I assumed that Trout and Altuve would be the first two off the board, so I was really deciding between 4 players: Trea Turner, Goldschmidt, Stanton, and Kershaw.

As reliably great as Kershaw has been, he turns 30 next week, he had his least dominant season in a long time, he has had his ground ball percentage drop 4 years in a row, and he is coming off consecutive seasons shortened by back injuries. Injuries tend to build on each other, especially for pitchers, and I couldn't convince myself he was a "sure thing" anymore.

Goldschmidt would have been my pick if not for that pesky humidor. That added too much uncertainty for me.

My formula was telling me that Stanton was the #2 overall option behind Trout, but I don't really trust the projections that led to that result. There is obviously the potential for a massive season, but he would have to vastly outperform his career averages to be worth anything approaching this spot. Last year seems like it could have been a career year for him. I get the appeal of the stadium improvement and team offense improvement (though the Yankees seem to have more power than lineup depth/OBP), but heading into last year, we all thought we finally had quit getting fooled by his potential. If Stanton has another injury-shortened season with an OPS in the .800s, I don't want to be the sucker who took him 4th overall. Had I known he'd be available as late as he was, I would have gladly taken that risk with a late-round pick.

Trea Turner's stats have been insane so far. Per 650 PA, he has hit .348/.491 with 106 R, 69 RBI, and 65 SB. Pretty decent line for a shortstop...

Of course, it's a small sample size: only 198 MLB games. He doesn't have any major red flags that suggest he's in line for significant regression, but there has to be some, right?

He missed 64 games last year: is he potentially injury-prone? He averaged 620 PA the previous two years so I'm not stressing out over it.

However, looking at the player pool, I think there will be a meaningful tier cutoff in the mid- to late-second round. At this point, I haven’t yet done much detailed player pool analysis, but at a glance, I think I see 27 players I would be happy enough with as my second pick. That would push me down to #6 if I trust that analysis.

Another option would be to take the later round hit and choose a late pick. I think that I could pair a nice hitter, maybe Judge, with one of the big 4 pitchers. That is the most appealing 1/2 combo I can think of with Trout off the table, but is it worth the later sacrifice? I do prefer drafting near the turn to being stuck in the middle.

I decided that the drop from Turner to the next tier wasn’t worth missing the cutoff in the second round. Though I wanted to, I couldn’t pull the trigger on the later turn. I really wish we would switch to Banzai so that the selection of draft slots wasn’t influenced by these generic pressures. I chose #7 instead of #6 to give myself a pick of wiggle room in case the group of 27 shrinks upon closer analysis.

Votto: The first 6 picks weren’t very surprising. Maybe Harper going 3rd, though I can understand the thought process.

I looked at four players in detail: Giancarlo Stanton, Mookie Betts, Charlie Blackmon, and Joey Votto. Stanton rebounded fantastically from a down year in 2016 and has found himself embedded in an almost ideal situation with the Yankees. The traditional concerns about durability and variance remain present, but he has legitimate Arenado-level RBI potential.

Betts was the consensus #3 pick last year (though he only went 5th in RIBC). In a down year for OPS, he still played 150+ games with 200+ R/RBI and 26 SBs, and his BABIP was unreasonably low. He’s as good a bet for 700 plate appearances as anyone.

Blackmon was truly elite last year, but there are some obvious spots for regression beyond the typical ones inherent in that level of production. On a more worrying note, he has had a poor SB success rate in each of the past two years. It is too easy to imagine his manager sticking him with a red light on the basepaths.

otto’s level of consistency has been absolutely remarkable. He’s essentially been a first round performer for every healthy season in his career, and his skills have only increased as he has aged. Though not shabby, his counting stats aren’t there to match up to the names above. Also, he generates a huge portion of his value from a ridiculously high OBP, which is the category I always find easiest to accrue throughout the draft.

I decided first that I did not want any pitcher at #12.

