Forum: foot
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Subject: RIFC 2007: Draft Rationales #3 (Round 13-18)


  Posted by: I_AM_CANADIAN - Donor [1361448] Fri, Aug 24, 2007, 00:08

...continued
 
1I_AM_CANADIAN
      Donor
      ID: 1361448
      Fri, Aug 24, 2007, 00:10
13.01 Patrick Willis, LB, SF
Last year, I was able to grab the "up and coming" DeMeco Ryans in the 15th round. Willis and Posluszny are the two LBs that seem to have the highest chance to have that type of breakout ability. I decided on Willis because he's already won the battle to be the starter at the beginning of the year, whereas "Poz", while looking spectacular in the games I've seen, has yet to secure his job. Willis/Sims both share the same bye week, but that shouldn't be a major concern as I've been carefull to not have overlapping byes at the other postions.

Best Pick of Round 13: 13.10 Ronald Curry
Stretch of Round 13: 13.11 Marcel Shipp
 
2The Beezer
      Dude
      ID: 191202817
      Fri, Aug 24, 2007, 00:25
13.02 – Karlos Dansby, LB, ARI

Dansby is a gifted player who is just now really coming into his own. Over the last six games of last season he averaged double digits in FP/G. I believe he’ll maintain that pace this season and be a top 10 LB as a result.
 
3Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Aug 24, 2007, 15:04
for holt
13.03 E.J. Henderson, LB, MIN

Henderson moves back to MLB this season. A lot of LB's were off the board at this point, so I took a look at a slew of various IDP cheatsheets and Henderson averaged out to be the highest LB available. The Vikings run the Tampa-2 and that concerns me a bit. The MLB does a lot of pass coverage in that defense. I guess we'll wait and see. Definitely drafting a few more LB's though.

 
4Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Aug 24, 2007, 15:04
for Smith32
13.04 Brandon Marshall WR DEN

After I drafted Gibril Wilson, I realized that I needed to add some risk-reward players to my lineup. Marshall seems to fit that description. I would expect defenses to focus on containing Javon Walker and the running game, so that should give Marshall some opportunities to make plays. Seeing that he was in Guru's queue and made the Best Value list helped my confidence in this pick.

 
5Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Aug 24, 2007, 15:04
for Bags
13.05 Bart Scott, LB, BAL

Scott finished tied for 11th in points last year along with Witherspoon and Ware. Scott is a combo of both those players. He finished with 103 total tackles and 9.5 sacks. I have no doubt he can repeat his numbers, BAL LB’s don’t fall off in production until they leave BAL.

 
6Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Aug 24, 2007, 15:05
for Goatlocker
13.06 Julius Peppers DL CAR

Not bad for a 13th round pick to get one of the top 5 DL.
Decided it was time to stop waiting and get him while the getting was good.
Expect him to be near the top of the heap in sacks, and he is also always a threat to score a TD.
Recovers one to two fumbles a year.

 
7Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Aug 24, 2007, 15:05
for BMD
13.07 Steve McNair QB BAL

I made this pick without much time for research. I knew I needed a backup QB in case Young gets injured. Rather than take another guy that could either be good or suck I decided to take a guy that has a good chance of not being great or bad. Also, McNair should give Young some good tips on how to run Tennessee offense.

 
8Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Aug 24, 2007, 15:06
for Nerfherders
13.08 James Farrior, LB PIT

Good tackling LB on a good defense. I dont know what else to say. Soild yet unspectacular!
 
9Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Aug 24, 2007, 15:06
for Greybear
13.09 Paul Posluszny LB BUF

With only one LB on my roster, and having seen a bit of a run on them, I wanted to secure a solid No. 2 to complement Bulluck. Posluszny replaces London Fletcher who saw lots of action in the Buffalo scheme. He has averaged above 90 solo tackles in the last 5 years. I’m hoping that Posluszny will see just as many targets; as a rookie, I am also hoping that offences will try to exploit him resulting in an increased number of targets. He is in as best of a situation as you can get for high production in a rookie year and I am expecting top 10 to 15 numbers from him.

 
10Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Aug 24, 2007, 15:10
13.10 Ronald Curry, WR, Oak

Just what I wanted,… an offensive player on Oakland!

I had originally hoped to get Ted Ginn as my WR4 sometime around this part of the draft, but leggestand jumped me by more than a full round.

Here are the slots I’m considering at this stage:
I need a backup QB behind McNabb.
I need a 4th receiver.
I need 3 more starting IDP, one of which must be a lineman.
I want a second defense at some point.

In terms of regular playing time, the IDPs will have the biggest impact. But a 4th WR could also get decent usage, not only as a bye filler, but as an injury/disappointment replacement. And the ranks at WR seem to be thinning rapidly – even though I’m sure decent options will emerge on the waiver wire after the season starts.

After my last pick, the next four drafters all took WRs, so I started scouring through the list of available receivers, and developed a short list of three: Brandon Marshall, Brandon Jones, and Curry – with Curry my clear 3rd choice. As fate would have it, the two Brandons were taken since then – the only two WRs who were drafted since then. I don’t expect that type of queue precision at this stage of the draft, but it is what it is.

