Hopkins: Zeke is still holding out. Every 12 hours there is "breaking" news that is not as breaking at all. He is still not in camp and in danger of missing week 1 or getting a reduced workload because he was not with the team. this moves him down my rankings. I also read an article that the last few guys holding out were injured during the season or played poorly. another sign to stay off Zeke, although he is still young and probably not that vulnerable compared to the others holding out.

So Hopkins it is. on most draft boards he is the #1 WR which usually goes at #5 to #7. so #4 seems like a reach but with the uncertainty of Zeke it is just about right for me. He will be the foundation of my team trying to get 1500Yds and 10 TDs.

I took #5 so that I would have my choice of players after the Big 4 were off the board, plus the small chance that one of the Big 4 would drop to me. This was not a difficult selection.

Elliott: Ezekiel Elliott’s holdout changed the context of this selection when youngroman went elsewhere at #4. I did my due diligence on Elliott and came away less convinced than some of the writers whose opinion I most respect. While this is the type of holdout that historically almost always get resolved, the Bell holdout last year has the feeling of an industry changer.

Putting aside the holdout, Elliott is my clear top player. I am not sold on the Arizona offensive line being able to create the time and space for Johnson to return to his former glory. Kingsbury is undoubtedly an upgrade on their horrible prior coach who religiously ran right up the middle on every first down for 2 yards, and I continue to believe in Johnson’s talent.

There are question marks about each of the other 1st round RBs as well. James Conner is talented and playing behind a great line, but he’s not quite at the level of Bell and the departure of Antonio Brown will allow defenses to concentrate on fewer threats. Gurley has been absolutely elite the past two years, but there is talk of a workshare to keep him as healthy as possible. I’m actually fairly bullish on Gurley maintaining the volume necessary to deliver top 5 value, but there’s no denying that his risk of injury is higher than the others. Nick Chubb was excellent in the second half last year, and the Browns have a real shot to win double digit games. I feel the risk of Kareem Hunt cutting into his carries after suspension is a bit overblown, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen.

Finally, I could take the best of the WRs – Tyreek Hill. Adding in his punt returns, I have him ranked above Hopkins and rivaling the Big 4 for value. While the numbers scream regression for Mahomes, I’m not convinced that it will happen, which would very likely mean another huge season for Hill.

Mixon: After 1.08 I had some time to mull things over. The running backs to consider were Johnson, Mixon and Bell. The Cardinals hope to run the most plays in the league, and Johnson will be a big part of that; however the OL is bad, and [undrafted] may steal some close-in touchdowns. Bell is an immense talent; but he's playing behind a much worse OL than he had in Pittsburgh, on a worse team with negative game scripts, has taken a year off, and is playing for a coach who doesn't want him and likes to split carries between his RBs and is already talkng about Bell's splitting touches with [undrafted].

Instead I listed the top 15 by my ranking. Managers selected players not on mtblist and as a result I missed Kelce by 1 pick and missed Mahomes by 2 picks. I wound up book end WRs: Julio Jones and Odell Beckham, easily 2 of anyones pre-season top 5 receivers. No complaints. That deep in the draft I was not expecting top tier RBs. I expected to get quality players and that is what happened.

Four WRs are on my list – two I owned last year (Thielen, Lockett) and two I did not (Cooper, Allen). I was a happy owner of both Thielen and Lockett and am perfectly willing to go back to that well. Thielen was a clockwork WR1 throughout the first half but finished the year with a tough stretch. I haven’t been able to find any explanation for the swoon, so it was probably just a bit of regression to the mean after an unsustainable level of success. I think he’s capable of returning to that level, or the new run-focused OC in Minnesota could lower his ceiling. Lockett had drastically unsustainable TD and yd/target rates last year, but he’s in line for increased volume with the retirement of Doug Baldwin. It seems that Lockett will likely continue his involvement in the return game, which is a requirement for him to be worth a pick quite this high. As negative as his regression trends are for receiving stats, I think he will have better punt return success in 2019 to partially offset the downsides.

Amari Cooper had a great run with the Cowboys after being traded. While lumpy from a game-to-game perspective, I’m much more concerned with overall performance. Points are points, regardless of the week in which they happen. He’s dealing with a bit of a foot injury now. I never enjoy adding active injury risk in the early rounds if the upside isn’t clearly worth it. Keenan Allen has a 1400 yard season on his resume, though the touchdown totals have never been elite. Very talented player, solid team/offense/quarterback. Dealing with a minor injury that doesn’t really rise to the level of concerning, though it is something to note.

There was a break heading into the 3rd round and I had time to contemplate my options before heading off to church. There were two RBs I coveted – Aaron Jones (3.01) and Chris Carson. I figured it was safe to leave a two-man queue, becuz there was no way anyone was going to pick Carson before me. During the last few weeks I've watched his ADP move up from mid-4th to early-4th to late 3rd to mid-3rd – but surely not this high, I thot.

