Forum: foot
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Subject: RIFC 2016: Rationale Collection Thread


  Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Sun, Aug 28, 2016, 15:41

We'll use the same process for collecting rationales as last year.

You have a choice. You may either post your rationale in the comment area next to the associated pick on the MFL draft page,

- or -

you may post each rationale in this thread. Anything posted here will "trump" anything posted on MFL.

Regardless, each rationale is due no later than two rounds in arrears. I understand that, especially when queues are used, staying within two rounds will be difficult. However, please try to stay relatively current.

I will set up a master thread for all Rationales that will be organized in the proper draft sequence. So don't worry about the sequence here.
 
1Doug
      ID: 326332712
      Sun, Aug 28, 2016, 16:24
1.05 - When selecting my slot, I was looking at 5, 9, or 13.

#13 was attractive to maximize my pick in rounds 2-3-4, but wasn't sure I liked the options late in round 1... I would probably be drafting an RB with question marks like Jamaal Charles (who obviously has upside, but also lots of risk), or forced to go another direction and try to find RBs I liked in those other rounds.

I also considered that at pick #9 as I might be able to nab Le'Veon Bell... but wasn't sure he'd make it. I felt that Gurley, Johnson, Peterson, Elliot were RBs I'd be much happier with starting out, and didn't feel the dropoff in the next few rounds was too bad to get one of those guys.

So I decided to pick #5, figuring that Antonio Brown was highly likely a top-4 pick, and I could still get one of my top RBs... most likely winding up with Peterson, as I expected Gurley and Johnson (and maybe Elliot) would be gone already. Peterson was a solid choice because he's reliable, but in the end I decided I'd like Johnson even better and very happy he was available at #5.

In retrospect, I probably would have been just as happy at #9 with Elliot or Bell... but glad I didn't take the #13 slot... I wanted a RB I could feel confident in for my first round pick. This year there just seems more uncertainty than usual at the RB slot after the top tier... and I feel like a lot of the 2nd/3rd tier WRs have more upside than usual so I'm sure I'll find someone.
 
2TD
      Leader
      ID: 036331011
      Sun, Aug 28, 2016, 19:32
1.13 Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE
Draft Position #13 - I think the "Banzai" format with 3rd round reversal gives an advantage to teams picking late in the 1st round. #13 was the highest numbered position available when I selected.

My plan was to take the best player available with my first pick. Gronkowski is clearly the top fantasy TE and can be relied on to average over 12 fantasy points per game when healthy. No other TE comes close to this production, so the difference between Gronkowski and any other TE makes him worth the first round selection.
 
3TD
      Leader
      ID: 036331011
      Sun, Aug 28, 2016, 19:42
2.02 Lacy, Eddie GBP RB
I think both Lacy and McCoy will have strong fantasy seasons and are at the end of the top tier of top RBs. I like Lacy a little better because I feel he is more durable. I thought there was a drop off in WR after Allen Robinson. There were high expectations for Lacy last season, but he came into camp out of shape and it showed in his production. He is in great shape this season and I expect him to play much better. It is also a contract year which is additional incentive for him to play well.
 
4twolves
      ID: 57491413
      Sun, Aug 28, 2016, 20:29
Pick 1.08
The top 4 WR, I considered went off the board and my top 3 RB. Decided I liked RB here better than remaining WRs. Debated on Miller, Eliot, and L Bell and decided on Miller with good upside despite new team. Eliot is a rookie and bigger risk for #1 pick. I liked Bell despite 3 game suspension but hard to be without RB1 for 3 weeks.
 
5Promize
      ID: 57662211
      Mon, Aug 29, 2016, 08:08
1.14 Jamaal Charles RB
Just was a tough pick to make, the good news is, I had back to back picks so really the order didn't make a difference of who was plugged in. I kept seeing Gronk drop and drop and thought hmm, I got this... But last might snag. Jamaal is a gamble, I wanted to get at least 1 Tier 1 RB... Lets hope for a healthy year.

2.01 Allen Robinson WR
Again, a struggle on who to take. Do I do the RB/RB, or the WR/WR or even nab Cam. I should of known better that Cam wouldn't be available come 3.01, I'm happy with the pick though. Lets light up some offensive numbers again.
 
6Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Mon, Aug 29, 2016, 09:44
1.10 Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL

I was expecting Elliott to be gone at this point, so had never considered him in my options. AJ Green was the guy I was targeting but missed out by one spot. I was between Elliott and Allen Robinson, and figured I'd lock up a sure fire three down back, oozing with upside. The Romo injury is concerning, given how poor Dallas has looked in the past when rolling with backup QB's, however McFadden was plenty useful down the stretch last year with Matt Cassel, Brandon Weeden, and Kellen Moore, and Dak Prescott has shown some promise in the preseason. Perhaps the threat of Prescott running a bit will even open things up for Zeke. This pick has plenty of bust potential, but also tons of upside.
 
7Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Mon, Aug 29, 2016, 09:46
Slot selection...

I had plenty of options and could haven picked in any of the 3 "thirds" of the draft. I've had success before picking towards the back half, but the chance of taking Antonio Brown #1 overall was enticing. I ended up choosing 10, giving myself a Top 10 player, without sacrificing my slot in rounds 2-4 too heavily.
 
8twolves
      Dude
      ID: 811161317
      Mon, Aug 29, 2016, 13:55
2.07 Devonta Freeman
With a top 10 running back still on the board along with Ingram who was my top running back last year it was hard to pass on RB. He does have a injury history and will be hard pressed to match last years numbers but too good to pass over. I was originally leaning to taking a wide receiver as this seems the year of receivers.
 
9SwinganaMiss
      ID: 537471117
      Mon, Aug 29, 2016, 17:04
11th slot
I have been in the beginning of drafts the last few seasons, with decent success. But, I wanted to be at the back this year. I did a quick scan, and wasn't thrilled with 13, which was available. 11 seemed to suit me better, as I preferred to take a RB or Gronk, originally thinking Miller might be available. His ADP improved between selection and draft day, so that was not an option.

1.11 LeVeon Bell, RB PIT
I was choosing between two guys w/ questionable QBs to start the season, and a RB who would miss 3 games himself. Not exactly ideal conditions. But, I opted to go with Bell, as he's a cut above. I will have to make-shift something for those first 3 weeks and hope Bell is fresh and healthy for the remainder of the season.
 
10Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Mon, Aug 29, 2016, 18:06
2.05 Mike Evans, WR, TB

Two rounds in a row my top target gets taken one spot ahead of me (Keenan Allen). After locking up Elliott in round 1, I wanted to make sure I had a top WR. Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, and Brandin Cooks were my top three choices and settled on Evans. The other receiving options on Tampa are getting less attractive, and assuming Jameis keeps building on a strong rookie season, Evans should be a top producer.
 
11mmikulka
      ID: 257492917
      Mon, Aug 29, 2016, 18:54
4th slot

Not many choices left for me: 4th, 3rd, or 1st. I wasn't all-in on Antonio Brown, I usually value the early 2nd/3rd/4th over the early 1st rounder, and I wanted to avoid being next to Guru (and likely twilson). All those added up to 4th.


1.04 Julio Jones, WR ATL

I seem to draft Julio Jones quite frequently in all formats, and it has worked out great so far. This is the highest price I've had to pay, so we'll see how that goes.

Despite my preference to avoid RBs early, I had decided I would be happy with Gurley if it went WR/WR/WR. Then he got scooped up, leaving Julio available.

Barring injury, I'm sure I'll be content with this pick, though I would have much rather been toward the back end of the first round.


2.11 JJ Watt, DE HOU

I wasn't happy with any of my offense options here. At WR, I was primarily considering Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, though I also looked at Jarvis Landry to some degree. I was scared off by the injury potential for Marshall/Jeffery, and I felt like Landry has too many potential ways to drop off from last year (mainly the risks associated with gaining points through return duties, and the possible loss of targets to other players) and little room to improve other than TDs.

My top remaining RBs were pretty far down the ADP list, and I had no interest in taking a QB or non-Gronk TE this early.

I hadn't really come close to drafting Watt before, but the reduced price (due to injury-related risk, of course) combined with my lack of enthusiasm for the QB/RB/WR/TE options was enough for me to give it a try.
 
12SwinganaMiss
      ID: 537471117
      Mon, Aug 29, 2016, 19:56
2.04 Keenan Allen, WR SDG
There were a lot of WR available that could break out big this season. Other than Allen, I considered another RB (Ingram) or one of those other WR. I gave Marshall the longest look. Having him last year was great. But, I don't expect quite that much from him this year. I went with Allen, who will get a lot of looks in SDG if he can stay healthy. He was on pace for big things last year, so let's hope he comes back right where he left off before injury.
 
13Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 21723188
      Mon, Aug 29, 2016, 20:41
1.03 Odell Beckham, WR, NYG
Apparently, the third pick was the least attractive in this draft - at least it defaulted to me when I pulled a disappearing act during the draft slot selection process. As the draft approached, I at least had the luxury of only needing to rank my top 3 candidates to prepare for this selection. I actually had them in the same order the first 4 picks went - in the end going with Beckham over Jones because of his youth and a more consistent Qb.

2.12 Mark Ingram, RB, NO
I had no real strategy going into this pick - the draft actually progressed very quickly since the last time I had checked in, so after taking stock of what was available, it came down to Ingram or two WR (Nelson, Hilton). With Beckham already on my roster, I felt Ingram at this point was the smarter pick. This allowed me to get a solid #1 RB instead of having to rely on leftovers or RBBC's. Nelson would have been intriguing, but there is still concern with his limited action in the preseason.

3.12 Thomas Rawls, RB, Sea
Well, the internal debate I had going into this pick was resolved… I had been wavering between WR/RB both for Seattle - Lockett or Rawls. I was probably leaning towards Lockett, but Doug addressed this by snatching him two picks prior to mine. The other pick of Forte before mine reinforced my thought of going RB here. Rawls has some risk - it is not definite that he has the job locked down, but he showed last year he is capable of putting up solid numbers when given the reins.
 
15Doug
      ID: 326332712
      Mon, Aug 29, 2016, 21:41
2.10 - Cam Newton, QB, CAR
Lots of ways to go here... considered Ingram to lock down my 2 RB spots, but felt like the opportunity to take Cam was too good to pass up... if he puts together a dominant season like last year, he'll definitely be worth the pick. If Freeman or Lacy had fallen, I'd have taken the RB. Seemed the draft went a little WR-happy, so didn't have an option that jumped out as a better value. So taking Cam here wasn't my pre-draft "plan" or anything... but just kind of the way things fell, it just seemed he was the best option available to me. Usually I tend to wait until late on the QB spot, but it was fun to mix things up this year.
 
16Doug
      ID: 326332712
      Tue, Aug 30, 2016, 00:52
3.10 - Tyler Lockett, WR SEA
A straight up playmaker, very exciting to watch, with the ability to put up points on both offense and special teams. Of all the remaining WRs, he seemed by far to have the most upside (if Baldwin or Kearse go down his reps on offense likely increase), and the return yards will hopefully help make this a savvy 3rd round pick. Not normally who you'd think of as a fantasy WR1, but honestly has the potential to be top-10 in our format if he gets enough touches. I'm not expecting quite that level of production, but again, good value for this spot and better upside than the alternative options.
 
17Doug
      ID: 326332712
      Tue, Aug 30, 2016, 01:09
4.10 - Melvin Gordon, RB, SD
Had a rough rookie year, but has been looking really sharp this preseason... has the potential to be a breakout candidate and live up to his initial rookie expectations and well outperform this draft slot.

That's definitely a theme for my picks in this draft it seems, I may be taking some risks, but focusing on guys who I think have significant upside potential even if it means I may have some guys who wind up underperforming. Hopefully it pays off!

Briefly considered Kelce, but felt like there were other TEs who will likely provide adequate performance, but who can be had much later... and I don't feel like Kelce has tremendous upside... not going to put up a Gronk-like year. He'll just be "reliably above-average". Which isn't a bad thing, but I wanted to try and go big. Also, after taking a QB early, I'm probably more inclined to go TE late so that I don't fall too far behind on RB/WR slots (but hey, you never know... watch me contradict myself in a round or two, lol).

Also looked at a few WRs, but next round we finally get to go back to snaking, and there several WRs I liked roughly the same, so figured I'd take the RB that I really wanted now, and could wait and grab a WR next round... also figured the 3 or the 4 teams making the turn here only had 1 RB on roster thus far so better to take RB first. As it turned out, the WR I would have taken here (Michael Floyd) was indeed still available 9 picks later.
 
18s R
      ID: 4734262
      Tue, Aug 30, 2016, 06:24
1.09 A. J. Green, WR, Cin

My target, Miller gone at #8.
But i ranked Green higher.
With new receivers opposite him (and none of these targets bring serious talent)the chance that he’ll finish the year with the most receptions out of any receivers in football is very possible.

 
19s R
      ID: 4734262
      Tue, Aug 30, 2016, 06:26
2.06 Doug Martin, RB, TB

Wanted a running back.
Last year I drafted Freeman in the AAA and he was a big factor in my team's success. Now I picked the less upside but more consistency, I hope.
 
20s R
      ID: 4734262
      Tue, Aug 30, 2016, 06:58
3.06 Latavius Murray, RB, Oak

The Raiders made a significant upgrade at offensive line and will run the ball more this season.
With the offense continuing to improve, Murray should see more TD opportunities.
 
21Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Tue, Aug 30, 2016, 07:05
3.05 Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN

Wanted Alshon Jeffrey here, but for the third round in a row he was sniped right in front of me. Looking at my available options, Thomas looked like the safest bet to be a WR2, with WR1 upside. Thomas had a solid year in 2015 playing with a weak armed Peyton Manning. Whoever starts for Denver this year will no doubt have more arm strength and I expect to see his numbers creep up a bit. Thought about CJ Anderson and Tyler Lockett here, but felt that Thomas had the highest floor of the players available.
 
22Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Tue, Aug 30, 2016, 12:27
4.05 Luke Kuechly, LB, CAR

FOUR FOR FOUR... really wanted Carlos Hyde here, but he was sniped one spot ahead of me... this is going to be a long draft. I didn't really have a plan B, but had a list of a few WR, RB's, and QB's I was all interested in. Not seeing a ton of separation in each group, I went for Keuchly. Every year I try to anchor my IDP's with at least one of the top tier LB's, who seem to go a bit earlier every passing year. There were three LB's entrenched in the top tier, and the chance to guarantee that I get one of them was attractive. In retrospect, it may have been one round too early, as Keuchly was still the only LB taken by my next pick in the 5th round, but better too early than too late (I think...)
 
23twolves
      Dude
      ID: 811161317
      Tue, Aug 30, 2016, 13:49
3.07 Randall Cobb
After 2 RBs was hoping one of the high tier WRs taken earlier in third round would have fallen to me. Took Cobb who seemed the best of the next cut. I hope he can get back to level he enjoyed when Nelson was healthy.

