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| Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Fri, Mar 12, 2021, 11:20
RIBC managers: Please post your rationales in this thread. Rationales are due on a two round lag (i.e., when you make you 3rd round pick, your 1st round rationale is due). You can post any rationale sooner than that if you wish.
Do not worry about placeholders or keeping things in the proper sequence. This is just a place to collect rationales, which I will then transfer over to the formal rationale thread in the proper sequence. This approach has worked well for the past several seasons, and I now have a somewhat automated method for making those transfers.
Remember that you should refrain from mentioning undrafted players. If you feel that your rationale requires that, then hold it back until the player has been drafted - unless the player mentioned is clearly undraftable this year.
When posting your first rationale, please also comment on your choice of draft sequence. |
| | | 1 | Toral
ID: 9541311
Sat, Mar 13, 2021, 07:31
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Picking 5th, I was able to get draft slot #3. With no Banzai draft to complicate matters, I prefer the highest slot available.
1.03 Fernando Tatis, Jr, SS, S.D.
Heading off to bed, I had been debating my pick here, assuming Acuna and Tatis would go 1-2. Betts or Soto? Soto or Betts? Just before falling asleep I had switched from Betts to Soto, but also reminded myself that these matters had a way of resolving themselves. This conundrun did, with Seattle Zen taking Soto at #2.
About Tatis himself, he's got youth, speed, power, OBP , a nice new contract and projects for over 100 runs and RBI. With the depth at SS this year, I would be happy with either Soto or Tatis here.
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| | | 2 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Sat, Mar 13, 2021, 08:18
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Pick 5 - Drew sixth selection. Four chose 1-4 and one chose the back end of the draft so I was able to slot into 5. This is perfect... I
have an elite 'top 5' in my head so this works out... now I just have to wait to see who will land on my lap.
1.05 Mookie Betts, OF, LAD
When we were drafting for slots, mmikulka with the first choice went for four. Too early I thought if he was targeting a pitcher, so figured he had a top-4 and would be happy with any. I had the following players in my 'top 5' in order of what I considered the real elite first rounders.. Soto (yes I had SOTO number one), Trout, Acuna, Tatis, Betts. Pre draft I thought I'd have a good shot of Tatis at 5, then saw him get grabbed earlier than pick 5 in the other RIBCs and similarly here. I saw Trout drop to as low as 6th in one of the other RIBCs so started drooling, but it was not to be.
So, Mookie it is.
With Betts, whats not to like. From the leadoff spot on a potent Dodgers team he should easily score over 100, maybe even near 120. He'll still drive in over 90 from the leadoff spot (I only wish the NL had the DH again this season), he has pop and is among the top 10 every year in SLG. Betts is trending 1 in ADP based on standard 5x5 due to average but his walk rate is decent so he has an above average OBP. True five tool fantasy hitter, our format or standard. I always hope for a top of the draft spot to grab someone like who can be the anchor of my offense... someone just like Mookie. Then again I look at the players still left to grab this round (my Q after Mookie - Harper, Ramirez, Bellinger, Story, Yellich, Freeman) and the top of the draft hitting talent is deep this season.
I guess I still have work to do to assemble my team.... We'll all have a good hitter anchoring our lineups :)
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| | | 3 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Sat, Mar 13, 2021, 09:26
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Choice of draft slot – I was blessed with the third choice. Last year I choose the thirteenth spot as I felt the first round was very deep and I was quite happy and surprised to land Gerritt Cole. This year, I think there are three or four very strong players, worth $10+ more than the players 13-16 using a $260 budget. Given the chance, I will take one of these. The top two are Juan Soto and Mike Trout. We know what Trout does, safest bet to reach a 1000 OPS. He has seriously slowed down stealing bases so in most 5X5 he is going #5. In RIBC I think he’s the second best player and the safest bet.
When you get comped to Ted Williams at age 22, I take notice. Juan Soto was absolutely insane last season. I can’t wait to see what he is capable this year and I read that he threw out the “I think I want to run more this year” cliché, I got gooey eyed. He’s my number one, slightly more variable than Trout. Francisco Tatis is my number three player. I have nothing more than a gut feeling that Tatis will outperform Acuña. Drafted before Trout in most 5X5s. Excellent combination of OPS and steals. So very young, have to expect some regression to mortal status with so little experience. The difference between Trout and Tatis is enough that I don’t want to take a chance that at three both Soto and Trout were gone.
1.02.2 Juan Soto
Here are some of the eye-popping stats Juan posted last year:
.490/.695 39/37/6 .478wOBA, 21% BB, 200 wRC+,
Did you catch what a historic hot streak Juan ripped off last year? His 200 wRC+ is the eighth best since 1990. 2001-4 Bonds were the four best, in 1994 Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas had a 205, so did 1998 McGwire. Yes, no Trout. Seems like you need steroids to reach 200. Those of us who watched the 2019 post season saw a preview of what Juan was capable of doing. This kid is so young and has shown ridiculous power for his age, you will be forgiven for thinking that he will continue to improve each year until he turns 28. Truth is, just a slight step back with his bat and he could still be the MVP. He is likely to have a 1.000 OPS and 220+ R/RBI, just like Trout, so what everyone is dying to know is how many steals are we talking here? He stole 6 bases in only 47 games. Twelve steals in a full 2019. If he kept up last years pace, 24 to 25 steals with his OPS would make him the top bat in the league I would suggest. That is why I believe he is the best overall pick.
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| | | 4 | Nerfherders
ID: 56261418
Sat, Mar 13, 2021, 15:01
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12th spot: There was really not much of a choice here, or strategy, so I went with the highest pick available, which led to:
Gerrit Cole, SP NYY
... picking a SP in the first round. Something that I haven't done in this league that I remember. I have my own rating system for players based on the historical stats of the three RIBC leagues, and when I punched the projections in I noted that SP values dropped precipitously from the top 3 to the next group. Those 3 are Degrom, Cole, and Beiber, which you could call 1, 1A, and 1B. Degrom was already taken, and I picked Cole over Beiber mostly because he'll be on a better team and a better chance for wins. This is definitely a risky move, especially when there were still high-value hitters on the board, but I'm hoping my overall strategy pays off here.
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| | | 5 | mailedfoot
ID: 15118199
Sat, Mar 13, 2021, 16:07
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1.09 Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL
I was under siege at work when it was my turn to pick a draft position, so I took number nine without much thinking other than wanting to be in the middle. Picking at nine, I had several options and ended up going with steady Freddie. I considered taking a top tier starter or a hitter with more of a stolen base pedigree, but Freeman has such a consistent record of excellent production and being a little leery of the depth at first base this year, especially in a 16 team league, I decided to lock in one of the best and build on him.
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| | | 6 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Sat, Mar 13, 2021, 23:28
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2.12Trever Bauer, SP, LAD
Second Dodger in two picks. Go Blue! At least I don't have to root for these guys in October.
More pitchers made it back to pick 28 than I expected. Five taken. Considered Bregman 3B here and then grab an SP on the rebound, but his lingering hammy issues shouldn't concern me that much, but it did.
Baeur is a bit of a flake, he gets into twitter wars with everyone (@BauerOutage) - opposing players, fans who troll, racists, whole fan bases and whole teams (Mets), and he just signed a huge deal making him the highest paid player this season... so lets hope he still has the fire on the field to back up his talk and his wallet.
Bauer is an efficient strike out pitcher, has the best k/9 rate after the 5 SP drafted ahead of him, and is a work horse - Only one of four pitchers I see projected for 195+IP this season. Pitching deep into Dodger games should yield 15+ wins (In 2021 - fifteen wins is the new twenty), should have a very good WHIP (1.1) and I can live with his mid-3 ERA projection.
He has a reputation for constantly tweaking his mechanics - that can be scary if he loses it (like 2019), but if he is on, he is as good as any in the game. This spring he was screwing around with pitching with one eye closed (like an archer) so always a fun watch. This pick was a no brainer so you could say I was able choose Bauer with both eyes closed.
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| | | 7 | kdl212
ID: 17825210
Sat, Mar 13, 2021, 23:53
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2.09 Yu Darvish, SP, SD
In this, the last year of Rotoguru, I'm going to resist the urge to draft strictly according to my sheet, and splurge more often on guys I like. Once Corey Seager went, there weren't any hitters I liked enough to justify taking at this spot in the draft. Delightfully, Yu Darvish was still available. And as a baseball fan, I really like Yu Darvish. He has something like 41 different pitches. Since the All-Star break in 2019, he's been insane. I'm hoping he keeps it going one more year. If Darvish had been picked, I would've kept it local and went Bauer or Buehler.
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| | | 8 | s R
ID: 17234144
Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 05:44
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1.13 Harper, Bryce - PHI - OF
I picked him over Yelich because the OBP. His fantasy value is only truly shown in OBP leagues. In 2020, almost nobody was better at taking a walk than Harper. The Bat X projects Harper to have a .394 OBP with 105 runs, 104 RBI and 14 steals. That is very similar to Soto’s projection...
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| | | 9 | s R
ID: 17234144
Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 06:47
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2.04 Bichette, Bo - TOR- SS
Right away my first pick my "safe" second round choice was Bogaerts, but Guru grabbed him. Then I had to decide between Bo and Bregman. I choose Bichette because of position scarcity. He has played just 75 major-league games, but all he’s done is live up to every single expectation placed on him, hitting .307/.347/.549 with a 100 R, 88 RBI, 16 steal per 150 game pace. And the Blue Jays lineup is even better.
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| | | 10 | mailedfoot
ID: 15118199
Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 07:55
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2.08 Lucas Giolito, SP, CHW
Was considering Seager, Giolito, and Darvish in the lead-up to this pick. Seager being picked right in front of me made it a decision between the two hurlers. I took Giolito thinking he is likely to get more innings and at 26, he should be entering his prime. Essentially, I am betting he still has another gear.
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| | | 11 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 10:20
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2.15.31 Walker Buehler, SP, LAD
I’m looking ahead to my second and third round picks with eager anticipation. Love to play the “guess who is player A and player B” game -
Player A .352/.475 106/78/33
Player B .360/.526 95/102/33
It’s a bit of a trick question. Player A is a forecast of Trey Turner’s 2021 season. Player B is actually two players, it’s the combination of Juan Soto and A Mondesi’s forecasts split into two players. Combining those two gives you two Trey Turners. Hard pressed to imagine a better way to start your team. Yes, Adelberto is as unstable as old nitroglycerine, but I think he could actually swipe 65 bases himself. Insert your favorite risk-taking cliché here, I’ll go with “No riskit, No biscuit.” Other bats that I am looking at this morning are Manny Machado, DJ LeMahieu, Corey Seager, Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman and Anthony Rendon. Of the four thirdbasemen, I like Bregman and Rendon above the other two. They both have posted OBP over .400 and some are forecasting them to do it again. I would be so far ahead in the OBP game I could focus on power bats with average or worse OBP and reap some profit.
I will keep my eyes on the pitchers coming off the board. I imagine quite a few of them being drafted in the second. If Kershaw is available, I may take him at #31 and then my top bat at #34. I really liked the idea of Clayton visiting Driveline this offseason. Where most pitchers go to Driveline to learn a new pitch or to work on making their current offerings more consistent, I think CK would benefit from improving his mechanics so as to limit the strain he places on his arm-body and possibly lower his chance of injury.
I didn’t figure Buehler would still be here at 31. Round two’s theme seemed to be Who Needs Pitching, not me? Darvish and Bauer sink in comparison to other drafts. I started my draft prep early this year, I first dove into 2020 numbers Thanksgiving week as I was sitting in quarantine. Around the end of January I had ranked my top 50 players for RIBC with the notion that these choices could change come draft day. Back then I had Bauer, Darvish, Kershaw, Buehler, Nola, Giolito and Scherzer in that order. For 2021 I will find myself vacillating between two clichés: 2020 never happened! and Man, did you see the improvement Player X made in his game? In deciding between Buehler and Kershaw, I went with cliché one with a touch of “But did you see Buehler’s dominate post season?” and also let the invisible hand called “The Wisdom of the Crowd©” influence my decision finger.
Here’s my early winter Buehler write up
2020 3.44/0.95 1 win .198 BABIP, 10.31 K/9
The way I feel discussing a pitcher who started only eight games last year feels a whole lot different than discussing a batter who had 260+ plate appearances. Buehler’s ERA was not top 50 stuff but his WHIP certainly was. Maybe if he played on a good team he would have had more than one win HA! I am surprised he turns 27 this season, he feels like a sophomore. He gave up 8 homers in his seven games or 1.72/9. That is what happens when 42% of the balls hit were fly balls and 18% of those go over the fence. Still feel like there was a lot of short season variance here, he looked dominant in the Post Season. He had a top five fastball last season, I think his regression will keep him in the top 30.
With two picks to go I have a Q of Bregman, Buehler and Nola. I have let Spring Training corrupt my decision making process. Kershaw’s velo is down this spring. I bump Nola up over him. Bregman gets snagged and I end up with Buehler. I’m in three leagues with Fosten and I know his tendencies. He’s from some small backwater in Indiana, I imagine it’s like a Midwest version of Tobacco Road, the kind of place where the phrase “fell off the back of a turnip truck” applies. I know that he abhors pitching. If meeting Comm. Manfred he would implore him to change the rules to make baseball into slow pitch, pitchers must toss the ball underhand, the ball must be at least six feet off the ground but no more than 12. I knew he wouldn’t take a pitcher around the turn so I should have put Arenado after Bregman and scored Buehler at #34. His choices of Luis Robert and Devers also reminded me that he loves the youngins, if they start growing hair on their chest they are too old to be on Fosten’s radar, so I was covered.
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| | | 12 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 10:23
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3.02.34 Noland Arenado, 3rd, StL
2021 .303/.434 23, 26, 0 .241 BABIP, .308 wOBA, 76 wRC+
Ugh, he had his worst season since he was a rookie in 2013. Coming off a rock solid five year stretch, this was obviously unexpected, so let’s put him solidly in the “2020 didn’t happen” camp. He injured his shoulder making a diving stop on a ball in the fifth game of the season and his AC joint bothered him all season. Didn’t need surgery, just rest. That’s the type of news that makes me feel confident that going into his age 30 season he should look a lot more like the Arenado of the previous five seasons. The other news is that Nolan thinks management is awful at their jobs and he is right. But with the contract he has it is very unlikely he can be traded so Mile High home at bats look like they will continue in 2021 (WRONG!) I don’t need to dive deep into his batted ball numbers, I think he will likely produce top 25 numbers and that is without the help of steals. His draft position will be hampered by his poor 2020 performance and fear that his new home stadium will depress his numbers, making him one of my top profit targets of 2021.
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| | | 13 | Da Bomb
Donor
ID: 487112814
Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 11:06
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1.14 Christian Yelich, OF, MIL
After back to back incredible campaigns in 2018-19 posting OPSs of 1.000 and 1.100 and stealing a total of 52 bases, Yelich had a rough 2 months last season. There were still several things to like including his elite BB rate, a BABIP well below his career average that should positively regress, and he still crushed LHPs with a 1.068 OPS.
2.03 Manny Machado, 3B, SD
Machado's .950 OPS last season was the best of his career as he settled into the middle of the now scary Padres lineup. Several advanced stats support his surface level production as his improved plate approach paid huge dividends, including a career best BB walk rate. Double digit SBs can be expected as well.
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| | | 14 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 12:21
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3.05 George Springer, OF, Tor
Would have clicked the 'draft' button quicker but gave another look-see at options at other positions since I already have an OF on roster. Maybe I could have taken an SP2 like Nola here (more likely I would have done it if Scherzer were still on the board), thought about Alonso for 1B (close call) or Torres of Lowe MI (way too early), but I think Springer for me is the better play here.
Just like my last pick, another player who is coming off free agency and and joined a new team for the big contract, again hope that there is motivation to prove his worth.
I tend to draft the high walk rate and slugging guys if all else is equal, and George sticks out among the options I had here. He has a low K rate and puts the ball in play, and hits hard - a real plus for helping my teams ratios - and he should see or near triple digits in runs and rbi as an every day player in the guts of an improved Blue Jays lineup. Very light on the SB for a center fielder and number 2 hitter. I'm fine with that.
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| | | 15 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 12:42
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Butt
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| | | 16 | Nerfherders
ID: 56261418
Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 12:55
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2.07 Corey Seager, SS LAD
The rest of the elite hitters disappeared around the turn and I was left with guys with peculiar flaws. Do I want a standard slugger, or chase a position of relative weakness? I kinda did neither, tho chasing MI early is not a terrible plan. I had Seager in 2019 and he disappointed, but was awesome in 2020. Which Seager will appear this year? I guess we shall see.
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| | | 17 | Graydog
ID: 521432422
Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 13:49
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1.11 Story, Trevor - COL - SS
I didn't have much choice in draft position (11 thru 14 I believe) so I just went closer to the middle which is my preference. I didn't love this draft slot however as it appeared to me there were a bunch of similar guys. I went for Story despite the trade rumors and the possibly awful offense around him. Other considerations Harper and Bellinger.
2.06 Lemahieu, DJ - NYY- 2B
Lemahieu seems like a safe bet to cross the plate 100 times with great ratios as the leadoff hitter for the Yankees. I like safe picks early in RIBC and he is that. I also like to address OBP early and he should be a solid contributor there.
3.11 Abreu, Jose - CWS - 1B
I was totally shocked to get Abreu here as I almost took him in round 2. Not sure why he slipped so far - he must have boring vet status. His statcast data showed no signs of slowing down last year as he actually posted his highest average exit velocity (92.9). I think his career ratios (350, 520) are in reach along with 200 counting stats. I am hoping this pick turns out to be a steal.
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| | | 18 | youngroman
ID: 515013
Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 14:25
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pick #12
12 to 14 were available. I picked the highest pick that was left. I don't prefer picking too close to the turn. I am not targeting a specific player in round 1 or 2, so there is no bigger thinking behind.
1.12 Shane Bieber, SP, CLE
I did not expect any of the top 3 pitchers to last until this pick. I thought that I would end up with someone like Trevor Story.
Not much explanation needed for this pick. The first tier consists of 3 pitchers (deGrom, Cole, Bieber). 2 were taken, so I do not need to decide between any of them and pick the one that is left. Bieber provides very good ERA/WHIP with lots of K's. a solid foundation for any teams pitching stats.
2.05 Ozzie Albies, 2B, ATL
after taking Bieber in round 1 I thought about picking a 2nd pitcher here, but I felt that none of the options is worthy a pick that high, especially with Bieber already on my team. Darvish was closest of being taken with this pick.
only thought very short of taking Mondesi here, but he is a 1-trick pony and I don't want to primarily rely on 1 guy to get me the necessary stats for SB's. I then split the potential hitters into 2 categories: those with 10-20 SB's and those with less than that but better power numbers. In the end I thought that passing on a SB guy is not an option and took the best bet on getting SB's without hurting OBP/SLG/RBI too much. Albies hopefully fits that bill.
3.12 Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, TOR
with 2 picks to go I filled my queue in this order: Alonso, Abreu, Guerrero. Exactly the order they got drafted.
After I thought to get a pitcher in round 2, I again thought about it with this pick. This time there were too many similar pitchers out there that might be worth drafting around this pick. No one stood out of that group so I thought that I could wait 8 more picks and see how much remain.
after I went with Albies in round 2 I definitely need a player with some pop. Guerrero does just that. He can be outstanding for some weeks and he may be bad for some weeks. He is still young and lets see what he delivers for my team. He definitely has the potential to outperform his draft position.
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| | | 19 | Toral
ID: 9541311
Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 18:26
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2.14 Cavan Biggio, 2B/3B/OF, Tor
Alex Bregman was at the top of my queue but mmikulka grabbed him for the first Official Snipe of the draft. I can do without the dirty little cheater (Bregman, that is). As I am typing this, an A's spring training game is on and they're starting the season with a home stand against the As and the announcers are reminding the fans that it's a great opportunity for them to come out and let the Astros know what they think of them.
But eventually I'll have to get to the question people want an answer to: why did I draft Biggio here? Did I confuse him with Craig Biggio? Or is it a Blue Jays homer pick?
No. Trust the process. This is an OBP league and he might put up a .360/.511 season with 25 SB AND 25 homers (says The Baseball Forecaster.) In his career he's 20-for20 in stolen base attempts.The multiple position eligibility is useful too. One formula I use values him at $25, equal to Kyle Tucker (already taken at 2.11) and Aaron Judge (3.04). Also to be considered is that RIBC only requires 4 OFs. In this league, OFs are like city buses. If you miss one, another will come along within 15 picks or so.
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| | | 20 | Toral
ID: 9541311
Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 18:58
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3.03 Max Scherzer, SP, Was
There seems to be a consensus among the experts that this is not the year to try things like waiting until the 10th round to draft SPs. With pitching patterns changing, you want one or 2 guys who can be counted on to pitch 180 innings if healthy. The consensus top 3 went quickly. A source I use had a 7-person second tier of starters: Bauer (2.12), Scherzer (3.03), Buehler (2.15), Flaherty (3.16), Castillo (4.01) and Kershaw (3.14).
With Scherzer there is the possibility of age-related decline. But his velocity held up last year, and pitchers can walk off the field clutching their elbow at any age. Scherzer is in the right league (without the DH) for a team that should be competitive. I would have been satisfied with anyone in that tier here, as well as with Giolito (2.08), Darvish (2.09) or Nola (3.06).
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| | | 21 | mailedfoot
ID: 15118199
Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 20:15
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3.09 Yordan Alvarez, UTL, HOU
I was intending to take a position (other than utility) player with this pick but, because of careless queue management, I selected Yordan Alvarez. He was at the top of my general queue and I confused the queues from which the pick was to be taken. Alvarez has an injury history and limits positional flexibility, so he comes with some risk and is not typically the kind of player I would be considering at this stage of the draft. On the plus side, we do have an extra bench space this year and he has tremendous offensive upside, being projected for something like .370/.550 over 130 games. This pick is not completely out-of-line with his ADP and he says he is healthy, so I am good with the situation and hoping he can stay healthy.
2.08 Gleyber Torres, SS, NYY
Torres is the player I thought I had queued up to take with last pick, so I am happy he is still available here. He was somewhat disappointing last year but is projected for a line of about .350/.495, 180 R/RBIs, and a handful of steals, so the experts are expecting a rebound and I am buying in. According to the projection systems I looked at, his auction value is higher than any of the other available shortstops. He becomes the first piece of my MI puzzle, so I feel like my roster is starting to take shape.
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| | | 22 | kdl212
ID: 17825210
Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 21:54
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3.08 Marcell Ozuna, OF, ATL
What was in the water last year in Atlanta? Acuna, Freeeman, and Ozuna went berzerk. He had 56 RBI in 60 games! And have you seen him swing? He goes up to bat with every intention of crushing the ball. I don't know how reliable ESPN's player rater is, but Ozuna finished higher on it for 2020 than Acuna without a single stolen base. (And I just realized that my first 3 picks were #5, #7, and #9 on the player rater last year. Hmm. Maybe I'm over-valuing 2020 a bit).
I seem to come up short on RBI every year because of the hitters I tend to draft. To try and avoid that this year, I grabbed Ozuna, who could knock in 120 in that lineup over a full season. He's also a bigger injury risk than I'd prefer at this point. He can't just mash as a DH this year like he did most of last year. Here's hoping the shoulder woes don't make this a bust.
Was also considering Pete Alonso and Gleybar Torres. My dreams of Gleybar making it back to me in round 4 were dashed at the last possible moment.
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| | | 23 | Da Bomb
Donor
ID: 487112814
Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 23:44
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3.14 Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD
I was deciding between Kershaw, Flaherty and Castillo for this pick. I thought there was at least a chance all 3 could be selected during the short turn as neither had an SP yet (and the other 2 SP ended up being taken before my next pick). Flaherty and Castillo have some more upside with their better K rates, but Kershaw is amazingly consistent and he has the edge in Wins potential. I’ll be very happy with 180 IP.
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| | | 24 | holt
ID: 491153264
Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 03:05
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1.16 Lindor, Francisco SS NYM
Out in the woods in an RV all weekend, not able to devote much time to research or draft planning. Maybe I'll get some decent draft picks for once. Lindor was the best option here to pick up some steals. Counting on his production to be more in line with his pre-2020 numbers.
2.01 Rendon, Anthony 3B LAA
Decided to go with another hitter. Rendon seemed like a solid pick. Was focusing on getting a strong OBP contributor here, ended up choosing Rendon over Bregman.
3.16 Flaherty, Jack SP STL
Wanted at least one SP on this turn, logged in and saw both Flaherty and Castillo still available. Decided rather than wasting time trying to pick one of the two, I'll just take both and get back to the campfire. I'm a Cardinals fan so bonus!
4.01 49 Castillo, Luis SP CIN
This league can be painfully difficult to win without having several dominant SP's and I find it easier to improve hitting during the season than pitching so with Castillo slipping to the 4th rd I felt this was an easy decision.
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| | | 25 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 11:24
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4.12 Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Cin
Was hoping Gleybar would make it here... I never seem to have any of my Yankees in this league.. but he fell a few picks ago.
Had Suarez as my top 3B, Goldschmidt as my top 1B and 2B eligible Marte/Muncy as my MI. No SS near the top of my board. I had Carasco at the top for SP, but did not like him enough to take a pitcher over a bat and he has a few lingering soreness issues. The first RP just went, but I am NOT reaching this early for a closer... period. I'll wait until 6 and hope get one of my top 7. So I chose Suarez over Goldy and Marte because the drop off I see at 3B is much greater than 1B where I have a few more options if I want to wait down draft.
