Forum: pol
Page 2265
Subject: Conservative Republican - Peak Oil is Here


  Posted by: Pancho Villa - Sustainer [533817] Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 18:50

While many cheer the bandaid approach of drilling in ANWR, conservative Maryland representative and scientist Roscoe Bartlett, goes into painful detail about Peak Oil, and the crisis that is imminent.

Congressional presentation

Selected excerpts:

What is the current U.S. status? We have only 2 percent, between 2 and 3 percent, not really known for certain, but approximately 2 percent of the known reserves of oil. We use 25 percent of the world's oil. By the way, we have about 8 percent of the world production. What that means is if we have only 2 percent of the reserves and 8 percent of the production, that means we are real good at pumping oil, does it not? That means we are pumping our reserves at roughly four times faster than the rest of the world. That means that this 2 percent will not stay 2 percent by and by because we are so good at pumping oil, we are going to be down to 1 percent of the known reserves in the world and we will still be using about 25 percent of the world's oil. We are now importing about two-thirds of that. At the Arab oil embargo we imported about one-third of that. So we are now importing, relatively, two times more oil, actual quantity much more than that, but relatively about two times more oil.

What now? Where do we go now? One observer, Matt Savinar, who has thoroughly researched the options, and this is not the most optimistic assessment, by the way, but may be somewhat realistic, he starts out by saying, Dear Readers, civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. I hope not. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse Bible sect or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is a scientific conclusion of the best-paid, most widely respected geologists, physicists and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by the phenomenon known as global peak oil.

Why should they be terrified? Why should they be terrified just because we have reached the peak of oil production? Last year, China used about 30 percent more oil. India now is demanding more oil. As a matter of fact, China now is the second largest importer of oil in the world. They have passed Japan. When you look at how important oil is to our economy, you can understand the big concern if, in fact, we cannot produce oil any faster than we are producing it now and there are increasing demands, as there will be, for oil. In our country, for instance, we have a debt that we must service. It will be essentially impossible to service that debt if our economy does not continue to grow. So there are enormous potential consequences, which is why he says that these people are absolutely terrified by the phenomenon known as peak oil.


As a matter of fact, the people that were talking about this until very recently have been quickly relegated to the lunatic fringe. If I had been up here 3 or 4 years ago talking about this, someone may want to relegate the two of us this evening to the lunatic fringe.

Unfortunately, our country is currently in a NASCAR mindset. We simply can't continue to drive 500 miles in a circle at 200mph and expect the situation to correct itself. Our leadrs must insist on immediate action, and Bush's energy policy doesn't even begin to address the magnitude of the problem. In the words of Rep. Bartlett:

The impact and the consequences are going to be enormously greater than the impact and the consequences of Social Security or Medicare or those two put together.



 
1Tree
      ID: 212401018
      Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 19:01
god forbid we come up with more fuel-efficient vehicles, vehicles that don't rely on oil exclusive, and tax the f*ck out of those people who want to buy vehicles that get craptastic gas mileage.....
 
2sarge33rd
      ID: 34251187
      Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 19:33
cont do that Tree. It would mean taxing the very people sbrubbery runs with.
 
3Pancho Villa
      Sustainer
      ID: 533817
      Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 20:24
Fuel-efficient vehicles are only a small part of the equation. Read the part in the article about Jevons Paradox.
It states basically that it's not enough for an individual or even a nation to adopt the procedures necessary to at least slow the inevitable. It has to be an international effort with safeguards in place that keep Jevons Paradox from taking place. It is not only individual consumers, but industry that must be weened from oil into alternative energy sources.

This statement from a recent Australian legislator gives a lot of insight as to what to expect in the not-so-distant future.

The challenges we face after peak oil will require localised food production and industry in a way not seen for 100 years. Local rail lines and fishing fleets will be vital to regional communities. Selfcontained communities living close to work, farms, services and schools will not be merely desirable; they will be essential.

Let me conclude with this simple statement of fact. Peak oil is coming—soon—and no alternative energy source available to us today or in the foreseeable future is going to make up the total energy shortfall. The beginning of the end of the oil age is upon us, and it is time to respond fully to that challenge.

source
 
4Tree
      ID: 212401018
      Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 21:01
Sarge - that's the point. we have this insane man in the office, and a legion of supporters behind him, who refuse to accept the fact we have a global world in every sense of the world. but not signing Kyoto, by not working within international accords, we are dooming more than our own nation...
 
5nerveclinic
      ID: 92471221
      Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 21:42
People hate it when I say this but I think they already have this problem figured out. They are just squeezing all the money out of fossil fuels they can. Once we reach critical mass on this issue a new "suprize" fuel will appear to replace oil.

The underground science is always light years ahead of what they tell us.

IMHO.
 
6Pancho Villa
      Sustainer
      ID: 533817
      Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 22:02
That would explain why a refinery hasn't been built in this country for 30 years. Why build an expensive refinery that will soon be obsolete?
 
7Madman
      ID: 572371022
      Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 23:29
There is some mind-numbingly stupid logic in that piece. For example:

We must not squander the opportunity that we have. Jevons Paradox becomes applicable here. Just a word about what Jevons Paradox is because I am going to mention it a time or two again. But Jevons Paradox says that frequently when one works to solve a problem, they really make the situation worse.

Let me give one little example. Suppose there is a small businessman who owns a store. He is really concerned about peak oil, and he is concerned about energy, and he wants to do something. His little store is using $1,000 worth of electricity a month, and he decides that he can really cut that use. So he does several things. He gets a storm door. He puts on storm windows. He insulates more. He turns down the thermostat, and he asks his workers to wear sweaters. And he is successful because he reduces his electric bill from $1,000 to $500. Almost no matter what he does with that $500, he has just made the situation worse by doing that.

Let me explain. One of the things that he may do, and it is a natural thing for a small businessperson to do, he may decide, I could hire more people and have a bigger business if I expanded. And so now he will expand, and he will still be using as much energy. Or if he decides to invest his money, if he invests his money in the bank, the bank will lend his money out five or six times, and at least some of those loans will be to small business people. And what the small business people will do is to create jobs and use energy. So the store owner is concerned about energy and the environment and being a responsible citizen, cutting his use of electricity, because everybody did not do it, because only he did it and nobody took advantage of the opportunity that was presented because he used less energy, he really contributed to the problem.


Dead wrong.

If you reduce your energy needs by $500 and then choose to expand your business, you only have $500 to use to expand your business. Not all of that $500 is going to go to extra energy use. Ergo, the secondary effect on energy use will not cause an overall increase.

The second possibility that he mentions is saving and money-creation by a bank. Note that he has used a *financial* not an economic argument. He suggests that the *money supply* has increased by 5*500, not the economy. For the economy to have grown by that amount, you would have to have an increase of 5*500 in aggregate economic activity. All we know here is that people who got loans from the bank have purchased 5*500 more, we don't know the implicit opportunity cost of that action.

As a general rule, if savings increased by 2% of GDP I don't know of any economist who would suggest that GDP would increase by 10%. Further, more saving is likely a good thing because it makes research and development and investment cheaper -- things that can HELP our energy efficiency rather than hurt it.
 
8Madman
      ID: 572371022
      Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 23:32
PV -- you might want to read EIA brief on refineries before drawing that conclusion. brief



Refining/Downstream
The United States experienced a steep decline in refining capacity between 1981 and the mid-1990s. Between 1981 and 1989, the number of U.S. refineries fell from 324 to 204, representing a loss of 3 million bbl/d in operable capacity (from 18.6 million bbl/d to 15.7 million bbl/d), while refining capacity utilization increased from 69% to 87%. Much of the decline in U.S. refining capacity resulted from the 1981 deregulation (elimination of price controls and allocations), which effectively removed the major prop from underneath many marginally profitable, often smaller, refineries.

Refinery closures have continued since 1989, bringing the total number of operable U.S. refineries to 149 in 2003. In general, refineries that have closed have been relatively small and have had less favorable economics than other refineries in their market area. Also, in recent years, some smaller, less-economic refineries that had faced additional investments for environmental reasons in order to stay in business found closing preferable because they predicted that they could not stay competitive in the long term.

While some refineries have closed, and no new refineries have been built in nearly 30 years, many existing refineries have expanded their capacities. As a result of capacity creep," whereby existing refineries create additional refining capacity from the same physical structure, capacity per operating refinery increased by 28% over the 1990 to 1998 period, for example. Overall, since the mid-1990s, U.S. refinery capacity has increased from 15.0 million bbl/d in 1994 to 16.9 million bbl/d in September 2004. Also in September 2004, utilization of operating capacity at U.S. refineries was averaging around 90%, down from 97% in July and August. Although financial, environmental, and legal considerations make it unlikely that new refineries will be built in the United States, expansion at existing refineries likely will increase total U.S. refining capacity in the long-run.

 
9Madman
      ID: 572371022
      Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 23:36
Sarge - that's the point. we have this insane man in the office, and a legion of supporters behind him, who refuse to accept the fact we have a global world in every sense of the world. but not signing Kyoto, by not working within international accords, we are dooming more than our own nation...

Actually, Tree, if peak-oil theory is correct, Kyoto's economic projections and CO2/GDP ratio assumptions are wildly off the mark. I don't see how it is possible to reconcile support for Kyoto with a belief in the peak-oild theory.
 
10Madman
      ID: 572371022
      Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 23:36
Update to 9 -- unless we invent steam-powered, coal-burning cars, that is.
 
11Texas Flood
      ID: 172321910
      Sun, Mar 20, 2005, 08:52
Unless we decide to use an organic fuel like methanol.
 
12nerveclinic
      ID: 182312022
      Mon, Mar 21, 2005, 03:51
Unless there's some new fuel science that no one on this forum is even aware of because they are keeping it secret because they are becoming rich squeezing the last billions out of oil.

That's my prediction and I've believed it for a long time now.

 
13nerveclinic
      ID: 182312022
      Mon, Mar 21, 2005, 03:54
Speaking of predictions, listened to Drudge tonight and he was ranting about this latest child killer causing people to suggest we put implants in child molestors.

He also mentioned the medical implanets I've discussed here and predicted these would only be the first step.

15 years I've been waiting to hear this.

 
14Pancho Villa
      Sustainer
      ID: 533817
      Wed, Mar 30, 2005, 09:36
Thomas Friedman on Bush's Failure to Address the Energy Crisis

How will future historians explain it? How will they possibly explain why President George W. Bush decided to ignore the energy crisis staring us in the face and chose instead to spend all his electoral capital on a futile effort to undo the New Deal, by partially privatizing Social Security? We are, quite simply, witnessing one of the greatest examples of misplaced priorities in the history of the U.S. presidency.

"Ah, Friedman, but you overstate the case." No, I understate it. Look at the opportunities our country is missing - and the risks we are assuming - by having a president and vice president who refuse to lift a finger to put together a "geo-green" strategy that would marry geopolitics, energy policy and environmentalism.

Finally, by doing nothing to reduce U.S. oil consumption we are only hastening the climate change crisis, and the Bush officials who scoff at the science around this should hang their heads in shame. And it is only going to get worse the longer we do nothing. Wired magazine did an excellent piece in its April issue about hybrid cars, which get 40 to 50 miles to the gallon with very low emissions. One paragraph jumped out at me: "Right now, there are about 800 million cars in active use. By 2050, as cars become ubiquitous in China and India, it'll be 3.25 billion. That increase represents ... an almost unimaginable threat to our environment. Quadruple the cars means quadruple the carbon dioxide emissions - unless cleaner, less gas-hungry vehicles become the norm."

The country is dying to be led on this. Instead, he prefers to squander his personal energy trying to take apart the New Deal and throwing red meat to right-to-life fanatics. What a waste of a presidency. How will future historians explain it?



They will explain it thusly:

The initial strategy of the Bush administration was to secure vast oil reserves in the Middle East in Iraq and Iran, while maintaining a continuous flow from Midlle East OPEC nations, as well as Venezuela, Nigeria, Canada and several other 3rd world producers, including Equitorial Guniea, Indonesia and the former Soviet republics in the Caspian Basin.
It was appearant from the beginning of the Bush administration that the only way to secure Iraqi and Iranian oil reserves would be by military methods. Occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq would solve several problems. The isolation of Iran by having US troops on the east and west borders would force them to be amenable to the advancement of economic cooperation with the energy multi-nationals. The occupation of Iraq would void the previous regime's energy deals with France, Germany and Russia. The US would then have free reign to dominate not only the oil reserves from Iraq and Iran, but would control the passage of vital Caspian Basin energy supplies to ports on the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean.

As is the case with all empire-seeking regimes, the Bush administration made numerous errors in judgement and execution.

1. The cost of war. Not only does it cost a lot of dollars, it consumes a lot of oil.

2. The loss of world support. Begin with Europe and go from there . The Euro upstages the dollar on a daily basis as more and more economies trust the US dollar less and less.

3. The underestimation of China and India. The strategy to isolate Iran has folded mostly because of Chinese and Indian support, although Europe and Russia have failed to join the anti-Iran bandwagon as well. The rise in energy needs from exploding Chinese and Indian economies is further stressing world reserves, making Iran an important trading entity.

4. The failed CIA-backed coup against Chavez. Fearing the socialist Chavez would hinder the sweet deal the US has had with the Venezuelan version of the Saudi Royal family, they did what they've done for decades - forced a change of government to one more of their liking. Problem was, Chavez had built a popular following, regained the presidency, and now is doing all he can to cut Venezuela's dependence on US business by cutting deals elsewwhere, mostly with the Chinese.

5. We won the Cold War. Whatever. Russia more than likely has more oil reserves than any other nation in the world. Their economy is only beginning to spread its wings. Recent Russian/Chinese cooperation and diplomatic mingling, in response somewhat to US implications of global military dominance, raises the possibility of a renewed and extremely expensive arms race. There is virtually no way that the current US economy can afford continual aggessive, belligerent and arrogant claims as the world's only superpower, since it's true only in a military sense.





 
15Baldwin
      ID: 241292815
      Wed, Mar 30, 2005, 12:26
My personal theory is that they know the cost and efficiency of alternative energy will only improve with time. So they don't want the country to invest in an infrastructure prematurely. I don't spose it bother's people with oil wells to delay either of course but...
 
16Madman
      ID: 43410119
      Wed, Mar 30, 2005, 14:04
A quote from 1905: Right now, there are about 800 million horses in active use. By 2050, as horses become ubiquitous in China and India, it'll be 3.25 billion. That increase represents ... an almost unimaginable threat to our environment. Quadruple the horses means quadruple the methane emissions - unless cleaner, less food-hungry horses become the norm."
 
17Boldwin
      ID: 8347115
      Thu, Apr 14, 2005, 07:22
Experts testified that Canada now produces 1 million barrels of oil per day from tar sands, and that is expected to reach 2 million barrels a day.
According to Mark Maddox, a deputy assistant secretary for fossil energy, the Green River Formation — located where the three states come together — contains an estimated 1.8 trillion barrels of oil. It also constitutes more than 50 percent of the world's oil shale reserves, of which 80 percent are owned by the federal government.

"I find it disturbing that Utah imports oil from Canada tar sands, even though we have a larger tar sands resource within our own boundaries that remains undeveloped," Hatch said. "Why has Canada moved forward in leaps and bounds, while the United States has yet to take even a baby step in this direction?"

The amounts of oil, said Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, "are mind boggling. Who would have guessed that in just Colorado and Utah, there is more recoverable oil than in the Middle East...



... except we don't count it among our nation's oil reserves because it is not yet being developed commercially."

And therein lies the rub. The technology to recover oil from tar sands and oil shale is costly, and it just wasn't justified when oil was $30 or even $40 a barrel.

But with oil prices expected to remain above $50 a barrel ...

 
18Boldwin
      ID: 8347115
      Thu, Apr 14, 2005, 07:24
...but it's pristine sand...
 
19Madman
      ID: 43410119
      Thu, Apr 14, 2005, 08:39
BLM testimony on the subject of oil shale

A 3rd party report with some interesting history (from a couple of years ago) ...
 
20Motley Crue
      Dude
      ID: 439372011
      Thu, Apr 14, 2005, 08:56
People hate it when I say this but I think they already have this problem figured out. They are just squeezing all the money out of fossil fuels they can. Once we reach critical mass on this issue a new "suprize" fuel will appear to replace oil. ~nerve

Yes! Now there's a conspiracy theory that works, nerveclinic. I am buying into this one, because it makes a ton of sense. It's based on greed and pragmatism! I am not sure they have the entire thing worked out--we may run out of oil and still be working the kinks out on some new fuel. But I'll bet somebody knows what the next fuel will be, and the information will be forthcoming in the next decade.

Talk of living in communes with all sustenance surrounding the "neighborhood" is slightly hyperbolic. Does anyone here really believe that mankind would be willing to take a step back in civilization, because we run out of oil? Hell no! We'll find something new and the shrinking of the world will continue. Think about it--we have new technologies that are getting people around the world faster, and soon, into space. People won't be willing to give that up, just because we run out of oil. There's another way. It may not be Mr. Fusion from Doc Brown's DeLorean, but something will be found. Remember, throughout history, man has developed, invented, and evolved to meet challenges. It will happen again.

Pancho, although we don't agree on every aspect of this issue, I wanted to acknowledge your persistence in keeping it alive on this board. Most of the environmental threads get started when you want them to, and I find this topic so very interesting. Thank you.
 
21Boldwin
      ID: 8347115
      Thu, Apr 14, 2005, 11:46
That race they had in Australia a few years back sure looks like the future to me. Sleek solar power/batter racers.



Give them another 10-15 years to improve the efficiency of the batteries and the solar panels and a standard size car will be free from OPEC methinks.
 
22Motley Crue
      Dude
      ID: 439372011
      Thu, Apr 14, 2005, 12:13
Yes, they could do it in 10 years. If they start committing resources to it now. I don't think there is a big enough effort pursuing any one solution, and that needs to change.
 
23Boldwin
      ID: 8347115
      Thu, Apr 14, 2005, 12:30
There is a huge effort to improve efficiency of batteries and solar panels. You can't emphasize R&D too much for me in those departments tho.
 
24FRICK@Work
      ID: 220211
      Thu, Apr 14, 2005, 12:56
There is a lot of work being done at Colleges here in the US. There is a annual/bi-annual race in the US for groups to race their solar cars. I think the winner gets to compete in Australia. I worked with the group at my college and IIRC they changed the rules limiting spending some how. Basically it had something with the University of Michigan getting huge money from car exec alums and buying a victory. Their solar panel cost more than most of the other teams competing entire budgets.

I agree that more research needs to go into this field, but there are some physical restraints. I live in the Midwest and we don't see the sun with enough regularity during the winter for solar cars to always be practical. There is a reason that the race is held in the summer, and its not the tempeture. Actually the tempeture is a huge problem with a lot of cars overheating/drivers suffer, they have no AC and can't roll down windows due to decreasing the aerodynamic efficiency of the cars.



 
25Motley Crue
      Dude
      ID: 439372011
      Thu, Apr 14, 2005, 13:36
Well, sounds like they have more work to do then. Who wants to drive a car with good gas mileage that doesn't work October through March and has no air conditioning when it does work?
 
26Boldwin
      ID: 8347115
      Thu, Apr 14, 2005, 16:54
E f f i c i e n c y , Just give them time to get it up a bit more, put in a few more batteries. Maybe a small amount of power generation, very small clean burning engine and you will have all the speed, acceleration, air conditioning you really need.
 
27Pancho Villa
      Sustainer
      ID: 533817
      Thu, Apr 14, 2005, 18:02
Boldwin #17

Having lived in Grand Junction during the boom/bust oil shale bonanza days of the early 70s, I'm well acquainted with the possibilities of this energy source. There is enough land in these remote areas to allow for some rather large projects, while still retaining enviromental integrity. The real challenge in the area, not only with oil shale and other expansive retraction industries is the lack of water. The Green River is a tributary of the Colorado, the only river system servicing almost the entire southwest United States, one of the fastest growing areas of the world. Further degradation of this fragile system is inevitable just servicing the growing populations of Salt Lake, Las Vegas, Phoenix and Southern California, much less providing for major new water consuming industries in some of the country's most arid region.

The Connection: Water and Energy Security
 
28Boldwin
      ID: 8347115
      Thu, Apr 14, 2005, 18:10
Yeah, along the Colorado water is a close second in the crisis shortage dept. Crying shame in the tourism sense. The Grand canyon has something missing down the center.

But you don't really think we are going to leave as much oil as is in all the middle east untapped do you? Not unless God's Kingdom gets here first.
 
29Boldwin
      ID: 543312819
      Wed, Jul 13, 2005, 05:14
The Diane Rheem (sp?) Show on NPR will have a discussion on Peak Oil this morning.
 
30Madman
      ID: 43410119
      Wed, Jul 13, 2005, 09:56
James Hamilton has good stuff ... more ... more ... more ... more (fuel standards) ... more ... you get the idea.
 
31Boldwin
      ID: 543312819
      Wed, Jul 13, 2005, 10:13
NPR is discussing peak oil at this moment.
 
32nerveclinic
      ID: 3454230
      Wed, Jul 13, 2005, 10:30


Motley Yes, they could do it in 10 years. If they start committing resources to it now. I don't think there is a big enough effort pursuing any one solution, ...

That we are being told about...

 
33nerveclinic
      ID: 3454230
      Wed, Jul 13, 2005, 10:33
Motley: Now there's a conspiracy theory that works, nerveclinic. I am buying into this one, because it makes a ton of sense. It's based on greed and pragmatism!

Every conspiracy I have ever discussed is based on greed and pragmatism...you noticed of course I don't talk about little green aliens?

 
34Pancho Villa
      ID: 519522811
      Wed, Feb 08, 2006, 20:47
Representative Bartlett comments on the SOTU
 
35Myboyjack
      ID: 27651610
      Tue, Feb 14, 2006, 14:15
In a year of record oil company profits - this is great, great news.

The government may waive up to $7 billion in royalty payments from companies pumping oil and natural gas on federal territory in the next five years, the New York Times reported on Tuesday, citing administration officials and budget documents. ....

The royalty relief would amount to one of the biggest giveaways of oil and gas in U.S. history, even though the administration assumes oil prices will remain above $50 a barrel throughout that period, the Times report said.

The report cited estimates in the Interior Department's recent budget plan that would allow companies to pump about $65 billion in oil and natural gas without paying royalties.

Administration officials cited by the report said the benefit stems from regulations dating back to 1996, when energy prices were relatively low and lawmakers wanted to encourage exploration in higher cost areas such as the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
 
36biliruben
      Leader
      ID: 589301110
      Tue, Feb 14, 2006, 14:29
It's about time that oil companies started getting some love.
 
37Myboyjack
      ID: 27651610
      Tue, Feb 14, 2006, 14:33
.....would allow companies to pump about $65 billion in oil and natural gas without paying royalties.

Is there a fee if I want to camp at Yellowstone? Just wondering.
 
38Perm Dude
      Dude
      ID: 030792616
      Tue, Feb 14, 2006, 14:34
Not if you pump out oil, MBJ.
 
39sarge33rd
      ID: 2511422414
      Tue, Feb 14, 2006, 23:37
yea republicans.
 
40Myboyjack
      Dude
      ID: 014826271
      Wed, Feb 15, 2006, 06:26
the benefit stems from regulations dating back to 1996,
 
41Stuck in the 60s
      Dude
      ID: 274132811
      Wed, Feb 15, 2006, 07:46
Good grief!

You'd think the companies would volunteer to pay the royalties, just for the PR benefit involved.
Who knows, maybe it'd create a tax writeoff!

Don
 
42sarge33rd
      ID: 2511422414
      Wed, Feb 15, 2006, 08:17
I saw that MBJ. Point is, its a Rep Admin, Rep Congress and we're running nationally with an absolutely obscene deficit. Here's 7 billion income that while alone it wont make much diff to the national budget, at least makes it look good to the avg American if it is collected vs "donated" to multi-millionaires.

Then too, there is what you asked above...I can pump oil and resources out of the national park for free, but if I want to camp there without running an oil well too, I have to pay?
 
43Myboyjack
      ID: 27651610
      Wed, Feb 15, 2006, 08:50
Point is, its a Rep Admin, Rep Congress and we're running nationally with an absolutely obscene deficit.

Huh? The point is we're running a deficit now, so "Republicans" are to blame for a Democratic Adminstration's sweetheart deal with the oil companies? Uh, no.

The "deal" was made in 1996 to encourage investment - in 2006, after the investment's been made and oil's about to be delivered, well, what, exactly is it that "Republicans" should do to fix it?

The "point" is regardless of which of the two reigning parties are in power, be it the Establishment Democratic Party of the Two Coasts or the Corporate Party of Patriotic True-Blue Republican America (headquarters, Grand Cayman Islands), they both run the same game.

As long as you blame everything from lobbying scandals to voter fraud to a Democratic Administration's oil deal on Republicans and as long as you mirror image blames them all on Liberal Democrats the pussheads in Washington will merrily keep making their money and consolidating their power, content that systematic changes will never occur.
 
44Myboyjack
      ID: 27651610
      Wed, Feb 15, 2006, 08:54
In an effort to jinx it appearence, I predict an anectdote.
 
45biliruben
      ID: 531202411
      Wed, Feb 15, 2006, 09:08
exactly is it that "Republicans" should do to fix it?

Only provide subsidies when the free market no longer makes it worthwhile to explore in hard to reach areas. In other words, at the current price of oil - not now.
 
46sarge33rd
      ID: 480323118
      Wed, Feb 15, 2006, 10:07
I think all of us saw prices at the pump, shoot up after Katrina. Overnight and long before any interruption to supply occured. In areas along TX highways, prices went from $2.20 gal to $5.00 gal, with no apparent stops in between those price points. Allegations of gouging, flew about the news, but nothing much was done about it. (To my knowledge at any rate.) So what we have, is oil companies making record profits, real incomes on the decline, national deficit balloning to unprecedented levels, and here sits a 7 billion dollar give-away, that Congress has the ability to say..."You know what? This is just "wrong" on too many levels to leave alone."
 
47Myboyjack
      Dude
      ID: 014826271
      Mon, Feb 20, 2006, 18:42
Anybody know what this is about?

Saying the nation is on the verge of technological breakthroughs that would "startle" most Americans, President Bush on Monday outlined his energy proposals to help wean the country off foreign oil.....

"Our nation is on the threshold of new energy technology that I think will startle the American people," Bush said. "We're on the edge of some amazing breakthroughs - breakthroughs all aimed at enhancing our national security and our economic security and the quality of life of the folks who live here in the United States."

Later Monday, Bush visited the United Solar Ovonics Plant, which makes solar panels, in Auburn Hills, Mich., outside Detroit. "This technology right here is going to help us change the way we live in our homes," Bush told reporters.

Bush said he was impressed with the growing commercial uses of solar energy.

"Roof makers will one day be able to make a solar roof that protects you from the elements and at the same time, powers your house," Bush said. "The vision is this - that technology will become so efficient that you'll become a little power generator in your home, and if you don't use the energy you generate you'll be able to feed it back into the electricity grid."



Sounds kinda 1984ish in its attempt to build public anticipation for whatever magik is supposed to appear.

 
48Boldwin
      ID: 49626249
      Mon, Feb 20, 2006, 18:53
Why MBJ, I believe Nerve is starting to get thru to you. 8]
 
49The Treasonists
      ID: 571192610
      Mon, Feb 20, 2006, 20:36
Maybe he's trying to talk down the price of oil? With all these alleged new technological breakthroughs, there would be less reason for speculator's to bid up the price of oil. They probably need to top off the strategic reserve, too.
 
50Boldwin
      ID: 49626249
      Mon, Feb 20, 2006, 22:04
Nope, talking alternatives to oil brings down his negatives related to his oil industry background.
 
51Madman
      ID: 230542010
      Tue, Feb 21, 2006, 09:03
B 50 has it dead on. Tr 49 -- if he successfully talked down the price of oil, then he is also successfully talking down the incentives to discover new oil and/or produce alternatives. If that is his objective, it is particularly cynical.

But this reads to me as the necessary blather. The President has to feed the ignorant public some sort of hope. You either have to pass mindless and possibly damaging new legislation under the guise of progressivity, or you have to utter mindless platitudes and ephemeral visions. Al Gore promised half the federal fleet of vehicles on alternative fuels by the end of the first Clinton/Gore term. Bush is promising the hype from fuel cells. Blah, blah, blah.

Therefore, my interpretation is that this is the least-damaging method of responding to the public's demand for action.
 
52Seattle Zen
      ID: 3415339
      Tue, Apr 11, 2006, 10:53


This is an excellent movie I recently came across; it does a great job in explaining "peak oil" and its implications.
 
53Tree
      ID: 1411442914
      Fri, Apr 28, 2006, 11:09
Bush wants authority to set fuel standards for cars

"I encourage them to give me that authority," Bush told reporters during a visit to a service station in Biloxi, Mississippi. "It's an authority I used for light trucks, and I intend to use it wisely if Congress will give me that authority."

as this point, i wouldn't give Bush the authority to make my lunch, much less anything else.
 
54Perm Dude
      Dude
      ID: 030792616
      Fri, Apr 28, 2006, 11:43
On fuel standards, however, Bush started requiring manufacturers to have at least some milage standards when Congress refused to even include pickup trucks in any milage requirements.

I cringe when Bush says "Give me the authority" but Congress isn't doing anything on the matter (and hasn't for some time now).
 
55Madman
      ID: 230542010
      Fri, Apr 28, 2006, 12:42
Tree 53 -- Tree and I agree. The world is coming to an end.

I see no reason why I should give the President to restrict my options for automobile purchase. Maybe I want a big honking SUV to take a couple of weekend camping trips. Because gasoline is expensive, I decide to compensate for the cost of those trips by riding my bike. And carrying it in my SUV if it breaks down.

Why should I be required to buy a "fuel-efficient" (wink, wink, nod, nod) SUV if my main goal is to give myself transportation options rather than guzzling fuel?

Why should we give any single President the authority to restrict me freedoms in this fashion?

backgrounder links ... oil is oil, efficiency and energy demand, Samwick .
 
56Perm Dude
      Dude
      ID: 030792616
      Fri, Apr 28, 2006, 13:43
Madman, do you believe the President's previous work in this area restricted your transportation choices?
 
57Seattle Zen
      ID: 46315247
      Fri, Apr 28, 2006, 15:33
Post 55 is a perfect example of why Libertarians are a f'ing joke and always will be. You come across as a selfish clown without a wit of humanity, Madman, not one iota. Your hypothetical is assinine as well. The vast majority of Americans WANT fuel efficiency standards.
 
58Boxman
      ID: 2630259
      Fri, Apr 28, 2006, 15:57
Officer Mith: I think we have some activity going on above in this thread. You're the policeman remember?
 
59Tree
      ID: 1411442914
      Fri, Apr 28, 2006, 17:05
hopefully when it comes to responding to the likes of you, you'll get the Dirty Harry query...
 
60Mattinglyinthehall
      ID: 428299
      Fri, Apr 28, 2006, 17:05
I don't know what "activity" you're talking about, Box.

And I also don't know why you call me "officer" and "policeman".

I know it has something to do with my calling out righty posters for never addressing any of your frequent... "mistakes". But the point of your response to that escapes me.
 
