Self Editor

Forum: foot
Page 4616
Subject: RIFC 2006: Draft Rationales #1

Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Wed, Aug 16, 2006, 21:12

This thread will be for managers in the 2006 RotoGuru Invitational Football Challenge to provide the rationale for each pick.

Here are the ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.)

2. Try to keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information. In particular, please avoid mentioning the names of any players who are still undrafted at that time of the post.

If possible, please post your (2 round lagged) comments at the time you make each pick. For example, you should post your comments for your round 1 pick when you make your round 3 selection. If you are not ready to post at that time, then create a "placeholder" so that the next person is able to go ahead in sequence. When your post is ready, simply post it in the draft discussion thread and a moderator can copy it over.

If your rationale is due and intervening placeholders have not been inserted, please insert them before posting your rationale.

3. Once the draft is over, each manager is also encouraged to provide a general draft recap, at which time you can discuss your overall strategy, mention any undisclosed factors, comment on what worked out well and what didn't, etc.

The general format should be:
1.01 Priest Holmes - RB, KC
Several sentences of rationale.

As part of your first round rationale, please comment on your selection of draft sequence.

I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 59652217
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 09:33

Placeholder (Hubble)

1.01 Larry Johnson, RB, KAN

I dreamt about having one of the top 3 pick... and was fortunate enought to get #1. I actually had a little trouble deciding between L.J. and S.A.... but i went with the general consensus that LJ should be gold in his first full season as a starter. I kinda have the feeling S.A. will outperform LJ, and post # close to last year. But who am I to question everyone? I'll try to be less than a sheep on the rest of my draft. (turned out i took 2 WR...!!! ??? hum... craziness?)

I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 59652217
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 09:34

Placeholder (GoatLocker)

2ND Pick in the 2006 RIFC Draft

First year I picked 14th. Last year I picked 9th. With the 2nd pick of draft choices I actually wasn't sure at first where I wanted to pick from. Thoughts that ran through my mind were: Going 2nd Going 3rd Somewhere in the middle - 6, 7, 8 Going 14th

The thought about 3rd would still allow me to get one of the Big Three, but move me up a pick on the back side.

After all was said and done, I went ahead and stayed with the second pick.

1.02 Ladainian Tomlinson, RB, SD

I know several will say I took him as the Homer pick over Alexander, but I actually do see him as the second best of the three with a good chance of him being the number 1 RB. A lot of his season will be driven by P Rivers. I really do see a lot of dump passes to both LT and Gates. A few changes in the O Line, but not enough to worry me. Only time will tell, but right now I'm real happy.

I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 59652217
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 09:34

Placeholder (leggestand)

1.03 Shaun Alexander, RB, SEA

Not too much of a rationale of why I picked him because nearly everyone had the same top 3: LJ, Tomlinson, and Alexander. I just took whoever was left. I will admit that my rankings have Alexander as the 3rd best of these three as I do expect some dropoff from last year for a couple reasons including Hutchinson being gone and Alexander recently signing a contract extension. But, even LJ (new coach) and Tomlinson (new QB) have similar type questions that will change their stats from last year. I still expect 1800 yards and 20 TD's from Alexander, which puts him above everyone else except LJ and Tomlinson.

1st round thoughts: Best Value: Not too much to say, as it is Round 1, but Ronnie Brown at 1.10 is a real deal, as is Peyton at 1.13. Remember Peyton went pick 7 last season after his 2004 season, and many "experts" predict a similar 2006 as Edge is gone.

Biggest Surprise: Willie Parker going in Round 1. I actually thought I had an outside chance at getting him at 2.12. It is great that he has little competition and will start all season, but he hasn't shown that he is a TD scoring back yet.

***DISCLAIMER: My above and future Round analyses are strictly my opinion and should not be taken too seriously. I spend a lot of time preparing for the draft, so, when something happens that I didn't expect, I like to post my thoughts.***

I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 59652217
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 09:35

1.04 Tiki Barber - RB, NYG
Why I picked the 4 Slot: In previous years I've drafted either in the 12 or the 14 slot of 14 round drafts, and had always envied those who had the opportunity to get a real STUD RB. I saw this year, as the year where that would change. 1.04 was originally targeted so that I could call out Portis, but with his recent shoulder concerns, I lost interest of risking such a high pick.
One of the more consistent backs that I've seen (In my two years of following "Pro-Football"). Without the fumbling problems of years past, and without showing major signs of an immenent drop-off I feel confident in Tiki bringing me in consistent enough performances to compete with the LJ, SA, LT's of the league.

Athletics Guy
ID: 167191017
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 09:37

1.05 Steven Jackson, RB, StL

I chose the 5th spot based on the the assumption that the first 3 picks would be Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, and Ladainian Tomlinson (not necessarily in that order). That would leave me with either Tiki Barber or Clinton Portis, either one would have been fine for me at #5. Unfortunately, Portis got hurt (and Barber was taken at #4) so I had to go with someone else. He still might be ready to play on opening day, but I wasn't willing to take that risk.

I decided to take Steven Jackson simply because I thought he was the best RB available. Based on what I've read, he's going to play a larger role in the offense this year. Hopefully, those extra touches will result in an 1,800+ yard season with enough TDs to be worthy of the #5 pick.

The Beezer
Leader
ID: 191202817
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 09:48

0.06 - 6th draft slot

Having drafted 10th and 12th the past two seasons, I wanted to get something closer to the front of the draft this season as I'd like to have a bit more space between my picks - it seems like the guys I see as values drop a bit but are then snatched up in the middle of the round. A lot of folks seemed afraid of the 6 and 7 holes this year as they feel there are several guys at this spot that are equally good, and they would rather have the pick "forced" to some extent plus be able to grab a better guy in round 2. I felt a couple of guys stood out here and I wanted to make sure I got my choice of players, so I was glad to have the chance to take the 6 position.

Another bonus is that I felt I could grab a top 5 RB on my board in round 1 and a top 5 WR on the way back (assuming Manning or a top 10 RB didn't fall to 2.09). I liked the idea of starting out with top 5 guys at the two big positions and having flexibility in round 3 to go anywhere value appeared.

----------------

1.06 Rudi Johnson - RB, CIN

RB all the way here - too easy to get behind the 8 ball in this league going non-RB in the first round.

Lots of guys to think about here. Before Portis' injury L. Johnson, Tomlinson, Alexander, Portis, and Barber looked like the top 5 for sure, leaving a lot of guys that have their backers at 1.06. Steven Jackson, Ronnie Brown, LaMont Jordan, Rudi, Cadillac Williams, and Edgerrin James all had arguments for this slot. After Portis' injury, subtract SJax and add Portis to the previous list. Rather than take the 12 slot and just take whoever is left, leaving my fate to a bunch of really smart guys after me, I decided to take the opposite tack and figure out the best option.

Arguments against each guy:
Edge - Everything's changed and he's got a lot of miles on him for his age. Plus I'm still haunted by drafting an Arizona RB in round 4 last year so I'm still scarred by that OL.
Cadillac - Injuries wore him down a bit too much last year for my liking, and I don't like his projected numbers as much as others on the list. Also the line worries me (it's at least stable and has better depth, but it could be a lot better)
LaMont - New HC, OL looks awful, and the new QB may take away some TDs. I don't like his situation at all.
Brown - I went back and forth between Ronnie and Rudi for the longest time. In the end, the clincher is that Ronnie hasn't yet been the man the full year, and their projections were pretty even for me, but Miami's RB schedule I have rated as very easy, while Cincy's is very hard. As hard as defensive strength of schedule is to predict, it's likely that either Miami's schedule will be harder or Cincinnati's will be easier, which would likely bump Rudi up above Ronnie. Also, I'm not sold on the stability of the QB in Miami, and the line has some preseason injuries that are a concern.
Portis - Not sure how his injury will affect him - I'll let someone else take that risk. He'll probably be fine but I can see him missing a game or two, and who wants their first rounder dinged up before the season even starts?

