Forum: hoop
Page 9616
Subject: RIHC - Draft Rationales (rounds 1-9)


  Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Sat, Oct 11, 2003, 14:48

This thread will be for managers in the RotoGuru Invitational Hoops Challenge to provide the rationale for each pick.

Lets start with the following ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will probably get deleted.)

2. Try to keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread about 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information.

3. Once the draft is over, each manager is also encouraged to provide a general draft recap, at which time you can discuss your overall strategy, mention any undisclosed factors, comment on what worked out well and what didn't, etc.

I'll copy the initial discussion from coldwater coyote's #1 pick into the first slot, and then Doug can take it from there.
 
1coldwater coyotes
SuperDude

ID: 33742418
Sat, Oct 11, 2003, 14:49
1.01 Tim Duncan, F/C
While Garnett had to figure in the decision, my final choice came down to Nowitzki or Duncan as they both qualify as Centers. Nowitzki should produce in all categories while Duncan will only produce in 5 categories. There is the risk, although small, that Nowitzki's production will go down with Jamison's presence. In the end I felt that blocks will be a harder category to fill than 3pts. and Duncan's FT percentage will improve this year.
 
2Doug
Sustainer
ID: 2730280
Sun, Oct 12, 2003, 02:31
1.02 Dirk Nowitzki, F/C, DAL
This pick was acquired via trade with RFS. I think the top 3 picks in fantasy hoops are pretty clear... and I think pretty equal statistically... so eligibility at C is the "deal breaker" in my mind (same as Coldwater noted above). Thus, I was very happy to trade up to this spot and get ahold of Dirk to start my draft off on the right foot. The only drawback to Dirk that I see is that he's weak in blocks for a C, but he more than makes up for that in other categories, espcially his FT percentage and 3s (again, considering he's a C).
 
3Dave R
Dude
ID: 541437
Sun, Oct 12, 2003, 10:00
1.03 Kevin Garnett
Although I coveted Dirk for his C/F capapilities, it's hard to feel bad when KG falls into your lap.
I never gave anyone else a thought at this spot
 
4Swish City
Leader
ID: 39252113
Sun, Oct 12, 2003, 11:48
1.04 Tracy McGrady, G, ORL
We expected to get TMac all along. We were hoping that Dirk might slip this far for the C eligibility reasons discussed already. The only other guys we considered were Marion and Shaq, but agreed that it would have been too high to draft either of those at #4. TMac is one of those rare guys that helps you in almost every category, and in our eyes, was a pretty obvious choice.
 
5hoopsklyce
Leader
ID: 5392426
Sun, Oct 12, 2003, 21:09
1.05 Shaquille O'Neal, C, LAL
Was hoping that any of the four players taken before me would 'slip' to #5. Would have taken a Kobe free of legal worries at this spot. I think Kobe could have weathered the arrival of Payton and Malone. I took Shaq thinking he had additional value for being a center although a subsequent post by Guru on the supply of centers made me think perhaps that may not be the case. If there is ample supply of centers though, I would tend to think many are of the lower caliber players making some teams who fill out centers at the end a little weaker in the categories that centers provide traditionally such as FG%, reb, and blocks. Shaq's FT% the past three seasons has been: [b]51%, 56%, and 62%[/b]. Hoping for continued growth. Would be thrilled with 65%. With Shaq on the team I should be a leader in the league in FG% and get very strong bl and reb numbers. Subsequent picks will be required to be good at FT% to balance the team out. The fact that Shaq is playing in the preseason is a change from the past two years when he missed games and then had to get in shape. Looking for a stronger than usual start. My alternative pick here was Shawn Marion.
 
7ukula
Donor
ID: 35924136
Mon, Oct 13, 2003, 08:46
1.06 Shawn Marion, F, Phx
Thought about Kobe for a second but didn't want to take the risk. Marion contributes in all categories, including above avergage FG% and FT%. Nice safe pick - the anti-Kobe.
 
8rockafellerskank
Leader
ID: 461124288
Mon, Oct 13, 2003, 09:55
1.07 Jason Kidd

This pick was obtained in a trade with Doug. I originally drew the 2nd overall pick. Although I was happy with that pick, the downside is picking so late in round 2. Without revealing too much, I have a fairly complictaed system to rate/project the top 50 players. I had TD/KG/Dirk rated #'s 1/2/3. If I had kept the #2, I would have selected KG. That is a matter of preference and how much emphasis you want to put on C eligibility. The next group of players I had rated was 4/5/6/7 (again all close in value) Shaq/T-Mac/Kidd/PP. I really thought Shaq would fall to me at #7 and that was the reason I made the trade with Doug-- I thought I was going to be able to get MY #4 rated player. Of course as it turns out, I had to choose between PP/Kidd. I choose Kidd, but won't expand on why choose Kidd until a little later in the draft. I didn't seriously consider Kobe because of the amount of uncertaintly surrounding him that has already been commented on. Needless to say, Kidd provides great assists, steal and rebound numbers for a guard. He's probably the weakest scorer of all the players taken in round 1 so I'll need to add points later on in the draft, but points are always easy to find (relative to otehr stats).

So, because I personally rated only a small drop off from 1-3 VS 4-7, I was willing to sacrifice now. I showed a much bigger drop off at about the 18-20 mark VS 21-26. So, another motivating factor for me was to get one of several players in round 2 that I had rated a "notch above" I guess I'll comment on my reound 2 pick later on.
 
9Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 13, 2003, 10:33
1.08 Paul Pierce, F
Again, Kobe was under consideration. (This was still before the preliminary hearing, but after some of his public comments when he showed up late in Hawaii.) His situation seemed too uncertain to venture a first round selection.

Paul Pierce was the best player available according to my rankings. Two season ago, he finished as one of the top 2 ranked players in this scoring format (under my system), but last year fell back to #7, mostly because his 3-pt shooting percentage dropped from 40% to 30%. I don't know why that happened (he didn't shoot as many 3-pt attempts last year, either), but I consider that Pierce has already demonstrated the potential to be a top 5 player with above average stats in 7 categories (excl. FG%). The only other player under serious consideration was Ray Allen.
 
11blackjackis21
Leader
ID: 444181610
Mon, Oct 13, 2003, 11:03
1.09 Kobe Bryant, G
As I mentioned previously, I didn't expect to have the option to pick Kobe when we initially determined the draft order. I thought he'd go somewhere in the top 7 and that I'd likely be looking at Pierce, Marion or Kidd. If (and this is a BIG if - I really don't think Kobe will sit any big chunk of the season, but may be distracted, miss a few games, etc.) I assume that Kobe performs at 75% of last year's stats, that puts him at about 22.5 pts, 5.2 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.6 steals and 0.6 blocks. My best guess is that the personnel changes for the Lakers don't have a huge negative impact on Kobe's stats, if anything his shooting % and 3's may go up. Overall, a much riskier pick than I'd like to make in the first round, but...
Others under consideration were Ray Allen and J. O'Neal.
 
12philflyboy
Leader
ID: 407561421
Mon, Oct 13, 2003, 12:20
1.10 Ray Allen G
My pick came down to 3 people Ray, Jermo and Ben Wallace. I really wanted to make sure that I drafted a good C but I thought it was to early for Big Ben. Ray offers FT%, 3's, points and is steady in the others (except blocks). Jermo was a riskier pick in my opinion with the hiring of a new coach (He loved Thomas and was irate at his firing) I was not sure how he would play this year. Overall I am happy with my first pick and gave me a solid player to build the rest of my team around.
 
14lionprideguy
Sustainer
ID: 289471616
Mon, Oct 13, 2003, 21:45
Jermaine O'Neal, F/C, Ind

I will admit that Jermaine was not my preferred choice at this selection. The top 10 picks overall were pretty well defined to me, and sitting at #11 I was left to hope that there was one surprise pick somewhere in the #6-10 range that would allow Ray Allen, Pierce, or someone else to fall to me. I had feared that Ray Allen would be taken at #10 by philflyboy, and even made an attempt to trade up a few slots to get him because I believed there was a decent drop off from #10 to #11.

There were a number of things about Jermaine that made me nervous and want to trade up for another player. A new contract which could sap some of his motivation, as well as a new coach that he didn't want, both worried me. Also, the health and increased playing time this year for Al Harrington and Jonathon Bender could put two more players on the floor for the Pacers who could hurt Jermaine's stats.

Despite these concerns, I viewed Jermaine as my best option because of his relative low risk compared to other players who were available. I considered Steve Francis, but with Van Gundy's increased role for Yao Ming, as well as Francis' occasional slumps and durability, I felt I needed someone who was a little more of a sure thing for my first pick. Ben Wallace was another consideration, although I felt I could get him at #14 if I wanted. Elton Brand was considered briefly, but didn't contribute in as many categories as Jermaine. In the end, I selected O'Neal because despite the questions, he was still the most sure thing available. This early in the draft, I thought it was better to draft safe and get a solid cornerstone at F/C flexability that I knew I could count on throughout the year, than to take a risk at the top that could put me in a hole for the rest of the season.
 