4.07 Jordan Reed TE
Tight end has always been an interesting pick and I have never taken a tight end this high. Since they can serve as receiver makes a flexible pick. He was high on then current ADP list and pointwise probably as good as any potential WR left.
 
24TD
      Leader
      ID: 036331011
      Tue, Aug 30, 2016, 15:23
3.02 Nelson, Jordy GBP WR
After choosing a TE and RB, I was looking for a WR with this pick. Nelson missed the entire 2015 season with a torn ACL. Even though he has not played this preseason, he is still projected to return in week 1. He was one of the top fantasy receivers prior to his injury and Rodgers favorite target. There is risk that he won't put up big numbers after his injury, but I feel he has a greater upside than any of the other WRs available.
 
25TD
      Leader
      ID: 036331011
      Tue, Aug 30, 2016, 15:30
4.02 Maclin, Jeremy KCC WR
With the WR I chose in round 3, Jordy Nelson, returning from an injury, I wanted another WR. Maclin posted good stats in his first season working with Alex Smith. I expect a slightly better season this year.
 
26TD
      Leader
      ID: 036331011
      Tue, Aug 30, 2016, 15:36
5.13 Brady, Tom NEP QB
I wanted to get a QB with this pick if a top one was still available. Had my sights on Brees or Roethlisberger, but they both went earlier in the round. After his suspension, I expect Brady to perform at a high level. Even though he is 39, he has kept his body in great shape and there have been no signs of a decline in his performance.
 
27twilson
      ID: 37573115
      Tue, Aug 30, 2016, 17:54
0.14 Draft Slot #1

I drew the short end of the straw and ended up with last slot pick. Fortunately for me, another owner failed to select, so I had my choice of first or third. Like most others, my top preference would’ve been toward the back end of the round, but first pick was among my next favorite. I see one player clearly above the rest, so I’ll bank that advantage and hope it doesn’t cost me too much later on. I didn’t relish the thought of being sandwiched by Guru, but mmikulka wouldn’t have been that much better.

1.01 Antonio Brown, WR, PIT

There’s less consensus than usual about the ordering of the top players this year, but Antonio Brown seems like the choice of the plurality. Throw in a couple hundred punt return yards and an extra touchdown, though, and all of a sudden it’s a no brainer. Had I gone with slot #3, I probably would’ve ended up going with David Johnson, unless Ezekiel Elliott proved too alluring. An RB would’ve been better for draft planning purposes, but there’s no way I could turn down the ultraelite performance and reliability of Brown.

2.14 Brandon Marshall, WR, NYJ

I very much want to go with a running back here. Ingram or Doug Martin would’ve been easy picks, but they were taken at 26 and 20, respectively. CJ Anderson is my top back. I think Anderson is talented and the best back on the roster. His stretch run in 2014 drove me to an RIFC championship. However, the Peyton-less Broncos offense raises concerns and Denver’s braintrust has given little reason to believe they are fully committed.

The focus on RBs during round 2 has left a wealth of receiving talent on the board. Brandon Marshall was the WR#3 last year, and the Jets offense is largely unchanged, Matt Forte being the only meaningful addition. He’s dealing with a seemingly minor hip injury, but no one seems very concerned. Alshon Jeffery and Sammy Watkins have been outstanding when healthy, but they’ve been prone to recurring soft-tissue injuries. Jordy Nelson was Mr. Reliable until his ACL tear in preseason last year. He’s not on the field yet. TY Hilton suffered without a decent QB, but Luck is now back in action. Tyler Lockett was a WR1 last year thanks to his excellent return skills, and there is potential for his offensive role to grow. An easy case can be made for any of these players to finish top 5 at their position.

As much as a RB would’ve been preferred, Anderson paled in the face of these lights. I chose the target monster Marshall to hopefully approach his 2015 value.
 
28twolves
      ID: 57491413
      Tue, Aug 30, 2016, 18:24
5.08 Drew Brees QB
Decided after G money took QB there might be run on QBs before next pick and took the last of what I liked as Top 5. I think he is going to have a good season if healthy and could rise up to top 3 as he did a few years back.
 
29twolves
      ID: 57491413
      Tue, Aug 30, 2016, 19:40
6.07 Matt Jones RB
Really wanted to take WR here but the few I wanted had gone. With 3 starting RBs I liked left (Arian Foster and R. Jennings) took a chance despite recent injury as having potential RB2 numbers if healthy and hope for a second year jump.
 
30SwinganaMiss
      ID: 537471117
      Tue, Aug 30, 2016, 21:12
3.04 Alshon Jeffery, WR CHI
Usually by the third round I would have 2 RBs secured. So, I was hoping to take one here. However, with 5 WR taken in a row prior to my pick I really felt like Jeffrey was the last on that tier, with potential to surpass most/all of those 5 ahead of him. I'm thinking that I even considered Jeffrey at 2.04, so quite happy to have him slide to me a round later. If I had gone for RB, it would have been CJ Anderson. I just traded him away in a keeper league, so I don't really want him to be crushing it every week--better to avoid him, so that I don't have to root for him.
 
31SwinganaMiss
      ID: 537471117
      Tue, Aug 30, 2016, 21:19
4.04 Carlos Hyde, RB SFO
From about 2.04, I had been telling myself that I would take Mack at 4.04 if he was available. His position change vaults him into a different stratosphere. However, by the time this pick rolled around I was really not comfortable with only one RB. So, I went the "safe" route and took Hyde here. He already has a concussion, a new coach, and a lousy QB--what's not to love? If he can stay healthy, and the 49ers don't get too far behind every week, he can be the focal point of this terrible offense and score decent points. I would have taken Murray, had he not gone one pick earlier. I considered a few other RBs--Langford, to corner the Sparty market, Mathews as an Eagles fan, or Gore as a Colts season ticket holder, were other options I considered.
 
32mmikulka
      ID: 257492917
      Tue, Aug 30, 2016, 21:20
3.11 Matt Forte, RB NYJ

Forte has been a 1st/2nd rounder for a long time, and has been worth it almost every year. He's getting old, but he played well last year after returning from his injury, and he leaves a dysfunctional offense for a quality one. A slight reduction to his role should hopefully be offset by a more efficient offense. There is the worry that Forte won't necessarily be the goal line back, but even if that's the case, TDs have never been his selling point.

4.11 Doug Baldwin, WR SEA

TD regression. It's coming.

A lot of it, most likely.

I still believe in Doug Baldwin, though.

Last season, in the 8 games in which he was targeted more than 6 times, Baldwin averaged 93 yards, and the Seahawks averaged 31 points.

I would imagine scoring 10 TDs in a 4 game span was enough that Wilson is at least somewhat aware of that correlation. Baldwin was targeted far more in the 2nd half last season, and supposedly his rapport with Russell Wilson has been great this preseason.

I can't shake off the feeling that there's a chance he might go back to his 900 yard 4 TD ways, but I also can't shake off the feeling that he might put up video game numbers again.

5.04 Jeremy Langford, RB CHI

So I've read a few articles that suggest Langford was one of the worst backs in the league last year. I've read a few articles that suggest it will be some form of committee because of John Fox's tendencies. These are certainly legitimate concerns.

I owned Langford last year, though, so I also know that in the 7 games he had 13+ touches last year, his average was 91 yards, 0.7 TDs, and 13.3 fantasy points.

His lousy 3.6 YPC is based on less than 150 carries, and his 2.2 YPC in games with 6 or fewer carries is a lot of what brought it down that low. His two Forte-less games also happened to be against two of the league's toughest run defenses (Rams and Broncos).
 
33SwinganaMiss
      ID: 537471117
      Tue, Aug 30, 2016, 21:31
5.11 Lavonte David, LB TB
Stud LB was available. Next best thing to getting Mack, I guess. He should be very consistent again this season. I am not too worried about changes on the TB Defense. I was starting to get a little antsy about QB at this point. But, with only 3 teams up between this pick and next, I figured I could look again in the 6th. With Bell's suspension, I cannot afford to take Brady, and I am scared of Palmer.
 
34SwinganaMiss
      ID: 537471117
      Tue, Aug 30, 2016, 21:42
6.04 Blake Bortles, QB JAX
If you had told me before the draft that I would be starting Bortles in the RIFC, I would have been laughing first, then crying. The name just does not strike any fear whatsoever. However, Bortles was the 4th highest scoring player overall in this format last year. So, maybe I have a diamond again here. I don't expect top-4 numbers again. I am almost inclined to believe it was more about the Allen bros than Bortles. However, they are both still there and healthy--so let's shoot for an encore! Bortles was taken here as the 10th QB. Maybe I could have waited another round or even two, since #11 Rivers was not taken until 2 full rounds later at 8.05. Yikes!
 
35Philly Busters
      ID: 336352414
      Tue, Aug 30, 2016, 23:25
#12 Draft Slot

This is my 3rd year playing this format and the 3rd time I've picked the #12 slot. Gets some of the Rnd 3 benefit but a better Rnd 1 pick. Just feels right for me.

1.12
Like many late to middle pickers I held out hope for getting Miller. That was quashed sooner than I expected. I kept waiting for Gronk to go. For whatever foolish reason, I just can't bring myself to draft him this early. If he goes, I can get Green Elliott or Bell. No such luck. Didn't really want to risk Dez and a rookie QB but decided Prescott would lean on him whenever he needed a play. Romo would spread things around. This may actually mean more targets and opportunities for Dez. maybe...

2.03

Had a WR was set on filling the RB1 slot in round 2. Considered Freeman here but counting on Shady having another productive year left in him. Teams seemed to figure out Freeman and the Falcons the 2nd half of last year. Would definitely have taken Lacy if he'd still been on the board.

3.03

It was clear to me by the middle of round 2 that the value here would be on WR over a RB. Ranked about 7 or 8 in my queue and waited to see who was left standing. Ranked Hilton ahead of Jeffery because I think the Bears offense (meaning Cutler) will be a complete trainwreck this year.

4.03

So, I'm an old school guy and decided I needed to have 2 WR and 2 RB with the first 4 picks. The options were less than thrilling for my RB2 slot but I knew it would only get worse if I waited. Hyde was next on my list after Murray but the concussion and the complete lack of other offensive threats on the Niners made me wary. With Murray getting limited touches last year hoping he comes back strong this year. His ability to contribute in the passing game sealed the deal in taking him over Hyde.

 
36Doug
      ID: 326332712
      Wed, Aug 31, 2016, 00:15
5.05 - Michael Floyd
Obviously there are many talented WRs in ARI, but Fitz and JB have already been banged up a shade in the first two weeks of preseason. Even if they're healthy, Floyd would be a fair value here... but I also think he could emerge as the #1 guy this year and outperform this draft slot. He hasn't had consistency, but another thing I look for are guys who finished strong last year, and Floyd definitely had a better second-half after a hand injury seemed to hold him back early on.

Again though about Kelce, but didn't want to wait to pick 6.10 to pick up my second WR.
 
37Doug
      ID: 326332712
      Wed, Aug 31, 2016, 00:21
6.10 - Coby Fleener, TE, NO
Interesting how this shook out... but pretty excited to grab the talented NO TE with this pick. I had a few WRs I was looking at, maybe a tossup between Gordon and Austin, and a couple guys not far behind that... whereas TE I really wanted Fleener. I think he could be in for the best season of his career this far, or at least a repeat of 2014... but even if he falls short of that, he's a solid pick here.

I have Barnidge and Walker in a couple other leagues, and knew the 4 teams making the turn all needed TEs. Sure enough, 2 of them took TE (Barnidge and Walker) so I really doubt Fleener would have made it back to me. On the flip side, at WR Gordon was picked and Austin wasn't, so that made the next pick pretty easy for me!
 
38Doug
      ID: 326332712
      Wed, Aug 31, 2016, 00:26
7.05 - Tavon Austin, WR, LA
Playmaker with a new contract extension... clearly the team is invested in him... yes, there is downside risk with a rookie QB, but the fact he can add some return yards is a nice bonus. I am slightly concerned that he'll be mercurial (some big weeks, some bust weeks), but hopefully the rest of my team provides enough stability that his unpredictability won't hurt me too much. Good enough for my WR #3. Considered a few other WRs, including the 3 who went immediately after this pick, but I had Austin just a cut above.
 
39Philly Busters
      ID: 336352414
      Wed, Aug 31, 2016, 06:54
Guess it would help to actually put who I picked next to the pick number! DOH!

1.12 = Dez Bryant
2.03 = LeSean McCoy
3.03 = T.Y. Hilton
4.04 = DeMarco Murray

I really like putting capital letters in the middle of my players names!
 
40s R
      ID: 4734262
      Wed, Aug 31, 2016, 08:23
4.06 Donte Moncrief, WR, Ind

He was on top of my queue.
He played around 70% of total offensive snaps last year, which is bound to become higher. Although he was certainly not 100% with a hand injury, through Week 7 he did quite well for himself with Andrew Luck.
 
41s R
      ID: 4734262
      Wed, Aug 31, 2016, 08:29
5.09 Eli Manning, QB, NYG

QB time! Made a 3-man queue, Brees, Manning and Roethlisberger.
Drafted him last year and he was good but not excellent. But New York selected one of the best rookie talents in the draft. With the addition of Shepard, to go along with Odell his offensive help is finally here to break out.
 
42s R
      ID: 4734262
      Wed, Aug 31, 2016, 08:30
6.06 Jordan Matthews, WR, Phi

I hope a breakout year on the horizon. He is expected to move around more for new coach and not just play in the slot.
 
43twolves
      ID: 57491413
      Wed, Aug 31, 2016, 08:42
7.08 Devante Parker WR
I was in need of WR. Gmoney grabbed Desean Jackson one pick ahead of me who I had been targetting. Took D. Parker on potential for big season and hope he is recovered from injury to start season.
 
44Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Wed, Aug 31, 2016, 14:11
5.10 Frank Gore, RB, IND

At least my target didn't get sniped from me right before this pick. After losing out on Hyde in round 4, and then seeing a few of the "stable" RB options go off the board, I figured I should lock up one of the last sure fire starters left as my RB2. Gore is coming off a down season, however much of that can be attributed to Luck's injury, and the Colts offense as a whole. Assuming Luck plays well, and the Colts offense plays well, Gore should offer me some nice stability. Doesn't have the upside as some of the other options out there, but has a MUCH higher floor assuming he stays healthy.
 
45Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Wed, Aug 31, 2016, 14:15
6.05 Navarro Bowman, LB, SF

In these middle rounds, I generally like to look for players that I feel are a "tier" above the remaining players at their position. While my team needs were QB and TE, I didn't feel there was a ton of differentiation between the top guy available and the 4th or 5th guy available at each position. Rolling the dice and assuming someone I like would still be available one or two rounds later, I took Bowman here, feeling he was a significant tier ahead of the next group of LB's. Without Patrick Willis to steal tackles, Bowman was a stud last year, and with Chip Kelley running the offense, the defense should be on the field plenty. Also expect San Fran to be playing from behind a lot, meaning lots of rushing (leading to tackles) for their opponents. With Keuchly and Bowman anchoring my LB corps, I should have a huge leg up on all other teams, at least at one position.
 
46Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Wed, Aug 31, 2016, 14:21
7.10 Zach Ertz, TE, PHL

I thought about taking a TE in round 6, but I had 4 guys ranked very closely (Walker, Barnidge, Fleener, and Ertz). I picked Bowman instead hoping that at least one of them would make it to me in round 7, and luckily one (and only one) did. Ertz put up great numbers last season (Top 10 TE), and came on strong during the second half. He was the 4th best TE in football over his last 8 games. With another year to grow, and the continued aging of Brent Celek (the only other TE option in Philly), I expect more of the same, if not a little better. Had I lost out on Ertz, I would have panicked a bit, but very happy with how this one spot turned out.
 
47twilson
      ID: 37573115
      Wed, Aug 31, 2016, 14:28
3.14 Jeremy Hill, RB, CIN

After my WR/WR opening, I obviously had to go in a different direction with my third pick. The first half of the round was filled with the other WRs I considered at 2.14, but the back end gradually wrecked my queue. I managed to sell myself on Forte just in time to see him taken. At that point, I decided to commit to an upside down draft, sloughing RBs in favor of elite talent at other positions. Russell Wilson was going to be my fine consolation prize, as I see the Seattle shifting to a more passing-oriented offense with the retirement of Marshawn Lynch. Then Guru shifted into heartbreaker mode and sent me back to the drawing board.

QB would be Drew Brees, but I have him a tier below Wilson, and there’s no need to reach for a quarterback this year. Jordan Reed is near the top of the ADP board, but he’s not good enough to justify the major concussion and injury risk. Olsen is safer but is more of a 4th rounder. There’s no way I can open WR/WR/WR given the depth of talent at the position.

That leaves RB and IDP. I like Khalil Mack, but he already broke out last year. Not that he can’t show growth again, but I’m expecting more of the same in 2016. For the first time, I’ve joined the consensus and placed Luke Kuechly at the top of my LB rankings. I’m not opposed to the idea of leading off the position, though it does still feel early. Linebackers are a strength of mine and I don’t have to take the obvious names to generate production.

Just because the ones I liked are gone doesn’t mean I can’t suck it up and take a RB. It continues to make sense from a strategy perspective. Jeremy Hill and DeMarco Murray stand out as options. Both were late 1st rounders last year that had disappointing seasons, dropping their draft stock down to this range. The upside cases are clear. Murray was by far the best offensive fantasy asset a mere two years ago, and he spent 2015 in open rebellion with his coach while the team imploded. He’s now got a coach heavily hyping the running game and a promising second-year signal-caller at the helm. A potential backfield timeshare gives me pause, as that could make two years in a row Murray gets outplayed by a teammate.

Talking about being outplayed by a teammate, Jeremy Hill never got it going last year. His 2014 wasn’t anything close to Murray’s, but it was at least very promising. Despite his struggles in 2015, the coaching staff stuck with him and he maintained fantasy relevance as a low-end RB1. A new OC is in town now, but the Bengals also lost a lot of WR talent in free agency, so the carries will be there for the taking. Hill has spoken of dealing with nagging injuries last year, and is looking good in preseason.

I decided that I have a tentative trust in Hill to rebound, more so than I do in Murray. That was enough to make Hill my pick ahead of the IDPs.
 
48twolves
      Dude
      ID: 811161317
      Wed, Aug 31, 2016, 16:48
8.07 Aaron Donald DT
A couple of top DE/DT went off board already. I was potentially ready to take Mack in the 5th or 6th round if there but he was gone already. I was ready to start filling in some IDP positions. I liked A. Donald since owning him last year when he help carry me in the playoffs. This will be only his third year and hope he can build on last year and close the gap with JJ. My other consideration was Rashad Jones who went next as top safety.
 
49TD
      Leader
      ID: 036331011
      Wed, Aug 31, 2016, 17:37
6.02 Brown, John ARI WR
Brown is a 3rd year big play fast WR. Though his targets remained around the same, 103 in 2014 and 101 in 2015, his receptions improved from 48 to 65, and his yardage improved from 696 to 1003. I expect some additional improvement in 2016.
 
50TD
      Leader
      ID: 036331011
      Wed, Aug 31, 2016, 17:52
7.13 Sims, Charles TBB RB
I like Sims much more that just a handcuff to Martin. Last season he had over 500 yards both running and receiving and averaged over 8 fantasy points a game. I think he is a great value as a 2nd RB drafted late in the 7th round.
 
51TD
      Leader
      ID: 036331011
      Wed, Aug 31, 2016, 18:02
8.02 Snead, Willie NOS WR
I like to draft 4 quality WRs in the early rounds hoping that 3 of them produce and Snead is my 4th. Snead had a great rookie season with 984 receiving yards considering he was an undrafted free agent. He is projected to be a starter again this season and should produce good stats in Saints pass heavy offense.
 
52mmikulka
      ID: 257492917
      Wed, Aug 31, 2016, 20:57
6.11 Josh Gordon, WR CLE

In his last full season, Gordon had the following stretch of 4 games:

125 Yards 1 TD
237 Yards 1 TD
261 Yards 2 TD
185 Yards 1 TD

This occurred with Jason Campbell and Brandon Weeden splitting time at QB, and during these games the Browns scored an average of 21 points and went 0-4.

Gordon also had games with 168, 132, 126, and 119 yards that year, and was the #1 fantasy WR.

That Browns team went 4-12 and averaged 18.25 points per game, so chances are Gordon's situation can't be much worse this year.

He should have a QB (if healthy) who has a strong arm and who can escape the pocket to prolong broken plays.

Cleveland's defense is likely going to be horrible again, so there should be plenty of 2nd half garbage time. Between that and the dearth of other offensive playmakers on the team, Gary frickin Barnidge was vaulted to stardom last year.

Obviously Gordon is one drug offense away from the end of his career, he won't be on the field for the first 4 weeks, and by then it will have been almost 2 years since his last regular season game, but he's only 25 years old and he sure looked like an elite playmaker in that last preseason game.

7.04 Alec Ogletree, LB LA

I was torn between Arian Foster and Ogletree here, and then Guru made my decision easy by drafting Foster.

Ogletree was already putting up excellent tackle numbers on a per-game basis (elite on a per-snap basis), and now he becomes the 3-down MLB for the Rams.
 
53Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 21723188
      Wed, Aug 31, 2016, 21:05
4.12 Ryan Mathews, RB, Phi
I certainly wasn't planning on picking three straight running backs, but went for value instead of what I had been planning going into this pick. Surveying the available WR's, I had 3 that I had fairly even matched (Tate, Decker, Edelman). Looking at Guru's and twilson's squads, I decided to take a risk that all three wouldn't be selected seeing as both managers already had a WR. Hopefully, this doesn't backfire. I also briefly debated picking up a TE, but instead decided to go heavy with RB's. Mathews seems to have the driver's seat until the inevitable injury bug, but it should provide a contingency for just such an event with my stable of RB's. Incidentally, I noticed later that my 2nd and 3rd round-drafted RB's do have the same bye week... so all the more reason to get another solid rb.

5.03 Julian Edelman, WR, NE
Ok, one of the 3 WR that I had my sights with my previous pick made it back to me… so, I didn't completely shoot myself in the foot. However, in between twilson's and Guru's picks, I did some more research into Decker and Edelman, and entered a one-man queue in MFL of Decker. I didn't expect Guru to pick two WR's in between my two picks - hence, the one-man queue. My concern with Edelman is whether he's fully recovered from the injury that sidelined him a good portion of the season last year... not to mention his durability in general. Decker isn't nearly as flashy, but is a target machine in the redzone.

6.12 Delanie Walker, TE, TEN
With my last pair of picks, I had briefly debated a couple of TE's - Kelce and Walker. Kelce is long gone, but Walker looks to be a good fit at this slot. It's a bit disconcerting to see he had some breathing problems after the last preseason outing... hopefully that's a one-time thing. Last year he put up phenomenal numbers as a safety blanket for a rookie qb. Hopefully, that extends into this season. Noticed he was at the top of the list for ADP in MFL... not sure if that's good or bad, but it made him easy to find.

7.03 Jamie Collins, LB, NE
I was actually a bit surprised when Guru didn't steal who I was going to pick when I got the text that I was on the clock… so, then I started to have second thoughts, and looked briefly at QB. Decided to go ahead and go with my gut and get a top-tier LB, and deal with what's left at the QB position next time around. Collins is a monster, and in a contract year, so let's see what he can do.
 
54Doug
      ID: 326332712
      Thu, Sep 01, 2016, 00:17
8.10 - D'Qwell Jackson, LB, IND
Abdullah kept falling and I would have taken him as my #3 RB but he went a pick before me. My second choice was Reshad Jones, who went the pick before that. I considered Crowell here, but decided the smarter play was to grab the stud LB who will start every week and roll the dice on the backup RB making it back to me after the turn (he did!)
 
55Doug
      ID: 326332712
      Thu, Sep 01, 2016, 00:24
9.05 - Isaiah Crowell, RB, CLE
CLE management seems high on him and should be plenty of touches for both him and Duke Johnson. Of the remaining RBs I felt he far and away gave the strongest upside while also having a decent floor. I do like Gordon as my RB#2, but I also acknowledge he could be a bust, so felt it was pretty important to have a reliable RB#3 on board. This is the point in the draft where we have to decide between backup/upside offense guys versus adding quality starters at IDP. My tendency is to split the difference and take one of each per cycle (per even.10 pick and odd.5 pick)
 
56Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Thu, Sep 01, 2016, 07:45
8.05 Phillip Rivers, QB, SDC

I've waited long enough on QB, and Rivers was one of the last guys I was comfortable with throwing out there as a my starter. When Keenan Allen was healthy last year, Rivers was playing at a very high level, ranking as the 7th highest QB over the first half of the season. When Allen went down, so did the entire Chargers offense. I'll hope for Allen and Antonio Gates's health, but I'm also optimistic that with addition of Travis Benjamin, and steadiness of Danny Woodhead, Rivers could be in line for another solid season.
 
57Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Thu, Sep 01, 2016, 07:47
9.10 Derrick Henry, RB, DAL

This was the first pick so far this draft that I immediately regretted after pushing "OK". I like Henry as a player, and feel like he's a solid option as my RB3, with the upside to offer good value. In the event of a Murray injury (which was common in his early years), Henry could even be a steal. With that said, I didn't really need a RB, and should have jumped at the opportunity to grab one of the elite DL (Griffen, Cox, Vernon). We'll see if this one bites me.
 
58twolves
      ID: 57491413
      Thu, Sep 01, 2016, 08:37
9.08 Deone Buchanon LB
Some of the top linebackers went off the board including Sean Lee in front of me who I liked for a nice jump this year and had targeted. I took next LB that I liked. He was a safety for me last year and also has potential to improve on last season.
 
59twolves
      ID: 57491413
      Thu, Sep 01, 2016, 08:42
10.07 Landon Collins S
S/CB is tough to gauge this year after Rashad Jones.
If Mathieu can play he was the clear choice and was the original plan. However, I played it safe here as I have a few walking wounded already and a number of others with same bye week.
 
60Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Thu, Sep 01, 2016, 09:09
10.05 Calais Campbell, DL, ARI

Having missed out on both Griffen and Cox due to my Henry pick, I decided to jump on Campbell. He's coming off of a down season, with only 5 sacks, but still consider him to be in the upper tier of DL. Even with his low sack totals, he tends to get more tackles, and especially TFL's that most DL's who rely exclusively on sacks for points. If his tackles stay consistent and he ups his sack total back into the 8-10 range he could threaten the top DL's again. Arizona has also upgraded their DL, which hopefully gives him a bit more "room" to get to the QB.
 
61twilson
      ID: 37573115
      Thu, Sep 01, 2016, 12:19
4.14 Khalil Mack, DL, OAK
5.01 Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR

This is the first time I wasn’t bothered by the preceding picks. Kuechly was taken, but that was no huge loss. Taking stock of the available universe, I saw a few different options: DL, LB, QB, and RB.

Khalil Mack has been reclassified to DL. Last year, he was a 10ppg performer and Defensive POY candidate. Mack is young, healthy, and extremely talented. He’s not at JJ Watt’s level, but what human is? Elite linemen are my favorite way to kick off an IDP draft, and Mack offers both a high ceiling and floor.

Lavonte David is another absolute stud on the defensive side of the ball. I’ve always wanted to own him, and this seems like a good opportunity to do so. His track record is stellar, and he has a spotless injury history. My concern is a diminished ceiling due to the presence of [undrafted].

One more quarterback is worth an early pick, in my opinion. Drew Brees has been incredibly consistent ever since his move to New Orleans, and he has his best supporting cast since the heyday of Colston, Graham, and Sproles. He’s getting up there in years, but I see little reason why 2016 is the time for decline.

At running back, I think this will be the last time I get a chance to select a clear workhorse. I see four left, and I prefer the known quantities Stewart and Gore to Langford and Matt Jones. Despite little competition for carries, I don’t believe in the talent level of these two enough to invest a top 60 pick.

Jonathan Stewart benefitted from a season of ideal game scripts to put up nearly 1000 yards in Carolina’s 13-0 start before missing the final three meaningless games with a minor injury. It’s not the first time he’s gotten hurt, either. With that said, the Panthers are likely to be very good again this year in a weak defensive division, and Stewart has nobody behind him threatening his role. He’s pretty good at football, too.

Frank Gore is another talented veteran. Some people are counting him out due to his age and underwhelming results last year, but I chalk them up more to the poor offensive line and underwhelming game scripts after Luck went down. In particular, his touchdown total is sure to increase alongside the offensive rebound. Like Stewart, his workhorse role is unchallenged. He’s also an ironman, playing the full 16 games in each of the last four seasons. Of the two, Gore offers greater production through the air. However, while Luck is back, the offensive line continues to be one of the league’s worst, so his ceiling has a cap.

Due to my preference for DL over LB, I prefer Mack to David. As much sense as he makes as a value pick, I’m going to pass on Brees. I’ll probably regret that later this year, but late QB worked out very well for me in 2015 (Newton at QB#13), so I figure I’ll try it again.

Stewart gets the vote over Gore because I believe in his offense and team more, but it’s splitting hairs. That makes it between him and David for my 5th round selection.