Rudi ends up being the guy because he's done this before - he's rated in the top 8 the past two years running. He's got the highest floor of anyone available at this point in my opinion, although his limited pass-catching skills limit his ceiling as well. His OL may be the best in football, and there are a lot of weapons on the offense and a solid defense that will give him a lot of second half carries. The schedule looks rough, but his performance last year was against a brutal schedule as well. The other concern is the health of the QB and what impact that may have, but I feel comfortable enough with progress there that it didn't serious impact how i saw Rudi. Had him at #4 on my board overall behind the big 3.

culdeus
ID: 313182621
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 11:22

Pick 7

Had Pick 7 and had the picks ranked something like 1237894510-14. When we did this it was so far before the start of any of my drafts the top tier WRs hadn’t really taken their nosedive. I was reasonably expecting 3-4 WRs to go off the board meaning RB7 and RB17 or so would be mine since someone always takes Manning.

Had I to do it all over again the pick would have been 11 or so. That was the sweetspot in this draft especially with how the draft actually shook out.

Oh well, maybe next time the draft pick won’t have to be set so far in advance.

1.07 Clinton Portis RB Denver

I know he’s hurt, but you have to gamble here. I really thought Sjax would fall here. And again this is a product of the early draft slot picking problem. The Portis injury significantly weakened my spot here, but since RIFC uses the antiquated waiver system having a weak week 1 may not be the worst thing in the world. Of course if the injury lingers I’m as good as done.

So I’ll try to re-up my contract with the Devil and give it another go.

Valkyrie
ID: 313182621
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 11:24

1.08 LaMont Jordan, RB, Oak

I had hoped either Jackson or Jordan would fall to me here so this was a no brainer. Might have been a problem if the injured Portis was still available but I think Jordan still would have been the choice

TB
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 11:48

Why I chose to draft 9th
This was the highest slot remaining when it was my turn to pick. We all know who is going with the first three picks and if RB projections come close to being realistic, those three teams start off with a big advantage. I am assuming that Barber and Portis will also be gone. That means that one of these four fall to me: S. Jackson, Edge, R. Johnson, or Jordan. I would be happy with any of those guys as my 1st pick.

1.09 Edgerrin James, RB, ARI
Maybe he doesn't get 1800 yards and 14 TDs this year, but he has that potential and he is still one of the best running backs in the league. With the ninth pick, I couldn't let him slip past me. Arizona hasn't been a kind offense for running backs in the past, but they look to finally have all the pieces of the puzzle put together on offense. I really believe Edge is going to get his yards and TD's this year.

youngroman
ID: 43441182
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 12:03

0.10 draft slot #10
I am not a fan of picking at the end of the draft. I also had 2 tiers (1-3 and 4-10), so getting #10 would give me any player that is left from my 2nd tier.

1.10 Ronnie Brown, RB, MIA
When I read the news about Clinton Portis I feared that he may not be picked until this pick, leaving me with a tough decision. Thanks culdeus for solving this problem for me. this leaves me with the last player of my 2nd tier of RBs: Ronnie Brown. Ricky Williams is not with the team this year, leaving Brown as the lone back for every situation. I can only imagine what an additional 100 carries can do for his fantasy production.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 12:09

1.11 Cadillac Williams, RB, TB

When selecting my draft order, 1-8 were taken. Based on my early draft analysis, it looked like at least the next 3 RB were pretty comparable, so I decided to defer to 11th, hoping to get a better player in round 2.

Although I have drafted the top QB in the first round in each of the first two RIFC seasons, I decided not to go that route this year, opting for the traditional route of a RB in round 1. Cadillac was the top RB available on most rankings, so I went with the consensus here.

Doug
ID: 361412812
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 13:30

0.12 - Draft Slot #12
My options were 12-14... figured take the earliest pick, there's always the odds someone will drop through. Actually, I also had a "second tier" of RBs that ended at 12 and I wanted to ensure I got one. The next tier was pretty flat to me, so my round 2 placement wasn't much of a consideration (relatively indifferent between picks 2.01 and 2.05). It's always fun when your near one end or the other to try and guess who's going to come off the board around the turns.

-----

1.12 - Willis McGahee, RB, BUF
I considered Peyton, but felt there were too many other decent options at QB later in the draft compared to the positional scarcity of RBs, and again I had a dropoff after my top-12 RBs (and the other 11 had been drafted).

Reports are that the O-Line in Buffalo is somewhat improved, that McGahee has a better relationship w/ the new coaches, and they plan on using him more in the passing game (and 3rd downs). His main downside last year was a lack of TDs... but I see last year's production as clearly a floor... in 2004 he ran for 13 TDs. I also like the fact that he is yet to miss a professional game. Obviously nobody is injury-proof, but so far he doesn't seem to miss any time due to annoying liitle tweaks and such.

I also look forward to being able to cheer whenever he busts out with a big play... "What'choo talkin' 'bout, Willis?!?!"

Motley Crue
Dude
ID: 439372011
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 14:05

1.13 Peyton Manning, QB, IND
Well, who’s the lucky guy who got spot 14 in the draft^2? That’d be me. What a privilege it is not to have to write up a rationale for how I went about choosing my draft position.

Peyton was not the #1 Fantasy QB last year, but that’s only because he had 14 combined pass attempts in the last 2 games of 2006, as he was rested and protected for the Playoffs. There’s no better player at the QB position, and no one with a better history of remaining uninjured than Peyton. Everyone in front of me took a RB, so the pickings got slim quickly. I decided the certainty of having the best QB outweighed the risks involved with taking guys like Westbrook or Domanick Davis, whom I had listed next up on the RB rankings. I also thought, with one of the bookend picks, that s-R might take Manning, so I elected to take him with 1.13 rather than pick a RB that I was not really targeting, and then wait until 2.02 and hope Manning would hang around. No reason to take a chance like that with the best QB in fantasy football.

For s_R
Dude
ID: 439372011
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 14:58

1.14 Willie Parker, RB, Pit

He was my target. A surprise last year Parker becomes Pittsburgh's featured guy. Fast Willie's TD total will improve with the Bus retiring.

2.01 Brian Westbrook, RB, Phi

2 RB or not 2 RB, that was the question. Westbrook is one of the most versatile backs in the entire league, an ideal RB2. Others I considered: Holt, Chad Johnson.

Motley Crue
Dude
ID: 439372011
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 14:58

2.02 Warrick Dunn, RB, ATL

Taking Peyton in round 1 meant I needed to get in on the RB dance in round 2. I was eyeballing Westbrook and s-R must have felt that because he swiped him right in front of me. Nice pick there. I like Westbrook a lot this season. I like Dunn about as much.

I have had him virtually every year in some league or another, always as a #2 or #3 RB. Last year he showed he could be a #1 fantasy RB, especially in a league with 14 teams. 1800+ total yards! Only 6 scores, but I think that was unusually low, and I expect around 8-10 this season. If he can keep getting those bursts of yardage and score a TD every other game, I will be happy. The way I see it, I have the best QB, so I don’t need huge points from the RB position. Consistent 10-15 points per week from Dunn should be enough to get by with, assuming I don’t tank at other positions.

