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Forum: hoop
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Subject: Dirty Dozen Experts Roto League

Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Tue, Oct 09, 08:56

I've been invited to participate in an "experts" fantasy basketball league this year. There are 12 managers in this league, which is being organized by fantasyref.com. Here's the slate of managers, along with their affiliation:

Michael Fabiano - CBS Sportsline
David Klyce - Hoopsklyce.com
Chris Liss - RotoWire
Mark Bond - Jackpot Sports
David Gonos - Fantasyef
Adam Slotnick - Jackpot Sports
Brian Doolittle - TSN
Timothy Ludwig - Fantasyref
Corey Roberts - Stats.com
Matt Cummings - Fantasyref
Dave Hall - RotoGuru.com
Marlon McRae - CBS Sportsline

The league will use standard roto scoring with 8 traditional categories: points, assists, rebounds, steals, blocks, 3-pointers, FG%, and FT%.

The (email) draft begins today, and managers select in the order listed above, with even numbered rounds using the reverse order. There will be 13 rounds in the draft, and each team must select 5 guards, 5 forwards, and 3 centers (positions to be determined based on NBA.com). During the season, 10 players will be active each week, configured 4-4-2.

Draft results will be posted after each round at fantasyref.com (I'll post the actual link for this when I find out), along with a short analysis for each pick.

This draft should be an interesting preseason exercise, and I thought I'd use this forum to track the draft as we go along, and also to solicit your feedback.

Here are the first two picks:

1 - Shaquille O'Neal (Fabiano)
2 - Kobe Bryant (Klyce)

prefek
ID: 12920910
Tue, Oct 09, 11:14

Good Luck, Guru!

allhair allstars
Sustainer
ID: 5734610
Tue, Oct 09, 11:36

Represent!

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 09, 11:57

3 - Tim Duncan (Liss)

rfs @ work
ID: 2094598
Tue, Oct 09, 11:59

I'm a little surprised TD was taken before Webber and Garnett.

Predict they will be #4 & #5?

rfs

tduncan
ID: 47616279
Tue, Oct 09, 12:03

I was really surprised with the bryant pick. duncan is a good pick 3rd overall. he is now healthy (unlike last year start), and he has outside the shooting (smith) to open the new zone defenses.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 09, 12:12

4 - Kevin Garnett (Bond)

Actually, unless Duncan improves his FT shooting, he shouldn't have gone so high. Ditto for Shaq, even though he always seems to go #1 in this type of format. Last year, ESPN ranked him #13 based on final averages. Using per game averages, Garnett ranked #1, Bryant #2. (Using averages doesn't reflect any downtime due to injuries, which would have impacted both Shaq and Kobe. Since Kobe had some substandard games during the last month, a healthy Kobe might have ranked #1).

Bryant might be the best pick of the top 3.

DR Stars
ID: 162592010
Tue, Oct 09, 12:55

Using that same logic, and the fact that Shaq will probably be hurt for a while, why pick him so high? And we should see TMac pretty soon.

E'ville
Leader
ID: 29017810
Tue, Oct 09, 12:59

Real suprising. Duncan & Shaq were catagory killers last year (FT%).

This game is a huge advantage for the multi-catagory player(the more catagories the better). Kidd & Hill used to be the king in this type game. Hill could be if he is 100%. McGrady should be tough also. Jordan also very good in this game.

biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 3502218
Tue, Oct 09, 13:06

Interesting, Guru. You got dissed with the 11th pick! I'm sure you will make it (and the 14th) count, though.

In the 4th round of my draft right now. Different format, however. Still should be interesting for me - particularly in the later rounds to see who the "experts" think are legit sleepers. Of course, since I am in a (up to) 6 man keeper, I am interested in the "deep" sleepers. lol.

Do us proud!

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 09, 13:42

5 - Dirk Nowitzki (Gonos)

Nowitzki is probably a legitimate first rounder, but #5 sounds rather optimistic, as he doesn't contribute much in assists or steals.

I agree that Shaq should probably not be the #1 pick in this scoring format, but I'm surprised at how many "experts" assume he should be. He virtually guarantees a last place ranking in FT%, he contributes nothing to 3 pointers and steals, and his assists are only average. Admittedly, he can dominate the other four categories, but add in his propensity to get injured, and I don't think he's an obvious first pick at all. Maybe not even an obvious first rounder, in spite of the fact that he does fill a position that tends to be lean.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 09, 13:54

6 - Chris Webber (Slotnick)

tduncan
ID: 47616279
Tue, Oct 09, 13:54

I don't agree: the fact is, you have to start 2 centers. what center shoot 80% FT or have 2 steals a game? of course the shaq FT situation is pretty extreme, but he still gives you a huge advenges in 4 categories. at guard, look for steve francis to have a big year. he can contribue in all the 8 categories, and nobody sims to be very high on him. guru he might fit you perfectly with the 14th pick.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 09, 14:02

I doubt if Francis will slide to 14.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 09, 14:08

BTW, tduncan, your point about the relative stats for centers is valid, and that's why his value is higher than what the raw numbers might suggest. Shaq's biggest detriment is that his FT% is SO-O-O-O bad that he completely destroys one category, and he also tends to distort the team's needs for the rest of the draft, which can be either good or bad, depending on who's available.

But, at least as far as this draft goes, that's all water under the bridge.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 09, 14:09

7 - Tracy McGrady (Doolittle)

rfs @ work
ID: 22929914
Tue, Oct 09, 14:31

I'm very interested to see where "experts" rate Grant Hill.

