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Subject: RIFC 2006: Draft rationales #3 (rds 13-18)

Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Wed, Aug 23, 2006, 11:47

Continuing for RIFC draft rounds 13-18.

Rationales for round 1-6

Rationales for round 7-12

leggestand
Leader
ID: 451036518
Wed, Aug 23, 2006, 15:26

for Hubble
13.01 Tampa Bay Defense
Best Defense on the board. I never had a top 20 defense before :)

leggestand
Leader
ID: 451036518
Wed, Aug 23, 2006, 15:26

for Goatlocker
13.02 Rodney Harrison, DB, NE
I am so locked into the risk side of things this year, that it isn't funny. And, at this point in the draft can't see not taking one of the top DBs in the game.

August 7, 2006
Rodney Harrison returned to the field Monday for the first time since a devastating knee injury more than 10 months ago, according to the AP. Harrison is not practicing at full speed, but he expects to be ready to go by the start of the season.

Having Junior around for emotional support will really help him also.

leggestand
Leader
ID: 451036518
Wed, Aug 23, 2006, 15:33

13.03 Jacksonville Defense

After taking Aaron Brooks at 12.12, I knew I would take a defense in Round 13. Three teams remained on my top tier (Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, and Baltimore). After Hubble took Tampa Bay at 13.01, I chose Jacksonville because they play Houston and Tennessee twice. They also play the Colts twice, but with Edge gone, I am hoping that their offense isn't that potent. Plus, last season they still put up 10 and 7 points up against the Colts, so, it's not like they get annihilated by the best offense in football.

I looked at the Jacksonville schedule, and this 8 game stretch in the middle of the season should pay nice dividends: Redskins, Jets, Texans, Eagles, Titans, Texans, Giants, Bills.

Round 13 values: Troy Williamson. Probably the #1 WR in Minnesota, with great speed and big playmaking ability. Could also get some return yards.

I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 59652217
Wed, Aug 23, 2006, 17:22

13.04 Mewelde Moore, RB, MIN
Based upon Moore's Recent ADP (152 in Non-IDP) alone warranted attention here…but given that little thing called return yardage (seems to be a recuring theme in my last 3 pics eh?), in which he's pencilled in to handle with the loss of ***undrafted player***, made him jump out at me here. I like having KR/PR options available to cover in case of injury... and of course should Chester Taylor not be able to handle the load...

for Athletics Guy
Leader
ID: 191202817
Wed, Aug 23, 2006, 17:30

13.05 Keyshawn Johnson, WR, CAR
I was one of two teams without a 3rd starting WR. It's a shame I didn't get Kevin Curtis, as he was on my queue for round 12. I'm hoping Keyshawn can be like what Muhsin Muhammad was to Steve Smith in 2004. It would be crazy of me to expect 15+ TDs, but he should still be one of the better #2 receivers in the NFL. I'm counting on him for 800+ yards and 6-7 TDs.

The Beezer
Leader
ID: 191202817
Wed, Aug 23, 2006, 17:32

13.06 Brian Dawkins, DB, PHI

I still think my sleeper picks on the offensive side of the ball will continue to slide, so the focus on IDPs continues. Looking at who's left on the board on the defensive side of the ball, one name jumped off the board at this point - Brian Dawkins.

Dawkins had a tremendous season last year, contributing in all phases of the game and averaging over 8 FPPG. He's getting a bit up there in years, but he's definitely got another year in him and should be a top 10 guy even with a slight decline from last year which is expected.

culdeus
ID: 25110210
Wed, Aug 23, 2006, 19:30

13.07 Kirk Morrison, LB, OAK

Another top 20 LB taken. I think I took my LBs too early. I got worried that people actually did some IDP research and were taking the good ones. In previous years top 20 LBs could be had at virtually any time. With Morrison OTB there were still a smattering of top 20 guys left. The sophistication and knowledge of IDPs had finally hit the big time beyond the "oooohhohohoohh I'll get a KR/PR as IDP and rule the world" research model. I do think I would have been better waiting on LBs and getting a better RB4 or WR4 though long term.

Valkyrie
ID: 25110210
Wed, Aug 23, 2006, 19:32

13.08 Michael Strahan, DL, NYG
Had him last year- think he's still got a couple years left in him especially with the pass rushers the Giants have around him.

TB
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Wed, Aug 23, 2006, 19:36

13.09 Isaac Bruce, WR, STL

This could turn out to be a wasted pick or it could be a great late round grab if Bruce bounces back from last seasons turf toe injury. Reports from training camp say he looks great and still has his speed. I don't think there is any doubt that he can make great catches when he is targetted. Hopefully he maintains WR#2 status in that offense. As my 4th receiver, I feel good about this pick. The two players that I had above him in my queue were Keyshawn Johnson and Kirk Morrison. Both were grabbed before I picked.

youngroman
ID: 43441182
Wed, Aug 23, 2006, 19:41

13.10 Indianapolis Colts, D/ST
after a few more defenses went off the board I thought this to be the right time to pick one. Indy is a team that allows few points, but more yards. They are like the Patriots, everything that counts is the score, no matter how many yards you give up. the other parts of defense scoring is forcing turnovers where Indy ranks in the middle of the pack and sacks where I see them in the top5.
playing in a weak division also helps. not too excited about this pick, but it had to be made. defense is one of the positions you can't really project because the scoring in our system depends heavily on the opposing offenses and not that much on own defense skills.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Aug 23, 2006, 20:22

13.11 Baltimore defense

I had trouble with this pick. For the slots where I still have starter openings, I didn’t find any of the top names compelling – or I found the relative depth to be adequate to wait a few rounds. I considered a 4th RB, but didn’t find one that I wanted badly enough to stockpile. I’ll want at least one more WR, but not this round.

