| 1 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 18:13
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2021 RIBC predictions for picks 21-50
Abreu: .370/617 43, 60, 0 7% BB, .350 BABIP, .300 ISO, .411 wOBA, 167 wRC+
The White Sox were the AL surprise of 2020 during the regular season and offseason. They handed the Twins the AL Central at the end of September and then handed the reigns to a drunk dinosaur later in the fall. Tony LaRussa, who handed John McGraw his first managerial loss, will be handing the umpire the Sox line up card filled out with his quill and ink pot. Abreu was the surprise 2020 AL MVP. His season matched his 2014 debut’s rate stats and had the most RBI in baseball. He has been a very steady slugging bat with only 2018 slightly disappointing; you are going to get 100+ RBI from him. His slash lines, though, are a danger to be rather average. His walk rate has hovered between 5.2% and 6.9% the last six years so if he doesn’t hit over .300, he will give you a .325 or .330 OBP like 2018 or 19. His SLG for those years, .473 and .503 were also good but not great. One would imagine his .350 BABIP foretells a decline in his average for 2021 but he does have a surprising .328 lifetime average, better than most slow firstbasemen. While I often think it is lazy to say, “look at two years ago and that’s what he will probably do this year”, it really seems appropriate for Jose. If he knocks in 125 RBI, he will be a good value. If it is just 100, then he will be around the #8 or 9 firstbaseman for the year.
Albies .306/.466 21,19,3, 4% BB, 24% K, .329 wOBA, 103 wRC+
Aussie, Aussie, Aussie, ouch, ouch, ouch! So it seems little Ozzie had a bum wrist most of the year. Even with his hampered hand, he had a nearly identical season with the bat as his 2018, just more Ks. I have to admit that I harbor an unhealthy skepticism of small baseball players and Albies is rather tiny. I will try to put that aside and imagine that going into his age 24 season he could knock 30 balls over the fence. He doesn’t walk much and I don’t follow the Braves enough to know if his 4% walk rate last year was because pitchers were not afraid of him, throwing him everything in the zone or if he bails them out by swinging at all offerings. Over his short career he has two seasons of 350+ OBP, a baseline for a top 50 player in my book. He has one season of .500 SLG. I will give him the benefit of the doubt that his sore wrist sapped his power in 2020 and will imagine he will SLG between 510-550. Get that OBP back to 350 and batting at the top of the Braves lineup you should score 100+ runs. That narrows down his most important variable of his value to steals. He stole 14 and 15 bases in 2018 & 19. If you think he is steal between 18 and 22 bases, he is a top 40 value. If he steals below 9, maybe the Braves think they need to protect his wrist, then he will disappoint you in 2021.
Anderson .357/.529 45, 21, 5. 4.5% BB, .376 wOBA, 143 wRC+ .383 BABIP
Back to back career years from Timmy. When he puts the ball in play, he generally gets on base, he had a ridiculous .399 BABIP in 2019, he seems to have a real knack at that skill as it has given him back-to-back .357 OBP with absurdly low walk rates. He had just 3 3-0 counts in 2020 and 16 in all of 2019. Bryce Harper, on the other hand, had 30 and 64. This allergy to taking a pitch gives him a low floor. The past two years he has hacked at 43-45% of pitches outside of the zone, Vlad Sr. type of approach to hitting but not as much contact. He is not a part of the fly ball revolution, had a career low line drive rate and career high GB% making me think he has a high floor for his batting average but a limitation upon his slugging. Last year 24% of his fly balls went for homers, before that it was between 14-16%. So even though he has slugged over 500 the past two years, I suspect he will be below it in 2021. The more I look at him, the more he resembles Ozzie Albies. And like Ozzie, his steals total is a real difficult stat to forecast, who knows what LaRussa thinks about stealing bases in 2021. Tim has a low floor in three categories – OBP, SLG and RBI. He should score plenty of runs in the high powered Sox offense. If he steals 16 or more bases, he will be a top 40 player again.