Will he be his 1999 self?
Will T-mac hurt his overall stats?

rfs

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 09, 14:49

8 - Allen Iverson (Ludwig)

DR Stars
ID: 162592010
Tue, Oct 09, 14:53

Guru- Who do you want for 11 - 14?

rfs @ work
ID: 22929914
Tue, Oct 09, 14:59

Wow, maybe Kidd falls to #11, Payton?

I'll take a shot in the dark and say Finley @ #14?

rfs

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 09, 15:19

9 - Vince Carter (Roberts)

tduncan
ID: 47616279
Tue, Oct 09, 15:37

kid's #'s are gonna go down significally this year. he just doesn't have anyone to pass the ball to, and with the new zone defense his below average outside shooting will hurt him as well.

on the other side, this could be a big year for stephen marbury. think about it, he passed last year over 8 APG to jonnie newman and kandel gill. along with marion they can be one of the most dominating G/F duos in the leage.

DR Stars
ID: 162592010
Tue, Oct 09, 15:42

But I think Kidd will need to score more, he also has KVH, and an improved 2000 ROY.

Janitor
ID: 20913318
Tue, Oct 09, 16:09

recap
1. Shaq
2. Kobe
3. Duncan
4. Garnett
5. Nowitzki
6. Webber
7. McGrady
8. Iverson
9. Carter

I never liked roto leagues. Who cares about free throw percentage and three pointers? Anyways, good luck Guru.

E'ville
Leader
ID: 29017810
Tue, Oct 09, 16:24

I think these guys are drafting who they would like on a real life team not a fantasy stats team. I love Iverson and Shaq at crunch time but they may both miss decent time this year.

Kidd is looking good 9.8 asst (over 1 better than next best) 4th in steals. Boards excellent. A good combo pick with Ray Allen (major 3's + high percentage and average)

Won
ID: 2926917
Tue, Oct 09, 17:26

I went over to fantasyref.com and didn't even want to try to mosh through the horrible user interface they have. I was hoping to to find an ongoing update for insight into picks.

Fatal Image
ID: 35601219
Tue, Oct 09, 18:01

I'm very interested to know where Jordan gets drafted too..

I like Guru's chances here.. with a few dubious picks ahead of him, he'll have some nice players to choose from

miguel p
ID: 37883020
Tue, Oct 09, 18:09

I think Kidd is the best player currently available. Let's hope the guy with #10 doesn't take him (I'm assuming we're pulling for Guru here . . .) If Kidd goes next, maybe Francis, MJ, Payton for #11?

Drew Wilson
ID: 6917619
Tue, Oct 09, 18:47

Anybody thinking about Jordan? He was the greatest player ever, and won't let himself do poorly! Snag him!

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 09, 22:28

10 - Antoine Walker (Cummings)
11 - Ray Allen (Hall)

Allen has deceptive value, as he is a monster in 3 pointers (2.5/game) and FT% (almost 90%). Those categories would be underweighted in a true assessment of value, but in this fantasy scoring system, they are just as important as assists and rebounds. Allen is also somewhat unique in that he gets a lot of treys while putting up a favorable FG% (48%).

Allen might have slipped through to the 14th pick, but the next guy has 2 consecutive picks, and then I pick again. It's unlikely that he will take two point guards, so that should leave either Kidd or Francis for my 14th pick. I'd be happy with either. Then I'll start working on the big men.

Santa
ID: 47312017
Wed, Oct 10, 07:46

What happened Guru??? I don't see your name on fantasyref??? And the draft appears to be over!

Texas Flood
Donor
ID: 12458220
Wed, Oct 10, 08:13

FWIW, a few years ago our roti league went form a draft to an auction. I really like the auction format because everyone gets a shot at the players they would really like to have. as far as drafts go it can be an advantage to draft 11-12 because you get 2 high draft choices right off the bat. with slim pickin's at center if you're drafting late it almost forces the owner to go for steals, %'s, 3fg's & assts.

watch the %'s these are categories that once you fall behind you're in trouble and you can't trade for for them.

Guru, good luck and keep us posted on how you're doin! TF

tduncan
ID: 47616279
Wed, Oct 10, 08:17

guru, what are you planning to do with your next picks? (3rd and 4th rounders). you will have to sit 20 picks now.

assuming you will take either francis/kid (or payton if the next guy picks them both) with your next pick, you will pretty much have to go with a big man on your next pick.

as far as I can see it, you will have 2 options:

1. ben wallace: the guys is a monster. 10 rebs and 5 blocks in 24 minutes last night in preseason action. he will give you strong "center" numbers, and also good FG%, but he doesn't score a lot and bairly pass assists.

2. raef lafrentz: this guy pretty much assures you the 3-pointers category. lasy year he had 51 3PM. the next C after him was sam perkins with 38, then derek coleman (who is not really a C) with 20. after that duncan with 7. only 22 centers made 3 pointers last year, with 12 of them making only 1 shot. he also had OK center #'s with 12.9 PPG, 7.8 RBG, and 2.64 BPG.

just my 0.02$

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 10, 08:30

12 - Mutombo
13 - Mourning

I'm back up, and I have a choice of Francis or Kidd. (I wish he'd have taken one or the other!)

Francis offers better balance across statistical categories. Kidd offers big assists and steals, but hurts FG%. Kidd does fit well with Allen, however.