While a low average guy, in our format he makes up for that by getting walks and extra base hits. His slash predictions are averaging in the .235/.355/.490 neighborhood. He's expected to bat clean up for the Reds so that should lead to good run production. If he steals 5 this year, good for me.
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| | | 26 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 11:56
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5.05 Max Muncy, 2B, LAD
Again gave Carrasco a strong look as my SP2, but i feel like I need to grab hitters before they go off the board. - (note: Carrrasco fell to me at 6.12)
Muncy is a 1B with 2B eligibility which really boosts his value in my eyes. I am drafting hopefully the 2017-2019 Max Muncy, and not the 2020 regular season version who had a real down year.
Another Dodger... ugh. Muncy is not a good average guy but makes up for it with extra base power and walks... again why he may not looked as appealing with traditional 5x5 rankings and ADP. But he is the Dodger first baseman and is likely to bat cleanup. He made up for his poor regular season last year with a pretty productive October going 15 for 60 with 20 walks!) so I think for someone I am slotting in a MI position I am getting great value.
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| | | 27 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 13:08
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4.15.63 Paul Goldschmidt, 1st, StL
It’s a beautiful Saturday morning in the Pacific Northwest and rather than being outside, I’m creating a queue with 18 picks to go before it’s my turn. I’ve got 13 names on it, will there be any left? Two? I’m looking at starting pitchers and infielders, no catchers or relievers. They are not in order yet – Kershaw, Maeda, Castillo, Carrasco, Snell, Glasnow, Merrifield, Whit, Torres, Gleyber, Suarez, Eugenio, Goldschmidt, Paul, Voit, Luke, Lowe, Brandon, and {undrafted}.
Go to bed with six of these players left and only the elder Canadian left to pick before me. I figured Hader and Liam would be taken. If they pitch as projected they will deliver top 60 overall value. Thing is, relievers can have their ratios decimated by simply having back-to-back poor performances. Hell, Hader could lose his job to a certain stud in waiting in Milwaukee. Personally, unless we are talking prime Eckersly or Mariano, I’m not likely to take a reliever in the top 100. Watching the draft unfold, I do not see any questionable picks all day. Was hoping to get Gleyber and when he went Eugenio was a top my Q. As I mentioned in my previous rationale, I feel safe in predicting that Fosten will go with two bats so as I go to bed I have Voit and Goldschmidt atop my Q with starters in my Q around the bend.
I was rudely awaken at 5:00am to learn that Toral took Voit leaving me with Goldy. I spit invective over the Wall in hopes a wilding up there gets word of my displeasure to Toral back East. Look, I am a rational man. I know that Voit and Goldschmidt are similarly situated firstbasemen. Some prognosticators have Voit with the better 2021, others go with Paul. There is no such thing as certainty. I always find it entertaining at years end to reread these rationales and teams’ favorite and least favorite picks because of just how wrong they end up. Perhaps I am casting a spell unwittingly by proclaiming my dismay at losing Voit that will cause him to falter and Paul to flourish. Here’s to hoping.
Paul is acceptable in both the 2020 didn’t happen and Man, did you see the improvement Paul made in his game departments. He had a 16% walk rate last year giving him a .417 OBP which was not even his career high. His ISO was a disappointing .162, a career low. But his expected weighted OBA for 2020 was elite. He still hit the ball hard last year, I expect the ISO to get back over .200. He might not be a 900 OPS lock anymore, but he should be good for 850 and with his new teammate Arenado in the line up, they both should have quite a few runs and RBIs. Don’t know if StL will allow him to steal a few bases or not. I’m all Team Paul now, one more Yankee to yell at from the stands!
5.02.66 Kenta Maeda, SP, Twins
I’m all about Maeda who is in the Man, did you see how that stud shined in 2020 camp. With the addition of a new vacuum at shortstop for the Twins, the defense behind him improved a ton!
2.70/0.75 32.3 K%, 4% BB, 3.00 FIP, 24.7 Hard hit %. Second in Cy Young Voting
LOVED this trade for the Twins. Kenta is seriously underrated. He barely walks anyone, strikes out more than most and induces very weak contact. That WHIP will carry your fantasy team. The Twins got him to reduce his fastball from over 40% to just 19% and it went from an average pitch to outstanding. Paired with an elite change up and a very good slider, he was the whole package. With the retirement of Hisashi Iwakuma, Kenta is my current Nihongo speaking 告白 こくはく. His .208 BABIP may go up, but his 18.8% HR/FB will probably go down. I’m loving what being on the Twins does for Maeda and I have him HIGH up on my list. Oh, and he added a curveball!
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| | | 28 | s R
ID: 17234144
Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 14:39
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3.13 Woodruff, Brandon - MIL - SP
It's strange for me to choose so early an SP, but all my hitter tagets are gone. I don't trust Flaherty, Kershaw is in decline. Woodruff has one of the best fastballs in the game. There are some workload concerns for Woodruff as well but he looks like a safe bet for good ratios and tons of strikeouts.
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| | | 29 | s R
ID: 17234144
Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 14:46
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4.04 Martinez, J.D. - BOS- DH
It seems risky now picking an UTIL but he was one of MLB’s best hitters over the last several years and I am expecting a strong bounce-back season in 2021.
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| | | 30 | kdl212
ID: 17825210
Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 14:49
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4.09 Zac Gallen, SP, ARI
Instant regret. Then when only 2 starters went before my next pick, my regret increased significantly. But then, when one of the hitters I was considering instead of Gallen (Rizzo) was still available in the 5th, I regretted it a little less. In my mind, I'll just imagine I overpaid for Rizzo in the 4th and got Gallen in the 5th.
The starter run never materialized (we're in round 7 and it hasn't happened yet), so my regret is back up really high on this pick. Would much rather have Voit or Goldschmidt plus a starting pitcher in round 8, than Gallen + whatever hitter I draft in round 8. I significantly misread the room on starting pitching, and it'll haunt me until we're until the teen rounds of the draft.
Still, despite all the regret, I seem to have drafted Gallen later than many other places. Not sure why. The way this draft has gone, I just don't see him outproducing my SP3. Ugh.
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| | | 31 | mmikulka
ID: 4211332822
Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 16:07
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Draft slot #4: I think this is my first time selecting first in a RIBC league. In many previous years, I would have defaulted to 1st overall and taken Trout. This year, I saw a clear top 5, which I viewed more specifically as a top 4 + Betts. I debated whether or not I preferred Tatis over the others for position/SB scarcity, but decided I'd be happy with any of Tatis/Acuna/Soto/Trout and content with Betts if an injury to one of those 4 occurred in the ensuing few weeks.
1.04 Mike Trout, OF, LAA
He is Mike Trout. Hopefully he continues playing like Mike Trout for at least 1 more season.
2.13 Alex Bregman, 3B, HOU
I was hoping Mondesi would reach me, but he didnt. I started to second guess not taking a high enough slot to guarantee a quality SS and early SB. I wasn't targeting Bregman, but his value stood out to me both by ADP and by my projections.
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| | | 32 | kdl212
ID: 17825210
Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 16:08
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5.08 Anthony Rizzo, 1B, CHC
Rizzo is one of the few first-round picks I didn't screw up in RIBC. Just last year he was picked in round 2. I don't believe he's close to done, and expect a rebound to high-OBP, 3rd round production this year. Also considered Austin Meadows, Giancarlo Stanton and Rhys Hoskins, but it was too early on him. Wouldn't be surprised if he put up 3rd round production as well.
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| | | 33 | mmikulka
ID: 4211332822
Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 16:21
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3.04 Aaron Judge, OF, NYY
I set my queue with Scherzer and Judge before going to sleep and Toral took Scherzer. I would have preferred drafting a SP instead of a 2nd OF, but Judge is about as reliable as it gets when he is on the field and he would presumably be a 1st rounder if not for the (valid) injury concerns. Judge is only 28, so maybe he will put together a 150+ game season. The last time he did that, it resulted in 128 R, 114 RBI, 9 SB, and .422/.627
4.13 Josh Hader, RP, MIL
There were a bunch of people who stood out to me here, but I almost always prioritize elite closers. Hader has a career 15.3 K/9 with a 2.54/0.86 line. Even his "disappointing" 2020 was 3.79/0.95 with a 14.7 K/9 (and a 35 SV pace).
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| | | 34 | Da Bomb
Donor
ID: 487112814
Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 18:33
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4.03 Tim Anderson, SS, CWS
He's usually the type of player I avoid in this format due to his low walk rate, thus needing a high batting average to maintain a respectable OBP. I was skeptical after his 2019 .335/.357/.508 line but he followed that up last year with .322/.357/.529. Plus this pick is also about compiling the increasingly hard to come by SB category where 15-20 can be expected at his MI position.
5.14 Tyler Glasnow, SP, TB
Just a few SPs have been selected since my last pick so I see some value going this route. Glasnow has been great for TB when healthy with a 3.32 ERA 1.04 WHIP and 12 K/9 over his 3 years there.
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| | | 35 | youngroman
ID: 515013
Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 19:04
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4.05 Blake Snell, SP, SD
My plan for this draft was to get 2 top10 starting pitchers. Did not achieve that but Snell is not that far off. It was my own decision to not pick a pitcher in the 3rd because after more research the pitchers from 9 to 15 are too close.
as with any pitcher at this point: we are still talking about more than 1K per inning. a sub-3.50 ERA and sub-1.20 WHIP. I am certain that this kind of production won't be there when I am up again.
I now have a solid pitching foundation, to focus on hitting with my next few picks.
5.12 Auston Meadows, OF, TB
there is 1 pitcher left that I considered for 4.05 (Glasnow). I thought about taking him, but that would have cost me serious hitting value. Maybe at 6.05
I looked at lots of hitters that have an ADP of 80 or lower. Did not like many of them. too many question marks due to a bad 2020 season, a too good 2020 season that looks not sustainable or uncertain playing time due to a new team / position. went with a pick that that is still young, was not good last year due to Covid and hopefully bounces back to 2019 levels this season. It doesn't hurt that he is able to get double digit steals, which sealed the deal over players like Blackmon or Olson
6.05 Charlie Blackmon, OF, COL
with 2 good pitchers on my team I can continue picking hitters. I don't care which position they play, I am simply interested which kind of stats fit my team the best. Blackmon is better than average everywhere except SB where he is only average.
other players I considered were Nelson Cruz (picked at 6.03) and Matt Olson
note after my pick: did not expect the closer run to start right after my pick. If I would have known, I doubt that I would have taken one with this pick.
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| | | 36 | mmikulka
ID: 4211332822
Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 19:15
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5.04 Randy Arozarena, OF, TB
For this queue, I debated whether to prioritize Arozarena or Aroldis Chapman: in spite of my love for elite RP and disinclination to take OF in the early rounds, I went with Arozarena.
As he showed in the playoffs, his upside is enormous: of course, the success has occurred over a small sample size (though without an inflated BABIP). If he regresses, Arozarena should still be a solid source of SB and R/RBI, but it's hard to look at his MLB results so far and not get excited about the potential for a monster season.
6.13 Craig Kimbrel, RP, CHC
Stuck with another bedtime queue (I hope our draft pace changes soon), I made a list of 5 relievers: Rosenthal, Jansen, Kimbrel, Yates, Anderson. I ended up with Kimbrel: hopefully he continues to pitch the way he did in the last 3/4 of the 2020 season rather than how he did in 2019 and the first few games of last year. It's not as stable of a situation as I'd like for RP #12, but Kimbrel has gotten saves in 10 consecutive seasons and I like his perennially-high K rate and top-5 RP upside.
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| | | 37 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 19:24
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6.12 Kirby Yates RP Tor
The closer run is on. Since my last pick 5.05, when only 2 closers were taken, 10 have now been. This is where I projected I'd be grabbing one, but hoped a few more would be around. I really do not like the idea of relying on chasing saves all year and want at least one RP that can hopefully be plug-play-walkaway. Pre-draft, I had a list of 7 closers I'd like queued in this slot. (If the trend continues 3 of them will no doubt suck this year.. but which ones?). Yates was not in that initial list. Figured I had a chance for Pressley or Hand here when setting the queue. Nope. So I added 3 to my queue... Yates, Jenson, and Kimbrel. I put both ahead of he more talented Kimbrel just on likelihood to stay in the role, and Yates ahead of Jenson only because my team already had 3 Dodgers in 5 picks and was flipping the queue back and forth, but Jansen went the pick before me making this internal debate moot.
So Yates was a stellar closer for the Padres before derailing in 2020 and eventually needing elbow surgery. He's still being eased back into getting opening day ready, but once at full strength should be the every day 9th inning guy for the Toronto, I mean Buffalo, I mean Dunedin Blue Jays. He really does not have a MR looming to swipe in on his role at the first hiccup, so is hopefully in line for 30-40 saves in a full season at the back of the pen, he has the high K rate low WHIP/ERA expectations as the top relievers in the game. He has an incentive laden contract for appearances in 2021, so we are both hoping for a solid year. If we take last year out of the picture and call it a one-off, this is a bargain.
Of course this is why we call these rationales - notice how I can sell the 10th closer my list as a huge pickup :)
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| | | 38 | Nerfherders
ID: 56261418
Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 20:33
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3.10 Pete Alonso, 1B NYM
I like this pick as Alonso has great power and upside, and he also plays a surprisingly thin position. There is a chance he could actually get better, which is crazy to think about.
4.07 Michael Conforto, OF NYM
Continuing the Mets trend, I was still going after best available hitter here, and Conforto was the guy. He's surprisingly consistent, despite all the turmoil the Mets seem to go through year after year.
5.10 Aroldis Chapman, RP NYY
My target for the 5th round even before the draft started. I figured Hendricks and Hader would go 1-2 before the 5th, and Chapman would be sitting there waving at me. Sure enough! This is an even more important pick this year, as there's maybe only 8-10 for-sure got-the-job closers going into this draft.
6.07 Keston Hiura, 2B MIL
I was still looking for best available hitter here, but dropped down a few spots to get a position of need. I was actually a little surprised to still see Hiura here considering his position and upside. I love this pick.
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| | | 39 | Graydog
ID: 521432422
Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 21:04
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4.06 JP Realmuto - C - PHI
I often grab a catcher early in RIBC as it fits well with my overall strategy. Realmuto is projected to be far and away the best at the scarcest position. Counting stats should be excellent with the lineup around him and 8 to 10 bags is nothing to sneeze at from catcher.
5.11 Nick Castellanos - OF - CIN
I wanted a hitter with a safe floor at this point. Castellanos fits the bill. He should provide solid 4 category production without any of the 4 being elite.
6.06 Brad Hand - RP - WAS
I was very happy to get Hand here in the middle of a closer run. I had him 4th on my RP rankings and I get him at the 7th RP off the board.
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| | | 40 | mailedfoot
ID: 15118199
Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 21:16
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5.09 Jose Altuve, 2B, HOU
Similar to my last pick, Altuve is another rebound candidate for me. He wasn’t very good in the 60-game season but came alive in the playoffs. I’m hoping the projection systems are right and, if so, I’ll have a .345/.450 line with 160 R/RBIs and 10-12 steals.
6.08 Ryan Pressly, RP, HOU
It becomes obvious that I need to act here if I want to assure myself of one of the better closers. I kicked around both Pressly and Rosenthal, finally going with Pressly as he seems to be projected for slightly better stats and Rosenthal is currently dealing with a groin issue.
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| | | 41 | kdl212
ID: 17825210
Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 22:54
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6.09 Trevor Rosenthal, RP, OAK
The closer run always occurs 2 rounds too early in RIBC, when there are still many reliable bats on the board. When my turn came up in the 6th, the run appeared to be on, and it looked like at least 4 managers were likely to join in before I picked again. I wasn't excited about what that would leave me picking from if I waited until round 7, so I dove in. As always, it was reluctantly.
I've had pretty good luck drafting an elite closer in RIBC without being a first mover. I've gotten top 3 production out of Kimbrel (2017), Yates (2019), and Diaz (2020) with each selection being the 10th RP drafted. I'm hoping the trend continues this year with Rosenthal as the 9th RP selected. His strikeout rate and ratios were insane last year. I'll take some regression and still be pleased.
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| | | 42 | holt
ID: 491153264
Tue, Mar 16, 2021, 02:58
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5.16 Iglesias, Raisel RP
You can draft closers in early rounds like this and still get totally screwed, but waiting to draft them 5 rounds later almost guarantees you get screwed. As much as I'd like to improve my hitting here, I'm going to do myself a favor, bite the bullet, and lessen the chances that I have to do the daily closer research thing all season long. I'd rather finish top 4 in saves and not 11th or 14th so here we go.
6.01 Baez, Javier SS CHC
This may be the worst draft pick I've ever made. Was packing up from a camping trip, screwed up my Iglesias pick on my phone and had to get Guru help, and was just trying to blast this pick out to get the draft moving again. The first 3 or 4 players I tried to get were gone so I looked at fantasy pros and just saw Baez and went with it. I hate the Cubs. I don't like Baez. I forgot how terrible he was last year and that his OBP is so bad. I really hate this pick so perhaps it will turn out to be a good one. Usually the picks that I think are the best end up in disaster.
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| | | 43 | maspero
ID: 5815687
Tue, Mar 16, 2021, 05:23
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Pick 7 – I could have picked sixth or seventh. I had 6 hitters in mind, with De Grom as fallback plan in case the 6 hitters were gone at 7. So I went for the seventh slot, pretty sure De Grom would go earlier.
1.07 Jacob De Grom, SP, NYM
Here it is my fallback plan. After the six batters had gone, and wishing at this point to have the six slot, I decided to go for the guy considered the best pitcher (for Fangraphs auction values, by a landslide). Never taken a pitcher in the first round, but happy not to pick the no.1 pitcher of my staff in the 2 or 3 later rounds with pitchers who I trusted to a certain extent.
2.10 Adalberto Mondesi, SS, KC
I usually hate monocategory players, but at this point, surprised but the low number of pitcher taken, I could not pass the base stealing ability of Mondesi. And if September would continue on, could be not just steals for my guy.
3.07 Eloy Jimenez, OF, CWS
Still waiting for a nonexistent SP run, and without lots of players I expected to find here, I went for the upside of a young OF who could breakout and pay dividends, from the slugging side, at the 39 slot.
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| | | 44 | Toral
ID: 9541311
Tue, Mar 16, 2021, 08:48
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4.14 Luke Voit, 1B, NYY
Time for a power bat to drive in Biggio and Tatis on my fictional team. Two projections for Voit: .353/.539 and .368/.524 with between 35 and 40 HR and 95-105 RBI. I'll take any combination thereof. At 30 he's at an age where many players take their first big slide down the aging cliff, but he's 3 years younger than the alternate choice at 1B. The sports networks up here force feed the Yankees to us so it'ss be easy to keep track of his exploits. (Yesterday John Sterling and Michael Kay did a TV broadcast together. It's melancholy that I remember when Sterling was “the new Yankee announcer”.)
Also considered: Zen's picks, Goldschmidt (4.15) and Maeda (5.02) (whom I just knew Zen was going to take after he regretted letting him slip to me in AAA last year.)
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| | | 45 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Tue, Mar 16, 2021, 11:04
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7.05 Carlos Carrasco SP NYM
No one taking starting pitching? We went from picks 5.14 - 7.03 without seeing a SP go off the board - 22 picks. Four teams have yet to draft any. Fine by me. Maybe everyone is waiting as the next few top available here are all dealing with soreness type issues, maybe it is just like me more wanting to get straight with hitters that are available and deal with the 6th round closer run.
I started having Carrasco at the top of my SP board at the start of round round 4, with Lamet, Gray, and Maeda right after. Three of those four still here in round 7, with Lamet going a few picks ago. I love Carrasco's strikeout rate among those remaining... I am getting a guy here who should near 200 K at more than 1 per inning. Carlos moving to the Mets should help him maintain his consistent year-to-year, ERA hovering around 3.2 (2.9 last season), and he should deliver a WHIP in the 1.15 range. I can no longer draft looking at projected wins which become a crap shoot more year by year.. but put him down for 10+.
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| | | 46 | Toral
ID: 9541311
Tue, Mar 16, 2021, 11:04
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5.03 Trent Grisham, OF, SD
Time for an outfielder, and here I broke my own self-imposed rule. That's the Anthony Rendon Rule, which states that if a player has an injury that is lingering or recurring, do not accept the bland assurances of the team that “he should be fine by Opening Day”. Despite Grisham's hamstring strain, I chose him because of his blend of speed and power. At 24 that makes for the possibility for a 25-homer, 25-steal season.
Also considered: Randy Arozarena, drafted next. Three things concerned me about him: the domestic violence incident, the Rays' quick propensity to platoon, and the fact that as a 26-year-old non-prospect who played way over his head last season, the Ed Charles Rule states that's he's a perfect candidate for a Sophomore Slump.
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| | | 47 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Tue, Mar 16, 2021, 11:28
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6.15.95 Marcus Semien, SS, Blue Jays
After taking Maeda, I have some bats in mind for my 6th pick. With 29 players to be taken before my chance, I know most of them will be gone but it can be fun to dream. Sure enough, all but Stanton and Teoscar are gone as I ready for bed. I love Zhahncarlo and that amazing home run swat of his. I feel that we are brethren, the gorilla is our spirit animal. Is he undervalued? Has his DH-only status and injury history dragged him down too much?
I love me some Teoscar. I believed he was very undervalued last season and I was right, further believe that his forecasts are not giving him his proper due. Could I be coming down with a case of confirmation bias? Do I want to take another outfielder in the top 100 picks?
We have arrived at the Closer Run portion of the draft. I did not foresee there being a closer run in 2021 but here we are. Raisel Iglesias is the 80th player off the board. In my opinion, he’s not that good of a baseball player. There are fewer high quality, reliable closers in the Bigs this year. This causes some players to add significant value to the top closers. I am not willing to do so and have accepted the fact that I will end up with one or more of the lower valued closers. I am zigging while y’all are Zaging and we all know that the Zags never win anything other than their puny league title. I have not addressed my middle infield and if there are any rock ribbed truths about RIBC it is that WE LOVE and overvalue our middle infielders.
Fifty years from now when our grandchildren discuss fantasy baseball around the campfire, they will speak of this Golden Age of Shortstops with the reverence the ancient Greeks spoke of the Titans or Tolkien spoke of the first men who arrived by ship from the West. Marcus will not be one of the names spoken. This makes his contributions unappreciated and I will take advantage of that. Solidly in the 2020 didn’t happen camp, he has toiled in Oakland’s god forsaken stadium for years yet was able to rattle off a .285/.369/.522 123/92/10 season in 2019 good for a .373 wOBA 138 wRC+. He will be the Blue Jays’ starting second baseman and will bat 2nd or 3rd in a very strong lineup. He will earn second base eligibility in April allowing me to draft either 2nd or SS for my middle infielder and having two options for each spot. I predict that he will outperform his projections in each category because he has had a walk rate in double digits the past two years, he moved from one of the worst stadiums for power to one of the best, his lineup spot should garner him more counting stats and he has been very steady at 10 or 11 steals per year; he went from a team that eschews basepath larceny to one that encourages sticky fingers.
But three of the top starting pitchers are still out there, players I considered taking over Maeda. Should I not grab Carrasco or Ryu or Stras and go forth this 2021 season with a three headed SP hydra? No, I want to take the last, best shortstop and see if the chatter about Carrasco’s sore elbow scares everyone away leaving him for me at #127. It won’t.
7.02.98 Mike Moustakas, 2nd, Reds
I start having Stanton hallucinations as I wait for Fosten to take two bats around the turn. Whatever it is that Fosten put into his tea has created hallucinations that I have only dreamed of. It would take a good 8 ounces of pure DMT to create a universe where Wander Franco gets picked in the top 100 of a redraft league. Does he plan on kidnapping the Rays’ current starting shortstop? Stanton and Franco may combine for one full season of plate appearances, but odds say they won’t.
I like Moose at this point in the draft because he is one of the few slugging second basemen with a prime lineup spot to provide plenty of RBI, similar to Max Muncy. I’m pretty short on steals so I will have to really do well in the OPS categories, Moose should be +800 with a decent shot at 850. I now feel I have taken at top 10 shortstop and second baseman and can wait until later for a chance at a sleeper for my MI slot.
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| | | 48 | Da Bomb
Donor
ID: 487112814
Tue, Mar 16, 2021, 12:34
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6.03 Nelson Cruz, DH, MIN
Cruz has a 1.020 OPS over the past 2 seasons since arriving in Minnesota. If he were 10 years younger and played a position that could be first round worthy. Alas, he is UTIL only (though this helps keep him in the lineup) and a decline has to start at some point, just hopefully not quite yet.
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| | | 50 | mmikulka
ID: 4211332822
Tue, Mar 16, 2021, 14:48
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7.04 Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP, LAA
I can see a scenario where Ohtani finishes as a top-10 player. I can see a scenario where he gets hurt again and I drop him by midseason. I'm counting on solid batting (Steamer predicts .833 OPS and 13 SB) and treating his pitching with caution initially. Of course, I'm drafting him primarily for the 2-way upside / fun.
If Ohtani pitches well and stays generally healthy:
1) he will be a whole lot of fun to have on my team
2) he will have far more opportunities to accrue stats/value than any other MLB player
In 2019, the 50 best batters (by WAR) averaged 637 PA
In 2019, the 50 best SPs (by WAR) averaged 187 IP
Steamer has Ohtani projected for 492 PA and 97 IP: that projected playing time maps out to the equivalent of 822 PA or 241.1 IP.
By now, it's clear that he has major injury concerns, but this factors some of that in and projects Ohtani to only make 18 starts (assumes he will miss 22% of the season if he starts once per week).