I always say that I like to get a top MI early in this league, but seem to always end up picking an OF. Worked all right last year with Bryce Harper, but this year I thot I would act according to my convictions. Charlie Blackmon, the top OF in the 3-person queue I prepared a few picks before I came up, was taken at 1.11 anyway.

Correa is 23, so might be on the upswing. His virtues are evident. I’d like him to get back to stealing double-digit bases.

However….

Boy, was I ever surprised to find Kluber and Sale both available here. In a similar type league I have been following, they were all gone in the first round; more typically they are gone by the third pick in round two. And I've found it difficult to win, and compete in Ks, without an early ace.

Back to the drawing board. Springer is another guy with abysmal SB success rates, so I think projection systems are being very optimistic to forecast him to rebound in that category. Plus, one of my draft philosophies is “Never settle for OF.”

I own Cody Bellinger in my home keeper league, and I see enough flaws in his game that I don’t want to own him twice. With that said, I’m trying to trade him, so it’s not out of the question. The 1B/OF dual eligibility is nice, even if it’s not the most interesting combination, and his 10 or so SBs are nothing to scoff at. The counting stats will be there, too.

Bregman, Dozier, and Seager are the MIs going here. Seager isn’t healthy enough for me to pick him this early. I chose Dozier last year at 3.04 and was satisfied with his performance for me, if not thrilled. I don’t really want to own him again, and I don’t see a compelling case forcing my hand. Bregman is a guy I specifically had no interest in last year, but he outperformed my expectations significantly. He’s still not all that impressive by Statcast metrics, but it may not be necessary given his 5-category profile.

Though the big 4 are gone, starting pitching could still be an option. Strasburg is a known quantity at this point, giving you elite performance on a lower IP count than the other top guys. Bumgarner has the best track record among remaining players, but wasn’t at the same level after his return from the dirt bike injury. Syndergaard is coming off an injury-marred year himself, and he’s never topped 185 IP, but his velocity is back with a vengeance.

Maybe everybody finally realized that Strasburg has had 6 quality seasons in a row, because he's much more expensive this year. Will I still be happy with him as a late 2nd rounder?

Age 31, and has been durable (avg 698 PA in last 3 seasons) and pretty consistent. Decent ratios, good counting stats. 100/90/.350/.500 seems doable.

On the hitter side, Yelich was still available and my highest value, but I already had 2 OFs. That basically nixed Upton and Benintendi as well, each of whom I think are solid picks. I'm gun shy of Rhys Hoskins, at least at this price. Abreu and Encarnacion offered older-man power.

On the pitching side, there was a big tier of similarly-valued guys - Carrasco, Darvish, DeGrom, Severino, Verlander, and Bumgarner. There were so many, in fact, that I figured I could pass on a pitcher and probably (probably) have one of them come back to me.

I usually only pick one starter in the first 9-10 rounds. But in a league where scoring is up, I've decided to go after 2 top-20 starting pitchers this year (and my best RIBC finish was 2013 when I went Cliff Lee-Yu Darvish in rounds 3 and 4 for an ace-duo extraordinaire).

I consider closers, particularly the elite ones, to be heavily undervalued every year.

Time to play everybody's favorite game:

Player A: 202 IP | 8.96 K/9 | 15 Wins | 3.35 | 1.18
Player B: 195.2 IP | 9.21 K/9 | 12 Wins | 3.40 | 1.16

Player A is the average of all the full seasons in the careers of (SP #8), Corey Kluber, (SP #11), and Yu Darvish.
Player B is the average of Kenley Jansen's (first) 5 years of closer combined with a fictional last-round SP who goes 130 IP of 4.00/1.33 with 7 K/9 and 9 Wins.

So the value of an elite closer is roughly that of SP #6-10, except you also get the massive added value of 30+ saves (Jansen's average [was] 36).

Last year Jansen was spectacular yet again. For 7 consecutive years, he has had an ERA below 2.85, a WHIP under 1.13, and a K/9 over 13. For 5 of those 7 years, his WHIP was under 0.87.

