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Subject: RIBC 2020: Draft Rationale Collection thread


  Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Tue, Mar 10, 2020, 23:38

RIBC managers: Please post your rationales in this thread. Rationales are due on a two round lag (i.e., when you make you 3rd round pick, your 1st round rationale is due). You can post any rationale sooner than that if you wish.

Do not worry about placeholders or keeping things in the proper sequence. This is just a place to collect rationales, which I will then transfer over to the formal rationale thread in the proper sequence. This approach has worked well for the past several seasons, and I now have a somewhat automated method for making those transfers.

Remember that you should refrain from mentioning undrafted players. If you feel that your rationale requires that, then hold it back until the player has been drafted - unless the player mentioned is clearly undraftable this year.

When posting your first rationale, please also comment on your choice of draft sequence.
 
1Graydog
      ID: 5125249
      Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 11:13
1.02 Ronald Acuna Jr, OF, ATL

I had 2nd choice in draft slot selection. Debated 4th and 5th but went with two as I have Trout and Acuna ahead of the other top picks. This did of course lead to a 2nd round where my targets all fell in the few picks before my turn came around...

I had him above the other top selections because of steals, their scarcity pushed him ahead. Simple as that.

 
2RJ
      ID: 16158169
      Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 11:40
1st pick— I like the freedom of taking whoever I wanted and prefer to have the back to back picks moving forward in the draft so I won’t have to sweat out who gets taken ahead of me.

1.01 Mike Trout, OF, LAA
This is the first year in a long time that he hasn’t been the consensus #1 but obviously his body of work speaks for itself. Trout is a 3 time MVP who will help out big time in 4 of the 5 categories. His stolens have been on the decline the past few seasons but something in the neighborhood of 15-20 would be solid. I only have some mild concerns about games missed but the guys only 29 and was the best player of the 2010s. The only other player I considered here was Acuna Jr. but ultimately went with Trout’s track record.
 
3RJ
      ID: 16158169
      Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 11:45
2.16 Gleyber Torres, 2B/SS, NYY
I see Torres as a premium middle infielder with the flexibility to fill in at 2B or SS. The kid if only 23 and already a two time all star. 38 homers last year seems sustainable this year with good ratios and a handful of stolens and of course... room to grow! Plus he’s in a great hitting lineup. Sign me up.
 
4Matt G
      ID: 45031313
      Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 11:56
I had 4th selection for draft slot, so I chose pick #4. My general theory in picking draft slot is Top 5 or go for back to back picks. I also like the ability to pair a couple picks together in relatively the same tiers.

1.04 Juan Soto, OF, Was Wasn't a no-brainer here, I was sorta hoping one of the top 3 would fall to me but I didn't get lucky. Soto isn't a consolation prize by any means. He easily fills 4 categories nicely and if he gets double digit steals that a plus, but I can always accomodate that category later. I have a theory about the counting stats that I used last year and it worked. There was no thought about this, he was in my top 4 and is who was left at the time.

2.13 Xander Bogaerts SS Bos Another 4 category stud that might help in steals if i get lucky, same theory as before kid just rakes and is in his prime, I think he improves over last year. I was hoping Devers would fall but I'm not surprised he didn't, there wasn't anyone else I really considered here, maybe Muncy but I was licking my chops for Xander.
 
5I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 384502818
      Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 12:39
Pick Selection:
5th Slot. With the 7th selection, I was pretty confident that I would likely be getting a pick somewhere in the 5th-7th range. In a non-3RR league, I’m most likely going to go with the earliest pick available. Last year, that seemed to prove like a decent strategy, as Slizz who took Trout 1st overall, also finished 1st in the top league. Alternatively, I briefly considered going SP/SP by trying to grab two of the top 4 pitchers, which would likely require an end of round pick. Ultimately, I stuck with what I felt was more standard / less risky.

1.05 (5) Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, LAD
I was 90% resigned to the fact that I would be picking Gerrit Cole here. I would have been happy grabbing him a few ADP slots early to stabilize my pitching staff. However, the ADP-reach / move up for Juan Soto (kemics) allowed me to pivot my strategy. The big appeal for me to take Bellinger over Cole was I felt that he was a potential 5-CAT hitter, who could really separate himself from the pack by also being 1B-eligible. There aren’t many 1B who can provide SB’s as well, and adding Betts to that already loaded Dodgers lineup could provide even better counting stats. I like him significantly more than Freeman or Alonso, who should be going before my next pick most likely anyway. Thoughts on the first round: I was actually moderately surprised to see this league sticking with the historical bias, and staying away from SP early, allowing Cole to slide to the 12th pick. With how volatile the top tier SPs have been, I mentally was prepared to see potentially two SPs to go off in the first half of the 1st round.
 
6mmikulka
      ID: 3225119
      Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 17:16
Pick Selection: 7th overall
I had the 9th choice and I hadn't looked into baseball at all yet, so I went with the earliest option available (7th). In retrospect, I would have preferred a slot in the 10-14 range because I liked a lot of the options available there.

1.07 Mookie Betts, OF, LAD
I considered Cole, but I don't trust him with the Yankees: he has only been elite for the past 2 years with Houston and I expect him to regress to a 2nd tier starter, albeit with a high win total. I was expecting to take Juan Soto here, but he got drafted ahead of me. I considered Trea Turner for the SB, but went with Betts, who I hadn't expected to reach me.

His big-steal-number years are probably gone, and he will probably lose some stats going from a hitters park in the AL East to a pitchers park in the NL West, but the Dodgers' lineup is stacked and Betts is a 5-category player with a very high floor.
 
7Uptown Bombers
      ID: 28219112
      Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 18:04
Draft slot selection: Not a whole lot of thought goes into this when you have the 12 choice. When my turn came, I opted for the highest draft slot. Only other thought I had was to pick 14, as I figured I would still get good 1st round value and improve my position for round 2. In the end, I prefer picking closer to the middle and since we have an odd number of rounds, I get to improve my draft position one extra time by choosing 10th over 14th.

1.10 Alex Bregman, SS/3B, HOU
HBP counts toward OBP, right? Jokes aside, there were a few ways to go with this pick. The batters I considered were Bregman and Arenado. Both are great in this format but I choose Bregman because he is SS eligible and my concern about Arenado leaving Coors at some point this season outweighed my concern on the sign stealing fallout. The other direction available was SP. I’ve never drafted a SP this early but it was tempting. An entire draft plan based on that move played out before my eyes. In the end, I followed my more familiar strategy (you could say I chickened out) and took what I thought was the best hitter available.
 
8loki
      SuperDude
      ID: 4211201420
      Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 18:09
Draft pick-Draft spots 12 and 13 were available, and I picked the lower one. I did not want my first choice to be drafted out from under me. Slizz picked DeGrom with 1.13, and I think that he would have picked Cole if he had had the chance.

1.12 Gerrit Cole, SP, NYY-I like picking pitching early once the top hitters are gone. In RIBC 2019 I went to the unorthodox strategy of picking SP-SP with my 1st 2 picks. This went south because my SP2 was Corey Kluber, but I was able to make it back to RIBC 2020, although contending for the top spot was never a possibility. I was pleasantly surprised that Cole was still available at 1.12. I think that he is just a little better than DeGrom, and Verlander is older and currently injured with the severity of the injury yet to be determined.
 
9maspero
      ID: 38258615
      Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 18:46
Pick selection:
Slot no.9. I have always theoretically preferred a middle of the pack slot, to better control the runs on particular roles and to avoid reaching for players you like and you know will not be there in 30 picks. Add to that my time zone (+1 GMT, being from Rome, Italy – no, I am not still under the much feared CoronaVirus), and the risk (a certainty I should say) to have sooner or later 2 picks going with autopick (so hard to set in the right way …) and a middle slot looks ideal. But then 2 years in 3 I had the chance to choose no.1 and I threw logic away to pick Mike Trout …. This year the n.10 selection let me go with the logic. So I chose the highest slot I could, that turned out to be no.9. Maybe a later slot would have been preferable, because I liked the second round choices more. But again I liked what I found at no.9, so ….
1.09 Trevor Story, SS, COL
Having already gone the usual suspects, I had the chance to pick best pitcher (Cole), the best 1B (Freeman) or a 5-cat SS. Ok, the SS position is not the barren landscape it used to be, while the good 1Bs are getting thinner than my hair, but over the year is much easier to find help at 1B than at SS or MI (or to stream some decent SP). Or so I hope.
2.08 Shane Bieber, P, CLE
The above mentioned doubt stayed strong with my second pick, having gone in the meantime the three best pitchers (in my opinion, given the injured players) and the best 1B. I considered Pete Alonso, fearing a kind of sophomore slump or Rizzo, with the great OBP and the less than great SLG. I seriously considered Verlander, but given the uncertainty I decided for a maybe boring, unspectacular (looking at the ADPs) but solid P like Bieber. If he could repeat the Ks, Whip and Ws in 200 plus innings I would fire a candle in a church (as we say in Italy).
 
10mailedfoot
      ID: 597203018
      Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 19:46
1.06 Francisco Lindor, SS , CLE
I had the choice of pick 6 or something lower. I mulled different scenarios and finally decided not to overthink it and just went with 6. When it came to the actual selection, the five stand out hitters had been taken and I had to decide between deGrom or a hitter. I had picked deGrom in the first round last year and finally decided to do something different, going with Lindor who seemingly has a high floor and will contribute in all five categories.
 
12holt
      ID: 5231118
      Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 20:50
I could have had a pretty high draft pick but drafting on the turn is so much more convenient for me. I end up with lower quality players and risk missing a run but it reduces the chance that I'll slow the draft down and making two picks at once saves me research time.



1.16 Arenado, Nolan 3B COL

Figured I'd start with one pitcher and one hitter. There's a good chance he leaves Colo. this season but still, thought he was the best hitter available. Looking at other drafts this season, rarely is he available at pick 16.


2.01 Scherzer, Max SP WAS

Buehler was the other option. I like Flaherty a lot too. Scherzer has a very strong track record. Every resource I look at tells me to draft him over the others. Drafting lower mileage SP's is just as risky as drafting the old guys.
 
13KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 23:33
Draft slot: I had third choice, and took the 3rd slot, guaranteeing me one of Trout/Yelich/Bellinger, who I had as the top 3 in this format.

1.03 Christian Yelich, OF, MIL
In 2019 - an 1.100 OPS (higher than Trout) + 30 stolen bases in 130 games, which was a stolen base every 19 plate appearances (barely a hair off Acuna's rate). If the stolen bases stick around, and he plays 145 games, the top choice in this format.
 
14Uptown Bombers
      ID: 28219112
      Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 08:49
2.07 Rafael Devers, 3B, BOS

Devers was dynamite last year. I like that he is a young ascending player hitting in a prime spot for a still potent line-up. Projections expect a step backward from last year’s numbers but I think Devers can repeat his counting stats and even offers some power upside. Considered a SP here but Buehler was already gone and no one else jumped out at me. It was also tough to pass on the Polar Bear but Devers was ahead of him on my rankings and I decided to follow that rather than pick based on my fandom.
 
15loki
      SuperDude
      ID: 4211201420
      Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 10:41
2.05 J.D. Martinez, OF, BOS-This was an easy pick. He will help in every hitting category except SB’s.
 
16Slizz
      ID: 53336714
      Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 14:02
Draft Position - No thought process. Last one to pick.

1.13 - Jacob deGrom, SP, NYM - Pre-draft, I usually try to script the first 6 picks as ADP tends to be accurate. My plan was to go Bryce Harper (ADP of 21 - thanks for screwing me over BMD!) and go with Snell rd 2. Given additional injuries to the top SP (Verlander & Snell), I had to alter my board to look at Scherzer / Buehler / Flaherty. After Flaherty the pitchers start to have more and more warts. Given the injury factor, deGrom / Cole are going top 6 in expert drafts, so I felt the value was too good to pass up. Furthermore, there were 5 hitters I would have been okay landing in round 2:

Rendon
Tatis
Freeman
Arenado
Ramirez

My thinking was that with 6 picks between my next selection that only 1 team needed to take a SP and I'd get one of the aforementioned hitters to pair with deGoat. Yeah, I thought about adding Devers to that list, but didn't want to take him as my top bat. Stupid me miscalculated that I needed 2 teams to take a pitcher to get one of the aforementioned 5. Oops!!! Doing it over, I would've went with my boy Rendon as I was targeting Machado round 3...so I didn't want to load up on Padres.

Loki can’t say I would’ve went Cole over deGrom or not...but either way better to err on the side of caution and get the player you wanted. Cole and deGrom are consensus top 6 amongst Tout Wars.
 
17Slizz
      ID: 53336714
      Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 14:03
2.04 - Walker Buehler, SP, LAD - SP / SP...pocket aces! Not something I planned on doing, but I gotta roll with what the board is providing me. I got the ADP #6 in deGrom and ADP #16 in Buehler. SP is not going to be a pressing need for me as I have approximately 375 IP of cy young quality IP with elite ratios (doubtful I start @col). I don't need to do much "sales" for this pick. Every sharp in this league knows Buehler is awesome. Only 5 pitchers were in the top 10 in K-BB% in both halfs of the season:

Cole
deGrom
Verlander
Buehler
Bieber
 
18KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 15:38
2.14 George Springer, OF, HOU
When I plotted out who might be available in round 2 at this draft slot, I figured 3-4 stud pitchers and hitters would have been picked by now that ended up falling, which would have left me with a juicy non-OF RBI bat like Alonso, Bogarts, Devers, or Rizzo (most likely), or depending on how the room was playing, Shane Bieber.

But the stud pitchers fell, and the big bats I wanted + Bieber all went before it got back to me. Springer is no slouch, but 2018 (.340/.434 )wasn't that long ago, and having gone with Yelich in round 1, I wasn't thrilled to add another OF in round 2. This was really a place where I felt like I was drafting Round 3 value in Round 2. Considered Ketel Marte and Charlie Blackmon as well.

 
19KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 15:47
3.03 Patrick Corbin, SP, WAS
With coronavirus looking increasingly likely to delay the start of the MLB season, I strongly considered drafting Verlander here. If everybody misses April, injured or not, then the discount on Verlander could make him a real bargain. But with arms and elbows being so delicate, I try not to draft already-injured pitchers this high in the draft, especially not older already-injured pitchers.

Still had Ketel Marte on my mind (ruling Blackmon out because I didn't want to start OF-OF-OF), as well as Albies and Yordan Alvarez (same considerations as Verlander except for age). But having sore knees after a whole off-season of rest scared me off Alvarez.

Anticipating a mini-run on pitchers before I got to choose again in 26 picks (only 6 went, instead of the 9-10 I figured, so I should've gone with a hitter), I picked Corbin out of a tier of high strike out NL pitchers on good teams. If he dials his walks back to near 2018 levels, he's elite.
 
20Graydog
      ID: 22461020
      Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 16:07
2.15, Max Muncy, 2B, LAD

He kept crawling up lists as I examined his numbers closer. I like the positional flexibility (3rd, 1st) and batting lineup around him. He seemed to finally convince his manager he could hit lefties last year. I always like targeting OBP early and he should be a significant positive there.

Considered: Bryant, Ketel, Blackmon and Albies.


3.02, Kris Bryant, 3B, CHC

I wanted a high floor/low risk bat here. Career OBP 385, SLG 516. Has only missed time to injury in one season. Should bat first or second again this year which should provide at least 180 on the counting stats.

Considered: Ketel, Blackmon, Albies
 
21I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 384502818
      Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 19:14
2.12 (28) Stephen Strasburg, SP, WAS
I was hoping for Bieber or maybe Flaherty here, but the 200+ IP and 250Ks from last year certainly are good enough to anchor my pitching staff. Injuries (as with almost all pitchers), is a potential worry, but he’s healthy so far this spring, which is a great starting point. Projections seem to have baked in a little bit of regression, but nothing that has me overly worried. Thoughts on the second round: Beyond Verlander (who I drafted in the 2nd last year, and early 3rd two years ago?) sliding out of the 2nd round due to injury, not a lot seems overly surprising.

3.05 (37) Starling Marte, OF, ARI
It’s a long way till my next pick, and I can see a lot of SB specialists about to go off the board. I don’t necessarily want a “specialist”, I want a player who won’t hurt me in many CATs. For Marte, I feel like a lot of people are betting on the new park, and the improved lineup to add to his #s from last year, in which was already a career year. This just felt like a safe add at this point (in comparison to a Mondesi or Villar). Thoughts on the third round: From this pick (37) till the 57th pick only 1 SP (Snell) was drafted!? Goes to show how volatile the 2nd/3rd Tier SPs are.
 
22Uptown Bombers
      ID: 28219112
      Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 20:18
3.10 Ozzie Albies, 2B, ATL

Another young, all around contributor. I would love for Albies to get closer to 20+ steals but I’ll take 15. I almost always like to lock up MI in these drafts and this year is no exception. MI looks deep this year but that hasn’t slowed down our drafting of them. 3 of the 4 picks before me and the 2 picks immediately after (as of the time of this writing) all drafted MI. That’s 6 of the last 7 picks. Only other consideration here was Bichette, who went next.
 
23mmikulka
      ID: 3225119
      Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 20:53
2.10 Jose Altuve, 2B, HOU

I debated between Altuve and Rizzo. Rizzo has been very consistent, and Altuve feels like he brings risk this season, being at the center of the Astros' cheating scandal if you believe Carlos Beltran's fake niece. I don't think Altuve's stats were significantly inflated by the cheating, but it's certainly possible that he will press too hard and have a down year.

Altuve's SB numbers dropped off a cliff the past few years, going from 32 to 17 to 6, but he has added power. His SB projections are all in the low teens, which I'd be elated with if he comes anywhere close to repeating last year's .903 OPS.

Normally I'd make the safer choice this early in the draft, but 2B looks like an absolute wasteland and I think it's reasonably likely that Altuve and his offensive teammates will be extra focused and motivated this year.

3.07 Raul Adalberto Mondesi Jr, SS, KC

My early round strategy the past few years has been to target the scarcest categories: steals and saves (wins are just as scarce, but they are distributed among a much larger group of players and the category is subject to a lot of luck). Anybody familiar with my recent draft rationales would be unsurprised that I debated taking Josh Hader here.

That said, there were a pair of other closers that I liked almost as much as Hader, and there is only one Raul Mondesi. Ok, wait... I guess there are two of them...

but Steamer only projects one MLB player to break 40 SB, and it's Mondesi Jr. with 46. Only 2 other players are projected for more than 31 SB: one of them was drafted in the top 10 picks, and the other is projected to have a sub-.680 OPS and terrible counting stats.

I had Mondesi in my other league last year, and he was a fun player to follow. Even if Mondesi's power doesn't return/develop, he should be able to tread water in the other stats. His OBP will probably be garbage, but I consistently overdraft OBP anyway. If he has good batted ball luck and he has a >.200 ISO like in 2018, I can see him being a top 5 pick next year.
 
24mailedfoot
      ID: 597203018
      Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 20:56
2.11 Anthony Rizzo, 1B, CHC
One of the weaker aspects (relatively speaking) of Lindor's profile is OBP, so I wanted someone here who would provide a boost in that category. Enter Rizzo who projects for about a .385 OBP with plenty of counting stats, decent power, a handful of SB, and fills a position that tends to thin out rapidly in my opinion. Also considered Strasburg here and he was the very next pick.

3.06 Ketel Marte, 2B/OF, ARI
I also considered Marte for my last pick but thought he might possibly slide back me and after a little sweating, luck was with me. Marte posted a massive breakout last year fueled by significant increases in his power metrics. Some regression may be in order but I'm betting he comes close to last year (.389/.592). Kick in 10 SB and eligibility at two positions and I'm sold.
 