Arenado .303/.434 23, 26, 0 .241 BABIP, .308 wOBA, 76 wRC+
Ugh, he had his worst season since he was a rookie in 2013. Coming off a rock solid five year stretch, this was obviously unexpected. He injured his shoulder making a diving stop on a ball in the fifth game of the season and his AC joint bothered him all season. Didn’t need surgery, just rest. That’s the type of news that makes me feel confident that going into his age 30 season he should look a lot more like the Arenado of the previous five seasons. The other news is that Nolan thinks management is awful at their jobs and he is right. But with the contract he has it is very unlikely he can be traded so Mile High home at bats look like they will continue in 2021 (WRONG!) I don’t need to dive deep into his batted ball numbers, I think he will likely produce top 25 numbers and that is without the help of steals. His draft position will be hampered by his poor 2020 performance and fear that his new home stadium will depress his numbers, making him one of my top profit targets of 2021.
Bregman .350/.451 19,22,0 .345 wOBP, 122 wRC+, .254 BABIP. 5 barrels
Perhaps the face of the Stros’ cheating scandal and the ass pitchers and fans wanted to bean the most. I understand that he tweaked his hammy at some point in the season, that may be why he didn’t attempt a stolen base. His 13.3% BB rate was a career low, but damn, that’s still awesome. He did poorly against breaking balls last year, particularly the slider, but in 2018-19 he was elite vs. the slider, so perhaps 2020 was simply a rebuke by the Baseball Gods – how’s that for scientific sabermetrics? Could also be that he would sit on the breaking stuff because he didn’t hear the garbage can ping. Though I don’t think he will hit 40 homers again, he is too talented and young to not have some regression back to his former All-Star status. I suspect that I will have Alex on one of my teams in 2021.
Bogaerts .364/.502 36, 28, 8 .368 wOBP, 130 wRC+
Xander has now had three straight seasons of slugging over .500. Coming into the 2018 season, he looked like Amed Rosario, a ten homer, 15 steals guy. He declined to be limited as such and if not for the Golden Age of fantasy shortstops, he would be more revered. He mashed at cleanup for the Sox in 2019 like Albert Belle .384/.555 33 HR, 110 runs, 117 RBI and 4 steals. It looks like he may not knock in 100 RBI again because the Sox offense is so meager, but his 8 steals in 2020 was an exciting development. If he gets back to stealing 15 or so bases with a .850+ OPS, he will be a top 30-35 player. This is his age 28 season, he’s the face of the Red Sox and does not have a flaw in his game. The only interesting thing I found looking at his stats was in 2019 there was a HUGE difference in his defensive metrics, one site gave him a +8 for the season while another was -20 and slashed his WAR in half.
Buehler 3.44/0.95 1 win .198 BABIP, 10.31 K/9
The way I feel discussing a pitcher who started only eight games last year feels a whole lot different than discussing a batter who had 260+ plate appearances. Buehler’s ERA was not top 50 stuff but his WHIP certainly was. Maybe if he played on a good team he would have had more than one win HA! I am surprised he turns 27 this season, he feels like a sophomore. He gave up 8 homers in his seven games or 1.72/9. That is what happens when 42% of the balls hit were fly balls and 18% of those go over the fence. Still feel like there was a lot of short season variance here, he looked dominant in the Post Season. He had a top five fastball last season, I think his regression will keep him in the top 30.
Castillo 3.21/1.23 11.44 K/9, 0.64 HR/9, .329 BABIP
Luis followed up a great 2019 with a nearly identical 2020. He’s a great groundball pitcher (58%) He somehow manages to keep his fly balls from leaving the park in Cincinnati (12.5% HR/FB) Even though he has elite fastball velocity (97.5 MPH), he throws his change up more than his fastball and that has lead to his great results. He had the fifth best FIP in 2020. I think his elevated BABIP may be why his ERA was above 3.00. He is 28, things are pointing to an even better season in 2021.
