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Forum: hoop
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Subject: RIHC 2008-09: Draft Rationales (Rounds 9-15)

Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 23:10

Continuing on for the back half of the draft.

Rationales for Rounds 1-8

holt
ID: 29913193
Tue, Oct 21, 2008, 02:14

9.01 Thaddeus Young SF PHI

Can't draft just a bunch of old guys. Time to take some shots down-field. Thaddeus will start at small forward. don't know much about his defensive skills, but he's a great shooter and could be an offensive force. He shot over 40% on 3's in college so I think he could contribute there (in spite of the fact that he only contributed six 3's last season). we'll see.

Pacers Rule
Sustainer
ID: 910311210
Tue, Oct 21, 2008, 07:32

9.02 Kirk Hinrich, PG, CHI
I could use another PG at this point in the draft, and I think Hinrich has fallen far enough to draw my interest. He is pretty undervalued this year, IMO, due to everyone's assumption that Rose will dethrone him this year. I saw them both play in a preseason game and Rose has a bit of a learning curve yet. Hinrich will still be leading the Bulls and even if minutes are not extreme, should definitely put up servicable PG numbers for the ninth round.

Mike D
Leader
ID: 41831612
Tue, Oct 21, 2008, 09:31

9.03 Drew Gooden, PF, Chi

Gooden averaged 14.0 points and 9.3 rebounds in 18 games with Chicago last season. He then spent a month this summer in Vancouver and worked with renowned sports physiotherapist Alex McKechnie. ''He's basically the creator of the core board,'' Gooden said of McKechnie, who has helped train NBA, NFL and NHL players. ''With my little injury I had last year, that was the main focus this summer, to strengthen that area. I'm going to continue to do that throughout the season.'' After several weeks of core-strengthening work with McKechnie, Gooden claims he's in the best shape of his seven-year career. That's impressive to this GM.

As the only proven frontcourt scorer on the roster, Gooden might get a lot of offensive chances this season. Playing time also should be in abundance. He’ll help solidify my frontcourt, and will likely have Center eligibility at some point. Also considered Kenyon Martin.

KnicksFan
Sustainer
ID: 030815418
Tue, Oct 21, 2008, 12:54

for Eurogollum
9.04 Gilbert Arenas, PG, WAS
How lucky do you feel? I certainly feel lucky enough to take a risk of getting a 75% healthy Agent Zero with the 100th pick. Of course, there's a chance that Gil might not play at all this season. On the other hand, 60 games would contribute a massive amount of points, 3s, assists and steals to my totals. Given that it's round 9, and i already have 2 starter quality PGs, i'm totally cool with this gamble. Even if he doesn't get back to 100%, there's a very good chance for Arenas to outdo this draft position.

The other thing that convinced me was that i could immediately stash him and pickup a hot FA to start the season with. If Gilbert comes back strong, it could catapult my team up the standings later in the season.

KnicksFan
Sustainer
ID: 030815418
Tue, Oct 21, 2008, 12:58

9.05 Jameer Nelson, PG, ORL

I still had only drafted 1 PG and the number of starting PGs was dwindling. Jameer Nelson is a pretty solid, run-of-the-mill PG (11 points, 6 assists, 1 steal, 1 three). The best thing about him is with the departure of Carlos Arroyo there is really no viable backup in Orlando. Nelson only averaged 28 mpg last season. That number is going to increase 5-10 minutes this year. Hopefully his numbers improve accordingly.

Florian
ID: 272433110
Tue, Oct 21, 2008, 13:10

9.06 O.J. Mayo SG Mem

Memphis traded for Mayo. They seem intent on giving him every chance to succeed. Other than Gay there aren't really any proven scorers on Memphis. In the five preseason games so far Mayo is averaging 14 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 2.2 steals and 2.2 3PTM in 28.5 minutes. With an expected increase in minutes during the regular season, I'm hoping Mayo can continue to average somewhere near his preseason numbers.

I also considered Ben Gordon and Rafer Alston for this pick.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2008, 13:15

for weykool
9.07 Tayshaun Prince SF DET
Was happy to have Tayshoun fall to me here. Wasnt really looking at anyone else. Solid stats across the board and I felt it was very good value for the 9th round.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2008, 13:15

for deejay
9.08 Anthony Parker SG TOR
Again I passed on the PG's left, since I still felt they were all a reach, Parker is/was ranked 53th based on last season, too good to pass on.

He starts, can shoot the 3, and has a more than decent FT%...Combine that with Delfino not eating his minutes anymore....I think I got a pretty good deal here.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2008, 13:16

9.09 Marvin Williams, PF, Atl
Two names on my short list survived: Francisco Garcia and Marvin Williams.

Garcia is 26, Williams is 22. Both have 3 years of NBA experience. Both have the opportunity to pick up PT due to departures of other players (Artest and Childress.) Both are currently nursing minor injuries, which should presumably be of no lasting consequence. Their prior year stats produce similar rankings for last season. And their stats are somewhat similar except in treys and rebounds - Garcia would provide more treys, while Williams helps more in rebounds. Garcia offers SG/SF flex, while Williams is a SF/PF.