Yelich, on the other hand, has the uncertainty of switching to a team. I’m hoping that it will be a good change for him, particularly in the running department. The Brewers have been top two in SB attempts each of the last two years, and Yelich is slated to lead off. Even if he continues as a 15 SB guy, profit could still come from an increase in power due to either his new hitter-friendly ballpark or an increase in launch angle.

It wasn’t just recklessness that led me to keep the queue in place, however. For me this pick was in a dead zone in player values. Cruz was the only hitter I really wanted at that time, the only one that didn’t come with significant doubts attached. For the second pick in a row, I was quite prepared to pick a starting pitcher (Verlander 4.11) as the best available player, even though I don’t really want a second SP this early, if Cruz had been picked before me. I wasn’t comfortable with the various other hitters I considered.

As for the player himself, I haven’t owned Cruz in years because I have always thought, “For sure, THIS is the year he collapses.” But he hasn’t shown a sign of decline yet; his contact rate actually improved last year, and he was mashing the ball in spring training. I need his ratios and RBIs. I might very well have picked him anyway; a couple weeks on the DL won’t destroy his value.

But really what I should have done is started from scratch, re-reviewed my thinking from the beginning..., and put Aroldis Chapman at the top spot in my queue. (Looking at the picks before I bed. I somehow thought that Chapman had been picked right after me, but in fact bmd picked him right before me, so I feel better now, because it wouldn’t have mattered anyway.)

One moral of the story: even though this isn’t football, it is prudent to stop before you pick if you can and make sure that your player hasn’t just been injured.

ALSO CONSIDERED: Tommy Pham (4.06), Starling Marte (4.09), Justin Turner (4.12).

In his 2016 breakout year, Xander Bogaerts (115 R, 21 HR, 13 SB, 89 RBI) had a .294 avg and an .802 OPS.

In 2017, Bogaerts had a .308 avg and an .818 OPS before getting hit on the wrist by a pitch in June. He said "it was the first time I've ever dealt with pain like that"...

Nope! JDBoSox takes him and I’m left scrambling! Should I draft Jean Segura (whom I own elsewhere)? ehhhh

Speed: Pham had a fantastic breakout year in 2017. There is always significant risk attached to any late bloomer breakout, but his lengthy struggle with eye disease provides a viable explanation. I’m no ophthalmologist, but what I’ve read gives me hope that his surgery and new contacts can provide a stable health situation for him moving forward. I think he was my top target, but I (correctly) didn’t expect him to last until 4.10.

Elvis Andrus has been a rock solid 25 SB guy for years now, but he added some power to his profile in this juiced ball environment. His speed has remained steady, and there is reason to think that the offensive gains could be sustainable. Pollock has the power/speed combo as well, with a little more juice. I’m concerned about the impact of the humidor.

Power: Nelson Cruz is Mr. Reliable. The DH-only eligibility is a downer, but I’ve worked with it successfully in the past. Taken by Toral. Gallo’s elite power is undeniable as the closest thing in baseball to a three-true-outcomes player. Despite his extreme pull tendencies, there is some BABIP upside. I loved owning Khris Davis two years ago back when the price was a 14th rounder, and I think he’s legitimately earned his promotion to these heights. Expecting more of the same in 2018.

Justin Turner will return a profit at this slot. I love his offensive game, but after opening with Votto/Yelich the elite OBP would be wasted on my roster. Chances are that I would’ve taken him had I opened with Betts or Stanton. Buster Posey is another guy I’ve always liked and even took last year at 2.13. Like Turner, his OBP prowess means he’s not the best fit for my team, and I’m perfectly content with him being off the board.

Gallo seems like the more fun choice, with a sky-high upside. I also currently live in Texas and can watch him regularly. He's one of the most extreme "3 true outcomes" hitters ever: he could realistically strike out over 40% of the time, walk over 15% of the time, and hit homers almost 10% of the time. Last year, he had 9 more homers than singles. In the first half of the season, he struck out 39% of the time, had a .194 AVG, and still put up an .821 OPS.