I realize taking Dunn might have been a reach here, but he wouldn’t have been there at 3.13, and I want someone with low injury risk at this point. Dom Davis and DeShaun Foster also garnered a look from me, but I couldn’t stomach the injury risks associated with those guys. I admit I was hoping Foster would make it back to me in round 3, and I was disappointed to see he didn’t. I think he’s in for a big year if he can keep from getting hurt.

Doug
ID: 361412812
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 15:08

2.03 - Kevin Jones, RB, DET
Steve Smith was the other option here. I probably would have taken him if it wasn't for his recent hamstring injury. I know they say it's minor, but those things tend to linger, especially for speedy WRs.

Actually, KJ is in a similar situation as McGahee this year. Both have great talent, but last year their offense sucked and there were coaching and/or locker room problems. I'm obviously playing the upside that things have changed for the better with the arrival of Rod Marinelli, Mike Martz, and Norm Chow. Wait, scratch that last one.

The Lions supposedly have a relatively easy SOS vs. the rush this year, although defenses change from year to year, I figure that's at least worth a little something. The main thing is that he's not in a position battle or RBBC... I expect by the time it gets back to me in round 3, there will be very few RBs left who you can say that about. And I think there will still be some good WRs available.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 16:39

2.04 Reuben Droughns, RB, Cle

My short list for this pick was Reuben Droughns and Kevin Jones, who was just taken. Reggie Bush was an interesting consideration, but I thought it was too early. Two picks later, I found out I was wrong about that.

I thought about Gates here as well, but I think it’s still too early for him also, even though I’d be surprised if he makes it all the way to 3.11. A stud WR is a possibility, but I think I’d rather go with a “solid citizen” RB who should be secure in his role.

I thought about trading down to late in the 2nd round, hoping to land Bush then, along with a decent upgrade early in the 3rd round vs my 3.11 options. But in the end, I decided to take the bird in the hand, nab my second RB, and keep my flexibility for the next few rounds. And, of course, the delay for Bush would have failed. I don’t consider Droughns a reach here in any event.

First time in three years of RIFC that I’ve started RB-RB.

youngroman
ID: 43441182
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 16:48

2.05 Steve Smith, WR, CAR
a RB would have been a reach (Julius Jones was closest). I should get a good QB later, so I took the best WR in our scoring format. He may not produce like last year but I still see him as #1 at his position, without counting the return-yardage. That's his bonus and a key factor why I took him.
I only hope that there will be at least 1 servicable RB left in 1 of the next 2 rounds.

general draft note: I haven't thought that so many average RBs are being drafted that early (late 2nd, early 3rd) and that some are going RB-RB-RB. personally I don't want to draft only a backup (fantasy wise) in round 3.

TB
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 16:48

2.06 Reggie Bush, RB, NOR
I know this isn't a keeper league and that there are still a few more reliable starting running backs available. There are also lots of top tier WR, so why did I pick Bush? I think he is going to get his touches in that offense and the opportunity to score points on special teams. When he isn't lining up in the backfield he might be lining up in the slot. I do think he gets 15-20 rushes/receptions a game along with returning kicks. He could score big points in our format.

Valkyrie
ID: 25110210
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 17:08

2.07- Torry Holt, WR, St. Louis

With all the real attractive RB's off the board time for me to break the ice on the WR's. Also considered TO and Fitzgerald but decided to take the
hopefully safer route this early in the draft.
Wanted to trade down with hopes of getting 2 top WR's but without an obvious pick had little trade power- Had Reggie Bush lasted one more pick I think a trade might have been available.

For culdeus
Leader
ID: 191202817
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 18:32

2.08 Chad Johnson WR Cincy

I wanted to trade up to get CJ in guru’s spot. I thought all the reliable RBs were gone and people would start to tear into the top tier WRs. CJ has a potentially bad situation in Palmer’s injury, but he’s the closest thing to a sure thing if Palmer comes out healthy. I tend to see Palmer and Portis equally in that they both might have a slow start.

The Beezer
Leader
ID: 191202817
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 18:36

2.09 Larry Fitzgerald - WR, AZ

All the RBs available have major question marks in my mind, and I wanted my second round pick to be as dependable as I could make it. With all the top WRs likely gone by the time 3.06 comes back around, WR was the fairly easy call here.

Fitzgerald definitely fits the bill here as he caught over 100 balls last year with 10 TDs. Edge signing with the Cardinals should help open up the field on first and second down just a bit and divert more defensive attention away. Fitz's TDs last year came from all three QBs that played, so he's not just dependent on the starter staying injury-free. I looked at TO and Harrison as well, but had concerns about injuries for TO and Wayne possibly stealing TDs from Harrison.

With Johnson and Fitzgerald in place, I feel like the foundation of the team has been set, and I'm set to exploit any value that falls in rounds 3 and 4. RB, WR, even TE and QB could happen depending on who falls between now and then. RB2 will likely be a concern, but I think there are opportunities to grab pairs of RBs that will produce at RB2 levels. Had him at #3 behind Steve Smith and Chad Johnson.

Athletics Guy
ID: 167191017
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 20:02

2.10 Terrell Owens, WR, DAL

I didn't expect Terrell Owens to be available to me at this pick, but it sure was a nice surprise. He's the #2 WR in my opinion. He does come with some risk, but I expect him to be on good behavior this season. It can't happen 2 years in a row right? Right? Right... If Owens manages to keep his sanity over a full season, a 1500+ yard, 15 TD is certainly not out of the question.

Other players I considered with this pick were Julius Jones, Jamal Lewis and Corey Dillon.

I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 59652217
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 21:17

2.11 Julius Jones - RB, DAL
What a weird round, What a weird round! I was thinking I wasn't going to be able to grab a "viable" option for RB2 the way they were going off the board. Then 5 of the last 6 picks that went off the board before me were WRs. I got to breath a large sigh of relief, as a saw JJ here. I wasn't expecting him, but was expecting to take a FWP. I saw Dunn, Droughns, Bush and Westbrook all going off waytoo early for my taste... but so is the nature of the beast.
Consistency and health concerns are certainly the main ?s that caused JJ to slide to here. Considering his main goal for this year IS to compete in ALL games this year, and that Parcels likes to run the ball a ton, I'm happy for this type of Risk/Reward pick.

leggestand
ID: 426542419
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 22:03

2.12 Chester Taylor, RB, MIN

In 2005, who did this apply to: A career backup to a solid veteran with a good career ypc (4.3) gets signed by a sub-par team with no other options at RB and should get 20-25 touches per game? If you guessed LaMont Jordan, then you have my rationale. I took LaMont Jordan last year with the 2.04 pick using the exact same logic I used to get Chester Taylor. Coach Brad Childress has already said that he expects Taylor to get 20-30 touches per game (30 seems a bit steep), and given his backups, Taylor should not only get most of the carries between the 20's, he should also get the bulk of the goalline carries for Minnesota. He is certainly a pick with some risk, but I think it is a solid risk to take. I also thought over some WR's, and remaining in my top tier of WR's were Moss, Boldin, and Harrison. I thought one of these guys would make back to me in Round 3, so, I decided to go with Taylor.

2nd Round thoughts:
Best Value: Two Cowboys: Owens and Julius Jones. If Owens is not the #1 WR already, he should certainly end up top 3 at worst. To get him as the 5th WR off the board is amazing. As for Julius, I expected him to go early 2nd round and was searching for some late breaking news that was causing him to fall so far.

Biggest Surprise: Droughns at 2.04. He is another guy that I thought could easily fall to me. Don't get me wrong, he is the all down back in Cleveland and has no competition at RB, but no one likes to play the Steelers and Ravens defense twice a season.