25beastiemiked
      ID: 35282121
      Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 22:19
#11 pick selection: highest available so went with it.

1.11 Bryce Harper
As it got close to me was think perhaps Bregman would slip to me. He went one pick earlier and I was happy, not sure I could root for him. Was between Cole and Harper here. Ultimately picked Harper due to upside. He could definitely be a top 3 player. Offers 5 categories of production. He gives me a good solid base in every category

2.06 Jack Flaherty
Hmm, maybe I should’ve went with Cole in round 1. Kinda kicked myself for not picking a lower pick in the pick selection round. Flaherty has arguably the best 2nd half out of all the pitchers last year. I wanted to get a SP here since I feel the drop off after the 1st tier is steep. If Flaherty wasn’t available, I probably would’ve went with Xander or Alonso.
 
26loki
      SuperDude
      ID: 4211201420
      Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 22:20

3.12 Whit Merrifield, 2B, KC-I wanted to have a player at 2B who would actually help rather than drag down averages. He should do that and add some SBs. His SBs have been trending downward over the past seasons, but if he can steal 22+ this year, it will be fine.
 
27Matt G
      ID: 45031313
      Fri, Mar 13, 2020, 09:22
3.04 Luis Castillo SP CIN When I have two picks close together like this I like to try to steal some value with the second pick, get someone who could have went in the previous round but was hanging out there still. I feel I got my steal in Xander the pick before, I have him as #17 and I got him at #29, a 12 pick value gain is great. Castillo is a bit of a reach possibly. I have him as a top 10 pitcher and with injury questions about Clevinger, Verlander, Snell and the top 3 guys essentially gone I felt that Castillo was a great pick here. I had him a few years back in another league and got frustrated as he didn't blossom yet, looks like I was just too early. He's improved every year since then and last year was a stud. I like his K/9 ratio and he keeps a Whip and ERA that I Can live with. Hoping for improvements in Cincinnati so that he gets a couple more wins. I feel he is just scratching the surface of his talent and that's why I grabbed him over a few other options. **Note this pick was before the season was suspended, I will say if I knew the season was suspended a few weeks at this time I would have picked Someone like Clevinger or Verlander... And Verlander went right before I picked...

4.13 Zach Greinke SP HOU I don't believe Greinke has ever been on my team and in hindsight I hate this pick, I should have went Morton, celvinger, thor or Giolito. I went strictly off rankings and not my gut here, that typically doesn't hurt me though but he's getting old, does he benefit from a full season in Houston? I never go back to back SPs, breaking all my own rules.
 
28loki
      SuperDude
      ID: 4211201420
      Fri, Mar 13, 2020, 12:12
4.05 Nelson Cruz, UTL, MIN-I almost went with an RP, but with Hader gone, I felt that I could wait a while and still avoid the 1st run on relievers. I was hesitant because of his age, but decided to take the risk.
 
29holt
      ID: 91212918
      Fri, Mar 13, 2020, 14:11
3.16 Snell, Blake SP TAM

I gotta keep plugging away at those innings pitched. Seemed noticeably harder to pick up useful innings off waivers the past couple seasons. I'm not really a huge Snell fan or anything. Tried to find someone else but the options seemed a round or two too early, and Snell has top tier stuff. It's just a matter of staying healthy, something you could say for every SP in the league.


4.01 49 Alvarez, Yordan UTL

A 22 year old rookie with a slash of .313 .412 .655 is just absurd. Yes it was discovered that he's not so skilled against the breaking ball, yes the Astros are evil, yes he has been slowed by sore knees, but it's the 4th round now. My main issue with him is that he is UTIL only. That's really bad. It's nice to have a way to use extra stashed OF/IF's, but I couldn't overlook the potential value here.
 
30Uptown Bombers
      ID: 28219112
      Fri, Mar 13, 2020, 17:49
4.07 Matt Olson, 1B, OAK

I wasn’t really sure what to do with this pick. The top SP’s available scare me a little and I prefer the ones in the next tier. Taking one now would be a reach based on ADP though. There are a handful of hitters, 1B in particular, who are all very similar, so part of me wanted to wait and see who made it back to me next round. But no one else jumped out and I had to get ready for work in the morning, so I just decided to take one of the 1B now. This worked out in hindsight, as 3 more 1B went off the board before my next pick. As for Olson, I drafted him last year and after his return from injury, he was well worth the pick. I expect the same from him this year.
 
31I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 384502818
      Fri, Mar 13, 2020, 19:55
4.12 (60) Justin Verlander, SP, HOU
Injury concerns for pitchers are never fun. However, wasn’t Verlander already a little injury discounted due to age? The lat strain although something that came up a few years ago, doesn’t appear to be a chronic injury. With a delayed start to the Regular season looming too, it’s hard to calculate how much time Verlander is actually going to miss (edit: made this pick 3 hours before the decision came down from the MLB). The combo Strasburg/Verlander seems like a solid way to start the staff. Thoughts on the fourth round: A lot of value seemed to be still on the board at the end of the round. I had Donaldson and Villar both in my queue for 60th overall.
 
32mmikulka
      ID: 3225119
      Fri, Mar 13, 2020, 20:18
4.10 Shohei Ohtani, UTIL/SP, LAA

I have Ohtani projected as the 11th best fantasy player overall in our format and I've been sitting on him for the past few rounds wondering how long I could safely wait.

He went at 7.02 in the AAA ESPN League but I expected he would go at least a round earlier in ours (he's split into 2 draftable players in Yahoo, so I didn't bother checking there). Aroldis Chapman was the other player I was considering with this pick, but I would have been almost as happy with Kirby Yates, so I eventually decided to grab Ohtani now and not take any chances.

So far he has been excellent at both positions:

As a batter, per 600 PA Ohtani has averaged:
.351/.532 with 83 R, 93 RBI, and 17 SB.

Here are his rate stat rankings among qualified batters over the past 2 years:
18th in SLG, 20th in RBI, 20th in SB, 45th in OBP, and 48th in R.

As a pitcher, per 200 IP, Ohtani is on pace for:
3.31/1.16 with 244 K and 15 W

Here is where his rate stats would rank among qualifying SP over the past 2 years:
12th in K, 21st in ERA, 26th in W, and 27th in WHIP (and tied for last place in SV).

Ohtani is a legit 9 category player!!

If he was only a full time DH and played in 150 games or only a full time SP and pitched 200 innings, those rate stats suggest he would still be worth drafting somewhere in the 3rd or 4th round. What makes Ohtani special (and fun to have on my fantasy team) is that his two-way playing allows him far more opportunities to produce value than any other player because he can start at DH several times in between his pitching starts.

The 50 best batters (using WAR) last year averaged 637 PA.
The 50 best starting pitchers (using WAR) last year averaged 187 IP.

If Ohtani did half of each, that would be 319 PA and 94 IP. Steamer projects him at 486 PA (152% of 319 PA) and 101 IP (108% of 94 IP).

Basically Ohtani's projected playing time maps out to the equivalent of either 828 PA or 243 IP.

Keep in mind, this is with Ohtani not pitching at all during the opening month, pitching only once per week after that, and not DHing during the game before he pitches. He has even more playing time upside if the Angels' plans change.

With the playing time Steamer currently projects, I have him as the 35th most valuable batter and the 54th most valuable pitcher: all with 1 pick and on 1 roster slot (which is even more valuable in our small bench format).

5.07 Aroldis Chapman, RP, NYY

I feel like I write the same rationale for either my 3th, 4th, or 5th round pick every year... Elite closers are great and consistently outproduce their draft location blah blah blah combine Chapman's average season with 140 IP of a free agent who goes 4.30/1.35 with a 7.5 K/9 and you get 200 IP of 3.65/1.24 with a 9.8 K/9 and also 34 saves blah blah.

Since 2012, Aroldis has averaged 2.10/0.99 with 15.1 K/9, 34 SV, and 3.4 W. During this 8 year stretch, he has never had fewer than 22 SV, an ERA above 3.22 or a WHIP above 1.15. Hopefully he keeps that streak going.
 
33Graydog
      ID: 22461020
      Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 00:04
4.15, Jonathan Villar, SS, MIA

Drafted due to his uniqueness. I didn't see any players with a similar skill set. I debated a few players who are much better baseball players, but a guaranteed lineup spot with 40 steal upside is just so rare I went for him here. The Marlins have no reason not to roll him out every day at the top of the lineup. If I can get career averages in OBP and SLG with 90 runs and 35+ steals this pick could be the one that puts me over the top, which seems like something to say about a risky pick - but this doesn't feel risky.

positional flex also a huge bonus.
 
34Graydog
      ID: 22461020
      Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 00:06
5.02, Kirby Yates, RP, SDG

Wanted a top tier closer. There is no way they would have made my round 6 pick. Had Yates at the top of my available list. Didn't really consider anything else.
 
35KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 02:23
4.14 Josh Donaldson, 3B, MIN
My propriety super-secret projection/ranking/valuation system actually had Donaldson worth 50 cents more than my round 2 pick, George Springer. Happy to have him still around in the 4th. Would've preferred a younger bat, like Matt Olson, but a 375/500 season from Donaldson with 180 R+RBIs from the cleanup spot in a loaded Twins lineup would be delicious.

Thought about GIancarlo Stanton here, but that was the only other consideration on the board.
 
36KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 02:41
5.03 Chris Paddack, SP, SD
First selection after the announcement that the season would be delayed. Given that, I strongly considered some injured folks who were slated to miss a week or two at the beginning of the season, including Clevinger, Judge, and Suarez. But I try not to draft damaged goods so early.

There were quite a few bats I liked, but nothing that screamed "pick me now" (Carlos Correa would have been my choice if forced to go hitter here) and enough that looked similarly valued that I figured I'd just let the draft sort out my options until I picked again in 26 picks.

On top of that, I suspected a bunch of starting pitching was going to come off the table, enough to take out a whole tier of guys I liked, so I decided to take my second starter now. Chris Paddack stood out to me just slightly above Morton and Nola. Most projections had him at 170 innings (compared to 180-200 for the starters ranked above him, like Morton and Nola) and with that discount still had him as a top 15-20 starter. With the delayed start, the others lose projected innings compared to Paddack. So that should, applying the maths, move him up. If he puts up a WHiP under 1.00 again in a full season of innings, striking out 10/9 innings, I'll be very happy.
 
37KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 02:57
7.03 Edwin Diaz, RP, NYM
Nine of the teams that'll be picking before I do again in round 8 lack a closer, so I should probably get one now before I'm choosing committee members. Lots of choices, all with warts.

Decided to embrace risk and swing for the fences here. Diaz is not even the named closer, and last year's performance leaves him with a very short leash assuming he gets first crack at it. But there's apparently nothing in the underlying data that explains an ERA over 5.00 and the something like 26 home runs per 9 innings he gave up last year. I'm crossing my fingers for a rebound.

Two out of the last three years, I ended up with a top 3 closer even though I was picking the 10th closer off the board (Kimbrel in 2017 and Yates in 2019). As luck would have it, Edwin Diaz is the 10th closer chosen in this year's draft. If he rights the ship and closes out games all season while striking out 15 every 9 innings, I've done it again.
 
38maspero
      ID: 38258615
      Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 07:42
3.09 Charlie Blackmon, OF, COL
I always tell to myself to go for scarcity and not for OFs even with a lower ADP. But I rarely resist the temptation and I did not this time either … So I went for Blackmon, a 4-cat guy (having lost the SB capability, especially good for runs and OBP. Later I could regret this when decent OFs are still on the board while MIs are not, we will see ….
4.08 Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, STL
This year many consider first base a (quasi) scarce position, and I did not want to be left without a good 1B. Here I had doubts between Goldie and Carlos Santana and a first round pitcher like Verlander, who slipped for injury concerns …. In hindsight (the postponing of the season) the latter would have clearly been the better choice (maybe a league winning choice …), instead I went for a guy that last year was a clear top ten, hoping he would repeat the 2018 instead the 2019 …. Knowing how late went Santana I could have gone for different roads here.
5.09 Tommy Pham, OF, SD
This have been my first night pick and not a particular good one … I put in my queue Clevinger first, Pham second and Roberto Osuna third. I took Pham, a very good player with OBP a most importantly SB capability (I always lack in stolen bases). But I should have gone for Osuna, whom I considered a top three closers, to guarantee some “sure” save. He went the subsequent pick ….
6.08 Eugenio Suarez, 3B, CIN
Picking Suarez, who should good to go when the season will finally start (I fear very late), I assured one of the best 3B, a 4-cat player, in a lineup got even better, who slipped for the injury concern. But picking Suarez I decided to not be a part of the imaginable closers run, that took place in the following round. As always I will be scrambling for saves (later and during the season) … :)
 
39I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 384502818
      Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 08:59
5.05 (69) Mike Clevinger, SP, CLE
In only 21 games last year, his elite K%, along with a sub-3 ERA lead to him finishing out the year as the 20th best SP. If he can get healthy soon (already throwing bullpen sessions), it would be great to see where he ends up at the end of the year. Of course, coming back from an injury can always lead to setbacks and/or re-aggravations, so the risks involved in my last two SPs aren’t to be quickly dismissed. Note, this pick came about 2 hours after MLB announced the delayed start to the season. Thoughts on the fifth round: It seems like we potentially have 3 managers looking to run Marmol strategy, as 3 managers don’t currently have an SP selected, yet they do have at least 1 RP.
 
40mailedfoot
      ID: 597203018
      Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 10:01
4.11 Yu Darvish, SP, CHC
Felt I needed to address pitching here, and finally decided to go with Darvish. He was phenomenal over the second half of last year (2.76 ERA/0.81 WHIP with 13 K/9) and if he can come anywhere close to these numbers, he’s a bargain at this pick. I considered going with Verlander but this was before the season was suspended, and I ultimately decided to avoid the lingering questions concerning his health.

5.06 Charlie Morton, SP, TAM
Darvish has had some inconsistency issues and seeing Morton was still available, I selected him here. Consistently good over the last three years, I like him more than the next bunch of projected starters to be drafted. He locks down the top of my rotation and provides insurance that I have established a high pitching floor with two second tier starters.
 
41Uptown Bombers
      ID: 28219112
      Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 10:50
5.10 Roberto Osuna, RP, HOU

Was hoping Paddack would make it to this pick but that didn’t happen. Still have a few SP grouped together so figured I would wait. Meanwhile, the injured Yankee OF’s were tempting me, especially since the season will be delayed. In the end, I decided that of the remaining RP, I liked Osuna more than the others by a bigger margin than any other player at the other positions. So that made my decision for me. I came into the draft prepared to punt saves altogether but obviously this changes that idea.
 
42Matt G
      ID: 45031313
      Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 10:56
5.04 Eloy Jimenez OF CHW I did not want another OF here but I couldn't pass up Eloy. He's another 4 category guy, power, rbis, OBP shouldn't hurt me. This pick allows me to focus more on categories I need later on as he solidifies a few for me. I got him at pick #68. I have him as a top 50 player and his ADP was 58, so again this is a value pick IMO.
 
43loki
      SuperDude
      ID: 4211201420
      Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 15:03
5.12 Kenley Jansen, RP, LAD-I had wanted one of the top tier RPs for this round because I usually have trouble finding relievers during the season. All of the ones I considered had already been drafted, and the remaining ones all had blemishes. I think that Jansen entered 2019 not fully healthy as evidenced by his early spring training velocity of 85-87. He has been throwing in the 90’s and has been tutored by Honeycutt and Herscheiser. Sandy Koufax usually shows up during spring training and gives advice to the pitching staff. If he does the Jansen of a few years ago could be back. At his age, however, Koufax should be prudent and not put himself at risk for exposure to coronavirus-19.
 
44holt
      ID: 91212918
      Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 20:15
5.16 Mcneil, Jeff 2B NYM

Kind of expected to take a closer but the talent in the hitter/SP pool is still really good. I'll find saves later. I had McNeil the past two years and I'll keep rostering him as long as he keeps doing his 2b/3b eligible .916 OPS thing.





6.01 Glasnow, Tyler SP TAM

Almost talked myself into A. Judge here. I probably should have just gone with Judge. His injury doesn't seem severe. But, I can't shake the idea that he is going to be on the injured list on a regular basis throughout his career. This league is very unforgiving when it comes to roster space. Still, Judge was probably the correct pick here. Anyways, I moved ahead with filling out my SP's, following up Scherzer and Snell with Tyler Glasnow. Woodruff and S.Gray were also considered, but Glasnow has the look of a future Cy Young/1st rd pick to me. He hasn't been super durable so far but I'd slap myself if I had to watch him collect a Cy Young on someone else's fantasy team this season. We'll see.
 
45RJ
      ID: 16158169
      Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 20:20
3.01 Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD
I saw him as the best available option as I wanted a top SP and most scouting reports show that while he has lost a tick or two on his pitches, he has still been effective. Most importantly he’s fully healthy going into the year. I realize I probably be probably won’t top 200 IP but even 175-180 solid innings, 15+ wins on a good team and historically reliable ratios.
 
46RJ
      ID: 16158169
      Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 20:48
4.16 DJ LeMahieu, 1B-2B-3B, NYY
I saw him as a good flexible option. He’s going to be leading off for the Yankees and is now a seasoned veteran. He’s been very durable throughout his career and can play around the diamond to fill in those necessary GP slots throughout the season.

5.01 Josh Bell, 1B, PIT
Bell had a breakout year last year and even with some regression this year I think he was a solid option at 1B after the top options have left the board. He’s entering his age 27 season and if I can get about 80-85% of what he did last year I’ll be satisfied. Plus I wanted to lock up a power slugging 1B before the board dries out.
 
47loki
      SuperDude
      ID: 4211201420
      Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 23:29
6.05 Sonny Gray, SP, CIN-I wanted a pitcher with good ratios and adequate strike outs. I would have preferred Trevor Bauer but was put off by only one year of sub 4.00 ERA.
 
48Uptown Bombers
      ID: 28219112
      Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 08:23
6.07 Jose Berrios, SP, MIN
The draft has taken on an eerie quality to me. I’m starting to get the feeling that these guys I am drafting won’t really play this year. Who knows? Hopefully some clarity on this virus will come sooner than later. In the meantime, I hope everyone is safe and largely unaffected.

As for Berrios, he was not on my radar as SP1 before the draft, but this is what I get for passing on Cole back at round 1. Serious regret on that now. Berrios has put up stable numbers the past 3 years, yet projections don’t want to give him credit for that. :shrug: I’ll gladly take an average of those numbers. That said, I would have taken Robles if he had made it to me.
 
49Matt G
      ID: 45031313
      Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 13:23
6.13 Miguel Sano, 3b, MIN I needed a corner IF and was worried I'd get shut out of the top ones here. Sano provides power and RBIs only. Other guys I considered here, mainly Robles due to the steals and I was willing to go a little longer on the CI spot, Once Robles was gone, Hoskins was a choice but he was the pick before, Correa and Suarez were also considerations but they were gone too.
 
50I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 384502818
      Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 14:09
6.12 (92) Rhys Hoskins, 1B, PHI
Since breaking into the league three years ago, Hoskins has been a consistent OBP/SLG producer (.364 /.494 avg). He also is the cleanup hitter for a good offence. There’s talk that he’s been working on his bat mechanics coming off a “down year”. He’s also been very durable so far in his career, hopefully that sticks as I have some risks in that department so far. Thoughts on the sixth round: The mini RP run in the 5th slowed and allowed a lot of value SPs/Hitters to go off. Especially liked these big bats: Judge / Stanton / Suarez / Chapman.
 