To me, the most challenging constraint of the RIBC format is the extreme depth coupled with the small bench size. Nobody in the history of fantasy baseball has ever been better set up to address that constraint than Shohei Ohtani.

Position flexibility is always useful, but Ohtani's is on a completely different level because he is expected to pitch 150 innings and also start at DH multiple times per week. It's always so difficult to start a full lineup every day, especially during the middle of the season as injuries start to pile up: Ohtani functionally gives me half of an extra offensive bench slot. Those offensive numbers should be above average, too: Steamer is even projecting .339/.464 (though my projection blend has his OPS around .780).

His biggest offensive contribution, though, is the additional counting stats. Last year, I had a pretty flexible roster but still fell 77 games short of my limits (with many more games where I started players who weren't starting and hoped they'd pinch-hit). Over the course of the season, I expect to gain 10-20 runs, 10-20 rbi, and 2-5 SB from having Ohtani available to start when I otherwise wouldn't have had anybody to plug in. Add 15 R, 15 RBI, and 3 SB to any player and consider where they would be drafted with those new counting numbers.

Ohtani's pitching is expected to be his main draw, and (projected at 148 IP) he was my 4th-best remaining pure SP at this point. Everybody seems to believe his K rate will be over 10, which is something only 13 SPs accomplished last year. Steamer has it at 11.12, which would have been 5th place behind only Sale, Ray, Scherzer, and Kluber. His walk rate is expected to be more average, and I'm sure there will be plenty of adjustments, but I drafted him as SP #17, and I think there's a decent shot that Ohtani will finish ranked that highly from his pitching stats alone.

Ohtani is only 23 years old, and it's plausible that his ability levels have grown even higher in the past year. To me, there are two main risks:
-the projections are wildly inaccurate
-he starts off slowly on offense and is used more as a pinch-hitter than a DH

There are some good starters out there to pique my interest. Archer and Greinke are reliable 200 IP arms. Archer has regression upside and the humidor can only work in Greinke’s favor.

I like Willson Contreras a lot. I expect some mild regression, but he and Gary Sanchez are locked into the catcher top three at the young age of 25. Contreras can’t match his age mate, but anybody with an 800+ OPS and a handful of steals behind the plate gets my attention.

This is particularly the case as I’m not likely to win any competitions for the “breaking news” type of new closers. Perhaps some day we will move to the level-playing-field, more skill-testing and strategic system of next-day waivers for pickups.

Given his pedigree and that he will be hitting in the middle of Boston’s potent lineup, I am confident he will outperform the 6.08 draft selection. A 30/100/100 season with the potential for more is well within reach!

Raisel Iglesias pitches for a bad team, but that’s where the negatives end. He’s young, pedigreed, talented, and throws more IP than most closers. Wade Davis got a big contract to head into the mountains, and predecessors like Greg Holland have shown that Colorado is no death sentence for relievers. Cody Allen is very good too, and Andrew Miller has been in town long enough that their complementary roles are solidly established, but it’s hard to eliminate the nagging doubt that this could change in an instant. Sean Doolittle is a wonderful pitcher, but he’s been hurt too much for me to have him in a tier with the three above.

Sano's assault case scared me off, and I was looking to improve at OBP anyway. Jake Lamb would have probably been my choice, but that humidor gave me second thoughts. Santana would solve my OBP, but there were so many solid CI options that I felt I could wait.

Lots of directions I can go with this pick. 2B or 3B makes the most sense from a roster construction standpoint, but I could certainly get away with a third outfielder or even my CI.

Second base offers Jonathan Schoop and Chris Taylor. Each benefitted from some batted ball luck last year, so I would be buying at a bit of a premium. Schoop has power and is in a good spot to accrue a healthy amount of R/RBI, which are weaknesses of my current roster. His OBP is terrible for borderline top 100 pick, but that doesn’t worry me very much after my opening picks. Taylor followed in the footsteps of teammate Justin Turner last year and broke out with 5-category production. I gradually became more and more of a believer in him last year after having picked him up as a flier in a non-RIBC league. I still own him there, so I will have exposure regardless of what I do with this pick.