I’m not sure what my approach to team defense will be this year. I was actually thinking of picking up Indy, who I held and started most of last year. But they disappeared last pick. While I don’t see a tremendous difference across the next half dozen defenses, Baltimore tops the list, doesn’t have a bye until week 7, and their early schedule looks OK – although I still might want to pick up a second one to start against some tougher teams (at Denver in week 5 might be one to avoid, for example).

This is the 4th defense taken this round. I guess it’s time to move. If the Ravens offense can stay on the field longer, and Ray Lewis is relatively healthy, they should improve over last year.

Doug
ID: 441251914
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 01:08

13.12 Adam Vinatieri, K, IND
Basically I didn't see much dropoff at the positions that I had yet to fill, so figured I might as well take my top-rated K. I figure I've probably got more to points to lose between him and a middle-tier K than I do by waiting a round or two to fill those other positions. I want a #4WR but pretty sure he'll come back to me since MC has 3 WRs and eserel has 4.

Motley Crue
ID: 2192327
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 06:38

13.13 Troy Williamson, WR, MIN

There’s certainly the potential for this guy to be Minnesota’s #1 WR. I think the fact that we are at the end of round 13 and no one has drafted any Minny WR’s speaks to the uncertainty of the situation up there. Troy’s talent is indicated by his status as a first round pick in the NFL draft. I’m hoping that he can establish himself in his second season. The press he’s been getting has given me reason to feel optimistic.

2005 upside: he played in 14 games last season and caught a pass in all but two of them. Granted there were only 3 weeks last season that his score was worthy of a fantasy start. But there has to be some improvement in year 2, right? This pick is based on a combination of his apparent, newfound opportunity; talent; and experience. I like to think he’ll be on my roster 6 weeks into the season, but the realist in me accepts that these are the kinds of picks that wind up being regretted at some point. I’d be very happy if he plays only 3 weeks all season for me covering the byes of my starters.

s R
ID: 861898
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 07:21

13.14 Mike Vrabel, LB, NE
Racked up 108 total tackles in 2005, adding 4.5 sacks and a pair of interceptions.
He's finally emerging as a top-tier performer.

14.01 Samkon Gado, RB, GB
After his rookie campaign, Gado remains in the Packers running back mix.
He's raw, but but he's also explosive.

Motley Crue
ID: 2192327
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 07:27

14.02 Seattle Seahawks, DEF, SEA

I won’t admit to being totally pressured into taking a defense at this point in the draft. My queue was Troy Williamson, Indianapolis Defense, and Baltimore Defense heading into my 13th round pick. I felt the Colts and Ravens were the last two of the very good and reliable defenses. However, ask a Patriots owner from last season how easy it is to predict performance from a Team Defense from season to season.

With that said, that’s about all we have to go by: how did a team do the previous year? The Seahawks of course did quite well in last year's scoring format, helped by that ridiculous outlier against the second string Philadelphia Eagles in December. The keys to this pick are that they didn’t give up loads of points or yards in `05; they were competitive with other teams in the turnovers department; and they play a schedule that I feel very good about this season. And once I realized I wanted them, I decided it would be a bad idea to wait another 24 picks until my 15th round choice.

As with my last pick, I believe that these midround picks are very important, yet they often wind up being the guys we cut. I am not married to Seattle. If they suck, I will cut them. There will be 10 or so Team Defenses on the FA list at any given time, and someone will emerge as a decent pick.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 09:09

for Doug
14.03 Samie Parker, WR, KAN

Felt it was pretty important to get a 4th WR here... unlikely 3 guys can stay healthy all year, and I also felt we were near the end of a tier of guys who I think are reliable. (Lots of darts with upside remain though).

I think Parker has upside as well, however... he looked solid late last year, and Kennison's 33.5 years old... so I think it's possible Parker could transition from #2 to #1 WR this year... or at least there might be an even split between the two.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 09:10

14.04 Steve McNair, QB, Bal

The QB ranks are thinning, and it’s time to land a backup. McNair has potential to be more than just a bye week filler, although his health is enough of a concern that I would be reluctant to draft him as my primary option. Eli Manning’s bye comes early (week 4), so the primary objective is to keep McNair healthy through at least then.

youngroman
ID: 43441182
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 09:59

14.05 Mike Anderson, RB, BAL
I have to make sure that I have 2 usable RBs every week. A Deuce injury can happen every week, so I have to prepare to have a valuable guy earlier than week7. The first step was Betts, the 2nd step is Anderson. altough both of my backups have their byes in the same week as their starters they are too much value to slip through. I may need 1 or 2 more RBs until the end of the draft to be safe at this position. it is always easier to get a replacement at one of the other positions because the dropoff between a starter and a backup is not that huge there.
Mike Anderson may be one injury away from being the starter in Baltimore. thats not for sure, but given his talent I don't see him below [undrafted].