51Matt G
      ID: 45031313
      Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 15:24
7.04 Raisel Iglesias, RP, CIN New strategy this year was to get some saves early on. I'm usually begging for closers around the trade deadline so this is a new strategy, though this was earlier than I wanted to be honest. I had Diaz Queued but he went the pick before. There was a run on closers to I had to adjust a bit.
 
52slizz
      ID: 532371213
      Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 16:34
3.13 - Austin Meadows, OF, TB - What a surprise.  I was expecting Machado to be the pick here as I pegged Meadows to Fosten at the very latest.  Went 2.13 in Tout Wars OB%, was going as low as pick 49, but averaging an ADP of 34 in TGFBI. 

Another surprise was Hiura being available.  Hiura was consistently 43-45 and will be drafted likely in the 2nd round a la Devers next year.  My goal with this pick was to swing for the fences and get a guy who could play himself into Rd. 1 value in 2021.  Meadows fit that bill more than Hiura.  Meadows xHR was 45 and is just about to enter his prime years as a hitter.  I'm hoping I made the right call as Hiura is pretty awesome (& MI).  I delayed this pick by about 20 minutes doing research on the potential of Machado falling to round 2 and needed a contingency plan like round 1:

Machado
Vladito
Moncada
Olson
Alvarez

4.04 - Manny Machado, 3B/SS, SD - Was originally my 3rd round target, but rolled the dice based on players I might be comfortable with in the event he was sniped from me.  My gamble paid off...

Machado 3 year average:  337 OB% / 34 HR / 82 R / 95 RBI / 9 SB

I doubt he'll get me more than 5 SB...however, that type of production is bankable.  Machado is a year removed from a being a top 20 ADP...and I am quite confident he will push top 20 overall status in 2020.  My reason:

On August 8th, Machado was slashing:
.272 / .340  / .494

He took a hard fastball to his left arm.  Now he doesn't miss any games, which is encouraging for lineup availability...however, he had the following slash line after the HBP:

.213 / .319 / .375

Coincidence?  I hope not...this is one of those picks that could blow up in my face.
 
53slizz
      ID: 532371213
      Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 16:41
5.13 - Vladimir Gurrero Jr., 3B, TOR - A guy I would've taken in Rd. 4 (if Machado was taken) available to me in Round 5?  Yes Please!

I think Vladito also fits that mold of a player who could push Round 1 value in 2021...he's hitting cleanup for the Blue Jays which feature a ton of young talent and we all know he has the raw skills... the question is can he hone them in 2020 for my benefit?  I hope so.
 
54mailedfoot
      ID: 597203018
      Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 16:52
6.11 Matt Chapman, 3B, OAK
I still need a 3B and the top options are winding down. Chapman projects for something like .340/.500 and is solidly entrenched in the middle of the A’s lineup, so he should contribute plenty of runs and RBIs. He sits at the top of most of the lists for the remaining 3B available and there are people drafting behind me who also still need a 3B.

7.06 Hector Neris, RP, PHI
There have been 5 closers taken since my selection of Chapman and it will be 21 picks until my next selection. The top options are gone, and it looks like if I want to assure myself of a solid closer (if there is such a thing) leaving the draft, it’s now or never. Neris figures to be the man in Philadelphia and I don’t see that he has much competition. He’s been decent and consistent over the last few years, so I grab him here. I don’t really want to be drafting a closer right now, but my hand has been somewhat forced.
 
55slizz
      ID: 532371213
      Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 17:05
6.04 - Victor Robles, OF, WAS - With 3 guys who hit in the middle of lineups I needed a burner to balance out speed.  100 SB is roughly 8 points, so this is a great start to closing the gap.  Robles has always been a guy who consistently got on base in the minors but it has not yet translated to the show.  What has translated is his ability to steal a base or 2...if he can improve his OB% by .10 (totally doable) that should give me about 30 bags and whatever else he can contribute.  

7.13 - Nick Anderson, RP, TB - probably my least favorite pick.  I saw a massive closer run and didn't want to be left out of the mix and playing musical chairs on the waiver wire.  While I've always fielded a top bullpen in both G20 and RIBC, it doesn't matter if you don't have closers.  Anderson was straight fire for Tampa Bay after the trade and I hope he can continue to mow down hitters in the 9th.

8.04 - Kyle Schwarber, OF, CHC - Another outfielder?  No problem...I actually was going to take Benintendi, but couldn't say yes due to some scathing data and articles I read on him.  While he should be 15/15 player, I am left wondering if his rookie year was his ceiling.  At worst, he'll replicate 2019.  

While it may seem early for Schwarber, I didn't want to risk him another 26 picks when his ADP is 136.  In sharp drafts he went as early as pick 120 and late as 150.  My next pick was pick 141 and my FOMO was too great. 

Schwarber second half:
.280 AVG /.280 xBA
.410 wOBA /.405 xwOBA
.631 SLG /.624 xSLG

Whole season:
O-swing: 26% 2019 / 25% 2018 
Contact: 74% / 72%
GB: 38% / 44%
Hard: 42% / 40%
AEV: 92.7mph / 90mph
Barrels/PA: 9% / 7.3%
95+: 51.2% / 45%
Hard Hit 99th percentile
Exit Velocity 97th percentile
 
56Graydog
      ID: 22461020
      Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 17:18
6.15 Santana, Carlos - 1B - CLE

I love him for this format. By targeting steals early (Acuna, Villar) I can somewhat ignore steals for my next several picks. I wont be greedy and expect last years numbers again from Santana but a combination of the last 4 years would be just fine here. Statcast loved his 2019 leaving me hope that he can be closer to last year than previous years.

7.02 Giles, Ken - RP - TOR

I had closer targeted here after my 5th round pick. RJ surprisingly took two RPs with his picks just before this one (my two highest ranked guys!). So I took my next ranked guy. Some risk that he will be traded in the summer if the Jays are out. Considered Neris but Giles peripherals seem stronger.
 
57mmikulka
      ID: 3225119
      Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 17:40
6.10 Carlos Correa, SS, HOU

I would have taken Giancarlo Stanton if he hadn't been drafted right before me: that pick could turn out to be a spectacular bargain. I considered Rhys Hoskins, but I went with Correa because he was my highest-projected SS (and MI) available by a big margin.

Correa's health will probably dictate his value, considering that he hasn't reached 500 PA since 2016. Even if he only plays 60% of the season, that should be enough time to put up value with an .845 career OPS and excellent R/RBI rates (which might drop a bit if the cheating was a significant factor).

7.07 Justin Turner, 3B, LAD

Gary Sanchez and Yasmani Grandal were on my radar, and I considered taking a second closer, but Turner really stood out to me here.

Like Correa, Turner should be an excellent batter (.381/.506 in his 6 years as a Dodger) but his value is tempered by his health (484 PA per year). I'm probably committed to a batter-heavy roster at this point (helped slightly by Ohtani), but I expect that committing to this strategy will free me up to take high upside batters with less playing time (or with big platoon splits) during the late rounds.
 
58I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 384502818
      Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 18:19
7.05 (101) Marcell Ozuna, OF, ATL
Ozuna was very unlucky last year. Not just from an injury perspective, but in his StatCast underlying numbers as well. He has improved in Barrel%, Exit Velocity, XSLG, XWOBACON, & HardHit %. Hitting from the cleanup slot for the Braves should lead to plenty of RBI opportunities. A regression from his SB (12) #s are probably coming though, as last year’s seems to be an outlier. Thoughts on the seventh round: 7 more closers go off the board. Last year I didn’t grab many (beyond Hader), and it looks like I’ll be following a similar path this year.
 
59mmikulka
      ID: 3225119
      Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 18:36
8.10 Gary Sanchez, C, NYY

Like my last 2 picks, Sanchez has an injury history to go along with elite rate stats for his position.

Among catchers over the past 4 years, Sanchez ranks:
1st in OPS (.846, nearest contenders are .820 [Contreras] and .814 [Grandal])
1st in R/600 PA (86, nearest contenders are 78 [Realmuto] and 77 [undrafted])
1st in RBI/600 PA (100, nearest contenders are 96 [undrafted] and 92 [undrafted])

Sanchez has been almost 170 PA per year behind Realmuto and 130 per year behind Grandal, but he is 11th overall and only 50 PA or so behind 5th place. Despite missing all that time, Sanchez still ranks 3rd in total R+RBI.

He's recovering from the flu and a sore back, and there was a question about whether or not he'd be ready for opening day, but now that it has been moved back, Sanchez likely will be ready.

9.07 Joey Votto, 1B, CIN

Having OBP as a category instead of AVG made Votto a perennial 1st rounder until the past 2 years, when he basically stopped hitting for power. Last year was particularly lousy, with a .768 OPS and only 126 R+RBI despite over 600 PA (he did still manage 5 SB).

Votto is 36, but I'm counting on a bit of a rebound. He seems extra motivated and genuinely angry about how mediocre he was last year, and Cincinnati added a bunch of good batters to their lineup. I expect the counting numbers to go up if nothing else, and I wouldn't rule out 1 more year of a .400+ OBP.
 
60loki
      SuperDude
      ID: 4211201420
      Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 19:38
7.12 Ramon Laureano, OF, OAK-I wanted the best hitter available who also had some speed. Laureano met these criteria.
 
61RJ
      ID: 16158169
      Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 20:30
6.16 Brad Hand, RP, CLE
I saw him as the best available closer at the time and the drop off in RP was going to be greater than that of the other batting and SP options. Hand has a lock on the Indians’ closer role. He ran out of gas a bit toward the end of last season but reports are that he’s making frequent visits to the trainers room to preserve his arm for the long haul. Plus Cleveland is pretty good so he should have ample save chances.

7.01 Taylor Rogers, RP, MIN
A lot of the same things about Hand I could say about Rogers here. Saves are always scarce in any 16 team league. Looks like I started a little trend here too as starting with Hand as four of the next five picks were closers!
 
62holt
      ID: 491153264
      Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 01:25
7.16 Workman, Brandon RP BOS

I passed on saves on my 5/6 picks and at that time pretty much resolved to force myself to take a closer on this turn. So, Workman it is. I figured he was the only one left who was both guaranteed the 9th inning role and also had decent 2019 numbers. 71 2/3 IP, 29 hits, 104 K's.



8.01 113 Edman, Tommy 2B STL

I didn't want to be sitting with 5 pitchers and 3 hitters after 8 rounds so I went the hitter route here. I still only had McNeil as a middle infielder so took a close look at my options there. Two Dodgers, Lux and Seager, also had my interest but I had no stolen bases to count on so Edman rose to the top. I'm also a Cards fan and seem to always end up with no Cards drafted. Edman is slated to be a super utility guy but I think he'll pretty much see every day action. This pick feels like a reach and didn't seem right at the time, but Edman's speed will hopefully justify it in the end. He went in rds 6, 8, and 10 in the other ribc drafts so I'm not just being a foolish weirdo here. I doubt that he replicates his .850 OPS though, and without the steals I would never draft him.
 
63holt
      ID: 491153264
      Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 01:35
re-posting this one. It not moved to the official rationale thread yet.

3.16 Snell, Blake SP TAM

I gotta keep plugging away at those innings pitched. Seemed noticeably harder to pick up useful innings off waivers the past couple seasons. I'm not really a huge Snell fan or anything. Tried to find someone else but the options seemed a round or two too early, and Snell has top tier stuff. It's just a matter of staying healthy, something you could say for every SP in the league.
 
64Uptown Bombers
      ID: 28219112
      Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 17:20
7.10 Cavan Biggio, 2B, TOR
Between this pick and next, I was hoping to secure some SB’s. I wonder how an abbreviated season might impact steals, an already dwindling part of the game. But I don’t want to ignore them too much and I don’t think I have enough SB resources on my team. My preference would be an OF eligible player here and that sorts Ramon Laureano towards the top of my list. Researching before the pick, however, led me to Biggio instead. A keen batter’s eye bodes well for our league and he has legit 20/20 potential (oops, had 20/20 potential; now he has whatever proportional version of 20/20 potential that will exist in a shortened season).

8.07 Andrew Benintendi, OF BOS
My first choice, Laureano, was gone. Still have several OF’s I was looking at here, but as noted from previous rationale, I was trying to boost SB totals with these two picks. That pushes Benintendi above the others in this draft range. Paired with Biggio, I am on the low end of my SB goals for these rounds, but both these hitters provide some upside in the other categories to make it worth it. This makes the second year in a row that I draft Benintendi as my OF1, albeit at a 6 round discount this year. Last year, he was disappointing, no doubt. But now in round 8, even a repeat of last year’s numbers would be palatable. And he is still only 25 and capable of a rebound.
 
65Matt G
      ID: 45031313
      Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 20:46
8.13 Mike Soroka, SP, ATL Wanted to bolster the bullpen, I believe Soroka has potential to be an Ace wish the Ks were higher. This is exactly who I wanted to target here.

But ERA and WHIP are where I wanted and he should win some games.
 
66KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 22:14
6.14 Mike Moustakas, 2B/3B, CIN
Hadn't yet drafted anyone in the middle infield, which 5+ years ago would have been apostasy in this league. But now you can get middle infield scraps who hit 20 home runs. Moustakas has been pretty consistent, and I can't really complain about 320/500 out of the keystone. Positional flexibility (enabling him to play at 5 different spots in our lineup) is a small bonus.

Alternative at 2B was Cavan Biggio, who would've been nice for the steals, and has a more enticing upside. Passing on him meant I'll be looking for steals later, and the later you look for steals, the bigger the hit you take in all the other categories.

The real downside of drafting Moustakas here was that it meant I wouldn't have Justin Turner on my team this year (I was going RP with my next pick). He's been on my roster 3 of the last 4 years, he's my favorite player on the hometown Dodgers, and he was higher up my board than Moustakas. In an ultimately meaningless world, I don't know why I cared more about filling my middle infield slots on my imaginary baseball team than having Justin Turner on MY team, because the joy of watching him rope line drives and knowing he was carrying Smith & 9th to another year of RIBC majors was one of those small things that make it all bearable.
 
67mailedfoot
      ID: 597203018
      Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 22:20
8.11 Max Kepler, OF, MIN
Needing OFs, I land on Max Kepler. He had been improving with baby steps his first couple of seasons and took a major stride forward last year when he slashed .336/.519 with 198 runs and RBIs. Still only 27 and presumably in his prime, I’m hoping he’s got another gear. He should be hitting near the top of a stacked lineup and has enough speed to swipe a few bags.
9.06 Michael Brantley, OF, HOU
Brantley becomes my second OF. He is projected for about a .350/.450 line, plenty of runs and RBIs and 5-10 SB. I’m basically trying to fill another of my open OF slots with good, dependable production.
 
68KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 22:20
8.14 Corey Seager, SS, LAD
Fun fact I learned doing research on Seager - he is 25 years old! That's it. Not sure what to make of a guy who only hit 19 home runs in a year when [undrafted] and [undrafted] hit 28 and 22 respectively (trust me, if you saw those names, you'd see the pathetic-ness of Seager hitting only 19).

Crossing my fingers for a rebound to his 2017 numbers (375/480) with quality counting stats in a loaded Dodgers lineup. Not bad for a MI in the 8th round.
 
69I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 384502818
      Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 22:45
8.12 (124) Jorge Polanco, SS, MIN
I like Polanco’s value. He doesn’t have the elite speed that the top couple tiers have at SS, but he’s got a great batting profile, and will see plenty of opportunities hitting out of the two-slot for the Twins. Thoughts on the eighth round: The last of the 2nd tier Catchers are now off the board… still too early for me.
 
70loki
      SuperDude
      ID: 4211201420
      Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 23:06
8.05 Tim Anderson, SS, CWS-He will not lead the league in hitting again because he will not repeat his BABIP of .399, but there is always the chance he will not go down too much from 2019. In any event he is a source of SBs.
 
71Matt G
      ID: 45031313
      Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 08:44
9.04 Gavin Lux, 2b, LAD Lux is my breakout pick this year, I think he has 20/20 potential and has one of the best hit tools in this years crop of call ups. I see him with Ozzie Albies potential but a few more steals. Just set and forget him at 2B and run with it. I reached a bit here, didn't think he would be around later and I needed to fill that MI hole that I was looking at.
 
72I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 384502818
      Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 10:06
9.05 (133) Jesus Luzardo, RP, OAK
After the last 3 picks were invested into hitters, I decided to invest into another arm for the rotation. If you want to be competitive in Ks and Wins, you need to invest into starters. Luzardo is the 3rd rated MLB ready prospect (behind Gavin Lux & Luis Robert). In what we’ve seen in 12IP last year, and 8IP in the preseason… it’s really hard not to be excited about what he might be able to do in the majors. He’s got 4 great swing-and-miss pitches. Other pitchers considered here: Montas / Gallen. Thoughts on the ninth round: Really liked the OFs taken in this round, Mercado / Franmil / Dahl.
 
73slizz
      ID: 21261712
      Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 13:13
9.13 - Wheeler, Zack, SP, PHI - pre-draft I was targeting Zac Gallen with this pick and was left with both options.  I ultimately selected Wheeler as I feel his upside is higher as his raw stuff is up there with Gerritt Cole.  Using Savant's affinity tool, which measures speed and movement, there are only 3 people close to Cole:

.94 comp in Wheeler
.80 comp in Montas
.79 comp in Woodruff

Additionally, what sold me on Wheeler over Gallen was was Realmuto, who is one of the best, if not the best, pitch framers in the business.  He goes from Wilson Ramos (one of the worst) to the best (Realmuto)...so logic points that he should be better.  At the very worst, Wheeler's numbers will be no worse than what they were in 2019 with the upside of a Cy Young discussion.  Last, that .311 BABIP figures to regress as he is going to improve with the switch.

I didn't see the same Cy Young ceiling with Gallen, which is why I went Wheeler over him...like I said, very close!

10.04 - Amed Rosario, SS, NYM - Toyed with going SP / SP again and locking up Gallen as my SP4 here.  Would've been very nice to go into the season with deGoat, Buehler, Wheeler, and Gallen.  In hindsight, I should've done that as I still could've got Elvis Andrus or even Amed Rosario in the 11th.  Flat out, I panicked due to my lack of hitting. Call this a gut play and that I feel 2019 is his floor for 2020.  As per fangraphs:

 Fangraphs - Amed Rosario Arrived a Little Late, But He's Here Now 

He is a gamer and pretty much plays everyday, should get me 20+ sb, has progressed each season offensively, and there is upside that he could hit .300+ like he did in the minors.  I'm bullish on him as he's still maturing as a player.  I think this is the last year he goes this late and will be at least 5th-6th round value in redraft leagues 2021-on. 
 
74loki
      SuperDude
      ID: 4211201420
      Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 14:32
9.12 Alex Colome, RP, CWS-I picked Colome for the same reason that I picked Jansen in the 5th round. I have difficulty in finding closers mid-season, and I wanted one that at least had the job at the beginning of the season.
 
75holt
      ID: 91212918
      Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 16:59
9.16 Dahl, David OF COL

Still had needs at C, 1B, SS, & OF. Dahl was one of the few that I was feeling much enthusiasm for at this point. If he can manage to avoid injury (I guess a half season schedule will help there) then he should be worth well more than what I paid for him. Expecting .350/.530 with good run production.