This raises the question as to how Kidd will mesh with his new team.

Hmmm...

Meanwhile, I'll need to look at big men next. It's a little hard to assess who will be available then, but guys like Rasheed Wallace (gulp), Camby, LaFrentz, Ratliff all have to be on the radar.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 10, 08:31

Santa[31] - our draft is not yet listed on fantasyref. The draft you were looking at is the basketball portion of a four-sport league.

I'll post a link for our draft when it's posted, probably in the next day or so.

tduncan
ID: 47616279
Wed, Oct 10, 08:36

go with francis. the adition of rice gives this team strong outside shooting to open the zone defenses, and francis will use this for his killer drives. francis is an all star this year, and kid's numbers will go down with the fathetic nets.

the guy before you opened everything with the 2 centers pick. I don't think ratliff will make it back to you, and also rasheed. robinson, jermaine o'neal and camby will probably be picked as well.

BillB
Sustainer
ID: 21925108
Wed, Oct 10, 08:52

Go with Stevie, Guru...JK may find a dismal season in NJ this year IMHO.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 10, 09:03

14 - Francis (Hall)

I went with Francis. In my ranking system, he scored slightly higher. He's still probably on the uptrend, while Kidd has likely leveled off. Also, a new team and new zone rules introduce more uncertainty into Kidd's stats.

Kidd may turn out to have been the better choice, especially in combo with Allen. But the risks were there.

With an Allen/Francis combo at guard, I need to watch that I don't overdo my 3-pt category.

Now it will be interesting to see how the big men start to topple. It can be costly to get shut out of respectable centers. But the value of Allen & Francis was too tempting to resist.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 10, 11:27

15 - Paul Pierce (Cummings)

rfs @ work
ID: 499141011
Wed, Oct 10, 11:31

Guess: Gary Payton #16
: Karl Malone #17

rfs

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 10, 11:44

or possibly Kidd or Marion.

rfs @ work
ID: 499141011
Wed, Oct 10, 11:56

I downgraded Marion a notch ths year in my personal rankings because of the team's change at point guard.

I think Kidd looked for Marion (in the right spot) first before other options or to score first himself -- yes, I know that's an obvious statement, but the "in the right spot" is the IMPORTANT part.

I think Marbury will look to score first (sometimes) then look to pass. When you do this, sometimes you deliver the ball 'wherever' the scorer is at that moment.

This is just an observation / theory.

rfs

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 10, 11:57

16 - Jason Kidd (Roberts)

DR Stars
ID: 162592010
Wed, Oct 10, 12:06

I Agree on Marion rfs. Also I'm surprised GP hasn't been drafted yet.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 10, 13:09

17 - Rasheed Wallace (Ludwig)

biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 3502218
Wed, Oct 10, 13:38

Re: GP - I think folks avoid, sometimes to a fault, players who are down-trending. Gary's numbers dropped off a bit last year. Personally I think the numbers he put up were still excellent, and he will put up similar numbers this year, provided he can stay healthy.

I drafted him just after kidd, but would have taken him before kidd even if kidd was available. Francis was protected.

Mike D
Donor
ID: 1922423
Wed, Oct 10, 22:13

FWIW, Antoine Walker looked tremendous tonight. I know he is up and down, but he had high numbers in at least 4 important categories tonight (pts/reb/ass/steals). He also has that youthful exuberance and a slight chip on his shoulder, which are possible pluses.

coldwater coyotes
Leader
ID: 5965479
Thu, Oct 11, 11:32

update???

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 11, 11:52

We have an 18 hour time limit. After 22 hours, we finally bypassed Doolittle. Whenever he shows up, I guess he gets to slide back in.

18 - Jerry Stackhouse (Slotnick)

Curious, as Payton and Marbury are still available. I don't even have Stackhouse ranked in the top 30.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 11, 12:35

Doolittle just appeared, and picked Jordan. So let me restate the last two picks:

18 - Michael Jordan (Doolittle)
19 - Jerry Stackhouse (Slotnick)

coldwater coyotes
Leader
ID: 5965479
Thu, Oct 11, 13:45

I would have thought that this is too high for Jordan given the potential risks including injury. Don't forget Odom in your considerations

darkside
Leader
ID: 516203012
Thu, Oct 11, 13:57

Will Odom's numbers be as good this year w/ Brand on the court?

rfs @ work
ID: 389101114
Thu, Oct 11, 14:12

I think Odom will have better pts & asst numbers.

I think a more valid question is will Brand's numbers approach 20/10 w/ odom and the young guns and the court?

rfs

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 11, 14:18

20 - Shawn Marion (Gonos)
21 - Gary Payton (Bond)

Janitor
ID: 20913318
Thu, Oct 11, 14:27

recap
1. Shaq
2. Kobe
3. Duncan
4. Garnett
5. Nowitzki
6. Webber
7. McGrady
8. Iverson
9. Carter
10. Antoine Walker
11. Ray Allen (Guru pick)
12. Mutombo
13. Mourning
14. Steve Francis (Guru pick)
15. Paul Pierce
16. Kidd
17. Rasheed Wallace
18. Jordan
19. Stackhouse
20. Marion
21. Payton

tduncan
ID: 47616279
Thu, Oct 11, 14:36

IMO the best duo so far is garnett-payton. both of them slipped, and the same guy got them both. guru is looking strong too. the guy with both the celtics is looking good also with this kind of scoring system.

skinneej
Sustainer
ID: 159241222
Thu, Oct 11, 15:02

Jordan definitely went too high. In 98, Jordan's last season, he ranked 15th on the overall player ratings in a traditional 8 category roto league. Compared to that season, I believe his points will be down, his assists up slightly while a slight drop in rebounding, steals and blocks. Overall I see him as a 30-35 pick. I expect he will only average 30 minutes a game in the early going, and probably never see more than 40 in a regulation game.