From a positional standpoint, Williams is a better fit, as Kirilenko is my only other PF, while I have two other SG/SF already. And while Williams doesn’t provide the prototypical PF stats, he does have the benefit of a favorable FT%, which I would find quite useful.

Frankly, I have no strong basis for a decision. My sense is that Garcia might turn out to be the better all-around fantasy player, but I think Williams complements my team profile better at this point. In any event, I’m not going to be any smarter if I think about this for awhile longer, so I’m pulling the trigger.

Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Tue, Oct 21, 2008, 14:01

For footwedge:

9.10 Kenyon Martin, PF, DEN

Looking for a consistent rebounder and after playing a pretty full year and Camby gone I see a lot of boards with a decent scoring and over 1 steal and block.

Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Tue, Oct 21, 2008, 14:28

9.11 Rafer Alston, PG, HOU

Congratulations footwedge....that's THREE odd-numbered "screw Species" picks in a row. I was all settled on taking Kenyon Martin with this pick. Allow me to write your rationale for you: Kenyon Martin offered excellent value at this point in the draft. He played relatively injury free last year, and with Camby shipped out is poised for a nice run as DEN's PF. Martin offers an excellent FG%, decent boards (that should go up) AND offers up in excess of 1.25 steals and blocks a game! His only chink in his armor is a poor FT%

So, having been screwed yet again (btw, footwedge, check your FT% because I think you are going to suck there), I had to reassess my board. Skip-to-my-Lou is a very flawed player who shoots an atrocious FG%. But, with my team's focus on FG%, I felt I could afford the hit. I plugged him into my spreadsheet, and interestingly Alston's bricks actually did have a significant affect on my FG% - lowering it from a projected 48.0% to 47.0%!!

I felt I could absorb that, as last year I believe I led the RIHC in FG% somewhere in the 47.5% range....and because I have known all along that I would try to take Shaq to bolster FG%/blocks/boards for the 50 games he will play, it was just a matter of when I would take him (Answer: Round 11). Anyway, Alston does offer several things I needed at this juncture: assists (5.5 per), threes (120-ish for the year) and steals (1.5 per) and with Ron Ron playing alongside Yao and McGrady, hopefully Alston doesn't have to shoot too much, save for ripping open threes.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2008, 14:33

for s R
9.12 Marc Gasol C MEM
He 's more of a bruiser than his big bro and has nice hands. He will likely push for the starting gig in Memphis. He could be in line for low-end double digit scoring and solid rebound and block totals.

10.01 Andrea Bargnani C TOR
There are some who see Bargnani as a PF or C, but his love of the perimeter and reluctance to go into the paint make him almost SG. Sixth man, great preseason.

Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Tue, Oct 21, 2008, 14:42

10.02 Francisco Garcia, SG/SF, SAC

Reading Guru's rationale brings a smile to my face. I had Marvin Williams and Garcia ranked pretty similarly as well, and would have been happy with either one at this juncture. But for my team, Garcia fit in just a little better, so I hope it works out for both of us.

Being near Sacramento I have been able to watch Garcia grow. He has become a leader and sparkplug off the bench, and a clutch shooter. He is fluid and plays a smart game. With Artest finally shipped out, it has been assumed that Salmons will take over at SF (which he should, he was fantastic when called upon to start last year). Garcia will basically be the bench guy in a 3-man SF/SG rotation with Kevin Martin and Salmons, as all 3 are fairly interchangeable. There will probably be times when all 3 are on the floor at the same time as well. I firmly believe Garcia will consistently get 25-28 minutes a game in that role, and if Martin or Salmons go down, will be a 35 minute a game starter.

This puts Garcia in the 14 ppg, 1.3 threes, 1.3 steals and 0.7 blocks a game range, which is just fine for round 10 in this league. I see little downside to these projections, to go with some upside. The Kings will be bad this year and Garcia is their #1 scorer off the bench and will be counted on in that role to try to make comebacks against the other team's bench.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2008, 14:56

for footwedge
10.03 Nene Hilario, C, DEN

Pretty much a flier here. If he can stay healthy he should produce decent numbers for a late rounder.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2008, 14:58

10.04 Ben Gordon, SG, Chi
A contract conflict and a stubbed big toe have dampened enthusiasm for Ben this year. But last year, he put up numbers worthy of a 6th rounder, so even if he fails to match last year’s output, a 10th round pick provides a lot of discount. I note that he was taken in the 8th round of both AAA leagues.

I would have preferred Francisco Garcia, who I almost took last round. But Species took care of that option. I also considered a range of PF/C types, but could not make a compelling case for any of them.

My third UConn alum. He’ll help in scoring, treys, and FT%, with some contribution in steals and assists. His 43% FG shooting should not be a problem for this team.

deejay
Sustainer
ID: 501182710
Tue, Oct 21, 2008, 15:53

10.05 Anthony Carter PG DEN

I had to get a PG here, no matter what.
So I started looking around and nothing much jumped out, so I went for the non-exciting/safe road, and opted for AC, who should start for Denver.
He steals some which is a plus.

weykool
ID: 45821208
Tue, Oct 21, 2008, 23:17

10.06 J.r. Smith PG DEN
JR should build on his 10+ points/g and 2+ 3's.
Last year he showed flashes of brilliance and I'm hoping he can perform on a more consisten basis this year.