GoatLocker
Sustainer
ID: 060151121
Thu, Aug 17, 2006, 23:07

2.13 Corey Dillon, RB, NE
Almost thought Julius Jones or Chester Taylor was going to make it to me only to see them both go right in front of me.
Normally don't like taking this big of a chance this early in the draft, but decided .... No Guts, No Glory.

If he can stay on the field, I think he still has the ability to perform.
We'll just have to see how it comes out.

I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 59652217
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 00:29

PlaceHolder (Hubble)

2.14 Marvin Harrisson, WR, IND

I had the feeling before the draft that no worthy RB would be avalaible for this 2.14 pick. So i prepared the draft thinking RB-WR-WR. I was kinda surprise with the WR run from 2.05 to 2.10 and really thought i would need to rethink my little strategy and go with Julius Jones or Chester Taylor... but 3 RB went right before my pick. Letting both Harrisson and Moss avalaible. I beleive in the word STUD and althought he had 2 minor surgeries in offseason, he remains Mannings favorite target and should be 1000 yds+ and 10-12 TD. He missed only 2 games in last 5 year...

I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 59652217
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 00:29

PlaceHolder (Hubble)

3.01 Randy Moss, WR, OAK

Same as with Marvin, Moss is a stud with upside, he will almost certainly give me 1000 yds and 10 TD and if healthy he still have the skill to be top WR... in TD at least. I like my first 3 picks so far, and i really like the option of waiting to get my 3rd WR since there are many nice options for later rounds. Now i need to get that RB situation settled.

I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 59652217
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 00:30

PlaceHolder (GoatLocker)

3.02 Dominick Davis, RB, Hou
Not sure whether I am losing it or not, but two risky choices in a row.
Almost ditto what I had to say earlier about Dillon.
As long as I can keep one of the two of them on the field, I should be in realitively good shape.
Same comment as earlier about having one really strong RB and being willing to take a chance with m 2nd and 3rd choices.

Again, only time will tell.
I do think the O-line might have changed for the good in Houston.

I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 59652217
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 00:30

PlaceHolder (leggestand)

3.03 Anquan Boldin, WR, ARZ

After my pick at 2.12, I had three WR's left in my top tier: R. Moss, Harrison, and Boldin. I assumed that Hubble and Goatlocker would take 1 RB each and 1 WR each at the turn, leaving me with one of my 3 left in the top tier. When Hubble went WR-WR, I thought for sure that Goatlocker would take Boldin, but he went with D.Davis instead, leaving me with Boldin and a sigh of relief. I honestly don't know what I would have done if Goatlocker took Boldin, maybe Gates? One thing's for sure, I would of overpayed at 3.03 if Boldin was gone.

So, why Boldin, I think I just need to show his stats from the final 7 games of last years season (coming off an injury):

Week: Receptions/Yards/TD's

11: 8/105/1 12: 10/115 13: 11/156/1 14: 9/114 15: 8/134/1 16: 9/81/1 17: 8/81

Pretty consistant numbersd week in and week out. I certainly don't expect him to do it for a full season, but the ability to be able to put up those kind of numbers is nice. As a foot note, Boldin also has 33 more receptions in his first three seasons than anyone in NFL history. I'll take it.

Round 3 thoughts: Best Value: No one really jumps out at me, as I think every pick landed pretty close to where it should. If healthy, DeSahun Foster can put up some solid RB numbers, so, getting him at 3.07 might be the best value of the round.

Biggest Surprise: No player was a surprise, so, I am going to go with Jamal Lewis being selected by IAC, who has Julius Jones and Tiki Barber. I think Jones and Barber are both solid backs that should start each week for a fantasy team, so, I am not sure how often Jamal will get playing time on IAC's squad.

I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 59652217
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 00:31

3.04 Jamal Lewis - RB, BAL
Although I'm happy that I got the two RBs I did in the first two rounds, I felt it was necessary to backup the RB slot right away. Jamal was the only "target" pick left on my board. I had for some odd reason expected Dunn, and Chester Taylor to potentially be available here. Since I had Jamal lumped together with them, I think he's a good value now, 1 round later.

Athletics Guy
ID: 167191017
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 00:34

3.05 Chris Chambers, WR, MIA

By taking Owens in the previous round, I planned on taking my second RB here. Too bad Lewis (1 pick away!) and Dillon were off the board by the time it got back to me. The other RBs available to me didn't seem very appealing. Rather than take my 2nd RB, I went with the best player available-approach and wound up with Chris Chambers.

With the addition of Dumpty Bellpepper (name has been changed to protect the undrafted player's identity) as Miami's new QB, Chambers should have even better numbers than last season.

The Beezer
Leader
ID: 191202817
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 06:29

3.06 Reggie Wayne - WR, IND

I figured with all the RBs taken by the 7-14 slots that the pool wouldn't change too much there, so I took a pass on Addai or Foster. I didn't want a QB at this point as I think I can get better value later. Basically it came down between a top WR or Gates. I was planning on going Gates here until Wayne lasted all the way back to me. Tough call.

I decided to take a look at what positions the guys behind me would need. I could easily see 7-8 WRs going off the board (actual count: 9), which would take nearly all the proven guys out of play. Also, I've had good success in the past taking TEs late, while 3rd round TEs have usually done OK at best for me. It's also possible that the QB change in SD will affect Gates, so there's a risk there that Wayne doesn't have.

Plus, I really like Wayne. He's in an offense that if anything will be throwing more with Edge gone and the defense possibly regressing (just a hunch). Manning is still great and Harrison isn't getting any younger (althought I still think Marvin will perform the better of the two). 1K yards and 8 TDs seems like a lock barring unforseen circumstances, and it could be better if he starts seeing more balls in the red zone.

culdeus
ID: 25110210
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 10:36

3.07 DeShaun Foster RB Carolina

Obviously I believe that you've gotta have at least 2 RBs in the first three. I didn't expect people to go with 3 so I thought I had a reasonable chance given the lack of WRs off the board to get a low 20s RB. That didn't really happen but Foster has at least a little upside if his floor is indeed pretty low. I think waiting around for Frank Gore was too much of a risk to take though looking back on how things shook out later on, Gore was probably worth this pick.

Valkyrie
ID: 25110210
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 10:40

3.08- Santana Moss, WR, Wash
I was pleasantly surprised when a second and in my opinion the last of the top WR's fell to me.

TB
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 10:46

3.09 Hines Ward, WR, PIT
With my two starting running backs secured, it was time to get a top receiver. I was hoping to get Chris Chambers. Reggie Wayne, or Santana Moss in this spot but all three were quickly taken. Hines Ward isn't a top 10 receiver anymore, but he is in that next group of guys. His yardage has dropped slightly each of the past three seasons. I do think with Bettis retiring and his QB finally becoming proficient in this offense, that we might see Pittsburgh turn to the pass a little bit more than last year. I spent about twenty minutes debating the pros and cons of drafting Gates in this spot. In the end, I decided I would rather gamble at the TE position than at the WR spot.

youngroman
ID: 43441182
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 10:51

3.10 Antonio Gates, TE, SD
a RB would be a reach with that many gone already. In the next 8 picks only 1 manager needs another starting slot filled at RB, maybe a 2nd one will be drafted, that leaves me with enough options left for my 4.05 pick.
I haven't seen a WR standing out and the production that Gates can deliver is in the same range of the available WR, so why not take him? I assume that he can't repeat last years stats with a new QB (I could be wrong here too, because a TE can be the favorite target for a struggling QB), but he is clearly the best TE in the league right now and should do wonders for my team.

