes, Yoenis - OF - NYM
Was targeting another bat here, preferably a big one. Abreu and Yelich were taken from my queue before the pick got to me, though I don't think either were higher in it than Cespedes, and McCutchen was in there somewhere also. Cespedes has a 2 year streak of .860+ OPS, and without the quad issues in 2015 he had 200+ runs/RBI combined, here's hoping the quad issues stay away in 2017.
|
|
| | | 21 | mailedfoot
ID: 531322718
Fri, Mar 17, 2017, 19:11
|
3.05 Yu Darvish, SP, TEX
Selected Darvish to anchor my staff, as it was going to be 23 picks until I was up again and I like to have at least one legitimate ace. After coming back last year his K/9 was an excellent 11.84 and since Ks have historically been a weak spot for my teams I figured I would attack that issue early this year. I considered a couple of other starters but I think Darvish has a higher ceiling if he can put it all together.
|
|
| | | 22 | Seattle Zen
ID: 1610533022
Fri, Mar 17, 2017, 20:51
|
2.16.31 Chris Sale, SP, BOS
When planning my first picks on the turn, I figured that all of the top MI would be gone as well as the top six firstbasemen. Therefore the top bats would be outfielders. Could I take three OF with my first three picks? I'd prefer not to, but I would have if I didn't have Sale on the board. Watching the draft unfold, I got my hopes up that Thor would slip down to me. I took him in the 5th round last year and he was outstanding. However, I need to remind myself occasionally that players who project very similar numbers are interchangeable. Who will have the better season between Syndergaard and Sale, it is honestly a coin flip. Plus, I have drafted the Human Praying Mantis twice before in RIBC and he has not disappointed. I could see him win 20 games as Fenway is actually less of a hitters' park than whatever they call that terrible new Commisky park these days and, of course, the Red Sox actually win a bunch of games.
3.01.33 Nelson Cruz, OF, SEA
I had three bats in mind here, all of them outfielders - Cruz, Braun and Stanton. All three will contribute runs+rbi. Braun is your classic five category man, less OPS than the other two, but he steals. Cruz is the oldest and once he had a poor health reputation, but he has been very solid for the past five seasons and anyone who can hit forty or more homers as a Mariner is wicked strong.
Oh, Giancarlo... I can envision starting my end of the season victory speech like, "Mike Trout and Giancarlo Stanton carried me to victory this year." One of maybe five players who could post a 1000 OPS. Built like a superhero, it's like a five year old drew what he thinks a baseball player should look like (or football, for that matter). But someone wrote recently in a draft write up, "hey, he does this to you every year, it's time you stop answering his texts and move on." He is the ultimate risk/reward pick and I commend BMD for taking him. He has such a great track record in RIBC that if Stanton does his thing and craps out after 72 games, he'll find a way to still finish in the top six. I don't have the track record to do that.
I am going to see the Marlins for the first time in Seattle on April 19, so the odds of watching God's Gift to the Outfield play are much higher than if it were a September game.
I'm not a fan of George Springer or AJ Pollock, they are in the next tier. Springer's OPS is pedestrian, sure, he scored a lot of runs last year, but until he learns how to successfully steal a base, he is overrated. Pollock has had one great year in his career and he is 29 years old. Priced too high.
|
|
| | | 23 | holt
ID: 301312616
Fri, Mar 17, 2017, 21:49
|
3.16 Cueto, Johnny SP SFO
I took Bumgarner in rd 2, following up with Cueto to try to retain an edge in pitching. I don't mind searching for my #3 to #5 SP's after round 8 but I don't want to search for my #1 & 2 that late, so here we are, taking good pitchers early. Cueto had a great season with SF last season. Hoping for more of the same (18W, 200K, 2.95, 1.09).
4.01 Gonzalez, Carlos OF COL
Had Rizzo, and two pitchers. Figured I'd better take another power hitter with decent OPS and good R/RBI production. I've been burned by Gonzalez before. Might not have been the safest move here but there is definitely a chance of him out-performing his 4th round draft position.
|
|
| | | 24 | ksoze
ID: 7141224
Fri, Mar 17, 2017, 21:55
|
4.02 Hendricks, Kyle - SP - CUBS
Time to go after a SP; if I hold off until my next choice the potentially elite ones will likely be gone. After my round 3 pick I queued up three to ensure I got one, Cueto, Hendricks and Verlander. Cueto went first, leaving me with Hendricks, who I prefer over Verlander due to the effect the superior (to every other team last year) Cubs D will have on ERA/WHIP. Couple that with the likelihood that their O helps generate a few more wins than Detroit's will for Verlander and I'm fine sacrificing the extra K's Verlander will have.
|
|
| | | 25 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 38261518
Fri, Mar 17, 2017, 22:09
|
3.10 Ryan Braun, OF, MIL
Braun continues to produce across the board despite his age. Numbers similar to last year, even with a slight regression would make me happy. One reason I made this pick was because of his double-digit steals. It’s been a long time since I’ve had him on my team in fantasy and I’m looking forward to it. I did get a little excited when I thought Stanton might make it to me. These early rounds are heartbreaking in that way.
|
|
| | | 26 | Bmd
ID: 825715
Fri, Mar 17, 2017, 22:29
|
3.08 Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA
Everybody knows him and knows his history. He's a beast when healthy and arguably the most power in the game. High risk high reward. He has 1st round potential if he stays healthy. Arrieta was who I was hoping would slip to me but I'm ok with settling for Stanton. Considered Lester and Verlander but didn't see much difference between them and who I could get in round 4 or 5.
|
|
| | | 27 | twilson
ID: 2221181
Sat, Mar 18, 2017, 02:01
|
0.02 Slot #4
With the second pick of draft slot, I had my choice of everything except #1, which was very clearly the best slot. After that, I felt a lot of options could work for me. I’m not really sure there’s a bad place to be. After Trout, my top player is Kershaw. I feel pretty confident that I can go with #4 and still get him. It’s also possible he could drop lower than that, although I know at least one owner that likely values him similarly.
I’m also tempted to drop lower and grab a pair of strong performers. I would be happy leading off with Harper, Donaldson, or Cabrera and then pivoting to one of the young stud SS in the 2nd. If I go with 4th, it’ll be borderline whether one of the SS will still be around at 2.13. I’d be dependent on somebody taking a pitcher in the 5 picks leading up to mine, which is always tough to rely on in this league.
I decided to stick with the early pick and Kershaw. It’ll be nice to draft in the early third also with the pure snake format. This year is closer to fair and balanced than usual for a pure snake, but the Banzai format used by RIFC is still heavily preferable.
1.04 Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD
Mike Trout is far and away the best player in fantasy, but Kershaw is an appealing second for me. He’s essentially an elite relief pitcher with a starter’s workload. I’m sure nobody will argue his impact, but many disagree with the concept of taking a pitcher in the first round or two. I am very much not a guy who feels the need to anchor my staff with a stud. As recently as 2015, I didn’t take my first SP until 9.11. But Kershaw is the type of difference maker that demands a break from established preferences.
Part of this pick was my inability to find a hitter that I trusted in all facets. Goldschmidt had a substantial power drop in 2016. He made up for it with extra SBs, but I think it is more likely that they go away too than the slugging returns. Mookie Betts is a legitimate 5-category performer, but I don’t see the underlying hitting skills as truly elite. Kris Bryant made meaningful strides toward a better approach last year, but he still has a bit to go before I’m totally in love. I do really like his dual eligibility, though.
|
|
| | | 28 | twilson
ID: 2221181
Sat, Mar 18, 2017, 02:02
|
2.13 Buster Posey, C, SF
No luck on the SS. All gone by 2.10. Even my backup plan of Daniel Murphy is gone. I fully believe in his updated approach at the plate and think he will be a very good value for youngroman.
That leaves me with a lot of options to work through. My strategy here is strongly tied to my pick at 3.04 as well. I certainly don’t want to start SP/SP, so all of those guys are immediately off the board.
There are some interesting outfielders I could take. Springer has a solid track record and an elite pedigree. I’d be paying for essentially a repeat of last year, which seems very doable from a rates perspective. He sure did have a lot of plate appearances in 2016, though, which will be hard to duplicate. The pedigree suggests room for growth; however, I haven’t seen any indication of it in his approach.
Christian Yelich was a delight to own last year. He is just a fantastic hitter, and it’s so easy to dream about what another shift toward flyballs from grounders would do for his numbers. Like Springer, I don’t necessarily expect it to happen. A lesser lineup than the Astros also means fewer counting stats. As a side note, I’m growing more and more skeptical of Stanton’s ability to rebound. He just seems lost in some ways, even putting aside his tendency to miss time.
AJ Pollock is back from his broken ankle and offers SB upside to go with his reasonably strong rate stats. I can always use more steals at a fair price. There is obviously uncertainty about his ability to fully return to form, and a barking groin in spring training right now isn’t the best of omens. I could also go with JD Martinez, another hitter I enjoy. I think he will continue to rake, and he has little downside risk, if not quite the upside of those previously mentioned.
Returning to the inner diamond, I see some appeal to Matt Carpenter and Brian Dozier. Carpenter is another hitter with multiple strengths and few weaknesses. His second half performance was impacted by injury, which only boosts his chances of meeting my expectations. The 1B/2B/3B eligibility must also be mentioned. Dozier hits way too many popups and wimpy grounders, but he offers real home run power and throws in a decent number of steals.
Finally, there are the top two catchers. Buster Posey is the historical top choice. He has been remarkably consistent, and his extra games played at first base really help separate him from the rest of the position. In contrast, Gary Sanchez offers league-leading power tempered by a flawed hitting profile. Sample size is my biggest concern, as the league has had an offseason to look for flaws in approach.
I have a personal philosophy that when in doubt, skip the outfielders. Had Pollock not been dealing with the groin injury, I may have taken that plunge for the sake of steals. As it was, I made what I felt was a safe value choice and took Posey. Pre-draft, I had him as a strong option for 3.04, but circumstances change and he became my pick.
|
|
| | | 29 | twilson
ID: 2221181
Sat, Mar 18, 2017, 02:02
|
3.04 Brian Dozier, 2B, MIN
This pick was a continuation of my thoughts at 2.13. Pollock and Springer were now gone, but everybody else was on the table. When I took Posey, I figured Matt Carpenter would be my most likely pick here. Qualifying at three positions is just so helpful both in-season and for drafting flexibility, and I do think he offers as much or more value as anybody else on the board. Unfortunately, further checks revealed that he is dealing with a recurrence of back/oblique pain, which was the injury that limited his effectiveness last year. I just don’t feel comfortable owning that risk at this point in the draft.
That left Dozier and the rest of the outfielders. I threw McCutchen into the mix for good measure. I have significant concerns about Dozier’s ability to repeat his 2016 line, and he’s not the type of hitter I typically like to own. This decision reminds me a lot of my debate between Carpenter and Todd Frazier at 3.07 last year, especially because I have some 2B I like later on in the draft too. Despite all of that, I once again couldn’t pull the trigger on an outfielder. Thus, Dozier became the default choice.
|
|
| | | 30 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 38261518
Sat, Mar 18, 2017, 07:43
|
4.07 Chris Archer, SP, TB
Last year in round 4 of the AAA, I made the decision to pass on SP and take more offense. My pitching suffered terribly all season without a true #1 starter. Coming into this draft, I told myself I would not repeat that mistake. It was tempting to take Kyle Seager here and I was also talking myself into Chapman but he went just before this pick. I also gave some consideration to Britton but in the end I forced myself to follow my pre-draft strategy and anchor my staff. Archer was among a few I considered, including my homer pick of deGrom, and I settled on him by based on his high K rate and strong finish to the season.
|
|
| | | 31 | youngroman
ID: 57047243
Sat, Mar 18, 2017, 08:37
|
4.11 J.D. Martinez, OF, DET
looking at other teams, until my next pick, all of them have 1 SP. maybe 1 or 2 will pick a 2nd one, but not much more. at least that is what I believe. with this in mind I intend to get a hitter here and pitcher at 5.06.
the list of hitters that I considered included 2 infielders (Seager, Myers) and 1 outfielder (Martinez). Myers would have been my top choice, simply because of the limited number of available 1B's and the need to have 2 on my roster. he did not make it. 2nd in line was JD Martinez. He is not that far off when comparing him to Daniel Murphy. he strikes out a lot more (= worse OBP) and he plays OF compared to 1B/2B. all other projected stats are almost identical.
|
|
| | | 32 | mailedfoot
ID: 531322718
Sat, Mar 18, 2017, 08:55
|
4.12 Carlos Santana, 1B, CLE
I still need a 1B and don't want to neglect this position any longer as I have been burned by doing so in the past. Santana projects very well in the OBP/SLG format, should be good in counting stats, and even kick in a handful of SB. Considered a few other players but Santana felt like the right move.
|
|
| | | 33 | kdl212
ID: 51152323
Sat, Mar 18, 2017, 12:37
|
3.13 Christian Yelich, OF, MIA
Popular candidate to become an all-around star. Has the tools to produce in all 5 categories, especially if Stanton plays all year and constantly drives him in. Was choosing between Yelich and JD Martinez, and went with the steals now hoping to pick up power later.
4.04 Justin Verlander, SP, DET
JD Martinez was still on the board, and looked appealing. Carlos Santana was the top value on my sheet, but I already had Cabrera at 1B. Not sure why that means I shouldn't take the top player on my board--there is a CI spot and a DH slot to fill, after all--but it did.
Had Verlander last year, which was delicious, since he only cost me an 11th round pick. I despise paying full price for guys I had on my team last year at a discount, but I wanted a 200 strike-out anchor for my rotation, and was too chicken to pick Strasburg. The downside to picking a starting pitcher here was the soul-crushing 24 picks between this and my next when, somehow, a full 36 of my hitting targets were selected.
|
|
| | | 34 | jdrenbarger
Dude
ID: 04035768
Sat, Mar 18, 2017, 15:59
|
3.03 Kluber, Corey – CLE – SP
Still considering Springer and Dozier here, but really wanted a high K staff anchor if I could get Sale, Syndergaard or Kluber. Only two of the five (Kluber and Dozier) fell to me (and Dozier went on the following pick), and I’m happy to pick up my first SP. He’s not quite elite in the way Kershaw, Scherzer and Bumgarner are in Ks and ratios, but I like him quite a bit better than the top of the next tier of pitchers. Kluber’s been a consistently excellent workhorse for the last three years (sub 1.1 WHIP, 215+ Ks and 225+ IPs each year) and there’s no reason to expect anything but another excellent season this year.
4.14 Polanco, Gregory – PIT – OF
Was looking for hitters both here and on the turn, and ideally a MI among them. Couldn’t bring myself to pull the trigger on Gordon, Odor or Desmond for various reasons, and others I were considering (e.g., Myers, Martinez) had gone within the preceding five picks. Polanco’s not as safe as I like this early – lots of nagging injuries last year and a poor second half – but he’s a high upside hitter with both speed and developing power, not yet 26, who is considered likely by many to have the breakout his first half last year (.374/.521/50 RBI/9 SB in 330 plate appearances through July 4th) hinted at. Going in other drafts right about at this spot on average, and a second round value if everything breaks well for me.
|
|
| | | 35 | youngroman
ID: 57047243
Sat, Mar 18, 2017, 16:23
|
5.06 Adrian Beltre, 3B, TEX
the first decision to take was: pitcher or hitter. upon looking at all the pitchers worthy to draft here or in the near future I saw too many of them. one of them will likely land on my team at 6.11.
at hitter I mainly considered infielders because the valuable options dry up fast. A Segura of 2016 would be gold. A Segura of 2014 or 2015 would not be worth it. I am not sure about the playing time of Hanley Ramirez. there are already injury concerns with him. can Aledmys Diaz repeat? will Kyle Schwarber see enough playing time? In the end I took the oldest and most consistent one of that group: Adrian Beltre. looking at his stats from the last few years I don't see why he should not produce similar stats this year.
the only concern for my team tight now is that I am lacking in SB's. but I guess this is the problem of every team that has not Billy Hamilton or Dee Gordon on it.
|
|
| | | 36 | mmikulka
ID: 1122060
Sat, Mar 18, 2017, 19:21
|
3.07 Kenley Jansen – RP, LAD
I consider closers, particularly the elite ones, to be heavily undervalued every year.
Time to play everybody's favorite game:
Player A: 202 IP | 8.96 K/9 | 15 Wins | 3.35 | 1.18
Player B: 195.2 IP | 9.21 K/9 | 12 Wins | 3.40 | 1.16
Player A is the average of all the full seasons in the careers of Jon Lester, Corey Kluber, Justin Verlander, and Yu Darvish.
Player B is the average of Kenley Jansen's 5 years as closer combined with a fictional last-round SP who goes 130 IP of 4.00/1.33 with 7 K/9 and 9 Wins.
So the value of an elite closer is roughly that of SP #6-10, except you also get the massive added value of 30+ saves (Jansen's average is 36).
I knew I wanted either Jansen or Chapman: it was just a question of who. My projections have Chapman being the better pitcher, but Jansen getting more saves. It was a tough decision, but the more I looked at it, the more I gravitated to Jansen.
He has less-threatening relief talent behind him, plays in a far more pitcher-friendly league and division, wasn't overworked in the postseason, doesn't play for the dreaded Yankees, and presumably hasn't choked or threatened any of his girlfriends.
4.10 Chris Davis – 1B, BAL
It was tempting to double up on elite closers, and I probably would have if Chapman made it back around to me.
I considered Strasburg, who was my best available pitcher at this point. However, my only batters were 2B/SS, and so I needed some RBI and SLG.
Bautista jumped out to me as the best remaining player, but OF are easy to come by, and 1B were already getting pretty thin. It came down to Bautista and Davis. Bautista's age and downturn last season concern me a little, but not really much more than Davis' erratic past few years.
It still feels really weird to choose a 1B for position scarcity, but with 48+ starting CI, those bottom players can be pretty rough. I know from experience, as I found myself starting a grossly-overpaid aging former star from an NL East team during multiple seasons.
Davis's last few seasons have been extremely volatile, but the average of them works out to be very good. If he's in the general vicinity of his projections, he'll be a strong starter. At the very least, he should be reliable for excellent R+RBI totals in that lineup/home park/division.
|
|
| | | 38 | mmikulka
ID: 1122060
Sat, Mar 18, 2017, 20:36
|
5.07 Stephen Strasburg – SP, WAS
I've drafted Strasburg quite frequently and have always enjoyed having him on my teams, but for whatever reason, everybody always seems to hate on him. Injuries are frustrating, particularly in this format, but I think people are heavily overcompensating. Over his last 5 seasons, he's averaged 166.1 IP, and those innings have been spectacular: his career line is 3.16/1.09 with a 10.55 K/9.
I calculated that he would still be my best player remaining at this point even if he only reaches 145 IP. Even just 100 IP at his projected rates would still keep him as a top-25 SP.
He's on a team with a strong offense in a division with 3 lousy teams and the Mets, so his win total should be pretty high even in a shortened season. Steamer agrees, putting his W/IP ratio in the top 5.
My only main concern was the flexor mass strain he had last year, which makes it more likely for him to tear his UCL. I don't recall anybody freaking out when Chris Sale or Andrew Miller had them, though. I had been thinking about taking another closer or possibly Justin Upton, but once I decided I was fine with Strasburg's injury risk, it wasn't a tough decision.
6.10 Justin Upton – OF, DET
As it became clear that my pick was going to happen overnight or in the early morning, I had to set up a four-person queue. There were four players I viewed well above everybody else: Ken Giles, Carlos Carrasco, Justin Upton, and (undrafted).
I agonized over the order, and eventually decided that I needed a 2nd closer at some point anyway, so Giles should be first.
As it turned out, my debating was mostly a waste of time, because 2 of the 3 picks ahead of me were Giles and Carrasco.
Upton was the only remaining player I had projected to provide positive value in all 5 categories. His first half of last season was a disaster, and that clearly must have scared people off. He was on fire during the 2nd half, though, and his numbers finished close to where they always have been. His OBP was down a bit, but he also had some abysmal ground ball luck.
I checked where he was drafted in my last 3 seasons: 2016 AAA (39), 2015 AAA (47), 2014 RIBC (30).
At age 29, it's possible his skills may have dropped off a little, but this feels like a steal at pick 90.
|
|
| | | 39 | jdrenbarger
Dude
ID: 04035768
Sat, Mar 18, 2017, 22:06
|
5.03 LeMahieu, DJ - COL - 2B
With no one particularly standing out, I was looking for a MI here based largely upon the number already taken from a not particularly deep pool. Principally considered Gordon, Segura, Kinsler and LeMahieu and could have made a case for any of them; particularly liked Segura’s dual position eligibility, Kinsler’s track record of consistently pretty solid performance, and of course Gordon’s potential game-changing SBs. Hard to ignore LeMahieu’s (the NL’s 2016 batting champ) 5 category balance and stats from 2016, though (104/66/11/.416/.495), and I think he’s the safest multiple-category bet of the four given Kinsler’s age (~ 6 yrs older than the others), Gordon’s likely abysmal OBP, and LeMahieu playing half his games at Coors Field instead of at Safeco.
In retrospect, I probably should have thought more carefully about three closers already being off the board by the time of this pick ... the first closer didn’t go until after my 5th round pick in this draft last year and, even then, I felt all but compelled to draft closers with my next two selections.
6.14 Allen, Cody - CLE - RP
The closer run is fully underway at this point – 12 closers gone, and 8 of them within the 16 picks immediately preceding mine. My general practice is to pick up the leftovers after the first feeding frenzy has run its course, but I wasn’t willing to wait and see what was left after the 26 picks between my 7th and 8th round selections. Principally considered Familia, Robertson and Allen and all come with some uncertainty – Familia’s potential suspension, a likely trade of Robertson at some point this year, and Francona’s willingness to insert his best bullpen pitcher (Miller) wherever and whenever he thinks he most needs him. I personally believe Familia’s the best pitcher and in the best situation of the three, but went with Allen based upon him remaining the closer after they acquired Miller last year and Francona’s statement in mid-February that he’ll again be the closer this year.
|
|
| | | 40 | jdrenbarger
Dude
ID: 04035768
Sat, Mar 18, 2017, 22:17
|
*correction to post 39 (5.03) ... Gordon's likely abysmal SLG ...
|
|
| | | 41 | Boozer
ID: 971677
Sat, Mar 18, 2017, 22:27
|
3.14, 1B Jose Abreau
1st basemen were going quick. Its a position where you need some numbers imo, some power. I'm not seeing the gloom and doom that Ive been reading about with this guy,. Counting on consistency, 30ish hr, 100rbi, decent slg and obp. Has so far, not scared of him at 3.14 but would've liked the opinion of a Chicago guy cause I don't see him play that much. I think hel'l stay healthy, get 600 ab's and get it done. not a sexy pick, but fine with it.
|
|
| | | 42 | Boozer
ID: 262381821
Sat, Mar 18, 2017, 22:39
|
4.03 Billy Hamilton OF cin
some knucklehead drafts him early every season. I have no problem with that, done it several times. Maybe when somebody drafts him early and it happens every season, its not early anymore? Who can give you these kind of steals, what if he stays healthy and hits/wlks? even done pretty well without that . its nice not to worry about steals, its a risk but its got a tremendous upside, even this early. we'll see what happens
|
|
| | | 43 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 38261518
Sun, Mar 19, 2017, 01:08
|
5.10 Hanley Ramirez, 1B, BOS
HanRam comes with the great advantage of hitting in the potent BOS line-up and with Big Papi no longer present, there will be plenty of opportunities for him to step in and become a counting stats monster. I see no reason for him to produce less than last year and actually think there is room for him to build on that by just a little. I love that he throws in a handful of steals with an OPS around .850 and close to 200 R/RBI combined.
|
|
| | | 44 | kdl212
ID: 51152323
Sun, Mar 19, 2017, 02:53
|
5.13 Justin Turner, 3B, LAD
Definitely feels like a reach, but here are the (curiously low) ZIPS rate projections for K. Seager, Beltre, and Turner, in some order:
337/463
343/462
333/461
Whichever one is Turner doesn't stand out. Plus, he's slugged .490 for 3 straight years. If you take out his first two awful months last year, when he was recovering from surgery, he went something like 345/560. I probably could have waited, but 2 third basemen did go in the 6 picks between this and my next, so he might not have made it back to me. I'm pretty confident that he wouldn't have made it back to me at 7.13 in this league.
More agonizing than reaching for a player is watching all those hitters I had eyes on disappear as the 5th round took its sweet time getting to my at pick 13: Seager, Rendon, Hanley, LeMahieu. Another reminder why I should have taken draft slot 2.
|
|
| | | 45 | ksoze
ID: 7141224
Sun, Mar 19, 2017, 08:23
|
5.15 - Hwan Oh, Seung - RP - STL
It sure appeared like we might be in the midst of a mini closer run here; I figured I might need to take one with one of these two picks rather than waiting to see what was left of the position 29 picks later. When Boozer took Herrera, I decided it needed to be now. Good thing, too, as two more closers went to Holt at the turn, then another 10 before my next set of picks. Hwan Oh is an elite closer, albeit with just half a season's experience in MLB, but with a career's worth of experience in Korea and Japan. His ERA and WHIP should be stellar and he'll K well more than a batter an inning. There were other more established MLB options out there, many of whom had their respective issues in 2016 or aren't likely to be as consistent as Hwan Oh, though they weren't part of the large queue I'd set up about 11 hours prior, after 5.01 in prep for being gone all day for the Red Sox/Astros ST game and then dinner. This queue would help ensure that there would be at least one player left if we reached 6.02 before I got home. Then, every one of the next ten picks pulled someone from my queue, a streak for me unlike any other I recall in an RIBC league, and one that began to cause me a bit of anxiety as I'm used to having at least a few players to choose from when working with my queues. Thankfully the streak ended with one RP remaining.
|
|
| | | 46 | ksoze
ID: 7141224
Sun, Mar 19, 2017, 08:37
|
6.02 - Sano, Miguel - 3B - MIN
I'm betting here that Sano's OPS falls somewhere firmly between 2015's short season .916 and 2016's disastrous (for where is was drafted) .781, likely somewhere in the low to mid 8's, with a run/RBI total closer to 165 than the 123 he had last year. The rest of my original 17 remaining in the queue consisted of 2 SP's (not going with 3 pitchers in a row or two at a turn at this point in the draft) and 3 OF's, so I took Sano figuring that I could still get value in the OF position 29 picks from now. Ironically, all three of those OF were still around when the draft got to me in round 7.
|
|
| | | 47 | Dave R
ID: 442121620
Sun, Mar 19, 2017, 08:52
|
5.11 Jacob deGrom SP NYM
My third straight player from NY, this time from the Mets. If nothing else I'll get to watch them on occasion.