10.01 145 Sale, Chris SP BOS

Worth a shot in the 10th round. His recent elbow issues don't appear to be overly severe and the delayed start to the season should work in his favor. Also considered Lamet here and looked at saves options but just wasn't feeling it. Figured Sale offered the most potential impact
 
76Graydog
      ID: 22461020
      Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 17:18
8.15 Garver, Mitch - C - MIN

It seemed like the top catchers were about to fall and I wanted to land one of them. Garver turned into a statcast beast last year by changing his launch angle and having a hard hit rate of 50%. My major concern is playing time as the Twins seem cautious about running him out all the time. This might be alleviated by the shorter season and by Avila being the back up.

9.02 Castellanos, Nicholas - OF - CIN

Seemed like the safest bet available to contribute in 4 categories (maybe not OBP). 2nd on my board was Encarnacion who went only one pick before my next slot 34 picks later! I suspect he will like his new home park and will also get some extra games at Wrigly where he raked last year with the Cubs. Statcast has him as in the top 10% of XSLG over the past 4 years, assuming that continues I expect good value with this pick.
 
77Uptown Bombers
      ID: 28219112
      Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 18:56
9.10 Frankie Montas, SP, OAK
I figure if I have one cheater (Bregman) on my team, why not take another? Montas had a breakout year before his PED suspension. Fangraphs says “Don’t let the PED suspension fool you. Montas evolved into an entirely different pitcher by displacing much of his two-seam usage with a new splitter.” Works for me! This is the kind of sleeper I’ll need after passing on the top-end SP’s.
 
78slizz
      ID: 21261712
      Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 22:35
11.13 - Kingery, Scott, 3B/OF, PHI - In Tout Wars and TGFBI he's consistently going top 150...so I had to sweat this one out.  When I did draft peek / adp in draftime, his ADP still had variance and, only due to Judy (121), his ADP is high as it is in draftime.  Pre-draft, Kingery was my Round 9 target...however, I felt his awful ranking by rotowire would let him slip another round and the gamble paid off. 

In 126 games, Kingery hit 19 HR with 15 SB to the tune of a .788 OPS...while the OPS isn't exactly ideal, he will gain 2B eligibility by the second week of the season he will have 2B/3B/OF eligibility and I can manipulate my lineup to fit his bat in it.  It's not crazy to expect a 40 combined HR and SB pace over the course of a 162 game season.

12.04 - Boyd, Matt, SP, DET - Would've gone Gallegos if he was there...as I type this, I am having buyers remorse.  While Boyd is a fine player, I think I could've done as good later on.  Boyd has an awesome fastball / slider combo...but lacks a third pitch.  Rumors have it that he is developing an average changeup, which would go a long way towards being unpredictable.  Oh well... I liked taking him at this point pre-draft, but that was with me going Harper in the 1st.
 
79loki
      SuperDude
      ID: 4211201420
      Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 22:43

10.05 Jon Berti, SS, MIA-Berti is a reach for the 10th round, and how well he does depends on whether he can get enough playing time. However, he goes along with my draft plan of trying to get speed into my lineup.
 
80RJ
      ID: 242361721
      Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 22:49
8.16 Willson Contreras, C, CHC
Saw him as the last of the premium catcher options. In only 105 games he still managed 24 home runs in his second straight all star appearance. I hate to preface anybody with the dreaded “If he can stay healthy...” line but it kind of makes sense with catchers. I see him being a top 5 catcher.

9.01 Madison Bumgarner, SP, ARI
Really need another reliable SP and I thought of Madbum as the best on the board. Briefly considered Sale as well but figured that Madbum will pitch more innings this year.

10.06 Trey Mancini, OF, BAL
Probably didn’t consider this one as much as I should have. Mancini has a breakout year last year and fills in at 1B and OF which is a plus but he only last week had surgery to remove a malignant tumor from his colon. I am just hoping he can make a speedy recovery, with the delay of the regular season that he can get healthy in time to make a difference. Probably should have gone SP here but what can you do? It was locked in.

11.01 Lorenzo Cain, OF, MIL
Leading off for the Brewers this season, I see Cain as a quality bounce back candidate. His career low BABIP (.301) last season suggests he got unlucky. He plays a ton of games, stays healthy, and should also chip in 20+ SBs with solid ratios.
 
81Uptown Bombers
      ID: 28219112
      Wed, Mar 18, 2020, 00:21
10.07 Adam Eaton, OF, WAS
Made this pick from a list in my queue while more than 24 hours away from my spreadsheet. Not sure I would make this pick again. I know I put him into my queue because I was still looking for SB help. Eaton helps in a few categories and his OBP boost will help later in the draft when I go searching for power to make up for his deficiencies.
 
82mmikulka
      ID: 3225119
      Wed, Mar 18, 2020, 01:15
10.10 David Price, SP, LAD

I find myself in a familiar position: it's getting close to midway through the draft and I don't have any full-time starting pitchers. I probably would have gambled on Chris Sale if he made it to me. James Paxton and Craig Kimbrel were both under consideration, but went with the 2 picks before mine.

Price has 6 consecutive seasons of at least 8.9 K/9 and less than 2.9 BB/9. The first 5 of those seasons resulted in an ERA below 4 and a WHIP below 1.20. Last year was a mediocre 4.28/1.31. His FIP, xFIP, and SIERA ranged between 3.62 and 3.85, so it looks like bad luck was in play (even if his pitches did get hit harder slightly more often than usual).

He goes from the AL to the NL, from a hitter's park to a pitchers park, and from a division full of stacked offenses to a division with weak offenses (outside of @COL). He should be in an even better position to pick up wins. Hopefully Price can stay healthy and put up a solid IP total (whatever that turns out to mean this season).

11.07 Joe Jiménez, RP, DET

It was time for my 2nd closer: I was originally focused on Gallegos, Kela, and Doolittle, but concerns about all 3 (Kela ended up going ahead of my pick anyway) led me to bail and take Jiménez.

Kela has been good, but 3 of his last 4 seasons have been under 40 IP. Doolittle looked pretty awful at the end of last season and his injury history is also fairly extensive.

Gallegos has a whole lot of upside and I was originally excited to draft him. That said, I'm skeptical that he will start the year as a full time closer, and even if he does (or emerges out of a committee), there are 3 different players that I can see Gallegos giving up his closer job to during the course of the season regardless of how well he's pitching. My priority with this pick was saves, so I went with Jiménez, who clearly has the job and has basically no competition.

Jiménez's career ERA/WHIP of 5.41/1.37 is not exactly inspiring. That said, it's raised significantly by 19 awful innings in his rookie season. His 2 full years have been 4.34/1.26 with 11.8 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. While that's still lousy for a closer, his FIP (3.78) and xFIP (4.00) tell a kinder story, and his SIERA has been downright good (3.27).

I don't expect him to be great, but I think Jiménez has a good shot at putting up tolerable ratios with an excellent K rate and lasting all year in the role.
 
83I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 384502818
      Wed, Mar 18, 2020, 09:11
10.12 (156) Jose Leclerc, RP, TEX
Last year, I didn’t draft many closers, and so far this year, they were seeming less and less likely to be part of my draft build. Fortunately, I finally felt I could reach for one a little bit here, and still be comfortable with the potential payback to the team. Last season he sputtered pretty hard to start the year, but by end of year, his #s proved who had the most talent in that bullpen. He’s worth a shot as the current #1 for Save opportunities. Thoughts on the tenth round: Sale / Paxton / Mancini, the all injured bunch, go off the board… I guess it seems like the right moment to start taking some high upside picks.
 
84Matt G
      ID: 45031313
      Wed, Mar 18, 2020, 11:39
10.13 Ian Kennedy, RP, KC Didn't want to get stuck for saves again this year. Kennedy served me well last year in the leagues I had him. Other closers were going around this time as well, he's a candidate to get dealt mid year but KC will keep pushing him out there to showcase until then.
 
85Matt G
      ID: 45031313
      Wed, Mar 18, 2020, 15:18
11.04 Nick Senzel OF CIN I was extremely high on Senzel last year, I acquired him in a number of leagues and was hoping for that 20/20 stat and some high OBP with 2B and OF eligibility, his OBP was lower than I liked but he showed his 20/20 potential when he was healthy. He also lost 2B eligibility. I see him as an upside pick, should he be healthy I love what he can provide. There were so many options here but I needed some steals and he seemed the most reliable in terms of having a job.
 
86Uptown Bombers
      ID: 28219112
      Wed, Mar 18, 2020, 20:14
11.10 Dinelson Lamet, SP, SD
Another upside pick for SP3. Lamet should deliver a high K rate but a breakthrough means he also helps in the ratios. As is, he is average on ratios for this stage of the draft, so I will hope for the breakthrough. Or just take his innings and K’s. Or cut him. That about covers all bases. But more seriously, this guy could benefit from a shortened season, as he likely wasn’t throwing 200 IP anyway. Now I hopefully get his full value.
 
87mailedfoot
      ID: 597203018
      Wed, Mar 18, 2020, 20:33
10.11 Hunter Dozier, OF, KC
This was a difficult decision as there are about 6-7 players I would like to take, and I figure at least some will be gone by my next pick. Dozier had a breakout season last year with a .348/.522 line. Some regression is in order (.325/.475?), but if he can continue improving, he has the potential to get close to last year’s numbers. His dual position eligibility will come in handy.
11.06 Zac Gallen, SP, ARI
Seriously considered Gallen with the last pick, so am happy he is still available here. A budding young star with a potent arsenal of pitches, he had issues with walks in his first go round last year. His minor league track record indicates he should improve on this and I think he will. Also considered Lamet and he was taken a few picks later.
 
88KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Wed, Mar 18, 2020, 20:57
9.03 Oscar Mercado, OF, CLE
Needed another stolen base contributor, and liked the upside Mercado offers. He seems like a super athlete who has just taken a few years to figure out hitting. He went 19hr/29sb between AAA and the big leagues last year (with 2/3 of that production in the majors). A don't expect him to produce at a 20/30 rate, but the chance that he does was too good to pass up here. He could go 10/30 and I'd be perfectly satisfied. And I like mixing high upside with high floor picks in these middle rounds.

Thought about a second closer, but figured I could play chicken a bit longer on that (I agree with whoever said "if you like your RP2, you overpaid").

A bit disappointed that the picks are so predictable in this draft. A few years ago, once we got to round 6 or 7, many more picks came out of left field. Now, you can basically pull up the Tout Wars Mixed Draft results, cross out who has already been chosen in our league, and predict who's likely to be picked. Maybe that's to be expected these days. Hopefully, the draft gets a little more crazy soon, as managers ignore the Fangraphs rankings and start picking from their gut.
 
89KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Wed, Mar 18, 2020, 21:03
10.14 Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, CHW
"When the fantasy has ended
And all the children gone
Something good inside me,
Helps me to carry on.

I ate some bugs, I ate some grass,
I used my hand, To wipe my tears
To kiss your mouth I break my vow
No no no, no no, no way Jose
Unless you want to
Then we break our vows together

Encarnacion!
Encarnacio-ho-ho-ho-ho-ho-hon!
Encarnacion!
Encarnacio-ho-ho-ho-ho-ho-hon!"
 
90KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Wed, Mar 18, 2020, 21:10
11.03 Julio Urias, SP, LAD
Another upside pick in these middle rounds. His exit velocity is legit top 10 in all of baseball, and he could put up top-20 starter value in a shortened season.
 
91I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 384502818
      Wed, Mar 18, 2020, 22:13
11.05 (165) Andrew Mccutchen, OF, PHI
Another solid OBP contributor, who should be leading off for the Phillies when healthy. Should be able to not help, nor hurt the SLG/SB CATs neither. I would have loved to have added another piece to my pitching squad, but there were lots of nice options still available so hopefully they don’t all disappear before my next pick (Gallen goes off next pick though). Thoughts on the eleventh round: Another 4 relievers go off the board… It’s hard to envision my team being very competitive in saves.
 
92loki
      SuperDude
      ID: 4211201420
      Wed, Mar 18, 2020, 22:42
11.12 Robbie Ray, SP, AZ-Ray was the last SP with more than 200 projected Ks. I am sacrificing ratios with him and will have to make up for this later in the draft.


 
93loki
      SuperDude
      ID: 4211201420
      Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 16:52
12.05 Ryan Braun, OF, MIL-He can still hit for power and average and run at 36 years of age. Needed hitting and he seemed to be the best one available.
 
94Uptown Bombers
      ID: 28219112
      Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 20:49
12.07 Khris Davis, DH, OAK
I don’t love filling the UT spot with a DH, usually avoid them. And obviously, Davis did not perform up to standards last year. But I was looking for power and RBI for my team and talked myself into Davis. A lot of what I read says injuries were to blame for last year’s downslide, making him a candidate to rebound this year. Steamers particularly favors a bounce back. Drafting a guy in round 12 who was drafted last year in the RIBC on average @ 3.05 seems like a worthwhile enough risk. If it was truly just one bad year, then this pick is a steal. If last year was proof that Davis is done, well, I haven’t invested too much draft capital. Based on the other RIBC drafts, maybe I could have waited longer on him, but I know I would have been bummed if someone snagged him before my next pick.
 
95mmikulka
      ID: 3225119
      Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 22:48
12.10 Will Smith, RP, ATL

Unlike the catcher, this particular Will Smith won't be spending much time in Bel Air (though as a member of the NL East, he'll see his fair share of @PHI).

Since switching from starter to reliever in 2013, Smith has been great (3.01/1.15 with 12.2 K/9). He has done this across 3 teams, and his last 2 years have been his best ones. With only Ohtani at SP through the first 9 rounds, I'll need some high quality RP to keep my ratios under control, and Smith should go a long way towards that.

Smith had 34 saves last year (and 14 the year before that) and if Atlanta had named him as the closer, he might even be viewed as a top 5 RP. That said, he's not the closer, and Melancon hasn't been nearly as terrible as the perception seems to be. Melancon is about to turn 35, though, and he missed half the season in both 2017 and 2018. If he gets hurt or slips up, Smith is likely to take over the closing duties and keep them.

13.07 Lance McCullers, SP, HOU

I need more SP, and I've always liked McCullers, who has put up a 3.67/1.27 line with 10.1 K/9 over his 4 seasons. He's coming off Tommy John surgery and hasn't broken 130 innings yet (though that was more because of the Astros' pitching depth than injury), but he seemed to be doing well in Spring Training and he should have a clear slot in the rotation this year.
 
96Graydog
      ID: 22461020
      Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 23:17
10.15 Gurriel, Lourdes Jr. - OF - TOR

An interesting talent who intrigues me, but at the same time this pick has significant risk. As he does not have many at bats under his belt, partially due to injuries. I jumped at him as nobody safe stood out to me and the top of the Toronto lineup looks like it has potential to score a lot of runs. A few steals helps too. Will need BA help not to hurt my OBP based on his 5% walk rate. Back when baseball was actually being played I read that he was taking balls at 1st which would add to his value if he ends up with eligibility there.

11.02 Kela, Keone - RP - PIT

Planned on going MI here but took a hard right turn when Kela was available and MI options appeared as if they will be available later. Gives me a 3rd locked in closer and a definite leg up in the category.
 
97KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 23:49
12.14 Jean Segura, SS, PHI
Boring pick. No upside. Could probably have gotten the production I'll get from Segura 2 or 3 rounds later, or even from the waiver wire if i got lucky. Offers a few steals, and should become eligible at 3B or 2B as well. So there's that. Would've strongly preferred Kolten Wong, but he didn't make it to me (mailedfoot is absolutely killing this draft, btw).
 
98KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 00:07
13.03 Mark Melancon, RP, ATL
Sitting on only one closer, and was a little surprised that Melancon was still on the board. He's not the best reliever on the Braves (Will Smith was selected in Round 12), so it's not the kind of job stability I'd prefer from a pick at this point in the draft. But maybe the plan is for Smith to be a high leverage shutdown type reliever, who saves the game in the 7th or 8th, and they'll let Melancon have the 9th and the meaningless "save." If he doesn't poop the bed, he could get 70% of the Braves' saves this year. Figured it was worth the gamble.

The opportunity costs seem to increase at this stage of the draft as the desirable talent diminishes. By going reliever, I risked losing an OBP/SLUG hitter that I liked. A lot of them went between this pick and my next (Canha, Calhoun, Yandy Diaz, and Brian Anderson) but thankfully not the one I wanted the most.
 
99mailedfoot
      ID: 597203018
      Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 07:33
12.11 Kolton Wong, 2B, STL
Wong fills my need for another MI; he slashed .361/.423 with 24 SB last year and I would be happy if he can repeat those kinds of numbers. Projection systems have him pegged for something like .345/.405 with 15 SB over 130 games. It looks like he will be hitting lead off so I’m hopeful this pick results in lots of SB.

13.06 Mark Canha, OF, OAK
Canha became a starter last year and mashed for .396/.517 over 126 games. His 2nd half numbers were even better so I am looking for more of the same this year. I’m reaching here based on his ADP but didn’t want to chance losing him before my next pick.
 
100I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 384502818
      Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 08:14
12.12 (188) J.D. Davis, 3B/OF, NYM
The experts seem to really like this guy as a “sleeper pick”. There’s a ton of red on his Baseball Savant page (eclipsing 90th percentile in most CATs), so it’s a question of how often the Mets will be able to play him. Last year, he was on my squad (picked up through Free Agency), and helped out a lot. Here’s hoping he gets the opportunity to help out once again. An interesting look at the pitch mix / outcomes that he faced… it really seemed like he figured out the off-speed / breaking pitches that were his weakness in 2018. Also happy about the position flexibility, it could end up coming in handy. Thoughts on the twelfth round: Approaching the 200th pick, not too much seems odd.
 
101Matt G
      ID: 45031313
      Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 11:41
12.13 Sean Manaea SP OAK While hurt most of 2019 Sean came back and had some great outings even started the WildCard game. I think Oakland is good this year and he will at least 12 wins, probably 9 K per 9in and he can keep the ERA and Whip in check. He will benefit from having Montas in the rotation all year as well. I really needed another Starter and he was the best of the bunch.

13.04 Eric Hosmer 1b SD 600 ABs, 20+ hrs and 90RBIS in a sneaky good SD lineup this could actually increase. if he's able to bring the OBP up this could be a steal. I also needed a CI and some power desperately.
 
102KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:13
14.14 Brandon Nimmo, OF, NYM
Going into this draft, I had 2 targets - Christian Yelich and Brandon Nimmo. Yelich made it to me at #3. Getting Nimmo was easy - just take him before anyone else does. I knew I was going to overpay, but I wanted to minimize my overpay as much as possible. Given the progression of this entirely predictable draft, and my picking near a turn, I decided that I had to take him 2-3 rounds early, and definitely 2-3 rounds before he was picked in Tout Wars Mixed or ranked by the rankings that so many RIBC managers are apparently using. With a bunch of 3rd and 4th OFs going off the board, I decided the time was now.

Why so high on Brandon Nimmo? In 2018, he hit 404/483 with 9 stolen bases. That's the upside I'm drafting at this spot. Sure, his 2019 numbers took a big dip, but he hurt his neck in mid-April and tried to play through it. When he came back in September fully healthy, he went 430/565 with 2 stolen bases in 26 games. For good measure, I checked his meaningless spring training stats, and he was at a meaningless 455/552 when the virus shut it down.

All in all, I feel like I am getting a 400 OBP, a bunch of runs from a lead off hitter, a handful of stolen bases, and the chance at a 500 SLG at pick 225. I can't see that high of an upside anywhere else on the board. Too bad the season might never get played.
 
103Graydog
      ID: 22461020
      Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 13:06
12.15 Smith, Will - C - LAD

I had no plans to take a 2nd catcher this early but I didn't find any bats that stood out for me as Khris Davis, Kolten Wong and J.D. Davis all fell from the top of my queue just before my pick. I really think the two Davis' could be great value here.