For Guru
Dude
ID: 439372011
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 11:09

3.11 Donald Driver, WR, GNB
With 3 picks to go before this one, I was surprised to see Gates still out there. If he had made it this far, I’d have grabbed him. He was a key ingredient to my squad last season. But, as usual, taken right before me…

So instead, I’ll grab my first WR here. Roy Williams is a tempting alternative, but his injury history scares me away. Driver seems like a comparable and safer pick. His situation seems the same as last year, so I’m hoping for similar results.

It’s been said that you can’t win your league based on the first few rounds of drafting, but you can lose it. Although none of my top three picks conjure up much excitement, as long as they stay healthy, I think I have a solid core (corps?) to build upon. One of these years, though, it would be fun to pick near the top of the order.

For Doug
Dude
ID: 439372011
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 11:12

3.12 Roy Williams, WR, DET
I'm suddenly a Lions fan I guess, LOL. I definitely wanted to get a solid WR1 as I felt things started dropping off quickly at this position... I can fill in with a couple WR sleepers or waiver wire pickups, but it certainly helps to at least have one solid player to start with!

I really like Williams upside this year... a very physical WR entering the fabled "3rd year" of WR lore... an improved QB situation (IMHO)... and as I mentioned before, I'm very fond of the coaching changes in Detriot this year too. I'm not actually a Lions fan though. They don't commit enough penalties for my taste. Yes, only one team is truly capable of sustaining my lust for yellow hankies. Go Raiders!

Motley Crue
Dude
ID: 439372011
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 11:13

3.13 Plaxico Burress, WR, NYG

Had a hard time deciding between Darrell Jackson and Burress here, so I elected to not take the UF guy, as to avoid my personal bias. I had D-Jax ranked a shade higher, but when I did a final review of their respective stat lines from last year, I couldn’t resist the taller half of the dysfunctional dynamic duo (the other being Shockey, of course).

I like Plaxico because he’s a proven commodity and he plays for a team with a solid, well-balanced offense and a very good QB. I think it’s imperative to have WR depth in a league where you must start three each week, and he’s close to a Top 10 player at the position. I anticipate the connection he has with his QB will improve this season, and if so, that ought to put Burress in the 1200 yard/10 TD zone. Anything above that is unexpected but welcome.

I also notice I’m developing a theme of taking solid, low injury risk, veteran players. This gives me a comfortable feeling when I look at my roster, and I like that. It makes me want to drink a mug of warm cocoa and have a nap by the fire.

For s_R
Dude
ID: 439372011
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 12:18

3.14 Andre Johnson, WR, Hou

I expect here a big bounce-back and career numbers, especially with Moulds around. He has the size and the ball skills to make the big time catch.

4.01 Derrick Mason, WR, Bal

RB-RB, WR-WR. Mason has become one of the more consistent receivers in the game. He hit 1000 yds for the fifth straight year. McNair back in the mix increases Mason's ceiling.
Others I considered: Branch, Houshmandzadeh.

Motley Crue
Dude
ID: 439372011
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 12:24

4.02 Darrell Jackson, WR, SEA

So the Gator made it back to me. Sweet. I worry about his injury history, but otherwise D-Jax is a very good WR and a solid fantasy player. If he stays healthy all year, there's no doubt in my mind he'll hit 1200 yards and probably score 8+ times. I can live with those numbers, especially in tandem with Plaxico occupying one of my other WR slots.

I realize at this point I am lacking depth at RB and I will have to address that later in the draft, as I did in 2005. It's not easy, but it can be done.

This was the end of a serious WR run that saw 11 WR drafted in 14 picks. That may bode poorly for me, seeing that I got two of the last 3 taken. But I feel confident in what I have, especially in light of my QB at this point.

for Doug
ID: 43441182
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 14:31

4.03 Jonathan Vilma, LB, NYJ
I knew this was "early", but with the 3 flex IDP slots this year I figured I'd get started since I saw a lot of value here. I play in several dynasty leagues with IDPs (7-9 of them) and LBs are the "RBs" of IDP. I considered Bulluck but there are several top-10 LBs with week 7 byes, so I figured Vilma was less likely to conflict with a potential later pick. I figured I might nab Bulluck if he made it back to me in round 5.

In an ideal world, I'd have traded down with this pick... but I just didn't have the energy to even bother trying... suffice it to say that the timing of our draft worked out poorly for me this year. C'est la vie!

for Guru
ID: 43441182
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 14:31

4.04 Jeremy Shockey, TE, NYG

I’d obviously have preferred Gates, but Shockey could push him this season with a maturing QB situation in NY. I considered a 2nd WR at this spot, but couldn’t convince myself that the top guys were worth it. While I do think there is reasonable depth at TE this year, I decided to get in early and see if that might spur others to follow suit.

I thought about a 3rd RB at this point as well, but the two top guys in my list have byes that align with my existing RBs, so I couldn’t find the right fit. And they all have uncertainties, too.

youngroman
ID: 43441182
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 14:32

4.05 Deuce McAllister, RB, NO
I thought very long about this pick, but there were not many interesting options out there. The possibilities were:
(1) QB - too many still out there with equal value, I have a favorite but he would have been a reach here
(2) RB - McAllister, Fred Taylor, Addai, Chris Brown, others - all have their risks, be it either injury or playing time or both.
(3) WR - no one stood out here, WR is a deep position this year so I should get good value in later rounds
(4) other positions - TE is covered, the rest would have been too early, I have a favorite for my 1st IDP, but round 4 is way too early

the decision was to take Deuce. He has huge upside potential even with Reggie Bush beside him. I compare this situation with Priest Holmes/Larry Johnson of last year. I had the 2 of them and they played both great until Priest went down. I can only hope that Deuce does not go down and that he gets his occasional off-time when Bush is on the field to stay fresh all season.

TB
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 14:38

4.06 Tom Brady, QB, NE
For a guy who hates the Patriots, I sure do draft Tom Brady a lot. Last year I was the the 2nd-to-last team to grab a starting QB and it was Brady in the 7th round. That worked out pretty good for me. No way does he last past the 4th round this year. I didn't want to miss the run on the top starting QBs. I am projecting it to start with this pick and wouldn't be surprised to see 7 or 8 QB's come off the board before this comes back around to me in the 5th round. The Patriots defense looks average so far in preseason and I am guessing that good teams will score plenty on them. I am hoping that translates to Brady having to pass a lot and producing a repeat performance from last year. There are a lot of different directions I could have taken in this spot, but I didn't see the value at any one position that shouted to be taken. Brady is a solid QB and a safe all-around pick. (I was wrong about the QB run, which is fine because it keeps my streak alive of not knowing when to draft a QB in this format)

Valkyrie
ID: 313182621
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 15:09

4.07 Joseph Addai, RB, Ind
What can I say- I thought I needed an RB and also consdiered Tom Jones and Brown. In retrospect far to early to risk the season on someone like Addai who could be the best or the worst pick of the year- Based on the subsequent QB run I should have picked a QB here and might have taken Brady if he hadn't just been taken by TB.

for culdeus
Leader
ID: 191202817
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 15:10

4.08 Javon Walker WR Denver

Another big risk. I’m a gambler though and always have been. This guy might not even get the WR1 spot ahead of Rod Smith, but he’s got the most upside of anyone left at that point. There was a big run of WRs in late 3 early 4 that was predictable. Not totally sure that a couple days later I like this pick. It was a really barren spot. No RBs to speak of, the WRs were shaky, and no way I take a QB that early so here I am.