Devers .310/.483 32, 43, 0 5% BB, 27% K, .337 wOBA, 109 wRC+
The young kid had a phenomenal age 22 season in 2019. He was a first round pick last year and started real slow, ending up with disappointing numbers. His second half .341/.556 .377 wOBA, 137 wRC+ looked more like the Raphel of 2019. However, he had a career low walk rate and career high strikeout rate that was there for both halves of 2020. He went 8 for 16 on stolen bases in 19 and wisely stopped attempting to steal last year. Oddly for someone with such a low OBP and no steals, he batted second for Boston. He was near the league leaders in RBI last year but that may have been a mirage as he had a 1.019 OPS with men in scoring position. So, if you are the type to look at his second half results and come up with some excuse for his poor first half and want to pencil in 100 runs and RBI, he could be a top 40 bat. If you are leery of a heavy, no steals, can’t take a walk, maybe is disinterested when his team sucks kid, he may just be an average thirdbaseman who doesn’t crack the top 100.
Flaherty 4.91/1.21 10.93 K/9, 3.57 BB/9 3.42 FIP
That ERA is unsightly. He had entered the 2020 season as a 24 year old coming off two excellent seasons, an ERA below 3.00, a tiny WHIP, 10.7 K/9. He really was lighting up the league in the second half of 2019 – 0.91 ERA/0.70 WHIP, 27.6% K-BB%. He was very hyped for good reason. What happened? His fastball went from awesome to not very good – his velocity went down a tick, he threw it right in the middle of the plate and at 44% of his pitches, he throws it too much. His exit velocity was a career high at 90 MPH and he may have actually been lucky last year that his ERA was not worse. A staggering 36% of his batted balls were line drives. That probably won’t happen again. He has an elite slider and should be throwing it a lot more. That simple change would certainly improve his 2021. I am leery. I suspect there will be enough guys counting on a bounce back that I will end up with zero shares.
Gallen 2.75/1.11 10.25 K/9
Um, who in the hell is Zac Gallen? Some bespectacled Dback sans notoriety. His 93 MPH fastball is not fast, but it is very effective. His curveball is elite (.129 wOBA, 45% K rate). He has only thrown for 150 innings in the majors over two seasons. I honestly don’t know what to make of him. Last year his projections suggested an ERA north of 4.00, he has similar projections for 2021. In order to really dive deeper, one would have to know what to make of his minor league innings, I can’t. I will put him below the top 50.
Giolito 3.48/1.04 12.07 K/9, 3.12 FIP
Lucas is legit. He went from the worst pitcher in baseball in 2018 (6.13 ERA, 6.5 K/9) to a top 20 arm 2019-20. His fastball and change up are outstanding. He improved his swing and miss percentage, lowered all of his batted ball outcomes, increased his strike out rate all while his fastball velocity dipped a tick. He combines an elite strikeout rate with a very low WHIP on a team that should win a lot of games. He has the goods for a sub 3.00 ERA.
Glasnow 4.06/1.13 14.28 K/9 2.75 xFIP, 23.4% HR/FB
Wait, wha? Tyler is 6’8”? Let’s cut to the chase, he gave up a lot of homers in 2020. His fastball velocity is top shelf but he leaves it over the middle middle and it goes BOOM. There is a lot of talk about control/command of pitches but most of it deals with being in or out of the strike zone. Not much talk about a guy’s ability to keep the pitch out of the middle of the zone. On a squad as high tech and saber-centric as the Rays, you would think they would address this distressing flaw in the tall guy’s heater. The exit velocity and launch angles are a vicious indictment for a pitch that was pretty good in 2019. He has a great curveball but now that he is a two pitch only guy, batters are not swinging at his curveball as much and waiting on his heater. He has an arm injury history and pitches on a team that will remove you from a start where you have given up one hit, no runs and have thrown only 61 pitches, how are you supposed to win your starts? He could be lights out and then hurt like 2019. He could be throwing up meat and healthy all year like 2020, or stay healthy and have a great season for the first time in his career. This seems like an awfully high spot in the draft to take that chance.
