Self Editor

Forum: hoop
Page 12907
Subject: RIHC 2008-09: Draft Rationales (Rounds 1-8)

Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Wed, Oct 15, 2008, 12:17

This thread will be for managers in the RotoGuru Invitational Hoops Challenge to provide the rationale for each pick.

Here are the ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.)

2. Try to keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information. In particular, please avoid mentioning the names of any players who are still undrafted at that time of the post.

Please post your (2-round lagged) comments at the time you make your pick. For example, you should post your comments for your round 1 pick when you make your round 3 selection. The best practice is to post your rationale immediately before making your next pick. If you are not ready to post at that time, then create a "placeholder" so that the next person is able to go ahead in sequence. When your post is ready, simply post it in the current draft discussion thread and I can copy it over. Please do NOT post your rationale in this thread if it is out of sequence.

The general format should be:
1.01 Chris Paul, PG, NO
Several sentences of rationale.

If your rationale is due and intervening placeholders have not been inserted, please insert them before posting your rationale. For example, create a post that says:
for Guru
1.09 Deron Williams, PG, Uta

As a part of your first round rationale, please comment on your choice of draft order as well.

holt
ID: 591380
Thu, Oct 16, 2008, 00:50

1.01 Chris Paul, PG, NO

Given the option to draft first, I see no reason not to take it. As a matter of convenience, I really like drafting at ends of a draft. You can take care of two rds at once and not have to check in as often. Less chance of being "that guy who stalls every rd".

Chris Paul had a phenomenal fantasy season last year. 920 assists and 220 steals... I don't think there is a better player to build a fantasy team around. It doesn't take a lot of deep insight to arrive at that conclusion. He's being drafted first everywhere...

Getting numbers like this from one player really takes the pressure off of later picks and frees things up. I don't think I'll feel compelled to hunt down certain categories as much as I normally do. On the flip side, he is young and hasn't proven that he can produce these numbers every year. Oh well.

Swish City
Dude
ID: 0931275
Thu, Oct 16, 2008, 05:12

for Pacers Rule
1.02 LeBron James, SF, CLE
Well, I thought for sure that Kobe or Lebron would go first, leaving me with the sweetness of Chris Paul and his multi-category monster line at the #2 pick. I was ecstatic to land this high of a pick and even more ecstatic to know who to use it on (Paul). As our draft approached, Paul was getting more fantasy love, and then I saw much to my dismay that he had been taken #1 overall in both the AAA leagues which were viewable on the Kafenatid site, and I started getting nervous that maybe Holt would nab him. I tried to look for a history on Holt's picks but I found none to give me a hint. I emailed Holt a trade offer as a preventative measure, but received no reply. I started to relax, however, because I decided that I would love either Paul or Amare, so I'd just take who was left. Then suddenly it hit me that D'Antoni was gone and maybe Amare would not be the uber-stud we all anticipated this year in a defense-oriented, fewer possession, more half-court set offense. Then he got poked in the eye and had to miss some time. I decided I didn't want him after all which took me down to one guy I wanted. Unfortunately, me & CP3 was not to be.

I didn't want Kobe here because I think there is a substantial risk that his line goes down maybe 15 to 20% across the board in the volume stats due just to the Lake Show's amazing depth. He might play less minutes when they are blowing people out and I think he will be one of four guys (the best one) but his stats will take a small hit. I just didn't want that risk with this high of a pick.

I decided that with Lebron's studly all around game, I could take the hit on FT% (I'd have to) because there was no better option. He should be a beast again this year.

Swish City
Dude
ID: 0931275
Thu, Oct 16, 2008, 05:13

for Mike D
1.03 Kobe Bryant, SG, LAL
I came close to taking the 4th spot in the draft, or somewhere in the middle (7 or 8), but eventually took 3rd, and figured I’d get either Paul, James, or Kobe, and it went in that order. Only other player considered was Amare, who I rode to the title last year.

I don’t know that I’ve ever owned Kobe before. In any league. Yet he has been helping owners in almost every category. Last season, Kobe averaged 28.3 points, 1.8 3-pointers, 6.3 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.8 steals and was elite from the line, shooting 84 percent on 9.0 attempts per game. The league MVP will put up similar numbers this season, though a slight dip in scoring and rebounding is possible.

Swish City
Dude
ID: 0931275
Thu, Oct 16, 2008, 05:15

1.04 Amare Stoudemire, FC, PHO

I think the 4th slot is a bit of a conundrum in fanatasy hoops this year. IMO, the top 2 picks are very clear (Paul, LeBron) and #3 is almost certain as well in Kobe. But number 4 - that's where it starts to get a bit tougher to decide. I spent a lot of time wavering about whether i should trade down a slot, as i would have been very happy with Amare or Wade. But in the end, i just couldn't resolve myself with Wade's notorious health issues, despite his miracle workings in Beijing.

With that in mind, Amare is the choice. I lock up one of the prized C slots early, and without reaching. His numbers spiked in the 2nd half of last season, and i'm looking for him to hold steady at that level. 27 ppg, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks, a whopping 59% FG% (the most positively affected FG% out there), and a sturdy 80% from the line on nearly 10 FTA. D'Antoni is gone, but i think the slower pace will suit Amare as he uses his supreme quickness to get to the line even more in half court offense.

Hear the AmareBeast roar...

KnicksFan
Sustainer
ID: 030815418
Thu, Oct 16, 2008, 10:42

1.05 Dwyane Wade, G, MIA

I thought about taking 7th or 8th, especially after seeing that the winners in previous years tended to have those late-middle spots. In the end I just went with 5th because I wanted to get the best player I could in round 1.

My decision came down to Wade, Dirk and Brand. Dirk left my mind pretty quickly because I'm not a big fan of his game and I think he's due for a drop in stats. Brand was very tempting, especially because he is playing in the Eastern Conference. However, his contributions are basically 20-10-2, and I thought I could get those kinda stats from other guys later in the draft.

Dwyane Wade is a great all category contributor. He played great this summer so I'm not too worried about his injuries. IF he can make it through 70 games this season I will consider that a success. He is a good base player to build around because with his strong stats in several categories I can have more leeway with later picks in the draft.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 16, 2008, 11:56

for Florian
1.06 Dirk Nowitzki PF DAL
I felt the top four players were self-evident. I thought about picking seventh and taking whoever was left between Wade, Brand and Nowitzki. I ended up taking the sixth pick (the highest remaining draft pick) so I would get to pick earlier in the later rounds.

I feel Nowitzki will improve on last year's performance. His scoring (25 ppg), 3PTM (1.6) and FG% (50%) all significantly improved after Kidd came to Dallas. I feel Nowitzki will produce similar numbers this year along with around 8 rebounds, 2-3 assists, 0.7 steals, and 0.8 blocks. In addition I expect him to continue shooting about 7 FT per game at a sizzling 90% rate.

<> The only other player I seriously considered at this spot was Elton Brand. His center eligibility makes him quite valuable. In the end I felt Nowitzki's extra scoring, FT%, and 3 PTM outweighed Brand's superior blocks and center eligibility.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 16, 2008, 11:56

for weykool
1.07 Kevin Garnett SF BOS
I chose the 7th slot to get as close to the middle as possible. When I draft towards the ends I tend to overreach with my 2nd picks because I know the players I am targeting may not be there when the draft gets back to me. Best to stay in the middle where I can react and adjust quicker to any trends that may develop as the draft progresses.

Going by stats/min KG is an aboslute fantasy stud. The problem of course is how many minutes will he get during the regular season????? I am gambling a bit here that the Celtics will not be as dominant as they were last season. If they struggle they may not have the luxury of limiting KG's minutes and that could pay huge dividends. Even with limited minutes KG will be a player that gives solid stats in multiple categories and should allow me to build a team around him as the anchor.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 16, 2008, 11:57

for deejay
1.08 Elton Brand C PHI
I went with #8 because it was the best available and also because I thought Marion would drop a little compared to last years, so I thought KG would drop to me, thinking Brand would have been gone, it went the other way around.(before the draft) I have had that spot in the past and it always served me pretty well.