8.13 Zack Greinke, SP, HOU
This is actually pretty early for me to draft a SP compared to recent years, but I got an ace to lead my staff!! What else would you call the future-hall-of-fame opening day starter for the team with the best record in the American League over the past 4 years? What's that, you say he's 53 years old and coming off a 4+ ERA?
Greinke's durability is a big plus (particularly this year), with an average of 201.1 IP per year and seemingly no missed starts since 2016. Most of the projections have him in the 4.00/1.20 area, but I have higher hopes.
Last year, Greinke's ERA was 4.03 but his FIP was 2.80: his BABIP was the worst since 2005, and his strand rate was the worst since 2010. Greinke's worst ERA/WHIP from 2017-2019 was 3.21/1.08, and while that might be too much to ask for, something in between like 3.60/1.15 seems realistic to me.
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| | | 51 | Nerfherders
ID: 56261418
Tue, Mar 16, 2021, 16:39
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7.10 Tommy Pham, OF SDP
I considered drafting Pham in the 4th and 6th rounds, and couldn't hold off anymore, considering his all-around game and SB potential. He's probably scared off some since he was literally stabbed in the back, but he's been playing every day this spring, and seems to be healthy.
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| | | 52 | Toral
ID: 9541311
Tue, Mar 16, 2021, 17:38
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6.14 Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pit
Here I opt for youth and promise. Can't expect him to duplicate his BABIP, but had a better barrel rate than Trout, Voit or Cruz. Excellent defence will keep him in the lineup whenever possible. Hitting the snot out of the ball in spring training. Capable of 20 HR and double-digit stolen bases.
This is the third son of a former major leaguer that I have chosen.
Also considered: Yoan Moncada (7.12). Just after I picked, I saw a site making the Bold Prediction that Moncada would be the American League MVP. I wonder if that would have changed my mind.
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| | | 53 | youngroman
ID: 515013
Tue, Mar 16, 2021, 19:50
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7.12 Yoan Moncada, 3B, CWS
I continue picking hitters that are average or better in all categories to avoid digging a hole early on that I can't get out later in the draft. Moncada can be way better than this pick, but he can also be way worse. I hope for the former.
I also considered Alex Verdugo, Wil Myers and Eddie Rosario with this pick. all potential options for my 8.05
never thought about picking whoever is next in line in the closer sweepstakes. at worst I need to take some gambles there to get into the middle of the pack. I never intend to be top of the class in saves.
8.05 Alex Verdugo, OF, BOS
not yet time to go for a closer.
I already considered Verdugo with my last pick. He is still out there so I took a decision between him and 1B-eligible Wil Myers. In the end I settled for Verdugo for unknown reasons.
disclosure: no coin or dice was harmed in coming up with that decision, but I would not rule out a crazy Excel-formula
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| | | 54 | kdl212
ID: 17825210
Tue, Mar 16, 2021, 20:03
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7.08 Dansby Swanson, SS, ATL
When Rhys Hoskins didn't make it to me, I turned to middle infield. Two former #1s were at the top of my list: Swanson and Correa. I'm anti-cheaters, and wasn't surprised so many Astros struggled in 2020 when they didn't know what pitches were coming. That, and the injury history, moved me off Correa.
All the projection systems hate Swanson, expecting a step back. But I'm just not buying it - he's got the pedigree, he's 27, and he'll be hitting 5th or 6th in a lineup that scores tons of runs. I'm not expecting anything huge, but a 350/460 repeat of last year with with a bunch of runs and RBIs and 10 steals is all I want. If he decides to take another step forward, I'll be delighted.
This is the most painful portion of the draft every year - from here to round 10. The opportunity cost of each draft pick seems huge: you get one guy, and lose out on 10 others you were hoping to roster. The opportunity cost of Swanson was devastating for me - I wanted another high OBP slugger, but each of Donaldson, Gallo, Dom Smith, and Justin Turner disappeared before I drafted again. On top of that, Yas, Myers, and Happ all got picked.
And there's a ton of starting pitching value still on the board. Zac Gallen in round 4 continues to haunt this roster.
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| | | 55 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Tue, Mar 16, 2021, 22:00
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8.12 Sonny Gray SP Cin
22 SP taken out of 123 picks. Seems low. There are as many pitching roto points up for grab as hitting.. right? I have a whole list of SP that I consider 'values' in round 8... of course everything is relative, most of my hitters are rated 'reach' right now.. I should probably draft based on current availabily instead but... lets grab another decent one before everyone is competing for the same pool. I feel like I see a couple stand out above the others among the available pitching, I queued Gray followed by Berrios on autopic when I went to sleep. Woke up to a morning both sunny and gray, and see Sonny Gray is now on my team (Sorry for that, just seeing if anyone actually read these).
Sonny was absolute garbage as a Yankee. It was ugly in the stands when the whole city turns against a guy, bad outing after bad outing. But with the Reds, he is back to what we knew he was. He is a high strikeout guy, maybe the last available who has a K/9 over 10 and should amass 200 K. His WHIP and ERA expectations are decent. As the Reds 'ace' in a lesser division hoping for 10 wins.
Sure there are really good pitching options to build your staff late in the draft, and always a few spot starters in the free agent pool to take flyers on, but I also remember the nightmare I had streaming pitchers late last season to make sure I caught up with IP with the crowd... I much rather have three solid SP from the top of the draft to maybe keep me from streaming too much lesser SP at the end and risking ratios points to try to gain strikeout points.
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| | | 56 | mailedfoot
ID: 15118199
Tue, Mar 16, 2021, 22:15
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7.09 Kris Bryant, 3B, CHC
Bryant slots in at 3B and adds to my growing roster of rebound candidates. After a sub-par 2020, I’m looking for a .355/.460 line with 170 R/RBIs which would be more in line with his pre-2020 history. He looks to be one of the best values available now and fills an open roster spot. There is some speculation he could get time in the outfield which would add a little needed flexibility.
8.08 Ian Happ, OF CHC
Happ had a solid 2020 and was also good in limited action during 2019, so I am optimistic he is finally realizing his potential and hoping can take another step forward this year. Projections vary but I am looking for at least a .345/.475 line and feel like he can slug more than that. He’s slated to hit lead off so that would limit his RBIs somewhat but maybe he can make up for it with runs and poaching a few extra bags.
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| | | 57 | Toral
ID: 9541311
Wed, Mar 17, 2021, 08:20
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7.03 Dinelson Lamet, SP, S.D.
Time to look for a solid SP2 now. I'm not expecting anything like his 2.09 ERA and .855 WHIP last year, particularly since he hasn't been pitching in live games yet. According to Sports Edge (formerly known as Rotoworld) “Lamet has serious injury risk, but offers tremendous upside because of his ability to miss bats and pitching behind what should be one of the best teams in baseball “ Let's be optimistic and project 11 wins, a 3.50 ERA, and 200 K.
Also considered: Hyun-Jin Ryu (8.03), Lamet's stablemate Chris Paddack (8.15), Lance Lynn (7.07) and Carlos Carrasco (7.05)
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| | | 58 | Toral
ID: 9541311
Wed, Mar 17, 2021, 08:33
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8.14 Will Smith, RP, Atl
Time to dip a tentative toe into the closer pool. I missed the run of top closers, but wasn't worrying over it, perhaps overly inspired by Scott White's winning Tout Wars last year without drafting a single closer, and his not drafting a closer again this year. Unfortunately I did not read the whole story and see that their league does pickups via FAAB$. It's not like this league, where I remember a coupla years ago sitting watching a game with my laptop beside me, with a team with an open closer job, and springing to pick him up as soon as the announcer said “Doe is warming up in the bullpen”.
Atlanta is a good team, and there should be a lot of saves available to pick up. I'm writing off 2020 as a COVID year. He is listed by Closer Monkey in a group of 5 pitchers one of whom should break out this year and be a top 5 closer.
Also considered: I'm not telling you.
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| | | 59 | s R
ID: 5970131
Wed, Mar 17, 2021, 08:36
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5.13 Bell, Josh - WAS - 1B
Another boom-or-bust pick after Martinez.
A year ago, Bell had just hit 37 homers with a .936 OPS and was regarded as one of the studs at his position and he has spent the offseason working with the same hitting coach who helped him prior to his 2019 breakout.
6.04 Bohm, Alex - PHI - 1B/3B
Bohm flashed late in 2020, putting him front and center on my radar this season. His approach grades well while also offering underlying speed. This year he may very well hit second in Philadelphia’s lineup.
7.13 Gallo, Joey - TEX - OF
Not targeted but has been at the top of my list for a long time.
He needs to be near the league leaders in homers and RBI in order to be a useful fantasy player.
8.04 Correa, Carlos - HOU - SS
In 13 playoff games last season, Correa hit .362 with six home runs, 17 RBI, and a 1.221 OPS. The six home runs were more than he hit in 58 regular season games. This was just a reminder of his upside. Correa has had a .926 OPS or better in two of the last four seasons. On top of everything, he's 26 years old and is entering a contract year.
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| | | 60 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Wed, Mar 17, 2021, 09:15
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8.15.127 Chris Paddack, SP, Slam Diego
Toral invoked The Process® when he took Cavan Biggio. I agree, you must trust your process. I view the Biggio pick as his Nerlens Noel and his Ke’Bryan Hayes as his Markelle Fultz. Best of luck with that. Josh Bell seemed like a stretch, I feel like he could have been picked a couple of rounds later. I feel that JeffG got an absolute steal at 101 with the Carlos Carrasco pick. I’m glad that Ohtani was taken at 100, that’s a fair price for his volatility, huge up and downsides. I really like the team mailedfoot has put together. He took a gamble on Yordan and his 80 year old knees, if his Herculean strength overcomes his tempestuous joints, he has built a monster. Jrdoolit takes Tommy Pham who I believe will have a great bounceback season. He also takes the Ginger at the hot corner Justin Turner. I have had Turner in multiple leagues for the past four season, I think he is an excellent hitter with a crazy high OBP and unappreciated slugger. But I will tell you what, I was LIVID when I learned that he exposed his teammates, staff and their families when he went back onto the field after learning he had COVID 19. If I was a Dodger teammate, the first thing I would have done is popped him in the face this Spring Training. Selfish mother@%&#&!!! Maybe I’m alone in this but to me the notion that pitchers are beaning Alex Bregman because his team stole signs yet no one really is all that upset that Turner threatened stadium security with violence, went onto the field and removed his mask exposing everyone there to a potentially deadly disease is ridiculous. MLB didn’t punish him. Expect other players to behave just as poorly because of that. I’d say to beware of karmic retribution but hell, I think his red hair is punishment enough for one lifetime. YR’s Yoan Moncada was a great pick as I feel he slipped too much. Da Bomb Squad is putting together an exciting team. His three headed monster of Kershaw, Glasnow and Strasburg is the type of high variance, sky high upside, that can vault a team onto the podium. He grabbed Teoscar at #110 and I expect him to be profitable. Looking at the Grid as the draft approaches the turn I see that Guru has not taken a SP yet. I know that is normal for him but I think to myself that he will end up regretting it in the end. When I see him take The Grandson at 111, I do raise my eyebrows a bit as I have maybe eight or nine other outfielders ahead of him. Then he takes Huyin-jin Ryu at #114 and I’m shaking my fist at the computer, “Damn it”, that was a great pick, a third or fourth round talent in the eighth. There are a lot of players taken from my queue at this point, Strasburg, Correa, Wil Myers, Hendricks. I was not in the closer market but Will Smith the Arm was a good value for Toral.
Chris Paddock is the forgotten Padre as the team has added three new starters for 2021. Firmly in the 2020 didn’t happen camp, he relies on two pitches, his 4 seamer and his change. The change is elite and performed well in both 19 and 20. His 4 seamer went from excellent to poor. I did read that the Pads spent some time with Chris this offseason showing him the data regarding the difference between his 19 fastball and 2020 and it sounds like he has understood and bought in the advanced analytics such as spin rate and axis. He’s only 25 with an aged 23 full season of excellent MLB work. I like the Padres a lot and look forward to a great bounceback season.
9.02.130 Michael Brantley, OF, Hou
Brantley is the type of steady, underappreciated four category production that is perennially underrated. He once was considered a health risk but now at the ripe old age of 34 he’s a grinder. He could steal bases if the Astros would just let him. I view him as a long barge full of coal. The design is so simple a four year old could draw it. No one looks twice at a barge as it floats by on it’s way to port. Everyone looks at the flashy yachts driven by the likes of Odell Beckham Jr. or Kayne Wests of the world but when you need coal delivered, you call Michael Brantley and let the flashy yachts go on parade in some lake in Texas and swamp each other. And for those of you reading this who can’t figure out how to use the Auto Pick in this draft, coal in this story is RBI/Runs and OPS.
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| | | 61 | Meatwads
ID: 56216178
Wed, Mar 17, 2021, 09:52
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I took the 6th spot for various reasons. There was a chance one of the top 5 would fall. It would give me an opportunity to take the first ace if I wanted to. And I liked what could be available to me in Rd 2 and 3.
1.06 Trea Turner, SS, WSH
I wanted a well-rounded player in the first round. I was willing to settle on a few fewer RBI for the bump in SB. I feel it is important for my draft style to add speed early. I also tend to be weak at MI. So two birds with one stone. Turner is in his prime and should be among the most valuable roto players. There were safer options available but I didn't feel their floor in SB was high enough to justify.
2.27 Kyle Tucker, OF, HOU
Continuing the early theme of my draft, I selected the well-rounded outfielder for his upside and potential 5-category production. As I previously noted, I came into this draft intending on drafting players capable of across-the-board production. I was unwilling to find myself in the common position of chasing SB in season. There is some risk involved with this selection due to the relatively small sample size compared to other early-round picks. That said when I projected players out using our categories he is borderline Top 10. I considered taking an ace here but felt comfortable waiting.
3.38 Aaron Nola, SP, PHI
One of my objectives was to make sure I didn't fall behind in pitching coming out of the draft. After the top tier of aces, it is debatable who the 4th best pitcher is. I've heard some smart people say they think it's Nola. I always have my hesitations with pitching but feel relatively comfortable that Nola can give me a high floor. I expect him to be among the leaders in IP and K with solid ratios. Just a good foundational piece to begin my pitching staff.
4.59 Corbin Burnes, SP, MIL
Count me in as one of the people who fully believe what Burnes showed us last year. I am very excited to pair him with Nola, as that combination of safe/upside duo is precisely what I was hoping to have this season. I'm expecting a big season from Burnes and won't be surprised if he ends up being my ace. I definitely didn't wait around and let him fall to me. He is my ideal SP2 entering the season. If he lets me down then it's back to the drawing board.
5.70 Starling Marte, OF, MIA
In my pre-draft prep, I had pegged Marte (along with players like Trent Grisham and Randy Arozarena) as prime targets in this area. The well-rounded players capable of helping across the board are already drying up. I was pleased to add Marte's solid production to my other bats. It's not the typical core of hitters I start my teams with, but I think that's the point. I'm trying to win the league. I can't make the same mistakes I always do. I'm filling the holes I know will show up before they become an issue for me.
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| | | 62 | kdl212
ID: 17825210
Wed, Mar 17, 2021, 11:47
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8.09 Victor Robles, OF, WAS
Having realized that I was over-relying on 2020 performance for my early picks, I decided I'd grab someone who was hot garbage in 2020. Robles had a .608 OPS last year - not exactly 8th round material. But he's only 23, should be good for 20 stolen bases, and if the cards fall right, will hit 325/425 while batting lead-off in front of Trea Turner and Juan Soto. If not, I used a top 125 pick on an OF to get empty steals I could get in round 18 from a middle infielder.
Considered a third starter, but I was confident that one of 10 on my list would make it back to me in round 9.
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| | | 63 | kdl212
ID: 17825210
Wed, Mar 17, 2021, 11:57
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9.08 Charlie Morton, SP, ATL
As I guessed, several of the starting pitchers I was interested in made it back to me, including Morton, Gausman, Fried, Musgrove, and Wheeler. Each have their warts but seem likely to make a solid SP3 with the chance of being a top 20 starter. I went with Morton, who's old, but he was third in Cy Young voting in 2019, is moving from the AL East to the DH-less National League, and pitching for a team that should give him ample run support. With 3 starters, I can now turn my attention to rounding out my hitting core.
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| | | 64 | Graydog
ID: 521432422
Wed, Mar 17, 2021, 14:35
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7.11 Josh Donaldson - 3B - MIN
Hopefully I have drafted the bringer of rain not the man with calf pain!
Super mad I did not take Teoscar Hernandez here. I had him crossed off my list as already drafted or I would have taken him.
Donaldson is still bordering on elite for an OBP league when healthy. I would expect this to continue as the data didn't show any sign of change last year. Having an IL slot this year will soften the blow when he gets hurt.
8.06 Wil Myers - OF - SDP
I'm buying that the swing and stance change last year finally unlocked Myers' potential that has been chased for years. He hit the ball harder than ever (91%) with a higher barrels percentage (46%). It is looking like he is projected to bat 6th which isn't great for counting stats but might allow him to steal more often. I liked him here because of the upside of last year but the security of a safe floor (career OBP 330 and SLG 450).
9.11 Dylan Moore - 2B - SEA
Moore exploded unexpectedly onto the scene last year to a tune of 12 bags, OBP 350 and SLG 500. I wanted to secure some bags and he seems like he will provide at least 20 as he loves to run and so do the M's. I'm not optimistic his power numbers will hold up but I think there is more a chance his SLG is over 430 then many of the speedsters to follow.
10.06 Alex Colome - RP - MIN
I felt like he had slipped a bit to be available here so I grabbed him. I am however more interested in ratios that strikeouts so that may have me bump him higher than others. Hopefully he provides great WHIP numbers for me like he has the last 2 years. He is in line for at least a timeshare of closing duties.
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| | | 65 | holt
ID: 491153264
Wed, Mar 17, 2021, 16:01
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7.16 Anderson, Nick RP TAM
Picking up some more saves. Hopefully he gets the majority of saves and Tampa doesn't get too bizarre with his usage. His K/9 and ratios rank right up near the top.
8.01 Smith, Dominic 1B NYM
Isn't it strange how the 1B position is in MLB these days? His bat should keep him in the lineup as long as he doesn't butcher LF too much. The 1B ranks were getting thin and I need to keep working on my OBP after drafting a Cub earlier. Not super stoked with this pick but felt like it made sense for squad.
9.16 Luzardo, Jesus SP OAK
Lot of upside for Luzardo. He's pushing close to 100mph in spring training and he has a new pitch he calls the Turkey Sub, a 60's mph breaking ball that he got 3 K's with in his last outing (4IP, 0 H, 5K). I think he'll be great as long as he can stay on the field.
10.01 Nimmo, Brandon OF NYM
Three Mets hitters on my team already? What the hell? Huge fan of Nimmo in this format, figured he would be gone by pick 176 so I'd need to take him at 145 or do without. His slash last year was .280 .404 .484 which isn't too much of a stretch from his career numbers. Should probably add a few steals to help things along.
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| | | 66 | Nerfherders
ID: 56261418
Wed, Mar 17, 2021, 18:15
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8.07 Justin Turner, 3B LAD
I wanted a 3B here and was struggling to find anyone better than Turner. I'm not a big fan of Turner, but he generally does better in an OPS league than a HR league. The only question is how many games he'll play - I may have to have a 3B on the bench.
9.10 Max Fried, SP ATL
The ace of the Braves last year - basically the entire rotation for most of the season - fell this far in the draft? Granted, his projections aren't as kind as his results in 2020, but I feel like he should at least outperform the projections, if not match what he did last year. Also, being a Braves fan, he's probably my favorite pitcher to watch.
10.07 Jorge Soler, UT KC
This pick stopped me dead in my tracks. You can see about an hour's difference between the pick before and mine - all of that was me trying to figure out who to take. My plan was to take one of the all-around multi-postion MI's - Edman, Solak, or Moore. All take between my last pick and this one. So I didnt know what to do. I didn't like the RP at this point. I didn't like the remaining MI either. So I went with best available hitter, which was Soler. I'm hoping he gets ten games at OF in the first couple months so I can move him out of UT.
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| | | 67 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Wed, Mar 17, 2021, 18:51
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9.05 Will Smith, C, LAD
(I had to hold back this Rationale because I talk about players that were not drafted until 12-10 and 12-02).
While looking at my top choices for hitters by position, I noticed I had a top-3 'tier-2' catchers list (way after Realmuto) still to consider. Compared to my other hitting choices available, taking a backstop seemed like the right move here. So lucky I have mmikulka's 90 minute autopick delay to (1) think about this choice and (2) read everyone's rationales but especially Seattle Zen's who I believe a NY Times reviewer would call "entertaining and enjoyable with just the right amount of snark".
I started going back on do I want will Will Smith or Sal Perez, or maybe even Willson Contreras... Perez will get much more playing time than Smith, a 30 game difference in projections (Darn-it, I miss the NL DH), but Perez struggles with OBP. The difference could be 20 R and 20 RBI in Perez' favor if the projections I am seeing play out but a 60 point difference in OBP. To me, Perez' more playing time hurts the ratios even more. Decision made... I am going with Smith because of that. Plus I think there is a higher ceiling with Smith. Of course if Smith was taken I'd take Sal no problem. But I may have another dilemma because of the possible low PT 90 - games played means 72 not - if I get behind significantly with catcher games played I could add a second catcher to my bench to play when Will has an off day. We do have an extra bench slot this season.
Out of five hitters on my team, I now have three Dodgers - the number 1, 4, and 5 hitters in the expected lineup.
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| | | 68 | mmikulka
ID: 4211332822
Wed, Mar 17, 2021, 19:03
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9.04 Joey Votto, 1B, CIN
It feels like I consider Votto every year, but I've only drafted him 3 times. The general perception seems to be that Votto is washed up: maybe he is, but he had a power resurgence in the 2nd half of last year and looked great in Spring Training (before getting COVID, of course). Also, it's hard to ignore a 16% career BB percentage in the 9th round.
10.13 CJ Cron, 1B, COL
This was risky: I debated going elsewhere with this pick, but the upside seemed too big. Cron is only signed to a minor league contract, and while he appears to be the leading contender for the 1B opening, the Rockies always seem to choose the wrong person.
Good ol' Coors Field, though. Since 2018, Cron has a .234 ISO: assuming he does get the job, his SLG could be spectacular. ZiPS is projecting a .540 SLG (10th overall, tied w/ Tatis). Cron's OBP has been mediocre at best, but that pairs well with my Votto pick. Cron would likely be hitting towards the middle of the lineup, too. Please don't mess this up, Bud Black!
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| | | 69 | mailedfoot
ID: 15118199
Wed, Mar 17, 2021, 19:14
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9.09 Kevin Gausman, SP, SF
Was all set to take Morton here but no…I didn’t have a back up plan and scrambled around looking at other starters and various hitting options. The more I looked, the more undecided I became and finally went with Gausman, who was quite good last year (almost 12 K/9 with a 3.09 FIP). Hoping for more of the same.
10.08 Byron Buxton, OF, MIN
Still needing OFs and help with steals, I take Buxton. Maybe this will be the year he puts it all together though I am not overly optimistic. He will be a drag on OBP but should provide some power, steals, and counting stats in any event.
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| | | 70 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Wed, Mar 17, 2021, 19:20
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10.12 Carlos Santana 1B KC
At 35, on the tail end of a decent career, but I am hoping for a little bounce back from one of his best seasons just two years ago. I figure he is somewhere between 2019 slash line .281/.397/.515 and last season's dreadful .199/.349/.350. Carlos has a real good walk rate and slotted in the heart of KCs order for run prodction. But here is another player on my roster where I am throwing away steals... seems to be my usual draft strategy in the first half of drafts.
I chose Santana here because he is 1B where I have a need and like him over the other drop off of 1B choices later, over outfielders Schwarber, McCutchen, Mancini, Kepler, Frazier but also considered some random 74th tier closers here as well as MI Madrigal for steals. I felt like he should make it back to me in 9 picks (he did). Also second-guessing why I jumped on a catcher last round 22 picks ago when no one else seems to acknowledging the position.
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| | | 71 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Wed, Mar 17, 2021, 21:54
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11.05 Nick Madrigal 2B CWS
Was also looking at Trey Mancini here plus 3 other OF, but filling in my need for someone who will compile steals, and can fill a middle infield slot, hopefully without too much damage to the SLG and RBI.
Nick is projected to maybe be a .300 hitter this year (.360+ OBP) - and "experts" and algorithms are never wrong, right? He is a help for OBP and perhaps runs.. but the real hope is looking in the neighborhood of 20+ steals. I am avoiding all the red flags about his low exit velo off the bat, his elbow and thumb issues this spring, and now also reading that some scouts feel that maybe he's not as effective a base stealer as we hope. But all that "Upside" right?
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| | | 72 | mmikulka
ID: 4211332822
Wed, Mar 17, 2021, 23:17
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11.04 Chris Taylor, SS/2B/OF, LAD
I normally try to draft MI during the first few rounds. This year it felt like they were going really fast, so here I am taking my first MI in the 11th.
The projections don't particularly like Taylor (they never have), but he has been good 4 years in a row. He draws walks, his ISO has hovered around .200, and he has picked up a slightly-above-average number of SB. The triple eligibility is always a bonus. He will probably bat 7th or 8th, but its the Dodgers so his R/RBI totals should still be fine.
12.13 Yasmani Grandal, C, CWS
A sign of how weak and unreliable catchers are for fantasy baseball: I was able to get my highest-rated C with pick #189.