I really had hoped Gordon was available with this pick, but alas Guru snatched him two picks earlier.
deGrom had some injury issues the 2nd half of last year, but despite that posted a 3.04 ERA and 1.2 WHIP, struck out out almost a batter per inning. Seemingly full healthy, I'm looking for more of the same, with 16 or so wins. A pretty good start for my roster as my first SP
Ian Kinsler 2B Det
Now is time to grab a second baseman, having missed out on Gordon. Nothing fancy here, Kinsler should post decent ratios, and be a lock for 100 runs as Detroit's leadoff hitter
He might even steal a few bases, and should knock in 85 or so
|
|
| | | 48 | mailedfoot
ID: 531322718
Sun, Mar 19, 2017, 08:53
|
5.05 Jean Segura, SS, SEA
Many needs but only one pick…top closers are coming off the board, could still use a muscle bat, and need more starting pitching. But the more I look at various options, the more I like Segura. Didn’t realize what a great season he had last year….368/.499 with 33 SB. Most projections expect some serious regression but he is only 27, apparently made some changes in his approach, and was once a highly touted prospect so maybe he can duplicate or come close to this again. In any event, he should provide good to great production with 30 SB and has eligibility at both MI positions, so I am taking the plunge.
|
|
| | | 49 | holt
ID: 57232523
Sun, Mar 19, 2017, 11:50
|
5.16 Davis, Wade RP CHC
As much as I'd like to draft some bats on this turn it is clear that I will only have high risk closer options if I wait til rds 7/8, so I bite the bullet and go with Wade Davis and Osuna.
I figure Davis for around 2.00 era and 1.00 whip with at least a K per inning. Closing for the Cubs should offer some save chances. It's a bit cruel that ksoze took Seung Hwan Oh at 5.15. I love the Cardinals and absolutely despise the Cubs. Here I am with three stupid Cubs on my fantasy roster.
6.01 Osuna, Roberto RP TOR
Osuna is only 22 but already has 56 saves under his belt. His career whip of 0.93 and 9.8 K/9 seem solid enough. My team has a lot of holes to fill, but at least the closer hurdle is out of the way.
|
|
| | | 50 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 38261518
Sun, Mar 19, 2017, 14:32
|
6.07 Alex Bregman, 3B, HOU
This pick came up on the heels of a mini closer run and was followed by another mini closer run (1 mini closer run + 1 mini closer run = 1 maxi closer run?) but I am not going to participate. The closer run is something I respond differently to every year. I’ve skipped them altogether, I’ve participated, and last year I took the 4th closer off the board. Suffice it to say I’m not convinced there’s only one way to compete in these leagues, as I’ve been content with my results over the years. This year and at this stage of the draft, I was not ready to participate.
I went into the draft with a plan to value youth. My last two offensive players picked don’t provide the upside of youth I want. 3B has a lot of depth but I found it too hard to resist the allure of Bregman. The projections I’m looking at make him a strong play and contributor across the board. Any step forward he makes from those projections and I’m looking at a bargain.
|
|
| | | 51 | kdl212
ID: 51152323
Sun, Mar 19, 2017, 18:27
|
6.04 Craig Kimbrel, RP, BOS
I'm usually at the middle or tail of closer runs, but it looked like pretty clear that it was coming, and not picking for 24 picks (of which I guessed 8-10 would be closers), I went for the highest k/9 guy I saw in Kimbrel. Strongly considered Alex Bregman here, and I imagine at the end of the season I'll wish I'd had Bregman + a lesser closer than Kimbrel + whoever I pick in the next round.
|
|
| | | 52 | mailedfoot
ID: 531322718
Sun, Mar 19, 2017, 18:31
|
6.12 Alex Colome, RP, TB
The top, locked-in closers are all taken now; in my mind, the remaining guys have various questions marks. But I want to at least be in position to collect some saves to begin the season and Colome fits the bill. He took over the closer role last year and put up 11 K/9 with 1.91 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. If he can duplicate that, I don’t see him losing the job and he should be good for about 35 saves.
|
|
| | | 53 | youngroman
ID: 57047243
Sun, Mar 19, 2017, 18:58
|
6.11 Brandon Belt, 1B, SF
I initially planned on picking a starting pitcher here, but looking at the talent available at the 2 infield positions I still need to fill (1B, SS) I changed my plan. There are 2 1B's worthy of being picked in the next 5 rounds: Belt and Hosmer. and there is a questionable SS: Almedys Diaz. I better pick one of those 3 here and then go for pitchers in the next few rounds.
I have Brandon Belt above Hosmer because of his OBP/SLG which is more important to me at this point than runs and RBI's. all of these scrappy MI's that we need to carry will have poor percentages so I take everything I can to counter that. at least this early in the draft.
|
|
| | | 54 | Dave R
ID: 442121620
Sun, Mar 19, 2017, 22:20
|
7.11 A.J. Ramos RP Mia
With one closer in fold, I had no plans on drafting a 2nd one at this point, and would have been better off to fill other holes. I still needed a 3rd baseman, my first OF'er, but none were screaming "draft me".
I decided to get a 2nd closer. Hello A.J. Ramos. Ramos tends to walk more than I like, but he K'd 73 in 64 innings last year, on the way to 40 saves
8.06 Jose Peraza OF/SS Cin
I hadn't addressed steals and gave some thought to punting the category. But Peraza intrigued me. Starting the season with SS/OF eligibility, Jose is slated to be the Reds starting second baseman. I love the flexibility.
Peraza probably wont offer much more than steals, but the Reds lineup could be interesting pairing Hamilton and Peraza at the top of the order
|
|
| | | 55 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Sun, Mar 19, 2017, 23:55
|
4.16.64 Jonathan Lucroy, C, TEX
This went against my tendency to wait until round 23 to pick a catcher. My very first RIBC draft pick was 2010 - Joe Mauer. Whoops! Haven't liked catchers since.
I was REALLY hoping that R Odor was going to drop after seeing the Guru take Matt Carpenter early in the 4th. He is taken somewhere in the 30s or early forties in other leagues, yes, even OBP ones. I had reasons to believe Fosten was going to take him right before me, so this disappointment was not too shocking. I was also amazed to see JD Martinez drop so much, I would have taken him if he had survived.
With two picks to make, it was between Lucroy, Seager, Beltre and Dee Gordon. Even though I coveted both Odor and Gordon, second base is so very deep. Last year there was an embarrassment of riches at the two bag, unlike anything I've seen in 20 years at a middle infield position. Dee Gordon has such a high negative downside, he is always a little too close to a .280 OBP and getting sat down or put at eighth in the lineup.
J Lucroy, on the other hand, is all alone in a tier of one, not quite as high an upside as Posey, but so much better than the other catchers. His OPS at Texas last year was nearly 900, I think he's a pretty safe bet for a strong 800 OPS with plenty of counting stats.
5.01.65 Kyle Seager, 3rd, SEA
I choose Kyle Seager over Adrian Beltre because Kyle has been solid, a steady increase in production at the plate for four straight years. He's what a simpleton thinks is what all baseball players' careers look like. I'm not crazy that two of my first five players are Mariners, I guess I will end up watching more of their games than usual. Beltre, I believe, will likely have an age related regression to the mean, last season was atypical of a 37 year old at third base.
|
|
| | | 56 | Bmd
ID: 825715
Mon, Mar 20, 2017, 00:15
|
4.09 Wil Myers, 1B, SDG
Probably would redo this pick if I did it again. He's a 5 category contributor but has a history of injuries. He stayed healthy last year but doesn't mean he will this year. Would've probably had picked a closer here if I knew just how overdrafted they would become later in the draft.
5.08 Carlos Martinez, SP, STL
He follows the theme so far of my draft. Youth. Still could move up a tier in pitching. There's concern about injury but every pitcher has that concern.
|
|
| | | 57 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Mon, Mar 20, 2017, 00:19
|
6.16.96 Masahiro Tanaka, SP, NYY
Damn, looking at which batts I like at this point is frustrating, it's almost all outfielders. I already have two. I'd rather not take a starting pitcher, but the market made me do it. I like all six of the starters taken around Tanaka - deGrom, Carrasco, Hamels, G Cole, and K Maeda. I like Tanaka's elite WHIP even if he doesn't have an elite K%. Now if I can convince the Red Sox and Yankees not to put Sale and Tanaka on the mound to face each other, I will be happy.
7.01.97 Fernando Rodriguez, RP, DET
Oh, the closer run! Coming into the season, I liked 12 closers and really intended to draft one of them. Watching the draft unfold, it was looking like I would. Unfortuately, it is obvious this year that there are not many talented closers and everyone wants at least one, Guru and Holt are gluttons and insisted on two. Coming out of the turn, only three closers had gone off the board. Eleven get picked in between my picks. I was driving to my local roto draft and had to pull off on the side of the road at a sketchy gas station to park and look at my phone. It felt like I was making a drug deal, I knew I HAD to have a closer, but all the known commodities were taken, so instead I had to settle for some dingy white powder in a ziplock bag and hope for the best. I was hoping for Cody Allen, my last of the twelve, but no. That left me to choose from KRod, Tony Watson, or AJ Ramos. I have fond memories of KRod as a rookie for the Angels in the World Series a billion years ago. He had a solid year for the Tigers, what the hell, I hope this stuff doesn't kill me.
|
|
| | | 58 | mmikulka
ID: 1122060
Mon, Mar 20, 2017, 00:45
|
7.07 David Robertson – RP, CHW
Todd Frazier was the other player that I had debated taking in round 6, and he was still available. It was really tempting to take him, but having passed on RPs each of the last two rounds, I really felt the need to draft my second closer here before my options were a complete mess.
At this point, there's some risk involved with any of the remaining closers, and that certainly applies to Robertson, whose 2016 was much worse than his previous seasons. While he probably has a fairly long leash due to his past performance and hefty contract, if his pitching drops another level, there's enough relief talent behind him that he could potentially lose his role as closer. There's also the threat Robertson gets traded at the deadline, possibly becoming a setup man rather than a closer.
However, I think it's at least as likely that his 2016 was an outlier and he returns to being the elite pitcher he was from 2013-2015.
My guess is that he has a slight bounce-back season, something like 3.40/1.18. Either way, he's a pretty safe bet for a 10+ K/9 for the 10th straight year.
8.10 Evan Longoria – 3B, TB
As expected, Frazier was taken in the 18 picks between my 7th+8th rounders. I took a good long look at Ben Zobrist, who had been my top MI remaining for a while, but there were a few other MI out there that I also liked.
When Maikel Franco got taken the pick before me, that left Longoria as the only remaining 3B that I trust.
I'm not expecting him to repeat last year's numbers, but he's been a very consistent and secure option even after his glory years: over the past 4 seasons, Longoria has averaged .328/.465 with 82 R and 88 RBI.
Unfortunately, Longoria's not going back to the days where he walked 10-14 percent of the time. That walk rate has gone down for 5 consecutive years. It has to balance out and bounce back up this year, right?
|
|
| | | 59 | youngroman
ID: 57047243
Mon, Mar 20, 2017, 05:12
|
7.06 Cole Hamels, SP, TEX
after picking so many hitters in the last few rounds it is finally time to address my pitching. starters have 3-times more impact on most categories than closers, so I only thought about SP's. and I also don't like to pick at the end of a closer run. the remaining 2 SP's that I targeted for this pick were Hamels and Quintana.
Hamels has a track record of 7 consecutive seasons with 200+ IP and produces around 1 strikeout per inning. thats a lot of K's and probably the most of all remaining pitchers.
Quintana is doing something similar for 4 seasons. a bit less K's but with better ERA.
In the end I took the K's over ERA. later in the draft or during the season it is easier to find pitchers with a good ERA than to find one with a good strikeout-rate.
|
|
| | | 60 | mailedfoot
ID: 531322718
Mon, Mar 20, 2017, 06:47
|
Jackie Bradley, OF, BOS
Over his last 230 games, Bradley has posted a .340/.490 mark with plenty of counting stats. At 27 he should be in his prime and plays in the AL East parks so I take him as my second outfielder. I’m basically counting on him to do more of the same, helping to build a solid offense, and filling in my OF, which can be a thin position in this league.
|
|
| | | 61 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 38261518
Mon, Mar 20, 2017, 09:02
|
7.10 Addison Russell, SS, CHC
Another pick directed at youth and upside. Everyone knows how difficult it is to find MI who don’t drain ratios. Russell offers decent pop and hitting in a good lineup should help keep his counting stats stable. A repeat of last year should be safe but the potential for more is certainly in play. This is a little early for him but I saw him go at 8.03 in another draft and two teams after me have SS needs. Not sure if he would have made it back. I have a few SP in mind but am hopeful one of them will last until my next pick.
|
|
| | | 62 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 38261518
Mon, Mar 20, 2017, 09:04
|
8.07 Danny Duffy, SP, KC
I end up with my top SP choice heading into round 7 so I guess I shouldn’t complain. Still, looking at the way the draft has played out in the last few rounds, I’ve started debating if I wouldn’t have been better off with deGrom in round 5 instead of Hanley and UNDRAFTED PLAYER (Mark Trumbo) here instead. It would have been nice to cheer for deGrom, but oh well. As for Duffy, I think he makes for a solid SP2. Good K numbers and ace quality stuff. I’m banking on the permanent move to the rotation allows him to develop and help solidify my ratios. Also considered Quintana.
|
|
| | | 63 | twilson
ID: 2221181
Mon, Mar 20, 2017, 14:16
|
4.13 Jose Bautista, OF, TOR
As this pick approached, I was really hoping JD Martinez would be here, but it wasn’t meant to be. I pretty much explored the entire offensive spectrum for this pick, shortstop being the only exception due to lack of value. The top 3B all have their positives (Seager, Beltre, Rendon). 2B offers the speed of Dee Gordon and the multi-cat production of DJ LeMahieu, who I like better than his ADP. I do already have Dozier and feel that it is a deep position, though.
I could also take the veteran discount on Jose Bautista or Hanley Ramirez. Hanley rebounded very well in 2016 and offers upside beyond that level if he can be healthier. DHing should help with that, though he’s currently unable to throw well enough to play the field. Bautista is not what he used to be, but he still knows how to hit the ball hard and draw a walk. I hate the popups and the vulnerability to shifting as well as an increasing number of strikeouts, but he’ll stay useful for at least one more year.
My final option is Justin Upton. His plate discipline leaves a lot to be desired, but the power is substantial. When he gets on one of his hot streaks, he’s as productive as anyone in all of baseball. From the look of spring training, 2017 may begin very well indeed.
I still see enough depth at second and third to pass for now, so I’ll take an offensive anchor. Bautista’s name is at the top of pretty much all the projections I’m looking at, so he is the pick. Upton was a close second.
5.04 Edwin Diaz, RP, SEA
My original plan was to take Hanley here, but right before the selection I found out about his shoulder woes. Though he’s still having a good spring at the plate, I’d rather not take on a concern like that if I can help it. He remained in consideration until the very end despite this drawback, but it was ultimately too much for me.
I don’t want to double up on outfielders, so I’m going to pass on Upton. That leaves Beltre from my list at 4.13. He’s even older than Bautista at 38, but seemingly avoided the perils of age to put up an even better year than usual in 2016.
Now could also be a good time to grab a second pitcher. Some good starters are available, but I just can’t justify it after my Kershaw opening. I’m guessing that a major closer run will happen prior to my next pick. There’s a chance that an elite guy I like will make it back to me, but my gut tells me otherwise. If I do take a closer, there are many names to consider. Melancon is the next guy up by ADP. He’s as safe as they come in terms of role but lacks the Ks of the other elite names. Seung Hwan Oh was a valuable contributor to my RIBC squad last year. He’s a top swing and miss guy with a half year under his belt in the 9th inning. Wade Davis closes for the best team in baseball and is a fantastic pitcher in his own right, but his injuries and a dropping K rate have raise questions about future performance. Switch dropping Ks to increasing BBs in that sentence and you’ve got Craig Kimbrel.
Edwin Diaz was the hot young thing last year, rising from single A to strike out 40% of the MBLB batters he faced. As good as he was, there is upside in his WHIP due to a .377 BABIP. I doubt he’ll match his K/BB ratio in 2017, but the stuff seems to be there to justify a continued presence in the elite tier.
That closer run is definitely going to happen, so I’m going to grab my preferred guy from the second tier. I was originally leaning Oh as the best combination of talent, track record, and health, but another look at hard hit % dropped him below Melancon and Diaz. That made it an upside vs. security battle, and I sided with the ceiling of Diaz.
|
|
| | | 64 | jdrenbarger
Dude
ID: 04035768
Mon, Mar 20, 2017, 14:37
|
7.03 Miller, Andrew - CLE - RP
Another two closers (Familia and Rodriguez) selected in the four picks between mine, and I may well regret not taking another closer here. Wasn’t impressed at this point in the draft with any of the available choices other than Ramos, though, and I rode that ride last year (albeit pretty successfully). ADP results suggested that Miller wouldn’t make it back to me by my next pick, the notion of handcuffing Allen (at least in terms of usage ... no telling what Francona will do if Allen goes down) was somewhat appealing, and he’ll help a lot in Ks and ratios if he comes anywhere close to his aggregate stats over the past three years (14.8 K/9IP, 1.81 ERA, 0.78 WHIP). With a nod to part of the rationale for Jansen being selected in the middle of the third round (aside from a bonus of very many saves at all), I’m pretty optimistic that I’ll like this selection when it’s all said and done.
8.14 Trumbo, Mark - BAL - OF
I’ve been waiting for Trumbo to go for awhile now – I still haven’t found ADP results showing him making it on average beyond our fifth round, and have only looked at one set of draft results (RIBC AAA/ESPN) with him making it into our seventh round. I truly don’t need a third OF this early, having filled only two of six CI/MI starting slots, but I’m also already lagging almost everyone else in SLG. Thought about Kipnis here as well, but I’m unwilling to sign up this early for the uncertainty about when he’ll make it onto the field. A 2016 stat line of 94/108/2/.316/.533 and similar 2017 projections make Trumbo seem very undervalued to me at this point – the OBP hit notwithstanding.
|
|
| | | 65 | youngroman
ID: 57047243
Mon, Mar 20, 2017, 16:03
|
8.11 Sam Dyson, RP, TEX
this year there are a lot of teams that did not yet decide which of their relievers will be the closer at the start of the season. when combined that with the teams that go with a committee I see 10 teams whose closer should be avoided this early. the available closers that seem to be settled are Dyson and Feliz. both do not have the greatest stats (Dyson missing the K's, Feliz ERA was not great the last 2 seasons), but as long as they contribute in the saves category they should do fine. Dyson has less question marks so I took him here. If Feliz makes it back to me I may take him at 9.06
9.06 Neftali Feliz, RP, MIL
all teams that are planning to compete in saves try to get at least 2 closers. as said in my last rationale I had 1 "safe" closer remaining on my list after my last pick. he was not taken, so I took him. I did not expect him to survive another 20 picks. 2 teams are without a closer, so either they plan to compete without or they are taking scrubs later on.
to Feliz: its his job to lose. a few years ago he was a solid closer, the last few seasons he was no closer and stats were not extraordinary. hopefully the stats come back now that he has the job. if not he at least should put up 30+ saves. the same wish you have for every closer that you draft.
|
|
| | | 66 | kdl212
ID: 51152323
Mon, Mar 20, 2017, 16:30
|
7.13 Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS
I probably should have waited until the 9th to pick up a second baseman, but Pedroia should score a ton of runs atop the Boston lineup with a high OBP. Also considered Zobrist, but felt that there are not enough at-bats to go around for all the Cubbies.
8.04 Khris Davis, OF, OAK
The first pick I wanted back quickly after making it. I was feeling light on slugging, and Davis and Trumbo seemed like the last 2 guys who could slug 500 left on the board. Unfortunately, both are OBP black holes. And there were so many outfielders still on the board. Davis's second half from last year (330/580) lured me in. I'd be pleased to get 320/500 out of the 8th round.
|
|
| | | 67 | ksoze
ID: 7141224
Mon, Mar 20, 2017, 18:28
|
7.15 - Herrera, Odubel - OF - PHIL
I wanted to fill a need on O, mostly address a category I'm light in, and choose a SP with my next two picks. I figured I had enough options at SP to wait through the turn to choose one, so I took Herrera here, mainly due to his decent OBP and, more importantly, the likelihood that he'll swipe 25 - 30 bases, a category I haven't targeted yet. I had a few other hitters in mind, though none that should combine a +/- .350 OBP with Herrera's SB potential, plus a +/- 140 runs/RBI total.
8.02 - Lance McCullers - SP - HOU
Big gamble here taking him this early, one that, if it pays off, will net a good WHIP/ERA, a decent amount of wins with a good supporting cast, and tons of K's. Duffy, Quintana and Teheran were the others I considered but I'm hoping the upside for McCullers makes him worth the leap right here. Of course, he came out of his ST start injured a few hours after I chose him, but it turns out it was a shoe issue, nothing related to the shoulder/elbow issues of his past. ***knocks on wood***
|
|
| | | 68 | mailedfoot
ID: 531322718
Mon, Mar 20, 2017, 18:57
|
8.12 Jose Quintana, SP, CHW
With this pick, I felt like I had a few different options and no feel for which would be best. I selected Quintana as my second starter because he has been a solid (even underrated) starter now for a couple of years. He projects for 200 IP, 8 K/9, and decent ratios. This was kind of a vanilla pick but fills in my SP and allows me to see what happens on the turn.
|
|
| | | 69 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Mon, Mar 20, 2017, 19:21
|
8.16.128 Tony Watson, RP, PIT - I was seriously considering taking Mark Trumbo with pick 7.01 and was salivating as I watched him drop and drop. I figured I could pair him with Zobrist and that two headed monster would be formidable, but JD got the bargain. I wasn’t very enthusiastic about KRod being my first closer, but I kind of liked the sound of having two top-20 closers. Tony Watson was my second choice behind KRod, so to see him last 32 picks was great. Only four RPs came off the board. It looks like two teams have punted saves. Maybe I should have grabbed a SS like Andrus, who was outstanding last year with a 803 OPS and 24 steals. Those steals will be wasted on Boozer’s team. Hey, Boozer, you can only get 16 points in steals, no gold medals for having the most steals in league history! I like each SP taken in the seventh and eight round except I wouldn’t take a flier on David Price this early.
9.01.129 Ben Zobrist, 2B, CUBS – This guy gets mass props from the SABR community yet in our neck of the woods he seems undervalued. He had the twelfth highest OBP of all returning players. His SLG% is not terrible for a second baseman, he scores plenty of runs, he has a history of good health.
Let’s play the game of Guess Who is Player B. Here are two players average per 600 plate appearances from last year. I choose this ratio because I believe these two players will probably have a very similar amounts of PAs in 2017.
Ben Zobrist 90/73/6 .386/450 (runs/RBI/SB)
Player B 94/66/7 .359/457
I’ll give you a hint, he was drafted early in the third round… It’s George Springer, an outfielder. I figure I can pair Zobrist with a high slugging low OBP batter and come out ahead.
|
|
| | | 70 | Bmd
ID: 825715
Mon, Mar 20, 2017, 21:28
|
6.09 Carlos Carrasco, SP, CLE
High risk pick time. The dreaded swollen elbow. I feel like he slipped because of this. However, I saw something I really liked that made me feel a little more secure. A day or two before I drafted him he had a MRI and it came back clean. Carlos has top 5 starter stuff. I'd be ecstatic with 150 innings. I'd rather roll the dice on a starter who could be elite rather than a starter that has no shot at being elite but has less injury risk.
7.08 Gerrit Cole, SP, PIT
My 3rd in a trio of SP picks. I usually fade starting pitchers but I couldn't resist getting another potential top 10 starter. If he pitches like 2016 this will be a dud but if he pitches like 2015 it'll be a steal. I like to think 2 out of my 3 pitchers will exceed expectations. Even if they just produce based on projections I've solidified 4 of the 5 pitching categories.
|
|
| | | 71 | Dave R
ID: 442121620
Mon, Mar 20, 2017, 23:04
|
9.11 David Dahl OF Col
I've had my eye on Dahl for a bit, This seems about the right time. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think he might have gone earlier if not slated to open the season in the injured list.
None the less, he becomes my first true OFer. Last season in only 63 games he posted an OPS of .859, scored 42 runs, with 7 HR's and 5 stolen bases. Just a small sample for sure, but room to grow.
10.06 Kevin Gausman SP Bal
Looks like Gausman might be the opening day starter for the Orioles, and I need another starting pitcher. Kevin was solid last year , striking out nearly a batter per inning, with decent ratios.
Last year was Gausman's first full season in the bigs,and, at only 26 years old I see plenty of opportunity for improvement.
|
|
| | | 72 | holt
ID: 57232523
Tue, Mar 21, 2017, 11:58
|
7.16 Contreras, Willson C CHC
I took 4 pitchers in the first 6 rds, so I figured I needed to pick up a couple of solid bats on this turn. Contreras was one of the best options available in terms of projected OPS. I don't usually draft catchers early but the other available hitters just weren't blowing me away.
|
|
| | | 73 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 38261518
Tue, Mar 21, 2017, 12:22
|
9.10 Adam Eaton, OF, WAS
Looking over my team’s projections, I’d like to add Runs, OBP and steals. I’ve had my eye on Eaton since my last pick. He sorts to the top for those stats without hurting the others too much. Would love his SLG to be a bit higher, but if it was, he wouldn’t be available here. 3 OF’s were picked before this and I followed suit, not realizing that 5 more would be picked in succession after this. At the time of the pick, my other thought was RP and SP. I’m glad I went with OF, as Eaton’s skills fit my team needs and I ended up with the RP I wanted anyway.
|
|
| | | 74 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 38261518
Tue, Mar 21, 2017, 18:20
|
10.07 Cam Bedrosian, RP, LAA
Obviously, I don’t have any closers on my roster as yet. Maybe this pick isn’t a clear solution to that but UNDRAFTED istunk it up last year. Other UNDRAFTED also stinks. Bedrosian has a clear path to the closer role and has the skills to keep the position long term. Ratio regressions are likely, but that’s only because they were so low last year. I’m hoping I have a competent closer here at a significant discount. If not, I have a contributor in the other pitching cats. If still not, then I stink.
|
|
| | | 75 | jdrenbarger
ID: 132592118
Tue, Mar 21, 2017, 20:02
|
9.03 Miller, Brad – TAM – SS
I had hoped either Andrus or Nunez would still be around; SS is now really picked over and my investment in 3 OF has left me further behind on both MI and CI than I’d like to be at this point. I think Miller’s a solid pick – SS/1B eligible and likely to pick up 2B eligibility fairly quickly, 2016 stats of 73/81/6/.304/.482 and 2017 projections that are generally in line with that. Another OBP hit for sure, but only 27 and I much prefer him to the SS options I’ll have to pick from if I pass on him now.
10.14 Baez, Javier – CHC – 3B
I really wanted Betances and either Swanson or Baez with my two picks on this turn; Swanson going immediately prior and my (incorrect – he went with the next pick) assessment that Betances would be more likely to last four more picks led me to draft Baez. 3B/2B/SS-eligible and widely expected to exceed 500 AB even without a starting position to call his own; 2016 stats of 50/59/12/.314/.423 and generally modest increases projected for 2017 make him a reasonably balanced choice from among, particularly, the MI available at this point … and I really like the positional flexibility that he gives me. Only 24, he'll be a star someday soon ... probably not this year, though.
|
|
| | | 76 | ksoze
ID: 7141224
Tue, Mar 21, 2017, 20:11
|
9.15 - Holliday, Matt - OF - NYY
Figured I'd target a hitter and pitcher with my next two picks. I didn't see any RP's I thought worthy of taking at this point in the draft and had enough SP's in mind that I could wait a couple of extra picks to choose one. Was really hoping Brad Miller would make it back to this pick, and to a lesser extent, Adam Eaton. With them gone I went with Holliday who will hopefully be renewed a bit with the opportunity to DH a bunch, so I'm counting on an OPS above .800 and upwards of 160 runs/RBI, pretty good value at this point in the draft.