Jimenez .332/559 26, 41, 0 5% BB, 25% K, .373 wOBA, 141 wRC+,
Here’s another age 24 player who doesn’t take a walk or steal bases, speaks Spanish and plays for the Sox, but these are Blanco. Eloy is one of two rising stars in the White Sox outfield, he is the one with the best first name and worst defense. He has never attempted to steal a base in the majors. He doesn’t hit enough fly balls, only 28.5% of his hits were flyballs, but 31% of those went yard. I think those two numbers (and his Statcast velocity) have lead touts to predict that he could hit 40 homers a year. He really needs to hit more flies, last year his OPS on flyballs was 1.855! and a .726 wOBA! Eloy’s key to fantasy stardom relies on his power, if he slugs between 550 and 600, he will also knock in over 100. His OBP is like his defense, you cringe when you see a ball is headed towards him, hoping that he will not screw up and he is at least average. I didn’t realize how similar Eloy and Devers were and I think it’s because Devers gets a lot more hype. For 2021, I would take Eloy.
Judge .336/554 23, 22, 0 8.8% BB, .375 wOBA, 140 wRC+
Aaron is from tiny, insignificant Linden, CA. He was adopted, of course, because the people of Linden are incapable of producing quality athletes of their own… I went to high school nearby and my buddy is their high school wrestling coach. Aaron played tight end and center for their basketball team. I don’t need to remind you about his record breaking rookie year or the fact that he has not approached that level of production again. Like his teammate Stanton, these two godlike freaks of nature spend a lot of time in the shop. I imagine a Star Wars-type scene where Aaron and Giancarlo’s detached heads are on a work bench chatting while an army of dwarfs work on their broken down bodies. I do my best to avoid listening to anything regarding the Yankees so I don’t remember what types of injuries have befallen The Judge, I honestly can’t forecast the likelihood of a full season of health so I am going to focus on his production from 2018-20. Judge had an outstanding 15.3% and 14.3% BB rate in 18 & 19 leading to .392 and .381 OBP. His walk rate fell to 8.8% coupled with a career low batting average of .257 gave him a pedestrian .336 OBP last year. I can understand why Aaron Boone would put a .392 OBP player in the two spot in the lineup but that has limited Judge’s RBI opportunities quite a bit even with the stud LeMahieu batting lead off. Judge came to the plate with the bases empty a lot in 2019 so he ended up with only 55 RBI. I’m looking for splits that might show a weakness, MLB hasn’t decided whether to shift against him or not, the shift doesn’t seem to negatively affect him. He does not have a pronounced weakness at home or the road, v. R or L. He has a very consistent 32% HR/FB rate which is elite. Let’s say he gets to 600+ PA in 2021. And let’s say that last year’s .283 BABIP was unlucky and he gets back to something more like .330. His value may very well rest on what walk rate he generates, is it back to his elite rate in the teens like 18 & 19 or is it in the single digits like last year? I will say that even at 600 PA, a .340 OBP and his new normal .550 SLG will probably generate between 80-90 runs/RBI with little to no steals and that looks like Eloy/Devers territory. And he has only had 600 PA once in his career. His profile is one that draws the risk takers’ attention while scaring the risk adverse. In RIBC where there are no DL slots, I have to knock him towards the bottom of the top 50 at the moment. If we have a Spring Training and he hits some moon shots, I am certain that I will not have to entertain the notion of drafting him as one of you degenerate gamblers will scoop him up early.