I had 2 guys in mind here(during the draft), being Brand and Deron Williams, Im high on Deron this year, but Brand can be put at C, and has a good FT%, plus he's in the East now which made me get him over Deron. Hes a little bit of a risk, but no guts, no glory :)

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 16, 2008, 11:59

Pick 9 – I’ve had good success picking near the middle of the round in each of the last two years (picks 7 and 8). Pick 9 was as close as I could get this year. Nothing more to it than that.

1.09 Deron Williams, PG, Utah
Once I dug in and started quantitatively ranking players, I discovered that there were eight guys who I felt most comfortable with. Clearly, 5-6 of those had no chance to slide to pick #9. But I was hoping that perhaps either Elton Brand or Deron Williams would make it – even though I really didn’t expect it. Garnett was not in my top 8, however, so weykool came through for me. Way cool!

Outside the top 8, my choices would have been Shawn Marion, Dwight Howard, or Garnett – and I’d have probably taken Marion. All three of those players have aspects that make them riskier than Deron, however. A good first round pick can’t carry a team, but a disappointing pick can certainly make things difficult.

Williams was a fixture on my RIHC team last year and put up numbers worthy of a first rounder, although I drafted him in round 3. In addition to stud-quality assists, his 50% FG shooting is rare for a guard, let alone one who knocks down a trey per game.

Barring an injury, I’m confident that my team is off to a solid start.

E'ville
ID: 154442214
Thu, Oct 16, 2008, 12:27

1.10 Iverson, G, Den

I was looking for consistency in round one. I know AI is always hurt, but he always plays through it and still produces. I've never had AI on a fantasy team and for some reason this feels good.

Third in scoring 8th in assists plus he's 3rd in FT attempts that should help overall FT percentage. Steals are also always there. FG% also not bad considering how many shots he takes. Just hope he can keep production up this year.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 16, 2008, 12:47

for Species
1.11 Dwight Howard C ORL
As noted in the discussion thread, somebody had to do it. Howard is a huge beast in points, FG%, rebounds and plenty of blocks. But, pundits indicate that his hefty toll on your FT% makes him a 3rd or 4th round value. Honestly I had hoped he would be gone so I would not have to make the choice as to whether I could skip him. I decided it would just be more FUN to take Howard, punt FT% and see where it takes me.

The other players I considered here were Shawn Marion and Steve Nash.

Draft order choice: I had no choice. I was last to pick and was granted the #11 pick.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 16, 2008, 15:01

for s R
#12 - Simply: in slow live version I like draft at the endpoints.

1.12 Josh Smith, F, Atl
Last season he blocked the second-most shots while averaging career high in points, assists and steals.His biggest strength is his versatility and the fact that he delivers numbers across the board. Also, his numbers are still on the upswing and they are likely to continue in this direction, he's getting better and better at both ends of the floor.

2.01 Al Jefferson, PF, Min
Big Al seems capable of even more than the 21 points, 11 boards and 1.5 blocks he averaged last season. Perhaps most importantly, he played in all 82 games and was one of the more consistent producers in the NBA. He's on verge of monster numbers.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 16, 2008, 15:01

for Species
2.02 Shawn Marion SF MIA
Marion's production declined after leaving the friendly confines of Phoenix' high powered offense. I took this into consideration, but hope that with Dwyane Wade hopefully being healthy and perhaps with Beasley down low as well that Marion can come close to historical norms. I liked him for his FG%, rebounds, blocks and steals.

I actually seriously considered taking Danny Granger here. My sentiment was that Marion was the old guy with little upside, while Granger was the young stud with huge upside. At best Marion will do what we expect him to, while Granger can exceed our expectations. I tried to trade down and briefly considered one proposal, but was concerned about dropping too far, and sure enough Granger was gone before that pick came up.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 16, 2008, 15:01

for footwedge
2.03 Steve Nash PG PHO
My short list was Marion, B Davis and Nash. With Marion going just ahead of me I was down to Davis and Nash. I know Nash may lose a little stat wise compared to last year, but I'm playing the early rounds safe and even though I expect better overall potential from Baron I took Nash for the year to year consistency. I'm hoping to get 10 assists along with a high shooting percentage and help in treys.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 16, 2008, 15:04

2.04 Caron Butler, SF, Was
My short list for this pick includes Butler, Danny Granger, and Carmelo Anthony.

Last year I took Marcus Camby in the 2nd round, accepting the health risk, and that worked out pretty well. At age 35, I don’t think I want to play roulette with Camby again, but I can do so with a younger (28) – and similarly health-challenged Caron Butler. For the first half of last year, he was a monster stat-stuffer worthy of a mid-first round selection. Then came the DNPs, and he ended up missing 24 games. And the year before he only played in 63 games, so it would be foolish to dismiss last year as a fluke.

I read that he took up yoga during the offseason, lost some weight, and feels ready for the grind. Maybe I’m a sucker, but a shot at Butler for 70+ games sounds like it’s worth it. If he plays in 65-70 games, then he should still be worth a mid-second round pick. Let's see how many boo-boos the yoga bears.

deejay
Sustainer
ID: 501182710
Thu, Oct 16, 2008, 15:51

2.05 Baron Davis PG, LAC

That was a pretty easy choice for me, since I found it was the last of the big guns at PG left.
Baron is a stat filler, and that is what I needed. There is always the injury risk when drafting him, but he did play all 82 games last season...

I have my fingers crossed he can do the same especially for me.

weykool
ID: 2842717
Thu, Oct 16, 2008, 17:17

2.06 Chris Bosh PF TOR

It seems like very season that Bosh just keeps getting a little bit better.
This was basically just taking the best player available.
I should be able to adjust to fill in other stats later on in the draft.
His stats acrros the board are very solid for a PF.
The bonus is he is also center eligible.

Swish City
Dude
ID: 0931275
Thu, Oct 16, 2008, 17:51

2.07 Danny Granger, GF, IND

I was really keen to get a PG to go with Amare, here. My heart sank when i saw Deron, Iverson, Baron and Nash all disappear in front of me. At that point, i sort of had a mini-realisation that i'm going to have to go for players i really want. So, that's what i did with Granger. After the PGs all went, i decided i didn't want a crumbling old big man like Duncan or Camby and decided to go a bit risky. So i traded up a few slots to guarantee Granger.

This guy was off the charts in the 2nd half last year. I'm seeing him easily obtaining 20 ppg, 6 boards, about 150 3s, and 100 blocks and steals. Plus he'll do it with a respectable FG% of around 45% and a sweet 85% from the line to pair with Amare's solid performance there.

This is a huge pick for me. If i've gotten it right, i think it could potentially be my best pick of the draft. In my eyes, Granger's got 1st round value written all over him. And with the team i have assembled so far, i think this is going to be such a fun season to follow. I guess we'll soon see.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 16, 2008, 20:35

for KnicksFan
2.08 Tim Duncan PF SAS
I was thinking about Yao Ming and Joe Johnson in this spot in addition to Dunky. Ming's injury history scared me off and I thought Joe Johnson could potentially last until my 3rd round pick.

Tim Duncan is still a top notch big man who will give me 18-20 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 blocks a game. Last season he actually shot above 70% from the foul line so he wasn't as detrimental in that category as he used to be. Also, his dual F-C eligibility is a bonus.

For years now his minutes have been kept steady in the low-30s because the Spurs win big (similar to the Kevin Garnett Boston situation). Hopefully the Spurs dominance will slow down a bit this year and Timmy will be asked to play a couple more minutes per game. Just check out his playoff stats when he was playing 40 minutes and you can see that this guy still has the skills when he gets the time.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 16, 2008, 20:36

for Florian via trade
2.09 Jose Calderon PG TOR
I was due to pick at 2.07. I wanted to pick up a center and a PG with my second and third picks. However my draft sheet was telling me to take Granger or Rudy Gay. As I live near Toronto and get to watch some of the Raptor games I really wanted to draft Calderon. He's even better than his stats indicated last year. In some of the games that he started, Ford came off the bench significantly interrupting both his minutes and the flow of the game.

