2 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318 Sat, Oct 24, 2020, 15:55
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I’m home recovering from my tonsillectomy so I thought I would do a COVID – season recap. Shortest regular season ever, what will it mean for fantasy? Will any lessons learned from this year apply to the future? Hmm.
One fact that is undeniable is that the draft this year is more important than any other simply because there is a lot less time to make up for a poor one. Some trends in baseball seemed to intensify in the shortened season, pitchers threw fewer innings per start. Sorta ends the argument in favor of Quality Starts over wins as there are so very few QS. But wins are now even more meaningless as some third rate reliever comes into the game in the fifth inning and gets a win because the analytics tells the manager to pull the starter after four.
A 1.00K/IP was once elite, now it’s just above average. And saves… for the longest time the debate over saves was about how difficult it was to chase saves as managers were changing the closer so frequently, now the idea of a closer is starting to look like a dinosaur. The Rays had 13 different pitchers record a save in just 60 games. You can’t even call that a committee.
Looking at our draft this year, I think we could say that we are in the Golden Era of First Round picks. Like last year, there were so many excellent players taken the first round and only two of the sixteen that could be called busts. I mean, Christian Yellich was considered a disappointment but he would have been the fourth best player taken in the second round! Trey Turner was the second best player overall in our format and was taken 12th this year. Juan Soto, who missed a significant portion of the season was the third best player overall. Jose Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, Trevor Story, Acuna, Geritt Cole and Jason Degrom were all great players and those of us who have been doing this for decades know this is unusually profitable. Judy stretched to take her Phillie and bryce rewarded her with his best season since 2015. A 20 steals pace, is he teasing us? The busts were Noland Arenado and Alex Bregman and Toral didn’t seem to mind that Arenado had a down year.
Because his second round pick, Freddy Freeman, had the overall best season according to our player rater. He was drafted before his diagnosis with COIVD-19 and the stories of his case must have frightened the Canadian. Not many people in April would have imagined Freeman coming back and playing so well. Thumper had a poor pick with Walker Buehler at #16 but more than made up for it with Tatis Jr. at #17. He finished with the 5th best overall performance. After those two, though, the second round was pretty disappointing. I was happy with myself after picking the #13 draft slot because I felt I got a high quality pick in the first round and therefore got a high pick on the way back in the second round. Well, you have got to land that pick in order for your plan to work and I certainly did not #20 JD Martinez. He fell off a cliff. Xander Boegarts was the third best pick of the round and much to my surprise, Tim Anderson turned out to be a good pick even though he was a six round stretch. In a theme we will see a lot this season, two Astros were terrible picks. Yordan Alvarez played in two games so was a waste in the second round and Jose Altuve waited until the post season to hit much to the chagrin of Tosh.
The Third Round had three great picks and six busts. Shane Bieber was the greatest arm of 2020 and one of the reasons youngroman finished second. I wrote up in my draft synopsis that I had second thoughts about taking Manny Machado. HA! The Pads were a feel good story of 2020, the emergence of Tatis Jr., the tremendous home run power of the whole line up, Dinelson Lamet and Machado’s MVP type season. The pundits love to talk about his home and away splits in his career and how he has been pedestrian away from Camden Yards, but he can simply crush and I am grateful. Adelberto Mondesi had a quietly good season for valkarie. On the other hand, Steven Strasburg rewarded the Nationals front office with a true Strasburg performance, hurt himself and let the fans think that maybe Anthony Rendon should have been given that money. Kris Bryant absolutely stunk. Remember how he and Rizzo were media darlings far more than Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramriez? The talk is now that the Cubs may non tender Bryant. I wouldn’t draft him in the tenth round next year. Jose Baez was also awful as was Austin Meadows and Pat Corbin. Yoan Moncada, consider yourself lucky that those guys drew attention away from your disappointment.