TB
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 10:02

14.06 Jerious Norwood, RB, ATL

Jerious is one of the fastest rookie running backs to join the league this year. In both preseason games, I liked what I saw. Nice burst of speed, good hands, good vision and technique. They will find ways to get him involved in the offense because he has that quick-strike/big play ability. I had originally planned to draft him in the 17-18 round range. With Dunn and Duckett both on the team, he wasn't going to get enough looks unless one of them was injured. Now that Duckett has been traded, I think Norwood's value goes way up. I considered drafting my team defense in this spot, but believe I can wait a couple more picks and still get a comparable defense to my current top-ranked one.

Valkyrie
ID: 313182621
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 12:30

14.07 Derek Smith, LB, SF
Needing 3 flex Defensive players and my list of late round LB's evaporating I didn't see much choice even though I have other holes that still need to be addressed. Smith is/was a top defender on a poor defensive team which could see many teams running out the clock on them.

for culdeus
ID: 427202413
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 14:30

14.08 Drew Brees, QB, NOR

You have to like QBs on teams that will be behind in nearly every game due to their abortion of a defense. Good grief did you see them get shredded by Dallas the other night? Unreal. I like the fact that he has more weapons to throw to this year than just Gates. as a chance to become an alternating starter for me.

The Beezer
ID: 427202413
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 14:31

14.09 Philip Rivers, QB, SD

It looks like the focus of the draft has shifted back to the non-IDP categories, so it's probably a good time to start locking down backups for my main guys. The first area of concern is only having 1 QB on the roster currently, so I wanted a backup with a good schedule and some upside potential. Rivers fills the bill here.

Rivers is a risky pick, no question. He does come into an ideal situation in San Diego though with LT, Gates, and McCardell to help him keep from screwing up too much. Whether that will be enough or not remains to be seen, but I've heard enough blathering from the NC State fans around here about him that I've been brainwashed into thinking he's a top 10 guy potentially. I thought a long time about Favre but I just couldn't justify it at this point after all those picks last year, the crappy line, RB-o-whirl in the backfield, and that he almost retired.

A's Guy
Leader
ID: 451036518
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 15:34

14.10 Chris Perry, RB, Cin

It would have been better if I had gotten either Samkon Gado or Greg Jones, considering who my RBs were. Unofortunately, I waited too long on those guys. I still needed to add some depth to my RB position though and felt Chris Perry was the best one available. He might not be the starting RB in Cincinnati, but he'll still get a lot of touches. Unlike Rudi Johnson who doesn't catch many passes, Perry will play a big role in the Bengals' passing game.

Currently, he's got some injury issues, but he should be back after the first couple weeks of the regular season. Hopefully, Taylor and Green are still healthy by then.

IAC
Leader
ID: 451036518
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 15:34

14.11 Brian Simmons, LB, Cin

The veteran takes over the Middle for the Bengals (at least for the first 4 games of the season). Taking him here might prove to be a bit of a reach IF he doesn't keep the job all year, but initial reports seem to indicate he has a good chance, if not he'll flip back over to weakside, which isn't so bad either.

leggestand
Leader
ID: 451036518
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 15:46

14.12 Brett Favre, QB, GB

Just a value pick here. I have 2 QB's already, but Favre could end up being a starter on my team or someone elses by season end. I figured if I took an IDP, he had a 50/50 shot of being cut, but that Favre had at least an 80% chance of staying off the WW all season. The real goal would be to deal Brooks or Favre for a solid IDP sometime during the season, as someone will certainly need QB help.

Round 14 values: Brian Simmons. I couldn't believe he kept falling as the new Cincy MLB. I would of taken him earlier, but I did not think I should take a 4th LB yet.

Goatlocker
ID: 587262117
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 18:44

14.13 Sam Cowart, LB, Hou

Has a good shot at being the MLB for Houston. Was looking for one more MLB. Another risk, but we shall see.

Has the potential to be big in this Defense.

Hubble
ID: 587262117
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 18:44

14.14 Marty Booker, WR, MIA

14th round is there and i still dont have my 3rd WR... and i was starting to worry. I started to regret some of my pick by looking at who could have been my 3rd WR... and some managers had very good value in the later rounds. Marty Booker was the last WR with a BYE fitting my team worthy of #3WR avalaible and i'm relieved i drafted him. I see good things for Culpepper in MIA and i see good things for Chambers/Booker/McMichael. Booker should be back at aroung 800-900 yds + 6-8 TD. I have 2-3 names as WR#4 that would secure me in case Booker is a bust.

Hubble
ID: 587262117
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 18:45

15.01 Micheal Jenkins, WR, ATL

After 15th rounds, if you're a #1 receiver on your team and your're still avalaible... it tells a lot about your value... Blame your QB! 160yds/game and 15td pffff... who wants to receive from Vick?

Anyway, despite all that, Jenkins production should increase. In his 2nd full season he should improve his production by 25% and i think its reasonable to expect 750 yds and 6 TD. I must admit i had other WR ranked higher than him, but Jenkins was the only one that matched my BYE weeks. I like to think of this pick as being a safe 4th WR.