I guess this pick has some upside, as he should be starting. On the other hand, he’s still available because of a spotty history, a weak offense, and a QB situation that’s likely to change mid-season. I’ve seen yardage projections ranging from the 500s to the 900s, with 3-6 TDs. His bye week doesn’t collide with any of my other receivers, and he seems to be healthy for now, just in case either Devery Henderson or Terry Glenn’s preseason injuries turn out to linger into week #1.
 
11youngroman
      ID: 3751268
      Fri, Aug 24, 2007, 15:25
13.11 Marcel Shipp, RB, ARI
it was time to grab a 3rd running back. Shipp is the backup in case Edge (my #2) is hurt. there are also some thoughts in Arizona that he may be the teams kick returner. if he turns out to return some balls he may be even worth a spot-start when my #1 has his bye in week 10.

not very excited about him (or any other RB available), but a handcuff is a handcuff.
 
12leggestand
      Leader
      ID: 451036518
      Fri, Aug 24, 2007, 15:32
13.12 Adalius Thomas, LB, NE

Time to get a 2nd LB and Thomas was my best available. He is a freak of nature, with the best example being that he was one of the Ravens gunners on punt coverage, which is usually reserved for backup RB's, WR's, or DB's. He doesn't get a ton of tackles, but he is a playmaker that can get INT's, Sacks, and fumbles. He will probably have some games with 3 points, but on the flip side have some games with 15 points. As long as he can average out around 8, I am probably fine with that. The good thing is that New England is probably moving him to ILB, which should open up the gates for more tackles. Plus, I imagine that they will shift him around to make some of the bigger plays that I spoke of previously.

Best 13th Round Value: Brandon Marshall at 13.04
Biggest 13th Round Stretch: Steve McNair at 13.07
 
13Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 599142218
      Fri, Aug 24, 2007, 16:18
13.13 Eagles D

Before worrying too much about backups other than RB, WR/TE, I want to make sure I'm not grasping when it comes to my starters (especially for kickers - gotta load up on kickers early). The top D's are all gone, but don't want to settle late; the Eagles and NotDrafted stood out to me as being the best choices here, and I went for the Eagles - probably for no other reason that I expect their offense to be on the field more often so they may not give up as many points.
 
14s R
      ID: 861898
      Fri, Aug 24, 2007, 16:21
13.14 Matt Jones, WR, Jac
This will be Jones' third year in the NFL…the Jaguars top option at the receiver position...???

14.01 Derrick Brooks, LB, TB
Eleven 100-total-tackle seasons? Never missed a game? Pick him?
 
15Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 599142218
      Fri, Aug 24, 2007, 17:02
14.02 Antoine Winfield, DB, Minn

I needed a defensive back, and he was one. Plus he was somewhat highly rated on the IDP cheatsheets I keep glancing at.
 
16youngroman
      ID: 3751268
      Fri, Aug 24, 2007, 17:05
for leggestand
14.03 Alex Smith, QB, SF

Well, I assume I will start Brees every game he is healthy (by the way 35-39 the last two preseason games!?!?!?!), so, I am just looking for a guy with a good matchup on his bye week (week 4). Alex Smith fits the bill playing at home that week against the Seahawks. Not an ideal matchup, but I think it's good enough, plus, I believe Alex Smith could actually end up a top 15 QB, which is better than a lot of guys still out there. If Brees goes down, knock on wood, I feel I can stick Smith in there and survive instead of trading.

Best Value of 14th Round: Vernand Morency at 14.04
Biggest Reach of 14th Round: Brian Leonard at 14.13
 
17youngroman
      ID: 3751268
      Fri, Aug 24, 2007, 17:05
14.04 Vernand Morency, RB, GB
2nd backup? RB in a row. he is coming back from an injury. I expect that he sees more action (if not even starting action) in the 2nd half of the season where I need him because of my late byes. From todays point of view I will only need to play him in week 8. that is a perfect fit with him having a bye the week before so he has 2 weeks time to rest to be on top of his game when I need him the most.
 
20Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Aug 24, 2007, 17:46
14.05 J.P. Losman, QB, Buf

I have three starting IDP slots still open. But there are plenty of viable players still available.

I have McNabb as my starting QB, and given his health history, I think I need to have a viable backup QB. There aren’t many of those left.

Plusses:
Good second half schedule, and reasonable matchup for McNabb’s bye week.
Marshawn Lynch provides better receiving option than McGahee.
Durable
Finshed well last year (ranked 8th in total pts among QB over last 7 weeks)

Minuses:
Doubles up my exposure a bit, with Lee Evans as my WR1
It’s J.P. Losman

If I have to rely on him for much more than McNabb’s bye week, I’m probably in trouble. But there is some upside potential there – enough to keep me in the game if the rest of my lineup performs.
 
21Nerfherders
      ID: 64532914
      Fri, Aug 24, 2007, 19:43
for Greybear
14.06 Kevin Jones, RB, DET

You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to know that you need depth at this position to succeed in fantasy football. I’m operating under the assumption that there will be injuries. If the injuries are on my team, then I believe that I have picked up some good replacements/stand-ins such as Green and Jones. If all of my RBs – or 4 of them - turn out to be healthy starters, then they are great bargaining chips for teams in need come the end of the season or playoff time. Although Jones is on PUP for the moment, he could very well end up with his job back come the second half of the season as Bell has not proven to be the most durable of RBs: as a matter of fact, he is currently nursing a shin injury.