Picking David increases my team’s ceiling, as I would add an elite difference maker. Stewart instead would be the high floor choice, as I will otherwise be mixing and matching committee backs in my RB2 slot until someone sticks. I went back and forth on this for quite a while, and ultimately made what I think is the cowardly but likely prudent choice to shore up my RB position.
 
63twilson
      ID: 37573115
      Thu, Sep 01, 2016, 13:18
6.14 Marvin Jones, WR, DET
7.01 Rashad Jennings, RB, NYG

Lots of QBs off the board in that stretch! It makes me regret my non-pick of Brees a little bit, but it’s not like I was going to take one here regardless. I also don’t think it is the right time for a TE, nor a DL since I already have Mack.

I’m focusing on RB/WR/LB/DB. When I was debating RB2 at 5.01, a major question I had was if any interesting names would be there at the next turn. Rashad Jennings and Ameer Abdullah were my primary foci, and both are still around. Jennings was mired in a miserable four-back committee for most of the season last year. But when the Giants committed to him as the lead back over the final four games, he responded quite well. This role structure has seemingly continued this preseason, which gives him real upside. I have my doubts about his leash length, but we will see. It bears noting that the Giants offense has been abysmal in preseason, particularly the play of the offensive line.

I was absolutely delighted to take Ameer Abdullah at 5.13 last year, but he didn’t deliver on my hopes and expectations. It’s not that he was awful or anything, but a combination of fumblitis and strict division of committee roles sucked away his upside. The kick return job gave him a nice floor, though. Now we’re back for another season and I have the opportunity to double down on my bet. I continue to believe in his talent and all-around ability. He can succeed as the goal line back and as a receiver if the coaching staff gives him the chance. I’m just not very sure that this will happen, as the same stable of backs remain in the picture. RBs who leave the field on third down and at the goal line are not very useful in fantasy.

The linebacker tier is deep, but I like CJ Mosley. He’s coming off a 9.7 ppg sophomore season and his biggest competitor for tackles has left town. I was skeptical of him a year ago, but that combo is quite enticing this time around.

Unusually for me since the decline of the CB/returner stud, I’m actually considering a defensive back in the single digit rounds. The season Reshad Jones had last year was pretty exceptional, though! He and Tyrann Mathieu were the second and third DBs to break the 10 ppg barrier, and the first since 2011. Jones has been a DB1 since 2012, so he’s virtually guaranteed to be useful. My reluctance stems from the improvement of Miami’s LB corps and the fact that competent or better DBs are often completely free.

I also like Marvin Jones a lot. He’s a guy I’ve drafted frequently before, including last year (though I dropped him later on), and he’s in by far the best situation of his career. Detroit loves to throw the ball, and a ton of targets are up for grabs with the retirement of Calvin Johnson. I think Marvin Jones is a better receiver than Golden Tate and will gobble up the larger share of the offense. This would definitely be a luxury pick because I feel confident that good WR will continue to be available later on.

After some debate, I gave myself permission to do the luxury pick. I decided I could live with only one of Mosley, Jones, and Jennings. Mosley and Jones became the odd men out because I trust myself in finding late/FA LB/DBs and I do believe in Jennings’ upside case. He’s always done well when given the opportunity, health permitting.
 
64s R
      ID: 4474191
      Thu, Sep 01, 2016, 15:32
7.09 Gates, Antonio SDC TE

TE wanted. Barnidge, Gates and Thomas was on my list.
Gates has only missed 10 games due injury and has played hurt often throughout his career, he is also as consistent as they come. He had less than 50 yards in only three games last season, and he’s always a threat to score in the redzone.
 
65s R
      ID: 4474191
      Thu, Sep 01, 2016, 15:36
8.06 Mosley, C.J. BAL LB

He doesn't have much tackle competition around him and should be a fairly safe bet for 120+ total tackles and few sacks.
 
66s R
      ID: 4474191
      Thu, Sep 01, 2016, 15:39
9.09 Wilkerson, Muhammad NYJ DE

He's been one of the most dominant 3-4 defensive ends in the league.
 
67s R
      ID: 4474191
      Thu, Sep 01, 2016, 15:41
10.06 Powell, Bilal NYJ RB

He will split carries with Forte and has fresher legs. Could see a lot more action.
 
68TD
      Leader
      ID: 036331011
      Thu, Sep 01, 2016, 18:02
9.13 Blount, LeGarrette NEP RB
Drafted Blount as my 3rd RB. Looks like he will have the power back role. Similar to the role he had last year when he averaged close to 10 fnatasy points/game. But it is always a mystery on how Belichick will use his RBs week to week. Which is why he was not drafted higher.
 
69TD
      Leader
      ID: 036331011
      Thu, Sep 01, 2016, 18:15
10.02 Vernon, Olivier NYG DE
I am once again one of the last managers to draft an IDP. I don't draft them early because I find them hard too evaluate, and I can easily find free agent repleacements during the season. I usually start with DL because this is the scarcest IDP position. I mostly rely on previous seasons stats to evaluate. Last year as a rookie, Oliver was the 6th ranked fantasy DL with much improvement in the 2nd half of the season. It usually takes a couple of years for DE's to mature so I expect more improvement this year.
 
70TD
      Leader
      ID: 036331011
      Thu, Sep 01, 2016, 18:36
11.13 Michael, Christine SEA RB
Even though I already had 3 RBs, I could not pass on Michael. With Lynch retired and Rawls having an injured ankle, Michael has made the most of his opporunity this preseason. Even though Rawls is expected back for week 1, I expect Michael to have a bigger role this season. There is a chance he could end up being Seattle's lead back and put up big numbers.
 
71TD
      Leader
      ID: 036331011
      Thu, Sep 01, 2016, 18:40
12.02 Barron, Mark RAM LB
Barron was the 12th ranked fantasy LB last season. He recently converted from safety. I expect similar production this season.
 
72twolves
      ID: 57491413
      Thu, Sep 01, 2016, 20:43
11.08 Kwon Alexander LB
Continued filling out IDP as a young LB I liked was still on the board. He had good production last year before suspension. Hopefully he stays out of trouble and builds on last year.

12.07 Marcus Wheaton WR
Finally took WR after 2 of the 3 I had hoped to get in the next 2 round went off the board ahead of me. He does have potential for good year after Bryant lost and if does any returning of kicks instead of Antonio Brown it would be bonus.
 
73twolves
      ID: 57491413
      Thu, Sep 01, 2016, 20:49
13.08 Andy Dalton QB
After Carr and Stafford went whom I rated together along with Dalton decided could not wait any longer for backup QB. Despite losing some of his receiving corp, I think he will have a good year.
 
74Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 21723188
      Thu, Sep 01, 2016, 22:38
8.12 Smith, Telvin LB, Jax
Looking at the rosters at this point, WR and RB have been picked over pretty heavily. LB is another position that supports multiple starters - I decided to lock in 2 of the top ten with Smith after taking Collins with my previous pick. This should afford me some flexibility later on when the LB run happens. I had him last year, and he was very consistent - (fantasy point) numbers that actually rivaled the top RB/WR. Was also thinking about getting Cousins here. If he makes it back to me I will likely go that direction (most upside of remaining options).

9.03 Quinn, Robert DE, LA
I was really focused on two potential players with this pick, but wanted to see where the draft was headed in order to decide. The guys I identified were Kirk Cousins and Robert Quinn - both ahead of their ADP and where they were going in the other RIFC drafts, but both as high value picks. In fact, I had both of these guys on my radar with my pick 5 selections ago, but figured it was safe to wait until round 9. In the interim two other defensive linemen were picked - helping me to get Quinn before all the best options dried up - and trying to launch a full-out run on DL's so that Cousins might make it back to me (but not holding my breath).

10.12 Cousins, Kirk, QB, Was
I'm sure I'm overly optimistic/hyped, but I'm really happy that Cousins dropped to me here. As I said in my last rationale, I'd debated picking him then but opted for Quinn instead. In the interim 5 DL were taken and no QB's... so looks like I picked right and got both of my guys. Cousins put up great numbers last year - under a lot of people's radar (mine included). Shows up as the 8th rated qb last year, including 3- 30 point weeks. I'll be very happy with that at this point in the draft, and expect him to show improvement with some additional targets. I had looked at Stafford or Cousins earlier, but was really wary of Stafford without Megatron. Had Cousins been selected, I likely would have waited 2 more rounds to figure out who was left.

11.03 Funchess, Devin, WR, Car
I started out looking at the gaps in my lineup, and DB stood out. However, a ton of good options there still, as there hasn't been a run - I feel comfortable waiting for 22 picks (or whatever I have to wait on the long-way around). Chose instead to round out my starting wide outs... I had already earmarked Funchess and Diggs as targets. I downgraded Diggs, however, with Bridgewater being out for the season. I also have Funchess in G24, so hoping he lives up to the hype he's been getting this preseason.

12.12 Clinton-Dix, Ha Ha S, GB
I panicked right after this pick, because I thought I picked the wrong Ha Ha... but it turns out it was the Clinton-Dix variety.. sigh of relief. Since we need two DB's, and there are still a few elite ones available, figured I'd grab one before their ranks start to dwindle. Actually, my first option here was Theo Riddick to get a solid backup running back, but rolling the dice as both Guru and twilson have 4 rb's already.
 
75SwinganaMiss
      ID: 537471117
      Thu, Sep 01, 2016, 23:15
7.11 Sterling Shepard, WR NYG
I really hadn't planned to go after Shepard here, but I wanted a 3rd WR w/ some upside. Originally I thought to grab Crabtree, but there's not a lot of upside there. Shepard could make for a great 3rd WR, or could completely dud out. The G-men don't look great, and ODB will get his. It's a gamble for 3rd receiver, for sure.

8.04 DeAngelo Williams, RB PGH
Williams was nearing the top of the ADP sort on MFL, so it's time to put the make-shift plan and insurance policy into action. Williams will start the first 3 games, and then hopefully ride my bench while Bell shreds opposing Defenses.

9.11 Everson Griffen, DL MIN
I wanted a top 10 DL, even though there are only a couple of sure-fire top performers. Griffen fits the mold of my team -- being a guy who got nicked up last year and needs to bounce back big this season. He has a good chance to do just that. I like the two picks just prior to mine. For a DL, I prefer Wilkerson. I would've grabbed Henry here, if he had lasted one more pick. I still have a shortage at RB.


10.04 Derrick Johnson, LB KC
Johnson will have the designation of being the only guy who I have on both my RIFC and RG14 squads. I really try to avoid doubling down on the same player twice. But DJ is one of my favorites to watch, so I made an exception. In many rankings I had seen, he was easily top 10 LB. Getting him as the 15th LB seems like exceptional value.

 
76twolves
      ID: 57491413
      Fri, Sep 02, 2016, 10:30
14.07 Michael Thomas WR

Still needed receiving help and this rookie looks to be an integral part of NOS passing attack this year.
 
77TD
      Leader
      ID: 036331011
      Fri, Sep 02, 2016, 11:36
13.13 Bennett, Martellus NEP TE
Bennett was one of the higher scoring TEs when he played for the Bears. I wanted him as a handcuff to Gronk. I expect him to produce like a TE2 and I may be able to use him as a bye week fill at WR/TE even if Gronk does not get hurt.
 
78TD
      Leader
      ID: 036331011
      Fri, Sep 02, 2016, 11:43
14.02 Flacco, Joe BAL QB
A lot of QBs were drafted in round 13, and I still needed a backup. Didn't think many would be left for me to choose from at 15.13. Flacco's fantasy numbers won't be near the top, but he is in no danger of losing his job. He appears to be fully recovered from the ACL injury he had last season.
 
79Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Fri, Sep 02, 2016, 16:40
Morgan Burnett, S, GBP

My past few RIFC drafts, I've set out to try and get at least one upper tier player at each IDP position. Having locked up Keuchly and Campbell, I needed a DB, and Burnett was one of the last left that I felt had a chance to be in the top 10. He was hurt last year, which hurt his overall numbers, but once healthy put up consistently good numbers. The GB front 7 looks to be weak again, which should offer plenty of tackle opportunities for Burnett.
 
80Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Fri, Sep 02, 2016, 16:44
12.05 Tajae Sharpe, WR, TEN

After taking Mike Evans and Demaryius Thomas early, I had completely neglected the WR position. There were plenty of "safe" options available that I considered here (V. Jackson, M. Wheaton, etc..) but no one that has the upside of Sharpe. I usually try to avoid getting caught up in the rookie hype, and there's a ton of it surrounding Sharpe, but felt he offered a the upside of a stud rookie, with the opportunity provided by possibly being the #1 target in TEN.
 
81Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Fri, Sep 02, 2016, 16:48
13.10 Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, NYJ

Because I waited to draft my first QB (Rivers in the 8th), I wanted to try and get a better than average QB2 that I could rotate in and provide decent numbers. Jameis Winston and Dalton were my top two targets, but both were taken. Fitzpatrick and Stafford were the other two on my list, and I wanted to make sure I grabbed one of them. Seconds after drafting, I realized that he has the same bye week as Rivers, but it's not until week 11, so I have plenty of time to figure out a solution. Fitz has every reason to match his production from last year, and with a weaker running game. The Jets new RB (Forte) catches a ton of passes, and their young TE (undrafted) now joins an already stacked receiving corps.
 
82Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Fri, Sep 02, 2016, 16:51
14.05 Kamar Aiken, WR, BAL
Aiken showed good progress last year, and when Steve Smith went down, he put up great numbers. Smith is back, but as fragile as ever, and even when Smith is on the field, Aiken should get a good number of targets. A combo of Sharpe/Aiken as my WR 3/4 gives me a good mix of upside/safety.
 
83mmikulka
      ID: 257492917
      Fri, Sep 02, 2016, 18:05
8.11 Jimmy Graham, TE SEA

Yeah, he disappointed his fantasy owners last season and then he ruptured his patellar tendon. But falling outside the top 10 TEs? That’s crazy to me. He was sprinting on the sideline before the last preseason game, it looks like he has a good shot of playing week 1, and he’s still 6’7” with an elite QB in a prolific offense.

It seems like everybody has forgotten that Graham is only 1 year removed from four seasons where he put up 889/10, 1215/16, 982/9, and 1310/11. Even during last year’s disaster, he was on pace for almost 900 yards. I expect the TDs to return this year.

Even if the injury turns out to have completely destroyed Graham, I’m sure I’ll be able to find a late-round TE2 who can approximate the output of a Zach Ertz / Julius Thomas.

9.04 Justin Forsett, RB BAL

I now own Forsett in all 3 of my leagues. To say he’s not a sexy pick is an understatement, but he was great 2 years ago, solid last year before the injury (85 yards per game, 4.2 per carry), and Harbaugh said that Forsett has been looking as good as he did when he was a Pro-Bowler.