The Beezer
Leader
ID: 191202817
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 15:12

4.09 Frank Gore - RB, SF

RBs are starting to get really thin on the ground, which was expected going WR/WR in the 2nd and 3rd round. I was hoping Addai would fall here but Valkyrie snuffed that out with a good pick at 4.07. With WR1/2 set, Gates off the board, and QBs still plentiful enough to wait a bit more, I thought finding a RB2 was the move here as I can see 2-3 more RBs going off the board which would make things difficult. As far as likely starters go that I like, I only saw Gore, pick-a-Denver-RB, and who'll-make-it-back-from-injury-first in Chicago.

Of these, Gore is my favorite and seems to have the best match of opportunity and talent. He looked really good when he had chances last season and looked good against CHI in preseason game 1 (worth zilch but I'm looking for positives here). Barlow's squandered his chances so I don't see Norv giving him much of a chance other than as a change of pace.

With Rudi firmly entrenched, I'm OK with taking some risk on here. My RB pick here last year was a complete bust and I still made it to the big league, so if I whiff it's not the end of the world.

Athletics Guy
ID: 167191017
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 16:21

4.10 Fred Taylor, RB, JAX

I guess I could do a lot worse than having Fred Taylor as one of my starting RBs. Either way, I'm not too crazy about this pick, but it was one I felt I had to make. If I didn't take him here, I'd probably have to use a bunch of future picks on RB-by-committee players and hope that I get lucky with one. As long as he can stay healthy (yeah right...), he should be productive enough to help carry my team into the postseason.

I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 3579513
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 16:42

4.11 Tony Gonzalez - TE, KAN
Gonzalez' production had a huge drop last year (7th TE) while he was helping out on the blocking more than in previous years. Here's hoping that although it appears that Roaf won't be coming back, that the Chiefs find a way of getting the ball to their best receiver. (Especially into the Endzone)

leggestand
ID: 426542419
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 18:37

4.12 Joe Horn, WR, NO

I wanted Tony G. here, but IAC took him right in front of me. Only one guy stood out from my cheat sheets for me to take once Gonzo was gone, and it was Joe Horn. I tried and tried to find a reason not to pick him, but I couldn't find anything too big. Last season was miserable (650 yards and 1 TD in 13 games), but how much of this can be attributed to (1) Katrina, (2) crappy QB, and (3) injury (hammy in week 3)? I am hoping that these were the significant issues that caused the dropoff and not that he is too old (34) to be the top 15 WR that he had been. Omitting 2005's stats, Horn averaged over 1200 yards and 9 TD's per season from 2000-2004. I am hoping for more along the lines of 1050 yards and 7 TD's. With a new QB at the helm, Sean Payton in the headset, and a new WR's coach from the U, I think Horn makes for a solid #2 WR.

Round 4 thoughts:
Best Value: 2 WR's: Javon Walker and D-Jax. These two guys could very easily end up as top 10 WR's by the end of 2006, and they were picked as the 18th and 19th WR's off the board, respectively.

Biggest Surprise: Probably whenever an IDP was first picked, it was going to make my biggest surprise for that round. Vilma is a stud and the #1 LB, but 4th round seemed early to me as no one else chose an IDP for 22 picks.

GoatLocker
Sustainer
ID: 060151121
Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 22:19

4.13 TJ Houshmanzadeh, WR, Cin
Highest WR left on my board and was time to go that direction.

Actually worked out pretty good and am happy to have him.
A lot of his season will be driven by what happens with Palmer.
Another case of wait and see.
Will be interesting to see which pair of WRs have the best year.

Hubble
ID: 59652217
Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 09:30

4.14 & 5.01 Thomas Jones & Cedric Benson, RB, CHI
Well, after a RB-WR-WR... i needed to get another starting RB. I couldnt decide between Benson and Jones, the RB situation in CHI being obscure at best, and didn't want to end up with the wrong guy, then i thought, what if i take both? 5th round might be a little early for a handcuff, but i had to wait 26 picks before i selected again and for sure they would have been gone.

Some say Jones will be traded to let Benson be the only RB in CHI. I'd be happy with that, what ever the case, i know that commitee are a nightmare fantasy-wise, but i think this is the least of the worst option remaining at RB. As long as i start the starting RB, i always have a remote chance of getting good points.

Goatlocker
ID: 59652217
Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 09:30

5.02 Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Sea

Was kind of torn with this pick, but as I tried to look at value and where we were at in the draft, the only name that really stood out was Hasselbeck. There were a few other QBs that I thought about, but my gut instinct became one of take the least risky pick and there is little doubt in my mind that Hasselbeck filled that role. Expect him to have another very solid year and perform to the same level he did last year.

Guru
ID: 59652217
Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 09:30

5.03 Eli Manning, QB, NYG
OK, I’ll admit this was partly a trade of convenience. It was late Thursday, and I had an 11 hour drive ahead of me the following day. I was trying to put together a coherent queue – which is so very tedious when using a dialup to do all of the processing, research, etc. So when leggestand offered the chance to swap 5th and 6th round picks, allowing me to pick Thursday night and avoid the queue, it had a LOT of appeal.

Strategically, I had been targeting a QB in the next pick, and I thought we might start to see a run. My short list was Hasselback and Manning, and when Hasselback went immediately before this, I figured it was appropriate to jump.

Manning may not be the #4 QB overall, but the other guys in the mix all had “issues” that made them tough to evaluate. With Manning, I’m betting on the pedigree of the family name, assuming that he continues to improve upon his performance last year, and there’s also some good karma from last year’s RIFC team.

I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 59652217
Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 09:32

5.04 Deion Branch - WR, NE
Broke down and took my first WR. In a perfect world… this should be my 3rd WR. Contract disputes can sometimes be messy. The noise of potentially holding out into the season certainly has brough his value down some. The Patriots currently have ***Undrafted Player*** as their starting WR, so I'm guessing that they'll cave in shortly on this one. If not, maybe he may be moved to a team in need of WRs? Philly? Pretty Please? There were quite a few holdouts last year as I recall too, and only Gates really caused a lost regular season game.

Athletics Guy
ID: 167191017
Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 11:40

5.05 Todd Heap, TE, BAL

In most of my fantasy football drafts, I usually put off taking a TE until I've filled every other starting position. The reason is I don't like to overpay for the lowest scoring position on my team. I wanted to try something different here (since none of the QBs or WRs really stood out to me) and take Todd Heap, who I consider to be a top 5 TE. He's been pretty consistent in his career, averaging around 45 yards per game.

I also considered taking Terrence McGee here, but I thought he would still be there for my 6th pick (Wrong!). And seeing as how Alge Crumpler slipped to the 7th round, I'm really starting to regret making this pick. Ugh!

The Beezer
Leader
ID: 191202817
Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 13:17

5.06 Tatum Bell - RB, DEN

This pick wasn't so much about liking Bell as it was feeling I could wait on other positions, but not on RBs. The Chicago RBs, Hasselbeck, and Heap had all come straight off the top of my pick list before this selection, and I suspected that the next player or near equivalent on my lists at QB, WR, TE, and LB would still be there on the way back. This did not appear to be the case at RB, so I took the top guy left on my board.

Even when not the full time starter last year, Tatum Bell still managed 1000 combined yards and 8 TDs. He should prove to be an effective bye week filler as a result even if he's not the starter, since Shanny seems committed to 10-15 touches per game no matter who starts and Tatum is the very definition of a home run back. I don't see either of the other two Denver RBs holding onto the starting job all year, and they seem more likely to be riding the pine if they aren't starting.