So I offered to trade down. Swish fortunately was interested and promptly selected Granger. I picked Calderon with this selection, hoping that one of the remaining four highly ranked centers would last through the next six picks. I considered Joe Johnson and Billups as well, but feel Calderon has the most upside.

I expect Calderon to score 15 ppg, average about 10 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.5 3PTM, 3.5 rebounds and continue his extremely efficient shooting (.530 FG%, .900 FT%).

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 16, 2008, 20:36

for Mike D
2.10 Chauncey Billups, PG, Det

I could have gone many directions here, but I finally took a guy I took in the 3rd round last year………Billups. I’m looking for the standard Billups line of 17.0 points, 1.5 3-pointers, 7 assists and 1.3 steals which is what he averaged the last couple years. Point guards are flying off the board, but that’s not why I took him. I took him for his consistency and ability to help in so many categories. Also considered going big, but didn’t feel the value was there. Billups will play with a chip on his shoulder now that deejay has dissed him by excluding Chauncey from his “big gun” club.

Pacers Rule
Sustainer
ID: 910311210
Fri, Oct 17, 2008, 00:29

2.11 Yao Ming, C, HOU
After taking Lebron, I felt I needed to get the ship righted on the FT score and fast. I had thought about Yao early on as possibly being available at this spot, but when it came time to take him, I had to swallow hard to gulp down the huge risk I was taking here. I was encouraged to hear that the Rockets are going to be a lot more proactive about limiting his workouts to lower impact activities, but I'm still not sure this was a good risk here. I guess time will tell. If it works out, what a steal, but if not, a major gaff.

holt
ID: 591380
Fri, Oct 17, 2008, 08:09

placeholder

2.12 Marcus Camby, C, LAC

I expect some statistical drop from last season (due to sharing the court with Kaman), but Camby should still be good for a mountain of blocks and rebounds. with 1000 rebounds and almost 300 blocks last season, even with a dropoff he can still carry my team in those categories (as long as I can sqeeze 65-70 games out of him). throw in strong assist and ft% numbers and he's one hell of center.

3.01 Pau Gasol, C, LAL

After getting Paul, I think it's good to stock up on a some big guys before the pickings get too slim. If I get over 70 games from Gasol I think he'll be a decent bargain. He's a good contributor in everything you expect from a center plus he helps keep the free throw % up. There were no other players I seriously considered here.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 17, 2008, 10:44

for Pacers Rule
3.02 Joe Johnson SG ATL

Well, I really wanted Jose Calderon here, but I knew it wasn't a given he'd be available with this group of PG-hawking managers. I thought if he was gone, I'd have to give Billups consideration here, but Mike D saved me from that decision. Even though I wanted a top 2nd tier PG here, I thought they were all gone, so I didn't want to reach for one. So, I did the next best thing. I drafted a SG with PG type numbers. I looked hard at Iggy and my eventual pick, Joe Johnson. I liked that Johnson continued to help undo the damage to my FT% that LBJ did and also that he gets a lot of threes and 2nd tier PG level assists. I thought he was excellent value here, so I snatched him up. I expect he'll have a very strong year. Passing on Iggy's steals was tough though.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 17, 2008, 10:45

for Mike D
3.03 Andre Iguodala, SG/SF, Phi

AI2 is an all-around fantasy stud who can fill the stat sheet in nearly every category. He’s only 24 years of age, and his ability to contribute points (19.9), rebounds (5.4), assists (4.8), steals (2.1), blocks (0.6) and 3-pointers (1.2) makes him a near-perfect building block for Extreme Basketball. I think Elton Brand’s arrival will only help Iggy, as opposing defenses will now have to defend the post game while trying to contain his slashing perimeter attack and 3-point ability. A consummate team player and fun guy to root for. Also considered Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter among others.

KnicksFan
Sustainer
ID: 030815418
Fri, Oct 17, 2008, 11:07

for Florian via trade
3.04 Carlos Boozer, C, Utah
I really wanted a high quality center with this pick. I thought it was unlikely any of the three people picking ahead of me would take more than one center. PR took Yao, then Holt took Camby and Gasol. Fortunately Mike D didn't feel a need to select a center.

Even though my plan all along was to draft a center, I considered taking Gay at this spot. Gay has a lot of upside and I feel he'll provide similar value to Granger. I ended up going with the original plan and drafted Boozer.

Boozer has the option to opt out his contract after this year, so I feel he'll be motivated to play at least as well as he has the last two years. I expect he'll average 21 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, and 0.5 blocks on 55% shooting.

KnicksFan
Sustainer
ID: 030815418
Fri, Oct 17, 2008, 11:09

3.05 Rashard Lewis, SF, ORL

I really hoped AI2 or Joe Johnson would drop to me in this spot but I had no luck. This pick was very stressful because even though I knew that I wanted to target 3-ptrs and FT%, there were so many tempting options that didn't fit my criteria. In the end though I narrowed it down to Rashard Lewis and Jason Richardson. I picked Rashard because his FT% is higher.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 17, 2008, 12:08

for Eurogollum via trade
3.06 Rudy Gay, PF, MEM

Having traded up to get Granger in round 2, i was extremely surprised to find that his copycat, Rudy Gay, was still available at my later slot of 3.06. This was pretty much an automatic pick for me, even though i got Rudy in round 9 last year in AAA. I love guys that contribute across many categories, as it means your team isn't totally obliterated if your sole shot blocker or thief gets injured. Rudy fits this mould perfectly. Without Pau, he is the undisputed man in Memphis, and i'm liking players in that situation.

I expect his line to be very similar to Granger's. That means 2 members of the 1/1/1 club in the first 3 rounds. So far, i'm ecstatic with my first 3 picks. The only thing i'm worried about is that i don't have a PG yet, but after Calderon and Billups went off the board, i felt it was prudent to wait that one out a bit more to get my starting PG.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 17, 2008, 12:08

for weykool
3.07 Carmelo Anthony SF DEN
After we made the turn for round 3 I decided it was time to target a good 3-point shooter. On my list was Rashard Lewis and Jason Richardson, both high on the list of downtown specialists with other decent stats to go along with them. Rashard was drafted 2 picks before me but JR was still available.

As I kept looking over my draft sheet there was Carmello sitting there with his hand up saying "Pick me, Pick me". In the end I decided I just couldn't pass up his 25+ points and 7.4 rebounds per game along with other decent stat fillers.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 17, 2008, 12:09

for deejay
3.08 Kevin Durant SF OKC
Here I had a dilemma, to go with David West or take the upside of Durant. I went for the second. I think Durant is gonna be huge this year. And I want to be part of that. I only hope he doesnt kill my FG% cat.

First I targeted Gay here, but he went a little earlier...

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 17, 2008, 12:12

3.09 Jason Richardson, SG/SF, Cha
With three picks to go before mine, my short list was Rudy Gay, Carmelo Anthony, Paul Pierce, Gerald Wallace, and Jason Richardson. Gay and Anthony were at the top of my list (I actually considered Anthony in the second round), but they disappeared, leaving me with a choice of Pierce, Wallace, or Richardson.

Although I love the stat stuffing ability of Wallace, with Caron Butler already on the squad, I should probably try to find someone more durable.

Pierce is 31, Richardson is 27.
Both are Yahoo eligible at both SG and SF.
Pierce missed only 2 games last year, while Richardson played all 82.
Pierce may lose a little PT if the Celts can win enough games while keeping him more rested for the playoffs. Richardson should not have trouble finding PT, although if Charlotte pays Wallace at SF, the Bobcat backcourt may be crowded unless injuries open things up.
Charlotte has Larry Brown as coach this year, so who knows what happens to the rotation.
Their statistical profiles are similar, with Richardson getting the advantage in most of the counting stats (other than assists), while Pierce gets the nod in the shooting percentages.