Goatlocker
ID: 587262117
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 18:45

15.02 Mark Brunell, QB, Wash

Strictly a bye week pick, but didn't want to wait much longer to make a move and feel comfortable I would at least have somebody that should be able to score and not kill me too bad.

leggestand
ID: 587262117
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 18:48

15.03 Ben Troupe, TE, TEN

I am very happy with this pick. Troupe has recently been named the #1 TE at Tennessee, which is huge seeing that Tennessee had the second most completions to TE's in NFL history last season. Given that Troupe was a backup TE last season and still put up 55 catches for 530 yards, he should get a lot more opportunities starting. Just as a quick estimate, if Troupe can keep the stats he had last season PLUS get 1/2 of the stats that the former starter got last season, he would end up with 82 receptions, 805 yards, and 5 TD's, not bad for the 13th TE off the board.

Also, further support for his ability to produce was shown when he started 3 games last season (Weeks 14, 15, and 17) and accumulated 18 catches for 233 yards and 1 TD.

Round 15 values: Moulds could be due for a decent season with a change in scenery and Clayton should be solid (plus may get some returns) especially if McNair doesn't look to Mason all season.

IAC
ID: 25110210
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 20:41

15.04 DeMeco Ryans, LB, HOU

The 06 Version of Vilma? Looks like Cowart (Once again) steps aside to let the Rookie take the starting MLB job. I wasn't sold on this pick being solid but it has enough upside to content me.

A's Guy
ID: 25110210
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 20:43

15.05 Billy Volek, QB, TEN

As a backup QB filling in for McNair, Billy Volek has not disappointed the Titans. In his 24-game career, he has a QB rating of 86.9 and a TD:INT ratio of 2:1. This year, he gets his chance to be the main guy in Tennessee and I think he'll do very well. He has already shown great chemistry with his go-to receiver Drew Bennett.

beezer
ID: 25110210
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 20:44

15.06 Roddy White, WR, ATL

It looks like WRs are getting ready to start flying off the board, and with Jenkins just now being selected, it looks like a good time to grab White before someone else does. He's one of the sleepers I had identified early in the draft.

Even with Lelie coming to the Falcons, I still think Roddy will be the home run threat for the Falcons. I see White and Jenkins both being reasons that Vick will improve his passing this season, so I think this is a good risk/reward pick at this point in the draft.

culdeus
ID: 25110210
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 20:44

15.07 Eric Moulds, WR, HOU

Meh, this is where taking IDPs too early might cost me. I'm looking at reasonably having to start this guy three times or more. Makes me want to open up my shirt and vomit straight down the front of it. Another guy that could get garbage time points as well as have some upside if AJ doesn't show up again for a whole season.

Valkyrie
ID: 25110210
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 20:48

15.08 Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG
Needed a third RB and the Giants goal line man seemed like the safest commidity- He won't get carries or yards but should contribute 5-6 TD's this year which is all I expect from him.

TB
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 20:58

15.09 Vernand Morency, RB, HOU

In the past I have always tried to fill out my roster (or most of it) before gambling on back-ups or players whose value goes up when the starter is injured. Not this year. The remaining players are all fairly equal to me, so I am looking for what I consider to be "value depth". I was hoping Morency made it back to me in this spot and he did. I have not heard any good news on Dom Davis, but even if there was some good news, Davis misses games every season. Before Morency exploded in their last preseason game, the coaches were already raving about how well he is running with the ball.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 21:36

for youngroman
15.10 Michael Pittman, RB, TAM

we have the 15th round and nearly all backup RBs were taken. with my first 4 RB having byes in week 7, 7, 8, 8 and felt the need of another back. I had only 3 teams left: TB, PIT and HOU. the situations in PIT and HOU aren't settled yet, so they would have been too risky. that leaves me with TB. I then looked (again) which manager has the starter on that team and saw that Guru has the Cadillac. The situation presented itself and I took the opportunity. Pittman is a valuable backup because he will see more plays than most other backups. there is also the possiblity that he might return kicks this year.

I have the feeling that my RB-corp isn't complete yet.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 21:37

15.11 Mark Clayton, WR, Bal

I really wanted Pittman with this pick, as Cadillac insurance. I was surprised to see him disappear one pick ahead of me to a team that already had 4 RBs. I’m not saying it was a bad decision. I just didn’t expect it, which made it all the more painful.

Moving on. Mark Clayton should be an acceptable bye week filler, and could even move into a regular starting slot on my squad. He finished last season strong, ranking 8th in fantasy points over the final five weeks after missing most of the first half with an ankle injury. He’ll be the third receiving option behind Mason and Heap, but if McNair can stay healthy, there should be ample balls heading his way if he can just haul them in.

For Doug
ID: 2192327
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 21:41

15.12 Terrell Suggs, DL, BAL

This guy's a stud, tons of fun to watch his motor, and moving to a more of a lineman-than-LB position this year in Baltimore's D. Rotowire is projecting him for 17 sacks and 50 tackles... yowzers. I'm not counting on THAT many sacks from him, but definitely double-digit... and he has less question marks to me than the other top-level DLs available.

Motley Crue
ID: 2192327
Thu, Aug 24, 2006, 21:42

15.13 Chris Simms, QB, TAM

I need a Week 6 bye covered for Peyton Manning. The Buccaneers play the Bengals in Tampa that weekend. Nice matchup. If things go well, Simms will never see the light of day for my fantasy team except that Sunday.