Among catchers over the past 3 years, Grandal is 1st in starts and plate appearances. He has a 14% walk rate. He will likely be batting 3rd in a strong lineup. He has a .200+ ISO. He isn't anything to get overly excited about, but he is about all I can ask for from a C these days.
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| | | 73 | Da Bomb
Donor
ID: 487112814
Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 01:31
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7.14 Teoscar Hernandez, OF, TOR
Hernandez broke out with a .919 OPS last season and chipped in a near 20 SB full season pace. His BB rate leaves something to be desired, but if he matches last year’s 49.2% hard hit rate his batting average should stay high. It’s also nice to see him settling into the middle of the potent Jays lineup this Spring.
8.03 Stephen Strasburg, SP, WAS
A couple SP’s value stood out to me at this point and I am rolling the dice with Strasburg as he has shown staff ace ability which would play well for my SP3. Reports are that he is healthy from last year’s hand issue which derailed his season, and now he just needs to clear himself of his current non-throwing related, apparently minor calf injury.
9.14 Andres Gimenez, SS,2B,3B, CLE
I may have reached with this pick, but Gimenez was building recent buzz as the presumed Lindor replacement. “Presumed” maybe should be enough reason to look elsewhere, but he can steal 25-30 bases with a hopefully not too awful OBP/SLG. I had hopes of him hitting 2nd in the lineup after he started there for several Spring games, but the bottom of the order to begin is lately looking more likely. The 3 position flexibility is always useful too.
10.03 Jesse Winker, OF, CIN
I felt the need to re-focus on OBP before too long and Winker excels there, coming off a career best 15.3% BB rate campaign, and combining that with a 49% hard hit rate which helped produce a .932 OPS. His improved production vs LHPs should hopefully keep him playing near everyday at the top of the Reds’ lineup.
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| | | 74 | Toral
ID: 9541311
Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 07:27
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9.03 Ramon Laureano, OF, Oak
This is a case where I write 2020 off. Laureano was playing well until his 4-game suspension when Astros coach Alex Cintron, showing the Astros to be cowards as well as cheaters, instigated a fight and then hid behind his own players. Should be in the lineup whenever healthy because of his defence. Looking for.345/.450 with double-digit steals.
Postscript: 2 hours and 5 minutes after I picked Ramon, it was reported that he was scratched from a Cactus League game due to a pin in his side. After an MRI, his manager said that Laureano was “going to be fine” and should return to games early next week.
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| | | 75 | Toral
ID: 9541311
Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 07:49
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10.14 Zack Wheeler, SP, Phi
I wasn't planning to pick an SP at all with this pick. But while waiting for my exit visa to Portugal -- no, it only seemed like that -- while waiting for my turn to come up, I reviewed my queue and was distinctly unimpressed. Then I noticed that there were 2 SP3 calibre players available and thought it would be nice to firm up that position. It's not clear what kind of pitcher Zack is going to be. I don't expect him to duplicate his 2.92/1.169 of last year, which came bu cutting walks (but also strikeouts.) Tiebreaker over Corbin was that Zack is a much cooler name.
11.03 Patrick Corbin, SP, Was
So long as Corbin's still here, why not pick up an SP4 and take care of SPs except for a sleeper or two much later on? I was leery of Corbin because of his problems with his slider last year until I read in The Athletic that his teammate on both the Nationals and Wheatfarmers, Max Scherzer, is teaching him a cutter and working with him on his changeup. Good to see my team working together.
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| | | 76 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 09:04
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10.15.159 Archie Bradley, RP, Phils
At this point in the of the draft I look at the grid and see that four teams have already taken four pitchers (if you count Ohtani as an arm) while eserl has one starter, graydog has one reliever and Fosten has Julio Urias, whatever that is. Everyone has at least two outfielders except mailfoot with one and holt with zero. Fifteen shortstops off the board and three teams don’t have one yet. Guru took two of the first five second basemen, six teams don’t have one yet. Fourteen relievers taken, Guru, holt and mmikulka have two each, me, Fosten, youngroman, Da Bomb and eserl have none.
I’m watching 11 starters get drafted since Paddack. We were overdue for an arms market correction. The two I like best are Charlie Morton and Joe Musgrove. I found it interesting that foot took Kevin Gausman right before Max Fried. I, too, am not high on Fried but I challenge you to find a list of SPs where Gausman is above him. Foot is gambling that a favorite sleeper pick will outperform the market favorite. Ian Anderson and Jesus Luzardo were value picks at this stage of the draft. We all know Anderson’s story, rookie who was scorching hot at the end of the year. The first time he pitched in front of a crowd as a pro was in the post season. He has great projections and plenty of upside. I’d like him to bust just so we can point to Dave and in our best Nelson Muntz voice say, “HA, ha! You waited too long to draft starters!”
There was an early closer run that I was determined to skip. I was glad to see that it burnt out after pick 93 as the rot from Craig Kimbrell’s decaying arm filled the air with a stench so foul that a few managers had to leave the room to breathe. Only Nick Anderson, Will Smith and Alex Colome come off the board over the next 65 picks. I like warty closers and I cannot lie! It’s my kink and I will not stand for no kink shaming up in this here league. Archie has been a good reliever since he entered the pen in 2017. The Phils signed him to a six million dollar contract and it seems obvious to me that he is going to be The Man in 2021. This Six Million Dollar Man doesn’t need to be rebuilt, he’s already Better, Stronger, Faster than all the other bums in the Philly pen. I have now drafted a Brantley and a Bradley in consecutive rounds. Sure wish Archie was somehow related to Milton, an old favorite of mine from days of yore.
11.02.162 Andrew McCuthchen, OF, Phils
Back-to-back Phillies. I would have liked to have waited until later to draft my third outfielder but there are no great infield bats on the board at this moment. Some of my favorite bats that I figured would be available in the teen rounds are getting grabbed now, Franmil Reyes, Joey Votto, CJ Cron, Nimmo and Jesse Winker. Eddie Rosario may be the first bat that goes over 50 slots below where he is taken in the NFBC. Yes, his OBP is piss poor and that should drop him in RIBC but he is one hundred spots higher on that list than Franmil and 200 over Votto. Looks like I am going to have to reach in the teen rounds if I want to secure my sleepers.
McClutch is much like my Brantley pick, a vet in his 30s who is a steady grinder. It’s hard to find OBP of .350 and that’s what he brings to the table. He’s not that old, 34, so he may get to double digit steals, he’s still fast. He still hits the ball hard so a bunch of doubles will probably get his slugging north of .450. Giddyup.
12.15.191 Jared Walsh, 1st, LA Angels
I have some names to put into my queue looking forward to round 12. I like Lance McCullers Jr., Sixto Sanchez and Dylan Bundy, in that order. I don’t want another outfielder but Trey Mancini could serve as CI. I don’t even put John Berti in my queue because I figure I will get him in the teens but damn, I miscalculated. After Lance is snatched away, I decide that I do not care for the starters at the moment and put all my energy into keeping Toral from drafting Jared Walsh. It worked! I have pegged Walsh as the 2021 Luke Voit. Walsh sprung onto the scene with great power for an unheralded player, like Voit. I do not believe there will be playing time issues with Jared, he will be the every day first baseman. Pujols will split DH duties with Ohtani and maybe even retire before the end of the year. He Went To Jared®!
13.02.194 Taylor Rogers, RP, Minnesota
It was bound to happen eventually. Even a blind squirrel will find a nut. The hayseed Hoosier took a warty closer right from under me. I was so worried that Toral was going to take Walsh from me that I didn’t think about Fosten taking Matt Barnes. Of course I was interested in Amir Garrett, anyone who tries to fight an entire team is alright by me but that fact that he hasn’t even pitched in Spring Training because of a forearm issue is a wart too far even for my kink. It was like Amir and Barnes were dressed in matching Cookie Monster onesies and Fosten is a Plushie. We are at a Furrie convention so there are plenty of other options. Taylor Rogers falls into the “draft skills, not roles” cliché as well as “2020 didn’t happen”. His 4.05 ERA was out of line with his 2.84 FIP, the same FIP as 2019. Rocco B warned the fantasy public that he won’t have a traditional closer in 2021 as the Twins signed Alex Colome but we’ll just have to see about that, the “shared closer” wart may be my favorite. A 3.00/1.08 15 saves and 27% K rate is pretty valuable.
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| | | 77 | kdl212
ID: 17825210
Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 15:42
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10.09 Didi Gregorius, SS, PHI
I have only picked 1 middle infielder so far, and expected that half the league was about to go to the MI well over the next couple of rounds. Almost went Musgrove or Wheeler and deferred the choice until the next round, but there were still some arms I liked for an SP4 that I figured I could wait on. No second baseman except Chris Taylor appealed to me at this point in the draft. And as much as I'd love to have Taylor's 2B/SS/OF eligibility, it seems that the Dodgers are going to give Lux a chance this year. Taylor will still get 4-5 starts a week, but I preferred someone with more steady at-bats and stat-accumulation prospects.
Gregorius was at the bottom of a tier of shortstops that I considered to be more than a 1-2 category guy. If he has an 800 OPS with a handful of steals and 160 runs+rbi, that's just the kind of round 10 hitter that allows you to compete. I learned an hour after making the pick that he was beaned in the head that day and might have a concussion. Fingers crossed it isn't a big deal.
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| | | 78 | kdl212
ID: 17825210
Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 15:55
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11.08 Eric Hosmer, 1B, SD
The last time I picked Hosmer in RIBC (2019), he had a negative average launch angle for the previous season. But in 2020, he was finally joining the Justin Turner revolution and crushing line drives and home runs at an identical launch angle to Tatis Jr. His expected slugging percentage was .517, so it wasn't an illusion. He was looking at a 30 HR/15 SB full season. That's 11th round gold right there. Hitting clean up in a stacked Padres lineup, I'm mostly hoping for stat accumulation, and praying he doesn't revert to ground-ball Eric.
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| | | 79 | Meatwads
ID: 132461813
Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 17:03
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6.11 Kenley Jansen, LAD
Every year I am concerned about selecting relief pitchers this early. But I also know I'll be left scrambling if I don't take the plunge. I basically wanted to get one of my top 10 closers. Ideally, someone with a track record of success that won't easily lose the job. Kenley has begun to show cracks in his armor but I still feel he is one of the safer closer options, pitching for one of the best teams in baseball. I'd feel better about it if it wasn't a reach but I'll try to make up for it on other picks.
7.06 Rhys Hoskins, 1B, PHI
To this point in the draft I have been hammering speed and pitching, so this felt like the right time to begin adding some slugger production to balance out the team. Hoskins is one of those types that takes walks, hits home runs, and plays most days. He's not the cream of the crop but his skillset plays up in this setting. In a traditional league, I would call this a bad pick. In this league, I actually think it is a value. Not fancy but it's helpful.
8.11 Kyle Hendricks, SP, CHC
I came into this draft more willing than years past to invest in pitching early and often. Based on how the draft has gone, I'd say 3 SP in my first 8 picks is probably a record for me in these leagues. As for Hendricks, I view him as one of the safest pitchers in baseball. I'm not making this pick with any thought about ceiling or upside. If he can just be exactly what he's been I feel my pitching staff is in excellent shape with him as my SP3.
9.06 Gio Urshela, 3B, NYY
I had considered Urshela last round but felt I could gamble that he would make it back around to me since most teams had 3B handled. I liked what I saw from him last season and his Statcast page is full of red. He's in his prime and I like him at this position if I'm unable to land one of the top players earlier. I have some concerns he will be hitting in the bottom third of the lineup but overall I think he can give me solid production this season in 4 categories. Another slugger type bat with good ratios to balance out my early speed.
10.11 Joe Musgrove, SP, SD
I had several directions I could've taken this pick but ultimately decided to go with Musgrove. He fits in well with the floor/ceiling stack I've put together. I love him pitching in San Diego. It's simply about staying healthy, which he has had issues with. As we all know, that can turn a good player into a cuttable piece in this league so I definitely aware of the risk involved. It just felt like a good moment to secure another SP to keeping building on my early investments. Could be anything from a Cy Young contender to out for the season in May.
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| | | 80 | youngroman
ID: 515013
Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 18:48
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9.12 Jose Berrios, SP, MIN
forget about closers. The available ones are not worthy to be drafted that high. After a few hitters in the last few rounds it was time to look at SP again. There are some out there that I like for this pick: Berrios and Luzardo are on top of this list. put them in the queue hoping that one of them survives. both did, so Berrios got taken. was hoping a bit that Luzardo makes it back to me but that did not happen.
Berrios is one of the few remaining starters that can get more than 1K per inning. he does that with acceptable projections at ERA and WHIP. he gets hyped for a few seasons now. maybe this is finally the year where he shows his potential over a full season.
10.05 Eddie Rosario, OF, CLE
thought really hard about closers here. I checked various sites and their closer rankings and it is amazing how many different closers are listed at #1 for their team. This gives you a good view which closers to consider, and which not. unfortunately my list came down to 1 closer that I would be confident in picking, but in the end I could not pull the trigger on him because there are already talks that he will get traded near the deadline and I don't want to waste this pick for a 3-month-closer. I better wait to see if all these situations become more clear going forward.
simply looking at the projections, Rosario is the best hitter available. I don't care that he is my 4th outfielder, when I don't have a SS or CI/MI yet. going with the best player available is always a good idea. his OBP is below average, but his SLG is above average. since I expect my remaining infield picks to not hitting for SLG, I better invest there now.
11.12 Christian Walker, 1B, ARI
I really would have liked to get a closer or MI here, but a potential closer would be a reach here and available MI's are not worth a pick that early. I don't want to reach for some players as long as I have starting positions left to fill.
These positions are C, CI and SP. due to the restricted playing time of C's I don't like them early. SP's are plenty available and we come to the point soon where most of them are pretty similar: 4+ ERA, 1.3+ WHIP, 0.7-0.9 K/IP with 140 to 170 innings pitched. There may be some outliers with an injury history that I might gamble on in the next few rounds, but not with this pick.
after Walker and #undrafted# I see a drop-off in expected AB's. less AB's is less counting stats and more need for a replacement player, so I better take one now before they are gone in a few picks. most of the managers until I am up again are still missing their 1B and CI.
12.05 Lance McCullers, SP, HOU
we all know that McCullers is a good pitcher and that his potential is much higher than the 181st pick. But we all also know that he never makes it through a season without an injury. So I enjoy the ride hoping that it lasts long enough for him to make a meaningful impact for my team, worthy of a 12th round pick.
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| | | 81 | mailedfoot
ID: 15118199
Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 18:57
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11.09 Richard Rodriguez, RP, PIT
Rodriguez seems to be the answer as to who will get saves for the Pirates. How many saves there will be is another question, however. He was great last year and if he can rack up 25 saves with a similar line, I will be thrilled. I’m usually up to scrounging for some saves on the wire, but that didn’t work so well in a 60-game season. Once bitten, twice shy.
12.08 Max Kepler OF, MIN
Max Kepler looks like a good value here and I still need to fill my outfield. Projections have him pegged for something like .335/.475 with plenty of counting stats. He slugged .519 in 2019 with some nice Statcast numbers so I am hoping for some of that action.
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| | | 82 | kdl212
ID: 17825210
Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 19:57
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12.09 Mark Canha, OF, OAK
Doing some OBP remediation here (after my Robles/Gregorius/Hosmer selections). The last two years, Canha's had an OBP of .396 and .387. That's Nimmo/Winker level of OBP, at a 40 pick discount. Sure, it's probably without the slugging those two guys offer. But since all three appear to be hitting leadoff, and none run that much, I don't see a huge separation between them. Here's hoping Canha slugs .500 like he did in 2019.
Would've gone with Kepler if he'd lasted (preferably, I would've gone Clint Frazier or McCullers if either had lasted, but Kepler lasted longer than they did), but mailedfoot apparently has stolen my spreadsheet. 5 times in 7 even numbered rounds, he's taken a guy I had in the top 3 of my queue and was seriously considering drafting.
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| | | 83 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 20:17
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12.12 Joakim Soria RP Ari
Jeez... every OF I had queued up gone. Mancini, Frazier, Kepler. All gonzo. That is ok... plenty of hitting options still queued. So taking a flier on a second RP while there are 1 or 2 I still like. This could be a great pick or a great reach. Soria is the presumptive closer for the D-backs but has good competition for the role out of camp or ready to swipe up saves if Soria falters or options for the manager if they want to go to any sort of committee approach. So this is a risky choice. On the other hand he has years of closer experience as a plus and is coming off a good season in Oakland, so I figure he has a resume to win this job and maybe even endure a rough patch. If he has the role at least half the year or off and on, or as a committee - should get 15-20 saves. If he has it all season, yay me. Will be good for strikeouts either way.
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| | | 84 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 20:20
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13.05 Jake Cronenworth SS SD
Curse you mmikulka... I had a 1-man queue of Corey Kluber earlier today... and it made it to me until you grabbed him 13.04. No big... I
never get Yankees, and will just will go another way.
Grabbing Jake here, the NL ROY runner up. He has 1B/2B/SS eligibility and could see OF time. While not the every day 2B, he should see regular time there, and can spell someone a day off anywhere else in the infield. If he repeats his .285/.354/.477 slash line and potential 10-15 steals, how can they not keep him in the lineup, if he sophomore slumps he'll play a little then less. I'll say it again... I need an NL DH bad - that would've really improved his PT. Padres doing all they can to create a circular line up should have plenty of opportunities for run production. But if he only had a projected 400 plate appearances, then we'll need to have more options on my roster to swap in as long as the lineups from the late games on the west coast are posted early enough.
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| | | 85 | Nerfherders
ID: 56261418
Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 20:47
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11.10 Jose LeCelerc, RP TEX
I felt like I had to jump back into the the very lackluster reliever pool that makes me glad I have Chapman locked in. LeClerc has a job, and will probably keep it barring injury or trade. Trade is what I'm worried most about here, and why I hate closers/saves as a concept.
12.07 Jon Berti, 2B MIA
I wanted my MI here and I struggled mightily finding what I wanted - an MI with decent OBP and some speed. I picked Berti, who is rated very highly on my spreadsheet but has no starting job. I'm just hoping he fills enough of the holes in the Marlins offense to play almost every day. He certainly has the tools for what I need from that position - it's just a matter of playing time.
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| | | 86 | Graydog
ID: 521432422
Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 21:36
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11.11 Carlson, Dylan - OF - STL
Feels like this is a typical young guy with pedigree and no track record pick. I'll need him to outproduce his projections and hopefully even move up the lineup to gain value here. Not super happy with this pick in retrospect.
12.06 Hicks, Aaron - OF - NYY
How often is the projected third hitter on the Yankees drafted 182nd? Just this year I would guess. Hicks gets a great bump over traditional rankings for OBP leagues like us. Injury history and a lack of flashyness have caused him to be underated in my opinion. Its almost a gaurentee he will produce when in the lineup which can't be said for too many remaining players.
New IL and bench spot this year? plays a position that can be filled by my bench or waivers? I'm in!
13.11 Martin, Chris - RP - ATL
Many are predicting saves for Martin despite Will Smith on the roster. Hopefully his handedness and continued crazy low walk rates make this happen. Went for him over other similar types because of this crazy low WHIP numbers over the last two years. 1.02 in 55 in 2019 and 0.61 in 18 last year.
14.05 Tellez, Rowdy - 1B - TOR
Lets get Rowdy! I don't think I just drafted him for his name but it might have helped...
I can't get past last seasons crazy numbers, so I reached a bit for him here. He might sit a couple times a week but that is fine by my I can have a replacement ready.
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| | | 87 | mmikulka
ID: 4211332822
Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 21:55
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13.04 Corey Kluber, SP, NYY
I debated whether I should draft Kluber or take one of the bottom-tier presumed-closers. I went with Kluber, mainly because I could easily envision a scenario a few months from now where I was upset that I missed out on Corey Kluber but could not envision a scenario where I was upset that I missed out on Anthony Bass.
Kluber has only thrown 36.2 IP since 2018, so that's not ideal. Of course, Kluber had 4 consecutive Cy-Young-contending seasons from 2015-2018. What will 2021 Kluber look like? We'll see. His fastball velocity isn't quite up to his 2018 levels, but it's close. Maybe that results in the kind of 4.15/1.21 line that the projections have him at. Either way, he should at least get some run support.
14.13 Andrew Benintendi, OF, KC
This was a brutal series of picks: all 7 of my top RP options went off the board, and my top 2 OF choices (Pederson and Senzel) got taken as well.
I eventually convinced myself to go with Benintendi. An elite prospect, he started his career with 2.5 strong seasons and was drafted in the top 50 in 2018/2019. I unfortunately am too aware of this, as I took him 38th overall in 2019 and got a mediocre season in return. Maybe drafting him here is a way to balance that out.
Batting 2nd should be a benefit, and now that he is on the Royals (between 2 speedsters in the lineup) I can see him raising his SB totals back towards 20. Benintendi had plenty of talent: I don't know why it suddenly disappeared, but he is only 26, so maybe it will return now that he's in a new environment.
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| | | 88 | Da Bomb
Donor
ID: 487112814
Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 23:58
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11.14 Clint Frazier, OF, NYY
I was considering Frazier when I selected Winker in the previous round so with him still on the board I went with it even though he’s my 4th OF. After receiving his first true extended playing time opportunity last season, Frazier came through with a .905 OPS including a 15.6% BB rate. He throws in double digit steal potential as well. He may not be an every single day player with the deep Yankees roster, but he should be in there most of the time and the huge leap he made on the defensive side will only help.
12.03 Greg Holland, RP, KC
I’ve waited the maximum time to get on the closer train if I want to leave the draft with a couple save options. I found Holland to be the most secure in his role to start the season from the remaining options not including those who play half their games at Coors. Holland assumed the closer role after Rosenthal was dealt away last season and with no major changes to the Royals bullpen in the meantime, it should be Holland again. I too was surprised to see his 1.91 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and career best BB % last year.
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| | | 89 | holt
ID: 491153264
Fri, Mar 19, 2021, 03:21
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11.16 Sanchez, Sixto SP MIA
At this point it looks like pitching is the strongest aspect of my team so figured I'd grab my 4th starter now to help avoid diluting my ratios too much with late round dart throws and streamers. Sanchez has been pretty stingy all through his trips in the minors and 39 IP in Miami. 2.58 1.02 in the minors and 3.46 1.21 for the Marlins. His K rate is lower than I'd like at just a hair under 8K/9 but he has a 99mph fastball to go with a curve and change so it seems like there should be room for that K rate to grow. He keeps em off the bases and in the ball park though. Looking forward to watching him pitch this season.
12.01 Mancini, Trey OF BAL
Mancini will have 1B eligibility in short order. I've had good luck with him in seasons past and didn't need to do any research other than to make sure he's healthy and ready to go. Welcome back Trey. I was hoping to draft Lux with one of my picks on this turn but Meatwads scooped him at 11.6. I looked into taking care of my second base situation, just in case I was overlooking something, but with Mancini available and destined to be taken before my next pick all of the available 2B options seemed counter productive. Mancini's 2019 numbers are pretty eye-popping (106 R, 97 RBI, .291 .364 .535) so even a 10% drop from that and I'm still in the money for a 12th rd pick. With Dom Smith being my other first baseman I think this was an important pick for me.
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| | | 90 | maspero
ID: 5815687
Fri, Mar 19, 2021, 09:21
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4.10 Liam Hendriks, RP, CWS
Still waiting for a nonexistent SP run (part 2), and without lots of players I expected to find here (part 2), I decided to bypass players who I did not particularly like at this slot, to go for the most elusive (for me at least) category… saves. Hendriks has been the most consistent closers the last two years, considering the creaks showed last year by Hader (see BB%) and finally with a team poised to win many games.
5.07 Jeff McNeil, 2B, NYM
Needing a 2B, I focused on McNeil mainly as an OBP stabilizer, to cover for Mondesi’s inconsistency.
6.10 Matt Olson, 1B, OAK
Looking always for OBP, I went for Olson who in a down year, even with a .195 BA he managed a .310 OBP. I wrote off last year, hoping he can regain the 2019 form.
7.07 Lance Lynn SP, CWS
I had no intentions to pick a SP until much later, but then Lynn kept popping up on the top of my list…. Until I could not pass up on him at 103. 2020 WHIP unsustainable, but the weak AL Central should help.
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| | | 91 | kdl212
ID: 17825210
Fri, Mar 19, 2021, 14:50
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13.08 Sandy Alcantara, SP, MIA
Need to infuse my team with a little more youth and upside. Nothing about Alcantara's numbers stand out to me. But nerds who write about baseball on the internet foresee continued growth for him, and he went 50 picks earlier than this in Tout Wars. I'll confess I peeked at his spring training stats before this pick, and he's struck out 19 in 13 innings without allowing any earned runs. Fingers crossed for a 9k/9 guy with a 1.20 WHiP who eats up innings in a year when it's going to be hard to rack them up.
Also considered Paxton, and one of a half dozen relievers who went between this pick and my next. But there were enough relievers that I figured one on the list would make it back to me in Round 14 (I was right, barely).
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| | | 92 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Fri, Mar 19, 2021, 18:09
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14.15.223 Frankie Montas, SP, Oaktown
We are on the backside of the mountain now. If you include Ohtani, there have been 71 arms drafted, an average of 4.4 per team. Eight teams have four pitchers, graydog has just two relievers, holt and Toral are the only two squads with six. I have five, I’m looking at adding my forth starter. These next two picks may be the place where I need to grab my sleepers and ignore the market forces. I don’t want a first or third baseman, catcher or another reliever here, anything else is on the menu. Of the starters, I like two undrafted, Paxton, Montas, E Rod, Eflin, Civale, M Gonzalez, T Mahle in no particular order. Maybe I will take two.