The Fourth Round had fewer outright busts. Yu Darvish had an excellent year, it was his pitching and Hendricks that got the Cubs into the post season, not their bats. The second best pick of the round was DJ Lemahieu, sparkyanne’s best pick. He followed up his excellent Yankee debut with an even better season, winning the batting crown and posting an OPS north of 1.000. Another Royal middle infielder, Whit Merrifield, continued to marry four average categories with his high steals numbers to produce excellent fantasy seasons. Toral took Clayton Kershaw in this round, the first of four arms that served as the base of the best staff in our league. The biggest bust of the round was Tommy Pham who celebrated his wretched 2020 by getting stabbed. Justin Verlander was also stabbed, but by trained surgeons and while his recovery will be longer than Pham’s, it was necessary. Josh Donaldson was disappointing in both the regular and post season. Carlos Correa had plenty of bat flips and not so righteous indignation in the post season but not the regular, much to the chagrin of bluehen. Joey Gallo complained that Globe Life Stadium is too big so therefore it’s not his fault he sucked.
The fifth round starred Jose Abreu. He was the star of the young squad on the upswing on the South Side. Judy was rewarded for her loyalty to Aaron Nola with an excellent year and Toral’s pick of Giolitto was profitable. Otherwise this round was pretty lame. Kirby Yates stunk. The Braves nearly made it to the World Series but that was in spite of Mike Soroka. Victor Robles disappointed Tosh and Thor couldn’t pick up his hammer this year. Unless Charlie Morton is pitching in a game 7, you should avoid him in 2020.
The sixth round was highlighted by master troll, MAGA enthusiast and Driveline evangelist Trevor Bauer. 100K, 1.73 ERA/0.79 WHIP and five wins. Outstanding year. He should be a second round pick next year but for some reason I think he will come at discount. Nelson Cruz again spit in the eye of age related decline and put up Big Papi numbers for the Twins. I really wanted him to slip two more spots but when he didn’t I ended up with Eloy Jimenez who made another step towards stardom. Excellent slugging percentage and quite a few Not Top Ten moments in the field. The busts were Roberto Osuna who was hurt and Josh Bell. Don’t know what went wrong with Josh, the Pirates were historically bad. Josh lost .200 points off his slugging %. Career lows in every category. He had 37 homers and 116 RBI last year, how can you even begin to guess what he will do in 2021?
Round Seven started out with a whimper. Mitch Garver was godawful and lost his job pretty early in the season. Here’s a guy with an amazing .995 OPS last year, 31 homers in 359 plate appearances. An elite .404 wOBA, ninth overall, better than Juan Soto. This year, .232. SLG% goes from .630 to .264. Drop offs like that just don’t happen! Almost as bad was Andrew Benintendi. I’ve never been a fan, thought he was overrated but even I was surprised at just how pathetic he was in 2020. He came to the plate 52 times. He struck out 17, walked 11 and got four hits. Three singles and a double. I sure hope that the pitchers who walked him this year were yelled at or removed by the manager. A .128 SLG%. Without pitchers hitting in the NL, was anyone lower than that? The star of the round was Marcell Ozuna picked by Tosh. An outstanding 1.067 OPS and second overall with 56 RBI. He finished the season batting .394 with 10 HR, 33 RBI and 19 runs in Sept. I mention this because Tosh and I are in a local league together and he was offered Ozuna in a trade but declined. I did pick up Ozuna and rode him to my first league title! Randy finished one spot behind me in both of our leagues much to my delight! Toral took Liam Hendricks who ended up as the second best pick of this round. Biggio, Woodruff and K Jansen were the other good picks. Corey Kluber disappointing and in his rationales Species crowed about the good luck he had when Spring Training was canceled right before his pick making G Stanton a steal at that point. Doesn’t matter how long you let Stanton rest, swinging the bat causes him injury, he was born to disappoint.
