Self Editor

Forum: hoop
Page 8082
Subject: PROFL Experts League - (part 2)

Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Fri, Oct 25, 2002, 17:40

Time to start a second thread on this. See this thread for the background, rules, and commentary on the first 3 rounds.

I'll recap the opening rounds in a moment, but let me start by listing the next 5 picks:

3.11 Rashard Lewis (no supporting comments yet)

3.12 Brent Barry - G: Anyone following roto last year knows what a stud Barry became. Arguably a top 5 player overall. A stud in FT%, FG%, steals and 3's and still a huge plus in assists, boards and scoring with no negative catagories. But the risks are there this season. He's not considered an all-star caliber player and he's not young enough to be expected to develop into one. He also has D.Mason breathing down his neck for minutes. But it's not like he's going to turn into a part time player and his 3's and shooting percentages should remain high even if he falls off a bit in everything else.

4.01 D.Mutombo - C: I'm still reeling from the run of PG's over the last 12 picks. I was banking on either Stockton/Cassell or even Marbury at this pick but the run has forced me to change strategies instead of reaching. Looking at my team I still need rebounds and blocks and Deke is a top 10 player in both. He also shoots well enough for a big man to keep me at or near the top of the league in the FT% and FG% catagories (so fart). We'll need some assists eventuallyt but Deke will fill a couple of voids for now.

4.02 Michael Finley (no comments yet)

4.03 Glenn Robinson, F: I expect Robinson to put up numbers similar to the ones he offered Fantasy owners last season. He is joining an Atlanta team that is loaded with offensive weapons, but Milwaukee also had a lot of options. Despite the perception that all Robinson is strictly a shooter I see him helping out in the other major categories as well.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 25, 2002, 17:44

Recap of the first three rounds:
1.01 Hall - Duncan - F - SAN
1.02 Ludwig - Garnett - F - MIN
1.03 Slotnick - Nowitzki - C - DAL
1.04 Slight - Pierce - G - BOS
1.05 Chizzik - Bryant - G - LAL
1.06 Fitzpatrick - McGrady - G - ORL
1.07 Georgoplous - O'Neal - C - LAL
1.08 McLaughlin - Payton - G - SEA
1.09 Gentles - Kidd - G - NJ
1.10 McRae - Francis - G - HOU
1.11 Langendorf - Miller - G - LAC
1.12 Connors - Marion - F - PHO

2.01 Connors - Allen - G -MIL
2.02 Langendorf - Walker - F - BOS
2.03 McRae - Webber- F- SAC
2.04 Gentles - Brand - F - LAC
2.05 McLaughlin - Abdur-Rahim - F - ATL
2.06 Georgoplous - Carter - G - TOR
2.07 Fitzpatrick - Iverson - G - PHI
2.08 Chizzik - S, Nash - G - DAL
2.09 Slight - R. Wallace - F - POR
2.10 Slotnick - J. O'Neal - F - IND
2.11 Ludwig - B. Davis - G - CHA
2.12 Hall - P. Stojakovic - F - SAC

3.01 Hall - J. Terry - G - NOR
3.02 Ludwig - J. Rose - F - CHI
3.03 Slotnick - P. Gasol - F - Mem.
3.04 Slight - K. Malone - Utah
3.05 Chizzik - B. Wallace - Det.
3.06 Fitzpatrick - S. Cassell - G - MIL
3.07 Georgoplous - J. Stockton - G - UTA
3.08 McLaughlin - A. Jamison - F - GS
3.09 Gentles - E. Jones - G/F - MIA
3.10 McRae - S. Marbury- G - PHO
3.11 Langendorf - Rashard Lewis, F, SEA
3.12 Connors - Brent Barry - G - SEA

4.01 Connors - Dikembe Mutombo - C - NJ
4.02 Langendorf - Michael Finley - G - DAL
4.03 McRae - Glenn Robinson - F - ATL

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 08:30

4.04 - Grant Hill, F (no comments yet)

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 14:33

4.05 skipped

4.06 - Raef LaFrenz, C - DAL

Big men are at a premium this year, so big Raef is our man with this pick. We were hoping that Mutombo would slide to this pick, but we're happy to settle for LaFrenz, whose good FT% complements our other center, Shaq, very nicely. Oh, being the NBA's #2 shot-blocker last season doesn't hurt, either.

4.07 - Darius Miles, F (no comments yet)

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 14:57

There are still 5 picks before my next 2, but it's time start thinking ahead.

I think I need a true point guard (since Terry's ultimate role is still somewhat unknown) and a big man to supplement Duncan.

Best point gaurds currently available are Jason Williams (Mem), Gilbert Arenas (although RotoWire certainly doesn't think much of him), Darrell Armstrong, Jay Williams (the rookie), and Chauncey Billups.

Best forwards include Kirilenko, Mashburn, Kurt Thomas, KMart, & perhaps Caron Butler, who is still untested.

Best centers include Yao Ming (gulp!), Kurt Thomas (eligible at both F & C, hmmm...), Brad Miller, Ilgauskas, & RotoWire is also very high on Eddy Curry.

Best shooting guards available are Mobley, Wells, Stackhouse, and Szczerbiak. RotoWire really ranks Wally highly, but if he moves out to guard, I wonder is 51% FG shooting is realistic.

Any thoughts/suggestions?

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 14:59

Grant Hill commentary: The first real reach of the draft. I'm not too worried about Hill's production when he's on the court. Sure his all-star days are probably behind him but he's still one of the better all-rounders in the NBA. However I am concerned about Hill's ankle and his ability (or lack thereof) to survive an entire season. Hill has played in a total of 18 games the last two years and while the Magic say he's finally 100%, I'm still a little concerned. If he avoids the injury bug and plays in a minumum of 70 games, the gamble will have paid off......but thats a very big "if."

4.08 Cuttino Mobley - G - Hou (no comments yet)

Mike D
Donor
ID: 26910250
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 15:03

My favorites are Billups and Kirilenko because they fill up several stats and don't really hurt you. I expect increased assists from Billups although he did well in relief of Brandon last year. Kirilenko should finally have the playing time as well.

At C, Ilgauskas looks tremendous, though he carries the injury baggage. I picked him late in 3 leagues and believe he'll be top 5. I wouldn't pick him yet or any of the other centers. Very impressed with Ming, who is highly skilled.

Note-----I left Mobley off since he was just picked.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 15:11

4.05 (previously skipped) J. Stackhouse, G

KnicksFan
Donor
ID: 439341814
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 15:13

Would you consider Eddie Griffen this early in the draft? A combo of Griffen and Duncan would just about guarantee you the blocks category, although I don't know what else he will really excel at this season.

Mike D
Donor
ID: 26910250
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 15:18

I wouldn't. Too many others that are better across the board, IMHO.

biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 3502218
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 15:32

I'd be a little wary of Jay Williams, given the wierdness going on in Chicago with he and Jamal Crawford. Also, he's a rookie, which by definition is a wild-card, and 4th round is too early to start taking chances with your draft.

Jason Williams, as long as he can keep his head on straight, or at least not too crooked, can really put up some mucho numbers across the board. I would probably go him or perhaps Kurt Thomas, who may be forced to score underneath more with NY in such bad shape.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 15:32

Seems a bit early for Griffin.

Just looked at the average picks for ESPN Leagues. The highest unpicked players from that list are Szczerbiak(37), Antonio Davis(39-but he's a center there), K. Martin(46), Mashburn(47), Kurt Thomas(49), Billups(52).

Others mentioned above: Jay Williams(56), Ratliff(58), Kirilenko(62), Brad Miller(64), Yao Ming(65), Jason Williams(81), Eddie Griffin(85), Caron Butler(88), Arenas(99)Eddy Curry(106).

I have Jason Williams as the top-ranked available point guard right now. Ditto with the RotoWire rankings. He ended last year ranked #46 on the ESPN rater (using per-game averages). Any idea why he is getting picked #81?

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 15:34

Langendorf's analysis for his first four picks:

1.11 Andre Miller: I love the big, do-everything forwards, but all the KGs and Nowitzkis are history by the 11th pick. So, what to do? In this case, I'll grab Miller and by tickled to death by it. His scoring might drop off a tad in L.A., but it still will be an asset -- and it's hardly the best thing about his fantasy value. He could lead the league in assists this season, he's a great rebounder for his position, and his steals and field-goal percentage could rank among the best for guards.