At corner, the leading 3B contenders are Adrian Beltre and Nick Castellanos. You can’t talk about Beltre without mentioning his age (almost 39), but I can’t find much in his profile to indicate age-related decline. The biggest red flag are the injuries that took away a decent chunk of his season, as it could be a sign that his body is starting to break down. Or maybe not! Much ink has been spilled about Castellanos in the past 365 days, but all I know for sure is that he hits the ball really hard and gets a lot of extra base hits.

Yoenis Cespedes is officially an injury-prone slugger. This is already multiple rounds lower than he has gone in any RIBC draft since his first year stateside (2012). The offensive skills have shown no sign of deterioration, but he’s hurt yet again as I pick. Like Chris Taylor, I have a share in my other league. Yasiel Puig is my other outfield option. Last year he was a true 5-category player, but it’s always hard to know what to expect out of the mercurial Puig.

It’s not an RIBC draft if I don’t consider drafting Matt Carpenter, and yet, I’ve only done it twice. Feels like so many more than that! Anyway, stellar OBP to expect out of the mercurial Puig.

It’s not an RIBC draft if I don’t consider drafting Matt Carpenter, and yet, I’ve only done it twice. Feels like so many more than that! Anyway, stellar OBP, healthy power, and solid counting stats. But he’ot an RIBC draft if I don’t consider drafting Matt Carpenter, and yet, I’ve only done it twice. Feels like so many more than that! Anyway, stellar OBP, healthy power, and solid counting stats. But he’s another guy dealing with a little something at t Carpenter, and yet, I’ve only done it twice. Feels like so many more than that! Anyway, stellar OBP, healthy power, and solid counting stats. But he’s another guy dealing with a little something at the moment, and a first baseman is low on the priors like so many more than that! Anyway, stellar OBP, healthy power, and solid counting stats. But he’s another guy dealing with a little something at the moment, and a first baseman is low on the priority list.

Hendricks is the starter I trust most of those near the top of my list. He is a soft tosser whose K/9 won’t overwhelm you, but playing on a good team with a strong infield defence allows him to make the moct of what he's got. His 2017 3.03 ERA was made up of 4.09 before going on the DL with tendinitis, and 2.19 afterwards, with his velocity back up to where it was in 2016, when he posted a 2.13/0.98 log. He has struck out 14 over his last 10 innings in ST. Only his health is a worry.

Zimmer has sometimes been described as a 5-tool player. In his rookie season it sometimes looked like these tools were bought at Walmart, if not the dollar store. But he steals bases – 18 in essentially half a season,with only 1 CS, making this a key part of his game. He doesn’t hit for great average, but walks save his OBP, and he has gap power.

As it is, I still like Beltre. We are at the end of a 3B tier, and I like Beltre to outperform his computerized projections. If I go in another direction, I can take the much younger, but massively less proven, Greg Bird. He’s been oft injured and isn’t having a great spring, but the upside if he puts it all together is substantial.

Among pitchers, I’m interested in the pair of Luis Castillo and Masahiro Tanaka. Castillo had such a fantastic debut, pairing a lot of strikeouts with an elite ground ball rate. Tanaka had a down year due to a bout of gopheritis, but only Corey Kluber and Max Scherzer managed to induce more swinging strikes. Tanaka legitimately gets hit harder than most other top pitchers, so it’s not like a rebound is fully guaranteed, but there are multiple elite skills elsewhere in his profile.

At this point, all closers are kind of sketchy, but I needed a 2nd one. Brach and Holland were both intriguing, but I thought it was too early to take them. I looked at pretty much every closing option remaining, and it came down to Melancon and Treinen. I think both have the potential to finish as a top-10 RP. Melancon has been elite in the past, but the injury to his pitching arm just looks really rough. He's still sore after he throws, he's pitching badly in Spring Training, and he might not even necessarily have the role locked up right now.