I was, of course, wrong, and Carson went at 3.03. Kerryon Johnson, who I might have thought of, was gone too. Devonta Freeman (3.07) has the same bye week as Mixon, cutting him out of the picture. Marlon Mack (3.09) was one of the victims of Luck's sudden retirement.

Josh Jacobs is this year’s 1st round rookie RB. Most analysts are skeptical of the Raiders, and I can understand why. I don’t think David Carr is anything more than a competent starting quarterback, which puts a clear cap on the team’s ceiling. With that said, Jon Gruden has a history (though aged at this point) of bellcow RB usage. Talk throughout camp has suggested that this is a real possibility, despite the presence of 68-catch Jalen Richard on the depth chart. If Jacobs is a true bellcow, then he would be a clear value at 3.10 even if the Raiders are terrible.

David Montgomery is the other rookie RB being hyped by both analysts and his coaching staff. The Bears have generated RB successes previously, and the team is quite likely to better than Oakland. He won’t be a bellcow with Tarik Cohen in town.

I spent an inordinate amount of time comparing the revised projections for Golladay and T. Y. Hilton, In 3 separate projections they came out about the same.

Golladay is a controversial selection this year, largely due to doubts, not about him or his QB so much, but about the offence in general and the head coach.

Hilton could very well do much better than projected, with a better OL, Head Coach, and maybe a team spirit that says “We'll show them”. He was definitely a steal at 4.11. But I believe that Stafford is still a skilled QB, that Golladay is an up-and-coming talent, and the Lions' prime target between the twenties.

I’m very much done with RB for a while after committing to two in the first three rounds. WR is the traditional direction to go, along with TE. I do like the trio of Howard/Engram/Henry to show growth with another year under their belts. All are in good positions in their offenses and look to play on most snaps. Howard is my favorite, as I feel he has the best combo of past performance and increased snaps. There’s risk in going with a Bruce Arians TE, but I think Howard will be an exception due to his talent and pedigree. Arians is a creative enough offensive mind to make the best use of his top threats. Engram has the highest floor of the three, as the departure of Beckham leaves the Giants with a limited cupboard. I continue to have QB concerns that knock Engram’s ceiling down below his peers. Henry requires the greatest level of projection due to his missed year, but he’s also a high draft selection with demonstrated red zone target volume. He’ll get his, it’s just less certain than the others.

Cooper Kupp, TY Hilton, and Calvin Ridley are the best of the WR bunch. Ridley was very dependent on touchdowns for his rookie fantasy success, but he’s in a similar position to the TEs regarding pedigree and performance. There will be growth in season 2, but how much? He still won’t be playing every snap. Kupp was a WR1 last year prior to his ACL tear. He’s the best red zone target of the Rams receivers, but is he really 100% recovered? Camp talk has been uniformly positive, but there’s always a tendency to overpraise in those situations. Hilton would already be off the board right now if not for the retirement of Andrew Luck. His projections certainly take a hit with a new quarterback, but how much? It should be an improvement over 2017 given his improved surrounding cast, which puts him firmly in the conversation at this point.

I like Engram, but his ceiling is not super enticing. It does still exist, but would require either unexpectedly good QB play or a jump in talent level that is by no means guaranteed or even really suggested. IDP would mean picking one amongst a lot of similar-looking stud LBs or committing to an elite DL at cost. I’m a bit torn between Aaron Donald and Khalil Mack. WR means betting on continued development from DJ Moore or a healthy season from Sammy Watkins. Again, nothing really screaming value.

Shortly thought about a 3rd WR but the options are not very tempting. on the defensive side LB's usually get the focus early on. since only a few were taken till now I am assured a top-5 LB. with 1 pick to go I settled on either Kuechly or Deion Jones.

I thought about taking a 2nd LB, but the available ones are plenty so I saw no reason to pick one.

This can't be said about WR. teams 1-3 already filled their starters and 8 out of 10 of the other teams still need a #3. my expectation is that some of them would have thinned the pool even more, so I better take one now than too late.

If I don’t go for Jones or David, then Cory Littleton is the next name up on my list. An undrafted free agent who got his first chance to start last year, he managed to put up a healthy 10.5 ppg season. Littleton had a good mix of tackle volume and big plays, which is conducive to continued elite performance in this format. I don’t like that his track record is so short, but he’s in the same role in the same defense.

That leaves me to talk about my own pick, which is much less interesting for me. Still not liking the values. Not a good spot for TE. 2 stud LBs is too much of a luxury unless I feel compelled by a player, and that’s not the case here. I like a bunch of guys, but nobody is an absolute slam dunk value.