There’s really very little to separate them. Even last year, they ranked very comparably – both on a per-game basis, and in total.

Last season, I had trouble in the 3-point category, so I think I’m going to take the guy who can do the most for me there. My ranking approach tends to favor the shooting percentages, so I think I’ll probably do OK there anyway.

Species
ID: 2931173
Fri, Oct 17, 2008, 12:46

For footwedge:

3.10 David West, PF, NO
My short list was Durant, JRich and West. Since only West was left it made it simple. I just felt he was the best fit for my team, having two guards already. Plus I'm looking for West to continue and improve. Nothing huge just slowly improving and polishing his game and team relationships with Paul. 20 points 9 boards and 1 in steals and blocks.

Species
ID: 2931173
Fri, Oct 17, 2008, 13:11

3.11 Jason Kidd, PG, DAL

I was thrilled when Kidd fell this far. With Dwight Howard on board I could absorb his achilles heel, FG%. I don't need him to be the superstar fantasy stud from 3 years ago to justify this pick. But if he gets 9+ assists, 6.5 rebounds and 1.75 steals and over 1 three a game, he's a bargain at this pick.

I did not consider anyone else.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 17, 2008, 16:58

for S R
3.12 Paul Pierce, SF, Bos

Last season was a triumph for the ten-year veteran. He has reached a certain level of production and has shown the ability to maintain it. His FT% has drastically improved over his career and the three-pointers would be hard to compete with, I'm looking to once again avarege ~20 points, as well as producing a solid number of rebounds and assists.

4.01 Brandon Roy, SG, Por

Roy has been a star from his first NBA game and is a high scoring, high assisting, good rebounding de facto point guard of the Trail Blazers and led the team in most categories. There are some durability concerns, and may need to cede some shots to his new teammates.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 17, 2008, 16:59

for Species
4.02 Kevin Martin SG SAC

I actually preferred Paul Pierce here, but he rightfully went ahead of me. Martin ranked close behind.....but of course for my team Martin's huge value in FT% goes to waste. That being said, he's still a 22+ PPG scorer, something I needed after having Marion and Kidd on my roster, and Martin typically does so with a strong FG% for a scorer. He's not as well rounded as I would have liked, but he's superior to other options at this point in the draft.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 17, 2008, 17:00

for footwedge
4.03 Antawn Jamison SF WAS
Tough call here as I was tempted by Vince and Kaman. I was swayed by the uncertainty of how Kaman and Camby would affect each other and Carter will have big numbers with little or no offensive help in Jersey but it's hard to tell how he will hold up in that situation. As far as Jamison he continued to produce last year with Arenas out and another 20-10 guy was just too hard to pass here.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 17, 2008, 17:01

4.04 Andrew Bynum, C, LAL
In the first three rounds, I pretty much went with the best player available, regardless of position or statistical scarcity issues. At this pick, however, I think that going with the best available just compounds my existing profile, and I need to begin to address team chemistry.

I had tentatively planned to get a center in this round anyway. While it may be a tad early for the available centers, I think the crop will thin significantly before my next pick at 5.09, and I’d rather not punt the block category, in spite of prior success in doing that (once).

I rank the top available centers as Bynum, Kaman, and Bogut. Although they all sport similar counting stats, Bogut’s sub-60% FT shooting puts him behind the other two, who also offer higher block potential.

Both Kaman and Bynum had periods of stud-dom last season, but also extended downtime.
Bynum will be 21, while Kaman is 26.
Both have a new front court player to mesh with: Gasol (w/ Bynum), and Camby (w/ Kaman).
They had similar counting stats (per game) last year. Their shooting percentages were quite different, with Kaman at 48%/76%, and Bynum at 63%/69%.

Bynum has declared himself 100% healthy this fall. Kaman has already been troubled with plantar fasciitis. That’s a red flag.

Youth is served. I think Bynum has more potential upside anyway. Either one of them would make a value pick in the 5th round. Am I reaching too much in round 4? Perhaps. But even he can remain relatively healthy and put up averages similar to last season, I’d rank him in the 45-50 range, without any bump up for scarcity.

deejay
Sustainer
ID: 501182710
Fri, Oct 17, 2008, 20:39

4.05 Hedo Turkoglu SF ORL

This was a toughie, but in the end I went with Hedo, he contributes some in every cat, has a good FT% and scores a decent amount of 3s.
He is 29, so should be in his prime, any improvement over last season, Ill gladly take as well.

I really wanted Jamison here, but he went 2picks earlier, bummer, but Im confident Hedo will serve me well.

Florian
ID: 249231415
Fri, Oct 17, 2008, 22:06

for weykool
4.06 Chris Kaman C LAC

I was really hoping to get Bynum here but once again Guru peeks over my shoulder and take my guy. If Kaman can stay healthy he should put up very solid numbers in blocks and rebounds. With the addition of Baron and Camby I expect Kaman to fit in very well and put up monster numbers.

Florian
ID: 249231415
Fri, Oct 17, 2008, 22:08

4.07 Vince Carter SG NJ

I very happy to get Carter with this pick. I didn't seriously consider anyone else. Carter is the man in NJ this year. Once Kidd got traded the offense ran through Carter. As a result he averaged 23 points, 6.5 rebounds, 5 assists, 1.6 steals, 1.6 3PTM and 0.5 blocks on 48% shooting after the all-star break. I hoping Vince will enjoy being the man again and doesn't flake out with some "injury". At this point in the draft I think it's worth the risk.

Mike D
Leader
ID: 041831612
Sat, Oct 18, 2008, 12:32

for KnicksFan
4.08 Stephen Jackson, SG, GS
I was going to take Vince Carter here but he got snatched one pick earlier. Stephen Jackson is one of several swingmen who have similar stats, along with Artest and Joe Johnson. I am high on SJ though because he will be taking more responsibility handling the ball with Baron Davis gone. Look for an increase in assists. Also, "unnamed player" is suspended for 30 games so Jackson is going to have to carry the load for a while.

Mike D
Leader
ID: 041831612
Sat, Oct 18, 2008, 12:33

For Swish City
4.09 Devin Harris, PG, NJN

I HAD to get a point guard here. My ideal would have been Kidd, but he was long gone. That left me in 3 minds between Mo Williams, Andre Miller and Harris. I think Mo will be a bit more of a scorer than a passer this year, and i really need assists. I also don't think he has much upside from last year's numbers. I like Andre Miller, and it was very hard to not take him. In the end i plumped for Harris. He should have free reign to have a career season. If that equates to 15 points, 7 assists, about 100 3s and steals with nice percentages, i'll be happy enough. I'm not 100% over the moon with this pick (in hindsight, i probably should have gone for Miller), but if Harris lives up to his potential, it should work out ok.

Mike D
Leader
ID: 041831612
Sat, Oct 18, 2008, 12:33

4.10 Mo Williams, PG, Cle

Williams has averaged at least 17 points, 6 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.2 3-pointers in each of his past two seasons. I also like his percentages. He sort of reminds me a little of Billups. Mo will apparently be the second scoring option in Cleveland. I expect them to run a lot and that fits his game. He is poised for a career year and loves his new surroundings. Also considered Andre Miller and LaMarcus Aldridge.

Pacers Rule
Sustainer
ID: 910311210
Sat, Oct 18, 2008, 14:21

4.11 Ron Artest, SF, HOU
The last thing I wanted to do here was draft another SF or SG. I felt at this point in the draft, I was well stocked at these positions between Lebron and Joe Johnson. I was really hoping for a nice rebounding, shot-blocking PF or C, and preferably one who would not hurt me in the %s. I'd have liked a PG but felt in general people were reaching for PG's and there was not a good enough next PG to justify taking one here. The two guys I probably wanted the most here were David West and Andrew Bynum. I am really high on Bynum his year, but I just couldn't bring myself to take him over Joe Johnson. So I had to hope Bynum would make it back to me at 4.11. I realized when I didn't take West at 3.02 there was little chance he would still be on the board 20 picks later, but I was hoping Bynum might slip. As it was, he went a few picks before me. I probably would have looked at Hedo or Antawn if they would not have been taken, even though they did not fit my profile.