2.02 Antoine Walker: Walker scares me a little, but only because I'd been expecting him to break through -- and had always been disappointed -- for years before he finally hit paydirt last season. Now I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop. On paper, though, this looks like a great pick. Walker is a three-point and assist machine -- premium talents at forward -- and is a top scorer-rebounder. Best of all, his turnovers and three-point percentage won't kill you in our eight-category format as it would in some other leagues.

3.11 Rashard Lewis: Yeah, I took a bit of a chance here, but Lewis' shoulder injury scare appears to have been just that. He looked good in the preseason, and considering his numbers last year, his upside and his relative durability up to this point, he was by far the best player left on the board. I don't mind one bit getting a forward who scores, rebounds, hits threes and racks up steals with my third-round pick. If he takes another step forward this season, he could turn out to be the kind of pick that wins this league.

4.02 Michael Finley: There are some questions that accompany this pick -- Can Finley stay healthy after missing 13 games last season? Will all that talent in Dallas stifle his ability to put up numbers? -- but I feel pretty confident in a guy who has played 82 games in five of his seven years in the league and who has averaged at least 20.2 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.3 assists in each of the last five. Finley is as steady as they come, and the only area in which he doesn't provide at least average production -- regardless of position -- is blocks. I'll take that action.

biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 3502218
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 15:37

Jason Williams - could be his crummy FG%, or could it be that some leagues are using turnovers?

Other than that, probably risk-aversion. He's viewed as a nutjob.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 15:43

ESPN leagues don't use turnovers. I think they all use they same 8 categories we're using here.

Probably the latter.

Mike D
Donor
ID: 26910250
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 15:44

Possibly because he has Brevin Knight backing him up. If JWill isn't shooting well, and is getting a lot of TOs, his starting job could be jeopardized. Knight is a very quality backup. I realize no TOs in ESPNs or your scoring system.

Aris
ID: 56710623
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 16:12

I would be afraid to take Jason Williams just because you never know...
From the others I'd take Billups, but I don't expect his numbers to increase much from the second half of last year when TB was out. He also has competition from Atkins who saw lots of time in the preseason.
I have Areans ranked equally high as Billups based on the games he started last year and in the preseason. He really fills up the stat sheet.
Armstrong will supossedly be benched this year, but they said the same thing last year too.

I wouldn't take any rookies this year. I don't think Ming is ready and the really good ones (Jay, Gooden, Wagner) have various uncertainties with role/injuries. Butler maybe, but later.

From the forwards I'd take Kirilenko over Mashburn, due to durability.

I'd take Brad Miller among avaialble C's. His percentages are good and he doesn't hurt you anywhere. He will be a good complement to Duncan. Illgauskas scares me and Eddy Curry is too raw. Kurt Thomas would be my sedond choice.

Since Mobley is gone and Stack's role is uncertain (especially if MJ wants to start), Wally is a good choice and he hit 51% last year playing mostly SG (at least in the games I saw). He's still injured though. Wells is a guard with forwards numbers (FG%, FT%, no 3s).

Which position I'd pick first is a totally different question...

skinneej
Sustainer
ID: 29932521
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 18:13

Of those players remaining I consider Szczerbiak, Mashburn, K. Thomas, and Kirilenko the best overall choices. With Terry and Stojakovic already on your team, you are well on your way in 3's. I don't see a sure bet in any of the pgs with this pick. Armstrong is probably the better of the ones listed even though he's coming off the bench.

Mashburn would give you decent assist totals from the forward position, and he only hurts you in 2 categories. Szczerbiak is a good shooting guard and doesn't hurt you except in blks which you don't really expect from them anyway. He doesn't really help you that much in any category either. Kirlilenko is nice in the steals and blks category and is about average in most other categories. Kurt Thomas shoots well from the line for a big guy and the center eligibility really makes him valuable. He should score more this season may be a good guy to pair with Duncan. Good Luck with your decisions.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 20:01

4.09 skipped
4.10 J. Mashburn
4.11 W. Szczerbiak

I'm on the clock.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 20:08

I took Kirilenko with pick 4.12, but I'm still thinking about the next pick.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 20:42

4.09 took Yao Ming. Here's the complete fourth round:

4.01 Connors -- Mutombo, C, NJ
4.02 Langendorf -- Michael Finley, G, DAL
4.03 McRae -- Glenn Robinson, F, ATL
4.04 Gentles -- G. Hill, ORL
4.05 McLaughlin -- Stackhouse - G WAS
4.06 Georgopoulos -- R. LaFrentz - C - DAL
4.07 Fitzpatrick -- D. Miles - F - Cle
4.08 Chizzik -- C Mobley - G - Hou
4.09 Slight - Y. Ming - C HOU
4.10 Slotnick -- J. Mashburn - G/F - NOR
4.11 Ludwig - W. Szczerbiak - G - Min
4.12 Hall - A. Kirilenko - F - Utah

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 21:37

Well, I went back and forth on my choice of a point guard, and finally settled on...

5.01 Kurt Thomas - C, NY

We each need to start two centers, and with 12 teams in the league, that means at least 24 centers must be drafted. With just 29 NBA teams to pick from, and with a fairly restrictive center eligibility requirement, that's going to require a pretty deep reach. Only 5 centers have been selected so far. Kurt Thomas may not be a natural center, but he's eligible for that slot, and his numbers justify a pick at this time, even if he wasn't center-eligible.

Last year - particularly in the second half - Thomas stepped up his production. After the All-Star break, he averaged 17 points, 10.4 boards, and more than a steal and a block per game. With McDyess out, he should continue to get big minutes, and plenty of opportunities to contribute. And the bonus is that he can shoot free throws - better than 81% in each of the last two seasons.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 21:52

A little more comment, not in the official record -

I was not only weak in assists, but also in rebounds, and it looks like there are still more quality opportunities to pick up assists than there are boards - without having to turn to one-dimensional players. Maybe that will not be true after 22 more picks, but I decided to gamble that a reasonable PG opportunity will still be there for pick #72, while centers might start getting snatched up. I then drafted my comment to try to persuade some of the others to look seriously at centers. We'll see if they follow my lead.

For the whole 2002-03 season, Kurt Thomas was worthy of a pick at this point of the draft. And his second half numbers were much stronger than his first half, ably filling the void when Marcus Camby disappeared. With McDyess creating the same predicament, Thomas should certainly get the minutes. The Knicks may be a sorry team this year, but Thomas should be able to rack up his stats. And the more I thought about it, the more I realized that centers are going to be a real predicament in this league. Just think - we need to start 24 centers. Consider also that guys like Duncan, Ben Wallace, Jermaine O'Neal, Antonio Davis, Rasheed Wallace - none of them are center eligible. Who knows what the last center picked is going to look like!

It'll be interesting to see how the next round trip goes.

biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 3502218
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 22:01

I like your Thomas pick, Guru. I think he will be one of the lone bright spots on an otherwise miserable franchise...at least I hope so!

Nice job trying to jump-start a run on big men! Maybe Jason Williams will still be a pariah when it comes back to you.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 22:08

My comment on Kirilenko: Last year, Kirilenko surprised a lot of people, posting stats that made him worthy of a 4th-6th round pick. With a year of experience, and less competition for playing time (Karl Malone is a year older, and Donyell Marshall is gone), Kirilenko should see an increase in minutes, and at least a commensurate increase in production. His strongest categories are blocks and steals, but he should also produce ample rebounds and won't hurt in the scoring categories, either. It's not even inconceivable that he'll develop into a top 25 fantasy producer this year. Plenty of upside potential. And the sophomore jinx doesn't apply to basketball, does it?

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 22:10

5.02 Kenyon Martin, F - Nets

Comment: I really like Kenyon Martin for the upcoming season. Last year, Martin averaged 15 points, nearly 100 steals and blocks, and shot 46% from the field. With Keith Van Horn gone, Martin will be able to slide over to his natural 4 spot and take advantage of the increased shot opportunities. Unfortunately, at this point the refs give Martin a tech for breathing oxygen, so he may double tech out of a few games. Twenty points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 100 steals and 130 blocks are not out of Kenyon's reach for the upcoming season, as long as he can keep his head on straight.

Mike D
Donor
ID: 26910250
Sat, Oct 26, 2002, 22:12

I like the picks too. Thomas is a safe, solid pick. I agree that he will provide a nice boost in rebounds, and he can score. I would have risked it with a PG, likey Billups at this pick. But, very understandable to make the picks you did.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 27, 2002, 15:26

5.03 Jason Richardson, G

5.04 Bonzi Wells, F/G: Bonzi signed a new contract and will continue to start. He gets decent points, rebounds, threes, steals, and fg%. His ft% isn’t great, but he doesn’t get to the line too often. Also, he qualifies at guard and forward giving me some roster flexibility.