10.02 - Teheran, Julio - SP ATL
Again, with no RP high up on my current pitcher list I went with a SP; Keuchel, King Felix, Porcello and Matz were also on radar; I went with Teheran due to his likely good ratios, hopefully better than 2016 as he enters his age 26 season, increased win total (with a no longer rebuilding, maybe even improving team behind him) and a reasonable chance at throwing a bit more than 200 innings which should mean 175+ K's.
|
|
| | | 77 | mailedfoot
ID: 531322718
Tue, Mar 21, 2017, 20:33
|
9.05 Ryon Healy, 3B, OAK
I had strongly considered Jake Lamb with my 8.12 pick but finally decided he may still be there for my round 9 pick. This was wishful thinking as he was taken at 8.13 and left me with 3B options winding down. With 23 picks until I pick again, I selected Healy who posted a .337/.524 line after being called up last year. There are questions as to whether he can duplicate this, but based on reports that he made a swing change prior to last year, I feel like he may be the best bet of the remaining 3B options.
10.12 Kole Calhoun, OF, LAA
I took Calhoun as my third outfielder here, looking for some solid production without exposing myself to any glaring weaknesses. He projects for about .335/.435 with plenty of counting stats but, alas, no SBs. I sort of wish I had done something flashier with this pick, but hopefully slow and steady wins the race.
|
|
| | | 78 | Bmd
ID: 825715
Tue, Mar 21, 2017, 21:44
|
8.09 Maikal Franco, 3B, Phi
I don't really like this pick but felt I needed a 3B and all the other guys were old guys that had very little upside with more injury risk involved or they had major question marks(Baez). Franco is only 24 years old. It's reasonable to expect some upward movement in his numbers from last year. I don't expect superstar number but he should be decent in the counting stats and a hopefully a plus in Slg.
9.08 Joc Pederson, OF, LAD
Mashed righties. Has a high walk rate and might have some SBs in him(he stole bases in the minors). Might platoon which will hurt his counting stats but at the outfield position I can rotate a waiver wire guy to pick up the starts he'll miss.
10.09 Logan Forsythe, 2B, LAD
My first pick that isn't "young". I've been eyeing 2B for awhile but couldn't pull the trigger on Kipnis in an earlier round because of his injury. Forsythe has a very nice floor. He should be a decent steady option at 2B without dragging down my percentages. There's been talk he could lead off which would be great for his value.
|
|
| | | 79 | mmikulka
ID: 1122060
Tue, Mar 21, 2017, 21:53
|
9.07 Eric Thames – OF/(1B), MIL
I was really struggling with this pick. Luckily, so was twilson, so I had plenty of time to think it over. Zobrist had been my preferred MI option: once he was chosen, I started looking at the other MIs who stood out to me: Kipnis, Tulowitzki, and Neil Walker.
Losing Kipnis for the first 2-3 weeks of the season didn't bother me very much. However, I got scared off by the potential for it to affect his ability. When he played through a lingering injury in 2014, he hit .310/.330. Oof.
Walker is much safer and a perennial favorite of mine. I think I've owned him 3 or 4 times out of the last 5 years. He's boring, though, getting old, and it seems to me like the only way for him to go from last year is down.
Tulowitzki is obviously not the player he once was, but maybe that's causing everybody to undervalue him, because he has still had an OPS over .760 each of the past two years and he's being drafted later than the likes of Jose Peraza and Brad Miller. I decided that he's my top MI choice.
First I needed to compare him to my pitching options. In the bizarro world of lower-tier closers, Neftali Feliz seemed to be the consensus for safest option remaining. Last year was his best season since 2011 by a landslide, and his FIP was 4.53. I don't trust him.
I decided my top RP choice was Cam Bedrosian. Besides being Armenian, he seemed like he had a lot of upside, and his primary competition is always injured. I was close to taking him, but the more I looked into him, the more red flags popped up. Besides being terrible until last year, I'm concerned Bedrosian might not be the Angels' preferred closer anyway, at least until he gets through his 2018 arbitration.
So Tulowitzki it is... but wait: I have more time to overoveranalyze because twilson is still debating, and I realize that this might be my last opportunity to draft Eric Thames.
ESPN graciously lists Thames as an OF, and he will quickly gain 1B eligibility. That dual eligibility could be quite handy since I'm missing a CI and only have 1 OF.
He's a much more fun and exciting pick than either of the creaky old MI I was considering. And if I was going to have an element of risk no matter what, I might as well shoot high and go for the massive upside.
His Korean triple slash was .347/.448/.714
I expect the MLB competition will be tougher, so I'll project him for .330/.425/.650
In all seriousness, his projections from Steamer and ZIPS both have him with an OPS over .810, strong R+RBI totals, and 10+ SB.
10-12 steals from a 30 year old 1B seems wrong at first glance, but I wouldn't be shocked if that SB total is even higher: he stole 40 bases on 48 attempts in 2015, and the Brewers attempted steals wayyyy more than any other MLB team last year.
Hopefully he's more Jose Abreu than Byung-ho Park. He's certainly in a great stadium, and he's on a team that is likely to be patient with him if he initially struggles. The farther away I've gotten from this pick, the happier I've been with it, especially just now when I noticed Steamer upped Thames' OBP/SLG projection to .350/515.
10.10 Troy Tulowitzki – SS, TOR
Tulowitzki stuck around and the RP options weren't decimated, so this was an easy decision for me.
2 years ago, the idea of getting Tulo with pick #154 would have seemed ridiculous. Even last year, he was a 4th rounder.
And while his 1.033 OPS in 2014 is a long-since-faded memory, he's still a shortstop with an above-average bat in a great lineup in a hitters' park.
Health is a major concern, of course, but since when do we expect our MI options in the 10th round to have 140+ games of quality production?
|
|
| | | 80 | holt
ID: 57232523
Wed, Mar 22, 2017, 03:26
|
8.01 Benintendi, Andrew OF BOS
There's talk that Benintendi will hit 3rd in the order, which would be spectacular (assuming he can fulfill the projections which have him around .340/.460). He also has a chance of grabbing around 15 SB, and that was a large factor in my decision. I'm lagging in the SB category and 10 or 15 SB's here or there makes a difference.
I had considered Peraza and Nunez here due to SB potential, but couldn't pull the trigger. 7th/8th rd felt too early and I've drafted so many pitchers that I wanted to start loading up on OPS more than SB's. I also considered Lamb but thought there was a chance he might stick around a bit longer. Zobrist, Dahl, and Piscotty were also on my radar, but you can only draft one guy per round, so... Thames was on my much more distant radar. I figured people would play chicken with him til much later. Ah well.
9.16 144 Kipnis, Jason 2B CLE
The pickings are slim when you wait til 9.16 to look for a middle infielder. I had a feeling for several rds that I'd be the one to end up drafting Kipnis. He should help me make up a little ground in steals and if he turns in a typical Kipnis season then I'll have a 3rd/4th rd quality player with pick #144. Crossing my fingers that he only misses the first 2/3 weeks of the season.
10.01 145 Hill, Rich SP LAD
I probably could have used another bat here but Hill was too much for me to pass on. I knew he wouldn't be available in rd 11, and I definitely want him on my roster, so there you go. Even if he only turns in 140 innings, I'll take it. His durability is very much in question but he feels like a threat to toss a no hitter every time he takes the mound. I don't know how a guy stinks his whole career and then in his mid thirties suddenly becomes one of the best pitchers in the world, but that is Rich Hill.
|
|
| | | 81 | youngroman
ID: 57047243
Wed, Mar 22, 2017, 08:59
|
10.11 Aaron Sanchez, SP, TOR
first decision was between pitcher or hitter. I could use a SS/MI or OF. looked at the available options. there are some similar SS, but none of them is a must have. if they fall to me in the next few rounds its ok though. I am also lacking in SB's, but looking at the options at OF was not very appealing. I guess I need to search for some gems late in the draft for this purpose.
with no hitter standing out, I looked at pitchers. I either wanted one with multiple good seasons or a new talent in its 1st or 2nd season. someone who had a 4+ ERA last season and is projected for a sub-3.8 ERA this season won't make it at this point. with that criteria, the options are really thin for established pitchers and based on the ADP none of them is drafted this early. the 2nd category are the potential "stars" of tomorrow, like Taillon, Sanchez, Fulmer or Matz. at this point I like the upside of Sanchez the most.
11.06 Marcus Semien, SS, OAK
I am one of the last teams to draft a SS. I had Swanson on top of my list, but he was taken a few picks ago. other SS on my list included Semien and Crawford. I had Semien higher because of his youth and the better career averages. and probably also because of a few more steals. I also wish that he performs as good as the 1st half of 2016, but for a full season. this would be good for 38 HR and a .477 SLG. not bad for a SS.
|
|
| | | 82 | Dave R
ID: 442121620
Wed, Mar 22, 2017, 10:56
|
11.11 Byron Buxton OF Min
Buxton possesses outstanding power and speed, both of which I could use more of. Locked in as the Twins CF'er, Buxton looks to build on his strong finish last year where he posted an outstanding OPS of 1.011 while slugging 10 HR's, scoring 24 runs with 22 RBI's in only 29 games
Maybe now is the time for the former top prospect to take it to the next level
|
|
| | | 83 | jdrenbarger
Dude
ID: 04035768
Wed, Mar 22, 2017, 12:45
|
11.03 Porcello, Rick – BOS – SP
As recently as last spring, I’d have been more likely to say “I’m going to wear a lampshade to work” than I would’ve been to say “I’m going to consider drafting Rick Porcello” – during six years in Detroit, he had one sub 3.95 ERA year, one (different) sub 1.28 WHIP year, and an aggregate 5.49 K/9 IP. His first year in Boston was even worse – 4.92/1.36, albeit with a significant spike in K/9 IP (7.8). And then last year happened – 3.15/1.01/7.6 (and 22 W) over a career-high 223 IP. In the 11th round (roughly three rounds later, on average, than he’s going in other drafts and a round later than he was last taken amongst the other three RIBC drafts) and with only 1 SP rostered, I’m buying in. The widespread consensus is that last year’s results were due to a skills change that should persist into this year, and even some modest regression from last year should still produce solid results across all four categories.
12.14 Anderson, Tim – CWS – SS
My first pick that I’m having a really hard time getting excited about, and in retrospect a mistake – I’d counted on Moustakas being available here and Kendrys Morales was my plan B ... and they each went in the two picks immediately preceding mine. Thought about one of the very middling should/could be closers here, but elected to fill my 5th IF position with a nice upside, if not yet at all polished, young hitter ... OF and SP options I believe will be available in another 32 picks are a lot more attractive to me at this point than are IF options. Simply put, though, he helps me most in the category I’m already strongest in (SB) and Castellanos, among others, would have been a better choice (and particularly in RBI/SLG and given the current construction of my roster). Best case, since he’s only 23, is that he outperforms expectations this year as he begins to mature a little as a hitter – he to date only has 410 ML AB (57/30/10/.306/.432 last year).
13.03 Maurer, Brandon – SDG – RP
Had already decided I’d look for saves on this turn, and was considering Iglesias, Maurer, Kintzler and Glover. Iglesias went on the pick immediately before mine, and I settle on Maurer as he pitches in a big park, strikes out far more than Kintzler, and seems to be the guy who’ll have the job to start the year.
There are no good choices for saves at this point, though, and I’ll be looking for them throughout the year with only one solid closer on my roster. Maurer’s career line of 4.85/1.34 is not a reason for optimism; perhaps he can return to his 2015 3.00/1.06 form and both lock down and then hold the position. There won’t be many wins in San Diego, but most of them should be close games with save opportunities.
|
|
| | | 84 | twilson
ID: 2221181
Wed, Mar 22, 2017, 14:15
|
6.13 Kyle Schwarber, OF, CHI
Three picks away from Justin Upton. Darn!
I was completely right about the closer run, as I would’ve missed it by at least 5 picks. Now, nobody really stands out to me. Andrew Miller does, actually, but three pitchers in the first six rounds is definitely overkill. Otherwise, I am considering SS, 3B, and OF.
At short, I could go with Aledmys Diaz. He came out of nowhere (undrafted in any RIBC league) to have a fantastic first half and still useful second half last year, with babip being the primary driver of the difference. I’m not expecting him to match 2016, but he doesn’t have to at this price. If I wait on SS, I’m probably looking at Elvis Andrus next time around or maybe Tulowitski. The steals of Andrus would be quite helpful, though.
Third base has many possibilities here. Todd Frazier has dropped by ADP, but boy do I hate the way he hits. So many popups and an extreme pull slant make his margin for error very slim. I can’t deny his track record of health and prowess in the counting stats, however. I could also take Longoria, Lamb or Franco. Longoria did a great job ramping up the power last year, but everything else is declining. Franco did not meet expectations in 2016, but his promise remains intact and the price is cheaper. Jake Lamb is another risk/reward pick. He took a big leap last offseason and had a monster first half, but he cratered after the all-star break. Was it because of a hand injury or simply the league catching up with him? If the latter, can he make the necessary adjustments?
The two outfielders of interest here are Schwarber and Khris Davis. I owned Davis last year as a 14th rounder, and I enjoyed the experience. He offers the most power of anyone left on the board. I wouldn’t mind a second go round, even if the price has increased. Schwarber provides more balanced production. He’s apparently going to leadoff for the Cubs, which could mean a huge PA count. Of course, that requires him to be and stay healthy, which is a major concern after the damage done to his knee.
I decided to go with a wisdom of the crowd approach and take Schwarber. There are enough 3B that I can wait, and the outfielders contribute more to the bottom line than the shortstops will.
7.04 Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC
No more Diaz and Miller after the turn, but I still have options. Frazier is still making me wonder if I should grit my teeth and accept his flawed approach into the fold, but I really don’t want to. The other 3B are viable picks, but I may be able to snag one next time around (especially Lamb). Andrus makes more sense at 8.13, assuming he’s still around by then.
I took another look through the player pool and found Eric Hosmer at 1B. He’s been remarkably consistent throughout his career, including a strong history of health. He strikes the ball well and avoids popups. On the negative side, he is among the league leaders in groundball rate. If he can begin to elevate some of those grounders while maintaining the rest of his profile, he will experience outsized power growth. The fact that he hasn’t done so six years into his career doesn’t bode well, but I’m hoping that a look around the league at the success of others around the league have flipped a switch in his mind.
I cannot get myself to take Frazier. It was just an unpleasant experience owning him last year, and I don’t wish to relive it. I’ve already got my share of popups with Dozier and Bautista. On the flip side, I also can’t take another third baseman over him. That leaves Hosmer. I’d like to own a hitter with his approach, and I’ve missed out on all the others thus far. Here I find a chance to rectify that, though I have my doubts on his desire to change. Hosmer it is.
|
|
| | | 85 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Wed, Mar 22, 2017, 14:17
|
10.16.160 Pujols, Albert - LAA - 1ST
Having taken four pitchers with my first nine picks, I intended to take two bats at this turn. I don't have a first baseman, only Fosten can say that as well, and no first baggers have come off the board in three rounds. I like Adrian Gonzalez and Mike Napoli, I would have taken either of them had they fallen. With them off the board, my queue looks like this - Tulo, Aaron Sanchez, Pujols and Lo Cain. I need a shortstop, too, and the pickings are slim.
I'm really getting ticked off that all y'all are letting catchers slide. There is a very strange NINE outfielder run in nine picks, thankfully Mr. Cain is not one of them. It starts with Eric Thames. In this crowd, there are no sleepers, not only do we like shiny new things, we like old things that go to Korea and get shiny. I love the Rich Hill, J Teheran, and Gausman picks. When Tulo and Sanchez come off the board, I am down to Pujols and Cain with four picks to go. Fosten is right before me. I would have been flummoxed had one of them come off, Probably would have reached for Aaron Nola cursing my bad luck and thinking I could have grabbed him next time, but in the end I was not and maybe I would have praised this pick at the end of the year.
Albert is 20th all time on the RBI list and has a good shot of being ninth by season's end. He knocked in 119 last year, so even if he has another sub 800 OPS season, he's likely a strong contributor in runs and rbi. He has had over 600 plate appearances each of the last three years, so I am satisfied with him as my first baseman.
11.01.161 Cain, Lorenzo - KC - OF
I put Albert and Cain as the only two in my queue and left work. When I got home and saw that I got them both, I did my first fist pumping happy dance of the draft.
I have been targeting Lorenzo as a great bounce back candidate who should have a decent OPS with a good chance of 25 steals. He also strikes me as a good candidate to get traded mid season and I think this will enhance his production. Leaving KC for just about anywhere will improve his home ballpark. I can imagine him getting traded to Houston and having a Carlos Beltran-like explosion for the rest of his season.
|
|
| | | 86 | holt
ID: 57232523
Wed, Mar 22, 2017, 15:23
|
11.16 176 Walker, Neil 2B NYM
I am shocked and disappointed that D Travis fell to ksoze at 11.15. I would have bet a stack of simoleons that he was going to be on my roster for the third straight year. I only have one MI, Kipnis, and he is starting the season on the DL. I want to draft a 2b or SS this rd but look at the available players and then I don't want to draft one. It's not going to get any better though, so I try to choose a player with an adp high enough to justify taking them in rd 11. Crawford and Anderson were other possibilities I had to look at but Walker is a superior hitter to those two, in my opinion. There's really no reason that he shouldn't have an OPS over .800 again, so at the end of rd 11 I am probably lucky to have Walker as an option. I'm not excited about it but I suppose it is like building a house. You don't need to feel excited about your plumbing. You just need it to be functional and not be bad.
12.01 177 Holland, Greg RP COL
I don't really need another closer but if Holland turns out to be the guy in COL (which it seems that he will) then his value will be much higher than 177 overall, giving me possible trade opportunities in the future. I could draft a bat here, but I can probably get a better one by drafting Holland. Moustakas and Castellanos were on my radar but I just wasn't feeling it. There wasn't much chance that those two would fall to 13.16 but I tried.
Holland was an elite closer with annual K/9 around 13. If he regains his form he could be a top tier closer option this season. It makes much more sense for the Rockies to use Holland in a limited 9th inning role than as a set-up man. I don't believe they signed him to eat innings or pitch in the 7th or 8th inning.
|
|
| | | 87 | kdl212
ID: 43240617
Wed, Mar 22, 2017, 17:08
|
9.13 Carlos Gomez, OF, TEX
Maybe he just hated Houston. He's not that old, and he went berserk in a small sample for Texas at the end of last year. It feels weird to call a 31 year-old an upside pick, but there is a universe in which Gomez goes 330/450 and steals 30 bases with 150 runs+rbi hitting at the top of the Rangers lineup. Unfortunately, that universe is dwarfed by the one in which Gomez goes 290/350 and only plays 75 games.
10.04 Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, LAD
There are always a bunch of enticing corner infield sluggers in the later rounds, and I was leaning toward picking a pitcher here. Indeed, given that I only had 1 starting pitcher, I was leaning toward Dellin Betances to give me some k/9 wiggle room for the scrub starters I will undoubtedly be calling my pitching staff this year. But I kept calling my own bluff and put off pitching for another round or more. Even in his decline, Gonzalez should offer 10th round production at a CI starting slot.
|
|
| | | 88 | kdl212
ID: 43240617
Wed, Mar 22, 2017, 17:21
|
11.13 King Felix Hernandez, SP, SEA
This team I am drafting is an old team. If only this were 2011 (I checked the RIBC 2011 draft. I have 4 of the first 20 picks from that draft on my team). Despite being a Mariners fan since 1984, this is the first time I have ever had King Felix on one of my imaginary baseball teams. This is risky from a fan perspective - it will be harder to deal with real-life struggling Felix if he is also decimating my RIBC team at the same time. But I made a huge profit off Verlander last year in the draft, and am hoping that the Mariners decision to play 7 center fielders at once this year will make up for Felix's diminishing stuff.
12.04 Brendan Crawford, SS, SF
We're very near the "plug your nose and pick" portion of the middle infield. Crawford isn't anything special at the plate, but he plays, and his ratios aren't awful. At this point, that's good enough. Was also considering Kendrys Morales here, but I tend to avoid DH only players. Morales will undoubtedly produce better numbers overall, but I was aiming to avoid a MI black hole this year.
|
|
| | | 89 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Wed, Mar 22, 2017, 18:39
|
12.16.192 Joseph, Tommy - PHIL - 1ST
Tommy Boy!
I can't believe Kendrys Morales is still on the board. Of course the mere fact that he will sit in your UTL slot all season keeps him undrafted, but the same was true of David Ortiz and that monster of a man filled your stat sheet in exchange for your UTIL slot, it was more than a fair trade. I have been cursing TWilson's name all week for taking so damn long each and every time it's his turn, now I have another reason :(
I also coveted Aaron Nola. Would have loved to have drafted Stroman, Paxton, King Felix or Keuchel. Was hoping Crawford would slip to me so I can stop looking at the bottom of the shortstop compost bin.
So when it was my turn, for the first time this draft, I was stumped and my wife called me to dinner. I winnowed it down to Tommy Joseph, one of these OF - Kiermaier, M Ozuna or Hunter Pence. Ozuna and Pence are the same player, similar in all five categories. I need steals and I prefer them coming from someone who will not kill the other four categories. Also on this list was Fulmer and Shoemaker. What I find interesting about these two is that the market clearly prefers Fulmer though just about every projection has them even or Shoemaker slightly better. I typed Shoemaker in to Drafttime, then I message with my buddy and we go over pros and cons. I thought that Fulmer would certainly be gone in the next few picks, but Shoemaker could make it through the next 32.
So I went with two guys who could be called a reach, but I feel pretty sure would not be around by my next pick. Tommy had a very nice 2016 and figures to bat clean up or 5th for the Phils. I like him to beat his projections, still will have a low OBP around 315 but should slug over 500, basically not that different than Mark Trumbo.
13.01.193 Kiermaier, Kevin, TB, OF
I'm expecting a break out for Kiermaier after signing his new contract. He had a nice 330 OBP last season and this being his year 27 season, I could imagine some power increase. 15 of his 21 steals came in the second half last year, so a 25 steal/750 OPS regardless of counting stats is a top 100 player. The numbers Ozuna and Pence provide are available later from other sources. And all that hand-wringing over Fulmer and Shoemaker, well, they go back to back shortly after.
|
|
| | | 90 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 38261518
Wed, Mar 22, 2017, 18:58
|
11.10 Greg Bird, 1B, NYY
I knew I wanted another bat with this pick. I have a list of SP that I am struggling to sort. At least one should make it back to me in round 12 and hopefully my options will have been reduced by the other managers. I narrowed down this pick to a few CI and 2B. It’s too early for my targets at 2B so I’ll have to hope they are available in round 13. That left CI: it came down to Bird and Castellanos, two young players with room for growth. Castellanos has more of a track record but I still worry about his OBP. That he might hit 2nd in the order had me intrigued though. In the end, I chose Bird, despite the obvious concern of a platoon. Even if the platoon becomes the reality, Bird should see the bulk of the playing time. I think he offers more upside with OPS than Castellanos, the short porch in right field suited to his lefty swing. He has had a great spring and though I try to ignore those stats, it becomes harder to do so when a young player shows that he might be ready for the next step.
|
|
| | | 91 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 38261518
Wed, Mar 22, 2017, 19:00
|
12.07 Aaron Nola, SP, PHI
Well, I hated making this pick and that has nothing to do with Nola. I went into this pick targeting a SP, but in the time it took the draft to come back to me, I convinced myself that I HAD TO HAVE a certain offensive player. Taking UNDRAFTED now would be well before his ADP but I was willing to throw that aside. Then, news came in this afternoon that one of everyone’s sleeper closer picks was being looked at more seriously by his manager. (Hey Dusty, be quiet!) So I had to consider taking the sleeper even though I was hoping to target him later.
I agonized, dreamed of magically being gifted 3 consecutive picks, I went back and forth and back again. In the end, I went back to the original plan. There’s a strong chance my “must have player” makes it back to me. And there’s no guarantee that the RP will thrive in the closer role. It’s worth a speculative pick but I already have one of those in round 10. The best value I can give my team is a solid SP#3 with upside. In round 11, I had hoped that my SP options would be thinned; Keuchel and Taillon were taken from my queue. Nola won out from the other 2 under consideration (Fulmer and Shoemaker). Young and primed for a breakout, Nola pitched better than his final numbers (thanks sabermetrics) and there is reason to believe this year sees better results than SP #39, where he was drafted here.
|
|
| | | 92 | mmikulka
ID: 1122060
Wed, Mar 22, 2017, 19:20
|
11.07 Yasiel Puig – OF, LAD
For the 4th round in a row, I found myself debating whether or not to take another closer before deciding that there were a lot of options I viewed equally, that I didn't trust any of them, and they could wait. By this point, my expectation was that I'd eventually take Nate Jones to handcuff Robertson.
Looking at the top batters, it seems like my options are fairly evenly divided between "aging star with above-average stats" and "young unreliable player with high upside".
To me, Puig was a clear outlier in the "upside" group. His disappointing last two seasons are fresh in our memory, but he's still a 26-year-old with unworldly athletic ability and an .833 career OPS.
In the 11th round, the risk of another 350 AB / .740 OPS season is more than balanced out by the chance that he returns to being a top 25 player.
12.10 Shin-Soo Choo – OF, TEX
It's a risky OF party!! My projections have Choo as OF #22, which is clearly a vastly different valuation than the consensus, because I ended up taking him as OF #45, which was still over a round earlier than either AAA league.
He's 34 years old, coming off of an injury-filled season, and will now be DHing most of the time. However, thanks to his massive BB% of 11.9% (right in line with his career average), he still managed to have a .357 OBP last year, and he was on pace for a 20/20 season.
He has had two injury-shortened seasons in his career, and in both cases, his next year brought 685+ PA and an OBP over .370. I'd be surprised if he bounces back that strongly this time, but I'm expecting a solid year with close to 80 runs and an OBP over .350, hopefully still with decent power and a bunch of stolen bases.
|
|
| | | 93 | ksoze
ID: 7141224
Wed, Mar 22, 2017, 20:13
|
12.15 - Travis, Devon - 2B - TOR
I didn't consider anyone else for this pick. After my last one I queued up Travis and Forsythe as potentials to fill my 2B hole, only Travis was left when the draft got back to me. I chose to take him now rather than 3 picks later due to Holt's 2B being out for opening day and fearing he might take another. Travis has a history of injuries but appears ready to play in ST games after seeing minor league action this week. He also had an .842 OPS in his last 80-something games in 2016, so he can rake... and he should bat towards the top of the order, ahead of all those big bats in Toronto.