 
22Nerfherders
      ID: 64532914
      Fri, Aug 24, 2007, 19:47
14.07 Denver Broncos, DEF

I needed to finally grab a defense and couldnt wait anymore. I like Denver's schedule, going up against several mediocre offenses. For SD and IND matchups I'm hoping to get counterpart DEF later. Last year I combined DEN and PHI defenses to actually score better than either defense, so hopefully I can do that again this year.
 
23Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Aug 24, 2007, 19:52
for bmd
14.08 Rashean Mathis, DB, JAX

I really hate this pick. For some reason I thought Tillman was already gone or else I would've picked him. Also, if I would've spent a little more time on this pick I would've probably selected Gaither as I think he'll be huge this year and most of the DB's left are a crapshoot. Blah.

 
24Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Aug 24, 2007, 19:53
for Goatlocker
14.09 Chad Pennington, QB, NYJ

The plan had been to pick up Matt Schaub as my back up QB.
Once he went in front of me, I had to go back and reassess.
Pennington was also on my short list, so I really don't feel that bad about the pick.
Especially in the 14th round.

Should work just fine, and could be a pleasant surprise.

 
25The Beezer
      ID: 437381216
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 07:49
for Bags
14.10 Charles Tillman, DB, CHI

Picking were getting slim for DB’s. Tillman, Winfield, and Mathis were the highest rated players I had on my queue. Tillman was the only one who made it to me. The last two years he has averaged 87 tackles and 5 int’s. I’ll be happy with that kind of consistency.

 
26The Beezer
      ID: 437381216
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 07:49
for Smith32
14.11 D.J. Williams, LB, DEN

I drafted Williams because I wanted to see how many guys named Williams I could take in one draft. No, not really. The DJ edition of Williams moves to the inside LB spot, which should result in a nice increase in his tackle stats. Well, at least I think he's moving to ILB. From Rotoworld: The Broncos say they will not hesitate to move D.J. Williams back to outside linebacker if his experiment in the middle doesn't go well early in the year. But hey, an "experiment" seems perfect for the middle rounds.

 
27The Beezer
      ID: 437381216
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 07:49
for holt
14.12 Derrick Johnson LB KAN

I like Johnson. KC's 1st rd pick from 2005. Had almost 100 tackles his rookie year, then was slowed by an ankle injury last season. Great athlete, and playing weak-side LB won't hurt his tackling opportunities any. Hoping he really breaks out this season.

fwiw, I felt a little bad about not taking Brian Leonard here as beezer grabbed him on the next pick. Probably not that big a deal, but I was hoping he'd fall just a bit lower. Oh yeah, then beezer snagged Omar Gaither right before my 15.03 pick.

 
28The Beezer
      ID: 437381216
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 07:54
14.13 Brian Leonard, RB, STL

I had noted before the draft even started that I needed to keep an eye out for when Michael Turner went off the board, especially if he was taken by someone other than IAC. Once I saw that, I didn't want to mess around too much and lose my SJ handcuff, so I probably overpaid a bit.

Indications are that Leonard would probably be a decent option if the unthinkable were to occur. He's got a lot of offensive weapons to help him take off the pressure and he looks like he has some talent of his own. I didn't have anyone on my board at this point that couldn't wait so I decided to play it safe and pull the trigger early.
 
29I_AM_CANADIAN
      Donor
      ID: 1361448
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 08:02
14.14 Heath Miller, TE, PIT
After a great rookie season, Miller regressed a bit last season. The health of Roethlisberger is what I believe to be the culprit. Miller being a first round choice, we know he has good potential. I'm hoping that this year, with a healthy QB, and a more "open" passing game, that Miller will set carreer #s. 500+ yds, 6TDs doesn't seem out of his reach.

Best Pick of Round 14: 14.06 Kevin Jones
Stretch of Round 14: 14.09 Pennington
 
30I_AM_CANADIAN
      Donor
      ID: 1361448
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 08:11
15.01 Brian Dawkins, DB, PHI
Dawkins has been an anchor in the Eagles secondary for years. He seems to always be involved in plays. He gets a healthy dose of takles, and a very large # of PDs every year. Age is starting to become a factor, however. I took him over some other LBs out there, because I feel he can put of the same amount of FFpoints, and... I do have to start at least 1 DB. Overall... I'm really happy with this pick.

Best Pick of Round 15: 15.01 Brian Dawkins
Stretch of Round 15: 15.06 Drew Carter
 
31The Beezer
      ID: 437381216
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 08:19
15.02 Omar Gaither, LB, PHI

i wanted LB he's good and tackles people

OK, the real rationale is that the Eagles releasing redacted cleared the way for Gaither to get into the lineup at MLB. As the starter, Gaither will have every opportunity to make plays all over the field. I'm expecting him to play at an LB1-level all season. Hopefully this will pan out as well as my IDP picks from previous years, such as redacted, redacted, redacted, and of course who could possibly forget redacted?
 