5.05 - Brad Miller - C: After being traded to the Pacers last year, Miller averaged 15 points, 8 rebounds, and had very impressive percentages from the line and the field. I'd like more than half a block per game out of my center, but the rest of his numbers should make up for that. We felt that Miller was the best choice here, considering the lack of depth at the center position.

5.06 Vlade Divac C

5.07 Keith Van Horn, F: While Van Horn may not be a stud, he will provide the squad with FT%, scoring and rebounds. If he can get a steal a game, it'll be a bonus...

5.08 Allan Houston, G

5.09 Jamaal Tinsley, G

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 27, 2002, 15:29

Backtracking woth comments:
4.07 Darius Miles: With Miles now playing for the Cavs, he's going to get major minutes and major touches. He should be able to put up about 17 ppg and 7 rpg and maybe even more. This should be a breakout season for Miles. He also does a good job getting steals and blocks.

4.08 Cuttino Mobley: His numbers over the second half of last year speak for themslves. 24 points, 1.6 steals, 1.9 three pointers, 45% from the field and 87% from the line. These numbers fit well with our current roster which was weak in points, 3's, and FT% because of our Ben Wallace pick. We were hoping for Mobley to fall to us here, and we're glad he did.

Baldwin
ID: 4261155
Sun, Oct 27, 2002, 16:18

I am feelin' fairly good about my Political Board Yahoo League as my first 6 picks have already been drafted as of 5.5 in this expert league.

I got the second pick so I faced the same available players as Dave Hall. I also share Peja and Duncan with Dave Hall's team.

FWIW my next pick at 7.2 was Richard Hamilton. I expect him to be the main scoring option on his new team, get more minutes and maybe to even learn to play more disciplined defense and contribute more in the secondary stats.

[Duncan, Malone, Stojakovic, Jamison, Mobley, Brad Miller]

Aris
ID: 56710623
Sun, Oct 27, 2002, 18:16

IMHO Houston and Tinsley were drafted too high. They are too one-dimensional (maybe two-dimensional).

I'd say the same for Divac, but centers are at a premium in this league I guess.

Comeback Kid
ID: 249431410
Sun, Oct 27, 2002, 18:33

actually, I'm suprised Houston lasted this long, scoring and sharshooting can be hard to come by.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 27, 2002, 18:58

I'm feeling even better about my pick of Kurt Thomas. The Divac pick illustrates how tough the center position is going to be. I don't even have Divac ranked in the top 100 - but there aren't any obviously better choices at the position (Ratliff, Campbell, Ilgauskas...).

Houston just doesn't bring enough statistical variety for me to like him - especially at this round.

Tinsley? Who knows? I'd picks other point guards ahead of him, but he could turn out to be a good call.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 27, 2002, 21:38

5.10 skipped

5.11 Antonio Davis, F

5.12 Jason Williams, G

6.01 Theo Ratliff, C

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 27, 2002, 21:56

6.02 Cliff Robinson, C

Species
Sustainer
ID: 7724916
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 01:09

Good call in deke-ing the competition about centers, Guru. I think Divac is going to surprise a lot of owners this year with FEWER stats. I think Keon Clark was brought in to give Divac more rest during the regular season so he is fresher for the playoffs.......and for another 6 fouls on Shaq, of course.

Aris
ID: 399161218
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 02:16

Cliff has been playing off the bench throughout the preseason. It might stay like that for the regular season as well.

Antonio Davis as F only was picked too high. Even without Hakeem and Clark, I think his best days are behind him. I would have taken any of the three centers you mentioned (Rattlif, Campbell, Ilgauskas).

Any thoughts on Shane Battier? He's very good all around but not great in anything, but his role is unclear with Gooden and the return of Dickerson.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 07:31

The guy who took A. Davis thought he was center-eligible when he picked him. When advised that he was only a forward, he decided to keep the pick on the assumption that he will be eligible for center after 10 starts there. But I'll bet he wouldn't have picked him at first fif he was aware of the issue.

I don't know what to think of Battier. It's getting crowded in Memphis, which might be good for the Grizzlies, but not as good for fantasy rosters.

Mike D
Donor
ID: 4372378
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 08:20

Agree on Memphis. I like Gasol and probably Gooden, possibly J Will and possibly Swift. Battier maybe next. Saw Battier play the other night against Orlando and he looked stiff. Missed a wide open three. Anybody's guess at this point, but I had moved him down.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 08:47

5.10 David Robinson (continuing the panic for centers)

A few more submitted comments on recent picks:

5.12 - Jason Williams - G - MEM - This pick was a necessity after I missed out on all the top PG's in the first 3 rounds. After being an overrated NBA player for his first 3 years, JDub has actually become an underrated roto player. His poor FG% hurts a bit but he's a huge plus in assists, 3's and steals. And along with my next pick, I'm collecting enough solid FG% shooters to offset his negative.

6.01 - Theo Ratliff - C - ATL - I wouldn't have made this pick 3 weeks ago. Typically I try to draft healthy players so this is big risk for me. He's basically missed 1 1/2 years but played the entire exhibition season and looked healthy and played great according to reports. When we last saw Theo he was the league leader in blocks with almost 4 a game, was a terrific shooting big man with 50% from the field and over 75% from the line, and helped out on the boards. Plus he fills the quickly thinning Center position. If we can somehow get 70 games out of Theo then this pick will prove to be a steal. But it could backfire.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 08:50

Recap of round 5:

5.01 Hall - Kurt Thomas - C - NYK
5.02 Ludwig - K. Martin - F - NETS
5.03 Slotnick - J. Richardson - G - GSW
5.04 Slight - B. Wells - F/G - POR
5.05 Chizzik - B. Miller - C - Ind
5.06 Fitzpatrick - V. Divac - C - SAC
5.07 Georgoplous - K. Van Horn - f - PHI
5.08 McLaughlin - A. Houston - G - NYK
5.09 Gentles - J. Tinsley - G - IND
5.10 McRae - D. Robinson, - C - SA
5.11 Langendorf - Antonio Davis, F, TOR
5.12 Connors - Jason Williams, G - MEM

6.01 Connors - Theo Ratliff, C - ATL
6.02 Langendorf - Cliff Robinson, C - DET

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 08:51

6.03 Zydrunas Illgauskas, C, CLE- Ilgauskas has the potential to be like Bill Walton, good and bad. A healthy center that dominates games on offense or defense, or an injury prone big man with bad feet. He has looked good so far during the preseason so I'll take my chances with him and keep my fingers crossed.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 11:02

6.04 Elden Campbell, C

The run on centers continues!

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 11:12

6.05 Kerry Kittles, G

The run on centers takes a breather.

Mike D
Donor
ID: 4372378
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 11:54

Lol Guru! The commentary is excellent as always!

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 12:33

6.06 - Michael Jordan, F: OK, so he's not the greatest player in the world anymore... but he's still a great roto player. Eligible to start at SF this year, Jordan will contribute steals, points, FT% and -- perhaps most importantly for this team-- assists out of the forward position. His coming off the bench and his stated intention of only playing 30-32 minutes a night will serve to keep him fresh and healthy for the entire 82 game season.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 12:42

6.07 F Donyell Marshall

Ref
ID: 28045169
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 12:45

I don't rememebr how long Elden was going to be out, but seemed to me that it was several weeks. Albeit, Elden can contribute when he's in there and healthy.

Farn
Donor
ID: 7822711
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 13:08

looks like Guru's ploy to convince people to grab centers has paid off. He even got somebody to take Elden Campbell nice and early.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 15:19

[end of breather]

6.08 - Eddy Curry - C: As a starter last year, Curry averaged 11 points, 6 rebounds, 1 block and shot 55% from the field. A year older, Curry should see plenty more minutes and opportunities this year. He has a ton of upside (and center eligibility) so we are glad to land him at the end of the 6th round. It's possible we could have gotten him later in the draft, but we didn't want to risk it.

Farn
Donor
ID: 7822711
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 15:22

Guru- how long before Bateer, Outlaw, or Foster go? :)

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 15:46

14 centers have now been taken, although that includes Shaq and Cambell, who will be sitting at the outset. (Maybe not, by the time this draft is finished, however.)