My general strategy allows for a much more flexible bench so I always shoot for having two catchers. I like my "2nd" catcher to play on the west coast so that I can easily roster them when my "1st" guy isn't playing.

Smith had a huge breakout last year right on par with his AAA numbers. I would expect some regression but still like his bat to carry this draft slot.

13.02 Lowe, Brandon - 2B - TB

Just like with Taking Smith with my last slot, I wasn't sure where to go here. Middle infield waiver wire basically doesn't exist in this format so I took another young guy who produced in a limited sample last year. Looks like he is projected to lead off.
 
104I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 384502818
      Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 13:28
13.05 (197) Salvador Perez, C, KC
I wasn’t in love with this pick. However, I felt like I could still be happy with the next tiers of OF/SP especially, so grabbed him approx. around his ADP. In 2018, he had 80 RBIs / 439 SLG. He seemed fully healthy in spring training already (coming back from a year off). The OBP (career 297) is not great, but that’s an issue with most players at his position. Currently projected to hit 6th, had been the #4 hitter two years ago, but the team has improved it’s hitters in the meantime. There was some talk in spring about him playing 1B as well, so the play-time might be higher than other Catchers. The extra eligibility wouldn’t hurt either. Thoughts on the thirteenth round: Some pics are starting to slide due to managers prioritizing other positions. A decent amount of “value” is still on the board.
 
105Uptown Bombers
      ID: 28219112
      Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 18:21
13.10 Marcus Stroman, SP NYM
Stroman feels like a safe pick in terms of his floor. At this point in his career I think we know what he brings to the fantasy table, so I am not counting on his increased K rate with the Mets being a real thing. But he takes the ball every 5 days, should keep his ERA under 4, and stands a good chance at W’s for what should be a decent Mets team. Oh yeah, he is a Met so I get to watch him very closely. LFGM!
 
106loki
      SuperDude
      ID: 4211201420
      Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 20:53
13.12 Yadier Molina, C, STL-Molina was one of the few catchers remaining who had the chance of getting significant at bats.
 
107loki
      SuperDude
      ID: 4211201420
      Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 11:02
14.05 Mike Minor, SP, TEX-The choices for a SP are getting fewer. Minor could pitch 200 innings and strikeout 200. Need to start to work on my corner infielders, but wanted to firm up my pitching 1st.
 
108Graydog
      ID: 22461020
      Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 13:29
14.15 Urshela, Gio - 3B - NYY

Came out of nowhere to be a waiver wire darling last year. Is it too much to ask for a repeat? Yes...

He was very lucky via his BABIP last year so I suspect even if he is the same type of hitter as last year his OBP will not be positive. Batted all over the lineup last year so that is hard to predict but the Yankees always score lots of runs so hopefully he can provide okay counting stat value.

15.02 Swanson, Dansby - SS - ATL

I think this could turn into a great value pick. Elite prospect who has shown steady growth each year - breakout at 26? I hope so.

I wanted a short stop here, really only considered Gregorius and went with upside at this point in the draft. This pick gives me at least 2 people at every infield spot which will hopefully allow me to avoid rostering (undrafted, undrafted, undrafted, etc) due to injury - You all know who I'm talking about!!!!
 
109mmikulka
      ID: 3225119
      Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 18:02
14.10 Justin Upton, OF, LAA

After averaging .338/.490 with 87 R, 94 RBI, and 10 SB from 2016-2018, Upton's 2019 was bad and filled with injury.

I'm expecting some degree of a bounceback: Upton seems to be fully recovered and his 2019 BABIP was 40 points lower than his previous worst (He hit more popups than normal, but his Hard Hit % was well above his career average).

Also, Upton will likely be batting directly after Trout/Rendon/Ohtani, so... his RBI totals should be decent.

15.07 Daniel Murphy, 1B, COL

In last year's draft, Murphy went in the 4th round (though he was still eligible at 2B). His low K rate and strong fly ball rate seemed like a perfect fit for Coors Field. However, Murphy had his worst OPS (still .780) since he was a Met.

Some of it was bad luck (his .307 BABIP was also the lowest since he was a Met, and his .263 road BABIP was 60 points below his career average), but at least as much was bad playing (his 15.5% K rate was well above his previous career worst of 13.6%). His monthly splits were also pretty strange last year: he had 3 months with an OPS of .857 or higher and the other 3 months with an OPS of .691 or lower.

How much blame goes to his early-season finger injury? How much blame goes to age-related decline? I don't know, but I'm expecting that OPS to bounce back over the .800 mark.

Murphy has great upside playing half his games at Coors Field and batting 5th behind Story/Blackmon/Arenado. Even just BABIP-regression-related improvement should be enough to make him a strong CI platoon starter for my team (at home, on the road vs. non-elite RHP).
 
110Uptown Bombers
      ID: 28219112
      Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 18:06
14.07 Ian Happ, OF CHC
I’m surprised by the number of OF options that I’d be content with at this stage of the draft. Most of the ones I like have been drafted later than this, so it feels like I can wait. I looked at CI options and felt the same way; lots of comparable players, no one sticking out too much. How about pitchers? Nope. Not much there has me excited at this pick. Catcher? Carson Kelly would have likely tempted me, but he just got drafted. So, I am back at OF, since I need 2 of them. There are “safe” choices and upside choices and I decide for upside. Happ offers an interesting combination of power and speed. I approached SB this year as a team effort, so Happ fits that profile. Shame he doesn’t get multi-positional eligibility on ESPN, but if he did maybe he wouldn’t be available.
 
111I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 384502818
      Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 18:37
14.12 (220) Andrew Heaney, SP, LAA
It’s been almost 100 picks since my last SP taken (because Luzardo really is one, even though he’s RP only eligible right now). I believe that my “rotation” currently stands pretty good, and I want to make sure it stays that way. Heaney’s got good “stuff” and plays in a decent park, with a good lineup behind him. The Angels had named him their opening day starter, and that’s a pretty good vote of confidence. I’ve owned him in previous years, and hope that he can stay healthy this year. Thoughts on the fourteenth round: Holt looks to be keeping with his “high upside” picks going with Puig.
 
112mailedfoot
      ID: 597203018
      Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 07:22
14.11 Carlos Martinez, SP, STL
Martinez will apparently be back in the Cardinal rotation this year after finishing last year as their closer. His track record makes him seem like a solid value here if he can stay healthy. I’m expecting a 3.50-4.00 ERA with about a 1.25 WHIP and 9 K/9. He is among the top of the remaining starters according to most of the experts’ lists. If things get crazy he could possibly end up back in the closer role and get me some saves.
15.06 C.J. Cron, 1B, DET
I would like to have two eligible 1B on my roster and Cron figures to have an everyday role with the Tigers. He had a pretty drastic platoon split last year, so I will focus on getting him in the lineup when he faces lefthanders (he was .385/.636 against them last year). I thought about adding to my pitching staff but ultimately decided 1B was the scarcer commodity. Also considered Murphy but questions about his playing time and health caused me to go with Cron.
 
113Jason
      ID: 52117113
      Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 09:37
1.15. Tatis jr., Fernando – SDG – SS
I always prefer the first or the last position in the draft or so because from theese positions can I handle the time difference between USA and Europe the best way. This year Holt got the 16th position so the 15th was the closest to the optimal for me.
Tatis: He was my 20th pick last year and played a very important role to the succesful season . When I had chosen him in 2019 he was named as a AAA player at the beginning of the season, but immediately stepped up to major league and brought the statistics. Because of injuries he had played only 84 games, but this was enough to be a top 100 players last year.
This year he was the 14th int he Yahoo rank, and was aviable so I decided to go with him again, I hope he will avoid the ijnjury this year and get home 30+ HR and steals (closer to 40) with high percentages.
 
114Jason
      ID: 52117113
      Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 09:38
2.02. Rendon, Anthony – LAA – 3B
I hoped Arenado will be available for this round, but It was a very slight hope.. and really, Holt picked up him.
The B plan was Rendon or Devers. Finally the highest percentages took my hand towards Rendon. Last year Rendon was an absolute surprise for me, his phenomenal production was the 7th best in the league rank. Despite the fact that he changed to LAA I hope he can repeat this production this year again.
 
115Matt G
      ID: 45031313
      Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 10:05
14.13 Kevin Newman 2B/SS Pit Surprised he was still available at this pick, maybe I'm a bit higher on him than most. 12 HR and 16SB in 493 ABs last year. He could easily steal 20+ bases and that's what I needed at this slot. The 2 position flexibility helps and he won't hurt OBP and SLG should be average. If he's able to steal a few more bases he could generate a few more runs.

15.04 Sam Hilliard OF COL Typically I try to avoid Colorado players just because the splits can be extreme but I like Hilliard a lot this year. Another speed and power guy, wish he stole more but definitely a candidate for 30 HRs and 15 SBs, I also needed an OF here and didn't like anyone else.
 
116I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 384502818
      Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 10:30
15.05 (229) Avisail Garcia, OF, MIL
A bit of a dart throw, but (if healthy) one that seems to have a decent floor. He’s now playing in Miller Park, and that tends to be a good thing for players who barrel the ball well, which he seems to have consistently done now for a couple years. Garcia is surprisingly fast (given his build), and he got the green-light last year, and picked up 10SBs. Maybe he can get 6-8 this year? He’s competing for playing time though, so we’ll see how the plate appearances go. Thoughts on the fifthteenth round: Lot’s of quality SPs... Bundy, Musgrove, Folty went off here, and scratched off my target list.
 
117RJ
      ID: 46212229
      Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 12:33
12.16 Kyle Hendricks, SP, CHC
He’s been a reliable and consistent source of ratios with modest wins and Ks. It should be noted that he was taken in 2019 in RIBC at pick 8.11 and nothing tells me his stuff has dropped off that much. He’s not flashy but will get you quality innings.

13.01 Mallex Smith, OF, SEA
Again I have to note that he was taken at 9.15 last season and lead the majors in ‘19 with 46 total. Bargain steals and I have the players in place to offset the poor ratios somewhat. I see him as a modern day Billy Hamilton with some upside.
 
118maspero
      ID: 38258615
      Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 17:50
7.09 Corey Kluber, SP, TEX
Kluber is a solid pitcher with a string of great seasons interrupted by an injury year. The change of team is a question mark, but the new stadium in Arlington, a dome that will be closed for much of the dog days, could not favor hitting that much. And by the way, he famous for his bad Aprils and this year he won’t pitch in April…
8.08 Carlos Carrasco, SP, CLE
I already had two SPs, but I was tempted to round my staff with a solid pitcher, coming off three very good years, and an injury marred season. After the delay of the start of the season, the injury of Carrasco was not a concern anymore, since he will be ready to pitch when (if ?) the season begins.
9.09 Archie Bradley, RP, ARI
After the “missed” Osuna pick, and needing saves, I decided to go for Bradley, a pitcher that finally hinted the last two months of last season at the capabilities many have thought he possessed with 14 saves. This season enters as the closer, I hope he will not squander this opportunity.
10.08 Craig Kimbrel, RP, CHC
After Bradley pick in the previous round, but still needing saves, I laid my eyes on Kimbrel, choosing to discard last season’s numbers due to his late start and to believe in the 31 or more saves the 8 previous years.
 
119Uptown Bombers
      ID: 28219112
      Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 18:10
15.10 Ryan Pressly, RP, HOU
Early for a set-up man and there are other presumed closers on the board but Pressly is my handcuff to Osuna and the main objective of the pick was to help ratios and K’s, not saves. Still hurt to see Cron, Murphy and Arraez all get drafted just before me. I would have likely taken one of them. Still a lot of value in OF. Starting to see value for SP again, but when I drafted Osuna, I made drafting Pressly a goal.
 
120maspero
      ID: 38258615
      Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 19:14
11.09 Luke Voit, 1B, NYY
Great start of last season for Voit, then the injury derailed the second part. But his OBP is not to be overlooked in a lineup that always find ways to score runs.
12.08 Shin-Soo Choo, OF, TEX
I have always been a fan of Choo, a cheap but useful player in every category, mostly OBP and the elusive (for me) Run category. Really happy to have snatched him so low.
13.09 Cesar Hernandez, 2B, CLE
Finally I addressed the 2B position, with a player who had a bit of a down year last season, but has been solid before in Philly, and finds himself in a good lineup in Cleveland with no threat for playing time.
14.08 Daniel Hudson, RP, WAS
That was maybe a bit of a reach, but finding saves has always given me headaches. So I picked Hudson, wondering: if Washington trusted him to close in the WS, why should they revert to some other guy? And Doolittle tends to get hit by the injury bug …. 
 
121KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 01:49
15.03 Dylan Bundy, SP, LAA
There's nothing in Bundy's career statistics that would warrant picking him so high. But several dudes who write about imaginary baseball for a living seem to like him this year. A change of scenery (a better hitter's park), a top defense behind him (please put Pujols at DH or on the bench), and a better team could all add up to a career year. I'll confess to peeking at his spring training stats, and they looked pretty good. And being good in spring training is not something Bundy normally does. There were a few "better" options still on the board, but I'm putting my chips on the 27-year-old former top draft pick. I'm not expecting any Cy Young votes, just a solid SP3 from my SP4.

Alternative was backing up Encarnacion with Cron or Murphy.
 
122slizz
      ID: 21261712
      Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 15:34
13.13, Diaz, Yandy, 1B/3B, TB - Yandy Diaz has always possessed excellent power, posting a hard hit % above 44% the past 3 seasons as per savant.  His issues have been launch angle and health.  Much like Christian Yelich, he has steadily improved the launch angle year over year.

-Yelich went from 0% launch angle in 2016, to 5% during his MVP campaign, and 10% in 2020 when he should've won MVP. 

-Yandy had a negative launch angle in 2017, to 5% 2018, parts of 2019 at 10%, got figured out midway through the season, and finished strong.

Comparing Yelich and Yandy's 2019 seasons:

Yelich
Hard Hit - 49%
Avg. Exit Velocity (EV) - 93.1mph
Line Drive / Fly Ball EV - 96.7mph
Pulled FB% - 21.6%

Yandy  
Hard Hit - 46.4%
Avg. Exit Velocity (EV) - 91.7mph
Line Drive / Fly Ball EV - 97.0 mph
Pulled FB% - 20%

Sure, it's a reach to say he'll be Yelich 2.0.  That said, I'm not looking for him to be Yelich 2.0.  If he can be 90% of what Yelich is, I'll be ecstatic getting that in the 13th round.  Under the hood...the signs point to the ability to do so.

14.04 - Mazara, Nomar, OF, CHW - Call this a homer pick.  I only had 3 OF and realized that my power #'s were low.  I originally planned on going Dansby Swanson to complete my infield and was looking at Pollock in the later rounds.  Looking over the app and his ADP value, I figured nobody would be going Swanson and Mazara provided my squad with much-needed power.  Additionally, he fills a need (OF4), has an everyday job in LF for the Sox, and an ADP significantly higher than Swanson...(more on that later).  That said, as a white sox fan and someone who has been a bull on Mazara since I prospected him, and his Barrel #'s have been encouraging.  His barrel rate was identical to Mike Moustakas...I think he should finally hit 30 HR as long as he doesn't get injured again.

15.13 - Mitch Keller, SP, PIT - Pretty much wanted Keller in every league.  Looking back, the Boyd pick was my worst one of my draft.  There are still a handful of good pitchers left that taking Boyd cost me some great hitters.  Oh well...roll with it and move on.  Keller was the unluckiest pitcher in all of baseball in 2020 with a BABIP of .475!  Next worst BABIP was .61 lower.  Wow.  Knowing Fosten was in the league (Mets and Pirates are held in high regard by him), there is always a chance he'll reach on him.  So there is a metric called ACES which describes pitchers raw stuff / potential.  The top 10 ACES / ACES +:

#1 Sonny Gray (damn you, loki)
#2 Cole
#3 Buehler
#4 deGrom
#5 Wheeler
#6 Glasnow
#7 Clevinger
#8 Keller
#9 Sale
#10 Lance Lynn

On that list, everyone pretty much is a SP1 or SP2 except Keller.  I dk if Pittsburgh's defense is that bad or that he was simply unlucky...but I'm banking on a breakout from Keller as my 5th starter.

16.04 - Hunter Harvey, RP, BAL - Was surprised to see him still here with how this draft has gone.  Originally intended to go Diego Castillo and hedge Nick Anderson for the Tampa Bay closer spot. Castillo is a solid RP, shouldn't hurt my ratios, and would've given me insurance in the event Anderson stinks.  All signs point to Harvey as the Baltimore closer out the gate as Givens is who he is at this point.  Harvey features a 100mph fastball with solid secondary offerings, which gave him 11k in 6.2 IP in 2019.  Heres to hoping he can continue that trend and get me some garbage saves to pair with Anderson.

17.13 - Wily Adames, SS, TB - Needed a MI.  Didn't get Swanson.  Adames was once a top prospect, has pretty much a clear path to everyday AB, and fills a need.  Its not who I wanted as my SS (Swanson), but its what I'm settling with.  Anytime you can start 3 TB bats in your lineup you have to do it ::facepalm:
 
123Uptown Bombers
      ID: 28219112
      Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 19:31
16.07 David Peralta, OF, ARI
Back in my round 14 rationale, I mentioned considering “safe” OF choices. Upton was drafted soon after and Peralta was another I had my eye on. Truth is, I still see lots of good OF value but just figured if I was that close to taking Peralta 2 rounds ago, I should probably just take him now. In hindsight, I wish I had taken UNDRAFTED or another RP. Not that I don’t think Peralta is a good value. He has put up useful stats for years and was having a solid 2019 until an injury slowed him down. As a rotational OF, I can use him in favorable matchups.
 
124loki
      SuperDude
      ID: 4211201420
      Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 19:47
16.05 Tommy La Stella, 3B, LAA-Another position pick for my 2nd corner IF. He will help or at least not hurt my ratios, and he is also eligible at 2nd base.

I have been playing RIBC and RIFC since the beginning which I believe was 1998. I think that was my 1st time-out!!
 
125I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 384502818
      Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 21:07
16.12 (252) Trent Grisham, OF, SD
A power/speed upside pick. Grisham had been destroying minor league pitching for the last couple years, and looks to have locked in the starting CF job in San Diego. Too bad he didn’t he didn’t get to stay in Miller park, but seems like a decent value. I would have loved to be grabbing pitchers here, but still feel like my hitting needs some improvement. Thoughts on the sixteenth round: Interesting to see Hunter Harvey go off before Mychal Givens. That’s the second time in this draft that the setup guy went before the closer (Will Smith > Mark Melancon).
 
126I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 384502818
      Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 22:54
17.05 (261) Caleb Smith, SP, MIA
Injuries derailed what was a spectacular start to 2019: 1st half (72 innings), 31% K rate, 23.7% K-BB, 1.01 WHIP, 3.50 ERA. Then maybe he came back too quickly, and suddenly wasn’t getting the whiffs, and was giving up the long-ball too much. This felt like one of the safer investments into the rotation (not a consensus among experts though). Thoughts on the seventeenth round: I looked hard at Josh James for this pick, but I felt that if he didn’t get his shot in the rotation, that I wouldn’t be happy with the investment.
 
127KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 00:12
16.14 Eric Thames, 1B, WAS
If history is any guide, from here on out I will pick, at the most, 3 players who will contribute all year long to my team. That's it. Last year it was zero - besides Soler in round 17 (who I foolishly dropped sometime in late April), all my 16-25 picks were garbage or not worth a roster slot when the injuries piled up. So my expectations for the rest of the draft are low. Form here on out, I'll try to combine some platoon plays with a few rolls of the dice.