13.02 - Santana, Domingo - OF Milw
For this pick I was torn between Santana or a pitcher. I considered a C for a few seconds but decided if I were going to go for O, I'd get better potential production from Santana so I dismissed that thought quickly. On the SP side I was considering Taillon, Ross and Fulmer, in that order. For RP's it was Maurer and Iglesias. I still didn't want to spend this pick on such iffy closing options, and counted on getting an SP with my next round of picks (I was happy to get Ross with one of them), and REALLY didn't want to be looking at a lineup that was 42% pitching after 12 picks. In about half a season's worth of games in 2016 Santana's OPS was .807. Again I'm going with a player with a poor injury history, but the upside of a healthy, full season's worth of Santana could be huge. He's my 4th OF, but the hell with it, we start 4 OF's and his potential output could make him, at age 24, a humungous value half way through the draft. Or, he'll be another injury filled bust. I'm rolling the dice again.
|
|
| | | 94 | mailedfoot
ID: 531322718
Wed, Mar 22, 2017, 23:42
|
11.05 James Paxton, SP, SEA
Paxton becomes my third starter, a guy I was targeting based on his work late last season and the buzz in fantasy circles. The projections have him for about 8.5 K/9, a 3.60 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He was actually much better than that over his last 60 innings of last year, so I am cautiously optimistic he will outperform those numbers. He also needs to stay healthy which has been a bugaboo for him in the past. A little bit of a reach at this draft slot but these are the picks that keep it interesting.
12.12 Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC
I was somewhat surprised Moustakas was still available here and felt like it was a natural pick for my team. He fills the CI spot and provides me with an insurance policy at 3B if Healy happens to struggle. Moustakas missed most of last year with a knee injury but in 2015 he was good for .348/.470 with plenty of counting stats. He’s looked good so far in spring training so I see no reason why he can’t pick up where he left off.
|
|
| | | 95 | beastiemiked
ID: 481162721
Thu, Mar 23, 2017, 00:05
|
11.08 Jim Johnson, RP, ATL
9.46 k/9 3.06 ERA 20 Saves. Please repeat these numbers Jim. I was shocked how well he pitched last year. Maybe others in here wrote him off as well. I know when I started researching for closers I was very surprised at those numbers. I'm a little worried he gets traded if he performs too well but I'm hoping he falls in that sweet spot where he performs just well enough to get 20 saves but not well enough that a team would want him to be their set up man.
12.09 Russell Martin, C, TOR
I drafted Martin last year and he was horrible the 1st half. His 2nd half was much better. I'm hoping that trend can continue. Catching is so thin that I felt getting someone that can contribute in the counting categories and not waste two roster spots on catchers and/or rotate crappy catchers was something I needed to do. Martin should be good enough were I can lock him in as catcher. Still don't feel good about it. If I had to redo this pick I would've selected an corner infield slot. I was hoping Castellanos and/or Moose would slip to me next round.
|
|
| | | 96 | youngroman
ID: 19238238
Thu, Mar 23, 2017, 09:45
|
12.11 Jarrod Dyson, OF, SEA
I am still lacking in OF and SB. the best hitter available is Kendrys Morales. unfortunately he is not a OF and does not steal bases. he isn't eligible at any position. I thought a long time if I should draft him, but did a last minute switch to take care of my SB totals. there are not many players left that get a serious number of stolen bases, so I better take one now than never.
the 2 options I saw draftworthy this round were Jarrod Dyson and Kevin Kiermaier, with Dyson having the potential to steal more bases. Dyson is also shooting lights out this spring, so if any of that power makes it to the reglular season it would be much appreciated. even if it that means he raises his projected SLG from .360 to .390.
13.06 Nicholas Castellanos, 3B, DET
until he broke his hand last season he had averages of around .335 OBP and .510 SLG. if he can continue to play like that he would be a steal. projections have him in the range of .315/.420 which is about his career average. at age 25 I hope he can improve his career numbers towards the numbers he put up in 2016.
|
|
| | | 97 | mailedfoot
ID: 27912109
Thu, Mar 23, 2017, 11:02
|
13.05 Brandon Kintzler, RP, MIN
There are still a few saves out there to be had and, after looking over the possibilities, I take Kintzler who has the closer job for the Twins to start the season. A sinkerballer, he won't contribute many Ks but has respectable ratios and this pick is all about the saves really. Considered Glover and Madson but their situations seem to be a little less secure at the moment.
|
|
| | | 99 | youngroman
ID: 19238238
Thu, Mar 23, 2017, 18:01
|
14.11 Mitch Haniger, OF, SEA
I am still at least one body short at C, MI and OF. The queue up to this pick mainly consisted of outfielders. I had Mazara, Haniger and Granderson in this order. Mazara and Granderson went and I feared that Haniger might go as well. he did not.
Haniger is projected to be the starting right fielder for the Mariners. he shoots lights out this spring with a .412/.464/1.151 incl. 2 HR's and 3 SB's. if only he could extend this streak into the regular season I would be a happy manager. too bad he is only projected to hit .250/.315/.430 and steal only 6 bases. I'll take anything in between.
|
|
| | | 100 | mmikulka
ID: 1122060
Thu, Mar 23, 2017, 19:01
|
13.07 Nate Jones – RP, CHW
Ever since I took Robertson, drafting Nate Jones seemed inevitable. It was only a question of how long I could wait to take him. We were down to the final 2 or 3 closers, and I expected Jones to be one of the first setup men taken, so I grabbed him.
He'll offer excellent K rates and hopefully a great ERA/WHIP while serving as a handcuff. In my ideal scenario, Robertson will get traded to the Nationals at some point and I'll gain a third closer out of the situation.
14.10 Lucas Duda – 1B, NYM
Well, I was going to take Fernando Rodney and sell my soul for some extra saves, but he went the pick before me.
What was I to do? Finally take a 2nd SP? Nope, I couldn't bring myself to do it: Robbie Ray was my top choice and I expected him to still be there next round. I considered the final projected closer, Jeanmar Gomez, but that just seemed like a pick I would regret by early May.
I still needed a starting CI for the first 10+ games (until Thames gains eligibility), and I'd had my eye on Lucas Duda for several rounds.
His 2014 and 2015 were fantastic, but last year he only had 172 PA, missing the bulk of the season with a stress fracture in his back. He returned for a few games in September, and has had the full offseason to put the injury even farther behind him.
He's only 31 and has been doing well in Spring Training. Hopefully he'll return to form or something close to it: he walks over 11% of the time, should hit towards the middle of a decent Mets lineup, and was coming off back to back years of .480+ SLG before the injury.
|
|
| | | 101 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Thu, Mar 23, 2017, 19:04
|
14.16.224 - Roark, Tanner - SP, WAS
At the outset of this draft, I had found myself drawn to SPs who would be drafted in the 200s, so I told myself to be patient this season. I laid a solid foundation by taking four arms with my first eight picks, two top twenty starters and closers. Then I rattled off five straight bats. We are now in the 200s, time for SP. I have previously told you that I coveted Matt Shoemaker, but he was taken at #202. Three starters were taken in the next 22 picks and I only was mildly interested in was Pineda.
I had not been aware of the Tanner Roark phenomenon being out here on the opposite coast. He has had two amazing seasons sandwiching a disappointing 2015. Looking at his results from 2016 - 2.83/1.17 ERA/WHIP 16 wins, 7.3 K/9 and comparing them to his projections - 4.25/1.28 10 wins, 7.5 K/9, something didn't seem right. I then learn that he confounds the SABR community because he is a soft tosser and has seriously outperformed their statistical models. I read another story explaining that Roark is the National's version of Kyle Hendricks, he elicits soft contact and wins because of it.
Maybe because it was broadcast on MLB Network and few of us watched it, I learned that Roark shut down a difficult Japan lineup in the semi-finals of the WBA the night before, yet it didn't make any waves. I was now afraid this feat might pique interest and crossed my fingers. Waiting for Fosten to make his pick, I felt comfortable that he wouldn't take him, I mean, he already had seven arms on his roster - and yet he drafts two more, these, however, of the bullpen type. Happy dancing again.
15.01.225 - Lackey, John - SP - CHC
I knew I would take two SPs on this turn even though I still don't have a SS or a MI. Initially I was not high on Lackey, I thought that he is due for an age-related regression from his outstanding performance in 2016. He had a career high strikeout rate, how often do pitchers do that in their age 37 season? He had a career low BABIP, but some of that may be attributable to the outstanding Cubs defense behind him. On the other hand, he was actually quite unlucky in the wins department, I foresee an improvement in that category this season. So he was my choice. The other SPs behind him on my list were Drew Smyly, Robbie Ray, Sean Manea and one more who has not been drafted yet.
I will say it here, Guru had his first pick that made we wonder aloud, Curtis Granderson?!?! I like David Peralta so much more.
|
|
| | | 102 | jdrenbarger
ID: 132592118
Thu, Mar 23, 2017, 20:00
|
14.14 Solarte, Yangervis – SDG – 3B
I’m past any pretense of drafting best available, regardless of position, at this point and am looking to fill holes in my roster … and this round it’s 3B, having so far only one 3B-eligible player (and he doesn’t even have an everyday job (Baez)). Missing out on Moustakas and passing on Castellanos doesn’t leave much I want to pick from, and I consider Solarte, Suarez, Kang and several others who are still available. I’d love to take a flyer on Kang, but there’s no telling how long it’s going to take him to even make it back into the country. Suarez is appealing mostly due to an expectation of solid (at this point) counting stats, but I don’t need another abysmal OBP guy on the roster now as there will no doubt be more of those to come. Solarte is at this point an easy choice for me – projected 72/81/1/.770 OPS, following last year’s 55/71/1/.808 OPS in only 405 AB. Not yet 30, and likely to gain 2B eligibility fairly early in the season.
|
|
| | | 103 | ksoze
ID: 7141224
Thu, Mar 23, 2017, 21:55
|
13.15 - Ross, Joe - SP - Wash
With these next two picks I envisioned a C and an SP. since Holt already had a C I figured I could wait on that one and took Ross without much other consideration. Fulmer and Shoemaker were queued up when this round began, and Roark was still there after my pick. As part of the Nat's rotation Ross should have a decent shot at a nice win total along with quite a few K's and a better than league average ERA. If he keeps the WHIP down, I'm set.
14.02 - Realmuto, JT - C - MIA
Taking a C here to fill my basic position needs, I didn't have any other C in mind. 7 other C's went before now, I have Realmuto raked a touch higher than at least a couple of them, and I didn't have any of the other C's still available ranked anywhere close to him. Here's hoping I'm right. His 2016 OPS was just a little shy of .800, he hit double digits in swipes, and he may get some extra AB's at 1B in 2017. Yes, his BABIP was too high last year, I'll chance him.
|
|
| | | 104 | Bmd
ID: 825715
Thu, Mar 23, 2017, 22:09
|
13.08 Koda Glover, RP, WAS
Has the makeup to thrive in the role. Lots of news were swirling about him becoming the new closer. Nothing was official and still isn't. Even if he wins the role he probably has a short leash. Really hope he can be on the good side of luck and lock down any early save opps he gets so the leash grows longer. Dusty isn't going to let him blow a bunch of games in a row. Very high risk high reward pick. He might get 0 saves or he might get 35.
14.09 Fernando Rodney, RP, ARI
Was pretty surprised Rodney was still undrafted in round 14. Yes, he's bad and will most likely not be the closer for more than 3 months. However, he should get some saves early in the season, I'd be happy with 10-15. I will cut him the moment he loses his job. Jim Johnson and Fernando Rodney, I bet teams are really scared of my formidable bullpen.
|
|
| | | 105 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 38261518
Thu, Mar 23, 2017, 22:34
|
13.10 Matt Shoemaker, SP, LAA
I fully expected to draft my previously referenced “must have player” here that I’ve had at the top of my queue since round 12. I still want him, but I’ve realized he will not make or break my current team. It’s one of the benefits of the slow draft. I’m happily surprised to see Shoemaker still available here and having missed out on the closers, I’d like to bolster my SP as much as possible. Shoemaker was a great pickup for me last year and I was impressed with his control. He appears fully recovered from the head injury. I now have a solid core of 4 SP and even though there are plenty of SP available that I like, this frees me up to concentrate elsewhere for a few rounds.
|
|
| | | 106 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 38261518
Thu, Mar 23, 2017, 22:37
|
14.07 Nomar Mazara, OF, TEX
What am I doing here? Honestly, I’m not sure and I may be overthinking the situation. I need a 2B so I should just take a 2B. Joe Panik has been sitting atop my queue since round 12. But he is still undrafted in all the RIBC qualifying leagues and they are ahead of us in the draft. I think Panik is ready for a bounce back season and will fill my 3rd MI spot perfectly. I’m definitely playing a game of 2B chicken but while I prefer Panik by a large margin over the other available 2B, I’m passing on him again. I convince myself that if nobody else in these leagues is drafting him, I must be crazy or totally wrong about Panik this early, so move on. I make a deal with myself that no matter what happens, I’m taking him next round if he is still there. Looking around at the options, I consider a SB/ratio killer but decide to pass. If I take a solid OPS contributor here and land Panik (who I alone apparently am counting a solid OPS contributor) next, then maybe one of the few SB guys will still be there in round 16 (I’m looking at you Rajai Davis). I do some playing around with projections on my spreadsheet and it works, so I make this my plan for the next few picks. Likely, it will blow up in my face.
This pick comes down to Mazara and UNDRAFTED (Yasmany Tomas). I think either pick works but prefer Mazara. Maybe he is too young to have a true break out year, but I think he is talented enough to improve upon last year’s numbers by a large enough margin to make this a good upside pick.
|
|
| | | 107 | Boozer
ID: 971677
Fri, Mar 24, 2017, 00:12
|
5.14 Herrera, Kelvin, RP, KC
I didnt like this pick, or the fact that I started the 2nd RP hemorrhage . It took me by surprise that 3 guys went early. And i should have let it ride.
Not only that but I picked Herrera as my anchor, SF guy would have been a smarter pick but I love guys that throw 100+, he hasnt been hurt, and I've had him every year just hanging around, picking up a save here and there, throwing smoke, getting strikeouts
and never hurts me,
gotta live with it, hope KC can give him enough chances and that he doesnt fold under the 2nd year pressure. I guess I just didnt see anything else that blew me away at this pick
|
|
| | | 108 | Boozer
ID: 971677
Fri, Mar 24, 2017, 00:24
|
Jose Ramirez, 3B, Cle
This isnt the profile of guys I pick, but I have a weakness for upside, and the rotoguru leagues seem to have freaking convulsions over middle infield, so I figured I better grab one. especially if he ends up with 2nd base elg.
Young, fast, huge upside
|
|
| | | 109 | Boozer
ID: 971677
Fri, Mar 24, 2017, 00:41
|
7.14
Danny Salazar, SP, Cle
Really wanted this pitcher at this pick. Another upside guy I'm willing to take a shot with. who else at this pick? grienke? Hill? Looked hard at Gausman and Teheran.
hoping for the breakout from this young talent
|
|
| | | 110 | Boozer
ID: 971677
Fri, Mar 24, 2017, 00:59
|
8.03 Elvis Andrus, SS, Tex
went with the best athlete here, love this guy, can move away from middle infield now.
Had my eye on Trumbo. Jones. franco/Longoria as well.
looks like the Boozers will run this season
|
|
| | | 111 | Boozer
ID: 971677
Fri, Mar 24, 2017, 01:32
|
9.14 Adam Jones, OF, Balt
Wow, Adam Jones in the late 9th round. didnt see that coming. He was getting some press with his play in the WBC. So I didnt wait
Had to get moving on some run production. Yea he plays on a dissapointing team and he's getting older, but he isnt dead. Quite healthy, class act, and a consistant producer.
|
|
| | | 112 | kdl212
ID: 51152323
Fri, Mar 24, 2017, 01:33
|
13.13 Addison Reed, RP, NYM
I missed out on a second closer - Fernando Rodney and Jeanmar Gomez were still out there, but neither passed the smell test. In past years, I've thrown middle-teen picks at pitchers with a role, but limited skills, and they never lasted. I can, and always do, find saves on the waiver wire, so I'm not spending a pick this high on someone with the closer tag but not the skills to back it up. I went with the next best thing: a killer ratio guy who will probably be the closer for the first 30 days of the season. Reed fixed something last year, and if he can produce 10k/9, an ERA around 2.00 and a WHiP of 1.00 again, this is solid production even if it only comes with 6 saves. If I'm lucky, he gets even more.
14.04 Michael Pineda, SP, NYY
Pineda is a sabrematrician's idea of upside. Solid xFIP, elite in strikeouts-minus-walks, higher than average BABIP. He's also the fantasy baseball equivalent of jeagermeister - seems like a good idea the first time, but you never go there again. As I read somewhere, do consecutive years of a BABIP in the .330s suggest bad luck, or that Pineda is, in fact, a pumpkin who happens to be able to strike a lot of people out? Is this the year the BABIP luck ends up his way, or even league average? I felt like I needed an upside play at this point in the draft, especially with all my old-timers already getting hurt. Jon Gray was my alternative. Wish I could have drafted them both.
|
|
| | | 113 | Boozer
ID: 971677
Fri, Mar 24, 2017, 01:44
|
10.03 Jonathan Schoop, 2B, Balt
This is a big mfer playing 2nd base for the Orioles He's young, he can hit for alot of power. Need him to improve his eye at the plate.
I dont need SB's any more and I want to be finished with middle infield.
|
|
| | | 114 | mailedfoot
ID: 531322718
Fri, Mar 24, 2017, 07:34
|
14.12 Max Kepler, OF, MIN
Made a decision to focus on offense for the next few picks, so selected Kepler as fourth OF; this is an upside play as he was wildly inconsistent in his rookie season last year. He has the physical tools to contribute in all 5 categories and has demonstrated an ability to adapt as he moves up the levels. He figures to get all the playing time he can handle and I am basically looking for him to take another step forward this year.
15.05 Justin Bour, 1B, MIA
My sense is that power bats are becoming sparse, so I decided to add Bour to the fold. Injury derailed him last year, but he did manage a .347/.526 mark in the first half before the injury. He is slated to hold down the 1B job for Miami so should be in the lineup every day but has a pronounced platoon split, so I might need to manage his at bats. He provides me with 1B/CI/UTIL depth and flexibity. Also considered Josh Bell but was not convinced he will be an everyday type player just yet.
|
|
| | | 115 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 38261518
Fri, Mar 24, 2017, 08:35
|
15.10 Joe Panik, 2B, SF
I misspoke in my previous rationale. When I wrote it, Panik had been drafted in one of the qualifying leagues, in round 10! So at least one other person thinks highly of him. I don’t know why I became convinced that Panik was a must have before round 12 but I’m glad I could stay patient. Since I drafted him, he has now been picked in the other two RIBC leagues, in round 18 and 20. Maybe I could have waited even longer. But I didn’t want to take the risk. Panik is due for a bounce back year. The online community tells me that Panik was unlucky last year; his underlying hitting abilities looked more like 2015 than his final numbers. I’m counting on that bounce back as well as Panik being recovered from a concussion which might have impacted him. This is later than I like to fill my MI spots but in fairness to me, I was prepared to take him in round 12, which is closer to normal in my draft strategy.
|
|
| | | 116 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 38261518
Fri, Mar 24, 2017, 08:39
|
16.07 Rajai Davis, OF, OAK
Davis survives and the plan I laid out in round 14 becomes a reality. Surely that’s a sign I’m wrong but oh well. Are 30 steals worth 12 rounds of picks when the ratios are so poor? I don’t think so. That’s what I see here with Davis and Billy Hamilton. There’s a chance Davis steals 40 and narrows the margin to 20 and most projections give Davis more RBI and the nod on SLG.
After all that reasoning and planning, I came close to drafting Matt Harvey. I thought Harvey was a worthy gamble at this stage, especially as my SP#5 where I could would have lower expectations from him. I figured Harvey would not make it back to me, but I decided to cross my fingers. As I type this rationale, I now know that Harvey was taken just 3 picks before me. Drat.
|
|
| | | 117 | twilson
ID: 2221181
Fri, Mar 24, 2017, 15:31
|
8.13 Jake Lamb, 3B, ARI
Taking stock of my team, I am in decent shape on the whole. I am extremely short on steals, which means I will either need to find two quality sources if I want to be competitive. Punting is also an option. I also will need a second closer to keep up.
Of those I mentioned in my 6/7 rationales, only Jake Lamb and Troy Tulowitzski remain. Round 8 actually did a lot more damage to the queue than the 7th. Though I hadn’t previously mentioned him, I probably would’ve taken a shot on Jose Peraza had he dropped 7 picks further.
I still like Lamb a lot. His first half last year displayed a high ceiling, and I think he has the tools to get there. Tulowitzksi is a different hitter than he was three years ago, and that’s not just because he no longer plays at altitude. He’s lost patience at the plate and has totally lost his edge against fastballs. With that said, he is still a league average hitter at minimum who plays shortstop, and that has real fantasy value. I also think he was better than his results last year, particularly in regards to babip. I can’t talk about Tulo without mentioning his extensive injury history. You have to project him for fewer games than other shortstops of his caliber.
If I go with a second closer, the obvious choice seems to be Neftali Feliz. He has closer talent, if no longer elite, and I don’t see any obvious threats lurking behind him in the Milwaukee bullpen. The only starter that gets my attention is Rich Hill, but I would prefer him to be having a less ugly spring.
Ben Zobrist starts at shortstop on the twilson All-Time RIBC squad. I think I’ve strongly considered drafting him in maybe 7 of my 8 years playing this format. He no longer maintains SS eligibility, but 2B/OF is nothing to sneeze at. He’s such a steady performer, and I love guys who walk more than they strike out.
There are a number of quality outfielders sitting in the draft pool. The top group are your typical solid ratio and R/RBI guys, but not too far below them some speed can be found. One that particularly intrigues me is Keon Broxton. His 2016 half season is remarkably similar to Jonathan Villar’s, with an elite SB rate paired with walks, strikeouts, and some power. Broxton just takes the latter three to the extreme. He showed some growth during the season and has been having an excellent spring. Still, the sample size is quite small and he lacks a prospect pedigree.
I think Jake Lamb is the right pick here. I like his chances to be more 2016 1H than 2H and I see a meaningful dropoff at 3B following him.
9.04 Keon Broxton, OF, MIL
I was going to take Ian Kinsler here until I saw that he was injured. Even the two week shutdown was probably enough to dissuade me, but news had broken that he is out at least 4-5 weeks, making it a complete non-starter. Had I known that information at 8.13, I probably would’ve taken Zobrist there and followed him up with Lamb now. I preferred Kinsler to Zobrist because of the SB advantage.
I knocked Tulo out of consideration, leaving me with Neftali Feliz and Keon Broxton. As I mentioned in 8.13, I think Feliz is the last good, secure closer on the board. After him, we start dropping to question marks. I do have a couple of them that I like, so I shouldn’t be completely out to sea if I pass, but it’s such a comfort to have two trustworthy closers. Broxton is extremely tempting, and his spring exploits are only increasing his visibility and draft stock. ADP says there’s a decent chance he’ll be around 25 picks from now, but I expect there to be a run on outfielders during that stretch. All it takes is one owner to feel as I do to make me highly uncomfortable with my ability to compete in SB.
I’m sure I made a few of you hate me as I went back and forth and back and forth between the two in my mind. The choice was changing by the minute as the clock ticked down until I finally pulled the trigger on Broxton. His power/speed combo excites me a lot more than Feliz, and that won out over the desire for two closers. That will likely complicate my pick strategy over the next 5-8 rounds, but I had to make a choice and that was it.
|
|
| | | 118 | holt
ID: 301312616
Fri, Mar 24, 2017, 17:50
|
13.16 Madson, Ryan RP OAK
I already have three closers but I think Madson is the guy in Oakland. It's not completely official but close enough for me. I still have some position needs but there are really no "must draft now" players left on the board so I think Madson has the best overall value. I'll draft a closer at this point just on general principle.
14.01 Reyes, Jose 3B NYM
This is not a great pick really. Reyes does fill some positional and SB needs for me but I most likely could have have drafted him in later rounds. I was very short on time, really wanted to get a 3B or SS, did not like the other options at all, so I just grabbed Reyes and moved on with my day. He's 33 and a bit injury prone, but his home field is no longer artificial turf, he claims he will have more than 30 steals this year, and they are giving him a green light. His OPS was around .770 last season. So I think he could turn out to be a great bargain in the 4th rd. He would have been even better if I had waited til rd 18 or 20 or something. Looking at other leagues it looks like he went in rds 15, 16 & 18 so it wasn't quite as terrible a reach as I originally thought.
15.16 Peralta, David OF ARI
Just trying to find a strong bat. I had Peralta on some squads in 2015 when he had an .893 OPS. I dont think his short 2016 season is a reflection of his skills. He might be good for 10 sb's. Peralta was on my mental list of hitters to watch for later in the draft, and it seemed this would be my last chance to draft him.
16.01 Cabrera, Asdrubal SS NYM
I almost took Cabrera two rounds earlier. Not my type of player at all. An MI who doesn't walk a lot and doesn't steal a lot of bases. But, he did have an OPS of .810 last season, and he is fairly durable. The remaining shortstops would do a lot more damage to my %'s. I guess I'm fortunate that Cabrera was still available.
|
|
| | | 119 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Fri, Mar 24, 2017, 19:38
|
16.16.256 Tomas, Yasmani - OF - AZ
I don't know how he slipped so far, but I'll take full advantage.
In the Tout Wars Mixed league draft (which uses OBP rather than average), he was picked #107th overall. In the ten billion NFBC drafts recorded this year, he is taken at #150 on average and the latest in all these drafts is 207. Yeah, his OBP suffers as he doesn't walk much, but his 31 homers lead to a SLG over .500 and over 80 RBI. He is going to be healthy enough to start the season so he can start the year in my UTIL slot as he was my fifth outfielder.
17.01.257 Schimpf, Ryan - 2nd - SD
I wouldn't say that I targeted "Detlef" - my nickname for this guy who shoots bombs - at the beginning of the draft, but I did think that I would like to have him as a MI late, so here he is. I picked him up last year and watched in amazement as he hit everything in the air, 20 of them cleared the fences. Look at the results - 18 singles, 17 doubles, FIVE triples, 20 perm dudes and 42 walks in a mere 330 plate appearances. And everyone is so damn gaga over Gary frickin Sanchez that he gets drafted in the third round!
Yeah, he won't repeat his 870 OPS, but his walk rate is still expected to be above 10% and he will still probably rake like he's Adam Dunn at second base. I liked the prospect of Joe Panik, too, so when he was taken, I didn't want to wait any longer.
Man, holt took three of my targets with David Peralta, Asbrubal Cabrera and Marco Estrada. We can't let the defending champ walk all over us like that, guys!