61Mattinglyinthehall
      ID: 428299
      Fri, Apr 28, 2006, 17:26
Oh I think I get it now. He wants me to smack SZ for what he believes are personal attacks in post 57.

Another one of Boxman's... "mistakes". I have most certainly not called on anyone to be the 'insult police'.

What I wrote in post 225 of that thread was, "I'll point out that the poliforum regulars on the left will typically take on liberals who aren't well enough informed to get by here."

My point was that when ignorant or poorly informed or off-the-deep-end liberals are dead wrong or offer highly flawed opinions, other members from the left side of the forum tend to address it. And I should have added that we don't have to sweeten up the criticism by prefacing it with "while I normally agree with you 99% of the time or better...", or some other slathery oversensitive nonsense.

Perhaps its because the left members of the forum are more sensitive to being grouped with the ignorant and the extremists on our side of the aisle.
 
62Madman
      ID: 114321413
      Fri, Apr 28, 2006, 20:45
Madman, do you believe the President's previous work in this area restricted your transportation choices? Obviously not yet, since they haven't affected MY2006, at least that I know of. But yes, these sorts of decisions will affect my set of possible purchasing decisions into the future. Notably, of course, they fail to address the real problem, which is the consumption of oil.

The vast majority of Americans WANT fuel efficiency standards.

The vast majority of Americans also WANT medical marijuana to be illegal.

How exactly is majority opinion particularly enlightening here? And if so many people really wanted these standards, why do they buy the fuel-guzzling SUVs in the first place?

I would, instead, argue that they are beginning to quit buying the fuel-guzzling SUVs and are beginning to buy other vehicles. As such, the light-truck CAFE standards are simultaneously less important and more popular.

Once the majority decides they don't particularly want or need a product, they are much more inclined to ban others from purchasing that product. That tendency is a natural one: the desire to force others to conform to your lifestyle choices. But the fact that it is natural doesn't make it right. You of all people should know that.
 
63Perm Dude
      Dude
      ID: 030792616
      Fri, Apr 28, 2006, 21:26
So you're against this because at some unspecified future period your consumer choices might be limited in some (again, unspecified) way?

I'm going to just say, without specifying why, that you're wrong to think that it really matters.
 
64Pancho Villa
      ID: 519522811
      Fri, Apr 28, 2006, 21:52
why do they buy the fuel-guzzling SUVs in the first place?

Because Peak Oil has been treated the same way that you treat global warming and global overpopulation, as junk science or wild speculation, even though Peak Oil is grounded in more solid models than the others, though they are all related.

Peak Oil is not a partisan isssue, as the thread title proves. Even Bush has subtly indicated that our addiction to oil is leading us down a dead end road that could have devastaing consequences.

While global warming and global population have too many variables to extract anything close to definitve models, that is not the case with oil.


Curiously, though, I agree with Madman that the answer is not in govermnet restrictions. The answer is in properly informing the public of the reality, something in which the the government and the media have failed miserably so far.

The real debate is whether it's by design.
 
65SFH
      Donor
      ID: 570112522
      Sat, Apr 29, 2006, 10:51
I'm not sure if any of you have seen this but Butanol makes an interesting argument as an alternative energy source. Is there somethin I am missing here? Its green, it can immediatly replace gasoline, and its created from renewable resources. I'm not as well versed as the rest of you on this topic, so I'd like to hear your thoughts.
 
66Madman
      ID: 114321413
      Sat, Apr 29, 2006, 15:33
you're wrong to think that it really matters. Since when are my freedoms dependent on what "really matters"? I'm never going to smoke marijuana, but I'm going to fight for my right to smoke it. Purchase of cheaper or safer automobiles is hardly an abstraction. Distracting us from the real issue -- oil consumption -- is also a real cost since it takes us away from what's important.

PV 64 -- While global warming and global population have too many variables to extract anything close to definitve models, that is not the case with oil. I will just add, as you may already know, that global climate change predictions are predicated upon models of peak oil production. This reinforces your point about the uncertainty, at least to some extent, since any uncertainty about an input generally translates into uncertainty in modeling. Of course, the flip side is that if oil production does NOT peak out in the middle of the century or earlier, we could exceed the already high CO2 predictions.

SFH -- I don't know much about that specific technology. Sounds like it is still not cost-effective vis a vis gasoline, although the gap has closed. $3.70 per gallon, with production costs that will likely escalate with higher fuel input costs.

But there are dozens upon dozens of entrepreneurs working on similar tasks. We will have options. Maybe that's one.
 
67Perm Dude
      Dude
      ID: 030792616
      Sat, Apr 29, 2006, 16:11
Heh heh. You've turned liberal on us, Madman. Now an abstract restriction of possible future choices by nominal changes in fuel efficiency (for a non-renewable energy source) is infringing upon you your "freedom." Nice. See you at the rally, dude.
 
68Boxman
      ID: 29322295
      Sat, Apr 29, 2006, 17:02
SFH: The main inhibitor to any alternate fuel switch is the supply chain. Butanol sounds promising, but add that to a list of alternate fuels that sound promising.

I've often wondered if a switch is even worth it until we have some deeply profound technological innovation to replace the internal combustion engine itself.

The costs of changing the supply chain, coupled with relying on faith of suppliers/vendors and initiative by auto makers makes alternate fuel an unlikely prospect. I think you'll see a replacement to the internal combustion engine as a viable alternative before a serious, cheaper, and more efficient fuel for current engines becomes mainstream.

The cure could be worse than the disease. If we wind up switching off of oil, but the replacement is just as much, if not more than gasoline, what is the point exactly? The environmentalists will harp about the environment, but in all reality that is not what is driving this change.

Will a viable alternative to the internal combustion engine exist within the next decade?
 
69Boxman
      ID: 29322295
      Sat, Apr 29, 2006, 17:08
Here's what I mean when I say that a new engine entirely is needed and not a new fuel so to speak.

Alternative energy: evaluating our options

"Furthermore, not all energy thus produced is equal. The energy content of a gallon of diesel fuel is (roughly) 139,000 Btu, the energy derived from a gallon of gasoline is (roughly) 124,000 Btu, and the energy in a gallon of ethanol is (roughly) 80,000 Btu. Can you guess which fuel will give us the best vehicle mileage? If we can get 50,000 Btu from 10 pounds of dry wood, 104,000 Btu from 10 pounds of high quality coal, or 139,000 Btu from 1 gallon of heating oil, which fuel would the consumer prefer to use for heat?"
 
70Stuck in the 60s
      Dude
      ID: 274132811
      Sat, Apr 29, 2006, 17:46
Bill Maher had a great line on Real Time last night.

"The Republicans are divided about the high price of oil. Half of them are annoyed, the other half are masturbating."

Don
 
71Madman
      ID: 114321413
      Sat, Apr 29, 2006, 18:15
PD 67 -- call it liberal, libertarian, or conservative. I don't believe I've changed. I've always fought for our economic freedom. Obviously not very well.
 
72Perm Dude
      Dude
      ID: 030792616
      Sat, Apr 29, 2006, 18:24
You're not actually fighting for "freedom." You're fighting for "sameness." In fact, you're fighting against your having as your choices cars with higher milage.
 
73Madman
      ID: 114321413
      Sat, Apr 29, 2006, 18:41
You're fighting for "sameness." How do added restrictions on production, size-weight-mileage formulas, etc., increase the diversity of my choices?

In fact, you're fighting against your having as your choices cars with higher milage. The Honda Civic Hybrid we purchased would have been built without CAFE standards. I have every faith that increasing gas prices -- or even just gas price volatility -- will drive people to reoptimize their behavior in whatever way that fits their personal needs. I see no reason for government to dictate for today and tomorrow what the form of those needs are.

Further, government dictating reductions in safety technology, decreased costs to urban sprawl, etc., specifics of engine design in an environment of dynamic discovery and re-evaluation of our energy needs and delivery system -- seems like dubious policy.
 
74Perm Dude
      Dude
      ID: 030792616
      Sat, Apr 29, 2006, 20:05
There's no reason to believe any hybrid would have been built, and sold, without massive government intervention. You yourself cited the tax break as a consideration in buying your car, and the milage benefit the car companies receive are a major reason for them to make the car.

 
75Madman
      ID: 114321413
      Sat, Apr 29, 2006, 22:26
PD 74 -- the Honda Civic Hybrid IMA engine was in prototype in the late 1990s, with a target release in the US market in 2002-2003. Honda has traditionally exceeded CAFE fleet standards by several MPG; unlike some American manufacturers that use high efficiency models to offset lower efficiency models in the remainder of their fleet, Honda's sales have always been centered in the smaller and more efficient portions of their relevant markets.

I got a whopping $2000 deduction, IIRC, (as opposed to the incentives today which are credits), something that Honda didn't know would be on the table when they brought their car to market. Unless you are arguing that there is a virtue in a company being able to buy off Congress (i.e., so they'll know that they can get an incentive passed years into the future), I don't get your point. It is very doubtful that the piddly US tax incentive that existed when I bought a hybrid factored into Honda's decision.

Lastly, the creation of loopholes in CAFE for alternative fuel vehicles is, I believe, I new phenomenon. From what I know, CAFE standards didn't change for 20 years prior to Bush tinkering with them.
 
76Madman
      ID: 114321413
      Sat, Apr 29, 2006, 22:35
Data showing that Honda has historically and regularly blown away CAFE standard minimums. I'm not sure whether the hybrids are imports or domestics, but as a general rule, as you can see in the tables, ever since 1989, Honda has been 4-6 MPG above the CAFE minimum.

They have never been fined for failing to reach compliance.

HEV were ruled to be "gasoline powered" vehicles, so the CAFE incentives didn't apply to them. Not that Honda needed them, of course.
 
77Madman
      ID: 114321413
      Sat, Apr 29, 2006, 22:38
Triple post lastly, I need to retract the last sentence in 75. It only applies to "hybrids". Natural gas, ethanol, etc., technologies do qualify as alternative fuel vehicles for which there are indeed credits.

The government appears to have picked wrong. Can you believe we paid and are paying extra money so we could / can make cars that run on natural gas?
 
78Perm Dude
      Dude
      ID: 030792616
      Sat, Apr 29, 2006, 23:10
We're still paying for Star Wars, so no, I'm not surprised that the government has, in effect, invested in useless technology.
 
79sarge33rd
      ID: 2511422414
      Sun, Apr 30, 2006, 00:34
Some SUV buyers, buy them because they have a legitimate need for it. Towing boats, horse trailers, campers etc. These are common applications for which no hybrid technology currently in production, can succeed. Then too, you have the families with 4+ kids. A Honda Civic, simply wont hold the family. It isnt large enough. So while I applaud Honda (and Toyota and Ford) for their work in Hybrid technology, I dont look for that to be the "cure all" by any stretch. The product simply fails to fulfill the needs of too many..
 
80Tree
      ID: 93192914
      Sun, Apr 30, 2006, 00:38
everytime i see a Hummer driving through midtown or barrelling through the mean streets of long island, i always think to myself "man, i sure am glad that that soccer moms now have a vehicle that lets them haul all that timber, concrete, and coal."
 
81sarge33rd
      ID: 2511422414
      Sun, Apr 30, 2006, 09:09
roflmao..agreed Tree. The Hummer (in its civilian form) is the ultimate "look what I can afford" showboat vehicle.
 
82Seattle Zen
      ID: 46315247
      Sun, Apr 30, 2006, 18:12

 
83sarge33rd
      ID: 2511422414
      Sun, Apr 30, 2006, 19:01
Simple logic dictates, that when we as a species remove millions of barrels of commodity "X" from the environment on a daily basis, we will eventually exhaust the supply of commodity "X". With consumption increasing year in and year out, there can only be one outcome. The need for an alternative is undeniable. The timeline, is open to question. But why is it that politicos, always appear to feel that the time is never now?
 
84Seattle Zen
      ID: 46315247
      Sun, Apr 30, 2006, 19:25
We've played this song before. It was the late 70's and we had grown lazy on cheap gas. OPEC wises up and shocks the American consumer with a startling increase in the price of oil. US car manufacturers were making the cars that the marketplace was demanding, huge vehicles with enormous horsepower engines, none of which got 20 MPG. Japanese cars flooded the shores, those embarrasingly small and underpowered jokes of the early 70's started to look pretty appealing.

I was a young kid back then with a interest in cars. What I remember about the marketing for cars back then was the onslaught of "35/28 MPG Hwy/City" "45/37," etc... that the Civic, Mazda GLC, Datsun 210 boasted. American manufacturers were left flat footed.

We are right back where we were in 1978. GM and Ford only make trucks and SUVs that are competetive in this market. Had we learned a lesson 30 years ago and insisted that US manufacturers provide low emission, extremely high fuel economy autos and trucks of all sizes, our country would be prepared to answer this looming disaster. Does anyone here think that GM won't go through bankruptcy in the next three years? The company will survive but billions of dollars will be lost by creditors, union contract workers and US taxpayers because bankruptcy laws are a form of government subsidy. So I don't want to hear that government CAFE standards, emission standards, and others are too much an imposition upon them.

I'd also like to see more public/private R&D money spent on fuel technology, safety improvements, efficiency with the resulting technology shared amongst all the national companies. I don't tout myself to any more than a the average American when it comes to this topic, but I hate car companies and the lack of governmental rules that have forced us into this corner.
 
85sarge33rd
      ID: 2511422414
      Sun, Apr 30, 2006, 20:56
manufacturers, of any product, are only going to manufacture what their marketing studies say we will buy. Ford has been built, upon the backs of the work truck and hvy dty SUV. What gets my goat, is how Hyundai (a joke of a car when it first hit the market), can now top Edmunds.com ratings in customer satisfaction, product reliability and product value. Stems from a case study they (Hyundai) commissioned circa 2001, re the success of Honda/Toyota, and a total revamping of their production/supply chain to mirror.
 
86FRICK
      Donor
      ID: 3410101718
      Sun, Apr 30, 2006, 22:46
What don't you like about Hyundai Sarge? My wife and I owned a Sante Fe for awhile and while were happy with it. It didn't have the quality of build or materials as a Honda or Toyota, but was quite a bit cheaper.

Hearing people complain about oil prices cracks me up. I pulled up to a stoplight this afternoon and there were 3 "cars" in the left lane. A Dodge Durango, GMC Envoy and a Nissan Armada. With a total of 5 people in them. All three of which probably don't average 20 mpg with a decent tailwind.

 
87sarge33rd
      ID: 2511422414
      Sun, Apr 30, 2006, 23:21
I didnt like Hyundai, cheap pieces of crap 6 or 7 years ago. Now however, they are dollar for dollar, probably one of THE best buys out there. Last month edmunds.com reviewed and compared Sonata vs Camry vs Accord. Sonata came out on top.
 
88Madman
      ID: 230542010
      Mon, May 01, 2006, 08:42
Had we learned a lesson 30 years ago and insisted that US manufacturers provide low emission, extremely high fuel economy autos and trucks of all sizes, our country would be prepared to answer this looming disaster.

Either that, or GM would have gone bankrupt 15 years ago.
 
89Frick@Work
      Donor
      ID: 3410101718
      Mon, May 01, 2006, 09:00
I was just curious, post 185 made it seemed like you still didn't like Hyundai. I still don't feel that the quality is as good on a Hyundai vs a Honda or Toyota, but the cost does make a tough decision.

I saw an interesting quote in Autoweek this weekend. GM is "merging" the Opel and Saturn models to increase efficiency. One of the comments was that the Saturn SUV wouldn't go to Europe (to big/bad gas mileage). Ok I can see that is probably a smart decision. The second part of the comment was that the 2 smallest Opel models wouldn't make it across the pond because they were to small. WFT? As gas prices continue to climb, you don't want to give customers a choice for a smaller car? The Mini Cooper or Honda Fit are both slightly larger than a Opel Meriva, but apparently American consumers don't want a small efficient car. Does this sound vaguely familiar to any other time in American Auto history?

 
90Boldwin
      ID: 189102715
      Mon, Nov 27, 2006, 19:34
CSP - Concentrated Solar Power

Currently price competitive with fossil fuels. Does not rely on unproven techology.
 
91Tree
      ID: 2110172721
      Mon, Nov 27, 2006, 22:23
and now, a song for Baldwin.

Welcome back, your dreams were your ticket out.
Welcome back to that same old place that you laughed about.
Well the names have all changed since you hung around,
But those dreams have remained and they’re turned around.

Who’d have thought they’d lead ya (Who’d have thought they’d lead ya)
Back here where we need ya (Here where we need ya)

Yeah we tease him a lot cause we’ve got him on the spot,
Welcome back, welcome back, welcome back, welcome back.
 
92walk
      Dude
      ID: 32928238
      Wed, Nov 29, 2006, 17:13
Seems like the right thread to include this tidbit. Yesterday, Al Gore gave an abbreviated (75-minute) version of his "Inconvenient Truth" movie live at our company. Every once in a while, we get outside speakers to give these talks, and our CEO is also aligned, politically, with Gore and the Democratic party. I must say, although I am also aligned politically here, both with the party and the with the global warming view, that the talk was very compelling. First, Gore was very articulate, passionate and not at all boring. He went through the slides very quickly, but without any notes whatsoever. This is content he knows, and knows well. He was a great speaker...I wish he would have been as charismatic when he campaigned in 2000 (amongst other things).

He had many new slides with 2006 dates, that were not in the film. So, it was updated to some degree. The talk was fast-paced, and the slides are very compelling and easy to read/absorb. I cannot comment on the scientific validity of the presentation, but do remember reading an article in the NYTimes a few months back that said that the scientific community was pretty much in agreement about the validity of the research conducted as the foundation for the film.

It is disturbing stuff.

And it was a special treat to see this film, done live. Unfortunately, many folks who wanted to see the event could not, as invitations were done via lottery. So, 400 folks saw the talk, and 600 more (on a first come/first serve basis) saw it on broadcast live on TV screens in two other auditoriums. I was also pleased that it was held during "work hours" (4pm-5pm). On the other hand, I had the evening "nanny-relief shift," and had to bolt during the Q&A. At the beginning, Gore did make a couple of cracks about not being President, and during the talk, also some comments about how our government is not doing enough to lead against global warming (e.g. not ratifying the Kyoto accords).

- walk
 
93Perm Dude
      ID: 41051159
      Mon, Jan 15, 2007, 14:13
Following up on MBJ's #35:

Officials covered up oil lease problems

Not only did Administration officials not collect the small amount of royalties mandated and go out of their way to harass Clinton carry-over officials who wanted to actually apply the lease contracts, but they covered up the fact that the government lost billions.

Nice.
 
94Boxman
      ID: 337352111
      Tue, Mar 04, 2008, 13:18
From the WSJ.

The World Has Plenty of Oil
By NANSEN G. SALERI
March 4, 2008; Page A17

Many energy analysts view the ongoing waltz of crude prices with the mystical $100 mark -- notwithstanding the dollar's anemia -- as another sign of the beginning of the end for the oil era. "[A]t the furthest out, it will be a crisis in 2008 to 2012," declares Matthew Simmons, the most vocal voice among the "neo-peak-oil" club. Tempering this pessimism only slightly is the viewpoint gaining ground among many industry leaders, who argue that daily production by 2030 of 100 million barrels will be difficult.

In fact, we are nowhere close to reaching a peak in global oil supplies.

Given a set of assumptions, forecasting the peak-oil-point -- defined as the onset of global production decline -- is a relatively trivial problem. Four primary factors will pinpoint its exact timing. The trivial becomes far more complex because the four factors -- resources in place (how many barrels initially underground), recovery efficiency (what percentage is ultimately recoverable), rate of consumption, and state of depletion at peak (how empty is the global tank when decline kicks in) -- are inherently uncertain.

- What are the global resources in place? Estimates vary. But approximately six to eight trillion barrels each for conventional and unconventional oil resources (shale oil, tar sands, extra heavy oil) represent probable figures -- inclusive of future discoveries. As a matter of context, the globe has consumed only one out of a grand total of 12 to 16 trillion barrels underground.

- What percentage of global resources is ultimately recoverable? The industry recovers an average of only one out of three barrels of conventional resources underground and considerably less for the unconventional.

This benchmark, established over the past century, is poised to change upward. Modern science and unfolding technologies will, in all likelihood, double recovery efficiencies. Even a 10% gain in extraction efficiency on a global scale will unlock 1.2 to 1.6 trillion barrels of extra resources -- an additional 50-year supply at current consumption rates.

The impact of modern oil extraction techniques is already evident across the globe. Abqaiq and Ghawar, two of the flagship oil fields of Saudi Arabia, are well on their way to recover at least two out of three barrels underground -- in the process raising recovery expectations for the remainder of the Kingdom's oil assets, which account for one quarter of world reserves.

Are the lessons and successes of Ghawar transferable to the countless struggling fields around the world -- most conspicuously in Venezuela, Mexico, Iran or the former Soviet Union -- where irreversible declines in production are mistakenly accepted as the norm and in fact fuel the "neo-peak-oil" alarmism? The answer is a definitive yes.

Hundred-dollar oil will provide a clear incentive for reinvigorating fields and unlocking extra barrels through the use of new technologies. The consequences for emerging oil-rich regions such as Iraq can be far more rewarding. By 2040 the country's production and reserves might potentially rival those of Saudi Arabia.

Paradoxically, high crude prices may temporarily mask the inefficiencies of others, which may still remain profitable despite continuing to use 1960-vintage production methods. But modernism will inevitably prevail: The national oil companies that hold over 90% of the earth's conventional oil endowment will be pressed to adopt new and better technologies.

- What will be the average rate of crude consumption between now and peak oil? Current daily global consumption stands around 86 million barrels, with projected annual increases ranging from 0% to 2% depending on various economic outlooks. Thus average consumption levels ranging from 90 to 110 million barrels represent a reasonable bracket. Any economic slowdown -- as intimated by the recent tremors in the global equity markets -- will favor the lower end of this spectrum.

This is not to suggest that global supply capacity will grow steadily unimpeded by bottlenecks -- manpower, access, resource nationalism, legacy issues, logistical constraints, etc. -- within the energy equation. However, near-term obstacles do not determine the global supply ceiling at 2030 or 2050. Market forces, given the benefit of time and the burgeoning mobility of technology and innovation across borders, will tame transitional obstacles.

- When will peak oil arrive? This widely accepted tipping point -- 50% of ultimately recoverable resources consumed -- is largely a tribute to King Hubbert, a distinguished Shell geologist who predicted the peak oil point for the U.S. lower 48 states. While his timing was very good (he forecast 1968 versus 1970 in fact), he underestimated peak daily production (9.5 million barrels actual versus eight million estimated).

But modern extraction methods will undoubtedly stretch Hubbert's "50% assumption," which was based on Sputnik-era technologies. Even a modest shift -- to 55% of recoverable resources consumed -- will delay the onset by 20-25 years.

Where do reasonable assumptions surrounding peak oil lead us? My view, subjective and imprecise, points to a period between 2045 and 2067 as the most likely outcome.

Cambridge Energy Associates forecasts the global daily liquids production to rise to 115 million barrels by 2017 versus 86 million at present. Instead of a sharp peak per Hubbert's model, an undulating, multi-decade long plateau production era sets in -- i.e., no sudden-death ending.

The world is not running out of oil anytime soon. A gradual transitioning on the global scale away from a fossil-based energy system may in fact happen during the 21st century. The root causes, however, will most likely have less to do with lack of supplies and far more with superior alternatives. The overused observation that "the Stone Age did not end due to a lack of stones" may in fact find its match.

The solutions to global energy needs require an intelligent integration of environmental, geopolitical and technical perspectives each with its own subsets of complexity. On one of these -- the oil supply component -- the news is positive. Sufficient liquid crude supplies do exist to sustain production rates at or near 100 million barrels per day almost to the end of this century.

Technology matters. The benefits of scientific advancement observable in the production of better mobile phones, TVs and life-extending pharmaceuticals will not, somehow, bypass the extraction of usable oil resources. To argue otherwise distracts from a focused debate on what the correct energy-policy priorities should be, both for the United States and the world community at large.

Mr. Saleri, president and CEO of Quantum Reservoir Impact in Houston, was formerly head of reservoir management for Saudi Aramco.
 
95nerveclinic
      ID: 105222
      Tue, Mar 04, 2008, 14:09

Mr. Saleri's article seems to leave out a number of details.

While new technologies will allow us to extract greater amounts of oil from the ground then in the past, but it will come at a great cost.

Part of the measure of peak oil is how easily (and therefore cheaply) it can be extracted from the ground.

Why get excited about an extra trillion barrels if it costs $200 a barrel end cost to extract instead of $100? Yes maybe it's possible to extract it, but if the cost becomes greater then the value of the end product vis a vis how it effects the economy, is it really that exciting?

So yes we will be able to get more then before from a field, but it will take very specialized, very expensive equipment. It will take going deeper and deeper into the ocean. (An expensive environment to drill in)

The article above goes against the vast majority of the worlds oil experts, including Charlie Maxwell as recently as two weeks ago. (In polls taken by Institutional Investor magazine, Mr. Maxwell has been ranked by the US financial institutions as the No. 1 oil analyst for the years 1972, 1974, 1977 and 1981-1986. In addition, for the last 17 years he has been an active member of an Oxford-based organization comprised of OPEC and other industry executives from 30 countries who meet twice a year to discuss trends within the energy industry.)

Charlie is predicting a real pressure point in world supply around 2015. He is optimistic that the pain caused by this shortage will finally cause the world to take drastic measures to conserve.

I would say the giddy optimism in the article above is leaving many points about what the cost of these new technologies would be. Also, yes, maybe we've "only" burned through a trillion gallons, but that was before China 1 billion + population and India 1 billion + population became power houses. The dynamics have changed. Look what is happening at this moment to the price of oil and food because of he growth of China and India.

So not only will it be harder, and more expensive to get more oil, there is a growing demand because of the huge emerging markets.

 
96Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Thu, Jun 19, 2008, 03:54
This story is bubbling up and bound to influence the election. If it has been covered elsewhere, my apologies. If not then amazing it hasn't.
The survey found 67 percent of voters support drilling for oil off American coasts, and 64 percent believe it at least somewhat likely drilling will lead to lower prices at the pump.

The survey was conducted before presumptive Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain proposed lifting the federal ban on offshore drilling that covers roughly 80 percent of U.S. coastal waters.

The federal moratorium that bans exploration for offshore oil deposits was passed in 1981 but has frequently been challenged in Congress. Last year in the Senate, Sen. Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, voted against lifting the ban, arguing it was only a short-term solution to America's oil and gas woes. Democratic leaders and many environmental organizations have consistently favored leaving the ban in place.

American opinion, however, appears to be solidifying – across the political spectrum – in favor of drilling. According to the survey, 85 percent of Republicans, 57 percent of Democrats and 60 percent of unaffiliated voters all favor offshore drilling. Even among self-described liberals, 46 percent favored drilling, while 37 percent were opposed.

 
97Tree
      ID: 25536195
      Thu, Jun 19, 2008, 06:44
what post 96 shows is that the American public, by and large, isn't educated on the subject on off shore drilling.

while it sure seems to make sense that more oil = less prices, the reality, just isn't that simple...

on a related note, it sure is some convenient timing that Charlie Crist, a long-time opponent of off shore drilling, picks now to change his mind...

vying for that VP slot much?
 
98Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Thu, Jun 19, 2008, 10:10
What post #97 demmonstrates is that Tree hasn't got a clue how the futures market influences pricing.

In fact the price went down today at the pump. I suspect that looking back we will see a plateau in prices just from McCain's position flip.
 
99Tree
      ID: 3533298
      Thu, Jun 19, 2008, 10:21
price didn't go down at any of the pumps on the way to the office.

but even so, at this point, what's a nickel? i don't need my gas to drop by 5 cents. i need it to drop by a couple bucks.
 
100Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Thu, Jun 19, 2008, 11:27
I need it to stop going up ten cents a week.
 
101Perm Dude
      ID: 195231910
      Thu, Jun 19, 2008, 11:34
Iraqi oil: Sold in a series of no-bid contracts to western companies

And so the rape continues. One silver lining of the high gas prices should have been that a place like Iraq, which needs infusions of money to rebuild infrastructure, would get it. But no:

Imagine. At the precise moment when demand for oil was the highest in history, a recently democratized country with enormous reserves had the chance to sell extraction contracts to the highest bidder. This was a country that desperately needed the revenue to help rebuild its schools, power grid and water supply after a long internal conflict. So why did it hand out the contracts with no auction at all?
 
102biliruben
      ID: 52561217
      Thu, Jun 19, 2008, 14:20
Man.

Even I didn't think they would be this brazen, and I was not one that was screaming "no war for oil!", but jeez. This puts the lie to that.
 
103Razor
      ID: 4532926
      Thu, Jun 19, 2008, 15:16
What post #97 demmonstrates is that Tree hasn't got a clue how the futures market influences pricing.

Do you really think opening oil reserves that won't be live for ten years will have a significant impact on gasoline prices today?
 
104sarge33rd
      ID: 99331714
      Thu, Jun 19, 2008, 18:30
Golly, gas is $4.00/gal now. You know, thats almost precisely what I paid for it in Germany in 1976. For some reason, 30 years later and virtually the exact same price, doesnt strike me as terrible. What IS terrible, is the no-bod contracts, the gouging of the taxpayer and the ever present 'good ole boy network' surrounding GWB getting a free pass, yet again.
 
105Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Thu, Jun 19, 2008, 21:43
Do you really think opening oil reserves that won't be live for ten years will have a significant impact on gasoline prices today? - Razor

Absolutely. Any president that promises to make America energy independent with the sincerity Kennedy pursued the moon, will overnight effect the price of oil. That is what the futures market does. Allow suppliers to lock in cheap prices based on favorable news and to sell commodities and sell them cheaper today instead of waiting for a higher price tomorrow.

Further when the ANWR debate first opened more than 10 years ago the cry from Razor's was 'it wouldn't come online for 10 years. I guess it was idiotic to listen to you guys then judging by the predicament today. I'll want more gas and refineries and nuke plants ten years from now also.
 
106Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Fri, Jun 20, 2008, 06:49
What IS terrible, is the no-bod contracts, the gouging of the taxpayer and the ever present 'good ole boy network' surrounding GWB getting a free pass, yet again.

I see your sabbatical hasn't cured your knowledge of the facts. $4 occured as a national average under a Democratic Congress. How could that happen?
 
107nerveclinic
      ID: 5047110
      Fri, Jun 20, 2008, 15:04

I was not one that was screaming "no war for oil!", but jeez.

Um what did you think the war was for? WMD? 8-}

 
108Perm Dude
      ID: 155392010
      Fri, Jun 20, 2008, 15:18
I thought the war was to stop the sight of the most powerful man in the world going to the Saudis every few years asking them, pretty please, to increase production because the US has the oil addition bad, man. Got it bad.

So I guess it really was about oil. Wonder how much our military is using being there?

 
109nerveclinic
      ID: 5047110
      Fri, Jun 20, 2008, 15:22


Absolutely. Any president that promises to make America energy independent with the sincerity Kennedy pursued the moon, will overnight effect the price of oil. That is what the futures market does. Allow suppliers to lock in cheap prices based on favorable news and to sell commodities and sell them cheaper today instead of waiting for a higher price tomorrow.