I'm trying to figure out who the other 10-12 centers would most likely be. Here's a list of those who are eligible (in no particular order):
Rebraca
Olowokandi
Sabonis
Dale Davis
S. Swift
Macculloch
Hilario
Nesterovic/Woods/Jackson
Bradley
Kwame Brown
Battie
Tsakalidis
Dampier
K. Clark

There are some others, probably some whose eligibility is not intuitive (liek Swift), and probably some who belong ahead of those on this list. But it gets pretty scary, doesn't it?

The question is when to nail down the second center slot?

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 15:49

6.09 – Gilbert Arenas, G: Arenas was a valuable pick-up late last year. He’ll get more minutes and be more experienced this year, and should be a top 10 player in steals and assists. He won’t score a ton of points (maybe 11/g) and doesn’t get many threes (less than 1/g), but he shoots decent field goal and free throw percentages.

Farn
Donor
ID: 7822711
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 15:54

Arenas scares me. He took 20 shots the other night and turned it over 10 times. Can a team win like that? Not likely. Which means Sura might get that job by December.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 15:56

Ken Slight (MonsterBasketball) is assembling a very nice team. (Or at least, we seem to value players similarly)

Paul Pierce
Rasheed Wllace
Karl Malone
Yao Ming
Bonzi Wells
Gilbert Arenas

Not world beaters, but the squad fits together nicely.

Another suqad that I like is Ted Connors (FantasyRef):
Shawn Marion
Ray Allen
Brent Barry
Dikembe Mutombo
Jason Williams
Theo Ratliff

I keep track of projected team stats as we go along, and those two teams have consistenly looked more competitive than the others.

Of course, we're only halfway through the starters, and my projections could be totally bogus.

Comeback Kid
ID: 23946239
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 16:04

yeah I like Connors' team a lot. could be real scary if Ratliff is healthy.

I'd throw Magloire on that list of centers. But I say take a pass on all those guys for now . . .

Mike D
Donor
ID: 4372378
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 16:04

Not a huge difference between those centers that are left. I wouldn't mind having Dale Davis soon, but then again, others like Kandy man and Clark are also similar. Then there's the "up and comers" like Brown, Rebraca, and Swift. I'd stay true to your board, and if one is in range, take him. Otherwise, wait.

Mike D
Donor
ID: 4372378
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 16:05

Reminds me of drafting a catcher in baseball.

biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 3502218
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 16:26

Except that just about all catchers are worthless - similar to TE in football. ;)

If you don't get Piazza or Tony Gonzalez, it almost isn't worth drafting one. The 5th catcher/TE likely is only marginally better than waiver fodder. I don't think that is so true for centers, is it?

biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 3502218
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 16:28

...meaning catchers/TE don't have unique contributions, whereas you have to get blocks and boards, FG% from somewhere. Center is associated with at least 2 categories. You can't safely ignore it.

Mike D
Donor
ID: 4372378
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 16:28

In this league, almost. In Yahoo, no, as a lot of other players are center eligible.

Mike D
Donor
ID: 4372378
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 16:29

You can cover them with Forwards in many cases.

FootWedge
ID: 31782819
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 16:43

Guru... I probably just missed him but I didn't see Ilgauskus as taken or on the center list. We know he won't last long but if he did he would be in the top 5 or 6 at center.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 18:28

Ilgauskas went 6.03

Here are the next two picks:

6.10 Olowokandi - C

6.11 D. Gooden - F

I'm up!

I'm pretty sure I'll take Billups with one. The other? Christie or Caron Butler are at the top of my list. Lemme think about this...

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 20:10

6.10 - Michael Olowokandi, C: After the latest run on centers, we felt this was a great spot to grab the Kandi man. He is in a contract year and has showed improvement in each of the last couple seasons. After the All-Star break, Olowokandi posted 15.5 PPG and 9.5 RPG last season, and seemed to finally show the potential the Clippers saw in him. He'll make a nice #2 center on our team.

6.11 Drew Gooden, F: In order to win a fantasy league, you have to take chances. In every league, there is usually one team stacked from top to bottom. As a fantasy owner, your goal is to be able to compete with that team. Grabbing a player who has established himself as a definite 12 points, 5 rebounds a game year in and year out is usually unproductive. In Gooden, I see the best potential for a breakout first year. Gooden played three years of college ball, making him a veritable veteran by today's NBA draft standards, so he should have less of the normal rookie culture shock. Moreover, this preseason, Gooden averaged over 18 points and 11 rebounds. Normally I pay little attention to preseason stats, but these numbers are comparable to his final year
at Kansas, where he averaged 19.8 points, 11.4 rebounds, shot 50 percent from the floor and 75 percent from the line. Although Gooden faces competition for playing time on the Grizzlies, I expect Gooden to walk away with the rookie of the year award.

6.12 Chauncey Billups - G: I actually considered Billups for my previous pick, but decided to grab a center instead. So this is like having my cake and eating it, too. In Detroit, Billups will finally get the chance to be the starting PG (although you could argue that backing up Brandon might have provided comparable job security). Someone will have to pass the ball to Rip Hamilton, and Billups will be the one. After the All-Star break last year, Chauncey averaged 14.4 points, 6.8 assists, 1.5 threes, and 88% from the FT line. If he can produce at that level, he’s a bargain.

7.01 Doug Christie – G: Unless you're Rick Fox, Christie doesn't attract much notice. But he spreads his stats around, and was a solid top-50 fantasy producer last season, with 4.2 assists, 4.6 rebounds, 2 steals, 12 points, a three, and above average shooting percentages. That combination of stats warrants a 3rd or 4th round pick. As the first pick in the 7th round, this is like paying about 60 cents for a dollar.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 20:18

More off-the-record comments:

I was all set to take Caron Butler. In fact, I even drafted the supporting comments. But in doing so, I just couldn't convince myelf that Butler would be able to match Christie's numbers for a whole season. He might be there by the end of the year, but he's bound to have some of those rookie nights.

Christie isn't as fun to own as Butler would have been. But I think he's a smarter pick - the kind of undervalued picks that quantitative guru's are supposed to take. I knew he wouldn't slide much deeper. Meanwhile, Butler might still be there for my next pick... and if not, no big deal.

This is why I prefer to write my analysis before actually submitting my pick. It lets me try to convince myself objectively, rather than emotionally. And if I can't convince myself, then it's probably not the optimum pick.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 22:16

Sixth round recap:

6.01 Connors - Theo Ratliff, C, ATL
6.02 Langendorf - Cliff Robinson, C, DET
6.03 McRae - Zydrunas Ilgauskas, C, CLE
6.04 Gentles - Elden Campbell, C, NO
6.05 McLaughlin - Kerry Kittles, G, NJ
6.06 Georgopoulos - Michael Jordan, F - WAS
6.07 Fitzpatrick - D Marshall, F - Chi
6.08 Chizzik - E Curry, C - CHI
6.09 Slight - G Arenas, G - GSW
6.10 Slotnick - M Olowokandi, C - LAC
6.11 Ludwig – D. Gooden, F - MEM
6.12 Hall – C. Billups, G - DET

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 22:18

7.02 Richard Hamilton - G/F: Admittedly, at this point in his career, Richard Hamilton is only a 2 trick pony. He averaged 20.0 points a game last year, and shot almost 90 percent from the line. Come to think of it, his .435 field goal percentage wasn't to terrible for a guard either. He lends versatility to my roster with the ability to start at both guard and forward, but most importantly, he might finally come into his own this year in Detroit now that he is the unquestioned primary scoring threat.

7.03 Larry Hughes, G: Hughes isn't a classic point guard, but we're banking on his size and athleticism to make up for that. He's averaged 14.6 PPG this preseason and seems to be a good fit for this team. Assists will likely be a problem area for our team, but we felt Hughes' potential was worth the risk here.

7.04 – Darrell Armstrong - G

Mike D
Donor
ID: 5918285
Tue, Oct 29, 2002, 00:19

Guru, FWIW, love your last two picks. Very surprised Billups slid (blame it on the San Francisco Center Rush). I'd take Christie over Butler in half a heartbeat at this point. Miami sucks, and Butler will be very inconsistent, as will their team. Yes, he'll get opportunities, but I think he'll struggle.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 29, 2002, 07:29

7.05 - Eddie Griffin, F: Griffin showed flashes last year of a prime-time fantasy player. He has the ability to block 3 shots per game and hit a couple of threes in addition. Not too many players have that potential - especially in the 7th round. He should improve on last year's stats and although his FG% is atrocious, we can make that sacrifice because the rest of our team is strong in that area.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 29, 2002, 07:33

Catching up on some comments from prior picks in 5th and 6th rounds:

5.09 Jamaal Tinsley, G: Tinsley is coming off a rather impressive rookie season with the Pacers. Not only was he among the lead leaders in steals (1.73) and assists (8.1) but he registered 2 triple-doubles which more than proves that he is capable of being a big time roto player. His FG percentage (38%) and scoring average (9.4) needs improving but they both should improve this season with a year already under his belt.