I do like Simms, however. He is surrounded by weapons on that team and has a coach with a scheme on offense demonstrated to be effective. If he blossoms into a fantasy superstar this year, I won’t be at all surprised. Phil’s kid has taken his lumps the last two years. I expect a step up to a consistent level of above average play… that will be mostly wasted on my bench. Or you could offer me a trade for him when he takes off.

I was thinking that leggestand deserved some props in this round for taking Ben Troupe at this point. I think that pick could be a real coup if things play out like I think they will in Nashville. And since legge is loathe to pat his own back, I’ll do it for him. Nice pick legge.

s R
ID: 861898
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 00:51

15.14 Julius Peppers, DL, Car
Peppers is an outstanding talent. Mega-athletic DE with fabulous speed.
He'll emerge as an overpowering force.

16.01 Dunta Robinson, DB, Hou
Totaled nearly 90 tackles in each of his two seasons with seven total interceptions and four sacks.
I expect him to get on track and dominate.

For MC
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 02:28

16.02 Reche Caldwell, WR, NWE

Free stratagem of the day: there is no such thing as too many WR’s in RIFC. I like to think that Caldwell could become some kind of breakout player in New England this season. The possibility certainly exists. He’s a good receiver, but has never put up good stats in the NFL due to injury and being behind better personnel. Assuming that Deion Branch follows through with his threat to hold out for a while, someone else will be catching Tom Brady passes. It’s not inconceivable to me that Caldwell will be the main someone. If he turns out to be the #1 guy this season for the Pats, this pick will look great. If not, you’ll all have forgotten it by week 2 as we jockey for claiming position following a massive flood of waivers.

My former Gators collection swells by 1, and now numbers 2 overall!

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 08:26

for Doug
16.03 Kellen Winslow, TE, CLE
I kept peeking at this position, but there were several I was indifferent between so I kept waiting. Finally decided that even though I didn't expect anyone to take a #2 TE soon, that Winslow had a leg up on the other options in terms of upside (eek... note to self: Don't use "Winslow" and "leg" in the same sentence.)

It's been two years of wasted potential for him, here's to hoping he finally begins to display his talent and get his life (and game) back on track.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 08:28

16.04 Ernie Sims, LB, Det

Another rookie LB! The 9th pick in the draft, recently named as the starting weakside LB. More than one site has compared him with Derrick Brooks, and he seems like one who can be an impact player from the outset. And even though the Detroit offense may be improved, the defense should still get to log plenty of minutes.

I now have 5 IDPs, missing only the obligatory DL. I thought about taking a DL here, but the depth available still looked OK. I looked seriously at several other LBs as well, but decided that Sims had the most potential.

If I had been able to land Pittman with the prior pick, I probably would have taken a WR here. So if Sims turns out well, I’ll have youngroman to thank for it!

youngroman
ID: 43441182
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 08:31

16.05 Madieu Williams, DB, CIN
he is a tackle machine for the DB position, that needs to get filled.
With his pick I only need a kicker and another IDP to complete my starting 15.

TB
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 09:33

16.06 Washington Defense

Okay, time to draft a defense before someone gets cute and starts drafting their second defense. Washington is the 6th rated defense on my sheet, but I only have them averaging one point better per game than the 17th ranked defense. I was flip-flopping between them and Miami. I like the week 8 bye and I almost pulled the trigger two rounds ago. Picking a defense is not a very exciting pick. Now I get to wait for 16 players to come off the board to see if Wali Lundy makes it back to me.

for Valkyrie
Leader
ID: 191202817
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 12:51

16.07 Morlon Greenwood, LB, Hou

Must admit I am not sure what I am doing here- still need defensive depth and a MLB on a poor team that will see many running plays can't be all bad- who is this guy ? I am afraid that I have never heard of him- a straight statistical pick.

for culdeus
Leader
ID: 191202817
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 12:52

16.08 Wali Lundy, RB, Hou

Honestly I think this might end up being the SOD. Sources inside Houston are really down on DD and Lundy has shown the most in camp and is typical of the style Kubiak has been running in Denver for all those years. I really like the odds that this guy could at least become trade bait someday. In a 14 team league you have to take some wild swings at RBs late and this is mine.

Overall comment: Who do I see as the frontrunners right now?

Leggestand is the clear frontrunner. Solid starters and depth at all skill spots. Hasn't concentrated much on IDP or others yet, but there is plenty of value out there to be had.

I sort of like TB's team just as much. I think he reached out too early for Brady, but it worked out by robbing Matt Jones in the 7th. Easily the SOD of the first 10 rounds. Like the IDPs as well.

That's it. There are some teams I think right now are clearly touching the bottom of the pool, but I'll hold off on that. I sort of see it as Legge and TB then a semi-small dropoff and then there are 5-7 teams in the same shape then 4 teams that I see as having little chance.

The Beezer
Leader
ID: 191202817
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 12:54

16.09 Julian Peterson, LB, SEA

No one left on the board other than at positions I don't care about right now is left that can be counted on. As such, it's time to take some chances and either hit a late round gem or get someone who can be tossed with a good conscience when needed.