DR Stars
ID: 162592010
Thu, Oct 11, 15:19

Why would someone pick both mutombo and mourning?

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 11, 15:21

Georgetown fan?

The Bandwagon
ID: 46919821
Thu, Oct 11, 15:59

Grant Hill anyone? Too much of a risk? I think I'd be taking that risk pretty soon.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 11, 16:19

22 - Grant Hill (Liss)

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 11, 18:22

23 - Karl Malone (Klyce)

The Bandwagon
ID: 46919821
Thu, Oct 11, 18:46

Odom, Rahim, Rose, Marbury, B.Davis, are my guesses for the next few picks.

tduncan
ID: 47616279
Thu, Oct 11, 19:52

my guesses:

marbury and rahim
brand
finley
odom
camby
jermaine oneal
jamison

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 08:34

24 - Elton Brand (Fabiano)
[end of round 2]
[start of round 3]
25 - Antawn Jamison (Fabiano)

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 08:46

26 - Raef LaFrentz (Klyce)

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 10:08

Time to be planning ahead. Given my first two picks, I think I need to ingore guards and look at the front line, with particular concern for boards and blocks.

At center, the best three remaining are probably Ratliff, D. Robinson, and Camby. I'd probably rank them in that order, although Camby's discount is only because of his injury likelihood. Robinson's age is certainly a concern as well. But these three seem to provide better stats than the next group of centers, which would include Jermaine O'Neal, Divac, Olajuwon, and perhaps Ben Wallace. I don't think any of those make sense as a 3rd or 4th round pick - although I'm interested to hear what you think of Jermaine's potential. I should probably take a look at his stats development over the course of last season.

Among forwards, the short list includes Stojakovic, Abdur-rahim, G. Robinson, Odom, and perhaps Fortson. Stojakovic is a bad fit for my team, because much of his value comes from 3 pointers. Abdur-Rahim is on a new team, and that may affect his numbers (Kukoc and Ratliff are probably a better supporting cast than what he's used to, but will that help or hinder?) Odom might be the best of this group, given his statistical balance and young age. Robinson is mostly a shooter, so again is probably the wrong fit for me. Fortson can certainly put up attractive numbers, but for how long? That would be a big injury risk.

Other forwards to consider are Donyell Marshall, Kenyon Martin, and Anthony Mason. Donyell really came on during the second half last year. Ditto for Martin, until his injury. Mason offers nice statistical balance (I've had good luck with him in the past), but it would first be nice to know where he'll be playing.

There are still 8 picks before my next choice, so many of these names could disappear.

Any advice? Any names or trends that I'm overlooking? This will be for the 34th and 37th picks overall, so it's probably a little early to be considering sleepers.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 10:30

27 - Stephon Marbury (Liss)

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 10:48

28 - Glenn Robinson (Bond)

migdallion
ID: 4394280
Fri, Oct 12, 10:50

i think if odom is left you have to take him. same with shareef whose numbers will remain solid. i suspect, however, that they will both be gone.

stay away from big dog and stojakovic (as you mentioned) simply cause you don't their strengths.

I think you are underrating ben wallace who had a very solid year last year, and will have an even better year this year. he is particularly valuable to you given your first 2 picks. it might be a bit early for him in round 4- though i'm not sure it is- but i would urge you to heavily consider him for round 5. Jermaine is not going to get all the boards in indy this year b/c they plan on using foster a lot more, though he would be a fine pick in round 5 i suppose. divac is not a rebounding or block machine and you need both categories.

stay away from mason- no matter where he plays he wont have nearly as vital a role as he had last year on the heat.

good luck, and keep us posted

rockafellerskank
Donor
ID: 4911539
Fri, Oct 12, 11:14

It looks to me like of the owners picking infron of you:

DG needs a PG as does AS (both are in need of assist) That means Cassell & Miller go in either order?

BD needs Reb's/Blk's/FG% perhaps Robinson?

TL needs assts, perhaps Van-x or Bibby?

CR may need some fg%, perhaps Ratliff goes here?

MC needs REB's/fg% , I could see McDyss going here since he will get anothe rpick in 5 more selections.

Guru- I think Odom may be the best player on the board. If McD is sitting thee on round 4, will you take a chance on him? I think a 4th round pick may be OK to sit him on the bench early of if you can hold ground on REB's. perhaps the alternative is (gilp) Camby

rfs

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 11:15

29 - Jermaine O'Neal (Gonos)

Guess I can stop digging into his statistical trends.

DR Stars
ID: 162592010
Fri, Oct 12, 11:15

I disagree on J. Oneal, I think by playing PF/C he'll get as many minutes as lst year, plus he's in better shape and should have a more complete season. He's a great shot blocker and a good rebounder. IMO he';s better bet than an already injured Camby, a fregile Rodinson, and a fragile Fortson. Of course if Fortson can stay healthy he's a huge contributor in rebounds.

As far as Forwrds Odom is the best pick of those mentioned.

prefek
ID: 23954129
Fri, Oct 12, 11:19

By the way, it seems a little slow to update, but the draft board on Fantasyref is up.