Round Eight had lots of disappointments, but not for me. Brad Hand was often panned by the touts as a likely loser of the closer role with J Karinchak in the wings eager to take over. Well, Karen did have a great season but he didn’t unseat Hand who had the second best reliever season overall, sixth for all pitchers. I was surprised when I realized that Michael Conforto had such a great year. I didn’t follow the Mets at all and don’t remember hearing anything about Conforto, a .322/.412/.515 is excellent but it was fueled by a .412 BABIP so a correction is in order. While Bryce and Nola rewarded Judy, Scott Kingery was a curse. He had the third worst season of the players drafted. Don’t know how long she kept him in her lineup, he finished the year “hitting” .159/.228/.283 with no steals. Putrid. Gary Sanchez, Ken Giles, and E Escobar were all awful. Chris Sale didn’t throw a pitch and Great One wished that Craig Kimbrel had not.
Round Nine was the second round in a row where my pick was the best, this time Corey Seager. Corey kept the momentum into the post season where he is breaking Dodger and shortstop post season records it seems every night. Even with a career low walk rate, he is having a career year with the bat. .307/.358./585. He’s not even barreling up at his normal rate, it would not be a surprise if he improves his numbers in 2021. He has been healthy for the first time in a while and should garner a huge contract from the Dodgers here soon. Max Fried had a great season and was a big reason the Braves won the AL East. R Iglesias was one of the few closer lottery tix that paid off. Zack Gallen had profitable year, too. There were some really awful picks in this round, the worst was Mallex Smith. He had a .170/.178 OBP/SLG with two steals. This was the worst of four terrible picks in a row for valkarie – Gary Sanchez, Mallex, Trey Mancini and Carlos Martinez. Tough stretch. Danny Santana, Gavin Lux and Amed Rosario were all awful, as well. Yuli Gurriel was the latest Astro to stink and Eduardo Rodriguez opted not to play this year.
The tenth round had some nice arms. Dinelson Lamet and Lance Lynn put in great seasons for Great One and Goatlocker. Alex Colome and Ryu were also profitable. Brandon Lowe may have struggled in the post season, but he was a great pick for the NY Jammers. Oscar Mercado was the second worst pick in the draft. An identical .174 OBP and SLG, oh, but those three steals! Two lotto tix that blew up in their managers’ faces were Ian Kennedy and Hansel Robles. Elvis Andrus had his worst year ever. Even with one of his best walk rates and his second best ISO rates, he had a .252/.330 with a measly three steals. I had to count this again but he has been the Rangers’ starting SS for thirteen straight seasons and he is only 32. The MadBum was just a Bum. Adam Eaton and Ryan McMahon were unprofitable.
I look at the next five rounds and wonder what could have been. I had drafted Kenta Maeda and Luke Voit in Happy Baseball, a 20 team rotoguru league that drafts before RIBC and I should have done so here, too. Instead, in the 11th I went with Encarnacion over Maeda and Toral grabbed the fifth best pitcher of 2020. The next round I took the opt out David Price and eventually bluehen took Voit. I also drafted R Odor and probably kept him in my lineup too long. The best picks after Maeda for the rest of the draft were Yaz, Voit, Marco Gonzalez, Kyle Hendricks, Trent Grisham, Zach Davies, Corbin Burnes, Wil Myers, Kyle Tucker and, of course, TAY – oh - Scar Hernandez, who was headed towards a top 10 finish before tweaking his oblique.
The worst drafted player was Jo Adell, taken by valkarie in the 22nd round. I know Jo wasn’t called up until later in the season but I see him on Val’s roster, did you keep him rostered the whole year? I see you kept Carlos Martinez, too. What in the hell for? 9.90/2.40 with no wins or saves?
The biggest disappointment, even more than Jo Adell, was the fact that sparkyanne, blue hen, NY Jammers, and Goatlocker made so few moves. It’s unlike RIBC to have teams abandoned. Sparkyanne and bluehen didn’t get anywhere near the number of innings pitched allowed. This inactivity made it easy for Toral and other top teams to pick up saves off the waiver wire and youngroman to stream top arms at the end of the season. Hell, I drafted one closer and ended up third in saves. Let’s do better.
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