I looked at an RB from TEN, GB, and NYJ since none of them have left the board, but all I see is a mess at those spots. Now I can go to sleep on RB for a few rounds and fill some other needs.

culdeus
ID: 313182621
Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 14:13

5.07 Dominic Rhodes, RB, IND

I really like getting Rhodes here. He's got some potential to do very well if Adaii doesn't come along quickly. I don't see Edge type numbers here, but Indy's goalline offense has been pretty RB friendly. Hopefully he's a good bye week fill in and an occasional start over Foster. He'll probably be a week 1 back for sure for me.

Round 5 Comments: Thought McNabb was a wasted pick. No WRs to throw to and as TO correctly stated he's not mobile anymore. Galloway was another questionable reach at that point. I just don't see him doing last year once again with the QB situation there. I think eventually McGee is just going to be a first rounder. People dive all over themselves to get him. The guy is worth 2PPG over a top ten DB. Not totally sure if he warrants that high a pick. But Buffalo is gonna get kicked off to alot this year.

Valkyrie
ID: 313182621
Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 14:22

5.08 Donovan McNabb, QB, Phila

With the big run on QB's I was afraid I'd drop to fourth tier. I won with Peyton last year so I place a lot of importance on the QB. I thought Guru made the trade of the draft moving up to take Eli (at very little cost). Feeling I had to take a QB I chose McNabb despite his injury risks over Bulger or the even greater injury risk/rerward with Palmer. Actually I was grateful to have a choice. I don't particularly like McNabb but the Eagles are a solid playoff team and Andy Reid is a good and pass happy coach.

TB
ID: 43441182
Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 15:31

5.09 Terrence McGee, DB, BUF

I think I do more of a draft diary than a draft rationale. I have watched 5 picks go blazing off the board since I picked 5 hours ago and not a one is a QB. Maybe several teams will grab one on the way back down. I looked at a lot of WR in this spot. Several of the "top" guys out there have age concerns and I have to wonder if they can improve or even maintain from last season. I finally looked at every position to see where my biggest drop off was from my available top rated players and realized McGee was the pick. He scored 164 points in 15 games last year. 20+ points more than the 2nd rated DB. There isn't a receiver left out there projected to score as much. I am sure there is one who will, but my magic 8-ball is fuzzy (stole that line from an old MC rationale). Only one other IDP scored more points than McGee last season and that was Vilma.

youngroman
ID: 43441182
Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 15:33

5.10 Joey Galloway, WR, TB
I wanted McNabb with this pick, but he was taken 2 picks ahead. So I was thinking about a WR here: Rod Smith, Joey Galloway, Laveranues Coles.
I also had Chris Brown, the only healthy starting RB left, in mind, but couldn't take him because
(1) he would have been the 1st backup for me, for the 5th this is too early and
(2) he has the same bye as Deuce.
that leaves me with the WR discussion. I see them all at nearly the same value. they could be great or only average. I played it safe and went with the veteran. Galloway is still the #1 in Tampa, with no close 2nd. thats the difference to Rod Smith. I see Galloway reaching the 1000yds again and hope for 8-10 TDs. the only concern is, to stay fresh for the whole season, because he wasn't that great at the end of last season. but before I think about the end of the season (=playoffs), I need a competitive team for the regular season and Galloway should be a major factor.

leggestand
ID: 426542419
Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 15:45

I traded down in the 5th round to move up in the 6th round. My rationale behind the trade - I saw three things possibly happening in the 5th and 6th rounds: (1) a QB run, (2) a 3rd RB run, and (3) an IDP run. I figured two of these three options would happen, and since I only had one of the next 26 picks (after my 4th round selection), which was towards the front end of the 26 picks, I could easily pick the wrong option of the 3 and end up messing myself up in a very important part of the draft. So, I offered up a straight 5th and 6th round swap. If I couldn't make a swap, I would of taken at 5.03 one of these players: Bulger, T. Bell, or Bulluck, and try to guess one of the right runs. Bulger become the front runner until Guru made the final proposal to swap, so, I figured I would get someone like an Eli Manning at 5.11, and then decide if I wanted to go 3rd RB or 1st IDP in 6.04.

As it happens, Guru wanted Eli Manning, and Bulger fell to me at 5.11, who I would of taken at 5.03 anyhow. The 3rd RB run was starting, and their was one option out there that I thought of (C. Brown), but I hoped he would make the turn back to me at 6.04 (he didn't).

5.11 Marc Bulger, QB, STL

I like Bulger. He has never played a full season in his career, but I am hoping that this is more of a product of Mike Martz not really caring how much a QB should be protected. According to most things I have read, Bulger should be a top 5 QB this year, although I actually have him ranked as #6. The only thing I can say is hopefully he can stay healthy.

5th round thoughts:
Best Value - If Carson Palmer can get healthy, it's him hands down. I was wondering who would take him.

Biggest Surprise - After seeing only 2 QB's go during the 1st 4 rounds, 5 went in Round 5 alone. The QB run finally arrived, and I was surprised it started so late.

For Doug
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 17:13

5.12 Keith Bulluck, LB, TEN
Well, I'm sure I'm raising a few eyebrows at this point. But with the 3 added IDPs, the stud LBs present a greater value to me than other positions do right now, and I'd rather take what I consider a "sure thing" LB than a "maybe" at some other position. By taking my IDP studs now, I can take a few flyers to try and fill in offensive holes later.

I find LB scoring to be more consistent than other positions, probably in part because they are less dependent on things like TDs and sacks for fantasy scoring. I'd rather average 115 points per week with low variance than 120 points per week with high variance.

I tried to take up Leggestand on his offer to swap picks in rounds 5 and 6, but he preferred Guru's position to mine. Drat! I would have taken Heap at 5.03 instead... liked his value there. Was actually considering him back at 4.03, but neither Gonzo nor Shockey had been drafted yet so I was kinda hoping one of the 3 might last to me in round 5.

For Motley Crue
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 17:14

5.13 Mike Bell, RB, DEN
After 4 rounds I have only 1 RB, and he’s not a superstud. I need another one. I think Mike Bell has the biggest upside of all of the available RB’s. He’s an undrafted rookie and could easily disappear from the depth chart and even the NFL, but the fact that he was promoted early to the top of the RB pile is significant. Denver RB’s almost always do well, when given a chance, so I think it’s a safe bet that one of the Bells will be a very valuable fantasy back this season. I hope I got the right one.

For S_R
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 17:14

5.14 Carson Palmer
IMO the second-best QB option in drafts.
I hope he'll be back to 100% for the fantasy playoff!
6.01 Laveranues Coles
Unsettled QB situation in NY makes him risky pick,
but durable wideout with excellent speed.

For Motley Crue
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 17:36

6.02 Chris Brown, RB, TEN
My RB depth is still very shallow, and I like Chris Brown’s chances of being the starter for 16 games. I am not expecting a great season from him, but if he can get to 1000 yards, I think we can call that a success. There are rivals in camp, but I feel that Brown is the best of the bunch, and therefore most likely to win the bulk of the carries.

I think I basically got the last 2 real good prospects available at the RB position with Mike Bell and Chris Brown. They may not both start all year long, but as long as I can plug either of them in on a given week to fill out my starting lineup, I feel I’ll be competitive.

For Doug
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 17:36

6.03 Carolina Panthers, DEF, CAR
I basically knew that between this pick and my next two, I wanted a D, a 3rd LB, and a WR. I heavily considered Mike Peterson, and probably would have taken him if anyone else had taken a LB besides me. I had 3 top Team D and I wanted one of them, didn't care which... I figured that there was the greatest chance of those coming off the board before it got back to me. In retrospect, looks like I could have waited on Team D and taken Peterson here instead. Phbbt.