6.04 Elden Campbell, C: Yikes!! There is nothing worse than getting involved in the latter stages of a position run. Luckily the player I had targeted before the run began was still there. You never really know what you are going to get with Elden. We all know he has the talent, but he lacks the fire and drive to be a big time player in the NBA. While his numbers don’t really jump out at you, he does contribute nicely to nearly every category. He scores right around 14 points a contest, pulls down 7 boards per game and is consistently among the lead leaguers in blocks. He steals the ball an awful lot for a big guy and his FG (.484) and FT (0.797) percentages are more than acceptable. Campbell probably won’t win me many games, but he certainly won’t cost me many either.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 29, 2002, 09:02

7.06 Juwan Howard , F

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 29, 2002, 10:35

7.07 Shane Battier G/F: I was all set to grab E. Griffin with this pick (and his potential 3 bpg) but my fellow Fordhamite Chizzik just nabbed him ahead of me. So we fall back to Plan B, Shane Battier. Battier is not a bad fallback, seeing as how he averaged over 1 blk and 1 stl per game as a rookie, as well as 5+ rpg and 14ppg. His FT% needs to improve, but it usually does with most young players.

Mike D
Donor
ID: 4372378
Tue, Oct 29, 2002, 10:49

Still not many surprises, except possibly some early center picks. By the time this ever gets back to you Guru there may still be some good values available.

The Bandwagon
ID: 539202015
Tue, Oct 29, 2002, 11:14

That McLaughlin guy has me scratching my head. Jaminson in the 3rd round with Rashard and Miles out there, Kittles in the 6th?? Looks like it will be a long season for that guy. He has 4 guards, 2 forwards, and no centers with the centers going like hotcakes.

Mike D
Donor
ID: 4372378
Tue, Oct 29, 2002, 11:22

You're making me hungry Bandwagon.

Seattle Zen
Donor
ID: 554192913
Tue, Oct 29, 2002, 11:24

Very wise decision to draft your blurb before the pick. Even Guru is human, evidenced by the fact that Caron Butler is a UCONN Husky, hense an emotional attachment. You recognized it in time.

Your team looks very tight. Keep an eye on Vlad Radmonovich out here in Green and Yellow. His numbers are going to be great, an amazing three point shooter for a PF.

Good Luck

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 29, 2002, 12:02

Yep, I'm sure the UConn connection created rose colored glasses. I eventually recognized that my supporting analysis was mostly wishful thinking, and that he'd have be wildly successful to put up numbers like Christie.

Meanwhile...

7.08 Jay Williams, G (Chi)

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 29, 2002, 13:23

7.09 James Posey - G/F

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 29, 2002, 13:44

7.10 Ricky Davis, F: I think this youngster is headed for a breakout season. Playing along with Darius Miles will help take some of the focus off him. He isn't much of a three-point shooter, but should shoot for a high percentage from the field. Overall, I expect him to be a good scorer and a solid rebounder.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 29, 2002, 14:44

7.11 Troy Hudson, G

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 29, 2002, 15:22

7.12 A.Williams - G: The best PG left at this point and the position is thinning rapidly. I was hoping that G.Arenas would fall this low but Alvin will bring similar stats to the table. He'll help my stuggling assist totals, plus he chips in with solid steals and is increasing his range to 3 point land over time. But I also think this will be Alvin's best season. He played most of last season in pain but off-season surgery seems to have renewed him.

8.01 L.Sprewell - F: He's hurt right now but should miss only 2-3 weeks. Plus it's his pinky finger, not a knee or a back. Last year he hit for over 20 ppg, 82% from the line and was 12th in the league in 3-pointers. All solid stats to offset his poor FG%. Plus my team deperately needs scoring and Spree is the best scorer left on the table. There is a risk involved because of all his off the court troubles and he could be traded, but when he plays he'll still be the best player on the Knicks.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 29, 2002, 15:23

Round 7 recap:
7.01 Hall – Doug Christie, G, SAC
7.02 Ludwig – Richard Hamilton, G, DET
7.03 Slotnick – Larry Hughes, G, WAS
7.04 Slight – Darrell Armstrong, G, ORL
7.05 Chizzik – Eddie Griffin, F, HOU
7.06 Fitzpatrick – Juwan Howard, C, DEN
7.07 Georgoplous – Shane Battier, F, MEM
7.08 McLaughlin – Jay Williams, G, CHI
7.09 Gentles – James Posey, F, DEN
7.10 McRae – Ricky Davis, F, CLE
7.11 Langendorf – Troy Hudson, G, MIN
7.12 Connors – Alvin Williams, G, TOR

8.01 Connors - Sprewell, F, NYK

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 29, 2002, 15:49

8.02 Jamaal Magloire - C

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 29, 2002, 16:41

Comments for Langendorf's picks rounds 5-8:

5.11 Antonio Davis: Davis scares me a bit -- his field-goal percentage dropped off for the fourth straight year last season -- but his rebounding and shot-blocking potential were too good to pass up for a guy in desperate need of both. I can only hope he won't wear down playing in the middle, but the dearth of good centers in the East should help his cause. Davis will be a regular No. 2 or 3 scoring option in Toronto, so his scoring could increase, and his strong free-throw percentage is a bonus coming from a big man.

6.02 Cliff Robinson: Uncle Cliffy isn't a favorite of mine, but he's a fine roto player. I'd love to see him go back to scoring in the 20s (a long shot if there ever was one), but either way I can expect a nice mixed bag of scoring, blocks, steals and 3-pointers -- the last of which is quite valuable coming from the center spot. Still, Robinson is something of a gamble, because his percentages last season were some of the worst of his career, and his rebounding is awful for a 6-10 player.

7.11 Troy Hudson: The middle rounds of the draft is where I feel I thrive, and Hudson is the kind of pick that can help me make up for missing out on the first-round rotostuds. He'll score, hit 3s, scrape up some steals and, by the looks of it, do at least a decent job of running the T-Wolves' offense and grab a half-dozen or so assists along the way. I'm a little worried about the team's acquisition of Rod Strickland -- but not as much as I am of Hudson's field-goal percentages and inexperience as a playmaker (read: turnovers).

8.02 Jamaal Magloire: This might be my favorite pick yet. Mark my words: Magloire will take Elden Campbell's job. Even if -- heaven forbid -- I'm wrong, Magloire will play enough to hook me up with the rebounding and blocks I'm jonesing for. Best-case scenario: He becomes the Hornets' starter, plays 30 minutes a game, shoots around 55 percent from the floor (as he did last season) and cranks out double-doubles and regular two-blocks performances like they're going out of style.

Baldwin
ID: 4261155
Tue, Oct 29, 2002, 18:23

Christie got picked midway thru the sixth round in the Political Forum Yahoo draft. I like Hamilton who I got at 7.02 just a tad more as I feel in order to win it all in an expert league you need room for people to overperform and I just never get the feeling Christie has another gear we haven't seen yet.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 29, 2002, 21:07

8.03 skipped

8.04 Brian Grant - F

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 29, 2002, 22:32

8.05 Caron Butler, F

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 06:51

8.06 P.J. Brown, F: PJ is Mr. Dependable... 8 rebounds, 80+ FT, high FG% and maybe a block and
steal per game. No points or assists, though...

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 09:05

8.07 Reggie Miller, G: He'll be out 2 weeks and he's getting old, but Reggie's still a solid roto player in 3 pts, steals, and points.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 09:28

I just noticed why the RotoWire projected stats had Jason Terry ranked so low (#59). They projected him as going 1-160 in three point shots!

If you are using the RotoWire projections, buyer beware. Quality control seem to be lax.

(I note that if you pull up Jason Terry's player page at RotoWire, they project a 48.5% 3-point FG%, which is high, given his career 37% average. But all of their draft projections & rankings seem to be based on the low number.)

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 11:12

8.08 - Morris Peterson, F: With Lamond Murray out for an estimated 4 months, Mo Pete should get plenty of playing time and average 15 points with at least a three and a steal per game.