In the "better be careful what you wish for" department, I had Jung Ho Kang high on my queue for a few rounds and may have pulled the trigger had Sanfordors not done so. Visa problems are becoming way too common news items of late.
|
|
| | | 120 | jdrenbarger
Dude
ID: 04035768
Fri, Mar 24, 2017, 20:25
|
15.03 Gray, Jon – COL – SP
Didn’t really consider anything other than my third SP here, and I wanted a high K guy who at least holds out some hope of not working my ratios over too badly (and that requires looking at Ray and Gray, in particular, in the best possible light). Principally considered Lackey/Gray/Ray/Smyly/Velasquez – all projected north of 170 Ks, and all but Lackey projected north of 185 – and all with warts befitting pitchers still around at pick #227. Have Lackey and Gray at the top of my queue, with the latter admittedly a bit of a homer pick (Oklahoma native and college ball at OU) and requiring me to buy in to last year’s better-at-home pitching stats as a decent indicator of things to come. Would have taken Lackey as the “safer” pick – even at age 38 – had he not gone two picks before mine.
16.14 Cabrera, Melky – CWS – OF
Has been near the top of my hitters list for a couple of rounds now, and I’ve passed mostly because I perceived my needs to fill other positions as more pressing than drafting my fourth OF. Hard for me to ignore Cabrera at this point, however, as he offers a pretty solid track record of production and balance for this point in the draft. Aggregate annual stats of 74/79/4/.770 OPS (.336/.434) over the past three years, and I prefer his track record and balance at this point to others with worse ratio splits – and even those with, in particular, gaudier power numbers. I did spend a little time considering Inciarte here ... he’s a favorite of mine and will produce solid+ R/SB stats, but a likely sub-.700 OPS doesn’t help me at all where I need it most right now.
|
|
| | | 121 | Dave R
ID: 442121620
Fri, Mar 24, 2017, 21:09
|
12.06 Jameson Taillon SP Pit
The former #2 pick overall in 2010 did not make his major league debut until mid season last year, having undergone Tommy John surgery on 2014, followed last year to repair a hernia. His major league debut was a success,, posting an ERA of 3.38, Whip of 1.12 and striking our 85 batters in 104 innings. Best of all, only walking 17 batters in those 104 innings.
If he can stay healthy Taillman his the stuff to become the ace of the Pirates staff as well as the ace of team SANFORDORS
13.11 Brandon Drury 3B Ari
Entering the season with eligibility at 3rd and the OF, Drury is slated to be the starting second baseman for the DBacks. I love the flexibility. As a non regular last year Drury was regular enough to log 461 AB's, an OBP of .339, SLG % of .458 with 59 runs scored and 53 RBI's. I'm expecting an uptick in all cats
|
|
| | | 122 | Dave R
ID: 442121620
Fri, Mar 24, 2017, 22:44
|
15.11 Sean Manaea SP Oak
Last year was both good and bad for Manaea. After a crappy start to the year, Sean made some adjustments and registered a 2.96 ERA over his final 18 starts. That number might not be achievable, but I like Rotowire's projections of a 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and better than a K per inning
16.06 Jung Ho Kang 3B Pit
I needed a corner infielder and narrowed it down to Jung or Gurriel. In retrospect Gurriel would have been a better choice. The day after I drafted it came out that Kang is now being denied a work Visa. We knew his arrival was being delayed but this came out of left field.
In any event, if he does finally get here I can expect a OPS of around .850 and reasonable production in runs scored and RBI's
17.11 Ender Inciarte OF Atl
At this point I only had 3 OFers, not counting one I drafted that I plan on playing in the infield. Ender won't help in in SLG%, but will make up for it in OBP. Hitting at the top of Atlanta's lineup, he won't knock in many runs, but 100 runs and 30 SB's are well within reach
|
|
| | | 123 | kdl212
ID: 51152323
Fri, Mar 24, 2017, 23:48
|
15.13 Carlos Beltran, OF, HOU
This pick was made by my 8-year-old son, who is really into this draft. Unfortunately for him, the rhythm of the draft has my picks coming up while he is in school, and when he comes come we sit around waiting for twilson to pick (who he insists on calling "twill-son" and not, as I do, "t-wilson"), and it never gets back to me before bed time.
Anyhoo, he thought I needed to pick a 4th outfielder, so I gave him a list of names: Beltran, Peralta, Rajai Davis and Melky Cabrera. He first did a google search for Beltran, found a picture of him with his blonde beard, and then the picture of Beltran with his entire head eye-blacked, and chose Beltran without any further research. Happily for me as a Dad, Beltran was there when my pick came up. So add another 40 year-old to this team.
16.04 Drew Smyly. SP, SEA
Crossing my fingers on it all coming together for him this year. Samardzija was a safer option, but I was trying to balance out my team full of high floors with some more high ceilings.
|
|
| | | 125 | mmikulka
ID: 1122060
Sat, Mar 25, 2017, 03:42
|
15.07 Robbie Ray – SP, ARI
It's the 15th round and Strasburg is still my only SP.
Robbie Ray has been my top option for quite a while, and I don't want to risk it by waiting any longer.
His line last year was a dreadful 4.90/1.47, but he was extraordinarily unlucky, producing the 2nd-worst BABIP of the last 15 years. His FIP was a much nicer 3.76, and his xFIP was 3.45.
Were some of his problems more than just bad luck? Absolutely. He needs better command, particularly on his off-speed pitches, and he has made that his focus this offseason. If he makes even nominal improvements there, he could be elite.
Because OMG those strikeouts.
He had 218 of them last year in 174.1 IP. Let's take a look at the active SPs who had a higher K rate. At the top of that list is...
(nobody)
Closest to Ray's 11.25 K/9 was some dude named Max Scherzer, at a rate of 11.19. Behind him were Syndergaard, Pineda, Archer, Verlander, and Bumgarner.
Of course, those pitchers walked 2-3 batters per 9, and Ray walked 3.67 per 9. Despite his offseason focus, any improvements in command are purely speculative right now.
However, even without growing as a player, a return to any non-historic BABIP will make him a very valuable pitcher:
Just like with batters, if you are elite in one category and slightly below average everywhere else, that still nets a lot of value in a roto league. Which player do you prefer?:
A) 4.00/1.32, 10.5 K/9
B) 3.65/1.24, 8.0 K/9
I think most of us would instinctively choose B. In the traditional rotisserie pitching format, though, A is almost certain to provide more value.
The caveat, of course, is that you need to make sure your categories are reasonably well-balanced, and I've still got some work to do to ensure that happens.
16.10 Carter Capps – RP, SD
In the picks leading up to mine, I had been debating Matt Harvey and Carter Capps. The amount Harvey has fallen is sick. Outside of the RIBC leagues, his ADP is anywhere from 120-180, and is usually much closer to the 120 side.
That said, the AAA leagues hated him too, and of the two players, I had more confidence that Harvey would drop another round.
As long as Capps is anything like what he used to be, he should have a monster season in San Diego. It should be illegal to throw the way he does. No, seriously. His delivery is definitely illegal, except the MLB has decided their best option is to pretend they've addressed the situation and turn a blind eye.
When you factor in how much closer to the plate Capps is when he releases the ball, his *average* fastball in 2015 was perceived as almost 103 mph. That's probably as good of a place as any to start when you're trying to figure out how a player gets a 16.84 K/9.
And if he's healthy and doesn't have any major skill setbacks, I can't envision many scenarios where he doesn't end up with a bunch of saves. If Maurer is bad or even mediocre, Capps will probably take his job. If Maurer is good, he'll probably be traded at midseason like every competent San Diego closer since Trevor Hoffman.
Oh yeah... Capps gets to play half his games at Petco Park now.
Of course, if Harvey had been taken before my next pick, you're darn right I would be second-guessing myself for missing out on a potential ace in the 16th round (when I desperately need SP) for a setup man coming off Tommy John surgery.
|
|
| | | 126 | ksoze
ID: 7141224
Sat, Mar 25, 2017, 07:58
|
15.15 - Hudson, Daniel - RP - PIT
Figured these next two picks would be a reliever (I only have one closer) and one of the final three hitters necessary to complete my starting lineup. Went with Hudson here since he seems to have as good a chance as any of the remaining non-closers for potentially picking up saves sometime during the season. Here's hoping Watson stumbles or is traded to a contender when/if the Pirates fall out of contention.
16.02 - Suarez, Eugenio - 3B - CIN
Here's my starter at CI to begin the season; frankly I'd hoped Casellanos would make it to me here... alas he went prior to my previous two picks so I never got the chance. Suarez had also been on my radar for this position for a bit due to his SLG potential as the 3B in a small ballpark, and 140 runs/RBI might be a realistic expectation. He won't do my OBP any favors, but at this point in the draft one can't have everything.
|
|
| | | 127 | youngroman
ID: 19238238
Sat, Mar 25, 2017, 10:17
|
15.06 Drew Pomeranz, SP, BOS
still in search for some MI help, but the available options are not valuable enough right now.
on the pitchers side I would take a 3rd closer if someone undrafted would be named as such, but looking at the picks from the last 3 rounds even the speculative closers were already taken. this is nothing I participate in this early. this might be ok in round 20, but not in rounds 13 to 15.
there is still a lot of starting pitching remaining. the preferred options depend on which stats you prefer (ERA/WHIP vs. K). if you combine them and say: starting pitcher with more than 1K per inning and a ERA of 3.80 or lower you are down to 3 options: S-undrafted, Pomeranz and G-undrafted. average projections have all of them in the range of 140 to 160 innings pitched, which is far lower than the 200 IP that you would expect from a healthy starter. the reason is probably that none of them pitched a full season yet, so they don't expect them to be 2017 any different. as long as they are healthy at the start of the season I will ride them until their arms fall off.
of that trio I like Pomeranz the most because he had the best stats in 2016. The high WHIP of S and G sealed the deal for Pomeranz. If Pomeranz would have failed as well I would have adapted my criteria to get a larger number of potential options.
16.11 Vince Velasquez, SP, PHI
still in search for some MI help, but the available options are not valuable enough right now.
on the pitchers side I would take a 3rd closer if someone undrafted would be named as such, but looking at the picks from the last 3 4 rounds even the speculative closers were already taken. this is nothing I participate in this early. this might be ok in round 20, but not in rounds 13 to 15 16.
there is still a lot of starting pitching remaining. the preferred options depend on which stats you prefer (ERA/WHIP vs. K). if you combine them and say: starting pitcher with more than 1K per inning and a ERA of 3.80 4.00 or lower you are down to 3 options: S-undrafted, Pomeranz Velasquez and G-undrafted. average projections have all of them in the range of 140 to 160 innings pitched, which is far lower than the 200 IP that you would expect from a healthy starter. the reason is probably that none of them pitched a full season yet, so they don't expect them to be 2017 any different. as long as they are healthy at the start of the season I will ride them until their arms fall off.
of that trio I like Pomeranz Velasquez the most because he had the best stats in 2016. The high WHIP of S and G sealed the deal for Pomeranz Velasquez. If Pomeranz Velasquez would have failed as well I would have adapted my criteria to get a larger number of potential options.
|
|
| | | 128 | youngroman
ID: 19238238
Sat, Mar 25, 2017, 15:42
|
17.06 Josh Harrison, 2B, PIT
after filling some of my pitching slots I figured it is time to fill one of my remaining hitting slots: C, MI or Util. pickings at MI are getting thin. Since I am short on SB's I looked if one of the offerings may help in that department. Josh Harrison falls into that category. he is a 2B, so it was an easy decision.
|
|
| | | 130 | mailedfoot
ID: 531322718
Sat, Mar 25, 2017, 19:01
|
16.12 Chris Owings, SS, ARI
Chose Owings for the MI slot; he figures to be the starting SS for Arizona and slashed .315/.416 with 21 SB over 119 games last year. He is raking this spring and will only turn 26 this year so I am hoping he will build on last year's numbers. It would be nice if he took a few more walks but you can’t have everything this late in the draft. He does have OF eligibility so will provide roster flexibility.
17.05 Jake Odorizzi, SP, TB
Odorizzi becomes my fourth starter. He was good for 187 IP with 8 K/9 and decent ratios last year. I’m basically looking for more of the same. Still a young guy at 27, maybe he can even kick it up a notch. He’s been mentioned in trade rumors; if I’m lucky maybe he’ll get traded to an NL contender and away from the AL East.
|
|
| | | 131 | mmikulka
ID: 1122060
Sat, Mar 25, 2017, 19:05
|
17.07 Matt Harvey – SP, NYM
I was anxiously waiting to find out whether or not Harvey would make it back to me. It eventually became clear my pick wasn't happening until the morning, so I set a 1-man queue and went to bed. When I woke up, Harvey was mine.
I had no intention of drafting Harvey this year in any league. I root for the Mets and know how bad he was last year. I don't think he's likely to ever return to his previous form. I think he has the stupidest nickname in the MLB.
However, it's the 17th round, SP is my team's biggest question mark by far, and a 27 year old who was the 4th overall pitcher taken in my AAA last year is still available about 125 picks after his ADP.
His .353 BABIP last year (in less than 100 IP) also suggests he probably wasn't nearly as bad as his ERA/WHIP would suggest. I think it's more likely than not that he'll at least be useful.
A return to glory maybe only has a 10-20% chance of happening, but he still has a much higher chance of reaching that level of production than anybody else available around here does.
18.10 Jacoby Ellsbury – OF, NYY
This is the first pick I really disliked.
Garrett Richards was first on my queue. My 2nd choice of SP wouldn't really fit my team's needs unless I already had Richards. My backup SP options will probably be available much later.
My other top choices were a RP I really like that probably wasn't going to go anytime soon and a pair of uninspiring-aging-exspeedster OFs (Ellsbury/Gardner) who might as well be twins.
I grappled with whether or not to put the RP ahead of the OF: I decided I could safely wait on the RP but a bunch of OF were likely to be taken in between my picks, so I bit the bullet and hoped that I would get Richards instead of one of those stupid OF.
Ellsbury won the right to go 2nd in my queue, as he is projected to get more playing time and more SB (the primary motivation for this pick) than Gardner. There were several other OFs I liked better (including Gardner) but this pick was purely based on a desire for some extra SB, and there were very few options left.
Ellsbury should get 15-20 SB. He won't have many RBI and his SLG should be terrible, but I'm loaded in those categories. When my team is healthy, he'll probably start whenever one of my OF/1B has a bad matchup and ride the bench the rest of the time.
|
|
| | | 132 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 38261518
Sat, Mar 25, 2017, 19:34
|
17.10 Kyle Barraclough, RP, MIA
Not really a speculative saves pick, I’m drafting Barraclough as a solid MR with excellent K numbers. He should help me in the ratios as well. But of course, there’s a chance he gets to close if all the wrong things happen to Ramos. More likely, he'll pick up a few chances on days when Ramos needs rest.
|
|
| | | 133 | Dave R
ID: 442121620
Sat, Mar 25, 2017, 22:08
|
18.06 Jharel Cotton SP Oak
Cotton was obtained from the Dodgers late last season, and worked his way into the rotation the last month of the season. It was a pretty impressive debut, where he allowed only 1 earned run in 4 of his 5 starts, posting a 2.15 ERA and .82 WHIP, walking only 4 batters in 29 innings
Cotton possesses a fastball in the mid 90's and an outstanding change up thrown 15 MPH less, and has averaged over a K/inning over his career. I think I could have done worse for my 5th starter
19.11 Travis Shaw 1B/3B Mil
The news of Jung Ho Kang possibly missing the 2017 , failing to get a work Visa, put me in a bit of a bind. Here we were in round 19 and I had only 1 player at each corner spot. I thought of waiting to draft a replacement, with the hope some additional news came out.
There are some options left, but I decided to snatch Shaw now. As a member of the Red Sox squad last year, Travis started the season in impressive fashion for the 1st two months, only to finish the season on a down note so maybe this year will be different
Supposedly Shaw will be the starting third baseman, although his struggles against lefties might leave him in a platoon situation. Time will tell.
|
|
| | | 134 | ksoze
ID: 7141224
Sat, Mar 25, 2017, 22:58
|
17.15 - Saladino, Tyler - 2B/SS - CWS
I screwed up here. Yes I wanted Saladino, but no I didn't "need" him at this pick, I could have waited one and likely had him. Normally I pay attention to Holt's team, as he's the only one I have to account for between my two picks, and try to hold out on a player he's less likely to go after for my second choice. I think I rushed myself on this pick due to it being Friday afternoon and I was trying my damnedest to take care of some things at work so I could finish up at a reasonable time. I saw I wa up, I knew I wanted Saladino due to his multi-MI eligibility, the fact that he's the likely starter at 2B for the ChiSox and the fact that he's tearing it up in spring training, evidence that we all know ALWAYS translates into regular season production. Oh, and a chance at double digit steals wouldn't hurt my team. So rather than consider my next pick and whether or not he would make more sense right now, I chose. What I failed to account for was who Holt would take next, because I didn't bother to check his team and evaluate it based on who I was considering.
18.02 - Wainwright, Adam - SP - STL
When I saw Holt took Marco Estrada at 17.16, for the first time in this draft I wanted to kick something. After 16 picks he only had 3 SP's, of course he was likely to take one now. Possibly not coincidentally, within the last hour or two Estrada had been named the Jay's opening day SP. Due to that and a few other factors I should have taken him at 17.15. So... my man Adam Wainwright is just going to have to make me forget about the pick that got away. He sucked last year, but I'm confident that he's better than 2016, he's just two seasons removed from 2.38/1.03.
|
|
| | | 135 | kdl212
ID: 51152323
Sat, Mar 25, 2017, 23:02
|
17.13 Danny Valencia, 3B/OF (and soon 1B), SEA
With Miguel Cabrera's back hurting, I was looking for a corner infielder for some depth. There were still several more-or-less equal looking options. No particular reason for picking Valencia over the others, but the positional flexibility ain't nothing.
|
|
| | | 136 | holt
ID: 57232523
Sun, Mar 26, 2017, 03:50
|
17.16 Estrada, Marco SP TOR
I was wondering if there was something I was missing about Estrada. Double-checked before submitting my pick, everything looks good. He pitches in the AL East and isn't going to pitch 200 innings, but he's been a pretty solid starter for 5 years now, especially 2015 & 2016. Not sure which way I would have gone if he wasn't available. Probably would have gone with two hitters. He was my choice at SP here by a fairly wide margin.
18.01 273 Naquin, Tyler OF CLE
I drafted Naquin last season due to his red-hot spring stats, cut him after his slow start, then had to watch from afar as he tore it up on somebody else's roster, ending up with an .886 OPS. The same exact thing may happen this season.
I kind of wanted to draft Renfroe, but he is also highly speculative. I thought C Dickerson might slip through the cracks til my next pick. Valencia is the player I really wanted here. Super pick for kdl at 17.13. I really could have used him on my roster.
|
|
| | | 137 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 38261518
Sun, Mar 26, 2017, 13:58
|
18.07 Garrett Richards, SP, LAA
After losing out on Harvey, I settle on a similar sort of player. Richards is trying to pitch through injury and has looked healthy this spring. He is supposed to be the ace of the Angels but any pitch might put him out for the season. At this late stage, it’s a risk I’m willing to take. If he is able to keep pitching, his numbers should provide value well above this draft position. I have no real hope of him staying healthy all year. I’m now heavily invested in the Angel’s pitching staff. As an east coaster, I’ll struggle to stay awake to follow their starts.
|
|
| | | 138 | youngroman
ID: 19238238
Sun, Mar 26, 2017, 14:15
|
18.11 Hunter Renfroe, OF, SD
now that it is clear that JD Martinez will miss the start of the season I need an OF to fill in for him. 18 hours ago I started researching the available options. of the 10+ outfielders I looked at I only liked 2: Grichuk and Renfroe. I then waited and waited. Boozer timeout out. some pitchers were taken. night pause. a few more hours to wait until I am due. and then: boom 5 picks in less than 10 minutes. I saw the notification that a pick was done for me, so I knew that my queue lasted. turned out that 4 out of these 5 picks were outfielders and Grichuk was the first to go. luckily Renfroe survived.
Because I took the decision 18 hours ago, I don't know my exact reasoning why only Grichuk and Renfroe were considered. the issues of all other players must have been 2 out of these 3: poor percentages, almost no SB's and uncertain playing time. the percentages and playing time of Renfroe should be no issue at the start of the season. If the power (6 HR and 37 R+RBI in 95 AB) is the average of his 2016 and spring training stats it will hopefully last for the full 2017 season and he will be my 1st outfielder off the bench or permanent utility man.
|
|
| | | 139 | jdrenbarger
Dude
ID: 04035768
Sun, Mar 26, 2017, 16:00
|
17.03 Vogt, Stephen – OAK – C
Only three catchers I’m even remotely interested in drafting left on the board and I think there’s a decent chance they’re all gone by the time my next pick comes around, so I’m committed to taking one here. Only seriously considered Perez, McCann and Vogt – all have similar 2017 projections for counting stats and are projected to be in the same range for OPS, albeit with Perez expected to produce another sub-.300 OBP. I’ve drafted Perez in each of the past two years in part because he plays more often than most other catchers and I think there’s some value in that alone as long as he’s producing Rs/RBIs, but he’s simply not nearly as valuable in our OBP/SLG league as he is in an AVG/HR league. I prefer the better OBP/SLG balance of McCann and Vogt, believe Vogt will have more plate appearances and hold up better than McCann over the course of the year as he’ll often DH, and acknowledge that I probably ought to pick up another catcher at some point to start on days Vogt is facing a lefty (.603 OPS v LHP over the past three years).
18.14 Reddick, Josh – HOU – OF
Looking to fill my last starting hitter/utility position here, and with a power bat as best I can - my projections show me lagging badly, more so than anywhere else, in SLG. Really wanted either Grichuk or Renfroe, but both went off the board within the six picks preceding mine. Considered Reddick and two others not yet drafted; pretty quickly settled on Reddick due to expected playing time and stellar performance against RHP (three year aggregate OPS of .847 (.355/.492)), with a few expected SBs also a plus. I’ll need someone else as well, though, as I’ll sit him against LHP (three year aggregate OPS of .534 (.265/.269)).
19.03 Kennedy, Ian - KAN - SP
I entered the 18th round exactly where I was last year – 11 hitters, three SPs and three RPs. I drafted three starters in the last eight rounds last year, and got nearly (sigh) 100 IP out of the group (and almost all of those from Joe Ross in the 18th round). This year, I’m hoping to double that with my fourth starter – my FA pitching pickups last year, aside from those picked up solely to speculate on saves, collectively put up a 4.31/1.37/6.9 K/9IP line over 505 IP while in my starting roster.
Considered Kennedy/Snell (who went three picks before mine)/three not yet drafted and, after ruling out those with a very possible 1.35+ WHIP or current health issues, was left only with Kennedy. Not at all a sexy pick and much more “high floor” than “high ceiling,” but I’m happy with that at this point. Three year composite annual line of 188 IP/11 W/3.84/1.27/9.0 K/9IP and projected for close to the same this year ... I’ll be very happy if that’s what I get from him.
|
|
| | | 140 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 38261518
Sun, Mar 26, 2017, 19:12
|
19.10 Pablo Sandoval, 3B, BOS
Every draft needs a requisite “best shape of his life” pick. In the Kung-Fu Panda’s case, I’ll settle for “in better shape than last year.” All the articles this spring have the same theme: Sandoval is ready to bounce back. If so, Sandoval’s production would be boosted by the Red Sox lineup and as my first bench player, I can afford to play some matchups with him and ride his hot streaks. Also considered C here, but by this point, there’s not much to like. I also have my eye on another RP and SP but figured some of those options would be available with my next pick.
|
|
| | | 141 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 38261518
Sun, Mar 26, 2017, 19:14
|
20.07 Salvador Perez, C, KC
If OBP stood for Off Base Percentage, Perez might be the first C off the board. His counting stats and SLG hold up for the position and his defense keeps him in the lineup. Plugging in his projections into my spreadsheet tell me that he helps me reach my post-draft goals in the 4 other offensive categories and brings my OBP lower than I would like. The other options at catcher have the effect of hurting multiple categories, so I decide to eat his terrible OBP for now and see what develops in the remaining picks and season. Making this pick now means I am passing on some pitchers I like after originally planning on taking one here. I hope I don’t regret that.
|
|
| | | 142 | mailedfoot
ID: 532131615
Sun, Mar 26, 2017, 21:29
|
18.12 Steven Wright, SP, BOS
After taking hitters with my last three picks, I decided to go with Wright as a fifth starter. He'll start the year in the Red Sox rotation and, if he can pitch like he did before getting injured running bases last year, will be good for ratios and wins. A knuckleballer, he's looked good this spring and I'm thinking he should be able to bounce back and replicate last year.
19.05 Brian McCann, C, HOU
I tend to look at catcher as something of a necessary evil in this league and usually wait until the last few picks to take one. But McCann has been sitting near the top of my queue now for a few rounds and I figured he wouldn't last much longer so pulled the trigger on him. At 33, he's on the downward slope but I'm hoping to get another decent year out of him. The Astros should give him opportunity for plenty of counting stats if nothing else.
|
|
| | | 143 | mmikulka
ID: 1122060
Sun, Mar 26, 2017, 22:07
|
19.07 Corey Dickerson - OF, TB
I still have only 3 SP. Should I take one here? No: this is a post Garrett Richards world, and I don't think anybody left is reliably good or an outlier in upside.
A few of the OF I liked better than Ellsbury were still around, and I had planned to take one. Corey Dickerson was at the top of my list.
Leaving Colorado for Tampa Bay resulted in a disappointing year, just like pretty much everybody predicted.
However, largely lost in the disappointment caused by Dickerson's large dropoff from his previous stats was the fact that he was still a pretty good player (.762 OPS), particularly against righties.
Dickerson's platoon split (career of .644/.887) was one of the other things that drew me to him: platooning can be difficult in this format, but I like to give it a try anyway, usually by drafting at least player with multiple eligibility (Thames) and giving myself 2 viable bench options.
The RP I really wanted (Grant Dayton) was still undrafted in all leagues, so I figured I could keep waiting. Meanwhile, Dickerson was drafted at 289/296 in the AAAs, and this was pick 295, so I went with him.
20.10 Sean Doolittle – RP, OAK
Unless I get an ace out of Ray or Harvey, my SP will be below league average, but I've been adjusting to that by loading my team with high talent relievers.
Grant Dayton is still out there, but he's also still undrafted in the AAAs (with one of them finished). I like Doolittle's potential a lot as well, and it's already a bit late for him to be hanging around.
My projections have Doolittle tied for 10th place among relievers when wins and saves are removed from the equation. There's a bit of an injury risk: his last two years were shortened by shoulder issues (though he still pitched well). That's a risk I'm fine taking this late in the draft.
Doolittle could be a sneaky source of saves: Bob Melvin suggested that with so many former closers in his bullpen, he (and the relievers involved!) would be comfortable changing roles based on the situation. Out of the 4 potential closers, Doolittle is the only lefty (and likely the best pitcher).
|
|
| | | 144 | Bmd
ID: 825715
Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 09:56
|
15.08 Jedd Gyorko, 2B/SS/3B, STL
Flexibility. That sums up this pick. Right now he's slotted as my MI but I'm sure at some point he'll start for me at 2B, SS, and 3B. He'll allow me to maximize games played more easily and is a decent backup in case of injuries.