Mike D
Leader
ID: 41831612
Wed, Oct 22, 2008, 08:23

for Florian
10.07 Derrick Rose, PG, CHI
As Calderon was my only PG to this point, I really felt I needed another one. And taking Rose would mean that I had drafted the top three picks in the 2008 draft. That seemed like too good an opportunity to pass up.

Rose was the first overall pick in the this year's draft. The Bulls are going to give him minutes if for no other reason than to justify their using the first pick on him. So even if he struggles to start the season, he should get plenty of playing time. I'm hoping for 13ppg, 4 rebounds, 5-6 assists, some steals and 3PTM.

I also considered Tyrus Thomas (for his enormous potential), Ridnour and Ricky Davis for this pick.

Mike D
Leader
ID: 41831612
Wed, Oct 22, 2008, 08:24

for KnicksFan
10.08 Tyrus Thomas, PF, CHI
Perhaps more than every other pick I was sweating this one out the most as it got closer to my turn. I almost took Thomas in round 9 but figured there was a good chance he would drop to me in round 10. Luckily I was right.

Tyrus has had a huge preseason, racking up points, rebounds, and blocks at an alarming rate. Not only that, but he has hit 90.6% of his free throws (29-32) which would be a big bonus from a big guy. Originally projected to be coming off the bench, Thomas is now the starting PF. I am hoping he can give me a double-double with 1.5 blocks and 1

Mike D
Leader
ID: 41831612
Wed, Oct 22, 2008, 08:24

for swish
10.09 Rudy Fernandez, SG, POR
So, is a sleeper really a sleeper when the whole fantasy world is talking about him? I guess not, but i don't care. It feels a good place to take Rudy with pick 121. I'm light on guards, and i especially need another SG eligible player, with Granger my only one so far. The big question is - what exactly can we expect from Fernandez this season?

Everyone knows about his Olympic exploits, but i think he has an incredible chance to play big minutes in a 6th man role for Portland. He's electric from 3 point range, and i fully expect him to be able to fill the hole left by injuries at the SF position for Portland.

I'm excited.

Mike D
Leader
ID: 41831612
Wed, Oct 22, 2008, 08:25

10.10 Ricky Davis, GF, LAC

Had 4 players in my queue, and when I returned home I was on the clock. Pacers Rule could have chosen my top Q guy but gave me a little time, which was cool. I ended up taking a Q guy anyway, but not the guy I had on top.

I’ve always liked the way Davis contributes in many categories and he has managed to earn playing time everywhere he has been. I think he’ll find his share this year at SG, SF, and even as a PG at times. For a 10th round pick, he could provide a nice boost.

holt
ID: 29913193
Wed, Oct 22, 2008, 15:20

for Pacers Rule
10.11 Nick Collison C OKC
Solid but unspectacular is what you get with Collison. He is a workhorse on the boards and will average close to a double-double for the season. Unsurprisingly, his value jumps as a starter. Last year, in 26 games starting at the 4, he averaged 33.8 minutes, 11.5 points and 11.7 rebounds on 49.5 percent shooting from the field.

Collison is a blue collar worker, but we all need role players. He's reliable. I think he's very solid 10th round value - esp. since my pool of bigs is pretty...small.

holt
ID: 29913193
Wed, Oct 22, 2008, 15:40

10.12 Mike Conley, PG, MEM

I drafted Conley last season and it didn't work out at all. He was a rookie, so what was I thinking? This time around I expect things to be different. This will be Conley's breakthrough season and he will be drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round next season. Maybe. Yeah, he's a Grizzly. I don't think 15 pts and 6 assist per game are too far-fetched.

holt
ID: 29913193
Wed, Oct 22, 2008, 16:00

11.01 Joakim Noah, C, CHI

Right now it looks like he'll be Chicago's starting center (but Tyrus Thomas may push him for playing time). He had some nice games late last season. In April he played 9 games averaging 31 minutes, 11 ppg, 7 reb, 1.7 ast, 1.6 stl, 1.7 blk. Hopefully he'll continue building off of that.