Thames is a platoon play. He'll be the strong side at 1B for the Nationals, hitting behind some pretty good players. If he can maintain a 330/470 line, I'll be happy getting 5 starts a week out of him.

Didn't get to me: Mitch Keller
Also considered: [undrafted] and M. Givens
Hoped would make it back to me: Pomeranz
 
128KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 00:20
17.03 Gregory Polanco, OF, PIT
Didn't really want to pick another OF here, as there's a bunch of guys still on the board who fall in one big giant tier of "maybe this year?" kind of players. But the rest of the board looked even worse. So I put on my rose-tinted glasses, and saw a repeat of 2018 Polanco (340/499 with a handful of steals). Probably not, but it's possible. He's only 28, not coming off shoulder surgery, and hitting 3rd or 5th in the lineup should provide decent counting stats.

DIdn't get to me: Odor, but I would've chickened out
Also considered: Goodrum (breakout potential + positional flex), Pomeranz, Haniger (but what else will break between now and June?)
Hoped would make it back to me: Pomeranz, Diego Castillo
 
129mmikulka
      ID: 3225119
      Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 00:29
16.10 Matt Carpenter, 3B, STL

With Joey Votto, David Price, Justin Upton, and Daniel Murphy already on my team, I'm leaning pretty heavily into the "deeply discounted 34-year-old rebound candidate" strategy. Now I can add Carpenter to that group.

Carpenter's 2018 was 677 PA of .374/.523 with 111 R and 81 RBI, which led to him being a 3rd round pick in last year's draft. An awful .334/.392 season ensued, and now here he is in the late 16th round.

He averaged .374/.496 with 96 R and 76 RBI from 2015-2018. Carpenter probably won't be that good anymore, but he still has that as his upside and I'm expecting a sizable rebound (with a high OBP due to his excellent 13.3% career walk rate).

17.07 Wade Davis, RP, COL

Hey - in the 17th round, a closer is a closer.

After putting up a silly 8.65/1.88 over 42.2 IP last year, it's incredible that Wade Davis is the unquestioned closer going into the season, but here we are.

One reason Davis might still have the job is that his 6 previous seasons as a reliever were quite excellent: before last season's debacle, he averaged 2.10/1.00 with 11.4 K/9. In fact, Davis had been drafted as a top 14 RP in RIBC each of the past 4 years (last year, he went slightly ahead of Josh Hader).

None of the projections think Wade Davis will be very good, and I agree, because he pitches in Colorado... but last year is so out of line with every other season in his career. He seems to have identified the cause (a drifting finger gave him unwanted break on his pitches, leading to his awful 6.12 BB/9), so hopefully he'll get back to something like the 4.13/1.06 line (with 43 saves) that he put up during his previous season with Colorado.

If not, he'll be an easy drop as soon as he loses the closer role.
 
130beastiemiked
      ID: 481162721
      Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 00:56
3.06 Bo Bichette, SS, TOR

Too early? Probably but I really wanted him. Hitting atop the Blue Jays order will generate a lot of runs. He's got potential to contribute in every category. Was between him and Albies before Albies was taken right before me. Also looked at guys like Meadows, Alvarez, and Hiura here.

4.06 Yoan Moncada, 3b, CHW

Would be a do over if I could. Almost pulled the trigger on Verlander here as the news for the virus was starting to break and a delay was looking inevitable. Wish I would've in hindsight. I went with Moncada as I feel he could steal 40 stolen bases and people wouldn't be surprised. He has potential to be a 1st round player if he keeps progressing.

5.11 Lucas Giolito, SP, CHW

Giolito was one of the last pitchers I really wanted. He has elite k potential and has the pedigree to be a top 10 starter. He was horrible in 2018 but turned it around in 2019 after a slow start. High reward high risk pick but his k's provide a nice safety net. REALLY wanted to take Vlad here. He slipped super far and if I knew I could've gotten Moncada or Vlad in round 5 I would've never taken Yoan in round 4. 2 3b at this point just wasn't practical so decided to let someone else enjoy the Vlad ride.

6.06 Aaron Judge, OF, NYY

My first coronavirus pick. Judge slipped because he's hurt. His return data was unknown and who really knows when he would've been back if they started the full season on time. I saw the writing on the wall and figured we aren't getting baseball until at least Mid May and probably more like later. Judge should be recovered by then. He was 1st round potential but is always a high injury risk with his huge body. Thought about a closer here but none of them looked that great. All of them are either not that great or have question marks. Bauer and Berrios were also tempting.

7.11 Yasmani Grandal, C, CHW

A guy I definitley didn't target. I hate picking catchers early. Grandal is a high walk guy that plays well in this league. Since he's moving to the AL I think he'll play even more this year. Hoping for a repeat of last years numbers and a few more at bats.

 
131mailedfoot
      ID: 597203018
      Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 06:59
16.11 Omar Narvaez, C, MIL
I went into this pick thinking I would take a pitcher but just wasn’t thrilled about any of the options. Still needing a catcher, Narvaez caught my attention. He went .353/.460 over 132 games last year in Seattle. Projections are that his power numbers will regress but he is moving to a better hitting environment in Milwaukee and this pick fills an open roster position.

17.06 Mychal Givens, RP, BAL
It’s not clear to me who the closer will be in Baltimore, but Givens would seem to be in the mix. He was probably a little unlucky last year (especially with the home run ball) and I’m hoping he can secure the job and get me some saves without damaging my ratios.
 
132Matt G
      ID: 45031313
      Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 08:20
16.13 Michael Chavis 1B,2b, BOS I needed a CI and I needed some power, Runs and RBIs, comes with position flexibility that allows me to get creative later. He should be slotted for an everyday role between 2B and 1B and hoping he can get 500 ABs

17.04 Corey Dickerson, OF, MIA He'll hit 3rd behind two high OBP guys with speed. Could easily hit .300 with an OBP over .350 and slug .500+. He'll slot in as a 5th OF/UTIL guy for me and I'll hope he drives in 90+ runs.
 
133RJ
      ID: 21216248
      Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 11:11
14.16 Jake Odorizzi, SP, MIN
A reliable source of wins and dependable ratios, Odorizzi should meet or exceed expectations as my SP4. Minnesota is good this year and should keep him in the hunt for those Ws. He gets pretty decent Ks too.

15.01 Starlin Castro, 3B, WAS
More of a panic pick as I realized I only had DJ to play at third. Starlin played all 162 GP last year and showed solid pop on Miami. He is now in a much better Washington lineup. While it seems like Starlin has been around forever he only just turned 30 today. As a bonus Starlin can also fill in at second. His OBP leaves something to be desired but the SLG and counting stats are there.
 
134Graydog
      ID: 22461020
      Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 12:12
16.15 Tsutsugo, Yoshitomo - OF - TB

I generally shy away from imports like this in their first year but went for Tsutsugo as I liked his stats profile from Japan. Most projection systems see him as a platoon bat for the Rays but that is okay with me at this point in the draft. He is only DH'd the last two years but ESPN gave him outfield eligibility which is nice. I hope that his keen eye and small parks in the AL east give him a smooth transition. An OBP of 345 and SLG of 470 does not seem like dreaming.

17.02 Knebel, Corey - RP - MIL

I see lots of upside with this pick. He was lights out in 17, very good in 18 and Tommy John surgery for 19. He will obviously be behind Hader on the Brewers depth chart but I think is likely to be next in line for rogue saves and is on a one year deal so could be moved to a contender in need of late inning help. These are upside hopes, I primarily took him for useful ratios.
 
135loki
      SuperDude
      ID: 4211201420
      Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 12:46
17.12 Yoenis Cespedes, OF, NYM-If there is baseball this year, the season will be very delayed giving Cespedes’ ankle more time to heal and for Cespedes to get into playing shape. Then I will see if he has anything left. Worth a gamble in the 17th round.
 
136Uptown Bombers
      ID: 28219112
      Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 19:56
17.10 Diego Castillo, RP, TB
Last year, he was used as an opener, a set-up man, and a closer, all while providing useful ratios and a high K/9. Hoping for more of the same. I’ve been thinking of AJ Puk for a few rounds now but have been scared off by his shoulder injury. Most of the remaining SP are projected to have higher than desirable ERA/WHIP (Puk included) so I figured a combination of Castillo and one of them would be a good solution. That means I can afford to wait on SP to pair up with him. I choose Castillo over other RP because of Saves potential.

Mentioned UNDRAFTED (Renato Nunez) in my last rationale. Still like his value in this round, but my spreadsheet likes my offense better than pitching so decided to pass on him again.
 
137holt
      ID: 491153264
      Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 20:15
11.16 Pederson, Joc 1B LAA

You would think that in this offense-oriented age of baseball there would be more great-hitting 1st basemen in the league. The pickings were starting to become pretty slim so I figured I better take a shot on one. Pederson went .249 .339 .538 last year in 514 PA. Those numbers seem achievable again. The next 1B's taken were Hosmer, Cron, Murphy so it's clear how quickly things were dropping off at this position. Pederson's OF eligibility is a nice plus too, considering that I have Alvarez tying up the Util slot.


12.01 Andrus, Elvis SS TEX

Same as with my Joc Pederson pick, I still needed someone at SS and the palatable options are rapidly getting close to zero. Actually, they already got to zero. Andrus has never been the kind of player I roster and I'm not proud of this pick. His .313 obp and .393 slg last year are probably about what I should expect this year. Not cool. All of his value is wrapped up in how many SB's he'll provide. He had 31 last year, and my team desperately needs more steals, so...


13.16 Tucker, Kyle OF HOU Mar 19,

Definitely going to need more than one OF on my roster and I've knocked out my other positional needs other than catcher. I don't feel like these need to be safe picks at this point. I can always find useful OF's to pick up during the season so I'm just taking shots on guys who can out-perform their draft position here. Tucker is a legit 30-30 threat and showed that he can run and hit in the majors (.857 OPS and 5 steals in 67 AB last year). He has nothing left to prove in the minors, but still only 23 years old. May even get 1B eligibility at some point.


14.01 Puig, Yasiel OF CLE

We all know who Puig is. Decent OPS and enough speed to help you out, but there's always something going on with him. I feel like everyone is afraid that he'll infect their fantasy team with his Puiginess. He'll eventually sign a contract I guess (Giants maybe). Kind of sad to see Nimmo go later in the round. I've had him the past couple seasons and think highly of him but last year was difficult. I would have liked to have drafted him in the later rounds but with the issues he had with his neck and the damage he inflicted to my team last year he wasn't on my radar in rd 14.

There is no Ramses in MLB so Yasiel will have to do.

I am singing at the party,
I am singing it's my turn to sing, at the party.
Everyone is dancing, happy, party,
But Yasiel is not dancing, he does not dance at the parties.
Yasiel number one, he knows the secrets of desire,
RAPAPAPAPILIAPUPALIAPUPPA
Yasiel is the one, he puts the people all on fire,
RAPAPAPAPILIAPUPALIAPUPPA
Yasiel... *AHHHH!*


15.16 Kintzler, Brandon RP MIA

I only have Workman so far for saves, and as of now Kintzler appears to be the guy in Miami. May as well throw a dart in rd 15. Chasing saves seems to get crazier every year, like some wacky scavenger hunt movie from the 80's. As valuable as the saves are, you'd think that you should be investing draft picks in them, but every damn year I see my supposedly solid Closer picks not working out. So this year, for me, very light investment during the draft. Perhaps I'll improve through a trade or free agent pickup.


16.01 Weaver, Luke SP ARI

There were a lot of ways I could go here, but the news that Sale was going to have TJ surgery just dropped, so I figured why not try to replace those innings here. Hopefully he can continue from where he left off last year: 2.94, 1.07, 9.7 K/9. I was a big fan of his when he was with the Cardinals but something weird happened and he sucked in 2018. Anyway, he's only 25 yrs old and I think he's a good pitcher. His ADP was a little deflated due to everyone saying his innings would be monitored, but with a late start to the season the innings issue isn't such a big deal.


17.16 Lucchesi, Joey SP SDG

Just though Lucchesi was the best player available here. An ERA around 4, whip around 1.20, 9K/9 seem like a solid prediction, with some potential upside to that. Puk and McKay were the other pitching options I looked at here. Puk was taken by Guru right after but McKay made it back to me.


18.01 273 Pollock, A.j. OF LAD

Again, thought he was best player available. I remember a few years ago drafting this knucklehead in the 1st round and then losing him for the season BEFORE THE SEASON EVEN STARTED. Those days of his round 1 talent are long over but this dude still owes me. If he can perform like someone who is drafted in the first 10 rounds then all is forgiven. .800 OPS and 12 steals don't seem like a stretch, and the Dodgers lineup should be good for his R/RBI production. Hays and Gardner were also on my OF radar and both went soon after. Passed on Andujar because I already have Y Alvarez clogging that Util slot.

 
138Uptown Bombers
      ID: 28219112
      Wed, Mar 25, 2020, 05:43
18.07 Renato Nunez, 1B, BAL
Not passing on UNDRAFTED a second time, especially with Puk off the board. I’ve had Nunez added to my queue for some time and have been targeting him as my CI. The other drafts show me that he has lasted longer than this, but one time he was drafted in round 18, so I decide to pull the trigger. My spreadsheet has Nunez with the highest projected counting stats of the available CI hitters. His major downside is OBP but at this point in the draft every player has warts. He is the 3rd BAL offensive player drafted so far, with the 2nd just drafted 5 picks before. Just because the Orioles stink doesn’t mean they don’t produce fantasy stats though.
 
139Matt G
      ID: 45031313
      Wed, Mar 25, 2020, 12:45
18.13 Sandy Alcantara SP MIA I went with hitters in my last 5 picks, I feel very confident in my pitchers so far, I should be great in ERA and WHIP, my counting stats could use a little boost. The K Rate could increase. In a full season plan for 200 innings and 170+ Ks, his second half last year was spectacular and if the marlins improve at all he is in line for double digit wins. He has some signs of a breakout and I'm hoping this is the year. Being that I feel confident in my pitching already, Alcantara is a gamble that could pay off in a stream situation which I always end up doing anyhow.
 
140I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 384502818
      Wed, Mar 25, 2020, 12:47
18.12 (284) Justin Smoak, 1B, MIL
A bench pick to back-up for CI/UTIL. Smoak has an elite walk rate, and is coming off a really odd season where he was nowhere close to his x-Stats. Another bat that I look forward to seeing how he’ll do at Miller Park. Hoping for a come-back season. Thoughts on the eighteenth round: Really liked these picks (Austin Hayes, Josh James, Alex Wood).
 
142KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Wed, Mar 25, 2020, 13:05
18.14 Ross Stripling, SP, LAD
I arrived at this pick after addressing a series of "if" and "only if" statements:
Only if there is a baseball season this year does it make sense to draft anyone in this round.
If it is round 18, then the person I'm drafting is more likely than not to end up contributing very little to my team, and it thus makes sense to lean on upside plays.
If there is a baseball season, then I want talented players on my team.
If there is a baseball season, MLB may end up squeezing more games into a typical month of play.
If MLB squeezes more games in to a typical month (such as by having more double-headers), teams will need more than 5 starters on a regular basis.
If teams need more than 5 starters, then quality swing men increase in value.
If the Dodgers plan on having a rotation that includes Kershaw, Price, and Wood, they will definitely need a sixth starter to fill in for those guys when they are injured.

As I see it, Ross Stripling is a talented swing man for the Dodgers whose upside is making 10+ starts for a first place team with SP3 ratios.
 
143mmikulka
      ID: 3225119
      Wed, Mar 25, 2020, 15:57
18.10 Joshua James, RP, HOU

I'd been considering Josh James for a few rounds but still debated this pick for a while because of the uncertainty regarding whether or not he'll start the year in the rotation. Assuming that Verlander is back by the eventual start of the season, James and a few others are stuck competing for the 5th starter role, and it feels like a 50/50 shot.

It's late enough in the draft that I'll take the chance because James has a lot of upside and fits the mold of the type of SP I'm trying to roster at this point.

Hopefully he'll begin the year as the 5th starter and perform well enough to stay there, but at worst, he should be a swingman (and then his K rate would likely be closer to the 14.7 K/9 he put up in relief last year than the 11-12 K/9 in most of his projections).

19.07 Dellin Betances, RP, NYM

With no players of particular interest among the low-ADP options, I decided that I would just take Jesse Winker really early even if it probably wasn't necessary.

My pick was #295, and Winker went at 337 and 364 in the AAAs.

62 OF had been drafted at this point: Winker was drafted as OF #76 and OF #91 in the AAAs.

mailedfoot, the only manager remaining before my pick, already had 5 OF-eligible players.

I considered not even adding a 2nd player to my queue before going to bed but threw in Betances just to be safe. When I woke up and saw I had drafted Betances, my first thought was that either I accidentally put them in the wrong order or there was a draftime error. I still can't believe that mailedfoot took Winker there, but that's RIBC for you. To paraphrase Billy Joel,

"missed out on Winker now you're stuck debating Nick Solak-ak-ak-ak / you oughta know by now"

Last year was not particularly healthy for Betances. He missed the first 2/3 of the season, finally got into a game, struck both batters out, and then tore his Achilles, missing the rest of the season. The lone bright spot is that his -2.79 FIP and xFIP might be the best in MLB history.

Betances' career line is a ridiculous 2.36/1.04 with 14.6 K/9. A return to anything close to that would be immense value. Steamer is more reserved, projecting 3.03/1.15 and 12.9 K/9, which I would still be happy with.

Last year Edwin Diaz had a 5.59/1.38 line, and while his sky-high BABIP and HR/9 makes it seem like bad luck, he had the 3rd-highest Hard Hit% in the MLB (48.1%), so if the ball is as juicy as it was last year, there's a decent chance Betances could end up closing.
 
144Graydog
      ID: 22461020
      Wed, Mar 25, 2020, 19:11
18.15 Teoscar Hernandez - OF - TOR

Has career marks of 304 and 476 for OBP and SLG over more than 1000 at bats. That is likely who he is. Statcast loves his power so maybe he can find the barrel a bit more or get hot over a short season for me. For now he is an extra bat to maybe get in the lineup in good match-ups or when on a heater.

19.02 Britton, Zack - RP - NYY

Drafted for ratio stats, hopefully can keep the walks down to keep WHIP down.
 
145KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Wed, Mar 25, 2020, 19:28
19.03 Howie Kendrick, 1B/2B, WAS
The other part of the Nationals 1B platoon, so on any given day I should have either Thames or Kendrick playing. Kendrick has defied age, and put up some ridiculous numbers month after month last year in his limited playing time (outside of July, his lowest OPS for any month last year was .912). I'll gladly take 3-4 games a week of 340/475 production, with positional flexibility as a bonus.

Curiosity of this draft - last year in RIBC, not a single team drafted two catchers, and going into round 25, there were 5 teams who didn't yet have a catcher, including the eventual league champ. This year, by the first pick of Round 21, four different teams have 2 catchers (2 returning managers, 2 newly promoted). I don't know that I've ever seen the two-catcher approach pay off. Rarely is a C2 better than the options at the DH slot. Unless the catchers are on the same team, I don't know how much it helps you maximize games played at catcher. And with fewer total games to be played this year, my math tells me that the gap between the middle and the bottom of the catcher ranks will be reduced.
 