32Bags
      ID: 2500120
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 09:32
for holt
15.03 Demorrio Williams LB ATL

He's coming off surgery for a torn pectoral but reports from camp sound pretty good. He's smallish for linebacker, but he's got a great motor and piles up the tackles (127 tackles in '05). His numbers were down last year because he was relegated to a backup role (probably because of his small size) but the starting job is his once again. Tacklin' fuel!

 
33Bags
      ID: 2500120
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 09:32
for Smith32
15.04 Minnesota Vikings, DEF

After I failed to get either BAL or CHI, I decided to look for 2 defenses that had schedules that meshed pretty well. I decided to go with the Vikings and the Packers. Each play 6 games within the NFC North (all of which I consider favorable matchups for fantasy defense - heck with Grossman, you don't even have to force the fumbles, just recover them), both play the Raiders and the Chiefs, and both have good playoff matchups. Frankly, I don't know much about the individuals on the Vikings D, but they scored well last year, so I'm just going to hope they score well when they have favorable matchups this year.

 
34Bags
      ID: 2500120
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 09:39
15.05 Aaron Schobel,DL,BUF

With 19 picks until my next pick I was looking at other team needs that might get taken in the next two rounds. DL seemed to be one of the biggest starting positions that could go before my next pick.

Schobel was one of the last 100 point guys from last year and was also rated as a top 10 guy for fantasy DL IDP's. Welcome aboard.
 
35GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 10:55
15.06 Drew Carter, WR, CAR
Felt I needed a little more depth at WR and actually had him in the 4th tier group.
Only use should be for Bye weeks, but could surprise and would help back up my solid core of receivers.
 
36Nerfherders
      ID: 64532914
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 14:51
for bmd
15.07 Julian Peterson, LB, Sea

He was the highest ranked LB left on my ranking and I needed another IDP. I didn't see any other guys sticking out at any of the other positions so I went with a guy that will fill a starting spot. Not looking for anything spectacular from Peterson but I think he'll be a decent 3rd LB for my team.

 
37Nerfherders
      ID: 64532914
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 14:56
15.08 Tony Hunt, RB PHI

I wanted one more RB and there was really no great options but Tony Hunt should at least see alot of goal line situations. Ive followed him at Penn State and no he's a really good downhill runner so he should do well at the NFL level. With Undrafted out for awhile he might even see some regular playing time as a changeup to Westbrook. There's alot of upside here.
 
38Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 15:07
for Greybear
15.09 Stephen Cooper, LB, SDG

With the departure of Donnie Edwards back to KC and (undrafted) being released, San Diego’s defence has opened the door to (undrafted) and Stephen Cooper to walk right into a starting gig. Cooper saw more time on the field than (undrafted) last year, which is why I chose him. He has strong potential due to the Charger’s scheme and should get a lot of targets. Again, I went with a younger player with an inside position as I believe this typically generates good fantasy production.

 
39Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 15:08
15.10 Terrell Suggs, DL, Bal

I went after several IDP early in the draft (rounds 5, 8, & 10) to try to score some of the elite producers, with the thought that I could then wait until rounds 15-20 to fill in the corps.

So here we are. With 3 starting IDP still to go, I need at least one DL and one more LB. Based on the makeup of the teams picking between by 15th and 16th rounds, I think I’ll get my DL now.

I’m hoping that Suggs can be a “set it and forget it” DL for me this season – although I have had some success in the past in picking up viable DLs as free agents (which also suggests that I haven’t drafted them very well, I suppose). Looking for double-digit sacks and a smattering of the other “hustle stats” to go with the usual tackles for a lineman. I have him ranked in the top 5 among DLs; and as the 5th DL drafted, I’m getting fair value, although certainly not a “screaming deal”.

 
40youngroman
      ID: 3751268
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 15:10
15.11 Jake Delhomme, QB, CAR
21 QBs were taken, so only 11 starters are available. viewing through the options on those 11 teams I see a lot who have not decided who to start in week 1. only a few have a true starter and of them I see only 2 options: Delhomme and Grossman who has the same bye as Marc Bulger (my #1). this leaves me with Delhomme. Carolina signed [undrafted] in the offseason to bring in some competition, but Delhomme is still the #1 and can do great in week 9 at TEN because they have only an average pass defense at best.

10 picks ago I thought that it would be time to take a defense with this pick, but this was before a realized that QB were already really thin. my preferred choices at D are Miami or Jacksonville. I only expect s_r to pick up a defense because leggestand and Slackjawed Yokels already have one, so I am ok to take the remaining D in round 16.
 
41leggestand
      ID: 87382018
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 15:17
15.12 Owen Daniels, TE, HOU

Only 3 teams didn't have TE's since Round 12 or so: s R, IAC, and me. Out of the TE's left, I liked two of them: Heath Miller and Owen Daniels, in no particular order. Since I split IAC and s R's picks, I knew I could wait until they take one of my choices, and then I would take the remaining guy.

I like Owen Daniels because I like what Matt Schaub does with his TE's. He used Crumpler consistently when he got playing time in Atlanta and he made Heath Miller the nations best TE at UVA. With the introduction of the West Coast offense to the Texans, I firmly believe Daniels will end the season as a top 10 TE.