Mike D
Donor
ID: 4372378
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 11:28

Getting closer to you again Guru. Eyeballing anyone or any category/position in particular, or looking for value at this point?

(I'm also trying to keep you from talking to yourself----lol)

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 11:35

Picking up a previously skipped pick -
8.03 Tim Thomas, F: Thomas can do it all offensively shoot, rebound, pass and dribble. Now he must be able to put all his tools together. This might be the year he finally emerges as a star. He will have an excellent opportunity to take over now that Glenn Robinson is gone.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 11:58

I've got seven players so far:
Guards: Terry, Billups, Christie
Forwards: Duncan, Stojakovic, Kirilenko
Center: Kurt Thomas

My weakest stat is still assists, but point guards are getting hard to find. Best remaining PG seem to be Snow, Bibby, Stoudamire, D. Fisher, & T. Parker. Bibby would need to be warehoused for awhile, and it is probably too early for that. Van Exel is also available, but unless he gets traded, I don't think he makes sense.

All of my other categories seem to be median or better right now. I'm strong in the percentages and better than average in steals, blocks, and probably threes (assuming Terry doesn't cede too many to Robinson.)

I still need a center, and the best of those include Sabonis, Macculloch, Swift, Rebraca, & D. Davis. The guy who picks before me has no centers yet, and it wouldn't surprise me if he takes one.

Other best available players include Radmanovich, Mike Miller, Jon Barry, Ron Artest, & Desmond Mason.

I have some ideas, but I'm not settled.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 11:58

8.09 – Aaron McKie, G

WeBeJammin
ID: 315461412
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 12:08

Guru, what about Keon Clark? Is he a C in that league?

Also, I'd consider Troy Murphy.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 12:39

I just went to check eligibility for Keon Clark, and discovered that ESPN has already wiped out last year's splits for players who played last night. So now I have no idea how we will determine position eligibility. ESPN was the only site I was aware of that showed splits by starting position. Does anyone know of another source?

What a mess!

100

Mike D
Donor
ID: 4372378
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 12:52

ESPN has player cards. Here is Keon Clark's. On his card, there is a choice for 2001 Game Log. This should link to all of the 2001 games. I'm currently getting the "Server Down" message, but it should be temporary.

101

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 12:59

I can pull up the game log, but that doesn't show starting position. I'd need to check each boxscore individually to see if he started 10 games at center.

The splits had that info.

102

WeBeJammin
ID: 315461412
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 13:13

I can't find the info anywhere on the net. If you want I'll help you check game by game. I'll start at the end of the season and work back.

103

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 13:14

8.10 Mike Bibby, G: Bibby was a huge disappointment last season, posting only 13.7 PPG and 5.0 APG in the Kings potent offense. Add to this, his preseason surgery on a fractured right foot and it's understandable why a point guard of his stature has dropped this far. Nonetheless, we feel this is a great spot to grab the 5th year guard. When healthy, Bibby will prove to be a steal as our 4th guard.

104

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 13:15

WBJ - thanks, but this is a bigger issue than just for Keon Clark. We're going to need a commissioner's ruling.

105

Comeback Kid
ID: 23946239
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 13:23

I just took Swift in the 9th round in Dirty Dozen, he certainly has the most upside potential of any other center, especially if he gets traded (or Wright gets hurt).

106

WeBeJammin
ID: 315461412
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 13:25

Guru, just so you know, Keon Clark started at C in the following games last season:
4/17
4/16
4/14
4/12
3/19
3/17
3/12
3/10
3/8
3/7

Didn't check further back than that.

107

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 13:26

Thanks.

108

Comeback Kid
ID: 23946239
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 13:33

I just took Swift at 9.06 in the dirty dozen. He has the most upside potential of any of those other guys, especially if he gets traded. Very strong preseason.

109

Comeback Kid
ID: 23946239
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 13:43

whoops, you heard me the first time . . .

110

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 16:15

8.11 Stromile Swift, F/C: In limited minutes last year, Swift averaged nearly 12 points, 6 rebounds, 2 blocks and one steal a game. Moreover, he shot for .480 from the fields and over 70 percfent from the line. Swift is only 23, and still has room to develop. Moreover, I suspect with the emergence of Gasol and Gooden, Swift will be traded and allowed to develop on another team. If Swift only produces like he did last year, he is an excellent all-around pick for a center at the end of round eight. With marginal improvement, he vaults into one of the top five center spots.

111

Comeback Kid
ID: 23946239
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 16:22

Looking at your team Guru, I recomend Snow and Clark.

112

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 16:29

Snow, definitely. Do you think Clark will log enough minutes?

113

Mike D
Donor
ID: 4372378
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 16:39

Questionable how many Clark gets, but he'll produce when he plays. Snow is a lock for big minutes and seems to finally be healthy. Plus he has more weapons around him this year.

114

Ref
ID: 28045169
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 16:41

I also like Rodney Rogers.

115

Comeback Kid
ID: 23946239
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 16:43

Minutes is a definite concern. I figure he'll play 20 minutes (like he did last night), and then when (not if) Webber gets hurt he looks real good. He was awesome last year when AD was injured. Plus, I imagine Divac will be used somewhat sparingly so he can be fresh for battling Shaq or Duncan/Robinson in the postseason. It also seems like you could use one more shot blocker.

That said, taking the best available player might not be a bad idea either. I agree with the guy who mentioned Troy Murphy among the BAPs here, as hard as I find it to believe that he could be any good, that 21 rebound game is hard to ignore. No guts no glory.

116

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 17:27

8.12 Eric Snow, G

9.01 Keon Clark, C

Comments later, but after hemming and hawing, how risky is it to bet on meaningful downtime for Webber and Divac?

I couldn't see Murphy at this pick, however. Even if he produces his preseason averages, it seems too early - especially without center elig.

Here's the round 8 recap:
8.01 Connors Latrell Sprewell, G, NYK
8.02 Langendorf Jamaal Magloire, C, NO
8.03 McRae Tim Thomas, F, MIL
8.04 Gentles Brian Grant, F, MIA
8.05 McLaughlin Butler, F MIA
8.06 Georgopoulos PJ Brown, F, NO
8.07 Fitzpatrick R. Miller, G,Ind
8.08 Chizzik M. Peterson, F, Tor
8.09 Slight A. McKie, G, PHI
8.10 Slotnick - M. Bibby, G (SAC)
8.11 Ludwig - S. Swift, F/C, Mem
8.12 Hall – E. Snow, G, Phi

9.01 Hall - K. Clark, C, Sac

117

Mike D
Donor
ID: 5918285
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 17:49

Again love the picks Guru. I feel Snow and Clark were much better than Murphy (among others). The long wait begins again!

118

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 21:39

9.02 Lamar Odom, F: I both hate this pick and love this pick. I'm not fond of Lamar... he isn't aggressive enough on the court to play up to his abilities and off the court his behavior is at the very least questionable. Moreover, Odom is on the IR and probably won't play for the first four weeks of the season (It wouldn't even suprise me if he was out for the season). Finally, the Clippers have amassed enough young talent to seriously affect Odom's playing time. All that being said, I still have to look at Odom's stats from two years ago of 17 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 70 steals, 122 blocks, and 80 threes. Lamar is only 23 years old, and still has time to come around. Considering the other players left (things are getting pretty slim), this pick will not break my team. But a healthy and productive Lamar Odom could make my team.

9.03 Anthony Mason, F: With Glenn Robinson now in Atlanta, we expect Mason to improve on his scoring (9.6 PPG) this season and should average somewhere in the neighborhood of 8-9 RPG. Mase is a guy that does a liitle bit for you in every area and won't hurt you.

9.04 Ron Artest – G/F

9.05 Charlie Ward, G: Ward takes over as the Knick's full-time point guard this year and if he playes the minutes, he should get solid assists, threes, and steals. The Knicks will be terrible, but we feel Ward will be a more valuable player for a fantasy team than a real team.

119

Mike D
Donor
ID: 5918285
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 21:40

Charlie Ward? What?

120

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 21:42

Catching up on comment for prior McLaughlin picks:

J. Stackhouse- We feel Stack is a solid pick here because of his improvement in his overall game last year. His scoring dropped off but all of his other totals climbed and his team got remarkably better. We expect that playing with his idol will only make him want to prove he's even more ready to come to play every night.