Pacers Rule
Sustainer
ID: 910311210
Wed, Oct 22, 2008, 20:31

11.02 Micheal Pietrus, SG, ORL
Not a super sexy pick here. I almost went with Ellis here, but decided I needed the 'guaranteed' stats instead. Pietrus should put down some threes but won his spot on my team for his defensive stats.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 22, 2008, 22:17

for Mike D
11.03 Chris Duhon, PG, NYK

I considered a lot of guys but kept coming back to Duhon. I love his new role as the Nash of NY, and feel he is in for a career year. That means nice assists, FT%, steals, and some 3s. I came very close to taking Wilson Chandler but felt Duhon fit my team a little better at this point.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 22, 2008, 22:17

for swish
11.04 Wilson Chandler SG NYK
Mike D'Antoni has a habit of making talented players look very, very good within his helter-skelter offense. I'm counting on that with the prodigous Chandler, who has shown signs of a major breakout through the end of last season and in the preseason. He's another one of those rare guys that can get close to 1/1/1 territory. I feel convinced that he'll eventually win the starting SF job, and produce like a Shawn Marion very-lite. Even if he doesn't, it seems like he'll average at least 25 mins, which is more than enough to produce the across the board numbers that would make him a worthy pick at this point. He's also GF, helping to bump up my meagre guard total by another body.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 22, 2008, 22:17

for KnicksFan
11.05 Boris Diaw C PHO
I rushed this pick and didn't do much research, but after some post-pick research I think I made a decent selection. I think this season Boris' role will increase and he'll get back to something resembling his peak year stats. He and D'antoni had issues but under a new coach maybe he'll be reinspired. There's a chance that he'll get to start over Grant Hill. I'm expecting 10 pts 6 reb and 4 assists.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 22, 2008, 22:18

for Florian
11.06 Luke Ridnour PG MIL
I considered drafting Ridnour in the last round, so when he was still available I was happy to take him.

Now that he's getting a new opportunity to play, I'm hoping/expecting Ridnour to revert to the form he showed in Seattle from 2004-2007. During that time he averaged 11 ppg, 6 assists, 2.5 rebounds, 1.3 steals, 0.7 3PTM, 42 FG%, and 84 FT%.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 22, 2008, 22:18

for weykool
11.07 Rodney Stuckey, PG, DET

Stuckey showed that he can lead a team last season. I am banking on Billups not being able to log as many minutes as compared to prior years. If Billups goes down or tires down the stretch then Stuckey should pay huge dividends.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 22, 2008, 22:19

for deejay
11.08 Raja Bell, SG, PHO

I really want Stuckey here, but that didnt work out too well, Señor Weykool decided against that. So I had to look further... Which brought me too Bell and Barnes. Doubted between them, but opted to go for the one that is certain to start. The amount of 3PTM he (hopefully) brings sealed the deal.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 22, 2008, 22:21

11.09 Monta Ellis, PG, GSW
OK, I’ll bite. IF Ellis hadn’t gotten injured, he’d probably have been gone before the 3rd round was complete. Maybe the second round. Certainly not later than the 4th.

But of course, he is injured. And although the latest official word seems to be for him to return in mid-December, I’ll bet it is later than that. For purposes of my analysis, I assumed he would not be back to “normal” until the halfway point of the season (late January). If he equals or betters that date, this is good value. Of course, if he never fully recovers this season, it’s a busted pick. But as an 11th rounder, it’s not like I’m putting a lot at risk here.

Ellis is only my second PG, and my first rounder, Deron Williams, looks to miss a few game at the outset of the season. So my PG situation will be tenuous at best. Could be stellar or cellar.

Since Monta has not played much in a Baron-free zone, it’s hard to know exactly what to expect. But last season, his per-game stats were worthy of a #40 ranking overall, and I’d think that there is upside from there. I’ll stuff him in a IR slot, pick up a free agent for now, and see how things go.

If Monta had already been taken, I’d probably have taken Jeff Green or Kevin Love. Maybe one of them will still be around for round 12.

Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Wed, Oct 22, 2008, 23:24

For footwedge:

11.10 Luis Scola, PF, HOU

Real happy to get Scola here. I see a lot of potential here. He's the guy who can play off the ball produce solid stats after the big three. I'm hoping for 10-12 points 7-8 boards and good percentages.

Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Wed, Oct 22, 2008, 23:26

11.10 Shaquille O'Neal, C, PHO

I decided to stop playing Russian Roulette in terms of when to take Shaq. For my team he is a pretty low risk, reasonable reward pick here. His FT%, obviously, is immaterial. But his FG%, scoring, rebounding and blocks are very material. Hopefully he plays 50 games.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 23, 2008, 09:40

for S R
11.12 Jason Maxiell PF DET
His long arms and excellent explosiveness make him a very good rebounder and shot-blocker. He is a high-percentage shooter who needs to work on his offense, but defensively he's ready to break out into eight or more rebounds and two blocks.

12.01 Matt Barnes SF PHO
Barnes one of the NBA's most gritty and energetic role players. He's hot and was named the starter.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 23, 2008, 09:41

for Species
12.02 Linas Kleiza, SF, DEN

I too found that I needed a forward to round out my squad. I also thought my 3's needed a little boost. Kleiza has really been coming into his own as an emerging bench player for Denver. He shoots a decent FG%, hits 1.5 threes a game and will grab some boards too. I saw him in person last year hit a last second three to win a game, and he was all over the place in that game. With Marcus Camby shipped out, and the brittle Kenyon Martin starting in Denver's frontcourt, there could be some injuries along the way that will increase Kleiza's minutes. I expect a little uptick from his stats from last year.