Best Round 15 Steal: Julian Peterson at 15.07
Biggest Round 15 Stretch: Drew Carter at 15.06
 
42Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 599142218
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 18:38
15.13 Freddy Keiaho, LB, Ind

He's new the weakside linebacker for the Colts so should stand to get a lot of tackles. He really came into his own in the playoff run last year, and now will be an integral part of the Colt's D.
 
43s R
      ID: 599142218
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 18:42
15.14 Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ind
Gonzalez has the most promise of the three challengers for the No. 3 job at the passing powerhouse in Indy.

16.01 Sean Taylor, DB, Was
He has seemed on the verge of becoming a true dominator. Hopefully he's in line for another Pro Bowl season.

 
44Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 599142218
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 18:46
16.02 Robert Mathis, DL, Ind

Did the old homer thing here again, 2 colts drafted this time around. Of course, with one of the intermediate picks sR picked Gonzales who will probably be more fun to watch. Being a Colts fan, it can actually be pretty hard to watch their defense at times. Hopefully Manning and co. can build up enough leads that Mathis and the speedster on the opposite side will be free to rush the QB in lots of obvious passing situations. If this is the case, then they'll be forcing turnovers like they did against the Bears this past Monday night.
 
45youngroman
      ID: 3751268
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 19:29
for leggestand
16.03 Bob Sanders, DB, IND

I drafted Sanders last year and he promptly got hurt and I dropped him. But, in the three full games he played last season, he averaged 9.67 fantasy ppg, which would put him as the #2 DB (behind PacMan) on a ppg basis. I know it's a small sample size, but it also only includes only one INT, which means he is a tackle based played and should give me solid stability.

He is an injury risk (see last season), and his shoulder hurts already, but if he can give 9-10 ppg and not get hurt for a long period of time, he could easily end up a top 5 DB by year end. I am very happy with this pick.

Biggest 16th Round Steal: Jacksonville at 16.14...this is one of my favorite picks of the draft. I couldn't believe they fell so far.

At this point I have given up on "stretch's" as people are just filling needs and taking flyers. I can't see anything that bad with anyone's picks anymore.

 
46youngroman
      ID: 3751268
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 19:30
16.04 Miami Defense
I thought about defense for 2 rounds and it was finally time to pick one. it was either Miami or Jacksonville. I see them nearly equal in value but some Miami defense players have the big-play potential to add more TD over the course of the season. I hope that one of them is Jason P Taylor.

with this pick I only need 2 additional starting slots to fill: Kicker and 1 IDP. since I think that both slots can be filled very late I can now start to add the depth I will need as bye-week-replacement, and I hope I have to use them only in that case. lets start to gamble who this years Marques Colston is.
 
47Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 19:54
16.05 Takeo Spikes, LB, Phi

My team situation calls for a LB here – I have only one so far. I’m hopings Spikes has recovered from his Achilles injury in 2005. He is slated to play weak side LB for Philly this year, where he should get plenty of tackle opportunities – as long as he can stay healthy enough to stay on the field.

I almost nabbed another RB here (I have only 3), but I suspect one of the candidates from my short list will still be there next round, if that’s where I decide to go.

 
48Nerfherders
      ID: 64532914
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 20:32
for Greybear
16.06 Richard Marshall, DB, CAR

I saw Taylor and Sanders go off the board and thought it was time for me to select a player at this position. In his first season, Marshall tallied up 83 total tackles, one sack and 3 INTs, including one which was run back for a TD: good numbers for a rookie. I am assuming that he is still on the learning curve and that his numbers will increase this year. An added bonus is that Marshall also gets to play on special teams and should be getting return yards as well.

 
49Nerfherders
      ID: 64532914
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 20:38
16.07 Jeff Garcia, QB TB

It was time to pick a back up QB in this round and it came down just a handful of QB's. At first I thought about who had the best matchup for me in Hasselbeck's bye week. But then I decided to go with the QB I would be most comfortable with starting if Hasselbeck went down in week 1. Garcia was that QB. He has nice targets to throw to even if his O-line is not the greatest. He also knows the system very well and probably has the most job security of the QB's left on the board.
 
50GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 21:22
for bmd
16.08 Leonard Little, DL, STL

This is a little bit of a homer pick but from I recall he was by far the best DL guy left. I look for him to put up good sack numbers and increase his tackle numbers. He's a fast guy that could probably play LB if need be. That's wishful thinking but he's not a complete oaf like some DL guys.

 
51GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Sat, Aug 25, 2007, 21:27
16.09 Craig Davis, WR, SDG
I'm not a fan of drafting rookie WRs, but felt pretty good about this one this late.
In fact, actually tried to draft him in the 15th round, but he wasn't in the database.
So, quick email to KKB and hope he would still be there to pick up the next round.
Right now, it looks like he has a fairly good shot of being the #2 WR for the Chargers.
Even if he doesn't win that battle, he should still get a good amount of playing time.
 
52The Beezer
      ID: 437381216
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 08:10
for Bags
16.10 Anthony Thomas, RB, BUF

I hate this pick! A-Train, try A-pain in my ass. SPARE backup RB’s should be drafted after round 23. In this league I doubt he would last that long. This is my handcuff for Lynch, nothing more. I hate this pick!

