I decided to favor general comfort level and value rather than make another likely futile attempt at predicting the draft board and picked slot #10. I regretted this choice when I realized my other two leagues have me at #11 and #12, limiting my cross-league diversity.

Adams: Aaron Jones at #9 was the last of the RBs I felt comfortable with as a 1st-round anchor. Unfortunately, my Plan B was Travis Kelce. That left me with a choice between the WR#1 and Jonathan Taylor. The Colt has an injured QB on his second franchise and a banged up offensive line, but there’s a real chance everyone will be healthy by Week 2 or so. He’s very talented, especially when behind the full-strength Indianapolis offensive line. We all saw Taylor’s ceiling in the latter weeks of 2020, but he likely remains limited to 1st- and 2nd-down work.

I see the top tier of WR this year as generally similar to 2020. Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill cemented their places at the top and were joined by Stefon Diggs in his new digs. Tier 1B is extremely deep and promising as well; I have my favorites, but I can’t justify them over these three.

I already own Adams and Diggs in another league where Hill was already off the board. I like Adams better than Diggs due to lengthier track record and QB. Hill and Adams is closer, but I’d rather have a target monster than a big play machine all other things being equal. I don’t really mind owning Adams twice.

Adams vs Taylor is tougher because I strongly expect to go WR in Round 2. I don’t feel a need to force RB, but I also don’t want to put myself in a position where I can’t take advantage of a value at WR later on. That’s why Kelce was my non-RB preference.

I was hoping Kelce would be available here, but my backup option was to take a top WR. I would have probably gone with Davante Adams if twilson hadn't taken him. I debated being a contrarian and drafting Ridley here, but I figured he could potentially still be around 7 picks later. Best QB of all time and #1 overall pick in AAA#2 Pat Mahomes was also under consideration.

Hill is very productive on a per-target basis: last year, he turned the 8th most targets per game into the 2nd most fantasy points per game, and he was over 3 points per game better than the 3rd place WR.
-The Chiefs lost their WR2 in the offseason
-They still have a ridiculously good QB
-They still have one of the best offensive minds of all time as their coach
-They still are likely to have a mediocre defense

Taylor: This year I don't want to go RB/RB as I sometimes do, as there are 9 bye weeks where we will need only one RB. Yes, we will need two for the playoffs, but how likely is it that a back chosen now will be left standing and producing by then? I checked, and of the 16 RBs drafted in the first two rounds last year, only 6 were in the top 16 RBs over weeks 14 to 16.

That said, I don't mind picking 1 RB in the first two rounds. As the draft approached me, I became fixated with the desire to avoid picking Joe Mixon (2.01), as I did last year, It's not that I don't like Mixon, it's his coaching staff. To quote Sean Ryan “If Mixon doesn't clear 4 yards a carry on his first two starts you can count on him disappearing from the game plan.” Besides, his name rhymes with Nixon so he may be bad luck -- why didn't I realize that last year?

In the 7 games where the departed WR played fully, Ridley was on pace for 123 targets / 1,143 yards / 9 TDs

In the 8 games where the departed WR was absent, Ridley was on pace for 178 targets / 1,748 yards / 10 TDs

Hopkins has been elite for a long time and has now done it on multiple teams. He has a promising sophomore QB throwing to him and good surrounding talent to prevent the defense from devoting all their attention to him. He’s still in his athletic prime.

Justin Jefferson put up one of the best rookie seasons ever last year. His offense and surroundings are mostly unchanged. It’s unreasonable to project growth after a season like that, but I do think his targets will be closer to 160 than 125, as he was on that pace in the second half. Factoring in an efficiency drop, I will be happy with a similar fantasy outcome, though an overall WR#1 season cannot be ruled out.

Shortly thought about WR's but there are too many in the same group still available. I guess lots of them will go until I am up again, so hopefully one of the WR's I like is still there at 3.13

I was hoping that either Edwards-Helaire or Robinson would slip to me. I would have probably preferred Edwards-Helaire: his lack of goal line carries is troubling, but within the Chiefs offense, speedy and elusive players like CEH have plenty of paths to solid TD totals. People are bitter after he underperformed expectations last year, but those were sky-high expectations. I can't think of any post-hype sleeper that has had this high of a floor.

Montgomery rewarded those who bet on his volume last year with increased efficiency and a #6 overall RB season (directly followed by Robinson and Jacobs, for what it’s worth). Not only did his ypc increase, but an injury to his backfield mate opened up additional opportunities in the passing game. He now has a new QB (or two) that may unlock further teamwide improvements, but it’s reasonable to expect 2020 to be the high-water mark for Montgomery’s raw volume.