I will probably regret not taking Amir Johnson in this spot. His blocks would have been really nice. I got a little greedy with Kleiza's 3's and should have realized that it would be easier to fill in 3's than it is blocks. I also had Blatche and Battier on my radar.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 23, 2008, 09:41

for footwedge
12.03 James Posey, SF,NOR

Lots of options at this point and Posey should either start or be the 6th man and with CPaul running the show shots should abound for all on Hornets.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 23, 2008, 09:42

12.04 Jeff Green, SF/PF, OKC
A second year player, but with more seasoning that most 2nd year players since he spent three years at Georgetown. His rookie averages don’t tell the story, because his minutes and stats increased steadily over the season, and in his last 10 games averaged 15.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.1 steals, and .5 blocks in 36 minutes. That’s a good starting point for this season.

deejay
Sustainer
ID: 501182710
Thu, Oct 23, 2008, 10:32

12.05 Ryan Gomes F MIN

A big man that can shoot FT%s and play multiple positions was mainly the idea here.
So that brought me to Gomes, who had a good year last year and is ranked 88th based on last season.
Considered him previous round, but figured he could drop which he did.

Florian
ID: 272433110
Thu, Oct 23, 2008, 12:13

for weykool

12.06 Marcus Williams, PG, GS

This is more of a flier pick for me. Marcus has the talent to be a decent PG in the NBA. The big question is will Nelly allow him to showcase that talent? I am banking on Marcus seeing a decent amount of PT even if he is not named the starter. It seems like Nelly is always benching someone for the most insignificant reason.

Florian
ID: 272433110
Thu, Oct 23, 2008, 12:14

12.07 Chris Wilcox PF/C OKC

I looked at my draft grid and discovered I needed another forward. So I felt a need to draft one with this pick. I considered Haslem and Wilcox. Both should also have center eligibility. I also considered Robinson due to stellar play so far this preseason. However I decided to stick with the plan and draft a forward. Haslem and Wilcox both have similar statistics. I ended up drafting Wilcox because his position/role seem more defined, and I was less worried about him missing significant time with injury.

Wilcox should provide similar numbers to the last few year: 13-14 ppg, 7-8 rebounds, 0.7 steals, 0.5 blocks and most importantly FG% of 53%. His main flaw is FT% (64-68%), which I feel my team should be able to absorb at this point.

KnicksFan
Sustainer
ID: 030815418
Thu, Oct 23, 2008, 12:34

12.08 Earl Watson, PG, Oklahoma

I wanted to shore up the PG slot because Jameer Nelson doesn't get huge assists. For a few rounds I've had my eye on Ramon Sessions because he played insane basketball at the end of last season. However, news out of Milwaukee looks like he may not even be the first backup at this point. I figured the safe choice was Watson.

Earl is a solid point guard because he racks up a lot of assists in short amount of time. Last year in under 30 minutes per game he racked up close to 11 pts, 7 assists, and 1 steal. Now that Luke Ridnour is gone, his minutes should go up a bit. "Undrafted Player" might push him for playing time, but I doubt he will ever drop below his minutes from last season, so I'll consider last season's stats as his floor.

Swish City
Dude
ID: 0931275
Thu, Oct 23, 2008, 13:30

12.09 Andray Blatche, FC, WAS

Of all of the players i've selected thus far, Blatche could well be the most volatile in terms of what he'll achieve this season. I've been suckered in (again) by his potentially amazing hustle stats. With the startling lack of frontcourt depth in Washington, he should be guaranteed 25+ mins per game if he can stay out of foul trouble. As we've seen from Blatche before, this does not necessarily mean production. He does seem to perfom better in the starting lineup than off the bench (11p, 8r, 1.9b, 1.2 st in 15 starts last season) and if he could produce numbers like that over a season, i'd be ecstatic. Yet another player to add to what is fast becoming an All-Breakout team!

I'm also glad to have a 3rd C on board that isn't a total scrub.

Mike D
Leader
ID: 041831612
Thu, Oct 23, 2008, 18:51

12.10 Udonis Haslem, PF, Mia

To get a consistent double double threat with the 142nd pick is terrific in my book (that I still have yet to write). FG%, boards, and double digit points are what this high character guy brings. It’s likely he will also eventually qualify at center, which is nice for roster flexibility.

Mike D
Leader
ID: 041831612
Thu, Oct 23, 2008, 19:26

for Pacers Rule
12.11 Amir Johnson, PF, DET
Still suffering from block envy here and wide-eyed at the lack of quality big men remaining, I decided to take a flyer on Amir Johnson, apparently part of the Pistons’ half-hearted attempt to remake themselves. I don’t know that he’s going to get huge minutes, with both Antonio McDyess and Jason Maxiell working their way into the rotation, but he’s going to get more than he’s had in the past, and he’s shown some strong promise – esp. with his athleticism and blocks. Young players tend to continue to improve and I’m hoping he’ll have a breakout year, or at a minimum, a solid enough year to help salvage my big man stats and hold down his 12th round spot.