146I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 384502818
      Wed, Mar 25, 2020, 19:37
19.05 (293) Jonathan Schoop, 2B, DET
This was a hard pick. I knew coming into the draft that 2B wasn’t overly deep, and I should have prioritized it in the early rounds (Maybe Ketel instead of Starling in the 3rd?), but considering the price I can’t complain. It wasn’t so long ago that I Schoop was going in the 5th/6th round. It’s true that he’s not playing in Camden Yards anymore, but he’s still projected to hit 5th in an AL lineup. That should bring decent counting stats (minus SBs). Thoughts on the nineteenth round: Overall, pretty solid drafting in this round. Nothing that had me scratching my head too much… considering we are around the 300 pick mark, that seems pretty good.
 
147mailedfoot
      ID: 597203018
      Wed, Mar 25, 2020, 19:40
18.11 Alex Wood, SP, LAD
Wood is slated to be part of the Dodgers’ rotation and began spring training with an uptick in velocity. If healthy, he should provide solid stats across the board and have plenty of chances at wins pitching in front of the Dodgers lineup.

19.06 Jesse Winker, OF, CIN
Winker is projected for something like .370/.460 and will be hitting in a decent lineup so should get his share of counting stats. The problem is that the Reds outfield is crowded and everyday playing time is not guaranteed. Hopefully, I will have enough lineup flexibility to take advantage when he does play.
 
148Uptown Bombers
      ID: 28219112
      Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 05:08
19.10 Tony Watson, RP, SFO
Dart throw at Saves. Was the presumed closer heading into the spring before some shoulder tightness. Last articles I read were optimistic that the injury was not serious. The delay to the season allows him to recover and hopefully reclaim his status as option #1 for saves.
 
149Matt G
      ID: 45031313
      Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 08:55
19.04 Mauricio Dubon 2B, SF There's been talk about him playing 2B a lot, and CF a lot and some SS as well, they are finding ways to get him into the lineup. I'm pretty high on Dubon and he's a guy I've reached for in a few drafts. With enough ABs I believe he is a 20/20 guy. His OBP could be a bit better but he helps me in steals and runs for now and won't kill my SLG. Plus with eventual position flexibility I can move him around.
 
150loki
      SuperDude
      ID: 4211201420
      Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 10:58
19.12 Danny Jansen, C, TOR-He had been having a great spring, and RotoWire predicts a possible breakout season, so why not at 19.12?
 
151loki
      SuperDude
      ID: 4211201420
      Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 15:31
20.05 Steven Matz, SP, NYM-I have always liked Matz. In fact when he and Syndergaard came up at the same time, I liked Matz more despite all the hype that the latter was getting. He is often injured, but if he stays healthy, he should do well. He also was having a good spring training.
 
152loki
      SuperDude
      ID: 4211201420
      Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 19:06
Sorry about missing pick again. A lot going on in NY/NJ.
 
153Uptown Bombers
      ID: 28219112
      Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 20:19
20.07 Yonny Chirinos, SP, TB
Shout out to Slizz for drafting Wil Myers. 4 of the last 5 years, I have drafted him in my respective RIBC league. Sometimes it worked out, sometimes it didn’t. Heading into this year, I promised myself I wouldn’t do it again. But this late in the draft Wil Myers was starting to tempt me again. He was calling to me like the One Ring called to Gollum….my Myers, my precious….Glad to have him off the table.

As for Chirinos, I wanted to add some more quality pitching stats. Last year’s ratios were pretty good even if his K rate is lower than preferred.
 
154mmikulka
      ID: 3225119
      Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 22:28
20.10 Domingo Santana, OF, CLE

Santana has been a tolerable back-end OF starter, averaging .343/.453 with fairly good R/RBI rates and a few SB sprinkled in.

He has also shown flashes of upside: last year he had an .850 OPS before getting hurt. He had an .876 OPS and 15 SB in 2017, his only fully-healthy season. He has power and an excellent walk rate. He's somehow only 27 years old.

Of course, the injuries are an issue, and likely part of why most projections had him at 400-500 PA (prior to the COVID-19 delays). Hopefully being DH will help him stay healthy.


21.07 Mike Yastrzemski, OF, SF

Yastrzemski came out of nowhere last year (as much as the grandson of a Hall-of-Famer can come out of nowhere) to put up an .852 OPS. He's slated to be a full-time starter and bat either leadoff or 5th (weird pairing of options). None of the projections I look at have his OPS any higher than .763 this year, but I disagree.

Do I have any solid reasoning/stats to back up this disagreement? No, not really. It's the 21st round and I'm short on OF and I'm just doing a lot of hoping at this point.

Maybe his power increase last year was legitimate!
Maybe something clicked when he got traded from the Orioles system to the Giants system, allowing him to finally live up to his full potential!

Probably not, but for now, let me hope!
 
155Graydog
      ID: 22461020
      Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 23:54
20.15 Pearson, Nate - SP - TOR

The first starter that I have drafted in this format in several years. I see value here due to the shortened season I expect he will likely be with the Jays opening day or shortly after. Most articles I read predict him to be their number 2 starter right away. Ideally for me he starts hot and I trade him as I don't plan on competing in wins or k's.

I really wanted Nick Solak here, I think that was a great pick in this round by Kemics.

21.02 Shaw, Travis - 1B - TOR

I wanted some depth at CI, hopefully he can provide this. He is 3B eligible and will gain 1B shortly into the season. He also has a pretty clear path to at bats in Toronto. This should give me time to see if he can rebound from an awful year in 2019 or if its time for him to hit the waiver wire.
 
156I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 384502818
      Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 00:02
20.12 (316) Luis Urias, 2B/SS, MIL
He fills my last hitter starter spot, and the position eligibility will mean he can potentially cover for either MI slot if necessary. At the moment, that only leaves Catcher, 3B, MI as the only positions that don’t currently have “contingencies” in place. Injuries happen, it’s part of the game, so best to be as ready as possible for when they come. Urias had a .998OPS last year in the minors. I’m hoping that the extra time off right now can allow him to win-out the starting SS job, and bring his bat into that great lineup. Based upon ADP, I may have reached a round or two, but I’m good with that. Thoughts on the twentieth round: Not too much to say, I hope that kemics know that Nick Solak is DH only in ESPN?
 
157KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 03:43
20.14 Anthony Desclafani, SP, CIN
Picks like these are always regrettable. What's the point? Unless he starts off on fire, he'll be dropped for someone else.
 
158KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 03:46
21.03 Dylan Cease, SP, CHI
The stat nerds love this guy. I've read things like "Blake Snell 2018" and "Lucas Giolito 2019". I don't see it. But at this point in the draft, it's better to swing big than waste a pick on someone like Anthony Desclafani.
 
159Matt G
      ID: 45031313
      Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 08:38
20.13 Nick Solak, DH, Tex Before Covid Solak was going to be the starting LF for Tex, but he's also expected to see time at 2B and 3B. The eligibility won't be there right away, but he's another one I'm higher on that most. He's above average on most tools could hit 20 hrs and steal 10 bases and once I can slide him into multiple positions he gains even more value but to start he will play every day.
 
160I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 384502818
      Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 08:46
21.05 (325) Garrett Richards, SP, SD
It’s hard to put a lot of faith in a Pitcher who doesn’t have triple digit IPs since 2015 (TJ in 2018); However he's looked good in his limited IPs this spring. Based upon ability / opportunity, having a great pitch mix, and the projected #2 Pitcher in SD, I think I can take the risk. Legitimate Ace Upside, Legitimate less than 100 IP (again) risk. Thoughts on the twenty-first round: Holt was forced to grab Rich Hill to replace Brendan McKay who was just announced as not having made the roster/rotation. That is the 2nd High-Risk/High-Reward casualty that he’s suffered so far during the draft.
 
161Matt G
      ID: 45031313
      Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 08:50
21.04 Mike Fiers, SP, OAK I'm skeptical the attention he will receive as the Stros whistleblower will be a distraction this year. Otherwise he's good for 30+ starts a decent whip and an ok ERA. Hoping to use him as a spot starter. With so many High Innings guys on my team I need a few guys that I can just swap in and out of the lineup when they have a good matchup.
 
162Uptown Bombers
      ID: 28219112
      Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 12:36
21.10 Daniel Vogelbach, OF, SEA
I would prefer this pick to have either 3B or OF eligibility but I’ll have to find a player later for that I guess. Vogelbach offers some protection for Nunez and Davis by offering some power and RBI upside. I’ll have to sit him against lefties but if he can hit right handers all season like he did in the first half of last year, he’ll be a bargain at this price.

P.S. – I agree with KDL212 on the value of catchers at this point, especially with the details of an abbreviated season unknown. I still need a starting C but don’t have one I prefer over the others, so I’ll pass at least one more round.

P.P.S. – Thanks mmikulka. I spent most of my Wednesday night singing “Solak-ak-ak-ak”
 
163mailedfoot
      ID: 597203018
      Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 18:40
20.11 Hirano, Yoshihisa - SEA – RP
It is not clear who will close for the Mariners so I took Hirano here hoping he can land the job, pitch effectively, and collect some saves.

21.06 Belt, Brandon – SF – 1B
Belt has a close to full time gig as the Giants 1B, so I will try to take advantage of match ups and get him into my lineup against righties (.341/.427 last year). He is only 32, still young enough to put up some big numbers if he has a magical season.
 
164Uptown Bombers
      ID: 28219112
      Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 18:42
22.07 David Fletcher, UTL, LAA
This pick was mostly about versatility. He doesn’t have a starting position but is regarded as a strong defender. I trust Joe Maddon’s ability to find starts for him all over the field. Maddon has a track record of using these kinds of super-utility players. Fletcher got on base last year, which he will have to do again to be a regular in the lineup. I read some Angels fan sites clamoring for Fletcher to play more, so I’m trusting that if the fans like him, then he’s performing up to their expectations. Being able to plug him into 4 positions will serve useful in this format, provided his defense and OBP keep him in the lineup.
 
165loki
      SuperDude
      ID: 4211201420
      Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 20:52
21.12 Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET-It is possible that my first baseman may start the season in the minors, so I needed Cabrera to fill that possible void.

22.05 Rick Porcello, SP, NYM-Oh no, a second SP from the Mets. I had Porcello during his CYA season where he helped and then the following year where he hurt. He has had a good spring and a needed another SP, so he is another “why not.”
 
166I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 384502818
      Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 22:36
22.12 (348) Jackie Bradley Jr, OF, BOS
A good defender (guaranteed ABs), who is extremely streaky at the plate. Playing in Boston though, he should see plenty of counting stat opportunities, and he normally projects for ~750OPS w/10 steals. More of a high floor (un-sexy) pick. Thoughts on the twenty second round: I was hoping that one of the Angel MI-eligible guys (Simmons or Fletcher) would be available here, but I have another couple options from Seattle that I’m considering with my next pick.
 
167I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 384502818
      Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 23:59
23.05 (357) Shed Long, 2B, SEA
Middle Infielders are definitely my least proven positions, so I needed to grab a guy with upside here, who could cover in case Urias isn’t ready to go out of the gate, or if someone else goes down with injury. He’s currently penciled in as the lead-off hitter and starting second baseman for the Mariners. Projections seem to have him around 320/400 with 7-10 steals. Seems like a decent security option. Thoughts on the twenty third round: quoting Guru: “wow - Buster Posey in round 23. Doesn't seem like that many seasons ago that he was the first catcher off the board.”
 
168I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 384502818
      Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 00:06
24.12 (380) Tyler O'neill, OF, STL
Time for another swing for the fences pick. O’neil’s upside is tied to his ability to cut down on his strikeout rate. If he can do that, he should be the incumbent clean-up hitter (not currently penciled in though) for the Cardinals. It’s not impossible to see him find his way to 850+ OPS and 5+ SBs.

25.05 (389) Adam Ottavino, RP, NYY
Last pick of the draft, just grabbing an RP who can help out the ratios a bit. Playing for the Yankees in potentially high leverage situations, should be able to pick up the occasional W and S.
 
169KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 01:50
22.14 Will Harris, RP, WAS
I think there is a decent chance he will end the season with the most saves of anyone on the Nationals. Thought about Austin Riley, but (wrongly) figured I'd have him to think about at my next pick.
 
170KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 02:02
23.03 Jorge Alfaro, C, MIA
With Austin Riley swiped on the turn, I had a decision to make here: draft (1) Jesus Aguilar, the last remaining clean-up hitter on the board, and just a year removed from a very productive season, (2) Chris Taylor, who appears likely to start the season as the Dodgers second baseman while Gavin Lux is in AAA not accruing service time for a month, or (3) pick one of several catchers still on the board.

I talked myself into Chris Taylor making it back to me in the 24th round (he did!). But I knew Aguilar wouldn't. Aguilar's upside was certainly higher than any of the catchers I was considering, so I probably should've gone Aguilar, and then taken whatever the draft left me at catcher in Round 24/25.

But I read something that convinced me that Alfaro had a chance to distance himself from the likes of Chirinos, Suzuki, Perez, Castro, and Posey: he has insane exit velocity. Trouble is, he has a low launch angle and strikes out a ton. But if he progresses just a bit, and raises his launch angle a bit, at age 26, he could put up a 325/450 season with a few steals. So I went Alfaro, and regretted it the moment I did.
 
171KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 02:08
24.14 Chris Taylor, 2B/SS/OF, LAD
It seems like the Dodgers don't plan to start the year with Gavin Lux at 2B - they can get an extra year of control if he spends something like 5 weeks in AAA, and he'd been playing a lot of DH in spring training. If that's true, and they go with Chris Taylor for 5-6 starts a week (whether at second or all over the diamond), then I can get some nice all-around production out of a guy with maximum roster flexibility (maybe he even adds 3B if Turner misses time as he often does). As a bonus, he's Corey Seager insurance.
 
172KDL212
      ID: 200472320
      Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 02:16
25.03 Jose Alvarado, RP, TAM
Every year, I've still got 5 guys in my queue that I'd love to roster, and only one more roster spot to fill. I wish we had 28-30 roster spots/rounds of the draft. It would allow/encourage a bit more gambling in the draft, reduce the ease of in-season streaming, and (maybe) encourage a bit more trading activity.

So, out of a bunch of targets still on my board, I went with Jose Alvarado, who had a nightmare last season after a solid April that involved both personal matters with his Mom and injuries. Sure, the Rays have Nick Anderson and his silly stats from last year, but they also like to spread the bullpen around. And they wouldn't be the first team to hold back on a stud reliever pre-arbitration, so maybe Anderson doesn't actually get the bulk of the save opportunities.

 
173Matt G
      ID: 45031313
      Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 10:20
22.13 Francisco Mejia, C, SD Is this the year he finally realizes all that potential? I believe with adequate playing time he will be a top 10 C.

23.04 Zach Eflin SP, PHI Surprised he was still around, doesn't produce that Ks that I'd like by could have a stud start here or there. More than likely just going to spot start him as needed.

24.14 Zach Davies SP SDG Same deal as eflin, just a depth pick at this point, didn't like any of the relievers that were there I'll wait and waiver wire a few saves if necessary.

25.04 Dee Gordon 2B, OF SEA Steals and only steals here, I'll slide him in from time to time to boost that category, but only when he's getting the playing time to make a difference.
 
174Uptown Bombers
      ID: 28219112
      Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 10:26
23.10 Robinson Chirinos, C, TEX
With both Robinson and Yonny drafted, my team should be renamed Honey Nut Chirinos.

Some point around round 10, I put a list of several catchers into my queue and decided I could survive with any of them. A few had upside potential (S. Murphy, Alfaro, Mejia) and a few were more conservative options. Chirinos is the last one to survive in my queue. This morning (Friday, 3/27), I thought about adding Posey to the list and drafting him over Chirinos (Happy birthday Buster!) but stuck to my original instinct. I still think Posey, who got drafted shortly after by the other team needing a catcher, would be just as good an option at this stage.

24.07 Marwin Gonzalez, OF/CI MIN
No upside here, just a steady vet with eligibility at 3 positions. Between Gonzalez and Fletcher, I should be able to plug most line-up holes in the short term, while looking out for a long term addition in the FA pool. I don’t know the prospects that well compared to most of the folks in the boards, as I don’t play in any dynasty leagues. I’ve read about some of the younger players still available but have no strong opinions on them. So, I settled on the boring pick.

25.10 Trevor Gott, RP, SF
Another dart at the SF closer situation.
 
175mailedfoot
      ID: 597203018
      Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 10:39
22.11 Simmons, Andrelton - LAA – SS
Simmons is depth for MI positions. He had a down year last year, but the two previous years were pretty good and I’m hoping for a return to form. He is capable of double-digit steals if enough games get played.
23.06 Gausman, Kevin – SF – SP
Gausman will open the year in the Giants rotation and I expect him to pitch decently if healthy. He spent time pitching out of the bullpen last year and there has been some speculation he might return to that role. If that happens I would expect him to pitch in high leverage situations, possibly as a closer.
24.11 Kim, Kwang Hyun - STL – SP
Kim figures to open the season in the Cardinals rotation and has looked impressive this spring. The Cardinals have a good track record with pitchers, so I decided to take a chance with him.
25.06 Stanek, Ryne – MIA - RP
Stanek figures to pitch in high leverage situations for the Marlins and could quite possibly end up as their closer under the right circumstances. Basically I am fishing for saves here.
 
177Graydog
      ID: 22461020
      Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 12:42
22.15 Margot, Manuel - OF - TB

Late steals seem the scarcest thing in 2020. Margot was a former high level prospect who get a change of scenery. The Rays typically mix and match lineups more then most so hopefully he can gain some starts early for his defense and find at least a platoon role. If he plays he'll run.

I had two prospects, Adell and Carlson taken earlier this round from the top of my queue. Rare to lose two so late in this draft. Short season could bump up some prospects I think.

23.02 Petit, Yusmeiro - RP - OAK

A fly ball pitcher who plays in a giant park. Consistently has a very low WHIP which why I went for him over other handcuff options.

24.15 Santander, Anthony - OF - BAL

O man I'm glad I'm not an O's fan. This guy is supposed to bat third for you? Ouch. I bet he doesn't make my opening day roster. At best, I'll hold and hope for a hot start.

25.02 Dolis, Rafael - RP - TOR

Handcuff for Giles. I will likely just keep him on the bench unless in line for a save that day.
 
178loki
      SuperDude
      ID: 4211201420
      Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 12:43
23.12 Tommy Kahnle, RP, NYY-With my next picks I wanted to get help with ratios and strikeouts.

24.05 Pedro Baez, RP, NYY-Help with K’s and ratios and a handcuff for Kenley Jansen.

25.12 Chad Green, RP, NYY-As with my last 2 picks, help with ratios and Ks.

 
179mmikulka
      ID: 3225119
      Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 15:02
22.10 Cole Hamels, SP, ATL

Hamels hasn't been an ace in a while, but over the past 3 years he has still averaged about 3.90/1.28. I'd be happy with that kind of of production from my back-end SPs.

He had a shoulder injury flare up and would have had to miss the beginning of the season, but now he should have plenty of time to return to full health.

23.07 Stephen Piscotty, OF, OAK

Piscotty was an exciting prospect once upon a time. As recently as last year, Fangraphs' blurb said "Firmly in his prime, Piscotty is a solid mid-tier power bat who has the skills to plateau at or around his 2018 level for the next few seasons. He’s fairly priced, too, checking around the 40 to 50 range among all outfielders."

Piscotty has hit .336/.447 so far and he has plenty of SLG upside. He has averaged 82 R and 87 RBI in his two full seasons.

He is also currently dealing with an intercostal sprain, which is only the latest incident in what he recently described as an "eight-month perpetual cycle of hurt" which doesn't sound particularly promising... but there aren't many OF with playing time, upside, and a decent floor in the 23rd round, so it's worth taking a shot.
 