Draft Board
Dirty Dozen Main Page

OSU Rules
Sustainer
ID: 15372315
Fri, Oct 12, 11:22

I am curious where people would put Battier in this type of format. Seems like he has potential in a lot of the categories. He should get plenty of minutes on a bad team.

I am not sure I would put him in front of the players prefek listed, but I am curious about projections for him this season.

BTW, I have never played in one of these types of roto leagues, but it seems like they would be a lot of fun. I really like the challenge of the draft.

prefek
ID: 23954129
Fri, Oct 12, 11:27

The best players currently available are (near as I can see):

PG: Andre Miller, Sam Cassell, Nick Van Exel, Mike Bibby

SG: Michael Finley, Reggie Miller, Eddie Jones

SF: Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Lamar Odom, Predrag Stojakovic, Jamal Mashburn, Jalen Rose

PF: Antonio McDyess (injured), Danny Fortson

C: Theo Ratliff, David Robinson, Marcus Camby, Antonio Davis

Depending on what Mason does, he or Brian Grant's value could shift a bit.

(All IMHO) [Updated] [Edited because I didn't know Guru had Ray Allen]

chuckball
ID: 507352011
Fri, Oct 12, 11:34

I think you have to start considering K-Mart, with Kidd passing him the ball you've got a potential for 18/10/2.5 and possibly 2 blocks/game. If you take a look at his last half of the year this isn't much of a stretch and that was with Marbury hogging the ball.

Odom's numbers I think will decrease and he frustrated me on my team last year with his suspensions and tiny injuries, but even if he stays about the same statwise he doesn't help you as much in the categories you need reb/blk.

I also like B.Wallace, sooner or later you'll need a center and since you have to pick 3 total, I don't think it's premature in the fourth round. If you go F-F in your next two picks you are going to be left with the dregs at C...hoping Calvin Booth and Todd Maculloch have breakout years (not that it's impossible, but I wouldn't want them as my first centers taken in the draft). Also look to the fact that he will dominate in your two worst categories and he looks to be a solid 4th rounder to me. (My judgement may be a little skewed as we don't take into account fg% or ft% in my league, so take that with a grain of salt).

Good luck...

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 11:35

prefek - I have Allen, not Kidd. Ergo, my lack of immediate interest in Stojakovic.

Also, while the draft pages are now posted at the links you provided, they are still a developing work in progress, and in some obvious need of design work in some facets. But it's a start. I also notice that they load and display much better with MSIE, as opposed to Netscape. Netscape seems to have more and more problems dealing with multiple nested table formats, both in load time and graphic organization.

I think a 4th round pick is too early for McDyess. He's reported out until February, and even that must be considered speculative. Then, how long will it take him to get into game condition?

Of course, with Camby, I may also get 3 months of downtime. It'll just be spread out.

Shelby-villian
ID: 261146232
Fri, Oct 12, 11:42

Are there any other transaction details in
regard to injured reserved, trades, and
waivers?

This is going to be very tough with a bench of
three players- whoa. In addition to injuries,
basketball is very schedule dependant. If you
are only allowed weekly lineup changes, this
affects players a lot, as some play 5 games,
some only 2.

Basically what I'm trying to say is, stay away
from injury prone players like Camby and
Fortson and grade McDyess way down then in
a normal draft.

OSUrules- I'll be starting a roto yahoo league
once its online. You are more than welcomed
in my league.

OSU Rules
Sustainer
ID: 15372315
Fri, Oct 12, 11:47

S-V thanks for the invite. I am interested, so I will watch for more info. If necessary drop me an email.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 12:00

The problem with Ben Wallace is a 34% FT percentage. That's sub-Shaqian!

FT% (and FG%) are tricky categories to rate. The other categories are strictly additive, but the percentage categories are not. Thus, someone with a terrible FT% but not many FT attempts (like B. Wallace, who only took 3 FT attempts per game) is not as damaging as someone like Shaq, who shoots 50%, but takes 13 FTs per game.

My approach is to look at a player's marginal impact on an average team. Looking at the top 100 players, a team of 10 average players would combine to shoot about 31/41 per game, for a percentage of 76%. If I replace an average player with the player in question, I get a different team total. In this instance, replacing an average player with Shaq drops the team average to around 70%. Using Ben Wallace, the average only drops to 72.5%. By evaluating the marginal impact of each player on the team percentage, I develop a rating.

So far, so good. But here's what I think I may be missing. Centers tend to be notoriously poor FT shooters. So, in all likelihood, Shaq (or Ben Wallace) isn't replacing an average FT shooter. They are more likely replacing an average center FT shooter. And thus, when compared to players at other positions, they probably shouldn't be penalized so heavily for lousy FTs, since some of that just comes with the territory.

If all players are evaluated on the same standard, then maybe this isn't really a material problem. But I'm not so sure. And as you begin to look at the actual rosters, there are all sorts of contextual complications. For example, if I owned Shaq already, then I probably shouldn't be too worried about FT% as a category for other players, since I've probably already conceded that category. On the other hand, if I've started out with a strong FT shooting team, maybe I should be more concerned about it. Granted, I may have something to give. But it's not always wise to water down a team's strength (as long as I don't have an excessively high value).

Brain cramp!

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 12:02

30 - Shareef Abdur-Rahim (Slotnick)

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 12:09

Here are the league rules. At this juncture, there is no stated limit on games played - which doesn't necessarily mean that there won't be.