So...and I realize this is long but since you're hanging on every word...with no PG's or PF's that I thought were worthy of this selection, I had to take a long hard look at Artest. Playing for his last best contract, and playing alongside of *undrafted player* and Yao for a coach he likes and who likes him, on a team which has a legitimate shot for a title this year if all the stars align....Ron Ron has some serious upside. I watched a little Rockets preseason ball, and from what was said by the commentators, everyone associated with the organization pretty much is amazed at the athlete that Artest is, including his teammates, at least one of which said he looks like he should have shoulder pads and a helmet on. I've seen him in uniform from about 15 feet and I know exactly what they are talking about. His size is pretty amazing. And to have that bulk yet to have the quickness to guard starting SGs and pretty much any position he wants to is, well, unique. On offense, he can take his man to the post and abuse him, or he can can the three if he lags off. Really, the guy has all-star written all over him, if only he wouldn't have so many screws loose. Since I missed out on Paul's steals in round one and passed on Iggy's steals in round 3, I felt like Ron's steals in round 4 were just what the doctor ordered, even if his percentages might leave a little to be desired. I think his screws will stay tighter this year because of his contract situation, his teammates, his coach, and his overall team situation. I think he's going to have a lot of freedom in the offense, esp. with double teams on other stars, and the likelihood that at least one of them will miss a decent amount of time. I think Ron could blow up to 2nd round status easily this year, with only his %s keeping his value sub first round. Of course, he could also blow out, but I just don't think that is going to happen this year, unless the team implodes and starts losing, and he starts getting real selfish, in which case his Shooting %'s will take a dive and things will get ugly. Here's to hoping for the best.

for Holt
Sustainer
ID: 910311210
Sat, Oct 18, 2008, 14:39

4.12 Lamar Odom, SF, LAL

Artest was actually the guy I had at the top of my queue but Pacers took him the pick before. Odom is a contributor in all categories (I'd consider .698 ft% from a rebounder/blocker to be a good thing). Very solid across-the-board numbers. Unfortunately, there's news that he'll probably be the Lakers' sixth man. BOOOOO. I really hope this doesn't damage his value too much.

for Holt
Sustainer
ID: 910311210
Sat, Oct 18, 2008, 14:39

5.01 Rasheed Wallace, PF, DET

ft%, 3's, rebounds, steals and blocks all in one package. no serious weaknesses. Picking up players like Wallace who contribute in so many categories helps ensure I don't have any huge holes to plug near the end of the draft.

I briefly considered Dunleavy and Redd here. I decided against Dunleavy because I just don't think he can match or exceed his performance from last year. Maybe he will, but I didn't want to bet this pick on it. Also decided against Redd based on my expectation that his stats will drop a bit this season. I did briefly have both of those guys in my queue though.

Pacers Rule
Sustainer
ID: 910311210
Sat, Oct 18, 2008, 14:43

5.02 Mike Dunleavy, SG, IND
Well, I still didn’t like the available bigs here as much as I liked Ray Allen and Mike Dunleavy. The main problem with Allen and Dunleavy were again that they didn't get 'big man stats'. I thought Dunleavy was probably a third rounder or fourth at worst by his likely stats. He seemed to be slipping b/c he was injured and had not played in a preseason game. The Pacers did not seem worried about his knee, but seemed to just be very, very cautious about bringing him back too soon. I decided that I could trust the Pacers organization in blowing off his knee pain so I went ahead and pulled the trigger. He should remain a focus of the Pacers offense and this year, along side of Granger, and his stat line is nice and well balanced- again with good FT%. Allen I liked too but even though his FT% is stellar, he just doesn’t get to the line enough to put his %’s to work for you. I feel Dunleavy is going to get more minutes than Ray Allen this year, and other than 3’s, do more with them.

Mike D
Leader
ID: 041831612
Sat, Oct 18, 2008, 14:51

5.03 LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C, Por

I was happy to get Aldridge here and had almost taken him 5 picks earlier. I didn’t have any centers yet, and can plug him in there, or I can put him at PF. He can score on the block and out to 18 feet. Hard to say exactly what the “Oden effect” will be, but it’s possible Aldridge can build on last season's numbers. He had a tremendous camp and has set some lofty goals for himself. Rebounding, shot-blocking, decent percentages, and good scoring are what he’ll bring.

Florian
ID: 249231415
Sat, Oct 18, 2008, 22:35

5.04 Mehmet Okur C Utah

I briefly considered Redd and Wallace. I had Wallace on my team last year and wanted to pick him again, but having Larry Brown as coach is often a fantasy nightmare. I read an article where Brown praises Wallace and then goes on to state how he hopes Wallace learns to play better on the ball defense and stops taking as many chances (ie. attempting to steal the ball). That's exactly the opposite of what I want Wallace to do on when he's on my fantasy team.

Jerry Sloan said of Okur this preseason, "I've never seen him in this great of shape. Not since he's been here." And Okur can opt out of his contract at the end of this year. Those factors made me very comfortable taking Okur with this pick. I'm hoping Okur can match his production from the 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 seasons when he average 18 points, 8 rebounds, 1 3PTM, 0.7 blocks, 0.5 steals on 46% shooting.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 18, 2008, 23:05

for KnocksFan
5.05 Gerald Wallace, F, CHA

I really needed a big man at this point and was a millisecond away from drafting Horford or Bogut. Horford was my first inclination because I think he'll have a breakout sophomore season and because I have his phone number in my cellphone so if I needed to I could leave him inspirational messages during the season until he blocked my number.

Then I considered Bogut strongly, but I was worried that last season's block total was a fluke and maybe he would go back to what he did the first 2 seasons in the league.

In the end I decided I could get similar big-men later in the draft but I could not get a Gerald Wallace. Wallace is an injury risk but he fills the stat sheet in a ton of categories. Two seasons ago he was getting 2 blocks a game and I'm hoping that Larry Brown's defensive mindset will get Wallace back in that range. At the same time I was worried that he was the kind of player that could end up in the Brown doghouse, but I'll take my chances.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 19, 2008, 07:22

for Eurugollum
5.06 Andrew Bogut, C, MIL

With another run on Centers imminent, i decided to lock up a 2nd high quality C to pair with Amare. I like Bogut, and think he'll do well this year. I'm looking for 15 pts, 10 boards and about 2 blocks per game. His FT% is horrid, but he doesn't take a huge amount, and i'm doing fairly well on the FT% front already, i think. Bogut's improved each year in the league, and i think there's a chance for another significant step forward on a Milwaukee team that has quite a lot of weapons.

I thought about Okafor, Oden, Dalembert and Biedrins as well, and they were all gone pretty shortly afterwards.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 19, 2008, 07:23

for weykool
5.07 Michael Redd SG MIL
Nobody else really stood out here except Redd. I normally end my hoops drafts with a shortage of SG's so I am happy that he can fill that need there for me. Should give me plenty of scoring with a decent number of 3's. Very good FT% with the added bonus of geting to the line almost 7 times a game.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 19, 2008, 07:23

for deejay
5.08 Al Horford PF/C ATL

For that round I had a list of 5 players, who are all drafted in the meantime, so I can talk about them :)
Horford, Lee, Dalembert, Okur and Josh Howard.
I put Howard at the end because i didnt really want to draft and SG/SF at this point, but his upside, which I think will be seen under Carlisle, looks pretty good.
The other 4 are big men that qualify at C with (more than) decent shooting/ft %, thats what I wanted in this round in the end.
I opted for Horford because:
A. Dalembert (who I wanted handcuff to Brand) and Okur were gone
B. Was hoping and thinking Lee w/could drop to me in the next round(which he did)
C. I think will have a great year on top, he was already very good for a rookie, unless he hits the sophomore wall :)

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 19, 2008, 07:24

5.09 Mike Miller, SG/SF, Min
Ack! Not very long ago, my short list was Lamarcus Aldridge, Gerald Wallace, Al Horford, and Michael Redd.