Treinen has two ridiculously nasty pitches. So far, the results haven't lived up to them. He hasn't been bad: his xFIP has been between 3.31 and 3.62 throughout his 4 seasons. They just haven't been great for a reliever, especially one with seemingly elite stuff.

Margot could turn out to be a premium version of Deshields. Or he could turn out to be a guy who should go shortly after him, which he did.

I did also check out the closer pool. My dad mentioned rumors about Greg Holland, but I couldn’t even find as much as a tweet from a semi-respectable source. I respect RocketRichard’s rationale for his pick at 10.12, but I decided it wasn’t the approach for me. Brad Brach was the alternative, and he’s good enough that he has a chance to hold the job even if Britton returns to nearly full form. If I didn’t have strong offensive options, I would’ve been comfortable taking him.

It seems pretty straightforward with Cueto: for 6 years, he was an ace. Last year he was a really bad pitcher, and despite a BABIP 40 points higher than his career average, it didn't seem like bad luck was the primary factor. However, it doesn't seem to be primarily age-based regression either. Like many pitchers last year, Cueto dealt with blisters, which put him on the DL and (more importantly) seem correlated with his sudden loss of control.

Kinsler is also coming off a "down year", and he's getting quite old. However, I have confidence that he will bounce back, because most of his peripheral stats actually improved last year: he just had a terrible .244 BABIP.

Moustakas would give me more power and counting stats at a hit to OBP, which I can absorb. I expected him to go earlier, but he’s now fallen far enough to where he is a solid pick. Herrera is the last closer with a guaranteed opening day job with a past history of strong skills, but his 2017 was a clear step down. His spring training performance is doing nothing to assuage my fears. Eddie Rosario finally stopped swinging at absolutely everything, and it led to a bit of a breakout last year. There is regression risk, but his profile fits my team’s needs very well. At the time of the pick, he was dealing with arm soreness preventing him from playing the field. Andrew Miller is possibly the best reliever in baseball. Minimal expected saves, but the strikeout and ratio value he provides is certainly worthy of a pick here. Miller had a DL stint last year that impacted him for a time, but he finished the season healthy.

.521 SLG & 85 rbi last season. Very good contact for a power hitter which is a plus.

I looked through the pool at various positional groups. At MI, Semien and Jorge Polanco carried some appeal, but I decided to wait. I wasn’t thrilled with the pitching options, and no first basemen stood out. Evan Gattis drew my attention as a late opportunity to gain a PA advantage at catcher. I’m not the best manager at maximizing playing time, so any chance I have to moderate this weakness is welcomed.

Thames was drafted before I had to make what would have been a really tough choice. He had an .877 OPS last year (.877!!) and yet the Brewers say there is no place for him to start. How do you have the best OPS on your team and not earn a starting role the next year? That's insane to me.

Brantley has intriguing upside, but he has also played in 101 total games the last 2 seasons and is currently questionable for opening day. During his last healthy year, his OPS was .689. It's probably not a risk I should be taking on my first OF of the draft.

5 hours later, it was announced that he had tested positive weeks ago for a banned substance, and had finally decided to accept the 80 game suspension. He's been playing all spring training knowing he faced an 80 game suspension, and waited one day too long to take his lumps.

Frankly, though, I'd rather a guy get suspended for 80 games than do what Adrian Gonzalez did to me last year, - which is to suck so bad that having them on my team was worse than having them get suspended or injured.

24, could improve, posted solid slugging average, looks like he will bat 5th and I can use some SLG and RBIs.

2016 was an injury-plagued mess for Choo, but I believed in a bounceback and took him in the 12th round last year. I was rewarded with a line of .357/.423 with 96 R, 78 RBI, and 12 SB. After such a solid season, you would think his price would drift back up, but he fell even farther this year!

.762?

While CarGo was awful for the first 4 months, he really put it together during August and September. CarGo's explanation was that he hadn't been getting any sleep, and that he made a point to change that. That seems somewhat sketchy to me, but he had a .921 OPS after the All-Star Break, so something seems to have happened.