A. Houston- This is a risky pick, but it's a calculated risk. Houston has trouble creating his own shot, so the losses of McDyess (for the season) and Sprewell (for God knows how long) will hurt in that area. On the plus side, we all know that the lone scorer on a bad team will be allowed to get his points because the opposing team nkows that if it stops everyone else, the scorer can't win the game alone.

K. Kittles- If anyone on the Nets wants to kiss Jason Kidd on the mouth for what he did for the team last year, they're lining up behind Kerry. JK's starting backcourt mate was left for dead on what now appears to be the road to Damascus (Biblical reference: Saul became Paul). Now, after a year of getting used to his knee and his team's leader, He'll be back to running the floor with abandon, his specialty.

C. Butler- The most NBA-ready of all the rookies has gotten preseason comparisons to Paul Pierce (wow) and, along with Eddie Jones, provides his team with probably it's only true scoring threats. Plus, he rebounds well for his position and manages to get a few steals as well.

121

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 30, 2002, 22:39

9.06 Kwame Brown, F: Kwame had a great pre-season and a great opening night and I'm a Wizards fan. I've liked this kid from the beginning. He's getting used to the NBA game and should be able to average 8-10 RPG this season as a starter. He's gotten a lot more confidence and could have a breakout season.

122

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 31, 2002, 07:39

9.07 Marcus Camby, C: I was hoping to grab Lamar Odom or Bibby in this round, as I felt this was an appropriate spot for the players who are on the IR who could contribute the second half of the season. But Camby is also a good risk. While notoriously fragile, he is also undeniably talented-- capable of 10+ boards, close to 2 blocks, 1 steal and 11 points a game. Were he healthy, he'd be a top 5 center.

123

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 31, 2002, 09:38

Published comments for my last two picks:

8.12 Eric Snow, G: This was an easy pick at this stage. Snow is healthy, and has a good supporting cast around him. I see no reason not to expect a repeat performance of 6-7 assists and 1.5 steals per game, along with above-average FT shooting and a few boards. If he delivers those numbers, he’s worthy of a pick about 20 spots higher than #96.

9.01 Keon Clark, C: If Keon can get the minutes, he could be a great pick. Even if his minutes lag, he’s center-eligible, and one of the few shot blockers remaining – which gives him scarcity value on both counts. But his playing time may depend on Chris Webber’s durability and Vlade Divac’s stamina. It’s not a stretch to assume that Webber has several outages, and that Divac is rested more than in the past. If so, Clark could really deliver.

124

Aris
ID: 56710623
Thu, Oct 31, 2002, 13:22

Marcus Camby !!!

Zo and Ewing have a bigger chance of playing this season.

125

Farn
Donor
ID: 7822711
Thu, Oct 31, 2002, 13:23

is that a typo guru? did someone just use their 9th round pick on camby?

126

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 31, 2002, 13:34

No typo.

9.08 skipped
9.09 Tyson Chandler, F

127

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 31, 2002, 14:06

9.08 Vin Baker,F/C: A lot of people are already knocking this pick, but We're hoping you'll be knocking your heads together after this season. Baker put up 14 and 6.4 last year in an environment he wasn't comfortable in at all. Now, in his favorite NBA city (he was born in Connecticut and went to Hartford), we think he's capable of a 16 and 8 season despite the preseason gloom and doom. We also realize we need a center and feel he's the best option left.

9.10 Troy Murphy, F:- Murphy should blossom in his second seaosn now that he is the starting power forward. He won't dominate, but should be steady in the points, rebounds, blocks, and percentage categories.

128

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 31, 2002, 16:38

Vin Baker's eligibility at center has been challenged. Meanwhile...

9.11 Richard Jefferson, F: Jefferson is expected to step in and more or less replace Keith Van Horn in the Nets' lineup, but -- at least in fantasy terms -- I think he can do even more. He isn't the outside shooter KVH is, but Jefferson has nearly as much scoring and rebounding potential, plus he'll shoot a better percentage from the floor and offer more in the blocks and steals categories. Regardless of how he measures up to Van Horn, Jefferson should give me plenty of bang for my ninth-round buck.

9.12 Q.Richardson - G: Utterly shocked to still find Q on the board at this point. With Odom out for awhile and Miles having moved on, Q moves into the starting line-up and should have no problem drastically increasing last years 26 mpg. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him hit for 18 ppg, 160 3's, 6 rpg and 1.5 steals based on the increased minutes, projected from last years numbers.

10.01 N.Hilario - C/F: Could be a bit of a reach but the Centers are thinning out and he does qualify as one. All reports out of Denver have been positive for the huge 20 year old who already has an NBA body. With Camby out and Denver thin up front he should get his minutes and improve as the season progresses. I expect him to have no problem rebounding and to block the odd shot. Anything else is gravy. After watching Gasol excel unexpectedly last year, taking a chance on Hilario instead of some retread big man is a risk worth taking at this point.

129

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 31, 2002, 16:39

10.02 Gordon Giricek, G: I've gotta admit -- I don't know much about the guy. I hear he's an exceptional shooter, and I know there's talk of him leapfrogging Shane Battier in the Grizzlies' rotation. But here's the kicker: Jerry West loves him. And if it's good enough for The Logo, it's good enough for me. Besides, at this point in the draft, there are countless players in line for consistent minutes and who have solid potential. But how many of them could produce like a fourth- or fifth-rounder? Like teammate Pau Gasol was a year ago, Giricek could be an unknown on the brink of stardom.

130

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 31, 2002, 17:00

10.03 Tony Parker, G: To tell the truth, I'm not too fond of this guy. His assists are low for a point guard and he doesn't have much of an outside shot, but I think he is the best option left at guard at this point. Hopefully his game will mature enough to help my team out.

131

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 31, 2002, 19:44

10.04 Penny Hardaway, G

132

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 31, 2002, 20:04

Recap of recent activity:

9.01 Hall - Keon Clark, C, SAC
9.02 Ludwig - Lamar Odom, F, LAC
9.03 Slotnick - Anthony Mason, F, MIL
9.04 Slight - Ron Artest, F, IND
9.05 Chizzik - Charlie Ward, G, NYK
9.06 Fitzpatrick - Kwame Brown, F, WAS
9.09 Georgoplous - Marcus Camby, C, DEN
9.08 McLaughlin - Vin Baker, F, BOS
9.09 Gentles - Tyson Chandler, F, CHI
9.10 McRae - Troy Murphy, F, GS
9.11 Langendorf - Richard Jefferson, F, NJ
9.12 Connors - Quentin Richardson, G, LAC

10.01 Connors - Nene Hilario, C, DEN
10.02 Langendorf - Gordon Giricek, G, MEM
10.03 McRae - Tony Parker, G, SA
10.04 Gentles - Penny Hardaway, G, PHO

133

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Nov 01, 2002, 12:24

A lot of picks have transpired while the forum was down. Here's the rest of round 10, plus my pick in 11. Comments to follow shortly.

10.05 McLaughlin - Skipped
10.06 Georgopoulos - D. Stoudmaire, G - POR
10.07 Fitzpatrick - - McColluch, C, Phi
10.08 Chizzik - - D. Coleman, F, Phi
10.09 Slight - C. Andersen, C, DEN
10.10 Slotnick - N. Van Exel, G, DAL
10.11 Ludwig - D. Mason, G. Sea
10.12 Hall - M. Miller, G/F, Orl

11.01 Hall - V. Radmanovic, F, Sea

134

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Nov 01, 2002, 12:32

Comments:

10.06 Damon Stoudamire , G: To be honest, I was hoping to nab Q. Richardson here. But Mighty Mouse is still a starting PG who produces nice ppg, apg, FT and spg. Very happy to nab someone of Stoudamire's caliber in the 10th round.

10.08 Derrick Coleman - If he can make a speedy recovery, he can make a solid contribution to a fantasy team. Last year he averaged 15 points, 9 boards, a block and shot well from the field and line. We've got out fingers crossed...

10.09 - Chris Andersen, C: After seeing my season pass in front of me with Yao's first game, I need to think about getting a center. This is a considerable stretch, but there's little out there with much upside. Rather than going with a known player with no potential, I'll try an unknown player with unknown potential. Until Camby returns, he shouldn't have much trouble getting some minutes, and hopefully by then Yao will be worth starting.

10.10 Nick Van Exel, G: While the trade that sent Van Exel to the Mavs last year certainly didn't help Nick's fantasy value, he still posted rspectable numbers for the remainder of the season (13.2 PPG, 4.2 APG, 3.1 RPG). Should anything happen to Steve Nash, we have a point guard very capable of stepping in and posting nice fantasy numbers. At the very least, we should get 100 threes, decent free throw percentage (80% for his career) and a handful of points and assists.

