Forum: hoop
Page 12089
Subject: RIHC 2006-07: Draft Rationales


  Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Fri, Oct 13, 2006, 14:03

This thread will be for managers in the RotoGuru Invitational Hoops Challenge to provide the rationale for each pick.

Here are the ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.)

2. Try to keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information. In particular, please avoid mentioning the names of any players who are still undrafted at that time of the post.

Please post your comments at the time you make your pick. For example, you should post your comments for your round 1 pick when you make your round 3 selection. The best practice is to post your rationale immediately before making your next pick. If you are not ready to post at that time, then create a "placeholder" so that the next person is able to go ahead in sequence. When your post is ready, simply post it in the current draft discussion thread and I can copy it over. Please do NOT post your rationale in this thread if it is out of sequence.

The general format should be:
1.01 Kevin Garnett, F, MIN
Several sentences of rationale.

If your rationale is due and intervening placeholders have not been inserted, please insert them before posting your rationale. For example, create a post that says:
For Guru
1.08 Dwyane Wade, G, Mia


As a part of your first round rationale, please comment on your choice of draft order as well.
 
1RecycledSpinalFluid
      Dude
      ID: 204401122
      Fri, Oct 13, 2006, 18:55
1.01 LeBron James, G, CLE

Draft Position: Flipped between 1,3 and 7. Only real reason for 1 is I can't recall ever having it. I seriously think I would take the 3rd slot in hindsight, but not because who has been taken, but I think it fits my overall goals better.

Selection: LeBron James. After deciding to go with the first pick, it really only came down to LeBron or Kobe. I doubt there are many high level drafts going that LJ isn't the first pick. The biggest factors in taking LeBron over Kobe was edge in boards, dimes and percentage. Kobe still has "upside", but LeBron's trumps his. Atworst, I see getting an average of the last two seasons from LeBron.
 
2Hoopsklyce
      Leader
      ID: 040625911
      Sat, Oct 14, 2006, 09:01
1.02 Kobe Bryant, G, LAL

Thought about trading down since I was concerned with Kobe's recovery but decided against Mikes offer since I would need to give up in the 9th in addition to swapping. The idea was to do what Dilligad did - take Arenas in the middle of the first round.

I look for Kobe to provide plenty of points. I will try to draft some players later on who have value other than points to compensate. Hope to get 'lucky' with Kobe's recovery from July surgery.
 
3Mike D
      Leader
      ID: 41831612
      Sat, Oct 14, 2006, 09:01
1.03 Kevin Garnett, F, MIN

I really liked my initial draft spot of 7. However, I was on a 48 hour crash course to prepare for this draft. When the opportunity to swap 1st and 2nd round picks arose, first with Klyce at # 2, then, with Mike V. at # 3, I really wasn’t overly tempted. But I couldn’t resist, and offered that swap but with a minor 9th round swap on top of it. I figured if they really didn’t want to trade down they’d reject it and I’d be fine in my original spots. Klyce blocked my offer into the rafters, but Mike V. caught it and dunked it.

KG gives me outstanding consistent production in many categories. I felt he would be the backbone of my team, and I could sit back and relax while things unfold (and while I continue my cramming). Points, Blocks, Boards, good percentages, steals, and a decent amount of assists…….KG is a “steal” (lol) at # 3 and arguably could have gone # 2. After things unfold, I’ll have a better read on whether this trade was genius, bonehead, or just a deal to get my foundation in place. I also considered Shawn Marion here, but am a little concerned about him duplicating his numbers with Amare back.
 
4Swish City
      Dude
      ID: 0931275
      Sat, Oct 14, 2006, 09:02
1.04 Shawn Marion, F, PHO

It took swings and roundabouts to end up with The Matrix here. Originally, we took the 4th slot, with the intention of trading down to about 7th or 8th for a shot at either Brand or Arenas, and a better 2nd round pick. That didn't work out, and we then hoped that Kobe might slide to us given his knee rehab issues. Hoopsklyce put pay to that theory early by taking him at 2.

So we ended up with Marion, who was realistically who we projected would be left. Whilst Marion doesn't have the "blow me away" numbers of a Kobe or LeBron, he does offer the all around production that is nigh on impossible to find in most players. He particularly excels in rebs, steals and FG%, and is one Sun whose numbers will not be affected by the return/non-return of the man-child.
 
5skinneej
      Leader
      ID: 040625911
      Sat, Oct 14, 2006, 09:04
1.05 Dirk Nowitzki, F, DAL

Last year I had the 4th pick and knew either Nowitzki or Marion would fall to me. I took Marion then, but would have been happy with either. The same was the case this season, but with the 5th pick, I thought I may not get either one. I figured Kobe and Wade were going to be the two players I was going to have to decide between. Kobe is coming off minor knee surgery and Wade has an ongoing hand issue, so both were a little scary in the first round, but I was leaning towards Kobe. When Kobe was taken 2nd, I had the great position again of getting one of the same two players as last season. With Marion taken at #4, I get the big Dirk this year. It’s hard to imagine him being able to improve much more, but his production should at least match last year which was incredible.
 
6Uptown Bombers
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Oct 14, 2006, 10:30
1.06 Elton Brand, Forward, LAC

First, why I chose the sixth spot to draft. I had five guys ranked at the top and then another four ranked closely together. I took the sixth spot, rather then the ninth in case someone slipped. In actuality, I was hoping that Dirk would fall to the sixth spot. That all hinged on whether someone would take Wade higher than I had him ranked. Once the other qualifying leagues began drafting, I got excited, seeing that Wade went high so as to bump Dirk down to me. Of course this didn't happen, as the first five picks were my top five.

Of my next four players, I had Brand ranked the highest. The only other player I considered was Arenas. In the end I opted for Brand. I especially like targetting blocks early on from players that do not hurt you in the other cats. Brand does this, as well as contributing across the board except for 3PTM. While his Ft% isn't great, he makes up for it with a stellar FG%. Brand was also on my team last year (though I stole him at 2.09) so I am familiar with what to expect - a consistent 20 and 10, with loads of blocks. Oh, and he's also one of my favorite players! As a long time Duke fan, its always nice to add a former Devil onto the squad for rooting ease.
 
7MikeV
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Oct 14, 2006, 10:56
1.07 Gilbert Arenas G WAS

I chose the #3 pick in hopes of getting either Kobe or Lebron. With those choices gone my top rated player was Wade. The recent reports of a potentially continuing right hand problem scared me. My next highest player was Arenas. Figured I could get him much later so started looking for a trade. Had to give up 4 spots in round 9 as a bonus for trading 3 and 22 for 7 and 18 but that's getting into crap shoot territory so why not. I also see a significant drop off between my 18th and 22nd rated player. Picked Arenas so the plan is good so far.
 
8Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Oct 14, 2006, 10:58
1.08 Dwyane Wade, G, Mia

When selecting draft position, 1-7 were gone, and 8-12 were available. I figured that the top 8 players drafted would be (in no particular order) LeBron, Kobe, Garnett, Dirk, Wade, Marion, Arenas, and Brand. I thought that any of those 8 was a cut above the 9th, and if picks 1-8 weren’t available, I might have taken the 11th or 12th spot. I figured – actually hoped - that either Arenas or Brand would be the one to survive to the 8th pick. Arenas would give me a head start on scoring and steals, while Brand would give me a head start on blocks, a category that I’ve lagged in the past several years.

So I was a bit surprised to have Dwyane Wade turn out to be the one sliding to pick #8. I guess his hand injury has discounted his appeal somewhat, although he did play 20 minutes on Oct. 10, so I’m assuming that’s a favorable sign. I think a healthy Wade (if there is such a thing) should rank in the top 5, so I’m content to take the risk.
 
9coldwater coyotes
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Oct 14, 2006, 18:29
1.09 Steve Nash G PHO

Nash was the best available player. I would have preferred any of
the first 8 picks but I am not unhappy to have the MVP on my team.
With Amare back Nash's assists per game could well go in the
teens.

The first pick sets up how the next four or five picks will have to be
considered. Taking Nash means that I now need to focus on
points and rebounds/blocks.
 
10Florian
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Oct 14, 2006, 18:30
1.10 Chris Bosh C TOR

I had the choice of picking 10th or 11th in the first round. I chose 10th hoping to get Nash, but coldwater picked him up with the pick before mine. I had planned on picking Bosh if Nash wasn't available, but felt I could probably pick him up several picks later. I attempted to trade down, but lionprideguy wasn't available. After waiting for several hours I picked Bosh. Bosh has improved in pts, rbs, assists, FG% and FT% every year he has been in the league. I hoping that trend will continue. I'm hoping for 25 points/game, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 51% FG% and 83% FT%. He likely get me 50 steals and 100 blocks. Bosh has apparently been working on his shooting range and is now comfortable shooting 3 pointers. He had none last year, but was averaging one per game over his 1st two preseason games. If he gets 50-100 3PTM this year it would hugely increase his value. And I have one of those two centers positions filled.
 
11lionprideguy
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Oct 14, 2006, 18:30
1.11 Paul Pierce F BOS

I hate Ben Howland.

Now, I’m not a UCLA fan at all and have heard lots of stories around town here that he’s just not a nice guy professionally or around the basketball offices at UCLA, but this doesn’t have too much to do with hating the Bruins as a team for this particular statement.

See, Thursday I was sitting at one of the front tables at the Wooden Tip-Off Luncheon at the LA Athletic Club, listening to each of the college basketball coaches in Southern California talk about the upcoming season. And Ben Howland is up on the podium, a few feet away from me, and my cell phone start vibrating. I look at the number and it’s one I’ve never seen before, and can’t decide whether I should get up and find out who is calling, but it’s also my job to be the staff person at that table with our LMU alumni so I need to stay and just check it later. Of course, Howland goes on for a while and the lunch ends late, and I walk out after the luncheon an hour later and finally get the message, and it’s Florian offering a trade – picks 10 and 15 in exchange for 11 and 14.