At this point in his career Gyorko is pretty much a known commodity, low obp and decent Slg %. I'm expecting slight regression but figure his playing time will be about the same as last year.
|
|
| | | 145 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 13:26
|
18.16.288 - Snell, Blake - SP - TB
I'm watching the 17th round go by and even though I was quite pleased with landing Y Tomas, I wonder if my team needed E Inciarte more as I am low on steals. I have to finally take my SS on this turn and I am also wanting my fifth SP. My queue for starters is Estrada, Cotton, Richards then Snell and I'm really hoping for Estrada, but I'm not going to be disappointed between the other three.
Snell has a cannon for an arm with a great strikeout rate but poor ERA and a horrible WHIP. Much like Robbie Ray, the stat heads are gaga over Snell's potential. I like to think of him as a two headed monster with Tanner Roark, that could be over 350 high quality innings. However, if Snell is Eovaldi-esque, I have no qualms cutting him loose, were at that point of the draft.
19.01.289 - Polanco, Jorge - MIN - SS
I have been playing chicken with shortstops for many rounds now. After holt got his in Asdrubal at 261, only Chris Owings came off the board. People are going to finalize their MIs around now, so I decide upon a post-hype sleeper in Orlando Arcia who should be leading off for the Brewers. He will have a horrible SLG, but the Brewers love to run and he is capable. I have him loaded into my Queue. Four players get picked in an 18 hour period. Wait and wait, Fosten takes forever... and what do you know, he snakes my guy! One pick to go in the nineteenth round and I lose him? I should have some perspective here, these are all ONE DOLLAR PLAYERS! But when you have your heart set on one guy, it can be quite crushing to be surprised.
I decided I couldn't wait any longer, Plan B was Jorge Polanco, a young guy who hopefully will be yet another Twin MI who puts together a surprisingly fruitful season out of no where and then gets over drafted the next season, never to be heard from again. Jorge has a decent hit tool and some success in the minors. I don't need much from him, just don't kill me out of the gate. So, both players picked this round could be April cuts, that's how this turn worked out.
The very next pick was Alcides Escobar! Fosten, why couldn't you have choosen to take him at 18.15 and left Arcia for me?!?!? Alcides wasn't even my Plan Z, he is AWFUL. Dirt floor, low ceiling. He's yours, Fosten. I have cursed Arcia to a dismal season, my disappointment had to be channeled somewhere. Here's a photo of Fosten scouting Escobar.
|
|
| | | 146 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 13:50
|
19.16.320 - Mauer, Joe - 1ST - MIN
Back-to-back Twins, must be the end of the draft.
So Tommy Joseph is the shiny new thing that many people don't think is all that shiny. Even those of us that like his polished look realize that he will have a low OBP. Joe Mauer is famous for his OBP. His career OBP is .3915, 98th all time, one tick better than Honus Wagner. Only a fool would look at Joe's career stats and draw any conclusions from them, he's not the same person, he's just getting paid as if...
But he still gets on base. He has not had a slugging percentage in the 400s in the past three seasons, so it must be his eye that lays off borderline pitches, don't know why pitchers don't just stay on the middle half and not nibble at the edge. I didn't realize until after a little research that Joe has a significant split - .793 OPS against RHP, .610 against lefties. If he wasn't earning $23 frickin million each year, he would be platooned. That's what I intend to do with him. He is a one category contributor with no steals but decent runs and rbi, if he does lead off and Sano, Buxton, and Dozier have decent years, he could score a lot of runs. I think he's a real bargain at #320.
20.01.321 Lorenzen, Mike - RP - CIN
I like Lorenzen, he was a top 100 prospect a few years ago, didn't pan out as a starter but put up impressive numbers in the pen last year. R Iglasias is hurt, Brian Price started the spring saying that there was going to be a bullpen-by-committee, so I like the chances of getting saves as well as decent stats from Lorenzen. If Price comes out in the next few days stating Mike will start the season at the top of the committee, his stock will go way up and this will look like a great bargain.
|
|
| | | 147 | kdl212
ID: 43240617
Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 13:52
|
18.04 Blake Treinen, RP, WAS
Probably a throw-away pick, but the Nationals closer situation is muddled, and Treinen could end up with 10 saves. He throws a heavy sinker and strikes guys out, so he could run with it if they ever gave him a chance. More likely, Treinen is my first drop when the roster crunch sets in.
19.13 Starlin Castro, 2B, NYY
Was surprised to see him still available. He's my 4th MI, and he hit 333/500 at home last year, so maybe I just play him for home games. He is only 27, and while I'm not expecting double-digit steals, some nice counting stats would be very welcome at this point in the draft.
20.04 Mike Zunino, C, SEA
I have no interest in catchers before round 20. So it was round 20 and I surveyed the landscape. I probably could've waited until round 22 to make my choice and not have fared any worse, but I feel like each year one or two managers throw a wrench in the plans of the catcher-punters like me and draft a backup catcher. Of the remaining options, I saw the most upside in Zunino. He's had a couple of years to learn how to be a major league catcher, and is hopefully settling in so that he can focus more on the hitting side, mainly on not swinging-and-missing all the time. 320/480 is possible, but 290/450 is more likely. Unless he starts off hitting, I'm likely to cut bait for the catcher of the week.
|
|
| | | 148 | youngroman
ID: 19238238
Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 14:59
|
19.06 Aaron Judge, OF, NYY
with 5 starters and 2 relievers I am already near my target in pitching. I may only add 1 starter or 2/3 relievers in the last rounds. until then I look at hitting.
I like going into the season with a replacement player for each position, except catcher. with 1 injured OF I do not have one yet at SS and OF, so these were the primary positions I looked at. I see no valueable SS out there, so I looked at what is left at OF. The first option I looked at was Aaron Judge. Looks like he won the job with his solid play this spring. he has enormous power potential, but also enormous strike-out potential. I mean MLB leading bad. If he figured out big league pitching and crushes balls over the fence he will stay on my team, otherwise there will be another player that does just that and will be happy to join my team.
20.11 Zack Cozart, SS, CIN
the only position, except catcher, that I have no backup for is SS. I also want a few more potential closers until the end of the draft. and I am missing a starting catcher.
There are some closer in waiting candidates and based on the other RIBC drafts I felt that I can wait 1 more round to start picking them. I don't like catchers. they are like kickers in football. someone in the last round should be good enough and if he sucks or is out for a game you get a replacement players that performs equally.
The SS options aren't great either. Cozart was my choice because his perentages should be slightly higher than those of other available options. And the Yankees have not decided yet what they do with their SS vacancy. Cozart is one of the names that gets mentioned. If the Yankees consider him, he must be good, right?
|
|
| | | 149 | ksoze
ID: 7141224
Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 18:51
|
19.15 - Wacha, Michael - SP - STL
8 pitchers in for me, 3 from the Cards, here's hope the team doesn't crash and burn. Wacha is one bad season, due mainly to shoulder issues that are hopefully behind him now, removed from consistent eras in the low 3's and whips around 1.20. He's been good this spring. He's my 6th starter, in the 19th round. The value is there, here's hoping the results are. Kennedy and Cobb were on my list leading up to this pick, they both went first. Given the choice I'd have taken Kennedy first, Cobb third of the three. Also, I knew I wanted an OF as one of these two picks, I figured with only 4 SP's Holt was likely to take one on the turn; my list of desireable SP's was the same as OF's - 2 - i doubted Holt would take a pair of either on the turn but that, if he did, SP was more likely. Turns out he took one of each.
20.02 - Gordon, Alex - OF - KC
This pick was intended to fill my UTIL spot; Pillar was the other OF on my short list. At this point in the draft we're trying to find anything potentially positive right? Gordon had three straight years worthy of a draft pick much higher than this, then he fell off the cliff in 2016, hopefully due only to a wrist injury that's healed. When he was good his OPS was around .800... can he bounce back to somewhere near that at age 33? He's hitting well in ST so I'm going to believe so.
|
|
| | | 150 | mmikulka
ID: 1122060
Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 19:50
|
21.07 Grant Dayton - RP, LAD
Dayton ended up undrafted in the AAAs and AA, so I probably would have been able to take him with my final pick. I wanted him on my team, though, and didn't want to risk somebody unexpectedly snapping him up.
Since my team's biggest weakness is likely starting pitching, I have been stockpiling elite relievers to make up for it: Steamer projects my RPs to be #4, #6, #11, #13, #16, and #27 in value from ERA/WHIP/Ks. Dayton is the #6.
There's also the added bonus that he's a quasi-handcuff to Jansen. Though he's a lefty, I've seen it suggested that Dayton would be the first choice to close if Jansen gets injured. He could also potentially secure me a few matchup saves that would have otherwise been lost.
All this, of course, assumes that Dayton is a dominant reliever again this year despite only 26.1 career MLB innings. His minor league stats seem to reinforce that school of thought, though, and he has been solid during Spring Training.
On a RP-related note, I like the Blake Treinen pick that kdl212 made a few rounds ago. Despite the popular consensus being Kelley and now Glover, I've been considering Treinen the frontrunner to start the year as closer in Washington (although that only means a 50-60% chance / although they'll probably trade for a closer at some point anyway).
22.10 Gio Gonzalez – SP, WAS
I was debating Gio Gonzalez and Tyler Skaggs for this pick, and decided to go with Gio for the higher projected innings and the more consistently useful track record.
He's clearly on the decline, but hopefully he'll have a bit of a bounce back from last year and give me 160+ innings of something tolerable like 3.95/1.32 with 11 wins and an 8.0 K/9.
|
|
| | | 151 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 38261518
Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 20:35
|
21.10 Daniel Norris, SP, DET
Sure enough, after taking Perez with my last pick, my queue of pitchers (and batters too) was picked through pretty good. I probably should have just waited on catcher. At least a few of my picks are left, top among them Norris. Norris is a popular sleeper pick so there’s a good chance he doesn’t deliver this year and becomes next year’s post-hype sleeper. But he’s had a good spring and offers a fair amount of upside for this late stage in the draft. The managers picking twice after me seem mostly filled at SP. It looks to me that maybe 3 of them will be looking at SP at some point and I have a list of 6 pitchers in my queue. There is one RP I am hoping makes it back to me but I like Norris more than a few notches than the others and if he ends up fulfilling his promise, then his impact will likely be greater to my team than the RP.
|
|
| | | 152 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 38261518
Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 20:40
|
22.07 Corey Knebel, RP, MIL
Knebel (who was my desired MR pick last round) should be in line behind Feliz, who had a bounce back last year. But can he do it again with the pressure of closing? Fangraphs says that if Knebel can work on his control, he will dominate. This spring Knebel has an 11:1 K:BB ratio and his manager says he has been “dominant, almost.” I read that as Counsell not wanting to undermine Feliz. Here’s to Neftali making me happy by blowing save chances. Knebel’s high K rate make him a useful MR option in either case at this stage.
|
|
| | | 153 | mailedfoot
ID: 531322718
Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 20:49
|
20.12 Carl Edwards, RP, CHC
Added Edwards to boost my Ks and ratios; he is also a speculative play to take over the closer role at some point though he would have to leapfrog a bunch of relievers to do that. But the Cubs are in “win now” mode, so if he’s the best reliever in the pen, I think it is conceivable.
21.05 Ryan Pressly, RP, MIN
Pressley is a handcuff for Kintzler as I attempt to lock down the Twins saves. He has the stuff to close and there really is no one else in the Twins pen at present besides him and Kintzler as the other threats to close are injured or have been sent back to the minors.
|
|
| | | 154 | Boozer
ID: 971677
Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 21:37
|
11.04 Victor Martinez DH Det
I had 3 sp's qued here, Felix Hernandez, Gausman, and Kuechel. 2 of them
grabbed right from under me.
Switched gears, theres still a glut of run producers with moderate power. Victor is old but steady, and is gonna get early at bats, which will hopefully translate to 500+
12.03 Adam Duvall OF Cinc
Stuck with the run producers through this turn. Young, solid breakout season in '16, lots of upside.
|
|
| | | 155 | Bmd
ID: 825715
Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 22:05
|
16.09 Jeff Samardzija, SP, SFG
Old reliable. Jeff has been extremely consistent for the past few years. I expect more of the same. I think he fell a bit because of his spring. It was a little concerning but sounded more like mechanical issues and not injuries or decline in skills.
17.08 Taijuan Walker, SP, ARI
He showed flashes of greatness last year. Moving to the NL should be a positive. Started to kick myself for drafting 3 SPs in the first 9 rounds. So much quality still out there.
|
|
| | | 156 | beastiemiked
ID: 481162721
Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 00:13
|
18.09 Travis Jankowski, OF, SDG
At this point I was very light on stolen bases. I had guys that could get 10+ but no real threats that could get 30. Jankowski stole 30 bases in 383 at bats last year. I would love a repeat of that but playing time could be an issue. It looks like the Padres will be opening the season with some injuries so I'm hoping Jankowski can light it up the first few months. If his playing time becomes sparse then I'll cut bait. He's going to be a major drag on Slg but when I drafted Gyorko I did so knowing I was going to hopefully get a speedster with a halfway decent OBP so they could balance each other out. I actually started looking at Heyward and Gardner with this pick. Both are safer options that will steal bags but neither will get 30+.
19.08 Jason Heyward, OF, CHC
How the mighty have fallen. He had one of the worst possible fantasy years possible. He was huge negative in every category except SB's and those he only stole 11 bases. He had a .631 OPS last year. I definitely expect more. Most projections have him around .750 or so. In 2015 he had a .798 with 23 stolen bases. Why can't he do that again? He's only 27 so he shouldn't be declining. Who knows. If I had to redo this pick I probably would've picked Joyce just because he's so intriguing and could get regular at bats in Oakland. I also considered Folty here but figured there was a good chance he'd slip to me.
20.09 Mike Foltynewicz, SP, ATL
Everybody has that one guy that they "have" to have. Foltynewicz is mine. He's the Paul Wilson and Jeremy Affledt for me(I'd always draft these two and always end up extremely disappointed). It's that potential that he could become great but more than likely he'll stay in mediocrity. Didn't really consider anyone else with this pick as I didn't want to miss out on Mike.
|
|
| | | 157 | beastiemiked
ID: 481162721
Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 00:20
|
21.08 Byung Ho Park, 1b, MIN
I was long overdue for a CI spot. Really thought Chris Carter was already gone but he wasn't. Might've picked him here if I had known he was available. Park was terrible last year. He's fighting for a job this year. However, Vargas had just gotten injured a day or two before so I figured Park is more likely to see some PT early in the season. In the 21st round I like to take chances on guys that have some upside. Park has some nice projections out there from the experts. .450 slugging would be nice with a slightly below OBP. He could exceed those but anything around those with good amount of at bats and I would be happy.
As I mentioned, Carter would've been a consideration if I knew he was available. Also, Vizcaino was in my mind as a handcuff for JJ.
|
|
| | | 158 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 12:04
|
22.16.352 Espinoza, Danny - LAA - 2nd/SS
I felt I needed a back up middle infielder, ideally someone qualified at both second and short. I had three guys in mind, Danny, who does meet the dual qualification, Kolton Wong and one undrafted.
Remember way back in another carefree era where a 24 year old slick gloved shortstop for the Nationals hit 21 homers and stole 17 bases? He was then drafted in the 11th round by average in the five RIBC leagues during the Obama/Romney campaign of 2012. Danny was taken in between Edwin Encarncion and Max Sherzer that year on average. Some careers are not like the others...
His OPS declined, but he still hit 17 homers and stole 20 bags in 2012, leading him to get picked in the ninth round by average in 2013. It went downhill from there. Last year was the first time he had over 600 plate appearances since 2012. He also had a career high 24 dingers, yet his slugging percentage was a dismal .378.
He now plays for Los Angels de Los Angeles as their starting second baseman. That makes three LAA bats on my team. He had a career high 9% walk rate last year, giving me hope that he can produce a league average OBP. If either Jorge Polanco or Schimpf fail to produce, perhaps Danny E can fill in.
23.01.353 Iwakuma, Hisashi - SEA - SP
I already posted my love note to Kuma. I honestly insisted to myself that I would let him go this year because the last three times I drafted him it was at a level that he didn't meet. Well, 23rd round is time to gamble. I did have a list of starters I was going to take over Hisashi, but they all got swiped right ahead of me - Tyler Skaggs, Charlie Morton and Zack Davies. E Rodriguez was a coin flip.
Kuma's success rides on his ability to nearly eliminate walks and generate weak contact with his highly effective sinker/slider. Last season he just didn't have it. If he still does not in April, I'll move on.
|
|
| | | 159 | holt
ID: 57232523
Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 12:21
|
19.16 Toles, Andrew OF LAD
Was a little frustrated that Ksoze took Wacha at 19.15. Very surprising. Anyway, I ended up taking a shot on Toles due to his potential to steal some bases while not hurting obp/slg. Right now it appears that he is the strong side of a LF platoon. He had an .870 OPS in 48 games with the Dodgers last season, along with an .884 OPS/23 SB in 82 games in the minors. Prior to that he worked in the frozen food section at Kroger's. Prior to that he was minor league player of the year for Tampa Bay in 2013, hitting .326 with 62 steals. Apparently he suffered from anxiety after that, got released, learned some lessons, and got back into baseball. My team is weak in the SB dept so Toles could potentially be a big boost. I still needed help at CI and MI but those options are all of the ho-hum variety and I thought it was better to take a shot on a player with some upside.
20.01 Hellickson, Jeremy SP PHI
Decided to take my 5th SP here as they start falling like dominoes in this part of the draft. Hellickson had a 3.71/1.15 154K in 189IP line last season. That's pretty strong for a pitcher still available in the 20th rd. Granted, he had some weak seasons in 2013-2015 (after strong seasons in 2011-2012). The difference seems to be in his use of the changeup. "Hellickson’s whiff/swing on his changeup in 2016 (48.3%) was second among starting pitchers to only the Cubs’ Jake Arrieta (49.3%). Hellickson also threw 5 times as many changeups as Arrieta."
I think that his weak prior seasons are a major reason that all of his projections are so low. I wouldn't pay him $17M like the Phillies did, but I will draft him in the 20th rd.
21.16 Soler, Jorge OF KAN
Soler has a .258/.328/.434 slash after 3 seasons with Cubs, but he was only 22 when they first called him up. Who can blame them after he destroyed the minors with an OPS of 1.132? I think it's possible the the move to KC will do him some good. He's only 25 and has plenty of talent. I don't think I'm taking any great risk in drafting him as the 336 player overall. About an hr after I draft him it is reported that he has a strained oblique and may miss a week or two. Oh well. It's a damn sight better than what happened with I drafted Pollock last season. I'll take it.
22.01 337 Freese, David 3B PIT
As much as I'd prefer not to select any of the CI remaining, I still need to fill that slot, so here we go. May as well try Freese first. Who knows what will happen with Kang? And Freese is a good defender at both 1st and 3rd. Freese's slash of .270/.352/.412 last season is about the same as his career numbers. I'll work on improving my team as the season goes on but for right now Freese is a starter for me. I passed on Chris Carter because at this point it is questionable if he has much of a role for the Yankees. I also felt tempted to take M Reynolds to start the season but how many games is he going to get to start? Ian Desomond will probably be back in April sometime. Dietrich was an option until Ksoze snagged him right in front of me. I may as well take this opportunity to express my disgust at Ksoze taking Ryu out from under me at 23.15. Not cool.
|
|
| | | 160 | Dave R
ID: 530392313
Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 16:22
|
14.06 Jay Bruce OF NYM
Historically Bruce has had an OPS well in excess of .800, until years 2014-2015. Last year was a bounce back year of sorts, as he recorded and OPS of .815, despite a low of .309 in OBP, due to his carreer 2nd highest SLG% of .506.
Maybe that's just the way it will go for Bruce from now on, or maybe last year was a fluke, and he will revert to his down years of 2014-2015. I'm banking on 30 HR's , 90 RBI'S and 75 runs scored, hitting in the middle of the Met's lineup
20.06 Leonys Martin OF Sea
Lost in what was seemingly another average season, was the fact that at 28 years old, it was Martins best season. Leonys is a drain on SLG%, and doesn't offer much in the way of RBI's, but he can score runs and he can steal bases. So I'm just hoping for another year of improvement.
21.11 Kevin Pillar OF Tor
Pillar is another attempt to bolster SB's. Kevin is probably a better defensive OFer than hitter, which should serve to keep him in the lineup. Getting someone who is virtually guaranteed nearly 600 AB's in round 21 is a bonus, and I'm hoping for a continuation of the solid spring Kevin has had.
|
|
| | | 161 | kdl212
ID: 43240617
Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 16:39
|
21.13 Gerardo Parra, OF, COL
An April special, as he should start in the outfield until David Dahl comes back. Then, when he returns to the bench, I drop him for a middle reliever who we've never heard of but is striking out guys at an 11k/9 pace. They emerge every year, and I aim to grab one with this roster slot. The pick was down to Parra and Soler - with Soler offering much more promise, but I just couldn't get behind a league switch + the move to a power-suppressing environment. The short-term dazzle of Coors Field may prove to be a costly distraction.
22.04 Colin McHugh, SP, HOU
A dead-arm must explain why he's lasted this long. Otherwise, he'd have gone 6 rounds earlier. Nothing sexy, and not much upside, but he pitches for a winner, and some better luck on batted balls this year could leave him with decent innings when all is said and done.
|
|
| | | 162 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 38261518
Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 19:46
|
23.10 Raul Mondesi, 2B, KC
No real serious expectations for him. I wanted a backup at 2B to start the season and Mondesi was just named the starter. I doubt he will continue to hit at his current pace once the season starts but he should get a chance to do that for the first few weeks. I’ll plug him in when I can to log the GP’s and hope for a few cheap steals. I’ll keep him as long as he’s decent. Chose him over Kolten Wong, who was probably a safer pick for the long term but if Mondesi truly has turned the corner and is serviceable, then his speed upside is worth the gamble.
|
|
| | | 163 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 38261518
Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 19:47
|
24.07 Joe Kelly, RP, BOS
I had Michael Saunders at the top of a 2 man queue but he was snatched. It took a long time for my pick to come up and when I finally got a chance to check the day’s news, I saw that Thornburg was headed to the DL. I had my eye on him earlier in the draft before he was taken, as I had an odd hunch that maybe Kimbrel unexpectedly has a bad year. I know it’s not very likely, but since that was my hunch that made me want Thornburg, I moved Kelly up to the top of my queue. I’d still rather have Saunders and wait for another RP in the next round, but at this late stage, there’s not much else to go on but hunches.
|
|
| | | 164 | Boozer
ID: 971677
Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 21:32
|
13.14 Yoan Moncada CWS 2B
Another of several spots I probably should have picked up some more saves.
But this guy was too hard to pass up. He'll be a monster at some point, just hope it's sooner than later.
I'll make room to hold him.
14.03 Dylan Bundy SP, Bal
he and Gausman will be #1 and #2 in Baltimore for a while, with Tillman uncertain.
He's 24 and Gausman is 26, I like the fact their being thrown into positions of responsibility early. And there is a security to it.
Bundy not having a great spring but lets see when it counts.
i think he'll end up being a solid 14th round pick and I dont think he wouldve lasted till it came back around
|
|
| | | 165 | Dave R
ID: 442121620
Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 21:34
|
22.06 Eduardo Rodriguez SP Bos
I was looking for another SP, and while there were some safer options I thought I'd give Eduardo a shot. Who know, he may end up back in the minors when Boston's staff is fully healthy.
He got off to a slow start last year recovering from a knee injury, but after the All Star break fashioned an ERA of 3.24, WHIP of 1.13, while striking out better than a batter per inning in 14 starts. If he can carry that over to this year, I would think he can keep a spot in the rotation.
Of course , he just got shelled yesterday, but other than that he had pitched well this spring.
23.11 Brad Brach RP Bal
I have no delusions of Brad getting a closer gig with Britton on the Orioles, unless there's an injury, and that might not even get him a full time job. But he's been a reliable set up man for Baltimore, last year posting an ERA of 2.04, WHIP of 1.05 all while striking out 92 batter in 79 innings, picking up a couple saves along the way. Those kind of numbers can only help my staff.
24.06 Matt Duffy 3B Tam
I know he's hurt and I know he's had a slower recovery than usual. I know he wasn't drafted in any other RIBC leagues. But I thought he was worth a gamble as the 374th player taken. Duffy is listed as 3B in ESPN, but when he returns he will be the starting SS for Tampa. This is the guy who finished 2nd as the National League ROY in 2015, when he slashed .295/.334/.428 with 12 homers and 77 RBI, adding a dozen SB's
Matt is still only 26 so you cant say his best years are behind him, I think they're yet to come.
But who knows, maybe I'll become impatient and toss him back on the scrap pile.
|
|
| | | 166 | Bmd
ID: 825715
Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 21:54
|
22.09 Trevor Bauer, SP, CLE
Was surprised he stuck around but shouldn't be as pitching just seems so plentiful this year. The difference between Bauer and Gerrit Cole isn't that much. Really kicking myself for drafting Martinez, Carrasco, and Cole now. Bauer has the potential to be a stud. He's walk prone but he seems like at any given time he could put it all together. Looking for slightly improved numbers than last year but even if he repeats them it's not too bad. I can bench him for the tougher matchups and still maintain a good k rate and get some wins.
|
|
| | | 167 | Boozer
ID: 971677
Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 21:55
|
15.14 J.A. Happ, Tor, SP
Pleased with this pick. getting older but healthy and hard to argue with last years numbers 195IP, 3.18/1.17/163SO. 20 wins? wat??
Not bad for 4th starter
16.03 Matt Wieters C wash
So march 22nd was my birthday and both these picks were made the next morning by queue. I was happy just not to have held things up.
How much damage could I do queing up some catchers? and maybe Wieters just needs a change of scenery, and a full season. hard to believe hes already getting old
|
|
| | | 168 | Boozer
ID: 971677
Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 22:19
|
17.14 Ervin Santana SP Minn
Ive been a believer in stocking up on Starting pitching once most positions are adequately covered.
Then you throw them against the wall and see who sticks.
Had Ervin for awhile last year, he was a decent producer, and he's #1 on a bad team, has that going for him too.
18.03 Robert Gsellman SP Mets
Ok one more young SP. Kryptonite He'll start the season in the rotation and have a chance to make something happen, if he does im on that train, if not he gets the ax.
|
|
| | | 169 | youngroman
ID: 19238238
Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 04:35
|
21.06 Luke Gregerson, RP, HOU
I am now down to catcher or reliever. all the catchers are similar, so reliever it is.
for a reliever you mainly search for 2 things: good K-rate and chance for saves in case the regular closer is not available because of injury, overwork or suckiness. Gregerson closed for Team USA in the WBC, he closed in the past, so if anything happens to Giles he will close for Houston. and he will be good at it. until then he will provide me with more K's than IP's and solid ratios.
22.11 Hunter Stickland, RP, SF
after ignoring relievers for over 10 rounds I take 2 in succession and maybe extend that streak to 3 with my next pick.
as with my previous pick I am targeting a closer in the waiting. He is a Melancon injury away from being the closer. It is also expected that the Giants will win a lot of games, which will result in a lot of save opportunities. on the off days of Melancon the Giants will hopefully turn to Strickland.