I do still like a decent number of WRs. Looking at the other RIFC leagues, I should be able to catch one at the other end of the turn. RB? Some options, but nothing screaming my name. We’re getting close to the end of the names that have a good chance to start the season with 50%+ of their backfield. I could always lock down my starting DL pair. Calais Campbell is pretty reliable and in a good situation in Jacksonville. Justin Houston has been reclassified to DL. He was a long-time target of mine at LB at his peak who has been impacted by injuries much of the last few years. He’s healthy for the moment, and replacement level is a lot lower at DL than LB. Houston’s ceiling is DL#1, which I can’t say about Campbell. ADP suggests that I have a reasonable shot to take Houston at my next set of picks, but that is far from a guarantee, and I will be throwing players at the wall to see if anything sticks if I miss out on both of these guys.

trying to fill starting slots. The offense is pretty much set, so I better take a defense player. I am not a fan of picking a DL or DB early, so LB is my preferred choice. my queue from the start of the round included Bush and Mosley. Toral took Mosley, but Bush was still there.

I also have interest in a collection of receivers. Curtis Samuel came on strong late last year despite Cam Newton’s severely diminished arm strength and has obvious room for additional growth due to his lack of lifetime experience at the position. Returning from an Achilles injury is usually difficult, but analysts keep talking about how healthy Emmanuel Sanders looks in camp. Like Kupp, if Sanders is back to full strength then he will be a solid value in the 9th round. Dante Pettis was hyped all offseason given his strong conclusion to 2018 and the return of Garoppolo, but now there are mixed messages coming from his coach and the local beat writers. I still believe in his talent and think he will have a major role on the 49ers, though there is a bit more risk than I would have thought a month ago.

I have a better explanation now than I did when I drafted Winston anyway. Fantasy Pros sent out an e-mail yesterday listing 11 players who could win your league Winston was the top QB listed. Their reasons? "Winston may have the best weapons in the league. Not just that, but he now has Bruce Arians calling the plays, a very weak running game, and a horrendous defense."

Alexander has two question marks – injury history, and new team. He’s only played 18 games over the past 1-1/2 seasons. But in those games, he’s averaged 10 ppg, and that’s not an average that’s skewed by a few outliers. He’s only 25, so age is not the issue. And although he’s coming off an ACL tear, he is suiting up in preseason.

Tony Pollard went 13.01, 14.01, and 14.07 in the other RIFC drafts. That means that this pair of picks should be the right spot to take him and ensure I get my Elliott handcuff. Outside of Pollard, I think it’s finally time for my WR3. Larry Fitzgerald is the dropper by ADP. He may be old, but his intelligence and technique enable him to produce when given the right opportunity. Kingsbury may be the man to do so. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the WR2 in Wisconsin and now has a year under his belt. If he can hold onto it, that role under Rodgers frequently generates starter-quality point totals.

I fell back on an old research standby for this pick: RIFC ADP droppers. By that measure, Fitzgerald and Jordan Howard are the values. The Miles Sanders hype is probably the cause of Howard’s fall, and Fitzgerald is an old vet on a team that hasn’t been performing in the preseason. Neither of these seems like a deal breaker to me, so I’m very open to halting the drop for one of them.

If I want to go in the direction of high upside, Darwin Thompson holds substantial interest. It will be painful if I don’t own any part of the outstanding Chiefs offense. Damien Williams does not have the track record or pedigree that would prevent demotion, and analysts I trust believe that Thompson has the skill set to make this happen. He’s not a player I can trust to deliver bye-filler weeks, but one can’t win a league without upside.

I still see a number of LBs I’m interested in owning. Matt Milano, Vontaze Burfict, Jerome Baker, Zach Brown, Fred Warner, etc. I could probably find reasons to prefer one or two over the others with some in-depth research, but I’m not in a position to do so. The WR isn’t yet devoid of talent. DK Metcalf should be a starter in Seattle as a rookie, and my 2nd rounder Lockett has never been a top volume guy. I don’t love that he’s been dealing with a soft tissue injury. John Brown is coming off a renaissance year that I always believed he was capable of having, but he’s now a Bill, which puts a cap on his upside. DeSean Jackson is back in Philly and remains a super fast and talented guy. His occasional punt returns help in this format.

Finally, I could grab a TE from the remaining pool. When I passed on the top 6, my next plan was to take Delanie Walker at around this point, but he went two rounds ago to Chucktaylors. The pool of players I like has continued to shrink to where Greg Olsen is my clear top name. His general ADP is solidly lower than this, but the benefits of delay are now limited enough that I think others won’t hesitate to pull the trigger if they feel similarly. Tree and I are the only owners still without a TE, but I’m concerned that teams who waited until recently will double up in the coming rounds.