Heading into the luncheon there was one pick ahead of me. I’d knew I’d take Bosh without hesitation if he was there, and I didn’t know what I would do as a second option if he wasn’t. By making the trade I could guarantee getting the player I wanted, and thought I could catch either Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, or Chris Paul on the turnaround a few picks later - perfect. I called back as fast as I could, but unfortunately was just too late. Florian had understandably moved ahead with the pick since he hadn’t heard from me in an hour, and even more painfully, took Bosh right ahead of me. I hate Ben Howland.

Anyway, about Paul Pierce. I didn’t have a certain #2 fallback after Bosh. I looked at Pierce, Ray Allen, Kirilenko, and Chris Paul. I settled on Pierce because of his obvious all-around game. No one category he dominates, but does them all well and none that he hurts you in at all, which is the best you’d want for a pick this late in the first round. More ast/reb than Ray Allen and two years younger, less of an injury risk than Kirilenko, and slightly better #’s overall than Chris Paul right. I debated each one, and it would have been fun having Chris Paul for the second straight year. In the end, I guess it’s the old rationale – you can’t win a roto league in the first round, but you can lose it, so I went with the most safe all around player. Not exciting, but at least very dependable, durable, and consistent for the last few years, and still in his prime.

 
12Footwedge
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Oct 14, 2006, 18:31
1.12 Chris Paul G NOR

Paul. One finally fell to me. I love his game, thinking the Hornets additions will give him slightly better numbers this year.

2.01 Andrei Kirilenko F UTA

Kiri was more of an all-around pick. I was afraid of Yao after having him last year. Big men with feet problem just scare me. Was tempted by AI but went with the blocks.
 
13lionprideguy
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Oct 14, 2006, 18:31
2.02 Yao Ming C HOU

Already drafting injured players isn’t a good sign. I kept trying to get more updated information, especially since the toe infection and surgery caused Yao to miss 25 games last season, he had the broken foot, etc. There certainly were other worries – his huge numbers at the end of last season were put up while T-Mac was out, who is claiming to be 100% healthy again this year. There simply aren’t enough shots to go around with McGrady shooting 21.5 times a game when he’s healthy. Add in a few other offseason pickups and I was genuinely worried about Yao getting enough touches to warrant this pick.

However, it still was too hard to ignore his post-break stats last season: 25.7 PPG, 11.6 RPG, 1.8 BPG, and 53.7% FG 88% FT. Wow, that’s monstrous. With all we’ve heard about his name for so many years before coming to the NBA, it’s easy to forget last year was only Yao’s third in the NBA, and he still seems to be improving and adjusting to get better. Many people still have the memory in their head of Yao plodding around his rookie year which isn’t the same reality anymore. My reasoning was that even with McGrady back, that kind of dominance he showed in the second half last year is too much for the team to ignore and not continue to take advantage of. It was the time that Yao seemed to finally begin to understand how to dominate a game, and the Rockets would be crazy not to exploit the advantage he gives them. Locking down one of the center spots on my roster with a big man who shoots 85% from the line was big too, and I wouldn’t have to worry about stretching too far for a center in the next few rounds.

For alternatives, the closest player I almost drafted was Ray Allen. We all know his strengths, but I was nervous about starting out with two guards in Pierce and Allen for my foundation and not picking again for 20+ spots. Allen’s 3’s and FT% are awesome, but we know he’s also unimpressive in some other spots. If I had Chris Bosh (Grr, Howland) I would have picked Ray Allen in a heartbeat. Since Yao has a high FT% as well, Allen’s one category dominance of 3’s didn’t seem as good for me as Yao’s strength in rebounds, blocks, and FG%. I also considered McGrady as a high risk/reward pick, and kept seeing the quotes about how good he’s feeling, but it seemed too risky since my next pick wasn’t until #35 overall if he did have his back flare up, as it always seems to. I would never root for a player to get injured, but since we know it’s a possibility for McGrady, if it happened Yao’s value would only go up even more, while T-Mac’s would fall. Guaranteeing a first-rate center is another safe decision, plenty of time to be stupid later.

 
14Florian
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Oct 14, 2006, 18:32
2.03 Ray Allen G SEA

I was quite happy to see Allen still available at this spot. I don't expect this year to be significantly different from any of the last three or four year. I still expect Allen will lead the league in 3PTMs (although not by last years margin of 70) and significantly help my team in FT% (90% last year), points (23-25 per game) and steals. Allen will contribute in rebounds and assists as well and for someone who shoots as many 3 pointers as he does won't hurt my team FG% much (shot 45.4% last year).
 
15coldwater coyotes
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Oct 14, 2006, 18:32
2.04 Allen Iverson G PHI

I had planned to pick Bosh or Yao Ming with this pick and I had
not expected Iverson to fall so low but obviously there is some
hesitation about his attitude to the game. In the last few years
all the top point guards were quick to be taken. This year the
perception seems to be that there is a shortage of top PFs.

Iverson gives me PPGs which I was missing with my first pick of
Nash. I now have two of the top PGs which was not in my intial
plans.
 
16Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Oct 14, 2006, 18:33
2.05 Chauncey Billups, G, Det

I was really hoping that one of the guys already taken 9-16 would have fallen to this pick, but no luck. I would have taken every single one of them before Billups.

I considered a center, but I just can’t get comfortable that any of them warrant a pick this high – not even Duncan - and I think I can still get a viable big in round 3 or 4. If I’m going to do that, then I want to get a point guard here. Billups is coming off his career year, so I might be buying high here, but if I can get something close to last year’s stat line, then he’s good value.

I did strongly consider Carmelo Anthony, as he should still be on the statistical upslope – although I don’t know whether last year’s 48% FG shooting can hold up, and if it doesn’t, he doesn’t provide much in the non-scoring stats to compensate. Still, he was a tempting option.

I had Billups last year, too, although he was a 4th round pick then. That certainly worked out well! Hopefully, the good karma will persist.
 
19MikeV
      SuperDude
      ID: 25924115
      Sat, Oct 14, 2006, 22:44
2.06 Carmelo Anthony, F, DEN

I was hoping that Bosh, Ming or AK would still be around at #18. Expected Guru to take Anthony, my #11 ranked player, and I'd settle for an aging Duncan. When he took Billups I opted for Anthony knowing that I would get another pick in only nine places and there should be a very good big man still available.
 
20Uptown Bombers
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Oct 14, 2006, 23:28
2.07 - Tim Duncan, Center, SAS

My initial thought after drafting Brand was to look for a solid guard with this pick, but once my pick approached, I looked more seriously into Duncan. Honestly, I didn't think he would be available here, knowing how valuable centers are in these leagues. While he obviouly had a down year last season and struggled with his foot injury, everything I have read says that Duncan is ready to bounce back big time. He is supposed to be 100% healthy and had the summer off for the first time in along time. Hopefully that translates into production more reminiscent of years past, where Duncan was a lock for the first round.

Taking Duncan allows me not to worry about the center position again for awhile, unless someone slips way down (unlikely). Together with Brand my team is off to a sound start in rebounds and blocks. Obviously, Duncan brings with him a horrible FT%. This is something I will have to deal with during the rest of the draft, as Brand is not a strong FT shooter either.
 
21skinneej
      Leader
      ID: 040625911
      Sun, Oct 15, 2006, 00:08
2.08 Jason Kidd, G, NJN

This was an unusually tough pick for me in the 2nd round. Originally thinking I might get a guard in rd 1, my pre-draft plans were to look big here. I thought maybe one of the three centers (Duncan, Yao, Bosh) could fall to me. Duncan’s numbers have fallen the last three years, and the concern is the trend continues. Yao was excellent last year, but again there is a concern with the foot/toe. Even with the concerns, I would have taken any of the three had they fallen. Unfortunately they didn’t, but since I took Dirk in rd 1, I shifted my focus to the guards.

The short list I came up with after rd 1 was Iverson, Allen, Kidd and Billups. Allen, Iverson and Billups went all in a row early in the round and I thought I may not get any of them. I figured Guru was targeting Iverson, and after he was taken, Billups was a good 2nd choice. I was leaning towards him over Kidd anyway. It looked like Duncan might make it to me, so if Kidd was taken, I’d just go big, take a center and look for a pg in rd 3. Little Timmy was snatched up right before me, so Kidd was the obvious choice I believe. Kidd is getting older and has had injuries over the years, but he seems to either play 80 games or about 65-70 looking at his recent career. I am hoping this is an 80 game year.
 
22Swish City
      Dude
      ID: 0931275
      Sun, Oct 15, 2006, 13:47
2.09 Tracy McGrady, GF, HOU

A lot of people evidently don't think that Mr. McGrady can play enough games in a season. However there comes a point when you cannot ignore a guy who was top 6 talent as recently as 2 years ago. He played 78 games in 2004-5, and there have been encouraging comments from TMac himself saying his back is 100%. His solid preseason thus far would seem to back (groan) that up. Given that he had a career low FG% last year, we're expecting a return to the 27-6-6 days of the "old" TMac. Given the new cast in Houston and having more room to operate, it looks like TMac's primed for a big year. We'll take that at pick 21.

I've said it before, and i'll say it again - we love multi-cat contributors, and from that perspective, you get a little bit of everything from this guy (3s, steals, pts, ft%, rebs, even nice blocks for a GF). Welcome back TMac. EuroGollum are keeping the faith, even if no one else will.
 
23Mike D
      Leader
      ID: 041831612
      Sun, Oct 15, 2006, 19:09
2.10 Joe Johnson, PG/SG, Atl

This second round pick was acquired in the deal with Mike V, and made me wait a few picks longer than my initial slot. I could have gone many directions here, but it finally boiled down to Joe Johnson and Jermo. I loved Jermo’s center eligibility, and pairing his stats with KG would be a huge head start in some categories. Ultimately I chose JJ because he contributes in so many cats AND could be slated for improvement over last year’s breakout season. That’s a scary thought. His PG/SG helps a little too. It may have been a tad early to grab him, but I didn’t think he’d be on the board when I came knockin’ in the 3rd round.

I was considering TMac until thankfully the Euros took him. I was also considering Vinsanity.
 
24hoopsklyce
      Dude
      ID: 0931275
      Mon, Oct 16, 2006, 05:04
2.11 Vince Carter, GF, NJN

I took Carter as the best available player although I was not necessarily looking for a player who scores as much as him since I had Kobe already. I like the fact he can play G or F and think he should continue to play at a high level this season for the Nets. Similar to Kobe he contributes in many categories.
 