I got my second vaccine shot today, I’m now awaiting the Spidey Sense to kick in and hoping to use it from this point forward to help me in this draft.
I do feel some tingling and it’s about Frankie Montas. I don’t like him. I picked him up in ottoneu in 2019 and when he had his season ending injury I cut him. Foot picked him up and I have been rooting against him ever since. I cheered his 5.60 ERA last year. I look at his projections and they are middling, a decent 24%K rate but the same 4.00/1.3X that everyone else around him has. So why do Justin Mason and Paul Sporer at Fangraphs have him at SP27 and SP30? Above Paddack and Charlie Morton? Why? I actually prefer Zach Eflin and the two still undrafted more, but the market and the touts really disagree with me. Am I suffering from some confirmation bias and an unnatural desire for Montas to fail when dispassionately I should have him at the top of my queue? This is driving me nuts. I probably should take Montas first and Eflin around the turn and watch for myself which one will do better. I am sure that Jean Segura would make a good contributor to my squad and won’t be around in round 16, hmm, what to do? I get a message from Fosten that expressed his displeasure that I thwarted his grand Montas plans which brings a smile to my face. :)
15.02.226 Zach Eflin, SP, City of Brotherly Love
My third Phillie and my favorite Zach, yes, I expect him to outpitch Gallen, Wheeler, Pleasac and Greinke. He’s got a sore back, this is the type of spring training noise that I ignore, it’s not forearm soreness. He has aspects of both 2020 didn’t happen and Man, did you see him shine. He threw his curveball more and it went from a slightly below average to a good pitch. Hope he throws it even more. He threw very few four seamers which was good as it has horrible spin, both axis and rate. He needs some Driveline help on that pitch. He combines a great K rate with his ability to limit hard contact and a high groundball rate. With Archie closing out his wins this season, I need to find myself a Phillies hat.
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| | | 93 | Nerfherders
ID: 56261418
Fri, Mar 19, 2021, 20:02
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13.10 James Paxton, SP Sea
I'm going after specific positions now, and it was SP's turn. Paxton was the most promising of those SP's left. He's good when he's not injured, which is his greatest weakness. I like this pick pretty well.
14.07 Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA
I thought about Seager two rounds ago, and passed, and was going to take best available OF here, but something reminded me about Seager. I kinda regretted this pick as soon as I made it though. I have way too many veteran 'safe' picks, probably because projections are being safe this year. Seager simply is what he is, and not very exciting. I have to do better!
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| | | 94 | kdl212
ID: 17825210
Fri, Mar 19, 2021, 22:15
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14.09 Jake McGee, RP, SF
I was the last manager to draft a second reliever. It's not clear that McGee is the closer in San Francisco. But why else would a non-competitive team spend money on an old reliever? The plan must be to let him close for 3 months, and then trade him to a contender. At least, that's my hope. He put it together last year in L.A., and a check of his splits from his 4 years in Colorado show he consistently had significantly better road ratios than home ratios.
I tend to find saves on the waiver wire every year, so I expect this is my last reliever until some dart throws in the 20s.
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| | | 95 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 01:15
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14.12 Joc Pederson OF ChC
I was on the cusp of taking OF on most of my recent selections, and the saw them all evaporate waiting another round. Even though I missed out on some targets, feel good about picking up Pederson, whose value dropped due to a dismal 2020. In 2018 and 2019 he slugged over .500 and was ok in OBP. On a Cubs team as an every day player there are RBI opportunities and in Wrigley I am hoping for a rebound. Had Mountcastle on deck if Joc was swiped.
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| | | 96 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 01:16
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14.12 Joc Pederson OF ChC
I was on the cusp of taking OF on most of my recent selections, and the saw them all evaporate waiting another round. Even though I missed out on some targets, feel good about picking up Pederson, whose value dropped due to a dismal 2020. In 2018 and 2019 he slugged over .500 and was ok in OBP. On a Cubs team as an every day player there are RBI opportunities and in Wrigley I am hoping for a rebound. Had Mountcastle on deck if Joc was swiped.
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| | | 97 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 01:17
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14.12 Joc Pederson OF ChC
I was on the cusp of taking OF on most of my recent selections, and the saw them all evaporate waiting another round. Even though I missed out on some targets, feel good about picking up Pederson, whose value dropped due to a dismal 2020. In 2018 and 2019 he slugged over .500 and was ok in OBP. On a Cubs team as an every day player there are RBI opportunities and in Wrigley I am hoping for a rebound. Had Mountcastle on deck if Joc was swiped.
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| | | 98 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 01:20
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15.05 Chris Bassitt SP Oak
I have 2 SP so far and my SP2 pick Carlos Carrasco pulled a hammy in drills and now is going to be out 6ish weeks. Yay for us having an IL slot this year.
Nothing much to see here.... A serviceable starter in a pitcher friendly park. His projections are no where near his 5-2 2.29 1.16 season last year.... but I can hope
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| | | 99 | Toral
ID: 9541311
Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 08:15
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12.13 Devin Williams, RP, Mil
I could have sworn that I had put Amir Garrett (12.16) ahead of Williams on my queue. I can only hope that the fantasy baseball gods smile on me for trying to keep the draft moving with an autopick instead of adding a delay that might have allowed me to check the pick. And salute Fosten for his back-to-pack pix of Garrett and Barnes. They are the last 2 of the 5 closers that a closer expert thot might become a top-5 closer.
One thing that Williams and Garrett have in common is that neither is pitching in spring training yet; both are scheduled to make their debuts Saturday.
Rookie-of-the-year Williams should contribute with his ratios, will pick up a save or two when Hader needs rest, and will be a highly desirable player if Hader is injured or traded.
13.03 Travis d'Arnaud, C, Ari
Just as with my previous picks, I had no intention of picking a catcher when this pair of picks came up. I had even been thinking of something I've done before; not picking a catcher at all and picking up an extra closer candidate in the hope that he is named closer before Opening Day. It worked once, and worked better than the year I drafted Buster Posey early and he broke his leg.
I was late to the party, though, and Salvador Perez (12.10) and Grandal (12.13, and mmikulka's Official Snipe #2) had been taken by the time I was up. D'Arnaud was the last on my list of catchers worth picking now.His 98th percentile exit velocity and hard-hit rate suggest he can match last year's position as #3 roto earner among catchers; his injury history leaves some doubt. In any case I am confident I have enough outfielders in my queue to last until the next pick.
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| | | 100 | Toral
ID: 9541311
Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 08:37
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14.14 Ryan Mountcastle, 1B/OF, Bal
I thank Seattle Zen for inspiring this pick. He claimed to have found the next Luke Voit. There is actually an article on the web asking who might be the next Luke Voit. Rowdy Tellez (14.06) is listed as one of the candidates, and I agree he could be one if he can get the at bats. I didn't find a next Luke Voit; instead I found someone younger and better.
Mountcastle isn't actually playing 1B on Baltimore; he's playing OF, but he's eligible at 1B. He's slotted to bat 2nd, the bating position that accumulates the most combined runs and RBI in a league with the designated hitter. At 24 he can develop as a hitter. He needs to keep his OBP up so that Salamander and Mancini can bat him in.
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| | | 101 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 09:40
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16.15.255 David Peralta, OF, DBacks
Someone broke into my house last night! Don’t know how they got in, nothing missing, nothing broken, it seems all they did was punch me in my left arm and left a cute band aid. So strange!
I’m watching Depeche Mode 101 on the ancient medium of DVD. In the background I am hearing Everything Counts in Large Amounts and Never let me Down. I believe it’s too much to ask of a player taken in the 15th round to never let me down, but I will consider large amounts of counting stats at this stage. The band took down $1.3 million for one concert at the Rose Bowl in 1988. Now, if they poured all of that into Microsoft stock… PROFIT!
Only Meatwads and myself have five starters and seven pitchers at this stage. I think it’s time for some sleeper bats. Ha-seong Kim comes to mind. I wonder if Kim is being ignored because of anti-Asian prejudice. I mean when a strapping Cuban arrives on our shores with some pro success, he is usually hyped up and the daredevils among us snap him up early. Kim has been a top flight pro since he was 18. I envision him as a Korean Luka Doncic. I’ve seen a compelling case made for this projected line – 550 PA, 72 runs 75 RBI 12 steals and a 808 OPS - .342 OBP .466 SLG. That is awesome top 100 junk right there! Comps well with Jose Altuve, a Brandon Lowe with 12 steals, a KIA version of Grand Caravan Biggio the lesser. That line is even better than Baseball Prospectus’s line for Bo Bichette. Thing is, ZIPS has an even better projection for Kim – 80, 82, 17 .343/.477! You can’t tell me that Cronenworth will outperform that. Ain’t gunna happen. Slam Diego has arrived!
I watch Ryan McMahon, Paul De Jong, Tommy La Stella come off the board. Where is Jean Claude Van Damme and Ponce De Leon? Chance The Rapper? David Fletcher is off the board, then another “Damn it” when Guru takes Segura. A much bigger Damn it when holt takes Kim. Should have passed on Elfin. @#%$@&!!!!
I’m despondent so I don’t really care who I take. I grab Peralta because he is like a security blanket, not flashy, not new and shiny. With Brantley and McCutchen, I now have three of a kind – outfielders in their thirties with high OPS and floors, don’t steal bases. David should have a OBP of .340 and a slugging around .440-460. An important cog, Welcome to The Machine.
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| | | 102 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 09:57
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17.02.258 Elieser Hernandez, SP, Marlins
Elieser was the other SP whom I like more than Montas. I’m like a raccoon who grabs and hoards shinny objects, Elieser’s K%-BB% is so very shiny. He doesn’t have much velocity, he’s a two pitch pitcher whose slider is damn good. Pitches in a big ballpark, keeps runners off base, I like him to have a great year.
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| | | 103 | kdl212
ID: 17825210
Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 11:48
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15.08 Hunter Dozier, 1B/OF (and soon 3B), KC
I grabbed Hunter Dozier off the waiver wire in 2019, when he hit 350/520. We all have such a story, almost every year. That's a good reminder when we're staring at the same pile of unfulfilled promise or past-prime veterans in these teen rounds. Quality can be found that isn't sitting at the top of the list of remaining players in your fangraphs auction calculator spreadsheet, or by finding the highest drafted player in Tout Wars that isn't yet drafted here. It is time to go off-sheet and start grabbing guys because your gut says so, whatever the projection systems or professional imaginary baseball commentators say. Who cares if you don't have a second baseman yet. The difference between the guys available now, and the hot guy you can grab off the waiver wire on April 5th, is practically zero. Let's roll the dice on some guys.
I've also been surprised by the number of stories mentioning a tough case of COVID-19 as a possible explanation for a down 2020 for players. Outside of Freddie Freeman, I don't remember stories about MLB players having bad cases. Maybe they were out there, and I wasn't paying attention. Or maybe we never knew. Hunter Dozier is one of those players. He contracted COVID in July. Upon his return, he says now he was sluggish and unprepared. He managed to maintain his 345 OBP, but only slugged 400. I'm telling myself that the virus sapped his strength and timing, and that he's got a 345/460 season in him. With triple positional eligibility, that can be a nice piece to have on your team.
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| | | 104 | mailedfoot
ID: 15118199
Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 13:02
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13.09 Aaron Civale, SP, CLE
The projection systems don’t love him, but Civale is getting buzz in some circles as a guy who could take a big step forward. He has made some adjustments to his delivery to better his command and added a pitch to his arsenal. Cleveland does have a track record with developing pitchers, so I am buying in.
14.08 Kolten Wong, 2B, MIL
Kolten Wong moves to Milwaukee and looks to be the leadoff hitter as things stand now. He has demonstrated strong OBP skills the last two years and should get a little slugging boost from his new home ball park as it plays up left handed power. He is projected for around 15 steals (hoping for more) so I am thinking he makes for a solid pick here as my third middle infielder.
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| | | 105 | Graydog
ID: 521432422
Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 13:31
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15.11 La Stella, Tommy - 2B - SFG
Wow! My queue got nailed since my last pick which is pretty wild for how far into the draft we are. I had Wong, Mountcastle, Vaughn, Mcmahon, Dejong and Dozier all similarly or above in my queue than La Stella. If La Stella went I had my top relief option ready instead of a batter which I was not expecting after drafting Tellez in round 14.
Looks like he will lead off this year in more of an everyday role then he has often had in the past. Hopefully the Giants hit enough behind him to knock him in. I am sure he will sit against some lefties. Positive runs and OBP without killing SLG is my hope.
16.07 Pagan, Emilio - RP - SDP
My highest relief option. Fits what I am looking for - in the mix for saves, projects and has produced low WHIP. A Pomeranz injury the day before this pick bumps it in value as well.
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| | | 106 | mmikulka
ID: 4211332822
Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 14:47
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15.04 Paul DeJong, SS, STL
DeJong has a .205 career ISO, racked up 97 runs in 2019, might bat cleanup in a solid lineup, and is only 27 years old. Why is he still here in the 15th? (last year's .671 OPS).
16.13 Jorge Polanco, SS, MIN
Polanco, like DeJong, is a 27 year old shortstop who had a monster 2019 and then was lousy in 2020. He was drafted with the 124th pick last year and I'm taking him with the 253rd. Do I think he will put up 107 runs and an .841 OPS again? I doubt it, but he is an obvious rebound candidate.
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| | | 107 | mailedfoot
ID: 15118199
Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 16:33
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15.09 Jordan Montgomery, SP, NYY
Fifty some starters in, as far as I can tell Montgomery sits near the top of remaining options. He is pitching well this spring and his FIP was 3.87 last year with over 9 K/9 so I decide to make him my fourth starter. Hopefully, he takes a step forward and get a little more luck this season.
16.08 Jeimer Candelario, 3B, DET
Still needing a corner infielder, I evaluated the options and decided to go with Candelario. He rocked a .369/503 line last year, is currently projected to hit second in the lineup, and eligible at both 3B and 1B. He had nice Statcast numbers last year so I am hoping he has found himself as a big leaguer. This pick came down to Jeimer or Brandon Belt and I decided to go with youth and positional flexibility.
17.09 Gregory Soto, RP, DET
It appears that Soto may now be the favorite to close for the Tigers, so I decided to roll the dice with him here, figuring he won’t make it back to me. He’s having a good spring (or at least better than the other contenders for the position) and pitched well enough to win the job last year only to mess it up once he had it. Hoping for a better outcome this year.
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| | | 108 | holt
ID: 491153264
Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 17:21
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13.16 Santander, Anthony OF BAL
I distinctly recall Santander carrying the rest of my team on his back at times last season when he slugged .575 and had 32 RBI in 37 games. His OBP was only .315, but this is the 208th pick of the draft. As much as I'd like it, I can't possibly draft a full team of guys with .350 OBP projections.
14.01 Pollock, A.j. OF LAD
Well hell, if I'm gonna screw my OBP with Santander because he mashed for me last year, I may as well double down with Pollock for the exact same reason (.276 .314 .566). Most of the projections have him around .315/.470. I think his OBP could creep back up a bit.
15.16 Garver, Mitch C MIN
This is a case of 2020 doesn't count. I'm gonna focus on his 2019 where he put up .273 .365 .630 in 359 plate appearances. Worth taking a shot at. Every year in ribc I draft a bunch of upside picks after round 10 and rarely do I finish the season with more than one or two of them remaining on my roster so Garver fits in perfectly.
16.01 Kim, Haseong 2B SDG
I still don't have a secondbaseman (and Haseong is actually only SS eligible in ESPN at this point) but I expect him to pick up 2b and 3b eligibility at some point. There's still no guarantee that Kim plays every day but I really don't think the Padres signed him to 4 yrs $25M to sit on the bench. I can see him finishing with an OPS pushing .800 with 12 steals and there's always the chance that he exceeds that. His Korean numbers are certainly impressive and at 25 he has his best years in front of him. If he makes a smooth transition to MLB and hits second in front of Tatis and Machado then this is definitely a 16th rd bargain pick.
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| | | 109 | youngroman
ID: 515013
Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 17:24
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13.12 Anthony Bass, RP, MIA
I took my time to analyze the closer situation of a lot of teams. I ended up with a list of 7 potential closers not yet taken. After ordering them by probability and job stability, if really appointed the closer role, I had Bass, Neris and Bard as my top 3. thought a bit who of them is most likely there at 14.05 but in the end I took the "safest" closer which to me is Bass. his K-rate isn't outstanding, but who cares as long as his SV-rate is good.
note: of course after I pick a closer, the next 2 go in order. this triggers another research cycle if any of the other 4 is worth to get picked at 14.05
14.05 Tanner Scott, RP, BAL
as said with my last pick. I researched a lot of remaining potential closers today. I have 4 left with a probability > 50% of being the closer when the season starts. What sealed the deal for Scott is the injury to #undrafted#, where Scott now looks like the obvious option. In an interview today it sounded like the job is Scott's to lose until #undrafted# is ready, whenever that might be. And if Scott excels he might keep the gig.
15.12 Bryan Garcia, RP, DET
Thought about picking a SS but the closest I came was Segura, who is not eligible there in ESPN. Did not like any other SS yet.
Too many players out there that could be my starting DH, which allows me to look at closers again. the last one on my list of the potential ones to start the season is Bryan Garcia. why not take him? if he is not appointed the closer early on it won't be that hard to part ways with a 15th round pick. but if he closes he may look like a steal early on, as long as he keeps his job.
16.05 Christian Vazquez, C, BOS
I still do not like picking one of the available SS's here. I have one in mind that is hopefully still there in round 17 or 18.
I did not intended to pick a catcher that early, but Vazquez has too much value and potential to not draft him at this point. If he stays healthy he will be one of the catchers with the most games played. maybe even 140. He occasionally played at 1B in the past which may give him even more opportunities. he is capable of hitting for power, he even steals some bases. not what you I expect of a catcher I usually draft in rounds 23+
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| | | 110 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 18:02
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15.05 Chris Bassitt SP Oak
I have 3 SP so far and my SP2 pick Carlos Carrasco pulled a hammy in drills and now is going to be out 6ish weeks. My SP3 Sonny Gray is still up in the air for opening day due to back issues. Yay for us having an IL slot this year.
Nothing much to see here.... A serviceable starter in a pitcher friendly park. His projections are no where near his 5-2 2.29 1.16 season last year.... but I can hope
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| | | 111 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 18:03
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16.12 Andrew Heaney SP LAA
Went back and forth with picking another hitter like Belt or Haniger or choosing a pitcher among Heany, Marquez, or Manaea. Utilimately wanted another starter here and Heaney stood out for me a little. Mainly I like his K rate and the fact he does not pitch half his games in Colorado. Still have to hold my breath that he does not explode the ratios and hoping the K rate keeps a few more balls out of play
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| | | 112 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 18:20
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17.05 Brandon Belt 1B SF
We are at pick 261 and here I throw ADP, other drafts, and rankings out the window. I'll take some chances.
Need to enhance my MI and OF and looked to decide between Haniger and Belt. I think I need MI help more...
It is funny. In a couple of past ratioanels I mentioned how I am not worried about someone's 2020 stats. Now I am going the other way and seeing how Belt had a bit of a resurgence in 2020 .309/.425/.591 and looking for a repeat. He may be a few weeks late in starting the season due to his heel, maybe dropping his value. If healthy, Belt has a little better walk rate and power than other options.
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| | | 113 | kdl212
ID: 17825210
Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 20:44
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16.09 Tony Gonsolin, SP, LAD
Was at the top of my list after my last pick (along with Haniger), and finally the guy I wanted made it back to me. There's a chance he's the Dodgers 5th starter right out of the block. Ideally, he enters in the 4th inning after David Price starts, and he gets all the wins. Probably won't pitch more than 100 innings, but I was looking for quality innings, not quantity.
I presumed that if I'd picked Haniger, then Gonsolin wouldn't have made it back to me at 17. I justified going Gonsolin over Haniger because I've found it much easier to find bats on the waiver wire in RIBC than it is to find quality innings. That said, I'd rupture my left testicle to have Haniger at this price.
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| | | 116 | mmikulka
ID: 4211332822
Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 21:26
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17.04 Myles Straw, OF, HOU
SB
18.13 Robbie Ray, SP, TOR
The only other time I drafted Robbie Ray was in 2017, when I took him in the 15th round and rode his 2.89/1.15 + 12.1 K/9 to the title.
His average fastball velocity is up 2.5 mph from last year, and he has been great in Spring Training. Yesterday his manager said "It's not luck, it's real", so I'm getting my hopes up more than I probably should. If nothing else, Ray should provide value from his strikeouts: his 11.9 K/9 (since 2016) is 3rd highest among SP behind Scherzer and Sale.
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| | | 117 | Da Bomb
Donor
ID: 487112814
Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 23:46
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13.14 Daniel Bard, RP, COL
Bard’s manager has anointed him the closer, which is at least more than can be said than some other closer hopefuls going. Coors is terrifying, but Bard put up fine enough numbers in his comeback player of the year campaign, so maybe there’s something about his repertoire than can keep him excelling there.
14.03 Marco Gonzales, SP, SEA
Gonzales had a hot 2 months last year, finishing with a 3.10 ERA 0.95 WHIP and his K rate “spiked” to a more roto respectful 8.3/9. He sports excellent control, walking only 7 batters all last season and never more than 1 in a start. He will be counted on by the Mariners for another season of stability as the now de facto “ace” of the staff.
15.14 David Fletcher, 2B, SS, LAA
Fletcher’s 8.7% BB rate from last season and .376 OBP will play. He’s entrenched as the everyday 2B and leadoff hitter for the Angels.
16.03 Gary Sanchez, C, NYY
Boy was Sanchez awful last year, and in 2018 for that matter too. When he’s locked in though, there is no better offensive catcher, so at this point why not see if there’s still hope? 2016 OPS: 1.032; 2017 OPS: .876; 2019 OPS: .841.
17.14 Colin Moran, 1B, PIT
I am missing a 1B and CI for my offensive starters so I try to focus there before the already barren options become beyond so. I looked at my rankings and did not see anyone I wanted, then I looked over the depth charts and still nothing, then back to the rankings and still nothing yet, and then just decided on Moran. The former 6th overall pick ended last year with a career best .797 OPS, including .857 vs RHP, and 1.260 in July (7 games). He’ll hit in the middle of the order so that is something else. Several managers will be playing catcher roulette all year, but perhaps I will have less competition in my CI roulette (disclaimer: I may find myself playing catcher roulette too).
18.03 Jonathan India, 3B, CIN
With the Reds starting Eugenio Suarez their last 4 Spring games at SS, this plan appears to be serious and thus moves Moustakas to 3B and opens up 2B for India (currently 3B eligible in ESPN). I have no high hopes for him, but thought that it’s worth taking a chance on an unknown vs a known more likely to hurt my team’s OBP/SLG than not for my CI. He’s likely to hit at the lower middle of the lineup.
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| | | 118 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Sun, Mar 21, 2021, 00:05
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18.12 Corey Dickerson OF Mia
I only have 3 OF, so while most folks are adding a fill in, I am still looking for a starter OF4.
LOL, just noticed that Corey is just two picks ahead of Tim Tebow in ADP on ESPN... did I say LOL
He's still the Marlin everyday left fielder and if he produces more like he did pre-2020 then I have a great value here. Not a great OBP guy, but his slugging was around .500. If he repeats 2020 and the production is not there, then he is a good placeholder until I find the next best thing on my bench later, or out on the free agent market (not Tebow).
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| | | 119 | Nerfherders
ID: 56261418
Sun, Mar 21, 2021, 02:20
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15.10 Pete Fairbanks, RP TB
Ehh, another lackluster pick but could work out if he pitches well. If he gets half the saves in TB's CBC, that's 10-15 with decent ratios. I'll take that in round 15.
16.07 Alex Kirilloff, OF MIN
Okay, now we're talking! A nice upside, top 20 overall prospect who will probably start in LF for a playoff contender. This makes up for my last two blah picks.
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| | | 120 | s R
ID: 17234144
Sun, Mar 21, 2021, 05:36
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9.13 Solak, Nick - TEX - 2B
Hit just 2 homers but swiped seven bags last season and ranked in the 91st percentile in sprint speed, according to Statcast. Since Chris Woodward was named manager of the Rangers, they rank first in baseball with 180 steals. Solak probably one that could hit 15 home runs with 15 steals.
10.04 Lopez, Pablo - MIA - SP
The pitch-mix change and improvements in generating swings-and-misses have me pretty excited about Lopez this season.
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| | | 121 | s R
ID: 17234144
Sun, Mar 21, 2021, 06:07
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11.13 Bundy, Dylan - LAA - SP
With an above-average spin rate, Bundy looks to get swings and misses up in the zone with his fastball. He also featured a five-year ERA low in 2020.
12.04 Gallegos, Giovanny - STL - RP
The future closer in this organization is still likely Hicks, but I’d consider Gallegos the better option and favorite to lead the Cardinals in saves for the 2021 season.
13.13 Neris, Hector - PHI - RP
Barring a non-disastrous spring, Neris should be the favorite to open the season as the closer and provides a much higher ceiling than Bradley.
14.04 Senzel, Nick - CIN - OF
His play has mostly suffered due to injuries,but he could put up a 25/20 type of season with a useful triple-slash as well.