 
53The Beezer
      ID: 437381216
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 08:11
for Smith32
16.11 Green Bay Packers, GNB

See also rationale at 15.04. I believe the Packers return all 11 starters from last year, which finished the year strong. Kampman is a great pass rusher, and Hawk and Barnett are solid LBs. Mostly I chose them for their schedule, which I mentioned at 15.04.

 
54The Beezer
      ID: 437381216
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 08:11
for holt
16.12 Justin Miller DB NYJ

Throwing another dart at the dartboard. Miller is a return guy. Scored 123 fantasy points last season. Slowed by a hamstring problem right now but it sounds like he should be good to go week 1. We'll see what happens. If his role on defense is further expanded then he could be huge.

 
55The Beezer
      ID: 437381216
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 08:17
16.13 Byron Leftwich

Hmm, a starter on a possible Super Bowl contender - what's the problem? Oh, yeah, he can't stay healthy, and he's never been that great a performer. Call it a mad hunch, but I think Leftwich will perform better than the 24th-ranked QB, which is where I'm taking him.
 
56I_AM_CANADIAN
      Donor
      ID: 1361448
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 10:15
16.14 Jacksonville Jaguars, DEF, JAX
I was really expecting that when I'd pick up my 2nd DEF, that I'd be having to look through the scraps left in order to get my bye week fill in. It ends up, that I got a team, that many actually consider as TOP 5 this year. When you can "stuff the run" like this mean D does, they don't let there opponents do too much in the "red zone".

Best Pick of Round 16: 16.09 Craig Davis
Stretch of Round 16: 16.02 Robert Mathis
 
57I_AM_CANADIAN
      Donor
      ID: 1361448
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 10:16
17.01 Rex Grossman, QB, CHI
Time to back up the other big point position. I'm really not expecting a whole lot out of Grossman. All I need is for the Bears to continue playing him week in week out, and him continuing to put up his mediocre #s. I really saw no seperation between him and a lot of QBs that have been taken over the last 5 rounds: Shaub, McNair, Losman, Pennington, Delhomme, Garcia, Leftwich... I got them all tiered together.

Best Pick of Round 17: 17.11 Nate Burleson
Stretch of Round 17: 17.08 Jeff Wilkins
 
58GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 11:27
for Beezer
17.02 Gerald Hayes, LB, ARI

Definitely a championship D I'm building with 2 Cleveland guys and 2 Arizona guys.

Hayes has been sitting on my board a while as I almost took him instead of Dansby several rounds back. He's another one of those guys that isn't the most consistent in the world healthwise, but when he's on can be a really strong performer. I like his chances of being a solid LB2 as long as he stays healthy.

 
59GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 11:30
for holt
17.03 Rocky Mcintosh, LB, WASH

I figured this pick would make everyone scratch their heads but I really wanted him on my team and didn't want to risk watching someone pick. you just never know.

Rocky was the 35th overall pick in the 2006 draft. Last season he spent most of the year on the bench. This year he's already watching film when the coaches show up for practice, and he's watching film when they leave.

Some news bites on him:
Rocky McIntosh was arguably the best defensive player on the field for the Washington Redskins last week. He stopped Hines Ward for a 4-yard loss on a screen, stuffed a running play for another 4-yard loss, shared a sack with Shawn Springs and was all over the field in the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

"Rocky's got it. The light switch has turned on for him,"

McIntosh practically lived at Redskins Park in the offseason

"I want to be a dominant force. I want to be a factor out there," McIntosh said. "It's only a start. That's all."

'Skins Second-Year Linebacker Rocky McIntosh Is a Beast '


anyway, there are enough interesting reports on him that I thought it was worth taking a chance. hopefully by the end of the season everyone will know who Rocky McIntosh is.

 
60GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 11:31
for Smith32
17.04 Osi Umenyiora, DL, NYG

I am actually a 'Skins fan, so the presence of so many Giants on my team is somewhat odd. Umenyiora was a premier DL 2 years ago with 15 sacks and 70 total tackles. An injury derailed his 2006 season, but I am hoping he will return to his pre-injury form this year. He is only 25 years old, so he should be in his prime.

I had actually hoped to get Suggs as my DL, but Guru snatched him up a little earlier than I wanted to take a DL.

 
61GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 11:32
for Bgas
17.05 Bobby Wade, WR, MIN

I have had Wade on my radar for a few rounds now. I wasn’t sure where to draft him. He has gone undrafted in most leagues.

Because I am posting this late I was able to see Wade’s 3rd preseason game where he caught 5 passes for 85 yds and threw for a TD. That makes me feel a little better. I hope that this wasn’t his best game of the year.

 
62GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 11:37
17.06 Angelo Crowell, LB, BUF
The word is that he is fully recovered from the break in his leg that cut last year short.
He only started 12 games, and still had 2 sck, 2 int, and 83 tackles.
I expect to see him back up at 15 or 16 games, 3 sck, 2 int, 115 tackles.
Which in my mind makes him a great value in the 17th round.
He will stay outside with the rookie going to the MLB slot.
This should also help his numbers.
 
63Nerfherders
      ID: 64532914
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 14:12
for bmd
17.07 Michael Bennett, RB, KC

Handcuff for LJ. Probably would've let him slip another round or two but with LJ's holdout I didn't want to run the risk of having 0 primary RB's.