I have to agree here. If the next President (It won't be the oil companies pimp W), comes out and says that's it, the lines drawn in the sand tomorrow this is what we are going to start.

A) 100 new Nuclear Power Plants.

B) drilling in Anwar

C) Off shore drilling

D) raise MPG by 1/2-1 gallon per year.

The shorts would cover so fast it would make your head spin and we'd be looking at 70 bucks a barrel in a matter of weeks.

Will it happen? Only if we don't elect someone's boy...oh wait, we always elect someone's boy.

The wacky "conspiracy theorists" all said when Bush was elected he'd be in the oil companies pockets and the oil companies will get rich. Google a chart of the price of oil and see what it's done since 2000.

It's right in front of your face.

By the way we've had 104 nuclear plants operating here since the 1970's. France runs almost all their electricity on nuclear power.

What about the dangers of nuclear power?

What about the danger of coal pollution, air pollution, wars fought for diminishing oil supplies?

Peak oil is not as bad as it now seems, it's only if we don't act and make major changes.











 
110Perm Dude
      ID: 155392010
      Fri, Jun 20, 2008, 15:38
I agree with you, nerve & Boldwin. The price of oil is like stock prices: Driven as much by supply and demand as perceptions about the future, including rumors.
 
111Razor
      ID: 4532926
      Fri, Jun 20, 2008, 15:44
Talking about knocking down a strawman. Read carefully, people: Boldwin claimed gasoline prices fell because McCain, a Presidential nominee, wants to drill offshore. Gasoline, not oil. A Presidential nominee, not a sitting President who isn't a lame duck.

It's funny how when new oil drilling is talked about, 10 years is right around the corner, but when developing technology for renewable fuels, 10 years is an eternity. Increasing the supply and decreasing the demand will have the same result when it comes to energy price speculation.
 
112nerveclinic
      ID: 5047110
      Fri, Jun 20, 2008, 23:40


A Presidential nominee, not a sitting President who isn't a lame duck.

Maybe you don't read the news much, the sitting President, Bush, also suggested off shore drilling last week also. Fair enough that Baldwin should have used that in his analysis? We also had the Saudis claiming they would increase oil production by 1,000,000 barrels a day.

Presidential candidates making policy statements do have an effect on speculation though. For instance, health care stocks have been flat to poor the last year, during a time, economic uncertainty, when they usually do well.

The reason why? Most educated guesses are that investors are waiting to see what happens with national health care based on who wins and how it will effect certain companies.

 
113nerveclinic
      ID: 5047110
      Fri, Jun 20, 2008, 23:43


The shorts would cover so fast it would make your head spin

Duh I should of said "longs" would cover.

 
114astade
      ID: 1533770
      Fri, Jun 20, 2008, 23:54
Razor,

While you might be comparing two types of energy sources, I believe that you are comparing apples and oranges when discussing the market forces involved.

Oil is a commodity that is highly traded and influenced by geopolitics. The futures market has a huge hand in dictating current pricing.

Renewable energy/technology is still in it's infancy because it's use isn't as well-defined/global. R&D is still the primary way to gauge success. Now emissions credits (like the EU) are another story and are going to allow renewable energy to be traded similarly in an indirect manner...but that's a separate discussion.
 
115Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Sat, Jun 21, 2008, 07:15
I think emissions credits are a valid point astade. Have you ever heard of the CCX?

When the day comes that we're using a lot of renewable sources will we be exchanging oil speculators for carbon credit speculators?
 
116Seward Norse
      ID: 58082219
      Sat, Jun 21, 2008, 09:28
I don't understand why McCain wants offshore drilling with giving Florida veto rights, but not drilling in ANWR giving Alaskans veto rights. I wish we could get him to actually visit the place and find out for himself what it's like. Either that, or let the native Alaskans(whose land it really is) decide. By the way, I DO know why this is the case. Florida matters politically, Alaska doesn't.
 
117Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Sat, Jun 21, 2008, 09:57
I don't understand why McCain wants offshore drilling with giving Florida veto rights, but not drilling in ANWR giving Alaskans veto rights.

Are these veto rights on individual projects or the concept entirely? A link would be great.
 
118Seward Norse
      ID: 58082219
      Sat, Jun 21, 2008, 10:11
Here you go...

Linky thing not working, so http://www.miamiherald.com/news/florida/story/572679.html

 
119Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Sat, Jun 21, 2008, 10:57
Thanks.

McCain has me scratching my head on this one. ANWR is pristine so we shouldn't touch it? What qualifies an area as "pristine" to McCain? Why Alaska and not Florida?

You're right Seward. This is grasping for electorates.

I think this just shows that McCain is an electorate whore who knows he's got a fight on his hands this election year.
 
120Pancho Villa
      ID: 47161721
      Sat, Jun 21, 2008, 11:56
let the native Alaskans(whose land it really is) decide.

Using that line of thinking, the Seminoles should decide the fate of drilling in Florida and the Utes should decide the fate of oil shale production in the Rockies.

Additionally, ANWR wasn't set aside as a place where humans could visit to decide if they prefer to vacation there or Hawaii. It was set aside as the name implies, as a wildlife refuge.

But I wouldn't worry too much. There will be drilling in ANWR, because we will have no other choice. Simple mathematics tells us that global demand, lacking a viable economic alternative, will necessitate that all global discoveries of easily accessed crude be exploited. The same math dictated that $4 gallon gas was not only likely, but a certainty. Boxman's #94, The World Has Plenty of Oil(written by an oil executive who at least has the honesty to admit that My view, subjective and imprecise) is a flawed title, since the author makes no such claim. Though he tends to paint a rosy picture, he admits that Peak Oil is a reality(points to a period between 2045 and 2067 as the most likely outcome),
and as Nerve points out in #95, objective scientists who don't work for oil companies and aren't invested in retaining and growing consumption levels, are quick to dispute Saleri's math.

The much maligned Jimmy Carter warned us of an energy crisis 30 years ago. Successive administrations either ignored or denied the need to modernize our oil-based economy. Now we have inappropriately named conservatives claiming the world has plenty of oil. We have inappropriately named conservatives like Mike Gallagher:

Republicans like me who believe in drilling in just about every square inch of our country so that we don't have to pay 10 dollars a gallon some day

Gallagher will get his wish, since we didn't heed Carter 30 years ago, and even the most optomistic of prognosticators believe Peak Oil is about 30 years away.

It will be curious to see how conservatives react to the question of eminent domain and private property rights the first time a nice oil field is discovered on a large ranch or farm. Will they abandon their principles so that the Monster Truck Show coming to town will have all they need?
 
121Seward Norse
      ID: 58082219
      Sat, Jun 21, 2008, 12:05
If the Seminoles and Utes were the only ones within hundreds of miles I'd tend to agree. Why should Washington DC decide this?
 
122Perm Dude
      ID: 75122111
      Sat, Jun 21, 2008, 12:12
Because we are talking about federal land.

 
123Seward Norse
      ID: 58082219
      Sat, Jun 21, 2008, 12:22
If I buy a piece of land 30 years ago. Don't come back to it. Don't check up on it. Who's going to know the conditions of my land better. Me, or the guy who lives next door?
 
124Perm Dude
      ID: 75122111
      Sat, Jun 21, 2008, 12:26
That's a moot point. Nosy neighbors might know more about my land than I do, but it doesn't mean that they can approve drilling on it.
 
125Seward Norse
      ID: 58082219
      Sat, Jun 21, 2008, 12:37
Maybe after so many years we should reevaluate whether it should really be federal land. Or, we could just continue to ignore it...
 
126Perm Dude
      ID: 75122111
      Sat, Jun 21, 2008, 12:49
I'd be all for re-evaluating. After we've kicked our oil habit.

:)
 
127Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Sat, Jun 21, 2008, 13:35
Guys, this kind of partisan arguing is what has kept us as basically energy slaves to the loonies in the Middle East. Sometimes in our country there are issues that transcend Republican/Democrat, Red/Blue, Black/White. Things like 9/11, World War II, stuff like that. I see our energy crisis as the same thing on that level.

A Republican that is against funding alternative sources is just as complicit in our slavery to the Middle East as a Democrat who is against new drilling and exploration.

I'm more interested in how we are going to liberate ourselves from those loons.
 
128Perm Dude
      ID: 75122111
      Sat, Jun 21, 2008, 13:40
Freedom from our slavery isn't going to happen by drilling for more oil, Boxman. This is like needing rent money so we're going to check the couch cushions.

We do need a massive alternative energy committment, IMO. Bush's agreement to allow homeowners to have tax writeoffs for alternative energy systems is a good start.
 
129Razor
      ID: 17521223
      Sat, Jun 21, 2008, 15:25
Maybe you don't read the news much, the sitting President, Bush, also suggested off shore drilling last week also. Fair enough that Baldwin should have used that in his analysis?

Boldwin specifically cited McCain, but besides that, Bush is a lame duck. But that's all beside the point. Neither's comments on offshore drilling had an effect on the price of gasoline. Too little oil, too far out and with too little definitiveness to it.

While you might be comparing two types of energy sources, I believe that you are comparing apples and oranges when discussing the market forces involved.

Oil and renewable energy are competing commodities, and thus, the markets are linked. Oil might be a more mature commodity, but we're talking about events that won't result in an increase in supply for a decade. Technological advances that allow renewable energy sources to become more viable will have an effect on oil prices down the road in the same way that the discovery of new oil reserves will.
 
130Building 7
      ID: 174591519
      Sat, Jun 21, 2008, 15:56
The state should have the veto power before their land becomes federal land. It was their land and their residents land before they joined the union. Unless it was for eminant domain under the old definition, it belongs to the states.
 
131astade
      ID: 1533770
      Sat, Jun 21, 2008, 16:17
Razor,

I would recommend that you do some reading on the subject.

I specifically chose an international publication, but there is so much out there that demonstrates that Oil is a commodity in every sense of the word. 'Technological advances' are not a commodity.
 
132Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Sat, Jun 21, 2008, 16:34
Alaskans are overwhelmingly in favor of developing ANWR. What is all this talk of veto?

A point we keep overlooking is that half the rise IMO in the price of oil is due to the plumetting dollar and not supply/demand. Also it's not so much supply running out as new consumers [China and India first and foremost] driving up demand. I'd love to find a more precise estimate than that ballpark figure.
 
133nerveclinic
      ID: 5047110
      Sat, Jun 21, 2008, 17:10


A point we keep overlooking is that half the rise IMO in the price of oil is due to the plumetting dollar and not supply/demand.

Baldwin that's just not correct,it's a lot less then half. Yes it's part of the reason but not as much as you imply.

For instance there's been a dramatic rise in the price of oil in the last few months during a period when the dollar value has been either flat or even strengthening.

Countries that have seen their currencies rise dramatically against the dollar are still feeling the dramatic rise in the price of oil.

In addition to the supply demand, and speculative reasons, it's simply getting more expensive to drill for a barrel of oil.

I'm watching virtually everyday though for the golden moment to short oil, it's coming, it will be big, and it will be a beautiful thing.




 
134Ann Coultre
      ID: 47161721
      Sat, Jun 21, 2008, 20:59
Also it's not so much supply running out as new consumers [China and India first and foremost] driving up demand.

How dare those Chinks and subocontinent darkies make claims on our oil? Rickshaws and elephants don't need oil, but Ford F-150s and Winnebagos do.

These people have short memories. Have they forgotten in India that Britain gave them their freedom, and that the United States saved China from the Imperial Japanese? And this is how they repay us, by demanding our oil?

Tell you what, after we nuke Tehran and take over the Iranian oil fields, we'll consider selling you some of our oil, that is if we don't decide to nuke you as well. After all, China is full of commies and India is full of Hindus and Muslims. It's not like we're talking about real people here. Even the Mexicans and Africans have oil, so you rank somewhere beneath them on the
"You talkin to me" scale.

When you can start producing blonde people capable of ruling all they survey, then there's a slight chance we can do business beyond call centers and cheap appliances.

In the meantime, keep your grubby hands off our oil. Now I gotta go. I'm speaking at a post-NASCAR gala and they're serving moo goo gai pan and chicken tandoor. My favorites!

Copyright 2008 Ann Coultre
Distributed by Is Anyone Really Buying This Act Syndicate
666 Colossal Mansion That Could House a Family of 25 But Only Room For Single Middle-Aged Childless Biatch Skank Place
Soros City, Florida 00001





 
135Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Sun, Jun 22, 2008, 10:39
You really have no clue what your political opposition thinks, PV.

If you kid yourself that anyone who disagree's with you does so for those reasons how do you know if your beliefs are proof against the real positions of your opposition?
 
136nerveclinic
      ID: 5047110
      Sun, Jun 22, 2008, 16:20


Pancho honestly I'm still trying to understand where post 134 is coming from.

I mean the post you are making light of "it's not so much supply running out as new consumers [China and India first and foremost] driving up demand." is a legitimate point and someone who loves the Chinese and Indians could make it as easily as a racist.

What crawled up your shorts today?


 
137Pancho Villa
      ID: 47161721
      Sun, Jun 22, 2008, 19:46
You really have no clue what your political opposition thinks, PV.

I know that you not only tolerate mean-spirited
political satire, you encourage it. Why should my stab at satire be taken as anything other than an entertaining attempt at widening the political divide?

It's especially ironic that you state anyone who disagree's with you does so for those reasons how do you know if your beliefs are proof against the real positions of your opposition?

since it's impossible to know what Ann Coulter really believes. But there are clues. Andrew Sullivan puts it this way in his critique of Ann's book, "Liberals Are Traitors:"

In [Ann] Coulter's world, there are two types of people: conservatives and liberals. These aren't groups of people with competing ideas. They are the repositories of good and evil. There are no distinctions among conservatives or among liberals. To admit the complexity of political discourse would immediately require Coulter to think, explain, argue. But why bother when you can earn millions insulting?

Now, before you dismiss Sullivan as a puppet of the liberal attack dogs, further down in his critique he states:

She is absolutely right to insist that many on the Left are in denial about some Americans' complicity in Soviet evil, the guilt of true traitors like Alger Hiss or the Rosenbergs, who helped Stalin and his heirs in their murderous pursuits. And part of the frustration of reading Coulter is that her basic causes are the right ones: the American media truly is biased to the left; some liberals and Democrats were bona fide traitors during the Cold War; many on the far left today are essentially anti-American and hope for the defeat of their country in foreign wars

link

When do we know when Ann is just using reckless hyperbole, or when she's putting forth rhetoric she actually believes?

When speaking about Muslims after 9/11 she wrote:

We should invade their countries, kill their leaders and convert them to Christianity. We weren't punctilious about locating and punishing only Hitler and his top officers. We carpet-bombed German cities; we killed civilians. That's war. And this is war.
[Town Hall, September 14, 2001]


Did she really believe that? After all she did attempt to qualify it:

Coulter says her line about "convert them to Christianity" has been misconstrued and was aimed at those celebrating the attacks. "I wasn't talking about Muslims generally," she says. "I was talking about the crazed homicidal maniacs dancing in the streets."
[The Washington Post, October 2, 2001]


When she called for the carpet bombing of Afghanistan after 9/11, it sure sounds like she was talking about Muslims generally. When she applauds the carpet bombing of Germany in WW2 and relates it to Afghanistan( We carpet-bombed German cities; we killed civilians. That's war. And this is war.) it sure sounds like she means Muslims generally. Now, anytime you have such disregard for a civilian population, I think it's fair to say you don't regard them as real people. India has the second largest Muslim population of any country in the world.

Is it such a longshot that someone who compares Katie Coruric to Eva Braun and calls John Edwards a faggott would not want for the Chinese to evolve beyond rickshaws or the Indians riding elephants as their main modes of transportation?

Does Ann really believe in bombing Iran, because it would be good for Wall Street? On the same show she says,
"I remember the day we went into Iraq, the stock market really rallied!"

Does Ann really believe New Yorkers would surrender to terrorists?

and on...and on..Why is it a shock to be disrespectful of Ann Coulter when her entire schtick revolves around disrespect?

Bottom line is I don't care what Ann Coulter really thinks, and neither do a lot of conservatives(Those would be RINOs and CINOs to you.

So let's just end this post with a good old All American mean-spirited political video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-Ou63Yki5M

(caution: language may be offensive)





 
138Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Mon, Jun 23, 2008, 04:57
PV

Neither my comments nor Ann's should have given you leave to call us racists or to propose that we would begrudge any paying customer their oil.

Drill in ANWR and pipe it/sell it directly to China for all I care. I really mean that. For the billionth time, oil is fungible.

If you are against drilling in ANWR you are the one begrudging paying customers their oil.
 
139Pancho Villa
      ID: 47161721
      Mon, Jun 23, 2008, 08:46
Ann Coulter has publicly referred to Arabs as "ragheads," and called for us to bomb their cities, kill their leaders and convert them to Christianity. Most rational people would equate that with racism.

Drill in ANWR and pipe it/sell it directly to China for all I care.

That separates you from the huge majority of your conservative brethren who want increased domestic oil production as a remedy to reliance on Middle Eastern supplies.
 
140azdbacker
      ID: 475452317
      Mon, Jun 23, 2008, 23:21
Ann Coulter has publicly referred to Arabs as "ragheads," and called for us to bomb their cities, kill their leaders and convert them to Christianity. Most rational people would equate that with racism.

Coulter's comments you reference were very clearly about Muslims, not Arabs. Which makes them very clearly not racist. I find it rather compassionate that she favors saving Muslims from eternal death. Sometimes I just want us to turn the whole place to sand.

As Frank J. at IMAO wrote today, "I want an America with foreign policy like the Incredible Hulk: You make us angry, we smash the crap out of everything."
 
141biliruben
      ID: 4911361723
      Mon, Jun 23, 2008, 23:25
Talk to Napoleon, Hitler, Caesar, Genghis Khan, Stalin, Alexander and all the other leaders who thought that was a productive way to make the world a better place.
 
142azdbacker
      ID: 475452317
      Mon, Jun 23, 2008, 23:29
It worked well for Truman.
 
143biliruben
      ID: 4911361723
      Mon, Jun 23, 2008, 23:32
Depending on who you talk to, Truman either gave half the world away with spineless indecision or showed so much distrust, Bushian diplomatic skills, and lack of understanding for Uncle Joe that he started a 50 year war.
 
144azdbacker
      ID: 475452317
      Mon, Jun 23, 2008, 23:35
I meant the bombs.

Japan has been pretty polite to us ever since.
 
145biliruben
      ID: 4911361723
      Mon, Jun 23, 2008, 23:38
Truman ain't no Napoleon. The biography I read left me thinking he was man of normal intelligence and drive, with insecurity issues, thrust into a situation for which he wasn't quite up to the task.
 
146Perm Dude
      ID: 420241913
      Mon, Jun 23, 2008, 23:38
America should be a beacon of hope, not a beacon of bullying behavior.

Sadly, this Administration is so clueless about how to play well with others we'll have some time before we can repair the damage to America that they have done.

I don't really care about what "Frank J" wants. What I want is an America that people don't look fearfully at. What I want is an America which is attractive.

As for Coulter, as with all Coulter apologists you are severely undermined by her own comments. Here's a tip, adz: Stop trying to apologize or explain Coulter. She will always make you look stupid for doing so, because she isn't interested in being in that reasonable place you want her to be in.
 
147Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Mon, Jun 23, 2008, 23:43
That separates you from the huge majority of your conservative brethren who want increased domestic oil production as a remedy to reliance on Middle Eastern supplies. - PV

Drilling for more oil domestically would remedy reliance on mideastern oil. Remember Bush holding hands with the 'house of Saud' begging for the spigot to be opened further?

The world's oil supply is fungible and as long as the entire supply entering the market easily meets the entire demand no one gets held up at the pump.
 
148Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Mon, Jun 23, 2008, 23:44
Ann needs no apology.
 
149azdbacker
      ID: 475452317
      Mon, Jun 23, 2008, 23:51
PD - substitute the word 'Muslim' for 'Arab' and I agree with every point she made in that video clip in #146. In fact, I watched it live and remember being pretty amused. Her point was that people like Alan Colmes are more worried about the words a meaningless talking head like Ann Coulter uses than they are about an entire region of the world that wants to kill us.
 
150Pancho Villa
      ID: 47161721
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 00:17
an entire region of the world that wants to kill us.

You must be awfully upset about the Bush administration sending billions in cash and weapons to Pakistan, Egypt, the Saudis and Turkey. Funny Ann never mentions that.
Funny peculiar, not funny ha ha, that is.


 
151Perm Dude
      ID: 30518231
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 00:28
#149: Your point in #140: Coulter's comments you reference were very clearly about Muslims, not Arabs.

This is clearly false. Saying that if Coulter had said something different you would agree with it is beside the point.

Words have meaning. Trying to take Colmes to task for asking Coulter to own up to her own words is merely trying to change your target because Coulter decided to say something you couldn't agree with.

And to say that "an entire region of the world wants to kill us" reflects an inability (or unwillingness--take your pick) to even think about what is actually happening in the Middle East. I can see why Coulter seems to reasonable to you, given your comments.
 
152azdbacker
      ID: 475452317
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 00:58
#150 - I am. I'm upset every time our government takes from Americans to give to any government, except in extreme cases for charitable reasons or to fight against a mutual enemy. There is very little that pleases me about the Bush administration. I'm a conservative far before I'm a Republican.

PD - you are missing the point of what I'm saying. Maybe Coulter has a tendency to substitute Arabs for Muslims, but since she says we ought to convert them, she obviously doesn't mean Arabs (of which many are Christian). So, in context, she clearly meant Muslims.

To say that an entire region of the world wants to kill us very accurately reflects the way that the world currently is. I'm sorry if you have an inability or unwillingness to tolerate that observation. I can see why Colmes seems so reasonable to you, given your comments.
 
153Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 05:49
an entire region of the world that wants to kill us

Now there is a generalization that is not worth a damn.
 
154Tree
      ID: 10532245
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 07:01
Maybe Coulter has a tendency to substitute Arabs for Muslims, but since she says we ought to convert them, she obviously doesn't mean Arabs (of which many are Christian). So, in context, she clearly meant Muslims.

Coulter is a writer. and one well-learned in what her audience wants, as she knows exactly what to give them.

her usage of Arab for Muslim is not an accident.
 
155Razor
      ID: 4532926
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 08:52
There are many Christian Arabs? Define many.

Half a billion people in the Middle East want to kill us? That's funny. That must be the Keystone Cops of murderers to be so inefficient at it.

I suggest you get out of the States a little before making such a grotesque generalization.
 
156nerveclinic
      ID: 5047110
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 13:33

Azdbacker et al. Are you under the impression that all Muslims are our enemy? Are you under the impression that they all hate us? Are you under the impression they all fit neatly in that category?

I live in the Middle East. I've met Iraqis, Iranians, Bahrainies, Lebanese, Emeraties etc.

If your view of the world is defined by the lead paragraph above well...I'd like to give an intelligent, well articulated rebuttal but the first thing that pops into my head is you have your head so far up your ass it will never be possible to pull it out.

There are many Muslims who are as scared of the anti American religious zealots as we are. There are Iranians living in Dubai because they want a "western" lifestyle and they hate their government. There are Muslims who literally went to war by our side during the first Persian Gulf war.

There are Muslims who find out I am an American and can't wait to tell me how much they want freedom, they hate the zealots, they hate the right wing religious freaks. They love American movies, and music.

You have no Fricking clue but you are licking up the Coulter propaganda like a good little punk.

Of course there are Muslims that hate us, they hate fellow Muslims that listen to our music and watch our movies and wear our clothes.

You and Ann Coulter just put them all in one box because you believe the propaganda that's being fed to you but I'm telling you right now YOU HAVEN'T GOT A CLUE.

Why do I even waste my breath on children.

and this To say that an entire region of the world wants to kill us very accurately reflects the way that the world currently is.

is honestly one of the most misinformed, redneck simpleton comments I have ever read in my life. You have ABSOLUTELY no idea what you are talking about. Maybe you think you do but trust me you just rolled off a turnip truck and you obviously smacked your head really good on the landing.



 
157azdbacker
      ID: 475452317
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 13:48
I'm pretty sure most Japanese people in WWII wished us no harm as well, but their leaders did and that's what matters.

It's all well and good to say that many Muslims don't believe the clear teachings of the Koran or its advocates in the political world, but that ignores the truth of what those advocates teach, which is the extinction of those who don't agree with said book. You miss the point, nerveclinic, in not realizing that the dangerous teachings of the Muslim holy book are problem, as are its adherents.
 
158Tree
      ID: 3533298
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 13:54
I'm pretty sure most Japanese people in WWII wished us no harm as well, but their leaders did and that's what matters.

so you advocate the fact that many japanese americans were put into internment camps? i mean, because, it's not what they did, but what leaders of a nation an ocean away did.

You miss the point, nerveclinic, in not realizing that the dangerous teachings of the Muslim holy book are problem, as are its adherents.

quite honestly, no more dangerous than, say, the New Testament, or the Old Testament, as each book pretty much says its belief system is the one true way.

it's how you interpret it, and we've got plenty of folks in prison for interpreting the good ol' Christian bible in an evil way.
 
159Perm Dude
      ID: 33540241
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 14:00
You think Islam is a war-like religion, adz? That the "peaceniks" among the Muslims are actually ignoring their religion?

What would Jesus think of war-like Christians? Kettle, meet pot.
 
160Razor
      ID: 4532926
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 14:00
azdbacker has chosen the Boldwin path, I see, of accusing Islam of wishing the destruction of the rest of humanity. Again, we're talking about billions of people here. We'd have perpetual world war for the rest of time if that were actually the case. My guess is that, like Boldwin, you have had extremely limited interactions with the people you demonize.
 
161azdbacker
      ID: 475452317
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 14:14
so you advocate the fact that many japanese americans were put into internment camps? i mean, because, it's not what they did, but what leaders of a nation an ocean away did.

I don't advocate Americans of any kind being put in internment camps. I don't know what I said that would make you think I did. I've never advocated that Muslim-Americans be placed in internment camps. Individual people, once outside the political representation of their ideological brethren and in a free society, are generally too lazy to go around killing everyone who disagrees with them.

quite honestly, no more dangerous than, say, the New Testament, or the Old Testament, as each book pretty much says its belief system is the one true way.

Old Testament teaching was based on birth. The children of Israel were God's chosen and they were mostly expected to leave other people alone, unless provoked.

New Testament teaching is that Jesus Christ is the only way to God, and that believers are supposed to teach people the truth that Jesus was the son of God. For example, nowhere did it advocate that Christians retaliate forcefully against the Judeans during their time of persecution.

The Koran specifically implores its followers, repeatedly, to attempt to convert other religions and kill them if they won't. I'd say that's pretty significantly more dangerous.

As a Christian, accurately reading the teachings of the Bible, I am supposed to love you even though you don't accept Christ. Which is fine by me, maybe someday you will, but it's your choice either way.

As a Muslim, accurately reading the Koran, I am supposed to kill you if you won't convert. And possibly rape your wife and son or daughter. Mohammed seemed to waver on that one, depending on how inadequate he was feeling at the time about attempting to re-create Judaism without having an accurate knowledge of it.

Seriously, read the book before you make a ridiculous statement like that. Extreme Muslims are only practicing what their holy book teaches repeatedly. I'm not talking about a rare incident that can be explained away. I'm talking repeatedly.
 
162Perm Dude
      ID: 33540241
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 14:17
adz, don't take this the wrong way, but I wouldn't want you to speak for me as a Christian. I think you are even farther away from speaking on behalf of Muslims. Your position is even loonier than the President's.

With all due respect.
 
163azdbacker
      ID: 475452317
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 14:20
PD - #159 - big difference between defensive and offensive wars. Not to mention I don't advocate religion in government.

Razor - #160 - I don't demonize people. As I person who tries to adhere to the teachings of my book, I am justifiably concerned about those who adhere to the teachings of the Koran.

Tree said it's how you interpret it, and we've got plenty of folks in prison for interpreting the good ol' Christian bible in an evil way.

This is true. But you can't find one word in the New Testament advocating violence against anyone. So it's pretty easy to say they've misinterpreted it. You find instructions and orders all over the Koran about killing people who disagree with them.
 
164azdbacker
      ID: 475452317
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 14:26
#162 - Perm Dude - I don't take that the wrong way, other than the loony part. Which position disturbs you, the "I am supposed to love you even though you don't accept Christ" one?

Either way, you make my point. I don't want government speaking for me as a Christian either.

And the name is azd. With all due respect.
 
165nerveclinic
      ID: 5047110
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 15:46

Azd

I've lived surrounded by Muslims the last 2 years.

I buy food from them. I drink (Alcohol)with them. I sell stuff to them. I ride in their cabs.

I talk to them A Lot. I talk about politics.

You are stereotyping in the same way I would stereo type if I said all Christians think the earth is flat because it's in the bible.(Which it is) Or if I said all Christians want to kill everyone else in the world because they are all heretics. Or if I said all Christians believe we should sacrifice lambs because it's in the bible.

I will take it at face value you really are this naive but let me set you straight. Just as Christians don't take every word in the bible as the absolute truth, there are many, many Muslims who also take the Koran with a grain of salt. Then there are more who may believe it, but understand it's not their place to dictate what others believe.

There is also another subset who don't buy it hook line and sinker but play along...how do I know? They tell me.

There are also reformists, mostly those who have a decent education who don't buy it at all.

For you to talk about MUSLIMS like they are one big group who all believe the same thing shows a belief system I will chalk up to ignorance.

If you think even the Saudi's buy it hook line and sinker, come visit Bahrain with me on a Thursday night and watch the THOUSANDS upon THOUSANDS of Saudi men streaming over the border to screw Russian hookers. Is that in the Koran? It's like a parking lot in Bahrain on Thursday night's and it's all horny Saudi's.

Your view of the world is childish, naive and dangerous.




 
166azdbacker
      ID: 475452317
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 16:01
As I said, "I'm pretty sure most Japanese people in WWII wished us no harm as well, but their leaders did and that's what matters."

So your "kumbaya, we're all people inside" crap was as unnecessary as it was irrelevant. I also know that the overall behavior of Japan towards this country improved greatly when they realized we might randomly decide to obliterate them at the drop of a hat. It's not an option that should be completely ignored or taken lightly. I don't disagree with you on any point about individual people. We are talking politics, however, and in that realm I must go by the actions and words of their leadership.

Or if I said all Christians want to kill everyone else in the world because they are all heretics.

That might be an argument, if you could use my book to make a case for doing so that wouldn't make you sound like a moron to anyone who's read the Bible.

I could make the case on that Muslims want to kill everyone else in the world because they're heretics based on their book, and a sizable portion of Muslims would agree with me. That's a pretty significant point of difference between the two religions.
 
167Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 16:18
My guess is that, like Boldwin, you have had extremely limited interactions with the people you demonize. - Razor to AZD

My guess is you haven't digested exactly what muslims are ordered to do in the Koran.

Granted they aren't all committed to carrying those orders out if left to their own devices but when their leaders order them to under threat of death I expect they will....
 
168Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 16:24
Nerve re:#165

You do know that muslims doing virtually anything you listed would be fortunate to get off with only 100 lashes if they were in Saudi Arabia. Don't you go generalizing too far from what you see in a very atypical Dubai.
 