25RecycledSpinalFluid
      Dude
      ID: 0931275
      Mon, Oct 16, 2006, 05:06
2.12 Mike Bibby, G, SAC

Was targetting a PG in this slot, thinking Billups might slide, but he went pretty quick. Bibby brings a lot to the board in dimes, steals, threes and FT percentage. I think his dimes will increase to the mid 7+ level with Musselman running the show, which will probably result in fewer threes. I can deal with that.

3.01 Jermaine O'Neal, FC, IND

Had to stop the slide here. Targeted position scarcity and get a center on board before the bull run began. His dual position Forward/Center eligibility was icing on the cake. Biggest question is obviously durability after two years of injuries and suspensions, but not a real bad history prior. Looking for solid points, blocks, rebounding and even decent dimes for a big. Only adequate percentages for a low post guy, though. Jermaine, please stay away from any crackhead teammates.
 
26HoopsKlyce
      Dude
      ID: 0931275
      Mon, Oct 16, 2006, 05:07
3.02 Josh Smith, GF, ATL

Smith's upside potential is huge. He put up numbers worthy of a top ten player last season in April. He can make contributions in every category including assists at times. His real strengths is blocks where he can make a big impact AND he can go it from the guard position.
 
27Mike V
      Dude
      ID: 0931275
      Mon, Oct 16, 2006, 05:08
3.03 Amare Stoudemire, FC, PHO

Last year I had two guys named Joe at center. I don't want to do that again and I suspect that most of the good Cs will be gone before my next pick. If Dwight Howard had C eligibility I would have taken him. As it turned out this pick is the 3rd of 10 Cs taken in 20 picks. If Amare plays 75 games I've made a good pick, 80 and I've got the steal of the draft.
 
28Swish City
      Dude
      ID: 0931275
      Mon, Oct 16, 2006, 05:08
3.04 Michael Redd, GF, MIL

The toughest thing about this pick was actually passing over Dwight Howard. We considered him in round 2, but just felt that the FT% issues he will create were not something we wanted to get involved in so early. If we had gotten Kobe in 1, we would've taken Howard in a heartbeat, but it just wasn't going to feel right having a FT% problem to start with. Whether we'll regret or not is a different question. I certainly regret that Mike D got him again...after last year's RIHC winning performance, that can't be a good sign for the rest of the field! We also would have snapped up Bibby here were he still loitering on the board.

Michael Redd slowly crept his way into the top tier of elite NBA scorers last season. It's not been a huge statistical jump - more like small steps each year. I was a little surprised when i saw he was a 25 ppg guy nowadays. He brings a lot to the table, that's for sure. Terrific %s for an SG, including a category altering 7.1 FTA at an 88% clip. The scoring and 2 3s/game are also very nice. He's also continuing to improve in his minor cats with a nice uptick in steals and assists. I don't see a reason for any of these stats to stop growing, as Redd is clearly the leader of this Milwaukee team. And did i mention he's only missed 9 games in his last 4 seasons?

A safe pick, and certainly not a spectacular one, but i think that's what was needed following the mini-risk of TMac.
 
29skinneej
      Leader
      ID: 040625911
      Mon, Oct 16, 2006, 08:45
3.05 Rashard Lewis, F, SEA

This was not the player I really wanted here, as the Euros swept in again and grabbed Redd. Lewis has solid production and is a similar player to Redd with a few less points and 3s, although he does add some blocks. Both players are good FG% shooters for high scorers so that is a plus, but Redd shoots a very high FT%. With Dirk and Redd, I would have had a solid edge on that category since they both are high in attempts per game. Lewis is still pretty good there with a career avg around 80%, so overall, he still is a good fit for me.

When I picked Kidd in the 2nd round, I made a list of the next 8 players I thought would be taken, not necessarily the top 8 on my rankings. Of the 8, only Redd and Dwight Howard were still available when I went to bed that night. When I got up and saw that Redd was gone, I started re-thinking my position. Lewis, Diaw and Hinrich were the next three on my list. Howard was about 6 players down, but his potential center eligibility made him attractive and he would be a good source of blocks. He does shoot a low FT%, but I think he has upside there and could get that closer to 70% this season. I had a good idea trader Mike had him targeted a few spots down, but I didn’t have time to e-mail out any offers to swap picks since I had to run to my son’s soccer game. As it ended up, he got him anyway 2 picks lower, so you’re welcome again Mike!
 
32Uptown Bombers
      ID: 35616416
      Mon, Oct 16, 2006, 16:13
3.06 Kirk Hinrich, G, CHI

The first of two picks made from my long queue over the weekend. My general strategy in organizing that queue was to get two players in the next rounds who gave me some combination 3's, FT %, and assists to make up for my first two picks being big men. So I left behind a list of mostly guards and SF's, most of whom were drafted between my 2nd and 3rd picks.

I was left with Hinrich, who fits the overall mold of the types of stats I was after. I am hoping he continues to improve his FG% which could translate into more points. His G flexibility gives me some ability to juggle lineups more easily, though that was only a minor consideration on my part. Overall, I am satisfied, but not giddy.
 
33Mike D
      Leader
      ID: 41831612
      Mon, Oct 16, 2006, 16:18
3.07 Dwight Howard, PF, Orl

I didn’t expect Howard to fall to me here. I had a trade proposal all lined up to send to LPG as I assumed Lewis and Howard would be gone. Thought skinneej would take Lewis, and he did.

I realize Howard’s FT% is a downer, but he was the leading rebounder in the NBA who blocked 100+ shots, and improved his scoring. He’s an excellent FG% guy too. The expected pairing of him and KG gives me the top 2 glass cleaners from a year ago. I survived Howard and Duncan last year; hopefully this year I can do the same. Love the fact that Howard should be eligible at center after a short time too, especially when I passed on Jermo last round. Young, hungry, and improving……good fit for my squad.

And a shout out to skinneej for leaving him for me (lol).
 
34Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Oct 16, 2006, 16:33
3.08 Lamar Odom, F, LAL

After taking guards with my first two picks, I wanted to move closer to the basket for the next two, getting at least one center. The “true” centers I considered for this pick were Camby, Brad Miller, and Okur. Others who are center-eligible include Boozer and Diaw. Of those five, the only one who can really get some blocks is Camby. And although I strongly considered him, I think his injury propensity makes him a little too risky for a 3rd rounder unless there are no more compelling options available.

I think the best available player at any position is Lamar Odom. I didn’t expect him to be available this late, so I never really considered him. He’s not a standout in any single stat, but he provides above average contributions in 7 of 8 categories, coming up a little short only in FT%.

Last year, Odom ranked #20 overall on the ESPN player rater, and I don’t know of any reason why his performance should suffer this year. He’s only 26, and his post-ASB stats were slightly better than his first half stats last year, suggesting a growing understanding with the best way to complement a Kobe-dominated team. I think this is a value pick that has to be made.
 
35coldwater coyotes
      Sustainer
      ID: 034815289
      Mon, Oct 16, 2006, 23:02
3.09 Mehmet Okur C UTA

I planned to pick up a C in the first three rounds. With two guards already picked I went ahead with a C. The choice was between Miller, Camby and Okur. I prefer Camby but he has the injury risk factor to surmount. Miller has the assists in his favor but with Nash/Iverson already picked this is not such a big deal. Okur has the most potential to exceed projections, he has the 3pts and I see Utah under D. Williams having a breakout year.
 
36Florian
      Sustainer
      ID: 034815289
      Mon, Oct 16, 2006, 23:13
3.10 Brad Miller C SAC

I was ideally looking for a source of assists with this pick, but the best players available at this point mostly did not provide many assists. I considered Jason Richardson, but I was worried that even if he came back from knee surgery by the time the season started, he would have been out of shape and his production would have suffered. I considered Camby, but didn't want to deal with his injuries. I considered Ben Wallace, but didn't want to deal with his FT% issues. I considered Diaw, but have no idea how the rotation in Phoenix will work out.

So I elected to fill up my second center spot with Miller, a good source of assists, who has gone in the early second round most of the last few years. I'm not sure why Miller dropped this far, but I guess that's what one bad season (by Miller's standard's) will do. I expect Miller will average around 15 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 1block, 1 steal, 50% FG%, 80 FT% and hopefully 1 3PTM this year. His coach has asked him to shoot more 3 pointers and he shot them at 38.6% last year, so I assuming 1 3PTM/game is reasonable.
 
38lionprideguy
      ID: 32357261
      Tue, Oct 17, 2006, 03:01
3.11 Boris Diaw, F/C, PHO

35 picks into the draft, and this is the fourth Phoenix Suns player taken. I knew that wasn't really a good thing, because there are only so many touches/shots/assists/etc to go around. But if any team can do it, it's the Suns. I know Amare's return might hurt Diaw's numbers, but I gave in because I figure that the Suns found such a valuable weapon in Diaw's combination of size and skills, that they wouldn't go away from that success too much. His continued improvement from the first half of the season, through the second, and into the playoffs, showed he still is improving. Extra motivation for his contract extension/renewal right now was another selling point for me, that's always good to inspire someone to post extra #'s. A center-eligible player who can get 6+ assists on average is a valuable asset. His rebounds might dip with Amare back, but he's also able to fill up the other categories like a future Marion. And if Amare's knee flares up on him at any time, Diaw becomes more valuable.

At this pick I would have loved Rashard Lewis or Dwight Howard to fall to me, but knew it was unrealistic. I considered taking Jason Richardson here but was trying to figure out a way to get them both. Looking at the Footwedge already having a guard and forward, I thought it was more likely his next priorities in his queue were centers and that Diaw wouldn't get past him and back to me at 4.02, so I took Boris here hoping Richardson would come back after Footwedge drafted at least one post player. I didn't expect it to be part of a 5-player run on C's!
 
39Footwedge
      ID: 32357261
      Tue, Oct 17, 2006, 03:03
3.12 Marcus Camby, C, DEN
4.01 Ben Wallace, C, CHI

Made a long queue without a lot of time. Can’t really complain but would have preferred just one of the two and Wallace who went 3 picks later.
 