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| | | 122 | Toral
ID: 9541311
Sun, Mar 21, 2021, 09:04
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15.03 Ryan McMahon, 2B/1B/3B, Col
So much for my assurance that an OF from my queue would be available at 14.14. (I was drafting Mountcastle to be my CI, so I'm not counting him.) One by one they fell. Salamander 13.16. Tapia 14.02. I –literally – pounded the table 3 times in frustration when Senzel went at 14.04. (It was probably unreasonable to think that he might fall to me, particularly when he was hitting .357 in spring training. But he did go at 18.02 in AAA.) Lewis 14.10. Luckily I was asleep when the final blow fell – Benintendi 14.13, mmikulka's third snipe. There was one OF left in my queue – however, a quick check showed that he may not even make his team's 26-man roster. It seemed that my whole draft strategy had blown up. I composed myself and realized that a draft strategy that depended upon securing Andrew Benintendi probably wasn't much use in the first place.
After an Agonizing Reappraisal of possible pix from all positions, I ended up back where I started, with the last person in my queue. McMahon should start out playing full time because of injuries. He's been batting 2nd in spring training, but he might end up anywhere between 2nd and 6th, He's 26; no longer a prospect, more of a suspect. The ball is being deadened already, so unplug the humidor, Ryan, and develop a little at 26.
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| | | 123 | s R
ID: 17234144
Sun, Mar 21, 2021, 10:39
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15.13 Lowe, Nate - TEX - 1B
The move to Texas is beneficial for Lowe: he's slated to be the Rangers' regular first baseman. Lowe has power, but it’s still inconsistent at this point, but there are ample positive signs to take a flier this late.
16.04 Stroman, Marcus - NYM - SP
He's produced a FIP in a narrow band between 3.71 and 3.91 in each of the last four seasons, and an ERA in that range would make him perfectly serviceable.
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| | | 124 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Sun, Mar 21, 2021, 10:45
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18.15.287 Adam Duval, OF, Trophy Fish with long sharp nose
I generally don’t care to listen to fantasy baseball podcasts but occasionally I will. This morning I am listening to two guys who say that when they heard Zach Eflin had a “back injury”, they dropped him 30 spots on their starting pitchers list. Seriously? A guy gets his spring start skipped, a SPRING start, and they give up on him? How can these guys be invited to serious, nationally renown tout leagues?
At this point nine teams have taken a catcher. Two squads have no first baseman, everyone has drafted at least one second and third basemen and one is without a shortstop. Graydog has made it clear that he does not want any starters, every team has at least two relievers. My team is the only team to have six starters but I imagine I’m not done there. You have to figure that one or more of your starters will get injured and with the quants insisting that starting pitchers pitch fewer innings per start, even with the lowered IP limit it is generally a struggle to reach it.
I like Ty France… gone. The top of my queue is Manuel Margot, Damn it, foot! I like the Dickersons, Manea, Pineda and Marquez picks (even if you only start him on the road, not that Guru needs any help, just sayin’) Mitch Haniger, what are we to make of him? It feels like he’s baseball’s Sam Paneno who got tackled in college and had his leg amputated. Wasn’t Mitch’s last at bat against Steve Carlton? He was batting clean up in between Bruce Bochte and Al Davis. Brandon Rodgers? Well, it’s great that we have an IL slot this year but if he ever gets healthy he still doesn’t have a spot in the lineup of one of the worst teams in baseball so I’m not so sure I can get behind that pick.
Do you challenge yourself by making a quiz out of the dozen photos of former and current players faces at Baseball Reference? This morning I really surprised myself when I guessed Red Schoendienst correctly. We are in the UN section of the draft with the aforementioned Security Council Ty France going and the Security Counsel permanent position prospect Jonathan India next. Awaiting Tim Ireland’s and Mark Portugal’s return to the Bigs. Israel Pike got four at bats for the Hartford’s of Brooklyn back in 1877. When asked “which foreign country did the low life Michael Flynn work for without mentioning that he was a foreign agent?” the answer is “Turkey, Gross!” which is also the answer for “who was that terrible shortstop for the Red Sox back in 1925?” Huge Poland was waived by Churchill and FDR and claimed by the Russians in the 40’s because of Churchill’s long festering, feverish WASP supremacy fantasies.
Oh, yeah, Adam Duval. I came into the draft determined to take him because he is supposed to bat clean up for the Fish. I have focused a lot on high OBP batters so far so I can absorb Duval’s ~300 ish OBP. Looking for RBI and slugging here. Go Marlins!
19.02.290 Jonathan Schoop, 2nd, Tigers
Had not spent two minutes contemplating Schoop this draft season. See him being taken around this point on various lists, see that he is likely to bat fifth in a very suspect Detroit line up. He also has a piss poor walk rate so he must hit well just to get his OBP to 300. Get me those RBI, Johnny!
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| | | 125 | kdl212
ID: 17825210
Sun, Mar 21, 2021, 12:01
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17.08 Bryan Reynolds, OF, PIT
Another instant regret pick. I woke in the morning, I was 2 hours into the clock, and my dreams of finding Mitch Haniger at the top of my queue were dashed by meatwads. A little worried about Victor Robles's bad back, I just looked at outfielders, and went with youth and Bryan Reynolds over some undrafted veterans. Unless he starts hot, he'll be dropped quickly, I'm sure.
Right after the pick, I did my write-up for Hunter Dozier, and it's theme was "draft upside, not replacement level talent!" Which made me think of Ty France, who is 2B eligible (I don't even have one yet) and is hitting the cover off the ball in spring training. He won't keep it up (whatever those nuts-o AAA stats from 2019 suggest). But leagues are won by rolling the dice on guys like Ty France in round 17, not drafting inter-changeable parts. Ugh.
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| | | 126 | Toral
ID: 9541311
Sun, Mar 21, 2021, 13:00
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16.14 Tyler O'Neill, OF, StL
Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face. -- Mike Tyson
Meant to use this quote with my last rationale, but as I'm still talking about my OF woes, it's still relevant.
This is a “2020 doesn't matter but spring training does” pick. O'Neill is hitting.394 with power at last look and will be the Cardinals' starting left fielder. Past MLEs and his athletic skills are consistent with that; last year's stats are not. Hopefully he realizes that his professional life is on the line this year, and responds accordingly.
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| | | 127 | mailedfoot
ID: 15118199
Sun, Mar 21, 2021, 13:32
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18.08 Manuel Margot, OF, TB
I had my eye on Dickerson and Hays for this pick, but both are gone, and I turn to Margot as a fourth outfielder. I am not sure what kind of line I will get from him as there is conflicting info but what captured my attention is that his max exit velocity is up this spring, he is slated to hit in the middle of the lineup, and is projected for 20 steals.
19.09 Sean Murphy, C, OAK
Murphy’s projections are all over the map, but over his short MLB career, he has a .355/.491 line. I don’t really expect that, but he does have some nice Statcast numbers and I am willing to take a chance that he could prove me wrong.
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| | | 128 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Sun, Mar 21, 2021, 15:00
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19.05 Willi Castro SS Det
Currently the only player on my roster SS eligible is Jake Cronenworth who Holt and Seattle Zen seem positive will be riding the pine behind once their shared man-crush Ha-Seong Kim emerges when Kim-sanity takes over San Diego. Could be. I even conceded in my Cronenworth rationale he'd likely only have about 400 PA. So I better at least find someone who can grab PT for my team at short. Will give Castro first shot, he had a nice little rookie season where he over-achieved, and may even see a slot in the top third of the Tigers order. Hey its round 19 so the risk is low.
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| | | 129 | holt
ID: 491153264
Sun, Mar 21, 2021, 16:35
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17.16 Rodgers, Brendan 2B COL
Rodgers will take the Rockies 2B job after he recovers from this hamstring strain. If not for the injury I may have targeted him a little earlier. If we still had no IL slot I wouldn't draft him at all. With an IL slot, hard to judge where he might land. I'm bullish so I wanted to make sure my target round was higher than anyone else who may have him sighted up.
The things I like about Rodgers: he plays in Colorado, former 1st rd pick and high on all the top prospect lists since he was 18, middle infielder, 5 category skills, 24 yrs old (a little more ready for the majors compared to the terrible cup of coffee he had when he was 22), positive signals like his spring training numbers(.348 .400 .652) and 2019 AAA (.350 .413 .622).
What I don't like is his history with injuries and how pathetic his MLB numbers have been thus far (.196 .235 .227). But hey, that's a miniscule sample size, and the Rockies desperately need him to succeed.
18.01 Dickerson, Alex OF SFO
Hard to believe that someone who has mashed the ball at every given opportunity has so few MLB at bats at age 31. He's one of those left handed bats who can hit lefties well yet still gets platooned for no good reason. Hopefully he can get me at least 400 PA this year as his 2020 numbers are pretty inspiring (.298 .371 .576).
Here are the players statcast says he is most similar to (so why don't you just let this guy play baseball San Fran?):
match player
1 1.0 Dickerson (L)
2 .83 Machado (R)
3 .82 Springer (R)
4 .81 Tucker (L)
5 .80 Bellinger (L)
6 .77 Braun (R)
7 .76 Gurriel Jr. (R)
8 .74 Pollock (R)
9 .73 Grichuk (R)
10 .73 Cronenworth (L)
11 .72 Seager (L)
12 .70 Longoria (R)
13 .70 Bogaerts (R)
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| | | 130 | Nerfherders
ID: 56261418
Sun, Mar 21, 2021, 19:53
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17.10 Michael Pineda, SP MIN
Again, not a flashy pick, but this guy is solid when he's not hurt or suspended. I'm hoping this year he can get at least 150 IP under his belt.
18.07 Chad Green, RP NYY
Chapman's handcuff and a mighty good pitcher in his own right. He helped me 'win' G20 last year with great ratios and a few nice wins. I'm happy he landed here for me.
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| | | 131 | kdl212
ID: 17825210
Sun, Mar 21, 2021, 21:05
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18.09 Enrique Hernandez, 2B/OF, BOS
For many years, the Red Sox lead-off hitter was a top RIBC draft pick. But this year they've got Enrique Hernandez in the spot, and I'm certain I'll be the only person who drafted him before the 20th round. He's never had a chance to get regular playing time. Maybe this opportunity allows him to unlock his full potential, and he hits 330/450 and scores 90 runs. Those are optimistic 18th round goggles I'm wearing, but that's the required attire at this point. Thought about Josh Rojas and Profar, and a couple of other 2B-eligible guys (I hadn't yet drafted a 2B), but only Hernandez gave me a little excitement. If he poops the bed, I move on. [Note to draftime.com - either accent the "e" on Hernandez's nickname, or omit it. Putting an anti-semitic slur in parenthesis after somebody's name isn't a good look].
Thought about going starting pitcher here (big dice roll on Robbie Ray who has found 2-3 MPH this spring or Domingo German; or someone with a lower variance but a lower ceiling like Odorizzi or Taijuan Walker), but I had enough starters on my list of guys I could roster without plugging my nose that I deferred.
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| | | 132 | kdl212
ID: 17825210
Sun, Mar 21, 2021, 21:57
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19.08 Jake Odorizzi, SP, HOU
True story: I actually considered Odorizzi in round 13 alongside Sandy Alcantara. 6 rounds and over 20 starting pitchers later, he's still on the board. He was a 10k/9 All-Star in 2019 with a 3.36 FIP after he found a couple ticks of velocity. It seems 13 bad innings in 2020 and a late start to the season is enough to scare folks off. Happy to try my luck in the 19th round on a guy picked by Rudy Gamble (Rudy Gamble!) at 184 in Tout Wars. And for once in this draft, I was in front of a run on SP (13 of 26 picks starting with Odorizzi were SP). I'd love to get 130 SP3 innings out of my 19th round pick.
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| | | 133 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Sun, Mar 21, 2021, 22:25
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20.12 Dallas Keuchel SP CWS
I usually do not pick up a 6th starter, but I have a few drafted starters who may be a few weeks late. Lets see how Dallas does in the first few starts as the number two starter playing for a White Sox team who suddenly has high expectations. Keuchel is long removed from when he was a league ace. The White Sox need a better rotation if they are going to do anything this season
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| | | 134 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Sun, Mar 21, 2021, 22:25
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21.05 Jackie Bradley JR, OF, Mil
Picking up an OF5 to slot in on off days. Its a crap shoot. Three of the outfielders in Milwaukee's four man OF were all under consideration here. Thought about Cain for steals, but Bradley should get double digits as well, and has better splits in the projections I've been following.
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| | | 135 | Graydog
ID: 521432422
Sun, Mar 21, 2021, 23:48
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17.11 France, Ty - 2B - SEA
Frozen rope machine Mr France! Shocked that Seattle Zen didn't lock him up with his pick this round. I would wager 20 that France outduels his 17th round pick: Something Hernandez! Thanks for the great rationales S-Zen love reading them, so great in fact, I felt a shot across the bow was necessary...
France appears as safe a bet a as any at this point in the draft. Will play most days and his profile suggests he won't fall off the map because of his approach. Only has 2B eligibility at this point but should get 3rd and hopefully 1st at some point. I didn't really consider any other hitters here.
18.06 Varcho, Daulton - C - ARI
I don't know a ton about Varcho other than he is a highly rated prospect who can steal bags that has catcher eligibility. An injury to (undrafted or wont be drafted) has opened up playing time to start the year. I like to run 2 catchers when possible and this year that will be easier to do thanks to the rule changes. I also like my 2nd catcher to be on the west coast so I can always slot them in when Realmuto has a day off. As a bonus even if Varcho doesn't start he could be used a pinch runner and grab me a bag. Realmuto's thumb injury seems to be lingering longer than expected so I targeted catcher here.
19.11 Andrus, Elvis - SS - OAK
I had zero plans of drafting Andrus. I wanted to Draft Villar or Castro as a 2nd SS but they both went since my last pick, maybe I should have waited on Varcho but I didn't think they would both go. Andrus has told everyone who would listen that he plans to steal bases this year and his manager has seemingly told him "go for it". He has slowed significantly over the last 2 years according to statcast (35% spring speed in 2020) so apparently he will steal bases purely on veteran guile.
20.06 Romano, Jordan - RP - TOR
Great numbers last year. 2nd in line to close behind Yates who barely pitched last year. Seems almost certain Yates wont go back to back, smells like vulture city.
21.11 Wittgren, Nick - RP - CLE
Karinchak seems like he will be dominant but not yet proven in the pen for Cleveland. Wittgren is there if he falters. Wittgren's peripherals aren't as great as his recent ERA and WHIP suggest but maybe hes just "one of those guys" who can replicate that.
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| | | 137 | Toral
ID: 9541311
Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 08:48
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17.03 Garrett Hampson, OF/2B, Col
NBC Sports Edge says that Hampson will carve out an everyday role as a super utilityman with the Rockies. He has an OBP of .410 in spring training, without power. I am counting on him as a source of stolen bases. With a deadened ball, stolen bases will be more valuable, so time for Hampson to turn it on.
He can also entertain the fans as we play ring-around-the-rosey between innings now that I have 4 players with multi-position eligibility. He can move to 2B, McMahon can move to 3B, Biggio can move to OF, and Mountcastle can move to 1B.
Also considered: Mitch Haniger (17.06), Alex Dickerson (18.01), Robbie Grossman (18.04).
18.14 Domingo German, SP, NYY
Surprise, surprise. Mmikulka did it again. I wish mmikulka had read Rotowire's profile of Ray, which starts “If you came here looking for a case to draft Ray, you've come to the wrong place.” Ray has been lighting it up for the Blue Jays with a 1.98 ERA and 0.80 WHIP.
That's 4 snipes for mmikulka. That must be an RIBC record, don't you think? I guess it's not an official statistic.
In this case, however, I have a second choice. German seems to have locked up a rotation spot with the Yankees, and has a nice ERA of 0.00, with a 13/1 K/BB ratio. Yes, he plays for the Evil Empire, but the Wheatfarmers (officially at least) believe in Inclusion and Diversity and do not discriminate.
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| | | 138 | Toral
ID: 9541311
Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 09:03
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19.03 Adam Ottavino, RP, Bos
Looking for a reliever who can provide a source of K/IP and inherit the closer's role if the incumbent goes down or is traded.
20.14 Steven Matz, SP, Tor
Taijuan Walker (20.09) and Dallas Keuchel (20.12) were at the top of my queue for SP6, but those picks allowed me to go with my gut and pick the guy I really wanted.
I too have a lefthander who's been pitching lights out for the Blue Jays. ERA and WHIP even better than Ray's, 0.90/0.70. Intended as a late sleeper pick, but in this league it's not safe to wait.
21.04 Jake Diekman, RP, Oak
Was right after Ottavino on my list; may be a better choice if the incumbent's groin strain doesn't heal as quickly or completely as the As now hope.
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| | | 139 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 10:30
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20.15.319 Freddie Peralta, SP, Brewers
I’d like to take this moment to commend everyone for keeping this draft moving along swiftly without a single skipped pick. I learned on Thursday that I may have my first jury trial in over a year on Monday the 29th. Glad I don’t have that added stress during this most important event of March. COVID has caused the courts to postpone jury trials for most of the past year. I had three trials in January and February of 2020 before the Court stopped them for four months in March. I didn’t have any when they started up again in the summer yet I still ended up with the most trials for the office for the year, HA! My little county here on the lovely Olympic Peninsula has had a very low COVID rate all year, one of the lowest in a state that has been held up as the model of the nation’s covid response. The NY Times had a story saying that if the whole nation responded like the Great State of Washington to COVID we would have saved over 300,000 lives. Y’all could have learned a thing or two, looking specifically at you, North Dakota.
I have now drafted a Frankie and a Freddy, sounds like the makings of a do wop band or the cast of Jersey Boys. I will not have that here on Seattle Zen, I have professional standards that won’t allow it. Unlike a certain squad from back East, all players MUST have beards. The team went on a spirit quest in our yurt and came up with more appropriate names for our boys. They will hereby be called Gideon Montas and Aṡoka Peralta.
Aṡoka may not be listed as a starter for the Brewers this spring but rest assured he will be in their rotation and one of their stars. He had an elite 38%K rate in 2020, his Statcast chart is very red. His four seamer is elite, no one can hit that cheese despite average velocity. He’s just 24 and he is going into his fourth major league season. With an excellent defense behind him to gobble up the few balls that his opponents hit, he won’t be drafted in the 300s next season.
21.02.322 JP Crawford, SS, Seattle
I can’t remember the last time I drafted a Mariner bat. The local newspaper is hyping JP’s improved bat this spring in hopes of convincing people to pay money to attend games in person. Don’t know if it will work. He’s slated to lead off, maybe he will start stealing bases. He was once a top prospect and the main asset coming to the M’s in the Jean Segura trade. He may be decent, he may be waiver wire fodder in April, who knows.
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| | | 140 | Da Bomb
Donor
ID: 487112814
Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 11:48
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19.14 David Dahl, OF, TEX
A former fantasy sleeper darling, Dahl has been hampered by injuries but is currently back to full health, hitting well this Spring, and looks to be the everyday #2 hitter in Texas.
20.03 Joey Wendle, 3B,2B,SS, TB
The Rays like to rotate their lineup around but Wendle should be in there at least full time vs RHP where he had a nifty .798 OPS vs them last year and stole a total of 8 bases. He will ideally act as useful depth with his 3 position eligibility.
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| | | 141 | Nerfherders
ID: 56261418
Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 15:48
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19.10 James McCann, C NYM
I guess I have to have a catcher eh? McCann was pretty good last year in limited duty. Honestly not expecting much here, but the catchers behind him are very nearly un-rosterable.
20.07 John Means, SP BAL
Just looking for my 5th and final starter. Means is very good, and his only downside will be wins. His ratios should be fine and his K rate will be okay. If he trips up, should be easily replaceable.
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| | | 142 | kdl212
ID: 17825210
Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 16:16
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20.09 Taijuan Walker, SP, NYM
This is only the 2nd time in 11 RIBC drafts that I've ever selected 7 starting pitchers. But I think quality innings are going to be tougher to come by this year, and thought the value of Odorizzi and Walker in these last 2 rounds was much higher than the hitting options or reliever wild cards. It might be a blessing that I did, since news just hit that Zac Gallen (my already regretted 4th round pick) has the dreaded forearm soreness. That makes that pick even more regrettable, but these last two more important.
Not expecting any Cy Young votes here. But a career year in a pitcher's park with good offensive support cannot logically be ruled out.
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| | | 143 | mmikulka
ID: 4211332822
Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 18:50
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19.04 Cesar Valdez, RP, BAL
Who better to draft than a 36 year old that had a 7.5 K/9 last year, spent 2018-19 pitching in Mexico, and throws an 85 mph fastball?
Valdez threw a weird sidearm changeup 83% of the time last year. Nobody else threw a changeup over 58% of the time, and only 7 other pitchers threw one over 40% of the time. It resulted in a 1.26/0.70 line, though hoping for a repeat of that seems silly. His role is undefined at the moment, but Valdez was the Orioles' closer at the end of last year and it seems like he might be in contention for at least a share of that role in 2021 too.
20.13 Madison Bumgarner, SP, ARI
Bumgarner had a lousy 2020, but didn't we all?
Prior to that, he had 10 consecutive years of quality pitching. The projections hate him, but I have rebound hopes: Bumgarner seems old, but he is only 31 and his fastball velocity is up 2 or 3 mph from 2020. He was drafted 188 picks earlier last year, so it won't take a full rebound for him to have value. I doubt he will be an ace, but I will be very happy if he can return to something like his 2019 numbers (207.2 IP, 3.90/1.13, 8.8 K/9).
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| | | 144 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 19:13
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22.15.351 Framber Valdez, SP, H-Town
I like a lot of the picks coming off the board. I came into the draft expecting to take Josh Naylor but at this point I have five outfielders so Nerf can reap that profit. Jake Diekman is a great pitcher who should get some saves either because Trevor gets hurt or traded. Also like Clase, the guy is a K machine. Soroka and Smyly are great values this late. I have frequently drafted Rich Hill over the past five seasons because I trend towards drafting skills even if the player is made of glass. This year, though, there will be plenty of “Over the Hill” puns, I suspect holt will cut Rich fairly early not because he is injured but because he is not. I, too, was considering Elvis Andrus, graydog. Your late round Andrus France middle infield has a great chance of making hay, not so sure about Wittgren, but the Romano pick is now looking rather wise. We may be looking back at this draft in October and say to ourselves, “Why didn’t I think of that?” when we look at Not so Young anymore Roman’s pick number 300 Chris Sale. With an IL slot, he could very well provide a half season of top 50 production without damaging YR’s bench. I wanted Jesus Aguilar and John Means. Dallas Keuchel was a steal, of course he won’t have a sub 2.00 ERA but still, that’s a great pick. Lo Cain, E Escobar, Starlin no longer the Marlin Castro, all excellent picks. I’ve been a big fan of Trevor May since he was in high school in Kelso, WA. Early first round pick by the Phillies, traded to my Twins for Ben Revere, he throws heat and could easily spend some time as the closer because E Diaz can have bouts of “Where is that confounded plate?!?”
The Rouge’s Gallery this morning at Baseball Reference was way too difficult. Who in the hell would know that this  is Ice Box Chamberlin? Don’t get me wrong, he was a good pitcher, he started 301 games and had a 9.2 WAR for St. Louis one year, but it was for the Browns and that was in 1889. Safe to say I didn’t have any 1889 baseball cards in my collection.
This one was also unfair  I didn’t recognize Freddy Garcia because this looks more like a mug shot than anything (probably intentional if you followed Freddy’s career). I have seen Freddy about three feet away from me back when he was a Mariner.
Is it time to look for a catcher? Ugh, no.
I make a queue of nine players around the time holt is picking and now just a few picks away not a one has been taken. If I was an American woman research has shown that I would probably start questioning my list and let doubt creep in. But I’m an American man so I will just brush it off, call y’all a bunch of clowns in my rationale and sit smugly in my Throne of Self Assurance waiting for praise and accolades. Because I am white, too, I am accustomed to getting them even when they are not deserved.
I had Framber at the top of my queue because I am in desperate need of starting pitching ;) He doesn’t need surgery on his finger after all, his healing is a “miracle”. His manager said he has “The Predator’s blood” in his veins. I think he may have meant Pascual Perez, I get the two of them confused, too. I’m hoping to do at pick 351 what YR did with Chris Sale, stash the guy on the IL while he is “day-to-day” and watch his electric stuff confound the Texas Rangers and Mariners maybe ten times this year.
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| | | 145 | mmikulka
ID: 4211332822
Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 19:33
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21.04 Maikel Franco, 3B, BAL
I needed a backup CI/3B, and Franco should be passable. His career hasn't provided much to get excited about, but at least he has some modicum of power: maybe his new home stadium will boost his OPS into the .780s or .790s.
22.13 Garrett Crochet, RP, CHW
Garrett Crochet has a career line of 0.00/0.45 with a 13.5 K/9. His fastballs averaged 101 mph last year and regularly reached 103 mph. His teammates have called him a "unicorn", "the Shawn Bradley Monstar", and "Randy-Johnson-esque". Steamer is projecting him for an MLB-leading 14.11 K/9 (their highest projection ever?).
And yeah... he has 6.2 career IP so who knows if he will be any good.
I was upset to see Guru poach Trevor May, my other primary target for this set of picks.
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| | | 146 | mailedfoot
ID: 15118199
Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 20:24
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20.08 Mike Minor, SP, KC
Minor is reported to have increased velocity this spring and will be pitching in a pitcher’s park this season. He is getting some buzz as a popular sleeper type pick. I decided to give him a shot here as fifth starter.
21.09 Eduardo Escobar, 3B, ARI
Escobar is projected to hit third in the Diamondback lineup and should rack up plenty of counting stats. In 2019, he hit 35 homers with a .320/.511 line and his max exit velocity is up this spring. Hoping he regains some of that form after dealing with COVID last year.