When I look at my list of the best available candidates, I see Mike Miller, Ray Allen, and Richard Jefferson. Allen and Miller offer threes, but Allen’s age and playing time are worrisome. Part of Allen’s strength is also his 90% FT shooting, which I may or may not really need. In any event, since my ranking approach always seems to reward good percentage shooters, I’m always a bit leery of guys who derive disproportionate value from any of those stats. (Then again, that didn’t stop me from taking Bynum last round, with his prodigious FG%.)

Jefferson’s relative ranking is heavily dependant on scoring similarly to last year, but on a new team, I don’t know what to expect. None of his other stats are special, although again, his percentages are decent for a scorer.

Mike Miller is a guy I’ve never owned before, in any format. Not sure why. I think his combo of rebounds and treys will complement my roster well. I also like the G/F flexibility. I don’t consider this an inspired pick, or one with a lot of upside, but I do think he can provide valuable support in several categories.

Species
ID: 2931173
Sun, Oct 19, 2008, 12:24

For footwedge:

5.10 Emeka Okafor, PF/C, CHA
I was planning a big man here and I watched Aldridge, Bogut and Horford go in front of me so I went with my next choice. I really feel that Okafor may continue with 14-11 production with 1 steal and 2 blocks. A full 82 games at that rate would be real nice. Since his production has been consistent over four years I think he should remain about the same.

Species
ID: 2931173
Sun, Oct 19, 2008, 12:31

5.11 Andre Miller, PG, PHI

Damn! I wanted Okafor bad. He fit perfectly on my team, and his awful FT% was immaterial to my team. Hopefully somewhere down the line I return the favor and snatch someone he wanted.

I settled on Miller, who is an able point guard with good FG%. I wish he hit 3's, but he gets strong assists and decent rebounds for a guard. I also expect assists to go up with Brand on board too.

s R
ID: 54048267
Sun, Oct 19, 2008, 12:53

5.12 Jamal Crawford, SG, NY
He is coming off his best season ever and should get even better playing in run-and shot system. w Crawford will remain a focal point in the Knicks’ high-tempo offense.

6.01 Tony Parker, PG, SA
He is not a good free throw or three point shooter and his defensive numbers are sub-par. But he shoots a center-like percentage from the floor, scores a lot and posts good assist totals.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 19, 2008, 14:11

for Species
6.02 Samuel Dalembert C PHI
After getting screwed out of Okafor, I had to reassess my queue. I knew that I was short on blocks and didn't want to reach for shotblocking specialists who do NOTHING else (or worse, hurt you). In reviewing who was available, there were a bucket of similarly-ranked centers, each with their own strengths and weaknesses. This included Dalembert, Biedrins, David Lee, Jermaine O'Neal, Tyson Chandler, Ilgauskas and Greg Oden.

I posted a request to trade down, as I could have very easily taken almost ANY of those listed above. I got a message from Mike D after I took Dalembert, and he likely would have pulled the trigger had he not been distracted by some sports commitments. It would have worked to perfection as Chandler was there at his pick in this round, but alas he made the same conclusion that I did, which was that this whole group, including who was left, were all similarly valued and he didn't see the value in trading 'up' to get Dalembert.

I chose Dalembert due to his superior blocks to the rest. I almost took Biedrins but playing time under Nelson is always in chaos, and he isn't being projected with quite as many blocks as Dalembert.

If blocks were not a factor or need for my team, I would have taken David Lee.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 19, 2008, 14:11

for footwedge
6.03 Josh Howard SG DAL
I was thinking big at this point but felt Howard was the best available. I was tempted by Lee, Oden and Beasley but decided the uncertaintly of rookies and anyone in New York pushed me to take Howard. Even though he has been controversial this off season I'm hoping his production will stay the same on the court. 20-7 are the numbers I'm looking for here. The extra points will allow me a more one diminsional player later if I need a strong catagory guy who scores poorly.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 19, 2008, 14:14

6.04 Andris Biedrins, C, GS
My biggest stat weakness is on blocks, and I’d like to shore that up somewhat before the only shot blockers left have little else to offer. My first choice was Dalembert, but Species took him 2 picks ago. (He did offer to trade down, so I guess I should have pursued it – but I did not.) The other two centers on my short list were Biedrins and Oden. Oden will probably block more shots per game, but I am very worried about his durability. His track record over the past several years on that front is not encouraging.

David Lee is also center eligible, and I have him similarly ranked. But my sense is that taking Lee here would be tantamount to punting blocks, and I’m not prepared to do that.

Another possibility is Kirilenko. I actually have him ranked a bit higher than Biedrins. He wouldn’t fill a center slot, and he only seems to play about 70 games per year, but he does get a nice mix of stats across the board, even though he’s no longer the 5x5 threat that he once was. I strongly considered him – but decided I wanted a bit more of a discount to overcome the durability and PT issues (as he may come off the bench this year). Tempting, though.

Biedrins is 5 years younger (22), but not nearly as well rounded as Kirilenko. He missed 6 games last season, but played all 82 the year prior. He’s got the prototypical center stats – good rebounds & blocks, 10 ppg, a monster FG%, and a problematic FT%. He did raise his free throw shooting to 62% last year, a 10 point improvement over the previous year. Combining him with Bynum does give me some stress in that category, and I’ll have to be mindful of that s the draft proceeds. If Biedrins reverts to 50% from the line, I’ve got a problem – although I should still be able to outrank Species in that category!

Finally, I have him ranked #66 last year based on total stats. At pick #64, I think there’s a reasonable chance he can earn his keep.

deejay
Sustainer
ID: 501182710
Sun, Oct 19, 2008, 15:13

6.05 David Lee PF C NYK

With the big men going like sweet candy, I thought it would be wise to grab me one too.
Lee has a crazy FG% and a very decent FT%, playing under MD and starting should only boost his numbers, except the FG% part maybe.
Plus hes playing for a new contract which locked it up for me.

Also considered Maggette, but Lee was too tempting.

Mike D
Leader
ID: 041831612
Sun, Oct 19, 2008, 22:50

for weykool
6.06 Corey Maggette, SG/SF, GSW
The only players I was considering here were Lee, Biedrins, and Maggette. I knew Lee would be gone with a homer Knicks fan picking right before me but I was really surprised that Biedrins was taken. I guess I shouldnt be knowing that Guru is somehow using the same combination of draft sheets as I am.

Maggette will be moving to a new team. The wide open style that GS uses should suit Maggs very well. As a Clipper fan I can tell you there was always a burst of energy when Maggs came into the game. I always wondered why Dunleavy never went with his best players and started Maggs. Hopefully as a starter he can improve on his 17+ points, 5+ Rebs, and 82% FT with 8 attemps per game.

Mike D
Leader
ID: 041831612
Sun, Oct 19, 2008, 22:52

for Florian
6.07 Michael Beasley, SF/PF, MIA

As neither of my centers blocks many shots, I wanted to pick some who would get me blocks at this position. I was really hoping Dalembert or Biedrins would drop to this spot, but they went earlier in the round. So I resigned myself to picking Maggette as he had best player available value, but he got picked drafted with the pick ahead of me. I considering Oden, Jermaine O'Neal, and Kirilenko for their blocks, but all three have significant durability concerns. I considered Bibby and Ford, but hoped they would drop to the next round. So I picked Beasley. I don't usually pick rookies because they are so difficult to value, but I feel Beasley should get significant minutes for a rebuilding Heat team. I'm hoping he'll average 16-18 points, 8-10 rebounds, 1 steal, 1.5 blocks and shoot reasonable FG% and FT%.