40lionprideguy
      ID: 32357261
      Tue, Oct 17, 2006, 03:15
4.02 Jason Richardson, G, GSW

Nellie ball. That's my main explanation/strategy here. Yes, I was a bit nervous about his knee surgery and recovery, so I know this is a bit of a gamble. But everything I read sounded like Richardson is motivated and working hard to be ready for the season opener, and I wasn't going to let the possibility of missing 2-3 games early in the year keep me from big numbers the rest of the season.

We all read about how Don Nelson is looking to bring an uptempo game back to Golden State, and how much guard have always flourished under him. This change for the Warriors should benefit Richardson a lot, who can improve again even on last year's 23.2 PPG. The FT% doesn't make me happy, but a guard shooting 45% from the field while hitting 183 3's last year is big. If the Warriors go small, they're going to need Richardson to increase his rebounding and there is potential for more assists too. I'm interestd in Nelson's effect on his players in Golden State and wanted to get in on the potential for a career year for Richardson.
 
41Florian
      ID: 32840258
      Tue, Oct 17, 2006, 09:46
4.03 Stephon Marbury PG NYK

I would have taken Jason Richardson had he still been available. I was very tempted to take Rasheed Wallace with this pick, but I still really needed a good source of assists, which left me with a short list of Andre Miller and Marbury. I would have taken either and ideally would like to have traded down, but was going to be away from a computer for at least nine hours at the time of the pick (I didn’t realize this when I left my house at 2:30pm; I thought it would be more like 4 hours). I only managed to make the pick at all because I snuck out of a function and called one of my friends on a cell phone. He was kind enough to make the pick for me.

Stephon Marbury had a terrible year last year, which I feel was mostly attributable to Larry Brown. Over the previous 5 years his has never scored less than 19.8 ppg, shot less than 43%, had fewer than 8.1 assists/per game, had less than 3 rebounds/game, had less than 0.9 3PTM or steals per game, or shot less than 79% from the FT line. I hoping those numbers are the minimum that Marbury will achieve this year, and if he does I'll be very happy to have gotten him in the fourth round.
 
42coldwater coyotes
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Oct 17, 2006, 12:41
4.04 Gerald Wallace F CHA

Gerald Wallace is primed for a great year, I had thought about taking him in the third round but I stuck to my original plan of taking a C which was a good thing as there was a run on Cs at the end of round three. There is an injury risk factor with Wallace but I don't expect him to lose more than ten games. His FT% is poor but he only goes to the line three or four times a game so it is not too much of a concern. If he can average 2.5 blocks I have a good chance of doing well in this league.
 
43Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Oct 17, 2006, 12:42
4.05 Carlos Boozer, PF/C, Utah

I guess it should be no surprise, but my short list of centers sure vaporized quickly. The only one remaining of the five that I considered in round 3 is Carlos Boozer. He’s not a shot blocker, but he is the best player on my board now, and when the best available player is a center, and I have no centers, then I have to take him, shot blocker or not.

Boozer came on strong for the final six weeks of last season, putting up numbers worthy of top 20 consideration. But he’s only played 84 games in the last two seasons combined. I should know… I’ve had all 80 of his DNPs on my RIHC team for the last two years. Hopefully, the third time is the charm. If not, I’m pretty sure he won’t be back next year!

If Gerald Wallace had lasted one more pick, I’d have taken him. He’s not a center, but he is a shot blocker. And if Camby had lasted to this point, I’d definitely have taken him – he’s both. So this pick was going to someone with an injury history, no matter what.

 
47skinneej
      Leader
      ID: 040625911
      Tue, Oct 17, 2006, 16:01
4.06 Zydrunas Ilgauskas, C, CLE

Well, the run on centers has taken off and I don’t have one yet. I’m low in blocks and fg% right now, so this pick needs to address both. Towards the end of the third round, Brad Miller, Ben Wallace and even Boris Diaw were still around as well as the next pair just slightly down on my list being Okur and Boozer. Surely one of those guys would fall to me. Wrong! Three were taken in a row, followed by Big Ben, and as surmised, Guru took Boozer. Although I usually eschew guys that shoot horrible ft% like Wallace and another big fella (no not Duncan, the other guy!), he would have been a great fit at this point for my team. His high fg%, and great numbers in steals and blocks would have helped my weak areas, and his ft% would have been offset by Dirk, Lewis and Kidd.

The next pair of centers, Ilgauskas and Kaman were about 8 players further down my rankings, but I wondered should I move up and grab one before they went as well. Only two picks remained before mine, but I didn’t want to take the chance. After talking with MikeD, I knew he was looking smaller, so either Z or Kaman would fall to me. Of the two, I prefer Z as the safer of the picks, but Kaman has good upside. I decided that I didn’t want to take a chance at Uptown snagging Z, so Mike and I swapped the next couple picks plus a later pick. Maybe Peja was the guy Uptown wanted all along here and his comments tend to point to him not looking at center, so it is likely I would have gotten Z at my pick anyway. I pick again in 12 picks, and there are 14 guys I’d be happy with so it should workout fine.
 
48Uptown Bombers
      Leader
      ID: 041831612
      Tue, Oct 17, 2006, 22:03
4.07 Peja Stojakovic, F, NOK

The second pick while I was away also fits the mold I was looking for in round 3. Solid 3's, FT%, and scoring. With Peja, I am hoping for increased productivity all around. He should be one of the leading scorers for the Hornets, and playing with Paul should give him plenty of open looks. He contributes significantly in rebounding as well. He stuggled shooting the ball in the first half last year, but picked that up after the trade to IND. I am hoping he can revert back to the years when he shot 48%. That would be an added bonus.
 
49RecycledSpinalFluid
      Dude
      ID: 041831612
      Tue, Oct 17, 2006, 22:04
4.08 Chris Kaman, C, LAC

I had Kaveman targeted for round five before any of this started. The early bull run on centers left Kaman as the last of the higher level centers. At pick 4.07, Hoopsklyce and EuroGollum were both void of any centers and sitting between me and my Kaman pick at 4.12 or 5.01. Soooo, whacha gunna do other than call up good old trading buddy Mike D. After all, he'd been sitting on that 4.08 pick for atleast 30 minutes (approximately 12 years in "Mike D Years"), and they were burning a hole in his pocket. Wham Bam...couple of emails later and a near expired clock...thank you maam...err...man.

What do I expect to see? A guy trying to show he's worth more than the 10 million per year given to a few other young Cs in the league. He can score with excellent percentages, rebound and block shots. What more can you ask out of a center?

I'll discuss my other targeted pick from the 4.12/5.01 cluster at 5.05.

Who is this Species guy? I don't see him in the RIHC managers list...am I overlooking something? :)
 
50EuroGollum
      Leader
      ID: 041831612
      Tue, Oct 17, 2006, 22:05
4.09 Andre Miller, PG, Den

This pick was always going to be a PG for us. They key was really when the PG run that was bound to happen (and did shortly after this pick), did. As it turns out, we ended up having our pick of most of the 2nd tier PGs. So we plumped for Andre Miller.

The stage is set for Miller to have a career year, or at least his best year since Cleveland. There has been much talk of George Karl's implementation of a new fast-flowing offense in Denver that seems destined to net Andre assists by the barreload. If the usual frontcourt suspects can stay healthy and Melo continues to improve, it's easy to see how this could happen. Melo himself has come out and said Miller will lead the NBA in assists this year. So, since we're in desperate need of those, this seems like a perfect choice. Andre doesn't shoot 3s, but this helps to keep his FG% at a very high level for a PG, and he's also another good FT shooter. But obviously his main attraction is his potential 10 apg, along with being another player that is extremely durable.

Other candidates for this slot were Baron, Nelson, Mike James and Felton, 3 of which were (somewhat surprisingly) available when things came back around to us.

 
51MikeV
      Leader
      ID: 041831612
      Tue, Oct 17, 2006, 22:06
4.10 Richard Jefferson, SF, NJ

I had hoped to get a PF by this time but it was a bit of a reach for those remaining. I have Jefferson as a top 30 player that will contribute 20 pts, near 7 rebs and shoot at near 50%. I also considered Artest and Ginobili. I'll probably make the reach for a PF on my next pick.
 
52HoopsKlyce
      Leader
      ID: 041831612
      Tue, Oct 17, 2006, 22:07
4.11 Ron Artest, SF, Sac

I recognize the risk involved with taking Artest but it is just my gut feeling he will get through this season without any blowups. While Josh Smith can make an impact in blocks, Artest has the ability to make an impact in the steal category as well as generally contribute accross the stat sheet. Artest has the potential to perform like a third round pick or better and slipped to this point because I am sure other managers did not want to take on the risk he presents.
 
53Mike D
      Leader
      ID: 041831612
      Tue, Oct 17, 2006, 22:08
4.12 Jason Terry, PG, Dal

I traded down with skinneej and then later with RSF because most of the guys slated to go in those areas I really didn’t want, or couldn’t choose between. After the skinneej deal, no one really came off that I wanted. After the RSF deal, I was surprised to see the Euros take Andre Miller, though I knew that was a risk in making the deal. I had him queued up as my number 2 guy at 4.12 and 5.01. With him gone, Jason Terry was still available and was my pick at 4.12.

I wanted Terry to supplement my roster with 3s, assists, steals, points, and good percentages. His assists have come down and with word of him playing shooting guard, that may slightly continue. But he should do very well in those many other categories. He should become eligible at SG after a short time. Also was considering Jefferson, Jamison, Mike James, and Baron Davis.

5.01 Baron Davis, PG, GS

With Jefferson gone, Jamison, James and B. Davis were my final choices. I usually make safe choices. However, I strayed once last season and it worked out very well for me. I decided to do it again here.

So I took injury prone, fat, attitude challenged Baron Davis. But wait---he lost 15 pounds in the off-season. He is healthy, and is excited about the spiritual revelation he attained from another player who told him to “just have fun” and put less stress on himself. Nellie has taken over the ship. If BD can be a shadow of Tim Hardaway in his prime or Steve Nash in Dallas, well, “whoa Nellie.” Could be a mistake to pair him with Howard from a FT standpoint. But BD was 5/5 the other night, has been challenged by Nellie to shoot ‘em better, and I’m banking (hoping) he improves them. With his great impact on so many other cats, I felt like taking a chance.