Kershaw 2.16/0.84, 9.57 K/9, 3.6 BB%
When a 0.84 is not your career best WHIP, you are headed to the HOF. I do not like the Dodgers and for completely aesthetic reasons, I loath Clayton Kershaw. He reminds me of Dirk Nowitzki and his fuggly knee-cocked, barely jumped off the floor shot that makes you lose your appetite. Clayton’s wind up and delivery are just ugly, herky-jerky yuck. Regardless of how well he keeps players off the bases and from scoring, watching Kershaw pitch is just not as rewarding as just about ANY other pitcher. So you would think I would be elated with his horrendous bad luck in the post season for his career, the way he seems to sink the Dodgers year after year. I don’t, I actually started to feel bad for him and his untimely gopher balls and I do remember plenty of post season successful starts before this year. It was past time for the 800 pound payroll in the room to finally hoist the trophy. I do not have any sabermetrical insights into Kershaw for 2021. He has shown that when he gets on the mound there are few better. He doesn’t have the K rate of the very best starters. His value will derive from how many innings he pitches. How does anyone accurately predict that?
LeMahieu .421/.590 41, 27, 3 .429 wOBA, 177 wRC+
DJ is the type of Yankee that I love in fantasy and angers me in real life. I love his sneaky power and the way he has disrupted their lineup, I hate how the Yankees got such a ridiculous bargain. I would LOVE for the Bombers to let him sign elsewhere and put their eggs in the Gleyber basket. Would HATE it if they sign him to a multi year deal and send Gleyber to the Indians for Lindor! DJ’s wOBA was fourth best overall. Since 2015, he has a .316/.373/.457 slash line. It’s that final slash that has changed so much since coming to the Yanks. He LOVED the Bronx last year - .505/.813 for a Bonds’ like 1.317 OPS. It wasn’t so pronounced in 2019, his slugging % was .459 road, .585 home. So, if he stays with the NYY, I love his outlook for 2021, if he signs someplace with a tough home park like the Giants or someone, that would concern me. Looking at his splits, wow, he hit .505 last year going the opposite way, seven oppo tacos of his ten. You can’t shift him, you can only hope to contain him and maybe the best way to do that is have him sign with the Marlins or the A’s. DJ has elite contact skills, his power bloomed the past two years, and even without steals he is one of the best infield bats in baseball.
Maeda 2.70/0.75 32.3 K%, 4% BB, 3.00 FIP, 24.7 Hard hit %
LOVED this trade for the Twins. Kenta is seriously underrated. He barely walks anyone, strikes out more than most and induces very weak contact. That WHIP will carry your fantasy team. The Twins got him to reduce his fastball from over 40% to just 19% and it went from an average pitch to outstanding. Paired with an elite change up and a very good slider, he was the whole package. With the retirement of Hisashi Iwakuma, Kenta is my current Nihongo speaking 告白 こくはく. His .208 BABIP may go up, but his 18.8% HR/FB will probably go down. I’m loving what being on the Twins does for Maeda and I have him HIGH up on my list.
Marte .340/.430 36, 27, 10 .333 wOBA, 109 wRC+ 4.8% BB, .149 ISO
Starling finally left the Iron City to showcase his speed first for the Dbacks, then in teal for the Marlins. Why is it that I feel perpetually disappointed with him? He has consistently refused to take a walk. He did steal 47 bases in 2016. His only terrible season was 2017. He has a career .450 SLG% and is usually right around that mark. Combine that with 30 steals in today’s market and that is a very good player. It was a very small sample size but his numbers in Miami were pretty bad. Will Mattingly set him loose on the basepaths? Will he get on often enough to make a difference? He took two walks and struck out 22 times as a Marlin. He hit 16 singles, so the fact that he stole five bases in Miami out of 18 times on first, that bodes well. I should shake my unwarranted gloom and pencil him in for a top 50 slot but I suspect his slugging will be below .450 if he stays in Miami.