Was his great 59 game period a small sample size? Yeah, but so was his awful 77 game period. Gonzalez had always been viewed as a top-tier talent, and this is the first time he has been drafted outside the first 4 rounds since his first full season in 2010.

I don't see how CarGo could have realistically lost 11 rounds worth of ability. His K rate was exactly in line with his average, and he had the highest walk rate of his career. His ISO and hard-hit% dropped off a cliff, but is power really the trait that is most likely to drive his decline?

On April 19th, Gonzalez was taken for X-Rays and missed a game after being hit on the hand by a Clayton Kershaw pitch. He missed 9 games with a shoulder injury in June. Those seem like the kind of things that could result in a dramatic temporary loss of power. During the 63 games from April 19th until July 16th, CarGo had an ISO of .112. During the 59 games after July 18th, his ISO was .226. His hard-hit% rebounded similarly: from under 25% to over 40%.

Fortunately, Gonzalez is back with Colorado, playing half of his games at Coors Field. Even last year, the only situation Gonzalez was truly unusable was on the road against lefties (.284 OPS) (Yes, OPS, not OBP or SLG). Though it had never been this dramatic before, his massive L/R and Home/Road splits were something we already knew about, and they can be very advantageous with sufficient roster depth.

Some undrafted that didn't stand out enough. Really thought I was going to be leaning toward 2 of the still undrafted OF, but Wong and Boxberger really started to stand out as I was narrowing my list down to top 2 before bed. Giolito would've been strongly considered. Odubel Herrera was on the radar for a few rounds but my management of him last season bumped him too close to blacklist territory to make the leap again.

Betances was wild, though, and lost his manager's trust by the end of the season. His walk rate jumped way up to an absurd 6.64 (he also hit a batter every 5.1 IP!!), but I can't imagine it will remain that way. He rebuilt his delivery over the offseason, and during Spring Training, he has 11 Ks and only 1 BB through 5.1 IP (with no hit batters).

High swinging strike rate, low walks (resulting in sub 1.00 WHIP last year), and more than a K per IP. Last year he work 80 IP in 62 appearances, so there were a good number of multi-inning stints. Usage (and results) may be similar to Andrew Miller.

So I was all set to take Molina here as the best catcher available. But then I lined up his projected stats vs the next 5 options at catcher, and decided there wasn’t a compelling reason to take a 35-year old catcher, who – in spite of a long track record of durability and ADP advantage – doesn’t really offer anything distinctive in a OBP league, where his walk rate is low enough to neutralize his higher-than average BA.

After an extended look at all sorts of alternatives, I decided to go with Hamels as my SP5. He’s been durable for so many years that his arm is probably older that the rest of his body, and he did only manage 148 IP last year, his lowest total since his rookie season. No longer a strikeout pitcher, can he reinvent himself? Certainly a risk, although as my SP5, I’ll take the chance. If Texas fares poorly, maybe he’ll be dealt to a contending NL team in July. And if Texas doesn’t falter, then maybe he’ll be part of the reason!depth – I think there will be less demand there. Of course, there are always several managers who resist drafting a catcher until very late, so just because there are still a lot of holes to fill, they won’t necessarily be in high demand quite yet.

So I was all set to take Molina here as the best catcher available. But then I lined up his projected stats vs the next 5 options at catcher, and decided there wasn’t a compelling reason to take a 35-year old catcher, who – in spite of a long track record of durability and ADP advantage – doesn’t really offer anything distinctive in a OBP league, where his walk rate is low enough to neutralize his higher-than average BA.

Punting altogether was and still is under consideration. If I'm still rostering the equivalent of less than one closer after 2-3 weeks then I could shift lanes. Still a few candidates out there to get my odds up. About to hit a fork in the road next go round. Still really need pitching depth but still needing to fill a surprise hole at CI and/or add to the patchwork OF.