There are a bunch of Baltimore RBs who could conceivably replace him, but it’s not like any of them are particularly talented or exciting, and it seems to me like Forsett has separated from them during the preseason and will get the first shot.

He got around 20 touches per game the last 2 seasons, and I think he has a good shot at making it 3 years in a row (and he’s a quality WR, so his touches have been safe regardless of gameflow). That would be pretty nice from RB #32!

10.11 Paul Posluszny, LB JAC
I was debating finally taking a QB here: Once Brady/Brees went, I viewed 10+ QBs roughly equally and just waited forever. My top choice here was Tyrod Taylor, but I liked enough other QBs well enough to wait.

Posluszny is a bit riskier than he normally would be, thanks to the presence of a hyped (though currently undrafted) rookie. He slipped pretty far down, though, and should be a LB1 value as long as he stays healthy and maintains his role.


11.04 Marcus Mariota, QB TEN

I still needed a QB. twilson went with Tyrod Taylor, as I was afraid he would. My top choice at this point was Stafford, but I viewed Ryan and Dalton as similarly safe and undervalued options and figured one would be around at the next turn. Mariota was the only QB left I thought had a chance to light it up and be an elite fantasy QB.

Mariota’s great fantasy season last year was somewhat under the radar: his final stats looked underwhelming because he missed several games, and his fairly good 17.3 points/game leaps up to 18.9 (7th overall) when you remove the game he got injured on the first drive.

The Titans’ defense is likely going to be lousy again, so he’ll have to throw a lot and should rack up some garbage time points. The offensive line can’t be any worse this year, and they’ve added a WR he feels comfortable with and a pair of weapons at RB.

That 112 yard rushing game that happened towards the end of his season looks mighty tantalizing, too, considering that running wasn’t even a big part of his game last year.

12.11 Steve Smith, WR BAL
With both Ryan and Dalton still on the board, I felt safe that one would make it back to me on the turn.

Despite being like 50 years old, Smith will likely be a target monster again for Baltimore. He’ll probably get injured or fade out around week 10 like the past two years, but Josh Gordon will be off his suspension by then.
 
84mmikulka
      ID: 257492917
      Fri, Sep 02, 2016, 19:14
13.04 Matt Ryan, QB ATL

Sure enough, both Ryan and Dalton were still available. Dalton has been a solid QB1 in 2 of the past 3 seasons, but nobody is really treating him like that’s a possibility. At this point, though, I was looking for safety, and I didn’t trust Dalton as much now that the Bengals' WR 2/3 are gone and Eifert’s injured.

Before last year, Ryan was a top 8 QB in 4 of the last 5 seasons. He still played very well last year: he was very accurate and he broke 4,500 passing yards for the 4th consecutive time, but he couldn’t throw a TD pass to save his life.

A pretty striking stat (courtesy of Matthew Berry):
In the past five seasons, there have been only three instances in the NFL where a QB has thrown 600 passes, completed at least 66 percent of them, but FAILED to throw at least 29 touchdowns:
Matt Ryan, 2013
Matt Ryan, 2014
Matt Ryan, 2015

So that looks like a pattern.

However, last year’s 21 TDs was absurd:

There were 11 other QBs who threw for 4,500+ yards in the past 3 years, and they averaged over 36 TDs.

Among the QBs with 21 or fewer TDs during the past 3 years, nobody else even reached 4,000 yards.

So I’m expecting a bit of a bounceback year with plenty of regression on his bad TD luck.


14.11 Zach Miller, TE CHI
From the beginning of the draft, I knew I wanted at least 2 TEs regardless of who my first one was.

I like having depth (especially since I consider all but 3 TEs to be hit or miss this year), and having the WR/TE slot makes it extra appealing.

I was surprised Eifert was still available, but I had minimal interest in him. Maybe I would have considered gambling on last year’s TD totals not being a complete fluke if he didn’t also have the injury looming over him.

Miller was somebody I had my eye on for a while. He was excellent last year while Martellus Bennett was injured, and now that Bennett’s in New England, Miller’s path is clear all season. The Bears will probably have to throw frequently again, and Cutler has a history of targeting his TE.
 
85twolves
      ID: 57491413
      Fri, Sep 02, 2016, 22:49
15.08 D. Booker RB

Most of the RB are backups that are left but indications are he will get some playing time and if CJ gets hurt, he could have a big year. By later in season, he could work as bye week fill in if needed I hope.
 
86Doug
      ID: 326332712
      Fri, Sep 02, 2016, 22:58
10.10 - Corey Graham, S BUF
I don't usually go for DBs until the end but Corey was at the top of my rankings and a couple DBs had just come off the board... so I figured I'd get a plug-n-play starter and then after the turn could make an upside pick. Hopefully I'm not over-valuing last year's performance here... even with some mild regression I think he was a good choice here.
 
87Doug
      ID: 326332712
      Fri, Sep 02, 2016, 23:09
11.05 - Corey Coleman, WR, CIN
Ha, just realized I took back-to-back Corey's around the turn. I was about a round behind on my first 3 WRs compared to most, and two of my guys could be a bit mercurial with the return yards. So I figured I'd better add some depth, not just for byes, but in case one of my guys doesn't work out.

Rookies are always a gamble, but at least in camp Coleman has looked ready for the transition to NFL. He could be top-dog early on... and even if he loses some targets to Josh Gordon when he returns, that should also mean he's getting some more favorable defensive matchups on his side of the field. I was falling a bit behind on starter IDPs compared to other teams, but felt it was more critical to get another upside receiver for my bench first.
 
88Doug
      ID: 326332712
      Fri, Sep 02, 2016, 23:11
12.10 - Lawrence Timmons, LB, PIT
Nothing earth-shattering to say here: solid production with some big-play potential... didn't want to fall too far behind on IDPs, especially at LB... he's a guy I've had on my team numerous times over the years. Just seemed a solid starter IDP pick. Next pick I'll get to flip back to focusing on upside again.
 
89Doug
      ID: 326332712
      Fri, Sep 02, 2016, 23:17
13.05 - Phillip Dorsett, WR, IND
I'm long on Indy's passing O this year... I think Luck will have a strong bounce-back year. I've got Moncrief in a few leagues, TY in another... this is the first time I've picked up Dorsett. If you're gonna take team's 3rd wideout, do it in New Orleans, Indy, etc. There should be plenty of love to go around and he'll be a solid contributor regardless... but if Hilton or Moncrief falter or get injured, he could become a top-20 WR in a flash. Or, he could wind up lost in the shuffle and not really be a guy you want as a fantasy starter. That's fine, I'll take the risk... I may not hit on all my picks, but I just need a few to come through, so I focus on guys with high potential ceilings.
 
90Doug
      ID: 326332712
      Fri, Sep 02, 2016, 23:20
14.10 - Will Fuller, WR, HOU
Staying true to my MO at WR... high upside, low floor. Fuller's had glowing reviews in camp and could be a breakout rookie who lights the league on fire... or... he could put up pedestrian numbers once the real season begins and he adjusts to NFL-caliber defenses playing at full strength. I'm fine with that. But I like what I'm hearing right now and hope he can keep it going into the regular season.
 
91Doug
      ID: 326332712
      Fri, Sep 02, 2016, 23:24
15.05 - Eric Ebron, TE, DET
Here's a guy who really disappointed me in his rookie year. But we all know the learning curve for rookie TEs is notoriously steep. He made a big improvment last year, and now may get even more looks with Megatron retiring. I'm pretty high on Coby Fleener, but felt this was a good value pick and that he represented the end of a "tier" of TEs... none of the remaining guys had his upside. Dream scenario here is that both Ebron and Fleener play up to their top-5 TE potentials and I can flip him for a good upgrade at some other position where my luck wasn't as strong.
 
92twolves
      ID: 57491413
      Sat, Sep 03, 2016, 11:33
16.07 J. Cyprien S

Needed to fill out my IDP. He is on a new team with usage apparently in flux but hopefully he will continue to have a high tackle count and maintain a consistent floor at DB.
 
93Philly Busters
      ID: 336352414
      Sat, Sep 03, 2016, 13:30
Sorry all that I've fallen so far behind on the rationales. I've been concentrating on keeping queues current. And my picks rarely have a discernible rationale! But I'll try my best to describe my thinking.

5.12 - Emmanuel Sanders

I was looking to continue with my core starting offense and didn't feel the value at TE or QB was there at this point in the draft. Actually had Sanders high on my WR list here. Many have devalued the Den WRs but both Sanders and Thomas put up good numbers last year with crappy QB play from Manning. Sanders has also done some punt return work in the past. Not counting on any of that but it could be a bonus at some point.

6.03 Carson Palmer

A bunch of QBs came off the board after my round 5 queue was set so I decided I better jump on the bandwagon. Put Palmer and Bortles in the queue and was thrilled that Palmer made it back to me. Brady carried me last year when I successfully gambled that he would play. Couldn't toss out 4 games this time. The starting offense was really taking shape with this pick.

7.12 Julius Thomas

had one starting spot on my offense to fill with this pick and it seemed like everyone else was looking at TE between 6.03 and this pick. I had a bunch queued ahead of Thomas but I'm happy to get him. He's a viable red zone option in what should be a solid offensive team. Bortles goes to the WRs frequently in close but there should be plenty of opportunities for him as well. Serviceable TE and the best available in my mind.

8.03 T.J. Yeldon

Offensive backup or begin to hit the defensive side of the roster? RB options were getting thin so decided I better get something usable here. Yeldon should be a solid bye week replacement in a good offense. Now looking hard at bye weeks to make sure i'm covered.

9.12 Fletcher Cox

I was concerned about missing out on top flight DL options and, being an Eagles fan, rated him higher than most people would. Counting on the same things the Eagles are with giving him the big contract. Hope he works his butt off to earn it instead of easing up now that he's getting paid. He's a disruptive force both against the run and rushing the passer.

10.03 Thomas Davis

He's a tackling machine in a great defense. Kuechly graciously leaves him a few plays to make and I want those points! He's an active, every down LB who consistently puts up solid point totals. Happy to have him as my LB1.
 
94Philly Busters
      ID: 336352414
      Sat, Sep 03, 2016, 15:12
11.12 Dante Fowler

At least in my mind this is my first questionable pick. I really wanted to get him as a lottery ticket pick but had no clue when he might go. I've seen others come off the board much earlier than I expected so I had him right behind Morgan Burnett in my queue. Burnett went 2 picks before so I got him here. I have no idea what I'll get but reports are very positive out of the jaguars camp. But lots of training camp heroes turn into regular season busts. We'll see. I'll have to make sure I get a solid DL3 just in case.

12.03 Ryan Shazier

If he can stay healthy and play a full season, I think he's capable of putting up some big numbers as my LB2. Plays all 3 downs and has the speed to get to the ball or the QB. Still young and should be trending up for the next few years.

13.12 Alex Smith

Fortunately I didn't have this queue set and was able to make the pick right after getting home from work. A bunch of back up QBs came off the board and wanted to make sure I didn't end up with a bum. There are several (bums) who will have to be drafted to cover a starter and backup for each team. Smith wasn't my favorite to be Palmer's backup but he was the best available on my list.

14.03 Kenny Vaccaro

Back to defensive starters. Didn't have a DB yet and he looked like the best pick here. Good tackle numbers since the Saints defense generally have trouble getting off the field and he'll have a chance to make plays downfield as teams have to respect the Saints offense and continue passing even with a solid lead.

15.12 Chris Hogan

Needed a backup WR and though there are always serviceable options at this position, I didn't want to wait any longer. He's looked good this preseason and should fit in perfectly as a Welker, Edelman, Amendola type dink and dunk possession receiver in the Pats offense. As a bye week replacement won't need him before week 7 as long as no one gets hurt. By then I should have a good idea whether he's worth keeping around.

16.03 Preston Brown

Back to defense! Another 3 down LB who can put up consistently solid tackle numbers as my Flex defender. And his bye week fits with my other LBs. High praise indeed!

17.12 Shane Vereen

Needed another backup RB and this pool was really starting to dry up. While the Giants backfield situation is a bit jumbled, Vereen seems to to slated for 3rd down and change of pace type work. If I need him in the lineup, hoping for 5 - 10 carries and 5 targets. At least he'll have an opportunity to pick up some yardage.

18.03 Kenny Stills

He has a chance to be the #2 option in the Dolphin passing game ahead of DeVante Parker. If that happens he likely passes Hogan as my WR4 and primary bye week replacement. Since I'm not sure on the roles these 2 guys will fill, just need one of them to step up.

 
95TD
      Leader
      ID: 036331011
      Sat, Sep 03, 2016, 15:43
15.13 Wright, K.J. SEA LB
Now that there is not much to choose from in offense positions, I am starting to draft mostly IDPs. Wright has been a top 20 fantasy LB the last few years and at 27 is in the prime of his career.
 
96SwinganaMiss
      ID: 537471117
      Sat, Sep 03, 2016, 15:47
11.11 Tevin Coleman, RB ATL
Last year in RIFC I took Coleman very early, and then took a flier on Devonta Freeman in RG14 Keeper league. Needless to say the Freeman pick ended up a lot better for me. So this year, I kept Freeman in RG14, and took Coleman very late. I don't exactly want Freeman to go down, but this is insurance in the event that he does. I need some RB help, since all 3 of my previous RB have a week 8 Bye.

12.04 Jerrell Freeman, LB CHI
I don't often get a 3rd LB this early on in the draft. I just felt Freeman was a good value at this spot. Not sure how he and Trevathan will share the tackling, but this feels safe. I don't see good value or upside anywhere else at the moment.

13.11 Ryan Tannehill, QB MIA
Last year I was just about the last to take a QB, and his name was Ryan Tannehill. He wasn't terrible, but I ended up getting Tyrod Taylor also, which worked out pretty well more often than not. Anyway, there was quite a run on QBs taken since my last pick (5), so the backup QBs were drying up. Maybe I should have gone with Carr last round, but this will have to do.

14.04 Stefon Diggs, WR MIN
Diggs was a breakout candidate on a lot of lists, but then his QB went down. So, I think he sat near the top of the Available ADP for a while. With only 3 WR, and the 3rd being a rookie, I need to take another shot here. Even with XXX at QB (or now YYY), Diggs can still be a solid playmaker. Gamble with XXX, but I am feeling a lot better with YYY throwing him the ball--hope they can get on the same page quickly.
 
97TD
      Leader
      ID: 036331011
      Sat, Sep 03, 2016, 15:56
16.02Church, Barry DAL S
Church does not get many interceptions or sacks, but he gets a lot of tackles making him a top 15 fantasy DB the last few seasons. I expect more of the same this season.
 