For this pick, I was looking at getting my last IDP pick, and after the first couple of picks, I realized that I could potentially build my IDP squad so that none of them had overlapping bye weeks. That would mean that I could limit my IDP bench to a single slot. Furthermore, if I grabbed an LB with a week 5 bye, my LBs would have byes on weeks 3, 4, 5, and 6. I could then cover byes
until week 8 with just a single LB. Granted, turnover in those picks is likely going through the season, but it gives me some extra flexibility in my draft and in early season waiver pickups.

With all these factors in mind, I had focused on Julian Peterson about two rounds ago as an ideal fit that I felt would likely be available. It's not often that the 42nd LB off the board is a two-time Pro Bowler, but ACL injuries tend to do that. However, Seattle has expressed a lot of confidence in Peterson's abilities with the huge contract that he signed to join them, and he has looked really good in practice. Even though he won't be in an ideal position from a fantasy standpoint, he should still provide big play capability while steadily scoring a few points per week.

Athletics Guy
ID: 167191017
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 13:18

16.10 Jerry Porter, WR, OAK?

With the way things have gone in the offseason, I doubt Jerry Porter is going to remain in Oakland this year. I'm not sure how that will affect his value, could be good or could be bad. I was willing to take the risk on him though, since I already had 3 receivers and this was the 16th round.

I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 3579513
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 13:28

16.11 David Carr - QB, HOU
The last good option I saw left as a backup QB. With QB's selected as 13th and 26th of the board in their groups, I probably wasn't aggressive enough in drafting a backup. With a "revamped" offense… this could be his breakout year?

leggestand
Leader
ID: 451036518
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 13:56

16.12 Maurice Morris, RB, SEA

A handcuff for Alexander. As 53 RB's were off the board, I felt it was better to be safe than sorry, as I don't have the RB depth to lose Alexander without his backup. Morris should be able to put up decent stats should the unthinkable happen, especially given the 'Hawks easy schedule.

Round 16 value - Given that probably 50% of the players taken in Round 16 will be dropped at some point, Wali Lundy could prove to be a huge steal if he can earn the starting RB position while Davis is hurt. I was surprised TB didn't select him since he already had Morency.

GoatLocker
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 17:37

16.13 Chad Jackson, WR, NWE

Couldn't wait any longer on this pick. Figured I would take him first of the pair, just in case Hubble decided he needed another WR. Only had three WR so far, and two of them have the same bye week.

Starting to look very much like he will be the WR1 or WR2 for NE. Of course, we all know the ball will be spread around. He ran a 4.32 40 at the draft combine. He is known for having soft hands and being a tough receiver, willing to make catches in traffic.

Hubble
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 17:38

16.14 Greg Jennings, WR, GNB

Thought i'd give a shot to this prospect. Everything i've read about him was positive and he might be of some help later in the season. Has been quite impressive so far in spring.

17.01 Verron Haynes, RB, PIT

Some say he is going to be the goaline back if Parker cant make it in the first few games. RB backups can turn out to end up on the FA or make you look wise.

GoatLocker
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 17:38

17.02 Brandon Lloyd, WR, WAS

Think he matches up good with the previous pick. And it looks like he is the WR2 behind Santanna. So, double teams on the other side could open him up and help with his number of receptions. The Bye week matches up well with the others and should make this pick fit good as my 5th WR. Biggest issue is the fact he only caught 44% of the balls thrown his way last season.

leggestand
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 17:39

17.03 Bob Sanders, DB, IND

I have been targetting Sanders in all my IDP drafts. He put up 100 tackles last year and should exceed that this year with another year under his (young) belt. I also figured it was time to get my first DB. I also thought about taking K. Rhodes, E. Coleman, and a player yet to be drafted.

Round 17 values: Braylon Edwards. Towards the end of last season, he actually showed some of his potential. Even though he is on the Browns, he has the ability to put up some good #'s and start for valkyrie.

I_AM_CANADIAN
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 17:40

17.04 Darren Sharper, DB, MIN
Saw a lot of my "target" players drop off in the last round (16th) for this pick: Madieu Williams, Ernie Sims, Kellen Winslow. All their risk/reward levels seemed very interesting to me. Sharper should be switching over to SS this year, which could improve his tackle #s. Also, his ability to have HUGE games I find interesting due to the fact I've already got "stable" #s coming from the 4 LBs that I've drafted. The icing on the cake is the occassional work he gets on special teams... overall, this "overvalued" player, slipped back into a good value pick IMO.

AthleticsGuy
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 17:40

17.05 Takeo Spikes, LB, BUF

First Bruschi, then Perry, and now Takeo Spikes. It seems like I'm drafting a lot of players who have injury issues heading into the season. Like Bruschi, Spikes is capable of being a top 20 LB assuming his surgically repaired Achilles' tendon has healed. He hasn't seen any preseason action yet, but he seems to be close to being game-ready.

The Beezer
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 17:40

17.06 Cedrick Wilson, WR, PIT

Randle-El's departure for Washington left Wilson in the WR2 slot in a run-heavy offense. Not exactly a prescription for superstardom.

However, Ward's hamstring troubles have given Cedrick a chance to show what he can do as a WR1, and he seems to be capable of solid production. If Ward were to miss time during the season, Wilson would benefit greatly. Worth a shot in round 17 at least.

culdeus
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 17:41

17.07 Miami Dolphins, DEF, MIA

Well well well look who took a D/ST. Deal with it. The bench is so deep this year and people keep whiffing on DB picks that I figured it was time to take one this year with a cush schedule early and late.

valkyrie
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 17:41

17.08 Braylon Edwards, WR, CLE
We are in risk territory now and Edwards has as high an upside as anyone else. Not supposed to be ready for start of the season but hopefully I won't need him for a few weeks anyway.