I like the Hader pick right after I chose Boxberger last time around. Missing McMahon might be nothing or might haunt me all year. Kepler was on the radar right behind Reddick and Calhoun. Soler was close to the radar. Minter was looking mighty tempting. Had been eyeing Solarte for a few rounds. Candelario was starting to climb my queue fast. Cron was entering radar. This was a real painful stretch to me. Really figured I set my queue to land a CI or OF but that queue was pillaged hard.

The current closer for the Twins is Fernando Rodney, who is 41 years old and a bad pitcher. ...well, everybody seems to think he is a bad pitcher except for a few MLB managers, who have allowed him to close each of the past 3 seasons despite a 4.52 BB/9, 4.12 ERA, and 1.33 WHIP.

One reason I deferred so long is that I was thinking that Marwin Gonzalez could slide over to 3B if needed. But upon further review, I realized he was elig at 1B/2B/SS/OF, but not 3B. Oops.

I wanted to take Carl Edwards Jr. or one of several interesting OF options, and maybe I should have. One of my main goals for this draft has been to set myself up to get as close to 162 starts per batting slot as possible: doing so requires that I draft a 2nd viable SS. Asdrubal Cabrera is such a dull and uninspiring pick: by far the most exciting thing about him is his triple eligibility. It was extra disheartening to take him and then watch Carl Edwards Jr. and all 6 of my OF considerations get drafted before my next pick.

Cabrera has 7 consecutive seasons of 540+ PA, during which he has averaged .325/.430 with 71 R, 66 RBI, and 8 SB. The counting stats have declined slightly, but the rate stats line up almost perfectly with his projections.

Some more comments from the same sources, “penciling in even 100 innings isn’t safe’, “he is about as high risk of an arm as there is in baseball”.

Kirby Yates had been somebody I had been targeting for a while, and I figured I might as well take him now. Yates seemed to turn a corner last year, with a 13.98 K/9 and a 3.02 BB/9. His rates had always been good, but more in the 12 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 range, which is what he is generally being projected to regress to this year.

The only remaining player that I specifically didn't want to miss out on was Ben Zobrist, and there are enough playing time questions that he was being drafted very late and I expected him to be available.

Spent an undue amount of time deliberating whether to put Fisher or Nicky Delmonico first in my queue. Eventually decided Fisher, but the issue was moot after Delmonico was taken at 21.08. So much of my ratiocination proves unnecessary.

The OFs in my queue were Nicky Delmonico, Matt Kemp, and Gerardo Parra. Kemp and Delmonico got drafted. I was a little nervous that only Parra remained, but Zobrist was my primary interest, and the 3 teams drafting before my next pick were already in decent shape at OF.

Zobrist's dual eligibility gives me an extra level of backup at most positions when used in combination with Joey Gallo (3B/1B) and Asdrubal Cabrera (2B/SS/3B).

Besides the eligibility, this is also a bit of a sentimental pick: like Shin-Soo Choo, it feels like I've targeted Zobrist every year. This year, he looks to be in rough shape, with major questions about both his playing time and ability level. Though Zobrist is getting old, I'm attributing much of last year's difficulty to his wrist injury. The Cubs have a lot of OF/MI who could be mediocre or get hurt, so if Zobrist plays well again, I expect a path to 120+ starts. After all, he is just 1 year removed from being named the World Series MVP and racking up 94 runs and an .832 OPS.

If Zobrist bounces back at all, the Cubs lineup is stacked, and the R/RBI should be there. He's a lock to have a walk rate over 10%, and his .251 BABIP is in line for positive regression.

Anthony Swarzak had been on the top of my RP queue for quite a while, but before this pick I decided to review my options. What about Ramos? Swarzak is the better pitcher, but Ramos is a “proven closer” and might be next up for saves.

I notice a trend this year to pick, and pick higher, more relievers who aren’t closers, nor even necessarily next in line for saves, but who will put up lots of innings with a good K/9 (see Swarzak, Anthony mentioned above). Makes sense to me, with fewer starters putting in even 200 IP.