98Philly Busters
      ID: 336352414
      Sat, Sep 03, 2016, 21:29
19.12 Calvin Pryor

Had 1 last starting spot to fill (besides K) in the defensive backfield. Everyone left at DB at this point starts to look the same. 60-80 tackles, 1-4 Ints, a sack or 2 thrown in for a few of them. Queued up 3 with 4 picks to go in front of me and Pryor was #1 on that list. Went with a young and improving safety on a strong defense. The weakness of the Jets D is the linebackers and that should lead to increased tackle opportunities in the run game for Pryor.
 
99twolves
      ID: 57491413
      Sat, Sep 03, 2016, 21:32
17.08 Conner Barwin DE

I had looked at him in the past and changes from 3-4 to 4-3 may help him. I may have waited too long to fill out this position and required some work to come up with a player with some potential upside.

18.07 Derrick Wolfe DE
After doing some further research probably should have drafted him last round instead of Barwin after looking at last years numbers and realizing he was not suspended. Since Barwin has a week 4 bye decided I would take him and watch to see how things evolve.
 
100Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 21723188
      Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 09:49
13.03 Theo Riddick, RB, Det
I knew I wanted another RB here. He had an unbelievable 80 receptions last season… That kind of production makes up for limited use in the running game and actually makes for more consistency when I might need to slot him in my lineup.

14.12 Tyler Eifert, TE, Cin
Quite a QB run as of late, but the ones I thought about (Osweiler, Cutler) had bye weeks the same as Cousins, so I looked elsewhere. Just checking ADP, Eifert has been on top of the list for a while, and it's time to get him. He may miss the first 4-6 weeks, but I can deal with that at this stage in the draft. He should be a good fill-in when bye weeks come about for my WR and TE.

15.03 Cameron Jordan, DE, NO
I scanned the roster grid (very useful feature on MFL…), and revisited the rules for starting positions (I got burned by this once a few seasons back, so made sure I understood how many starters are required at each position). Some managers had already started grabbing their second DL, while a few still had none. This tends to be a position that gets the thinnest, and the WW alternatives are not really there. Looking through who was available, I found 3 guys that were pretty equally rated - Jordan, Sheard, and Pierre-Paul. Somewhat of a toss-up, but I thought Jordan had the least uncertainty.

16.12 David Harris, LB, NYJ
It seems this guy always falls fairly low in these drafts - not specatular, but can be a tackling machine. Didn't feel great about this pick, but wanted to get a solid tackler producer with my third LB slot.

17.03 Brock Osweiler, QB, Hou
Ok, as I already said 2 picks ago, Osweiler has the same bye week as my main QB, Cousins. But, I'll burn that bridge when I get to it. I'll be more comfortable with Osweiler as a backup than any other options, so went ahead and bit the bullet.

18.12 Reggie Nelson, Oak
I peeked back at my draft from last year to see when I got a kicker - it was later. But, interestingly, round 18 is when I selected Doug Baldwin - who is a decent part of why I'm in the big leagues this year… so, no pressure with this pick. Looked first at WR's to see if lightning could strike twice, but realized neither Guru or twilson had any defensive backs, and I still had a starting position to fill there. (btw, I'm really digging the third pick for this reason - can often address my top two needs with each pair of picks...). Last year Nelson had 77 tackles and 8 picks - not expecting 8 picks again, but decent tackle numbers along with some big plays would be a good thing at this stage of the draft. He is getting up there in age, and is on a new team, so certainly some concerns.

19.03 Pierre Garcon, WR, Was
Just looking for a serviceable backup - should get that with Garcon. Hopefully his hands have improved since his days with the Colts.
 
101Philly Busters
      ID: 336352414
      Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 14:09
20.03 Cameron Heyward

As I stated in my "rationale" for picking Dante Fowler, I wanted a solid DL3 until I was sure about Fowler. Ironhead Jr fits that bill. He plays a high number of snaps and makes plays in the run game, gets a few sacks, and bats passes. Like most DL he has the occasional bust game but he's another DL who's career and production should be trending up. I like him and it makes for a better FF experience if you have players you like. Of course it helps to like players who can actually play! Hopefully he's over his high ankle sprain from preseason week 3. If not, Fowler will get to show his stuff week 1.
 
102TD
      Leader
      ID: 036331011
      Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 14:58
17.13 Wallace, Mike BAL WR S
When playing for the Steelers, Wallace was a top 20 WR for a few years. At 30 years old, I still think he has something left. With Steve Smith and Breshad Perriman injured and likely to miss the start of the season, Wallace will probably be the Ravens top receiver. I also think playing with Flacco instead of Bridgewater in Minnesota will help his stats.
 
103TD
      Leader
      ID: 036331011
      Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 15:03
18.02 Barr, Anthony MIN LB
As a rookie 1st round pick, Barr had 68 tackles, 3.5 sacks and an int in 2015. I think there is a good chance his numbers will be greatly improved in 2016.
 
104TD
      Leader
      ID: 036331011
      Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 15:09
19.13 Graham, Brandon PHI DE
Graham is a former 1st round pick who is moving from 3-4 OLB to his more natural position of DE. Being an Eagles fan I watched him during the preseason and I think there is good chanced he will have double digit sacks this season.
 
105TD
      Leader
      ID: 036331011
      Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 15:17
20.02 McLeod, Rodney PHI S
McLeod has improved his fantasy numbers in each of his 4 seasons in the NFL averaging over 6 fantasy points/game last year. I expect a little more improvement this year with the Eagles.
 
106twolves
      ID: 57491413
      Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 16:24
19.08 CJ Prosise RB

RB that looks like may play some as 3rd down back and passing situations. If he does well his role could expand as year goes along. Backup in Seattle but if injury to Rawls could put up RB2 numbers.
 
107twolves
      ID: 57491413
      Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 16:26
20.07 Mike Adams S
Added to my IDP as possible flex play during bye weeks as in past he has had good floor if healthy although not great upside.
 
108mmikulka
      ID: 257492917
      Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 20:52
15.04 DeAndre Washington, RB OAK

By this point, I was kicking myself a little for taking the relative safety of Forte over the upside of Rawls. I wanted at least one RB who is at least a tiny bit exciting, and Washington fits the bill.

As a Latavius Murray owner last year, I would not be shocked if he loses the job by midseason. Washington looked great during the preseason, and he may have already carved out a role as a complimentary back.

I now also own Washington in all 3 of my leagues: hopefully this turns out better than Forsett.

16.11 Vontaze Burfict, LB CIN

I’ve been targeting potentially elite players for my IDPs, since there should be plenty of depth on waivers. Burfict has been hurt a fair amount the last 2 years, and he will be suspended the first 3 games, but when he is on the field, his stats have been spectacular.

17.04 Jason Pierre Paul, DE NYG

More IDP upside. JPP was actually a serviceable starter when he returned last year, and now he’ll have a glove instead of a club, so maybe he can actually tackle people.

18.11 Austin Seferian Jenkins, TE TB

I already have 2 TEs, but neither are 100% healthy at the moment, so why not balance that out with a guy who might currently be a 2nd stringer?

Seferian Jenkins averaged over 8 points per game last year, and has always showed promise. There’s nobody else for Jameis to throw to besides Mike Evans, and Seferian Jenkins had 110 yards and 2 TDs in the only game he played before getting injured last year.

Obviously, there are a ton of negatives involved between his uncertain role, his lack of consistent results, his injury history, and even his relationship with his coach. But hey – it’s the 18th round and he’s my TE3.

19.04 Antoine Bethea, S SF

Bethea missed the last 9+ games last year, but he was a tackle monster the first 6 weeks, as he has been for his whole career. Hopefully the injury didn’t take much out of him and he’ll be back to normal.
 
109twolves
      ID: 57491413
      Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 20:53
21.08 Adam Vinitieri PK

Need a PK and he is one I like but never had in past. There was a run of PK taken including the one I was thinking about so decided to take one here. I think Indy will score more this season assuming Luck can stay healthy and he will have a season more like 2014 despite his age.
 
110s R
      ID: 4734262
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 07:06
11.09 Danny Trevathan, LB, Chi

Initially I wanted Harrison Smith here, but with Trevathan was yet on the board, picked him instead. He was perhaps the most productive two down linebacker in the NFL last season. I expect him to see a full complement of snaps in Chicago.
 
111s R
      ID: 4734262
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 07:18
12.06 Vincent Jackson, WR, TB

The reason I picked him is that Jameis Winston expected to improve in his second season.

13.09 Malcolm Jenkins, DB, Phi

Best available DB, I think. Jenkins bested his previous career high in solo tackles last year.

14.06 James Starks, RB, GB

If Lacy struggles as he did last season or misse playing time, he would see a lot of work.

15.09 Eric Weddle, DB, Bal

Weddle has been consistent throughout his career. So I trust that he can still produce top 10 DB numbers in Baltimore.

16.06 Mohamed Sanu, WR, Atl

The Falcons' pass-catching has very little obvious skill outside of Julio Jones, and the team has ranked in the top half of passing plays run every season since Matt Ryan's rookie year.

17.09 Robert Ayers, DL, TB

Ayers has been one of the most productive fantasy ends on a per snap basis throughout his career. Last year he ranked third in the category, behind Ezekiel Ansah and JJ Watt.

18.06 Cameron Artis-Payne, RB, Car

Jonathan Stewart didn’t have much competition in Carolina’s backfield. That may not be the case this season.

19.09 Clive Walford, TE, Oak

Walford was a prized prospect entering his rookie season until he was derailed by injury. Now he will be looking to build up some momentum.

20.06 Ben Heeney, LB, Oak

Heeney due to the lack of talent at the MLB position in Oakland, he was handed the starting reigns towards the end of last year.

21.09 Vinny Curry, DL, Phi

Vinny Curry should be one of the main beneficiaries of Philadelphia's newly installed "Wide 9" defensive scheme that heavily emphasizes defensive end pass rush and now he is in a full time role,






 
112Philly Busters
      ID: 336352414
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 09:00
21.12 Crockett Gillmore Bal, TE

I'm cautiously optimistic about this pick. He was under the radar and I planned on getting him late to allow me to address other needs besides backup TE in earlier rounds. When Watson went down, that opened the door for the full time starting role. He seemed to have developed a good rapport with Flacco last year before getting hurt. With the overall Ravens receiving corps being mediocre at best, he should see frequent targets on 3rd downs and in the red zone.
 
113TD
      Leader
      ID: 036331011
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 10:56
21.13 Bailey, Dan DAL PK
At this point in the draft, I felt the 1-2 extra points per game I would get from drafting a top kicker was worth more than choosing a backup who would most likely be off my roster by the end of the season. Bailey is one of the most accurate kickers in the NFL converting over 90% of his field goals in each of the last 4 seasons.
 
114TD
      Leader
      ID: 036331011
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 11:02
22.02 Garoppolo, Jimmy NEP QB
Because I drafted Brady, I also wanted Garoppolo on my roster. I plan to choose between Garoppolo and Flacco base on matchup for the first four games while Brady is suspended.
 
115TD
      Leader
      ID: 036331011
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 11:12
23.13 Conte, Chris TBB S
Surprised that this late in the draft, the top player on my queue, Tony Jefferson, was chose one pick ahead of me. Conte has good tackling numbers and averaged 7 fantasy points/game last season.
 
116Philly Busters
      ID: 336352414
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 11:38
22.03 Brian Cushing HOU, LB

Always looking to have lineup options, I like to start with at least 1 backup for every position except kicker. Since I'll almost always use a LB for Flex D, that means carrying 4 LBs. When healthy, Cushing has consistently posted good tackle numbers. I see him as a high floor, low ceiling option who will provide a reasonable fill-in score when needed during bye weeks.
 
117Philly Busters
      ID: 336352414
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 11:59
23.13 Tony Jefferson ARI, S

One last reserve position to fill before getting a K in the last round. Queued up 3 with Jefferson, then Trumaine Johnson, and undrafted CB. There were a lot of picks still to be made and I had no idea how many DBs would come off the board. Was pleasantly surprised that Jefferson made it to me and gives me 2 solid options for DB2 behind Vaccaro and good bye week coverage. Jefferson combines good tackle numbers with big play potential from the occasional pick or sack.

 
118Philly Busters
      ID: 336352414
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 12:01
Oops, correction on the last post. Jefferson was 23.12, not 13.
 
119TD
      Leader
      ID: 036331011
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 12:23
24.02 Jackson, Malik JAC DT
Jackson put up good numbers in Denver last season. I think moving to Jacksonville which runs a 4-3 defense will improve his numbers.
 
121Philly Busters
      ID: 336352414
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 13:03
24.03 Chris Boswell Pitt, K

Final round and time to get a kicker. Good accuracy in a high powered offense should lead to a lot of scoring opportunities. Just hoping they don't score all touchdowns!
 
122SwinganaMiss
      ID: 537471117
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 13:46
15.11 Adam Jones, DB CIN
He is a little knicked up with a calf injury, but hopefully he can get healthy enough to start the season and keep his PR/KR duties. He has really improved as a CB also, so even though he's getting old, he still has a lot of upside.

16.04 Jabaal Sheard, DL NEP
Sheard should be the top pass rusher on a team with the lead more often than not. So, he should see a lot of pass rush opportunities, and be a solid second DL.

17.11 Jared Cook, TE GBP
Cook has been a decent contributor, without the best QBs, for a while. Now his QB situation has much improved. I have waited a long time to get my starting TE. This is a bit concerning, but I am hopeful that Cook will be a top 12 TE.

18.04 Chris Johnson, RB ARI
My RB are still a little thin, especially in week 8. Johnson will be merely(hopefully) a bye week fill-in, unless something happens to David Johnson.
 
123twolves
      ID: 57491413
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 13:53
22.07 Josh Doctson WR

Still need WR and one of top rookie receivers in good situation. Despite injury, hopefully he will be ready to play sooner than later.

23.08 Avery Williamson LB

Filling out IDP with 3rd linebacker. I had hoped Clay Mathews would fall to me. I am hoping he can continue to build on last season.

24.08 Terelle Pryor WR

With 2 WR injured took a healthy WR who will get some play while Gordon suspended 4 weeks. I do have Cobb with a Week 4 bye.
 
124SwinganaMiss
      ID: 537471117
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 14:07
19.11 Javiorius Allen, RB BAL
The hours after Forsett was "released" were kindof fascinating. At the 18/19 turn, twilson snatched up both West and Dixon. I went ahead and cleaned up the last remaining head of this RBBC. Who knows what will happen when the dust settles. Allen probably needs an injury or another release to actually have enough value to start or maybe even hang onto. We'll see how it shakes out.

20.04 Steven Hauschka, PK SEA
While this draft was going on, I have been working on a lot of home repairs, as I am getting ready to sell my house. Prior to this pick, I was up until 2am or so, painting a large portion of the house. By 2am I didn't want to research the pick, so when I got up I just decided to grab the next best PK. I know I need one, and I still didn't feel like doing any research. Check off that box.