Merrifield .325/.440 38, 30, 12 4.5% BB, .329 wOBA, 106 wRC+
Whit is all about the steals. You can count on him playing every day, but he is not young, this will be his age 32 season. He had a career low walk rate and BABIP. There is a world of difference between a .350+ OBP and .325. Even more of a difference between stealing 45 and 20 bases. You can forgive a 750 OPS if it comes with 30-40 steals. You need a 800+ OPS if you will only chip in 20 steals as a top 50 pick. He had a pronounced home/away split last year but for his career there is none. He has a very team friendly contract, maybe the Royals should ship him somewhere for a basket of prospects. I’m under the impression that the Royals are still one of the greenest lights for base stealers and a move away would likely hamper his SB totals. So… pros: Very healthy, solid line drive hitter, very fast, steals. Con: Doesn’t walk, few homers so low SLG, may get traded and stops stealing. This is a strange sentence to write but if he gets traded away from Kaufman Stadium, his value will plummet. That risk puts him towards the bottom of this list.
Mondesi .294/.416 33, 22, 24 .305 wOBA, 89 wRC+ 4.7% BB, 30% K, .350 BABIP
Adalberto had his first “full” season and led the majors in steals. Combine his last two years – 161 games, 676 PA, he stole 67 bases. I didn’t realize that last year he was wretched for the first forty games – a .479 OPS. His final 19 - .370/.425/.740 with 6 HR, 14 SB, 22 R, and 16 RBI. What do you take from such a torrid finish? Is that what is possible when he is healthy? Is the only reason he hasn’t struck out 200 times simply because he hasn’t had a season with 600+ PA? He has the most upside of this entire group. He has the ability to steal 65 bases in 2021 and has shown that he could slug 500+. He will always have a low OBP floor. Last year he had a huge home/away and lefty/righty split – Home .378/.563 .398 wOBA, 151 wRC+ .435 BABIP Away - .217/.284 .218 wOBA, 32 wRC+ .270 BABIP. Versus Righties .278/.323 33% K, versus Lefties .345/.698. 20% K. These splits were fall less pronounced in 2018 & 19, may have just been small sample sizes. I’m guessing that over his career when he is hitting the ball well he gets placed at the top or two spot in the lineup and when he is scufflin he’s moved down to seven or eight. A .300/500 with 65 steals is a top 5 finish, a .280/.420 with 40 steals looks like his floor and that is still pretty damn good. I like him a lot.
Nola 3.28/1.08 12.11 K/9, 19.6% HR/FB
Before 2019, I would have had no clue what Aaron’s father’s first name was, but once his older brother Austin started playing for the Mariner’s, I now suspect that it starts with an A. Surely you have noticed that brothers who have the same first letter in their first name are usually following their father. So do you think it’s August? Adolph? Adelbert? Aaron had a very good season which now gives him two. He had a better ERA in 2018, but this year may have been even better overall. He threw his changeup a lot more, he started using it against right handers as well as lefties. His fastball is below league average velocity, but his curveball is so good – 42% swing and miss, that he has an elite strikeout rate regardless. Looking at just his four seam heater, perhaps 2020 he got a little lucky. With no change in pitch or exit velocity, he went from 2019 .269/.509/.376 (BA/SLG/wOBA) to .135/.327/.222. He will turn 28 this season. The Phillies bullpen is garbage so his chances of a lot of wins is small. I like him to stay healthy and strike out a lot of batters but a 3.50/1.25 line is likely, putting him on the edge of a top 50 player.
Ozuna .431/.636 38, 56, 0 .444 wOBA, 179 wRC+ 14.2% BB, .391 BABIP
What a year! The Braves would be insane not to resign him, just look at how much fun Acuña had dancing around with Marcell. Why he won’t repeat: He has had six seasons of OBP between .302 and .328 versus two years with .431 and .378. Those six seasons his slugging was between .383 and .472. His career numbers coming into 2020 were .329/.455 7.5% BB, .183 ISO, .314 BABIP, .336 wOBA, 112 wRC+. Why he should hold his gains: His exit velocity, launch angle, barrel % and hard hit % were all career highs and elite. His 26.5% HR/FB is sustainable. He has learned to take a walk, he has no pronounced difference in his splits, he beats the shift. He didn’t steal a single base for the Braves but he did steal 12 in 2019 for the Cards. His .391 BABIP is unsustainable so he probably won’t have another .444 wOBA but few batters ever have. I like his chances of surpassing his historical projections.