 
64Nerfherders
      ID: 64532914
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 14:17
17.08 Jeff Wilkins, K STL

I had pegged the 17th round to get my kicker, hopefully before everyone else so I could get the guy that I wanted. Wilkins is the best and most consistent kicker in the NFL, especially at long distances. His 40+ yard kicks are numerous with a high percentage, and he plays at least half of his games in a dome. Quite frankly he was the highest scoring player left on the board.
 
66Greybear
      ID: 43710116
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 14:25
17.09 Dominic Rhodes, RB, OAK

I am feeling like a bit of a hog at this moment with one of only three teams with 5 RBs. However, for the reasons set out in rationale 14.06, I like to keep a few spares. I like Dominic Rhodes and I am not convinced that Jordan has a lot of job stability. Rhodes is talented and could very well end up with the starting gig should Jordan remain as unimpressive (IMHO) as he was last year.
 
67youngroman
      ID: 3751268
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 14:37
for Guru
17.10 Buffalo Defense

13 defenses have been taken, and three teams still have none. I took the Panthers six rounds ago, and at the time, I identified Buffalo as the best defense to pair with them, based on matchups during the season. I don’t know which round the Bills would otherwise be taken – but at least one reputable analytical site has them ranked as the best available defense at this time, so I think I’ll bite.

I still have one starting IDP slot to go, and also a bye replacement for IDP. I’m willing to wait for those, as I may end up eventually fill those holes from the ranks of the undrafted. Another backup RB would probably be prudent, but I have 4 names on my short list, so there’s no reason to jump now.

 
68youngroman
      ID: 3751268
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 14:38
17.11 Nate Burleson, WR, SEA
I haven't realized that there are only that few WR out there that are really draftable. having no backup until now I figured I'd better take at least one with the next 2 picks. my queue was: Nate Burleson, Marty Booker, Dante Hall.

the latest report out of Seattle is that Burleson has a shot at starting and is currently projected as their returner. if he starts he may not get all returns if he is the #3 he will get all returns. I don't know what situation would be better for him fantasy-wise because he was a terrific returner last season. I simply like his upside.
 
69youngroman
      ID: 3751268
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 14:39
for leggestand
17.12 Ahmad Brooks, LB, CIN

He is playing MLB for Cincy, and MLB = a good chance at a ton of tackles. He is my 5th IDP, and I only need to fill DL now, so, he could end up on the waiver wire if I see a better option as the season progresses. But, I'll take a MLB in a run happy division (AFC North) anyday.

Best 17th Round Value: Angelo Crowell at 17.06

 
70Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 599142218
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 16:42
17.13 Derrick Mason, WR, Bal

Time to start filling in holes in the roster. With Manning at the helm, I plan on plugging him in every week. Looking at week 6 matchups, I thought about getting Delhomme last time around, but wanted to shore up my defensive starters. He was no longer around, and the top available qb's did not have good matchups or were also off that week. I'll pick someone next time around. I turned instead to WR/TE where I didn't have any real bench strength. Mason looked to be the best option out there. He's coming off a disappointing season, but should still see regular action which isn't a sure thing with the other available options. That's pretty much what I'm looking for in a backup.
 
71s R
      ID: 861898
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 16:59
17.14 San Francisco 49ers, DEF
The 49ers went shopping for defense this offseason. With coach Nolan, the only question is if this team can jell in time for the season.

18.01 Jason Campbell, QB, Was
Once the last season got headed in the wrong direction, the Redskins turned over the offensive controls to Campbell. He responded with solid stats and should only be better in 2007.


 
72Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 599142218
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 17:25
18.02 NY Giants Defense

The other defense I had debated on back at the 13th pick (when I picked the Eagles) was the Dolphins and they weren't around any more. The Giants may have dropped because of a certain defensive lineman's absence, but I just read that he is going to come back.
 
73youngroman
      ID: 3751268
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 18:15
for leggestand
18.03 Dante' Hall, WR, STL

I needed a 5th WR as I have two Dolphins in my WR corps, so, on that bye week, I will need to find someone anyhow. Dante Hall will return punts and possibly kicks for the Rams. He will also enter the season as the 4th WR (and 6th option behind McMichael and Jackson) on the Rams. But, I don't expect the trio of Bruce, Bennett, and Holt to make it through much of the season without injury and thus moving Hall up to the the 3rd WR. 6-8 ppg would be nice from Hall.

Best 18th Round Value: Barrett Ruud at 18.06

 
74youngroman
      ID: 3751268
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 18:17
18.04 Marty Booker, WR, MIA
the currently available IDPs are a dime a dozen, so I looked at upgrading my offense. no RB presented itself yet (some seem to be good sleepers this year), so it was WR again. with seeing not many starting wideouts left, and not many #3 with return duties, Booker was an easy choice. I can only hope that Trent Green stays at his passing game and discovers Booker as a target to throw the ball to more often. Booker was the last WR I considered drafting at this point (Dante' Hall was the 2nd one, but he was gone 1 pick ago).

QB, RB, WR and TE are empty, IDP and K are interchangeable from week to week, there is only D where I still see a difference, so this may be my choice for my 19th pick. from now on its sleeper time.
 