22.08 Andrelton Simmons, SS, MIN
Simmons is a depth piece for my middle infield and backup for Torres. He’s been a steady middle-of-the-pack type player for most of his career. I only see a few decent SS options still available so went with him here.
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| | | 147 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 08:53
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22.12 Rafael Dolis, RP, Tor
I Waited to long to handcuff my RP2 Soria and DaBomb grabbed closer-in-waiting Crochton from Arizona's pen.
Now I see my Toronto closer Yates is hurt.. Going to miss time. Jordan Romano will likely get the save chances, but already taken by Graydog...
So just grabbing a possibility of someone who could also be in the saves mix for the Jays, and strikes out more than a hitter per inning, and just hoping for a short IL stay for Yates.
Why'd I vote against IL slots??? Now I need like four.
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| | | 148 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 08:53
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23.05 Blake Treinen, RP, LAD
Like I said in 22.12, my closer handcuffs are gone.... so will take one of the few other team handcuffs left. Treinen is the Dodgers set-up-slash-eight-inning guy, and has a lower K9 than most in this role, but the Dodgers will win a lot of games, hopefully by three or less runs, and Jensen will need a day off from time to time.
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| | | 149 | s R
ID: 5970131
Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 08:53
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17.13 Manaea, Sean - OAK - SP
He doesn’t have the most exciting profile as a pitcher as he relies more on control and command rather than strikeouts, but Manaea has made it work throughout his career, and has been a solid starting pitcher since his debut. Manaea definitely isn’t the flashiest pitcher, but he should still be quite a productive one.
18.04 Grossman, Robbie - DET - OF
Enjoyed a career season in 2020. Grossman achieved career-high with a .482 slugging percentage last season. He hit .241/.344/.482 with 22 extra-base hits (eight homers) and stole eight bases. He projects to hit leadoff for the Tigers this season, highlighted by his excellent career .350 OBP.
19.13 Hoerner, Nico - CHC - 2B/SS
Hoerner is fighting for the starting second base job. He has been in the lineups with the starters of late as well. He has performed well in Spring Training as well and has some prospect pedigree.
20.04 Nola, Austin - SD - C
The Padres like what Nola brings to the table, which points to him seeing the majority of playing time for them at catcher.
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| | | 150 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 09:10
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23.02.354 Dylan Floro, RP, Marlins
Ha, ya snooze, ya lose, Fosten. Thwarted your Dylan Floro hopes and dreams! He signed a contract with the sharp nose fish after pitching for the Dodgers last year. Here’s how I imagined his interview in Miami went: Fish Management (FM) - “Floro, is that Madagascarian? Mancunian? Macadonian? Martian?” DF – Close, Mercedian. FM – It says here you are of the Æsir under Thor. DF – Again, close. I’m a graduate of Buchah Colony High School and our mascot was Thor. I’m actually from the House of El, my father comes from the lesser known branch: the House of Randal El, perhaps you have hear of my cousin Antwaan? Speaking of, I may have to scan the clubhouse for Kryptonite. Hope that won’t be a problem. FM – Proudly Kyrptonite-free since 93!”
Floro may not supplant Large Mouth Bass as the closer but he should provide decent numbers. Nobody can get good contact on his outstanding sinker. He doesn’t walk anyone so his WHIP is nice.
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| | | 151 | Toral
ID: 9541311
Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 10:38
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22.14 Justin Upton, OF, LAA
A long time ago in a league far away I gave up four keepers to get Justin Upton (Well 4 keepers for him; I could have kept only 2.) When asked to explain the trade, I pointed to the list of comparable players at his age at Baseball Reference.com. It included numerous Hall-of-Famers plus a few others whose careers had derailed on the way to the Hall of Fame, like Juan Gonzalez and Vada Pinson. And I later found out that another manager had wanted Upton even more than I did, but I got there first.
Time has passed. Justin Upton flat out stank the last two years. His list of comps is now totally different. Shawn Green, Dale Murphy (who could be a Hall-of-Famer and who collapsed much like Upton), Reggie Jackson, Bobby Bonds, Greg Luzinski (hey, on what planet are Greg Luzinski and Bobby Bonds comparable players?), Ruben Sierra (another guy who collapsed)....
Except for my desperation for outfielders I never would have considered Justin Upton. The best Rotowire can say about him is that he slashed .285/.385/.582 in his last 23 games. Then I noticed that he's hitting .367/.424/.767 in spring training and has even stolen a base (he stole none last year.) If he hits after Trout and in the midst of Rendon and Ohtani he should have plenty of opportunities to bat in and score runs. Maybe Mike Trout had a word with him and told him that he didn't want anyone in the lineup who played like he didn't give a damn. The talent has always been there, and in the 22nd round I can afford to take a chance.
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| | | 152 | Meatwads
ID: 232392312
Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 14:24
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11.06 Gavin Lux, 2B, LAD
This is the point in the draft where I had to shift gears a bit. First and foremost, this league is notoriously aggressive drafting middle infielders. Rightfully or not, it happens. They are basically treated like closers to a certain degree, and runs happen. A lot of times those runs happen earlier than I think their actual value is. At this point, the board had already been cleared of the safe options. Sure, there were probably some players more guaranteed of playing time, but that's not how I prefer to use these middle-round picks. Lux appears to be the frontrunner to start at second base against right-handed pitching. His upside at a relatively weak position made me comfortable with the gamble. Should chip in across the board with the potential to break out and be a difference-maker.
12.11 Leody Tavares, OF, TEX
Projected to hit leadoff for the Rangers this season after flashing some intriguing power/speed upside last season. I feel adding the steals at this stage of the draft from someone who's not empty speed was a logical use of the pick. I was hesitant to lock up my third OF spot this early but his profile fit my goals enough to justify the selection. There's definitely risk involved since he is only 22-years old and a sophomore slump is within the realm of possibility. I wonder if I could've landed him a round or two later, but outside of that, I am pleased to add him to my squad.
13.06 Drew Pomeranz, RP, SD
Every year I make the mistake of selecting the clear best arm in a bullpen, only to have the manager decide to use their 4th best reliever in the role. It only takes some brief research to discover that Pomeranz has been among the most elite relievers in baseball since moving to the bullpen. Right up there with Liam Hendricks, Josh Hader, and several other top arms. There is no doubt in my mind he is the best arm in the Padres bullpen and would be among the best closers in baseball if given the job. After being the favorite all off-season, the Padres are going to give three lesser players a chance before him. And I am one step closer to not playing leagues with saves anymore. What should've been one of the steals of the draft is a throw-away pick.
14.11 Tyler Mahle, SP, CIN
I had invested in some early pitching so this pick was mainly to build on that. Mahle quietly had a nice season last year and is one of my favorite SP targets after all the bigger names are off the board. This league allows pitching to fall much further than other leagues I play, so I wasn't expecting him to be around at this point. As my SP5 I feel strongly that starting pitching will not be the reason for my demise, as it so often is. It should be clear at this point that I am not willing to lose this league again because of the same issues. If I'm going to lose, it's going to be because I couldn't deal with the offenses other teams put together. Not because I'm playing catchup in pitching ratios from day one.
15.06 Jarred Kelenic, OF, SEA
The Mariners are on the verge of turning their franchise over to the talented youth. As a longtime resident of the area, I feel I have a good sense of the direction the team is going and the timeframe it's happening. Obviously, there are some managers in this league who simply won't take a player that isn't starting in the Majors. And considering our high limits and small benches, I can't blame them. I am the type who is willing to wait a month. I can be flexible with the backend of my roster in the meantime. When Kelenic arrives, he will be the hottest pickup out there and he'll already be on my team. There are several examples just in the last 5-6 years of rookies coming up and taking the league by storm. Most of them less heralded than Kelenic. I'm willing to take the gamble that he's Rookie of the Year material and an immediate upgrade to my team upon in promotion in late April.
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| | | 153 | holt
ID: 491153264
Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 16:14
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19.16 May, Dustin SP LAD
Appears that only 3 of the Dodgers' rotation spots are set at this point. Then you have Urias, Gonsolin, May, and Price. Urias and Gonsolin are off the board so I figured I'd take a chance on May and Price and see what happens. May has a 100 mph heater and a whip of of 1.09 in the majors so far.
19th rd note - W Castro looks like a nice bargain pick to me JeffG.
20.01 Price, David SP LAD
I shouldn't have to explain anything about a David Price. How long will I keep him on my roster if he starts out in the bullpen. Who knows?
Also, Bumgarner is only 31 yrs old? Seriously???
21.16 Flores, Wilmer 2B SFO
1B and 2B eligible. No one ever wants Flores. I know this because he always ends up on my RIBC teams at some point. Not sure how many AB's he'll get, especially in the early going, so this might not be such a great pick. I was kind of short on time with this pick and was having a hard time coming up with position players I had any interest in at this point. he did have an OPS of .848 and .830 in 2019/2020. It's always nice to have an easy painless cut early on so another plus for Flores.
22.01 Hill, Rich SP MIN
I owe Hill for all the incredible starts he's granted me in the past. I didn't want to leave him standing there waiting to be picked like some goofy uncoordinated coke-bottle glassed nerd. He deserves better than that. I will not hold him on my roster for weeks between his inevitable injuries like in years past though. Hoping he somehow stays healthy and gives me 120 IP. Yeah. The last time he had a WHIP over 1.16 was 2014 when he only threw 5.1 innings. Now I see that in 2014 he was 34 yrs old. I guess that must be why they call him over the hill all the time.
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| | | 154 | mmikulka
ID: 4211332822
Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 22:46
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23.04 Noah Syndergaard, SP, NYM
I was worried that Seattle Zen's Framber Valdez post might ruin this plan, but fortunately Syndergaard made it back to me.
He's throwing 96 mph already and is slated to return at some point in June. Will he be an ace post-Tommy-John? I don't know, but with the addition of the IL and the extra roster slot, it's worth a try.
24.13 Brandon Workman, RP, CHC
Kimbrel insurance. If Workman pitches like he did in 2017-2019, he might stick around even if Kimbrel is good.
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| | | 155 | kdl212
ID: 17825210
Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 00:20
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21.08 Starlin Castro, 2B, WAS
Nothing to see here - backup 2B with a low OBP who hopefully hits 5th or 6th in the Nationals' lineup and he starts off hot. If not, he's dropped for someone who is hot or to fill in for injuries. Also considered Eduardo Escobar and Wittgren, but left him out there so Graydog can amass a staff of exclusively closers (maybe the "corner-the-market" strategy will pay-off, but it'll only do so by trading, because you get 16 points whether you win the saves category by 50 saves or 1 save). In the end, it's better for all me that one guy have 19 closers than 4 or 5 other managers have 4 each. So, please, graydog, keep picking relief pitchers (and catchers).
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| | | 156 | kdl212
ID: 17825210
Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 00:32
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22.09 Ian Kennedy, RP, TEX
Certainly didn't go to bed with Ian Kennedy anywhere on my radar. But as I waited for my pick to come up in the morning, news that Jose LeClerc was headed for surgery and Kirby Yates was out for weeks as well came out. Research into the Texas bullpen revealed that all their good relievers are hurt, leaving two players (Kennedy and Bush) who aren't even on their 40 man roster as the best positioned for getting saves. Toronto's role seemed likely to go to Romano (owned by graydog, of course), but Rafael Dolis got a few saves last year, so he was considered as well. With no special information, I chose Kennedy because he had 30 saves in 2019.
Had news not intervened (including news that Zac Gallen, my 4th round choice, had the ominous forearm soreness), I was planning to draft a starting pitcher who will be on the IL to start the season.
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| | | 157 | Nerfherders
ID: 56261418
Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 01:09
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21.10 Josh Naylor, OF CLE
I was honestly lost as to what to do with my remaining picks. I needed a 4th OF until Soler qualifies, and the remaining options were not promising. I literally know nothing about this guy except his projections are okay, and he has a starting job. He's also young and has some upside.
22.07 Lucas Sims, RP, CIN
I thought this was a smart pick at the time, thinking he has a chance to be the closer in Cincy. Little did I know that LeClerc was determined to be out for 'extended time' and probably lost. I could've taken a TEX reliever, but the options there are as murky as the chances of Sims closing. Just mad that I already lost one of my players before the draft is even over.
And then.. something happened, and it was 20 hours before my next pick.
23.10 Jazz Chisholm, 2B MIA
Can you take a handcuff for a middle infielder? That's what Jazz is, essentially. He doesn't quite have the 2B job nailed down, but his upside is good, and if he breaks camp with the team, I can 1-2 Jazz and Berti, even though Berti will probably play mostly in the OF.
And then... another one bites the dust. Kirilloff sent down with a week to go in the spring. Two down, how many more to go?
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| | | 158 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 08:17
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24.12 Keone Kela RP SD
Still fishing for more save opportunities. Kela is likely to start the season as the Padres set-up guy, but the guys ahead of him Melancon and Pomeranz are not any locks to hold down the position. A good player to keep on my roster until things work themselves out, or other players present themselves.
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| | | 159 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 08:18
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25.05 Asdrubal Cabrera 3B Arz
It was either a catcher or MI here. Ultimately, I wanted another MI and Cabrera is a utility player for the Dbacks who just may get more playing time than other options here. Maybe can contribute to the counting stats when he plays
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| | | 160 | s R
ID: 5970131
Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 08:51
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21.13 Eovaldi, Nathan - BOS - SP
Eovaldi’s plate discipline stats have evolved favorably since 2015, and he’s velocity is there. The mixture of high velocity and discipline that makes him a good pitcher. I believe Eovaldi has top-30 upside.
22.04 Longoria, Evan - SF - 3B
Longoria posted the second-best barrel rate (11.5%) and best hard-hit rate (45.2%) of his career last year. I’m taking a shot on him.
23.13 Wisler, Matt - SF - RP
A multi-inning reliver with great ratios can be a secret weapon.
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| | | 161 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 09:39
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24.15.383 Yusei Kikuchi, SP, Pilots
Wait, Yandy Diaz was available? Damn, missed that. T Rainey, too? Maybe I should pay closer attention. Yusei is my eleventeenth starter. I’m the opposite of graydog. Why stream waiver wire chumps when you can draft yourself a stable full of thoroughbreds? Though his ERA last year was unsightly, his FIP was 3.30. He increased his velo and K rate. He has four very good pitches. He has millions of good reasons to pitch well this year, his contract has a clause where the M’s can exercise and option to keep him for four more years at $66M or he can exercise a one year option for $13 million. The Mariners are in a good division to compete in this year, they have a lot of top young talent, the Astros took a large step back this offseason, the Rangers are god awful and the Angels and A’s are meh. I think Kikuchi could have a SZ emblazoned on his uni all season with a winning record and an ERA under 4. Perhaps he and Maeda can teach the rest of the squad the fight songs from their high school years.
25.02.386 Jorge Alfaro, C, Miami
More Fish! I’ve got four trophy fish to go with my three Phillies and one Giant Gnat. Guess I will be firing up a lot of 4:00pm games on MLB TV. Screw the Mets and the Braves! Catchers are awful, when we get rid of home plate umpires can we also drop catchers? Just have some sort of padded wall the pitcher throws against? Much like NFL kickers, we have to have a catcher and Alfaro is just as meh as the next bum. Here’s some next level, sabermetric analysis: If he stinks I’ll cut him and grab someone else. Looking back to his minor league years, there is a lot to like. Back in 2013 as a 20 year old in rookie ball, he slashed .429/.500/.820 .569 wOBP, 240 wRC+ and as a 22 year old in rookie ball in 2019 he improved to .500/.667/.750 .656 wOBP, 311 wRC+. I am counting on something inbetween those numbers, I’d be fine with a .585/.800 295 wRC+ for the whole season, not the six and three game performances back in ‘13 and ‘15. GO MIAMI!
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| | | 162 | Toral
ID: 9541311
Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 09:48
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23.03 Brad Zimmer, OF, Cle
A few years ago I made rather a fool of myself for drafting Zimmer about 12 rounds earlier than he should have gone. I has entranced by the combination of speed and power he offered. Now it transpires that he should have the good side of a platoon in the Indians outfield. Rotowire says "Zimmer deserves a normal season where he's healthy before giving up hope that he can get back on track.” OK.
After the game he can join Wheatfarmer colleagues O'Neill and Hampson for a drink in the Last Chance Saloon.
24.14 Jason Adam, RP, ChC
Hmmph. When Pomeranz went down with forearm tightness, Keone Kela (24.12) was so obscure that I had to email Fred to get him included on the list of players. He was at the top of my scraping-the-bottom-of-the-barrel-for-potential-closers list here.
Jason Adam was mentioned on a sleeper list as being someone who might emerge from the rubble when Kimbrel goes down. That and a good spring were enuf to get him picked here.
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| | | 163 | Toral
ID: 9541311
Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 10:09
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25.03 Miguel Rojas, SS, Mia
What an injury day yesterday! I swear I didn't push Robbie Ray down the stairs so that Matz could take his position in the rotation. Then Fernando Tatis left the game with what turned out to be left shoulder discomfort and the injury day wasn't so funny, particularly as I had no backup shortstop. It appears Tatis will be fine, but I guess it's still prudent to have a backup shortstop.
This is my last rationale for my last Guru-led RIBC league. I thought that some musical accompaniment would be appropriate:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixEOMB6jyEE
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| | | 164 | kdl212
ID: 17825210
Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 13:11
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23.08 Yandy Diaz, 3B, TB
A bit surprised to see Yandy and his high OBP still available in round 23. Nevermind that he had a -7.9 launch angle last year. We all know gravity was especially strong last summer. The trouble is, the Rays are managed like my 10 year old's little league team - EVERYBODY PLAYS!!! Starters get substituted for in the 5th inning. So there's a likelihood that I'm getting 2-3 at-bats per start from him, and only when the Rays face a left-handed pitcher. Or, just maybe, he's a 5-day a week clean-up hitter. The other trouble is Wander Franco, who everybody thinks will be called up by June to play third base. At this point in the draft, I'll take 200 at-bats with a high OBP, and anything else is gravy.
Also considered a couple of upside OF picks like Franchy Cordero and Gregory Polanco, a couple of relievers (Keone Kela and some undrafteds), and a catcher. But everyone in this direction of the turn already has a catcher, and there were enough to choose from still that I was comfortable waiting.
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| | | 165 | kdl212
ID: 17825210
Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 13:27
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24.09 Omar Narvaez, C, MIL
Once Yasmani Grandal was picked, "Catcher Plan #1B" was activated, which is to not draft a catcher unless Sean Murphy was available in Round 20. When Murphy was picked in Round 19, I figured I would be filling my catcher slot after the draft from the waiver wire. But when my Round 24 pick came up, there was Narvaez sitting there. He offered a higher upside than any of the options sitting there (though I could imagine a dice-roll on a late-career gem from Posey). Before last year, he looked like a steady .360 OBP guy with variable power. Since 2 managers still needed a catcher on this turn, I decided to pull the trigger. I'm giving Narvaez a mulligan for his first year in the NL last year under crazy circumstances, and hoping he returns to his prior self.
I wasn't expecting to be padding my OBP this late -- usually by round 20 it's OBP killers who are left - but the late combo of Yandy Diaz and Narvaez might even raise my team's OBP.
Because this is RIBC, even Round 24 choices have consequences. I had a list of guys I still wanted to roster that included Yusei Kikuchi, Keone Kela, Gregory Polanco, and [two undrafted guys]. The only one I considered here was Kikuchi, who is on every other pitcher sleeper list I've seen for his underlying stats from last year. But I already have 7 starters (the Zac Gallen news of a fractured forearm was, confusingly, good news) so I decided to let him go, knowing he wouldn't make it back to me.
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| | | 166 | kdl212
ID: 17825210
Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 13:35
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25.08 Gregory Polanco, OF, PIT
I was *this* close to picking Luis Arraez, just for the sheer delight of snagging a trio of high OBP guys in the last 3 rounds of the draft. With Kiriloff sent down, Arraez could be getting regular at-bats at the start of the season in the leadoff spot. But maybe he's a 4-game a week guy. And apart from OBP, he doesn't offer much. So I went with a higher ceiling but much, much, much lower floor pick in Gregory Polanco. He was great in 2018, hurt his shoulder, and his been absolutely awful since. But the nerds, when they remove their glasses and squint, see some good statcast data (on those rare occasions he didn't swing and miss last year, he hit the ball hard) and several folks have him on their late-round flier lists. And so here I am. I took him in Round 17 last year, with the same optimism. Let's hope the results are better this time around.
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| | | 167 | Meatwads
ID: 202112412
Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 13:39
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16.11 Bobby Dalbec, 1B, BOS
Since I went heavy pitching early compared to most teams, I was always going to need to take some calculated gambles on offense in the mid/late rounds. Dalbec has shown himself to be a real power threat at the highest level. The sample size is small and there are strikeout issues. But he seems to possess a lot of the traits that play up in this league. I expect his OBP/SLG to be more than solid and his ultimate value will be determined by how high his counting stats in R/RBI go. Could be a decent CI option this year but has the upside to be a Top 10 first baseman if he works his way up the batting order.
17.06 Mitch Haniger, OF, SEA
Nothing fancy about this pick. I just saw it as a solid value at the stage of the draft we were at. Obviously, the injuries over the last couple of seasons have put a damper on Haniger. But he is seemingly healthy at this point and locked into an everyday job to begin the season. We're talking about a player who is 30-years old, has a career .348 OBP and .480 SLG% for his career. It's simply about staying healthy. If he does that, I think it will be a really nice pick. If he gets hurt again, just another easy cut.
18.11 Bobby Witt Jr, SS, KC
I made this selection with the understanding that the Royals are very high on Witt. Their willingness to bat him near the top of the lineup in Spring Training shows me they are preparing him for an early-season promotion. I don't have as much confidence in Witt working out this season as someone like Kelenic, but I am willing to stash him for a bit to see how it plays out. Could be an easy cut at some point or a key MI piece for me. Everything I have been able to gather suggests Witt will be called up and given an everyday job at 2B, with the flexibility to play some SS and OF as well. I think the Royals are going to give him a chance early and often. Considering we are nearly 300 picks deep in a league that values quality MI, it felt like an easy gamble to make. I can always back out if things aren't lining up.
19.06 Tejay Antone, SP/RP, CIN
There were "safer" options on the board. Pitchers that are highly likely to get me more innings. There is something about Antone that is drawing me to him. The Reds have talked about him breaking camp in the rotation, being in a multi-inning role after an opener, or potentially landing the closer job. I'm not exactly sure what is going to happen here but I am intrigued by all the possible avenues to fantasy value. I also appreciate what the Reds pitching development has done with some other players. I could see Antone being viewed in an entirely different light a year from now, or just another forgotten guy that I saw something in that wasn't really there.
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| | | 168 | mmikulka
ID: 4211332822
Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 14:03
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25.04 Tyler Rogers, RP, SF
He's no Trevor Rogers. Not even Taylor Rogers. He picked up a few saves last year, though, and yesterday Gabe Kapler named him (alongside Jake McGee) as a potential closer.
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| | | 169 | Meatwads
ID: 202112412
Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 14:19
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20.11 Josh Rojas, 2B, ARI
I needed another MI option that I felt relatively good about to back up Lux at 2B. Rojas is someone that came onto my radar a couple of years ago but he's never really been given a true opportunity. After noticing him doing well in the spring he is someone I had circled as a late-round target. I've seen him projected to leadoff and I've seen him projected to hit in the 5 hole. I suspect he will move around the lineup depending on the matchups and how well he is playing. His defensive versatility gives him a real shot of securing at least a super-utility role. There is a wide range of outcomes with this pick. Rojas could end up anything from an early-season cut to a useful multi-position player, to becoming a legitimate starting caliber 2B in mixed leagues.
21.06 Emmanuel Clase, RP, CLE
I am a big believer in Clase. The young man has an electric arm and seems to have a future as a dominant closer written all over him. Whether or not that shows itself this season is debatable. James Karinchak is also a really nice pitcher, so there is no guarantee that the role ever opens up this season. Should the opportunity present itself, I think Clase will be a popular add in all leagues. I suspect he will be a high-strikeout reliever who has solid standalone value. The possibility of saves being added to the mix adds to the allure.
22.11 Jose Alvarado, RP, PHI
Another late attempt at grabbing some saves. Alvarado has been dominant this spring and has worked his way into the closer discussion, according to the team. He definitely has the most electric arm in the bullpen. I am not overly confident he will earn the job, but at this stage in the draft, speculative closers are not a bad use of a pick if you don't feel like chasing saves off the free agents every time a rumor emerges. Basically, this is a low-risk, high-reward pick. If Alvarado emerges as the closer, it looks wonderful. If he doesn't, then he'll be replaced early by someone in a more advantageous position.
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| | | 170 | Graydog
ID: 521432422
Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 15:06
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22.06 Kelly, Carson - C - ARI
Ahhh the 3 catcher strategy...goes well with the three kicker strategy for NFL.
I just wanted a handcuff for the beginning of the year in case Realmuto's thumb isn't quite ready. I did see that he just homered in his first spring at bat so I'll take that as a sign that Kelly will likely be dropped for a reliever. After all, you can't have too many relievers or catchers.
23.11 Duffey, Tyler - RP - MIN
Duffey has put up excellent stats the past 2 years and will round out my modern day pitching staff where everyday is a bullpen day. He also is a handcuff for my earlier pick of Colome.
PS. KDL when you need some saves, come and see me and we can work something out:)
24.06 Eaton, Adam - OF - CHW
Looking for some batting depth. I was surprised to read that Eaton is only 32, he seems like he is older then that, likely due to the injury history. If he stays on my roster he should provide positive OBP contribution without hurting elsewhere and maybe get me a bag or two.