21.11 Ibraheim Campbell, DB CLE
Well, I only had one DB at this point, and he's listed as Questionable for week 1. I better find another one at this spot. The obvious ones are all gone. Campbell should start at SS for a defense that will spend a lot of time behind on the scoreboard. He should have a lot of chances to creep up and rack up tackles.

22.04 Nelson Agholor, WR PHI
Looks like he will be the #2 WR, at best, for a rookie QB. If he continues to struggle on the field, he won't be #2 for long, and won't be on my team for long either. I will hold out some hope on this one.
 
125Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 14:58
15.10 Sammie Coates, WR, PIT

Would have loved Will Fuller here, and almost took him with my last pick, but wanted a bit more of a known entity in Aiken given that I already had a untested rookie (Sharpe). Feeling that I had room for another high upside WR, Coates made sense here. Has shown the ability to be a deep threat, and hopefully slides into the Martavis Bryant role in the Pittsburgh offense. Could be a bit boom or bust, but if he shows any promise, and I can time it right, he could win me some weeks.
 
126Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 15:01
16.05 Mario Williams, DE, MIA

I still needed a 2nd DL, and there were two that I liked on the board. Sheard was one (he was drafted at 16.04) and Mario Williams was the other. Williams had a poor season last year, but most experts feel it was due to him being misused as an OLB in the Rex Ryan defense, versus having any kind of diminished skills. In Miami, he should move back to a pure pass rusher, playing opposite of Cameron Wake who should help to draw some protection away. I'll also like a lot of his matchups in the AFC East, against several teams who like to throw, and others with mobile QB's who are sitting ducks scrambling outside of the pocket. I think Williams should offer me a solid DL2, with the upside to be a top performer at the position.
 
127Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 15:06
17.10 Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, PHL

My roster has seemed to go from very shallow at WR to very deep, having taken WR's in 3 of my last 5 picks. Given that two of my WR's are fairly untested young guys (Coates and Sharpe) I thought I had room for another, and Beckham fit the bill. The hope is that out of the three young guys, one of them pans out, and becomes an every week starter alongside Demaryius and Evans. DGB has a ton of talent, and showed flashes of production in TN last year. At the time of the pick, he would have been playing with Sam Bradford at QB, in an offense that is likely to be playing from behind a lot. Since I chose him, the Eagles traded away Bradford, knocking DGB down a few pegs, as he'll likely be playing with a rookie QB, but hope he can put it together and be a productive player. If not, he's my 6th WR, and I'll have no problem cutting him loose.
 
128Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 15:09
16.05 Demario Davis, LB, CLE

After taking Keuchly and Bowman early, I decided to sit tight on filling out my 3rd LB, and to fill out my LB's with a lower tier guy with upside. Davis has had a few productive, albeit disappointing seasons with the Jets, but has been playing alongside a stellar DL, with a tackle hog at ML (David Harris). Now in Cleveland, Davis is playing in front of a weak DL, and without much help at LB, in what should be a three down role.
 
129Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 15:15
17.10 James Laurinaitis, LB, NOS

This pick was a mistake. When my 16th round pick came up, I set up a two man queue of Demario Davis and Laurinaitis, hoping to take one of the two. I selected Davis, but unknowingly must have transferred that queue to the 17th round, where I selected Laurinaitis as well. Oops. While I was planning on taking a 4th LB at some point, I was going to wait a few rounds, but I'm happy with Laurinaitis. He moves into a better situation in NO than he had in STL. In STL, he had a stud playing alongside of him (Ogletree) and a phenomenal DL playing in front of him, both soaking up a lot of tackles. In NO, he still has a young LB playing with him (Anthony), but a sieve of a DL in front of him. As long as he secures a 3 down role, which is likely, he should offer a stable option as a 4th LB.

 
130Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 15:19
20.05 Kyle Rudolph, TE, MIN

Because I waited on TE, taking Zach Ertz has my first, I had decided to draft a second TE in the event that Ertz doesn't produce. When Sam Bradford was traded to MN, I became a bit nervous about the thought of Ertz with a rookie QB, so decided to grab a TE that Bradford will throw too in MN, in Rudolph. Rudolph has been a guy that some experts have predicted to break out for a few seasons now, and never has. Perhaps this was due to playing with Teddy Bridgewater. If so, with a veteran QB now in MN, perhaps he can take that step forward that so many have predicted.
 
131Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 21723188
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 15:21
20.12 Paul Perkins, RB, NYG
Ugh. Had just setup a one-man queue of C.J. Spiller. And, naturally, Spiller goes at 20.11. The reason I had the one-man queue was that I didn't really have any other options in mind - back to the drawing board. Decided to keep with RB - still a lot of uncertainty in a lot of the backup situations as to what everyone's role will be. That's the case with Perkins as well, but as a rookie who put up very good numbers at UCLA, and is behind an aging starter, he has a lot of upside.

21.03 Tucker, Justin BAL PK
Picking towards the beginning, I decided to get a top kicker rather than waiting until the draft went all the way around.

22.12 Romo, Tony DAL QB
Depending what the Cowboys do, and what the actual rules are in our league, I may be able to stash Romo in an IR slot. If not, I'll just wait to see how he progresses in his recovery.

23.03 Boldin, Anquan DET WR
Where I really need the depth is on the defensive side of the ball (in that I don't really have any bench strength at all on D), but grabbing Boldin here to see if there is an opportunity for him to produce in the red zone in Detroit without Megatron.

24.12 Kerrigan, Ryan, WAS LB
Saw I was thin on defense, scanned available LB's and DB's and threw a couple in the queue. As a fellow Boilermaker, Kerrigan ended up on top of the list.
 
132Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 15:24
21.10 Jordan Howard, RB, CHI

After taking Derrick Henry in the 9th round, I've sat tight on RB, still having only 3 on my roster. Decided to add some depth with Howard. Howard has had a disappointing preseason, until the 4th game, but with a fairly unproven player in front of him (Langford) may find himself with a decent role. In the event that Langford gets hurt, or struggles, Howard appears to be the #2 option, and could also be a short yardage/redzone option.
 
133Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 15:27
22.05 Darren McFadden, RB, DAL

Let this pick be a lesson to "google" a player before you drafted him. I thought that with McFadden, I would be getting a decent handcuff to Ezekiel Elliott, but instead I drafted an injured player who will miss the first 6 weeks (at least) of the season. Luckily, we now have an IR slot, so at least he won't soak up a roster spot. In the event that Elliott gets hurt, or benched I'll at least have an option in week 7 and beyond. McFadden was very productive last season, scoring 10+ points in 8 of the last 11 weeks, so if Elliott doesn't realize his potential, McFadden may be useful.
 
134Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 15:30
23.10 Earl Thomas, S, SEA

I was still in need of a DB2, and had been sitting on 4 of 5 options that I liked for the previous few rounds. Figured it was time to take one of them, and settled on Thomas. Thomas has been fairly steady in the past, usually good for 5+ points. Not expecting a ton from Thomas, and will be keeping an eye on waivers for any potential breakout candidates, but hopefully he gives me some steady stats from a position known for ups and downs.
 
135Jaydog
      ID: 106132311
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 15:32
24.05 Tim Hightower, RB, NO

I'll finish the draft without a kicker, which is fine. Once I place McFadden on IR, I'll open up a spot to grab a kicker, so figured with my last draft pick I'd take a RB to replace McFadden. Hightower was great last season when Ingram went down, so I figured he was as good as any other depth option I could take here. If Ingram gets hurt early, I'll immediately have a really nice option that immediately becomes "start worthy". If Ingram stays healthy, I doubt I'll be able to hold onto him, but that's fine with my last pick.
 
136mmikulka
      ID: 257492917
      Mon, Sep 05, 2016, 23:37
20.11 CJ Spiller, RB NO

Slightly before my previous pick, the news of the Ravens cutting Forsett broke. A little bit later, and I might have been lucky enough to be on the clock. Unfortunately it was twilson up to draft, and he scooped up both West and Dixon.

Spiller helps provide a little more RB depth. It wasn’t that long ago that everybody was excited about him, and he is finally healthy (presumably in the best shape of his life too!!!1!). He’ll probably get hurt at some point, and his usage is a mystery, but they signed him last year to fill the Sproles role, and Ingram is their only other viable RB, so he’s worth a chance at pick 277.

21.04 Bashaud Breeland, CB WAS

I owned him as my 3rd DB last year in AAA, and I was looking at him in the 19th when I took Bethea. I’m a little distrustful of a CB putting up gaudy tackling stats out of nowhere, but when he made it back to me 28 picks later, I went for it. With a shutdown corner now playing opposite him, hopefully more action will be heading his direction.

22.11 Andre Ellington, RB ARI

What can I say? I like oft-injured speedsters out of Clemson whose stock has dropped massively over the past 2 years.

Ellington caught my eye because he’s going to be returning kickoffs and punts this year. If he can hold onto those jobs, he can become a viable fill-in starter with only a few offensive touches per game.

Who knows – Chris Johnson is getting pretty ancient and his resurgence last year may have been his last gasp.


23.04 Clay Matthews, LB GB

I still needed an IDP flex starter for weeks 1-3: while not likely to be top-tier, Matthews has been consistently solid.

If Matthews wasn’t around, I would have taken my preferred kicker (Boswell) rather than my backup LB option, who ended up undrafted.

24.11 Josh Lambo, K SD

With Boswell taken, I didn’t have any kickers who stood out to me. I decided on Lambo because I have relative confidence in San Diego’s offense, because I can see them struggling to close out drives with TDs, and because he has a late bye week.
 
137s R
      ID: 4734262
      Tue, Sep 06, 2016, 04:43
22.06 Clayton Geathers, DB, Ind

Geathers is a top sleeper right now at the DB position. He didn't get that much playing time last year, but was very productive when he was on the field.

23.09 Blair Walsh, K, Min

He was one of the best fantasy kickers last season.

24.06 Trevor Siemian, QB, Den

Bye week filler.
 
138twilson
      ID: 37573115
      Tue, Sep 06, 2016, 16:48
8.14 Carlos Dunlap, DL, CIN
9.01 DeAndre Levy, LB, DET

Mosley, Abdullah, and Reshad Jones didn’t quite make it back around, though I was only a half round short. That left me without a clear target at this pair of picks. Still plenty of relative value on the board, so I have possibilities.

It looks like I can wait again for QB/TE, and WR is completely off the table. IDP is a strong consideration. Though I’m done looking at DB for the time being, that still leaves LB and DL, both of which will likely be popular options in rounds 9-10. It’s either get in now or fall further down the tier list, especially at DL I think.

There are also a few more committee RBs remaining, led by Isaiah Crowell. It seems like the new coach Hue Jackson prefers Crowell to Duke Johnson as a lead back, which is not dissimilar from his recent years in Cincinnati with Hill/Bernard. The drawbacks are remaining uncertainty and the distinct possibility that the Browns will be among the worst teams in the NFL, which would significantly limit Crowell’s carries and upside.

I really like the idea of pairing two DL1s, so I researched the top names. Dunlap has been a DL1 since 2012 and a top 3 DL the last two years. Robert Quinn has the best non-Watt DL season ever to his name, but hasn’t been healthy enough to perform highly since. He’s supposedly good to go this year. Nobody else offers enough of a track record to consider. I need to see something on the field from Quinn before investing this high a pick in him, so Dunlap is the choice.

It was hard to settle on a preferred LB. Mosley was the last player to combine elite history/health/situation. I loved having Deone Bucannon on my team last year at DB, but he’s now classified at LB. There’s no denying his 2015 performance, but it is only one year. DeAndre Levy has the multi-year track record and minimal competition for tackles, but his knee has given him major issues of late. Posluszny was at another level points-wise last year, but potential increased competition and a declining skillset give me pause. Derrick Johnson is very reliable and one year further removed from a torn Achilles, but his 2015 was lacking in the big plays department.

I picked Levy to err on the side of ceiling, though now that I look back at it, perhaps Bucannon would’ve been the best mix of upside and health floor. No matter; I’m sure I’ll end up with three solid LBs by the end of the season regardless.
 
139Doug
      ID: 326332712
      Tue, Sep 06, 2016, 18:47
16.10 - Kenjon Barner, RB, PHI
This was my 4th straight "bench player with upside" pick... I pretty much just have some IDP and the K spot to fill (maybe a backup QB, though if Cam goes down I'm probably toast regardless). I'm looking at what's left at some positions like DL and it seems like (a) enough DLs have been drafted that not that many more will be picked, and (b) the production dropoff from a DL now to a DL at the end of the draft (even if 10 more come off the board) is minimal. I figure I can take one more upside pick and might as well make it sooner than later and leave those "mandatory" slot-filler picks to the end.

So... Barner... PHI has been singing the praises of this rookie... which is like, "of course they are"... but realistically it looks like he's in the mix to get some reps from week 1, and could be the primary if Mathews goes down. So yeah, why not take a boom-or-bust fantasy flyer on this guy, especially given Ryan Mathews history?

17.05 - Eric Berry, DB, KC
Seemed a safe/solid DB pick, I like his comeback story, and his bye week worked well for me. That's about all that went into it.

18.10 - Tyler Ervin, RB, HOU
Similar to Barner, a talented rookie who could get a chance to shine, but most likely only will be a fantasy starter in case of an injury to the real-life starter on his team. But this was my last chance for an upside pick, and wanted someone with true home-run potential.

19.05 - Demarcus Lawrence, DL, DAL
Time to flesh out the rest of my lineup... I have no DLs, and most of the rest of DLs available are expected to post similar numbers. Lawrence is suspended the first few weeks, but probably has better "points per game" projections than anyone else who's still available. Since I didn't get any top-tier DLs, I'm willing to sacrifice an early roster spot to have a chance at a better quality DL for the balance of the season.

20.10 - Sam Bradford, QB, MIN
Didn't have a backup QB, not many left, and felt he had the best potential to surprise and outperform the other QB bottom-dwellers. Definitely a bit of an unknown here, but at least he should give me some non-zeros during Cam's bye or in case of a short-term injury.

21.05 - Mason Crosby, K, GB
I mean, Ks are a crap shoot, but I saw bigger delta between him and the other Ks available than between any IDP who was left on the board. Also I was away a lot over the weekend and just wanted to set queues so I wouldn't have to worry about holding up the draft and we could get finished ASAP. At this point in the draft, it's a fool's errand guessing who other teams are going to target each round.

22.10 - Deion Jones, LB, ATL
Has taken over the MLB spot from Worrilow, could put up great numbers, but at a minimum should be solid as my flex IDP. Not bad for round 22.

23.05 - Stephon Tuitt, DL, PIT
He's an IDP who's bye week I liked and who was near top of my rankings for remaining DLs (not that there was much difference between them).

