Almost every resource I looked at had Peterson as the clear #1 pick this year, and my independent investigation did little to combat that perception. His track record at RB is rivaled by only Arian Foster, but the Texan is dealing with some meaningful injury concerns at the moment. I’m expecting this year to look a lot more like 2010-11 than 2012, but upside certainly exists.

In the end, hard to pass up Martin or AP.

Instead, I opted to take a guy who is probably one of the safest picks (knock on wood) on the board. He’s been durable and steady over the past several years, and although I could have probably gotten him a few picks later, I wasn’t picking a few picks later. I know that some feel it is critical t get some quality RBs locked up early, but frankly, I’ve had success in this format without solid RBs, so I’m not particularly concerned about waiting until at least pick #25 to get one.

McCoy always disappoints, but I've always blamed that on Andy Reid. This choice was between McCoy and Jamaal Charles. I went to an Eagles Panthers championship game a few years ago. McNabb was throwing well and Pinkston et al were dropping passes left and right. Every time Duece Staley got the ball he'd break out for 9 yrds or so. Yet Reid just kept going pass after pass after incomplete pass. Staley ended up with like 7 carries on the day. Now that Reid is in KC, his style of scripted, unbending coaching will have its ups and downs there. I want no part of that.

According the health status of Foster, Charles remained my first pick. He can product many fantasy points also in just 1 or 2 plays.

Morris is the workhorse of the WASH offense and I hope that this year is as good as last.

Per the list above, my choice was between TRich, Rice, and Foster. If healthy, I don't think Foster outscores either of the other 2 by a wide margin, so he doesn't justify the risk at this pick in a 14-team league. It was essentially a coin flip between Rice and TRich, but since they both put up similar numbers last year and I think the Browns will be better than last year and the Ravens will be worse, I went with TRich. I also think TRich is less likely to share carries.

pre draft I dreamed of getting Calvin Johnson. Would not have thought that he goes as #4. put he has the potential to score more TDs than last year while getting the same yardage so he may be worth it.

Funny, last year I had the 1.01 and chose Rice over Foster. This year it looked like I may have been taking Foster if Rice went right in front of me, but I ended up with Rice again. Extremely happy with this pick as Rice can finish as" a top 5 RB and is unlikely to underperform his 1.11 selection. "

"Oh great I have buyers remorse and I should have gotten a RB. I never draft QB first, ever."

Was relieved that Forte was available here. I thought that at number 13 I might be forced into drafting a WR. I think Forte is in a tier above S-Jax, CJ2K, etc.

I hope that none of these reasons stated above apply to Jones-Drew. yes he was injured last season but it looks like he is completely over it. the depth at RB in Jacksonville was better in the past so it is expected that he gets a heavy workload. More carries is usually better than less carries. if he gets around 300 that result in 1300 yards and 8 TD's I would be happy with that. And don't forget that he also contributes in the passing game. A busy season is ahead of him. hopefully he is not busy waiting for MRI's.

If I hadn't picked Sproles, I may have picked Jimmy Graham. I was surprised Graham wasn't drafted sooner.

Gore was very steady last year, only putting up sub-double-digit numbers in only 4 games. The flip side is that he also rarely puts up a monster game. But if he can stay healthy (and he has been pretty sturdy the last few years), he should get his share of points again this year.

I didn't really consider anyone else here. I have my 2 RBs, was too early for Gronk, and Fitz was the last of the 2nd tier WR on my sheet, which included Marshall, Cobb, Julio Jones, and Andre Johnson.

Last year Roddy White was phenomenal,200more yards than Jones, but a few less TD's. He finished as a top 10WR and is projected to finish ahead of some WR already taken. 1200 yd, 8TD for Roddy this year seems reasonable and is a nice anchor for my WR corps.

I think he plays the Welker role better than Welker did last year as he may be a little faster. I think 1300 and double digit TDs are possible. The ceiling is pretty high on this pick I feel and at WR14 I think this is a good way to go.

When I started researching this pick I also investigated Amendola, but when I wanted to put him as #2 into my queue he was already drafted and I was up. there were not other WRs I looked into at this point. Available QB's, TE's or IDP's are not worth the early pick compared to the depth at their position and I already have 2 RB's. Will be interesting to see in which direction I go with my next pick.

I considered Antonio Brown here, thinking Brown's punt return yardage gave him more upside than Bowe, but I thought Bowe's floor was higher. I liked Pierre Garcon, but thought it was too early for him and he might make it back (he didn't).