23.06 Kevin Siegrist, RP, STL
3rd reliever and closer candidate in a row. There were not many options available that are the #2 choice for saves on their team. it helps that he strikes out more than 1 batter per inning and that his percentages should not be as questionable as those of others at this point.
I now have 5 starters and 2 closers and 3 setup man as my pitching staff. 5x200 + 5x75 = 1375 IP. right on target. I guess I am finished and will turn to hitting with my last 2 picks.
24.11 Yan Gomes, C, CLE
at the start of the draft I decided that I will pass on catcher as long as possible. whether that is the last round or the round before does not matter as long as it is in round 20+.
the problem I have with catchers is that most of them see probably 120-130 games a year. thats 20% less than other position players. In addition to that the stats of most catchers after the top 5 are bad. They are on the replacement player level, were the playing at a different position.
my planned strategy this year is to play matchups with my catcher slot to maximize the games played and hopefully also the counting stats of R and RBI. I don't care about SB for a catcher. The only problem I see here is that I am living in Europe, so at the time a lot of lineups are posted, knowing which catchers are playing that day, is at a time I am usually not awake anymore. I need to rely on some twitter accounts of local correspondents to see if my preferred options for the day are indeed playing. what makes matters worse are these early games and that pickups for 7pm games can't be done at 6pm when there was a single 2pm game earlier that day. So I need to find metrics of the likelihood that a catcher is starting that day. this looks like a lot of trouble and I may abandon my strategy after a few weeks. hopefully not because of the timing constraints, but because I found a player that performs like Gary Sanchez, who ideally plays DH on days he is not catching. I guess its time to wake up and stop dreaming.
25.06 Nick Markakis, ATL, OF
with JD Martinez injured and Kris Bryant having 3B eligibility I only have Renfroe and Judge (starting job not yet settled) to back them up. I felt the need for another OF if there would be one near the top of draftable players.
my top OF was Markakis. he has an excellent OBP and a bad SLG. There is some talk that he might trade in some AVG for some power which would translate into a slightly higher SLG. I'll take that.
in the end I would feel comfortable inserting him into my lineup if JD is still out, Judge the backup and one of my others is sitting out a game.
|
|
| | | 170 | mailedfoot
ID: 531322718
Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 07:23
|
22.12 Cameron Maybin, OF, LAA
Selected Maybin to provide OF depth; he posted a .383/.418 line last year which was boosted by a .383 BABIP, so some regression is to be expected. But he also swiped 15 bags in 94 games; I look for him to contribute to my SB total. He’s slated to be the everyday LF for the Angels so should get plenty of at bats if he can stay healthy and productive.
23.05 Chris Devenski, RP, HOU
Devenski is a long relief/spot starter who put up some interesting numbers last year over 108 innings: 8.64 K/9, 2.34 FIP, and 0.91 whip. He was arguably pitching about as well as anyone over the second half of the year. I am not really sure how much impact a guy like this can have on a fantasy team but am thinking if he keeps pitching like this, he will get innings somewhere.
24.12 Scott Schebler, OF, CIN
More OF/UTIL depth; Schebler hit .330/.432 last year and has the potential to take over the RF job in Cincinnati. This is basically a round 24, young guy upside play.
25.05 Jed Lowrie, 2B, OAK
Welcome aboard, Jed! You get to round out my MI crew and can hang around as long as you stay healthy and keep hitting. Based on my past experience with you, it will probably only be a matter of days.
|
|
| | | 171 | Fosten
ID: 4097314
Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 09:33
|
6.15 Jeurys Familia, RP, NYM
aka. “Good Team, Good SP = Many Saves” or my dad calls him “The Big Guy”. Last round, I took Rendon with only 3 closers total off the board, and then another 10 closers went before my next pick. Brutal. I was targeting Belt. I had cold sweats over Schwarber. I had visions of pairing Allen/Miller, just as jdrenbarger did, congrats. None of that worked out. Betting Familia’s suspension is short, and this is a lock for 40 saves behind the best pitching staff in baseball.
7.02 Aledmys Diaz, SS, STL
aka. “SS sooooo weak, I can’t stand it” Gerrit Cole, how can I pass on thee? Last year, I took Seager/Correa and it taught me the importance of SS in a MI league. I’ve learned my lesson, and I’ll teach it to you too! Aledmys wasn’t on my many people’s radar before last season, and now coming off a .879 OPS season, this year he’s somehow undervalued again. Shucks, he’s not much different than them fancy first-round SS. Cardinals are rarely wrong about talent. Time to invest.
8.15 David Price, SP, BOS
aka. "Catch the falling prices!” After Price’s injury, nobody wanted him, and to tell you the truth, neither did I. Was really hoping somebody would draft Price, so I wouldn’t have to. Take my wife, please! Wanted to go Watson here, also looked at Zobrist, and SZ confirmed my horror by taking both with the next 2 picks. But when a top 10 SP falls to 127 overall, I just can’t say no. Dear David, please get plenty of rest, you services are NOT needed on my fantasy team during April, take your time and relax, an apple a day...
9.02 Yasmani Grandal, C, LAD
aka. “OBP catcher? I didn’t know they made those anymore!” When holt took Contreras/Benintendi, that completely changed my draft plans, kudos. The draft grid looks like a chess board, I’m threading needles and walking tightropes, ready to maneuver battleships at Will(son). Grandal/Gattis represented a 0.40 OPS gap over the next catchers. Looked at all the OF still available, and couldn’t see the benefit. UPDATE: However, that was before 9 OF went in a row! Jeez, you guys are gluttons for punishment. I didn’t even draft an OF, and I feel like I started a trend. That tightrope just got a little thinner.
10.15 Delin Betances, RP, NYY
aka. “If I’m not a closer, then trade me.” After that arbitration mess, I own Betances most everywhere this year, riding the wave of hope that he’s traded. The Yankees are looking to cash in relievers for prospects, and this is the big piece they’ll be shopping. After posting a 1.45 ERA during his first two years in the league, Betances followed that up with a 1.78 FIP last season. Delin’s bags are packed, and he's ready to go. He hates to wake you up to say goodbye.
|
|
| | | 172 | Fosten
ID: 4097314
Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 10:48
|
11.02 Steven Matz, SP, NYM
aka. “Park Place. Better than Ezra (Noah).”
Syndergaard/Matz! Now I can start building hotels.
Here’s a picture of my 11th round pick holding a shark.
12.15 Julio Urias, SP, LAD
aka. “Clearly, I’m paying for elite innings.” The consensus valuation is all over the place on Urias this year. With the innings limit, some think his ranking is way too high. So you're telling me, I only get 140 innings of sub 3 ERA from the best prospect in baseball? What?! Oh hell no! Hold up. Huh?? Oh okay. On a per-inning basis, he’s the 3rd most valuable SP behind Syndergaard and Matz. Doesn’t eat sandwiches. Doesn’t punch sharks. Does enjoy listening to heavy metal Christmas music. These are my pitchers, and you should be very much afraid.
13.02 Raisel Iglesias, CIN
aka. “Well if you’re just going to limp in, I’m going to Raise’l.” Most people think this Cincy situation is closer-by-committee, but I think its one of them new-fangled saber-bullpens. So I’m not running away from it, I’m running towards it! Forecasting 100 innings apiece for Iglesias and Lorenzen. Watched Iglesias hang 3 inning donuts too many times last year not to invest. He’s basically Andrew Miller, 6 rounds later. By pairing Iglesias with Urias, this Frankenpitcher, of my own creation, should provide 250 ip, 9.5 K/9, and a sub 3 ERA in the 12th/13th round. I typed that, you read that.
14.15 Hector Neris, RP, PHI
aka. “Double mint gum. See 15.02” After the wild closer run from a few days ago, I feel like everybody just went to sleep on RP. Beuller? Beuller? Both Neris/Jeanmar were still available at the end of this round and I couldn’t believe my salivating eyes. That's how much I was salivating! When doubling up, end-tier bubble grabs provide extra coins and bonus time. By drafting on the turn, I can easily handcuff this developing situation. I would have taken Neris anyway, but now I just feel sleazy about this. Someone please stop me.
15.02 Jeanmar Gomez, RP, PHI
aka. “Two for a dollar. See 14.15." Look what I found! Would never have considered drafting Jeanmar in a million years, had I not drafted Neris the pick before. Very unhappy about wasting a pick. However, I am very happy to handcuff Filthy Philly saves this late, after all the closers were off the board. If Jeanmar is still on my team by the ASB, something went very very wrong. Call for HELP.
|
|
| | | 173 | mmikulka
ID: 57791610
Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 10:51
|
23.07 Trevor Plouffe - 3B, OAK
I wanted a backup for Longoria, and had been looking at Prado and Plouffe for a few rounds. I expected to end up with Prado because of his injury, but he was taken a few picks ahead of mine.
Hopefully Plouffe's 2017 will be more like his 2014-2015 than his 2016. It's a contract year, and the As generally do a good job getting the most out of their players.
Improvement or not, he has a fairly stable floor. It would surprising if his OPS reached .750, but it would be even more surprising if it dropped below .720. He'll be a servicable fill-in and he won't kill my team if I need to start him consistently: that's all I'm looking for out of this pick.
|
|
| | | 174 | mmikulka
ID: 57791610
Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 11:02
|
24.10 Jaime Garcia - SP, ATL
I considered taking Drew Storen to see if he ends up getting the first few saves of the year with Raisel Iglesias potentially still out, then spot starting pitchers with this slot until one sticks.
I decided that I liked Jaime Garcia's potential enough to give him a chance instead. His career ERA of 3.57 is only available this late because of he has been so injury-plagued. He reached 170 IP last year and is healthy at the moment, so I'll give him a chance and see how long he can stay productive and off the DL.
|
|
| | | 175 | Uptown @work
ID: 481322917
Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 11:20
|
25.10 Steven Souza Jr, OF, TB
Power source potential with regular playing time. Nothing much else to say about him.
|
|
| | | 176 | mmikulka
ID: 57791610
Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 11:35
|
25.07 Drew Storen - RP, CIN
Like youngroman, I will be streaming catchers, which has been my plan ever since Lucroy was drafted.
I'm not sure why I hadn't thought to do it before this year: it solves the problem of playing time, and with 14+ options most days, there are usually plenty of matchup advantages to choose from.
It also creates a permanent free slot for me to be creative with. Maybe I want to spot-start a pitcher or middle infielder or add a RP to see how a volatile closer situation plays out: I can just go without a starting catcher for a day or two. I can roster other players for 16 days over the course of the season and still have 162 games started from my C position.
With that in mind, there was no good reason for me to draft a catcher at all, so I took Storen. Iglesias seems like he'll probably be ready for the beginning of the season, but it's no sure thing, and the assumption that he'll get the lion's share of the saves may be wishful thinking. He may not even be the top choice.
Storen has looked awful in spring training, but it's worth giving him a shot and seeing what his role is: 1/3 of the saves would have plenty of value. If Iglesias is healthy and gets the first few saves, then I'll drop Storen and begin streaming my catchers.
|
|
| | | 177 | Dave R
ID: 530392313
Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 12:07
|
Matt Strahm RP Kan
Last pick. Although mentioned as a possible starter, Matt will start the season in the bullpen for the Royals. I'm OK with that, and if he's ever moved in the starting rotation, I'm OK with that also
I'm also OK with numbers along the lines of what he produced last year. After being called up at the end of July, he posted an ERA of 1.23 and WHIP of 1.09 and struck out 30 batters in only 22 innings, a 12.3K/9 average.
I'm sure I could have done worse.
|
|
| | | 179 | Fosten
ID: 4097314
Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 13:18
|
16.15 Manuel Margot, OF, SDG
aka. “Is Round 16 too early to take a 2nd outfielder?” Hello, I am a value pick, seeking a breakout season for friendship or possibly something more. Of course everyone looks at my sensuous 35 steals, but there’s also some shy raw power here that may translate eventually. You may be tempted to go with another San Diego outfielder, and that's not a bad idea, because Renfroe will probably have the better season, but I am the more valuable fantasy player overall. Why not take us both? When you wait this long for outfielders, steals aren’t ever a need, they're an inevitability. Are we a match?
17.02 Steve Pearce, 1B, TOR
aka. “I can’t believe I’m drafting Steve Pearce.” Hear me out. With a full time job in Toronto’s outfield, this OPS monster could be chomping past 500 AB. Sure, I could wait another couple rounds for Moreland or Mauer, but even in a real life platoon, Pearce is useful as a fantasy platoon. With so many OF already taken, I have an inside straight draw that Renfroe makes it back to me. If not, I won’t be heartbroken, because Pearce will be eligible to drop fly balls in the outfield soon enough. Let's say maybe he finds some 2B eligibility and rates like Dan Murphy. Let's just say that, and then let's stop talking, for good.
18.15 Orlando Arcia, SS, MIN
aka. “I think I can get steals later.” I don't always like my job, certainly, there are times when it is not fun. I'm strictly here on business to acquire all the SS that are left. This was a premeditated stack. While Seager/Correa was nice last year, what I quickly discovered was the value isn’t in the top tier, the value is going 2-3 deep at the position. I’m not betting on a Arcia breakout, I’m simply drafting the position dry. Had Renfroe fallen another 4 picks, it would have been hard for me to pass. So when you're sifting through MI free agents later in the season, blame youngroman, and then ask him to trade me Syndergaard in g20. Thanks.
19.02 Alcides Escobar, SS, KC
aka. “SS and steals, at bulk prices. After Alcides, beware of dragons!" We had a talk. I said, "Look, I don't want nuthin' fancy. I won’t be playing an outfielder at utility, so the team is doubling down, twice, on both steals and SS, which is a Maths quadruple, or a Tetris. All I need you to do is post career average projections." He said, "Fine by me, I'm just here to clock in and clock out." Alcides seems to get better with age, should be consistent, and infield steals are getting thin. Gotta catch ‘em all!
20.15 Matt Bush, RP, TEX
aka. “Closer by June” I don’t think Sam Dyson’s grasp on the job is as firm as people think. Bush profiles similar to the other elite ERA pitchers I own, and should be an important fantasy piece all season, regardless of whether or not he captures saves. Probably should have went Lorenzen here, and handcuffed Cincy like I handcuffed Philly, but as a former #1 draft pick Bush draws a lot of fantasy interest. Did I mention that he was drafted 13 years ago, as a high school SS, as a non-consensus #1 in a weak draft class, because Padres owner John Moore was unwilling to pay large signing bonuses to the top Scott Boras clients? I probably shouldn't mention that.
|
|
| | | 180 | jdrenbarger
Dude
ID: 04035768
Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 13:43
|
20.14 Moss, Brandon - KAN – 1B
12 hitters and seven pitchers at this point, and I’m looking to fill at least three of my bench slots with hitters in order to come as close to the GP maximums as I can; ideally, on this turn, a K/IP and solid ratios reliever with at least a shot at saves at some point and a decent bat to fill in as needed. Lorenzen and Bush were at the top of my reliever queue and Moss, with dual 1B/OF eligibility, was the only hitter that stuck out to me ... thinking at least one of the two relievers would survive the four picks until my next one, I grabbed Moss.
He’s nothing special, but he’s solid for this point in the draft and he should easily exceed 400 AB as KC’s primary DH. Three year average line of 461 AB/61/69/2/.755 OPS (.314/.441), and a spike last year vs RHP of a .828 OPS (albeit a barely .300 OBP). If he hits RHP with a .500+ SLG again this year, he’ll make a nice spot play at either CI or OF.
21.03 Dull, Ryan - OAK – RP
Both Lorenzen and Bush go within the four picks preceding this one, leaving Dull at the top of my queue (with Gregerson and Dayton immediately following, and they both go within the following four picks). Oakland’s best reliever a year ago (74.1 IP/73 K/5 W/3 S/2.42/0.87/.557 OPS against), he’s admittedly a longshot for saves ... that said, the end of Oakland’s bullpen is mostly a collection of lesser arms (albeit with closing experience), and I don’t think it’s inconceivable that he’ll get a shot at some point. If he doesn’t, a stat line close to last year’s will be plenty good enough for me.
22.14 Davies, Zach - MIL – SP
Again looking for a hitter and a pitcher on this turn, with a 3B-eligible and my fifth SP my targets. Prado was my clear preference, given the remaining choices at 3B, and Davies was my clear pitching preference. I hoped that Prado’s WBC injury and being on the DL to start the season would further depress his perceived value, and accordingly took Davies.
Only 24, he put up a 135 K/11 W/3.97/1.25 line over 163.1 IP in his first full year in the majors and 3.48/1.17 over his last 20 starts. ESPN’s 2017 projection of 157 K/11 W/3.64/1.19 is frankly better than almost anyone else’s, but he’s got some upside and will be a great value if he pitches to it. Generally going about 3 (adjusted) rounds earlier in other drafts, and went in rounds 18/19/22 in the three other RIBC drafts.
23.03 Prado, Martin - MIA – 3B
Expressly looking for a 3B here to back up Solarte and free up Baez to mostly fill MI positions. Principally considered Prado/Plouffe/Duffy/(undrafted), with Prado’s track record of consistency and superior OBP the primary selling points. His exceptional performance against LHP (three year average OPS of .971 (.433/.538)) sealed it – he’s another spot-start candidate to help address the relatively poor OBP and SLG projected for my team as a whole. Can’t say that I’d have taken Plouffe instead, had I known they’re now suspecting Prado will miss the first month of the season ... but I can’t say I wouldn’t have, either.
24.14 Buchter, Ryan - SDG – RP
A purely speculative handcuff of my second closer (of only two); while the conventional wisdom is that Capps replaces Maurer in SDG if Maurer falters (and maybe even if he doesn’t), I’m not completely buying that Capps will be all the way back from Tommy John surgery this year and, if he proves not to be, I believe Buchter is the other guy to have in this bullpen. 78 K/3 W/1 S/2.86/1.03 in 67 IP last year – his first full season in the majors. If he puts up those numbers again, he’ll be a solid part of my rotation even if he never gets a shot at the closer’s role.
25.03 Castillo, Welington - BAL – C
I’ve intended to take a second catcher ever since I drafted Vogt and his .603 OPS vs LHP over the past three years. Considered three others, all still undrafted, and pretty quickly settled on Castillo. Should see roughly 400 AB over the course of the season, historically very good against LHP (.836 OPS over the past three years), and even better against RHP than Vogt is against LHP (.688 OPS, again over the past three years). With the two of them, I should be able to come pretty close to the GP max at catcher, and without too many days of a sub-.700 OPS bat in the lineup at catcher.
|
|
| | | 181 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 14:32
|
24.16.384 Span, Denard - SF - OF
I was going to shake my fist at ksoze for taking Ryu because holt was upset at this, which caused him to take Michael Saunders, who I really coveted. But Uptown said that he would have taken Saunders, so I guess I should have taken him at 23.01 if I really wanted him.
I like Denard Span, he is one of many former Twin outfielders who were traded away for a few non-magical beans. Baseball Prospectus likes him to have a +740 OPS with 20 steals and over 70 runs for the Giants. I will not shake a stick at that. You know, Saunders is bound to get hurt... I'm okay with this turn of events. Had Fosten taken Span, I would have gone with beard guy Werth.
25.01.385 Harris, Will - HOU - RP
There may be a second-in-line closer out there, a handcuff not taken yet, but not really any obvious ones, so I went with a guy with a projected 9.5K/9 and below 3 ERA. If he continues to be a solid contributor to ratios and K/9, he can stay. If a new guy starts the season lights out and becomes the new closer in waiting on some team, Harris will understand why I'm kicking him to the curb. Would have taken Rondon had Guru not.
|
|
| | | 182 | kdl212
ID: 43240617
Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 18:38
|
23.13 Kolten Wong, 2B, STL
This guy simply isn't as good as he thinks he is. And he isn't helping his cause by saying he'd prefer to be traded than to be platooned. And what kind of nonsense is that, anyway. If I had the chance to work only 4 days out of 7, and get full salary, I'd take it right away. I made this pick because I thought Wong had more potential trade value if he starts off hot than anyone else I could see. And I was feeling light on stolen bases.
24.04 Delino Deshields, OF, TEX
This guy was super-hyped last year (he went in the 11th round of the RIBC draft). After a solid spring with a ton of walks and stolen bases, there's talk of him starting in left field and leading off for the Rangers. If he sticks, I'm looking at 80 runs and 30 stolen bases with an OBP around .333 from round 24! This was the kind of upside pick this creaky-old team needed.
25.13 Koji Uehara, RP, CHC
No idea who is next in line in Chicago when Wade Davis's arm explodes. Folks have already drafted Edwards and Rondon. But I simply couldn't pass up one last 40+ year-old for this team. If I lucked into 25 saves, spectacular. If I end up with 9k/9 and a WHiP of 1.00 over 50 innings with a few wins thrown in, that's fine too.
|
|
| | | 183 | Boozer
ID: 971677
Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 19:59
|
19.14 Santiago Casilla RP, Oak
Looked like a pretty good plan, a guy who could have save chances drop in his lap. Had 31 saves last year, and on a team thats going to be "fluid" at closer.
Looking at relief pitchers now for the next few picks anyway.
Then they started him today and he got lit up like a christmas tree, got one guy out before the hook. So he has that going for him now.
|
|
| | | 184 | Boozer
ID: 971677
Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 20:20
|
20.03 Brandon Phillips, 2B, Atl
Had to have another MI if Im going to try to hold Moncata.
if he stays healthy and gets the AB's, he's mildly productive, and doesnt really hurt, he'll have a drop off if he bats late in the order
And when super-rookie comes up I wont feel bad about dumping him
|
|
| | | 185 | Boozer
ID: 971677
Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 20:48
|
25.14 Jesus Aguilar 1B Milw
Where did this guy come from? 6-3 250lb. Hit 7 homers this spring, batting .466, made the roster, hasnt really had a shot in the majors yet.
Going to back up at 1B but worth the 25th pick imo. I needed a corner guy with this pick anyway
|
|
| | | 186 | ksoze
ID: 7141224
Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 20:54
|
21.15 - Dietrich, Derek - 2B - MIA
In 600 AB's over the last two season's he has an .800 OPS; Prado will start the season on the DL so Dietrich should be playing 3B and add that corner IF eligibility to 2B a couple of weeks into the season. And once Prado returns maybe Gordon will get popped for PED's again to help buy DD more playing time... who knows what can happen! I had a few other 2B/SS types queued up, Lowrie was the only one drafted in the end.
22.02 - Morrison, Logan - 1B - TB
I had Zimmerman and Reynolds queued up here too as I planned to take my 1B backup with this pick. I had Morrison first mainly due to Zimmerman's seemingly career-long injury and recent lack of production history, and the assumption that Reynolds will only get a little bit of starting time before Desmond returns. I don't frankly expect much from LoMo, if I have to rely on him for anymore than spot starts I'm in trouble. But... he might lead off for the Rays, and while his OBP will be horrible for a 1B he might not blow chunks in SLG. Talk about selling myself on a player...
23.15 - Ryu, Hyun-Jin - SP - LAD
Wanted one more SP to ensure I approach the innings limit with the ability to spot start some as necessary. Was considering a few, none of whom ended up being drafted, when it was announced that Ryu had earned the 4th spot in the Dodgers rotation and would NOT begin the year on the DL, so I quickly queued him up first. He put up 3.38/1.19 in 2015, if he stays healthy there's no reason for me to believe that he can't be somewhere close to that in his age 30 season pitching in Dodger stadium; he could be a steal at the 367th pick of the draft.
24.02 - Soo Kim, Hyun - OF - Balt
He ought to be leading off for the O's as his OBP is in the high 3's. Of course, they'll likely hit him in the bottom third of their order vs. righties. If he gets 400 AB's with an .800 OPS, it's great value in round 24, maybe even with 120 + runs/RBI. If he's producing and the O's move him up in the lineup, even better. I'd assumed Holt might take one OF on the turn so I had Markakis ready to go as my back up.
25.15 - Soria, Joakim - RP - KC
Meh. I looked through the remaining RP's for potential "hold your breath and hope something happens to the closer" saves and saw Soria and his lousy 2016 numbers was still available. It appears he's second in line for KC. I likely will bench him initially and keep him there unless he reverts to pre-2016 form, or takes over the closer role. Had another, obviously undrafted, RP in mind in case Soria went before my last pick.
|
|
| | | 187 | Boozer
ID: 971677
Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 21:02
|
21.14 Tyler Thornburg RP Bos
looked like a reasonably safe set up guy to pick in the late rounds. But the next day he was shut down
so he wont be a Boozer very long
|
|
| | | 188 | holt
ID: 57232523
Thu, Mar 30, 2017, 02:01
|
23.16 Saunders, Michael OF PHI
Was set to take Ryu here but no dice.
.338/.478 last season is enough to make Saunders draftable in rd 23. Will probably hit 5th in the order as the Phillies' RF. It seemed silly to not draft him.
24.01 Ramos, Wilson C TAM
I think Ramos will be back in May sometime. Maybe the option to DH will allow him to come back earlier than later. The projections seem to be giving a lot of weight to prior seasons and none to his 2016 season. I had Ramos last year and had zero complaints. I don't know if I'll actually keep him rostered long or not.
25.16 Zimmerman, Ryan 1B WAS
Shot in the dark. There are reasons to believe Zimmerman might have an improved 2017. Conditioning, elevating the ball, possibly not going to the DL. He's only 32, so maybe he can turn it around. I thought he was more like 42, but I see he was only 20 yrs old in his rookie season.
Hmm.
|
|
| | | 189 | Bmd
ID: 825715
Thu, Mar 30, 2017, 16:42
|
23.08 Mark Reynolds, 1B, COL
Not too often you draft a short term rental but that's what Reynolds is. He should receive playing time to start the season but will get pushed to a reserve role when the Rockies get healthy. He might be a spot starter for me even
on that rental period. Not great but can be above average at Coors.
24.09 Matt Adams, 1B, STL
A much slimmer Adams has looked great so far this spring. Will be without a starting position but has started playing in the outfield so might get a few more starts that way. Round 24 guys almost always get dropped at some point. Don't see that changing with Adams.
25.08 Trevor Rosenthal, RP, STL
Late round flier. Didn't put much time into this pick. Rosenthal has been elite and his stuff appears to still be there. His role has changed since he was the closer. I don't see him thriving as a MR so its unlikely he lasts a week on my team
|
|
| | | 190 | twilson
ID: 2221181
Thu, Mar 30, 2017, 18:43
|
10.13 Dansby Swanson, SS, ATL
I thought I might get lucky and have Tulowitzski make it back to me, but a cascade of picks meant that mikulka took him a few picks shy of here. I was right about the OF run, though, which makes my Broxton pick a bit more justifiable.
I still need a shortstop and the next tier down of Brandon Crawford or Dansby Swanson may make sense. Neither one is very exciting, but they should be serviceable. Crawford is a known quantity while Swanson is a youngster entering his first full major season. 5-10 steals with a decent OBP and SLG are my expectation for both.
Rick Porcello is the big dropper by RIBC ADP. There are many reasons to expect his production to drop in his Cy Young follow-up, but his excellent control, team, and healthy past give him a high floor. At this point, he’s my top pitcher.
