1 | DWetzel
ID: 33337117 Sun, Nov 22, 2009, 11:41
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I'm not a gambler, but I think I can get close on this one:
Assuming you're 50/50 on each of your last two games, your EV for the parlay right now is:
25% * 0 = 0 50% * 100 = 50 25% * 2000 = 500
total $550.
If you put X on the Giants today, then:
50% = X + $50 (you win your Giants bet, plus half the value of the $100 parlay depending on Monday night) 50% = $1000 - X (you lose your Giants bet, but then the parlay is worth half of $2000).
Seems like if you bet $475 on the Giants you would be at $525 EV either way.
So, do that, then:
If the Giants bet wins, bet $50 on the Texans; you either win your $50 bet or lose your $50 but win $100 on the game bet, net +$50. Total net +$525.
If the Giants lose, you are down $475 on the Giants bet, but your parlay is alive. Then you bet $950 on the Texans, and either lose that bet but win your parlay (net $1050, total net $575) or win the Texans bet and $100 for your parlay (net $1050, net $575).
This isn't exactly right and doesn't account for your vig on the bets, but it should get you in the ballpark.
I ought to be able to get everything to $550 exactly if I was thinking clearly, but well, I'm horribly stuffed up and Nyquil is good. Besides, it's more fun to sweat the extra $50.
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