180holt
      ID: 491153264
      Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 15:46
19.16 Mckay, Brendan SP TAM

Absurd minor league numbers so far. He was sent to the minors but that doesn't necessarily mean I will need to cut him. Will see how things shake out.

20.01 Rodgers, Brendan 2B COL

.350 .413 .622 in AAA last year. former 3rd overall draft pick in 2015. Kind of a dart throw at some MI upside. He was terrible when called up to the majors briefly last season but he does offer a lot of potential in the Rockies lineup.


21.16 Hill, Rich SP MIN

I'm a glutton for punishment with this guy. He's usually lights out when you start him, which is usually a month or two since his previous start. If he ever managed to get a full season of starts he would be Cy Young material, but that's crazy talk.


22.01 Murphy, Tom C SEA

I may go through 20 catchers this year, who knows? But I'll start with Murphy. He had a .273 .324 .535 slash in the majors last season, and a career minor/major slash of .271 .334 .524 so I'm not worried about him dragging my team down.


23.16 Aguilar, Jesus 1B MIA

I think everyone is fairly well familiar with this guy. He has been great, and he has been terrible. Most recently he was terrible, but here he is at the end of the draft, and I have a need for a corner infielder who is lined up for a lot of at bats. so I'll take a chance and see if he can be great again.


24.01 Kopech, Michael SP CWS

Kopech had been on my radar for a few rounds, so when I saw he was still there I just drafted him with no deliberation. He's another top prospect 100mph guy, and my other dart throws at SP seemed to call for yet another dart throw. He was optioned to the minors yesterday but I'll keep him around for a while and see if anything shakes out.


25.16 Reyes, Victor OF DET

Very last pick of the draft. He'll probably be cut from my roster before too long but he does have decent 20 SB type speed. Not a huge bat but his numbers last year in AAA (.304 .334 .481) and MLB (.304 .336 .431) weren't shabby.
 
181mmikulka
      ID: 3225119
      Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 16:28
24.10 Jordan Montgomery, SP, NYY

After mostly ignoring starting pitching through the first 9 rounds, I have been drafting my SP with a heavy bias toward the W and K categories. All of my SPs are coming off seasons with a K/9 over 9, and all of them except Ohtani are playing for teams who had 97+ wins last season.

That should give me options when we get towards the final 1/3 of the season: if my pitching turns out like I'm hoping and I have a lot of ERA/WHIP roto points to maintain or gain, there's always a bunch of low-walk-rate pitchers like Pineda or Means or Yarbrough available to spot start because nobody wants to roster their weak K rates.

If my pitchers are doing poorly, this strategy should allow me to salvage my pitching category points by abandoning ERA/WHIP and getting toward the top in K/W by choosing mediocre spot starters with high K rates and good matchups.

Most projections only have Montgomery around ~8.5 K/9 this year, which is more in line with his career averages. He has also averaged 3.91/1.26, and at age 27 he's young enough to take a step up. Montgomery looked great in his limited spring training action, and his fastball is 2 mph faster than he has ever thrown it before. The AL East has a rough set of stadiums to pitch in, but the rest of the division looks weaker than it has in a long time.

25.07 Aristides Aquino, OF, CIN

Since our rosters will be frozen for an extended period of time, I wanted my last pick to be somebody whose value could potentially rise significantly over the next 2 months.

The plan is currently for Aquino to start the season in AAA, but if any of the 5 OF on the Reds get hurt, Aquino could be in line for meaningful playing time right off the bat.

Aquino also had a terrible start to spring training (0-14 with 6 Ks), and that likely contributed to the AAA decision. If there ends up being another brief spring training session (summer training?) when the MLB resumes, he might have a chance to go on a hot streak and redeem himself.
 
182slizz
      ID: 82432815
      Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 16:46
18.04 - Pomeranz, Drew, RP, SD - Was torn on going Pom Pom or Oberg here.  Its universally accepted that Pomeranz is the superior pitcher, but will likely see 0 save opportunities working behind Yates.  That said, Oberg has been remarkably consistent for Colorado and will likely inherit the job after Davis falters.  Man, I remember Wade Davis was once the most dominant RP in baseball...he's gone from that to nobody thinks he can do the job anymore.

I began to look at reasons to not take Pomeranz...and couldn't do it.  I already have elite SP and getting a lockdown bullpen would go along way to assuring me at least 60 points in pitching.  I've always been a fan of starters who move to the bullpen and gain velocity on their stuff.  Pomeranz is one of those types.  What is intriguing is that the Padres are loaded in the bullpen and most of those arms aren't equipped for a multi-inning role like Pomeranz is.  Signs point to that multi-inning role, which could net more wins than what is projected for him...that would give his value a larger boost.  If he replicates what he did in Milwaukee (2.39 ERA, .91 WHIP, 45k in 26 IP), I have Josh Hader minus the saves.  In Milwaukee he was that good...If he doesn't?  I'll wish I had Oberg *gulp*.

19.13 - Myers, Wil, OF, SD - He was staring at me long enough and, at this point in the draft, is well worth the pick.  His contract virtually guarantees he will see playing time, but there is a concerning downtrend in his usage as he saw only 490 PA in 155 games (2019)...meaning the Padres have a quick hook on him.  Only 7 players with at least 75 HR / 75 SB over the past four season:

Rd. 1 ADP
Trout - 146 HR / 87 SB
Yelich - 119 / 77
Lindor - 118 / 81
Betts - 116 / 97
Jose Ramirez 102 / 97
Rd. 2/3 ADP
Jose Altuve - 92 / 85

...Near 300 ADP, Wil Myers - 87 / 77.  And that is including his injury shortened 2018 season.  For a rotational bat, I could do a lot worse.

20.04 - Karinchak, James, RP, CLE - All about ratios here.  Karinchak just mows down everyone he faces...figure why not get him for some valuable K/9 depth. Also prevented Foot from getting. We had a bidding war on him in Ottoneu and he forced me to pay more than I wanted...but that was all in good fun. Fun fact - he does the shooter mcgavin whenever he strikes someone out.

21.13 - Carter Kieboom, 3B/SS, WSH - I think the Nats want him to win the job out of spring training / delayed start to the year...but my guess is that he doesn't and stays down as Asdrubal Cabrera is more than capable of holding down the hot corner while Starlin Castro / Kendrick can platoon at 2B.  If he does win the job...this is valuable bench depth.  Sad that I'd think about cutting my 21st round pick already.

22.04 - Adell, Jo, OF, LAA - We all know I love me some Jo Adell...and it's only a matter of time before he is among the top 25 players picked in a RIBC draft.  I was fortunate to take a flier on Tatis Jr. last time and with the shortened season we might see expanded rosters earlier due to the volume of games played.  If Adell is sent down, chances are I won't sit around for long as RIBC those depth spots are soooooo valuable.

23.13 - Posey, Buster, C, SF - Thought long and hard about taking a 2B here like Profar to start the first 10 games.  With Kingery set to man 2B all year for Philly, he will gain 2B eligibility by the 2nd week.  

As Smith & 9th noted, 5 teams had 2 catchers already by the 19th round.  I didn't want to risk floating him any longer.  Here's to hoping he still has some juice left...but I'm not holding my breath.  Only positive about Posey is that he won't kill my ratios.  If he was taken I would've just burned my 25th round pick on a catcher and went Profar.

24.04 - Miller, Andrew, RP, STL - Flier on a bullpen arm.  With the delayed start to the season, Miller will have an opportunity to "break camp" with the team.  The cards are notorious for manipulating their pen to save money in arbitration.  While Gallegos is one of their better arms, I could see him losing the saves opportunities if Miller hasn't been used in the 9th b/c it would lower his Arb #.  If not, first cut!

25.13 - Burnes, Corbin, RP, MIL - Pure spec play at upside.  Like Keller, Burnes has nasty stuff...but has been an abomination.  I will need to drop someone before the season starts to make room for a 2B streamer for the first few weeks of the season.  Freddy Galvis anyone?  hahaha
 
183beastiemiked
      ID: 35282121
      Sun, Mar 29, 2020, 12:00
8.06, Eduardo Escobar, 2b/3b, ARI

Escobar is a boring a pick. Someone that doesn’t appear to have much upside and someone you just want to repeats last years numbers. He provides power which my team needs. He’ll be slotting in 2b most likely but having dual eligibility is a huge plus. I almost took Votto here. Votto seems like he could rebound and be a stud again or could become the next Pujols or Miggy.

9.11 Hansel Robles, RP, ANA

My first closer. I almost decided to completely punt saves when the first closer run hit. After the mid tier guys slipped some I decided to take one. Robles seems to have a semi secure job. He’s one of the better pitchers that have secured a closers role. My plan is to handcuff him later with Buttrey as a safety. Leclerc was probably my 2nd choice here.
 
184RJ
      ID: 452392911
      Sun, Mar 29, 2020, 12:39
Officially catching up on my rationale updates to close this baby out!

16.16 Rougned Odor, 2B, TEX
He strikes out way too much and will likely be hovering around the Mendoza line but the counting stats at a thin position will be there. And not many 2Bs at this stage of the draft will have 30+ homer potential. He's still in his mid 20s so maybe he can learn a bit more patience at the plate.

17.01 Jon Gray, SP, COL
I took him largely for his strikeout potential. 3 of the last 4 seasons he's cracked 150 with 2 of those at 180+. I also felt I had enough solid ratio guys to negate the slight ERA/WHIP bump from him.

18.16 Brett Gardener, OF, NYY
He had a career high 28 homers last year and has been hovering around the 20 mark for a few years now. Also, while his SBs seem to be waning now, Gardener still had 10 last year so that will help to chip in. He's hitting in one of the better lineups in AL and has been durable throughout career. Needing an OF at this point made him a no brainer.

19.01 Dustin May, SP, LAD
It looks like his side issue is completely healed now and with the delayed start he will have a chance to be solid player in the rotation. Either that or a Kenta Maeda type from last year. He showed promise in limited action last year.

20.16 Ryan Yarbrough, SP, TAM
I'm glad he was still available at this point. The kid is still young and has played well in his first couple of seasons so there's some upside here. His low K rate is kind of a downside.

21.01 Travis d'Arnad, C, ATL
He was actually really good last year on the Rays
and will have the majority share of starts behind the plate this year over Flowers for the Braves. It's nice to have a decent backup catcher too just to take advantage of the games limits from the spot which I often fail to completely fill.

22.16 Tyler Duffey, RP, MIN
Had a bit of a breakout season last year. I see The Doof having another productive high K low ratio season to help balance things out. These guys can be a good value for your squad.

23.01 Austin Riley, ATL, OF
Like it was said earlier in this draft, better to try a younger guy and hope for a lottery ticket. Riley is still a bit raw but will be hitting in a great lineup. I'm just hoping he makes some strides in his sophomore season.

24.16 Nico Hoerner, CHC, SS
I felt he was worth a late round flier. Just looking at him as a backup shortstop with some potential.

25.01 Forrest Whitley, HOU, SP
He may have a chance to be in the mix in the starting rotation this year if he can put it together. As one of the top 20 or so redraft 2020 prospects, you could do worst with your 25th round picks.
 
185beastiemiked
      ID: 35282121
      Mon, Mar 30, 2020, 13:44
10.06 Ryan McMahon, 2B/3B, COL

Probably would redo this pick if I could. Was looking at Voit or another closer here but ultimately went with McMahon. His hard hit rate and playing in Coors should give him a high floor. They said he’ll get even more playing time this year. McMahon was one game short of qualifying at 1b last year so hopefully he can get to the ten games to qualify this year.

11.11 Christian Walker, 1b, Ari

I really needed a 1b and I had passed on them the previous couple of rounds. Decided to suck it up and take one I really wasn’t a fan of. Walker will hopefully duplicate last years numbers. No proud of this pick.

12.06 Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, Tor

That AL East move is scary. Ryu is notorious for pitching about half the year so this year will be perfect for him. His ratios are always good and he should still get wins with Toronto’s young line up. Really didn’t have a back up here as I made the pick on the fly.

13.11 German Marquez, SP, Col

What a difference a year makes. Marquez is defined by Coors. I think his k numbers will always be there. He shows signs of ace stuff especially away from Coors. Maybe should’ve went with another hitter here but I could resist the strikeouts.
 
186maspero
      ID: 38258615
      Mon, Mar 30, 2020, 16:53
15.09 Joe Musgrove, SP, PIT
Could it finally be the breakout season we have been waiting for by Musgrove? At 233 it is a gamble worth to take.
16.08 Christian Vazquez, C, BOS
After having taken swings (and missed) years prior to catchers like Buster Posey and Gary Sanchez in their bad years, I decided to wait on catchers. Ok, maybe Vazquez will not be a top 5 catcher, but his progresses doesn’t seem to be fluky.
17.09 Robinson Cano, 2B, NYM
At 265 as a MI, Cano seems a good gamble, on a player who, apart from last season, has always produced.
18.08 Hunter Renfroe, OF, TB
If Renfroe could win the RF job, he could contribute big time in SLG and also in RBI, taking a hit in the OBP … I hope the previous picks will offset this hit.
19.09 Miguel Andujar, UTIL, NYY
The upside and ability of Andujar are unquestioned, the problems are the bad defense and the competition. If the playing time will be there, the results will follow (and hopefully a position other than UTIL).
20.08 Matt Magill, RP, SEA
The last closer available, by closer charts, he was a dart throw for some saves before losing the job or before being traded.
21.09 Randal Grichuk, OF, TOR
At this time of the draft he was the highest of my board, but very similar to Renfroe. It was the third on the queue, after two SPs, who were promptly picked. My OBP gets weaker.
 
187beastiemiked
      ID: 35282121
      Tue, Mar 31, 2020, 00:18
14.06 Garrett Hampson, 2b/of, col
Another guy with dual eligibility. I love having versatility in this league due to the shallow bench. Hampson needs playing time. Not sure he will get it but if he does he’s good for steals and won’t drag down the percentages too much. Should be a middle infield guy. If something happens to McMahon he’s a good insurance policy. No one else was really on my list. I like CMart and Cron picks that came after Hampson.

15.11 Mike Foltynewicz, SP, ATL
1 year removed from a stellar season and he dropped like a rock. He got destroyed in the NLCS but if you watch the game he only made like 2 bad pitches and was on the short end on a few really close ball/strike calls that would’ve changed the inning. Folty is a strikeout guy that has always had control issues. 2nd half he started to put it back together. He pitched great in the minors when they sent him down. Another guy that I didn’t really have a queue for so no one else was on my radar.

16.06 Shogo Akiyama, OF, CIN
Who’s this guy? That’s the feeling I had about him before the draft. Should hopefully lead off for Cincy and be a decent obp guy with runs. I also considered Tsutsugo, Polanco, and Peralta here. Really like Tsutsugo but figured his playing time is a little less defined.

17.11 Miles Mikolas, SP, STL
Really didn’t need another SP but he had slipped too far. At this point it looked like June was the earliest point the season was going to start. That should hopefully be long enough for Miles to be healthy. definitely a question mark though.
 
188beastiemiked
      ID: 35282121
      Tue, Mar 31, 2020, 00:28
18.06 Mitch Haniger, OF, Sea
The all DL team is apparently what I’m going for at this point. Haniger has had notable injuries the past year. His recovery time is unknown and it’s unknown if he’ll be 100%. That said, if healthy he’s probably a 10th round pick. I like the Alcantara pick but I couldn’t pick another SP so had to pass

19.11 Scott Oberg, RP, Col
Another Colorado Rockies pitcher, I’m really asking for trouble. Oberg is 2nd in line for saves. I really doubt Wade Davis keeps the job for long. The Wil Myers pick and Choi picks later were both guys I considered.

20.06 Ty Buttrey, RP, ANA
A handcuff for Robles. Really like other RPs better but I needed to lock down one teams saves situation. Probably one of my first drops if Robles is lights out his first couple of outings. Luis Urias was someone I considered by PT was a concern.

21.11 Jose Martinez, OF, Tam
Really don’t like this pick. Hoping the Rays can work some devil magic on Martinez. Playing time is a concern but I’m hoping being a DH will allow Martinez to thrive. Considered Miggy, Kieboom, and Barnes here. Not sure how I feel how all of them going right after my pick.
 
189beastiemiked
      ID: 35282121
      Tue, Mar 31, 2020, 23:44
22.06 Dylan Carlson, OF, STL

At this point everyone is a shot in the dark. Rookies even more so. Depending on when the season starts and how short it is will determine if and when Carlson gets called up. He’s a legit talent but without playing time he’s worthless. I had a few others on my radar but none that I really liked that much.

23.11 Aaron Bummer, RP, CHW
Colome is on a 1 year deal so if the season starts in July there’s a decent chance he gets traded if the White Sox start off slow. Bummer is a decent gamble for saves.

24.06 Aaron Hicks, OF, NYY
Officially team “Aaron”. Hicks recovery time looks promising that he’ll be ready if the season starts in July. He’s a decent ratio guy for round 24. His health is the question mark. Figured it’s worth gambling that the season starts late and he’ll be ready.

25.11 Jordan Hicks, RP, STL
Speaking of the season starting late... Hicks return is unknown at this point. I think July is unlikely but possibly August. If season is extremely shortened I think he could be rushed back. I figured it’s worth the gamble to get a potential closer. He’ll be easy to drop if and when the season start is announced and he’s not ready.
 
190maspero
      ID: 38258615
      Wed, Apr 01, 2020, 07:09
22.08 Pablo Lopez, SP, MIA
Last year at this time he was the talk of the town, one of the possible surprises of the season … he gave some glimpse, but overall it didn’t pan out, due also to an injury, let’s see this year.
23.09 Nick Ahmed, SS, ARI
Good defensive abilities lead to plenty of playing time, good for cumulative stats for a reserve infielder.
24.08 Nathan Eovaldi, SP, BOS
Shooting in the dark for a last hurrah for Nathan, after the injury marred last season. Or he may be the first player I cut.
25.08 Josh Lindblom, SP, HOU
Another shot in the dark for the return to the USA after two very good seasons in the KBO.
 
191Jason
      ID: 52117113
      Wed, Apr 01, 2020, 16:18
3.15. Hiuraa, Keston – MIL – 2B
He had a fantastic rookie season, it was enjoyable having him in my team. All around player, with high percentages, he had HR-s, SB-s too.
This year he was the 48th in the Yahoo ranking list, behind him a very strong Cactus league games, so It was an easy decision for me.

4.02. Gallo, Joey – TEX – OF
1B or OF? This was the question in this round. I wanted Yordan Alvarez, but he was picked up just before me, and considering Victor Robles. Maybe Gallo seems a too early selection, but I was sure in the next round he will not be available.
I like Gallo tipically over 40 HR-s in a 82 matches basis, and last year was a brakeout year for him with almost 1.0 OPS.


5.15. Nola, Aaron – PHI – SP
The basic plan was, in the first five round I will draft only batters. Beacuse of this I looked around for 1B-s. I was considering R. Hoskins, M. Sano and C. Santana.
But in this phase of the draft I saw only 7 top 100 SP-s, so I changed my mind, and decided picking up two realy good pichers. And Nola was available, and it was a very big surprise for me. Tha 42th Yahoo ranking player in the 5th round? Yes.

6.02. Woodruff, Brandon – MIL – SP
Glasnow or Woodruff were my candidates for t this round. Glasnow wenrt off and I was very satisfied with getting Woodruff.
Woodruff is better and better year for year, and my expectation is that he will be a top 20 starting pitcher this year. Woodruff production is very similar to Nola-s, relatively high strike out ratio, with wins end good percentages.