Realmuto .349/.491 33,32,4 .361 wOBA, 121 wRC+
JT had a career year for the Phils but honestly it wasn’t that much out of the ordinary. The past three years have all been pretty similar. He going to be 30 years old this season and he doesn’t know where he will be calling home yet (as expected, re-signed with Phils) He went from a terrible home park to one of the best in Philly in 2019. He exchanged 10% of his batted balls from liners into ground balls last year despite an increase in barrels. He should correct that which should give him a boost in all categories. He kept his slugging up because he had a career best HR/FB% of 23.4%. He had a fairly pronounced LvR split. League average .748 OPS v. righties, 1.091 v. lefties. Hopefully the NL will keep the DH and he can hit against lefties on his days he’s not behind the plate. Well, maybe last year was a fluke because his career numbers has no split whatsoever. Home and away splits, however, were enlightening. Playing at home in Miami was awful for JT, in over 1000 PA, he had a disappointing .292/.384 .279 BABIP, 87 wRC+, .291 wOBA. On the road, he was .327/.442 .319 BABIP, .329 wOBA, 108 wRC+. I could excuse JT if he wanted to take a mental health three day weekend when he travels to south Florida in 2021 to avoid PTSD flashbacks. He should repeat as the number one catcher in 2021 and catcher is the only position, I believe, that has scarcity. The amount of added value to account for that scarcity is left up to the individual user. I probably would not add enough value to JT’s projection to put him in the top 50.
Rendon .418/.497 29, 31, 0 .395 wOBA, 156 wRC+ 16.4% BB, 13.4% K
He had a pretty amazing season for someone who complained about a sore wrist in August, maybe that explains why he had his first sub 500 slugging since 2016. The man consistently avoids striking out, had a career best walk rate and the sixth best OBP in baseball. He has a very high floor, a pretty safe bet for a 900 OPS. His counting stats suffer playing for the Angels and it looks like they have given him a permanent red light – no steals. His contact skills are ridiculous and eerily steady. He only swings and misses 5% of the time, every year. He will hit the ball over 90% of the times he swings at it in the zone. Such consistency, about a safe a bet in the top 50 as you can find.
Robert .302/.436 33, 31, 9 .316 wOBA, 101 wRC+. 32% K rate.
He started so very hot, hitting .354/.415/.542 and a 177 wRC+ before falling apart. In Sept he hit .136/.237/.173. He has a very low OBP floor. 22% swinging strike percentage. He only hits the ball with 61% of his swings. No real reason to walk him, he’ll miss your pitch. How does a Cuban end up with the last name Robert? Last year, when they say he turned 23 in August, he hit 30 homers, scored 108, 92 RBI and 36 steals in 122 games at three levels. He’s a wizard in the field, can he cut his strikeouts down and get his OPS to 750+? He will probably be in the top ten in steals with close to 30. I’m not optimistic he belongs in the top 50.
Scherzer 3.74/1.38 12.3 K/9, .355 BABIP, 14.3% HR/FB
First time we have not seen a 2 as the first digit of a Max ERA in a long time. Having owned Max in a keeper league for many years, I have memories of tough stretches that would take his ERA from the peak of Mount Olympus and bring it back to the realm of mortals but something seems different this time. He will turn 37 midway through the 2021 season and you have to suspect that 2600 IP may start taking a toll. His exit velocity was a career high, his fastball velocity is going down. His curveball was awful last year - .471 batting average and .706 SLG. His changeup wasn’t very good, either - .328/.466. His fastball has gone from elite to average – 2018 wOBA .254, 2019 . 306, 2020 .366. And 56.2% of the hits off his fastball were hard hits. 34% LD rate. In 2017, his batting average against was .177, it has steadily gotten worse, now .266. Slugging - .319, now .424. He really needed that high strike out rate to keep him from a bigger disaster. Coming into 2020, not many saw age related decline – I saw forecasts of 2.71/1.04. I fear we have missed his age related decline and it may rapidly accelerate in 2021.