TB
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 17:42

17.09 Chris Gamble, DB, CAR

Not only did Wali Lundy not make it back to me, he went two picks later. I've had my eye on Gamble for a while now. Not only is he one of the best corners in the league, but as a bonus, he sometimes returns punts. A recent article stated that he should be used even more on returns this year. For defensive backs, he ranked 6th last year and that was in 15 games. Even though he is the 19th DB to be drafted, I expect him to put up top 10 numbers again. I know I still need a LB or two and will have to address that with my next pick.

youngroman
ID: 43441182
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 17:51

17.10 Brad Johnson, QB, MIN
26 QBs were gone, only 6 game1-starters are left. The options are:
BUF (unproven)
NYJ (injury prone)
CLE (unproven)
MIN (old)
CHI (unproven and injury prone and not named starter yet)
SF (unproven)

I'll better take the old and proven guy that has hopefully something left in the tank in week4 vs. Buffalo. as long as Plummer stays healthy I should be fine with this pick. interesting how quick all the middle-tier starters went off the board. only time will tell if my QB-strategy works this year.

For Guru
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 18:11

17.11 William Green, RB, CLE

After barely missing out on handcuffing Cadillac to Pittman, I decided to get Droughns handcuffed. I guess it’s my actuarial/risk management background coming to the fore. However, as time wears on, it's becoming less clear whether Green is really the #2 RB or not. We probably won't know unless and until Droughns goes down.

I still have starting holes at DL and K, but there is no rush on those. There are probably a dozen at each of those positions I could accept. Green has much more value to me than to anyone else, but after waiting one round too long on Pittman, I’m not taking the chance.

For Doug
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 18:12

17.12 Michael Turner, RB, SDG

Was highly dubious he'd make it back to me after last pick, but felt the starter at TE took precedence... I had actually been eyeing Turner for a good 3+ rounds.

Obviously it would take an injury for him to get major playing time, but he's demonstrated he can produce when given the opportunity... as such, I think he's got the most upside of any of the definite "RB #2" backs (I'm not comparing him to various RBBC backs or position-battle backs).

Motley Crue
ID: 2192327
Fri, Aug 25, 2006, 18:16

17.13 Sammy Knight, DB, KAN

I was slightly miffed when TB told me he was going to take Chris Gamble with his 17th round pick, for the simple fact that the guy is a stallion that might even return a few kicks or punts this year. And I needed a DB badly here. I had Sammy Knight ranked as the 3rd best DB available, but I’m concerned about his age leading to decreased effectiveness (as it appears to have a bit last season) and in turn reduced playing time. There’s no doubt he can score 100 fantasy points or more in this format, if he plays the whole season. I’m hoping for 16 games out of him. He fits my IDP bye week shuffle well, so that works.

[Heh. TB said "inserted".]

s R
ID: 861898
Sat, Aug 26, 2006, 07:05

17.14 Peerless Price, WR, BUF
It's time to pick sleepers. Price's best days were in a Buffalo uniform.
The Bills seem to be stockpiling short, shifty receivers, and Price fits that role well.

18.01 Brian Griese, QB, CHI
Griese is the prototypical NFL quarterback.
He's back to 100 percent and might eventually work his way into the stating lineup.

Motley Crue
ID: 2192327
Sat, Aug 26, 2006, 08:43

18.02 Musa Smith, RB, BAL

At the beginning of this draft, I would have never thought I’d be interested in a guy like this. He’s like, third string, or something. What’s the point? But as we’ve progressed and as I’ve done more research to dig deep for those last couple of gems we all know are hiding in the player pool, I began to realize that Musa Smith is a decent RB and more importantly, he could get an opportunity this season. That’s what it’s all about for most RB’s: a chance.

With Jamal Lewis still recovering from various leg maladies (and basically cementing the impression that he sucks last season), someone else in Baltimore’s RB stable will likely see carries. I agree that it’s probably going to be Mike Anderson. However, I am not certain of this, and as Musa has played well in pre-season games, I think the risk here is worth it. He’s a guy I can feel comfortable stashing on my bench for a few weeks until we see how things play out in Charm City, and then I can move forward from there.

We all know someone will emerge at some point as a valuable player, and we’ll all say “That guy? I thought about drafting him a few times but I never thought he’d be any good.” Musa Smith is that type of player.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Aug 26, 2006, 09:31

for Doug
18.03 Neil Rackers, K, ARI
At this point, I'm just drafting some IDP filler and bye week filler, etc. In the meantime, I'm noticing that Vinatieri's injury is lingering and there's an actual perceived dropoff in Ks still (to me), just about any other position left is all just "plateau"... just a question of who you want to throw a dart at. I really don't think there's much to gain or lose by throwing a dart now versus in a couple rounds... I just had a 4-player queue last for 3 rounds.