10.11 Desmond Mason, G: The best description I've heard about Desmond Mason is "talent bomb, time of detonation unknown". Last year, in limited minutes, Desmond averages 12.4 points, nearly a steal a game, and shot well from the field and from the line. If Brent Barry reverts to form after a stellar year, Desmond will start and his numbers will increase. If not, Barry/Payton/Lewis/Mason will start at a small lineup some games, and by the end of the season one of the four will be traded for a big man.

10.12 Mike Miller, G/F: I’m a little surprised that Mike Miller is still available for the 120th pick. I suppose it is due to the uncertainly in playing time with the return of Grant Hill. Or perhaps his injury problems last year. Either way, his averages last year were worthy of a top 100 pick, and at #120, this seems like a reasonably safe pick with some realistic upside potential. He brings a pretty decent variety stats, headed by upper-echelon 3-point shooting.

11.01 Vladimir Radmanovic, F: Even if he isn’t starting, he seems likely to get significant minutes, especially with Vin Baker 3000 miles away. He should contribute a little of everything (including 3 pointers), but probably won’t dominate any category. His shooting percentages are below average, but I’ve built up a decent surplus in those categories. I consider him to be a work-in-progress who may be a long shot – but that’s what 11th round picks are for.

135

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Nov 01, 2002, 14:47

11.02 Scottie Pippen, F: Scottie is no longer anywhere near where he once was as a player. On the Trailblazers, Scottie doesn't even start. However, Scottie is still a fundamentally strong player. Last year, Scottie averaged double figures in points, 5 rebounds, and six assists from the forward spot. Scottie also contributes in steals and blocks. Considering the dearth of talent at this point in the draft, I'm hoping Scottie's play doesn't fall of even further.

11.03 Tyrone Hill, F: He's certainly not a glamorous pick, but Tyrone will get the minutes he needs to post the rebounds our team needs. We expect 10 RPG to go along with 10 PPG, with the hope that Hill can return to his career average of 50% field goal percentage (he was an abominable .390 last season). Rebounds are hard to come by this late in the draft, Hill will fill our stat sheet just fine.

11.04 Tony Delk – G

136

Baldwin
ID: 4261155
Fri, Nov 01, 2002, 17:37

Miller has the talent to put up stats like a 5th round pick and may even give them to you for a third of a year but also will spend extended periods when you don't even want to plug him in. I think he has confidence issues. On a team with an extra superstar this year taking minutes from him I would worry about him.

137

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Nov 01, 2002, 19:57

11.05 Malik Rose - F: Malik was signed to a huge deal in the offseason and San Antonio wouldn't have done so without the intention of giving him minutes. He played great in the playoffs and can play multiple positions. We are looking for solid rebounds, percentages, and the occasional block from our 11th pick.

11.06 Corey Maggette, G/F

11.07 - Amare Stoudmare, F: While this kid isn't starting yet, he has "star" written all over his game. Last year, my last two picks of the draft-- P. Gasol and B. Barry-- carried the team to the Finals when my top three picks (Webber, Mourning, Camby) all went down with injuries. This is the part of the draft where championships are won or lost; here's hoping Stoudmare can provide us with that little extra push.

138

Aris
ID: 399161218
Fri, Nov 01, 2002, 21:53

I think that Amare Stoudmire has huge potential, since he's only competing against Jake Tsakalidis anyway. What he can bring from a fantasy perspective besides a few rebounds and blocks is questionable. Even if he beats Eddy Curry's stats from late last season, he won't be a major fantasy player.

I'm surprised that Damon Stoudamire lasted this long. He was by far the best remaining point guard.

Pippen has played only 10min/gm so far.

Guru, I like your picks, but I'm biased because our rankings are probably similar. (Last year I picked Donyell Marshall and Brent Barry, who you also picked.)

139

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Nov 02, 2002, 09:33

10.05 Lorenzen Wright,C: Crowded frontcourt in Memphis. Wright's resectable numbers (12ppg, 9.4 rpg, 45.9% FG) make him worthwhile here. He has played well when healthy as a starter and, hopefully at some point, contribute to the Grizz this year.

11.08 Nate Huffman, C: If the only thing holding this guy from a starting spot is Eric Montross, we'll take our chances. 18.8 in Israel doesn't mean much over here, but 39.1% on threes means he has range, and although he won't hit 61% of his shots in the NBA, he will put up solid numbers.

11.09 Emmanuel Ginobili, G

140

Mike D
Donor
ID: 12105227
Sat, Nov 02, 2002, 09:41

Huffman??? The mother of all reaches.

141

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Nov 02, 2002, 10:55

Plus, I don't see that Montross has much relevance to Huffman's playing time. Certainly not to his ability to start.

This fantasy league starts 12 players each week, and we're only on round 11, so we aren't necessarily picking bench players yet. Seems as though Huffman could have been postponed to round 16 without much risk - and certainly beyond the 1st 12 rounds.

142

Ref
ID: 539581218
Sat, Nov 02, 2002, 11:07

39% from 22' is much different when you're shooting from 23'9"! That was stupid rationale ;)

143

miguel p
ID: 69432712
Sat, Nov 02, 2002, 14:13

I agree with Guru's 141, and I thought the same thing about Chris Andersen -- was there any chance anyone else was gonna go for these guys anytime soon? There have been some highly questionable draft strategies at work here . . .

144

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Nov 02, 2002, 14:17

11.10 David Wesley, G

145

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Nov 02, 2002, 21:46

11.11 skipped

11.12 - Jelani McCoy - C: McCoy was certainly a darkhorse 5 weeks ago but no longer. He looks like a 30 mpg player as the starting Center on the Raptor's battered frontline (for at least the first couple of months) and will provide solid rebounding, a very good FG% and a few blocks. But he's also very Shaq like from the the line. Either way, he's worth the risk at this point and looks to provide solid numbers in the early season and even longer if he can gain confidence off his quick start.

12.01 - Chris Whitney - G: Whitney will be the starting PG in Denver and should put up a few assists to go along with a bunch of 3's and a solid FT%. Until Washington changed their offense last year he had always put up solid assist/minute ratios and hopefully will return to that form in Denver. 5-6 apg wouldn't be a reach and makes him a solid PG pick this late in the draft.

146

Farn
Donor
ID: 7822711
Sat, Nov 02, 2002, 21:47

guru- considering the season is already underway, are you guys using retroactive stats or waiting until you are finished before stats begin to accumulate?

147

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Nov 02, 2002, 22:02

I don't know. The league is very poorly organized. We held a vote on this about a week ago, but the results were inconclusive, I think.

148

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Nov 03, 2002, 14:05

12.02 skipped
12.03 skipped
12.04 Toni Kukoc, F

12.05 Al Harrington, F: I'm actually really surprised he's still here. He's started to get it and looks poised for a big year after knee surgery on his ACL. Even though it doesn't directly show up in his stats, his enthusiastic play is very important to his own and his team's success and should get him PT and allow him to pick up where he left off(13.1ppg.6.3rpg).

149

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Nov 03, 2002, 15:24

11.11 Hidayet Turkoglu

12.02 Michael Redd

150

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Nov 03, 2002, 15:31

Recap of round 11:

11.01 Hall 0 V. Radmanovic, F, Sea
11.02 Ludwig - S. Pippen F, Por
11.03 Slotnick - T. Hill, F, CLE
11.04 Slight T. Delk, G. BOS
11.05 Chizzik - Malik Rose, F, SA
11.06 Fitzpatrick - C. Maggette, F - LAC
11.07 Georgoplous - A. Stoudmare, F - PHO
11.08 McLaughlin - Nate Huffman,C - TOR
11.09 Gentles - Emmanuel Ginobili, G - SA
11.10 McRae - David Wesley, G -NO
11.11 Langendorf - Hidayet Turkoglu, G/F, Sac
11.12 Connors - Jelani McCoy - C - TOR

12.01 Connors - Chris Whitney, G, Den
12.02 Langendorf - Michael Redd, G, Mil
12.03 McRae - skipped
12.04 Gentles - Toni Kukoc, F, Mil

153

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Nov 03, 2002, 15:46

Time to close this lengthy thread an start a fresh one to take us home.

Forum: hoopPage 8082Subject: PROFL Experts League - (part 2)

Forum: hoop
Page 8082
Subject: PROFL Experts League - (part 2)