15Rand
Donor
ID: 339221320
Mon, Oct 13, 2003, 22:52
1.12 Steve Francis G HOU

There was little doubt in my mind as to who the top 11 picks would be, and I knew I would have to "settle" for Francis. I have no concern about Van Gundy's coaching style, or the Yao factor, as I believe these will improve Francis' overall game. I think that any changes will lead to a substantial increase in Stevie's assists numbers, and a more controlled offence should improve his shooting percentages. Less turnovers as well but that hardly matters in this league. He is also a top rebounding guard, a great source for steals, and even blocks a fair amount (for a pg). I guess there is the possibility that Francis will see his ppg drop as Yao gets fed the ball more often, but I'm betting that it won't be too dramatic.

Honestly, I had really hoped that some crazed Sixers fan would be in this group and grab Iverson in the first round ahead of me. Alas, that was not to be, but the more I thought about Franchise on my team, the better I started to feel about it. And matched up with Brand I feel these are the best 12th and 13th picks on which to build the foundation of a good roto team this season.
 
16Rand
Donor
ID: 339221320
Mon, Oct 13, 2003, 23:24
2.01 Elton Brand F LAC

I thought hard about taking a couple of other guys with this pick, but I just couldn't pass on having Elton on my team. Having only played 62 games (and I'm sure many of them in pain), Brand's total numbers don't sparkle quite as much as they should. But some of his averages are excellent...11rpg, 2.5 bpg, 50.3 fg%. He's just a solid dude, man. Armed with a big new contract, and no talent to steal fantasy points away from him, I anticipate an outstanding year from Mr. Brand.

 
17lionprideguy
Sustainer
ID: 906204
Tue, Oct 14, 2003, 04:00
2.02 Allen Iverson, G, Phi

Again, I considered a number of options but decided to go with the "safe" pick at this point. Now I know a 5'10" guard who throws up reckless shots is a little strange to consider safe, but at least with Iverson you know what you're getting. There were similar hesitations as with Jermaine, since Iverson also just signed a big new contract extension and has a brand new coach (and teammate). As for the contract, I was less concerned about Iverson because if nothing else, he plays hard every night and always has. And since Randy Ayers is a first-time coach, I thought this acutally might be a benefit for someone like Iverson. He was hired partially on his good relationship with Iverson, and I didn't feel like a first-time head coach would have the guts not to play his star heavy minutes and lean on him extensively. At least if he loses, Ayers would want to say that he lost with his best players out there, and doesn't have the personal credibility yet to reign in Iverson and get away with it.

I was also a bit intrigued by some of the comments coming out of training camp about the new Sixers offense, predicated on pressure defense, steals, and fast breaks. While I might disagree this would be the right strategy for the structure of the team, it certainly is a game plan that plays into Iverson's strengths (and shows even more Ayers' inclination to cater to his star player). The players had made some comments about being "held back" on offense by Larry Brown and not allowed to run as much as they wanted. If this is true, then I thought Iverson would benefit from more layups and assists on the break, increasing his FG% with easier shots to mix in with the bricks, and more steals since he's encouraged to gamble more. He may also want to prove himself in the first season outside of Brown's watch, that he can still be great on his own. Even though he gets beat up a lot, I like Iverson's toughness to stay in the lineup. Anytime there is a chance, I always like to get the guys who lead the league in minutes simply because it gives them more opportunities, and Iverson led the league in this category last year at 42.5.

Other players I considered at this pick: Ben Wallace was tough to pass up, especially the way that Larry Brown has guaranteed to get him more involved in Detroit's offense this year. However, if that offense comes at the expense of focusing on blocks and rebounds, I could be disinclined because it's easier to find scoring than it is Ben's other categories (although this looks like it won't be a concern). If I had gotten Ray Allen with my first pick, I definately would have taken Ben Wallace here to balance it out, but with Jermaine already at Center I was inclined to get a cornerstone guard as well. With this preference, Marbury was considered as well but I felt like Iverson was more of a sure thing. My first preference overall would have been to work out a trade to move down 4-5 spots where I felt like I could still grab Yao Ming, and be able to upgrade my second pick into the late 20's for better roster balance.
 
18philflyboy
Leader
ID: 407561421
Tue, Oct 14, 2003, 06:31
2.03 Ben Wallace FC, DET
Wow what more do I need to say than what Lionprideguy just said in his last paragraph. I did take Wallace because I thought he fit very well with Allen. I also like the idea that he might be more offensive this year too. I wanted to fill a C spot earlier with a quality Center. I really did not consider anyone else when I knew that Wallace was still left.
 
19blackjackis21
Leader
ID: 444181610
Tue, Oct 14, 2003, 10:13
2.04 Stephon Marbury, G
This pick was sort of a Kobe-hedge. If Kobe's going to be unavailable or uneffective for any large streches throughout the season, I wanted a player that I thought I might be able to form a foundation from, regardless of position. I considered Yao Ming, Pau Gasol and Shareef, and if I knew for sure that Kobe was 100% I might have gone with a big man. I had Terry and Marbury ranked similarly - they both contribute to points, assists, FT%, steals and 3's, but ultimately I liked the potential for an improving Marbury-led Suns team.
 
20Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 14, 2003, 10:40
2.05 Jason Terry, G, Atl
Last year, in the PROFL expert league, I selected Terry with pick #25 (first pick in the 3rd round). I was far from sure about him then, and others questioned whether he deserved to be picked so high. But he had a very solid season, playing well enough to have justified a late first round pick. And this year, I had him ranked #11 overall. Even though I already had one guard (Pierce), I decided to take Terry as the best player available based upon my rankings.

Terry isn't spectacular in any category, but brings strengths in all of the traditional guard categories. Terry also gets extra credit for durability, playing in 81 games last year, and averaging better than 80 games per season for his first four years.

Curiously, the other player who tempted me the most was Andrei Kirilenko. While pick #17 might be a little high for Kiri, I was pretty sure he wouldn't slide to my next pick at #32 (and I was correct). Kirilenko would have given me better statistical balance after 2 picks, but I figured that it was still a bit too early to be worried about that.

If Terry merely repeats last year's numbers, I'll be satisfied. At age 26, why shouldn't he?
 
21rockafellerskank
Leader
ID: 461124288
Wed, Oct 15, 2003, 10:02
2.06 Vince Carter G/F, Tor

This pick (#18 overall) was obtained from Doug as part of our first round trade. I had 3 guys slotted for consideration at this position: Vince, Yao, & Shareef Abdur-Rahim. There were some other quality players near this slot at PG, but since I had Kidd, I wasn't interested there. There was a slight hope when I made the trade that Ben Wallace would fall this far, but no dice - pfb took him at #15.

Everything I have read this year points to Vince having a good season-- if his health holds out. I'm hoping for 25.0 PPG, 4.0 assts, 5.0 rebs, and 1+ steals/blocks/3's per game, 48% FGs and 80% FTs [though he doesn't go to the line enough for me]. Maybe a bit otimistic, but I think it's realistic. Vince also brings G/F eligibilty on the Yahoo! game which is a slight plus this early in the draft that may give some flexibility down the road. Somewhat based on potential, I just think Vince was the best fantasy player available at this slot.

Yao was a real consideration here (Wallace gone), but decided to wait on the C category in general and see how the draft unfolds.
 
22ukula
Donor
ID: 39959156
Wed, Oct 15, 2003, 10:23
2.07 Pau Gasol, F, Mem

At this spot I'm looking for the best available player. I'm leaning my search toward players that are low-injury risks and young enough to be on the rise rather than a star that has reached his career plateau.

I looked at Webber but he's coming off an injury and won't be back for the start of the season. I also looked at Rasheed Wallace but he's a headcase and he surpasses my limit on tattoos. Gasol is still young enough to increase his numbers and hasn't missed a game in his first two years in the league. Marion and Gasol give me a solid low-risk foundation.
 
23hoopsklyce
Leader
ID: 5392426
Wed, Oct 15, 2003, 14:15
2.08 Shareef Abdur-Rahim, F, Atl
Candidates I considered at this point were Rahim, Yao Ming, and Andrei Kirilenko. I thought it was a tad early for Kirilenko despite the fact I felt he would be a top 20 player. The thought of having my first two picks a center intrigued me - thought it might put pressure on other owners to scramble for centers before their time.

But an overpowering factor was a player who gave strong contributions at the FT line to help offset the damage Shaq would do to the team. For that reason I took Rahim. I also thought Robinson leaving the Hawks would give him an expanded role. I have some concern that he is not playing in the preseason because of off-season back surgery but he is supposed to be ready for the regular season. Might have taken Gasol had he not gone in previous pick.
 
24Swish City
Leader
ID: 39252113
Wed, Oct 15, 2003, 19:09
2.09 Yao Ming, C, Hou

There was a little bit of hope that we might be able to grab Shareef or Gasol here - however, they were both taken right before we picked. This was no disaster however - Gasol is not C eligible like last year.

I expect big things from Yao this year. He already shoots a great FG%, and his FT% is excellent. Considering he'll go to the line more this year as his offensive game improves, that could turn out to be pretty important. Tandem that with him being the focal point of the Houston offense this year, and at least 2 blocks a game, and the word 'Stud' springs to mind. And of course, it great to get a quality C early on.