But most of all, I just wanted to see how culdeus would react to me taking another K at this point. That thought alone brought a smile to my face as I clicked to draft him. =-)

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Aug 26, 2006, 09:33

18.04 Cedric Houston, RB, NYJ

Who knows what the Jets running game will look like? With Barlow and Houston, I have two of them, and if all goes well, I can leave them on my bench for awhile to see how things shake out. Houston may be the Barlow handcuff, or vice versa, or neither, or others may be thrown into the mix. Worst case is probably the dreaded RBBC.

Again, I opted to pass on two open starting slots, DL and PK. I'll risk letting Doug corner the market on kickers.

youngroman
ID: 43441182
Sat, Aug 26, 2006, 09:44

18.05 Gerald Hayes, LB, ARI
he is the starting MLB for now and may stay there all season if he continues to play like in the preseason: 7 tackles, 1 INT, 1 FF in week1.
if he loses his position he can be found on waivers soon.

TB
Sherpa
ID: 031811922
Sat, Aug 26, 2006, 12:12

18.06 EJ Henderson, LB, MIN

I think there are less than 30 LB left that I would draft, so I had better get my 2nd one now in case people never stop drafting them. EJ is the weakside linebacker for a young and improving Minnesota Defense. He struggled at MLB two years ago, but played much better from the weakside position last year. He will fill the LB position for me on week 5 and probably get a few starts in the flex position. I seriously debated drafting Bobby Engram in this spot, but felt like I had better grab another LB.

Athletics Guy
ID: 167191017
Sat, Aug 26, 2006, 13:00

for Valkyrie
18.07 Jay Feely, K, NYG
Ok a little early for a kicker but why not take someone who will play every week and out score the average kicker by a point or 2 a week rather than another one of the long shots that may or may not ever help you or play more than a week or 2?

Athletics Guy
ID: 167191017
Sat, Aug 26, 2006, 13:00

for culdeus
18.08 David Givens, WR, TEN
Another late gift I thought. Has a chance to become a WR1 in a crappy system, yes, but a WR1 in another pass late and pass often system. Has some injury concerns that are minor and don't really concern me right now as a WR5.

Side Note: I will say that I spit up coffee when I saw who Doug took this round. Though looking back on it what is worse? Taking a PK 5 rounds too early or having that PK come up gimp and you have to take a PK in the range that they are supposed to go? At some point you just suck it up and go with what you've got right?

Athletics Guy
ID: 167191017
Sat, Aug 26, 2006, 13:00

for the Beezer
18.09 Michael Bennett, RB, KC

With the RB pool nearly completely depleted, no one that can be drafted at this point will be a contributor unless an injury occurs. The question is, who would be in the best position if they gained a starting role due to injury? After reviewing who was left, it's obvious to me that a likely candidate would be Michael Bennett.

As the #2 currently on the depth chart in KC, if something were to happen to LJ, he would get the first crack at toting the rock in that offense. This will likely be a wasted pick, but the 5% payout on this bet is pretty significant, so we'll gamble here.

Athletics Guy
ID: 167191017
Sat, Aug 26, 2006, 13:01

18.10 Dallas Cowboys Defense

I put off taking a team defense long enough. There were a couple teams I wouldn't have minded taking here. To be honest, they all seem about the same to me now. All the elite defenses were gone (which is good since I wound up drafting the disappointing Ravens last year). At the end of the 18th round, Dallas shouldn't be too bad of an option.

I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 59652217
Sat, Aug 26, 2006, 14:19

18.11 Ian Gold, LB, DEN
I'm really happy with the group of MLBs that I'd collected up till now… but… I have over-lapping bye weeks twice with them. Grabbing another LB, and then a backup CB later will be needed to correct this. Weakside Back in a good unit. Not expecting anything huge... but still a solid LB.

GoatLocker
Sustainer
ID: 060151121
Sun, Aug 27, 2006, 10:20

for leggestand
18.12 Leon Washington, RB, NYJ
I don't have any idea what is going to happen at RB for the NYJ, but with Barlow and Houston drafted, I figured I could try and strike gold with Washington. From what I've seen in preseason, Washington appears to at least be handling the kickoff return duties, and could possibly be carving out a small role as a 3rd down back. He is a rookie, and if the NYJ running game falters, as most people expect, maybe he will get a shot. He could also end up as the 1st guy I cut after Week 1.

Round 18 values: I like Musa Smith, and is who I would of taken had he made it to me. I also think Givens, as the likely #1 WR at Tennessee, is a great bye week filler for culdeus' WR corps.

GoatLocker
Sustainer
ID: 060151121
Sun, Aug 27, 2006, 10:24

18.13 Charles Grant, DL, NO
Was time to take care of the DL slot.
His Sacks have fallen off drastically last year.
Hoping they come back a little, but expect his tackle #s to remain solid.
Should be servicable in this slot and at this time in the draft.

Hubble
ID: 185332620
Sun, Aug 27, 2006, 22:31

18.14 Eric Coleman, DB, NYJ

How many DB have had 100+ tackles in their first 2 season? I had Coleman on my sqad last year and was very plz to see him bring 10FP every week. I see him as a every-week IDP starter. Another player i had highlighted on my cheet.

Guru
ID: 185332620
Sun, Aug 27, 2006, 22:36

Rationales for rounds 19-24

Forum: footPage 4629Subject: RIFC 2006: Draft rationales #3 (rds 13-18)

Forum: foot
Page 4629
Subject: RIFC 2006: Draft rationales #3 (rds 13-18)