I strongly considered all available undrafted relievers...
25.11 Renfroe, Hunter - OF - BOS
More batting depth. I likely won't keep Renfroe and Eaton but we will see. I liked the move to Fenway for Renfroe as he seems built to loft fly balls into and over the monster.
I considered undrafted, undrafted, undrafted, undrafted and undrafted relievers...
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| | | 171 | youngroman
ID: 515013
Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 15:06
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17.12 Willi Adames, SS, TB
for a SS Adames had good numbers last season (.332 OBP, .481 SLG). He is still young, so he could get even better. The only problem is that he plays the same position as baseballs #1 prospect Wander Franco, which will be called up at some point. The question is what will happen with Adames playing time when this happens. is he good enough early on to get moved to a different position? do they trade him? I sit there and hopefully enjoy the ride until Franco appears. then I need to re-assess.
18.05 Austin Hays, OF, BAL
he is crushing the ball in spring training. He is a starter for now. He only needs to carry that spring into the regular season.
He showed in 2019 what he is capable of.
19.12 Chris Sale, SP, BOS
after the draft we are allowed to put one of our players on IL. I thought if I should wait for someone to get injured during the season or to get a player that I know is injured and will return at some point, hopefully sooner than later.
I compiled a list of potential players, like Sale, Syndergaard, #undrafted# and some more. Had not initially decided when to go to this list, but since the available players are all very uncertain in their performance or playing time, I though that it might be time to pick this injured player. Sale topped my list. He is expected back by the end of May or early June. It is a bit of a gamble if he will come back as strong as he was before, but I guess 50% of the season from Sale are worth more than 100% of the season from an average pitcher available here.
20.05 Yimi Garcia, RP, MIA
backup to Anthony Bass who was not yet named the official closer. If Bass loses his job, Yimi will take over. He has a good K-rate, the expected ERA/WHIP won't hurt. A perfect candidate this late in the draft. I now need the Marlins to get lots of close wins for my duo to rack up some saves each.
21.12 Isian Kiner-Falefa, 3B/SS, TEX
I need to fill my void at MI at some point. Ideally I need 2 players to fill that void because I need to backup 2B and SS as well and 3 players won't do. So I need 2 players in the last 5 rounds for 2B and SS.
I researched which potential options are out there. the remaining players are not great options, but the pool of players gets thinner every round, so some of you believe that the value of some players is far better than the value of others. I don't see that much difference, but I need to take one before the pool of players that will see regular playing time is really empty and I struggle to get the games played in during the season.
Kiner-Falefa's numbers were not pretty the last few seasons, and this years projections don't see him improving much. His big plus is playing time. playing time means counting stats. There are some news about him changing his approach with the bat, but who knows if this improves things or make them even worse. This could give him the boost to be relevant in fantasy this year. I will monitor this situation and don't mind in dumping him for the 2nd or 3rd great pickup of the season.
22.05 Austin Slater, OF, SF
not a good 24 hours for closers: Kirby Yates, Jose Leclerc, Joely Rodriguez. their potential successors are not yet known and there is a lot of speculation who they might be. I can't pick any of the rumored players at this point.
playing time for Slater might be an issue, but it seems he will be given the chance to see more playing time this year. he only needs to use it. knowing that he will see almost all starts against lefties I know when to put him in there. When in the lineup he steals more bases than many others, even improves my teams OBP at the cost of SLG. but you can't expect everything this late in the draft
23.12. Kwang-Hyun Kim, SP, STL
in search of a late pitching gem I came up with Kwang-Hyun Kim. He pitched well last year in his first season in MLB and if he is a nearly as good as he was in 2020 he can surprise many.
when researching pitchers for this pick I got an unusual amount of "Our European visitors are important to us" on various sites. What is up with all these American media outlets? it seems they don't give a shit about us Europeans. I also have the feeling that the sites that are not available to us is growing and growing. the GDPR is now there for 3 years, so you can assume they will never opt in to the concept of data privacy. F... You!
24.05 Kevin Newman, 2B/SS, PIT
he is hitting lights out in spring training. He seems to be the regular SS in Pittsburgh. He is eligible at both MI positions. What is not to like about him?
Thought about starting pitching, like #undrafted# and Jefferies, but I was still missing a 2nd 2B so Newman fits better. There is hope one of them will be there in the next round. or a RP gets a surprise closing gig.
25.12 Daulton Jefferies, SP, OAK
we are throwing darts now. I just pick a top prospect with lots of potential that had a fantastic spring. Its anybody's guess how long he will retain his spot on my roster. Hopefully for a full season.
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| | | 172 | Da Bomb
Donor
ID: 487112814
Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 15:45
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21.14 Drew Smyly, SP, ATL
Smyly threw an enticing 26.1 IP last season where he had a 3.42 ERA 2.01 FIP 1.10 WHIP and added 2.5 MPH to his fastball which led him to over 14 K/9. Only a couple of his starts went at least 5 IP, but the Braves front office liked what they saw as they couldn’t wait to give him $11M as the first free agent signed to switch teams this past offseason.
22.03 Stefan Crichton, RP, ARI
Soria hasn’t been named the closer and it seems he is battling with Crichton, who performed admirably in the role last season after Archie Bradley was traded. He hasn’t yet given up a run this Spring fwiw. I also made this pick minutes before the Leclerc news came out and was deciding between Crichton and an arm in Texas as Leclerc had not been named closer either, but the next best Ranger option was less clear.
23.14 Kyle Crick, RP, PIT
At this point I don’t see any bats I need to draft over someone I could pick up for a matchup play or hot start early in the season or an SP who would sit on my bench until I felt comfortable starting him and thus I would likely use a streamer before then, so I will take another stab at a small potential case of early saves. Rodriguez has not been named closer and has struggled this Spring, so Crick has a chance of taking the role.
24.03 Reyes Moronta, RP, SF
In the chance the Giants use their best lefty reliever McGee earlier in games, Moronta could find himself in play for save opportunities.
25.14 Luis Severino, SP, NYY
Chances are virtually zero that Severino will last on my roster until he’s healthy as I will need the IL spot for someone else, but until then I will stash him and pick up a FA post draft. I have that someone in mind, but it’s probably not a good idea to talk about him yet.
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| | | 173 | Meatwads
ID: 202112412
Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 17:06
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23.06 Carter Kieboom, 3B, WSH
Third base was the last infield spot I didn't have a backup yet, so I took the gamble on Keiboom. The early returns in his career are mediocre at best, and I can't say I am super excited to land him. He is someone who was viewed as a top prospect a couple of years ago, the organization seems to like him, he's penciled in to start despite the early struggles. I do think Keiboom will become a worthy fantasy player at some point. I just can't say with confidence if this will be the season it begins to appear.
24.11 Dylan Cease, SP, CHW
This is one of my deep sleepers this season. I've talked with some smart pitching people who see the ingredients for a full-blown breakout. Pitching is inherently risky and pitching half your games in Chicago isn't ideal. But he does have an elite fastball with an elite spin rate. He's also being coached by the same people who got Lucas Giolito to the ace-tier. There were a couple of other pitchers I considered as well but felt none of them brought the upside of Cease if it actually clicks. My confidence isn't super high but intrigued enough to take a deep stab and see what happens early.
25.06 Buster Posey, C, SF
I strongly considered taking another position I already had filled and bypassing drafting a catcher all together. Ultimately, I decided to give the spot to Buster Posey since I will need to fill the position by opening day anyway. He was the catcher on the board with the best track record, the best spot in his team's lineup, and the player I suspect will have the most ABs. How the mighty has fallen. I will be pleasantly surprised if he survives all season on my roster.
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| | | 174 | mailedfoot
ID: 15118199
Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 18:25
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23.09 Zach Davies, SP, CHC
Davis is lined up to be the number 3 starter for the Cubbies and pitched well last year. Projection systems don’t expect a repeat but he’s something of a Kyle Hendricks mini-me and sits among the best of the remaining starter options according to some of the experts I have been following.
24.08 Tim Locastro, OF, ARI
Locastro is making some noise in spring training and figures to be at least platooning in the Diamondback outfield to start the year. ZiPS has him for a .348/.406 line with 20 SB so I am hoping they are on the mark with that projection.
25.09 Luis Arraez, 2B, MIN
I guess I will be rooting for Minnesota this year as Arraez becomes the 4th Twins player on my roster. Somewhat surprised he was still available in the last round as he has excellent OBP skills. Talk is he will be a utility type player so I’m hoping he gains eligibility at some other positions.
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| | | 175 | holt
ID: 491153264
Thu, Mar 25, 2021, 03:50
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23.16 Cooper, Garrett 1B MIA
I tell you he gets no respect. Cooper deserved to be in the majors when he was younger. He finally got a chance in 2019 at age 28 and delivered. He deserves to be ranked and drafted higher in fantasy baseball and hopefully he proves that this season. At 6'5" you'd think he would have more holes his swing but he's a very well-rounded hitter with no extreme splits. I think the Marlins will get him in the lineup on a regular basis and he will gain OF eligibility. He may end up being dealt this summer. The Dodgers have already been trying to acquire him. His .283 .353 .500 line last season was no fluke.
24.01 Frazier, Adam 2B PIT
I don't have much to say about Frazier. I need someone to hold down 2B for a short while and Frazier starts every day and should have a good spot in the lineup.
25.16 400 Skubal, Tarik SP DET
Big lefty with high 90's heat and good command. 10.4 K/9 and 1.22 WHIP in 7 MLB starts last season. 13.2 K/9 2.11 ERA and 0.99 WHIP are his career minor league numbers. Hoping he becomes Mr. Relevant.
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| | | 176 | s R
ID: 5970131
Thu, Mar 25, 2021, 03:52
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24.04 Cordero, Franchy - BOS - OF
It sounds like he’ll be back up to full heath sooner than expected, if he’s not already. This season with the Red Sox might be his last chance to prove the power/speed combo that he flashed in minor league.
25.13 Staumont, Josh - KC - RP
If he could somehow walk batters at a more palatable rate — say ten percent — Kansas City has got themselves a real stud.
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| | | 178 | Nerfherders
ID: 56261418
Thu, Mar 25, 2021, 11:08
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24.07 Victor Gonzalez RP LAD
I would have a preferred a pitcher in the line for saves, but I'll take a productive pitcher here instead. A situational lefty who does his job. He should be fine here.
25.10 Sam Hilliard, OF COL
I would have taken a backup catcher here to pair with McCann, but circumstances forced my hand. I needed an OF. I was prepared to take Heyward here, and hope his excellent 2020 meant he finally figured out how to hit. But, I found Hilliard, an up and comer who seems to have the starting CF job in COL. He was awful last year, but his track record before that was excellent, so maybe there's something here. At 25.10, it's basically an FA pickup, so it doesn't matter too much if he fails or gets sent down.
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| | | 179 | maspero
ID: 14211918
Thu, Mar 25, 2021, 18:20
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8.10 Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF, TOR
After a good 2019, Gurriel solidified his play in 2020. Hard for him to repeat the .348 OBP, buoyed by a .351 BABIP, but his slugging number should stay high, or maybe improve… since dreaming is free.
9.07 Franmil Reyes, DH, CLE
Typical slugger, with the usual plethora of Ks and the less usual ground ball percentage to limit his ceiling. Hoping to correct the latter to survive the former, and waiting for him to play some games in the outfield to lose the “DH-only” tag.
10.10 Zach Plesac, SP, CLE
Who knows if Plesac is the good not great 2019 version or the great 2020 version. Even if he is a candidate to partially retrace from last year numbers, I think he is a young guy on the way to establish himself as a number two or number three starter.
11.07 Rafael Montero, RP, SEA
Needing a number two reliever, I went for the good player with the role all for himself, but with the danger of being traded away. Unless a young Seattle team lasts in contention until after the trading deadline, or he gets traded to a team in search for a closer and not a setup man.
12.10 Salvador Perez, C, KC
I never owned Perez in my life as fantasy manager, and did not think I would this year. However, sitting there at 186, why not pull the trigger on a very steady, if unspectacular, contributor. 2020 OBP was a mirage built on cobwebs, but I think the 186 position has a natural regression already built in.
13.07 Austin Riley, 3B, ATL
Needing a 3b, I went with Riley’s upside. Had better contact in 2020, sacrificing power, even if not shown by a .301 OBP. Hoping for OBP to correct itself and for exit velocity increase to conduce to better power numbers.
14.10 Kyle Lewis, OF, SEA
Young player not as good as the first month of 2020 season, but not as bad of last month of 2020 season. I would feel good if he can play in the middle. Good sign the increase of BB%.
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| | | 180 | Fosten
ID: 3111131015
Sat, Mar 27, 2021, 12:14
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1.01 (1) Ronald Acuna Jr. OF ATL
Consensus 1.1 is not Mike Trout? Weird. I never really had a chance to own Acuna in any leagues, so I figured I'd see what all the hype is about. Hmmm... OPS of .931, I like that. 118 RBI, I like that. 28 SB, I like that. 0 saves, WTH? This guy seems like a horrible pitcher. I guess I can forgive him for that, but the Braves? That means he has to face Noah Syndergaard like maybe twice this year. That's not going to work out well for Acuna! SZ was surprised I didn't take Syndergaard here, so I figured I'd at least mention that I was thinking about Syndergaard at 1.1. Maybe try and catch Noah on the way back at 2.16. Look out below!
2.16 (32) Luis Robert OF CWS
Wow Syndergaard still on the board! Ok fine, let's double down on OF early, and then never take one again. Make sure you hold me to that, please. (Wait, is there somebody else here? Who am I talking to? Is this call coming from inside my house?) Probably should have taken Eloy's projected .548 SLG, but Lou Rob's .634 SLG in AAA seemed primed for a bigger breakout. A highly touted international prospect for years, Robert seems like an easy 30-30. My only issue is that OF aren't very valuable in RIBC, because there are so many available on the wire. There are 90 starting outfielders in major league baseball and we only draft 64 of them. We really should consider adding an extra OF to the starting lineup. It's consistently the easiest position to fill in RIBC.
3.01 (33) Rafael Devers 3B BOS
I own Devers in several leagues. His ADP seems too low this year. Shoulda went in the top 20. .859 OPS? Silly. Looks like a case where other players moved up in the rankings, and Devers moved down by default. No regression here. Still the same ol' top 20 pick at a better price.
4.16 (64) Matt Chapman 3B OAK
Well lookie here, Chapman falling all the way back around the long way, 31 picks later. I was thinking of taking him last time, and doubling up on 3B, but wanted the double-up on OF more. Heck, let's just go ahead and double up on both! Castellanos would have been a great pick here also. Next year, remind me not to take 2 OF early. Still holding out hope that Chapman ends up on the Mets at some point. That lineup is scary, but adding another 40 HR makes it terrifying.
5.01 (65) Ketel Marte 2B ARI
I keep hearing about Ketel. I only know Starling. Both are cool names. Can't wait for Starling Ketel to debut. Young kid out of Ohio, looks great, the next big thing. Look him up! But for real doe, a 2B with a .823 OPS going in round 5? Shizz, sign me up, son. That's like DJ LeMahieu money! I'm not big into drafting 2B early, if at all. But like a babyface wrestler, Kettle needs the shine, so I'll lay down and look up at the lights. And your NEWWWW World Tag Team Champion of the World! Marte Superkick Party!
6.16 (96) Giancarlo Stanton UTL NYY
Hi my name is Fosten and I'm an OFaholic. Hi Fosten! I mean, I want to stop, but I just can't resist Giancarlo at 96. Yowzers. His .875 OPS shoulda gone top 10. I know this addiction is not only hurting my family and friends and my teammates, but it's hurting me as well. Giancarlo can't get hurt every year. Can he? Maybe we could hurt together? Just one sip. How many OF have I had already this draft? 2 that I can count. This would be my 3rd. I can still drive home. I'll be fine.
7.01 (97) Wander Franco SS TAM
Fosten, you're drunk again. I know, I know. Way too early. But he's on my team. And that's what counts. I read somewhere that he was the first ever player MLB gave a 80 hit tool on the 20-80 scale. I'm taking the over on Franco getting called up early in the season and being a top 30 player by year's end. And most importantly, he doesn't play OF!
8.16 (128) Miguel Sano 1B MIN
Big bopper. Another player being taken way too low in drafts this year, and last year, and the year before! Look, I get it, the .204 average is slightly better than Mendoza's average. But, this aint an AVG league. Ok, I get it, the .278 OBP is slightly better than Mendoza's OBP. But this aint a... wait. Did I mention the .576 SLG in 2019? Sano was always the best HR hitter coming up through the minors, and it's time to finally show that he's slightly better than Joey Gallo.
9.01 (129) Julio Urias SP LAD
I own Julio Urias in every league possible. Love him. I could care less if he starts or not. He is probably more valuable in fantasy as a long-reliever than as a starter. This is a sub-2.00 pitcher moving forward. He'll be in the Cy Young conversation this year, and you'll be like wait when did that breakout happen? And then you'll read back through my rationales and think, "That Fosten. He really knows his shiznit." Don't call it a breakout, he's been here for years. 2.49 ERA in 2019 was only a start.
10.16 (160) Kyle Schwarber OF WAS
Ok this is my last OF I swear. I'm quitting tomorrow. You guys do know that Schwarber and his .851 OPS should be a top 30 pick in this league, right? I don't even like Schwarber. blue hen has been trying to trade me Schwarber in g20 for like 7 years. I don't want him! But in RIBC, this guy is legit. And I was just tired of seeing him sit out there. C'mon, man!
11.01 (161) Jordan Hicks RP STL
This is Fosten's closer. I don't understand why Gallegos is ranked higher. You do understand that Carlos Martinez is the closer in St. Louis right? Wait, WTH did I draft Hicks? Stay away from the Cardinals bullpen this year. Oh right. This is Fosten's closer.
12.16 (192) Amir Garrett RP CIN
Dangit. Meatwads took Gavin Lux shortly after I picked Schwarber/Hicks. I had picked Lux at 233 in another draft, Meatwads took him 166 here. Thought I could wait one round more. Nope. Good pick Meatwads. Time to look elsewhere. At this point, my offense is strong, there are tons of SP left, so might as well continue building up the pen. I like watching Amir pitch. Lots of fire and intensity. As a Pirates fan, I see alot of him in the NL Central. And if he's closing now, I'm investorated!
13.01 (193) Matt Barnes RP BOS
3 closers in a row. It's my very own closer run! I mean, they say he'll close. And I remember his name from last year's draft. That's about all I know. Ottavino seems like the better pick. I'm mostly just throwing darts here.
14.16 (224) Jameson Taillon SP NYY
Garrett Cole be like, "Yo Yanks. You should sign Tailllon. He dope." Yeah Jameo should be solid again. Was he ever not solid? Pretty sure he was always solid. Both before and after the TJ. I'm glad the Pirates made the trade, because he would have been 45 years old by the time the current crop of prospects mature. [(age of player) plus (we only make the playoffs every 21 years) minus (we're already 5 years into the next drought)]. I'm very happy to draft my SP1 in round 14.
15.01 (225) Andrew Vaughn 1B CWS
Not to be content with Devers, Chapman, and Sano, I still have room for one more CI. This CI can play UTIL once Stanton gets OF eligibility. White Sox seem committed to signing every top prospect to a long-term extension. This shouldn't be any different. Wouldn't be surprised if he makes the opening day roster. Steal this late. Filthy.
16.16 (256) Alex Reyes RP STL
I own Alex Reyes in every league possible. Love him. What happens to a once-in-a-generation pitcher after a few years on the shelf? Post-post-hype breakouts are even bigger, yo. This is a 2.25 ERA pitcher moving forward. Remember how I said Jordan Hicks was Fosten's closer? Alex Reyes is why. Either Reyes is a top 10 starter in baseball, or he's the 2nd best long-reliever in baseball (behind Urias), or he's is the #1 closer in baseball. I want all the Cardinals saves and Jordan Hicks sets up this pick. Alex Reyes is Fosten's closer!
17.01 (257) Mckenzie, Triston SP CLE
Ok, I want at least one team where I own both Triston McKenzie and Mackenzie Gore. So this is the Mckenzie you're supposed to take first? Weird. Mackenzie Gore used to be the higher rated prospect. I think he still is. Ya'll are putting too much stock into 2020 stats. So I guess I have to take the Triston one here and hope the Gore one makes it back.
18.16 (288) MacKenzie Gore SP SDG
M(a)cKenzie squared! Workred out well. I love these "bullpen to start the year" guys. Quality innings in April and May from someone who has mega upside and isn't an obscure reliever. Yes! I remember when the Padres went out and got Machado, because they wanted someone to play alongside Tatis. I remember when the Padres signed a bunch of pitchers, because they wanted someone to play alongside Gore.
19.01 (289) Jonathan Villar SS NYM
Cheap 50 steals. Ok, maybe not 50 steals. But like 48 1/2. He's a temporary substitute before Wander comes up, and if the Mets don't play him enough, I can cut him without remorse. If he does somehow work his way into being the spark of the offense, all the better.
20.16 (320) Alejandro Kirk C TOR
I don't usually draft catchers, but when I do, I like em short and thick. A 5'8" 265 lb catcher? Sign me up! Alejandro has all the makings of an internet meme, and the Blue Jays like his bat enough to make him their DH. This is the pick I think will be the most fun. And catchers are rarely fun.
21.01 (321) Mike Soroka SP ATL
These Atlanta pitchers seem all the same. Good. In 2019, Soroka turned in a 2.68 ERA. A little high for the pitching staff I've assembled so far haha, but it'll do. I hope this pick doesn't become my Achilles Heel, but I'm sure Soroka's will be just fine.
22.16 (352) Amed Rosario SS CLE
I was thinking Framber Valdez with this pick, but SZ grabbed him right in front of me. Well, I guess I have to take another temporary SS until Wander comes up. Nobody likes Amed? Eh, a trip away from New York will do you Wanders... Wanders! Get it? Haha. Hey, he's had some misadventures in centerfield so far, but I'm betting the change of scenery is good in the end.
23.01 (353) Michael Kopech SP CWS
Another "Bullpen to start the year." guy. This is a ridiculously low ADP for Kopech. Before the injury he was a top 3 prospect. I don't mind taking these returning TJ guys. Great value when everyone else sleeps on them. Kopech has had 2 years of rest and should be back at peak performance. Maybe he can finally get his brain off women and pitch again.
24.16 (384) Chistian Pache OF ATL
Noooo! I missed out on Syndergaard. Haha. mmkukla got a heck of a deal taking The Terminator at 356. Ah well, there's always next year. Guess I'll grab some OF lottery tickets at the RIBC register on my way out to go with my OF beer and whiskey. I personally think Pache will always be too highly ranked in fantasy, because his defense is so highly touted. Yet, we don't get points for defense? Hey I'm proposing a new rule, any players drafted in the 24th round, get extra points for defense! Except catchers, this doesn't mean you!
25.01 (385) Jo Adell OF LAA
One more OF shot for the road! I don't expect him to start the year with the Angels, and I don't expect to own him past week 1. Just drafted him, so he was forced to go through waivers again. But I do like Jo Adell, so you better not scoop him up on waivers, or worse yet add him through free agency or I'll be really sad. Or is this some sort of Fosten mind trick? Does he secretly think Adell won't be good this year and he wants me to waste a roster spot? I'm so confused!
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| | | 181 | maspero
ID: 5815687
Mon, Mar 29, 2021, 09:05
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15.07 Mark Melancon, RP, SDP
A declining relief pitcher drafted (maybe too high) with the hope that his experience could earn him a ninth inning role in a good team.
16.10 J.D. Davis, 3D, NYM
A talented hitter who could have been helped by the universal DH rule in the NL, given his lack of defensive aptness. Lost some power last season, but his eye guaranteed a good OBP. A rebound in the power category perfectly in the realm of possibilities.
17.07 Jose Urquidy, SP, HOU
A solid pitcher, even if last year ERA and WHIP could have been bolstered by the abnormal schedule. A regression to his normal numbers could give back some value, at the slot I have picked him.
18.10 Cesar Hernandez, 2B, CLE
A perpetually underrated player, Hernandez keeps on providing late value as a top of the order guy, thanks to a good OBP. If only he would steal some bases…
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| | | 182 | maspero
ID: 5815687
Wed, Mar 31, 2021, 06:10
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19.07 Jesus Aguilar, 1B, MIA
Cheap CI, whose power numbers (remember the great 2018 season in Milwaukee) are not helped by his home stadium. To put in the lineup on the road ideally.
20.10 Jurickson Profar, 2B-OF, SDP
Double role player, with the pedigree of a former top prospect who did not go on to live to the high expectations, to get some depth to my roster. I hope the 21 millions SD paid for him will not rest on the bench.
21.07 Lorenzo Cain, OF, MIL
I drafted the 2018 Cain, I hope that’s understood… Looking for a last hurrah year after a bad 2019 and a non-existent 2020.
22.10 Matt Bush, RP, TEX
Speculative add after injuries to the Rangers’ bullpen. Could come up with some save.
23.07 Tanner Rainey, RP, WAS
Good RP, who seems second in line in Washington after Hand. At round 23 a clear cut second in line is draftable.
24.10 Randal Grichuk, OF, TOR
Had him last year, when he had a sneaky decent year, including a palatable OBP to go with his usual good power numbers. Ready to cut him if the OBP goes too south to be sustainable.
25.07 Cristian Javier, SP, HOU
Young pitcher with a good upside. And by the way the most owned pitcher of the pool…
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