169Tree
      ID: 3533298
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 16:59
I don't advocate Americans of any kind being put in internment camps. I don't know what I said that would make you think I did. I've never advocated that Muslim-Americans be placed in internment camps.

the following makes me think you'd have no problem with it:
It's all well and good to say that many Muslims don't believe the clear teachings of the Koran or its advocates in the political world, but that ignores the truth of what those advocates teach, which is the extinction of those who don't agree with said book.

so now Muslims in the U.S. are less likely to be involved in trying to get rid of those "who don't agree with said book", even though they follow the same book?

you're not making much sense here. you make a blanket statement about Muslims, then retract that statement if it pertains to Muslim-americans?
 
170azdbacker
      ID: 475452317
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 17:19
so now Muslims in the U.S. are less likely to be involved in trying to get rid of those "who don't agree with said book", even though they follow the same book?

Absent the political advocates and political power to back up those beliefs, generally I'd say yes.
 
171Pancho Villa
      ID: 47161721
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 17:24
How fortunate for readers of this board to have azdbacker and Baldwin, noted Islamic scholars, enlighten us as to the nuances of Islam.

This saves me the time of having to visit their main sources of reference, ihatemuslims.com and any number of Ann Coulter videos on UTube. It's important to get an objective overview on ragheads and camel jockeys rather than the Muslim lovefest put forward by nerveclinic. Imagine a guy who lives in the Middle East who works with Muslims, socializes with Muslims and deals with Muslims on an everyday basis thinking he has any credibility on the subject.

I'm especially interested in the similiarities between Ahmadinejad and Coulter. Ahmadinejad wants to annihilate Israel. Coulter wants to annihilate Iran...and Syria...and Jordan...and Lebanon...and Saudi Arabia...and Yemen..and the United Arab Emirates...and Egypt...and Turkey...and Azerbaijan...and Turkmenistan...and Uzbekistan...and India...and Venezuela...and Cuba...and Nicaragua..and Equador...and China...and Russia...and North Korea...and most every country in Africa. The only countries she doesn't want to annihilate are those in the British Commonwealth(except maybe Canada) and the Cayman Islands.

I received similiar enlightenment about Mormons when Romney was a presidential candidate. Despite having lived among Mormons for 22 years, I had no idea how horrible, wicked and weird they are until I read the responses in Townhall following every article about Romney.

Turns out fewer Americans would vote for a Mormon for president than a Muslim, and even fewer would vote for Duncan Hunter.
 
172azdbacker
      ID: 475452317
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 17:32
How fortunate for readers of this board to have azdbacker and Baldwin, noted Islamic scholars, enlighten us as to the nuances of Islam.

Perhaps not noted Islamic scholars, but we can read and at least I have actually bothered to take the time to do so with respect to the Koran. It really doesn't take any more than that to ascertain what the book says.
 
173Razor
      ID: 545172413
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 17:40
How is that your interpretation of the Koran is starkly different than every Muslim I know along with billions of Muslims the world over?
 
174nerveclinic
      ID: 5047110
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 17:41

You do know that muslims doing virtually anything you listed would be fortunate to get off with only 100 lashes if they were in Saudi Arabia. Don't you go generalizing too far from what you see in a very atypical Dubai.

Please Baldwin, don't patronize me, of course we all know how draconian the Saudi, Iranian and Kuwait official line are.

That's not to say they are the be all and end all of the Muslim world. Nor is it to say it's not laced with hypocrisy.

Sure Dubai is the opposite end of the spectrum, but there is much that goes on in between.

Even using your example of Saudi. Rumors abound that you can get booze, even if Muslim, through underground channels... I've heard this from Muslims.

As I alluded to earlier, if you want to see how transparent these strict Muslim adherents from Saudi are, drop into Bahrain any weekend and watch them line up in hotels filled with Russian, Chinese and Thai prostitutes.

But wait Baldwin, how can that be? They are so devout, and it's not Dubai Muslims. Surely the Saudis, who are such strict Muslims wouldn't have sex outside of marriage? Not every weekend, not in long lines clogging the streets of Bahrain? Surely the Bahrain taxi drivers who explained what all the traffic was were delusional.

The border guards know where these boys are going, the Saudi government knows, the moral crusaders know...everyone knows.

Why don't they stop them?

How is it possible that thousands of Saudis fly into Dubai every weekend to party at nightclubs and bang hookers?

They take off their traditional dress mid flight and change into Armani. They buy tables at nightclubs with bottles of Jack Daniels. How is this possible Baldwin, this doesn't fit neatly into your simple world view that it's only Dubai Muslims who like to get their groove on. These are Saudis after all Baldwin and as you've assured us they are different, it's only Dubai Muslims who enjoy vice.

Even in Iran, where they are arresting women for improper dress, drug use is rampant.

It's not "just Dubai" Baldwin, it's just that Dubai is at the leading edge to opening up what is happening but kept hidden.

It's like saying "oh there's no prostitution in America, there couldn't be because it's illegal". Did you know Baldwin it's illegal to sell crack in America? Seriously they will throw you in jail for it...but somehow it still goes on.

Naive view of the world and how it works. actually childlike in your naivete.





 
175azdbacker
      ID: 475452317
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 17:57
How is that your interpretation of the Koran is starkly different than every Muslim I know along with billions of Muslims the world over?

Perhaps they are lying to you and plan on consenting to your murder after they take over America.

I do know many people who call themselves Christians but don't read the Bible. Perhaps some Muslims don't read the Koran.

More likely they know exactly what their book says, don't agree with it or are too lazy to do the jihad-ing themselves, and therefore say it teaches warm and fuzzy things that sound kinda Christian-like to make themselves feel better.

Meanwhile, nerveclinic is still babbling about people not strictly adhering to the text of the Koran. No kidding. I understand that full well. What is childish is nerveclinic sticking his fingers in his ears and saying "I can't hear you" over and over while adding irrelevant and unnecessary stories of real-world Muslims. Nothing you've said has countered anything Baldwin or I have said.
 
176biliruben
      ID: 52561217
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 18:05
We've been through this discussion before, AZD, and though I'm not religious scholar, I seem to recall that it pretty much ended in a stalemate surrounding the definition of the word Jihad in the Koran. As I recall, the most likely interpretation was a nuanced one meaning a struggle with belief in God's teaching within one's self, or something to that effect. Obviously you don't agree with that interpretation. Personally, I don't have the knowledge or desire to weigh in on the debate. If you do, please present your evidence for a bloodier definition.
 
177Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 18:46
Nerve Nerve Nerve.

I can tell you exactly how cruising for immoral sex inside Saudi Arabia works. The women in their veils go cruising in their limos and pick up the men of their choice for the night.

Dude, I read. I read monumental volumes of info.

I also read what the Koran says in clear unmistakable language about murder, genocide, rape and pillage being religious devout acts.
 
178biliruben
      ID: 52561217
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 18:55
One thread discussing Jihad as a place to start.
 
179biliruben
      ID: 52561217
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 18:56
I didn't realize you read Arabic, Baldwin. I will defer to your scholarly exploits.
 
180Pancho Villa
      ID: 47161721
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 20:06
The person you guys worship(Baldwin at least) as a political analyst calls Muslims ragheads and camel jockeys(Yuk, Yuk..prejudice is so cool) and then you expect me to belive you don't have a jaded outlook?

Perhaps they are lying to you and plan on consenting to your murder after they take over America.

Take over America? Are you high? They can't even take over Syria(the Muslim Brotherhood is banned there). Did it ever occur to you that an entity taking over America would have to be incredibly organized and disciplined? Think the Chinese.

My 10 year old son asked me a few weeks ago if Obama is a Muslim. I said no. Then he asked me what's a Muslim. I told him it's a religion that is dominant in the Middle East, North Africa and large parts of Central Asia and the Asian sub-continent.

What do you guys tell your kids when they ask you "What's a Muslim?"
Do you tell them that Muslims are people who want to kill you and take over America so it's important that you kill them first?

And then you want to preach to me about "good families?"







 
181Razor
      ID: 475342117
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 20:10
Perhaps Baldwin will enlighten us of the source of his knowledge so that we can evaluate the quality of his research? azdbacker, too? You also both owe us an explanation as to how after 1,300 years of Islam, so few Muslims, relatively, interpret their holy book they way you two do in your cursory readings of other people's interpretations of the Koran.
 
182Tree
      ID: 415132419
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 20:29
My 10 year old son asked me a few weeks ago if Obama is a Muslim. I said no. Then he asked me what's a Muslim. I told him it's a religion that is dominant in the Middle East, North Africa and large parts of Central Asia and the Asian sub-continent.

What do you guys tell your kids when they ask you "What's a Muslim?"
Do you tell them that Muslims are people who want to kill you and take over America so it's important that you kill them first?

And then you want to preach to me about "good families?"


wow. this exchange floored me. because, i fear you're right that's exactly how i see some people here explaining Muslims to their kids.

really scary. and sad.
 
183azdbacker
      ID: 475452317
      Tue, Jun 24, 2008, 23:20
What do you guys tell your kids when they ask you "What's a Muslim?"
Do you tell them that Muslims are people who want to kill you and take over America so it's important that you kill them first?And then you want to preach to me about "good families?"


I've never ripped any of you about your personal lives, and I've made a number of pretty complimentary posts about you in particular, Pancho. So I'm a little floored at both the disturbing assumptions you make and the need to make it personal.

I've got to go now. I'm taking my 3-year-old daughter out to this park in the local predominantly Muslim community a few miles from my condo. She enjoys taking the veils away from the little girls and talking back to the little boys. Kids that age are so cute.
 
184Pancho Villa
      ID: 47161721
      Wed, Jun 25, 2008, 01:50
I'm a little floored at both the disturbing assumptions you make and the need to make it personal.

You may view it as a personal attack, but I view my disturbing assumptions as legitimate given your stated positions.

Perhaps they are lying to you and plan on consenting to your murder after they take over America.

an entire region of the world that wants to kill us

Sometimes I just want us to turn the whole place to sand.


I didn't put those words in your mouth. If you're going to make such provocative statements, you should be prepared to defend them.

If you're so obsessed and paranoid about Muslims that you concern yourself with their taking over America, is it not out of the question that you would translate those beliefs to your children?

And, again the question is,

"Should we teach our kids to call Muslims ragheads and camel jockeys? Should we indoctrinate our kids with ideas that all Muslims want to kill us and take over our country?"

Or,

Should we attempt to foster better relations and understanding with Muslims, without coddling them? Should we teach our kids that there are Muslims that mean us harm, and their beliefs are at odds with the freedoms that we enjoy as Americans?

I think these are important distinctions to discuss. Islam is prepared for a reformation, but the radical elements are doing all they can to keep that from happening. So ask yourself,
which segment of Islam is better served by threats and insults? Which segment of Islam is better served when powerful and vocal elements in this country constantly claim we're at war with Islam?

At the same time, we should limit Muslim immigration to a trickle and make certain their communities in this country respect our laws, not Sharia. We should identify the domestic terrorists through legal means, then arrest, prosecute, imprison and, if proven guilty of certain crimes, executed. We should maintain a military presence in the Persian Gulf. We should foster economic cooperation and champion civil rights while respecting sovereignty.

Now you can wrap this all up as a personal attack, if you like, but it's more an attack on the modern conservative, which is constantly demanding adherence to radical positions, the probable result being fewer conservatives and more libertarians.






 
185azdbacker
      ID: 5530253
      Wed, Jun 25, 2008, 05:34
Perhaps they are lying to you and plan on consenting to your murder after they take over America.

That was a mildly amusing comment based on Razor's question about the Muslims he's talked to. We're allowed to have a sense of humor here, right? It was also a reference to Paul/Saul of Tarsus, of Bible fame, consenting to the death of Christians at one time in his life.

Sometimes I just want us to turn the whole place to sand.

Those are thoughts I admit to having entertained, particularly on 9/11. I have not eradicated wholly from my thinking the concept of revenge. It's a personal failing, but I'm working on it.

If you're so obsessed and paranoid about Muslims that you concern yourself with their taking over America, is it not out of the question that you would translate those beliefs to your children?

I have no obsession or paranoia about Muslims. I don't believe I've ever made a post on the subject at this site until this thread. But if someone brings up a topic, I'll give my opinion. People (like you) bring up the subject and I state my point of view. I have no fear that they will take over America, because Americans, albeit slowly, always realize at some point when it's time to defend themselves and their allies. As long as they cease trying to martyr themselves on innocent Americans, I'm pretty fine with them. I do believe that a harsher stance towards anti-American violence would solve the problem pretty quickly. Bullies typically attack weakness and flee from strength.

Should we attempt to foster better relations and understanding with Muslims, without coddling them? Should we teach our kids that there are Muslims that mean us harm, and their beliefs are at odds with the freedoms that we enjoy as Americans?

Without coddling them, sure. When my daughter is old enough to understand, and ceases picking on little Muslim kids at the park, that is precisely what I'll teach her. Not sure why you'd think I'd teach her anything else. Perhaps I would understand your response if I didn't know that you have the ability to understand satirical statements yourself. But I know that's not the case since you made a pretty funny post as 'Ann Coultre.'

Or are you the only one that's allowed to use humor?

Which segment of Islam is better served when powerful and vocal elements in this country constantly claim we're at war with Islam?

Probably not the segment that we decide to obliterate. Tell me we couldn't do it if we decided to. Seriously. As Samuel L. Jackson once said, "If my answers bother you should cease asking scary questions."

At the same time, we should limit Muslim immigration to a trickle and make certain their communities in this country respect our laws, not Sharia. We should identify the domestic terrorists through legal means, then arrest, prosecute, imprison and, if proven guilty of certain crimes, executed. We should maintain a military presence in the Persian Gulf. We should foster economic cooperation and champion civil rights while respecting sovereignty.

I respect that view as the best alternative to the obliteration option. It's the option I would have chosen on most days other than 9/11/2001.

but it's more an attack on the modern conservative, which is constantly demanding adherence to radical positions

I don't recall demanding adherence to any radical positions regarding Muslims. I mentioned that I stereotype Muslims in non-free countries (remember when stereotyping people was considered a useful way to make quick decisions about the motives of people you don't personally know, as opposed to being viewed as a greater evil than flying planes into the World Trade Center?), based on their general actions and what their holy book tells them to do. I also mentioned that I am vehemently opposed to most of their leaders, and that we should't take any options off the table when dealing with countries that are led by those leaders.

the probable result being fewer conservatives and more libertarians.

Many conservatives would say I'm more libertarian than conservative. Which is part of the reason why I thought you were a fairly reasonable lefty. But after this, I'm not so sure.

The day will never come that I impugn your motives on a personal level, or rip your family values.

I've lost a great deal of respect for you. I really thought you were above that crap.
 
186Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Wed, Jun 25, 2008, 06:59
Should we attempt to foster better relations and understanding with Muslims

I would love to hear an explanation as to what is misunderstood on both sides.

 
187Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Wed, Jun 25, 2008, 07:02
re: #174 & #177

...and if she gets caught she gets her head chopped off.
 
188Pancho Villa
      ID: 47161721
      Wed, Jun 25, 2008, 14:52
Which is part of the reason why I thought you were a fairly reasonable lefty. But after this, I'm not so sure.

You've fallen into the black/white world that many of your conservative brethren do. If someone disagrees with you or challenges a piece of your ideology, they are automatically a lefty.

Truth is, I'm much more of a Ron Paul Republican than I am a lefty, with some major exceptions: I don't think we can ever revert to the gold standard again, I disagree with his interpretation of the 2nd amendment, and I'm not passionate about the abortion issue either way. But I'm passionate that the beauracracy is bloated beyond reason, the nanny state is being perpetuated at the expense of personal responsibility, the concept of national defense has been distorted beyond reason(mostly by conservatives), most unions(including the national teachers' and government employees') don't serve this country's best interests,
and generally am an avowed capitalist.

But you characterize me as a lefty, which makes me wonder if you truly understand what leftists believe(in varying degrees) or it's just a fall back position you use when you can't effectively counter. Perhaps using radical was overreaching when I stated constantly demanding adherence to radical positions, because a lot of the positions that your style of conservatism promotes aren't radical, but you do demand adherence. Hence, Ron Paul is not conservative, John McCain is not conservative, Chuck Hagel is not conservative, Pat Buchanan is not conservative, etc., at least not acceptably conservative to the Limbaugh/Coulter/Hannity wing. There's an entire cottage industry based on this brand of conservatism, and anyone who strays or dissents is branded as a Marxist, communist, isolationist, terrorist sympathizer, RINO or CINO.

I get Townhall by e-mail every day. The regular posters are brutal on Buchanan and George Will, sometimes even Charles Krauthammer, Robert Bluey and Bob Novak, if they appear to stray towards moderation. During the Republican presidential nominating process, the early support from TH regulars was for Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter. When they failed early, support moved to Fred Thompson. When he bailed, support split between Romney and Huckabee, but never McCain(or Giuliani).

This leads me to wonder just how much influence the Limbaugh/Coulter conservatives have within the Republican Party and the population as a whole.





 
189bibA
      ID: 38582315
      Wed, Jun 25, 2008, 15:21
MITH was another regular poster who was far from a "leftist", but who was branded as being so when he patiently tried time and again to express his moderate views, until he gave up due to the constant accusations.

These boards are so much more valueable having open minded centrists like Pancho and MITH articulate their positions so well.
 
190nerveclinic
      ID: 5047110
      Wed, Jun 25, 2008, 15:32

Dude, I read. I read monumental volumes of info.

Well then Baldwin why do you constantly tell me I shouldn't judge other Muslims by the ones in Dubai, as if it's only the Dubai version who commit acts of vice?...now you are changing your tune.

 
191azdbacker
      ID: 235432517
      Wed, Jun 25, 2008, 18:48
Pancho - As you know I've only been back here for a short time and in that time I've seen you take on the right wingers far more, and far more disagreeably, than I've seen you challenge lefties. I did notice that you were anti-union and that you commented on the ill effects of welfare policy, which is why I thought you were pretty reasonable overall. But I thought I remembered one of the liberal posters claiming you as one of their own. I must've been mistaken and I apologize.
 
192biliruben
      ID: 52561217
      Wed, Jun 25, 2008, 18:51
I claim him as one of my own...
... rational.

Anybody who's rational and looks at substantiated evidence with reasonable objectivity can join my camp. They might not want to, but they're welcome!

 
193Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Wed, Jun 25, 2008, 22:01
Nerve

Obviously Dubai is like the Vegas of the middle east. What goes on in Dubai stays in Dubai. Just because other countries have vice doesn't mean Dubai isn't waaaaay atypical.
 
194Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Thu, Jun 26, 2008, 04:43
Thinking energy using actual numbers.

I've had this urge to personally experiment with desert solar collectors and it makes sense to me that the price of this form could really be driven down rapidly and dramatically.

Now is Arizona land really that cheap? And for how long? There's my daydream in the back of my mind for several years now.
 
195nerveclinic
      ID: 5047110
      Thu, Jun 26, 2008, 05:06

Obviously Dubai is like the Vegas of the middle east. What goes on in Dubai stays in Dubai. Just because other countries have vice doesn't mean Dubai isn't waaaaay atypical.

Yeah it is waaaay atypical as a state. My point all along has been that even in the "more strict" countries, and even fascists one like Saudi, things go on.

You can't assume that just because the government decrees certain rules, that all the citizens agree with or even follow the rules, any more then Americans don't smoke pot because the Feds say they can't.

So what does this say about Muslims as a group. Yeah there are zealots, yes there are strict adherents to the rules, but there is also a LARGE sub culture that breaks the rules. I continue to point this out to dispel some of the stereotyping that goes on.

Yeah if you get caught in Saudi you are in big time trouble. Hell if you get caught with a joint in Dubai you are in big, big trouble. That doesn't mean that all Muslims agree with or are happy about the rules at all.

You implied earlier that other then Muslims in Dubai, the rest of the Arab world goes along with the rules they are forced to live under. I have been suggesting all along that is not the case, it's not black and white, nor are the rules in these other countries always followed.

I don't think we are arguing semantics, I think you don't understand the extent of rule breaking that goes on in even the strictest Muslim societies.

By the way Dubai is not the Las Vegas, still no gambling or Barry Manilow.

The other point is it's comically sad that so few Americans understand just how many people from Muslim countries ADMIRE America. Our freedom, our movies, our music, our sexy MTV videos. We've been so propagandized by the Coltur ad Bush types that we don't understand this.

Yeah I am in Dubai but I meet Muslims from many other countries, lot's of Pakis, Indians, Iranians, Iraqis etc...funny, I can't find ANY of them who are the least bit hostile to me.

What I usually here is "AMERICA" THUMBS UP GESTURE "GOOD, GOOD AMERICA GOOD"

Try to engage them in anti Bush political rhetoric and they won't take the bait for the most part.

I know there are plenty that hate America (mostly because of our support for Isreal) but it isn't this big homogeneous group that thinks the same way as some here would imply.
 
196Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Thu, Jun 26, 2008, 06:26
Nerve

Oddly just the opposite, I am amazed a religion so devoid of love as a motivator and so dependent on fear and intimidation can have genuine adherents.

Just for the sake of speculation, what is your feel for whether they can be manipulated into a world war and can you see any other way their cultures could be shocked into throwing off religion in the way Japan threw off Shintoism?
 
197Tree
      ID: 3533298
      Thu, Jun 26, 2008, 09:09
I am amazed a religion so devoid of love as a motivator and so dependent on fear and intimidation can have genuine adherents.

i think this sums up Nerve's whole point that you really don't understand even the basic tenets of the Muslim religion.

the funny thing is that i think your typical blanket statement could go for most religions - i again point to the perpetual forced conversions/murders my Christians, and i point to the Torah (Old Testament), where God was one mean sonuvabitch, turning people to pillars of salt, testing people by ordering them to sacrifice (murder) their own children, and denying the man who led his people into the promised land actual access to that promised land.
 
198Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Thu, Jun 26, 2008, 18:35
You want blanket statements?

Jewish system is all about law.

Christian system is all about love and conscience.

Muslim faith is all about submission.

You can sling mud all you want but those are the facts.
 
199Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Thu, Jun 26, 2008, 18:48
 
200nerveclinic
      ID: 5047110
      Fri, Jun 27, 2008, 08:53


No need to sling mud Baldwin...sometimes the things you say about Muslims describe exactly how I view your version of Christianity. I haven't heard much of the love part from you but plenty of submission.

Of course now we've completely hijacked this thread.

 
201Tree
      ID: 3533298
      Fri, Jun 27, 2008, 10:13
You want blanket statements?

Jewish system is all about law.

no, not really. i suppose it depends on which branch you follow, but law is only a tiny part of modern Judaism.

Christian system is all about love and conscience.

see the various Inquisitions. See the early treatment of Native Americans. see the Crusades. to the best of my knowledge, Christianity, while it may have tenets of love and conscience, has probably more glaring examples than any other religion that it does not practice what you claim it preaches.

Muslim faith is all about submission.

again - shows how little you understand about religion, despite your claims otherwise. in fact, i'd say there isn't much you do understand about much of anything, except for what you hold in your head, and, i bet, even that confuses you greatly.
 
202Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Fri, Jun 27, 2008, 14:17
1. Talmudical doesn't have the definition it does for no reason.

2. I have to agree that Christendom's record is terrible in the examples you cite. Just as Jerusalem was in Jesus' words..."Jerusalem, Jerusalem, the killer of the prophets and stoner of those sent forth to her"...so too Christendom killed the real Christian saints [among others] in the inquisitions. The one was the type to the other's antitype. That was one of the points of having a Jewish system that would be a shadow of the things to come.

3. The word 'Islam' means submission. So yeah, I do know that. I have read muslims comparing the two religions and they themselves are struck by the lack of love and intense sense of subjugation at the heart of Islam.
 
203Tree
      ID: 3533298
      Fri, Jun 27, 2008, 15:18
Talmudical doesn't have the definition it does for no reason.
Do you even know what the Talmud is?

the Talmud is merely a record of rabbinical discussions regarding not just law, but also Jewish customs, ethics, and history.

It's also comprised of several parts, written several hundred years apart. The second part is actually discussions of previous discussions.

It's second in line behind the Old Testament in importance, except to followers of Talmudic Judaism, who believe the two books are equal, but they're kind of wacky to me.

so yea, do your research a little bit more before you start telling me what a book on my religion is about. you skimmed the surface, but by omitting the depth, you really didn't give a true definition.

The word 'Islam' means submission. So yeah, I do know that. I have read muslims comparing the two religions and they themselves are struck by the lack of love and intense sense of subjugation at the heart of Islam.

perhaps so - but you're using it to seem as though the religion's tenets glorify violence, when the reality is that the submission is a submission to God, not a submission of man to another man.
 
204Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Fri, Jun 27, 2008, 15:46
The Talmud is the collected oral traditions of which Jesus said, "YOU have made the word of God invalid because of YOUR tradition. 7 YOU hypocrites, Isaiah aptly prophesied about YOU, when he said, 8 ‘This people honors me with their lips, yet their heart is far removed from me. 9 It is in vain that they keep worshiping me, because they teach commands of men as doctrines.'

These 'sayings'...and Jesus was always saying 'You heard it said ------ but...were collected up and written out 200 years later and then expanded on.

They were the epitome of nitpicking legalism and my description was precise. In fact they consider the Talmud to supercede the original Hebrew scriptures and Jews who still hold only to the original Hebrew scriptures are a highly persecuted minority in Isreal because of it.

You may know some yiddish I don't or some specific custom but you really aren't in my league when it comes to discussing the big picture in comparative religion. I make it my business to know that area of human knowlege.
 
205Tree
      ID: 3533298
      Fri, Jun 27, 2008, 16:15
the minute you start quoting what Jesus said about the Talmud is the minute what you're saying becomes irrelevant.

the big difference between Jews and Christians is Jesus, which, i'm presuming you're aware of.

So Jesus' opinion on a holy book of Judaism is no different than my opinion - it is the opinion of a normal man, no lesser, nor greater, than any other man.

In fact they consider the Talmud to supercede the original Hebrew scriptures and Jews who still hold only to the original Hebrew scriptures are a highly persecuted minority in Isreal because of it.

perhaps i'm misunderstanding you, but are you saying that Jews who hold the Old Testament to be more important than the Talmud to be a persecuted minority?

You may know some yiddish I don't or some specific custom but you really aren't in my league when it comes to discussing the big picture in comparative religion. I make it my business to know that area of human knowlege.

i couldn't be happier to not be in your league, because you're in a league of your own, and that's not a compliment.

you are incapable of viewing non-Christian religions without a skewed Christian perspective, and that presents a huge problem when discussing the big picture in comparative religion.
 
206Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Fri, Jun 27, 2008, 17:00
The persecuted minority are Jews who disregard the Talmud entirely and stick to the actual Hebrew scriptures.
 
207Tree
      ID: 95172721
      Fri, Jun 27, 2008, 22:23
The persecuted minority are Jews who disregard the Talmud entirely and stick to the actual Hebrew scriptures.

can you please point to said examples of persecution, and provide some links that are not associated with WND or any other similar hack sites?
 
208Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Sat, Jun 28, 2008, 13:26
That is gonna be a long hard research project unless I accidentally stumble across it early.

It is just a small point of trivia [not for them] I ran across reseaching for a talk I was assigned a couple months ago. I never memorized the name of the persecuted group and reconstructing the words I researched for that talk is gonna be a struggle.

Rather than criticize you for sending me on a wild goose chase I'll commend you for forcing an interesting point no one ever heard about into the light.
 
209Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Sat, Jun 28, 2008, 14:02
Well this isn't how I found it the first time but here it is...
Those who did not agree with the Rabbinic oral law were later called by the name "Karaites" (in Hebrew "Karaim" - ÷øàéí) - followers of the scriptures.

Historically, Karaite Judaism appeared as an organized movement that rejected the innovations of rabbinical Judaism and the authority of the Exilarch after the Islamic conquest of the Middle East. In some of their older writings, the Karaites claim descent from the Sadducees. Karaism accepts only the Tanakh, rejecting the Talmud and other rabbinical writings. In the 10th century, the Karaites are believed to have comprised about 10% of the world's Jewish population. At the time of the traveler Benjamin of Tudela in the 12th century, Karaites were widely dispersed around the eastern Mediterranean, both in Islamic areas and the Byzantine Empire. Benjamin describes Karaite communities in many of the places he visited.

In the early 20th century, small Karaite communities remained in Egypt, Turkey, the Crimea, and Lithuania. Today, there are about 14,000 Karaite Jews in the world, most of whom live in Israel.
 
210Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Sat, Jun 28, 2008, 14:23
In the latter half of the eighth century C.E., Jews in Babylon who opposed rabbinic authority and belief in their oral law responded to a learned leader named Anan ben David. He proclaimed each Jew’s right to unrestricted study of the Hebrew Scriptures as the only source of true religion, without regard for rabbinic interpretation or the Talmud. Anan taught: “Search thoroughly in the Torah [the written law of God] and do not rely on my opinion.” Because of this emphasis on Scripture, Anan’s followers became known as Qa·ra·´im´, a Hebrew name meaning “readers.”...

...Particularly after Anan’s death, Karaite leaders frequently disagreed over the degree and nature of certain restrictions, and their message was not always clear. The Karaites lacked unity because they did not recognize any single leader but emphasized personal reading and interpretation of the Scriptures, as opposed to rabbinic-style authority. Despite this, however, the Karaite movement grew in popularity and influence far beyond the Babylonian Jewish community and spread throughout the Middle East. A major Karaite center was even established in Jerusalem.

During the ninth and tenth centuries C.E., Karaite scholars excelled in a renewed study of the Hebrew language and experienced a sort of golden age. They considered the written Hebrew Scripture text, not the oral traditions, to be holy. Some Karaites became careful copyists of the Hebrew Scriptures. In fact, it was the Karaite challenge that spurred Masoretic study of the Scriptures among all Jews, ensuring a more accurately preserved Bible text today.

During this period of rapid growth, Karaite Judaism engaged in open missionary work among other Jews. This posed a clear threat to rabbinic Judaism.

How Did the Rabbis Respond?

The rabbinic counterattack was a vehement war of words, with cunning flexibility and repositioning of teaching. During the century following Anan’s attack, rabbinic Judaism adopted a number of the Karaite methods. The rabbis became more proficient in quoting the Scriptures, incorporating Karaite style and method in their rhetoric.

The undisputed leader of this verbal bout with the Karaites was Sa`adia ben Joseph, who became head of the Jewish community in Babylon in the first half of the tenth century C.E. Sa`adia’s major work, The Book of Beliefs and Opinions, was translated into English by Samuel Rosenblatt, who said in its introduction: “Even though . . . he was the authority in his day on the Talmud, [Sa`adia] makes comparatively sparing use of this source of Jewish tradition, apparently because it was his desire to defeat with their own weapons the Karaites who accepted only the Written Law as binding.”

Following in Sa`adia’s footsteps, rabbinic Judaism eventually gained the upper hand. It accomplished this by adapting just enough to take dynamic force away from Karaite arguments. The final blow was administered by Moses Maimonides, the noted Talmudic scholar of the 12th century. By his tolerant attitude toward the Karaites with whom he dwelt in Egypt, as well as his convincing scholarly style, he won their admiration and weakened the position of their own leadership.