Kirk Cousins has been a QB1 pretty much ever since he’s been starting, which feels like a bargain at QB#17. He did finish out last year on a downward swing; more concerning, though, is the new coaching staff’s repeated emphasis on the run game. Cousins may not get the same volume as in prior years. Matt Stafford has been similarly productive during his time in Detroit – 6 QB1 years out of 8. The Jones/Golladay pairing is far from the worst of his career, but he’s being drafted as an afterthought after an injury-filled 2018. His ceiling is unexciting, but he’s undervalued for sure. Jimmy Garoppolo is the last name I would seriously consider, other than maybe an extremely cheap upside bet on Sam Darnold. Garoppolo was hyped in the Shanahan offense prior to his lost 2018, and that promise still exists despite a rough preseason.

I wasn’t really in the market for a backup QB yet, but when I saw Brady still available, I thought that it would be comforting to have him in the bullpen if Mahomes goes down. Of course, at his age, Brady is probably more likely to be injured – but barring that, he’s about as dependable as it gets. Still, he’s likely to average 8-9 points less than Mahomes, so if I have to rely on Brady for any week other than the Mahomes bye, it will be a very tough season.

As discussed in my round 13 and 14 rationales, I really like Matt Milano to push through the 9 ppg barrier. He performed at an 8 ppg pace last year before his injury and is now in line for a full complement of snaps for a team that continues to be below average. I especially like his ability to accrue TFL.

I still like a number of TEs on the board, which is a strong contrast from last year that I was yet anticipating. Jimmy Graham is going super cheap after only scoring two TDs last year. Darren Waller is being talked up in Oakland in the role that elevated Jared Cook to fantasy starterdom after years of being a tease. Hockenson is being talked up by an analyst I respect, but I’m so skeptical of rookies at this position that I will go elsewhere unless both Graham and Waller have been taken by others.

Among the next group of receivers, I think I can make a strong case for Keke Coutee. His rookie year was frequently limited by a recurrent hamstring problem, but he still managed 50+ targets in only 6 games. Coutee has an excellent quarterback throwing him the ball, and Houston’s lead RB is already out injured for the full season. He’s frustratingly dealing with a meaningful ankle injury of his own, but hopefully will be ready to contribute come week 2 or 3.

It’s time to start thinking about what I want my roster to look like from a positional perspective when all is said and done. I have 9 picks left. A kicker, 2 DBs, and a LB will fill out my starting lineup. For the other five, I want one more each of LB/WR/TE. That leaves two extra picks that can be whatever I want. Having failed to acquire Pollard, I won’t be owning a handcuff, as Jacobs’ role will become RBBC if he is unavailable. If possible, I want to find an IR-Return player with the upside to contribute once healthy.

At DB, I like the Adrian Phillips/Derwin James combo, which would fill my IR slot and give me a pseudo-LB from a secondary slot until James returns. Phillips and Derwin went in the 19th and 20th rounds of AAA#1, respectively, so that gives me a sense of timeline if I intend to ensure dual ownership. The Phillips portion is more important because his production is concrete rather than speculative. Beyond that pair, Von Bell will get a full complement of snaps in New Orleans, [undrafted] will be his occasionally productive pseudo-LB self, and Reshad Jones is a former stud that didn’t play at an elite level last year. The big question with Jones is why. Was it injury, dissatisfaction with the franchise and his contract, role in the scheme, or something else? Miami should again be really bad, so there will be tackles to be had.

Among the WRs, I like Albert Wilson in Miami. He’s fantastic after the catch, and seemed to be coming into his own at times last year. Owning a piece of the Dolphins offensive pie isn’t generally exciting, but Wilson could get the target volume to display his elusiveness on a grander scale.

Adam Humphries is a starting WR in Tennessee who may be returning punts. That’s a classic RIFC combo for late round WR steals. Quincy Enunwa may not participate in the return game, but he’s a former 100 target guy who again finds himself a starter, ahead of the more talked about Jamison Crowder. There’s reason to believe that Sam Darnold will grow in year two, and Enunwa may be able to deliver steady production as a result. It’s not clear to me which Jets receiver will be the real winner. Then there are the rookies with upside but a lack of clear role: AJ Brown in Tennessee, and Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin in Baltimore.

LBs and TEs are still nearly the same as what I described in my 12th round rationale. Vontaze Burfict, Zach Brown, Fred Warner, Jimmy Graham, and Darren Waller are all on the table. Add in Jamie Collins, [undrafted], and [undrafted] for good measure and you’ve got yourself a group.

I can also take a backup IDP. There are a few [undrafted] young LBs that look to be in three-down roles for the first time, but I’m having a hard time choosing amongst them. Von Bell is the option if I go with a safety, but that’s not a position that requires a rostered backup to start the season.