Mike D
Leader
ID: 041831612
Thu, Oct 23, 2008, 19:26

for holt
12.12 Kevin Love, C, MIN

Mike D
Leader
ID: 041831612
Thu, Oct 23, 2008, 19:27

for holt
13.01 Ramon Sessions PG MIL

Mike D
Leader
ID: 041831612
Thu, Oct 23, 2008, 19:27

for Florian
13.02 Nate Robinson, PG, NYK
After picking Wilcox in the previous round, I started to think more and more about the potential production Nate could be capable of in D'Antoni's uptempo offense. He has been tearing it up in the preseason. He's averaging 19.8 ppg along with two 3PTM in only 26 minutes of playing time. I thought about how much it would bother me if he actually played anything like this in the regular season. Fortunately I managed to trade up to get him.

I see Nate in the sixth man role in New York, similar to Barbosa's role in Phoenix under D'Antoni. I'm hoping for 16 ppg, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal and 2 3PTM per game. If Nate manages that production I'll be thrilled.

Mike D
Leader
ID: 041831612
Thu, Oct 23, 2008, 19:30

13.03 Shane Battier, SF, Hou

He’s recovering from a foot injury, but Battier will be back, and will be stuffing stat sheets across America. He’ll get time at SF and PF, and help me in 3s, rebs, steals, and some blocks. A very underrated and underappreciated fantasy performer.

Swish City
Dude
ID: 0931275
Thu, Oct 23, 2008, 19:57

13.04 Antonio Daniels, PG, WAS

I've got Arenas, so it makes sense to handcuff Daniels to him. He didn't overawe last season filling in for Gil, but i needed to pad out my assists, and if Daniels can give me about 10 points and 5 assists on decent %s before Arenas returns, that's all i'm after at this point.

KnicksFan
ID: 188563018
Thu, Oct 23, 2008, 22:50

13.05 Bobby Simmons, GF, NJ

I feel really good about this pick. Bobby Simmons will be starting on a really weak team. He is the second or third scoring option after Vince Carter & Devin Harris. He'll also be getting starter minutes for the first time in a couple seasons. I am hoping he will get me something like 15 points, 6 rebounds, and some other miscellaneous stats. He's a pretty good FT shooter too.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 24, 2008, 11:10

for Pacers Rule
13.06 Stephon Marbury PG NYK
Besides being weak on bigs and blocks, I still felt I was weak on PG’s so I was looking for at least one more solid guy at that spot. Really though, this pick was more of a dice roll, because the news was breaking that D’ Antoni was benching Crawford for the immediate future, and starting Stephon and Nate at least in one preseason game and perhaps more in the future. Of course, Florian talked me into trading away my 13.02 and then promptly snagged Nate. I decided I still wanted in on a little of that D’ Antoni backcourt action so I took Marbury in the hopes that he might end up even being a role player who earns the right to 25 to 30 minutes. That should equal points, assists, and steals, and maybe even a three. Who knows. If he sucks up enough and makes nice with D’ Antoni and somehow earns a starting job, he could prove a ridiculous steal in the thirteenth. I’ll probably keep him on the bench for a while before I cut him if he doesn’t work out immediately, just for the “what if” upside.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 24, 2008, 11:10

for weykool
13.07 Rashad McCants SF MIN
Not sure what to expect from McCants. He is a decent player and can put up some decent stats when given the playing time. We will see how much time he gets playing behind Miller.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 24, 2008, 11:11

for deejay
13.08 Jordan Farmar PG LAL
I really needed a PG here, and the options were pretty limited. Ended up with Farmar, because I believe Fisher will be rested enough this year, resulting in Farmar seeing enough Pt(I hope).

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 24, 2008, 11:11

13.09 Daniel Gibson, SG, Cle
I was hoping McCants might last until here. I was hoping Battier might slide through. I was thinking of taking Farmar. I was even thinking of taking a flyer on Marbury.

Not to be.

I’m not sure exactly how “Boobie” Gibson fits in to the Cavs rotation this year, but he averaged 30 minutes/game last year, and I hope he can approach or exceed that this year – although he won’t likely exceed it unless someone gets injured (or someone stinks it up.) I could use some support in 3s, which he should provide. He won’t provide a lot of anything else, but he will provide a little of everything else.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 19:47

for E'ville Destiny
13.10 Grant Hill SF PHO

After several years of solid production I like Grant in the late rounds. He produces good as a substitute to fill games. Just looking for 30-40 games as fill in here.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 19:48

for Species
13.11 Darko Milicic, PF, MEM

In these rounds it is a crapshoot. You are usually taking players with undefined roles at positions still up for grabs. It had long been felt that Hakim Warrick would start at PF for Memphis, but in many of the preseason games the enigmatic Milicic was starting alongside Marc Gasol. It's tough to tell what will happen, but to take a flier on someone with huge block potential, who is a good shooter and decent rebounder at the end of round 13 seemed like as good a gamble as anything.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 19:48

for s R
13.12 Yi Jianlian, PF, NJ
He's more comfortable shooting from the outside facing the rim and New Jersey could end up using him as a small forward, a role that better suits his skills. He will be given big minutes on a Nets team that is not deep.