The other player we considered here was Arenas. Its tough to expect him to play as many minutes as he did at the tail end of the season at GS, especially with Stack and Hughes around. We also felt that having TMac already, it wasn't a necessity to have Arenas. Yao was a far better fit to give us the balance we need to have more draft versatility in the following rounds.
 
25Dave R
Dude
ID: 1367294
Wed, Oct 15, 2003, 20:20
2.10 Steve Nash PG Dal

I wanted to start off early with a PG, Kidd and Terry were gone so it came down to GP or Nash in my mind. I believe Nash will have an outstanding year again and has an arsenal of weapons to support him. Call it a gut feeling
 
26Doug
Sustainer
ID: 31649212
Wed, Oct 15, 2003, 20:36
2.11 Predrag Stojakovic, F, SAC


After Guru took Terry, I put together a queue... Ming, Carter, Nash, Gasol, Stojakovic, Kirilenko.

I was guaranteed one of them, and was hoping one of my top ones would fall through, but in the end I am very happy with Predrag. I wanted a solid foundation to my squad and I felt he provided that with a great all-around game (like Dirk), and also had great shooting percentages. His assists are weak, but I figured I'd be getting a PG at my next pick to address that concern.
 
27coldwater coyotes
SuperDude
ID: 33742418
Thu, Oct 16, 2003, 01:09
2.12 Jamal Mashburn
3.01 Gilbert Arenas


I was very surprised that Mashburn was still available, I assume that his history of injuries puts most people off. His numbers would justify a much higher draft pick; a little weak on rebounds but his excellent assists and 3's stats fully compensate for this and overall he is very close to being in the Pierce/Marion league.

I felt I had to go for a point guard with my next pick to keep up the assist category. Good all around point guards are at a premium and I had hoped that Nash would be available. Arenas makes me a little nervous with his move to Washington especially when it is combined with the upheaval that the team is going through.
 
28rockafellerskank
Leader
ID: 461124288
Thu, Oct 16, 2003, 09:49
3.02 Chris Webber F

Many drafts such as ESPN was showing Webber going earlier than #26 overal (average 13.1 at the time I picked), but recent news about his surgery has him back on the court not until the first 10 days of December. I thought this was about the right slot for Webber, considering he will play only about 80% (at best) of the games, I didn't steal him here.

I am hoping that I can use good decsion making to patch in this F spot until he returns part time. if I can "tread water" out of this spot, I'll be happy. Needless to say, this is a Gamble, but if the real Webber shows up, I'll have a happy x-mas!

I also considered Amare at this spot. I tried to balance 80% of Webber [+ p/t bench player as fill in] VS Amare's full time position. Obviously, I had no hope Amare would slide to me at my next pick. oh well.

 
29Dave R
Dude
ID: 14644179
Thu, Oct 16, 2003, 11:38
3.03 Andrei Kirilinko f Uta

I had targeted Kiri as a pick I wanted at that point. I expect improvement from him in all categories, especially with Malone and Stockton gone.
After I picked I began to second guess myself as some know but from the offers that were made to me, i felt my initial assessment was sound.
 
30Swish and Edgar
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 16, 2003, 17:07
3.04 Amare Stoudemire, F
When the 28th pick came around we had a lot to think about. Our team was well balanced out with Yao and TMac so it was a good time to think about the strategy for the next few rounds. When Kirilenko, our obvious pick here, was not surprisingly snatched by Dave R we thought about the following players; Andre Miller, Baron and Amare. Andre will probably have a good season but Baron looks in real great shape. So Baron had our edge right there. On the other hand picking a forward would be a good addition to balance our team. Amare was ROY and looks in even better shape. He will be one of the stars of the ERA to come. Slowly but surely he will add moves and shooting to his amazing body strength. There is no reason why Amare should not average 18 points and more than 10 rebounds a game at high percentage shooting while adding a big number of blocks and some steals. Quite similar to Elton Brand's current stats.

I really went back and forth on Baron and Amare a couple of times. Even already writing the pick Baron Davis in the thread. But did not press the post button. Still do not know if we made the right pick because Baron looks to be even better than before. In the end we decided on Amare, the thought of him having more upside potential and the rumour he has added a jumpshot to his impressive driving to the hoop was the last info we needed. We know it is an early pick but Amare did not disappoint us last year so he looks like a great addition to our squad.

 
31hoopsklyce
Leader
ID: 5392426
Thu, Oct 16, 2003, 22:09
3.05 Sam Cassell G, Min

I was set to take Jerry Stackhouse at this point as the perfect player to complete the Shaq FT% offset but backed off because of the uncertainty I read about his knee. I would have taken Kirilenko but he went a couple picks previous. I wanted a G since first two picks were C and F. It came down between Baron Davis and Sam Cassell and decided to eliminate Davis because of his FT%. I have some concern about Cassell's scoring dropping in Min. but hope with KG around it helps his assists.
 
32ukula
Donor
ID: 46935176
Fri, Oct 17, 2003, 10:30
3.06 Baron Davis, G, NO

This was more of a risky pick for me considering Davis' injury-riddled season last year. I already had two forwards so I needed a guard/center. I had doubts about the effectiveness of both Andre Miller and Gary Payton so I went with Davis. Hopefully it was the right choice.
 
33Doug
Sustainer
ID: 2730280
Fri, Oct 17, 2003, 11:34
3.07 Andre Miller, G, DEN

My general philosophy is always to take the best player available, so I definitely considered a couple forwards here... Rashard Lewis, Caron Butler, etc. but felt I should get a G to complement my first 2 pcks, and that there were guards available who wouldn't be a "reach".

I heavily considered Allan Houston because I thought he was the best G available, but was already strong in FT%, 3s, and really needed more of an assist man. Thus it came down to Miller or GP... and I gave Miller the nod because of FT% and he seems "safer"... GP I feel could have been a great pick, but also had the potential to let me down... I just feel his stats are less "certain" this year, but it was a close call... especially being a Lakers fan and all... I want to root for my guys!

I'm excited by Miller too though... I think he's in better health and in a better situation (that's more a comment on the Clips than it is the Nugs) and will have a better chance to show his stuff this year.
 
34Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 17, 2003, 12:10
3.08 Rasheed Wallace, F, Por
Rash shed the bad boy title last year (to Ron Artest, no doubt), and heading into the last year of his contract, he should have plenty of financial incentive to produce (as well as to behave). He's averaged about 1.5 3-pointers per game, unusual for a power forward. With Pierce and Terry as my first two picks, I was looking for a big man, and with Wallace available, I didn't feel like I was reaching at all, so I really didn't seriously consider anyone else.
 
35blackjackis21
Leader
ID: 444181610
Fri, Oct 17, 2003, 12:25
3.09 Antoine Walker, F, Bos
Had hoped to get Kirilenko here - was looking for a big man who did a little bit of everything given my first two picks were guards who did not shoot 3's particularly well. Walker certainly has done well in this category in the past (2nd only to R. Allen last year in 3's per game). While not entirely happy with Walker's FG% and FT%, he does enough in the other categories that I wasn't really considering anyone else here. I liked Michael Redd, but hoped to get him in the next round.
 
36philflyboy
Leader
ID: 407561421
Fri, Oct 17, 2003, 12:40
3.10 Jerry Stackhouse,GF.Was

I had a few reasons for drafting Stack. First was I liked his flexability as a GF. Always seems during the season you need a player or two to be able to play different positions because of injuries. Second reason is with Jordan gone Stack is now the man in Was. He should see a rise in his ppg. It does concern me now with the injury he has in preseason but hopefully a week into the season he will be fine.
 
37lionprideguy
Sustainer
ID: 289471616
Fri, Oct 17, 2003, 13:05
3.11 Michael Redd, G, Mil (traded for Antoine Walker)

Obviously with Payton and Cassell gone, expectations for Redd to take over as one of the leaders for the Bucks this year are high. He's a rare shooter who should be be at or near the top of league in 3's, but won't drag down your overall FG% either. Solid FT% as well, and has shown some potential to be a good rebounder. Redd is one of the guys who fares far better in roto leagues than fantasy. I went back and forth on this pick many times, though, I'll admit. While I like the opportunity he has to take over in Milwaukee, there is still some talk about him coming off the bench and Desmond Mason has started a few of the preseason games ahead of him. While Redd still manages to get good minutes anyway, I had a hesitation drafting someone at #35 overall who might not even be a starter on their own team. Also, I tend to lean toward diverse players who can contribute in many categories, and Redd was a little light on assists for a guard for me, and didn't get as many steals as I expected. The potential for all these stats to increase this year with the Bucks, though, made me think it was a reasonable risk.

The guy I went back and forth about the most at tihs pick was Lamar Odom. I really wanted to draft him because of his versatility, although I knew it would be a little high. But everybody in Miami is excited about him, and he seems to be dedicated in a new way. Motivation has always been his problem, and between him choosing to go to play for Pat Riley, and Riley's own intense nature, I was hoping that fire would rub off on Lamar. He's one of the few players who can get great stats in every category from blocks to 3's to assists, even though the FT% still hurts. But I finally got scared away because he has always had the tendancy to defer and disappear, and can easily follow up a dominant game with one where he barely shows up (just see the last two preseaon boxscores!). A week later, though, I'm still second-guessing myself about not getting him. I also considered Gary Payton and Rashard Lewis, but thought Redd had the greatest situation for individual stat success of all three.
 