Josh Jacobs was my first-round pick last year at 1.11, and I feel like he earned back that value. He would be long gone had the Raiders not signed [undrafted] to a considerable 2-year contract, threatening Jacobs’ status as the unquestioned lead back. I think the signing caps his upside by eliminating passing down work, but I still expect Jacobs to get 250+ carries as the early-down back. That’d be more than enough to justify a 3rd-round selection.

Last year, Swift missed 3 games and averaged less than 50% of the snaps in the rest... and still managed to finish as RB 22 by total points and RB 23 by points per game.

Swift got more playing time toward the end of the 2020 season, and during his final 6 games he was on pace for 1381 yards and 13 TDs (for a 16 game season).

I’m definitely not going WR3 here, especially with Cooper and Lockett off the board. I could go TE, but I hate forcing that position rather than letting a value fall to me. The same is true for QB. Mike Davis is my top RB, but I’m not 100% certain that the Falcons won’t bring in veteran competition once roster cuts begin around the league. If they don’t, he should solidly outproduce 4th-round value.

While I am loath to take an early QB, Lamar Jackson is the most likely path to a multi-ppg advantage left on the board. Just 2 years ago, he was 6 ppg better than anyone else, and 3 ppg above last year’s top QB. Though a disappointment compared to expectation, Jackson’s 2020 was still that of a solid QB1. He’s still rushing, still healthy (other than his COVID stupidity), and still quite young. Can’t say I love his receiving corps, but there are multiple paths back toward the heights of 2019.

Despite my criticism above, Mark Andrews is my top TE. He’s a top-4 TE two years running, and as noted, I have some optimism about increased passing volume in Baltimore. I do have some interest in Kyle Pitts despite the rookie TE pit because I view him as Atlanta’s WR2 more than TE1, but I’d rather pay for proven performance than potential when reasonable.

After having survived the banzai delay in round 3, I now have two of the next 6 picks – before a long wait. I figure that a RB and a receiver are appropriate targets, as I only have one of each.

With Hunt gone, Edmonds looks like the best RB option, even though he is likely to be part of a time-share. Looking at last year’s results, he doesn’t appear to require high volume to get decent production. Capable as both a runner and receiver, and only age 25. And frankly, I’m not seeing any other obvious candidates at RB – although I expect they will continue to be in high demand over the next few rounds. So waiting isn’t likely to help.

Jones was picked at 4.14

I thought hard about Leonard. He went at a similar pick last year, but I don't know where IDP's will go this year and thought that I would be fine with any of the top 10 at that position which should still be out there at 6.13 and/or 7.02

Valuable TE's are tough to find on waivers during the season. I decided that I want one of the better TE's this year so that I don't need to search there in case my usual gamble does not live up to his projections.

Hockenson is the last of the “safe” TE tier, but he falls in between Andrews and Pitts in risk. It’s fair to assume continued growth for 3rd-year TEs, but making him the pick here bakes in a moderate increase to match value. His role is safe and target volume should be there for the taking, but Detroit is likely to be among the worst teams in the league, limiting TD opportunity.

I still need a second RB, but I don’t see enough separation to avoid the short turn when three of the four teams already have two. The WR pool is deep and mildly appealing, so now’s not the time.

As for IDP, Darius Leonard has been the #1 LB on a per game basis since he joined the NFL three years ago. His only blemish is a tendency to miss a game or three every year. The Colts obviously agree since they just gave him a record 5-year contract extension. I don’t think there’s anything more I have to say about him.

The other IDP under consideration is Devin White. After a so-so rookie year, White more than lived up to his lofty draft position in 2020. He had 15 TFL in the always aggressive Buccaneers scheme and is still only 23 years old.

There are still more than enough WR hanging around that I see no reason not to wait and let others thin the herd for me. The same is true for LB and DL, especially now that I have my LB1 anchor. That leaves RB2 and DB as my two possible directions.

San Francisco projects to have one of the best teamwide rushing attacks, so both Trey Sermon and Raheem Mostert are of interest. The trick is figuring out how/if the carries will be split between the two of them, both in the early weeks and at the end of the season. I already own Sermon in both of my other drafts, and I doubled up with Mostert in one of those (best ball format). Not sure I want to expand my exposure even further, but I’m not completely opposed.

Though I’ve historically shied away from investing substantial draft capital in the Patriots running game, the recent trade of Sony Michel appears to lock in Damien Harris as the primary ball-carrier. There’s no chance at bell-cow status given Belichick’s offensive proclivities, but this role has often delivered RB2 value in the past.

Budda Baker is the other name in the 2-man elite DB tier. He has consistently performed at or above 9 ppg for three and a half years, and Arizona continues to lack an entrenched LB that would limit his opportunities. If I’m avoiding the bargain bin at DB, now is likely my last opportunity.

Don't want to pick my 3rd WR that early. Too many equal options out there. I am happy with almost any of them.