14.01 Spencer Hawes, C, Sac
Brad Miller remains the starter in Sacramento, but Hawes is the future of the Kings. When Miller was sidelined last season Hawes produced strong numbers in scoring, rebounding and blocks. I expect Hawes to take over the starting role at some point this season.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 19:49

for Species
14.02 Steve Blake, PG, POR
As noted in my Milicic rationale, everyone in these rounds has question marks. Blake is Portland's starting PG, but between Rudy Fernandez, Jerryd Bayless and Sergio Rodriguez nipping at his heels, combined with the fact that Brandon Roy is a very capable floor general in his own right, it clouds the prospects for Blake. Blake can put up some decent assists and threes, both of which I need. If not, he's waiver fodder.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 19:49

for E'Ville Destiny
14.03 Travis Outlaw PF POR

Should get decent minutes on a productive team. Good flier to fill missed games by starters. Also has potential to improve as team starts to mesh.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 19:50

14.04 Kendrick Perkins, C, Bos
So far, I have only two players who are center-eligible, so I need a backup. Perkins started for the Celtics last year, although he averaged only 24.5 minutes per game. He also appeared in 78 games, which was his career high.

He’ll contribute rebounds and blocks, but not much else. I’d like to have the luxury of leaving him on my bench, but my roster has a high DNP risk, so I’ll probably have to use him early and often – as long as he’s healthy and reasonably productive.

I considered a handful of other guys, but went with Kendrick because I felt most comfortable with his playing time situation.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 19:51

for deejay
14.05 Paul Millsap PF/C

When looking at my team, I noticed Blocks wasn't really my strongest asset... Millsap blocks some, is not awful in FT and can play at C.
Considered X and Y, but found Millsap was the one with the most upside and or PT...

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 19:51

for weykool
14.06 Andres Nocioni SF CHI
Another flier pick here that I am hoping will see enough playing time.
Players at this stage of the draft are notorious for being a crapshoot.
I find the more I study the players this late in the draft the worse my picks are.
Strictly a gut pick here.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 19:52

for Pacers Rule
14.07 Jarrett Jack, PG, IND
Well, it’s funny I ended up with Jarrett, because with all the Pacers I was grabbing, I was sure someone was going to snag him before I got a chance. I really didn’t want him for his pure stats, b/c they’re probably not going to be that good. I mostly wanted him as T.J. Ford insurance, because while I hope T.J. makes it all year, there’s a good chance he’s going to miss a handful of games. And when he does, Jack should be nice. Jack is going to play some backup 2 guard also this year, as O’Brien wants to push the ball a lot and having two ball handlers out there at the same time only helps with that. In addition, Jack is an able defender and at 6’ 4” with a strong build, he will earn his minutes on both sides of the ball. The clincher for me with Jack here was that Dunleavy is now hurting with his knee. If he is out, that’s great news for Marquis Daniels, but also opens up more time for Jack and some time for Brandon Rush, who looks to be a real nice player as a rookie. Marquis has a nice overall line at times, but he’s just been too injury plagued and too inconsistent to take him over Jack at this point. I see Jack getting maybe 20 to 25 minutes a game at both positions and we'll see from there. Again, here in the second to last round, he's as much insurance as anything, but we'll see.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 19:53

for KnicksFan
14.08 Brook Lopez, C, NJ

All my team's needs were met at this point so I just looked to draft the best player I could find. Lopez is my 3rd dedicated center, and 5th center-eligible player. I'll use him as insurance in case Oden gets hurt or Brad Miller loses playing time to Hawes. Lopez had a great preseason and hopefully will continue to contribute in points, rebounds and blocks throughout the season. The question mark is whether Josh Boone will steal his playing time when he returns.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 19:53

for Swish City
14.09 Anderson Varejao, FC, CLE
I was looking for a rebounder at this point, as most of my F eligible players are more like 5-7 rpg players as opposed to 8-10 ones. Varejao should be primed for a nice season spelling the fading Ilgauskas and Wallace in the frontcourt. I'm expecting a near double-double with close to a block and a steal per game. Add in his C eligibility, and that's pretty fair value for the tail of round 14.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 19:54

for Mike D
14.10 Jammal Tinsley, PG, Ind

As always, the ends of these drafts are always much harder for me because I see so many players that I’d like to take a flyer on. Since I feel pretty good about my team so far, I decided to go with a guy with a huge upside in Tinsley. Small risk in the 14th round, high reward (Tinsley of a few years ago……or even parts of last year).