38lionprideguy
Sustainer
ID: 289471616
Fri, Oct 17, 2003, 13:21
trade thoughts

I thought I would also post my reasons for trading Redd for Antoine Walker, if it would help to contribute that as well:

I had actually hoped to somehow have Antoine Walker fall to my 3.11 selection, but since I saw Guru and blackjackis21's initial picks were mainly guards I was sure they were going to take Rasheed and Antoine. Because of this I had made unsuccessful efforts on two seperate occasions to trade up earlier in the round to be able to take Walker before he was gone. I know that probably seems like I'm crazy to be so anxious to get an unpredictable gunner like Antoine. For the same reasons I am always tempted by Odom, I can't help the way that Antoine fills up so many different stat categories.

The main reason for me, though, goes back to this summer. I work at the Pump Brothers Best of Summer Tournament at the end of July each year, the one where SI had the article about the Atlanta Celtics team with Josh Smith, Dwight Howard, and Randolph Morris. Antoine Walker was also at the tournament, there with a summer team that he sponsors and helps to coach. The thing that got my attention, though, is that I didn't realize it was Antoine the first time I saw him! He was so much slimmer, in great shape, that I didn't recognize him. That was two months ago, but at that time all the stories about him working hard to get in great shape were definately true.

Last year was Walker's worst arguably since his rookie year. His physique when I saw him told me that I could expect him to bounce back this year, and if he just returns to his numbers of two years ago, he would have been a second round pick easily. The talk of Boston having a more uptempo, running offense, and Walker running with them and rebounding more, would also help his FG%. While I knew putting Iverson and Walker on my roster together would just kill my FG% category, I felt I couldn't pass the opportunity to add someone that could be a top 15-20 player and help me in almost every other category. It's a risk, but you gotta take them somewhere. Later in the draft when this happened, I was also extremely guard-heavy with no forwards, so that put the decision over the top for me to be able to balance the roster a bit.
 
39Rand
Donor
ID: 339221320
Fri, Oct 17, 2003, 13:45
3.12 Gary Payton

I didn't think Payton would drop as far as the 36th pick, so I was pretty surprised when I had the opportunity to take him. I wasn't considering another PG yet (after Francis), but felt that Payton was too good to pass up. Picking late, I felt I'd lost a lot of ground in some of the more glamorous categories, so I decided to fortify my assist and steals totals. Payton says he wants to lead the league in Assists, and he is obviously strong in Steals, plus the drive to win a championship will keep him motivated all year. His scoring will go down some, but who knows how the whole LA situation will shake down? I certainly don't, but I do know that Payton is proven performer and this year should be no different.

fwiw, all along I thought I'd end up with Redd and Rashard Lewis with the 36/37th picks.

4.01 LeBron James

I feel this may prove to be a mistake. After Redd was taken I was going to pick Rashard Lewis but suddenly changed it to Lebron. It could turn out great, but I'm thinking it might be too much of a wildcard pick this early in the draft. So I'm keeping my expectations low, but hoping for the best.
 
40lionprideguy
Sustainer
ID: 289471616
Fri, Oct 17, 2003, 14:49
4.02 Jamal Crawford, G, Chi

It seems like it would be great, since I had such a hard time not selecting Odom three picks ago, that he was still available and I could take him now! But for the second straight time, I went as far as typing his name in the message box and seeing how it looked on the post preview, but couldn't make the final decision with him.

This was probably a little high to take Crawford, but I knew I wouldn't be able to get him 20 picks later when I had another opportunity. Crawford is going to have his biggest chance for a breakout year so far this season, and the way that he played in April of last year once he got consistant PT was attention-grabbing. Of course it would be rediculous to expect him to get those kind of numbers across the entire season, but he still should be able to do extremely well. Not only could he be among league leaders in assists, but he also seems to pull in a good amount of rebounds for a point guard due to his 6'5" height, he gets steals, and his FT% is solid. Some reports from Chicago say that he's also the team's best 3-point shooter, and I think that he might have been among the league leaders in 3PFG/48 min. The issue with Crawford has obviously been playing time. Without Jay Williams, I saw that the other starting guard right now is Trenton Hassell (with Jalen Rose to play SG during the season) and Crawford's only competition is Kirk Heinrich. Umm, with competition like that, I don't think PT is going to be an issue this year. He's been held back by injury and PT, but this year the Bulls want to see what they have.

Other than Odom, I debated Rashard Lewis a bit again but wasn't confident in his consistancy quite yet. Probably would have taken Gary Payton had Rand not grabbed him, and thought about Jalen Rose briefly but realized I might as well take the Bull who could have the best year overall. In order for this to work, I definately need Crawford to have a breakout season. If we were doing this draft at the end of the year, though, I felt like Crawford would have been gone by now because of his ability to contribute in points, assists, steals, rebounds, FT%, and 3PFG. Heck, with that height, maybe he can even block a few opposing PG's shots.
 
41philflyboy
Leader
ID: 407561421
Fri, Oct 17, 2003, 17:47
4.03 Eddy Curry,FC,Chi
Last year he led the league in FG%, and finished strong. I look to Curry to help in FG%, Boards, Blocks and points. His FT% will hurt a little at under 70%. Chicao is looking to him to be one of the go to guys this year and if he can average what he did at the end of last year he will be a solid performer.
 
42blackjackis21
Leader
ID: 34837521
Fri, Oct 17, 2003, 21:08
4.04 Theo Ratliff, F/C, Atl
Maybe a little early to grab Theo, but I needed blocks and wasn't loving anyone else avail. here. He led the league in blocks last year (I believe), and though he might not help me much elsewhere, he shouldn't hurt either with decent FG% and FT% relative to some of the other block leaders.
 
43Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 17, 2003, 21:34
4.05 Matt Harpring, F, Utah
Harpring may become the marquis player in Utah this year. That's good for Harpring, and bad for the Jazz. He put up very respectable numbers last season as part of a much stronger lineup. I'm hoping for 20 ppg and 7+ rebounds, with ancillary contributions in steals, threes, and FT%. I'm getting him in the fourth round, but I think he offers the potential to contribute stats warranting a third round selection.
 
44Doug
Sustainer
ID: 31649212
Fri, Oct 17, 2003, 22:10
4.06 Rashard Lewis, F, SEA
I felt people were starting to reach on Cs and Gs, so figured I'd stock up on quality Fs while I could. There was one guard I considered... Allan Houston (ironically, he was "erroneously picked" just before my turn, but I was not aware that this was the player Ukula had posted). I was suprised to still see Houston on the board, and he would have given me a total lock on FTs and 3s, but I felt it was better to strengthen my team in other areas to give myself a shot at an overall win by staying balanced. Houston also had off-season knee surgery, which was only a minor concern since it was all the way back in June (I believe).

But Rashard is an very exciting player and I feel has even brighter prospects this year. Last year he seemed disgruntled, but I have heard none of that as of late. A quality all-around player, with good percentages much like my first two picks. The one other player on my radar here was Caron Butler, who should post very similar stats to Rashard, but having recently undergone knee surgery he seemed a bit more of a risk, and I thought there was at least a very slight chance that he might slip through to my next pick at 5.07 because of that.
 
45ukula
Donor
ID: 20831621
Fri, Oct 17, 2003, 23:34
4.07 Allan Houston, G, NY

As Doug stated I jumped the gun and made my pick when it wasn't my turn. Guru took it off the board but "strongarmed" me into accepting this pick anyway. ;)
I was unsure whether Houston was a wise pick since he contributed points, a very strong FT%, and 3's, but basically nothing else. When I say nothing else I mean nothing else. A rebound once in a while would be nice, maybe even an assist. What does this guy do on the court? Does he just stand there? Oh well, I debated this pick back and forth with the little guy on my left shoulder and the little guy on my right shoulder and finally went with the little guy on my right shoulder since, just between you and me, the little guy on my left shoulder is more of a baseball guy and doesn't know sh*t about basketball.
 
46hoopsklyce
Leader
ID: 5392426
Sat, Oct 18, 2003, 08:44
4.08 Chauncey Billups

I was looking for the best playing available here but still wanted a player with decent FT%. Candidate were Eddie Jones and Jalen Rose. Selected Billups thinking he still had upside but somewhat concerned on the impact Larry Brown might have on his role. Jalen wasnt playing (nothing serious) and Eddie missed many games last season and brought in Dwayne Wade who plays the same position.
 
47Swish City
Leader
ID: 39252113
Sat, Oct 18, 2003, 11:16
4.09 Jason Williams

When we hit this stage, it seemed that assists were our main need - hence taking a PG. Obviously JWill ranks very high in this category. We also felt he helped a lot in 3s, FT% and steals. His FG% is poor, but based on our 1st 3 picks and the relative lack of shots JWill will take compared to this, we thought this was something that we could absorb at this stage.