Mike D
Leader
ID: 041831612
Sun, Oct 19, 2008, 22:53

for KnicksFan
6.08 Greg Oden, C, POR

I was targeting a big man who could block shots. I was hoping to get Dalembert or Biedrins in this spot but when they came off the board I was deciding between Beasley and Oden. I would have preferred Beasley but he was taken 1 pick before me so it made my decision easier.

I'm pretty happy I got "stuck" with Oden. Although he is completely unproven and last season was scary, he says he is healthy. They say he is like a young Shaq down low, so I'm hoping for young Shaq's defensive stats: 10 rebounds and 2-3 blocks. He should be able to get over 10 points per game just from put backs, dunks and free throws (hopefully he doesn't emulate Shaq in that category).

Mike D
Leader
ID: 041831612
Sun, Oct 19, 2008, 22:54

For Swish City
6.09 Mike Bibby, PG, ATL
Of my next 3 picks, this is one i feel happiest with, and that's not saying much. I literally had about 10 minutes to scan my cheat sheets and find someone to pick. Despite my Harris pickup, i'm still light on assists, so Bibby should at least help to rectify that. He'll also contribute a healthy dose of 3s.

Mike D
Leader
ID: 041831612
Sun, Oct 19, 2008, 22:55

6.10 Zydrunas Ilgauskas, C, Cle

I figured Z would give me decent points, rebounds, blocks, and he’s an excellent free throw shooter for a big guy. He’ll fit nicely as my second center. Considered Chandler, B. Miller, Jermo, among others.

Pacers Rule
ID: 195190
Sun, Oct 19, 2008, 23:44

6.11 T.J. Ford, PG, IND
Well, after taking 2 SFs and 2 SGs with my first five picks, and still not having a PG, I wanted to go big and/or go small here. Looking at Holt's roster at the time, he had a stud PG, but he was his only guard to go with a bunch of bigs. So I decided there was a high chance a PG I wanted here would not be around at 7.02, whereas I thought there was a good chance a quality big would slide through. I was pretty interested in J.O. and Tyson Chandler here and I was pretty sure Holt would not take both of them. I really felt Ray Allen was the BPA, but I had gone the BPA route for the most part so far, which is why I had ended up with my imbalanced roster, and I was not about to continue that trend indefinitely. So I passed on Allen and decided I needed a PG here.

Some may think T.J. was a reach here, but I really think (assuming he stays healthy) that he is going to surprise some people with his scoring and assists. He should get some nice steal totals and his threes will even increase moderately this year, which may not bode well for his FG%. His minutes are going to jump from last year, plus of course he won't (hopefully) be playing injured much of the season. I would have loved to have slept on him longer, but with this group he probably wouldn't have been around past these two picks. Plus, I think he's good value here.

for Holt
ID: 195190
Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 01:55

6.12 Ray Allen SG BOS
I'm too miserly to let a good bargain like this pass me by. I felt like an old man clicking his heels together after spotting a 60% off weather radio. This was just what I was looking for. A boost to points and 3's (while not heavily damaging my FG%).

for Holt
ID: 195190
Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 01:55

7.01 Jason Terry SG DAL
Stats very similar to Ray Allen's. Gives me more help with pts and 3's, good %'s, and a little support in assists and steals. Terry will be coming off the bench a lot. Maybe that's what scared everyone off. I don't think it's an issue though, as most of his playing time was from the bench last season and he still put up top 40'ish stats.

Pacers Rule
ID: 195190
Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 02:01

7.02 Jermaine O’Neal, PF, TOR
I thought about this one for a bit before I pulled the trigger due to J.O.’s injury history the past couple years. Ultimately, I really needed blocks here and J.O. seemed to have the most upside of my choices. I strongly considered Tyson Chandler as well, but realized he’s no lock for 82 games either. I’d have considered Big Z had Mike D not taken him, until I read that he had a ruptured disk in his back and took the summer off to recoup it – and hadn’t touched a basketball again until a few weeks ago. I hope it works out for him and Mike D, but he's no spring chicken. (and neither is Ilgauskas.) I read an article in which Mitchell said that J.O. had his explosiveness back, but was just out of sync, and that it would come for him. I also peeked at the average draft position on kafenatid and saw he was taken as early as the third round, so I decided it might be a decent risk at this point. Plus, since I waited so long for bigs other than Yao, I decided I needed to roll this dice a bit on J.O.’s upside. Plus, if you always take the safe picks, you’re less likely to find guys who exceed expectations. I was willing to take the gamble that J.O. would easily outperform his seventh round selection. He’s not playing for a contract or anything, but he’s wanted out of Indiana pretty much ever since he signed his contract and Bird came in and fired Isaiah, so perhaps we will be in for something of a renaissance as he tries to relocate his all-star and MVP candidate game. Since he plays a lot of defense, there’s a pretty good chance he’ll exceed 30 or even 35 minutes a game this year, if his knee is in fact all the way back - which he says it is. I hope the Raptors medical staff checked him out well before they took him.

Mike D
Leader
ID: 41831612
Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 08:46

7.03 Tyson Chandler, C, NO

Over past 2 years, offering 10 pts, 12 rebs, 1.5 blks, 62% shooting. A Team USA guy who had to pull out due to a toe injury that has healed. Could continue to improve his career best stats from last year while playing with CP3 who makes his, and everyone else’s life easier. Considered going in all sorts of directions here (G, F, C) but had looked at Chandler with my last pick, and figured what the heck.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 12:02

for Eurogollum
7.04 Richard Jefferson SF MIL
I badly wanted Jermaine O'Neal with this pick but he got swiped 2 picks before me. The other guy i considered was Luol Deng. I think i maybe should have taken him. Anyway, Jefferson will score with good percentages (i'm happy to have another high % volume FT shooter) and not much else on the side. Another very unsexy pick, but with #76, i think i'm at least getting a bit of value here.

I also have this slightly nagging feeling that the wheels are coming off my team a bit :s

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 12:02

for KnicksFan
7.05 Brad Miller, C, SAC

I was targeting Rondo, Felton, Kirilenko and Miller with this pick. In the end I thought I could get a point guard later (which I did), but these two big men were more scarce. Kirilenko was certainly tempting and he may have a resurgence playing with the B-unit instead of fighting for shots with the starters. Still, I wasn't too comfortable taking a bench guy here.

Brad Miller is that rare center who can contribute 4 assists per game and still rebounds well and even block a shot. Last season he got back into his "classic" form after a disappointing 06-07. Looking at his career stats it seems like 06-07 was the fluke and he isn't quite ready to decline just yet. I'm hoping to get a repeat of last year's performance.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 12:03

for Florian
7.06 Luol Deng, SF, CHI

I spent some time debating between Deng, Mcgrady and Kirilenko for this pick. I ended up going for the player I felt was least likely to miss significant time with injuries. I'm hoping Deng regains his form for 2006-2007 and manages to average 18 points, 7 rebounds, 2.5 assist, 1.2 steals on FG% of about .515.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 12:03

for weykool
7.07 Peja Stojakovic, SF, NOR

Nothing special with this pick. I needed some 3's and Peja seemed like decent value here.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 12:04

for deejay
7.08 Al Harrington, C, GSW

Well here I really wanted Peja, but weykool took him right before it was my turn, so over to plan B... Two jumped out to me being Kirilenko and Harrington. But which one I liked the most... I couldnt make up my mind and left Al Harrington as the first back up, something I regretted in the morning, and Guru then took Kirilenko right behind me, so my doubts got even stronger. Hope Al can have a good year, and drop me lots of 3s...

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 12:05

7.09 Andrei Kirilenko, SF/PF, Utah
I still don’t, have anyone eligible at PF, so this fills that need. AK-47 only seems to play about 70 games per year, but he does get a nice mix of stats across the board, even though he’s no longer the 5x5 threat that he once was.

For last year’s actual stats, I have him ranked about 55th. This is pick #81, which provides a nice discount. It’s uncertain whether he’ll be a starter this year, so I was a bit concerned about paying close to full value for last year’s results. I’d like to get 11 pts, 4 assists, almost 5 rebs, 1+ steals, 1.5 blocks, and a half trey per game. He shoots in the upper 70%s from the FT line, where he won’t compound the difficulties from my weak FT-shooting centers.