The Karaite Movement Loses Momentum

Now lacking unity and without a well-orchestrated countermeasure, the Karaite movement lost both momentum and followers. With the passing of time, the Karaites modified their views and principles. Leon Nemoy, an author on the Karaite movement, writes: “While the Talmud remained theoretically outlawed, much talmudic material was quietly incorporated into Karaite practice of law and custom.” In essence, the Karaites lost their original purpose and adopted much of rabbinic Judaism.

There are still about 25,000 Karaites in Israel. A few thousand more can be found in other communities, mostly in Russia and the United States. Having their own oral traditions, however, they differ from the first Karaites.
- "Insight On The Scriptures" ['our' own Bible Encyclopedia]

 
211Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Sat, Jun 28, 2008, 14:28
And finally this.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled thread.
 
212Boldwin
      ID: 85241823
      Sat, Jun 28, 2008, 14:52
Well I guess I was challenged on the word persecution also. Still researching that, tho I will point out that followers of the Talmud were having Karaites flogged to death or conversion in Spain in the 11th century so there is no denying the level of hostility that has existed between the schism.
 
213Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Tue, Jul 01, 2008, 07:44
We Can Lower Oil Prices Now
By MARTIN FELDSTEIN
July 1, 2008; Page A17


Although most experts agree that financial speculation was not responsible for the surge in the global prices of food and energy, many people remain puzzled about the source of these remarkable price rises. Economics offers a simple supply-and-demand explanation and reason for optimism about the future of commodity prices. In the case of oil, economics also suggests how policy changes today that affect the future could quickly lower the current price of oil.

We all know that rising incomes in China, India and the Gulf states have increased the demand for oil and many other commodities. But how could the modest, one-year rise of these demands lead to 100% increases in the prices of oil and other commodities? Let's take a look first at perishable agricultural commodities.

In the short run, there is little scope for increasing the supply of corn in response to a global increase in demand. For demand and supply to balance – for the market to clear – the price of corn must rise.

If the demand for corn were very price-sensitive, a relatively small increase in price would reduce global demand by enough to offset the initial rise in demand. However, since demand is actually quite insensitive to price in the short run, it takes a very large price rise to bring global demand into line with supply.

Here is a simplified picture of what happened in the past year. The quantity of corn demanded by high-growth countries rose gradually, increasing eventually by an amount equal to, say, 10% of the previous total global level of corn consumption. Since the supply of corn did not increase, the price had to increase enough to reduce corn consumption in other countries by 10%. If it takes a 10% increase in the price to reduce the quantity of corn demanded in the first year by just 1%, it would take a 100% increase in the price of corn to offset the initial 10% rise in the quantity of corn demanded.

In reality, the picture is complicated by the substitution in both supply and demand among different agricultural commodities, and by the role of the corn ethanol program. But the basic explanation holds: With a very low short-run price sensitivity of demand and little scope to raise supply in the short run, even a relatively small increase in corn demand by the high-growth economies can lead to a very large short-run rise in the price of corn.

Fortunately, the price sensitivity of both demand and supply will increase with time. This implies that the rising demand from China and other countries may eventually be accommodated with a price lower than today's level.

The situation for oil is more complex, but the outcome for prices is potentially more favorable.

Unlike perishable agricultural products, oil can be stored in the ground. So when will an owner of oil reduce production or increase inventories instead of selling his oil and converting the proceeds into investible cash? A simplified answer is that he will keep the oil in the ground if its price is expected to rise faster than the interest rate that could be earned on the money obtained from selling the oil. The actual price of oil may rise faster or slower than is expected, but the decision to sell (or hold) the oil depends on the expected price rise.

There are of course considerations of risk, and of the impact of price changes on long-term consumer behavior, that complicate the oil owner's decision – and therefore the behavior of prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (the OPEC cartel), with its strong pricing power, still plays a role. But the fundamental insight is that owners of oil will adjust their production and inventories until the price of oil is expected to rise at the rate of interest, appropriately adjusted for risk. If the price of oil is expected to rise faster, they'll keep the oil in the ground. In contrast, if the price of oil is not expected to rise as fast as the rate of interest, the owners will extract more and invest the proceeds.

The relationship between future and current oil prices implies that an expected change in the future price of oil will have an immediate impact on the current price of oil.

Thus, when oil producers concluded that the demand for oil in China and some other countries will grow more rapidly in future years than they had previously expected, they inferred that the future price of oil would be higher than they had previously believed. They responded by reducing supply and raising the spot price enough to bring the expected price rise back to its initial rate.

Hence, with no change in the current demand for oil, the expectation of a greater future demand and a higher future price caused the current price to rise. Similarly, credible reports about the future decline of oil production in Russia and in Mexico implied a higher future global price of oil – and that also required an increase in the current oil price to maintain the initial expected rate of increase in the price of oil.

Once this relation is understood, it is easy to see how news stories, rumors and industry reports can cause substantial fluctuations in current prices – all without anything happening to current demand or supply.

Of course, a rise in the spot price of oil triggered by a change in expectations about future prices will cause a decline in the current quantity of oil that consumers demand. If current supply and demand were initially in balance, the OPEC countries and other oil producers would respond by reducing sales to bring supply into line with the temporary reduction in demand. A rise in the expected future demand for oil thus causes a current decline in the amount of oil being supplied. This is what happened as the Saudis and others cut supply in 2007.

Now here is the good news. Any policy that causes the expected future oil price to fall can cause the current price to fall, or to rise less than it would otherwise do. In other words, it is possible to bring down today's price of oil with policies that will have their physical impact on oil demand or supply only in the future.

For example, increases in government subsidies to develop technology that will make future cars more efficient, or tighter standards that gradually improve the gas mileage of the stock of cars, would lower the future demand for oil and therefore the price of oil today.

Similarly, increasing the expected future supply of oil would also reduce today's price. That fall in the current price would induce an immediate rise in oil consumption that would be matched by an increase in supply from the OPEC producers and others with some current excess capacity or available inventories.

Any steps that can be taken now to increase the future supply of oil, or reduce the future demand for oil in the U.S. or elsewhere, can therefore lead both to lower prices and increased consumption today.

Mr. Feldstein, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Reagan, is a professor at Harvard and a member of The Wall Street Journal's board of contributors.
 
214biliruben
      ID: 4911361723
      Tue, Jul 01, 2008, 09:22
Good, simple, article. The only problem is I don't future prices are higher than spot prices and there is little evidence that producers are keeping the black stuff in the ground.
 
215nerveclinic
      ID: 5047110
      Tue, Jul 01, 2008, 13:23


there is little evidence that producers are keeping the black stuff in the ground.

I think that's true. Even when the Saudis promise to produce more there are plenty of experts who doubt they have the capability and what they do produce will be very low grade crude.

Everyone else seems to be producing all they can except perhaps for the problems with oil pipelines being sabotaged in Nigeria creating a bit of a slow down.

 
216astade
      ID: 1533770
      Tue, Jul 01, 2008, 23:13
From my first hand experience, getting a new oil field online or increasing current production at an existing field has a long lead time.
 
217Boldwin
      ID: 3363215
      Wed, Jul 02, 2008, 16:34
Astade

Yes, perhaps 10 years but the effect on the markets is a whole nuther beast.

Research hounds should look up the effect on Indian markets with the name Rajasthan.

Brazil - Tupi, Carioca

Kazakhstan - Kashagan

USA - Bakken

Then figure the effects on the futures market if a president and a congress released the ANWR, offshore, oil shale production, Arctic.

The markets see well over 300 billion barrels preparing to come to market and the effect happens sooner than 10 years out. [not that a boost 10 years out would be a bad thing either]

 
218astade
      ID: 241071315
      Wed, Jul 02, 2008, 16:59
Boldwin, I agree. See my posts (114 and 131).

My last post was directly addressing oil production.
 
219Boldwin
      ID: 3363215
      Wed, Jul 02, 2008, 17:12
Ok, thanks.
 
220nerveclinic
      ID: 5047110
      Wed, Jul 02, 2008, 17:23

From my first hand experience, getting a new oil field online or increasing current production at an existing field has a long lead time...

Yes, perhaps 10 years but the effect on the markets is a whole nuther beast.


Wait, you're saying that once we are sure there is oil in the ground and we decide to drill it takes 10 years???!

Without even googling I would guess it's less then 5 maybe 2-3.

Unless you are talking deep sea.



 
221Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Wed, Jul 02, 2008, 19:23
Just curious as to why it matters if it's 10 years, 5, 3 or 2 years? Right now we have nothing. Either of those scenarios is better than what we have now. Saying it takes too long is a limp Obamanite talking point designed to push his agenda.
 
222Pancho Villa
      ID: 495272016
      Wed, Jul 02, 2008, 21:47
Right now we have nothing.

Really? Nothing? That's too bad, because in my state, I can easily get gasoline any time I want without waiting in line at all, as opposed to those in say, Baghdad.

Motorists wait in 2-mile-long line for gasoline at a petrol station in Baghdad Tuesday, a day after Iraq announced it is opening six major oil fields and two natural gas fields to development by foreign firms. Iraq, which has one of the world's largest oil reserves, still has major challenges delivering fuel to its people. Iraq's oil minister has said the country expects to reap revenues of $70 billion by year's end if world prices remain high.

So, if we have nothing, then Iraqis have less than nothing I suppose. When was the last time anyone here spent time in a line two miles long to fill their gas tank? If that were a common occurence in this country, I guarantee the rate of assault and battery would at least double.

And if Baldwin's theory that The markets see well over 300 billion barrels preparing to come to market and the effect happens sooner than 10 years out, then why, a day after Iraq announced it is opening six major oil fields and two natural gas fields to development by foreign firms, did the price of crude jump a couple dollars today?

Americans are acting like crack addicts, to the extent that they're being told that environmental safeguards don't just need to be relaxed, but eliminated altogether. Expect to see plenty of
Athabasca tar sands nightmares in the future.

Canada claims that it has 175 billion barrels of recoverable oil in Alberta, making the province second only to Saudi Arabia in proved oil riches and sparking a 50bn "oil rush" as American, Chinese and European investors rush to profit from high oil prices. Despite production costs per barrel of up to 15, compared to 1 per barrel in Saudi Arabia, the Canadian province expects to be pumping five million barrels of crude a day by 2030.

BP said it will be using a technology that pumps steam heated by natural gas into vertical wells to liquefy the solidified oil sands and pump it to the surface in a way that is less damaging than open cast mining. But campaigners said this method requires 1,000 cubic feet of gas to produce one barrel of unrefined bitumen the same required to heat an average British home for 5.5 days.

A spokesman for BP added: "These are resources that would have been developed anyway."

Licenses have been issued by the Albertan government to extract 350 million cubic metres of water from the Athabasca River every year. But the water used in the extraction process, say campaigners, is so contaminated that it cannot be returned to the eco-system and must instead be stored in vast "tailings ponds" that cover up to 20 square miles and there is evidence of increased rates of cancer and multiple sclerosis in down-river communities.

Experts say a pledge to restore all open cast tar sand mines to their previous pristine condition has proved sadly lacking. David Schindler, professor of ecology at the University of Alberta, said: "Right now the big pressure is to get that money out of the ground, not to reclaim the landscape. I wouldn't be surprised if you could see these pits from a satellite 1,000 years from now."


Proponents of opening up every inch of federal land to the whims of the extraction industries(because, after all, we have nothing), should explain to the American people why so many existing leases are idle.

U.S. Congressman Jason Altmire (PA-04) held a press conference in Washington, D.C. today calling on oil companies to drill on the more than 68 million acres owned by the federal government onshore and offshore that they currently hold leases but have not developed. Currently oil companies are producing on only about 20 percent of the acres they hold offshore and less than 30 percent of the acres they hold onshore. These unused areas could produce an additional 4.8 million barrels of oil and 44 billion cubic feet of natural gas each day. This amount of oil would nearly double current domestic oil production.

“With gas prices above $4, it is time for oil companies to start producing on the more than 68 million acres of federal land that they hold leases to right now,” Altmire said. “These inactive leases could produce nearly double the current level of domestic oil production and more than six times the estimated peak production that ANWR would provide 20 years from now.”


So, we're expected to succumb to the wishes of the energy conglomerates(and their inaccurately-named conservative supporters) and relax any and all environmental safeguards in granting them free reign to drilling and exploration without demanding why they're sitting on more than 68 million acres of existing leases?

We don't need to ween ourselves off of foreign oil as much as we need to ween ourselves off of oil. Unfortunately, that will never happen when Americans' complain that we have nothing, while gluttonously consuming 25% of the world's oil. It's clear that conservatives don't include conservation in their core principles.

 
223nerveclinic
      ID: 5047110
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 01:00

PV I agree there is oil right now but most countries are pumping everything they can and are still barely keeping up with demand. That may change if the price of oil stays as high as it is. It's also a big reason why cost is high, in order to keep supply demand balance in check so we don't have long lines and shortages.

Your paste about oil in Canada is just further evidence of how expensive this oil will be. The article noted it costs 15 times what it costs the Saudis to pull from the ground. So while it may be abundant, it's going to cost a lot.

It doesn't make much difference if we have this huge cache of oil in Canada if the cost of extracting it is $5.00 a gallon gas in the end, it's the same dilemma for the economy.

Your post about Iraq is easily explained by the difference between crude oil that they are pulling from the ground and refined oil used to make gas. They probably don't have the refining capabilities locally which would explain the problem with delivery to cars.

 
224nerveclinic
      ID: 5047110
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 01:04

Saying it takes too long is a limp Obamanite talking point designed to push his agenda.

Disingenuous at best to make it a partisan issue. How many years did the Republicans have both houses of congress and the Presidency and they did nothing about energy or drilling or conservation or cafe standards or nuclear power?

There's plenty of blame to go around on energy issues.


 
225Perm Dude
      ID: 1463718
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 01:12
The article noted it costs 15 times what it costs the Saudis to pull from the ground.

That's certainly true, but the distribution costs are a fraction of Mideast oil. As we see in Iraq today (where oil is even cheaper to get out of the ground than Saudia Arabia), getting the crude out of the ground is only the first step.

You're very right on the blame. Plenty to go around. Partly, I think, because there is also a lot of denial going around about energy in this country.
 
226Tree
      ID: 261031
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 02:12
Just curious as to why it matters if it's 10 years, 5, 3 or 2 years? Right now we have nothing. Either of those scenarios is better than what we have now.

maybe it's not the supply we need to increase, but the demand we need to decrease.
 
227Boldwin
      ID: 3363215
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 04:11
Maybe we need to use oil until alternate technologies mature and their effectiveness improves.

Hydrogen power and electric are here now but the infrastructure isn't here for hydrogen and the technology isn't far enuff along for electric to be pragmatic.
 
228Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 06:32
PV 222: You took that comment entirely out of context and you know it.

There's plenty of blame to go around on energy issues.

Fair and accurate. But which candidate in this election is the most against new drilling?

McCain is no champion of it either because of his own restrictions, but it's also fair to point Obama's shortcomings on this issue.

maybe it's not the supply we need to increase, but the demand we need to decrease.

We need to do both for many reasons. Not the least of which is because the poor and marginal middle class will be the last to switch over. They can least afford buying new vehicles running on alternate sources and certainly couldn't afford a solar array on the roof or a wind turbine on the "back 40". Increasing the supply and lowering the demand will help ease the increase of gasoline costs. Regardless of the law of supply and demand I refuse to believe that Big Oil will go back to $2 per gallon gas. They know people will pay $4.50 for it so they will charge it.
 
229Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 11:04
I thought this was a good column from Larry Kudlow. He seems to have no faith in the long term prospects of alternatives as it relates to the total % of US electric power, but the other points he makes are powerful.

An America First Energy Plan
By Lawrence Kudlow


President Bush was on message Wednesday in a Rose Garden news conference when he kept up the pressure on his a drill, drill, drill offensive. He said he knows Americans are worried about gasoline prices, and said he wants them “to understand fully that we have got the opportunity to find more crude oil here at home in environmentally friendly ways.” He specifically mentioned opening up ANWR, the outer continental shelf, and oil-shale exploration. He also took a whack at lawmakers, saying “the Democratically controlled Congress has refused to budge.”

That’s spot-on correct. But it has me wondering. Where in the world is John McCain on this very same issue? It’s simple: Sen. McCain should be pummeling Barack Obama daily on drill, drill, drill. Why? Because oil and gas pump prices are potentially the single-biggest wedge issue in the presidential campaign. Mr. McCain has to pound the point home.

According to a new Rasmussen poll, 48 percent of Americans say lower gas prices are the key to an economic recovery, and 60 percent are in favor of off-shore drilling.

Here’s another one. Rasmussen asked voters about the now-infamous Harry Reid YouTube video, where the senator says coal and oil are making us sick, and that fossil-fueled global warming is “ruining our country” and “ruining our world.” Well, Rasmussen shows that 52 percent of voters reject Reid on coal; 50 percent disagree with him on oil; and 51 reject his idea that we need to stop using fossil fuels.

And all this is McCain’s opportunity. He needs to hammer away on an America First energy policy that will completely deregulate and decontrol this nation’s great energy industry. He needs to mothball his errant statements on “obscene oil profits.” Instead, he needs to support and unleash all of our energy companies and entrepreneurs, allowing them to develop whatever it takes on oil, gas-to-liquid, clean coal, nuclear, offshore, onshore, oil shale, wind, solar, and biofuel.

America First should be the rallying cry. We have the natural resources to become the Saudi Arabia of coal and the Saudi Arabia of oil. Lift the moratoriums. Stop attacking our own businesses. Put technology to work. Put venture capital to work, with rock-bottom capital-gains and corporate tax rates. Stop being mau-maued by the extremist greenies who have prevented energy production for over three decades. America First. Unleash our free-enterprise energy sector: 2 trillion barrels worth of shale; 90 billion barrels of offshore oil; at least 10 billion barrels up in ANWR and more throughout Alaska, both onshore and off.

Politically, Sen. McCain must also understand how Hillary Clinton clobbered Barack Obama in the big state primaries: Blue-collar workers. They can be the key to victory for McCain. Guess who works in the energy business? Blue collar Reagan Democrats. They work on the rigs. They work in the fields. They drive the trucks. And they’re paid high wages -- substantially above the average hourly wage.

Or McCain can sell it this way: American workers are worried about jobs going offshore to India, China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. Well, a drill, drill, drill, America First energy plan would create millions of new domestic American jobs.

Of course, there’s also a national security aspect to this. Worried about funding terrorist rogue states? Drill, drill, drill. A complete portfolio of oil energy sources in America -- that’s the answer.

And while he’s at it, Sen. McCain should stop blaming “reckless traders.” As soon as you say “end the drilling moratoriums,” it is precisely those traders who will start selling oil contracts -- long before the first offshore oil barrels are delivered to market. If they see presidential leadership on oil and shale drilling, they will rapidly turn a bull market into a bear market.

Sen. Obama is opposed to drilling. Opposed to nuclear. Opposed to coal. He and Harry Reid believe wind, solar, and ethanol are the answers. They’re not. It’s doubtful even at full development and commercialization that these alternative technologies will ever power more than 10 percent of our energy needs. We should go down this road as part of a full energy portfolio. But let’s not kid ourselves: These sources alone will never be sufficient.

Sen. McCain has to make this case daily. He must contrast his America First energy plan with Obama’s declinist American vision. He must argue America First for fuel, power, jobs, wages, and national security. He must enlist the Reagan Democrats who may be out of work and are surely angry at $4 gas at the pump and $140 a barrel oil in the world market.

Take a page from Ronald Reagan, Mr. McCain. Be optimistic about our future. Be clear, straightforward, and consistent. We can grow this economy and remain number one. This is how to do it.
 
230Pancho Villa
      ID: 495272016
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 11:18
2 trillion barrels worth of shale

Ooops, there goes Kudlow's credibility.
 
231Boldwin
      ID: 3363215
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 11:45
Honestly I'd double-check that before dismissing it, PV. I read somewhere that just the oil-shale in this continent could power the USA [or was it the whole world?] for a hundred years.
 
232Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 11:51
Just a cursory search on Google showed links to articles outlining reserves of 1.5 trillion barrels which makes Kudlow's point valid.
 
233nerveclinic
      ID: 5047110
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 12:03


Honestly I'd double-check that before dismissing it, PV. I read somewhere that just the oil-shale in this continent could power the USA [or was it the whole world?] for a hundred years.

My understanding of shale oil, not having studied the issue, just stuff I seem to remember hearing on Bloomberg pod casts, is that it's still difficult and expensive to get out of the ground. Yeah at 140 a barrel it's worth it, but it maybe doesn't help get the 140 a barrel cost down much because it's so expensive to extract.

If this is true, what good does it do toward solving 146 a barrel oil if it costs almost that much to extract and bring this stuff out of the ground.

Again vague but I believe I've heard the technology on this is getting better so at some time that price may come down.

Again just vague recollection not in depth knowledge.

 
234Perm Dude
      ID: 296439
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 12:08
I noted elsewhere, and crossposted here, shale has some incredible potential in the near future because of new technologies to extract the energy. So Kudlow is right on that point.

Where he's wrong is thinking that attacking Obama will get McCain anywhere, on this or any other issues. Americans aren't interested in voting for a cranky old man for President, and the GOP is in decline because of their overreliance on attack politics while letting political innovation and diversity wither on the vine for the sake of party loyalty.
 
235Pancho Villa
      ID: 495272016
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 12:12
You may want to re-check. While there are claims of 1.2 to 1.8 trillion barrels, the most optimistic estimate of recoverable oil is 800 billion,, less than half of what Kudlow states, and a completely unrealistic number without total environmental devastation of the tri-state area, not to mention the tens of millions dependent on the Colorado River, already in fragile shape. I mention this about once a week, but it just gets ignored. Kudlow has done probably zero research on the environmental impacts of full scale shale and tar sands production in the region, and he probably doesn't care. I highly doubt Kudlow has ever been to Rangely, Meeker, Vernal or Rifle, or even Grand Junction.

Even given Boxman's unlinked claim of reserves of 1.5 trillion barrels, that means Kudlow overstated by a half a trillion barrels. How many economists do you consider valid who make mistakes of half a trillion?
 
236Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 12:22
Oil Shale Reserves

America's oil shale reserves are enormous, totaling at least 1.5 trillion barrels of oil. That's five times the
reserves of Saudi Arabia! And yet, no one is producing commercial quantities of oil from these vast deposits.


U.S. HAS MASSIVE OIL RESERVES

There is an estimated 2 trillion barrels of oil buried beneath parts of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming. Geologists, petroleum companies and the federal government have known about these massive deposits for nearly a century. The trouble has always been: how do you get at it?

It is believed that the shale deposits in the Green River region of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming are holding the equivalent of approximately 1.5 trillion to 1.8 trillion barrels of oil. Called “oil shale” or “shale oil,” according to scientists and petroleum companies, much of it cannot be recovered with current technology due to the costly processing involved and the depth of the deposits buried beneath the Rocky Mountains.

Still, if only half can be extracted, scientists believe the amount is nearly triple the oil reserves of Saudi Arabia.


Nerveclinic: If this is true, what good does it do toward solving 146 a barrel oil if it costs almost that much to extract and bring this stuff out of the ground.

It may solve 160/180/200 barrel oil and as others stated earlier as extraction costs lower it will get cheaper.
 
237Pancho Villa
      ID: 495272016
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 12:31
#236

Both articles linked to make the claims of huge amounts of oil from shale, but neither even gives a cursory glimpse into the environmental degradation involved in production levels in the billions and trillions. Neither mentions water, for instance, and without mention of water, those articles are good only for wiping one's buttocks.
 
238Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 12:36
What level of environmental degradation are you comfortable with?
 
239Perm Dude
      ID: 296439
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 12:37
Only if you print them out, PV.

BTW, my cursory research in this area is limited to natural gas, in which new techniques look very promising.
 
240Pancho Villa
      ID: 495272016
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 12:52
A buddy of mine who lives near me in the Salt Lake area works out of Parachute, Colorado in the natural gas industry. He works two weeks on, two weeks off, because when on the job, he doesn't actually live in Parachute(a wide spot in the road between Junction and Rifle), he lives in a trailer on-site, about 40 miles on a dirt road from Parachute.

The natural gas biz in booming all through the region, as is regular oil drilling and geothermal wells. They can't find enough workers to live out in the boonies in trailers a good two hours from the nearest real population center.

But here's my challenge to Boxman. Check all the water sources in the map from the first link in #236. Research the amount of water needed not only to produce the oil, but estimate the amount needed for infrastructure needed to support an operation that produces billions(or trillions if you think Kudlow has credibility)of oil.
Then research existing Colorado River water rights.
Then estimate the existing Colorado River rights if a warming climate in the Rockies affects annual snowfall in the negative.

Until Kudlow, Baldwin, Boxman or any other claimant of billions and trillions of oil in shale can intelligently and factually address just this issue, it's pointless to discuss, except to point out how fraudulent the claims.
 
241nerveclinic
      ID: 5047110
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 13:50


If PV is accurate in making his case in post 240, he is making some points that have to be factored heavily into the equation.

One point though PV you don't need to bring it all out of the ground in one day, even a couple million barrels would make a big difference.



 
242Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 14:41
One point though PV you don't need to bring it all out of the ground in one day, even a couple million barrels would make a big difference.

Exactly.

I believe it was you that called for what I'll refer to as The Perfect Storm against the market speculators and the price of oil. Even if only 100 billion barrels (1/20th of the estimated capacity of this region) is extractable and environmentally friendly, that coupled with high MPG standards, a Manhattan Project program for alternatives like solar and wind, and government subsidies for existing solar and wind companies would give speculators a panic attack and cause oil to drop. It would also lead us off of foreign oil.

But here's my challenge to Boxman. Check all the water sources in the map from the first link in #236. Research the amount of water needed not only to produce the oil, but estimate the amount needed for infrastructure needed to support an operation that produces billions(or trillions if you think Kudlow has credibility)of oil.

My team of geologists and engineers are at O'Hare Airport as we speak. Care to join us? Good grief.

This isn't a personal attack on you PV and I'm stating that because I don't want you to take it as such. While your point is valid about the amount of water resources necessary to both extract this oil and support human life for those who depend on the Colorado River, you come off (at least to me) as obstructionist because it seems that no idea is good enough if the environment pays a price. There has to be compromise on an issue this size and the conservatives who refuse to take the environment are just as culpable in our failure as you are when all you consider is the environment.
 
243Perm Dude
      ID: 296439
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 14:49
I think PV has a low threshhold for environmental damage to extract a dwindling resource that we really shouldn't be on in the first place. Just like $4/gallon gas is finally getting people to kick their SUV habit, so too will we continue to search for oil to the expense of the environment (and viable energy alternatives) until we collectively say "no, that's enough."
 
244biliruben
      ID: 52561217
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 14:52
Boxman, it's like you have to read something 5 times before it sinks in. So I'll say it again. Maybe one or two more times and you'll either stop spouting about speculators or present some evidence that they are really a problem.

Speculators are not to blame here, if they were:

(1) oil futures would be higher than current spot prices
(2) there would be hording, or evidence of lower production.

In reality, the futures are lower than the spot prices and the evidence points to no hording and production going full-steam ahead.

If you're sole purpose of demanding increased production at any cost is to whack speculators, you are drinking congressional Kool-Aid.
 
245Boldwin
      ID: 3363215
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 16:24
Where he's wrong is thinking that attacking Obama will get McCain anywhere, on this or any other issues. - PD

Priceless.

What would work, in your opinion? McCain should maybe genuflect?
 
246Perm Dude
      ID: 296439
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 16:43
Kudlow says McCain should exploit, or manufacture, a wedge issue. People are sick of wedge issues being exploited--it is why the GOP is on the run.

Fear and exploitation only goes so far politically.

Kudlow's article is all about what Obama is doing wrong (with one sentence about what McCain is doing wrong, and should correct). Obama beat Clinton and currently leads nationally because people want to believe in what he stands for, not what he stands against.

This will be the lesson you'll learn this November.
 
247Pancho Villa
      ID: 495272016
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 17:49
you come off (at least to me) as obstructionist because it seems that no idea is good enough if the environment pays a price. There has to be compromise on an issue this size and the conservatives who refuse to take the environment are just as culpable in our failure as you are when all you consider is the environment.

Let me refresh your memory(or you may have missed the post..last week I think). I opposed Salazar and Udall extending the shale moratorium. Shale is a viable product at this point, with the price of crude, and it should become part of the mix.

Here's what you seem to be missing. Talk of 2 trillion barrells of oil sitting untouched, just waiting to be tapped and sent to market.
Irresponsible talk often leads to irresponsible actions.

All I ever hear from conservative pundits anymore is DRILL!DRILL!DRILL! Find me a conservative who is promoting CONSERVE!DRILL!CONSERVE!

Kudlow is guilty, as are many conservatives, of several things in his column:

>He uses incredibly inflated estimates of "reserves" in an attempt to divert from the fact that oil is a finite resource that will eventually be obsolete, attempting to lull people into thinking that we don't need to conserve or look for new and more efficient energy sources, we just need to drill.

>He completely abandons any thought about environmental impact, not only as if it's not important, but that it's an impediment to our continued lack of discipline when it comes to energy consumption. When he says America First, he sure doesn't mean first in responsible use of energy. He's saying, "Let's find everyway possible to continue our behavior."
How about America First in energy technology of the future?

You can call me on the carpet for being an obtructionist and that I'm just as culpable in our failure when all I consider is the environment if you think that's a fair assessment, but as long as people are touting the wonders of 2 trillion barrells of oil in an area I am intimately familiar with for the past 40 years, I will continue to attempt to explain why such talk is either inherently dishonest or just plain ignorant.

 
248Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 18:09
Here's what you seem to be missing. Talk of 2 trillion barrells of oil sitting untouched, just waiting to be tapped and sent to market.
Irresponsible talk often leads to irresponsible actions.


In the span of 10 minutes I found sources stating there was 1.5 trillion barrels worth of oil in that region. It is waiting to be tapped. The main factor in question is what is the cost economically and environmentally.

All I ever hear from conservative pundits anymore is DRILL!DRILL!DRILL! Find me a conservative who is promoting CONSERVE!DRILL!CONSERVE!

And they are just as guilty as those who sacrifice everything for the sake of the environment or alternative energy only initiatives.

Biliruben: Speculators are not to blame here

I may not like him, but I have to admit his business acumen; Soros blames them and so do people that own gas stations.

Senate told speculators causing oil madness

One is a billionaire financier and the other operates seven gas stations and convenience stores in a farming community of 7,000 in eastern Washington state.
But George Soros and Gerry Ramm joined others in delivering the same message last week to the Senate Commerce Committee. Rampant speculation has helped spur out-of-control crude oil prices, which neared $140 a barrel Friday.
In the measured tones of high finance, Soros, whose hedge fund by some accounts made $3 billion last year, talked about a ''speculative excess'' and warned that the run-up in oil prices could drag the United States into a recession.
''It is intellectually dishonest, potentially destabilizing and distinctly harmful in its economic consequences,'' he said.
Ramm, the president of the Inland Oil Co. of Ephrata, Wash., was a bit more plain-spoken.
''Excessive speculation on energy trading is the fuel that is driving this runaway train in crude oil prices.''
Others testifying said speculation by investment banks, hedge funds, institutional investors and others may be responsible for more than half of the skyrocketing price of crude oil.
 
249Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 18:32
You guys can read this article and tell me how wrong he is.

Commentary: Your gas money for a flat screen?

This number should put our skyrocketing gas prices into perspective. To explain: In January 2007, gas prices were at a measly $2.17 a gallon. Since then they've skyrocketed to more than $4.

Considering the average amount of gas used per household, the rise has cost us approximately $1,690. With the average 42-inch plasma screen going for $975, just the extra cash you've forked over for gas in the last year and a half could have bought you 1.733 plasma TVs. And that number just keeps rising.

Of course, there are a lot more serious issues than the "flat screen factor." Gas prices have changed families who were once able to save a little into families breaking even. Families who used to break even now run up credit cards. Families who ran up credit cards now dodge calls from creditors. And families who dodged calls from creditors are now families in full-fledged financial crisis. (Like Ed McMahon, I've heard.)

So, the question is: What do we do?

President Bush and many Republicans argue that increasing domestic production of oil is the right strategy.

Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain has become a recent convert to this philosophy as well; at least as far as offshore drilling is concerned. (His lack of support for drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge [ANWR] is a distinction I can't understand. If we can drill safely without environmental harm under thousands of feet of water, why not on a small patch of ice in the middle of thousands of desolate square miles?)

Those who disagree with drilling here usually cite one of a few standard arguments:

"It's not going to help for another 10 years!"

Here's the thing. America is a long-term plan for me. I don't know where these people plan to be in 10 years, but I plan to be here. This is, of course, the same argument heard around President Clinton's veto of ANWR drilling in 1995. Among other things, if we had started drilling ANWR then, oil would be already flowing. At its peak, ANWR could supply 1.45 million barrels per day, enough to tell Hugo Chavez and all his Venezuelan oil to shove it (with a little change left over).

Of course, Clinton didn't have Chavez to deal with back then. If only he were thinking 10 years into the future.

Maybe not solely, or forever, but it sure can help. With new technology, who knows what we can do over time?

The government estimates that the outer continental shelf alone has 76 billion barrels of oil that are recoverable, and that's just with today's technology.

To put that number into perspective, it's equal to every barrel of oil that we'd import from everywhere outside of North America for 31 years at our current pace. But instead of developing these resources, we throw up endless roadblocks.

If you don't think that pumping more of our own oil would affect prices, ask yourself what would happen if we did the opposite. What if we announced today that we were turning all of our existing pumps off?

"What about the environment?"

This may surprise those who think I'm the pre-eminent murderer of the Earth, but the only real argument against owning our own oil destiny is an environmental one.

Under this theory: High gas prices equal less gas usage, which equals a saved planet. Thomas Friedman, in a recent column, laid it out in an honest fashion: "Now that [gas] is $4 a gallon, the government should at least keep it there, since it is really having the right effect."

He went on to describe Chrysler's promotion that guarantees cheaper gas as "the moral equivalent of tobacco companies offering discounted cigarettes to teenagers." Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, apparently agrees, saying that coal and oil are making us sick along with "ruining our country" and "ruining our world."

If you believe such nonsense, then it's perfectly rational to ignore our ample energy resources. (It's not rational to combine that with complaints about high gas prices, sorry Harry Reid.)

For the rest of us, while visions of the Exxon Valdez may dance through your head, the National Academy of Sciences found that the offshore industry is among the safest industrial activities in the United States.

And please, next time you hear someone complaining about environmental risks of drilling at home, remember this from a 2003 speech from the director of the US Minerals Management Services: "Imports present an environmental risk of spills about 13 times greater than domestic production" and "natural seeps account for 150-175 times more oil in the ocean than outer continental shelf oil and gas operations."

NATURAL SEEPS? Now we know who the real polluter is -- that evil wench -- Mother Nature.

"It's all the speculators"

Speculation has a place in all markets, but as usual our lawmakers and much of the media are focused on the wrong thing. Speculators don't make money when the markets go up, they make it when they are right. The proper question to ask isn't, "How do we stop the speculators?" It is, "What are the speculators speculating about?"

They are trying to predict oil prices in a world they know will have increased demand, with the explosive growth in developing economies like China and India and where the No. 1 oil consumer refuses to take drilling seriously. Which way would you bet oil prices were going?

Think what would happen if our government acted decisively and let the world know that we will fully develop our own energy resources

From oil drilling, to coal to liquids, to shale, to new refineries, to nuclear power, to alternative fuels. What if nothing were off the table and the hurdles were removed?

What if we let the world know that we will not sit idly by and let two-faced friends and stone-faced enemies determine the lifeblood of our civilization?

What if we demonstrated that with real action instead of empty words?

I'd like to find out. It's time for a new flat screen.
 
250biliruben
      ID: 52561217
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 18:34
I may like him, but Soros ain't no economist I would listen to. He's been predicting a huge bust for over 10 years. Third time's the charm, maybe.

I've been to Ephrata. That's not where I would be looking first for my insights into commodities trading.

Just address my points.

If people are speculating about the future direction of prices of oil, wouldn't oil futures be high?

If their was defacto hording be keeping oil in the ground wouldn't production have declined?

Just because Soros or some fool who owns a gas station doesn't understand these simple questions doesn't mean I'm going to ignore the obvious.
 
251Pancho Villa
      ID: 495272016
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 19:28
In the span of 10 minutes I found sources stating there was 1.5 trillion barrels worth of oil in that region. It is waiting to be tapped. The main factor in question is what is the cost economically and environmentally.

Of course you can find sources saying there's 1.5 trillion barrells of oil in that region.
What you don't seem to want to comprehend is that it is not a real number.

Let's say Chicago has a population of 2 million, and I say Chicago has two million taxpayers. Whoops, 400,000 of those are children who don't work, so that leaves us with 1,600,000 taxpayers.
Whoops, there are another 300,000 residents who are either below the poverty line or are on the government dole(or both)who pay no taxes, so now we have 1,300,000 taxpayers in Chicago. Whoops, another 200,000 are either incarcerated, in military service, or are non-working college students. So now we have 1,1000,000 actual taxpayers in Chicago, a real number.

Now, lets see why 1.5 trillion barrels of oil from shale is not a real number, even deleting the all important economic and environmental that you admit are the main factors in question.

The high side estimates take into consideration the entire region, roughly 500 square miles.

Whoops, some of that public land is already leased and producing natural gas and traditional oil wells. Some of the leases are even held by environmentalists to thwart production of shale.

Whoops, some of that land is privately owned by ranchers and hunting outfitters.

Whoops, some of that land is federally protected, like the 210,000 acres of Dinosaur National Monument(of course, with ANWR as a precedent....?)

Whoops, some of that land is steep mountain peeks and steep canyon walls, accessible only by bighorn sheep and marmots. How do I know? In 1970/71, when I lived in Grand Junction, my band used to play occasionally at Buck's Pitcher in Rangely, the only town smack dab in the middle of oil shale country. Back then, the quickest way to Rangely was over Douglas Pass, at the time a dirt road and one of the scariest, steepest, narrowest roads I've ever been on, especially in a snow storm in a '62 Dodge Dart towing a trailer full of band gear. It's since been paved, but the only other route to Rangely is east to Rifle, north to Meeker and back west to Rangely, about an extra 100 miles.

So, in order to get a real number, all things have to be considered. A Rand Corporation study estimates a max of 800 billion recoverable barrels. Even that number would entail huge areas of strip mining, major habitat loss for wildlife, and water. I would estimate maybe half that number, 400 billion barrels over 30-50 years is more realistic.

Colorado water guru

John Orr has this to say:

As to water (I bet you knew that I'd get in a water reference somehow). No company has yet demonstrated a commercial oil shale project. Therefore, it is impossible to quantify how much water will be needed to produce the oil shale. We do know that Shell has been buying water rights for years now and I assume that the other companies involved are also doing this. I've seen estimates of total use by oil shale of 300,000 acre feet per year. Coincidentally, that is pretty close to estimates of the remaining water for the Upper Basin States (Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Wyoming) in the Colorado River Basin under the Colorado River Compact. In other words, oil shale development may take all the water that is left to develop in Colorado. No water for new agriculture, a growing population or other industries such as electrical generation or biofuels. Colorado's population is expected to grow by 3 million over the next few decades and we're hoping to keep agricultural dryups to a minimum since they provide $16 billion a year to the economy.

In situ extraction is the technology that is mentioned most often now. The two projects that I've read about are those by Shell and Schlumberger. The in-situ recovery process heats the shale, kerogen (the type of hydrocarbon in the shale) it is hoped, will then pool, quickly enough to be commercial, at the bottom of the formation, so that it can be pumped to the surface. Shell plans to use electricity to heat the rock while Schlumberger recently purchased radio frequency technology for heating the rock. Both methods require electricity and would require electrical generation nearby to level costs. In addition, Shell plans to contain the kerogen by utilizing freeze walls -- using a refrigeration process requiring electricity to freeze groundwater -- to prevent migration into groundwater. As I said this is highly speculative although Shell has built a pilot project.

I spoke to a Shell representative, Tracy Boyd, this morning. He told me that commercial production is years away. Still to be solved are technical, scientific, environmental and political issues. That's pretty much everything except the market. No one knows what it will cost per gallon delivered to the refinery and how the current oil market will respond. If current oil prices are largely speculative then the market may react to undermine oil shale. I believe that oil shale's chances in the market will improve markedly after we reach peak oil.




 
252Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 20:19
Just address my points.

If people are speculating about the future direction of prices of oil, wouldn't oil futures be high?

If their was defacto hording be keeping oil in the ground wouldn't production have declined?


First, I never said speculators were 100% of the problem.

Isn't it possible that speculators are factoring in a serious economic slowdown thus having an effect on futures?

Production isn't exactly soaring either as the Saudis have told us to "deal with it" and Nigeria is touch and go seemingly every day.

I'm not sure what role the dollar plays into it either. If the dollar were to double in value today, wouldn't a barrel of oil still be $72? I don't see the declination of the dollar matching the rise of a barrel of oil 1 for 1.

Anytime you have ETFs or ETNs for anything, you have speculation. That's what those vehicles are for. When you buy one of those you're having an effect on these prices. I'm not condemning the practice, just pointing out part of the reason.
 
253Boldwin
      ID: 3363215
      Thu, Jul 03, 2008, 21:57
This will be the lesson you'll learn this November. - PD

What we have learned so far is that 'cult of personality' doesn't just work in dictaorships and communism, especially when the media works this hard at it.

Offsetting this is the traditional definition of patriotism [vs Obama's defining it however it suits the purposes], America's obsession with the price of gas, perceptions of age and experience cutting both ways, religion and yes to a lesser degree than trumpetted but yes racism tho even that cuts both ways, and defense and security issues, always a key.
 
254Perm Dude
      ID: 296439
      Fri, Jul 04, 2008, 01:46
You still believe people are supporting Obama because of his personality? And yet are happy to support the Reagan and GWB cults yourself?

I have no idea what you mean by "the traditional definition of patriotism." I suspect you don't either, but I suspect you mean "support the Republican Administration."

Let me just put this out there: Obama has the potential (just the potential right now) to transform his party the way Reagan did for the GOP, by pulling millions of moderates from the other party into the fold of his own party and allowing the much of the rest of the opposition to die a natural death through their own self-inflicted wounds.

This is your teachable moment, Baldwin. And we all know you'll go in kicking and screaming. But American will be better off for having chosen Obama over McCain.
 
255Boldwin
      ID: 3363215
      Fri, Jul 04, 2008, 17:08
If Obama has a set of core beliefs that will change any courses, you and I have no idea what those might be.

With Reagan there was no dispute exactly what he wanted and what his philosophy was and America walked that way with open eyes.
 
256Tree
      ID: 261031
      Fri, Jul 04, 2008, 18:05
have you opted to read the 40 page platform on Obama's website yet?
 
257Perm Dude
      ID: 969411
      Fri, Jul 04, 2008, 18:20
You believe Obama has no core beliefs, and that people who support him are starry-eyed? Is that what it boils down to? Because I don't want to misquote you, Baldwin.
 
258Boldwin
      ID: 3363215
      Fri, Jul 04, 2008, 19:58
Obama is a blank screen against which he lets everyone project their hopes.
 
259Perm Dude
      ID: 420241913
      Fri, Jul 04, 2008, 21:11
So was Reagan. It is called "leadership."

Having you post is like having a mole into the plans and hopes of the unscrupulous far right, who want to hold onto the power of this world no matter what the cost. A couple of weeks ago it was "Obama isn't a natural born citizen!" (among many other things). Now, he's being panned for being--a leader!

Keep posting. It'll help us keep a record of what desperate people will say and do as their ill-used power is taken away from them, all the while they say they are "Christian."
 
260Boldwin
      ID: 3363215
      Fri, Jul 04, 2008, 21:29
You are truly delusional, PD.

Don Quixote had a clearer vision of his adversary than you have of me.
______________

Reagan had a clear vision and a clear voice. Obama doesn't dare express his. It's all a pig in a poke with him.

If he is a leader, where is he leading? You tell me plainly, PD.
 
261Perm Dude
      ID: 54653420
      Fri, Jul 04, 2008, 22:01
Obama is leading us into competence. Surely you don't think Michael Brown, Alberto Gonzalez, Harriet Miers, Don Rumsfeld, John Ashcroft, John Yoo and others were even competent at their jobs?

America, if anything, has the ability to be optimistic despite a bumbling Administration too busy tripping over itself to lead anywhere. Reagan knew this, and exploited it. So, too, will Obama.

I don't know if Obama will be the political force that Reagan was. But he has the potential to be, and has a very similar political climate in which to do it. You can try, with cheap cynicism, to put down Obama's optimism for the country. But that's all Reagan had in 1980. Obama, at least, has the same optimism combined with much more detailed plans.
 
262Tree
      ID: 261031
      Fri, Jul 04, 2008, 22:12
i think Baldwin is genuinely scared of Obama, because, Obama might actually bring about a generational change similar to that of Reagan.

and because he's on the "left", that terrifies Baldwin, because he'd have to acquiesce and acknowledge that he was totally wrong about Obama.

not that he ever would make such an admission.
 
263Perm Dude
      ID: 54653420
      Fri, Jul 04, 2008, 22:13
BTW, this new meme by Baldwin of "Obama has no principles" is, as expected, something recently cooked up and batted around in many places on the right. The whole right wing blogosphere (including its talking heads) can be summed up as vacuous flip-floppers this election.

Next week they'll try out a Michele Obama meme. Then something about Oprah being considered for SecState. Then something else about Obama being an inner city country clubber....
 
264Boldwin
      ID: 386359
      Sat, Jul 05, 2008, 10:17
I never said Obama has no principles.

I said that no one knows what they are. PD least of all.
 
265astade
      ID: 1533770
      Sun, Jul 06, 2008, 17:47
An EIA Report on the estimated production from ANWR. I stumbled upon this today and I think it is a very informative read. It discusses everything from production timelines, to logistics issues, to OPEC limiting its affect on the annual world oil supply.
My only real concern is that the market has been so dynamic over the past year that there have to be some flaws/faults in this 'analysis'.

It has been such a major point of this thread that I thought I'd link it here.
 
266Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Sun, Jul 06, 2008, 18:50
Excellent find. Since the report cites a 1 to 1 effect on the production at ANWR versus the importation of foreign oil, I wonder what the projected effect on the trade deficit would be.
 
267astade
      ID: 1533770
      Sun, Jul 06, 2008, 19:00
Boxman, that's a good question. The report estimates "As a result, the opening of ANWR to Federal oil and natural gas leasing improves the U.S. balance of trade by $135 to $327 billion during the 2018 through 2030 timeframe, based on the world oil prices projected in the AEO2008 reference case..

This large range is based on the low and high estimates for recoverable oil from ANWR. The mean case would result in $202 billion.

Aside from that aspect, I'm a bit worried about the other factors that will affect opening ANWR (or leaving it alone). Improved CAFE standards, OPEC reducing its supply in response, offshore drilling, etc. Indeed a complex equation.
 
268Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Sun, Jul 06, 2008, 19:19
The answer was staring at my face. Yeesch.

Our importing of oil is one part of the trade deficit that I don't think gets enough attention. If the public were made aware of that they would probably support increased domestic exploration and drilling even more.

I'm a bit worried about the other factors that will affect opening ANWR (or leaving it alone). Improved CAFE standards, OPEC reducing its supply in response, offshore drilling, etc. Indeed a complex equation.

Yeah it's a big question. I don't think ANWR will get opened up (or even should get opened up) unless if it's part of a larger plan to get us off of foreign oil. We're at the point now where we're at OPEC's beck and call. What do we have to lose if they reduce supply? If anything that will keep supply level but increase our oil revenue and decrease theirs.
 
269Perm Dude
      ID: 16633611
      Mon, Jul 07, 2008, 00:21
I agree, Boxman. And since literally all economic activity in the Middle East countries depend upon oil sales, they will do what they have to in order to keep their lifeline going.

On a personal note, my wife and I are seriously looking at switching to a geothermal heating & cooling system. We spent almost $8000 last year both for the house & pool (propane fireplace & pool heater, and oil burner for the house). We're looking at about $25K for the whole system, so even if oil & propane prices stay the same we'll have earned this out within a few years.

And we think it'll be a big plus in our area (NE PA) to be able to tell prospective house buyers that their oil & propane costs are zero.
 
270biliruben
      ID: 52561217
      Mon, Jul 07, 2008, 12:46
I was surprised to read that it was Bush Sr. who initiated the moratorium on off-shore drilling.
 
271biliruben
      ID: 52561217
      Mon, Jul 07, 2008, 12:52
... and that it was Republican Slade "Skeletor" Gorton who lead the bipartison charge for higher Cafe standards that was rebuffed by a Dem from Michigan and Jesse Helms.
 
272Boldwin
      ID: 386359
      Mon, Jul 07, 2008, 18:33
... and that it was Republican Slade "Skeletor" Gorton who lead the bipartison charge for higher Cafe standards - Bili

Earning him the undying love of the left.

Why do Republicans never learn you can't win trying to woo the left?

 
273biliruben
      ID: 52561217
      Mon, Jul 07, 2008, 18:41
Well, you'd think he'd be courting the sane of all political stripes, not just the sane on the left.

But if you think sanity a trait exclusive to the left... ;)
 
274Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Tue, Jul 08, 2008, 07:22
A good one from the WSJ.

The Market Is Responding to the Oil Shock
By ROD HUNTER
July 8, 2008


The leaders of the G-8 and of major developing countries will discuss how to respond to energy security and climate change tomorrow. Their first instinct will likely be to propose new regulations. Yet market forces may already be solving these problems, as high oil prices drive a shift away from the polluting, petroleum-fueled internal combustion engine to cleaner forms of transportation.

That's a change worth cheering, even if oil prices are painful in the meantime. Oil is the United States' principal transportation fuel, and the source of a third of the country's greenhouse gas emissions. Other major countries are similarly dependent on oil for transportation. As prices have risen, worries about energy security and long-term climate effects have reached a fever pitch.

History teaches that innovation directed by markets can solve problems such as these. In New York at the end of the 19th century, horses were the main form of transport – and a major source of pollution. As many as 200,000 horses each produced 15 to 35 pounds of manure per day. Manure piles along the roads and in stables produced vast numbers of flies, an important vector for infectious diseases such as typhoid fever. Horses became increasingly expensive, thanks to rising prices for hay, oats and the urban land required for stables.

Initially the automobile wasn't much competition for the horse. Then, around the turn of the century, a series of innovations involving the internal combustion engine and manufacturing (mass production, assembly lines and interchangeable parts) improved performance, reliability and costs. As car prices fell, the horse, the manure and the "typhus fly" were done for.

The same thing may be happening today. This March, American entrepreneur Elon Musk started production of his electric sports car, the Tesla. This car accelerates from 0 to 60 miles per hour in four seconds, tops out at 125 mph, and has a range of 220 miles. The $110,000 price tag limits the Tesla to the wealthy, but mass-production models are in the works. General Motors has committed itself to rolling out its electronic vehicle, the Volt, by 2010. Toyota plans a successor to its popular Prius hybrid.

Recent cost comparisons by Deutsche Bank's auto analysts suggest electric cars will be cheaper to operate than conventional vehicles. Fuel costs per mile for gasoline-fueled cars are $0.27 in Germany, $0.24 in Britain, $0.17 in Brazil and $0.11 in the U.S., with differences driven by local fuel taxes. For electric vehicles, the cost per mile is a mere $0.02. Adding in a battery amortized over the life of the car, the cost is still only $0.10. Batteries will be expensive, at least in early years, but electric cars won't need costly engines or complex transmissions like today's autos.

Cost differentials like those could drive a quick transition to energy-efficient forms of transportation. There would surely be failures along the way – even Henry Ford had a couple of flops and an encounter with bankruptcy before making it big with the Model T. And it would take a while to replace the existing transportation fleet made up of cars that last 15 years.

Nonetheless, incremental effects on oil demand could be powerful. Developed countries would grow less dependent on oil producers, and transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions could ease (even coal-fired power plants are better than millions of gasoline-powered autos). As costs fall, electric vehicles could be adopted in developing countries, amplifying energy security and climate benefits.

The transition would reduce the world's dependence on regimes run by thugs and theocrats. More than 80% of proven reserves are controlled by national oil companies and Russian firms, which don't operate like normal profit-maximizing businesses. (Witness Russian threats to turn off gas supplies to Ukraine and Eastern Europe.) High oil prices have corrupted countries with weak institutions and reinforced misbehavior of international miscreants such as Iran and Venezuela.

Regulation and taxes can of course shape market incentives. But regulation comes with unintended consequences – the more complex the regulation (think cap-and-trade), the more scope for undesired consequences. High oil prices, as unpleasant as they are, are making a lot of alternative energy and transportation technologies look attractive. The petroleum-powered auto has provided affordable independence to millions for a century, but has brought its own problems. Innovation and markets could well send the internal combustion engine and its oil-related worries the way of the horse and buggy.

Mr. Hunter, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, was a senior director at the National Security Council under President George W. Bush, responsible for international economics.
 
275Perm Dude
      ID: 3365087
      Tue, Jul 08, 2008, 09:46
Cap-and-trade schemes has been remarkably successful as a tool toward reducing emissions, precisely because it uses market forces to engage and shape the regulation. I don't know that Mr Hunter realizes this.

And I'm not sure where he gets his 80% figure. He must mean "outside the US."

This isn't his main point however: Innovation and markets could well send the internal combustion engine and its oil-related worries the way of the horse and buggy.

Exactly. Which is why McCain's $300 million prize demonstrates that McCain doesn't know jack about market economics.
 
276Tree
      ID: 3533298
      Tue, Jul 08, 2008, 13:10
what about T. Boone Pickens' plan to help ween ourselves from our foreign oil addiction?
 
277Boxman
      ID: 337352111
      Tue, Jul 08, 2008, 13:30
His heart is in the right place but I wonder where his brain is. The "wind corrider" he's talking about is also Tornado Alley. Now I'm sure someone of his ability probably had a meteorologist go over prior meteorlogical events to determine the probability of tornadoes in given locations along this corridor. What kind of damage do tornadoes do to wind farms? What's the turnaround time to get these things up and running?

Imagine an F5 knocking out electricity to Oklahoma. That would be bad. There's got to be a backup plan somewhere. Maybe power plants run on wind with nat gas possiblities too just in case?

The second thing is what does it take to run a car on natural gas in terms of infrastructure and engine alterations? What would it cost versus a gallon of gas and what is the energy level of nat gas versus gasoline? If it's cheaper would the cost savings be blown on volume because it has less bang? What does it add to the cost of an automobile?

It's a great idea for the "wind corridor" alone if properly implemented. I hope he succeeds. Even if nat gas isn't viable for cars as a serious replacement for gasoline, it would lower the price of nat gas and make people's heating bills more affordable. Think of all the jobs it would create too.

Businesses that use a lot of forklifts would see benefits too.
 
278DWetzel at work
      ID: 278201415
      Tue, Jul 08, 2008, 14:49
I would imagine that a tornado would inflict significant damage on a wind farm--in a limited area. Much as it would any power plant on a direct hit. Which would likely involve power outages on a scale similar to what a typical tornado can create right now (assuming you do still have some overlap & redundancy in the system). I'd think that other power plants would be able to cover the situation in a localized area.
 
279Boxman
      ID: 337352111
      Wed, Jul 09, 2008, 13:14
From my favorite paper (WSJ).

My Plan to Escape the Grip of Foreign Oil
By T. BOONE PICKENS
July 9, 2008; Page A15


One of the benefits of being around a long time is that you get to know a lot about certain things. I'm 80 years old and I've been an oilman for almost 60 years. I've drilled more dry holes and also found more oil than just about anyone in the industry. With all my experience, I've never been as worried about our energy security as I am now. Like many of us, I ignored what was happening. Now our country faces what I believe is the most serious situation since World War II.

The problem, of course, is our growing dependence on foreign oil – it's extreme, it's dangerous, and it threatens the future of our nation.

Let me share a few facts: Each year we import more and more oil. In 1973, the year of the infamous oil embargo, the United States imported about 24% of our oil. In 1990, at the start of the first Gulf War, this had climbed to 42%. Today, we import almost 70% of our oil.

This is a staggering number, particularly for a country that consumes oil the way we do. The U.S. uses nearly a quarter of the world's oil, with just 4% of the population and 3% of the world's reserves. This year, we will spend almost $700 billion on imported oil, which is more than four times the annual cost of our current war in Iraq.

In fact, if we don't do anything about this problem, over the next 10 years we will spend around $10 trillion importing foreign oil. That is $10 trillion leaving the U.S. and going to foreign nations, making it what I certainly believe will be the single largest transfer of wealth in human history.

Why do I believe that our dependence on foreign oil is such a danger to our country? Put simply, our economic engine is now 70% dependent on the energy resources of other countries, their good judgment, and most importantly, their good will toward us. Foreign oil is at the intersection of America's three most important issues: the economy, the environment and our national security. We need an energy plan that maps out how we're going to work our way out of this mess. I think I have such a plan.

Consider this: The world produces about 85 million barrels of oil a day, but global demand now tops 86 million barrels a day. And despite three years of record price increases, world oil production has declined every year since 2005. Meanwhile, the demand for oil will only increase as growing economies in countries like India and China gear up for enhanced oil consumption.

Add to this the fact that in many countries, including China, the government has a great deal of influence over its energy industry, allowing these countries to set strategic direction easily and pay whatever price is needed to secure oil. The U.S. has no similar policy, because we thankfully don't have state-controlled energy companies. But that doesn't mean we can't set goals and develop an energy policy that will overcome our addiction to foreign oil. I have a clear goal in mind with my plan. I want to reduce America's foreign oil imports by more than one-third in the next five to 10 years.

How will we do it? We'll start with wind power. Wind is 100% domestic, it is 100% renewable and it is 100% clean. Did you know that the midsection of this country, that stretch of land that starts in West Texas and reaches all the way up to the border with Canada, is called the "Saudi Arabia of the Wind"? It gets that name because we have the greatest wind reserves in the world. In 2008, the Department of Energy issued a study that stated that the U.S. has the capacity to generate 20% of its electricity supply from wind by 2030. I think we can do this or even more, but we must do it quicker.

My plan calls for taking the energy generated by wind and using it to replace a significant percentage of the natural gas that is now being used to fuel our power plants. Today, natural gas accounts for about 22% of our electricity generation in the U.S. We can use new wind capacity to free up the natural gas for use as a transportation fuel. That would displace more than one-third of our foreign oil imports. Natural gas is the only domestic energy of size that can be used to replace oil used for transportation, and it is abundant in the U.S. It is cheap and it is clean. With eight million natural-gas-powered vehicles on the road world-wide, the technology already exists to rapidly build out fleets of trucks, buses and even cars using natural gas as a fuel. Of these eight million vehicles, the U.S. has a paltry 150,000 right now. We can and should do so much more to build our fleet of natural-gas-powered vehicles.

I believe this plan will be the perfect bridge to the future, affording us the time to develop new technologies and a new perspective on our energy use. In addition to the plan I have proposed, I also want to see us explore all avenues and every energy alternative, from more R&D into batteries and fuel cells to development of solar, ethanol and biomass to more conservation. Drilling in the outer continental shelf should be considered as well, as we need to look at all options, recognizing that there is no silver bullet.

I believe my plan can be accomplished within 10 years if this country takes decisive and bold steps immediately. This plan dramatically reduces our dependence on foreign oil and lowers the cost of transportation. It invests in the heartland, creating thousands of new jobs. It substantially reduces America's carbon footprint and uses existing, proven technology. It will be accomplished solely through private investment with no new consumer or corporate taxes or government regulation. It will build a bridge to the future, giving us the time to develop new technologies.

The future begins as soon as Congress and the president act. The government must mandate the formation of wind and solar transmission corridors, and renew the subsidies for economic and alternative energy development in areas where the wind and sun are abundant. I am also calling for a monthly progress report on the reduction in foreign oil imports, as well as a monthly progress report on the state of development of natural gas vehicles in this country.

We have a golden opportunity in this election year to form bipartisan support for this plan. We have the grit and fortitude to shoulder the responsibility of change when our country's future is at stake, as Americans have proven repeatedly throughout this nation's history.

We need action. Now.

Mr. Pickens is CEO of BP Capital.
 
280Seattle Zen
      ID: 49112418
      Wed, Jul 09, 2008, 13:38
The amount of infrastructure needed to be built to deliver Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is immense. An entire new national pipeline grid would need to be built. Here in SW Washington, there is a plan underway to build a LNG pipeline starting at the Columbia and headed towards Portland. The amount of local opposition is staggering, and the line of politicians willing to make hay with the opposition is long.

That's just the pipelines to get the LNG around the country. Then you have to build enough LNG gas stations to convince people that they can fill up their car wherever they choose to drive. A few stations in the nations largest markets simply won't be enough to convince someone to become the 100th monkey.

I love the wind power idea. I like the idea of building cars that do not use gasoline. I just don't see LNG being used by anyone other than car fleets. I think it is likely that something more efficient, safer, cheaper and easier will come along during the LNG infrastructure implementation that will leave a whole lot of ugly, unused pipelines and refineries.
 
281nerveclinic
      ID: 5047110
      Wed, Jul 09, 2008, 15:24

I don't trust Pickens article as far as I can throw it. The guy runs a hedge fund. Do you think he might be invested in wind?
 
282Boxman
      ID: 337352111
      Wed, Jul 09, 2008, 15:46
I don't trust Pickens article as far as I can throw it. The guy runs a hedge fund. Do you think he might be invested in wind?

What would the credentials of someone have to be in order to trust them?

Yeah this guy is probably in it for the buck. So what? I'm sure Edison and Ford were in it for the dollar too. Does that mean we should uninvent the light bulb and car?

If his idea gets implemented it would be a huge improvement over what we have now. Agree?

I'm sure in my S&P 500 Index Fund in my 401k that GE is in there. They're into wind. Am I full of it too? Are you?
 
283Boxman
      ID: 337352111
      Thu, Jul 10, 2008, 13:59
Another diddy from the WSJ.

A Bipartisan Fix for the Oil Crisis
By JOSEPH PETROWSKI
July 10, 2008; Page A15


As president of Gulf Oil, New England's largest independent petroleum company, and as someone who has spent his life in and around energy markets, I find the tone and substance of the current debate about our energy policy to be profoundly disappointing.