Other players considered were Billups, who was taken the previous pick, and Odom, who we decided to wait until the next round to try and get, as there was only a 6 pick gap.
 
48Dave R
Dude
ID: 1367294
Sat, Oct 18, 2003, 12:02
4.10 Brent Barry

I also was looking to bolster assists in this round, took a gamble with Barry taking over the point. He has an excellant SG to dish the ball to as well as some other scorers
 
49rockafellerskank
Leader
ID: 461124288
Sat, Oct 18, 2003, 14:03
4.11 Eddie Jones, G, Mia

I am still looking for best player available at this point in the draft, although my 3rd round F is hurt and I have no C's yet. I had Eddie ranked at #36 overall.

Eddie stuffs the stat sheet pretty well for a G. I'm expecting 18.5 PPG, 3.8 ASST, 4.8 RPG. it's not unreastic to expect him to hit 2.0 3's per game and be among the league leaders in steals per game (1.7 to 1.8?). Of couse Eddie missed a lot of time to injury last year-- nearly 1/2 the season, but I decided not to worry about what i can't control. I'm also hoping that the addition of an athletic Lamar helps Eddie's game in getting some easier shots. While Eddie has good FT% #'s, the obvious knock on him is Fg%. Oh well, you can't have it all with 4th round picks.

Other players I considered at this spot were Ricky Davis, Wally (injury canged my mind), Finley (maybe injury problems)and Doug Christe.

 
50Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 18, 2003, 20:00
4.12 Jalen Rose, G/F
Rose will help in every category except Blocks but Tim Duncan's blocks carry me a long way in the draft. Somebody in Chicago should step up this year to be a major star and my guess is that it will be either Crawford or Rose. The downside of this pick is Rose's attitude. I vowed that in this draft I would stay away from players who had "attitude" problems and rookies. The latter seem to always disappoint for at least the first half of their first year.

5.01 Lamar Odom, F
Here I go again and break one of my basic rules and select a player who has had an attitude problem (as well as a history of drug problems). Life under Riley in Miami should be a little quieter than LA and Odom's pre-season results would indicate that to be true. Perhaps a third rule of my draft should be to pay little attention to pre-season stats. Clearly Odom has the talent...perhaps I should have first checked to see whether Odom is not living in the South Beach area!

 
51rockafellerskank
Leader
ID: 461124288
Sat, Oct 18, 2003, 20:02
5.02 Ricky Davis, G/F, CLE

In retrospect, I wish I had taken a C at this spot. I was planning to take Tyson Chandler here, but when I looked at the available C's that were acceptable to me, I decided that Z, or Magloire would get back to me. Of course, I have another pick at 6.6, so I think I can afford to pass-oops. This non-pick would come to dictate several of my next picks. A change of strategy at this point.

Based on the exact same rationale as my last pick, I took the player that I had rated highest. I could say some of the same things about stat sheet stuffing and good chemistry that I said about EJ with my last pick. RD is a G/F, so a small plus there. Same group as I passed on before were in my queue (plus I took a hard look at Richard Jefferson which is ironic because I have already picked Kittles @ 8.11 and stated that I passed on 'Zo in round 9 and I own Kidd @1.7!)

But, back to Ricky. I'm projecting 20.0 ppg, 5.1 apg, and 5.0 rpg. He should also mirror Eddie's numbers in steals, block, but maybe only one 3 per game. Ricky also sends my FG% into further decline (I'd love to get .430 from him)

 
52Dave R
Dude
ID: 1367294
Sun, Oct 19, 2003, 12:36
5.03 Tyson Chandler C?F CHI

Felt it was time to pick up a center, although in retrospect I maybe could have waited a round or two. Although there were some others I considered, I'm just hoping for a breakout season from Tyson.
 
53Swish and Edgar
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 19, 2003, 21:32
5.04 Glenn Robinson, F, Phi
When this pick came up we were pleasantly surprised to see Big Dog still on the board. At this point we were looking to add a proven quality F with already young guns Ming and Amare on our squad. So it seemed like a good move to add some veteran safety. Big Dog will provide us with plenty of scoring, a good FT% and some steals and rebounds. His stats could be a little worse than last year because of moving to Philly and playing with AI. However since maybe his rebounds can go down it might help his bad FG% and assists. How this will work out remains to be seen. At position 52 we thought it was a pretty obvious decision to add him to our squad. Others we considered were Z, Eric Snow and KMart. KMart seemed like the lesser option mainly because of his poor FT%.
 
54hoopsklyce
Leader
ID: 5392426
Sun, Oct 19, 2003, 21:58
5.05 Mike Bibby, G, Sac
Aspects of Bibby's game that I like are his assists, steals, and FT% and occasional threes. Just wish he did a little more of the above. While I wish Bibby has more upside to him I have to believe he may be at his potential now. The fact that Bobby Jackson seems more productive at times gives him some downside. Went back and forth between Eric Snow and Bibby. Thought that each were justified to be taken at this spot.
 
55ukula
Donor
ID: 20831621
Sun, Oct 19, 2003, 23:33
5.06 Kenyon Martin, F, NJ

Another player that fits into my strategy of picking players with a chance to improve. I was kind of surprised to see KMart still available here. I tossed some other players around but decided to go with KMart and his unresolved contract situation because he seems to post big numbers when he feels he has been DIS-respected. I remember last year when he didn't get selected to the All-Star team and he banged out HUGE points for a while. KMart in a contract year might offer him the same motivation. I can only hope.
 
56Doug
Sustainer
ID: 2730280
Mon, Oct 20, 2003, 11:47
5.07 Caron Butler, F, MIA
With 4 solid players already on my team, I felt a little more comfortable taking a mini-risk on Butler. Keeping consistent with my theme, he has a good all-around game and good percentages. He also boosts my steals. I also considered Finley as a G, because it seemed a LOT of guards were going off the board and I didn't want to be left out... but rather than join in what I felt was "mass reaching", I decided to take the best player available who I felt was Caron. Karl Malone was the one other player in my queue when my pick came up, but I was really really happy to have Caron drop to me here in round 5.

Oh, and with respect to the knee surgery, by comparison I also noted that Finley has missed over 40 games the past two seasons (combined, not each). Malone is healthy but at his age in a new system I don't know that he'll be going "full-bore" all season... I particularly would expect some late season rest. In that light, the risk seemed minimal, since Caron is young and only had minor surgery... so I don't expect that it'll take him long to be in game shape, clearly making him the best choice available to me here.

 
57Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 20, 2003, 11:57
5.08 Eric Snow, G, Phi
I was really hoping for Kenyon Martin here, but he got snatched away two picks earlier. While I'm still weak in board crashers and shot blockers, I didn't think that any of the other rebounders were worth a 5th round pick.. Snow was one of the best players available, and it doesn't hurt to grab another point guard at this juncture, as they are getting more and more scarce. He won't score much, but the addition of Glenn Robinson should give him someone other than Iverson to pass to. He'll also contribute good support in steals and FT%, the latter category which will need the support once I start nabbing some big men.
 
58blackjackis21
Leader
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 20, 2003, 11:59
5.09 Doug Christie, G, Sac
At this point in the draft, I was looking for the best all-around player. I was a little surprised and quite happy that Christie was still available. While certainly no spring chicken, I feel he will continue to get significant minutes for the Kings and contribute in many different categories. Others I considered at this point were Finley and Malone.
 
59philflyboy
Leader
ID: 407561421
Mon, Oct 20, 2003, 12:24
5.10 Michael Finley,GF,Dal
Bibby, Odom and Finley were the 3 I was looking at for this slot. I missed the other 2 by a few picks so I was happy to go with Finley. He should average close to 20ppg again this year and is a pretty good rebounder. Finley helps with his FT% and his GF eligibility.
 
61lionprideguy
Sustainer
ID: 289471616
Mon, Oct 20, 2003, 14:37
5.11 Nick Van Exel, G, GSW

A pick that isn't looking so great a week later, so definately proceed with caution to anybody who is looking at Van Exel at the moment. This pick was made a day before he injured his knee, which of course would have made a difference in my decision. Since then, Van Exel has left the team to consult with his doctor in Dallas who did his last surgery, and it's still up in the air a week later. Dr. Van Exel said it would likely be a minor surgery that kept him out 3-4 weeks, but I'd like to hear from a professional doctor for a more reliable opinion.

At the time, it sounded like things were going well for Van Exel at least temporarily in Golden State. While he probably fell this far because of the risk of a trade that would send him to a contender, those things had died down at the time and he was at least putting up a front that he was happy to play this year in Golden State, so I was expecting 18 points and 7 assists from him, definately helping my assist numbers. We'll see now.