75Nerfherders
      ID: 64532914
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 20:39
for Guru
18.05 Michael Pittman, RB, TB

Just adding some depth at RB. Will ride my bench except for byes or injuries, unless the situation at TB changes.

Last year, I wanted him as a handcuff to Cadillac, but youngroman scooped him up before I got around to it. Figured I’d do the same thing to Beezer this year.

 
76Nerfherders
      ID: 64532914
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 20:40
for Greybear
18.06 Barrett Ruud, LB, TBB

I decided to pick another LB (I'm plannning on starting 4 of them every week) while there was still what I thought to be quality fantasy players left on the board. I picked Ruud as he fit well within my roster in respect of bye weeks. He is taking over the MLB position, which is the position that I like to draft the most as players seem to get more tackle opportunities at this position. Another plus is that I expect TBB's defence to be on the field a lot, which should get Ruud an increased chance of racking up the points fantasy-wise.

 
77Nerfherders
      ID: 64532914
      Sun, Aug 26, 2007, 20:44
18.07 Asante Samuel, DB NE

I was actually looking to pick up a LB here for my second IDP position but I also looked at DB and saw Samuel still available. He is a great cover corner and averaged almost 8 points per game last year. He's had some contract issues in the preseason but I expect him to be on the field for game 1 of the season. I consider him a great value at this point in the draft.
 
78I_AM_CANADIAN
      Donor
      ID: 1361448
      Mon, Aug 27, 2007, 05:33
for bmd
18.08 TJ Duckett, RB, DET

I had made a queue with Duckett and Bennett with 2 picks to go before I picked. Unfortunately for me everybody on the other side of the draft picked super fast and I didn't get a chance to reevaluate this pick. Duckett is behind Jones and Bell on the depth chart but he could be the goal line go to guy. Also, neither Bell or Jones has been to sturdy this preseason.

 
79I_AM_CANADIAN
      Donor
      ID: 1361448
      Mon, Aug 27, 2007, 05:33
for GoatLocker
18.09 Oakland Raiders, Def, OAK
Last year this defense was Third in Total Defense and was the best in the NFL against the pass.
They were lacking in sacks and takeaways, but did have a few big plays.
I'm really looking for a nice solid season from them, and hopefully can go with my second defense when they have really unfavorable matchups.
I've tended to find that waiting this late on a defense really doesn't hurt me as long as I can find somebody that I expect to outperform where I have them ranked.
 
80I_AM_CANADIAN
      Donor
      ID: 1361448
      Mon, Aug 27, 2007, 05:33
for Bags
18.10 Jacoby Jones,WR,HOU

I thought about drafting him in the 20’s but then he has to have a big game against the Cowboys. So I am now worried that the cat is out of the bag.

He’s pushing Kevin Walter for the #2 job, and it could only be a matter of time until he passes him and steps into the starting lineup

 
81I_AM_CANADIAN
      Donor
      ID: 1361448
      Mon, Aug 27, 2007, 05:34
for Smith32
18.11 Jon Beason, LB, CAR

Beason is a rookie from the U who looks like he has secured a starting spot on the weak side for the Panthers. Since the Panthers may soon start tracking "Dan Morgan's concussions TO GO" on the scoreboard, I think there is a chance Beason could see time in the middle, which would help his tackle numbers. Another late-round LB gamble with decent upside.

 
82I_AM_CANADIAN
      Donor
      ID: 1361448
      Mon, Aug 27, 2007, 05:34
for holt
18.12 Trent Green QB MIA

I was going to take Jacoby Jones here. Unfortunately Bags grabbed him 18.10 while the Houston/Dallas game was still in progress.

Figured I may as well get some QB insurance. Green was the only available QB who I could envision putting up some big games.

That hit that knocked him out last year was nasty. I won't be surprised if he never returns to form. He does have some good targets in Miami though (better than he had in KC). And one thing about Green is that he's a great passer. Very accurate arm, and if he discovers the "Ginn runs deep and I throw as far as I can" play then it could be some good times.

 
83I_AM_CANADIAN
      Donor
      ID: 1361448
      Mon, Aug 27, 2007, 05:34
for the Beezer
18.13 Will Smith, DL, NO

This seemed like a no-brainer pick since he's probably the most consistent Hollywood star out there along with Will Ferrell. His new movie will probably open in the $40-$50 million range like Hitch and has a decent shot of winning at least two weekends...what, this isn't the ReelGuru Independent Film Competition?

Um, I wanted DL, he's good and tackles people? OK, I sincerely have Smith in my top 5 at DL and wanted to go ahead and round out my IDPs. While they aren't spectacular, they should be a solid group with breakout potential.

 
84I_AM_CANADIAN
      Donor
      ID: 1361448
      Mon, Aug 27, 2007, 05:37
18.14 Chad Greenway, LB, MIN
Greenways rookie campaign was destroyed by injury. Now, all reports appear to be that he healthy and ready to take a major role in the defence. Greenway moves into the WLB of Mini's Cover 2. If he can remain healthy, then he has a good chance of him outpointing his fellow teamate who was pick 5 rounds previous in our draft.

Best Pick of Round 18: 18.10 Jacoby Jones
Stretch of Round 18: 18.08 TJ Duckett