I probably would have waited until after the turn had I been able to wait to see how things had transpired earlier in round 4, but 9-holes of golf were beckoning. Perhaps that was good "Luck"?

I almost went with Witten, but talked myself out of it as I was drafting a Witten rationale and just couldn’t convince myself.

I also considered DeSean Jackson and Patrick Peterson, but figured (incorrectly) that one of them would make it back to me.

1 pick before I was due, I filled my queue with 2 TE's: Jason Witten and Vernon Davis. I would be happy with any of them. Turned out this morning that Witten joined my team. I just can hope that his QB who was taken the pick before him is still able to throw the ball to him. I just expect similar production as the last few years: 1000yds and around 6 TD's. hopefully more TD's.

so I had to take a 3rd RB or a 3rd WR. It was a relatively easy decision because all available starting RB's are not expected to start for too long until they get benched or replaced with the currently injured guy. I also don't like picking bench players this early. on the WR side James Jones shined enough to get my attentation. He shines even more because of his QB and the status of the receiving partners in Green Bay. Jennings is gone, Cobb was limited in pre-season and Nelson is out as well. This should get him lots of yards early on. and on top of that he is expected to reach double digit TD's again this year.

And then after looking him up and missing some news at the bottom of 2 pages I see an "S" next to his name. Now, I'm a superhero nerd, but my immediate thought was NOT that this guy was Superman. He was one of the highest scoring LB's last season. And this year it looks like he's going to miss 1/4 of the season w/ a suspension for substance abuse (appeal pending). Foot meet teeth. 75% of a season - not what you want out of a round 6 pick.

I thought about Chris Ivory, but I just don’t want to get involved in the continuing debacle that is the NY Jets.

I thought about Jacoby Jones here, who had almost 100 points last year just in kick & punt returns. But the preseason has not been kind to him offensively, and it’s not clear he’ll have an uptick in production vs. last year. Miles Austin was also on the radar. But Williams quietly outpointed both of them in PPG last season.

Looking at round 6 I wanted a RB, but only had 8 picks until my next pick. Looking over the roster every team picking before it came back to me had 2 RB's already "and this early, there are still holes everybody needs to fill. I had 3 RB I was eyeing. It seemed unlikely any of them would be taken - phew, safe to fill a different hole here and grab a RB early R7. Out of the 8 picks - 6 were running backs, including all 3 I was eyeing. Twilson and promize taking 2 each really surprised me but Mendenhall was my main target for R7.

I did consider a LB here, but figured I'd get one in the next round because there were 6-8 of them that I thought were very similar in expected production.

since my other starting offense slots are filled I turned to the other side of the ball. Bobby Wagner seems to be the best LB available at this point. there were some other LB's in my queue as well, that may get considered with my next pick.

Smith has averaged nearly 17 sacks a season in his career. He also had 50 solo tackles, 3 FFs and an INT last year. "He's a beast, along with his San Fran LB corps, he'll continue to have huge seasons. For the 7th LB off the board I don't think you can beat his production."

Speaking of more how can you ask for more when you average 107 tackles over the last 2 seasons. Throw in 2 sacks, 6 PDs, 2 FFs and you've got yourself a boat load of points. He's also on a team with an offense that will be on and off the field quickly (Thanks to Andy Reid's lack of Time of Possession offenses), and a defense that will probably be playing from behind a lot (lots of runs, lots of tackle opportunities). That's a reciepe for lots of IDP fantasy points!

David is in his 2nd year and if he improves from last year he will be outstanding for my team.

Jackson averaged 9 pts a game in 2012, and over 11 in 2011. If he can split the difference, I think 10 pts a game is pretty good for round 8.

So, time to take the road less traveled. OIsen isn’t a sexy pick, but I feel like he’s a safe pick. Excluding all tight ends who are not currently injured or in jail, he ranked #5 last season in PPG. And he hasn’t missed a game in the last 5 years.

Allen was the dominant DL in this format until last year, when J.J. Watt blew away the field while Allen suffered through a torn labrum in his left shoulder. With the shoulder surgically repaired, I’m hoping for something approaching his 2011 stats, when he averaged 11.6 PPG. That would be quite an uptick, however.

Sorry, youngroman.

speaking of IDP's. LB's are still the better value here, but I don't want to get stuck with my 3 starters this early. there is always some unexpected value left later. So I looked at DL and DB and decided that DB is the better value for this pick. The top tackler there is Morgan Burnett and this is plain simple why he is on my team. he was no turnover machine the last 3 years and he still put up the most points there so there is room for improvement from last years numbers. I don't count on that but will take that bonus anytime.