Jamison would have fit here nicely. He would have been a smart, safer choice. Same with James. But I didn’t feel like taking them. Oh well. Gotta have a little fun once in a while.
 
57Swish City
      Dude
      ID: 0931275
      Wed, Oct 18, 2006, 13:53
For hoopsklyce

5.02 Rasheed Wallace, PF, DET
With my first four picks being SG/SF types I thought I better try to get a bigger guy. While Rasheed is listed as a PF, he actually plays like a SF. However I am hoping that perhaps at some point during the season he can earn C eligibility. While he does not have too much upside, I am hoping I can rely on the output that he typcially provides. I thought it would also be nice to have a high character team and was happy to have Rasheed join Ron Artest on my team.
 
58MikeV
      Dude
      ID: 0931275
      Wed, Oct 18, 2006, 13:54
5.03 Manu Ginobili, SG, SAS

I had already written in Rasheed when Hoopsklyce took him right ahead of me. The next PF on my list is ranked in the mid-50s while Manu, who contributes in all catagories, and a top 40 pick is still there. It's starting to look like I'm conceding rebounds already.
 
59Swish City
      Dude
      ID: 0931275
      Wed, Oct 18, 2006, 13:55
5.04 Raymond Felton, PG, CHA

When in doubt, select another point guard...right? Right? Right?

I suppose we should have been looking for another big man here, but once Kaman was taken by RSF, we really didn't see any bigs worthy of taking over the slew of very nice PGs that were still there for the taking. Having gone quite safe with Miller the previous round, figured it was time to gamble a bit on a breakout PG prospect. And Felton's the man. Besides, you can never have too many point guards...right? right? Right???

Felton has serious bust out potential. A quick glance at his post All-Star numbers reveals a 16-8-3 line with 2 treys and 1.4 steals. He certainly has a chance to replicate those numbers over a full season given the new and returning talent in Charlotte. What we're talking here is almost an exact Baron Davis clone, without the injuries hopefully.
 
60RecycledSpinalFluid
      ID: 35616416
      Wed, Oct 18, 2006, 17:10
5.05 Jameer Nelson, PG, ORL

When in doubt, select another point guard...right? Right? Right?

Originally had Kaman and a point guard from the trio of BDiddy, Felton and Nelson targeted for the 4.12/5.01 slots. As said before I swapped picks to ensure I got Kaman with the idea there were still a slew of quality PGs out there, including Dre Miller and Tony Parker, that one of my targeted three would survive. Fortunately it worked out that way, despite Mike D's best efforts to draft all the remaining point gaurds in the draft with the picks I moved to him.

I am actually very pleased (or more like relieved) that Nelson was the remaining one. I have always had reservations with Davis because of injury liability and just a crappy attitude. I was also concerned with Felton due to Charlotte also still having that mini-me version of Uncle Fester, veteran point guard still hanging around, possibly eating PT.

Of course, Nelson is battling a concusion from butting heads with Dwight Howard...how the hell did that happen?

Jameer's shooting percentages are phenominal for a PG who likes to pop 3s. Decent steals and dimes, I can see him replicating the numbers Jason Terry put up last season.
 
62Uptown Bombers
      ID: 35616416
      Wed, Oct 18, 2006, 17:13
5.06 Mike James, G, MIN

As I prepared my queue for this round I had the relief of realizing that at least I didn’t have to be ranking 35 players, as I did for the previous two rounds. Once again, I targeted help in 3’s, assists, and FT%. Mike James brings all of that to the table. This is a pick I am happy with value wise, as well as being a good fit for my team. Judging by some of the other comments in the rationales, James was an option for some since the late 4th round. I guess there might be something to be said for the fact that he got skipped over by those people, but I am happy to add him to my team.

Certainly I expect his scoring numbers to drop since he will no longer be the top option on the T-Wolves, but that may lead to better shot selection and improved assist numbers. The one concern is that he isn’t a proven commodity, having only shined for one year. He doesn’t “feel” like a fifth rounder. I’m confident, however, that he is not a one year wonder, and he should help my team all around. Only other player I had ranked ahead of him in my queue for this pick was Raymond Felton, who was snatched two picks earlier. Felton has more break-out potential than James and would have given me a boost in steals that my team needs. In the long run, I am happy the way it worked out. If James was gone, Jamison would have been my pick.
 
63coldwater coyotes
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Oct 18, 2006, 17:21
5.07 Antawn Jamison F WAS

Jamison was clearly topping my list so I decided to trade up three picks to get him as there was a good chance that he would be taken ahead of me. Good all round contributor but nothing spectacular so he tends to fall to round 5 or 6 in drafts.
 
64Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Oct 18, 2006, 17:24
5.08 Caron Butler, F, Was

This has been an odd draft. In the even rounds, my short lists seem to be getting obliterated, leaving me scrambling to find alternatives at the last minute. In the odd rounds, my short lists seem to be almost unscathed, forcing me to pick between multiple options. I guess the guys in the back end of the draft have similar values (or similar needs), and the guys in the front half are out of step with my way of thinking. Given that some of the guys in the front of the draft have been very successful in this league, I can’t say that I find this situation comforting.

About 8 picks ago, my short list (in no particular order) was Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, and Andre Iguodala. Jamison is older (30), offers better scoring, rebounds, and 3s, but worse shooting %s. Iguodala is the youngest (22), offers better statistical balance and 50% FG shooting, but the lowest scoring of the three. Butler is similar to Iggie in many respects, with better scoring, better FT%, and lower FG%. I was kind of hoping that only one would survive, making my choice easy. I’m fairly certain that none will make it back, given the brief history of this draft.

After a long wait, I decided that Jamison was my top choice, so naturally, he went in the pick just before me. It wasn’t someone from the front side of the draft order taking him, either; it was CC changing sides. Figures.

Butler offers decent statistical balance again. It’s hard to believe he’s already entering his fifth NBA season. His second half stats lat year were better than the opening half, averaging 19 points, 7 boards, 2.6 assists, and 2 steals while shooting 48% from the field and 87% from the line. If he can put up those numbers for a full year, then I’ll probably owe Coldwater Coyotes a debt of gratitude.
 
65skinneej
      Leader
      ID: 040625911
      Wed, Oct 18, 2006, 17:55
5.09 Andre Iguodala, SG/SF, PHI

Of the 14 guys I had on my list after the previous pick, 7 were still available when my scheduled pick was due. I don’t know if that’s bad or good. I decided that I’d be better off moving down a few spots and maybe nabbing two of them instead. My hopes were that Antawn Jamison would slip again this season as he was a nice pick last year in the 7th round for me. He was the 5th BPA remaining on my rankings, but he was the top player remaining on Yahoo’s list. I guess I was just dreaming that he’d make it back to me around the turn. I considered taking another PG here and Tony Parker was the guy I would have taken. Seeing that Parker went with the next pick, I guess I was not the only one. Taking a 2nd PG here would affect the direction of my draft the rest of the way, but I still have several guys I like in lower rounds.

I had 3 areas I wanted to improve on with this pick: Stls, Pts and FG%. Once Butler was taken, Andre was the logical choice. I moved down two spots expecting one of them to be left and it worked out. He doesn’t score as many points as Caron, but his steal numbers and FG% are a little higher. He also has multi position eligibility, so that is a bonus. As a 4th year player, I can only expect his numbers to improve over last years and he should be a very solid player for me.
 
66Florian
      Sustainer
      ID: 034815289
      Wed, Oct 18, 2006, 21:08
5.10 Tony Parker, G, SA

I was really hoping to get one of Jamison, Caron Butler or Iguodala with this pick as I felt all three were significantly better than my next group of players. As all three were still available with only three teams picking ahead of me, I was sure one of the three would end up on my team. Unfortunately that didn't happen and I was left scrambling to come up with a pick. I considered Parker, Battier and West for this pick and was ideally hoping to pick up two of them over the next six picks. Looking at Lionprideguy's and Footwedge's teams it was evident that there was virtually no chance of Parker making it back to my pick in the sixth round, but I thought there a some chance of West making it back and a good chance of Battier making it back. So I picked Parker.

Parker shoots a fantastic FG% (55%), especially for a PG. He also takes enough shots to make that FG% have a large effect on team FG%. I hope he'll shoot a similar percentage this year and continue to improve his ppg to about 20. He'll average 6 assists, about 3 rebounds, and get one steal per game. Unfortunately he will hit very few 3 pointer and his FT% is terrible for a PG.
 
67lionprideguy @work
      Leader
      ID: 906204
      Wed, Oct 18, 2006, 21:35
5.11 David West, F, NOR

I have learned me lesson: anytime Florian offers me a trade, I need to accept it. This one is all my fault. For this pick, I started looking at a list of choices at the start of round 5 and figured I really need to draft a PG. I would have taken Jamison if by some miracle he fell, and after that there was the list of PGs: Nelson, Felton, James, and then Parker. Three went 5.04-5.06, then Jamison, but then there are two more forwards drafted and I'm thinking I've caught a break! Florian offers me the opportunity to trade picks for 5.10 and I figure he's got two guards already, no forwards, and he's going to take David West or Chris Webber and I'm safe to hold on to 5.11 and get Parker there. Oops.

David West was a safe, consistent pick. I am worried about some of his shots, and scoring, going down because of Peja's arrival. I'm thinking his rebounding will possibly also be lower this year than last, and he might be a bit overrated right now because all the new pieces in NO are going to take away from him. But he still shoots great% from the field and the FT line, will keep improving as a player since last year was only his fifth getting regular minutes, and did too well last year for them to go away from him altogether. I'm still desperate for a PG and some assists, but he'll provide consitent numbers as a role player on my team.

 
68Footwedge
      ID: 544546
      Wed, Oct 18, 2006, 21:38
5.12 Chris Webber, F, PHI

6.01 Ben Gordon, G, CHI

Webber was best available pick. Gambling on another reasonably healthy year. 65-70 games would make me happy here.
Gordon was a panic pick because I needed a guard badly after the double center thing in three and four. 3’s was the main motivation also hoping to see a little more PT, but with the crowded Chicago guard rotation that’s probably just wishful thinking.