Disowned and disrespected by the Pacers, he’s not just sitting around at home playing video games and eating big macs (I hope). Rather, sources tell me he’s getting up at 4:30am, making raw egg shakes, and running long distances (and past several McDonalds). It’s only a matter of time, days even, before he’s traded. Denver has been mentioned many times. Wherever the Tinsinator ends up, he’ll unleash his arsenal of assists, steals, and 3-pointers (some of which might even go in). At least until the next muscle pull.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 19:55

for Pacers Rule
14.11 Brandon Bass, PF, DAL
I was a little surprised to see him still available here, and since I still felt like I needed another PF or C type, I decided to pass on Marquis Daniels with this pick. I am a little concerned Bass will not get off the bench behind Dirk, but given that Stack is hurt (foot) and that they've been playing Bass at C in an uptempo look, I felt his upside could not be overlooked here. I guess we'll see whether he ends up getting the minues to produce. Probably what will happen is that he will not get the minutes initially, I will cut him, and someone else will take him off the wire as it's announced he's the new starter for Dallas. I'll try to prevent that from happening but this is just the sort of player which that can happen to you.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 19:56

for holt
14.12 Hakim Warrick SF MEM

15.01 Jerryd Bayless PG POR

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 19:56

for Florian
15.02 Delonte West SG Cle
Delonte is capable of decent production if he manages to win the starting SG spot. If not he'll likely end up on the waiver wire before long.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 19:57

for Mike D
15.03 Louis Williams, PG/SG, Phi

This cat would be a fantasy star if he had the minutes. He’s too good to sit, and just signed a new deal in the off-season. Whether in place of Miller or alongside him, Sweet Lou was worth a flyer in the 15th round by a fellow Sixer (at heart).

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 19:58

for Swish City
15.04 Trevor Ariza, SF, LAK
Man, if DeMarcus Nelson works out as the starting PG in GS, i'm going to kick myself. I was looking for a final flyer pick, and put Nelson's name in the box several times before spotting Ariza's preseason boxscores. The steals especially stuck out.

It seems likely that Ariza could be my first roster casualty unless he can carve out 30 mins behind Radmanovic, Odom and Walton at SF.

Buyer's Remorse sucks :P

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 19:58

for KnicksFan
15.05 Marquis Daniels, SG, IND

I was surprised to see Daniels drop to my pick since Pacers Rule has been trying to assemble the whole Indy roster.

I didn't really know what to do in this round. Considered Demarcus Nelson but I already had enough scrub point guards and didn't need another one. The guy I almost drafted was Sean May but he has been so bad in the preseason, always in foul trouble. Daniels is a swingman with GF eligibility, and has put up outstanding preseason numbers. I think he'll be one of the first guys off the bench, hopefully getting around 25 minutes per game.

I have drafted Daniels in about 8 leagues since his late-season breakout with Dallas a few years ago. I am hoping this season he actually lives up to his potential. If not, I will draft him in round 15 next season.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 19:59

for Florian
15.06 Demarcus Nelson PG GS

C.J. Watson is out indefinitely with an elbow injury. And apparently Don Nelson hates Marcus Williams. But somebody has to play the PG position. So Demarcus should get his chance to show if he's able to play as an NBA point guard. We'll see if the rookie can stay on Nellie's good side.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 19:59

for weykool
15.07 Antonio McDyess PF DET
Another late round flier.
I needed to add another PF as most of my PF will be logging time at the center postion.
My expectations are low for McDyess and if he fails to meet those expectations he could be on the waiver wire rather quickly.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 20:00

for deejay
15.08 Russell Westbrook PG OKC

Targeted DeMarcus Nelson here, but Florian took him, so to plan B, which was Westbrook who looks like someone that can fill the stats some.
I certainly hope he gets to start at some point...

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 20:01

15.09 Derek Fisher, PG, LAL
Last year, my 14th and 15th round picks were Jose Calderon and Kenyon Martin. How sweet was that! Both started for me all season long, and probably were key factors in my ability to finish 2nd. They certainly offset some draft mistakes in the earlier rounds!

I doubt that Kendrick Perkins and Derek Fisher will be as productive this year. But I’ve taken Fisher as a late round pick in several leagues over the past few years, and he always seems to be playable, and do better than his pick status would suggest. As the starting PG for the Lakers, he should be playable again. But he’s not going to do for my team what Calderon did last year. And for that reason, maybe I should find a sexier pick.

As the oldest guy on roster (34) and a man of good moral fiber, I’ll look to him to provide veteran leadership, if not minutes. I guess.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 20:01

for E'ville Destiny
15.10 Corey Brewer SF MIN

Looking for a solid defender to fill in some steals with the potential of turning into a solid producer in other categories.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 20:02

for Species
15.11 Mario Chalmers, PG, MIA

A shot in the dark. I had Demarcus Nelson at the top of my queue before CJ Watson got hurt. But when Watson got hurt it sent Nelson up atop several queues I'm sure.

Chalmers was Kansas NCAA tournament hero. He is certainly more skilled than Chris Quinn to handle the point in Miami....I would imagine it's just a matter of time before he does so. Whether it is soon enough to see a start on my roster is in question.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 25, 2008, 20:02

for s R
15.12 Nick Young, SG, Was
With Arenas scheduled to miss the opening of the season, I expect Young to receive big minutes early on. While he doesn’t provide a lot of versatility, he can score in bunches and has a great outside shot, he should get run.

Forum: hoopPage 12913Subject: RIHC 2008-09: Draft Rationales (Rounds 9-15)

Forum: hoop
Page 12913
Subject: RIHC 2008-09: Draft Rationales (Rounds 9-15)