Partisan sides are using a serious crisis to advance political agendas, create political attack sound bites, and launch hearings to "expose" the culprit. Pick your favorite: speculators, Big Oil, environmentalists, China, India, etc.

This is not leadership.

A fundamental misunderstanding of how markets work, and how an effective government can support the private sector, is delaying remedies that will bring down energy prices now. These remedies are to be found in both supply and demand – and both Democrats and Republicans need to demonstrate their command of this fact. Energy is too important a cornerstone of domestic prosperity and international stability to be used as a debating prop.

To Democrats:

Supply must be increased, and that will require more drilling.

We can responsibly drill. The technology to find, drill and recover oil has evolved tremendously, and careless drillers will fear tort lawyers more than government regulators. The claim that the oil companies are sitting on leases and not drilling defies all logic. With oil at $135 per barrel and drilling rigs renting at $300,000 per day, there are no idle rigs anywhere. Furthermore, economic decline – and war induced by basic resource struggles – are greater threats to the environment and American workers than drilling.

Your claim that any oil we drill for now will not come on line for five years or longer – and will thus have no effect on prices today – is incorrect. Unlike past oil crises, where the spot price of oil (that is, today's price) rose more than forward prices, the oil price for delivery in 2012 is trading at $138 per barrel. The market is sending a clear price signal that our problem is in the future – because we do not have the will to curb demand or increase supply.

How many houses would someone invest in if there were a future guarantee that the price would not decline? It is anticipation of ever-increasing prices that fuels the mania.

The oil market, however, has more than anticipation; it has a well-defined forward price signal. This is a key component of the added $25-$40 per barrel in current oil prices. Congressional hearings and "make it go away" legislation will not stop that. Demonstrate the national will to address the supply and demand issues now and it will.

As forward prices decline, watch how quickly the spot price comes down.

To Republicans:

Efficiency is a huge source of new energy. It is scandalous that we have let the mileage standards decrease over the past 25 years. Whether through mandates or tax policy, active government intervention is needed. Republicans have to stop acting as if the "market" is some pristine state of nature that is not subject to active shaping.

The latest farm bill, ethanol and sugar tariffs, the cost of the Iraq war and Bear Stearns all make that reasoning ring hollow. So when some "free marketeers" attack annual biofuel subsidies of $4 billion, fleet mandates, or government research and development expenditures, it is hard not to view this criticism as at best naïveté, and at worst hypocrisy.

Finally, can we stop with the nonsensical talk of "energy independence," the end of petroleum, and postured, ineffectual boycotts of Exxon Mobil? We cannot, should not and will not be independent in a global economy, and petroleum is not going to disappear.

A more accurate metaphor is the global energy market as a giant bath tub where more withdrawals (Chinese and Indian) are being made every day. The only consistent new supply to that tub is coming from periodically unstable and unfriendly places (Nigeria, Russia, Iran, Venezuela).

Our national interest is to add more energy, use it more efficiently, and diversify its source and type. This will serve to lessen the power of any one choke point (geography, nation or source).

Using market mechanisms and the private sector (admit it, Democrats) alongside an engaged, effective and focused government (admit it, Republicans), true leaders can solve this crisis decisively.

Mr. Petrowski is president of Gulf Oil.
 
284Boldwin
      ID: 406201020
      Thu, Jul 10, 2008, 21:46
From another not so disintersted source.

T. Boone Picken's solution to energy problems.
The natural gas Honda Civic GX is rated as the cleanest production vehicle in the world.

According to NGVAmerica, there are more than 7 million NGVs in use worldwide, but only 150,000 of those are in the United States.

Natural gas is significantly less expensive than gasoline or diesel. In places like Utah and Oklahoma, prices are less than $1 a gallon. To see fueling stations and costs in your area, check out cngprices.com.

Natural gas is our country's second largest energy resource and a vital component of our energy supply. 98% of the natural gas used in the United States is from North America. But 70% of our oil is purchased from foreign nations.

Natural gas is one of the cleanest, safest and most useful forms of energy — residentially, commercially and industrially. The natural gas industry has existed in the United States for over 100 years and continues to grow.

Domestic natural gas reserves are twice that of petroleum. And new discoveries of natural gas and ongoing development of renewable biogas are continually adding to existing reserves.

While it is a cheap, effective and versatile fuel, less than 1% of natural gas is currently used for transportation.

Building new wind generation facilities and better utilizing our natural gas resources can replace more than one-third of our foreign oil imports in 10 years. But it will take leadership.
Of course the meme that 'anything that takes ten years isn't worth attempting', isn't helping matters. [see Obama re: ANWR]

 
285Perm Dude
      ID: 17642110
      Fri, Jul 11, 2008, 01:45
Drilling in Alaska isn't worth doing because we need to get off oil. The fact that it'll take ten years to make a difference in gas prices is just a bonus which could stop the pro-drillers from getting all hyped up about it as a solution to today's prices.
 
286Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Fri, Jul 11, 2008, 06:09
Drilling in Alaska isn't worth doing because we need to get off oil.

You probably haven't read most of the posts in this thread dealing with the need for a comprehensive solution. We aren't going to just snap our fingers and be off oil. The poor and middle class will be the last to adopt new technologies because these vehicles tend to be pricier.

The rest of your point has been debunked in this thread.
 
287Tree
      ID: 49623115
      Fri, Jul 11, 2008, 06:33
The poor and middle class will be the last to adopt new technologies because these vehicles tend to be pricier.

there are still alternatives that don't involve new technology, yet still reduce consumption of fuels.

The rest of your point has been debunked in this thread.

Conservative absolutes are cute in that they do try so hard with the "if i say it often enough and loud enough, it'll be true!"
 
288Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Fri, Jul 11, 2008, 07:27
Do you learn nothing Tree? Hasn't pretty much everyone here except for PV and PD called for a comprehensive approach?

Conservative absolutes are cute in that they do try so hard with the "if i say it often enough and loud enough, it'll be true!"

Colbert said that a week ago. Get some new material.
 
289Tree
      ID: 3533298
      Fri, Jul 11, 2008, 08:46
Do you learn nothing Tree? Hasn't pretty much everyone here except for PV and PD called for a comprehensive approach?

absolutely. but that approach shouldn't mean MORE drilling in places. we don't need to continue to drill. we need to spend that money looking elsewhere.

Conservative absolutes are cute in that they do try so hard with the "if i say it often enough and loud enough, it'll be true!"

Colbert said that a week ago. Get some new material.


i don't have cable. never saw it, never heard it. good to know though, that i'm on the pulse of someone like Cobert.

there are still alternatives that don't involve new technology, yet still reduce consumption of fuels.

struck me as not surprising that you chose the personal attack route with a response to my post 287, inside of asking what some of those alternatives might be.

very typical for conservatives and republicans - attack first, ask questions later.

but there are simple solutions to reduce consumption now, instead of drilling for more oil, now.

among them are less gas-gulping vehicles like scooters - this bad boy, for example, goes up to 70 MPH, gets anywhere between 80 to 115 mpg, and is less than 2 grand; mass transit; and gulp, even biking or walking to work when the distance allows.

heck, do away with NASCAR and such, and you'll seriously reduce consumption. i can't even imagine the amount of fuel used on a typical weekend for auto racing in this country, although i'm pretty sure there was a post discussing it.
 
290Perm Dude
      ID: 2767118
      Fri, Jul 11, 2008, 09:08
#285: You probably haven't read most of the posts ...

Blah blah blah. You obviously haven't read my posts to even get the point. Our goal is not to drill in Alaska so that in ten years (hopefully) we'll have a little more oil provided that there are no problems along the way (and a host of other stars align). It is to take us off a dwindling, expensive, dirty resource.

Your goal is to keep oil in the mix, but only domstically-produced oil, and to reach this one needs a "comprehensive policy." I say that is folly. If you don't have as the goal getting off oil entirely then you're doomed to fail, particularly as you start doing more and more desperate things to get more crack. Er, oil.

This is like having to go to the Moon, but deciding to settle for the top of the atmosphere -- since how are the astronauts to breathe otherwise?

Set the goal, rally the people, and let the market (with incentives, if needed) take us there.
 
291Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Fri, Jul 11, 2008, 10:14
Tree: absolutely. but that approach shouldn't mean MORE drilling in places.

Yes it should because we need to increase our domestic supply to stop throwing money at the loonies in the Middle East. It will also take time for full implementation of alternatives and we'll need oil to fill that gap and I would much rather have that oil come from our sources than foreign ones.

heck, do away with NASCAR and such, and you'll seriously reduce consumption.

What if NASCAR decided to run their cars on alternative fuels and researched into new methods? How powerful would that be? That could be a gamer changer.

PD: Our goal is not to drill in Alaska so that in ten years (hopefully) we'll have a little more oil provided that there are no problems along the way (and a host of other stars align). It is to take us off a dwindling, expensive, dirty resource.

We will always need oil if for no better reason than petroleum is used in products other than gasoline. I still reiterate that I'd rather get our supply of it from here.

Your goal is to keep oil in the mix, but only domstically-produced oil, and to reach this one needs a "comprehensive policy." I say that is folly.

I say you're dead wrong. If we can generate our domestic energy via solar, wind, nuclear (not a big fan on nuclear), and natural gas we will reduce our usage of oil. This oil then can supply the less publicized uses of oil that I alluded to earlier in this post.
 
292Pancho Villa
      ID: 47161721
      Fri, Jul 11, 2008, 10:20
Hasn't pretty much everyone here except for PV and PD called for a comprehensive approach?

And what exactly is my approach? You've become an instrument of distortion on this subject, to the point that you refuse to acknowledge certain realities that exist in the world of energy consumption and future energy production on a domestic level.

You've accused me of being an obstructionist for the mere mention of the environmental degradation that would accompany extracting 1 to 2 trillion barrels of oil from shale in the Green River formation. These accusations persist despite my position that shale is a viable resource that should be considered part of the mix, despite my opposition to the Salazar and Udall-led extension of the moratorium on shale production.

You obstinately repeat that there are 1 to 2 trillion barrels of oil in the region because you found that number on a few websites. When I presented evidence that that number wasn't real in terms of recovery, you ignored the evidence. At no time have you presented evidence to counter me, except to say, "These websites claim 1 to 2 trillion barrels of oil."

Let's be clear, Boxman. You are no conservative on this issue. You are a Driil!Drill!Drill! Drill Here! Drill Now! Drill Everywhere! proponent. When environmental concerns are addressed your position is, "All you care about is the environment," a completely distorted and fallacious accusation based on personal bias and faux conservative hyperbole.

The most dangerous and irresponsible part of the current Drill!Drill!Drill! crowd is their attempt to lull the American public into a false sense of security with their claims of energy independence based on wildly speculative estimates of domestic oil reserves that will serve our needs for hundreds of years. I can't think of a better example than your insistence that 1 to 2 trillion barrels of oil from shale realistically exist in the Rockies, without closely examining the ramifications that accompany production at such astronomical levels.

So, who is being comprehensive here? My position is that shale is a viable product that can be brought to market, and with developing technology(key word - developing) that is more adaptable to the major issues of water and reclamation, be an important part of our energy mix for the next 30 to 50 years.
My position is that drilling in ANWR should be accompanied by the realization that allowing the extraction industries into Congressionally protected public lands is a bad precedent whether that land is in a barren and frozen Arctic or Yellowstone National Park. Given our current and future consumption needs, limited access to ANWR should be allowed.

As for offshore drilling, my position is similiar to ANWR. Access to leases should be allowed in areas where proven reserves exist and environmental degradation is minimal.

I favor these policies because it is economically unfeasable to abandon oil as the primary energy source for transportation, plastics manufacturing and other essential products associated with crude, especially in lieu of the fact that there is no national policy to address the future of dwindling supplies and increased demand.

I favor a more cohesive use of natural gas, which is more plentiful, less environmentally damaging to extract and clean to burn.

I favor solar and wind energy on an individual and commercial basis. I would rather subsidize these renewable industries than corn, which takes water and energy to produce.

I favor building a pipeline to drain Lake Michigan into Utah Lake, thereby solving the West's critical water problems, the ones you haven't researched and refuse to admit exist.

Is that comprehensive enough for you?




 
293boikin
      ID: 532592112
      Fri, Jul 11, 2008, 11:02
I have an idea lets just invade Canada and take there oil...
 
294Pancho Villa
      ID: 495272016
      Sat, Jul 12, 2008, 22:55
Hugh Hewitt presents one of the most dishonest columns yet concerning oil.

The economic mess the country confronts can be laid at the feet of Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. The Don’t Drill Democrats are forcing deindustrialization through depression brought about by soaring energy costs.....

Tremors continue to course through Wall Street as investors shunned mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and yesterday worried Congressmen throw questions at the Fed Chairman and the secretary of the Treasury: How bad can it get?

The answer is very bad indeed. We may be headed for another big bailout of a financial institution, a crisis that could have been avoided had the Congress acted first on energy.


While I think that the Republican strategy to castigate Democrats for opposition to drilling is a smart one, and that even the false perception that we're going to drill our way into energy independence in the near future might have a positive, if temporary, effect on the stock market, these statements are just plain fairy tales.

Disregarding the current domestic production, and the current leases going unused by domestic producers, there are three basic areas of contention on this subject - ANWR, offshore drilling and oil shale.

When discussing these areas of contention, the following must be considered.

1. The Republican candidate for president has and continues to oppose drilling in ANWR.

2. Offshore oil drilling moratorium(Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, and limited parts of Alaska excepted) was orderd by Republican president George H W Bush in June 1990. Republican governors Jeb Bush and Charlie Crist of Florida and Republican governor Arnold Schwarzenegger have opposed drilling of their coasts.

3. As for oil shale, much has been covered in this thread. For those paying attention, or not just spewing reactionary fantasies, the bottom line is that the technology is not currently up to speed for any type of large scale commercial production.

The main culprit for this lagging of technology isRonald Reagan.

President Reagan's recent signing of a bill abolishing the U.S. Synthetic Fuels Corp. (SFC) gives the agency 120 days to pack up its files, to lay off its 130 employees and to transfer the administration of its five financial awards to the Department of the Treasury. By May the Synfuels Corp. will be history.

Launched by President Carter with fanfare in 1980, SFC's mission was to shepherd in a new industry -- one that would tap unconventional resources like coal, tar sands, oil shale and heavy crude to meet future U.S. oil and natural gas needs.

In fact, President Reagan's support for the program "was always weak at best," he says, and the unlikely prospect that industry would reap any immediate financial benefits garnered it only lukewarm support there.


More on the subject on this forum.

I worked at the U.S. Department of Energy's Laramie Energy Technology Center (LETC) as part of the Synthetic Fuels Corporation task force in the late 1970s & early 80s, & before that as a senior engineer for Talley Industries. Our goal was to prove that in-situ processing of oil shale & tar sand was both technologically & economically feasible. We proved both, based on the price of oil just above $35/barrel.

Hydraulically fracturing the oil shale was the trick, along with maintaining an adequate void volume using sand as a proppant so that in-situ combustion could occur. We were able to produce sufficient oil from even mid-grade shale to make the process easily viable, & were even working on a mine-mouth power-generation plant. The last problem we were working on was how to control the carbon-hydrogen stoichiometry while removing the trace heavy metals, when we were shut down by then-President Reagan.

It was the DOE's responsibility to prove that commercialization was a profitable idea, & we worked closely with Shell, Chevron, & several other oil producers. It was just a very bad decision on the part of the feds to close us down that keeps us from having a lot less problems with foreign oil today.


Of course this process was on a very small scale and didn't address the huge amounts of water and land reclamation necessary for large commercial production. The bottom line is that Carter had the forward thinking on domestic energy production and Reagan pulled the plug.

And this statement has me completely confused.

We may be headed for another big bailout of a financial institution, a crisis that could have been avoided had the Congress acted first on energy.

Could someone please explain the logic of this accusation, because it escapes me.




 
295Boldwin
      ID: 406201020
      Sun, Jul 13, 2008, 09:07
1) Blaming Reagan ignores the fact that production would be happening right now if congress would stop obstruction and write rules for oil shale exploitation. It's not Reagan but congreess preventing it from happening. You could accuse Reagan of not having advanced the science faster but that isn't the roadblock.

2) I believe the author is claiming the go go real estate market was killed by the explosion of gasoline prices dragging the economy down. While all bubbles have to burst, real estate is as close to a counter-example to that rule as you will ever find and there is no doubt gasoline prices are having a profound effect on all aspects of the economy.
 
296Boldwin
      ID: 406201020
      Sun, Jul 13, 2008, 09:11
Furthermore shifting the burden for R&D from government to private industry isn't a bad thing. You see the government's responsibilty to invent oil shale recovery where exactly in the constitution?
 
297Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Sun, Jul 13, 2008, 09:17
Carter had the forward thinking

How do you take anything seriously that has the phrases "Carter" and "forward thinking" or even "Carter" and "thinking" in the same sentence?

Does blaming Reagan mean that Bush I, Clinton and W couldn't think for themselves on the issue?

How is the energy crisis any one President's fault?

And this statement has me completely confused.

We may be headed for another big bailout of a financial institution, a crisis that could have been avoided had the Congress acted first on energy.

Could someone please explain the logic of this accusation, because it escapes me.


My take on this is that Congress is incapable of doing more than one thing at a time. You can easily convince me that they can't even do one thing at a time.
 
298Pancho Villa
      ID: 495272016
      Sun, Jul 13, 2008, 10:58
Blaming Reagan ignores the fact that production would be happening right now if congress would stop obstruction and write rules for oil shale exploitation

And you ignore the fact that the reason there isn't oil shale exploitation is that the technology isn't developed to the point where it is economically and environmentally feasable.

I believe the author is claiming the go go real estate market was killed by the explosion of gasoline prices dragging the economy down.

I know what he's claiming, and it's BS. The go go real estate market was killed years ago by irresponsible lending practices and bloated evaluations, when gas prices were half of what they are now.

How do you take anything seriously that has the phrases "Carter" and "forward thinking" or even "Carter" and "thinking" in the same sentence?

How do you deny facts and think meaningless quips equates to serious thinking?

Does blaming Reagan mean that Bush I, Clinton and W couldn't think for themselves on the issue?

How is the energy crisis any one President's fault?


But you're OK that Hewitt is not only saying that the energy crisis is the fault of Obama, Reid and Pelosi but all the associated economic woes as well, including the credit crisis, which I pointed out earlier in this post, pre-dated the explosion in gas prices by several years?

And where did I say the energy crisis is one president's fault? I merely pointed out that the current crop of reactionaries(masquerading as conservatives - you can include yourself and Baldwin if you wish)are quick to solely blame Democrats for the current cost of gas while ignoring certain historical facts and actions by Republicans that must be included in the equation.

Furthermore shifting the burden for R&D from government to private industry isn't a bad thing. You see the government's responsibilty to invent oil shale recovery where exactly in the constitution?

I can't find subsidizing the Alaska pipeline in the constitution either. Are you for eliminating all federal subsidies to energy conglomerates? I also can't find in the constitution anything that prohibits partnerships between private and government entities. Perhaps we should revisit using public funds for private entities like Blackwater. Where in the constitution is it the government's responsibility to hire private security, at bloated costs, in foreign countries to kill their citizens with impunity?








 
299Pancho Villa
      ID: 495272016
      Sun, Jul 13, 2008, 11:28
Oh the irony.

NASCAR losing fans to $4 gas

Now, after gas prices have increased 39 percent in the past year and pushed the cost of filling a recreational vehicle tank as high as $500, more fans are staying home.

Ticket revenue at Speedway Motorsports Inc.'s Las Vegas, Atlanta and Bristol, Tenn., tracks declined 5.1 percent in the first quarter.
Race teams are also battling increased costs for diesel and jet fuel, the two highest-priced transport fuels. Semi-trailers, or haulers, move racecars to tracks across the country. Most teams also provide diesel-powered motor coaches for drivers, owners and sponsors. The top teams use private jets and helicopters to ferry personnel to the tracks.


Stop it. You're breaking my heart.
 
300Boldwin
      ID: 406201020
      Sun, Jul 13, 2008, 13:46
PV

1} Ahh, but there is a pretty form of obstructionism. Sure we'll exploit our massive advantage of holding such a large percentage of the world's oil shales...as soon as the process is perfect. E-mail that off to Reid and Pelosi so they can further their decades of Democrat resistance to energy development.

2) I'd agree the problem was interest only loans and liar loans, but the timing of the bubble burst could well be attributed to the gasoline price crisis, I dunno.

3) I'll not step on Boxman's defense of his own points by offering my own just yet.
quick to solely blame Democrats for the current cost of gas while ignoring certain historical facts and actions by Republicans that must be included in the equation.
It is fashionable among Republicans to magnanimously share in equal blame for things that are primarily Democrat fault.

This is a mistake from which I am immune.

You may find Republicans guilty of NIMBY but on the whole resistance to Nuke plants and ANWR and new refineries and the entire panopoly of footdragging the energy solution has been primarily a Democrat obsession.
 
301Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Sun, Jul 13, 2008, 14:33
But you're OK that Hewitt is not only saying that the energy crisis is the fault of Obama, Reid and Pelosi but all the associated economic woes as well, including the credit crisis, which I pointed out earlier in this post, pre-dated the explosion in gas prices by several years?

Hewitt's statement about "The economic mess the country confronts can be laid at the feet of Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid." isn't wholly inaccurate. They are the triumverate in charge right now and the country is sprinting towards the out house. If you guys want to run the show then you've got to be willing to take the heat that comes with that.

Where he's wrong is that we've had decades to correct the energy problem and A LOT of people missed the ball either deliberately or via ignorance of the severity of the problem.

If Congress took adequate action to handle either the housing, credit, or oil crisis it would lessen the impact of the three. If gas is cheaper, it's easier to afford the house. If people have lower interest rates on their mortgages and certain predatory circumstances were corrected then it's easier to afford gas.

Where Republicans have been right is that had we started drilling in ANWR when W first said so (8 years ago IIRC) that additional supply would be reflected into the price of a barrel of oil which is forward looking by 5(?) years into the future for delivery.

The Democratic Party is the party that touts itself on being for the little guy. A party for the little guy should be outraged about gas prices and foreclosures. What significant work have they done since they took over Congress indicates that?
 
302Boldwin
      ID: 406201020
      Sun, Jul 13, 2008, 14:43
Well they've ignored the fact that 'the little guy' now pays twice as much tax for each gallon of gas. That's significant.

They can't get elected if they claim they are progressives. Maybe they should admit they are regressives and see how that polls.
 
303Perm Dude
      ID: 39632128
      Sun, Jul 13, 2008, 15:09
Barack Obama isn't in charge, Box. Hewitt is obviously pre-writing his material for next year. No need to let facts get in the way.

 
304Pancho Villa
      ID: 495272016
      Sun, Jul 13, 2008, 16:29
the entire panopoly of footdragging the energy solution has been primarily a Democrat obsession.

That might be a true statement if your idea of the energy solution is to continue on a course that is unsustainable for future generations. As usual, nowhere in any of your posts does the word "conserve" appear, nor have you ever expressed the least interest in addressing a more responsible use of existing resources.

Your fixation on shale as the panacea to future needs..

Sure we'll exploit our massive advantage of holding such a large percentage of the world's oil shales...as soon as the process is perfect

is based on a myth perpetrated by the reactionaries you worship.

Let me walk you through this one more time.

Claims of 1.5 to 2 trillion barrels of oil in the Green River formation are a lie. These estimates refer to resources, not reserves, which refers to recoverable amounts.

72% of these resources are public lands, so either subtract 28% or whatever percentage of private land you think realistic.

Thousands of acres are already leased and producing traditional crude and natural gas. Last year, Utah produced 15.7 million barrels of crude oil and 303.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas—enough to heat approximately four million homes. That doesn't include the production from Colorado and Wyoming, but I can assure you that driving I-80 between Rock Springs and Laramie, you'll see energy extraction activity most of the way, including the Sinclair refinery just east of Rawlins. What you won't see is any water resources of any size, as the Green River passes south under the interstate just west of Rock Springs in, you guessed it, Green River, Wyoming, not to be confused with Green River, Utah or wherever the town Creedence Clearwater wrote about.
And in
Colorado

The total value of Colorado's oil & natural gas production in 2004 was $6.6 billion; a 35% increase over the 2003 value of $4.9 billion. For the second consecutive year, natural gas production in Colorado has exceeded 1 trillion cubic feet. In 2004 Colorado had proven crude oil reserves of 217 million barrels, including over 60,000 barrels per/day in physical production. Nearly every major producer and pipeline company is active within the State of Colorado; they include Amoco, Chevron, and Unocal among others.

That was 2004. I guarantee you the amount of land leased and the product extracted has increased substantially in past 4 years.

Reactionary extraction proponents never mention these easily obtained figures. They never subtract these already leased and producing acres in their wildly speculative estimates. Instead, it seems that they propose we take the remaining public acres and immediately begin large scale shale production, even though the current technology involves strip mining, the refining process is undeveloped on any commercial scale, the water resources aren't available for commercial production, and the major energy companies aren't chomping at the bit to make the necessary investment to plunge headlong into full scale production anyway.
Shell has invested a measly 50 million on their experimental facility, a pittance in the world of high level energy production.

So, in order to produce any real significant numbers, every square inch of land within the Green River formation would have to be mined or drilled that isn't either private or currently producing crude or natural gas. In other words, the complete degradation of millions of acres of a three state area of the Rocky Mountains as well as the real possibility of permanent damage to the Colorado River eco-system, on which tens of millions of Americans rely.

Not gonna happen. Shale can be a part of the mix as the technology advances, but never on the level the extraction promoters claim.

And even if there were say 20 to 30 years worth of oil in those rocks at current domestic use levels, what then? When do we start promoting conservation and more responsible use of what is a precious and increasingly rare resource? When do we admit that there will need to be a painful conversion from a petroleum based economy? When will you start taking an honest approach instead of using our energy future as a political hatchet to denounce your perceived opponents?

 
305Pancho Villa
      ID: 495272016
      Sun, Jul 13, 2008, 16:53
Where Republicans have been right is that had we started drilling in ANWR when W first said so (8 years ago IIRC) that additional supply would be reflected into the price of a barrel of oil which is forward looking by 5(?) years into the future for delivery.

You're looking more and more like a partisan hack. I refer you to post #294

Launched by President Carter with fanfare in 1980, SFC's mission was to shepherd in a new industry -- one that would tap unconventional resources like coal, tar sands, oil shale and heavy crude to meet future U.S. oil and natural gas needs.

We're to take you seriously when you derided this mission, solely because it was the handiwork of a politician you hate? Does your hypocrisy know no bounds?



 
306Pancho Villa
      ID: 495272016
      Sun, Jul 13, 2008, 16:57
One more thing before I go deplete some precious water resources by playing golf.

had we started drilling in ANWR when W first said so (8 years ago IIRC) that additional supply would be reflected into the price of a barrel of oil

Purely a guess and impossible to prove, so it's a non-statement.

 
307Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Sun, Jul 13, 2008, 17:00
You're looking more and more like a partisan hack.

Then you haven't been paying attention.

I'm not going to repeat myself to you ad nauseum about the fact that everyone has a hand screwing this up, including environMENTALists like you.

Let me know when you have something new.

I suggest you take a look at Fortune Magazine this month because the environMENTALists are having a split personality complex because even when industry makes strides towards serious alternative energy reform you people complain about the desert tortoise.
 
308Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Sun, Jul 13, 2008, 17:01
Purely a guess and impossible to prove, so it's a non-statement.

*Shaking head.*
 
309Pancho Villa
      ID: 495272016
      Sun, Jul 13, 2008, 22:55
Please point out where I have complained about the desert tortoise.

I've responded to actual statements of yours, not things that "you people" have said. In the future please respond to actual things I say, since there are no "you people" who speak for me.
 
310boikin
      ID: 532592112
      Mon, Jul 14, 2008, 11:50
I found this article randomly today from 1985 about alternative energy sources i thought it was king of interesting and relative. Though the oil price change they are talking about is from $2 to $30 a barrel. One interesting note is that it says that earths climate is getting colder, i am not sure if that part would be seen the same now.

alternate energy
 
311Boldwin
      ID: 406201020
      Wed, Jul 16, 2008, 03:20
One interesting note is that it says that earths climate is getting colder, i am not sure if that part would be seen the same now.


It has been getting colder for the last 10 years. However that piece was refering to an earlier period when Newsweek was running '
coming ice age' scare stories becase the earth was cooling for a stretch then too.
 
312CanadianHack
      ID: 747218
      Wed, Jul 16, 2008, 03:58
As usual Baldwin's reality is distorted. His claim is wrong but easy to understand. All we have to do to see his claim is look on the wikipedia page for global warming here . There is a graph of the average global temperature here . Clearly from looking at the graph the average global temperature is rising over the time period for which this data exists (and data exists in other forms for longer time periods).

Now the single highest annual average temperature occured in 1998. Since it has never been as hot as 1998 since 1998 dishonest Baldwin can claim we have benn "cooling" for the last 10 years. A simple look at the data will tell you that the last 7 years have been 7 of the 8 hottest years on reacord (along with 1998). In fact the 10 hottest years on record are 1995 or more recent.
 
313CanadianHack
      ID: 747218
      Wed, Jul 16, 2008, 03:59
Sorry link to the global warming page is wrong. It should be this
 
314Tree
      ID: 1866165
      Wed, Jul 16, 2008, 06:13
it wouldn't surprise me to know that it appeared the earth was cooling.

after all, we do have periodic ice ages every few hundred years, and we have, through the planet's existence.

when "washington crossed the delaware", there's a reason there was ice through the painting. we *should* be in another mini ice age now, but the fact we're not is directly tied to global warming.
 
315Boldwin
      ID: 406201020
      Wed, Jul 16, 2008, 07:35
Hack

I've proven the manmade Global Warming a hoax in so many threads I just don't feel like another excersize in redundancy.
 
316CanadianHack
      ID: 747218
      Wed, Jul 16, 2008, 07:56
Baldwin

You have done no such thing. I have read those threads and grew tired of it so today I decided to expose the specific lies you were spouting today.
 
317Tree
      ID: 3533298
      Wed, Jul 16, 2008, 08:16
STOP THE PRESSES!!!!!!!!

Baldwin has proven that manmade Global Warming is a hoax!?!?!?

holy crap, i must have missed that coverage by every major newspaper, magazine, television network, and town crier.

MSM or not, if someone were to prove that Global Warming was a hoax, it would be major, major news.

Baldwin - and i do mean this sincerely - it's outlandish statements like that that make many people roll their eyes at a lot of what you say.

(this is the part where i wait for the demeaning insult, despite my offer of constructive criticism.)
 
318boikin
      ID: 532592112
      Wed, Jul 16, 2008, 09:08
after all, we do have periodic ice ages every few hundred years, and we have, through the planet's existence.

when "washington crossed the delaware", there's a reason there was ice through the painting. we *should* be in another mini ice age now, but the fact we're not is directly tied to global warming.


Tree I would like to see where you got your historical ice age data from and you uncanny ability to predict when the next one will be. In general ice ages appear on the scales of thousands of years not hundreds of years. there was what was known as a mini ice age that 100's years ago, this however did not constitute an ice age and would probably indicate that the earth should be warming.
 