If Kirilenko had been gone, I’d have probably gone with either Rip Hamilton or Randy Foye, and filled my PF hole later.

Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 12:31

For footwedge:

7.10 Randy Foye, PG/SG, MIN

Hoping Foye is finally 100% and ready for a full year. His production was good after the all-star break last year. Averaging 14 points and 5 assists. I think those numbers should go up slightly maybe 15-6 plus a steal. Probably not my biggest need but too good to pass up.

Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 12:44

7.11 Leandro Barbosa, PG/SG, PHO

This is getting annoying. I had my heart set on Foye only to have footwedge screw me again right in front of me. Barbosa ranked near the top of both of my sheets so I looked closer. I needed threes and Barbosa, for a gunner, shoots a nifty FG% which is key for my team having tanked FT%. I needed the scoring and he does get a steal a game.

I certainly was concerned with the shift from D'Antoni's run-and-gun style to Porter's more pedestrian plodding, but hopefully instead of gunning 3's in transition Barbosa will end up with the same number of open looks via kickouts from Nash, Amare and 'undrafted'.

Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 14:11

For s R:

7.12 John Salmons, SF, SAC
For times last season, Salmons appeared on the verge of a star turn with the Kings, but constant roster shuffling really hindered his consistency. If his stats in 2008-09 resemble what he did as a starter last year he'd be a breakout candidate.

8.01 Al Thornton, PF, LAC
He is coming off a solid rookie campaign and with Elton Brand gone, I expect 30-35 minutes per game from Thornton.

Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 14:15

8.02 Zach Randolph, PF, NYK

John Salmons was atop my queue, but he was rightfully taken as he was highly rated on both of my sheets, and as the last 2 rounds since my 6.02 pick have shown, we are all working off of similar projections/rankings/whatever so I wasn't surprised to see him gone.

Z-bo is a huge enigma. Enormously talented down low, but seems to run himself out of town at each stop. He isn't very well rounded, but what he does do well, he does very well: score, rebound and shoot (FG%). Those were all things I felt I needed here so I went ahead and took him, even though I really don't "like" him per se. I am moderately concerned about his role in a D'Antoni offense....so we'll see.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 14:59

for footwedge
8.03 Raymond Felton PG, CHA

Going with the best available at this point. I'm betting against the decreased playing time rumors. Even if undrafted player develops I don't expect it would cut Felton's minutes much as he would backup at the 2 guard.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 15:00

8.04 Richard Hamilton, SG, Det
Nothing flashy here. Just a solid value pick to help solidify the scoring stats, with a positive contribution in assists and a steal per game. I have him ranked in the 65-70 range, both last season and this – and well ahead of anyone currently available who isn’t injured. Fits well with my needs, particularly since my FT shooting is suspect.

He was on a short list with Foye and Randolph, and when they both disappeared, the choice was not too difficult.

Mike D
Leader
ID: 041831612
Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 22:39

for deejay
8.05 Ronnie Brewer, SG, UTA
Initially I was looking to draft a PG here... Beno came to mind, but I was hoping he would fall to the next round. Rondo I didn't really want because of his poor FT%.

Then I saw Brewer and his steals. And that looked like a plan to me.

Mike D
Leader
ID: 041831612
Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 22:40

for weykool

8.06 Rajon Rondo, PG, BOS

Other players I was looking at were T-Mac and Ginobili.
I didnt like T-Macs declining numbers and his low shooting averages made him less desirable.
In the end it came down to wanting to fill my PG slot.
Not the best PG in the game but felt he may have the most upside of the PG's available.

Mike D
Leader
ID: 041831612
Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 22:41

for florian
8.07 Manu Ginobili, SG, SAS
I almost took Mcgrady with my seventh round pick. So when Mcgrady was still available in the eighth round it should have been easy to just pick him. But then the news came out that he may not be ready to start the season. So I obsessed about Mcgrady's injuries for some time. And ironically picked a player who will likely will be out the first 25 games of the season. And there's a fairly good chance that Mcgrady won't miss 25 games this year. Of course Mcgrady was taken with the next pick. So I'm suffering some buyer's remorse. We'll see how it all turns out.

Ginobili is an excellent fantasy player. He was ranked in the top 20 on Yahoo last year. The question is how many games he'll play this year and how much Popovich limits his minutes to keep him ready for the postseason. I'm hoping (probably somewhat unrealistically) that he'll play 55-60 games and average close to what he has the last two years (18 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.8 3PTM, 0.5 blocks, 46% FG%, 86% FT%).

Mike D
Leader
ID: 041831612
Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 22:42

for KnicksFan

8.08 Tracy McGrady, GF, HOU

He may be creaky, but he's freakin' T-Mac and it's the 8th round. I wanted to take Rondo in this spot but once he was taken, T-Mac was an easy choice. WHEN he plays, he will give me 5-6 assists, so he's just as good as most of the point guards remaining. He's also huge in rebounds, points, threes, and steals. He may be a killer in the percentage categories but my team stinks there anyway so I don't really care. He's T-Mac! THE VEIN!

Mike D
Leader
ID: 041831612
Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 22:43

for swishcity
8.09 Charlie Villanueva, PF, MIL
I quite like Charlie here. Now he has the PF job basically all to himself, i'm expecting a breakout type season. After the All Star break last season, he went on to average 15 points, 8 board, and almost one 3, block, and steal per game. If he replicates those numbers, i'll be very happy with this selection.

Mike D
Leader
ID: 041831612
Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 22:43

8.10 Beno Udrih, PG, Sac

I would have taken Randolph here had he lasted. I got my darts out and threw them around the room, when finally one landed on Beno. Considering he averaged 14.4 points, 0.9 3-pointers, 5.0 assists and 0.9 steals with 47.4 percent shooting from the field and 86.0 percent from the line in 51 starts last season, this is a decent value here. And he may even be able to improve those totals this year.

Pacers Rule
Sustainer
ID: 910311210
Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 23:31

8.11 Jamario Moon, SF, TOR
Basically here I felt I needed to continue to address blocks, and I just didn't like the shot-blocking bigs available here - at least to take this high. In retrospect, I may have missed it with Gooden. The worst part is, I had two runs at him because Holt didn't take him with either of his next two picks. I thought about Murphy here and he would have been a 'fun' pick, but since he's had the achilles injury and may have been a little bit under the radar, I thought there was a chance he could slip to me at the end of the tenth. I also thought I could delay my decision until 9.02 on him, and that I would feel better taking him after I picked up a block and a half a game in Moon. Moon's line is pretty decent overall, if you don't need scoring. He's one of those 'fill' guys that seems to be easily overlooked because he's not particularly excellent at anything, but overall he helps in a lot of areas. Of course, he's getting benched right now in preseason, but it appears to be a message from the coach to punish him for being late to camp and giving less than a full effort. I think he will wind up as a starter, though his minutes may not be as much as I would like early. Hopefully his defense will be the glue that keeps him in the starting lineup, and over the course of the season, he makes an eighth round contribution. If he comes through with the blocks, he will have earned his keep.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 22, 2008, 17:44

for holt
8.12 Troy Murphy PF IND
Murphy is PF/C eligible. I think he would have gone a round earlier if not for an Achilles injury (which he seems to be over now). I liked his combination of 3's, rebounds, and %'s.

Was hoping Kirilenko or Richard Hamilton would drop to this pick. I was 99% sure Kirilenko wouldn't make it back to me - oh well, but was more optimistic that Hamilton would be available (Guru nabbed him at 8.04).

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 22, 2008, 17:45

Continue for rounds 9-15

Forum: hoopPage 12907Subject: RIHC 2008-09: Draft Rationales (Rounds 1-8)

Forum: hoop
Page 12907
Subject: RIHC 2008-09: Draft Rationales (Rounds 1-8)