Did not want to pick a backup RB this early, although there are some intriguing options.

So I better stay ahead of the pack and pick 2 LB's this turn. my queue to go into these 2 picks is Schobert, Kendricks, Warner.

Let’s focus on DL for a moment. There are only a few guys who have a history of breaking 8 ppg, chief among them Joey Bosa and Danielle Hunter. Hunter is supposedly healthy after his neck injury last year, but I’m always concerned about anything spinal in a football player. Joey Bosa dealt with his own litany of injuries last year, but he still managed 8.5 ppg when he did play. A fully healthy alternative is Chase Young, who put together a respectable rookie season. There’s good reason to believe in a performance leap in year 2, but a pick in the 7th round requires it.

In 2019, Tannehill put up 22.2 points per game as a starter: 2nd place only to Lamar Jackson. I think that most people (me included) assumed that he would regress heavily toward who was with the Dolphins. Maybe Adam Gase is just bad at coaching, because Tannehill finished the 2020 season 7th in total fantasy points: ahead of Brady, Herbert, and Jackson. On a per-game basis, he fell slightly behind Herbert and Jackson, but his 21.4 points per game put him in the same tier as them (and Russell Wilson).

Obviously we all know how amazing Michael Thomas's first 4 seasons were. During last year's catastrophic season, Thomas was still on pace for over 1,100 yards during weeks 9-14 even though he was only on the field for about 70% of the offensive snaps.

My favorite WRs on the board are Michael Gallup, Laviska Shenault, and Antonio Brown. Gallup was a consideration for me last year at 6.04. He obviously had a down year with the absence of Dak Prescott and emergence of CeeDee Lamb, but I still like the talent, and I remain confident Prescott can support three fantasy-relevant WRs. My opinion of him isn’t that different than it was last year.

Shenault played well as a rookie and has had a good camp. The Etienne injury should ensure that he gets regular work in the running game as well, which I feel is sometimes an underrated quality. There is a lack of clarity about which of the three Jacksonville WRs will get the largest target share. I don’t count myself any different on that front, but all three should be very involved.

Until his self-inflicted fall from grace two years ago, Antonio Brown was the surest thing in fantasy football. 5 straight seasons in the top 2 at his position. Maybe more in this format given the punt returns! I’m not going to check that right now. He showed well at the tail end of 2020, earning a healthy target share despite the surrounding talent, and everything I’ve heard out of camp suggests that should be his floor. The sky’s the limit for his ceiling. I don’t own him yet this year, and I’d like to.

IDP's are slowly coming off the board. Only 2 DB's are gone until now, but I expect some more to get drafted until I am up again. Most likely all the top DB's will be gone until then, so I better take one now instead of picking a 3rd WR or RB.

I slurped the Hardman hype last season and drafted him in round #5 as my WR2 (and 27th WR picked overall). He ended up as the 40th ranked WR in total fantasy points (and #58 in ppg). Six times he produced 5 fantasy points or less, only exceeding double digits three times. Not so fine.

Many analysts expect a growing role – or at least a growing opportunity – for this this year, even though Kelce and Hill will be the clear target hogs. He also seems to be penciled in as the lead KR/PR this year, which could potentially add 30 pts to his receiving tally, assuming he keeps that role all year. In round 9, as the #39 WR drafted and my WR3, I feel like I have a more balanced risk-reward. And, although I’m not drinking their koolaid, footballguys consensus has him ranked as the #13 WR, including projected return yardage. That provides enough upside to take the plunge. But I do fear that I may be banging myself upside the head by mid-season.

I’m not interested in the RBs after Mostert, so looks like I’ll be using my most typical RB build. I’m going to wait some more at TE with Higbee gone. If I go offense with this pick, it will be Gallup. As for IDP, the talent is dropping off more quickly at LB than DL right now. After sifting through a lot of names, my top options are Deion Jones, Alex Singleton, and Patrick Queen.

Jones is a consistent 9 ppg performer, and he’s popped elite half-seasons a couple times. He’s been around for a while, but Jones is still just 26. There is more competition for tackles in Atlanta these days than in the past, but I see no signs of a meaningful decline.

Alex Singleton has traveled a very different path than most to NFL success. Exemplary CFL results earned him a shot in Philadelphia, and when the starters fell like dominoes 1.5 seasons in, he turned in a half season of 11.5 ppg results. After offseason departures and a strong preseason, his starting role looks quite secure. I thought he’d be more of a sleeper this year, but I’ve seen him occasionally going much earlier than I expected (and not just to Eagle fan Judy). If he’s clearly my preference here, I might have to just take the plunge now.