24.10 - Cameron Wake, DL, MIA
Again, just needed a DL I could plug in and was running off of queues... but looks like he has same bye as Tuitt who I got last round (whoops)... so probably will end up dropping him for a different DL before we even get to week 1! No big deal, it's round 24 anyway!
 
140SwinganaMiss
      ID: 537471117
      Wed, Sep 07, 2016, 18:02
23.11 Trumaine Johnson, DB LAR
I was needing another DB here. I have 2 so far, but not sure of the health of Pacman. I was deciding primarily between JOhnson and **undrafted**. Let's hope he is motivated for the season.

24.04 Tyrell Williams, WR SDG
I grabbed this guy in RG14 also. I must be too high on him. He can be Allen insurance or maybe more. The SD Offense should be pretty good through the air.
 
141twilson
      ID: 37573115
      Thu, Sep 08, 2016, 12:08
10.14 Tyrod Taylor, QB, BUF
11.01 Travis Benjamin, WR, SD

The 9th/10th rounds were remarkably focused on RB/DL/LB, with at least 7 of each taken. Only one QB (Cousins) and no WRs/TEs went. I liked Cousins, so that was a little disappointing, but I still essentially have my pick of the post-Rivers tier almost 37 picks later. Judging by the patterns established by the RIFC feeder leagues, I absolutely have to take a QB now, and doubling up is a very viable approach.

I like Winston, Taylor, and Mariota best. To my mind, they have the biggest chance of jumping into the elite tier. Stafford should continue to be useful, but I don’t see top five upside.

Jameis Winston has a pair of strong WRs and a quality backfield capable of catching passes. He has a year under his belt in which he was a consistently useful performer. Taylor and Mariota each missed a little time last year, but they were up around the 20 ppg mark when active. Taylor now gets a healthy Sammy Watkins for hopefully the whole season. Mariota’s Titans made major investments in the running game. While this will likely put a cap on his volume, it’s always good to be part of a strong offense.

Beyond QB, I expect there to be some key attrition at the skill positions. Christine Michael and Spencer Ware are talented RBs with clear routes to playing time in week 1. Due to other leaguewide focuses in rounds 9 and 10, there are a few WRs dropping below their RIFC ADPs. These are led by Travis Benjamin, Ted Ginn, and Devin Funchess. I’m a bit concerned about the quality of WR that will be available late. I’m not seeing anything like my 15/16/17 stretch last year of Lockett/Stevie Johnson/Marvin Jones. I could finally take my TE, but ADPs suggest that my next turn makes more sense for that.

I decided that Taylor was my top QB of the bunch. At the time, Winston was the #2, though I think I’ve come around to favoring Mariota since then. I have three starting RBs, so I think I’m going to pass on Ware and Michael to focus on cheap upside plays late. I don’t see much difference between Benjamin and Ginn; Benjamin’s role is more secure, but Ginn’s upside is higher. I’m down on Kelvin Benjamin, so opportunity remains in the Carolina offense. I don’t think I want to take the risk of missing on this tier, and there are later QBs I like, not to mention the chance that a Stafford or Mariota is around come #168. Thus, Travis Benjamin is the second pick.
 
142twilson
      ID: 37573115
      Thu, Sep 08, 2016, 18:29
12.14 Denzel Perryman, LB, SD
13.01 Dwayne Allen, TE, IND

Turns out that I was wrong at the 10/11 turn. Ted Ginn is still sitting there, but the full tier of quarterbacks I was debating is gone. The cupboard isn’t bare yet, but another shelf is empty. The interesting running backs were taken as expected. Only one tight end went, but it was someone that didn’t interest me. The LB spigot continued to flow, as always, but I still see some names I like. DBs are starting to be taken as well, but I think I’ll stick with my scrap heap approach.

My top QB is Ryan Fitzpatrick. He was an 18 ppg player last year, and his surrounding cast is basically identical in 2016. If anything, swapping in Forte for Ivory is an improvement for the passing game. Rustiness from his extended holdout is a bit of a concern, but I think it will ultimately have a minimal impact. Dalton and Matt Ryan are decent, but unexciting. If I choose to wait again, then I’ll likely be looking at a Flacco or Alex Smith, both of whom I view as viable choices.

For upside at LB, Denzel Perryman stands out to me. He was a low LB1 after the Chargers bye last year, and I’ve heard only excellent comments about his preseason performance thus far. Also, he has little meaningful competition for tackles.

I’ve had Martellus Bennett penciled in as my TE for a few weeks, but I’ve recently begun to have some doubts. His preseason has left something to be desired, and one beat writer is even speculating that he might be cut. Then there is the fact that he has to deal with Garoppolo for four weeks while Brady serves his silly suspension. The upside is still real, as Belichick has certainly been willing to feature 2 TEs in his offense when they are the best players.

Beyond Bennett, I’m looking at Dwayne Allen and Tyler Eifert. Eifert will most likely miss the first 4-6 weeks of the season, and there is no guarantee that he will be feeling healthy after that. No other player remaining can match his ceiling, though. Allen is a guy I’ve liked for a few years, and he did well the last time Fleener was unavailable. Allen’s main drawback is his propensity to get hurt; he’s already dealing with a minor injury as it is. I have late TEs I like as fliers too, if need be.

Perryman was a no brainer as one pick. The other was between Fitzpatrick and a TE. I decided that the dropoff at TE was a little bigger, so I consigned myself to a lesser backup signal caller. As for which TE to pick, I wavered back and forth, especially between Allen and Bennett. I went with the former Milchian Magician Allen, but it really was an either/or scenario.
 
143twilson
      ID: 37573115
      Thu, Sep 08, 2016, 18:55
14.14 Eric Kendricks, LB, MIN
15.01 Torrey Smith, WR, SF

Boy did I screw up the quarterback position this draft. I’ve kept picking skill position players I’m unexcited about and don’t view as unique instead of locking up a solid QBBC. Now even Flacco and Alex Smith are gone, quite unexpectedly, and I’m left debating RGIII, Brock Osweiler, and [undrafted].

Once again, I could’ve had Martellus Bennett had I waited. I still might pick him to form a TEBC. As I said in my prior rationale, Dwayne Allen’s health is far from a sure thing. LB and DB are other considerations, as I still need 3 IDPs to even fill my starting lineup. A few consensus low DB1s (Weddle, Cyprien, Church) are available. I like Eric Kendricks at LB; he entered the starting lineup with a bang last year, but faded to only decent scores after picking up a few nicks and bruises.

It wouldn’t hurt to have a 5th WR. Torrey Smith has often been fantasy relevant in the past, though not last year. He’s now on a team devoid of many other targets playing at Chip Kelly pace. Admittedly, they could be absolutely awful, but volume does have a certain value. Similar things can be said about Mohamed Sanu. There are targets to be had in Atlanta behind Julio Jones, and Sanu has had moments of relevance himself. Kenny Stills is an option in Miami, as he seems to be ahead of DeVante Parker in the pecking order, and that role was productive over 2015’s second half.

I started making decisions.
(1) No on DB. Hello in-season FA pool.
(2) Yes on Kendricks. Take the player I believe in and like.
(3) No on TE. There are others I like too.
(4) No on QB. Maybe I’m crazy, but I’m going to push it once again. Everybody has to stop taking quarterbacks at some point, right? If I have to rely on inseason FAAB or trades to fill a hole, then so be it.
(5) Torrey Smith is yet another WR that doesn’t excite me, but he’s the pick. A fantasy analyst I trust is a fan of his, and that’s enough at this point.
 
144twilson
      ID: 37573115
      Fri, Sep 09, 2016, 13:00
16.14 Robert Griffin III, QB, CLE
17.01 Alfred Morris, RB, DAL

I finally judged the QB market correctly. Third time is the charm, I guess! RGIII and Osweiler are the two guys I am considering as my QB2. Griffin is now four years removed from his solitary season as a QB1. I still don’t forgive Shanahan for putting him back on the field in that 2012 playoff game when his knee was already significantly damaged. Griffin hasn’t been the same player since. Now, though, he’s on a new team with a new coach known for maximizing the talents of his quarterbacks. He has a young, promising receiving corps and is playing behind a top offensive line. Hopefully, that will allow him to limit the punishment he endures and boost his confidence back to where he can be successful. It’s a bit of a longshot, but the possibility exists.

Osweiler landed in a pretty good position himself. It’s actually not dissimilar to what he had in Denver. Hopkins is better than Demaryius, but the mix of secondary WRs pale in comparison to Emmanuel Sanders. Both have a talented, if not completely proven, RB running behind a questionable line. With a full offseason under his belt as the starter, Osweiler could show some growth and threaten the low QB1 tier.

I think Griffin’s ceiling is higher than Osweiler, so he is the pick. As I said before, I can always look to a trade a few weeks down the line if need be.

For my other pick, I considered LB, RB, and TE. I think both Jared Cook and Charles Clay could be low TE1s. Cook has a good QB for the first time in his career and looks to be solidly ahead of [undrafted] for the starting job in Green Bay. Clay had a few good games last year and connected well with Taylor in the preseason. There is opportunity for someone to step up as a complementary receiver to Sammy Watkins in Buffalo.

Among backup RBs, I’m most interested in Chris Johnson and Alfred Morris. Both would be instant RB1s if David Johnson or Ezekiel Elliott get hurt, respectively. Chris Johnson has more of a chance to have occasional emergency starter value before that. I probably prefer Chris a little bit to Alfred, but his ADP is a little bit lower, so there’s a chance I could snag both if I go with Morris.

If I go LB, it will likely be a rusher. Melvin Ingram and Von Miller are both still out there with at least one LB1 season on their resume. I also find Mychal Kendricks interesting. He’s always been above 8 ppg and the Eagles look to be bad again. I know he’s in the doghouse at the moment, but it could just be a motivational tactic by the new coach.

I decided to grab a top speculative flier RB. I went with Morris in hopes of doubling with Johnson next time around. I think I can get a TE2 later on, and there is always another LB to fall in love with.
 
147twilson
      ID: 37573115
      Fri, Sep 09, 2016, 14:02
18.14 Terrance West, RB, BAL
19.01 Kenneth Dixon, RB, BAL

Ingram, Miller, Cook, and Chris Johnson were all taken in the interim. Charles Clay and Mychal Kendricks stuck around. They remain in the conversation.

I expanded my list to the next group of RBs and began to look at DBs. This was made difficult by the fact that I was interspersing my research with best man duties at a friend’s wedding. Thanks to his stretch run last year, Tim Hightower was next up on the list. Unless you think that CJ Spiller will become relevant again, Hightower is extremely well positioned for success in the event of an Ingram injury.

I also noticed that Justin Forsett got cut by the Ravens. I’ve been extremely wary of that backfield as it screamed multi-way committee to me, but this changes things. Without Forsett, the roles are a little clearer. Terrance West seems to be the guy to start, and Kenneth Dixon could take lead once he is back from injury in week 4 or so. I can’t totally ignore Buck Allen, but he seems to be lagging a bit. This news is enough to jump West and Dixon ahead of Hightower in my pecking order.

I decided on West as first pick because he has a chance to take the job and run with it. Then I debated Dixon vs Kendricks vs DB. I found a compelling enough case to take two shots at the Baltimore backfield, so that was that. Interesting skill player almost always trumps IDP with question marks and no personal attachment.
 
148twilson
      ID: 37573115
      Fri, Sep 09, 2016, 14:22
20.14 Charles Clay, TE, BUF
21.01 Chandler Catanzaro, K, ARI

No more Mychal Kendricks, but Clay is still there. So is Hightower, but I’ve met my RB quota at this point. Among other positions of note, the third kicker and a host of DBs went.

I have three open starting slots (DBx2, K) and two bench slots left to fill. My plan is to take a TE2 and either LB4 or WR6 for those. The top priority at the moment is to take stock of what is left at DB. It’s hard enough to do prep for that position given the frequent turnover and constantly changing defensive roles for many players, and doing it on a smartphone is even worse. I’m surprised to find that the other RIFC owners have done a better job of selecting DBs than usual, so I’m forced to dig a bit deep. After looking at 7 or 8 guys, nothing is standing out to me, so I make the call to postpone at DB one final time.

The LB4/WR6 pick will be one of my last two, so I’m left with TE2 and K. I suspect that kickers will start to go in earnest shortly after this, so taking my preferred option has appeal. Catanzaro has the best combination of offense and bye week, so he’s the guy.

My interest in Charles Clay is detailed in my 16.14/17.01 rationale. He has moderate talent, a rising QB, and an opportunity for role expansion. I also find Virgil Green quite intriguing. While he’s spent the first five years of his career almost exclusively as a blocker, he was known more for his pass-catching in college. He’s had a good camp and locked down the starting all-purpose TE job.

As much as I see the upside of Green, though, I have to side with the guy that already has two 13 target games to his name. Clay and Catanzaro are the picks.
 
149twilson
      ID: 37573115
      Fri, Sep 09, 2016, 15:10
22.14 Patrick Chung, DB, NE
23.01 Eli Rogers, WR, PIT

Wow, Guru managed to steal a pick from me in the 22nd round. I’m impressed! I wanted to draft TJ Ward because it looks like he will be playing some linebacker in nickel packages. I love safeties that get to play as close to the line of scrimmage as possible in fantasy. For full disclosure, I should also mention that I would’ve happily drafted Ibraheim Campbell as well.

Back to the drawing board. Nobody screams value to me, unfortunately. I honestly don’t remember all the players I debated, so I’ll just describe my pick. Chung is a veteran and should have a decent matchup in week 1. He’s more of a placeholder than anything, as I don’t see him as having a particularly high ceiling.

I failed to find a second DB to draft in my post-wedding state, so I decided to postpone the selection until I was in a better position to do more research. That meant I would be taking my LB4/WR6 at 23.14. I’ve been considering Mychal Kendricks since the 16/17 turn, so he’s the obvious choice at LB. At WR, I’m toying with the idea of Eli Rogers as a sort of handcuff. He has earned the slot receiver job in Pittsburgh and, more importantly, may have usurped punt returns from Antonio Brown. I would be very disappointed if this proves to be the case, but it means that Rogers has the potential to be viable in his own right.

This one could go either way, but I’d rather have an upside WR6 for the moment. If Brown keeps the punt returns, Rogers will immediately be back on the waiver wire.
 
150twilson
      ID: 37573115
      Fri, Sep 09, 2016, 15:17
24.14 Tavon Wilson, DB, DET

It’s tough to go into detail on this rationale because the other players I considered are by definition undrafted. Anyway, I will say that my search was wide ranging and ended up between Wilson and one other guy. I may even swap them, or Chung, before the season opener. As for Wilson, he is the new strong safety in Detroit. That is a role that has been occasionally productive in the past, but none of his predecessors have ever been a fantasy dynamo. It helps that he has a top notch last name. That’s as good a last word as any for this draft!