Just noticed Kiri , Camby and CWebb I could rename my team M*A*S*H.
 
69lionprideguy @work
      Leader
      ID: 906204
      Wed, Oct 18, 2006, 21:50
6.02 Deron Williams, G, UTA
This pick was a reach, but I didn't feel right waiting all the way until 7.11, 20 picks later, and still with Diaw being my leading assist man from the C spot. I do like Williams' potential and we all know he started to put up good numbers the second half of last year, averaging 13 points and 5.5 assists while hitting 1.7 3's/G at a crazy 52.6% from downtown. He won't keep that up, but even the 42% from 3 for the year is very solid. There has been a lot of praise out of the Jazz training camp that Deron arrived even better than last year after working hard all summer, and has been outstanding in camp according to all I've read. Williams' motivation and drive has always set him apart, as he would work on weaknesses to get significantly better each year at Illinois, and he's doing it again in the NBA. Overall the Jazz are committed to providing big minutes to Williams after drafting him so high, and don't have many good alternatives to challange him in the backcourt anyway. If he can score 14/game, while making a jump to 6-7 assists with 1.5 3's and good % numbers, at least it's a solid start.

If I wasn't so worried about a guard I might have taken Troy Murphy here, and considered Josh Howard too. In the end, I just needed my first PG too badly and may have stretched for it.

 
71Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Oct 19, 2006, 09:32
for Florian
6.03 Shane Battier F HOU

I really needed blocks at this point. I thought about giving up on the category all together, but with 10 of my 15 picks still remaining I wasn't quite ready to do that. I had Battier pegged since the previous round, so I didn't have to think about this pick too long. I considered Dalembert, but you never know what you're going to get from Dalembert and I felt Battier was the better all around player. Battier main values are in blocks (110), steals (90) and 3PTM(65). He only scores 10 ppg, pulls down about 5 rebounds and contributes about 2 assists. I'm hoping for a little more scoring and 3PTM this year as Van Gundy has told him he needs to shoot more. Battier shoots an excellent FG% (.488 last year) considering his 3 point attempts.
 
72Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Oct 19, 2006, 09:32
for skinneej
6.04 Richard Hamilton G DET
Maybe Richard “the Mask” Hamilton will be my "steal" this season. He slipped from where I expected him to go and was the 4th BPA on my rankings after my 4th round pick. Again, not sure if that is good or bad. What Richard brings is scoring, good FG and FT pcts and decent ast numbers for a 2 guard. I also considered Ricky Davis since he has higher assist numbers, more steals and hits a few more 3s. I think Rip’s advantage is that he is playing in a solid system where little has changed over the past few seasons (except losing Big Ben), and Davis is now in Minnesota where they have brought in several players that may take away from what Davis can do. I probably couldn’t go wrong with either pick, so I think my first 6 picks are pretty safe picks. No gambling this year with the likes of Artest early on (although it was tempting).
 
73Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Oct 19, 2006, 09:36
6.05 Morris Peterson, G/F, Tor
Last year, my 5th and 6th round picks did me in. I picked Boozer in round 5, and he played only 33 games. My 6th rounder was a 3 point specialist who hasn’t been picked until the 8th or 9th rounds in the other RIHC leagues that have gotten that far this month.

I feel pretty good about Butler as my 5th rounder, and now I’m trying to avoid a misstep in round 6. With three picks to go, my short list was Mo Pete, Charlie Villanueva, and Richard Hamilton. Hamilton was probably the least likely of the three to come up short, but I was concerned that too much of his strength is in the shooting percentages, and my ranking model always seems to assign elevated value to high percentage shooters, so I might be overvaluing him a tad. Anyway, he was taken right ahead of my pick, so the issue became moot.

Villanueva is only entering his second year, this time in Milwaukee. He brings a nice combo of blocks and 3s, the two cats that I’m weakest in so far. He may have the most upside of the three, but perhaps also the most downside.

Mo Pete is 29, and this will be a contract year. He’s shown durability (knock on wood) and steady improvement over the past several years, not just year-by-year, but half-year by half-year. For example, using the ASB as the midpoint of each season, his last 6 half seasons have produced successive scoring-per-game averages of 7.7-9.3-11.9-13.7-14.6-20.7. I’m not saying that I expect his scoring to be north of 20 ppg this year, but I like that trend. In addition to scoring, he should get 2+ treys per game and more than a steal. He also has G/F flexibility, which can’t hurt. His FG shooting is not high (43%), but that usually comes with a 3 point shooter.

[digression: I seem to have drafted a number of guys who played better in the second half of the season last year. Do most players put up better stats in the second half, or have I done better than average at scooping up those on the rise? We’ll see.]

Last season, Mo Pete ranked #41 for the full season on the ESPN player rater, vs. #75 for Villanueva. I only need Mo to repeat last year to justify taking him with pick #64. Charlie has been taken about a full round ahead of Mo on average in the other RIHC drafts so far, but he may just have a higher profile – or I may just be screwing up in the 6th round again.
 
74Mike D
      Leader
      ID: 41831612
      Thu, Oct 19, 2006, 10:05
6.06 Ricky Davis, SG/SF, Min

This was actually an original pick of mine in the 6th round that I didn’t trade for (woo-hoo!). I considered a ton of players here at this slot. I almost went with Brandon Roy but decided to play it safer after I made a riskier pick last round. Josh Howard was another guy I almost selected.

I ended up with Ricky Davis because he wanted to play with his namesake Baron Davis. Also, he contributes in so many categories. If the man could block shots, he’d be a huge fantasy star. As it is, he’s solid at # 66.

 
76Uptown Bombers
      ID: 35616416
      Thu, Oct 19, 2006, 21:28
6.07 Emeka Okafor, C, CHA

Is he healthy? That’s the bottom line with this pick. If so, then I think I have a steal. If not, then I still think it was worth the risk. Okafor has the potential to put up numbers (other than FG%) just slightly worse than Dwight Howard, who was drafted 3+ rounds ago. The FG% difference is nothing to throw away. I’d like it if my big men could help rather than hurt in that category. And he stinks in FT%, which I had tried to address with the previous three picks. As it turned out, I was able to get major help in that area with my next pick.

So the question remains: is he healthy? I think so. Supposedly, he buled up before last season, and that added weight put an additional strain on his body. This year, he has slimmed down once again. Hopefully this leads to two things: 1) that he will be comfortable with his playing weight and the injuries will cease and 2) that when Felton looks to run, Emeka runs with him. Generally I expect playing with Felton to help Okafor out, and perhaps even improve his FG% slightly thanks to penetration and fast breaks. So far in the preseason he has not looked great, including by all accounts, getting schooled by the previously mentioned Howard. I see this as Okafor needing to get back into game shape after missing so much time. While he might start out slow, I fully expect him to come on strong this season and for this pick to be one of my favorites. Thought about Troy Murphy, but I felt this pick had more charisma.
 
77Swish City
      Dude
      ID: 0931275
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 05:00
For Coldwater Coyotes

6.08 Charlie Villanueva, F, MIL
While Villanueva was top of my list I was concerned that there would be a run on second Centers and I wanted Krstic. I gambled that Krstic would be available for my sixth round pick. No such luck... Krstic, Wilcox, Dalembert and Frye were all taken before my next pick...tough league.

Villanueva could turn out to be a great pick as he helps in all categories except assists. However I am suspicious of why Toronto traded him for Ford. There are rumors that he has an attitude problem.

 
78Swish City
      Dude
      ID: 0931275
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 05:07
6.09 Troy Murphy, F, GSW

Murphy is a ferocious rebounder that offers moderate help in other categories. He offers about a three a game, but this takes it's toll on his FG% which was a pretty horrible 43% last year. However, we're in Nellie land now. For Troy, this means probable C eligibility, which should not be underestimated when guaging his value. He should also get to the line a bit more being fouled by those clumsy center types, and since he's pretty efficient from the line, it bodes well. We hope for Murphy to thrive in Nellie's offensive system, gain C eligibility and shoot a bit better from the field.

And thanks to LPG for maiming one of our centers before he even gets his eligibility. That Randolph dude has a lot to answer for ;)
 
79Mike D
      Leader
      ID: 41831612
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 09:08
For Mike V

6.10 Channing Frye, C, NY
Desperate for a PF, with Okafor, Murphy and Villanueva at the top of my queue 3 picks ago, I was sure to get one of them. Oh well. Whereas Frye doesn't help much in blocks or assists his %s are very nice at 50% and 82%
 
80Mike D
      Leader
      ID: 41831612
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 09:09
For Hoopsklyce

6.11 Josh Howard, SF, Dal
I felt considering the point I took Howard he was a good value pick. He has the potential to contribute in multiple categories and will be a key guy for the Mavs. Shortly after I selected him he signed a contract paying him around 10 mill per year. If he earns it this season I should be very happy with this selection.
 
81Mike D
      Leader
      ID: 41831612
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 09:10
6.12 Rafer Alston, PG, Hou

This was my 2nd 6th round pick. Josh Howard went right before me to Klyce, or I’d have had a tough time passing him up. Roy was still here and I almost took him. But I looked elsewhere, and was close to selecting either Randolph or Dalembert. I kept coming back to Alston because of his 3s, assists, and steals. A nice trifecta. I don’t pick again for a long time, so while it may have been a little early for Skip, I didn’t think he’d last until my next pick. And my team needed to add some East Coast playground flair to BD’s West Coast ballin’.
 
82RecycledSpinalFluid
      Dude
      ID: 41831612
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 09:11
7.01 Samuel Dalembert, C, Phi

Just hoping this is the breakout year...finally. Potential is there for 10+ boards and 3+ blocks per. Not much of a scoring threat, but will get the close putbacks for a nice percentage. Definitely not a glamour pick but still a solid second center.

Hamstring issues have me worried...that and Mo Cheeks' doghouse.

If things work out right, this pick should put us in the running for blocks, but that Wallace/Camby/AK triumvirant is going to be pretty nasty...and hopefully pretty hurt. ;)
 
83Mike D
      Leader
      ID: 41831612
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 09:11
For Hoopsklyce

7.02 Nenad Krstic, C, NJ
I was excited to Kristic at this point as I needed a center. He is a young player who is quietly emerging for the Nets. He averaged 15 pts, 8 reb, and 1 bl in the last month of last season.
 