But either way, with weekly transactions (bench vs. active shifts), games played will be an important consideration, which does temper the value of injury prone players. There will be 2 additional injured reserve slots, however, so there is a useful place to warehouse someone like McDyess.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 12:21

31 - Theo Ratliff (Doolittle)

johnglad
Donor
ID: 3712010
Fri, Oct 12, 12:22

I think Odom would be a FANTASTIC pick if he falls down to you. The Clippers are on the rise and Odom just keeps getting better. Lets keep our fingers crossed!

On your next time around you are almost forced to take a center. I would STAY AWAY from Camby. I don't need a headache all year-long if I can avoid it. Ratliff or Robinson are probably your best bets. Robinson should get just as many minutes as he did last year (which is obviously was down from his prime). Anxiously awaiting the results.

Flying Polack
ID: 348311914
Fri, Oct 12, 12:35

Wallace shot 238 Free Throws and Shaq shot 972. Wallace's bad percentage won't hurt nearly as bad as Shaq's. I love Wallace, and I think he'd fit in great with your team Guru, although I probably wouldn't consider him until round 5.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 12:48

Odom is a definite if he's still available. I'm expecting that he won't be.

Donyell Marshall is an interesting option. During the second half of last year, his minutes increased, and he averaged about 1.3 blocks, 7.6 boards, and 1.6 steals per game. He also played 81 games last year, although he did have injury problems in his prior two seasons.

Kenyon Martin averaged 1.7 blocks, 7.4 rebounds, 1.1 steals. I don't see much upward trend over the course of his season (although I do recall he was on a hot streak just before his injury), but you would expect his numbers to improve a bit this year.

BTW, Jalen Rose is listed as a guard. I don't think he or Mashburn bring the proper ingredients for my squad.

tduncan
ID: 47616279
Fri, Oct 12, 12:58

guru assuming you will take odom with your next pick, I think wallace will be your top option for center. his FT% will hurt, but with ray allen shooting allmost 90%, you will be in good shape. also you could always take another guard to balance this. someone like steve nash or darrel armstrong would be perfect for your 3rd guard position.

I don't beleive it's the right time to start betting on players like martin or marshal. they would defenetly still be there for your next couple of picks.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 13:27

32 - Marcus Camby (Ludwig)

Glad he's someone else's problem.

I'm looking deeper into Ben Wallace, and he is intriguing. Here are some comparative numbers from last year:

David Robinson (per game)
14 points
1.4 assists
8.6 rebounds
1 steal
2.5 blocks

Ben Wallace:
6.4 points
1.5 assists
13 rebounds
1.3 steals
2.3 blocks

Ignoring the shooting percentages, Wallace looks pretty attractive. (Robinson shoots FTs at 75%).

Wallace also had better numbers during the second half. His point scoring is certainly weak, and that didn't improve in the 2nd half. But he sure was a rebounding machine.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 13:33

Another statistical oddity about Wallace. He was fourth in the league last year in total missed free throws (behind Shaq, Duncan, and Pierce).

He was virtually tied with McGrady and Jermaine O'Neal.

I guess that's not bad company to be in.

Shelby-villian
ID: 261146232
Fri, Oct 12, 13:36

Robinson is a gimp anyway. If you have
Robinson, Brad Miller, and a backup center,
that means you would be starting Miller and
your backup center (regardless of scheduling)
for a couple weeks because the Admiral will
have back problems for sure. I would take
Wallace for his robustness as injuries are a
killer in this league.

A really good 3rd center would be Kevin Willis
as Lafrentz will be playing PF for a couple
months. But thats getting ahead of ourselves...

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 13:40

Looking at the other "experts" draft at the fantasyref site - which uses a different scoring system, so it isn't necessarily relevant - Ben Wallace was the 34th overall pick (immed. after Odom and before Ratliff).

D. Rob was the 31st pick.

Marshall and Martin weren't chosen until the 6th round.

Hmmm...

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 15:00

33 - David Robinson (Roberts)

Only one more pick before me. He has Pierce and Walker as his first two, so he could still go in about any direction.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 15:38

If Odom disappears, and assuming Wallace becomes my center choice, then a refocus on scoring probably wouldn't hurt - at least excluding 3 point scoring.

The best outstanding players who offer some scoring punch include Stojakovich, Rose, Finley, Mashburn, Dickerson, and Terry. Stoj probably has too much of his value tied up in 3 point shooting, but the others offer some reasonable balance.

DR Stars
ID: 162592010
Fri, Oct 12, 15:50

Guru - Why Wallace over Jermaine?

tduncan
ID: 47616279
Fri, Oct 12, 15:55

because jarmane was allready picked...

rockafellerskank
Donor
ID: 4911539
Fri, Oct 12, 15:55

J.O was selected @ #29, DR Stars.

rfs

100

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 16:15

Round 3
1. Fabiano - Antawn Jamison
2. Klyce - Raef LaFrentz
3. Liss - Stephon Marbury
4. Bond - Glenn Robinson
5. Gonos - Jermaine O'Neal
6. Slotnick - Shareef Abdur-Rahim
7. Doolittle - Theo Ratliff
8. Ludwig - Marcus Camby
9. Roberts - David Robinson
10. Cummings -
11. Hall -
12. McCrae -