Patrick Queen could be a good reason to wait on Singleton. The 1st round pick put up 8.5 ppg in his rookie season with only about an 80% snap share, along with generally positive reviews of his work. Though it’s not guaranteed, and this weird preseason has made projecting playing time even harder than usual, there’s a real chance the Ravens will make him an every-down player. If so, and if he maintains his pace of production, Queen can push or even exceed 10 ppg.

I already drafted a top LB, but Queen was a killer value here, so I went with my heart and made a gambit. During his rookie season, Queen only played 80% of the snaps and was absolutely terrible, and yet he still finished as LB#20. The tackle opportunities are clearly there (in spades!), and Queen will again be the most versatile and valuable chess piece for the Ravens’ defense.

Thus, this pick becomes more about roster build. And for me, roster build usually means DL. I don’t enjoy playing in the FA pool for linemen, especially compared to the other IDPs positions. The talent pool is so much shallower.

No Buffalo RB has been taken yet. I, like most, have had a hard time choosing between the two this year. A few weeks ago, I preferred Zac Moss, but of late I’ve been leaning toward Singletary. The most likely outcome is a balanced timeshare. At minimum, both will have value as good bye week filler, and if one gets hurt, the other will have RB2 value.

I could also sacrifice some present value for higher injury upside. Pollard was recently taken, but AJ Dillon and Alexander Mattison remain as clear handcuffs to strong RB1s. I usually like to wait and let others thin the herd before I swoop in and grab the cheapest high upside handcuffs, but this top tier do have a little extra value as desperation bye week filler that the dregs do not.

I could also bet that the Brady/Gronkowski connection continues to blossom in year two of the Buccaneers experience. There’s good reason to think that Tampa can soar to new heights with a greater comfort level across the board, and Gronk could very well be the beneficiary. Thanks to the NFL grind, he’s not the player he once was, but elite tight ends often age well.

Jared Cook is another seasoned veteran who has refused to fade into obscurity. 2020 was not a banner year for him thanks to the physical decline of Drew Brees, but he now finds himself in Los Angeles with the hottest young QB that west of Kansas City. Camp chatter has not been universally positive due to the rise of a young challenger, but I still expect Cook to carry a starter’s load.

Having now filled all my starting slots other than DB1/2, LB3, and K, this becomes a depth-building pick. I don’t think any of the available RBs offer enough flex value to justify RB4 at this point. I can dip my toe into the WR pool for the pseudo-starting WR4, or I can grab my LB flex. Both positions should see consistent attrition from now through the end of the draft. A cursory look at the top LBs reveals no standouts, so WR is the appropriate direction to go.

Marvin Jones is a longtime favorite. In the past five seasons, he’s been at worst WR#46 by ppg, with two years as a WR2 and one as a WR1. I’d be drafting him here as WR#51. Jones is on a new team with an uncertain role, but I expect Jacksonville to use a lot of 3WR sets. He’s also gotten a lot of positive press in preseason, which never hurts.

DeVante Parker is another underrated performer in recent years. After a slow start to his NFL career, he improved his skills and became a quality talent. 2019 was obviously the high point with a WR1 finish. I don’t expect that level of outcome, but it’s certainly within the range of possibilities. I have some concern that the additions of Waddle and Fuller will reduce his role.

A former WR (still WR eligible in some formats), Johnson clearly has receiving ability. He has been getting rave reviews in the preseason and is supposedly becoming a favorite of Jameis. He might not start the season as the Saints TE1, but it seems like he will run the most routes regardless.

Shaq had a disappointing 2020 season, and I am chalking it up to 3 main issues:
1) An abnormally high percentage of assists (64 solo / 52 assists)
2) 0 sacks
3) Jeremy Chinn

I value Tyrell's likely target share: Detroit's receiving corps is a wasteland, and they will probably have to throw a lot this year. He has massive opportunity and a previous 1,000 yard season, but he is also coming off 3 years of "meh" and doesn't seem likely to put up a monster season even with a ton of targets.

Amon-Ra is a rookie and therefore we don't know his ceiling. It's easy to have dreams of him being this year's Justin Jefferson with such limited competition. He even has a shot at adding some return yards. If I had read anything at all positive about him this training camp or preseason, I may have gone with him, but he seems to have been generally underwhelming and will need to earn his way to becoming the WR1.

If Tony Jones is in fact the Saints RB#2, he will likely be a useful backup for me even without an injury. The Saints' RB2 has averaged 959 yards over the past 5 years, and Jones looks more explosive than Latavius Murray, Mark Ingram, and Tim Hightower.

I waited the longest to draft TE and DL, which tend to be the lowest-scoring positions on offense and defense. For DL, there are 60+ starters each week, with many options available on the waiver wire. Statistically speaking, some of those will become useful every year. For TE, there is a much smaller number of players who could conceivably have a role, so I might as well take a another shot at one.