Seager .358/.585 38, 41, 1 .394 wOBA, 151 wRC+ NLCS and World Series MVP
What a way to end such a great bounceback season. It’s easy to forget that he was only 21 years old when he debuted in 2015 and crushed a .986 OPS in 27 games. Age 22 and he wins the NL Rookie of the Year. He had TJ surgery in 2018 and wasn’t healthy in 2019, either. This year he crushed, literally, he had the fourth highest hard hit rate in baseball. There are reasons to believe he could have an even better 2021 in addition to his ridiculous post season. He had a career low walk rate. He could improve his HR/FB rate as his hard hits start going over the fence. His BABIP of .309 should be better for someone with his exit velocity. He has the tools to go .370-380/600 & 220 R/RBI. That’s top 25 stuff. He has every incentive to have a career year as he will be looking at signing a $300+ million contract in 2021. He could also get hurt and look like the Corey of 2019. I am betting on the big numbers.
Tucker .325/.512 33, 42, 8 .349 wOBA, 125 wRC+ 8%BB
I really had no idea Kyle could do this. I guess his minor league stats should have clued me in. Last year only 11 players stole more bases than Tucker and of the players with eight or more steals, only six had a higher slugging. In 2019 at triple A, he hit 34 homers, stole 30 bases and slashed .354/.555. In 2018 it was .400/.590 24 and 20. Why were the Stros giving at bats to Josh Reddick? His walk rate was double digits in AAA so he may be trending towards that in the Bigs. He’s going to be 24 this year, I like his chances of an increase in power, his HR/FB% could improve with a return to his launch angle and barrel % of last season as well as an age improvement in power. He will need to improve his numbers against lefties if he wants to take the next step. With Yordan returning to the Stros lineup and another year between them and The Scandal, I like Tucker’s spot in a potent lineup. I think Kyle will be a profitable player in 2021.
Woodruff 3.05/0.99 11.12 K/9 6.1% BB rate, .269 BABIP 3.30 SIERA, 3.29 FIP, 3.20 xFIP
Brandon is awesome. I could seriously just stop there. He is underrated and will likely provide profit when you draft him in 2021 because he is under appreciated. He has elite FB velocity – 97 MPH, he has five good pitches, he keeps the ball in the park and he has a great K rate. The Brewers have an excellent bullpen so he should have a better win/loss record in 2021. He will be 28 this season and the most innings he has thrown in The Bigs is 121, is this the reason he does not gather as much enthusiasm that his numbers should?
My TOP 50 players for 2021
1. Juan Soto
2. Acuña
3. Trout
4. Tatis, Jr.
5. Trey Turner
6. Betts
7. de Grom
8. Cole
9. Story
10. Freeman
11. Jose Ramirez
12. Bieber
13. Bryce Harper
14. Bauer
15. Machado
16. Yellich
17. DJ LeMahieu
18. Darvish
19. Mondesi
20. Kershaw
21. Lindor
22. Corey Seager
23. Bellinger
24. Buehler
25. Aaron Nola
26. Giolito
27. Scherzer
28. Arenado
29. Luis Castillo
30. Kyle Tucker
31. Abreu
32. K Maeda
33. A Rendon
34. X Bogaerts
35. Bregman
36. Eloy
37. L Robert
38. Ozzie Albies
39. Bo Bichette
40. Brandon Woodruff
41. M Ozuna
42. J Flaherty
43. Aaron Judge
44. Whit Merrifield
final six in no particular order – T Anderson, Devers, JT Realmuto, S Marte, Gallen, Glasnow.
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