Leggestand
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 17:37

6.04 Mike Peterson, JAX, LB

As I said earlier, the rationale for trading 5th and 6th round picks were to ensure I got a top QB, a 3rd RB, or top IDP. To put it plainly, I have never waited this long to get a 3rd RB in my fantasy football life. I don't really want to delve into why I stayed away from a RB in the 6th round at this time, but if MC had let Chris Brown slide, he was the only RB I would of taken. As he didn't, I changed directions.

We now start 6 IDP's. Last year, when we had 4, I felt it was pretty easy to get by without getting a stud IDP. This year is different. Considering at least 84 IDP's need to come of the board, the more you can get in the top 10, the better off you are.

My top 3 LB's: (1) Vilma, (2) Bulluck, and (3) Peterson. There is a decent sized dropoff between these guys and the next 20 LB's. As Peterson was the only one left out of these 3, it was an easy choice for me. I never would of taken him if we still only started 4 IDP's, but seeing how even with Peterson, I need 5 more, I need to have at least a couple sure fire LB's on my squad. With Peterson, I have a guy who should easily reach at least 100 tackles, multiple sacks, and multiple INT's.

6th round thoughts:
Best Value: Chris Brown at 6.02. He always gets dinged up, but everyone has to admit that he is solid. He has some good runners behind him, but he should be the obvious Titan starter right now. Eddie Kennison is also always undervalued and drafted at a value position.

Biggest Surprise: None really, except maybe Vick. I just think there were some better consistant QB's out there. If Vick finally puts all his tools together, good pick!

For youngroman
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 17:38

6.05 Zach Thomas, LB, MIA

He is simply the best linebacker in our scoring format. Without the injury concerns he would have been gone a round ago. He is a threat week by week for my team and the 2nd player that a signed again this year (Galloway being the 1st).

there were thoughts about QB and RB here, but Brown was gone and I still see too many equal options at QB available.

TB
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 17:39

6.06 Dante' Hall, WR, KAN

6th round and I have one starting WR in a league that starts three. I knew I was drafting a WR in this spot as soon as I made my last pick. I am already behind the power curve. I don't have a top 10 guy and I just read that Ward has hammy issues. I am certainly surprised to get last years 13th ranked "WR" in the 6th round. 24 other receivers have been drafted. Return yards are key to his point production so I am hoping he stays healthy and gets lot of returns this season.

Valkyrie
ID: 25110210
Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 21:18

6.07 Jake Delhomme QB- carolina
The first team to pick a back up QB. Strictly a value pick. With an injury prone Mcnabb I was pleased to see Delhomme still available in fact I was prepared to take him round 5 if I had to. In my opinion there is a big drop off after Delhomme so I anticipate him having substantial trade value as QB's continue to get squeezed should I decide to go that route.

for culdeus
6.08 Eddie Kennison WR KC

Someone has to catch balls in KC and it might as well be Eddie. The offense will be centered around LJ so much this year that hopefully he gets some balls when people stack 8 in the box. I was really pleased to get him at here. I really considered Matt Jones here and again as it turned out he was there for my next pick.

Round 6 comments: Again someone reaches for a D/ST. I'm just not convinced in this format a D/ST can get the kind of separation a quality IDP can provide you. I've always felt that the lack of severe penalty for poor performing D/ST limits their overall value. For this reason frequently a waiver wire D/ST can perform equally to D/ST1 on a week to week basis. So why burn a 6th rounder? I thought other than that people behaved fairly rationally in this round.

The Beezer
ID: 265172712
Sun, Aug 20, 2006, 08:56

6.09 Michael Vick - QB, ATL

Time to fill a starter position - I see plenty of like depth at all the positions other than TE and QB, where I have one guy at each position far ahead of his peers on my chart - Michael Vick and Chris Cooley. The question is, who's more likely to make it back to 7.06? After thinking about it really hard, I figure that there are more TEs to go off the board before I pick than QBs, for a lot of reasons that I won't go into right now. Therefore, for the second year in a row, I'm going into battle with Vick at QB.

Mike Vick has the perception of being extremely inconsistent from week to week, making him a roller coaster ride. What I found last year taking him in the fifth round did not match up with this, at least until the end of the season. Vick would consistently provide 10-15 points per week, and had the potential to deliver 20+ points on any given Sunday. That on top of a solid foundation was a formula for success last season. With another year under the belts of the ATL WRs, the further help of his TE, and another year for MV in the WCO, I figure he should at least match last year's production of 15 FP/game, if not improve upon it. This level of production would more than justify a sixth round pick, and if it resparks a QB run so I can grab some other guys I want, all the better.

Athletics Guy
ID: 167191017
Sun, Aug 20, 2006, 09:57

6.10 Ahman Green, RB, GB

By drafting Fragile Fred, adding depth at RB was very important to me. Ahman Green's stock is at an all-time low, so I was pleased to get a starter this late in the draft. This is definitely a high risk/reward pick. Green was a very productive player prior to his disasterous 2005 season. I'm hoping he's still got something left in the tank. He gets to face some pretty weak defenses (NO, DET, and StL) within the first 5 weeks, so he might get off to a good start.

I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 59652217
Sun, Aug 20, 2006, 10:44

6.11 Brian Urlacher - LB, CHI
Last year I drafted my first IDP in round 13. I still feel that I was able to have a really competitive team. This year, I figured the lack of depth that'll be available on waivers would cause the "need" to start focusing on IDP no later than by round 7. I think LBs will prove to be ALMOST as important to the draft as RBs. That said however, I didn't feel like grabing one before the 6th round was wise, as I felt most other managers would be ignoring IDP early (due to previous years "habits"). Urlacher is a beast of a LB, and I rank him TOP5 among LBs.

Guru
Sustainer
ID: 060151121
Sun, Aug 20, 2006, 12:52

6.12 Rod Smith, WR, Den
I had thought about taking a LB with this pick, but those who I was most interested were taken. I’ve only got one WR so far, and it can’t hurt to get another one. Rod Smith shows up at the top of the list now, and although he’s age 36, should still put up consistent numbers. I’m not worried about him playing second fiddle to Javon Walker.

So far, I have a QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, and a TE. An uncharacteristically traditional draft for me.

GoatLocker
Sustainer
ID: 060151121
Sun, Aug 20, 2006, 12:57

6.13 Donnie Edwards, LB, SD
Kind of mimicks what IAC just had to say about his 6.11 pick.

With 6 slots for IDP, I was pretty sure that the first choice needed to be in round 6 or 7.

Since I am on the end, my choices are being made in pairs.

The Even numbered pick has been who I think won't be there in 3 picks, or who I really want to ensure I get right now.

Even though there is some question about whether Edwards will spend the entire year with SD or not, I still feel he is one of the Top 5 LBs and knew I wanted at least one from that group.

Valkyrie
ID: 25110210
Sun, Aug 20, 2006, 14:00

for Hubble
6.14 London Fletcher, LB, BUF
I didn't want to wait any longer to secure a pillar as my first IDP. Top 5 for the last 2 years in tackle, Fletcher averaged 139 tackle since 2000 and plays for one of the best defense in the league. Should give me solid production again this year.

100

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Aug 20, 2006, 15:08

rationales for rounds 7-12

Forum: footPage 4616Subject: RIFC 2006: Draft Rationales #1

Forum: foot
Page 4616
Subject: RIFC 2006: Draft Rationales #1