The closers all have their warts. Jim Johnson is the guy in Atlanta, but that strikeout rate is going to regress significantly. I really don’t like rostering relievers who hurt the rate stats, and there’s a meaningful chance he will qualify. That in turn creates role risk.
Byron Buxton is a dropper compared to external ADP, though not RIBC. As the former top prospect in baseball and still only 23 years old, the ceiling is huge, and he had a great September. Still, I see so many flaws in his game, many of which remained present in that huge September. I don’t think I’m interested here, and I don’t see any other outfielders worth taking in lieu of other needs.
Finally, I could fill my CI with a second third baseman. Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos have both displayed skill development in the past couple years obscured by injury woes. There is good reason to think that both will exceed their projections. As 3B, I think they offer good value here, but I’m less sure it’s there as my CI.
SS is just getting so thin. Even though I missed on Tulo, I think I have to take one of Crawford and Swanson now. I highly doubt either will be there come pick 189. It was a coin flip between the two. Crawford is a better hitter at this point in time, but Swanson is supposedly hitting second for the Braves. That would give me a little bit of exposure to Freddie Freeman, who I like this year with the new stadium in Atlanta. That’s the pick.
11.04 Marcus Stroman, SP, TOR
I lost Porcello on the turn after I had managed to sell myself on him in the interim, so I went back to the board for another look. Still wasn’t into the closers, but Moustakas remained on the table. I did additional research on a whole bunch of SP to figure out if anyone was worth a pick.
Industry opinion leaned toward Marcus Stroman, while Aaron Nola also drew my eye. Nola was cruising along at the start of 2016 before a crash that was very likely related to elbow issues. He appears to be healthy now, which gives him SP1 potential due to his contact management, command, and curveball. I don’t think Stroman has the same ceiling, but he isn’t devoid of upside. He got more strikeouts and popups as the season went along while maintaining his league-leading GB%. Those grounders and his ability to hit 200 IP also give him a pretty solid floor.
NFBC ADP provided reason to believe that Nola might make it through the long turn, but RIBC ADP (led by Judy with pick 52 in AAA ESPN) suggested otherwise. Everybody has their own pitching preferences at this point, so nothing can be taken for granted in terms of availability.
I made the call to pass on CI and go with my second pitcher. I wanted to take Nola, but ultimately defaulted to industry consensus with Stroman. That’ll presumably give me two pitching anchors before I begin to take my shots on high fliers later on.
|
|
| | | 191 | twilson
ID: 2221181
Thu, Mar 30, 2017, 20:31
|
22.13 Charlie Morton, SP, HOU
I want to finish off with RP/RP/SP/hitter, in some order. I don’t see any cliffs remaining at those positions, so I’m going to organize the picks by upside and likelihood of any targets being taken by others.
There are a few starters I like, some of which are being taken in other RIBC drafts and others that are not. If I go for one now, I will decide between Charlie Morton and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Morton is a guy I drafted back in 2014 after he gave me 50 solid IP the year before. That’s really the last time he was fantasy relevant, as struggles with injury and lefties have limited his results. With that said, he’s shown signs in the last two spring trainings that he may have found a way to add a couple MPH to his fastball at the age of 32. This adds strikeout upside to his heavy groundball profile.
Ryu was also really good back in 2013 and 2014, much better than Charlie Morton ever has been. He’s been dealing with major shoulder issues ever since, going under the knife more than once. It’s extremely difficult for pitchers to come back from injuries to the pitching shoulder, with Brandon Webb as the poster child. I’d really like to see Ryu successfully return to prominence, but I always take a “wait and see” stance until proven otherwise. The price is cheap, so I’m tempted to give it a go.
[undrafted] is an excellent contact manager in a less than ideal environment. I’d be comfortable going with him as my final SP if I wait until my final pair of picks to fill the slot.
I’ll talk about RP in my 23.04 rationale. I have a couple outfielders in mind on the hitting side, neither of which is all that likely to be taken. Thus, in the absence of other desires, I am taking a starter. Ryu’s ceiling is higher, and writing this rationale now I am wishing I had gone that direction, but something about Morton enticed me into going with him.
23.04 Felipe Rivero, RP, PIT
After taking Morton at 22.13, I’m down to RP/RP/hitter on my wish list. I’m going to take a reliever here and leave one of each for my final pair.
One guy I’ve been looking at for a couple rounds is Felipe Rivero. His ratios last year were subpar for the bullpen, but I think he pitched better than they show. He increased his ability to draw swinging strikes, but sacrificed a little control at the same time. If he can cut down on the walks a bit, which I think is quite possible, he’ll be a top RP arm. He also profiles as a much more traditional closer than the incumbent Watson. Watson is a very good pitcher who significantly limits hard contact, but he’s 31 and only has 20 career saves to his credit. Pirates management has said all the right things so far, but I can see Watson losing his job relatively quickly if his poor spring performance carries over into April. I should also note the risk of Daniel Hudson getting first shot as closer if that scenario plays out.
Rivero is fairly likely to go undrafted if I don’t take him, so I can probably wait if I see another RP of interest. Hector Rondon may be just the guy. Even in a down season last year, he kept his WHIP below 1.00. It’s unlikely he’ll give up as many homers again, so his ERA should return to the mid 2s with a strikeout per IP. Wade Davis is another closer struggling in the spring, though I give Carl Edwards a better shot at promotion than Rondon.
I don’t really think Rondon will be in the save mix in April, so I’d rather just take Rivero now and worry about finding another reliever to draft later.
24.13 Darren O’Day, RP, BAL
My pitching squad could use one more infusion of quality IP before the draft is done, so I’d like to take a RP here. The ideal pick would give me Ks, solid ratios, and an outside shot at some saves. I looked at a bunch of names but wasn’t able to find all three in the same package. Thus, I am forced to choose two of the three qualities. I don’t like rostering players whose talent I don’t believe in if I can help it, so I’m just going to suck it up and take the best pitcher I can find, saves be damned.
My favorite RIBC pitcher of all time, Koji Uehara, is one possibility. His WHIP and K rate are still top tier, but age has begun to catch up with him just a little. He’s about to turn 42, so it’s understandable! I think there are three guys in the Cubs pen more likely to close, but it’s not completely impossible that he can snag a few as the year goes along.
I can also go with Darren O’Day, another veteran of past twilson squads. His performance declined more last year than Uehara, but injuries are a likely culprit. He’s looking very strong in spring training. More than a handful of saves are out of the question, but that doesn’t mean he won’t have value as roster glue.
I think O’Day is the most likely remaining pitcher to pitch to a sub-2 ERA and sub-1 WHIP, so he’s my guy.
25.04 Ben Revere, OF, PHI
I wanted another hitter here to fill out my roster. It’s always such a struggle to maintain a full lineup in RIBC given the short bench, so I wanted a 3/1 split between offense and pitching. I would have preferred a MI here all else being equal, but outfield offers the best potential for a difference maker. I already have six players on the roster that qualify at OF plus a DH beyond that, so there’s no reason to take an everyday guy with a limited ceiling.
I have two names in mind, Ben Revere and [undrafted]. Revere is a year removed from back-to-back $15 seasons. He has absolutely no power, but does a good job of getting on base (2016 excluded) and stealing when the opportunity presents itself. I like his chance to provide me with cheap steals as long as he gets the playing time. He’s currently behind Cameron Maybin in the Angels pecking order but has outperformed Maybin in spring training.
[undrafted] was suggested by my father, who saw him hit in spring training and came away impressed. He’s definitely an off-the-radar name, and the playing time isn’t there as of yet, but I’m definitely going to keep an eye on him as the season gets going.
At this point, my team is relying on Hernan Perez to play well and often enough to stay afloat in SB, so it makes sense to take another stab at the category with my final pick.
|
|
| | | 192 | twilson
ID: 2221181
Thu, Mar 30, 2017, 21:10
|
20.13 Ivan Nova, SP, PIT
We’re getting into the late rounds now. Time to look at what I want my final roster to look like. I still need a few pitchers to fill out my starting lineup, but that was planned. I really want a backup 1B to maximize ABs out of my 1B and CI slots, and I have a few viable options. A backup shortstop would be perfect, but nothing is left. Another 2B would be good, but the pickings are slim there too. I’ll take at least one more hitter beyond the 1B if just for sheer volume. Pitching will most likely be a split of two starters and two relievers.
There are three veteran 1B on the board I wouldn’t mind owning: Mitch Moreland, Brandon Moss, and Joe Mauer. Moreland is a clear dropper by RIBC ADP. Moss should go around now, and Mauer could drop a little further. I like Mauer best. His batted ball profile was better than his results, and he managed to up his walk rate beyond its already strong level. Moreland is a known quantity moving to a top offense, but he is limited to a platoon role. Moss is also pretty easy to project. Not quite as good a hitter as Moreland, but should play more often.
I failed to sell myself on any of the available relievers as a good saves sleeper, so I passed there. I can see a few starters I wouldn’t mind owning, but nobody is leaping off the page. Ivan Nova just stopped walking people after his midseason trade to Pittsburgh, and he’s kept it up thus far in the spring. Charlie Morton has suddenly added velocity to his heavy sinker profile. Eduardo Rodriguez is a great contact manager and has a great pedigree, but the risk of blowups is quite real.
Honestly, I was out of the house for this pair of picks, so I failed to fully remind myself about the contact management aspect at the time. If I had, he would’ve been the pick. As it was, Nova offered enough intrigue as a low WHIP guy to justify a pick. I figured I would grab Mauer on the flip side to complete the turn.
21.04 Mitch Moreland, 1B, BOS
Should’ve taken Mauer at 20.13! I do like him for a rebound year. Moss was taken, too, but I prefer Moreland to him. Moreland is in Boston now after a number of years with the Rangers. His ratios aren’t anything special while still being plenty adequate, and he’s limited to the strong side of a platoon, but he’s currently penciled into the 5 hole in the Red Sox lineup on days when they face righties. That would give him a good opportunity to rack up healthy R/RBI numbers in a strong offensive environment. This was probably my easiest pick of the draft.
|
|
| | | 193 | twilson
ID: 2221181
Thu, Mar 30, 2017, 21:45
|
18.13 Howie Kendrick, 2B/OF, PHI
After passing on Schimpf last turn, I have to take a MI before absolutely everyone is gone. As expected, Howie Kendrick is still there. Brandon Phillips dropped, too, which I didn’t quite anticipate. Kendrick was basically the same player last year as he has been for years, but the babip gods failed to smile in his direction. His first half was godawful; I should know, as I owned him! The one good thing he did was boost his walk rate, which I hope he carries over as he transitions to Philadelphia. I do see some risk that he could lose his job to younger players if he slumps or the team falls out of contention.
Brandon Phillips is also very consistent. Similar OBP/SLG to Kendrick with some extra SBs thrown in for good measure. I do see some signs of decline in his batted ball profile which gives me a bit of concern.
ADP favors Phillips, but I think I would prefer to own Kendrick despite the lower SB ceiling. I just believe in him more.
As a fun aside, Kendrick is the first hitter and second player (after Koji Uehara) I’ve drafted in three RIBC drafts. Both of the other picks were 12th rounders, so I’m getting a discount on my ownership this year.
19.04 Hernan Perez, 3B/OF, MIL
The mini-run of SS on the short side of the turn basically ensured that I’m not going to be drafting a second SS. I could go in a lot of directions here. I need a CI, and I shouldn’t wait too much longer to fill that slot. If not now, then I will definitely take one next turn. 1B offers Mitch Moreland, Brandon Moss, and Joe Mauer. I think it very likely that at least one will survive to 20.13.
At 3B, I could speculate on Pablo Sandoval to be what I was hoping back in 2015 when he joined the Red Sox, but it’s definitely a “believe when I see it” situation. I’m not buying. He has the opportunity because Travis Shaw headed west to Milwaukee where he should play every day. He was okay in 2016, but I’m not particularly excited as he moves to a lesser park and lineup. Also on the Brewers is Hernan Perez, who came out of absolutely nowhere to steal 34 bases with respectable peripherals. I have a lot of concerns about his ability to both produce and get playing time. I never would’ve taken him at his ADP, but he’s dropped quite a ways and might be worth the risk at this point.
I could also take a shot at finding a closer. I’ve had Sean Doolittle sitting in my queue for a round or two. Ryan Madson is not yet set as the closer, and Doolittle has done nothing but perform for his entire career when healthy.
Finally, I gave Jason Heyward a long look. I was so disappointed last year when I missed him by a pick at 4.10, and here he is a year later available in the 19th round. He’s so talented, but something just seems broken with his approach. I read an article that suggested he could get on track by the all-star break, and that was an optimistic take! As much as I want to, I just don’t see it happening for Heyward this year.
It came down to Perez vs. Doolittle. I sided with hitter over pitcher, SBs over saves.
|
|
| | | 195 | twilson
ID: 2221181
Fri, Mar 31, 2017, 20:40
|
14.13 Adam Ottavino, RP, COL
I wasn’t thrilled to see Lucas Duda get taken, but once I saw it was mikulka, I wasn’t surprised. He loves guys like that. With Duda gone, I’ll be waiting on my backup 1B.
I’m focusing a lot here on pitching. RP from 29 of the 30 MLB teams have been selected, with Philly being the lone holdout. I value Hector Neris above Jeanmar Gomez because I hate owning subpar relievers. I’m also still smarting from my stupid, stupid pick of [undrafted] last year in that same bullpen. Neris is actually a very good pitcher. He gets a lot of strikeouts and seems to have some mild babip suppression skill that keeps his WHIP in check. As long as he keeps playing well, he is very likely in line to take over if and when Gomez slips up.
I also really love Adam Ottavino, though not necessarily for saves at this point. My pre-draft plan targeted him as my second closer. I firmly believe in his skills; it’s an admittedly small sample, but he’s been one of the very best relievers in all of baseball over the past two years. Projection systems are regressing him too heavily toward league average, in my opinion. I hate that management seems likely to give the closer job to Greg Holland and his longer track record, but I think the hook will be pretty quick if he comes out slow in his first mile high experience.
There are bunch of good young starting pitchers worth speculating on. I think my need is more pressing for saves, though, and the large pool of names suggests that I can probably wait and still get a share.
It wouldn’t be a bad idea to fill my MI slot, either. Jedd Gyorko offers fantastic multi-positional eligibility. I think 2016 probably represents his ceiling, though. It’s never exciting to pay up for that. I do still have a couple MI names in mind for later, so I think I’ll pass.
I’ve settled on Neris and Ottavino as my top two names. I think I will likely take the other at 15.04 if he remains available. So who do I like better, and who will be more appealing to the teams on the turn? I like Ottavino better as a pitcher, but I’m projecting Neris for more saves at this point. Ottavino has the higher ADP, but the late breaking news on Holland is undoubtedly depressing his stock. How much, though? Very tough to judge.
I’m taking Ottavino. Hopefully Neris sticks around just a little bit longer.
15.04 Carlos Rodon, SP, CHW
The Ottavino/Neris combo wasn’t meant to be. I didn’t factor in the possibility that somebody would double up on Neris and Gomez as it’s never an approach that I would take, but that proved to be the difference. Anyway, it’s not too much of a downer, but I have to take a look at a lot of extra names now.
Time to dig into that extensive starting pitching tier. There are too many players to give an in-depth run down of my thoughts, so I’m going to stick to capsule reviews in this rationale.
Jon Gray broke free of the Coors Field curse last year to be fantasy relevant by striking out almost 10 batters per 9 IP. His problems were more on the road than at home, which is a twist from the usual.
Sean Manaea showed growth in the second half of 2016. There is obvious K upside, but his contact management concerns me.
Vince Velasquez is an injury-prone strikeout artist. If he reins in the homers or manages 150 IP, he’ll be a good buy. If he does both, he’s a potential stud.
Carlos Rodon is a former third overall draft pick with a great 2016 2H. The WHIP is scary, but I think he deserved much better.
Jerad Eickhoff has had great results in the majors. Fewer strikeouts than the guys above, but has better control and maintains solid contact management skills. 197 IP last year.
Jeff Samardzija is very different than the others under consideration as the old vet of the group. He’s a proven 200+ IP workhorse who responded well to his new NL home. Lacks the Ks, but won’t hurt my WHIP.
I like Rodon best of the bunch. I really do think his 1.39 WHIP was deceptive, and the pedigree only supports my conclusion. I don’t feel a need to take my SP3 here, but I’m also pretty sure that we’re about to have a run on them. I don’t think I’m going to feel much pain at my other positions of need between now and 16.13.
|
|
| | | 196 | twilson
ID: 2221181
Fri, Mar 31, 2017, 21:17
|
12.13 Kendrys Morales, UTL, TOR
Lots of outfielders I like here. I could grab some steals with Kevin Kiermaier, Rajai Davis, or Ender Inciarte. Kiermaier is outstanding center fielder that has been only acceptable at the plate. He significantly upped his walk rate and added SBs last year, which point to a maturing approach. Ultra-athletic defense-first players sometimes manage to figure out the hitting side of things a few years into their career, which gives reason for optimism. His spring has been unremarkable, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.
In the other direction, Marcell Ozuna has big power potential. Another contender is Kendrys Morales. He is a pure DH that I would be forced to stash in my Utility slot. I figure that slot will pretty much always be filled with a fifth OF, though, so I don’t downgrade him too much for this. I think Morales can really surprise people this year. He took a huge step up in batted ball velocity in 2016 which somehow completely failed to show up in his hitting line. Furthermore, Morales will be in a better park and lineup, which should ensure continued strong counting stat totals.
There are still some closers out there to consider. Raisel Iglesias has plenty of upside, but management keeps talking about spreading the saves around, and he’s already dealing with arm concerns. If he’s healthy, he’s the clear top talent in that bullpen, but I always hate drafting pitchers with bum arms.
Brandon Maurer is the other name I’m looking at. He throws hard, gets enough swinging strikes, and was able to hold the job last year after Fernando Rodney was traded. Everything I read out of Padres camp obsesses over Carter Capps, though, and management has refused to officially name him as the guy. I’d be more comfortable if they’d just provide a little reassurance.
I ultimately chose to give more credence to Morales’ batted ball profile than the other alternatives. I haven’t been able to make as much use of that information as I had hoped pre-draft, so I want to plant a flag here with Morales.
13.04 Marcell Ozuna, OF, MIA
Seattle Zen took Kiermaier on the turn, but I still have three solid outfield options on the table. Rajai Davis is a base stealer with a bit of pop. I’ve never drafted him before, but have happily plucked him from the FA pool in multiple RIBC seasons for a multitude of cheap SBs. Any time I can roster speed without killing my ratios is a big positive.
Marcell Ozuna, like Jake Lamb, had a torrid first few months before suffering a hand/wrist injury. He kept playing, but clearly wasn’t the same. In the 13th round, I’m only paying for a repeat of his 2016. I have a feeling the price will be a lot higher this time next year.
Ender Inciarte is a solid value pick, too, if I want a more balanced profile. He’ll lead off for the Braves, get on base at a good clip, and throw in 20 steals. It would be amusing to corner the top of the Atlanta lineup between him and Swanson.
Taking my OF4 is awful for draft flexibility after the Morales pick last round. I’d be locking up my final OF/UTL slot at a time when I’m likely to see value at the position for at least the next four picks. Iglesias and Maurer remain available if I want a reliever. I like Ozuna the best of the bunch, but it’s going to be difficult to compete in SB if I take a zero from him at OF4.
It may not give me the best preseason standing projection, but I think I have to take the value where I see it. My gut says Ozuna is a guy I’m going to want to own this year, and I’ve got a golden opportunity to make that happen. The other options just make me as comfortable as he does.
|
|
| | | 197 | twilson
ID: 2221181
Fri, Mar 31, 2017, 21:46
|
16.13 Yulieski Gurriel, 3B, HOU
My roster is beginning to come together. I need two more offensive starters (MI and CI). I own one more starting pitcher than I expected, but I’m okay with that. Saves and speed are my weak points. I’m not sure what I’m going to do for the latter, but I don’t think SBs are a lost cause as of yet.
The infielder pool keeps consistently thinning out bit by bit. SS is a dead zone and 3B is getting near that point. I could go 1B, but Steve Pearce’s offseason surgery and continuing recovery is a deal breaker for me. I see late options I’d be comfortable with. 2B is more promising. I was surprised when Panik went in the 15th, as he was on my list of likely undervalued players. No matter, I’ve still got four others I can see myself owning.
Ryan Schimpf is the next guy by ADP, and he has an absolutely bizarre profile. At the age of 27, he got his first taste of the majors and proceeded to hit the ball in the air 65% of the time. That’s more than 10% higher than anyone else in baseball. And he hit them hard! In the meantime, he popped the ball up way too much and the few grounders he did hit were dead ducks right into the shift. Schimpf’s walk rate is fantastic, though he pairs it with equally outsized quantity of strikeouts. There are so many ways in which his skillset can absolutely crater at a moment’s notice, but that doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed to happen. He’s already succeeded once, which is the hardest part.
I think Josh Harrison and Brandon Phillips are basically the same player at this point in their careers. Unexciting, in decline, but still useful for fantasy purposes. They also would give me some steals in the bargain.
Howie Kendrick is the fourth option. He’s another Mr. Consistent, and I forecast a rebound to career norms in 2017. His ADP is way down in the 300s, so he should be around for my 18/19 pair. Then again, I said the same thing about Joe Panik.
Ender Inciarte is still around. I first mentioned him four rounds ago as an option, and he does have a statistical profile that matches my team needs. He’s a great value in the 16th round. But can I really take a backup outfielder when I still have obvious needs in the starting lineup?
Jerad Eickhoff is the only SP left from the big group I looked at two rounds ago. I’ve done a good job projecting runs in this draft. I’m not complaining, as Eickhoff may have been my second favorite after Rodon. I though he had the best chance of dropping. But SP4 is nearly as much of a luxury as a backup outfielder would be.
As I mentioned before, I’m not thrilled with what’s left at 3B. Hernan Perez was almost as much of a nobody as Schimpf entering 2016, and now he’s playing in the WBC (albeit sparingly). He steals bases, which has been an ongoing area of need for me all draft, but I think I believe in him less than Schimpf. Yulieski Gurriel was not good in his first taste of baseball stateside, but struggling in his situation is very understandable. With an offseason to adjust, the guy the Astros paid nearly $50 million dollars for could emerge.
I think this has to be a roster need pick, which narrows it down to 2B and 3B. Schimpf and Gurriel are my two favorites from their position groups. Both have plenty of warts. On top of the performance risk, Schimpf isn’t set in stone as San Diego’s keystone man. And it’s not like the Astros don’t have other options if Gurriel continues to struggle at the plate. In the end, I took Gurriel because I just don’t trust in Schimpf’s approach.
17.04 Jerad Eickhoff, SP, PHI
Seattle Zen took Schimpf, but everyone else is left from my prior rationale. With three viable 2B on the board and the low ADP of Kendrick, I’m pretty comfortable that I can wait. That frees me up to take a luxury pick. SP4 or OF5, which will it be? The answer is Eickhoff. I think he has an appealing combo of floor and upside, especially for the 17th round. If he can push his strikeouts closer to 8 per 9 IP, he’ll be the quintessential innings eater that doesn’t hurt me.
|
|
| | | 199 | Fosten
ID: 4097314
Sat, Apr 01, 2017, 00:15
|
21.02 Michael Conforto, OF, NYM
aka. “I know a guy who works with his cousin.” And there goes Lorenzen! Probably should have went Moreland here, considering Pearce can play outfield in a few weeks. But ladies and gentlemen, the Amazin'© Michael Conforto is hitting the cover off the ball this spring. He was an 12th round RIBC pick last year, a 21st rounder now. Will Jay Bruce still be Amazin'© by May? I could envision a Bruce trade on a similar timeline to Davis/Duda, which was April 18th. I passed on Conforto in other drafts, because I already had enough outfielders. However, it is Amazin'© how much his upside valuation changes, when you draft him as a starter instead of an bench player. Similar to Margot, this is another Amazin'© late-round value pick for the Mobsters, an extra outfielder hanging around a tier after everyone else filled up on steak. With Lagares ailing, Conforto should make the team out of Spring, and be starting before Summer. Amazin'©! Lets go Mets!
22.15 Tyler Skaggs, SP, LAA
aka. “I own stock everywhere!” Tyler Skaggs is kinda like Jonathan Taylor Thomas, except without the Teen Beat posters. I don’t tend to carry a lot of SP in RIBC, because I think there’s more value to be found in streaming starts, so this is where I draw the line. Skaggs is the true ace in LA, and I was thrilled that his ADP was so low, so I could draft him everywhere. His elite ERA fits the other Mobster pitchers, his FIP has been even better, and I think there’s more strikeouts on the way. 2.5 years removed from TJ surgery, this former first round prospect is selling out local concerts, driving fangirls wild, and ready to breakout on the national scene. He’s releasing a new boyband CD this summer, he’s got all the right moves, and I'm pre-ordering the vinyl.
23.02 Jurickson Profar, 3B, TEX
aka. "Sparky the Plug”. This is my brother Jurickson, and this is my other brother Jurickson. Somewhat worried the shoulder injury zapped whatever power he had, but Bugs Bunny is all over the field and should find at-bats. A perennial Mobster, I didn’t get a chance to draft him on many teams this year, so I’m grabbing him in RIBC. He performed well in the WBC, so perhaps this is the year the breakout finally happens. Its ESPN robbery that he only gets 3B, and its an Wild West Texas Holdup that he hasn’t been traded already. His mama told him, he's gonna be so much more, someday. I think Pittsburgh makes a great landing spot. Most seasons, I let someone else draft him, wait until they drop him, and then I pick him up. Let’s just go ahead and speed up the process this year.
24.15 Mallex Smith, OF, TAM
aka. “More steals? So full! Can’t eat another bite!” Word is that Colby Rasmus will miss a 4-6 weeks and that puts Mallex in the opening day starting lineup. I love when Colby Rasmus has an impact on my team! blue hen seems to like Mallex, so maybe I can trade swing a trade. Wait, BH isn’t in this league? I was wondering why he was waiting until round 24 to pick! The bank of steals is open, might as well get as I can while he still has a job. Run like the wind Mallex! You don’t have much time!
25.02 Jayson Werth, OF, WAS
aka. “This pick was WERTH-LESS!” If Conforto is on the bench Opening Day, then I still need a 4th OF until Pearce and Profar qualify. The 25th round seems early for a 4th OF. Don’t you think? This is the question that I have been asking all of you this draft. Haven’t you already drafted my 4th outfielder? Isn’t he already on your team right now, just waiting for you to drop, and for me to pick up? Perhaps he’s a minor leaguer, just waiting to get the call? As a Mets fan, I can’t stand Jason Werth (nothing personal), so I figured this would be a player I could easily drop for a streaming slot (nothing personal). Perhaps we shall call the day that I release Jayson Werth, "Garden gnome” "Garden gnome" day! (As Werth chases with a bat, Fosten runs in terror). Thanks to everyone who read my posts, and to Guru for putting up with my lag. Best of luck to everyone in the new season. Cheers to rotoguru, the best folks in all the land! Peace.
|
|
|
|