Round 2
1. McRae - Mourning
2. Hall - Francis
3. Cummings - Pierce
4. Roberts - Kidd
5. Ludwig - Wallace
6. Doolittle - Jordan
7. Slotnick - Stackhouse
8. Gonos - Marion
9. Bond - Payton
10. Liss - Grant Hill
11. Klyce - Karl Malone
12. Fabiano - Elton Brand

Round 1
1. Fabiano - Shaq
2. Klyce - Bryant
3. Liss - Duncan
4. Bond - Garnett
5. Gonos - Nowitzki
6. Slotnick - Webber
7. Doolittle - McGrady
8. Ludwig - Iverson
9. Roberts - Carter
10. Cummings - Walker
11. Hall - Allen
12. McCrae - Mutombo

101

E'ville
Leader
ID: 29017810
Fri, Oct 12, 16:40

Guru. Have you checked ESPN's Player Rater. They use the same 8 catagory system to rate players based on value. It's not perfect but may help.

102

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 19:05

Yes, I'm very familiar with that rater, as I've been playing in an ESPN Hoops leagues for each of the past three years. My rating model is very similar - which gives me some comfort that it's not too far off base. And at least with my model, I can change the underlying stats to comform with my projections.

Note that Shaq was rated #13 last season.

103

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 20:38

34 - Antonio Davis (Cummings)
35 - Lamar Odom (Hall)

Wonder of wonders. I didn't expect Odom to survive this long, but it appears that everyone was panicked into choosing a center.

The next guy up has two consecutive picks. But he also has 2 centers already, so I think I can safely defer picking a center for this pick.

104

The Bandwagon
ID: 46919821
Fri, Oct 12, 20:41

What a steal Guru, you're team is looking tough!

105

migdallion
ID: 4394280
Fri, Oct 12, 21:18

he who takes ben wallace will not be disappointed

though finley, casell, andre miller, and kenyon are solid picks at this stage

106

johnglad
Donor
ID: 3712010
Fri, Oct 12, 22:41

Alright you got Odom!! I say Ben Wallace or Finley with the next pick. Wallace will still be around as the other guy won't take another center. Finley though is a stat stuffer if there ever was one. Got to take a center though I would say. I'll check back in on Monday. I am travelling to Indianapolis for the weekend to see the Colts vs. Raiders game. My high school buddy (Marcus Washington) starts at LB for the Colts and he provided some friends and I with great free tix. Should be a blast!

107

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 13, 05:54

I'll be away all Saturday (visiting my oldest son at Tufts), so I won't be providing draft updates until later tonight. I don't know if the draft site will be updated during the day or not.

Someone has my instructions for the 4th round pick, which should occur this morning. After that, I doubt if I'll have another pick to make until tomorrow.

108

Guru at Tufts
ID: 429121310
Sat, Oct 13, 10:14

Just checking in from my son's dorm. McRae took Mashburn and Van Exel. I took Ben Wallace. Next guy took Stojakovich.

Off to lunch...

109

tduncan
ID: 47616279
Sat, Oct 13, 10:46

he took van exel with finley (what a drop!), cassel and andre miller still loose? strange pick. IMO even players like jason terry, nash or darrel armstrong will do better then nick.

110

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 13, 21:39

Here are the picks in Round 4 (one left):
1. McRae - Van Exel
2. Hall - Ben Wallace
3. Cummings - Predrag Stojakovic
4. Roberts - Michael Finley
5. Ludwig - Jalen Rose
6. Doolittle - Andre Miller
7. Slotnick - Brian Grant
8. Gonos - Stockton
9. Bond - Nash
10. Liss - Baron Davis
11. Klyce - Eddie Jones
12. Fabiano -

111

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 14, 12:16

Round 4
12. Terrell Brandon (Fabiano)

Round 5
1. Sam Cassell (Fabiano)
2. Mike Bibby (Klyce)

112

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 14, 12:38

Round 5
3. Wally Szczerbiak (Liss)

113

chuckball
ID: 507352011
Sun, Oct 14, 13:59

I thought Bibby and Baron Davis dropped a lot in your draft. Do you not expect them to improve upon last years numbers?

I was projecting about 15pt/4rb/9as/1.5 3pter and 1.5 steals out of Bibby and 15pt/5rb/8as/1 3pter and 2 steals out of Baron. Is that too much to ask out of these two?

Any thought on these two guys and how they'll progress this year.

114

prefek
ID: 599251413
Sun, Oct 14, 14:25

Best available players:

PG: Darrell Armstrong, Larry Hughes, Damon Stoudamire, Tim Hardaway, Mookie Blaylock

SG: Reggie Miller, Jason Terry, Cuttino Mobley, Doug Christie, Allan Houston, Latrell Spreewell, Rashard Lewis, Anfernee Hardaway

SF: Anthony Mason, Donyell Marshall, Scottie Pippen, Toni Kukoc

PF: Antonio McDyess (injured), Danny Fortson, Juwon Howard, Keith Van Horn, Kenyon Martin

C: Vlade Divac, Elden Campbell, Marc Jackson, Shawn Bradley, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Lorenzen Wright

(All IMHO)

115

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 14, 15:21

Round 5
4. Rashard Lewis (Bond)

116

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 14, 15:49

Round 5
5. Reggie Miller (Gonos)

117

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 14, 16:44

Round 5
6. Keith Van Horn (Slotnick)

118

TaRhEElKiD
ID: 6917619
Sun, Oct 14, 17:51

What about Fortson? I'm not sure, but has he been taken? If not...he may be a steal!

119

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 14, 18:08

Fortson has not been taken.