This was the point in the draft where the lists of players to consider definately expands, and I thought about everybody from Carmelo to Richard Jefferson to Jason Richardson to Tony Parker and Nene. My final 5 were Van Exel, Maggette, Jamison, Artest, and Karl Malone. Artest was probably the closest, and I was hoping I could survive Rand's two picks and still grab him. Maggette and Jamison didn't get enough categories across the board for me, and I figured Van Exel had the greatest potential for a lot of stats this year. It was a gamble, but I figured even if he was traded he would still get more time and opportunities than he did in Dallas. Either way his stats would increase, and the potential payoffs made it seem like a decent risk at the time
 
62Rand
Donor
ID: 339221320
Mon, Oct 20, 2003, 17:50
5.12 Zydrunas Ilgauskas

I almost didn't pick him because his name is so freakin' difficult to spell, but I couldn't overlook those great point totals for a center and his 2 blocks per game. Of course, he is an injury risk and his FG% and Boards are not that great for a center, but I'm hoping his Rebound totals will increase as he picks up all the shots that Lebron misses. I knew I wanted a center with this 60th pick, and the choice came down to Z and Jamaal. Combined they make one great center though, so I simplified my decision and just took both of them. I figured most or all of the 2nd tier centers would be gone by the time my 7.12 pick rolled around so I thought I'd lock down this position with two quality guys.

6.01 Jamaal Magloire

I love this guy, and it's not just because he's Canadian. I'm confident that Magloire will see major improvements in all his numbers as he becomes THE man in the middle for New Orleans. His offence leaves something to be desired, but it has increased slightly every year and this year could be the one where he pulls it all together. I don't actually have him ranked this high, but he's a slamdunk for nightly double doubles and I just couldn't pass up on a canuck.

If Finley had fallen to this point, I probably would have grabbed him. Artest was the only other available guy to catch my fancy, but he's a loose cannon and, besides, I truly believe Jamaal is gonna rock this season and I'm gonna enjoy ever minute cheering on my homie and his monstrous wingspan.
 
63blackjackis21
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 10:14
6.02 Karl Malone, F, LAL
I kept looking for guys that would be able to help overcome Walker's shooting % deficiencies. When Malone was still available at lionprideguy's pick, I decided to try to alleviate that problem and make an offer of Walker and 6.04 for Redd and 6.02. I knew that he had an interest in A. Walker and I figured this helped me two-fold: I improved on Walker's %'s with Redd, without sacrificing 3's, and I was able to get Malone, who I feel will benefit most of all the Lakers if Kobe is unable to go for whatever reason. I feel this trade improves my team quite a bit, especially if Redd can get significant minutes in Milwaukee.

Malone was my only consideration.
 
64philflyboy
Leader
ID: 407561421
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 12:23
6.03 Tony Parker,G,SA
At this point in the draft I felt I was really short in assists. After looking over the players still available I felt that Parker was the best person left for me to pick. He will score some for me (16ppg) decent assist (6pg). He gets some steals. Shooting percentages are not great but he should be ok.
 
65lionprideguy
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 12:39
6.04 Ron Artest, G/F, Ind
I had been pretty set on this pick from the moment I took Van Exel at 5.11, hoping Artest would still be around and even regretting a bit not taking him in the first place. If he had been taken, I would have considered the same players I had as finalists at 5.11 (Karl Malone, Maggette, and Carmelo Anthony). When the possibility came up for the Antoine Walker trade, my only concern was whether I could survive waiting two more slots to still get Artest. I thought it was a risk, but at the time I also thought Antoine was going to get 40+ minutes and lots of touches every game. Of course, that's all up in the air now, but at the time it was a move I wanted to make, and I'm glad I was at least able to still grab Artest.

Artest of course is a risk with his volatility, but maybe I'm overly optimistic in thinking that he might start to be a little more mature this year. Not because of his new coach, but simply because he's a competitor and wants to play all the time. And if nothing else, he will realize that when he's suspended or ejected, he can't be on the court anymore, and will learn to stop short of that line more often. He played large portions of last season with a broken finger or something like that, which means his stats were held down a bit. While his great defensive abilities don't show up in the box score, it does ensure him to get possibly the most minutes of any player on the Pacers and so he has more time to fill up the other categories. He's a diverse player who can hit 3's and will be near the league lead in steals, but also pick up rebounds and blocks as well. Of course, Ron Artest also claims he could average 40 points and 20 rebounds a night if he wants. So either he's still pretty nuts, or I'm in for the fantasy steal of the year. While I tend to lean more toward the "he's crazy" side of that possibility, I felt like he was a great steal in the 6th round.

With our rosters starting to take more shape by this time, I thought Artest combined with Iverson and Crawford could give me a solid chance to take over the steals category, and when you add in Walker and Van Exel, a good chance at the 3's as well.

 
66Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 12:43
6.05 Richard Jefferson, F, NJ
Jefferson wasn't an obvious pick, but he offers reasonable stats in many categories. At only age 23, he should still be improving each year. It would be nice if he got a few more treys, but maybe that explains his above average FG% - he just doesn't shoot much from long range. Jeff had occasional flashes of "studliness" last season, and I'm hoping that those episodes increase in regularity this year.

A healthy Wally Szczerbiak might have beaten out Jefferson for this pick, but his foot problems seem to be persistent, and it's also uncertain how the personnel changes in Minnesota will shake out. Kerry Kittles was another one I considered.
 
67rockafellerskank
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 12:49
6.06 Troy Murphy, F, GS
Ok, now I'm screwed for a while at C - though Nene was a reach at this slot.

This was pretty easy pick for me. Murphy should be a solid 15/10 guy this year assuming he picks up a few of Jamison's shots. A mid 40's fg% and mid 80's ft% were good enough for me for a big guy at this point too.

I didn't vary much from my initial reaction that Murphy was my pick at this point. But, I don't have another pick until 7.7. At this point, I'm worried that a lot of talent is moving off the board, but what can I do?

 
68ukula
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 12:49
6.07 Corey Maggette, G/F, LAC
Was thrilled to snag Maggette here. Apparently his role is going to increase on the Clippers with the loss of Odom. I'm expecting much better numbers than last year in all categories.
 
69hoopsklyce
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 12:50
6.08 Richard Hamilton, G/F, Det
Boy I was hoping I would not feel obligated to take Hamilton since I felt I did not need his main asset of scoring. But I felt we was clearly the best player on board at this time. I also did not think I needed to pick another guard. To think he would have trade value to exchange for another category would be wishful thinking since he lasted so long on the draft board. He may be the last 20+ ppg to be taken in this draft. His is like Allan Houston without the dimension of treys and not quite as good at the %'s.
 
70Swish and Edgar
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 12:51
6.09 Carmelo Anthony, F, Den
Believe it or not, this was the round we targeted to get Carmelo, so for him to be there at this stage made it a much easier decision. Carmelo will be the #1 option in Denver, and should score at least 15 PPG, although we're hoping for somewhere around 20 PPG. The main point for us here was to get some more heavy duty scoring on board to allow us to concentrate on other categories. We didn't know what to expect from him rebounding wise, but allowed for 6 rpg at worst. He gives us respectable percentages, and some 3s and steals too.

We looked at Jamison and Richardson here also. Jamison does not have any upside compared to being in Golden State last year. And the newly created Antoine Walker factor also seems to indicate it was the right decision to leave him here at the point. Is this Richardson's year? We weren't willing to gamble 40% FG to find out, especially with JWill already on board.

 
71Dave R
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 12:52
6.10 Nene Hilario, F/C, Den
I like the fact that Nene contributes in a multitude of categories, much like Kiri. At this juncture I felt he was the best fit for my team. In addition, being center eligible he solved my center problem in the event no one else materialized.
 
72Doug
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 12:56
6.11 Keith Van Horn, F, NY
I thought about Jamison here as "Dirk insurance"... I was concerned that he has had back spasms lately, but on the other hand he played 82 games the past 2 seasons. I really needed Gs at this point, but there had been a lot of Gs going earlier than their equivalent F counterparts (IMHO), so I decided to stick with best player available strategy. If the Consonant's plantar fascitis weren't a concern, I would have taken him here. Also considered Boozer, but seemed a bit more of a reach.
 
73coldwater coyotes
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 12:57
6.12 Jason Richardson, G, GS
I needed help in the 3pt category and Jason Richardson was the obvious selection. Last year his numbers were good but below many "experts'" projections. He has the talent to improve and I predict that this year, his third year, he will show a clear improvement.

7.01 Kurt Thomas, F/C, NY
Lacking a second Center, Thomas stood out for me. While his results are more typical of a PF than a C (specially in respect to blocks) they are nevertheless better all round than all but the top five centers. I feel that his availability in this 7th round reflects a reluctance by many people to draft Knicks.

 
74Doug
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 12:58
7.02 Zach Randolph, F, Por
When I made pick 6.11, I thought I might get lucky and have Jamison fall to me at 7.02. He did. But I second guessed myself again, and decided Zach was the better option. I looked at a few additional Gs (Bonzi, Spree, M. Miller, Tinsley) and even another C (B Miller)... but none seemed to have the same upside that was available by picking up Zach. I was really happy to get Lewis and Butler when I did, but I think this may have been my best pick in the draft thus far.
 
75Dave R
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 12:58
7.03 Cuttino Mobley, G, Hou
Time to go guard shopping and fely that Cuttino was the best available at this juncture. Can make the 3, but average in most categories. Despite being a streaky shooter his FG% is decent, FT% is more than acceptable.
 