319Boldwin
      ID: 406201020
      Wed, Jul 16, 2008, 09:23
The founder of the weather channel has talked to the best people in the field and says it's a UN driven, grant driven hoax.

If you are a globalist and want to see the UN running the world, you are going to swear up and down there is a global warming crisis.

If you want handout just do a study 'proving' some tenuous link to global warming. Your grant will be approved.

If you are a sheep jumping on every bandwagon you will swear up and down global warming has you at death's door.
 
320CanadianHack
      ID: 747218
      Wed, Jul 16, 2008, 09:39
Either you are misreporting facts Baldwin or the "founder of the weather channel" has an axe to grind that is unrelated to the facts.

A simple look at the data will tell you that the last 7 years have been 7 of the 8 hottest years on record (along with 1998). In fact the 10 hottest years on record are 1995 or more recent. That alone is cause for alarm. The earth is heating up. That is fact.
 
321Tree
      ID: 3533298
      Wed, Jul 16, 2008, 10:29
The founder of the weather channel has talked to the best people in the field and says it's a UN driven, grant driven hoax.

a weatherman (by the way, who is no longer involved with the weather channel) - someone who is paid well despite being wrong often - claims that Global Warming is a hoax.

am i to take this seriously? because a weatherman says it's a hoax?

the only sheep here is you, willing to follow every loon out there preaching "libural conspiriacy!"

 
322Boxman
      ID: 337352111
      Wed, Jul 16, 2008, 11:17
Tree: You took an interest in T. Boone Pickens' plan a little bit ago. Did you go to his site pickensplan.com and read up on it?

I'm curious about your take.
 
323boikin
      ID: 532592112
      Wed, Jul 16, 2008, 11:56
I like how hidden in his plan is the pushing of natural gas, which i have nothing against, though i am sure he profit nicely from it.
 
324Perm Dude
      ID: 53622158
      Wed, Jul 16, 2008, 12:00
Nothing wrong with that.

I haven't read the plan, but I believe he's looking at the same kind of from-shale production that I mentioned earlier for natural gas. We've got all sorts of Texas companies up here in PA now, using hydrofracture technology to free up all sorts of previously-unrecoverable natural gas.
 
325Boldwin
      ID: 406201020
      Wed, Jul 16, 2008, 14:33
I refer lurkers to previous GW threads where this has been hashed out pretty fully.
 
326CanadianHack
      ID: 21937272
      Wed, Jul 16, 2008, 15:14
And it has also been either refuted or thoughourly laughed at delusional.

A simple look at the data will tell you that the last 7 years have been 7 of the 8 hottest years on record (along with 1998). In fact the 10 hottest years on record are 1995 or more recent. That alone is cause for alarm. The earth is heating up. That is fact.
 
327boikin
      ID: 532592112
      Wed, Jul 16, 2008, 15:37
it is only fact in comparison to data that we have, it was clearly much hotter during the dinosaurs. the only thing that is fact is "that 7 years have been 7 of the 8 hottest years on record". if there is a huge volcanic eruption this year and the atmospheric temperature drops dramatically over the next couple years it also does not mean the earth is cooling. It reality we should not be arguing on whether or the earth is warming and instead be thinking ok this is bad and this bad and figure out ways to fix it. If you have a fever you don't argue about whether or not you have fever you argue about why you are sick.

Fore example if CO2 is bad then why are we destroying rain forests for crop production, why are polluting the seas killing off the algae that removes the C02 from the atmosphere.
 
328Perm Dude
      ID: 386551611
      Wed, Jul 16, 2008, 15:50
We don't need to prove whether global warming exists to see the effects of pollution based upon current energy use. When ash is falling about your head you don't stop and wonder if there is an accompanying heat blast.

The evidence seems to point to global warming as being a fact, and mankind's activities as contributing to that warming. Scientists don't need to be unanimous on the point (in fact, on nearly everything we accept as "fact" there is no unanimous agreement among the experts).

But conservatives don't have to accept that global warming is a fact in order to start doing things which make for a better stewardship of the planet--a hallmark of conservativism for decades.
 
329J-Bar
      ID: 446141519
      Wed, Jul 16, 2008, 22:50
there is the whole debate - at what level do you take the stewardship.
 
330Perm Dude
      ID: 386551611
      Wed, Jul 16, 2008, 23:14
Well, that's what it used to be. Nowadays conservatives are too busy saying what they are against than what they are for.

The natural philosophy behind conservativism is a philosophy of doubt--the belief in a natural caution because we can't know all possible outcomes (nor do we want to try to know all outcomes!). But since the thecon-conservative coalition began taking over the GOP, doubt has been purged from the GOP. Who needs doubt when God is driving?

Hopefully the consevatives will be back -- but right now many conservatives strains are seen most clearly in a guy like Obama, ironically, particularly in the areas of stewardship and personal responsibility.
 
331Boxman
      ID: 337352111
      Wed, Jul 30, 2008, 13:27
Interesting Report on Nat Gas from CNBC
 
332Boxman
      ID: 337352111
      Tue, Aug 12, 2008, 11:34
Going beyond oil

Are the Saudis getting ready for a world less dependent on them?
 
333boikin
      ID: 532592112
      Tue, Aug 12, 2008, 11:40
This can only be seen as a good thing.
 
334Boldwin
      ID: 176322815
      Tue, Aug 12, 2008, 15:21
but right now many conservatives strains are seen most clearly in a guy like Obama, ironically, particularly in the areas of stewardship and personal responsibility. - PD

Very amusing. And useful perhaps. Maybe there are people simple enuff to buy that line somewhere. Failing that there's always the contortion olympics for you to enter.

"Yeah yeah, dat Obama, why he's really a conservative if ya turns yer head dis way...yeah yeah, dat's da ticket."
 
335Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Tue, Aug 12, 2008, 20:33
but right now many conservatives strains are seen most clearly in a guy like Obama, ironically, particularly in the areas of stewardship and personal responsibility.

Is this a comparative statement against McCain or an observatory comment about Obama?
 
336Madman
      ID: 230542010
      Thu, Aug 14, 2008, 09:43
But conservatives don't have to accept that global warming is a fact in order to start doing things which make for a better stewardship of the planet--a hallmark of conservativism for decades. Talk to Al Gore ... he's the one driving to speeches in a fleet of gas guzzling Lincoln Towncars.

Nowadays conservatives are too busy saying what they are against than what they are for.

I'm *for* personal responsibility. National energy strategies should be limited to very occassionally smoothing transitions and education with a very limited additional role for basic research. I'm *for* the conservation measures taken by the American people over the last 6 months. The market response, although painful, has been quite effective. I'm *for* homeowners in PA/NY putting in geothermal, and car owners in AR buying hybrids.

I'm also *for* national security and *for* humanity. I'm *for* environmentalism, but only insofar as they don't conflict with those goals. This is why one reason why I'm *for* developing our own energy reserves. A national energy plan designed around austerity rather than development empowers oil rich nations who hold less noble goals, including Russia, Venezuela, etc.

Any negative statement made by conservatives could be rephrased as a positive one. The statement that "I'm against exploiting our strategic reserves for short-term political gain" can be rephrased as "I'm *for* retaining our strategic reserves for true emergencies and *for* politicians willing to put their country before themselves."
 
337Seattle Zen
      Leader
      ID: 055343019
      Thu, Aug 14, 2008, 10:44
Madman, nice floor exercise in the Semantics Olympics.

I'm glad you are for the market response to the massive increase in gasoline prices. People drove less for the first time in almost 30 years. This sort of "conservation" is, of course, not sustainable. First, driving less is like holding your breath, you can hold off for just a little bit. There has been no significant change in our infrastructure. And with the prices coming down, there goes the incentive to change the infrastructure and the only incentive people had to drive less. But you are against doing anything that would make a fundamental change such as keeping the price of gas up through taxes or massive transportation changes. Being *for* market responses is nothing more than saying you are *against* doing ANYTHING. You may be *for* homeowners putting in geothermal or car buyers going hybrid, you are *against* ANYTHING that would give an incentive to encourage more people to join them.

You may be *for* a neo-conservative notion of national security, but you certainly are NOT *for* humanity. As the global climate changes rapidly, many places in the world will flood, displacing millions in places like Bangladesh. Other places will become desert, causing strife in places like Darfur. Inhabited islands in the ocean will sink below the rising water. You may have his displaced notion that burning oil and coal at ever increasing rates is being *for* American humanity as it increases our GDP, but that's because you have the dim, archaic view that our economy can not and should not ever be encouraged to change. Every single businessman should be left alone to create power to fuel his business, emit whatever you want, just create jobs. Detroit builds big gas wasting cars, that must be encouraged because that is what we want. You are *against* even suggesting the market may be slow to respond to change and that a national policy may have helped prevent this with CAFE standards.

Any negative statement made by conservatives could be rephrased as a positive one.

Here's one that cannot be rephrased. "The short sighted laise fair energy policies of the last 28 years have bitten us in the ass".
 
338boikin
      ID: 532592112
      Thu, Aug 14, 2008, 11:12
Other places will become desert, causing strife in places like Darfur. to bad the sudan has been a desert longer than 5 years. nice way to confuse the situation.

Detroit builds big gas wasting cars, that must be encouraged because that is what we want. you say this then post in the Marijuana thread arguing for less regulation, so sometimes you are for what we want and sometimes you are not?

Every single businessman should be left alone to create power to fuel his business, emit whatever you want, just create jobs. fine you disagree with this, fine. But you will probably be the first one upset when lack of employment causes misery. we can not have it all, the question you have to ask is do you want misery now or misery later.

"The short sighted laise fair energy policies of the last 28 years have bitten us in the ass". ?????
 
339Pancho Villa
      ID: 47161721
      Thu, Aug 14, 2008, 11:18
While Republicans were grandstanding about Congress adjourning without voting on a Drill Now, Drill Everywhere platform, Democrats should have been castigating Republicans for their own brand of obstructionism.

It was only five days earlier, July 30, that the Senate was voting for the eighth time in the past year on a broad, vitally important bill - S. 3335 - that would have extended the investment tax credits for installing solar energy and the production tax credits for building wind turbines and other energy-efficiency systems.
Both the wind and solar industries depend on these credits - which expire in December - to scale their businesses and become competitive with coal, oil and natural gas. Unlike offshore drilling, these credits could have an immediate impact on America's energy profile.

The fact that Congress has failed eight times to renew them is largely because of a hard core of Republican senators who either don't want to give Democrats such a victory in an election year or simply don't believe in renewable energy.
What impact does this have? In the solar industry today there is a rush to finish any project that would be up and running by Dec. 31 - when the credits expire - and most everything beyond that is now on hold. Consider the Solana concentrated solar power plant, 70 miles southwest of Phoenix in McCain's home state. It is the biggest proposed concentrating solar energy project ever. The farsighted local utility is ready to buy its power.
But because of the Senate's refusal to extend the solar tax credits, ''we cannot get our bank financing,'' said Fred Morse, a senior adviser for the American operations of Abengoa Solar, which is building the project. ''Without the credits, the numbers don't work.'' Some 2,000 construction jobs are on hold.
Roger Efird is president of Suntech America, a major Chinese-owned solar panel maker that actually wants to build a new factory in America. They've been scouting the country for sites and several governors have been courting them. But Efird told me that when the solar credits failed to pass the Senate, his boss told him: ''Don't set up any more meetings with governors. It makes absolutely no sense to do this if we don't have stability in the incentive programs.''
One of the biggest canards peddled by Big Oil is that, ''Sure, we'll need wind and solar energy, but it's just not cost effective yet.'' They've been saying that for 30 years. What these tax credits are designed to do is to stimulate investments by many players in solar and wind so these technologies can quickly move down the learning curve and become competitive with coal and oil, which is why some people are trying to block them.
As Richard K. Lester, an energy-innovation expert at MIT, notes, ''The best chance we have - perhaps the only chance'' of addressing the combined challenges of energy supply and demand, climate change and energy security ''is to accelerate the introduction of new technologies for energy supply and use and deploy them on a very large scale.''

 
340Boldwin
      ID: 176322815
      Thu, Aug 14, 2008, 14:55
The factory isn't even built yet. Why I bet it would take ten years for that energy to come online.
 
341boikin
      ID: 532592112
      Thu, Aug 14, 2008, 15:12
My only question is why are they planning solar energy plant that requires tax credits to be feasible? why not invest in research that will make them feasible without tax credits. I am all in favor of tax credits for alternative energy, but you should not be counting on them make your project feasible. It is just like the big development in town that relied on tax credits get funding then the market changes and they go under because they had to many exceptions to make the numbers work. so you end up with vacant blocks.
 
342sarge33rd
      ID: 99331714
      Thu, Aug 14, 2008, 15:30
like the tax abatements given to manufacturers when they build their plant in YOUR town? Tax incentives, are how the govt can support initiatives into new technologies. Initial investment requirements are obscene, expansion is prohibitive and the raw cost until the useage is commonplace makes it cost-prohibitive to the consumer. Tax incentives, reduce all of those costs and allow for a new technology to establish a foothold. Sometimes, taxes get used for good things. This would be one of those 'sometimes' and one of those "things".
 
343boikin
      ID: 532592112
      Thu, Aug 14, 2008, 15:36
like the tax abatements given to manufacturers when they build their plant in YOUR town? i am surprise that you would say this sarge given you hate for corporate greed. In general i am against towns giving business tax breaks to move there, it unfair to the companies that moved there with out the breaks and secondly that is so often the case these are first companies to leave town when offered a better deal in some other town.

Tax incentives, reduce all of those costs and allow for a new technology to establish a foothold. new technologies should be able to stand on there own, we do not drive cars because car was given a tax breaks, we do not us the PC because it was given a tax breaks.
 
344sarge33rd
      ID: 99331714
      Thu, Aug 14, 2008, 15:44
I use that as an ongoing example of how tax breaks are used. I perosnally, AM opposed to giving ABC Corp tax abatements in CA for closing down their MI plant and building a new one in CA.

Seeing as how energy is a national concern with ties to national infrastructure, I see it as in the feds best interest to see if technologies which are clean, renewable and independent of foreign sources can be introduced. The potential ROI is massive!
 
345Madman
      ID: 230542010
      Thu, Aug 14, 2008, 15:44
The short sighted laise fair energy policies of the last 28 years have bitten us in the ass

Care to provide evidence that our government's involvement in energy has been "laize faire"? From defense department subisdization of oil, to construction of highway infrastructure, to urban-sprawl planning (including CAFE standards), to summer gasoline mixture requirements, to limits on refinery capacity, to the banning of various nuclear options, to billions spent on alternative energy research, to uncountably large intervention in electricity production and distribution, there is no facet of our energy market that government has left untouched.

I'm not arguing for or against those, simply arguing that your simplistic laisez-faire-bad perspective is absolutely irrelevant to our current energy situation. And I am definitely arguing that slothful government regulation and legislation presents the largest obstacle to overcome when considering a change in our energy consumption. I trust the consumers to change their buying habits. And a 3% reduction is gasoline demand is definitely sustainable (although I suspect it will bounce up a bit for the near-term future as gas prices wane). Who knows, we may decide to fill up our tires a bit better and drive more. But I don't trust the government to change to a policy that will be better for the US.
 
346boikin
      ID: 532592112
      Thu, Aug 14, 2008, 15:58
The potential ROI is massive! if true there is no need for tax breaks.
 
347biliruben
      ID: 38751812
      Thu, Aug 14, 2008, 16:09
That return isn't completely measured in dollars. Some of that return is in the societal benefits such as cleaner air, cleaner water, and stronger, safer, diplomatic ties through less reliance on foreign oil.


None of that ends up in the bottom line of the energy company investing in new technologies, but it sure ends up in the bottom line of our societal balance sheet, so perhaps we should subsidize for our direct benefit.

There is also a not-insubstantial risk involved in new technologies, and many companies these days seem to stick to sure things. Subsidies can tip the balance towards taking the risk.
 
348Pancho Villa
      ID: 47161721
      Thu, Aug 14, 2008, 16:13
The factory isn't even built yet. Why I bet it would take ten years for that energy to come online.

Fortunately, Phoenix and Tuscon won't need electricity in 10 years, and those 2,000 construction workers don't need jobs now, since the Phoenix housing market is booming (cough*).
 
349sarge33rd
      ID: 99331714
      Thu, Aug 14, 2008, 16:15
Even taking into accouont, only the dollars and cents....

whatever the number is, which the tax breaks would amount to in terms of dollars and cents; use that as your Federal Investment figure for purpose of determining a direct ROI.

Now, what are the dollar amounts saved via cleaner air and water? Less cleanup needed, fewer national health issues, etc etc. Add that to the return.

Decreased dependence on foreign oil, means fewer imports of oil. A reduction in the trade deficit. Add that to the return.

Taxes paid by that supplier, both during and after the incentives. Add those to the return.

Hopw many jobs created? Income tax paid by those workers. The economic stimulus form those workers daily spending. Add those to the return.


Alternative energy is a matter of national need, security and urgency. A temporary extension of tax incentives to boost that along, is clearly in our national best interest.
 
350Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Tue, Aug 26, 2008, 07:46
Even The Mere Threat Of Drilling Will Bring Down The Price Of Oil
By DON M. CHANCE | Posted Monday, August 25, 2008 4:20 PM PT


One of the most contentious issues of late has been the question of whether increased drilling for oil would reduce the price of oil today.

Certainly increased drilling will not bring an immediate increase in the supply of oil. But many people, even so-called experts, believe that the effect on the pump price would not be felt until the oil is actually at the pump, possibly years later.

In fact, the price will fall well before the first hole is drilled. Even the possibility of increased drilling will bring down the price of oil. It already has.

Almost everyone knows that supply and demand determine price in a market. But that knowledge seldom goes beyond understanding how supply and demand themselves are determined.

The belief that the current quantities demanded and supplied are the sole determinants of price misses an important point. Both current and expected future demand and supply interact to determine the quantity demanded and supplied in the current marketplace.

That is true because oil, and indeed almost everything else, is storable.

When a quantity is storable, the amount a producer will supply and a consumer will demand is not independent of future expectations.

Take the case of Robinson Crusoe, an example used in some economic texts. Crusoe is a simple case because he is both the supplier and the demander.

Stranded on an island with some corn, he might consume all of it in the first year if he expects to be saved in the second. If he does not expect to be saved in the second year, he will consume some of the corn and use the rest as seed corn.

His consumption might also be affected by other factors. If he feels weak, he might consume more today; if he feels strong, he might consume less. Crusoe will hardly ignore his expectations when deciding how much to plant and eat.

Thus, the current price of any storable commodity will be affected by expectations of future supply because producers use those expectations to determine when to bring their product to market.

Oil is an excellent example because it has a long storage life. Every drop of oil consumed is on the market for only a small fraction of the millions of years of its life.

Oil is also inexpensive to store. Futures prices suggest a cost of less than one-half percent a month, a portion of which is the financing cost.

If producers expect increased supply in the future, the incentive to bring oil to market later is reduced.

If storable commodities are affected by expectations of future prices, we might think that nonstorable commodities would be unaffected by expectations. That is true only more or less in theory, because in practice virtually all commodities are storable.

Even a highly perishable product like fresh fish is nonstorable only at the final stage of production, the step between being caught and cooked. Fish are, of course, stored in the water, but producers determine the rate of catch. If world governments declare a moratorium on tilapia fishing to start later, the expectation is of a decreased supply of fresh tilapia.

Even in that case producers will increase the current catch and consumers will increase their current demand, knowing that tilapia will be off the menu soon. Frozen tilapia might even become a reasonable substitute, thereby increasing the effective storage life of the commodity.

Electricity also appears to be essentially a nonstorable commodity, it being consumed almost immediately after being produced. But the production of electricity requires the storage of raw materials.

In short, a pure nonstorable commodity is virtually an academic construct. While some commodities have limited storability, most are storable in some form and therefore are affected by expectations.

One so-called expert has argued that the recent failure of an energy trading firm is what actually brought down oil prices of late. Energy trading firms are intermediaries between producers and retailers and trade contracts for current and future delivery of energy, thereby facilitating risk transfer.

To argue that the failure of one firm in this competitive market would reduce prices would be like arguing that the failure of an insurance company would lower insurance premiums. And if we believe that the failure of an energy trading firm would reduce prices, markets would have to be terribly slow to take several weeks to fully absorb that information into the price.

Expectations that are unrealized will cause a reversal of the initial price impact. If intentions are not backed by actual drilling, prices will rise. The market will tolerate a period of discussion, but if the drilling naysayers win the debate, prices will head up and sharply. The rise and fall of oil prices are likely to mirror this debate.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi is arguably the most powerful woman in America. But if she wants to see her real power, she should bring the drilling issue to a vote. Only a Fed chairman could have so much impact on market prices.

Chance is a professor of finance at Louisiana State University.
 
351Perm Dude
      ID: 497322512
      Tue, Aug 26, 2008, 16:24
We didn't get into this problem because of US drilling policies, and we won't drill our way our of it. Pulling expensive oil out of offshore wells in ten or so years (assuming the wells pan out) in lieu of less expensive oil from elsewhere doesn't seem likely to help, particularly since oil is a globally-traded commodity. There is no evidence that the seven-month global supply that offshore drilling might produce in 10-20 years will be refined and sold in the United States.

That is true because oil, and indeed almost everything else, is storable. Except that it isn't.

A more likely explanation as to the high price of oil is that a record amount of oil is being exported from the US right now. Another reason to get off of it. How about reducing oil consumption by 25% or more in the next ten years, making offshore drilling moot?

Just came across this decent NYT article on the natural gas boomlet.
 
352Mith
      ID: 482583111
      Thu, Apr 29, 2010, 07:22


Whoops!
 
353Mith
      ID: 482583111
      Thu, Apr 29, 2010, 12:22
The Colbert ReportMon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill
www.colbertnation.com
Colbert Report Full EpisodesPolitical HumorFox News
 
354Mith
      ID: 482583111
      Fri, Apr 30, 2010, 08:13
More than a week has passed since the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded 50 miles off the Louisiana coast, killing 11 workers, injuring over a dozen more, and causing a massive oil spill that may eclipse the Exxon Valdez.

Yet the two most prominent political champions of offshore drilling -- Sarah Palin and Michael Steele -- appear not to have uttered a word about the incident.
 
355Pancho Villa
      ID: 29118157
      Fri, Apr 30, 2010, 09:19
Palin and Steele probably sold their BP stock, something I should have done.
 
356Mattinglyinthehall
      ID: 37838313
      Sun, Sep 05, 2010, 17:26
The Republican Who Dared Tell the Truth About America's Looming Oil Disaster
 
357biliruben
      ID: 34435239
      Mon, Sep 06, 2010, 11:15
Interesting article.
 
358The Left Behind
      ID: 66232012
      Tue, Sep 07, 2010, 10:31
$4 gas prices now would pretty much clean off the carcass in our country. Maybe Obama better deliver a serious energy policy and implement it and not cave in to the environmentalists or the oil companies.
 
359The Left Behind
      ID: 66232012
      Mon, Sep 13, 2010, 13:26
While having lunch with a friend he dropped a bomb on me about what to do to have oil prices drop like a stone. Eliminate speculation in the futures market by requiring 10% delivery of oil contracts purchased.
 
360biliruben
      ID: 16105237
      Mon, Sep 13, 2010, 17:40
You think there is a bubble in the spot price of oil due to futures speculation?

What do you do for a living again?
 
361Boldwin
      ID: 46881217
      Mon, Sep 13, 2010, 20:57
That was the story the last time it went thru the roof.
 
362biliruben
      ID: 358252515
      Mon, Sep 13, 2010, 22:49
Soros's story.
 
363biliruben
      ID: 16105237
      Tue, Sep 14, 2010, 00:46
Here's an authoritative explanation I can largely agree with.
 
364The Left Behind
      ID: 66232012
      Tue, Sep 14, 2010, 12:35
Do you deny the ability of futures market speculation to inflate the price of its underlying asset?
 
365biliruben
      ID: 358252515
      Tue, Sep 14, 2010, 12:44
It might influence short-term volatility to fleece rubes with more money than sense. Present company excluded, of course.
 
366Perm Dude
      ID: 5510572522
      Tue, Sep 14, 2010, 12:46
I think you're about six weeks behind the times, TLB. Obama signed legislation to end oil speculation when he signed the Wall Street reform bill back in July.
 
367The Left Behind
      ID: 66232012
      Tue, Sep 14, 2010, 12:58
It does not end speculation. It limits it.
 
368Perm Dude
      ID: 5510572522
      Tue, Sep 14, 2010, 13:13
On the right track though, yes?

It took an oil man leaving the White House for it to happen.
 
369The Left Behind
      ID: 66232012
      Tue, Sep 14, 2010, 13:21
Obama certainly is on the right track when curbing oil speculation. He needs to go farther and end it. Lower oil prices is a very large spending cut for us at home. Oil speculation costs us 300 billion per year
 
371Boldwin
      ID: 4289140
      Tue, Sep 14, 2010, 17:16
I dunno about ending it outright.

I have no problem with SouthWest Airlines gambling right and locking in great fuel prices during the great run-up. I have a bigger problem with Soros' insider moves and ability to talk the prices where he wants them to go.
 
372The Left Behind
      ID: 66232012
      Wed, Sep 15, 2010, 13:01
I should have been more specific Boldwin. Companies with legit direct business interests such as those involved in transportation should be permitted to hedge futures contracts. The pure traders and speculators must be shown the door.
 
373Building 7
      Leader
      ID: 171572711
      Wed, Sep 15, 2010, 17:10
Yes, but Goldman-Sucks does that a lot. Which means they would have to get permission from the government to do it. Which means they would have to give permission from themselves to do it. Which means nobody is going to stop them from doing it.
 
374The Left Behind
      ID: 66232012
      Fri, Sep 17, 2010, 12:57
373 would be funny if it was not true. So will Blankfein be Treasury Secretary in 2012 or 2016? Goldmann has the revolving door at treasury pretty well occupied. If Blankfein has paid his taxes he will be disqualified from the job based on past precedent with this administration.
 
375Boldwin
      ID: 510591420
      Thu, Dec 18, 2014, 12:03
There is a secondary oil boom no one talks about. There are a LOT of small independent investors no one hears about buying old 'used up' oil wells, fracking them back to life...how long their new lease on life, I have no idea. For some reason the majors have no interest [far as I can tell] in this new segment of the oil industry. Perhaps the small guys are more efficient. Maybe the small guys are the only ones willing to fight over the scraps.

In fact there is another wrinkle. When fracked oil wells run out they are 'refracking' them! Doesn't sound like the solution to solve energy shortages for a millenium, but...

Just forget everything you have ever heard about peak oil. If that was ever a 'thing' it won't be one in your lifetime. We have the opposite ATM...an oil glut. 8]

This has been a fun thread. I am thrilled and relieved, upon reviewing it, that I never fell for the 'Peak Oil' meme. Nice to see some Astade involvement way back when.
 
376Boldwin
      ID: 510591420
      Thu, Dec 18, 2014, 17:11
Of interest to me is the current confluence of events.

The Russian economy is very much a one trick pony. Oil. The ruble is crashing as we speak 12/17/14.

Putin is not the sort of person who responds to sanctions and pressure pliantly.

'The Caliphate' is a one trick pony. When governments can't feed their people wars tend to start. Not ever sharia ruled country is as vulnerable as every other, but most will be in major trouble with their incomes slashed in half.

China has a shadow banking system that is crumbling ATM.

I'm reading the book, 'The Death of Money' written by the guy the CIA tapped to design a system to detect threat information in market movements and to head off monetary cyberwars. That is China's battlefield of choice.

China has been hoarding by far the lion's share of the world's gold production for years.

China and Russia have been dumping USA treasuries for quite a while. A tremendous volume of T-bill dumping is being routed thru Belgium to keep the story from getting out and the price from tanking.

Keep that stuff in the back of your mind as you read the news.
 
377Boldwin
      ID: 510591420
      Thu, Dec 18, 2014, 17:23
Add this one...Russia sold off $4.3 billion in gold reserves in just the first week of Dec.
 
378Bean
      ID: 121011511
      Fri, Dec 19, 2014, 12:36
Those Tyson chickens are an addictive habit that the Russian people cant give up it seems.
 
379Boldwin
      ID: 510591420
      Fri, Dec 19, 2014, 12:48
They did. What's your point?
 
380Boldwin
      ID: 510591420
      Fri, Dec 19, 2014, 21:34
China bought $100 Billion of something off the books in Q3. My guesses, Russian oil and fighter jets or warships.
 
381Boldwin
      ID: 510591420
      Wed, Dec 24, 2014, 07:48
If every dark cloud has a silver lining, does every puffy white cloud have a dark lining?

Artificially low interest rates [aka quantitative easing galore] meets the oil glut.

Central planning always screws things up. Because it throws the signals off that markets rely on to maintain their sanity.

Because normally rational savings vehicles like a savings account at a bank offer insanely low returns, savers have been induced to chase after riskier investments. Remember junk bonds? Their BAAaack!

What better place to put your money but in high return bonds to finance undercapitalized wildcat frackers? What with that price of oil seemingly on an ever-climbing sky's-the-limit stairway, what's to worry?

Jump ahead to the times of oil glut. Today the daily production exceeds demand by millions and millions of barrels of oil. Saudi Arabia couldn't price enforce if they wanted to at these over-production levels and the Saudis have been very clear they have no intention of price enforcing this time. In fact they hope the price goes way down temporarily and bankrupts all those undercapitalized wildcat frackers.

Today there is actually talk about $20 a barrel oil! All us consumers get a temporary bailout at the gas pump.

Hello...now comes the dark lining.

Meet Sabine Oil and Gas.

 
382Bean
      ID: 121011511
      Wed, Dec 24, 2014, 12:34
caveat emptor

Why is it called REAL estate?
 
383Pancho Villa
      ID: 2131916
      Wed, Dec 24, 2014, 13:07
Today there is actually talk about $20 a barrel oil!

Meaningless sentence, unsourced and unresearched. It could have been talk by 1st graders.

Global demand will remain way too high to allow for that dramatic a drop. Here is a sane and well researched article about oil futures.

Oil Price forecast 2015-2016
 
384Astade
      ID: 4114492
      Wed, Dec 24, 2014, 14:57
Can you re-post the link?
 
385Boldwin
      ID: 510591420
      Wed, Dec 24, 2014, 15:03
I am not predicting $20 a barrel. I don't want or hope that it does. I meant that serious people are discussing it possibly going to that. I thot my wording accomplished that.

Ready for $20 Oil? - BloombergView

$20 oil wouldn’t force production cut – Saudi oil minister - RT.com

Serious people are throwing the number around so it's not a frivolous idea. I read 100 times as much as I link to and I am not always going to dig thru everything I've read in the last three days to find it and to source it if it isn't the point I'm making, but I do find it interesting offhand.
 
386Boldwin
      ID: 510591420
      Wed, Dec 24, 2014, 15:10
And I'm not buying anyone's prediction unless they detail the actual daily world demand vs supply. I know just two countries that already have 1 million a day plus each, daily oversupply. And then they better explain who is going to cut production.

Until demand equals supply the market is gonna be in 'price discovery' ie freefall.