120

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 14, 19:10

Round 5
7. Jason Terry (Doolittle)

I'm up in four more picks.

121

TaRhEElKiD
ID: 6917619
Sun, Oct 14, 20:35

Grab Fortson...if you need a F, I am not really sure about what your team looks like right now.

122

Belroy
ID: 229301314
Sun, Oct 14, 20:47

Chuckball, in response to you thoughts on B. Davis. 15 pts is a bit generous, and don't forget the shameful FG%, but I think your other predictions are quite on. In addition Bibby has too many shooters around him he could potentially lead the league in assists but will only score around 11 ppg.
Guru the obvious choice is K-Mart if he is there, this is his year. If he can escape the injury bug. Do not forget about L Wright if you are looking for boards.. could be top 10 this year.

123

tduncan
ID: 47616279
Sun, Oct 14, 21:12

I think darrel armstrong will be good for you with one of the picks. to balance the wallace FT situation a little bit, and he is a very solid guard any way. with the other pick maybe cuttino mobley will be good for points, 3pts and %s. I wouldn't go with baron davis. he is too unpredictable.

124

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 15, 08:31

Round 5
8. Darrell Armstrong (Ludwig)

125

CanEHdian Pride
ID: 426351415
Mon, Oct 15, 08:42

I think I'd jump on Anthony Mason if given the opportunity. He is going to have a lot of weapons around him in a high powered offense. He'll fill all the categories. I had him last year in a FP scoring league and he was one of my most consistant contributors.

Not sure about his FT% but all other categories consider he is a stud. Just ask Lou....

126

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 15, 11:13

We don't even know where Mason will be playing this year, do we?

127

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 15, 11:14

Round 5
9. Danny Forston (Roberts)

128

DR Stars
ID: 162592010
Mon, Oct 15, 11:33

I think Divac is a good pick for this year, specially if CWeb losses significant minutes/games due to injury.

129

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 15, 11:48

Round 5
10. Juwon Howard (Cummings)

130

CanEHdian Pride
ID: 426351415
Mon, Oct 15, 12:13

What about Dirk Nowitzki? He is a good rebounder, solid perimeter shooter and good from the line (i think). With a strong supporting cast he could put up an even bigger year then last. Too early? If Mason is too unsure I'd pick Dirk!

131

Tortfeasor
Donor
ID: 469202110
Mon, Oct 15, 12:17

EH-

Nowitzki already went at 5 spot. Pretty ridiculously high, I'd say.

132

coldwater coyotes
Leader
ID: 5965479
Mon, Oct 15, 12:23

My vote for your next pick is: Kenyon Martin

133

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 15, 12:35

Round 5
11. Kenyon Martin (Hall)

I made this pick before I saw your post, CC. Honest!)

Martin solidifies my blocks and boards, and also contributes a fair number of steals for a big man. He has reportedly fully healed from his broken leg (even played in the Goodwill games in late summer), and certainly has a lot of upside.

134

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 15, 12:41

Recap of my roster through 5 rounds:
Ray Allen, Steve Francis, Lamar Odom, Ben Wallace, Kenyon Martin

At this point, I'm looking pretty strong in rebounds, blocks, steals, and 3 pointers. I'm rather average in assists and FG%, and weak in points and FT%. In a league like this, it is unreasonable to expect to be strong in all categories, and I've had pretty good success in prior leagues (using this format) with a pronounced weakness in scoring. It seems like an emphasis on scoring always concedes too much in the other stats, and vice versa. Which is not to say I wouldn't like to improve my scoring. But the tradeoffs need to be attractive, and the best available scorers still don't look like the best available players.

135

DR Stars
ID: 162592010
Mon, Oct 15, 13:29

Guru - Do you think Divac was overvalued at this point? why is Martin a better option?

136

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 15, 13:41

They are statistically pretty close. In fact, using last year's stats, Divac might get a slight nod.

However, Vlade is 33, and Kenyon is 23. Vlade's numbers are unlikely to improve over last year's, unless Webber is really out for an extended period (which is always a possibility for him). Martin's seem likely to improve.

The best thing Vlade has going for him is that he fills a center spot. But I decided I'd rather own the young guy on the rise than the old guy on the decline.

137

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 15, 13:43

Round 5
12. Larry Hughes (McRae)

Round 6
1. PJ Brown (McRae)

I'm going to start a new thread, as this is getting a bit lengthy. I'll open the new one with a recap of the draft so far.

138

Polish Pride
ID: 53911418
Mon, Oct 15, 13:47

Nice team so far guru.

Although I feel like you should go big again, my vote for your next pick is a toss up between David Wesley and Cuttino Mobley.

139

Belroy
ID: 229301314
Tue, Oct 16, 10:12

Guru, give us the link to the new thread. Nice pick by the way. Don't forget the ast. you get from odom and it could go up with Brand on the team. Hey canadian pride is Shaq taken yet?

140

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 16, 12:05

Thread continuation

141

CanEHdian Pride
ID: 426351415
Tue, Oct 16, 12:18

Yes belroy, Shaq was taken with the first pick of the first round.

142

chris
ID: 149552212
Mon, Oct 22, 12:55

Let me be blunt...i hav challenged the cbs guys in many sports and the word idiot is a compliment. Good luck to all except them

Forum: hoopPage 5544Subject: Dirty Dozen Experts Roto League

Forum: hoop
Page 5544
Subject: Dirty Dozen Experts Roto League