That said, there's way too much value in Ballard to continue to let him sit. I know the Colts signed Bradshaw in the offseason and they have *UNDRAFTED FORMER FIRST ROUND BUST* still on the roster, but I think Ballard sees the lionshare of the carries. Pep Hamilton has preached a "Power Running" game all offseason and Ballard fits that role better than Bradshaw. And he's a back up RB for my team, so maybe one week I'll have some trepidation watching my boys in the horseshoe.

Bradford has had a nice preseason, and seems to have an upgraded offensive cast this year. But I really hope I can let him hold a clipboard every week but one.

with this pick I have my offense basically sealed up. I will try to pick some defenders first until I turn to RB/WR again. unless I see value I can't pass or the draft situation forces it.

I thought about a 2nd DB but saw nobody interesting for this draft value. so it was either RB or WR. I have a few sleepers at WR so I looked at which RB has good potential to get a significant number of snaps or could even be the starter when my top 2 RB's are on bye. Bilal Powell fits the bill. Ivory was injured in the pre-season and Powell may take advantage of that. Ivory is not proven either because he had not many touches the last 2 years. he had less touches in the last 2 years than Powell had last year. In the end nobody knows how much playing time Powell will receive.

If Gore goes down, I’d think that Hunter would be more valuable than any of the other RBs currently on the board. Besides, those who have played with me before know that I’m an active handcuffer of RBs.

I have no idea how the Vikings will use him. Maybe just to play video games in the clubhouse (I read he has "video game talent"). But if he is draft-worthy in leagues that don't give return points, then he certainly is draft-worthy in ours. Perfect WR5 material.

Chandler Jones might be a steady force for my team. Playing in New England and being the core of their defensive line should amount in a lot of plays. hopefully he is making the most of them. if he plays as good as last season it would be a great start.

It's this, or Sean Weatherspoon. Which sounds like more fun to have on your roster?

Perhaps the second coming of Terrence McGee? (Yes, I know McGee is undrafted. He’s also a free agent, and probably retired.)

Michael Johnson should fit that bill. he is able to get double digit sacks. he is in a contract year and may prove all the teams out there, especially the Bengals, that he is worth more than he is currently earning. I hope this keeps him motivated to even play better than last year.

Manning has had 2 solid seasons since moving to Houston 2 years ago. He should have little competition in the secondary for tackles since he's got a rookie 2nd round pick at FS and he's backed up by an injured undrafted FA. Should be about 70 tackles, 5-6 PDs, 2-3 INTs, and possibly a sack. That'll be good for a DB2.

Greg Olsen is my top TE, and his bye week is in week #4. Maybe Heath will be ready by then. I’ve also only got three WRs at this point, and it’s not inconceivable that Miller could flex into the WR/TE slot at some time. Worth a shot in round 16.

Seriously, he gets a lot of targets, which helps prop up his stat counts. It's a curious but common feature of cornerbacks - the "shutdown" corners also have "shutdown stats." From RotoWire's 2012 outlook: He's just bad enough in coverage to leave throwing lanes open for opposing quarterbacks, but he's just good enough to pick off a few of those and knock down double-digit quantities of the passes he doesn't intercept.

WR gets thinner too. there are some WR2 on their team that have not fanatasy value and there are some WR4 on their team that have. McCluster seems to be a WR3 with the addition of being the primary returner. This should get him a nice boost in case he does not see enough targets as a receiver.

note: Dwyer was surprisingly released a few hours after I picked Redman, so this pick looks even better when it comes to 1a vs. 1b, but it may also mean that Bell may be back earlier.

Mebane plays in a defense that will put pressure on the QB. The DB will cover the receivers and so the DL have this great chance to sack the QB. As a DT he can stuff the run as well.

shortly after I made this pick the Browns added 2 young running backs. it needs to be seen who will see the most opportunities. I doubt that it will be Ogbonnaya but it was worth the gamble that I will probably take into week 1 to exchange him into a hot waiver pickup.

I choose to get Crosby simply because the Packers will be often near the opposing endzone. it then does not matter much if the result is a FG or a PAT. I may hope for more FG's but will take 6 PAT's with no FG too.

I really wanted to give due diligence to Nick Moody SF LB who made their team and will be seen mostly on special teams. I taught him in 8th grade Science way back when. Bright kid, but stubborn. Hope he sticks.