76Swish and Edgar
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 12:59
7.04 Carlos Boozer, F/C, Cle
With Carlos, you know what you're getting - 10 boards and great percentages. Kinda like PJ Brown, but a whole lot younger. There may even be potential for a block and steal a game if he improves enough. And he is most definitely still improving. He fully addressed our needs for another prime rebounder. Somebody will need to rebound all those misses from Lebron and Ricky Davis. Carlos showed signs of becoming a great fantasy player last year when provided with the minutes. He will start this year so minutes will not be a big problem we think. Also we needed another C eligible player at this point and he was simply the best available. Again, Jamison was considered (we could not believe he was still here), but Boozer fits better than a good pair of shoes.
 
77hoopsklyce
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:00
7.05 Drew Gooden, F, Mem
I like Gooden's upside potential and hope he can make positive contributions to my rebound category. Last season he averaged over 12 rpg for the Magic in the playoffs. There may be some downside to him with the addition of Juwan Howard but I think each should spend some time at C for the Magic. Was hoping to get some blocks at this spot but those guys have been picked over.
 
78ukula
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:00
7.06 Brad Miller, C, Sac
I needed a center. All of the top centers were gone so I needed to grab someone while I could, otherwise I'd be left with a couple of schleps. Miller should get decent minutes while Webber is out and hopefully he can supplant the chain-smoking Divac by that time as well. Nice FT% for a center. One site actually had Miller ranked #5 for centers. I'll take that in round seven.
 
79rockafellerskank
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:02
7.07 Antawn Jamison, F, Dal
Ok, I know he is a ball hog and doesn't rebound well for a F and not sure how he will blend into Dallas, but since I have given up on C's, I'll force myself and take what I think is clearly the best available player (I had him at #60 overall). I did make a post that I would consider moving him if someone wanted his PPG, but no offers to date!

I'm expecting 18.0 ppg and 6.0 rebounds would be a blessing. Of course he doesn't pass, steal or block, but again, similar FG%/FT% to Murphy should help.
 
80Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:04
7.08 Bonzi Wells, G/F, Por
Here I am in the 7th round with no centers. I thought about taking one now, but I had to look too far down my ranking list to find one. So I'll stick to my "value" guns and not chase one.

The best healthy players on my list were Bonzi, Kittles, Derek Anderson, and Stephen Jackson. Of that group, I thought it was too early to go for Jackson, as he should last a few more rounds. Kittles had some injury problems last year which stunted his total stats, and I see that he is not getting picked until much later at ESPN, so I figured I could wait on him as well. He could be a tempting pick in round 8 or 9. That left the two players from Portland.

Bonzi is lobbying to play SG, and Mo Cheeks seems to be considering it. If so, Derek Anderson may be scrambling for minutes, although I suspect there are still plenty to go around. It sounds like Bonzi may be looked upon to score more this year, and we're running lean on scorers now. He gets his fair share of "hustle stats", and while his shooting percentages are a bit below par, I think I've built up the some room to absorb those. Comparatively, I can't really find much problem with Anderson's stat line, however. Call it a hunch. Maybe I just like the idea of having a player named "Bonzi".
 
81blackjackis21
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:05
7.09 P.J. Brown, F, NO
PJ strikes me as a perennially under-valued roto-player. He's not very flashy in any single category, but last year averaged close to a double/double with good shooting %'s from the field and from the stripe. Tough to get real excited about him, but I think he's a solid pick in the 7th round. Also considered Brian Grant at this point and would have taken him on the way back if available.
 
82philflyboy
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:06
7.10 Juwan Howard, F, Orl
Juwan will be playing Center this year also so he will become FC eligible. He offers a solid amount of points and rebounds per game and will be ok with assists from a big guy. In the past his shooting percentages have been ok. He should get a lot of quality minutes and be a productive player.
 
83lionprideguy
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:06
7.11 Mike Miller, G/F, Mem
Although I thought the draft would get easier by this time, it was actually the point where it began to get harder because there seemed to be less differentiation and so then the choices became less obvious. For example, somewhat interested in getting a second strong center and helping my rebounding numbers, this was the first point where Alonzo Mourning's name appeared on my radar. I would have taken Antawn Jamison at the time, and would have loved getting Zach Randolph or Nene but both were long gone.

Without an obvious choice standing above the others, this is actually where I decided to just get the best available player and figure out how to fit them together later. I've never been a great fan of Mike Miller, so this pick was made mostly on trust in Jerry West. West thought highly enough of Miller to trade his first round pick from last year for him, sign him to a huge extension, and talk about building this year's team around Miller. Without any better ideas myself, I thought I could at least take a chance on what Jerry is doing, if Miller really will be a center of the offense in Memphis. His numbers last year were depressed by an injury they now claim is 100%, and thought he would have gone higher if he had been healthy. I thought he could contribute solid FT% and 3's while throwing in 5+ rebounds and 3-4 assists, especially if he touches the ball every time down. With the contract and commitments West has made to him, I have to believe Memphis will give him every opportunity to have a breakout year. My other finalists were Keon Clark, Kwame, Desmond Mason, Darius Miles, and Nesterovic, each considered in case I wanted to make a jump in a specific category. In the end, I decided to go with who I believed was the most well-rounded instead.

 
84Rand
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:07
7.12 Latrell Sprewell, G/F, Min
This was a painful round for me as all the players I was hoping to acquire kept getting picked. Chose Sprewell to start working on my 3s. His 134 treys were pretty good last year, but most of his numbers seem off to me. Like all my players, I project a good improvement on his lousy .403 FG %. Although he is aging fast, I think Latrell is in the right place at the right time to have a great year with a very good team. I feel really good about getting Sprewell with my 84th pick.

8.01 Brian Grant, F/C, Mia
837 total rebounds, .509 fg%. Just couldn't pull my eyes away from those numbers. I see Grant as a PF on my team, but it's nice to have the C eligibility in case Zydrunas goes down (which is a very real possiblility). So it's nice to have that back up Center plan. I was really interested in Ginobili, and was sure he'd be gone in the next round of picks, but Grant supplied too many rebounds to pass on at this point. So I signed him up.

 
85lionprideguy
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:08
8.02 Kwame Brown, F/C, Was
After drafting so many guards and small forwards, I felt a bit more pressured at this point to make sure to get a big man who could hopefully get some rebounds and blocks. While he is sure from a far thing, Kwame seemed to have a much bigger potential for upside this year than the other options, mostly Keon Clark, Zo, and Nesterovic. Those three are either plateaued or somehow limited, while Brown is still growing and is in the best situation to leave them behind. The stories are pretty common about this being Kwame's chance to prove himself outside of Michael Jordan and Doug Collins, and I have to believe he has some kind of desire to prove himself after taking such a beating the last two years. Looking at the other low post players in Washington, I have to believe that Brown will at least get a huge increase in minutes this year and won't have much competition to keep him off the court. This also seems to be the year that Washington wants to see what they really have in him, so I think they'll center their post offense around him and give him every chance to succeed. He's definitely going to have some ups and downs, and I don't expect anything crazy like 18/12 from him, but I think 14/8 could be conservatively reasonable. Throw in the fact he's said to have grown to a full 7 feet, and that he's athletic and energetic, and he seems to get a good amount of steals as well as the expected blocks. It's his third year, the time that a lot of players out of high school either make the jump or they don't, and I think Kwame still has enough talent for this to be the year he begins to step up. This could also be a pick where I look really foolish.
 
86philflyboy
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:08
8.03 Alvin Williams, G, Tor
I needed some help with steals and assists. Alvin should help with both of those. He plays through injuries and should be a solid player. He did suffer with a lot of injuries last year but this year he should be relatively healthy. His shooting and free throw percentages are pretty good.
 
87blackjackis21
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:09
8.04 Keon Clark, F/C, Utah
This may have been a stretch, but I'm hopeful Keon will get enough minutes this year to help out in a few categories - namely blocks and rebounds. I don't think he has much competition among the big men in Utah, and the few times he started and got minutes last year, (and the year prior to that), he did well. Also considered with this pick were: Olowokandi, Szczerbiak, and Mourning.
 
88Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:10
8.05 Stromile Swift, F/C, Mem
Kittles was still available. Derek Anderson was still available. Stephen Jackson was still available. I had considered all three of them for my previous pick.

But I still had a donut roster, and finally there was a center-eligible player who seemed appropriately valued for an 8th round pick. So I took him.

Swift has never quite measured up to his purported potential, but he began to show some flashes during the second half of last season. After the All Star break, he average 12 ppg, with 6.7 boards, 1.7 blocks, .9 steals, 50.6%FG shooting, and 73.7% FT shooting. Granted, he still has to battle Lorenzen Wright for minutes. But Swift is only 23, and on the final year of his contract. If ever there was a time for him to put together an entire season, this would be the one.

Here's hoping that this year, the race belongs to the Swift.

 
89Doug
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:11
8.06 Wally Szczerbiak, G/F, Min
I know he's got an injury, I know there are some new scoring options in MIN, but at this point the risk/reward seemed just too good to pass up. And I needed to start drafting some Gs. Other guys considered were Wade, Tinsley, Mason and Kandi... but I figured it was time to roll the dice. Let's hope it pans out... because the last thing I need is G who's gonna be missing a lot of time.
 