84MikeV
      Leader
      ID: 41831612
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 09:12
7.03 Luol Deng, SF, Chi

Deng averaged 16.3 points, 8.1 rebounds and 1.1 steals after the All-Star break and will probably split time between SF and PF. He doesn't contribute in assists, blocks or 3s but 47% and 76% are nice.
 
85Swish City
      Dude
      ID: 0931275
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 09:37
7.04 Chris Wilcox, FC, SEA

Being buried behind uber-stud Elton Brand in the depth charts doesn't do a whole lot for your career. So it's a good job Wilcox managed to shoehorn himself out of California into the more fantasy-friendly environment of Seattle. And boy, did he ever take the chance that was given to him last season. Following his trade, Wilcox averaged a very respectable 14 points and 8 rebounds on a whopping 59% from the field. He's shot 53% for his career so this doesn't come as a total shock. I'm sure he's on just about every sleeper list there is, so it was now or never to grab him.

Wilcox addressed several issues for us. Whilst he's not a big shotblocker, he is C eligible and that FG% combined with meaningful FGA is extremely tough to find at this stage of a draft. Blocks still remains a slight concern for us, but when you get a chance to add a breakout player eligible at C, who's also doesn't hurt you from the line in round 7, you pretty much have to take that.

Very aware that another wave of Center grabbing was imminent, we also looked at Chandler and Darko here. We were totally stunned to see Chandler come back to us in 8, but more on that in the next rationale...
 
86RecycledSpinalFluid
      Leader
      ID: 040625911
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 12:16
7.05 Larry Hughes, SG, CLE

Tough choice for me here, but I think its quality value at this point. If Larry can produce with rock-hogs like Arenas and Jamison, then he should be able to produce as the 2nd/3rd option with LeBron and Big Z. I'm hoping for a blend of the last 2 seasons, something around 17-5-4 with 2 steals and a 3 per game. Not much love in the FG%.

A real mystery pick for me, but I do think is a fair-risk reward pick for a seventh rounder. Seriously considered Maggette and Harrington here.
 
87Uptown Bombers
      Leader
      ID: 040625911
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 12:16
7.06 Cory Maggette, SG/SF, LAC

Once I added another FT problem to my team, Maggette jumped to the top of my list. He shoots a lot of them and shoots them remarkably well. Additionally, I felt like I needed another reliable scorer. Recent news from Clipper land makes it sounds as if Maggette will be back in the starting line-up. When given the minutes, he is not only a scorer, but contributes across the board, excluding blocks. Even if he doesn’t start, I think he fits my team needs well. He’ll most likely miss time again this year as he always finds ways to get hurt. I’ll shuffle him in and out, and because of his dual eligibility, around the line-up. The 2nd player in my queue was Ridnour, who was drafted immediately after.
 
88skinneej
      Leader
      ID: 040625911
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 12:17
7.07 Luke Ridnour, PG, SEA

Looking over the available PGs here, there are three that I like: Cassell, Ridnour and TJ Ford. Cassell seems to be the best shooter of the 3 and the highest scorer, but as always injuries are a concern and he has strong competition at the position. I dropped Ridnour down a little after researching about his thumb injury and he also has potential to share time, but he lasted longer than I expected. His steal numbers and assists are better than the others and he shoots a very high FT%. That will help out in case I decide to go after some poor FT shooters later in the draft. Other players that I considered here were Nocioni, Randolph, and *gulp* Shaq. The Daddy is still available in rd 7, and centers are scarce, but I am still reluctant at this point to take on a guy that makes less than 4 of 8 FTs on average.
 
89Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 12:21
7.08 Al Harrington, F, Ind

I’d have taken Chris Wilcox here if he made it, but he went overseas instead. I have only one center so far, but don’t see any others that I want to reach for now.

My weakest stats right now are blocks and rebounds. Frankly, I may have already effectively punted on blocks – a common theme for my RIHC teams over the years – but at least so far I haven’t paid up for any shot blockers whose value might be wasted. The best rebounding options in this draft neighborhood are Harrington and Nocioni, and I think Harrington gets the nod based on better scoring potential. I’m hoping for 17 pts and 7 boards per game. His shooting percentages won’t help me, but 3 dimes, a steal and a trey per game help round out his value proposition.

 
90Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 18:09
for Coldwater Coyotes
7.09 T.J. Ford G TOR
Ford gives me the other side of the Villanueva trade...hopefully Colangelo knows what he is doing. Ford and Bosh (if his heel is OK) should be a powerful force for Toronto.

Ford will help in assists and steals but very damaging in FG%.

 
91Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 18:09
for Florian
7.10 Mike Miller F MEM

I considered Zach Randolph (as I still did not have a PF), and Raja Bell for this pick. I really dislike Randolph's attitude and other than points and rebounds he contributes very little. I'm a little worried about whether Amare's return will negatively impact Raja. Miller has not yet played in the preseason as he has had surgery on both great toenails (one week apart), but apparently he should be ready to play be the time the season starts. I'm really hoping this is the case as I'm counting on Miller to significantly increase his production while Gasol is out (the extra shot attempts have to go somewhere and Miller is able to create his own shot). I'm hoping for 15 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 3PTM, 1 steal and .5 blocks per game and that Miller continues to shoot at 46-50% from the field (his averages the last 2 years) and 80% from the FT line.
 
92Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 18:10
for lionprideguy
7.11 Zach Randolph F POR
The entire Portland team can't be this bad, right? 82 picks and not a single Trailblazer, but somebody on this team has to put up some numbers. With 20 players drafted between my selections each time, I don't start really narrowing down a list until it gets 8-10 selections away because it would be too much of a waste. This was one of those rare times where one of the guys I started to zero in on by the middle of the round survived to fall to me at my pick (the other I wanted here was TJ Ford, and I would have taken him first). Normally you'd think this was reason to celebrate, but since it's so rare it actually freaks me out more and I start searching to find out what is wrong that I didn't know about. And with a charactor like Randolph, there is plenty that can be wrong.

My rationale in the end was that, again, somebody was going to need to produce for Portland. Zach was a 5th rounder for most leagues last year and had an off year, but I think it was because it was his first back from microfracture surgery. We've seen that most of the players who try to return from this still aren't really all the way back their first year. While certainly a head case, he's been consistant for producing while he's on the court. 18-20ppg and 8-10 rpg the last three years is solid considering we're almost into the 8th round. Reports are that he is in better shape this year and stronger on his knee than last year, almost back to pre-surgery. I'm conting on that to bounce back from his sliding numbers the last two years and more toward the 48-51% FG from a few years ago than the 44% the last two years. He doesn't get much in the steals/blocks categories, but has shown this preseason a bit more versatility and really solid numbers, and anything gained there would be a bonus. At this point in the draft you almost have to start accepting some imperfections in your players and holes in their games. Randolph I believe can be a player who still adds positives who may not help much in some categories, but doesn't hurt me at all. I might have taken TJ Ford here instead if he were available, but I have to still be pretty excited to get Zach this late.

 
93Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 18:10
for Footwedge
7.12 Brandon Roy G POR

I just felt like Roy would produce a good balance and get plenty of minutes. My feeling also is he can produce his own opportunities since POR will be looking for a 2nd option to Zach.

8.01 Raja Bell G PHO

Loads of theys and good shooting pct. Not expecting anything more. I was also feeling I could wait till next round to get some front line players.
 
94Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 18:11
for lionprideguy
8.02 Steve Francis G NYK
It's hard to believe that just 12 months ago, Francis was a second-round pick and legit cornerstone guy for many roto teams. Wow, how quickly things can change. This is a pick where there might be no middle ground - either he continues to be terrible and it's nearly a waste, or it's a huge steal, and it can go either way.

Here's my theory: Isiah Thomas is known to be under a lot of pressure to prove himself this year, given only one season to turn things around. He was a short, scoring All-NBA Guard. So when his feet are to the fire and career on the line, he's going to go with what he knows - scoring guards like Marbury and Francis, and at least go down gunning with them. Right or not, I see him playing Francis a lot, and giving a lot more free reign than Larry Brown did, just to prove he didn't screw up by trading for him. I'm not expecting Francis' career numbers of 20 points, 5 reb, 6 assists. I also don't think that he's many times worse than Marbury, though, who was taken 4 full rounds earlier. I can see Francis getting less points, but more assists and rebounds then Stephon and still getting steals and a decent FT%. If Isiah is committed to giving his Marbury/Francis backcourt big minutes like he's claiming, Francis is well rounded enough to make for a decent 8th round pick. And if it all blows up in Thomas' face and Francis or Marbury get traded midseason to a disappointing team, all the better when they become the main show again.

I still am searching for another PG but felt it was too early for Claxton, Stoudamire, or even Cassell since his minutes are up in the air. It's the tough part waiting 20 players between picks, I could either grab one now too early, or expect they'd all be gone when it got back to me. I felt like Francis had a better chance for contributing across the board this year than either of those three, so I gave up on the PGs again and thought that I had an outside chance Damon Stoudamire would be there for an automatic pick at 9.11 for me (nope).

 
95Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 18:11
for Florian
8.03 Darko Milicic C ORL

I would have taken Raja Bell had he made it back to this pick. So I focused on my team weakness: blocks. I needed a PF (or a C moving Bosh to PF). I considered Shaq, Chandler and Darko. I didn't want Shaq because of the FT% issues and I'm not sure how many games he'll actually play this year (I'm guessing 50). I didn't pick Chandler because he's has multiple chances in Chicago and done absolutely nothing with them, so I don't really expect an improvement this year either.

Darko had 30 games to prove himself last year and he took advantage of them. In only 20 minutes per game he averaged 2.1 blocks, 7.6 points and 4.1 rebounds on 50% shooting. I am hoping/expecting he will average closer to 30 minutes per game this year. If he manages to keep up his production per minute (always a big if in these situations) he would produce about 250 blocks this year. That would fix my team blocks issue. I expect he'll average 11 points, 6 rebounds, 2.5 blocks (hoping for about 200 blocks), 2.5 assists (he's averaged 3.7 in the preseason and has a reputation of being a good passer). Although as Guru stated in one of his posts at this point in the draft rationales become rationalizations.
 
96Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 18:11
for Coldwater Coyotes
8.04 Eddy Curry C NYK
By far my worst pick to date but who else is out there? Swish City later make a good case for Chandler but I am not totally convinced. It was a big mistake not to have picked up a C in round 6. A second C should help with blocks but Curry will be lucky to average more than 0.7 per game.

On the positive side... maybe Isiah Thomas can turn the Knicks around and Marberry will pass the ball. If Curry could get to 16 pts a game and 6.5 rebounds then this pick wouldn't be so bad.

 
97Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 18:12
8.05 Andres Nocioni, F, Chi
I struggled a lot with this pick. I’d been thinking of another point guard, but I just couldn’t get comfortable with any who seemed viable at this point. I considered Marvin Williams, and almost went there. I considered Drew Gooden, and I’m not quite sure why I decided to pass – or at least wait. I almost took Szczerbiak, but his knee still raises at least a yellow flag. I’m sure I looked at about a dozen possibilities, and Nocioni may have survived because I could find the reason to rule him out.

He finished the season strong last year, with post-ASB averages of 15 pts and 7.8 reb, shooting almost 48% from the field while still draining 1.1 treys per game. As long as he gets his minutes, he should keep me in the game. I had him on a different fantasy team last year, and there were stretches when he was quite productive. There were other stretches as well. But I guess that comes with the territory at this stage of the draft.

And I now feel like I’m turning the corner from rationales to rationalizations.

 
98Mike D
      Leader
      ID: 041831612
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 22:50
8.06 Zaza Pachulia, F/C, Atl

It’s been a long wait since my last pick, and lots of guys I wanted have been scooped up. I identified 5 guys I was interested in here, and then narrowed it down to Dunleavy and Zaza. I don’t technically have a center yet since Howard is not eligible. I didn’t want to reach too much to grab one either. I might have taken Zaza a touch early, but at the rate centers have flown off the board, I question if he would have made it back to me.

He’s more like a PF than a C, and in fact qualifies at both. Negatives are a lower than center-like FG% and lack of blocks. Positives are better than center-like FT%, solid rebounding, and 2nd in the league last year for steals by a center. I need to worry about FT% and that knocked Chandler out. And I’ve never had a guy named Zaza on my team.
 
99Uptown Bombers
      Leader
      ID: 040625911
      Sat, Oct 21, 2006, 00:13
8.07 Danny Granger, F, IND

My least favorite pick up to date. True story: I’ve been on four hours sleep for about a week, thanks to my work schedule and trying to follow the Mets in the playoffs. After the Met game that night I went about the business of setting up the queue for the next day. This time I needed three names. Andres Nocioni was the first player I talked myself into. I stared and research for an hour, drifting in and out of sleep but nobody else seemed like a good fit for my team. Finally I woke up at 1:30 am, asleep at my computer, hand on mouse, Kafenatid queue management screen up, foot propped on my desk. My roommate, who heard the loud snoring over the sound of his earphones, came to rescue me, otherwise who knows how long I would have been there. My left leg felt like it had been drained of all its blood. I was desperate for the few hours of sleep ahead of me (I had to be up at 5am), but I had no idea who else to add to the queue. So I groggily looked at my cheat sheets and plugged in the first two names (in no particular order) I could remember considering before my doze, hoping against hope I would get Nocioni. I didn’t.

Granger has potential to help in many categories, especially with increased playing time. I like his numbers last year when he started and got 30 min/G, but I am not sure that is going to happen. Looking at the other drafts, it seems likely that I could have waited and still gotten him in round 9. For the record, the third player on my queue was Tyson Chandler, who was taken shortly thereafter. In retrospect, I would have rather had Chandler. My issue with Granger is not his potential production, but rather at this point I would have rather gone after particular categories rather than Granger, who might help me a little in all the cats. Eh, anyways, I’ll hope he gets the playing time and blossoms into the player everyone thinks he could be.
 
100skinneej
      Leader
      ID: 040625911
      Sat, Oct 21, 2006, 00:19
8.08 Shaquille O’Neal, C, MIA

How did this happen? Why is he still available? Would somebody please just take him so I don’t have to agonize over it. Aaargh. After Nocioni was taken off my queue with two spots to go, the two players left above Shaq were Cassell and Wally. Other than Chandler, I had had my eye on Gooden as well. I nearly took him, but even after a good preseason, I just don’t think there is enough that he contributes that helps my team other than rebs. Cassell would have been the easier choice since I could grab a third pg and wait for another big man. However, looking at the 4 teams that get to pick 8 times before my next pick, two need centers. I was certain neither Shaq nor Tyson would make it back to me.

I have not drafted or owned Shaq in a fantasy league since Duncan’s rookie year. I remember it well, because I drafted Shaq #1 overall in an ESPN league, and then traded him before the season started for Duncan and Gary Payton. It worked out well as TD was a much better rookie than many thought and getting Payton, who was a top tier pg at that time, helped me to the league title. Even though there were times that I considered Shaq since, his poor FT% always kept me from drafting him. I never am in favor of tanking a category right off the bat, and that is what it feels like when you take him.

So here we are…9 years later…and I am faced with taking him in the 8th round of a draft. The 8th Round! Several teams have taken centers the last few rounds and completely avoided him. I mean, even Easy Eddy and ZaZa were taken ahead of him. Is this Bizarro world? Sure he’s getting older, his stats are trending down, and he makes Ben Wallace look like Reggie Miller at the line, but he’s still the Big Diesel or Aristotle or whatever he’s going by these days. I passed on him in round 7 fully expecting someone to take him off my hands before my next pick. But no, you unselfish bastards let him slide 12 more picks just so I would be forced to take him. Just think, you would have saved me and the Euros a lot of heartache if someone would have stepped up earlier.

Well, the final decision came down to how badly would he affect my FT%. All the positive’s were there: the solid pts, rebs, blocks and super high FG% - all things my team was after. However, can he play 60 games? What about 50? Does he have as much drive left after bringing Miami the ring last year? After projecting out each of my player’s FT makes/attempts for this year and factoring in his atrocious numbers, it didn’t have as much affect as I feared. Sure he brought my avg down 6 pts, but I was already well ahead in that category. Afterwards I project that I am 9th overall currently. Plus, I draft a few more high pct shooters, and just maybe I can pull this thing off. Wow! I am genius! Watch out league! …end Bizarro transmission.
 
101Swish City
      Dude
      ID: 0931275
      Sat, Oct 21, 2006, 08:02
8.09 Tyson Chandler, C, NOR

I actually can't remember the last time i was on tenterhooks as much about a draft pick than i was with this one. After taking Wilcox in the last round, i was absolutely surefire certain that there was no way in hell Chandler would come back round to us. I guess his ankle issues and mediocre performance in the few preseason games he has played dropped him down a lot of lists. Of course, Chandler would have been a lock at this spot if it wasn't for that 8th round irritant Shaquille O'Neal and his lousy FT% still being available with 1 pick to go.

The more and more we looked at our squad as Diesel came closer to us, the more we thought the Shaq thing could actually work. The FT% is a downer, sure, but his FTA was down to 8 last year, and if you take into account he'll only play 60 games or so, then effectively an 82 game season from Michael Redd would cancel out Shaq's putrid, yet decreasingly devastating performance at the line. And there no denying, those blocks, boards, and that tremendous FG% would help our team in all the right areas.

Alas, it was not to be. Skinneej was clearly thinking exactly the same things we were, and to be honest his team looks very well equipped to absorb the FT% damage. Could be a monster pick for him as long as Shaq stays healthy.

Anyway, back to reality, and Tyson Chandler. He's no Shaq (well, maybe Shaq-lite), but we're hoping Chandler turns the corner in NOR. With Chris Paul giving him easy hoops, aligned with the defensive capabilities we all know he has (10+ boards, 2 blocks not out of reach), all Tyson needs is some more shots to make his high FG% more relevant. We're hoping he gets those, and with no true backup, is ready for a career year doing the dirty work in the shadows of Paul and Peja.
 
102MikeV
      SuperDude
      ID: 25924115
      Sat, Oct 21, 2006, 12:04
8.10 Sam Cassell, PG, LAC
PGs are all but gone and I had Sam at the top of my queue since Lion took Steve Francis. Sam's getting pretty old but the Clips think enough of him to give out a big 2 year contract. I'd love to get 6 assists and 15 points a game and a steal every once in a while.
 
103RecycledSpinalFluid
      Dude
      ID: 204401122
      Sun, Oct 22, 2006, 01:59
for hoopsklyce:
8.11 Speedy Claxton, PG, ATL
I read reports that Claxton might actually be back during the preseason. While I expect him to go out again at some point I took a chance that he will be at some point during the season providing assists and steals. My team was light on point guards at this point. With league rule of creating an injury spot it made taking claxton a little easier.
 
104RecycledSpinalFluid
      Dude
      ID: 204401122
      Sun, Oct 22, 2006, 02:07
8.12 Bonzi Wells, G, HOU

Shoulda waited on this, shoulda waited on this, shoulda waited on this. Had Drew Gooden all plugged in and ready to go, but just couldn't accept 3 players on the same team, and Gooden's low block total from a PF slot. So...I go with a player I absolutely detest? No morals in Fantasy hoops, gotta love it.

What I'm thinking is "contract year". Yes, he signed a 2 year deal, way under market, but the second year is dirt cheap and player voidable. Two things can happen here...he can ball to his selfish hearts content or he can gripe, moan and underachieve. A smart man would go with option A. Unfortunately, as his past has shown, Bonzi is a few fries short of a happy meal. Lets hope money is a strong enough driving force.

Now, what do I expect out of this pick? I'd settle for his career averages of 13, 5, 2 with 1.4 steals. Unfortunately that also means about 68-70 games.

Oh happy happy joy joy...play with fire you get burned...as I type this up, I read he is likely to miss opening game(s) for "personal reasons"...ok this pick is in the crapper already. You'd think I would have learned from '04...
 
105Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Oct 23, 2006, 10:27
continue for rounds 9-15