90ukula
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:11
8.07 Michael Olowokandi, C
I might as well take my second center while he's still there. Olowokandi should put up decent numbers after leaving the depressing Clippers. Miller and Olowokandi give me a solid but unexciting duo at the center position, but a lot better than I was looking at two rounds ago. I'm happy with these two guys.
 
91hoopsklyce
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:12
8.08 Dwyane Wade, G, Mia
Although a rookie, Wade is not a teenager. He will be 21 (or so) next season. I have read that the starters should get heavy minutes for the Heat and Wade should be starting. I think he has the potential be play better than other players taken at this point in the draft. He was slowed by a sprained ankle in the preseason which hopefully took some attention away from him. In his first six preseason games he has averaged 2 spg and 1 bpg (for a guard!) so I am excited about his potential in these categories.
 
92Swish and Edgar
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:12
8.09 Emanuel Ginobili, G, SA
We are now hitting serious sleeper territory. It seemed the right time to take Gino here. If we waited any longer, we feel he would have gone. Although it might be a bit of a reach it could pay off big time. Having missed out on Crawford and Curry earlier on, we were keen to land a breakout guy on our list. Gino fits the bill. He should have good numbers across the board - 2 steals and 2 3s a game is not out of the question. No Stephen Jackson = big PT for Gino. Also it seems that Parker will be more of a scorer and some of the assists could go to Gino especially with his shown ability to play the inside and out with Duncan. We needed some Gs at this point, with the quality starting to deteriorate quickly, and the priority for the previous few rounds to nab some sterling Fs.
 
94Dave R
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:32
8.10 David Wesley, G, NO
Decided on Wesley for various reasons solid in 3's assists for a SG, and steals. Might see some time time at PG if Baron goes down.
 
95rockafellerskank
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:34
8.11 Kerry Kittles, G, NJ
Along the same lines of thinking as Guru in post 80, I'm not "reaching" yet for a center, although the idea of picking up Alonzo about this point was about where I though his value was/is. Kittles provides a decent all around game, but his health can be problematic. [This is an issue to keep in mind as I type this and look at my band aid brigade of a team]. Assuming Kittles can stay on the court, I like having 2 players on the same team for the purpose of enjoyment when I'm watching games - though this was an afterthought. Kittles should average 12-13 ppg, while getting 3-4 rebounds & assists per night. Throw in 1-2 steals, or 3's per night and I'm a happy guy. My FG% still stinks at this point and Kittles doesn't really shoot enough to help raise it (much), although he should be respectable.

Other than researching various centers at this slot, I didn't give much consideration to any other small player. I should mention that I would have taken Kandi had he fallen a few slots.

 
96coldwater coyotes
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:35
8.12 Desmond Mason, G/F, Mil
A good all round and exciting player. With the drastic changes in Milwaukee, I can envision Redd and Mason taking full advantage of the situation and stepping up a notch or two. I suspect that Tim Thomas will again disappoint and not make such an improvement.

9.01 Kenny Thomas, F, Phi
He completes my pair of K. Thomas'. A favorite of Larry Brown's who blossomed once he acclimatised to Philadelphia. Let's hope that Randy Ayers has the same faith. If he does then we should be looking at a nightly double double.

 
97rockafellerskank
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:35
9.02 Larry Hughes, G, Was
With the news of Stack's surgery leaking and Hughes early preseason burn, I put him on my radar. There was also talk that Stack would play SF to make room for Hughes at SG on WAS. I think perhaps I got too early on the gun for Larry though, could have gotten him a round later? Well, if he plays to his potential, I look good, if not I went too early. That's the same potential that guys like Larry Brown once banked upon, ya know! Good enough for Larry Brown, good enough for me.
 
98Dave R
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:36
9.03 Joe Johnson, G/F, Pho
A little bit of a reach here, has performed well last season and in the preseason. Banked on him beating out Penny as a starter which doesn't appear to be going to happen. Still he will get reasonable minutes and has the ability to help in a lot of areas.
 
99Swish and Edgar
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:36
9.04 Jamaal Tinsley, G, Ind
Everybody seemed to have been going for PG's the last couple of rounds and we were weak on the assist category. Tinsley seemed the only proven quality PG left. Jamaal did not have a stellar season last year, you could attribute this to the famous sophomore slump. His rookie year was excellent. We feel that he will be able to bounce back this year and his preseason performances have given us a slight indication he will. Sure, adding another 39% shooter hurts but he will gives us plenty of assists and steals to compensate. If he improves on his FG% a bit this could become a nice addition. Other players we considered here were Darius Miles and Shane Battier.
 
100hoopsklyce
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:37
9.05 Stephen Jackson, G/F, Atl
Jackson was at the top of my depth chart. I am optimistic about his prospects with Atlanta and assuming a larger role on this team than he had with the NBA champion Spurs. He is good in the steal category and will be a starter for the Hawks.
 
101ukula
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:38
9.06 Donyell Marshall, F, Chi
Even though Marshall will be coming off the bench this year, I'm expecting around 25 minutes per game and he usually bangs the rebounds. His free throw shooting has improved since his UConn days when he clanked two shots against Florida to send the Huskies packing. Jerk!
 
102Doug
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:38
9.07 Marcus Camby, C, Den
Early on in the draft I figured C's would be going earlier than they "should" because of their scarcity. I picked up a C who doesn't get many blocks early on... so I figured I'd probably just tank the block category altogether. However, at this point in the draft, my strategy suddenly changed. I saw Camby and a few other shot blockers I liked still available, and I had been able to draft a number of Fs so I actually was in reasonable shape in the blocks category. Assists, on the other hand, were looking bleak... I needed a second PG to go with Andre Miller, but really didn't see any that I liked. So this was the beginning of a shift in my strategy to tank assists rather than blocks, and thus began my thoughts to trade away Andre Miller...
 
103Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:40
9.08 Radoslav Nesterovic, C, SA
This was my mist difficult pick yet. This is pick #104, and that's where I have Nesto rated - #104. There are a fair number of higher rated players still available, but every time I set out to pick one of them, I found a reason to talk myself out of it. Players that I considered included Derek Anderson, Antonio McDyess, Damon Stoudamire, Bobby Jackson, Malik Rose, Shane Battier, T.J. Ford, Alonzo Mourning. In the end, I couldn't get comfortable with the risk/reward tradeoff of any of them. Meanwhile, I feel pretty comfortable that Nesterovic will provide about 12 points, 7 boards, and 1.5 blocks, 50% FG, and hopefully won't torpedo my FT%. I'll take my gambles later, I guess.
 
104blackjackis21
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:41
9.09 Alonzo Mourning, C, NJ
Because I drafted guards with 3 of my first 5 picks, I was still looking for F's or C's. I had considered 'Zo the prior round, but still was not entirely decided on this pick when it came to me. Obviously a huge question mark, but the news out of New Jersey sounds promising. In the end, I thought there was enough of a drop-off at C after 'Zo to make him worth nabbing.
 
105philflyboy
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:41
9.10 Marko Jaric, G/F, LAC
Marko will be taking over the point since Andre is gone. He is a good shooter, can hit the 3 and can see the floor well for assists. With his speed he should be able to average over 1.5 steals per game also. This might have been a little early for Marko to be picked but With a couple of my earlier picks struggling with injuries I needed to make sure I had enough guards to play.
 
106lionprideguy
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:41
9.11 Darius Miles, G/F, Cle
I got burned more by Miles than any other player in last year's TSN game, so I was especially hesitant to pull the trigger on this one. Last season, I held firm for over a month I think, while he never came close to contributing anything near what he had done in the preseason.

However, Miles is like Odom for me, and continues to be tempting despite past disappointments because of the great promise and talent. Like a lesser version of Odom or Antoine Walker, Miles can get everything from rebounds to assists to steals and blocks, but can't shoot at all. Yes, I have a weakness for this kind of player. What especially intrigued me was the experiment this preseason of Miles playing point guard for the Cavs. While I'm not sure I like this from a basketball perspective (just as I wouldn't put Antoine Walker at Point Forward), but despite what it does to the team's W/L record it certainly makes for great roto stats potential. I was also able to watch one of the Cavs preseason games on TV when they played in LA, and I was actually impressed with Miles playing a bit smarter and having a far more improved jumpshot than I ever thought he could get to. He still spent way too much time standing around and watching when he didn't have the ball, but maybe he can get assists passing to all of LeBron and Ricky Davis' shots, and then pick up extra rebounds from the many they will miss. Since I had considered drafting him as early as 7.11, I thought I would be best off just doing it now and not regretting a missed opportunity later.

 
107Rand
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 13:42
9.12 Tim Thomas, F, Mil
No pre-season numbers to go by, but Tim Thomas is a talented young Buck, who has the 'potential' to be something special. I think he should provide sufficient numbers in many Cats and could be poised for a breakout season. I gotta believe (since I picked the stiff) that with the Big Three gone, Tim Thomas has a fantastic opportunity to shine.
 
160Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 15:49
Rationales for rounds 10-15 continue in this thread.